1. There is no bet selection that is superior to any other bet selection. That is to say, all selections are the same.
2. There is no money management procedure that will win.
So, then, what are we left with? Clairvoyance? Voodoo? Oh, yes---luck!
For any bet selection to have merit, it must assume that spins that have come effect spins that will come. The past effects the future. (In roulette, there is no present. Well, none that matters anyway.) For any money management procedure to work, it must turn a negative expectation into a positive one. Can't be done.
So where do we turn?
I think a little Voodoo is a good thing. I once made the statement: Numbers do strange things. If they didn't, they'd do even stranger things.
Why does a number get hot? Why does a number sleep for 200 spins? Why is it when a sleeper awakens, it hits more than it should--as if to say, "Dang!! I've got the catch the pack!"?
Just ramblin'.............
TwoCatSam
Sounds about right to me Sam although I don't think I've been 'lucky' for 8 months so watching the marquee and making educated guesses has served me well, Bayes has been playing for a long time too although different to what I do but similar in the MM department, now Drazen is playing the same(ish) as Bayes and reporting good results too, so that's 3 that are constantly winning their sessions.
QuoteThere is no money management procedure that will win.
I totaly agree with this Sam, my reasoning is this, we know there's no 'mechanical' method/system that can win every time we use it as it relies on set actions random is none mechanical, its different all the time, so how can we expect to use a mechanical progression? simple answer, we can't. This is and will remain a bone of contention across the gamblers world as 99% are too lazy to think/concentrate they just want to follow a set route --- a mechanical route --- maybe that gives them a perfect reason when they loose and they don't have to blame themselves, I don't know but the sooner they stop chasing anything mechanical and work with random the sooner they should stop losing.
Drazen is one person others should look up to, for about 3 months he has been PM'ing both myself and Bayes, when I last saw Bayes we talked about him becoming an internet stalker as we kept getting PM's from him LOL, I don't know how much Bayes replied to him but I know I replied a lot to him, look where he is now, he seems to have worked it out and is getting ahead, his last few posts seem to say he is well pleased with himself for working hard at it, he also stated, when asked, it is difficult to explain, I've said the exact same, so has Bayes, in essence you either see it or you don't.
QuoteWhy does a number get hot? Why does a number sleep for 200 spins? Why is it when a sleeper awakens, it hits more than it should--as if to say, "Dang!! I've got the catch the pack!"?
I think on a real wheel this is just coincidence, some will say it isn't (leave them to their fantasy of wanting to believe) but think for yourself on a real live roulette wheel
A) there is nothing that 'could' be telling it to catch up
B) the wheel has no memory so it doesn't know what it's already done
RNG on the other hand is a computer program that is 'told' to do something, it is also verified by governing bodies, how? we will never know but an RNG has to perform properly to be allowed so if an RNG number sleeps for 600+ spins the chances are high it will hit a few times after the initial wake up, I've seen it, you've seen it and others have too.
Note: any reference I make to RNG is purely betvoyager as that is the only RNG we can trust as they generate the numbers before you play, not while you play.
QuoteJust ramblin'.............
Yeah .............. me too
Quote from: TwoCatSam on May 26, 2013, 12:05:50 AM
1. There is no bet selection that is superior to any other bet selection. That is to say, all selections are the same.
2. There is no money management procedure that will win.
Well Sam there is no bet selection that is superior then any other in terms that it can win flat bet (unless is based on physics) But I believe that there is "superior" in terms of lower variance, and that is just enough for us to win in the end, and at that point your second statement becomes valid or true too (or becomes false actually and gets positive meaning lol) . They are closely correlated. Actually Bayes says that even simple DBL (decision before last) results with lower variance then playing one side continuously. So I say too that not all BS are same (at least in terms of drawdown)
You mentioned few days ago something about how people will rush onto something like lion on cabbage. And you were right.. I am more meat fan. I rushed onto it like hungry lion onto antelope and using it for a long time ago actually. I was playing with it, adapting it, twisting it with lot of trial and error experiments until I found point at which I feel safe enough to play for now. In its safer variant I pulled out 7 out of 11 Bayses horror sessions. Incredible but true. That is one of the best progressions I have seen and with some work around it, you could get extra safety glass.
I still never underestimate what could happen and it will take me some time more to build confidence and practice to higher level. But start was good. I am now at 56 $.
Best
Drazen
We can not pick better or worse bet selection but can make strategies that can fight extreme momentary variance and money management techniques that can handle the bad cases. Nothing can work in all probabilities.
Great post Sam....and great replies. Not enough of this type of discussion.
I set off on a simple task 3 years ago after a works trip to a casino.
As I do with everything, I decided to find out more.
There is so much more than I bargained for. Its insane really.
I see it this way:
Imagine a plumber gets a call out and the customer has a strange request.
The plumber can only bring 5 tools into the job, and he doesn't get to know what the actual job is before he walks into the room, with his 5 tools.
his been a plumber 40 years, and selects his 5 tools using his knowledge of all the common plumbing jobs he has been on.
4 times out of 5 he will get the job done one way or another. 1 time in 5 he will not have the right tool for the situation.
As good as he is, and with all his knowledge, he will get caught out now and again.
We have to attack random with some tools, but we don't know what the job is 100%. As Sam said, there is no "now". Which ever clever way we choose, we will choose the wrong tools now and again.
Great replies, gentlemen. Thanks to one and all.
Now let's tack in a different direction. There is one thing I know for sure about the flow of occurrences. It can be mathematically proved and graphed.
You will have a wave which goes one direction for a time and then another. Even RB proves this in the shortest possible time. But we know that groupings of R and groupings of B are common. Here is the proverbial tool the plumber must have: When we see B is that the end of the Bs or is that the beginning of a run of Bs? We positively know, at some time, we will get BBB or more. And then RRR or more.
Some say if you have too many flops, you will get a run. When, exactly?
