The way I plan it, and execute it.


I have one rule. Bet on the best looking trend.


From that tactic alone comes the skill of guessing. You can't know in advance if it will work or not. But after the cards are down, the dice are rolled, or the spin stops in a slot you will have your answer.


I use rule 1 to get that answer. It's the answer, the result of the bet, that I'm interested in making my MM guesses from.


I need to know if what is happening is good for my bankroll or bad for my bankroll. My goal is to win a few more outcomes than I have lost, nothing more. So, if the first bet wins then that is good for my bankroll. If it losses then it means I will need a win for every loss until I'm back to even.


So the conditions of the game dictate the knowledge to be aware of, as it occurs. I want to win the session. If I feed a bad streak, where every bet is placed on the best looking trend to continue, and it ends, then I'm in a streak of ending trends. I don't want to feed that. And I won't feed that. Now this happens all the time in gambling. You must know how to live with your losses. It's not the only condition though.


You must also know how to live with your wins. They are just a passing phase too. Nothing more. You bet on the best looking trend and it works.


There is one thing to keep in mind if you are smart. When a streak of trends all end as you first try them, they all end and they are done. Hit a few endings on first tries back to back and you should pull back to a minimum table limit sized bet. Wait until the bad streak of results comes to and end.


Now for the good streaks. When they keep going it can be for 1 time in a row, 2 times in a row, 3 times in a row, etc... They win just once and it cancels any upcoming losing bet that is inevitable. So you take the chance that it will continue. You can't know in advance that it will work. But it will be part of the results trend that you are really following. I have found that the win streaks last longer than the losing streaks, based on rule 1 of betting on the best looking trend. If I get three net wins on my big bet level, I'm done. For me it is a mistake to try to kill off the casino with 20 black or red numbers in a row. Same goes for streaks in the other games too.


Knowing how to live with the results of guessing is as important as seeing the best looking trend. My charts make it easy to see the best looking trends. You don't chase your losses. You let them come back to you by waiting for the trends to start working. They work, they don't work. The point is in learning how to use them to your advantage. Think of all this as if the whole session is the tactic and not moment by moment reactions. Make movements and changes based on the big swings. There's the down swing followed by a flat swing or an up swing. They are all caused to occur because of rule 1.


From this you will find that a few best trends are gold mine opportunities. They get you to your goal real fast. The only question is can you play a game that depends on big deal trends in order to win your goal. Is your goal too high? Mine was. -- not now.

Thank you for your time, great input, sharing and experience.  Defined, honest and available to those that are searching for advantages as well as disadvantages to gauge from.  I will vouch for Mark and the content of the 100% realism and possibilities of what he just wrote.

Thanks, Glen.

Hey Giz;
On a bus shuttle from The Orleans to the Palms, in Las Vegas,  I remember a gentleman, reminding me that when it comes to being successful in casino gambling, "The trend is your friend."

So simple. So profound. And now many years later I have the privilege of hearing you, restate the same principle.

Thanks for the positive, and informative reinforcement.

Garry

Trends are meaningless in a random game, and can only be identified after the event.

Quote from: Mike on June 07, 2018, 12:46:54 PM
Trends are meaningless in a random game, and can only be identified after the event.

Nice one Captain Obvious. And thanks for agreeing with me. Glad I could help.


I use trends specifically to identify information after the event. And yes, they are meaningless. It's just that some things are more meaningless than others, considering all things being equal that is.

Hi Mike;

"Trends are meaningless in a random game, and can only be identified after the event. "

Of course you are technically correct, but practically in a random game like Baccarat, what else to do we have but past results to make an intelligent, informed guess ?

Mike, I also believe it is totally true that you can not predict with mathematical certainty the next event of a random game. However it is also true that the random game creates a series of outcomes that do arrange themselves in patterns which may be useful in bet selection.

Perfect predictions --NO. Helpful indicators -- PERHAPS.

in reality we only have to increase our bet selection process ever so little to become profitable and if random patterns can be utilized then it makes sense to use them, wouldn't you agree ? 

(Now if we could create a mathematical algorithm..)

Quote from: owenslv on June 08, 2018, 03:07:36 AM
Hi Mike;

"Trends are meaningless in a random game, and can only be identified after the event. "

But as I have written about, it has extremely helped me profit at the game of Baccarat with what has yet to happen, might happen, usually does happen quite often, happens and yes sometimes does not.  But I have profited very well as I have shown the last couple of months in my writings on this board with exactly what you started your post off with. Thinking sideways, coming back into the game with complete open Vision will help you tremendously, I believe.

Why??  Because simply  the game and the presentments does not stay idle, neutral and the same simply .  All it takes is experience to realize what is probably going to happen. Thank you.

Quote from: owenslv on June 08, 2018, 03:07:36 AM
Hi Mike;

"Trends are meaningless in a random game, and can only be identified after the event. "

Of course you are technically correct, but practically in a random game like Baccarat, what else to do we have but past results to make an intelligent, informed guess ?

Past results aren't useless, but it depends how you use them. If you use past results to find out something about the distribution of outcomes for the purpose of creating some kind of probability/betting model, that's fine. But if your analysis of past results (ie, the model) shows that that past outcomes don't influence future outcomes, but then bet as if they DO, isn't that just foolish? You have ignored what the data has shown you in favour of a cognitive bias.

