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[muggins]

Not sure how this will go down and if unacceptable I won't bother.

I am going to share my daily picks for a system that I have been using since late 2011 for selecting longshots in UK horse racing. 

It only has a strike rate of between 11-12%, but based on a $1 level stake it has returned just over $1300 since the beginning of 2012 based on Bookmaker starting prices.  I don't use bookmakers anymore and only use Betfair because the returns have been a lot better. Also bookmakers have a habit of banning me.
So far this year I have had 4 selections pay over $100 based on a $1 outlay, the highest paid $300 when I got on it, but the BFSP ended up being $160.  Most selections are in the $5-20 range, but then there are a lot of losers.  This needs to be remembered with any longshot system.

There are A LOT of lurkers on this forum looking for a free lunch who can get any attachment without being a member. For this reason I am going to password protect the selections and only give the password to members with at least 10 posts and a 1 month membership of the forum.  Looking through the membership list this seems like a good set of conditions. Most people will not be interested anyway.

I will post the results the next day.

Todays selections attached, if you meet the conditions mentioned above PM me for the password.

[Leapyfrog]

Not sure how this will go down and if unacceptable I won't bother.

Muggins - Consider this as a token of appreciation of what you are doing. As a rookie sports bettor, I know how hard it is to determine each and every selection and how much time and effort goes into it. I am glad you decided to share the fruit of your labour with people. +1 for people who will be following your thread until you decide to post.

Cheers
Leapy

[muggins]

Thanks Leapyfrog.  Hopefully you had a bet on the selections.

Results for day one follow.



This was an OK result, but not one that happens every day.

The way I bet with these selections is to start with a bank of $1000 and bet $10 per selection until my bank hits $3000. Obviously, it can take some time to hit this target.  Once the bank gets to $3000, bets are increased to $20.  Bets are continually increased by $10 for each $1000 increase in bank.  When the bank hit $11000, bets are now $100 and that is where I stop increasing until the end of the cycle.  Cycles are calendar year, so 12 months.  On 1st January each year I start again with a bank of $1000.

I use BFSP (Betfair Starting Price) for my bets. Set and forget style. Obviously this will all fail if the people on here who get the tips get greedy. 

This happened on another board in 2009/2010 where I freely supplied tips, so I stopped supplying them. One of the forum members informed me that a member of the forum was using them for their paid tipping service. This is why I am restricting who gets them. If the prices suddenly start plunging all the time I will stop supplying the tips.

Sorry if any of you don't like this, but I really don't have to share these tips at all.

This is just a hobby of mine.

[esoito]

Great idea and very generous of you. 

My eyes popped out on stalks when I saw the winning prices. If that was just an OK session then the 'good' sessions must be outstanding!

You have a rare and valuable talent.

[muggins]

Thank you for the nice comments esoito.

A good session is when a 500/1 tip comes in. 
So far the best BFSP I have had is 403.35 on 15th June 2013, the horse was Hawaiian Freeze, it actually went out to 1000 in running and paid just over $38000 after commission for my $100 bet.  It was a nice surprise when I logged in to check results. 

Punting on the horses has been a hobby of mine since I was about 13 years old I think.  I got the bug from my father, who is now very old.

Today's tips are attached, password is same so no need to PM me if you already have it.

A NOTE OF CAUTION TO ANYONE FOLLOWING OR THINKING ABOUT FOLLOWING, THERE HAVE BEEN TIMES WHERE I HAVE GONE 30+ BETS WITHOUT A WIN USING THESE SELECTIONS. AT $10 A BET THAT IS $300+.

[muggins]

No winners today.



Selections for today attached. Note three of the 4 selections are in the same race, this happens occasionally.

[Leapyfrog]

A NOTE OF CAUTION TO ANYONE FOLLOWING OR THINKING ABOUT FOLLOWING, THERE HAVE BEEN TIMES WHERE I HAVE GONE 30+ BETS WITHOUT A WIN USING THESE SELECTIONS. AT $10 A BET THAT IS $300+.

Very hard to learn.  More hard to practice and even more harder to have the discipline to stick to it.  In a short span I have wasted a lot of money in one mad moment.  The key I have learnt is being patient and have trust in what you are doing. 


Keep up the good work mate.

[esoito]

A salutary warning from Muggins about potential outlays before a winner salutes. 

After all, they're not called 'longshots' for no reason!

[muggins]

No winners again yesterday, a nicely priced one wasn't too far away, unfortunately this happens.....A LOT. 



Todays selections attached.

[muggins]

Another miss.



Todays selections attached.

[esoito]

Muggins, can you see any merit in dropping proposed longshots from your selections that are priced below, say, 8.00?

I ask because your strike rate of 11-12% translates to a price range of 8.30 - 9.00.

I realize that dropping them based on SP is not possible with manual bet'n'forget bets placed in-bulk at the start of the day.

But if you use a bot such as BetbotPRO et alia, you can stipulate your acceptable SP range, of course.

Just a thought for you to ponder...

[muggins]

Yes you could if you wanted to Esoito, when I was doing the Maria style lays I used Grey Horse Bot Lite very effectively, only stoppped because it became a chore after a while and I got to busy at my other job. 

I just like the set and to use forget on Betfair because it takes very little time.  Each to their own I guess.

Almost forgot to post yesterdays results which all lost again ufortunately:



No selections for today.

[muggins]

Todays selections are attached.  Overdue for a win here. 

[Leapyfrog]

Overdue for a win here. 

Good luck Muggins.

I ask because your strike rate of 11-12% translates to a price range of 8.30 - 9.00.

Just a thought on this, and i might be wrong as well as am all new to this. Just seeing the results so far, 2 wins out of 3 has come from a price that is less than 8.00. Also, I believe that strike rate of 11-12% will drop even further if those bets are dropped. Morever, 8.30-9.00 is a weighted average of price range required to be in the winning mark. Considering you have a couple of wins in 5-6 range and couple of wins in 12-15 range, your average might still be in the range of 8.30-9.00.

[muggins]

The problem I find is that when a losing run comes along with any system or formula the urge is always there to tinker with the formula, this more often than not has the effect of breaking it. 

These selections come from a set of parameters which obviously can be tinkered with, but have to date been quite successful for me. 

That is not to say that it can't stop being successful.    The funny or not so funny thing I have found in the past is that when I post selections for the public after being very successful the selections often fail for a period of time and I stop posting or everyone loses interest, as soon as that happens a winning streak comes along.  Go figure.