Quote from: Sputnik on October 13, 2013, 04:18:07 PM
The point is, there is no member of this forum who can flat betting.
If some one say they can, then they lie.

Quote from: iggiv on October 17, 2013, 12:37:24 AM
there is no winning bet. it's nonsense. it doesn't exist. Whatever is winning now will lose soon. Any stiff pattern. But that does not mean, that it's impossible to win in roulette.

Quote from: Mike on October 17, 2013, 04:34:40 AM
Of course there's no consistent winning bet. The very idea is ludicrous. This guy razor is having a bit of a giggle at your expense!

Quote from: TwoCatSam on October 17, 2013, 04:49:06 AM
What the heck is a "constant winning bet" anyway??

Quote from: Marshall Bing Bell on October 20, 2013, 06:09:15 AM
Movements on the carpet?
What are the movements?
How would they help?

Quote from: malcop on October 20, 2013, 09:05:30 AM
The first rule of Fight Club is: You do not talk about Fight Club.
The second rule of Fight Club is: You do not talk about Fight Club.

Quote from: Mike on October 21, 2013, 05:17:24 PM
So my simulations showed exactly what the theory predicted.

Quote from: Sputnik on October 19, 2013, 09:01:54 AM
What is respect about, well i can not respect some one who claim they can flat betting.
Because they can not show how it is done, they just end up to claim they can out guess negative expectation, so boring, so why waste your time read what they reply when you know is nonsense ...

Some very interesting discussions happened while I was away on a short holiday. I was following them on my phone. I see there is some element of truth in every statement here even though they contradict. I will not get into phenomena of true-lies, but I am one who believe anything that man invented is flawed and can be beaten. And roulette was invented by mankind.

Yes, it is purely my belief and my opinion. It is my belief that you can overcome the negative progression. It is my belief that this can be achieved through flat betting. It is my belief that it is not a fight club and you can talk about it. It is my belief that you can do it mechanically. Interested? Read on then. Is this thread open for feedback? If not, I should not be posting here. Will take this personal? Yes, may be, but I do have a life beyond this. So shoot anything and everything you would like to say.

I am Pockets. Well, why is it important?

Because, I believe wealth is concentrated in pockets in this world. Energy is focussed in pockets in this world. I believe that 20% of anything packs 80% potential. I believe profits and losses in gambling occur in pockets and success lies in tapping these pockets. I believe in random outcomes clustering together in pockets of patterns and numbers. I believe in the deep pockets of casino who exploit people who voluntarily fall prey. I believe in treating gambling as something one should do with their pocket money. I believe roulette is made of pockets painted, but they carry no significance on the identity painted on them. I believe in luck striking in pockets. And finally I believe 80% of people in the world are driven by deeds that can make their pocket heavy. That's why I am POCKETS.

Some ground rules.
As no one has showed before, I will show (at least hoping that this will hold up how to beat the negative expectation with flat bet. Don't believe me now, because even I don't believe me now. Hold on and lets see how the mystery unravels. But I will keep it no mystery.


1. I want this to appeal to experienced and novices alike. So no complex jargons, assumptions
2. No hidden agenda on not wanting to give things on a silver plate. If I have things on a silver plate, I will happily feast you. As much I love pockets, I do like a world with equal opportunities. How one converts an opportunity should determine person's fate and not how much opportunity one gets.
3. Remaining truthful to the forums name, this thread is not about MM. it is about bet selection. So I will just use flat betting.
4. We will test at least 100 live sessions. I will post them honestly on this site.
5. This is in no means a dig at anyone. IT is an adventure and happy to take as many on board. We may agree and agree to disagree, but we are still together.
6. Strategy has to be playable. No point waiting 100 spins to play and no point the play not being able to hold people who want to play big unit sizes. For clarity, I will be using 5$ bets. You can define your own base unit. My bankroll is going to be 50 times the base unit.
7. I don't believe in stoplosses and profit targets. But I respect people with these targets. So my tests will cover both results with and without stop loss, but no profit targets.

So ladies(if there are any around here) and gentlemen, fasten your seat belts, the adventure is about to begin.

Quote from: Pockets on October 22, 2013, 11:19:17 AM
So ladies(if there are any around here)

There are! 

---

...I love flat betting too; been developing and tweaking flat betting systems only for quite some time now.

Congrats for walking the hardest but most rewarding journey: beating the house edge with pure bet selection

As a flat better myself I look forward to what you are going to share with us, good or bad 


Like you I believe in sharing, none of this "I'm going to give you some clues and you work it out for yourself"


BTW my reference to "Fight Club" was simply to say that if you don't want to share then don't talk about it!

I believe in random outcomes clustering together in pockets of patterns and numbers.

Pockets

Absolutely they do!!

All we ever need to know is two things:  When to get in and when to get out. 

I'm looking forward to your study!

Thanks for your time and effort.

TwoCat

Interestng so far Pockets....Read my signature

@Pockets

Question for you ... will you be sharing a method of play already established by you or are you wanting ideas from everyone else to try to form a new method of play.

Just trying to get the jist of what is to come.