I feel the reason THE THREE MUSKETEERS, Superman, Drazen and Bayes win may be actually due to a form of clairvoyance. As such, it can't be taught. To bet or not to bet, that is the question. Perhaps you gents just get a "feel" you should bet. Maybe from looking at the marquee?
As to finding a mechanical method, I take pleasure in the trying. I fully know what I'm up against. And I'm not yet sure it can't be done. One would think that in 200 years of roulette, someone would have done it. We can't be 100% sure someone hasn't as it is impossible to prove or disprove the unknown. This is why I respect ignatus. He just doesn't let failure phase him!
In almost every case, the person who succeeds is the one who quits failing! Who succeeds on the first try?
TwoCat
What an interesting analogy of the plumber. If you could just get that what earns 4 out of 5 with the quality of receivables it would be magnificent.
Maybe you have achieved this goal?
Thank you.
Quote from: wannawin on May 26, 2013, 11:29:00 AM
What an interesting analogy of the plumber. If you could just get that what earns 4 out of 5 with the quality of receivables it would be magnificent.
Maybe you have achieved this goal?
Thank you.
I win more than I lose. I put 200 into the casino per month and come away with 260-300. that's been 3 good weeks and a bad one for some time. Sometimes 2 bad 2 good, sometimes 4 good, sometimes 3 bad....but over the year, I am in profit.
I only play 50p chips. i only play 1u chips if I have won a bit.
If I have a method, its to shrink my options as I do bad, and increase them as I do good. i believe in MM. i believe in Voodoo. i believe in luck....but most of all, I believe in change. Changing continuously at the table. Why play Finales when Finales arnt showing?. Why play repeaters when they seem to be forming just 2's?. Why play 8 train when 2 has hit 4 times in 9 spins?.
You have to know 10 good ideas and know when to play them. I can't describe how to know.
As for your second post Sam,
Every idea is mechanical. But how long to play it for? When to play it, and why are you playing it in this particular set of random numbers.
Why would I go in a Butchers and ask for a newspaper? Now I am in a Butchers, I may as well ask for sausages. (too many analogies spoil the broth ^-^ )
Quote from: Turner on May 26, 2013, 11:50:27 AM
i believe in MM. i believe in Voodoo. i believe in luck....but most of all, I believe in change. Changing continuously at the table. Why play Finales when Finales arnt showing?. Why play repeaters when they seem to be forming just 2's?. Why play 8 train when 2 has hit 4 times in 9 spins?.
You have to know 10 good ideas and know when to play them. I can't describe how to know.
Roulette apostles creed.
Quote from: TwoCatSam on May 26, 2013, 11:26:50 AM
I feel the reason THE THREE MUSKETEERS, Superman, Drazen and Bayes win may be actually due to a form of clairvoyance. As such, it can't be taught. To bet or not to bet, that is the question. Perhaps you gents just get a "feel" you should bet. Maybe from looking at the marquee?
TwoCat
It's absolutely not clairvoyance, and I don't get a "feel" for it either. Every bet I make is based on probabilities, and yes I do look at the marquee, but I use a software tracker which gives me a W/L registry for various bet selections. The one which Drazen uses is perfectly good enough for this, it displays 6 marquees of the even chances going back 40 decisions and also gives you some stats. I uploaded it to the other forum some months ago and over 100 members have downloaded it, but whether they understand how to use it is a different matter.
Many would dismiss the way I play as pure gambler's fallacy, but I've been playing this way for well over year and never fail to make profit in a session - NEVER. Superman has said he's never lost a session and is up over 20,000 units, and it seems that Drazen is well on the way too, and I'm sure that none of us are particularly gifted in the psychic department (if there even is such a thing).
The main obstacle IMO is the something-for-nothing mentality, all too common among those attracted to gambling. Think about it; would you expect to earn a living without investing some time and effort in learning a skill? most people spend years preparing for a career or a trade, why should consistent earning through this particular avenue be any different? or perhaps it's not the actual work involved which puts people off but the fact that it isn't a GUARANTEED wage, or maybe people have subconscious barriers they put up which prevents them from success, because there are many societal pressures against making money from speculation. Some religious types think it's a sin, it's not an honest days work etc, so don't underestimate the psychological reasons why most fail. But that's something you have to work out on your own.
Quote from: Bayes on May 26, 2013, 12:53:35 PMSome religious types think it's a sin
The hypocrisy of the church is blatant in the theme of gambling.
QuoteRecently in a southern city a young man was canvassing the community selling chances on $25.00 to be given away by local church of which the boy was a member. After carefully learning from the youngster the facts, one of his contacts asked him, "Isn't that gambling?" The reply was, "Not if I do it for the church".
They also say that taking out insurance is not a form of gambling because you do not bet to win. Only win if you lose. The business of life insurance used to be a macabre game of betting. They used to bet that anyone is not going to die before a certain date.
Then it became a less macabre form of gambling with laws such as The Life Assurance Act 1774 (
also known as the Gambling Act 1774)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_Assurance_Act_1774 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_Assurance_Act_1774)
Quote from: Bayes on May 26, 2013, 12:53:35 PM
. I uploaded it to the other forum some months ago
hi Bayes,
Can you please upload it here or post a link to the thread on the other forum.
Thank you
Turner is right/which I was preaching lately/
Swapping the mehods/live table/or swapping the tables/same method/
doing it in cycles......is the unswer...to me,anyhow.
Cinema betting should be play thatway also.
Bayes
You seem offended. My apologies if that's so.
Carefully reading your post......................
What I'm hearing you say about yourself, Drazen and Superman is this: You use past results to decide where to bet. Is that fair? If it is, then that is tantamount to saying that past results effect future results. If I'm in error there, would you explain?
If, in fact, past results effect future results, can we say the wheel has some sort of "memory"? Or something that acts like a memory?