It reminds me of the so-called "streetlight effect" :

QuoteThe streetlight effect is a type of observational bias that occurs when people only search for something where it is easiest to look.

It is also called a drunkard's search, after the joke about a drunkard who is searching for something he has lost:

A policeman sees a drunk man searching for something under a streetlight and asks what the drunk has lost. He says he lost his keys and they both look under the streetlight together. After a few minutes the policeman asks if he is sure he lost them here, and the drunk replies, no, and that he lost them in the park. The policeman asks why he is searching here, and the drunk replies, "this is where the light is"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Streetlight_effect

If you like following trends, by all means do it. It's no WORSE than any other way of choosing what to bet on next. Just don't kid yourself that it actually makes a difference. If you disagree, please show me the evidence that trends have any validity. 

Quote from: Mike on June 08, 2018, 08:23:59 AM

If you like following trends, by all means do it. It's no WORSE than any other way of choosing what to bet on next. Just don't kid yourself that it actually makes a difference. If you disagree, please show me the evidence that trends have any validity. 

OK Mike, I'll show you. I've been trying to show you guys for more than 12 years. If you want to see this in Blackjack, Baccarat, or Craps you won't see the amazing phenomenon but perhaps once every 2 months, and that's if you play for more than four hours every day. Now I have 12 sets of even chance, 18 - 20's, making up 6 groups as well as 12 sets of unique dozens making up 4 groups to find these occurrences from. So I see these amazing trends about every four or five days that I play. I see them because I know that they are the most valuable opportunity that randomness has to offer. I've seen them go on for more than four and one half hours one time. But they have a typical commonness to the average ones. To me they are a sign reading "time to rob the casino." To you they are a concept that you must denigrate out of the possibility of the exposure that you are just another common nitwit.


I see these things everywhere I go. I always capitalize on them when they happen. Can you guess what it is? Do you actually know what they act like? For a guy that hopes to find an edge because of a physical cause, you, of all people, should be an expert at these. I'm telling you that they are the biggest edge in gambling. But you see nothing. So I look at you and your clowning around with the what is real stuff in this world act and I'm always amused by your sinking ship alarm and the rearranging of the deck chairs. You are blind. I want you to see so you will shut your trap. But you like being a pest. It will just be too bad if you find out all this too late. Humor, that is what comes to mind when I think of you mathBoyz.

QuoteOK Mike, I'll show you. I've been trying to show you guys for more than 12 years.

OK, so where's the proof?  We're still waiting. 

QuoteHumor, that is what comes to mind when I think of you mathBoyz.

Funny, that's what comes to our minds too when we think of the people that "literboyz" but that aren't "mathboyz" as well.  Since you've taken the time to learn how to read, perhaps you could spend a little bit more time and learn some math as well? 

Quote from: Xander on June 09, 2018, 12:29:13 AM
OK, so where's the proof?  We're still waiting. 

Funny, that's what comes to our minds too when we think of the people that "literboyz" but that aren't "mathboyz" as well.  Since you've taken the time to learn how to read, perhaps you could spend a little bit more time and learn some math as well? 

Don't you soothsayers know that you can't beat Roulette with math? You have to use something else. I told you where the proof is. You don't want to find it? You don't want to see it. That is not my problem. It's right in front of you. I even drew a map. I discovered it and shared it with the world. All it did was make cow birthing experts out of you all. You guys used other people's formulas and algorithms to grandstand on the backs of dead people with absolutely totally dead ideas. If an original thought were to pass through your heads I doubt that it would make contact with any obstructions. Now lean on the favorite word "fallacy." It's like watching a monkey drool like Pavlov's dog. Time to rewrite the books.

Gizmo,

Again, where's the proof?  Mike and I'd both like to see it. 

Xander,

What did you do to get moderated? Gizmo indulges in personal attacks against us but isn't moderated. You're an expert on bias, what do you think? I think mathboyz like us aren't welcome in this forum.

Keeping the thread on topic, if there are any so called math oriented frequentist left around here there is one thing that should be addressed. The Global Effect occurs. It gives the aware player an almost or near perfect continuous win streak that tends to last from 30 minutes to several hours. Putting blinders on in order to pretend that they don't exist does not prevent them from occurring. So if you are so smart when it comes to probability and all that it would imply, go ahead and show us the math for explaining the Global Effect. Perhaps it already has another name? My guess is that it is an original idea. I'd like credit for that. 12 years is a very long time on these forums. I've known that the mathBoyz have been wrong all this time.


Now let's see some fallacy chanting. I want to see full blown protection of your fake opinions. Stop running and hiding. All I get is a best impression of Claude Rains, meets Tommy from the Pinball Wizard. You demand proof. Use that space between your ears. That is where the most convincing proof of all will occur.


Explain the Global Effect.


This should get funny.

Can you elucidate "Global Effect"? Can you illustrate the "occurrence of global effect" with an example of baccarat or roulette. I tried many search engines to know about "global effect", and I could not come with any answer. Perhaps this is a new Science that is being developed by you.