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Messages - alrelax

#1
ABSOLUTELY BRILLIANT.  PAST GENIUS LEVEL!

"........was silently working on handling things that can not be done ordinarily. I found that flat betting is not a remedy and progression is a double edged sword, it might help in certain cases but has its own weaknesses that would kill us faster than a flat better in wrong moments and despite everything, wrong moments can not be avoided fully. That is the harsh reality of randomness."

In a nutshell what the highest majority of all bac players do not grasp. 

Happens all the time, every darn shoe! 
#2
General Discussion / Re: Gambling Quotes
Yesterday at 03:02:30 AM
"The safest way to double your money is to fold it over once and put it in your pocket."

—Unknown
#3
General Discussion / Re: Gambling Quotes
December 03, 2025, 12:25:09 AM
"It is often our thinking that hurts us. There is no reason to imprison yourself at the table! Do not think outside the box, ever. Think like there is no box at all".  —Alrelax

#4
Alrelax's Blog / So Wrong So Right
December 01, 2025, 12:57:49 AM
Yes anything and everything happens at the baccarat table! From the cards presenting unbelievable patterns, to the dealers off-the-wall attitudes and responses, to the floor personnel's supervisor lackadaisical actions or super strict compliance, to the people playing of all races and bank-rolls, to those watching the game with their out loud inquisitive comments, juggled with all kinds of emotions and responses.

Music. Some music fits in excellent for the bac table. Such as Stealers Wheel, 'Stuck in the middle with you', you know the song, that famous line so friggen perfect for the bac table  "Clowns to the left of me jokers to the right". And Pink Floyd's 'Money', you know that song too, "money it's a gas, grab that cash with both hands and make a stash". And the Dave Matthews Band, 'Burning down the house', you know that song also, "watch out you might get what your after, I'm an ordinary guy burning down the house ".  Oh yeah, let's not forget about KC and the Sunshine Band, 'That's the way I like it', so well-known, "That's the way uh-huh, uh-huh I like it, uh-huh, uh-huh I like it", the perfect repetitive lyrics for those wins after wins after wins, stacking up the chips! 

Dealers.  Although the shoe is either the real friend or the enemy of each person's session, there has to be a dealer to pull the cards and either swipe your chips away or pay you what you won. Dealers are usually the heartbeat of the game, some run a tight ship counting down the seconds until they smack the felt several times with the palm of their hand, signifying no more bets and yet others allow the players to run the schedule and how the game is actually played out. As well, certain dealers are all smiles and googly eyes, while others are as tight as a military drill sergeant on a Monday morning during basic training. When you become friends with a dealer as a regular player, you see a lot of the coldness suddenly goes away and then it becomes a much different game for many of us.

Floor Personnel.  From Floor Person to Pit Supervisor, to Floor Supervisor, to Table Games Managers, they all exist to keep law and order in the land of the unknown, the casino. While all the Floor Personnel of varying titles have basically the same goal, which is to run the games and take care of player's records and requests. The difference in personnel is there attire and their attitudes. From the, "do I really have to wear a tie and real shoes", to "I take extreme pride in my Sharp Dressed Man look". They stand there with their arms crossed, eyes locked on games, watching larger wagers and settling disputes while keeping the peace, they also stand there propped up against the podiums or a table waiting impatiently for their break time while either snickering at a dispute or laughing at the players fighting amongst themselves.

Players.  Some occupy seats with eye piercing thought, waiting for their prime trigger to wager a minimum table wager. Others wager thousands of dollars per hand with the precision of engaging in their grandma's secret cooking recipes. And of course, there is usually one or two standing behind all the seated players. They are usually passing their chips between their two hands making as much noise as possible by the clacking of their chips, up and down or back and forth. Those standing will usually wager quite infrequently, after several comments about why something should/has to happen and of course they place their wager right after pointing to that 'certain' something on the scoreboard. If their wager won, they usually once again point to whatever it was on the scoreboard that was an absolute certainty for an easy win. And if they lost the wager, they usually just go back to studying the scoreboard and not saying anything. Usually this happens more often than not.  Let's not forget about the newer player attempting to get a comp, that really doesn't have enough time or rating in to get some kind of small comp for a $20 or a $30 meal.  He is continually told that he needs additional play time.  Meanwhile he is risking well past the meal cost many times over. Never understood that but just to speed up the game I have witnessed a few times especially when a table was extremely hot, seeing a green chip or two tossed by other players to the person requesting the comp in order to get him to exit the game.