Thanks


B

All, Thanks for the encouraging words. It makes a writer enjoy his writings, when he knows there are others who are reading it. I am happy to be amongst a set of like-minded individuals.

Quote from: Buffster on October 22, 2013, 01:39:01 PM
Just trying to get the jist of what is to come.

Now, Buffster, just to clear the air, what I intend to do is publish methods that I have researched over a period of time.
But the truth remains that am an amateur gambler and I don’t devote much of my time at the roulette as many of the people here do.
Also, am not a creative person to come up with my own roulette systems.
So honestly what I will be posting will be ideas borrowed from friends, family and people who post here and in some other forums.
At the same time, I do not want to downplay these ideas as replicas, as I have put in considerable effort and time to suit things that work for me on a regular basis to come out of any casino session in positive.

Thanks for the details.

Sounds interesting...let's pray you don't get your thread hijacked.

[Edit:  It  won't. Moderators still exist here! LOL ]

Let the game(s) begin.

B

Quote from: Marshall Bing Bell on October 22, 2013, 11:14:15 PM


Perhaps you could you start by defining "flat bet"?

Flat betting remains a bit of a grey area with many opinions as to what it actually means.


Some exaamples;

A) 1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1, etc.
B) 1.2.1.2.1.2.1.2.1.2, etc.
C) 1.1.1.2.2.2.1.1.1.2.2.2, etc.
D) 1.2.1.3.1.2.1.3.1.2.1.3, etc.
E) 1.2.3.4.5.1.2.3.4.5.1.2.3.4.5, etc.
F) 1.4.3.4.1.2.1.2.4.3.1.4.3.4.1.4.1.4.3.1.2.1.2.4.1, etc.


Which of the above would be considered flat betting?

In my opinion, they all are.

Not to put words in your mouth MBB.......

But are you saying...

''In the long run, any progression is simply a set of many different levels of flat bets'' (courtesy of Imspirit)

cheers

Quote from: Marshall Bing Bell on October 22, 2013, 11:14:15 PM
Perhaps you could you start by defining "flat bet"?

Mr. Bing bell, Very valid question. I did define my opinion on what is a flat bet in one of the posts earlier in a  different thread.

Quote from: Pockets on October 14, 2013, 10:24:42 AM
There are four forms of flat betting. One is flat betting in the true sense of flat betting, second one is flat betting in terms of units, but moving the betting positions, like parachute bets. Third is where you bet a progression 1,2,3,4, but on the progression loss, you move back to 1,2,3,4 again. Similar to your 1,2,2 method. You are flat betting 5 units. Fourth form is flat betting a session. Where you go to a session with a fixed pot of money or fixed Bank roll and you try to make profit or loss. The fixed bank roll/session Bank roll forms your flat bet. I have seen people practice all 4 forms and I have seen people both win and lose out of it.

However, to make things clear, the flat betting I will be using in this thread is 1,1,1,1,......... The flat betting in the common vocabulary.

Quote from: TwoCatSam on October 22, 2013, 12:25:20 PM
I believe in random outcomes clustering together in pockets of patterns and numbers.
Pockets
Absolutely they do!!
All we ever need to know is two things:  When to get in and when to get out. 
I'm looking forward to your study!
Thanks for your time and effort.
TwoCat

Am starting with the quotes from my favourite poster in this forum. Sam is absolutely right. All we ever need to know is when to get in and when to get out, and people have spent centuries finding an answer. I have read somewhere that people develop an intuition with experience and many people in this forum might have that intuition. But anything that is subjective cannot be proven and cannot be taught. It is for a reason my grandma told me that I will learn with experience and experience comes with age. I am going to attempt at how to curb human tendencies and intuition through defined mechanical set of rules.

As I told, throughout the study, I will be referring to various systems and methods and am not defining how this is going to shape as I don't know about it myself. I am just going to go with the flow. It brings another important point to the forefront that the wheel will reward you when you dance to its tune. Don't try fighting the random as its an uncontrollable monster, but instead worship it and play to its tunes.


I had a number of options to start with for my position of betting. My favourite is betting on 1 number or straights. But going with the ground rules set, I am going to steer away from it for sometime now as I found it hard to get the straight-up game when I started playing roulette. I still remember the day when me and my girl friend entered a casino in Monaco on our holiday and looked at real roulette table for the first time. I asked her where to put the money on and the answer came loud and clear - "Let it be on RED". I was expecting a bet on my date of birth, poor me.


As much as many experienced gamblers denounce it I find playing 18 numbers or ECs as we commonly call it, to be the easiest position to start for a noob like me. It gives me peace of mind because

   
• You don't have to wait longer for a win (ofcourse who can forget 22 reds in a row). It will give my girl friend absolute heart-ache if she is placing money on the wheel for 20-30 spins before taking money from it.
• It is easier to see how much more times you need to win to be in the positive. You place one unit, you win one or lose one. Simple calculations, simple betting sequences.
• You have the flexibility to place one bet which consolidates 18 numbers, just sitting and sipping your glenfiddich. You don't have to struggle and stretch on the table to place your bets and scramble before you hear "No more bets"
• Simple progressions, which are easier to understand and easier to relate to.

