In my humble opinion and experience:
          Wheel and ball has no memory but since every number has its proportional opportunity/expectancy(1/37) to win, in every spin, every number tends to reach close to its break even gradually. Same principle applies to each and every bet of the game. For example, if you bet say 1st dozen, the combined probability of 12 numbers of 1st dozen to hit in one spin will be 12/37. Unless the wheel is biased one, gradually every bet will even out at some point of time or other. In short run, however, you can predict nothing. There may be 10 blacks in 10 spins because randomness means without any defined order and the 10 blacks win may look strange to you but it is merely 5-10 different numbers on the wheel that have randomly hit at one small period.
                                      The wheel and ball has very good long term memory but it suffers from Short term memory loss.

Quote from: Blood Angel on May 26, 2013, 02:06:10 PM

hi Bayes,

Can you please upload it here or post a link to the thread on the other forum.

Thank you

http://www.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=9623.msg81271#msg81271

Here it is my friend

My best advice is that you shouldn't "chase" anything for too long if start to go bad.

I attached screenshot from my today's sessions. Look yellow marque on the right. Sequence of 28 losses and just 2 wins. This is the hardest as it gets!

Be carefull and good luck 

Drazen

Did U make those wins, with a Neg Progression, or Flat betting?


and.............if I may ask, are U betting 3 EC's at once on this game?
I can see the 0.10cents chip is raised, so is that  your base level or bet?


Thanks for the screen shot.
Interesting tracker U have.........is it widely available or one U made/had made for Urself?


chris

Huh Chrisbis my friend     don't you see the link? 

0.10 is my starting bet chip. In that horror sequence I lost only 2 bets, but later I got winnings from ambush

I am now over 59 $

I am using negative progression, mild dough.

Best

Drazen

Sorry my friend, thought that RF.cc link was an original question!!
unintelligent ain't eye!


Mild dough eh.................mmmm!


great extension of the English language there! lol

---

I hear U are now one of three reported- winning consistently.....!
Well done, are U available for weddings, birthdays, bar vitzmass, christenings?


I hopefully have two christenings to attend next year!


Yes, I am going to be a grand-daddy too! (two even!)


Anyways.......................what are U playing to win consistently?


I'm varying my play a lot these days, but BV RNG only....!

Oh really nice. Let me congratulate you on becoming grand daddy then  It is probably one the best feelings adult person can experience.

When your children become mature parents, then you know you succeed in one of the most important goals in life

About devils game.

I would lie If I would say I am not really flattered they put me in category with Bayes and Superman, but it seems I am keeping up to make some earnings without pushing my hot buttons. At least for now 

Feeling is even better when free money is invested. Casinos money. And in my world, 60$ as I have now, is my 3-4 months pocket money worth. (So you bet progressions must be "mild" anyway LOL)

I got 50$ which I intended to deposit and take the bonus. And I was thinking to play it slowly but surely, as I am not in a rush anyhow to withdraw, so I would wager it eventually (or been busted lol). I had double chance for free actually, as If something unpredictable would happen I would stop at -50$.

In my testings I have never experienced DD higher then 300 units so 1000 chips was a fair deal to try twice in worst case.

My casino account was in € currency and I asked customer support can I change currency in $ to get more chips as planned. As € is higher value currency then $.

They said that is not a problem and that can be arranged as long 0.00 is at balance. So I transferred money to moneybookers and downloaded the casino. I contacted customer support about changing currency. That took 10-15 minutes and they said they have to create me a new account and I got new username and password.

Even before operater gave me my new account details over chat, I got email hit in my mailbox, as I get almost instantly notifications in mozilla when I get some e-mail in one of my electronic post boxes.

That was Joyland casino sending me new username and password and on my surprise 25$ free no deposit welcome bonus was attached with new account. Surprise was as I actually wasn't new player there... I don't know is that mistake or what but I asked operater to confirm can I withdraw that money ATM. Positive answer slapped.

Actually they are very generous about bonuses. If you are their player and playing through some time, they give you free bonus now and then. Even when you are winning actually...  Very nice of them.

(huh did this sounded like I am advertising their casino?  )

I said to myself to hell all, lets try with this. It is not 1000 chips but you didn't dropped much more then this in worst case. You have a chance and there is much less pressure as it is free money.

So I started, and now I am where I am. Every session is for itself and every enter in the casino is new fight. I  put lot of efforts into training and skills for the fight. I am very well armored and challenging opponent in the arena now.

So we will see. I still never underestimate this beautiful game and enjoy so much playing it. You wouldn't believe how much. But live tables only. Too bad this can't work in real casino with me there lol RNG maybe one day. But later then sooner.

Best

Drazen

Hi Drazen

Thank you very much for the link. Ill have  a long hard think about what you guys are doing ( or at least what I suspect your doing).

Quote from: TwoCatSam on May 26, 2013, 06:40:15 PM
You use past results to decide where to bet.  Is that fair?  If it is, then that is tantamount to saying that past results effect future results.  If I'm in error there, would you explain?

