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Pockets' Horses look back

Started by Pockets, November 14, 2013, 11:33:44 AM

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Pockets

13 Nov 2013 - +103.3$

12:50 Allerton win - +49
12:50 Morgan's bay place - -10
13:00 Man amongst men - -3.7
13:10 Minella park - +10
13:10 Neville - -10
13:20 Tullyraine - -31
13:20 Black is beautiful - +30
13:40 Moorland mist - -10
13:50 Mountainous - -10
13:50 Midnight appeal - +46
15:30 Hawker - +45
15:30 Desert skies - -10
15:40 Moleskin - +10
15:40 Moorlands jack - +8
15:50 Foryourinformation +10
16:00 Scarymovie - -10
16:00 Remix - -10
16:10 Rubyglow - -10
16:20 Exkaliber - +10

Agesta1

Very good!!!!
Keep up the good work!
agesta

Pockets

Tips for the day (14 Nov 2013) - +37$
12:20 - Southwell - Easydoesit to place@9.8              -10
12:50 - Southwell - SToney Quine to win @3.35       -10 
12:50 - Southwell - Amadaffair to place @1.96          +9.6
12:55 - Clonmel - Lay Unic de bersy @2.44               +10
12:55 - Clonmel - Back The Job is Right @5.1           +41
13:00 - Ludlow - Lay Aglaophonos @ 2.68                +10
13:00 - Ludlow - Back Ballyglasheen @6                   -10
13:10 - Taunton - Transfer to place @2.1                    -10
13:20 - Southwell - Back Supa U for win @2.92        -10
13:25 - Clonmel - Famousballerina to place @1.66    +6.6
13:30 - Ludlow - Lay freethinking @2.82                   -19
13:40 - Taunton - Enchanting smile to place @19.2   -10
14:10 - Taunton - Western king win @ 6                   -10
14:20 - back silly billy @5.5                                      +45
14:30 - Ludlow - Suerte Al Salto to place @2.7        -10
14:40 - Lay CupFinal @2                                           +10
15:00 - Ludlow - Isola bella to place @2                   -10
15:10 - Back bolinjudith @5                                      -10
15:20 - Lay MonsieurJamie @3.25                            +10
15:20 - Royal bhajan to place @2                              -10
15:25 - Lay Quartetto @5.1                                       +10
15:30 - Lay DreamsandSongs @5.1                          +10
15:30 - Simply a legend to place @1.8                      -10
15:40 - Lay Milosam @2.92                                      -19
16:20 - Back MyGigi @2                                          +10
16:50 - Lay Dancing rain @2.14                               +10
17:20 - Kindinvitation to place @1.65                      +6.5
17:20 Lay Joohaina @3.55                                       +10
17:50 Back Havelovewilltravel@1.97                     -10
18:20 Syrenka to place @2.38                                 +13.8
18:50 Just Rubie to place @5.2                              -10
19:20 - Lay stomp at 2.64                                       +10
19:20 - Djinni to place @2.16                                -10
19:50 - First class to place @2.74                          +17.4
19:50 Lay Emkanat @1.84                                     -8.4

esoito

Some nice returns.  :thumbsup:


I noticed one in particular you backed at 1.9xxx -- and it failed.

That reminded me that there's a school of thought that says backing at under 2.50 is a quick way to bankruptcy.

A bit dramatic but I know what they mean!

[Feel free to delete this post if you don't want it cluttering up your thread  ;) ]

Pockets

15 Nov 2013 - -1$

11:55 Lingfield Captain secret to place at 2.14 - -10
12:25 Lingfield Lay Pool house at 2.12 - +10
12:55 Lingfiled Lay Freedoms light at 2.62 - -16.2
13:05 Cheltanham Victrix Gale to place at 2.38 - -10
13:25 Lingfiled Back Paris rose to place at 2.26 - +12.6
13:35 Cheltanham Eastlake to place at 2.32 - +13.2
13:55 Lingfield Jay bee blue to win at 4.1 - -10
14:05 Cheltanham Lay Oscar Whisky at 1.71 - +10
14:30 Lingfield Glastonberry and Rowe park to place at 2.66 and 4.3 - +6.6
14:40 Cheltanham ATlantic roller to win at 14 - -10
14:40 Cheltanham Top gamble to place at 2.12- -10
15:05 Lingfield Lay leonard thomas at 2.76 - +10
15:15 Cheltanham Lay Balthazar King at 2.84 - -18.4
15:40 Lingfield back Atlanta bay to win at 1.95 - -10
15:50 Cheltanham Daliance to place at 7.8 - -10
17:45 - Lay beautyforte at 3.4 - +10
18:15 - have a nice day to place at 2.54 +15.4
18:45 - Back Magnolia beach @1.85 - +8.5
19:15 - Happy anniversary to win @5.9 - -10
19:45 - Neds indian to place @1.93 - +9.3
20:15 - Hawkswood to place at evens - -10
20:45 - Lay High net worth @2.54 - +10
21:15 - Back Shes no joke at 2.8 - +18
21:15 - Tobair an sheeda to place at 4.1 - -10

Pockets

Quote from: esoito on November 15, 2013, 11:20:07 PM
I noticed one in particular you backed at 1.9xxx -- and it failed.
That reminded me that there's a school of thought that says backing at under 2.50 is a quick way to bankruptcy.
A bit dramatic but I know what they mean!
[Feel free to delete this post if you don't want it cluttering up your thread  ;) ]
Who am i to delete posts :) More discussion, better thought process.

I can't agree more with this school of thought. Anything under an even return to work, we have to win at least 50% of the bets. And am talking only about even returns, imagine with many returning under evens. And with nothing guaranteed in horse racing, achieving 50% or more over a long term is next to impossible.

Taking this a little deeper and putting pure mathematics, in a 5 horse race, when the odds for a horse to win are less than 2, we are placing our money in a position where we are backing 1 outcome to occur against 4 other outcomes possible, which is a 5/1 ratio where as the return is only 2/1 ratio. Long way to cover. On the other hand on laying this horse, we are backing a 5/4 ratio with a return of 2/1 which is obviously better.