Watching The Game.  And finally those just watching the game.  Their out loud inquisitive comments such as how did two face cards lose to only a 5 and a 4?  Or how come the players do not draw additional cards? And at Midi/Macau games, why are the players totally vandalizing the cards?
#5
Wagering & Intricacies / Re: L.I.S.T. & MMM
November 30, 2025, 03:52:58 AM
Bump up after 5 years. 
#6
Civil & Criminal Topics / Caesars Executives Apologize
November 22, 2025, 01:46:44 AM
Caesars executives apologize for doing business with illegal bookmaker.  By, Buck Wargo, CDC Gaming.

Saying they didn't do enough to stop doing business with an illegal bookmaker, Caesars Entertainment executives apologized profusely and accepted responsibility for their failure before the Nevada Gaming Commission Thursday.


https://cdcgaming.com/caesars-executives-apologize-for-doing-business-with-illegal-bookmaker/
#7
Vegas and Atlantic City / Re: A Definitive Vegas Update
November 19, 2025, 12:06:17 PM
Simply great overview!

Las Vegas spent over $4.3 billion building Resorts World — the first megaresort on the Strip in more than a decade. It was supposed to be the future of Vegas luxury, technology, and entertainment. Instead... it's already struggling. Massive revenue drops, expensive fines, empty retail areas, tech failures, guest complaints, and a location that continues to hold back the entire north Strip have turned this "dream project" into one of Vegas' biggest modern disappointments.


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3wWV95g5V8M&pp=ugUHEgVlbi1HQg%3D%3D
#8
Here is another one:

Fourteen people were charged for their roles in a multimillion-dollar illegal sports betting ring that involved college athletes and had links to organized crime, New Jersey authorities announced Thursday.

According to the authorities, Joseph "Little Joe" Perna, a member of the Lucchese crime family, and his associates ran a nationwide network of bookmakers who used offshore websites to facilitate approximately $2 million in bets between 2022 and 2024.

https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/46957471/14-arrested-mafia-backed-betting-ring-involving-athletes
#9
November 13, 2025

WASHINGTON — Today, the Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) and the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) joined the Government of Mexico in targeting the Hysa Organized Crime Group and numerous Mexico-based gambling establishments involved in cartel-related money laundering and a slew of other criminal activities across Mexico and Europe. This coordinated action is the result of recent U.S.-Mexico commitments—secured during Treasury Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence John K. Hurley's trip—to work together more closely to combat narcotrafficking and related financial crime by Mexico-based drug cartels and other groups.


https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0315


And here us another detailed explanation:

https://www.kget.com/border-report-tour/mexico-shuts-down-13-casinos-for-alleged-money-laundering/
#10
Great detailed explanations with pictures!

If this topic interests you, you must read this!

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2025/11/01/NBA-mafia-betting-poker-charges-investigation/86860683007/#
#11
Great info take!  Funny as hell, but sad!

Gaming industry could face repercussions from NBA-Mafia gambling case.

This statement takes that proverbial cake!!!

"When I saw the Bonnano family, the Gambino family, the Genovese family, the Luchesi family ... these people were in power in criminal organizations since I was a small boy. My question is, where has the federal government been for the last 50 years?"


https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/casinos-gaming/gaming-industry-could-face-repercussions-from-NBA-mafia-gambling-case-3530797/
#12
Vegas and Atlantic City / Re: A Definitive Vegas Update
October 30, 2025, 11:18:09 AM
Great comments, Great reporting, Great points.

I have to agree, the Parking fees and Resort fees were the gateway to the corporate greed and pathways to; Put something in our mini fridge and you are charged, and the $24.00 bottle of water. 

"The strip isn't empty cause people forgot about it, it's empty because the house changed the rules and the players walked away.  Vegas thought no one would notice, but everyone has!"

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=bd0AG9doLjY&pp=ugUEEgJlbg%3D%3D
#13
Sports and gambling odds rigged.  Plain and simple.

The card-swindling technology NYC mafiosos allegedly used to cheat victims out of millions in a years-long poker scheme is readily available for sale online.

