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[Pockets]

This is where you will find today's picks from Pockets if anything at all and the overall performance. For the purpose of this thread, I will do a flat betting tip of 10$ as backers bet (winning 10$ in case of lay and the odds in case of backing). Eventhough I practice variable betting based on confidence and at times some short progression, I will not be assessing results based on that for this post just to be fair and make the thread void of any interpretations.

Good luck dears.

[esoito]

Going well 

[Pockets]

[attachimg=1]

[Pockets]

18 Nov 2013 - +55.2$

13:20 - Back Uxisandre at 1.7 - +7
13:35 - Lay Lac Sacre at 3.95 - +10
13:50 - Lay V Neck at 2.32 - +10
14:00 - Back Earthflight at 2.28 - +12.8
14:10 - Lay Nom de guerre at 1.75 - +10
14:20 - Plumpudding to place at 2.44 - -10
14:30 - Lay Heska at 2 - +10
14:40 - Canadian diamond to place at 2.72 - +17.2
14:50 - Goochypoochyprader to place and win at 5.9 and 2.16 - -20
15:00 - Lay winterwell at 1.82 - +8.2

[Pockets]

15:20 Lay Cruclasse at 6.2 - +10
15:30 Lay Eisthyaaq at 5.7 - +10
15:30 Aiyana and Aplin mysteriess to place at 3.35 and 2.06 - +23.5, -10
15:40 Dubai prince to win at 1.84 - +8.4

[Pockets]

17:00 - Lay Yul Finegold at 3.85
17:00 - Knockgraffon Lad to place at 3.85

[Pockets]

[attachimg=1]

Apart from what I have tipped, as I am in well into the positive territory, going to look for a few races which are hard to predict and bet like the attachment. It is essentially backing almost all horses in the race, expecting an outcome which will surprise everyone. THIS IS NOT A TIP, don't PRACTICE IF YOU ARE NOT SURE ABOUT WHAT AM DOING HERE.

This is a bit different from laying a horse. Different in two counts. One, the outlay is going to be huge and a huge risk. I don't do this, until i had a great day and try to top that day. Two, laying produces a constant outcome, whereas this produces a variable outcome based on the odds. Worser the odds, better the outcome.

[Pockets]

So here goes the summary of another lucky day.

18 Nov 2013 - +125.6$

13:20 - Back Uxisandre at 1.7 - +7
13:35 - Lay Lac Sacre at 3.95 - +10
13:50 - Lay V Neck at 2.32 - +10
14:00 - Back Earthflight at 2.28 - +12.8
14:10 - Lay Nom de guerre at 1.75 - +10
14:20 - Plumpudding to place at 2.44 - -10
14:30 - Lay Heska at 2 - +10
14:40 - Canadian diamond to place at 2.72 - +17.2
14:50 - Goochypoochyprader to place and win at 5.9 and 2.16 - -20
15:00 - Lay winterwell at 1.82 - +8.2 15:20 Lay Cruclasse at 6.2 - +10
15:30 Lay Eisthyaaq at 5.7 - +10
15:30 Aiyana and Aplin mysteriess to place at 3.35 and 2.06 - +23.5, -10
15:40 Dubai prince to win at 1.84 - +8.4 17:00 - Lay Yul Finegold at 3.85 - +10
17:00 - Knockgraffon Lad to place at 3.85 - +28.5


And for those wondering what happened to that punt on almost all the horses in the race, it reaped a profit of 32.5£ with Knockgraffon Lad finishing first with a late burst with Venutis leading the first half of the race and Singzak the second. For a moment i thought i will settle in for 1£ with Singzak winning, if not for that late burst.

[Pockets]

Not a good day

19 Nov2013 - +23.3$

12:10 Like Clockwork to place at 2.96 - -10
12:40 Uncle Dermott to place at 2.7 - -10
12:40 Lay Chrissycross in place market at 3.05 - -20
13:10 Big storm coming to place at 1.83 - +8.3
13:40 Lay Maywhi at 2.52 - +10
14:10 Lay Stoutcortez at 1.83 - +10
14:40 Clear focus to place and win at 2.52 and 7 - -20
15:10 Lay Amenable at 4.8 - +10
15:40 Back leesanthem to place at  5.5 - +45

[esoito]

Ouch...

But in the long-term (which is what really matters, of course) you're probably ahead. Yes? No?

[Pockets]

Yes Esoito. Am.  But my bet sizes vary in real world to accommodate my confidence leavers and dome short progressions. But this thread is about being flat.  So far after 4-5 days, it's still on the up.  Only time will tell.

[esoito]

Goodo.

Re: that Knockgraffon race
What was it about the favourite that you decided to bet against it? (A correct decision, of course!  )

Was it to do with the overall price-profile of the race?

Or specific negative factors in the favourite's form?

Or....?

[Pockets]

Am glad you asked that question Max. It helps bumping the ideas to get a different perspective. See below the race card for that race.

[attachimg=1]

Now the market favourite that day was Yul finegold at 3.21. If I go a little further on Yul's victories, i figured that he has primarily raced in turf, but Wolverhampton is an entirely different story with polytrack. Also, most of Yuls victories came when the going was good and the going was standard on this day. So I thought this is a market leader to lay.

Now again taking the above factor and recent form into consideration, two horse stood out for me. Knockgraffon lad and Magica. Both were dropping classses as well. However, the racing was in Wolverhampton and the distance was 1m 4f.  Over this distance there was definitely a draw bias towards the inside. So I ranked Knockgraffon lad first followed by Magica. Race day comes and Magika was a non-runner. Decision made easier.

Now came the question of betting. Eventhough Yul was leading at 3.21 it was a bit far fetched to lay him and backing Knockgraffon at 18 or in the place at 3.9 sounded more attractive. So i decided to bet on place for Knock at 3.9.

Now I was on the profits that day. Profits, well in the positive territory. Saw the gap from the leader to the next one. The second leader was Singzak and he was trading at 8.x. So the maximum i could bet was on 8 horses on a course of 10 horses. I needed to find one more which i am confident of laying, but within the market leaders. The reason is, the more non-favourites i have the better the profit. Question was who. Again went back to the form card. I had to chose between Mick Duggan, Singzak, Sir boss and rebel force. Let Rebel force out by pure form. Now I had 8 racing horses that i could bet on with the lowest odd being 8.2.

From here it was down to luck. Yul finegold got caught on the inner side. Venutius led for first half and Singzak (justified the second favourite) went into the lead in the second half. If not for the late burst from Knock, singzak would have won. Glad it worked my way.

Hope it answered your question Esoito.

[esoito]

Wow...what an excellent analysis!!!

It does indeed answer my question.

Thank you so much for all the details.

It's a revelation to see that dissection of all the salient factors that shaped your decision.

So for newcomers to race-betting the conditions, dropping in class and price-gaps in the market are certainly some of the major factors to take into account.

Absolutely fascinating to see the way you put it all together... 

[Pockets]

25th Nov 2013
17:30 Wolv - Montjess to place at 2.12