I've created a progression for EC bets which it succeeds as long as there are 25% wins out of the total of the bets placed.
This means that the expectation is being reduced to half of 50% (roughly).


The ratio of: 1 out of 4, 2 out of 8, 3 out of 12, 4 out of 16, 5 out of 20, 6 out of 24, 7 out of 28, 8 out of 32, 9 out of 36, 10 out of 40...etc
Can we get 10 out of 40 bets right as minimum??


It doesn't matter when those 10 wins will occur, on the beginning, on the middle, on the end, all the same as long as the ratio is being confirmed at some point, any point.
So the real question is, how long before a 25% wins for Even Chances is being achieved?

Quote from: Blue_Angel on May 26, 2018, 02:50:57 PM
I've created a progression for EC bets which it succeeds as long as there are 25% wins out of the total of the bets placed.
This means that the expectation is being reduced to half of 50% (roughly).


The ratio of: 1 out of 4, 2 out of 8, 3 out of 12, 4 out of 16, 5 out of 20, 6 out of 24, 7 out of 28, 8 out of 32, 9 out of 36, 10 out of 40...etc
Can we get 10 out of 40 bets right as minimum??


It doesn't matter when those 10 wins will occur, on the beginning, on the middle, on the end, all the same as long as the ratio is being confirmed at some point, any point.
So the real question is, how long before a 25% wins for Even Chances is being achieved?

Funny. That depends on luck.

Quote from: Gizmotron on May 26, 2018, 02:53:38 PM

Funny. That depends on luck.

Luck, or randomness if you prefer, has limits.
For example you will never see a number missing more than 666 spins, we could extend it to the rest of the bet selections/probabilities:


666/2 numbers = 333 spins maximum absence
666/3 numbers = 222 spins maximum absence
666/4 numbers = 167 spins maximum absence
666/6 numbers = 111 spins maximum absence
666/12 numbers = 56 spins maximum absence
666/18 numbers (EC) = 37 spins maximum absence

If in some way you could surpass those virtual limits then you would be always victorious.

Hi BlueAngel;

RE: "Hey Garry, what's up?
Warming up the chair for me?

It would be a pity not to address your inquiry properly, but since you've posted that your selection is doing well for thousands of bets, then why don't you make the start by explaining about your selection criteria?
By doing so others would be encouraged to step forth and fulfill your request, what do you think?"

Please don't misunderstand my intentions here. I did not mean to imply that "my selection is doing well for thousands of bets."
My bet selection process is still in the development stage and I was inspired by this ongoing discussion to compliment the people involved in this thread in providing, what I consider, some very useful information.

As a direct result of the information I have personally learned in this thread, IN THEORY, it seems likely that by using only past performances as a basis of input, that it is indeed possible to achieve a level of play that would allow a person to make bet selections with enough accuracy to achieve profitability, OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME, which is all you need. I have to assume that is where the MM comes in, short-term, realistic goals, make your profit and leave.

I was suggesting that, THEORETICALLY, there must be a creative, perhaps new way of following or notating past results, specifically for Baccarat, that would lead us naturally to a positive bet selection process. I hope this clears things up.

Sincerely,

Garry

Quote from: Jimske on May 26, 2018, 02:40:48 PM
Well said.  allow me to repeat. "The progression must be adjusted according the expectation and the expectation must adapt the tendencies."

Thank you!

Quote from: Blue_Angel on May 26, 2018, 03:01:20 PM

Luck, or randomness if you prefer, has limits.
For example you will never see a number missing more than 666 spins, we could extend it to the rest of the bet selections/probabilities:


666/2 numbers = 333 spins maximum absence
666/3 numbers = 222 spins maximum absence
666/4 numbers = 167 spins maximum absence
666/6 numbers = 111 spins maximum absence
666/12 numbers = 56 spins maximum absence
666/18 numbers (EC) = 37 spins maximum absence

If in some way you could surpass those virtual limits then you would be always victorious.

Blue,

Your virtual limits are utterly worthless! It's as useless as waiting for ten blacks to hit before betting on red.  You can't use the statistics to try and side step the probability of winning.  The payout will always be short of what the probability of winning says is fair.  It doesn't matter how elaborate your progression is, it simply won't work in the long run.

I've never suggested to wait for the maturity of chances, why are you putting words in my mouth?
I see no point in waiting for something when there's always something else going on.
If you had to choose the best value for money which one would that be?


1. Stratosphere
2.Treasure Island
3. Venetian Palazzo
4.Bellagio

Quote from: Blue_Angel on May 26, 2018, 09:12:59 PM
I've never suggested to wait for the maturity of chances, why are you putting words in my mouth?
I see no point in waiting for something when there's always something else going on.
If you had to choose the best value for money which one would that be?


1. Stratosphere
2.Treasure Island
3. Venetian Palazzo
4.Bellagio

Value for what?  Are you coming to town and you want to know where you should stay?  Are you renting a car?  Etc...
When are you coming? 

All I'm asking is where do I get more for less money?
Best for me is a good balance between quality and cost.

Blue,

TI is good pretty good choice.

Quote from: Blue_Angel on May 26, 2018, 09:37:00 PM
All I'm asking is where do I get more for less money?
Best for me is a good balance between quality and cost.

Yeah if yer lookin for value then the Treasure Island is yer best bet, hey hey.

Best value?
I think where you can choose to wager at many tables getting huge comps at the same time, so providing you can place a minimum $1000 bet, Bellagio will be the best option.
Then Venetian.

TI or Stratosphere don't belong to the "huge value category", imo.

as.

Bellagio is ok, it's not great because it has so many immigrants that smoke like dragons.  The smoke makes it unbearable at times.  The Ven and Pallazo are nicer rooms in my opinion, you don't have the piss all over the bathroom floors, and the machines are cleaner. 

Quote from: Xander on May 27, 2018, 12:17:05 AM
Bellagio is ok, it's not great because it has so many immigrants that smoke like dragons.  The smoke makes it unbearable at times.  The Ven and Pallazo are nicer rooms in my opinion, you don't have the piss all over the bathroom floors, and the machines are cleaner.

Actually you are right.
At Bellagio many players like to smoke not only cigarettes but also cigars, thinking that cigars will give them more respect (and it's a lol assumption as they are smoking plastic wrapped cigars that in Montecarlo and everywhere would be considered as real sh.it).
And yes, very often Bellagio high stakes toilet floor is filled by piss. 

as.

Cosmopolitan is my favorite cuz they always got something goin on in that joint, hey hey.