I once read this: The wheel has no memory but we must treat it as if it did.
Again, sorry for stepping on your statistical toes. (Now that was TwoCat humor!)
Sam
In my humble opinion and experience:
Wheel and ball has no memory but since every number has its proportional opportunity/expectancy(1/37) to win, in every spin, every number tends to reach close to its break even gradually. Same principle applies to each and every bet of the game. For example, if you bet say 1st dozen, the combined probability of 12 numbers of 1st dozen to hit in one spin will be 12/37. Unless the wheel is biased one, gradually every bet will even out at some point of time or other. In short run, however, you can predict nothing. There may be 10 blacks in 10 spins because randomness means without any defined order and the 10 blacks win may look strange to you but it is merely 5-10 different numbers on the wheel that have randomly hit at one small period.
The wheel and ball has very good long term memory but it suffers from Short term memory loss.
Quote from: Blood Angel on May 26, 2013, 02:06:10 PM
hi Bayes,
Can you please upload it here or post a link to the thread on the other forum.
Thank you
http://www.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=9623.msg81271#msg81271 (http://www.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=9623.msg81271#msg81271)
Here it is my friend
My best advice is that you shouldn't "chase" anything for too long if start to go bad.
I attached screenshot from my today's sessions. Look yellow marque on the right. Sequence of 28 losses and just 2 wins. This is the hardest as it gets!
Be carefull and good luck :cheer:
Drazen
Did U make those wins, with a Neg Progression, or Flat betting?
and.............if I may ask, are U betting 3 EC's at once on this game?
I can see the 0.10cents chip is raised, so is that your base level or bet?
Thanks for the screen shot.
Interesting tracker U have.........is it widely available or one U made/had made for Urself?
chris
Huh Chrisbis my friend ??? don't you see the link? :glasses:
0.10 is my starting bet chip. In that horror sequence I lost only 2 bets, but later I got winnings from ambush ;)
I am now over 59 $
I am using negative progression, mild dough.
Best
Drazen
Sorry my friend, thought that RF.cc link was an original question!!
unintelligent ain't eye!
Mild dough eh.................mmmm!
great extension of the English language there! lol
I hear U are now one of three reported- winning consistently.....!
Well done, are U available for weddings, birthdays, bar vitzmass, christenings?
I hopefully have two christenings to attend next year!
Yes, I am going to be a grand-daddy too! (two even!)
Anyways.......................what are U playing to win consistently?
I'm varying my play a lot these days, but BV RNG only....!
Oh really nice. Let me congratulate you on becoming grand daddy then :cheer: It is probably one the best feelings adult person can experience.
When your children become mature parents, then you know you succeed in one of the most important goals in life :)
About devils game.
I would lie If I would say I am not really flattered they put me in category with Bayes and Superman, but it seems I am keeping up to make some earnings without pushing my hot buttons. At least for now ;)
Feeling is even better when free money is invested. Casinos money. And in my world, 60$ as I have now, is my 3-4 months pocket money worth. (So you bet progressions must be "mild" anyway LOL)
I got 50$ which I intended to deposit and take the bonus. And I was thinking to play it slowly but surely, as I am not in a rush anyhow to withdraw, so I would wager it eventually (or been busted lol). I had double chance for free actually, as If something unpredictable would happen I would stop at -50$.
In my testings I have never experienced DD higher then 300 units so 1000 chips was a fair deal to try twice in worst case.
My casino account was in € currency and I asked customer support can I change currency in $ to get more chips as planned. As € is higher value currency then $.
They said that is not a problem and that can be arranged as long 0.00 is at balance. So I transferred money to moneybookers and downloaded the casino. I contacted customer support about changing currency. That took 10-15 minutes and they said they have to create me a new account and I got new username and password.
Even before operater gave me my new account details over chat, I got email hit in my mailbox, as I get almost instantly notifications in mozilla when I get some e-mail in one of my electronic post boxes.
That was Joyland casino sending me new username and password and on my surprise 25$ free no deposit welcome bonus was attached with new account. Surprise was as I actually wasn't new player there... I don't know is that mistake or what but I asked operater to confirm can I withdraw that money ATM. Positive answer slapped.
Actually they are very generous about bonuses. If you are their player and playing through some time, they give you free bonus now and then. Even when you are winning actually... :nod: Very nice of them.
(huh did this sounded like I am advertising their casino? :scared: )
I said to myself to hell all, lets try with this. It is not 1000 chips but you didn't dropped much more then this in worst case. You have a chance and there is much less pressure as it is free money.
So I started, and now I am where I am. Every session is for itself and every enter in the casino is new fight. I put lot of efforts into training and skills for the fight. I am very well armored and challenging opponent in the arena now.
So we will see. I still never underestimate this beautiful game and enjoy so much playing it. You wouldn't believe how much. But live tables only. Too bad this can't work in real casino with me there lol RNG maybe one day. But later then sooner.
Best
Drazen
Hi Drazen
Thank you very much for the link. Ill have a long hard think about what you guys are doing ( or at least what I suspect your doing).
Quote from: TwoCatSam on May 26, 2013, 06:40:15 PM
You use past results to decide where to bet. Is that fair? If it is, then that is tantamount to saying that past results effect future results. If I'm in error there, would you explain?
If, in fact, past results effect future results, can we say the wheel has some sort of "memory"? Or something that acts like a memory?