A simple Google search for "X-Ray poker table" quickly pulled up numerous companies producing devices that apparently employ the exact technology mobsters used in their sprawling con, which prosecutors unveiled in a federal indictment Thursday.

That included businesses selling tables indistinguishable from regular poker stations, but secretly rigged with LEDs that can see through the felt and read the suit and value of any generic playing card on the sneaky surface.

Associates of four of New York's infamous "five families" crime syndicates allegedly backed a multimillion-dollar poker con that used elaborate technology to cheat unsuspecting players — and brought rare, unappreciated light to the mob's shadowy operations, officials said.

Associates of the Bonanno, Gambino, Genovese and Lucchese crime families were named in a sweeping indictment that also ensnared Portland Trail Blazers coach Chauncey Billups, and one-time NBA journeyman Damon Jones, according to prosecutors from the Eastern District of New York.

Federal authorities didn't hesitate Thursday to pin the poker scam on La Cosa Nostra, showing that organized crime is still a modern law enforcement concern even after FBI operations in the 1980s and 1990s seemed to decimate the five families.

"The mafia ... it's still a thing," said Geoff Schumacher, vice president of exhibits and programs for the Mob Museum in Las Vegas.

The mob works best when the public knows less about the people involved, according to Schumacher, who called famed bosses like the late Dapper Don, John Gotti, an "aberration."

"They didn't want the general public to be well-versed in their business. The one guy who kind of defied that whole thing was John Gotti because he just believed that he was untouchable," Schumacher said.

A dozen mafia associates played a role in the poker scam, prosecutors said.

Ernest Aiello and Julius "Jay" Ziliani were linked to the Bonanno crime family.

Louis "Lou Ap" Apicella, Ammar "Flapper Poker" Awawdeh, John Gallo, Joseph Lanni, Nicholas Minucci, Angelo Ruggiero Jr. were associates of the Gambino crime family.

Matthew "The Wrestler" Daddino and Lee Fama were identified as associates of the Genovese crime family.

Seth Trustman was linked to the Lucchese crime family.

And Thomas "Juice" Gelardo was called an associate of the Bonanno crime family and later an associate of the Genovese crime family, according to the indictment.

Gambling "is an easy pinch" and bread-and-butter income source for the mob, the author and former Gambino mobster Louis Ferrante told NBC News.

"I wasn't at all surprised," Ferrante said. "Gambling has been a mafia mainstay for the last 100 years. With all the RICO indictments that put so many people away for the rest of their lives (in the 1980s and 90s), the mob has sort of scaled back and they stuck with loan sharking and gambling because if you get busted, as long as there's no violence involved, nobody's beat up or threatened, it's a slap on the wrist."

He added: "These guys could do a nickel maybe in the can, as opposed to doing 30, 40 years or life sentences."

Organized crime soldiers and associates are busted all the time but rarely make news, said Seth Zuckerman, New York criminal defense lawyer and former Brooklyn prosecutor.

"It's not what it used to be, but it definitely still exists," Zuckerman said. "In underground poker games and things like that, where you need protection, you need a source of cash, the mob still has its involvement."

With legal online gambling, users are required to put up all of the money before they place a bet but the crime families operate outside of the rules by acting as an intermediary, offering people the ability to place bets on credit.

"There's still a need for that," Zuckerman said. "There are people who want to bet on credit, which as you know with legalized operations, you really can't do. So that's part of the mob's territory."

Federal action against Billups and Jones spill into two separate indictments covering poker and insider sports betting information.

The alleged mafia members are only tied to the alleged poker scheme. But the mob does have a long history of involvement in sports betting and poker.

The most famous sports betting scandal in American history, when the 1919 Chicago White Sox threw the World Series, was allegedly engineered by gambler Arnold Rothstein, a mentor to early Genovese boss Charlie "Lucky" Luciano.

The Colombo crime family had alleged connections to NBA officials in the 1990s and early 2000s.

Even though sports betting is largely legal in most states, that still didn't stop several Gambino soldiers from taking illegal bets in New York, state prosecutors said last year in a 17-person indictment.

The Lucchese crime family had alleged ties to a racketeering, gambling and money laundering operation out of New Jersey poker rooms that was taken down early this year, officials said.
The New York City area's "five families" include the four mentioned in the indictment plus the Colombo crime family.

