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[Bally6354]

Here goes!

You first need a copy of the Racing Post.

I know they have an online version of it. I am not 100% sure if it is in the same format as what they put up on the walls in the bookmakers.

But anyway....

They nominate 2 greyhound meetings during the day as the 'Trap Challenge'.

The Racing Post form guide give 3 selections in each race for Tri-cast purposes.

So you need to give 3 points to each dog who they select to finish 1st.

2 points to each dog who they select to finish 2nd.

1 point to the dog who they select to finish 3rd.

Now they also have sectional times for the dogs and tell you what position the dog is in at each bend of the race.

All we are are interested in is the dogs position at the first bend. This is a crucial bit of information because you would be surprised how many dogs win who get the early lead and avoid any trouble in running which happens frequently.

Give any dog that you have gave points to an additional 1 point if it was 1st at the first bend in its last race.

Now you will normally find a clear selection on points after going through the card.

I have had times when a trap selection is 15-20 points clear of the next trap.

This to me is like a strong favourite in any particular race. But the great thing about it is that we are not going to get the same skinny price.

I had 2 last week that won at 4/1 and 9/2.

I will give an example sometime over the next few days of exactly how I arrive at my figures and show the betting forecast.

cheers.

[Bally6354]

Another thing to add....

There are times when there is only a point or two between the first and second best on ratings.

Let's say trap 3 has 36 points and trap 6 has 35 points.

Trap 3 may be 7/2 and trap 6 may be 6/1.

I often go for the larger price. You could back one and have a small saver on the other if you liked or just dutch the two of them.

It also seems to perform better in the winter months.

My mates theory is the quicker starting dogs have a decided edge over the slower dogs at some of the tracks with shorter distances. It takes some of them time to warm up and this inevitably leads to them finding trouble in running and the winner has already flown.

cheers. 

[Bally6354]

Here are the ratings for today 14/2/13.

The afternoon trap challenge is at Romford and Crayford.

My ratings for the dogs are as follows....

Trap 1) 28 points (no bonus points) = 28 points.
Trap 2) 24 points (1 bonus point) = 25 points.
Trap 3) 33 points (4 bonus points) = 37 points.
Trap 4) 30 points (4 bonus points) = 34 points.
Trap 5) 30 points (4 bonus points) = 34 points.
Trap 6) 23 points (no bonus points) = 23 points.

Here is the betting show with William Hill.

Trap 1. 9/2
Trap 2. 11/2
Trap 3. 11/4
Trap 4. 9/2
Trap 5. 11/2
Trap 6. 7/2

I can't understand why Trap 6 is second favourite considering it has the lowest points tally of all the dogs. They normally throw a bad one in at the top end of the market.

The top rated 3 is the favourite today at 11/4 and I don't like taking less than 3/1 about this particular type of bet.

Trap 4 looks better at 9/2 and represents a bit of value. It has the same points tally as Trap 5 however I notice there are a lot more quick starters in the 4 box over the 5.

My advice today would be a 1 point win bet on Trap 4 to win the trap challenge with maybe a small saver bet on trap 3 just to recoup the stakes should that win.

cheers. 

[Bally6354]

Another thing to note is that it pays to shop around at different online bookmakers.

Corals prices for Trap 3 and Trap 4 are only 5/2 and 7/2 respectively.

You can sometimes get the best of both worlds if you are dutching and use different bookmakers. Every little bit extra helps!

I have found William Hill to generally offer the better prices when it comes to the trap challenge.

Corals got taken over recently and have become a right bunch of greedy **** 

[Superman]

Greyhound racing is very difficult to work out, so difficult infact that the favourites only have a hit/win rate less than 30% over time. We must remember the clerk of the course, if that's what he's called, places 6 dogs in each race that are as close as possible and each dog stands the same chance to win as the mut does, the odds are calculated to cover each eventuallity of the result.

@ Bally6354, I've heard of the trap challenge but never looked into it but have studied greyhounds for a few years now and decided that its much more involved than just using form guide predictions. If you look at racing post predictions they contradict their own guesses for each race already, the flash predictor rarely shows the same result as their post pick, which already should ring alarm bells. Also they provide so much useless information such as trap stats, these are all to confuse the gambler in making a decision, there's 2 ways I am NOW monitoring on greyhounds and gathering data each day, I have my own bot that gathers the data for each dog and produces what THE DOG STATS alone say the outcome will/should be, heres what 1 race looks like

Belle Vue 1,4,3,2,5,6

This says 1 is the worst dog and 6 is likely to win, the above race finished 6-5, fairly good BUT would have lost on the win/lose market, would have worked on the Place market but not often enough so currently I am working with the FC market with laying in mind, only problem here is the liquidity which keeps lay odds high.

