"law of averages" and the "law of large numbers"

GodOfThunder · December 03, 2014, 03:27:29 AM

What is the difference between the "law of averages" and the "law of large numbers".

Thanks

Bayes · December 03, 2014, 06:27:10 PM

The law of large numbers is a mathematical theorem which says that as you take more trials, the average value approaches the expectation. So betting one number, the "theoretical" expectation is 1/37 or 0.027, and the LLN says that after say 100 spins, the average might only be 0.015, but after 1000 spins, it will be closer to 0.027, and after 10,000 spins, it will be closer still.

The "law of averages" isn't a theorem, but more of a fallacy, and you could say it's akin to the gambler's fallacy. i.e., a gambler might think that "red has hit 10 times in a row, therefore, by the law of averages, black is now more likely to hit". Basically, it's saying that what is true in "the long term" is also true in the short term, which isn't the case.

Albalaha · December 09, 2014, 07:48:36 AM

"Law of averages" is expecting"law of large numbers" to work in short span, which is of course a fallacy. I must say that "law of averages" has caused the biggest losses to lesser educated gamblers than anything else. This fallacy is mainly responsible for unwise money management techniques like martingale, labouchere etc in gambling wherein one can risk entire money on earth to win just 1 unit and still without any guarantee to win back that 1 unit.
To understand both concepts clearly, you may refer to this:- http://albalaha.lefora.com/topic/17231561/Reality-of-Law-of-large-numbers#.VIaoD9KUdA4

alrelax · December 09, 2014, 01:52:03 PM

Quote from: Bayes on December 03, 2014, 06:27:10 PM
Basically, it's saying that what is true in "the long term" is also true in the short term, which isn't the case.

Long term may or may not happen in the corresponding long term results record being recorded as you play. Likewise the short term results may or may not happen according to previously recorded short term results while you play the short term.

I still say play 2,000 or 5,000 or 10,000 shoes and the results will always be different. In random games, they factually have to be.

Albalaha · December 09, 2014, 02:07:43 PM

@alrelax,
Buddy. You might consider "long run" as a hypothesis and a long stretch of thousands or hundreds of thousands of spins that you may think that you will never face but in reality, you can face the worst of millions spins in your very first hour of play or you may not see that ever.
We consider long run simulation as standard simulation because long run is made of many small sessions. If you have seen 3 millions spins of German casinos, they are not collected in a stretch but upon different tables over years. When we talk of analyzing the games with any given "logic", statistics and probability (physics too, for "advantage players") come to guide us. They need not make us big winners but surely saves us from losing foolishly with ideas based upon fallacies like "law of averages".

GodOfThunder · December 13, 2014, 03:05:21 AM

Thanks Bayes. So basically we can disregard the "law of averages" and concentrate on the "law of large numbers".

Gizmotron · January 30, 2015, 11:35:07 PM

Quote from: GodOfThunder on December 13, 2014, 03:05:21 AM
Thanks Bayes. So basically we can disregard the "law of averages" and concentrate on the "law of large numbers".

Forget about the "law of averages" and the "law of large numbers". Consider the coincidences of characteristics and sequences of random events.

Gizmotron · November 13, 2015, 05:18:42 PM

Quote from: Gizmotron on January 30, 2015, 11:35:07 PM
Forget about the "law of averages" and the "law of large numbers". Consider the coincidences of characteristics and sequences of random events.

I know this sounds smarmy and possibly condescending. So, let me elaborate. I know many of you have been searching for an advantage or an edge to take into the casino. I have searched for decades to find such an advantage. Coincidences that occurred more than twenty five years ago put me on the path I'm on now. I'm giving clues because that is the way that I decided to share this. Nobody, but one other person, has given me any clues. Many of you know who that person was over the past ten years. Spike was right regarding one thing that I was doing differently. Spike saw advantage in the short term. I saw advantage in the longer "Global Effect" range of spins. In the past year I have discovered that Spike was on to something that I have ignored for decades. I have since utilized the big picture combined with the shorter term to force the exposure of characteristics that I prefer to take advantage of. Please don't ask what those characteristics are. Figure it out for yourself. When you work for something you will value it more.

Please don't complain. Nobody gave me any clues but Spike. That hint took me from doing very well to an almost level of astonishment that I find far more amusing. Perhaps you are not amused by my comment? Roulette has been around for more than two hundred years, and in all that time, it has never been taken advantage of. I know that I have it. I just want to exploit it some more before I fully disclose it. Anyone here can take what I have already disclosed, add their own take on what I have hinted at regarding three triggers, and take advantage themselves. This is the best way to do this. If you have questions about what I have already written I will try to direct you to the answers that have already been given.