FBI Director Kash Patel said federal law enforcement had "entered and executed a system of justice against La Cosa Nostra to include the Bonanno, Gambino, Genovese and Lucchese crime families."

Old-fashioned mob muscle ensured victims paid up from their losses in rigged games, officials said.

"With respect to poker games held in the New York City area, members of the Bonanno, Gambino and Genovese Crime Families, used threats and intimidation to assure payments of debts" in games organized by defendants Awawdeh, Trustman, Zhen Hu and Robert Stroud, the indictment said.

All crime families involved "received proceeds" from the crooked games, the indictment said.

The mafia's alleged use of cutting-edge technology that included hidden cameras and X-rays shouldn't surprise anyone, Ferrante said, because a mob boss can reach out to experts as easily as anyone else.

"The mob moves with the technology," Ferrante said. "Don't think that some capo, 'Frankie nine fingers,' or 'Joe the butcher' is making these moves. They're getting some geek who knows technology and he's doing it for them."

And poker is no different from fuel, concrete and construction when it comes to wise guy involvement, according to Ferrante, the author of "Borgata: Clash of Titans: a History of the American Mafia."

"The mob only has multiple families involved when it becomes something like gasoline, when they're doing multimillions of dollars," Ferrante said. "Concrete, when they were pouring all the concrete in New York; the windows, when they were putting in all the new energy efficient windows in the 90s; that's (when) all the families get involved because it's so big and there's so much money involved that you can't, one family can't keep it to themselves. "

He added: "So when you see four (of the five crime) families involved, you know that this is a huge racket."

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uNPqbO_z3ss
#14
As KungFu commented and most others would agree, I frequently see those 4/5s on Bankers first two cards causing the greatest disagreements/confusion above all else.

I note almost every session with players having lengthy play experience, they call for pulls, although not an argument they are saying, "you have to pull-why are you not pulling". 

It is really simple, Bankers with a 4 pulls if the Players 3rd card is a 2-7 and Bankers with a 5 pulls if the Players 3rd card is a 4-7. 

What I also notice is the Players 3rd card of 8.  If the Bankers have a two card 3-4-5, then many of the same people generally are thinking the Bankers must pull. 

#15
Most mistakes/mistaken

1) Play too long

If one thinks to play with an edge it doesn't matter how short or long are the sessions played, providing that the mental focus isn't declining for fatigue or bankroll status issues.

Absolutely, to clarify my statement was NOT made to only endorse a short/session play. It took into consideration; fatigue, emotions, losses/wins, as well as the bankroll and buy-in status, etc.  Also something that I determine in the beginning of most any session is winning, losing, or hovering around even. Whatever happens quickly will make a determination in my mind which way I should go with the length of the session. As weird as it sounds, that took me a long time to even figure out.

2) Chasing losses

Yep.
Card distributions are totally insensitive of our bankroll status and statistically speaking it's slight more probable to collect more losses after losing than to recoup everything or something already lost.

In addition, if lost, (IF) and make that a huge if, you recoup be careful at the point right there. So so many times I have done just that, recouped and then aggressively went after a win. Nope, gave it all back countless times and never to recoup a second time. Remember that please.

3) Chasing a singular win

Sooner or later we'll have to stop a losing sequence, that doesn't mean to chase losing streaks that can last 10-12 or more hands in a row.
3/4 of the times, winning is a clustered W affair, so there's no reason to bet when a L streak keep showing up or (more importantly) when wins come out as isolated. 

True about the clustered win affairs. Reference Thad not betting after an L or L streak. Fine line, however if no bet-no wins. Does that put you into a more 'alert' and/or attentive status and the such? It does me at times, but no one relishes to be in the L status and streak.

4) When it's there, you fail to wager and/or pump it up.

Here the problem is knowing "when is there" but the main factor why casinos keep collecting more money than expected by the HE is because players will be particularly aggressive when losing but cautious (or overly aggressive) while winning.

IMO and experience, must pump it up while winning. Flat goes back to cover losses, so those wins are only a short time, (within a section) protection and fuel. My real wins are the ones that are substantial ones and they come from positive progressions and parlaying my win money on top of the base unit when I get on win streaks.

