I do not know how to create a poll here but I want to know your opinion in this regard as to which among this you consider the main reason of losses in gambling:
1. Martingale or martingale type progressions
2. Gamblers' fallacy
3. Martingale+gamblers' fallacy
4. Over-expectation or greed
5. Variance or delay/irregularities in our chosen bet
6. Bad luck
7. All of the above are equally liable.

I think #7

Also want to add failure to exploit temporary biases by dealer signature

8.  Not knowing when to stop  (Playing without a pre-defined stop-loss)

in my case:
4. Over-expectation or greed

i think this would be equal to:
8.  Not knowing when to stop  (Playing without a pre-defined stop-loss)

I think number 4 is a biggie!

A lot of players think they can take the casino home with them every night.

People who make money out of gambling have a more long term approach.

There was a professional gambler in the U.K by the name of Phil Bull in the 60's.

He worked on the fact that he could make 5% profit each year on his turnover.

He would need to wager 1 million in a year just to make 50k. (In today's money)


Think more longer term and try and set some kind of sensible targets or have a few goals you would like to achieve through your gambling. This can provide a bit of discipline which is needed.

I agree about no. 4. In his book "Full Time Gambler", Louis G. Holloway said that the main cause of failure was "miscalculation". Most don't do the necessary research and aren't aware of the risks.

 in my case:
4. Over-expectation or greed

i think this would be equal to:
8.  Not knowing when to stop  (Playing without a pre-defined stop-loss)

Exactly, If you keep playing even in bad times that it will recover soon, it is overexpectation. Similarly, not quitting even after winning in beginning is greed or overexpectation.

I think all of them to a certain degree. But 4 and 5 mainly. Fluctuations can be a killer!

# 9.

Not covering Zero playing D/C.

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Butch Cassidy: Alright, I'll jump first.


Sundance Kid: No.


Butch Cassidy: Then you jump first.


Sundance Kid: No, I said.


Butch Cassidy: What's the matter with you?


Sundance Kid: What about the house edge?


Butch Cassidy: Are you crazy? The dispersion will probably kill you.


Sundance Kid: Oh, stuff...



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Hey Monaco....is that what they call....going off a Fiscal-Cliff !!

10. keep changing strategies.

I think it's a good idea to stick with something and refine it as you go along.

Starting from scratch every other week with something new is not the way to go.

Imagine if you could add a couple of % improvement every so often through new knowledge and experience. This would gradually take you through the ranks as a player.

Funny no-one's suggested this:

11. The house edge.

Nah, that can't be right! 

But you really should avoid bad bets like the Tie in Baccarat, some Craps bets, and (ahem) the double-zero wheel.

# 12.

Playing outside bets before the dealer has spun the wheel.(just my paranoia).

Quote from: Bayes on November 27, 2012, 09:24:36 AM
I agree about no. 4. In his book "Full Time Gambler", Louis G. Holloway said that the main cause of failure was "miscalculation". Most don't do the necessary research and aren't aware of the risks.

It's impossible for me to calculate incorrectly. #13. By not playing the current conditions. There's no calculating or guessing while evaluating the conditions. They are what they are.