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[esoito]

A question for the experienced horse race bettors:

If you developed a selection system that gave you about a 44% strike rate for wins and around 77% for places, what would be your reaction?

No -- I'm not trying to flog anything! Just curious...

[vo rogue]

hi esoito,i would ask what is the average price of the winners,and from how many selectins is the 44% from.
say 44% win strike rate at $3.00 would give you a nice 32% profit on turnover. if this strike holds up over say 100 selections or more , you have a real goer.best of luck  that one[smiley]aes/lol.png[/smiley].

[esoito]

hi esoito,

Hi VR
A BIG welcome to you as a new member. 

Thanks for your interest and pertinent observations.


i would ask what is the average price of the winners,and from how many selectins is the 44% from.
say 44% win strike rate at $3.00 would give you a nice 32% profit on turnover.

The strike-percentages translate to a breakeven price of 2.28 (100/44) for win bets and 1.30 (100/77) for place bets.

So accepting smaller prices is the path to the poorhouse. Accepting better prices is the gold-plated path to unlimited wealth...   (He said drily.)

if this strike holds up over say 100 selections or more , you have a real goer.best of luck  that one[smiley]aes/lol.png[/smiley].

Ah -- and there's the sticking point, hmmm?   IF (yes, our old friend, the "conditional if" )...if it holds up...

However, although not wanting to publicly reveal full details, and at the risk of sounding over-confident (if not somewhat naive to some), I can confidently say that, given the nature of the selection method, it's likely to hold up indefinitely.

But having said that, and as we both know, the only certainty is uncertainty! 

Still, I've more than doubled the bank from 22 October to 02 November betting just 6 days for about an hour a day on no more than 5 races. So it's growing legs.

Interesting times we live in.

Thanks again for your input.

[greenguy]

vo rogue!

Now there's a blast from the past. What a great horse he was.

Not as good as lohnro, but pretty good!


A 44% strike rate is a luxury not afforded many punters, though you could still be on the receiving end of long losing streaks of 10 or more, so if using a progression careful steps are still very important.


I would suggest a few things.

Being privy to a solid strike rate like 44% would justify making the effort to learn how to frame your own market, or at least set your own price for each selected horse. Then in time introduce an up as you lose progression calculated around your own market/price assessment. The fine tuning of such a progression would evolve itself, but as an example, you would bet a default stake (like flat betting) on each selection, but when any selection is showing a return of around 30% above your estimated price then you calculate (at your price) the amount needed to recover any outstanding losses and bet that amount on top of the default amount. This ensures any overpriced winner will recover your losses and give you around 30% profit for the sequence.

[esoito]

Thank you very much indeed, Greenguy, for your suggestions. I appreciate the time you took to put that helpful post together. 

I've been using a program I wrote to calculate bets based on a very modest target per race, so that a recovery progression did not get out-of-hand too soon.

I'm not a fan of progressions but given the high strike rate(s) I felt it worth giving it a go.

And each recovery-bet also included a small increment added on to it so each race 'paid its way', so to speak.

I started with a bank of $25 and it now sits on $55.13.  The target set was a conservative 50c per race with a 10c increment added to each recovery bet.

At some point the target and increment will be increased slightly -- haven't yet quite decided by how much and when.  I'm pretty cautious in such things because I know how the dreaded run of outs can suddenly arrive and drain the bank if targets and so on are set too high!

Funnily enough 'd been wondering about framing a market, and I've been exploring the code needed to modify the software accordingly.

That's taxing the grey matter but I'll get there because, like you, I think that's a good way to move forward.

Thanks again.

[vo rogue]

esoito thanks for the avatar my fav horse.greenguy is spot on you must price your selections,you could use the old double overlay methed (bet when you can obtain twice your rated price).
greenguy vo rogue would take care of lohnro any day of the week. l must "Signoff" now i have to get my melbourne cup bet on. all the best[smiley]aes/joking.png[/smiley]

[greenguy]

Nice to see we have a "mutual regard" for the great racehorse, Vo Rogue.[smiley]aes/lol.png[/smiley]

[esoito]

re: Framing a market

I've now managed to convert my selection criteria into points per horse.

Then, based on the total points overall, I've worrked out how to convert each individual horse's points into a price.

Some of you might care to venture an opinion about one area of uncertainty that remains.

It's this...

In, say, a 10-runner race, only 6 horses might be allocated points.

The other 4 have zero points.

But given that every runner has a chance (albeit very, very slim in some cases) then

* should I allocate limited token-points to the other 4?

Or

* should I simply continue to leave the other 4 without any points at all?

*  And if you think each of the 4 should get points, then how many?


I ask because these three decisions affect the rated prices generated, to some degree.

[vo rogue]

g'day esoito  i would leave those without points out of your market, if your  factors for points allocation are strong,no pointers need to be taken on, you can reassess in future if no pointers cause you grief.
i enjoyed good returns when framing my own markets using a points allocation for per tinant factors of form,why did i stop got married had no time for hours of pricing,i miss it,no better feeling when your 4-1 chance comes home at 20-1.i know there's always a divorce option i miss the track.[smiley]aes/thumb.png[/smiley]

[esoito]

g'day esoito  i would leave those without points out of your market, if your  factors for points allocation are strong,no pointers need to be taken on, you can reassess in future if no pointers cause you grief.

A good point (pun intended  )

I'll take your advice and see how things pan out.



i enjoyed good returns when framing my own markets using a points allocation for per tinant factors of form,why did i stop got married had no time for hours of pricing,i miss it,no better feeling when your 4-1 chance comes home at 20-1.

I once subscribed to a ratings service so I know what you mean about the undiluted pleasure when a value bet romped home at good odds. 

i know there's always a divorce option i miss the track.[smiley]aes/thumb.png[/smiley]

LOLOL...mate, having a happy marriage with the  'right' person is a better bet!  Can you not negotiate a day a week for your racing?

Thanks for your feedback -- very helpful.