Relevance versus Perception versus Reality.......The Brutal Honest Truth Most Cannot or Will Not Face--Admit--Even Explore!

Relevance

A very important thing to base much around when you are actually at the casino table.  For good solid reason!

I took H-Money to the casino the other night.  F***Me!
What a waste of time, action and f***ing emotions!

He won $23,000.00 and agreed, complied and then went back to the casino after we dropped him home, and gave it all back, the buy-in and borrowed additional monies to continue his attempt to recoup, recover and win, once again.  It was right at a $1,000.00 buy in.  Two shoes, done deal.  Talked until both myself and my buddy was blue in the face, pretty much a last ditch try with the man.  I can't take it any longer.  Somehow he allowed the defensives of the casino to come right through, be ingrained within himself and allow them to overwhelm himself.  Sad, but reality and relevant! 

No matter what he wins or loses, he cannot paint a picture with a decent relevant game plan that can bring him back around.  If we went tomorrow and he won $100K + he would give it all back and then some.  If he won $5k or $10k or another $23k, he would only add huge doses of failure waiting to happen, because he does not and cannot realize, relevance in the overall picture is one of the key items that he disavows even pertinent to gambling.  And, IMO it most certainly is foremost and #1.   

Emotional and childish, ego driven.  What the real problem is the false sense of perception? IMO, it is the sheer misunderstanding, fail to have explained to yourself as well as the ugly greed and reality that you have no idea how to handle, taper or deal with, when you are playing.   Leave it at the door!  Check it.  Be done with it.  All it can generally do for you, is hurt you.  Almost all of you figure you have the casino outsmarted and outwitted by reading the likes of the 3 or 4 regular members that used to write on this board until I could not put up with their game playing and their warped sense of combativeness.  Over and over and over, the same things with the same people or the scarring away of new members. 

First stop is walking through the casino doors.  Get into neutral.  No perception, None! 

Leave perception, I stress.  Engage in 'Relevance'.

Relevance means, 'Important to the matter at hand', 'being connected'.  And, that my friend will bring you laps around perception. 

Probability and Edge Variance cannot be applied to the game in every move detail, unless you have a huge, almost infinite bankroll to fund buy-in after buy-in after buy-in, to continue your pursuit of endless wagering that fails more than it wins.  When you get up a few units then you say you stop and take the profit, oh please---that story is getting real old, does not happen except repeatedly on paper. 

You either go down -OR-you succeed

Those two things happen, will happen and there is no way to stop them or pick a table without the chance that either of them will happen.  Period.  No way.

Each hand has just as much chance to happen or not happen in most situations.  Not all, but most.  There are select times (opportunities by the clear majority of the chance) that something will happen in the upcoming section, that it is a clear opportunity, but that is not the focus here. 

You can put a math spin on it to support any position you take or are against. 

Regarding Test Results

The computer test results highlighting probability and variance, cannot be applied uniformly across the board to the casino table you are playing at, unless you play the same amount of total hands in long term multimillion shoe tests.  This cannot be accomplished in the casino.  Period.

Therefore, you cannot use the results of those computer tests, divided down to small play times and hope they will match the results of the shoe in the casino you choose to play at.  Period.

The house edge might or might not happen in a shoe.  There is no way to tell what it will probably produce until very late in the shoe, say hand 65-70, you still do not have a definitive advantage, because you still have no idea the order of the cards remaining, and how they will proceed to come out.

False Positives

Identify what happens, when it happens as well as when it did not happen.  That will give you sections that could allow you to be ready for opportunities that the shoe could produce.  But once again, the shoe might not.  What so many players are under is a false positive that something has to happen.  It does not.  Will it eventually, probably.  And that right there is the biggest and most dangerous misnomer of the game itself.