Hi Sam,No, you don't need to assume that past results affect future results, nor that there is any memory. You've noticed it yourself, it's just the nature of random to cycle and each bet selection will have its own peaks and troughs. What I do isn't any kind of "prediction", it's just the most logical way IMO to avoid the run from hell, and there's no mystery about it.Take a look at that screenshot which Drazen posted showing only 2 wins in the last 28 decisions. How hard would it be, using an appropriate progression if necessary, to make a few units having observed that run? Chances are very good that the NEXT 28 spins will not be so severe (regression to the mean). If when you start betting the losses continue, just hold off until things start to pick up. With the right progression which needn't be a marty or anything like it, you will recoup any minor losses WHEN things turn around, and they don't need to swing 180 degrees the other way for you to profit. Just make a few bets (even 1 unit profit is enough), then rinse and repeat when another opportunity comes along.Some say that the trend is your friend, and that it's better to go with the flow (bet for what is happening rather than against it), but in my experience it's just not reliable enough as a strategy. If you enter the game at or near the observed "limit" of what random outcomes will throw at you, there are only 3 things that will happen in the near future: (1), Things can level off to around 50:50; (2), Things can turn around and go in your favor, or (3), Things can continue to go against you, but not so severely as only 2 wins in 28 spins. (1) and (2) are no problem, and (3) can be managed with sharp MM. You don't get this when following the trend or any other kind of pattern selections because the run from hell can occur, no matter how often you switch or "go with the flow", it can still happen, and much more often than you might think (the "whipsaw" effect). I actually do switch around a lot in my play, but the principle "trigger" for me is always to bet against the deviation continuing, and strong deviations are going on all the time if you know what to look for.That's it. No clairvoyance, no voodoo! BTW, there's something seriously screwed with the font sizes...
Quote from: Bayes on May 27, 2013, 05:48:37 PM
No, you don't need to assume that past results affect future results
Why is it people can look at past results of the stock
market or past results of football games or past results
of rainfall and never once think, gee, these don't effect
future results, they must be useless. They aren't useless
at all, they give us a guide as to what might happen in
the future. But not past roulette spins, why, they're stuff,
you're an unintelligent if you look at them. Whatever...
Bayes
That was quite a post and I thank you for it. I have read it twice and will read it several more times. For those who stumble in the dark, even the smallest of lights is welcome.
Sam
Excellent post Jules. :applause:
@spike
You wrote: "But not past roulette spins, why, they're stuff, you're an unintelligent if you look at them."
Stock market history plots the progress of fear and greed based on identifiable economic factors.
History repeats so it's worth looking back for that and for other obvious reasons. Obvious reasons include looking for -- and following -- trends, of course.
Roulette results are random. No fear/greed factors affect the ball's outcome.
But there are discernable patterns which experienced players look for and exploit.
No idiocy involved -- so watch your language and choice of words in future.
Calling people idiots if they do something you disagree with is NOT the way to behave on this forum.
Heed this Warning...
Just happened to read the entire post! Was with grandkids over the long weekend. So much fun!
Now before I add my two cents here, a bit of background of me as I haven't introduced myself to anyone around here. I used to work for Cammegh in my working days. For people who don't know, we produce roulette wheels. Yes, roulette wheels. I graduated through the ranks there and retired as a director. For close to 2-3 years, my job was a wheel balancing expert, advicing and supporting casinos on ensuring that the wheels are balanced. There are various complex methods that we use to determine whether the wheel is balanced or not from physical inspections to running the spins produced through a number of tests.
One of the tests is on standard deviations. Standard deviations not only on the numbers, but on every playing position. I often hear people say that wheel don't have memory. Our job was to induce memory into the wheel to ensure that a balance is produced. We treat wheels which don't exhibit memory capabilities and produce balanced behaviours as outlaws and detain them :) They see their way out of the casinos so that their banks are not broken.
That experience has taught me a lesson that there is nothing called gamblers fallacy when things are approached scientifically with an expectancy of deviation not continuing on a long term. Casino's determination and manufacturers will to keep them balanced has created a whole new world which can be dominated by people who show patience and discipline to track the spins to go into balance. What Bayes and drazen are following is absolutely one of the methods to beat a balanced wheel.
Also, we cannot ignore the fact that there is a thin line that separates art from science. As Sam rightly said, it is a premonition or in my words an art to deduce what science tells us and get our playing positions right.
I shall close with an interesting anecdote, I used to read the methods from our sister forums and run them on my machines to see whether they are exhibiting a behaviour which is balanced (result in a no win, no loss position on flat betting :)) ). That's when my engagement with these forums started :) and am relishing it.
Great discussion thread Sam!
GG
If we were playing post thread poker, that was akin to a royal flush!!
Turner
Quote from: Marshall Bing Bell on May 28, 2013, 08:32:09 AM
Yeah, except for the ace up the sleeve. :thumbsup:
Skakus....the post originally started....On face value,....but i removed it.
GreatGrampa,
Nice post. I was actually going to say something similar regarding tests. There are a whole bunch of statistical tests specifically designed to find out whether a hypothesis has some evidential support or whether the result you got is down to chance. It makes me laugh when the "experts" say that the wheel has no memory and that you could get, say, 100 reds in a row, therefore looking at past spins is a big waste of time because the past gives no clues as to what the future may be. But as you say, assuming a wheel is fair (not biased), there are regular and exploitable patterns in roulette (and in all games with fixed odds), and these patterns are exactly what the statistical tests rely on for their effectiveness. Or they will concede that yes there are regularities, but because of the law of large numbers you can't possibly rely on them in the relatively short sequences of spins which you observe in any session at the casino. Wrong again, it doesn't take long at all for the "laws" of probability to assert themselves, at least approximately and within parameters which any savvy player can take advantage of. It may not be enough to guarantee you'll win flat betting, but it's certainly enough to come out with a profit using smart MM.
Quote from: Bayes on May 28, 2013, 09:46:34 AM
It may not be enough to guarantee you'll win flat betting, but it's certainly enough to come out with a profit using smart MM.
Toughest nut to crack :)
Quote from: TwoCatSam on May 26, 2013, 12:05:50 AM
1. There is no bet selection that is superior to any other bet selection. That is to say, all selections are the same.
2. There is no money management procedure that will win.
So, then, what are we left with? Clairvoyance? Voodoo? Oh, yes---luck!
