The most important bit of advice I would give anyone (and it applies to gambling) is to think for yourself or someone else will think for you and that always comes at a price.

So here are a few of the stages.

1. Winning a bunch of money will change my life for the better.
2. The Martingale Progression. (I'm going to be rich)
3. I will find a progression that does work
4. Very abstract rules will make progressions work
4.5 Magical thinking will make mechanical systems work.
5. Mechanical Systems don't work. ( I'm not going to be rich )
6. The discovery of conditions might help in bet selection.
7. Bet selection alone will not work.
8. Win streak conditions are opportunities. (Effectiveness) I can be rich if I want to.

Quote from: Gizmotron on November 21, 2012, 08:20:19 PM
So here are a few of the stages.

1. Winning a bunch of money will change my life for the better.
2. The Martingale Progression. (I'm going to be rich)
3. I will find a progression that does work
4. Very abstract rules will make progressions work
4.5 Magical thinking will make mechanical systems work.
5. Mechanical Systems don't work. ( I'm not going to be rich )
6. The discovery of conditions might help in bet selection.
7. Bet selection alone will not work.
8. Win streak conditions are opportunities. (Effectiveness) I can be rich if I want to.

Good list. 

What's funny (or not) is that there are probably half a dozen of us who took 100 years between us to come to the firm conclusion that step 8 is the way to go.

I just hope there are no more steps! 

If people actually get these stages then I won't try another jump start technique. I was going to demonstrate how a rule based bet selection method would reveal the win streaks. It would be completely mechanical. The player waits for four or five sleeping dozens or columns in a row. You then flat bet the other two active doz/col. This method will show the effectiveness of 4's and of 5's. In 150 there are from 1 to 3 streaks of sleepers that can be nicely effective. This can be a mechanical method. If people can wait for 21 - 60+ spins to place three bets then they can easily do this. The global effect can be a rule also. It would be fun to watch stage 1 - 5 players trying this.

(I'm going to be rich.)

Gizmo,
        You said: 8. Win streak conditions are opportunities.

My question is how can I predict that a streak will come at this stage? Aren't we at same level of indecisiveness always, wherever we make bets?

Quote from: Bally6354 on November 21, 2012, 07:52:18 PM
A lot of the so-called experts on the subject have chopped and changed their ideas around for years.

Here are some authors to look up if you are interested.

Nathaniel Branden.
David D. Burns.
Albert Ellis.
Daniel Gilbert.
Fritz Perls.
Barry Schwartz.
Martin Seligman.
William Styron.
Robert E. Thayer.

The most interesting book I read out of that lot was Fritz Perls 'Gestalt Therapy'.

Personally I reckon they're all a bunch of shysters. 

I'm sure that some people are helped by psychotherapy, but studies have shown that there is no difference between any of the therapies on offer and that the main ingredient of success is the placebo effect. Look at how the number of "mental illnesses" in the DSM have increased over the years:

Year     Number of mental illnesses
1952                112
1968                163
1980                224
1987                253
1994                374

Here are some of them:

Stuttering
Spelling Disorder
Written Expression Disorder
Mathematics Disorder
Caffeine Intoxication/Withdrawal
Nicotine use/Withdrawal
Sibling Rivalry Disorder
Phase of Life Problem

Gimme a break! At this rate, it will soon be "normal" to be mentally ill. Call me a cynic, but it seems that if you can't do maths, you're suffering from a disorder and need help from a mental health professional (who charges $120 per hour).

Quote from: Bayes on November 27, 2012, 09:18:58 AM
Gimme a break! At this rate, it will soon be "normal" to be mentally ill. Call me a cynic, but it seems that if you can't do maths, you're suffering from a disorder and need help from mental health professional (who charges $120 per hour).

LoL, I don't disagree with you Bayes. A lot of the guys I mentioned above completely changed their stance at one point or another to suit the flavour of the day (in other words....keep the research funds coming)

Here about half the children has an menthal disorder, as the shools get more fundings to solve such problems. The increase is sole to the way they fund the education.


(By the way education is free, even university)

Hey,
   from a gambling forum, we are heading towards a hospital.

Quote from: KingsRoulette on November 27, 2012, 10:57:40 AM
Hey,
   from a gambling forum, we are heading towards a hospital.

Nobody gambles here.  They all bet on certainties!! 

And the topic IS relevant.

After all, gambling is a form of mental illness...

Quote from: KingsRoulette on November 27, 2012, 03:10:21 AM
Gizmo,
        You said: 8. Win streak conditions are opportunities.

My question is how can I predict that a streak will come at this stage? Aren't we at same level of indecisiveness always, wherever we make bets?

You can't predict when a winning streak will occur. Obviously you must react quickly when you are in one. You know you are in one. You can't predict how long it will last. So you need to play an agile way. Don't give back your winnings when the house has their win streaks.

Quote from: Gizmotron on November 27, 2012, 11:10:29 PM
You can't predict when a winning streak will occur. Obviously you must react quickly when you are in one.

How do you know it's a winning streak? Please
give an example to illustrate what you mean.

I do think you can perfectly measure winning and losing streaks if you divide the game in CYCLES.

Cycle's spins matching the location's payout (including the wager; as in the "break even" point). i.e. a straight-up number has a 36-spin cycle, a double-street has a 6-spin one and so forth for the rest of the betting locations.

Under this light, you can measure winning and losing streaks by checking how many consecutive cycles has it shown.

...When accounting for large chunks of spins, even numbers with plenty of misses can appear to be "hot" given their raw number of shows, but when measuring things in cycles, you can rapidly determine what's "on" right now (in the current cycle) and also automatically can avoid what is currently non-appearing or cold.

I like it since it is a way to "morph with the game"; and in this game, it is better to learn to be dynamic. A cycle-oriented approach can be of assistance for this.

My 2c.

Regards.

Quote from: VLS on November 28, 2012, 04:38:27 AM
a straight-up number has a 36-spin cycle, a double-street has a 6-spin one and so forth for the rest of the betting locations.

But random outcomes don't follow any cycle you
can depend on.

Quote from: spike on November 28, 2012, 04:30:17 AM
How do you know it's a winning streak? Please
give an example to illustrate what you mean.

Don't ask me Spike. ALL OF YOUR POSTS ALWAYS BEGIN WITH A POLITE QUESTION. AND ALL OF YOUR POSTS ARE ALWAYS DIRECTED AT ME. YOU ARE AN INTERNET TROLL THAT DIRECTS ALL YOUR ACTIVITY AT ATTACKING ME. PLEASE GO AWAY. THIS IS A FORUM THAT HAS NOT BEEN DISRUPTED BY YOU. (YET)

Spike - "You are my project, Gizmo. I never talk about roulette anymore. I only post when I see you post, because you're so full of stuff, such a fraud and con man, and I detest you so completely, I've made it my goal to harass and expose you wherever you try and sell you're stinking nonsense. You have nothing that beats roulette, you never will have anything."