Even with the extensive review and analyzation of all baccarat computer test results by the world's most advanced, best qualified, highest rated mathematicians and statisticians, they will not be able to come up with a formula to outright predict randomness.  They will however, claim, they can pick the correct random outcome the majority of the time and the like--just to make themselves feel heads and tails over the rest of us.  But in reality, it does not work that way.  The sooner you digest that the sooner you will be on your way to realistic and better play. 

As far as any reoccurring events, (runs, streaks, chop chop, doubles, triples, etc.) they happen all the time, almost every single shoe.  It is just that we trained ourselves the wrong way to recognize them.  We convinced ourselves that we have to see the reoccurring events to play with them repeatedly first and then wager on them to continue or cut.  At best we win a couple or a few and then give it right back, pushing us almost unconsciously into submission or gross negligence of everything we learned, stood for and practiced.  In other words, you are approaching the selection for your wagers, the wrong way with the wrong trend of thought. Means an awful lot!  You only wind up putting yourself into a rut, a mean nasty rut that is only your fault.  Being neutral, being clear minded, possessing no scheduled types of wager selection protocol, is so vital and so crucial to winning money, the simplicity of it is tough for so many to actually grasp and understand.

There are always opportunities along the upcoming path, which are not yet presented.  All you have to do, is be on that path.  REMEMBER that above all else!   But my key to winning is the application of my chart below, not to be confused with actual BetSelection procedures.  This will enable you to win much greater amounts, than you would normally.  And that is one of the keys for stacking up the win money, something sizable anyways.

If you are going to play with the thought of one unit profit, just focusing on the 1s, which have to happen, after an unknown amount of previous repeats, or choose an entering point, way when a 3 or a 4 repeating P or B occurs and then wager for the opposite side, all you have to do is have enough to buy in and be able to stay under table max, no matter how many times you lose before the cut to the opposite side comes out. But if you win, you will not and if you lose, likewise, you become more enraged and frustrated and thus your cycle and vision is knocked so far off balance, you are only destined to lose, plain and simple.

One unit profit, two units profit.  I do not play for it.  However, if you were to do this for example, at a $2,000.00 max table, you would have the following chances to make 1 unit profit.  This has to be about the most believed in and most talked about schedule of wagering ever.  There are so many other more secure ways to wager with far less risk and far greater opportunity! 

$100 Wagers          $50.00 Wagers        $25.00 Wagers           $200.00 Wagers                 $500.00 Wagers
100.00                      50.00                          25.00                       200.00                          500.00
200.00                      100.00                        50.00                        400.00                         1,000.00
400.00                      200.00                        100.00                      800.00                          2,000.00
800.00                      400.00                        200.00                      1,600.00                    ___________
1,600.00                   800.00                        400.00                    ____________
________                 1,600.00                      800.00                    Risk  3,000.00             Risk 3,500.00
Risk 3,100.00           __________                 1,600.00
                               Risk 3,150.00            _____________
                                                                 Risk 3,175.00

3 to 7 wagers at a $2,000.00 max table, even at a $100.00 to a $10,000.00 max table, there are not a lot of greater chances left.  Huge risk, versus reward and consistent wins?  If you never witnessed 7 to 10 losing hands, you really have never got into playing baccarat yet.  You can easily finish those charts for any max limit table and figure out your risk, it is huge!  I see people do it all the time and I see more lose than even walk away with the one or two units. 

Problem being, once you lose a series of 5 to 7 wagers, as shown above with the Marty, you will be in deep by subscribing to that way of scheduled play.  Lose once or twice and attempt to make it all back at one or two units with further risk.  Nearly impossible.  I promise you that. 

I would say one of the safest, although no guarantees, is to enter after the 4th occurring same side result.  There are lots and lots of 2's and 3's and even 4's.  However, if the streak goes past the 4th repeating one, then you will lose your risk wager for that round.   And the highest majority of everyone will not stop with the first loss.  And, if you say, all I need is a $3,500.00 bankroll and I can repetitively win one or two units all day long.  Just split up my sessions, win and break, win and win and keep repeating.  Try it! It will not work, it will backfire on you and your $3,500.00 will be gone, fast.  Then attempt to recoup that by one and two unit wins of $25.00! It will take 124 times, winning 1 unit at a time to recoup.  You better have tens of thousands of dollars in bank roll to risk and lose frequently if that is your trend of thought.

