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Crypto currencies: my take and predictions (Read 519 times)

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Albalaha

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Crypto currencies: my take and predictions
February 17, 2018, 04:47:28 AM
Dear Friends,
                 We are in this forum for years. I wonder that none ever cared to talk about crypto currencies. I remember that about two years back, I asked Victor to do a programming for me and he asked me to pay by bitcoins. I could not get local resource to find bitcoin so easily, in my country then. However, I used Liberty Reserve too much which was also a virtual currency bought by exchanging for cash. Till that time I heard of bitcoin several times but never knew it has multiplied thousands of times by then. In 2017 January I saw bitcoin value going over $1000 and then got shocked to know how far it has gone but got afraid to buy Bitcoin still as I thought it could saturate but it didn't and bitcoin reached almost $20k. Suddenly, it became a rage when prices were rising over 10% a day. Then it felt more than half its best value and even gone below $8k. Now, it again is going up albeit at a controlled pace and at USD10,580 by the time I am writing this topic.
             I invested a bit in it when it tanked to its lowest price in 2018 along with Ripple, another promising crypto asset. I believe this year will be very crucial for cryptos. They will either go vanished this year or multiply again. Many experts predict bitcoin prices to go over 30-40k by the end of 2018 and ripple to touch upto $20 but in my opinion, it is merely speculation based upon history. It is very volatile thing and putting too much money into cryptos is not wise. I expect 50-100% growth in prices within a year, specially in ripple.
Who else is into investing or trading crypto assests? Speak up buddies.
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Lungyeh

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Met a guy in Spore, a fund manager who was explaining to me that the Millennials (the young people today)  think that its difficult to compete with the old rich, the old businesses which have been in existence for decades. But the millennials refuse to surrender n kow tow to the old establishment n that's why cryptocurrencies  like Bitcoin n Ethereum were invented. And now lots of companies raise funds through ICO ( a type of IPO but using cryptocurrencies). Which is like crowd funding except that u raise funds through cryptocurrencies n normally its of a higher amount.

I think cryptocurrencies will do well over time. Retail has been disrupted by amazon.com. Transport by Uber and the likes. Hotel by airBnB. Dining by Ubereats, foodpanda etc. The last bastion for disruption is the financial industry. And it will be disrupted by cryptocurrencies and ICOs. For as sure as the sun will rise tomorrow.

alrelax

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Pretty much correct LeungYeh.  Personally I would not put say  $50,000.00, $100,000.00, $250,000.00 in a cypto currency investment for my kids and leave it for a number of years.  Like most other things, that come and go, quicker and easier (safer?) to make the money when it is happening.  As far as longevity, too many things to happen first in several years, IMO.

The scariest thing and the most important thing, is to the best of my knowledge and info, there are no guarantees to get rid of any of them, can bust out and belly up at any time, at least that is what I read in multiple places. 

At least when I buy a stock, I might lose money if I have to sell but there are guarantees I can sell it, etc.  Investments are just that, what is the risk and what is the guarantee that I can sell it for 'whatever' is i have to or something with it takes a down turn???

The reasons here in the USA from everything I read, is the non-government backing of them, with that--that will bring a higher price of return and also a higher chance or risk of bust-out???  IMO, as an investor and the person that has to earn the money and then turn it over and take the risk. 

But the points you bring out about the younger crowd, view and reasons and whom they compete against are absolute and correct and great points.
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alrelax

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Investing also has to be viewed as 'control' and 'cashing out' and returns.

1) Go buy a stock like Google, Microsoft, General Motors, etc., it goes up, how much, how quick, etc., can I sell it to get my cash profit??

2) Go purchase equipment to go into business and work your rear-end of and provide something with good or great value that is needed or desired.  You set your own destiny based upon the market, your service or products, your value-pricing and running of your company, etc.  You always have the liquidation value of the equipment, property and other tangible assets you invested in when you began, etc.

3) Purchase and resell tangible assets, old muscle or antique cars, sports memorabilia, old-rare art-currency-other printed items, etc.  Have the knoweldge and the contacts and know what you are doing.  Be int he right spot at the right time, etc., etc. 

4) Invest in other possible investment streams, such as crypto currency, gambling, gambling teams-schemes-crews, etc., and other 'start-up nothing backing or guaranteeing them except verbal talk and promises.  What control and what level of risk can you take, afford, handle?? 

What I do know after 50 something years alive, a good 30 plus working and investing, is the easier-better-gold mine-no brain needed-make lots of money without risk or very little risk-etc., etc. etc, al carry super high risk and most of the time (most) a great loss of money.

I learned about 'Freedom Checks' and spend a good 1/2 day listening, learning, talking and researching it, I should have Face Time my little boy and played 'tiddly-winks' or got out my supply of transformers and call of duty (Halo) figures and played with him that day--it would have been a better use of 1/2 a day! 

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Played a minimum of 24,000 (Plus) shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

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Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

Lungyeh

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While I am not a poker player, I watch with amazement this company coinpoker.com raised I estimate, @US$65-70,000,000 in Ethereum. They had a pre ICO (Initial Coin Offering) opened for 4 days and then the ICO itself which was opened for about a week 2 months later.

Just to share with our fellow members here what is going on around us. We ignore at our own expense what is going on with the Millennials.

Albalaha

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Nevertheless, it is a rage in the world financials. Many countries even banned it or declared it unlawful if not illegal. Cryptos created thousands of new millionaires. Basically, crypto currencies are great for foreign remittances. Faster and economic than other conventional mediums. No foreign exchange fees. After plunging a lot, they are surging back. No wonder, online casinos are allowing them too. We need to see how long they sustain and how much their prices change. Blockchain emerged as more of an investment tool than mode of remittance. Will it change?
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esoito

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Great topic, Albalaha.

Blockchain technology is still very much in development, but those in the know are convinced it will change many markets and industries.

It exists quite separately from cryptocurrencies (cryptos).

However, cryptos use blockchain for its unique security functions that can -- amongst other things -- eliminate fraud.

Some (of many more) future uses for blockchains:

   *   Design a fully-automated supply chain management system. When a certain condition is reached, the appropriate action is taken. Imagine a factory that automatically orders supplies when it threatens to run out of them.

   *  Manage huge paper trails. Each step in the paper trail can be added as a new block in the chain, and checks can be placed to ensure all conditions have been met that are  needed to proceed.

   *   Exchange vital business information in real time. Every node can contribute to and access all the information in the blocks.

    *  Eliminate the middleman when dealing with others. The parties can interact directly and securely, by relying on the blockchain technology.

    *  Eliminate fraud. Irreversibility makes it fraud-resistant. In a proper setup, there is no way to make unauthorized changes in already approved blocks.


Can cryptos exist without a blockchain?

Sure can.

The crypto, IOTA, uses a "tangle" instead of a blockchain. It thereby dispenses with miners.

Interesting to note that high-profile names participating in its data market pilotincluding Microsoft, Deutsche Telekom, and Fujitsusuggest IOTA is onto something.


The crypto and blockchain genies are out of the bottle. Too late to put them back in!

I'll stick my neck out and predict they are not only here to stay, but will undergo massive development to become essential planks of future finance industries.


Albalaha

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Any prediction of short or long run?
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esoito

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Any prediction of short or long run?


I can only predict considerable volatility in both the long and the short runs.

That suggests to me that those who want to make some money could perhaps:

1   Learn to trade the markets sucessfully (i.e. more winning trades than losers)  because volatility and the trend are a trader's friend !

2  Avoid the cryptos as long-term investment.   


Please note my deliberate use of the word perhaps above. I'm not qualified to give financial advice.