Laying

[Leapyfrog]

Laying the horse is not the same as backing the horse some say. Some say the skills required are different, the approach required is different and the money required is different. There are similarities but at the same time there are differences. I will try to pull together my thoughts around laying and my attempt at this stream of horse racing in this topic. I am sure there are successful layers in this forum and there will be an odd one who will pitch in.

What is my understanding of laying
First of all I thought I will get my understanding of laying right. Laying is when you bet for an outcome to lose. Lets say there are 4 horses in a race. If you bet for horse 1 to win it is called backing. If you bet for a horse 1 to lose, it is called laying.

How does the payout work
Frankel is a horse which is running a race as a favourite on odds of 1.28. This means that if you back the horse for winning a 100 bet will return you 28. However if you want to lay Frankel, then the reverse happens with the same equation. You will pay out 28 if the horse wins and win 100 if the horse loses

See another example. Horse Chookies lass is running the race at 4.0. If you back this horse with 100, you will gain 300 if the horse wins. However if you want to lay, the reverse works. A win will result in you losing 300 and a loss of this horse will result in you netting 100.

A simple formula is dividing from 100 the odds and then subtracting from 100 to see the amount you will invest.  For example for odds of 4.0

100/4.0 = 25 the amount you will win
100- 100/4.0 = 75 the amount you will lose if your selection wins.

I hope my understanding is right.

[esoito]

Laying always involves a liability. That's the amount that you are liable to pay out of your account to the winner should the horse be unreasonable enough to actually win.

Before laying anything always calculate your liability first. (See Formula 1 below)

The smaller the price on offer the smaller your liability; the bigger the price on offer the greater your liability.

Many horse racing punters love to lay odds-on shots.

Why?

Simply because:

• Odds-on shots most certainly do lose quite often

• Liability as odds-on layers is always less than our stake

• Returns for successful odds-on lays are always greater than our stake


To improve your chances laying odds-on:

• Look for races with a couple or more close threats priced under 10.00 -- the more the better.

• Look for races on heavy tracks -- the wetter the better.



Here are two easy formulas to keep on your desktop.


Formula 1:  Calculate your liability for a specific stake

  Liability = (Decimal Odds - 1) * Lay Stake


Formula 2:  Calculate your stake for a specific liability

  Lay Stake = Liability / (Decimal Odds - 1)



[For more information see here:  http://betselection.cc/horse-racing-forum/laying-to-lose/ ]

[Schoolman]

If you're interested in laying and are thinking about a staking plan, you could do worse than Maria's method.

[esoito]

Yes, her staking plan is good. 

And here's software to make it easy to use: http://www.maria-5.com/

[Leapyfrog]

Thanks Schoolman and esoito. I read through the staking plan.

First look, it is very rigid. Second look, I feel something is basically wrong. There seem to be no correlation between the odds and the liability. It all feels a bit erratic. What are your views on this laying MM?

For example anything below 3.5, your liability is X. Then at 3.6, your liability should further increase as you are betting against the odds, instead it decreases. Would like to understand expert views on why.

Also, while i was doing a bit more research, i am seeing two distinct methods. Either fixing the liability or fixing the return during the staking. What would you recommend and why?

[Schoolman]

Leapyfrog,

You can find a rationale behind the plan on this web page. You might prefer one or more of the other plans discussed. The author doesn't like it either. 

[esoito]

@ LF  You ask:

"Also, while i was doing a bit more research, i am seeing two distinct methods. Either fixing the liability or fixing the return during the staking. What would you recommend and why?"


When laying I always stake to a fixed, specific liability using Formula 2.

Why?

So I have better control over losses, and I'm not betting more than I can afford to lose! 

Stupid I might be; daft I'm not! 

[Leapyfrog]

So I have better control over losses