Enjoy

klw · November 13, 2015, 10:19:34 PM

705 posts is going to take some reading and it won't be my first time to read all your posts, digesting it all correctly and using it is another matter. Any direction would be much appreciated. Where do we start ?

Gizmotron · November 14, 2015, 05:48:22 PM

Quote from: klw on November 13, 2015, 10:19:34 PM
705 posts is going to take some reading and it won't be my first time to read all your posts, digesting it all correctly and using it is another matter. Any direction would be much appreciated. Where do we start ?

I would start with these:

Here is where I put some stuff that is not exactly in my section of sub-forums:

http://betselection.cc/meta-selection/the-simple-explanation-attacking-trends

Here is the global effect:

http://betselection.cc/gizmotron/the-global-effect-what-is-it

I put hints in other threads on purpose. They are hard to find by design. It's easier to find my clues here than it is to find them out by the school of hard nocks, on your own, the way I learned them.

klw · November 14, 2015, 10:18:38 PM

Thanks for those links.

I have read them , again. I have had Nick code me a couple of excel sheets to assist me with your ideas in the past , maybe I am just not clever enough,maybe just simply not " getting " it but I couldn't make it pay. It's not as if I havn't put the hours into this.

Where do I go from here ?

Gizmotron · November 18, 2015, 04:16:31 PM

Quote from: klw on November 14, 2015, 10:18:38 PM
Thanks for those links.

I have read them , again. I have had Nick code me a couple of excel sheets to assist me with your ideas in the past , maybe I am just not clever enough,maybe just simply not " getting " it but I couldn't make it pay. It's not as if I havn't put the hours into this.

Where do I go from here ?

I'm sorry but I'm keeping that to myself.

You can't make it pay, as you say. You have to let opportunity come to you. You must find a way to wait for the time to attack. One of my posts shows how long you have to wait for sleepers to line up just right. You need a method to recoup your tries, while waiting for the attack. Try to stay even. Don't descend into deep losses. Get out at a reasonable amount for your effort. You can become a millionaire with just three units ahead for each session.

Jimske · November 18, 2015, 09:54:41 PM

Quote from: Gizmotron on November 18, 2015, 04:16:31 PM
I'm sorry but I'm keeping that to myself.

Awwwwww! And here I was holding my breath!

QuoteYou can't make it pay, as you say. You have to let opportunity come to you. You must find a way to wait for the time to attack. One of my posts shows how long you have to wait for sleepers to line up just right. You need a method to recoup your tries, while waiting for the attack. Try to stay even. Don't descend into deep losses. Get out at a reasonable amount for your effort. You can become a millionaire with just three units ahead for each session.

Giz is going a LONG way around just to say, "Let the force be with you." "Get in the zone."

Millionaire? That's a stretch ain't it, Giz. You got ask yourself if you got the kind of risk bank to make millions with just 3 units a session WHY ARE YOU GAMBLING? Aren't you better off using a price cost averaging algorithm in a diverse portfolio?

Serious question, Giz. How long is a session? 1 hour? 5 hours? 3 units per how much time?

J

klw · November 19, 2015, 10:57:09 AM

Session length is 1 of my questions as well. I am of the opinion that something is always setting up in a dozen spins or so a la Kimo Li and know when to quit so that is where my focus is at the moment.

3 units is fine by me, consistency is the key so that you can move up the bet sizes.

Gizmotron · November 19, 2015, 06:39:03 PM

Quote from: Jimske on November 18, 2015, 09:54:41 PM

Giz is going a LONG way around just to say, "Let the force be with you." "Get in the zone."

Millionaire? That's a stretch ain't it, Giz. You got ask yourself if you got the kind of risk bank to make millions with just 3 units a session WHY ARE YOU GAMBLING? Aren't you better off using a price cost averaging algorithm in a diverse portfolio?

Serious question, Giz. How long is a session? 1 hour? 5 hours? 3 units per how much time?

J

Here it is, right in front of you, from another thread:

Quote from: Gizmotron on November 10, 2015, 10:57:29 PM

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Can you see it phasing in and out of winning dominance streaks? I can. This is typical of what I see, using my three triggers.

3 X $350 = $1,050 per session. This is an amount low enough to not attract too much attention. Do this on average of three years, one session per day, and you are a millionaire. Of course you will need to go to a lot of different casinos so as to not attract a lot of attention.

You could take a few months to work your way up to a bankroll that supports two $350 bets for each attacking spins.