Here is the question of the century !>!>!> Can a particular way of betting be "better" (not sure what word to use?) BUT the house edge stays EXACTLY the same? I am not asking for your style of play, I could careless.   

On a personal level, I feel I have a couple VERY good methods to play, we'll say 3 numbers.   Bob Smith the 21 year old goofball only plays the 2, 22 & 32, his favorite numbers and he swears by them, "they hit a lot" Bob says with a smile!

By the EXACT set of house edge rules, Bob is no different than me but I disagree. Can I explain myself, is my math better? Nope on both. I am excluding the AP guys that swear there is a slight tilt with the wheel blah blah blah, we'll leave them out of it for now.

So, lets say a poster says to another...."that won't work, the math doesn't lie" (I am 100% guilty of this myself), would that mean my method is no better than the very person I am correcting? (lol) Does the person doing the correcting even have a RIGHT to post a method? My head is spinning.

If a long time player does produce a DECENT profit with the same method over many years (not saying me) then that person, by definition, has a lower HE than 5.26% (00 wheel)? Can a person win LONG TERM and still play against the very same 5.26% that the rookie plays against?


Ken

I think for start we must define what is "in the long run" term first. IMHO it means an unlimited amount of years.

This is how I see it. Let's say we decide "itlr" is 1000 years. Divide it into 10 groups of 100 years each. Maybe in the first group of 100 years, the player's method you mentioned above perform very well. But in the 2nd group of 100 years next, yours method perform better.

The HE will remain the same for the period of 1000 years. But different methods produce different results.

Is this make sense? IMO yes. But maybe it's just me.

Thx

From my perspective there is not such a thing as independent results, if it was the case we would experience statistics which have never occurred in roulette's history and the casinos wouldn't be able to establish payouts according probability.

Probability is always valid but the gamblers' fallacy emerged by the unrealistic expectation of probability has to conform in the short term.

It would be true if there was no variance in the equation, many consider it as enemy, me as a great guide.

So the name is variance, not independence.

Another mistaken belief is that house edge is the only winner in the long term, perhaps you might want to reconsider...!

Let's say I go with the flow and back only what happens more than its probability, for the house edge to catch up with me all sections have to balance, which eventually happens but who said that I'll keep on betting something which is turning cold...

You have to realize that if one thing can make the difference this has to be the variance, variance is much greater player than house edge!

Quote from: Blue_Angel on February 24, 2016, 04:46:35 AM
From my perspective there is not such a thing as independent results, if it was the case we would experience statistics which have never occurred in roulette's history and the casinos wouldn't be able to establish payouts according probability.

BA, you still haven't understood the meaning of statistical independence. It doesn't mean outcomes can "do what they like". I've already explained this on the roulette30 forum.

QuoteCan a particular way of betting be "better" (not sure what word to use?)

Perhaps "more effective"? I get you Ken, you are asking if given that the game of roulette is a fixed-odds game, can any bet be labeled as better than the other? And the answer is... drum rolls... no... at least not officially.

On the side, players will aways label their own betting systems as "better", but that is a subjective opinion based on each player's personal experience.

QuoteBob Smith the 21 year old goofball only plays the 2, 22 & 32, his favorite numbers and he swears by them, "they hit a lot" Bob says with a smile!

I think bob missed something: "they hit a lot when I play". And that is the gist of the matter.

Bob can experience wonderful results with his stiff bet, and the next player from that casino playing the same roulette can get ruined by betting 2,22 & 32,  Unless he bets at the exact same time Bob does it.

Such is the nature of randomness.

The wonderful results are related to a set of spins happening during a particular time in a particular roulette wheel. Therefore we can also ask: "Is Bob's timing real?". It certainly is real for Bob. BTW I recently started a poll related to this very topic: http://betselection.cc/gambling-philosophy/is-the-time-line-real/

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Regarding the decent profits over many years, it can be seen as the player experiencing a positive deviation, not beating the game. Positive (and negative) deviations can last thousands upon thousands of spins.

As much as the casino with his positive edge and the APs can have long gaps when they lose (negative deviation), these decent profit wins by the player are simply regarded as positive deviations; never as the player truly "beating the game".

In the case of the casino, it is only a matter of leaving the table open for more spins until the deviation equalizes to what math dictates. Problem solved and back in profit.

In the case of the player, dead is the ultimate stop-win or stop-loss, so he/she may die in profit yet it doesn't mean he actually beat the math of the game, because more spins are required to make him go back to what math dictates. It's just that he won't play such games.

It can't be a timing issue of when to bet. Your HE is still the same(?) Give me an example of "timing", the HE is now lower than 5.26% (2.7%). This is the problem I have, I feel there are GREAT numbers to bet and at GREAT times to make those bets *BUT* according to the math, it makes no difference.

Another example >> you wait until one street has yet to hit, then start long progression on it. I can sit here and say, don't bet on sleepers, there is nothing special about the 13 14 15 etc., then I have my awesome method (3 numbers) .......according to the math, my 3 numbers are no better/worse than the guy chasing that street? (lol) Its mind boggling.

Ken

Quote from: Mr J on February 24, 2016, 08:59:42 PM
It can't be a timing issue of when to bet. Your HE is still the same(?) Give me an example of "timing", the HE is now lower than 5.26% (2.7%). This is the problem I have, I feel there are GREAT numbers to bet and at GREAT times to make those bets *BUT* according to the math, it makes no difference.

Another example >> you wait until one street has yet to hit, then start long progression on it. I can sit here and say, don't bet on sleepers, there is nothing special about the 13 14 15 etc., then I have my awesome method (3 numbers) .......according to the math, my 3 numbers are no better/worse than the guy chasing that street? (lol) Its mind boggling.

Ken

I agree in this one, timing can and it makes the difference between winners and losers.
I believe timing is everything, for example let's say that I always bet the same numbers, no matter what numbers I bet, eventually these numbers will disappear for long enough time.

Let's say I bet randomly number 24 and after 5 spins it hits and on the next day I'm betting the same number and it disappears for 400 spins, so what's number 24? Is it good or bad bet??

Red has the same HE as Black has but choosing one instead of the other can make the whole difference between win and loss.

From the other hand luck is good WHEN it's with us, BUT it's NOT always on our way.
Is there a way to control luck?
Would/could you control the outcomes?
Could you change the payouts?

If your answers are NO to the above questions, then you are on the right way, keep going.
So what do we really control?

When to start and to stop, bet selection and bet amount.
The factor "when" should determine the betting selection and the betting selection should determine the bet amount.

EVERY number is 100% certainty that it has appeared and will reappear sooner or later, so why not everybody wins?
There is a "distance" between our bet and the desired result, this distance cannot be overcomed by the most gamblers for the majority of the times.

What a progression does? Isn't that it tries to "bridge" our selection towards the desired result?
Therefore we are constantly striving for a balance between prediction precision and progression efficiency.

I consider the best strategies these which can deal even with very bad results, all of those have a common element: FLEXIBILITY!

IMO timing is a crucial factor. Spin/hand #3 and #4 have the same HE but different result. If #3 was red/player and #4 was black/banker, then with the same HE if we bet black/banker on the #4 hand/spin we will win vice versa.

The problem is how we determine when to hit the button?

But for flexibility factor I would consider it more with bet selection section. It means because no method is fit for all we're better not stick to one BS only, especially when the result was a few LIAR.