I am sticking with my position that there are superior vs inferior bet selections and that when linked with proper money management and a proper bankroll that you can consistently outpace the house. Luck certainly helps...but if you consistently beat the HE would it not be the well prepared player that is triumphant?
Being good at anything is a matter of experience and proper preparation...many here are true students of the game and I believe there are more overall winners than people are giving credit.
That being said...of the thousand people that sit near me in any given year at a table...I would wager (and I am a betting man) that less than 2% have truly examined the game sufficiently to have a true chance of consistently winning.
Just my opinion
Over the years I have read that whoever speaks about roulette is always mentioning famous house edge and how is impossible to beat the game due to that fact. I am sure deviations are much bigger problem in this game.
Lets take most simple example of playing even chances. Imagine that you have method that can somehow obtain ideal sequence giving you LWLWLWLWLWLW all the time. Zero or house edge dictates that we can't win flat bet in the long run, but would you mind for that when you could apply any simple negative progression like D Alembert and actually very easy being able to overcome losses plus that negative house edge which would give you extra loss from time to time. I think not :)
Best
Drazen
RK.....seriously.....in 2 YEARS.....at same casino....i noticed one guy play 2 dozens and a corner in the 3rd doz.
Yes it's a cr.ap idea but its the nearest I've seen someone actually playing a system
the rest select bets like a builder putting salt on his fish and chips. 1 guy in 2 years.
Quote from: Drazen on May 27, 2013, 01:40:55 PM
http://www.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=9623.msg81271#msg81271 (http://www.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=9623.msg81271#msg81271)
Here it is my friend
My best advice is that you shouldn't "chase" anything for too long if start to go bad.
I attached screenshot from my today's sessions. Look yellow marque on the right. Sequence of 28 losses and just 2 wins. This is the hardest as it gets!
Be carefull and good luck :cheer:
Drazen
I've read the explanation given by Bayes, but I'm not sure I fully understand what I'm looking at here, & what the L/W columns exactly represent.
For example, your 28 losses & 2 wins are for which selection, or is it a combination of selections?
I've played around with it & the W/L registry history seems to change as new results are input, & sometimes it prompts a bet on black, black wins, but an L appears in the column..
If we see say H/31 (see attached), long lines of L's, this isn't actually 12 Losses in a row for the EC at the top of the column is it? I get the feeling I'm missing something obvious here??
[attach=1]
Any extra explanation would be much appreciated!
Well L/W registry is changing when those check boxes aren't marked. Because program is always displaying bet with lowest % of wins for particular betselection.
Letter always tells you what you should bet for a win on next spin.
When you mark that checkbox it means that from that point program will be monitoring only that betselection until you mark it off and press next spin. Then again bet with lowest % of wins will be displayed.
Now it is up to you what you will do with the L/W registry and how you will play it, and how strong deviation you will seek and how to fight with it.
It isn't kind of a "system" where I can say to you, search precisely this and that with tracker and you ll be fine. It really isn't, and that was biggest problem for me to understand too.
C1 numbers is BS "number of spins without double win" left marques, and 40 spins there is 3.0 std for that BS for example. When it is marked and you get 2 wins in a row, count sets to 0 and counts spins without double from that point again until you mark it off and press next spin.
For the left marques where you see the numbers for example B/25 O/30 L/28 is percent of wins in last 40 spins. 25% is 10 wins in 40 spins or 3.0 STD.
I did my best mate, although Bays-es explanation is better definitely. Don't know...
I hope I helped at least a little.
All this software does if showing you stats, how you will use them is up to you. It isn't created for rigid mechanical play.
Best
Drazen
cheers Drazen
I need more practice with it, & will keep reading your notes & those from Bayes.
I've started using it as a guide (no system!) but sometimes it throws up decisions & I'm not sure why..
Just need to get my head around it.
thanks for your help :thumbsup:
Hi Everyone
I agree with u Turner I've seen a guy playing for more than two years at B&M casinos. He only plays double dozens using about 10 € per dozen
for relatively short period of time; He has no pens, no paper, does no written tracking as such. I never seen him lost; He makes about 200 - 300 €
per session; he then goes to another nearby casino doing wash, rinse and repeat. What's his secret......?? Don't have a clue.
May be, just may the guy you are taling about and the one I'm talking about went to the same school.......lol ;-)
Cheers
Rouletta
Quote from: monaco on May 28, 2013, 04:44:06 PM
I've started using it as a guide (no system!) but sometimes it throws up decisions & I'm not sure why..
monaco,
You'll find it easier to understand what's going on if you check one of the "fix" boxes. The reason why it apparently gives a L when you're expecting a W (or vice versa) is because the program automatically updates and sorts the bet selections when another BS has a lower % of wins, and it does this every spin. So for example if the R/B column is unchecked and you're supposed to bet B for a WIN, and then enter number 22, then you'd expect a W to appear in that column, BUT if the program has found another BS with a lower winning % after you clicked the 22, the current W/L registry will be replaced by the updated bet selection, in which case the pattern in the marquee will be different, and you may get a L where you were expecting a W. If however the "fix RB" box is checked, you shouldn't get any surprises because that particular bet selection (and therefore the W/L registry) will be fixed. Hope that helps.
Yep, think it's finally sinking in.
So amongst other things, you could maybe 'fix' a box for a few spins while you bet on a particular selection, then untick it after you've played it out & move on to look for another opportunity..
There's a lot of useful information there – thanks.
What is the selections you measuring 3.0 STD upon ... curios ...
Cheers
Quote from: monaco on May 29, 2013, 10:54:36 AM
So amongst other things, you could maybe 'fix' a box for a few spins while you bet on a particular selection, then untick it after you've played it out & move on to look for another opportunity..
Exactly, that was the idea behind being able to "fix" a particular BS. :thumbsup:
QuoteWhat is the selections you measuring 3.0 STD upon ... curios ...