My bot does many things to reach a verdict one of them is mapping the categories the dog has jumped between over its whole racing career, as we know when a new dog arrives it is first Time tested, usually a solo event so they can calculate where its at over a set distance, let's say it falls into the A8 category, if it wins the very 1st race and had no bumps etc it will move up a category next week, if it had bumps and came second it will stay in that category, if it came last without bumps or upset it may drop to A9 next time out. Mapping this is fairly straight forward and you can see by graphing it where the dog is at currently, another thing I check is the traps either side of each dog, quick starters etc is the dog likely to stay wide or aim for the rails, does it gain ground if it falls behind etc etc etc there's a lot going on in the bot BUT I haven't changed any calculations for about 4 months now.

Dishlickers = difficult gambling

[Bally6354]

Dishlickers = difficult gambling

You are not wrong there Superman!

There are just so many different ways to study the form.

Some guys just stick to the same track and spend hours studying the videos.

The Sheffield dogs are as bent as a 9 bob note and you can just follow the market.

It is certainly not my forte by any stretch. I think the odds for the most part are terrible value and you could go broke quickly if you had no clue.

Now on saying all that.. this trap challenge formula seems pretty consistent. I never knew I could get the stats online and so I will give it a proper workout over the next few weeks just to see how it performs.

The bot sounds good taking all those variables into account.

Who needs roulette 

We have football, dogs, forex etc....

(only joking)

[esoito]

"All we are are interested in is the dogs position at the first bend. This is a crucial bit of information because you would be surprised how many dogs win who get the early lead and avoid any trouble in running which happens frequently."

And that is exactly what underpins the very successful WOFS approach in the US.

http://www.theracingconsultant.com/wofs.shtml

I can say from personal experience that it is successful as I own the system.

[Robeenhuut]

"All we are are interested in is the dogs position at the first bend. This is a crucial bit of information because you would be surprised how many dogs win who get the early lead and avoid any trouble in running which happens frequently."

And that is exactly what underpins the very successful WOFS approach in the US.

http://www.theracingconsultant.com/wofs.shtml

I can say from personal experience that it is successful as I own the system.

what's your ROI and how much did you pay for it?

[Superman]

"All we are are interested in is the dogs position at the first bend. This is a crucial bit of information because you would be surprised how many dogs win who get the early lead and avoid any trouble in running which happens frequently."

Yeah I've looked into this, it's only about 10% of the whole equation, too many dogs are SAw but get caught and passed too often even if they have EP the most promising time this can work is when the dog is Trap 1 or Trap 2, if it's in Trap 2 then Trap 1 should be a slow starter, again if we were working with Trap 2 we also need to know if it heads for the rails or stays wide.

there's software called BAGS beater here in the UK, load of stuff, nice graphics but otherwise useless if you want consistent winnings, all it does is take the Split time and shows a nice graphic display of where each dog will be at the first bend, rubbish, as so much bumping and barging takes place in the first half of any race, think for yourself, the dogs are chasing the hare, wheres the hare? on the rails next to Trap 1

Split time is no way all you need to know.

[Bally6354]

Well yesterday was a loss.

On to today and Trap 6 is well clear on my points tally.

The Trap Challenge today (15th February) is at Swindon + Monmore.

The price for Trap 6 with William Hill is 7/2. (3/1 with Coral's  )

My advice is a 1 point win on Trap 6 to win todays Trap Challenge.

Day 1. LOSS.  -1 1/2 points. (I am including the saver bet I suggested on Trap 3)

cheers 

[Robeenhuut]

Last time i checked the price for this was 2500$ 

[Bally6354]

You need to be careful of some of these guys selling software.

There is an outfit in Harrogate calling themself Brimardon Racing (horseracing) and they charge a fortune as well. We can all pick our own losers. 

There are a lot of sites on the net that can teach you how to compile your own ratings.

[Robeenhuut]

You need to be careful of some of these guys selling software.

There is an outfit in Harrogate calling themself Brimardon Racing (horseracing) and they charge a fortune as well. We can all pick our own losers. 

There are a lot of sites on the net that can teach you how to compile your own ratings.

Yeah

You right. But 2500$ seems to be an excessive proposition. Anyway do your own research first 

[Bally6354]

Yesterday resulted in a 1 point loss.

So I am down 2 1/2 points so far.

Today the Trap Challenge is at Newcastle +Poole.

Trap 3 is 20 points clear on my ratings and I make it a strong bet.

Trap 5 is also a good few points clear of the other 4 dogs if I take out Trap 3.

So my bets for today are as follows.....

2 point win on Trap 3 which is 7/2 with William Hill.

1 point win on trap 5 which is 9/2 with William Hill.

Trap 3 will be the icing on the cake or Trap 5 will take me back to all level for this particular challenge.

I really can't see past 3 or 5 today.

cheers.

[Bally6354]

Corals are only going 11/4 for Trap 3 and a really stingy 10/3 for trap 5.

I didn't really explain how the results are worked out.

You take the first 14 races from each meeting and give 1 point to the winning trap.

The winner of the Trap Challenge is the dog with the most points.

Of course you can get a tie and I have had a triple dead heat once.

You just half your stake on a tie.

Example.....

You put £10 on a 4/1 selection.

Half of that is £5 going on at 4/1. Return = £25.

A triple dead heat and you would divide your stake by a third.

cheers.