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[esoito]

Running tomorrow:  Tues 04 November.

It's a huge field so it can tend to be a bit of a lottery, especially given that some of the runners haven't run the distance.

Anyway, a basic but useful form summary is here:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-02/melbourne-cup-2014-field-form-guide-sweep/5844790


A more professional summary, plus a framed market is here:

http://www.racingandsports.com.au/en/form-guide/

[XXVV]

Here is my box 10 :

1.3.4.5.11.12.13.21.22.24

Cost $360 for 0.50c  trifecta.

This can also be done at much less risk exposure, but just as much fun with a percentage bet that will cost less than $100.

Disclaimer : this is my hypothetical bet and anyone choosing to follow such a suggestion should conduct their own due diligence - speculate only with funds you can afford to lose in worst case scenario.

My personal staking contains several covering bets.

AH recommended boxing the internationals - suggest for quinella, trifecta and quaddie.

All bets covered by place bet on the Japanese horse 1 paying approx $2.70.

As a rank outsider I also rate 13 because of the jockey - a future champion.

Good luck.

R.

[greenguy]

Here is my box 10 :

1.3.4.5.11.12.13.21.22.24

Nice group but I think you're throwing some good money away on a few of them.

24 is all the rage at the moment, and rightly so. 11 is a real threat proven at the class & distance. It is also my opinion that you have left out one very good chance.  [smiley]aes/beer.png[/smiley]


Good luck everyone and have a great cup day!

[esoito]

For those wondering "why not just box the field?" the bad news is the outlay!

You'd spend 24 x 23 x 22 = the national debt of a small country.

Yes, you'd certainly get the trifecta.   

The payout -- unless you were extraordinarily lucky -- would far exceed the trifecta outlay.

If XXVV had one standout runner he particularly favoured (called F) he could take out 3 trifectas with F to run a place with his other selections (called S)

Thus:

F
SSSSSSSSS
SSSSSSSSS
--------------- = $72
SSSSSSSSS
F
SSSSSSSSS
--------------  = $72
SSSSSSSSS
SSSSSSSSS
F
-------------- = $72

Total Outlay = $216 for $1   Or     $108 for 50c

A considerable saving!

[XXVV]

Yes indeed thanks Esoito.

What you have suggested is indeed a trifecta plan I used to apply with great success particularly when there was a strong and reliable anchor and the possibility ( as often with MC fields) that an outsider would arrive late and hugely boost the dividend. Also that the anchor in this case, the Japanese import, is paying  good place money as outlined. I used to apply this with maiden fields to great success where one stronger entry stood out among an uneven  and often untried/ unsuccessful field, and particularly in trying conditions.

This way you have the calculated risk that ALL other entries are covered no matter what. Surely it will be in final three? The anchor place bet demonstrates my belief. In recent years with many more exquisite champions in the field, and local breeding unable or unwilling to breed the spread of stayers that once were so famed, the massive trifecta dividends have reduced.

If you are sure it will win or place second you can reduce cost by a third or more, or better,  as outlined reduce cost by percentage betting taking only say a 10% dividend.  Quite exciting. Good luck everyone. I wonder if was #20 that GG was suggesting.

Now what about that first four bet after all ?.....

Take care and good luck.

[esoito]

5         PROTECTIONIST    8.40    3.00    
4         RED CADEAUX                 5.10    
12         WHO SHOT THEBARMAN    3.60    

Trifecta paid 1918.30

[NB:  These are tote prices.]

Drinks all round are on XXVV -- he can afford them now! 

[XXVV]

Well if you are at Joe's Cafe you would receive beer, wine and now champagne as of course the first four were also boxed.

It demonstrates the practical use of a box methodology and earlier research  has shown that box 10 can be useful in certain types of races and can forgive anchor failures.

The 'anchor' method would have taken you down with it as #1 finished a tired last. It should never have been raced after the brilliant performance recently to win the other Cup. After the race, the champion died in the stables - as did another finisher placed 7th after a freak accident where the the horse was spooked ( those Spooks again) by a crowd member waving a flag ( probably an Aussie flag - the one with one too many stars). While kicking out the thoroughbred fractured a delicate bone and had to be destroyed. They are fragile instruments - thoroughbreds. Not a good day for the insurers, but better for the bookies.

While the race was running I was actually playing roulette quite successfully at the time and watching Flemington on a giant screen.

The kiwi horse owned by a syndicate of dairy farmers finished third, and in their modest way had noted the horse was honest under tough questioning by several Aussie Spooks and was likely to finish in the top five. One dairy farmer, a little too much milk maybe, announced this after the race had finished.

Looking forward to next year's race already.

XXVV

[XXVV]

There will be at least two types of speculative ( higher risk)  investment work for me next year.

One will be roulette - which I will write about from January onwards.

The other will be racing - and yes that will be mainly Australian races and I will write a column on that also in this Forum.

There are techniques that are best suited to differing events, tracks and conditions, field sizes and quality of participants.  Because of the larger trifectas available I also play 'provincial' trotting meetings in NZ.

James McDonald the brilliant young (21) NZ jockey mentioned earlier did win one of the Flemington races yesterday. I sometimes play the jockeys just as much as the horses, as the strike rates of an emerging star is a valuable track to follow.