Very simple: for any EC there are 2
n different permutations in any sequence of length
n, and the program uses an array which contains all 1024 different permutations of a sequence of length 10. So RBBRBRRRRR, BRRBRBRRRR, etc. The bet selection is just to play each sequence over and over from beginning to end, and if a spin matches the particular element of the sequence you are on, it records a Win, otherwise, it records a Loss. e.g. for R B B R B R B B B R, the first bet is R, if number 5 hits, you record a W. Next spin you move to the next element which is a B, so that is your selection. If the next number is 23, you record a Loss. This is done for each sequence - all 1024 of them and also for the Odd/Even and High/Low sequences, giving a total of 3072 bet selections. Each BS has its own array which records the corresponding Wins and Losses, and for the marquees on the right these are sorted every spin in order of the least number of wins. For the marquees on the left, the W/L registries are sorted by the number of losses since two wins in a row.
I think you mention that for me a long time ago ,,, thanks now i know ...
Cheers
Quote from: Albalaha on May 26, 2013, 10:27:04 AM
We can not pick better or worse bet selection but can make strategies that can fight extreme momentary variance and money management techniques that can handle the bad cases. Nothing can work in all probabilities.
This is my thread; my topic! The agreement was I would not post on your threads and you would not post on mine. I have not posted on any thread of yours, but you have on mine.
Let's see you lie your way out of this one!
Hello gents
Please I would like to say something for the last time as I was assured by few people lately how my way of play is nothing but the fallacy.
OK I am attaching screenshot of my account ATM. It is the same account with which I started and nothing was deposited or withdrawn in the meantime.
If you will notice it is now very nice sum of money comparing to initial start bank of 25$ or 250 units bank as I started with 0.10$ chip as a base.
Just this morning I was at 170.00 and positive difference you see is my today's one and a half hour session profit. I haven't lost single session by now and I played over 100 of them. Shorter like mini sessions or longer ones.
All I can say is that this works even better then I was imagining successful play, but that is also due to my way of punting the money.
I really don't have big DD-s and it is very nice and pleasant play. If you add to this one`s passion for watching ball jumping and getting into the pocket, you are getting almost orgasmic feeling in the end O:-)
I already gave here enough clues and explanations for someone to understand, but I don't intend to put money directly in your pocket. Please don't even ask me that.
I had even less help then you are having now with all this.
Good things should be deserved anyhow, my philosophy.
Good luck to you all :rose:
Drazen
Hi Drazen,
Good work. :thumbsup:
I was just wondering whether you took the free sign-up bonus when you opened this account? I was looking at their T&C and it seems that 1) playing roulette only contributes 25% to paying off the wagering requirement, and 2)
QuotePlease note: A player may make only one withdrawal of any winnings earned using a free sign-up bonus, and this withdrawal is limited to a maximum amount of $/€/£ 200. Any remaining winnings will be deleted from the player's account, upon making this one-time withdrawal request up to such maximum amount.
So it seems to me that you could be playing for an awfully long time in order to satisfy the x99 wagering requirement and yet the most you would be able to withdraw is $200. :-\
Yes Bayes that is correct. When I started to play I actually recklessly take this offer without realizing at first how unfair actually is.
There was saying "free no deposit" so I though it is free as I have in the past experienced in this casino few times that they give honestly FREE bonus which you can actually withdraw at the moment. No any obligations at all.
And I was in this belief for this too for some time, until I wanted to reward myself by withdrawing some money and affording nice going out to myself :beer:
Then operater told me that I still have wagering requirements to obligate before withdrawing. I said OK, what are those, and thinking how those jackals fooled me, but what can I do now except fighting with that bonus. I sighed and said to myself: you have to be patient that is all. I actually knew from before that wagering requirements for all bonuses here are about 20 times of bonus and wager and that each bet on roulette counts only 25% toward wagering unit.
But then ice cold shower wet me. When I looked at terms of this bonus my lower jaw just hit the floor. It had to be 99 times wagered bonus amount and still only those 25% wagering units were counted for roulette. I couldnt darn belive. Every casino offers nothing but slavery terms for bonuses, but this one like this???
I took a paper and pencil and did the math. 25x99=2475/25% ( or x4 more in other words) = 9900$ of placed bets in total effectively.
So bear in mind that I play with 0.10 chips and I don't have write a single letter about this.. :footinmouth:
Plus last term of that agreement was that I can only withdraw maximum of 200$ of total amount of money I earned after wagering that bonus. So I can earn 10 000$ they will give me only 200$...
But I have trick for this too. Will it work, we will see.
As I play with Lapartage rule they must give me half of my loss back when zero hits. So what I plan to do is when (If) I break barrier of 200$ is simply to place "sure bet" and significantly speed up wagering.
Just an example
I will play red and black with lets say 15$ each and cover zero for insurance to compensate the loss if it hits.
With 30$ in total /25% toward wager it would be 7.5$ effectively. And how much I have to place on zero to pay of possible loss? :) You see what I mean..
IF you can earn in the game and they have put you restrictions which you are allowed to earn this time, why not to try this. I didn't find that this violates some rules.. C:-) :whistle:
I did something similar on sports betting bonus in the past on bet365 and it worked... >:D
Best
Drazen
Well done Drazen :thumbsup: I'm happy to hear your successes my friend.
Long may it continue :cheer:
Hi Drazen
I tried to become a member; then I noticed they don't have fun $ to practice with
I spoke to the operator online and she told me the only way tto practice free is to accept
the bonus......lol lol. I naturally refused.
Just about all good online casinos have fun account and I find this strange they do not have fun
account. I don't think I will put real $ at work here......
Why don't u use your same strategy or method at another online casino to compare the results.
