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Vdw martingale miscalculation?

Started by BEAT-THE-WHEEL, August 06, 2018, 12:35:30 PM

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BEAT-THE-WHEEL

Without 0(yes even if there is no house edge), just consider only R and B as an example. There are 512 combinations of 9 spin sets possible. Out of this 512 combinations, 406 combinations will give you a win and the rest will give you a loss. Sure a high win ratio inching towards 80%. But, the risk of losses will outweigh the impact of wins. See the following possibilities out of 512 combinations.

W – 256 times
L – 48 times
LW – 104 times
LL – 32 times
LLW – 36 times
LLL – 16 times
LLLW – 10 times
LLLL – 10 times
(Quote from Priyanka's)

============
If we bet vdw with martingale, assumed that it will happen as Nickmsi said it must (?).



W – 256 times(win256u)
L – 48 times
LW – 104 times(win 104u)
LL – 32 times
LLW – 36 times(win36u)
LLL – 16 times
LLLW – 10 times((win10u)
LLLL – 10 times(LOSE 1248=15×10=-150UNITS!)

========================
OR we bet marty, after a first virtual lose...




W – 256 times(no bet)
L – 48 times(no bet)
LW – 104 times....win 104u
LL – 32 times
LLW – 36 times...win36u
LLL – 16 times
LLLW – 10 times...win 10u
LLLL – 10 times....Lose 124=7×10=-70units.

Xxxxxxxxxxx
Or after 2 losses.




W – 256 times
L – 48 times
LW – 104 times
LL – 32 times  no bet
LLW – 36 times...win 36u
LLL – 16 times
LLLW – 10 times...win 10u
LLLL – 10 times....lose 12=3×10=-30unit.

The above are correct IF ALL 512X9 HIT AS IT SOULD AS CLAIMED!
WITHOUT HE ZERO, OR COMMISSION THROWN IN....

BEAT-THE-WHEEL

512 times 9=4608 hands.

What if we bet with grand marthy?



W – 256 times....1u
L – 48 times
LW – 104 times 13 =6-4=2
LL – 32 times
LLW – 36 times 137=14-11=3
LLL – 16 times
LLLW – 10 times 137, 15=30-26=4
LLLL – 10 times  137, 15, 31=-57 times 10=-570u

BEAT-THE-WHEEL

Mathwise, as Nickmsi said, it must surely hit as 1 plus 1 equal 2,

Thus assume that  no commision HE,
we bet 9hands for 512, then the marthy will surely win.

Any ideas?

BEAT-THE-WHEEL

Forget the marthy....it's a miscalculation!

But , ,....

The first vdw 256hit,  and...., lose 256
Thus it like betting 256black vs 256red balls in a bag....

Where u take out a ball and cast aside....

If it truly 256win  vs 256lose...
Then it's a ....grail?


Hope so....
Any ideas?

Albalaha

Marty or any other unrealistic progression is no solution to the trouble posed by randomness.
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