There usually are short sections within most shoes, not all, but most, that do offer super opportunities for great returns in wagering if done correctly.  I have talked and exposed plenty in relationship to that.  You have to program your mind and be neutral. 
Since there are only a limited amount of repeating events, whether same side repeats, alternating, or anyone of the other possibilities, they are captivating providing a false positive believe, either by winning or losing with the hopes to win.  Stop falling prey to what the casino wants you to fall prey to.  The casino inflicts each of us with false beliefs in the upcoming betselections.  It happens.  It always did and it always will.  So face it.  However, the rest is up to each person, their style, how good or bad their gut feeling really are, and probably more so than anything else, the types of experiences the player has inflicted upon himself in an overall aspect. 

The two folded problem has to be overcome.  You don't do that by counting on winning to replace or obtain funds that you have lost.  You also do not count on future hands to produce the same results.  The list goes on, but those two will give you the basis for most of what you cannot count on and cannot do at the table.  To resolve the problems inflicted by your wrong decisions and beliefs in betselection, you must shift into a neutral frame of mind, not relying on anything to make you shift into the negative emotional and those frustration reactions of your lost wagers.  Real hard, very very difficult but a necessity of such basic knowledge that you have to master and do it flawlessly or your chances are reduced by huge amounts to win as well as walk away a winning more than you do a loser.

So, that is exactly why I attempt to follow my, "If I win I win", and "If I lose I will lose", type of play.  Not fighting it nearly as much as others do at the tables.  Relevance and Reality are what counts, not perception.  Short term success at the table is the path you want to find.  Once your mind wanders and once you start believing all the fallacy and the desires of others, you will somehow find yourself throwing gutter balls down the ally, time after time after time. 

Written 5 years ago.  Pertains to many discussions today.

Asym?
Kung Fu?

In alrelax post above:

"...No matter what he wins or loses, he cannot paint a picture with a decent relevant game plan that can bring him back around.  If we went tomorrow and he won $100K + he would give it all back..."

Much of what successful gamblers do to win more than they lose is very similar to the same personal attributes that makes one successful occupationally (Owning a business, investing,.etc). It does not matter as the same discipline, patience, observation, and willingness to exploit are all correlated.

Often it is how one handles the "bad" days that suggest how one handles the really great days. If a small business owner understands that certain months or quarters are slow, they may decide to cancel that expensive vacation or new car purchase, simply so they can pay employees and bills,...etc.

On really good days when a certain product lets say is really selling and maximizes profits what does a business owner do?? They buy more of that product and sellsellsell until the sales slow down.

Gambling success is much the same. If we want to be available(have the funds) on the great exploitive days, we must endure the really bad days. In other words do not go on tilt on the really bad days.

*A couple days ago across multiple shoes  and at one stage was down (-2400 Net), never positive, and recovered to (-500 or so) Net for the day. My hit rate wasn't really that bad and I never busted an individual buyin. However, I simply couldn't get that one extra win-in-a-row. Several bets if I had won that next wager then the above would have been reversed and I would have been Net+ maybe 1200---3600 or so. No big deal as the next morning I started my day the same way(just like a day trader, small business owner, doctor, mechanic,...etc).

Its my opinion our winning more than we lose (Net Longterm) has more to do with ones mindset, discipline, and patience. Versus some wizzardly bet placement or mechanical betting style.

Personally, I am prouder of myself on bad days when I do not buyin again in that same very awful, really bad shoe, then on shoes or days that are really easy. Everybody handles the really easy days well.

As in life everything is cyclical. Don't dwell on the bad days. However, and more importantly, be willing to accept and exploit the really good days. We shall see both.






Continued Success,