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Some observations regarding progressions and bets.

Started by Ralph, January 13, 2013, 11:33:57 AM

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Ralph

I have tested ( a lot) playing from EC:s to straight ups using a progression which add one on a win, if not on plus.


At the first look it seem like playing straight ups, should need a larger bankroll and due to variance  come in problem if the number sleeps a long time than for example a doublestreet or a dozen.


We  can however we bet always come into situations which is near or impossible to save, but I have seen it is not so common with straight ups and splits as lower variance bets.


I have a double street which were 1000 units down and then turn and after 331 spins ended with 20 plus. Just a few loss more had probably  made me stop.


A DS which hits just under its average for long time make the bets higher very soon, and it can not recover which a few hits, it will not be "hot" for so many spins, the session takes long and wave up and down for long time.


On the other hand a straight up, if it come out far under average, it cost  one or two chip a bet, and it needs one or just a few hits to catch up even if it is far behind.


From playing a lot of sessions, my experience is straight up and split are at least not  more risky than double streets using the method, probably safer.


The pay out and the probability  and odds says it should not matter which bet we do, but that's  on the average, the problem happen when the hit rate are low for long.

Trebor

I agree with this.


As long as you're happy with a low strike rate playing one or two numbers is the way to go, just as MrJ is always telling us.


I like to use a positive progression. This has the effect of making sessions of a manageable length, resulting in either a reasonable win target reached or a stop loss.


Trebor

Ralph

Quote from: Trebor on January 13, 2013, 11:49:19 AM
I agree with this.


As long as you're happy with a low strike rate playing one or two numbers is the way to go, just as MrJ is always telling us.


I like to use a positive progression. This has the effect of making sessions of a manageable length, resulting in either a reasonable win target reached or a stop loss.


Trebor




Yes if the session is too long, if the variance late will come in favour, the HE will work the session apart. I have had sessions of 2000 spins, and if it is a ZeroWheel it can not be much longer, before it is killed by the HE. In the shorter sessions the variance has larger impact than the HE, but it will catch up, as it grows for every spin, and the variance should even out.