But as I said, straight-up is my favourite bet, and we will get into it once we travel a significant distance in this journey. For simplicity sake, lets start with Red and black, the ones which are visually distinct, the ones which are shown in the marquee, the ones which are easy to play for a dumbo like me.

Now that I decided the first one am going to use is ECs, how am I going to define the selection. DOMINANCE.

If at all this is a perfect world, we would be having all numbers striking atleast once in a 37/38 spin cycle, a table that chops consistently. It is not. Random plays a huge part. So we know by experience, inside and outside casino, that a random outcome is supposed to be random. If you toss heads and tails, we may not get head and tail alternatively, but in pockets. At times the head outcome will dominate and tail other times. They may be in perfect balance at some point or the other, but not always. This is an event that happens every spin and we don't have to wait for 10s and 100s of spins to see this phenomena develop.

Taking this clue, we are going to use DOMINANCE for our bet selection. We are attempting to try getting in with red when red dominates and get out when it doesn't. We are going to attempt to get in with black when it dominates and get out when it doesn't. Easy said, difficult, very difficult to execute.

A simple thing that people practice is race to 5. The claim is the fastest to reach 4 is the fastest to reach 5. If you see red reaching 4 first beating black, then red will reach 5 as well first. That's a way to tap dominance. But assuming the theory is true, the issue with that for me is it is not at all affordable flat betting. Let me explain why. Consider the following possible outcomes, considering Red is reaching 4 first and will reach 5 first as well.

4 red and 0 black
4 red and 1 black
4 red and 2 black
4 red and 3 black

The best case scenario is the next spin is red and the worst case scenario is you have to wait for 4 spins to get to red. Flat betting simply doesn't hold up, as you are talking not about a 50-50 chance here, but 25-75 chance. I have ignored the cases where black will also reach 4 and eventually 5.

The other practice people follow is look at the marquee. Red is dominating, continue betting on red. Not bad, but I don't have real control over when to start and when to end and I don't really know whether the domination I saw in the marquee is the end of a standard deviation or the beginning of an extreme deviation.

One other thing, which I used to practice was, treat the outcomes in blocks. Look at the last 5 or 10 spins. If red was dominating then bet for or against the dominance for the next 5 to 10 spins depending on your block size. Very good method to trap dominance and reduce your risk profile. The problem here for me is that I am blocking myself for a series of spins. I am restricting to a pocket of 5-10 spins, whereas the pattern packet may be for a larger or smaller number of spin sets.

Yes, I find something or the other challenging in these methods that try to trap the dominance and bet for or against the dominance to continue. But the concept of dominance is something that has remained and will remain very attractive. Now the question is what is the effective way to trap it in a negative expectation game?

Now that we decided to capture dominance on ECs, the big question is how do we do it without facing those challenges we discussed about. As Sam mentioned earlier, the key is to understand when to get in and when to get out.

Lets talk about the signal to get in.

Signal to get in
As described in our ground rules, we can't afford to sit endlessly in the table waiting for a signal to come through. Reason – We would not know whether the signal is an indication of good things to come or it is a false signal. I am sure the "most read about topic" in this forum, talks about this (Hit and Run) and it is proven that such hit and run signals end up on a false note and they are not workable as a long terms solution. But there are also people who talk about waiting for a desired SD and then start attacking for a balance, in the next set. And there are reports that people do that with some significant success. How do we turn this on its head and identify a signal almost every other spin? Is it really possible at all?

Let me throw an idea that will help you cut the chase. You observe for a maximum of 2-4 spins. The first time an EC hits 2 times (not necessary in succession), we consider that as the signal to get in. We ASSUME that the EC which hit 2 times first is the dominant. Of course, it could be a false signal, but that we will worry about when we get to our signals to get out. It might be confusing to follow, so let me explain with examples.

RR – Signal to get in with an indication that Red is the dominant. So start betting Red
RBR  – Signal to get in with an indication that Red is the dominant. So start betting Red
BRR – Signal to get in with an indication that Red is the dominant. So start betting Red
BB – Signal to get in with an indication that Black is the dominant. So start betting Black
BRB  – Signal to get in with an indication that Black is the dominant. So start betting Black
RBB – Signal to get in with an indication that Black is the dominant. So start betting Black

Got it? What happens when zero comes up? We just ignore that it appeared eg –
0RR - we read as RR ,
R0BR – we read as RBR
R0R – we read as RR
00RR – we read as RR and so on.

Now the funny thing is once we decided something is dominant, we keep betting on the same side unless the signal to get out comes through. For simplicity sake, I have used RB, needless to say that you can apply it against High-Low, Odd-Even, 3v3 lines, 6v6 streets and so on. It is essentially 18 pockets vs 18 pockets in the roulette.

So far so good? Will leave yourselves to ask any questions and absorb this completely before I pick the next post when we discuss about the signal to get out. This is where we will talk about what if it's a false signal? What to do when in doubt? What to do when the rain gods are showering? So on and so forth.