A person needs to strengthen and support their buy-in with wins. Wins that are quickly accumulated will be much easier by far with positive progressions and parlaying than those accumulated by flat betting. Because of those wins accumulated by flat betting also have to cover the losses occurred currently, while attempting to cover those previously. Hence. The grind!




5) When it's not (NOT) there, you fail to stop

Excellent point.
Whenever it seems we're not guessing right a single hand, stay put and don't bet a dime.
Wait several hands before betting again or, even better, wait for the next shoe to be dealt.
The concept that every shoe dealt is beatable is a total complete bighornsh.i.t.

6) Constantly increasing Bankroll and Buy-in amounts

Another good point.
It takes a robust and verified long term W/L ratio before thinking to raise our standard bets as the house is constantly getting the favorite math side.

7) Failure to have a rock solid M.M.M.

In our opinion and after having verified a kind of an edge (and natural deviations), the best move to take is flat betting the maximum limit at the table. Or what we consider "max" in relationship of our bankroll.

Flat betting in my opinion should not be max table limit. But I guess one needs to examine how long his play will be and if he can as well, as how many possible wins/losses he can stand doing such with his current buy-in.

#8) Failure to Reset and/or abide by your Tier/Plateau

Here we disagree.
We do not want to insert subjective factors into the game, unless affecting our future strategy (but since we've ascertained an edge we know that any kind of subjective adjustment will be worthless)

More explanations and detailing out I wish to do. We all have them and most don't even know what tier and plateaus are within their play. What we are comfortable with, what our buy-in supports. What and how easy the wins were and how much we won. Example, buy-in $2,500, drawdown $750, won $3,000. Sitting with $4,750 on the rail. If you are comfortable and desire the $1,750 call it a session, done and finished. Cash out.

However, I would play if I wasn't struggling. I would go back to my plateau with the $2500 buy-in. Make it whole again.  $1,750 now locked up in my pocket. I would revert back to a smaller base unit wager than what I won the $1,750 with (taking into consideration whatever amount that was, was my base betting unit). If I won two straight wagers, I would parlay one, and then just go with the third one on, pulling down the winning amounts. So say I had previously been wagering $300-$500 range, that I accumulated the $1,750 win with and the buy-in drawdown I recovered, I remain totally conscious of that base unit and the comfortableness and security it afforded/affords my wagering.

I don't subscribe to nor do I flat bet with real consistency.  I want the wins to compile quick and fast, I want the losses to be as small as possible. 

Continuing the example from above.  Back down to a 'base' wager (hence not a flat betting amount), say $200 and win, next wager $400 and win, sitting with a final bet of $800.  My next wager would either be $500 or the whole $800. If I won, it goes along with another $500 out of my $2,500 original buy-in sitting there and $2,000 of that goes into my pocket, for a total of $3,750 locked up. If I lost, my rail money would be $2,000 or $2,300 if the bet was $500 and I would attempt another win streak with that amount at my disposal. If I could not win additional with that rail money, so be it. If I did, once again sort out additional amounts won to lock up with the $3,750 while increasing my amount on the rail.

When I am winning multiple hands, I go well above my plateau. However when I am not winning, I revert/stay or perhaps go under my plateau level.  IMO and My Experience............Win MORE, Lose LESS. 

Reason Being.  IMO and Experience, you can win, lose or draw even for a session. REALITY.  WINNING. We all desire to win. Generally, winning requires a drawdown of your buy-in. Generally, winning will be accompanied by losing hands as well. Losing happens and none of us desire that. Of course gamblers with greater experience expect just that and accept it with anticipation and even strategic use. Others, losing just several hands can and will cause devastation to their buy-in amount(s).  BREAKING EVEN. Always talked about, seldom an outcome for those that came to gamble in a casino. Breaking even is usually a temporary status between winning and complete buy-in loss. I'm talking hard-core and real-life facts here. 

For myself, IMO and I stress my experience, your tier/plateau should be considered as an advantage for your play as well as incorporated into your rocksolid MMM.

Tier/Plateaus can be your second nature guide for some kind of wagering position guide, when you are not on a wild win streak.

Tier/Plateaus can be your second nature 'go to' betting amount when you have no feeling or you entered the inevitable losing hand realm.