Cheers
R
Casinos are not fools, they won't give u a bonus unless it is profitable for THEM, not for u...Any moment u are ahead they can call you a bonus abuser, and then good bye to your bonus and your winnings. Even the most trusted casinos can do it, that's normal. That's not your money, that's casino money, today they give it to you, tomorrow they may take it any moment. And money won by you with a bonus is not yours as well because it was made out of their money. So this is normal casino practice. If they don't give u a bonus, u may not want to play, if they just let everybody make money from their bonus then they go bankrupt. The logic is simple. Don't accept the bonus unless you want just to have some free fun training how to play at this casino. Don't count on this bonus as your money. It's theirs.
I already said this:
Let's say house edge is 3% roughly. Now let's say u get 100 dollars bonus with some wager requirements. You start playing it random with 1 dollar unit. After a while there is a very good chance that u will lose 3% and will stay with 97 bucks. Let's say u are done with your wager requirements. And u can withdraw your money. What happened here? Despite the house edge you made money out of NOTHING, like a magician. You made 97 bucks with zero dollars down. Now imagine that 1000 people from all the world came to this online casino and just followed the suite. Casino lost 97k.
Will they let this happen? Don't fool yourself.
Yes iggiv I know that. It was more of a mistake, but anyway even If I don't get nothing it was worth of my practice, tuning things and confidence... I am aware I am messing with thiefs and actually defy them very raw in their business.
Anyway to be honest I don't put much hope that even if I wager out this, I won't have fight with them or even won't get that money. They just need to see my history of play and they will be scared. It may seem to them that they don't need such player in their casino.
But again those 200$ is not much of a money and if they refuse to pay this I really don't know what... We will see.
This casinos is from famous Playtech grpupation where William Hill is also, one of the most unfair casinos concernig restrictions of play and not cashing out bonuses.
So should I look for casinos which accepts pro players? Is there actually any such on line casino? That sounds like a fairy tale I have been dreaming of since I started this journey. Is that impudently thinking? Did I deserved it? Is it real? Well something toward this is happening definitely. I can't not to notice this.. Almost at 176$ now..
Not that I am not sure in my strategy, just not sure that this is happening to me :scared:
Just don't know.. the time will tell. It always has all answers..
Drazen
William Hill group may ban you from live games any time. This is expected. I think they let you go on just because they are sure you won't be able to satisfy their wager requirements. If this was you your own money in use with such winnings, you wouldn't have to be able to play live games by now.
You can hardly blame them for making it tough regarding the free sign-up bonus. As iggiv says, they are running a business. But their match bonus seems quite good - they'll match up to £100 and you only have to wager x20, plus you get to keep ALL your winnings.
Anyway, keep us updated Drazen. :thumbsup:
Quote from: Rouletta on June 09, 2013, 02:33:27 PM
I tried to become a member; then I noticed they don't have fun $ to practice with
I spoke to the operator online and she told me the only way tto practice free is to accept
the bonus......lol lol. I naturally refused.
I don't see the harm in taking that bonus if all you want to do is practice; what do you have to lose? Worse case scenario is you lose it, but you could eventually make $200 without risking any of your own money.
What i understand from all this,.... and all roulette-experts here (amazing)
Ways to win roulette:
(1) Betselection
(2) Progression
(3) Patterns
(4) W/L-patterns
We all know this now. Good. Now, figure out a roulette system that works!
Thank you :P
ignatus, Old Sport, I'll get right on it!
QuoteWhat i understand from all this,.... and all roulette-experts here (amazing)
Ways to win roulette:
(1) Betselection (isn't mechanical)
(2) Progression (none that work, you have to be flexible and use your own judgement when to increase or fall back to base unit)
(3) Patterns (forget it, random constantly changes)
(4) W/L-patterns (you could count wins/losses in the last x spins depending on what you are following)
Quoteignatus, Old Sport, I'll get right on it!
LOL Sam, I somehow don't think ignatus is at this level of the game yet but he seems to be learning that mechanical systems/methods do not work long term.
Never say die, Superman: -I won 92€ playing this for real @Eurogrand casino last week.....my own invention/system...took me 4 days to make that tracker.
http://www.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=13098.0 (http://www.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=13098.0)
Hello again Drazen,
I see your point when you say this:
"There was saying "free no deposit" so I though it is free as I have in the past experienced in this casino few times that they give honestly FREE bonus which you can actually withdraw at the moment. No any obligations at all."
William H actually sent me an email 3 times saying that they had given me a free 10 euro bonus. I thought, that was nice, and went to my account and withdrew it each time.
I might add, that this was after I told them to cancel all bonuses on my account which I did first thing when I open the account. These free 10 euro bonus came out of the blue. But unfortunately have since stopped.
Strange huh.
Quote from: Bayes on June 09, 2013, 04:52:57 PM
Anyway, keep us updated Drazen. :thumbsup:
Ok as you might see I touched the ceiling. This is the max amount they will give me if I wager what has left to.
Now all "extra" money I will be investing into little "trick" with which I ll try significantly speed up that rest of wagering requirements, which I described earlier here. Will it be some sort of violation in the end? I don't know... In any case it was interesting ride with no costs at all.. And to be honest I don't have strenght any more to wager it by some normal route... :broken:
Best
200.20 good numbers Drazen.
I think you can make it.
I am thinking about accepting reasonable casino bonuses.
I will play one or perhaps two methods per bonus.
One of the bonuses should succeed.....
I will consider them tests : )
Quote from: Drazen on June 11, 2013, 08:59:33 PM
Ok as you might see I touched the ceiling. This is the max amount they will give me if I wager what has left to.
Now all "extra" money I will be investing into little "trick" with which I ll try significantly speed up that rest of wagering requirements, which I described earlier here. Will it be some sort of violation in the end? I don't know... In any case it was interesting ride with no costs at all.. And to be honest I don't have strenght any more to wager it by some normal route... :broken:
Best
Do you know how much of the wagering requirement has been paid?