If, in fact, past results effect future results, can we say the wheel has some sort of "memory"?  Or something that acts like a memory?

Hi Sam,
No, you don't need to assume that past results affect future results, nor that there is any memory. You've noticed it yourself, it's just the nature of random to cycle and each bet selection will have its own peaks and troughs. What I do isn't any kind of "prediction", it's just the most logical way IMO to avoid the run from hell, and there's no mystery about it.
Take a look at that screenshot which Drazen posted showing only 2 wins in the last 28 decisions. How hard would it be, using an appropriate progression if necessary, to make a few units having observed that run? Chances are very good that the NEXT 28 spins will not be so severe (regression to the mean). If when you start betting the losses continue, just hold off until things start to pick up. With the right progression which needn't be a marty or anything like it, you will recoup any minor losses WHEN things turn around, and they don't need to swing 180 degrees the other way for you to profit. Just make a few bets (even 1 unit profit is enough), then rinse and repeat when another opportunity comes along.
Some say that the trend is your friend, and that it's better to go with the flow (bet for what is happening rather than against it), but in my experience it's just not reliable enough as a strategy. If you enter the game at or near the observed "limit" of what random outcomes will throw at you, there are only 3 things that will happen in the near future: (1), Things can level off to around 50:50; (2), Things can turn around and go in your favor, or (3), Things can continue to go against you, but not so severely as only 2 wins in 28 spins. (1) and (2) are no problem, and (3) can be managed with sharp MM. You don't get this when following the trend or any other kind of pattern selections because the run from hell can occur, no matter how often you switch or "go with the flow", it can still happen, and much more often than you might think (the "whipsaw" effect). I actually do switch around a lot in my play, but the principle "trigger" for me is always to bet against the deviation continuing, and strong deviations are going on all the time if you know what to look for.
That's it. No clairvoyance, no voodoo!

BTW, there's something seriously screwed with the font sizes...

Quote from: Bayes on May 27, 2013, 05:48:37 PM
No, you don't need to assume that past results affect future results

Why is it people can look at past results of the stock
market or past results of football games or past results
of rainfall and never once think, gee, these don't effect
future results, they must be useless. They aren't useless
at all, they give us a guide as to what might happen in
the future. But not past roulette spins, why, they're stuff,
you're an unintelligent if you look at them. Whatever...

Bayes

That was quite a post and I thank you for it.  I have read it twice and will read it several more times.  For those who stumble in the dark, even the smallest of lights is welcome.

Sam

Excellent post Jules. 

@spike

You wrote:  "But not past roulette spins, why, they're stuff, you're an unintelligent if you look at them."

Stock market history plots the progress of fear and greed based on identifiable economic factors.

History repeats so it's worth looking back for that and for other obvious reasons. Obvious reasons include looking for -- and following -- trends, of course.

Roulette results are random. No fear/greed factors affect the ball's outcome.

But there are discernable patterns which experienced players look for and exploit.

No idiocy involved -- so watch your language and choice of words in future.

Calling people idiots if they do something you disagree with is NOT the way to behave on this forum.

Heed this Warning...

Just happened to read the entire post! Was with grandkids over the long weekend. So much fun!

Now before I add my two cents here, a bit of background of me as I haven't introduced myself to anyone around here. I used to work for Cammegh in my working days. For people who don't know, we produce roulette wheels. Yes, roulette wheels. I graduated through the ranks there and retired as a director. For close to 2-3 years, my job was a wheel balancing expert, advicing and supporting casinos on ensuring that the wheels are balanced. There are various complex methods that we use to determine whether the wheel is balanced or not from physical inspections to running the spins produced through a number of tests.

One of the tests is on standard deviations. Standard deviations not only on the numbers, but on every playing position. I often hear people say that wheel don't have memory. Our job was to induce memory into the wheel to ensure that a balance is produced. We treat wheels which don't exhibit memory capabilities and produce balanced behaviours as outlaws and detain them They see their way out of the casinos so that their banks are not broken.

That experience has taught me a lesson that there is nothing called gamblers fallacy when things are approached scientifically with an expectancy of deviation not continuing on a long term. Casino's determination and manufacturers will to keep them balanced has created a whole new world which can be dominated by people who show patience and discipline to track the spins to go into balance. What Bayes and drazen are following is absolutely one of the methods to beat a balanced wheel.

Also, we cannot ignore the fact that there is a thin line that separates art from science. As Sam rightly said, it is a premonition or in my words an art to deduce what science tells us and get our playing positions right.
I shall close with an interesting anecdote, I used to read the methods from our sister forums and run them on my machines to see whether they are exhibiting a behaviour which is balanced (result in a no win, no loss position on flat betting ). That's when my engagement with these forums started and am relishing it.


Great discussion thread Sam!

GG
If we were playing post thread poker, that was akin to a royal flush!!
Turner

Quote from: Marshall Bing Bell on May 28, 2013, 08:32:09 AM


Yeah, except for the ace up the sleeve.

Skakus....the post originally started....On face value,....but i removed it.