A bit more then 1/3 or so. Ah I ll do it over time I guess. I asked them can be there any violation of bonus terms in placing bets. They said no. ;) WE will see
Drazen
Just as a note of caution reading the 'terms + conditions' at Joyland.
[attachimg=1]
Casinos don't like low risk wagering on bonus money and WILL lock accounts if they see you playing this way. A lot of players used to do it with Blackjack playing basic strategy assuming that they had a good chance to keep most of the bonus money even after playing through the requirements.
It would be a shame to risk losing something that you have obviously worked hard for.
Hello again Bally,
Who said anything about me doing all the hard work?
My friend R2 also likes to play roulette a lot : )
What was that Yoda?
Look out for Darth Vader.......
LoL
i have just found this topic..very well done Drazen....you said above that you play some horror numbers given by Bayes...are able to upload them files so i wanna look at them or Bayes...thanks
Bays-es "horror" sessions are in the attach.
If that isn't enough you can also find on RF.cc Bays-es tool called "sequence analyzer", which can generate endless amounts of any possible roulette "horror" sessions (so as any other) by given parameters.
Best
Drazen
thanks Drazen i checked them sesssions but i have seen a lot worse...was RNG two times in a row taken to 71 spins without dbl win and 3 times to 15% for reds and high in last 40 spins..but above all no loses and Bayes software is just very good..thank you for attachments and thanks to Bayes.. [smiley]aes/cigarette.png[/smiley]
those horror sessionas are the worst deviations over 200 spins sequence and then next 200 spins. what you are saying are deviations over 40 spins from bayses tracker. Anyway... :-)
If you have good bet selection, most MM schemes work
very well. But they also put you more at risk. So it always
comes back to flat betting. There is nothing MM can do that
flat betting can't if you have the right bet selection. Just last
week I saw 4 zeros in 6 spins. This will screw up any MM plan,
except flat betting. For FB, its just a blip. Bottom line is, always
risk as little as possible, you never know what's coming.
My belief is that you are only limited by how you interpretate the data which is in front of you. A horror session to one player could possibly be another players biggest ever win. A dynamic game such as roulette certainly requires having more than just one bet selection. It requires an arsenal of interchangeable ways of playing. It's not just semantics either. We need to be careful not to limit what is achievable by having fixed ideas.
That being said Bally. I do believe that it might be possible to win in roulette with an "aggressive" progression.
If I am wrong please forgive me : )
I think you are right AMK. Betting aggressively can have its place.
I've started betting using Tracker and I'v got some questions.
I've started betting two different ways to find out which one is better.
1. I waited for at least 25%(marquees on the right) before I attacked. I bet D'Alembert - increasing 1 unit after a cycle of two without a hit and decreasing after a winning cycle.
I've checked 1k spins. Mostly I was satisfied when I was ahead 1 unit/single progression. After 1k spins I was 30 units ahead. Few times I had to cut losses when what I played rised to 35-37%.
My questions are:
What am I doing wrong that after 1k spins I was "only" 30 units ahead?
Could you tell me (in average) when you cut losses? My friend who told me about this forum told me that Drazen told that he was -300 units down once before started recovering this particular progression. Drazen, did you recover that time? As we know, when -3SD occurs, if its start giving us EC once in two spins, we don't recover but -3SD is decreasing immediately so I wonder is it possible to recover from -300 units?
I recovered 120 units for 100 spins.
Drazen said he hasn't lost single session. By "session" you mean a day or your single progression?
2. I've waited until I got at least 25% and interval of losses in row occured (at least 5 losses in row). Even in this situation I had to bet 13 units mostly. I was ahead 26 units.
Hi RyaWolf
Yes I recovered that time and pulled out that session, couple of hours later :broken: And that happened because I was stubbornly chasing one trigger along the alley :forbidden:
Standard deviation is square root function and because of that decrease is going much faster then increase.
I don't have stop loss in terms of units, but in terms of playing one particular trigger. If things don't go in your favour, stop and continue when another opportunity arises. It is less likely that things will go so wrong in successive samples.
From my experience it is better to switch triggers more often then chasing one trigger even if STD when you start on it is huge, like -4.0 std or above. As we know deviation doesn't have to balance soon and it isn't guaranteed that after a bit of "retrace" can't go unpleasant against you again.
Just remember, no pain, no gain
Hope this helps
Drazen
Quote from: Drazen on March 02, 2014, 11:25:21 PM
From my experience it is better to switch triggers more often then chasing one trigger even if STD when you start on it is huge, like -4.0 std or above. As we know deviation doesn't have to balance soon and it isn't guaranteed that after a bit of "retrace" can't go unpleasant against you again.
Just remember, no pain, no gain
Drazen
Solid advice... as always... from Drazen
Chasing is the worst...obviously we all try not to dig ourselves into holes we can't climb out of...abandoning a losing attack earlier than later is the best way to avoid big drawdowns once you've committed. Another opportunity to attack will always arise...save some bankroll to fight another fight.
People seldom discuss the casinos biggest advantage is their wealth vs what's in your pocket...their staying power is a formidable obstacle
QuotePeople seldom discuss the casinos biggest advantage is their wealth vs what's in your pocket...their staying power is a formidable obstacle-RouletteKEY
The amount of money that the casino has doesn't affect whether you win or lose.
In the long run, the biggest obstacle is and always will be the house edge.
Today I got a drawdown -615. After 150 spins I recover a bit (about 100 units, when there was about 52% occurence) but that was it. To recover 615 units I had to had about 80%? Or more?
You guys said "chasing is the worst". If that long drawdown happened to me once there is a chance it would happen again, when I attack again.
As I said, taking the trigger at -3SD (or even more) and playing it so mechanically until getting in plus is not the way to go. Eh if things would be so simple...
Cheers
honestly, you are my all time favorite poster Sam :applause: :cheer: