I'm sorry Turner, but that's unacceptable. Please go back and return the money that you have unfairly won, as you will likely not be able to sleep at night. 
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#122
Methods' results / Re: XXVV's WF3 system
March 05, 2014, 06:14:05 PM
Regarding the XXVV W3 and W4.
Of course it has failed, and will continue to fail. As a professional AP player, I will simply tell you like it really is. Intuition, feelings, biorhythms, and meditation doesn't help you win. Physics does. Cause and effect.
After reading the XXVV thread, I decided that it was time to post some real things that you should look for if you're going to attempt to play on the hot numbers. And for the record, what you're attempting to do is not really play just hot numbers, you're hoping that there's some kind of bias/dealer effect that will enable you to win in the near term.
1. Wheel spin direction. Using a very simple program, you can sort by spin direction. You can also use the sort function in Excel. Even though you don't know the spin direction of the online sample, you can still combine every other spin, so that you have one column of numbers for each direction. When betting, you should have individual numbers (or possibly mini sections) on which to bet for each unique spin direction.
2. Dealer breaks. Different dealers spin at different wheels speeds, and have different roulette ball preferences. Since you don't know where they start and stop within the Wiesbaden samples, you're going to be at a disadvantage right from the start. When you can, note your dealers. It's best to have two dealers with similar rotor speeds and ball preferences.
3. Track more spins. Tracking only 21 spins and then playing isn't going to cut it. Especially if the wheel is alternating spin direction. That's only 12 spins for each direction! The simple fact is, the more spins you can write, the more you will learn about the true payoff tendencies of each number on the wheel. At least track one half of a shift. It's far too few spins, but it's still much better than tracking for only 21 spins. By cutting the shift in half, you'll be playing against the same dealers on the second half of the shift. Shifts are broken down into day, swing, and grave. You need to know when each shift begins at your casino. (You should actually track several thousand spins, but most people can't imagine completing such a task).
4. Play only statistically relevant numbers. Most people on this board have no idea as to how to calculate standard devition and it's not practical at the table, so I'll keep it simple. Don't play hot numbers unless they have at least two or three more hits than the next hottest numbers. The larger the spin sample, the bigger that lead gap should be. Ideally, you'll take into account the location of the weakest numbers or section in relation to the location of the hottest numbers. You want the weak numbers to be very weak, and the best numbers to be very strong. Subtract the number of hits for the weakest number(s) or section from the hottest number(s) or section. Here's the quick "at the table" formula:
(Hot Numbers) - (Weak Numbers) = (Crude Wheel Fitness Test Value)
The higher this value is, the better. If the value is too low, don't play.
5. End the play when the playing conditions change. Playing conditions refer to the wheel speed, ball used, etc. In the real world of gambling you will have draw downs. Random losing periods with an edge of only 3 to 5% can exceed 1000 units. Quitting when the playing conditions change can help dampen the draw downs. But still expect some big ones, since variance is a double edged sword. If this is too much for you, then you'll need to find a way to get a bigger edge, or you'll need to start with a bigger bankroll. If you're the short term tracker, then assume that your edge is very small or likely nonexistent.
6. Money management. It's really quite simple. Just bet anywhere from .5 to 1.5% of your bankroll at each spin. This way your bets increase as you win, and it gives you a real shot at winning some real money, since your initial bets can be much higher than when using an "up as you lose" progression. Set a win goal. Nobody is ever happy with just a one unit win. Grow a pair! Go for it, until you reach your win goal or until the playing conditions change too much. When the playing conditions change, quit. When the playing conditions are stable, bet more. When the playing conditions are less stable, bet less or quit. When you bet using this kind of money management, "gaming discipline" and "feelings" are no longer an issue. They're simply something that other gambler's use as an excuse for not winning. A loss is a loss. A win is a win. When either happen, it's the result of randomness, variance, and procedure, not discipline.
Now a fun test question. The player has a 6% edge, and plans on playing off and on over a period of several days for a total of 10k spins. The player's starting bankroll is $1,000. Which player will likely win the most money, and receive the most attention in the form of sex and love from his/her spouse or friend. Player 1,2, or 3?
1. The player flat bets $50 every spin on the top numbers.
2. The player bets 1% of his bankroll distributed over his best numbers. His initial bet is only $10 in total.
3. The player runs an up as you lose progression using a Fibonacci sequence.
If a player would have properly tracked the Macau wheel that has often been referenced within this thread, then the player could have won substantially more money and could have had a much higher edge than the paltry 3 to 5% shown.
Learn to rely on observations, physics, and common sense, not just feelings and intuition.
I realize that this post may upset some forum members. So in order to help prevent this post from upsetting too many people, and to help soften the blow, I've added a unicorn below.
/.\
-Xander
Of course it has failed, and will continue to fail. As a professional AP player, I will simply tell you like it really is. Intuition, feelings, biorhythms, and meditation doesn't help you win. Physics does. Cause and effect.
After reading the XXVV thread, I decided that it was time to post some real things that you should look for if you're going to attempt to play on the hot numbers. And for the record, what you're attempting to do is not really play just hot numbers, you're hoping that there's some kind of bias/dealer effect that will enable you to win in the near term.
1. Wheel spin direction. Using a very simple program, you can sort by spin direction. You can also use the sort function in Excel. Even though you don't know the spin direction of the online sample, you can still combine every other spin, so that you have one column of numbers for each direction. When betting, you should have individual numbers (or possibly mini sections) on which to bet for each unique spin direction.
2. Dealer breaks. Different dealers spin at different wheels speeds, and have different roulette ball preferences. Since you don't know where they start and stop within the Wiesbaden samples, you're going to be at a disadvantage right from the start. When you can, note your dealers. It's best to have two dealers with similar rotor speeds and ball preferences.
3. Track more spins. Tracking only 21 spins and then playing isn't going to cut it. Especially if the wheel is alternating spin direction. That's only 12 spins for each direction! The simple fact is, the more spins you can write, the more you will learn about the true payoff tendencies of each number on the wheel. At least track one half of a shift. It's far too few spins, but it's still much better than tracking for only 21 spins. By cutting the shift in half, you'll be playing against the same dealers on the second half of the shift. Shifts are broken down into day, swing, and grave. You need to know when each shift begins at your casino. (You should actually track several thousand spins, but most people can't imagine completing such a task).
4. Play only statistically relevant numbers. Most people on this board have no idea as to how to calculate standard devition and it's not practical at the table, so I'll keep it simple. Don't play hot numbers unless they have at least two or three more hits than the next hottest numbers. The larger the spin sample, the bigger that lead gap should be. Ideally, you'll take into account the location of the weakest numbers or section in relation to the location of the hottest numbers. You want the weak numbers to be very weak, and the best numbers to be very strong. Subtract the number of hits for the weakest number(s) or section from the hottest number(s) or section. Here's the quick "at the table" formula:
(Hot Numbers) - (Weak Numbers) = (Crude Wheel Fitness Test Value)
The higher this value is, the better. If the value is too low, don't play.
5. End the play when the playing conditions change. Playing conditions refer to the wheel speed, ball used, etc. In the real world of gambling you will have draw downs. Random losing periods with an edge of only 3 to 5% can exceed 1000 units. Quitting when the playing conditions change can help dampen the draw downs. But still expect some big ones, since variance is a double edged sword. If this is too much for you, then you'll need to find a way to get a bigger edge, or you'll need to start with a bigger bankroll. If you're the short term tracker, then assume that your edge is very small or likely nonexistent.
6. Money management. It's really quite simple. Just bet anywhere from .5 to 1.5% of your bankroll at each spin. This way your bets increase as you win, and it gives you a real shot at winning some real money, since your initial bets can be much higher than when using an "up as you lose" progression. Set a win goal. Nobody is ever happy with just a one unit win. Grow a pair! Go for it, until you reach your win goal or until the playing conditions change too much. When the playing conditions change, quit. When the playing conditions are stable, bet more. When the playing conditions are less stable, bet less or quit. When you bet using this kind of money management, "gaming discipline" and "feelings" are no longer an issue. They're simply something that other gambler's use as an excuse for not winning. A loss is a loss. A win is a win. When either happen, it's the result of randomness, variance, and procedure, not discipline.
Now a fun test question. The player has a 6% edge, and plans on playing off and on over a period of several days for a total of 10k spins. The player's starting bankroll is $1,000. Which player will likely win the most money, and receive the most attention in the form of sex and love from his/her spouse or friend. Player 1,2, or 3?
1. The player flat bets $50 every spin on the top numbers.
2. The player bets 1% of his bankroll distributed over his best numbers. His initial bet is only $10 in total.
3. The player runs an up as you lose progression using a Fibonacci sequence.
If a player would have properly tracked the Macau wheel that has often been referenced within this thread, then the player could have won substantially more money and could have had a much higher edge than the paltry 3 to 5% shown.
Learn to rely on observations, physics, and common sense, not just feelings and intuition.
I realize that this post may upset some forum members. So in order to help prevent this post from upsetting too many people, and to help soften the blow, I've added a unicorn below.
/.\
-Xander
#123
General Discussion / Re: Over the years I've constantly read two things...........
March 03, 2014, 05:07:44 AMQuotePeople seldom discuss the casinos biggest advantage is their wealth vs what's in your pocket...their staying power is a formidable obstacle-RouletteKEY
The amount of money that the casino has doesn't affect whether you win or lose.
In the long run, the biggest obstacle is and always will be the house edge.
#124
Baccarat Forum / Re: Maybe something of interest here
February 27, 2014, 11:22:37 AM
Small sample, curve fitting, etc. No meaning, just a dead end.
#125
Baccarat Forum / Re: Maybe something of interest here
February 27, 2014, 09:56:37 AM
Guys,
By now, I would hope that you would have moved beyond chasing imaginary patterns. Some of you have been on these boards for years.
There's a real way to get an edge at baccarat. It's documented and it's won millions.
Risk consultants around the world will tell you it's the biggest AP threat out there.
It's called "sort play". I've described it in some detail in another post.
Rather than building on the same foundation of ignorance, over and over and over and over and over and over and over...Take the time to research and build on the knowledge that more experienced people have posted. Read what the experts and gaming consultants are saying. Listen to those of us that can actually do the math and are experts on the game. Believe it or not, we're not here to mislead you as part of some vast conspiracy.
Watching people rediscover the pattern tracking is like watching them reinvent the Martinagle day after day. It's been tried to death, and it doesn't work!!!
If you don't believe me, then trust what other gaming experts have to say. People like the Wizard of Odds, Dr. Elliot Jacobson, and others.
Read, learn, trust the experts, and improve your game, or waste more time away from friends and family chasing a fools folly.
Here's where you start: http://jacobsongaming.com/apheat/
There are several methods described in detail that will enable you to really get the edge and win.
(If you're serious about the game, then read it, eat it, drink it, learn it!)
And for heavens sake put away the absurd up as you lose progressions and pattern nonsense before someone loses and eye!
Xander
By now, I would hope that you would have moved beyond chasing imaginary patterns. Some of you have been on these boards for years.
There's a real way to get an edge at baccarat. It's documented and it's won millions.
Risk consultants around the world will tell you it's the biggest AP threat out there.
It's called "sort play". I've described it in some detail in another post.
Rather than building on the same foundation of ignorance, over and over and over and over and over and over and over...Take the time to research and build on the knowledge that more experienced people have posted. Read what the experts and gaming consultants are saying. Listen to those of us that can actually do the math and are experts on the game. Believe it or not, we're not here to mislead you as part of some vast conspiracy.
Watching people rediscover the pattern tracking is like watching them reinvent the Martinagle day after day. It's been tried to death, and it doesn't work!!!
If you don't believe me, then trust what other gaming experts have to say. People like the Wizard of Odds, Dr. Elliot Jacobson, and others.
Read, learn, trust the experts, and improve your game, or waste more time away from friends and family chasing a fools folly.
Here's where you start: http://jacobsongaming.com/apheat/
There are several methods described in detail that will enable you to really get the edge and win.
(If you're serious about the game, then read it, eat it, drink it, learn it!)
And for heavens sake put away the absurd up as you lose progressions and pattern nonsense before someone loses and eye!
Xander
#126
Methods' results / Re: Sputniks own private XXVVs WF3 testing.
February 16, 2014, 03:33:55 AMQuoteInviting Xander to dinner would have the unfortunate result of all the guests losing their appetites and leaving because he would have deflated the evening like a Led Zeppelin and insulted Chef Ramsey over his poor record at Glasgow Rangers.
Don't take it personally Xander remember the Bayes Mantra.
XXVV
Wow, if I made a comment like that then you'd be demanding that the mods ban me.
Try and stick to the thread XXVV.
#127
Methods' results / Re: Sputniks own private XXVVs WF3 testing.
February 16, 2014, 12:23:01 AMQuoteI respect XXVV point of view and this strategy is not new.-Sputnik
It's been around since the invention of the game.
QuoteThere's something missing here which is what I forgot to include in the first version of the program. If the stop loss kicks in (meaning a 4th number has repeated but no number has hit 3 times) then you play virtually until a number hits the 3rd time, then quit the session and start re-tracking.
-Bayes
Bayes, on the RNG wheels it's simply not going to matter. All that will change is the number of spins on which a bet is made. A live wheel, is something different all together.
QuoteI notice that others think they can run simulations non-stop and show results.
It will fail like all other methods, my opinion.
There will always be Good days, Average days and Bad days.
To handle the variation and keep away from the deep hole, we need MM and rules.
I am talking about Entering points and Exit points, when to attack and when to quit.
One Average day that would result in loses overall end up with positive expectation.
One Bad day that would result in catastrophic scenario end up with a small tiny loss.
That is my point.
You can not get away with fuzzy and sloppy attitude.
You see a winning strike jump on board and try you luck or you losing then stop, but when is that.
I don't give much for guess work.
-Sputnik
Guys,
Regarding RNG: MM and rules don't matter a bit if you're attempting to play this on RNG data. Afterall, why should it?
Some logic and commonsense needs to prevail.
Regarding a live wheel: On a live wheel, what also determines when you should quit are the playing conditions. Your entry and exit points should be based on things like the wheel direction, wheel speed, the dealer, the ball, and the dominant ball drop zones. This is something that you guys can't see or measure when looking at just your raw data. I've already been down this road many years ago. If you're just chasing the raw data alone, then you're simply spinning your wheels.
-Good luck,
-Xander
#128
Methods' results / Re: XXVV's WF3 system
February 14, 2014, 05:51:14 PM
Gordonline,
It's close enough for reasons which I've already described in the post above.
It's close enough for reasons which I've already described in the post above.
#129
Methods' results / Re: XXVV's WF3 system
February 14, 2014, 05:06:31 PM
Attached is a simulation of the 3 in 30 and a 4 in 30 qualifying bet. There are two separate simulations attached. I used numbers from random.org. It's a very good RNG. 10k trials were used. Millions of simulations can easily be run, but there's no point to it. As we run more trials, the results will approach the long term expectation of -2.7% on the single zero wheel. It's true that there would be the occasional lucky winning 10k spin sample, but the sum of all the samples will still be a net loser. After all why should we expect anything different when using an RNG?
The horizon is set at a rolling horizon of 30 spins. There is no stop loss limit, because there's no reason whatsoever to have one if you're going to be using RNG numbers. Using a stop loss limit would produce the same results as not using one. The difference would be that you would not be betting on as many spins. As your test trial sizes increase, you will discover that this is the case.
On the live wheel, the stop loss should be based on whether or not it's the same dealer. Since you don't know whether it's the same dealer in your current simulations, and since you don't know if the playing conditions are the same from one spin to the next, the stop loss will not change your long term expectation in the simulations.
XXVV,
The money management part of your method (stop loss) isn't doing anything to help the edge. Especially on RNG wheels for reasons that are described above. RNGs do not produce "fertile" moments or a "range of behavior" that you can capitalize on. So the "chase and the quest for perfection" is nothing more than an exercise in futility.
I suggest you stick to the live wheels, and use some real stop loss indicators, such as the one partially described above.
The result of the 3 in 30 test over 10k trials (8924 bets) was
Edge -3.17%
Loss of 537 units
It's very close to expectation.
-Xander
The horizon is set at a rolling horizon of 30 spins. There is no stop loss limit, because there's no reason whatsoever to have one if you're going to be using RNG numbers. Using a stop loss limit would produce the same results as not using one. The difference would be that you would not be betting on as many spins. As your test trial sizes increase, you will discover that this is the case.
On the live wheel, the stop loss should be based on whether or not it's the same dealer. Since you don't know whether it's the same dealer in your current simulations, and since you don't know if the playing conditions are the same from one spin to the next, the stop loss will not change your long term expectation in the simulations.
QuoteEssence of the WF game is trap as many winners at that peak of the bell curve and minimise your losses in that endeavour so to work ever more efficiently. As the curve moves, sways in a range of behaviour you need to note its limits but where it is most fertile and attack there, especially when its moving into optimum phase. That is really exciting work and very rewarding. Enjoy the chase and the quest for that perfection. Go for it! -XXVV
XXVV,
The money management part of your method (stop loss) isn't doing anything to help the edge. Especially on RNG wheels for reasons that are described above. RNGs do not produce "fertile" moments or a "range of behavior" that you can capitalize on. So the "chase and the quest for perfection" is nothing more than an exercise in futility.
I suggest you stick to the live wheels, and use some real stop loss indicators, such as the one partially described above.
The result of the 3 in 30 test over 10k trials (8924 bets) was
Edge -3.17%
Loss of 537 units
It's very close to expectation.
-Xander
#130
Methods' results / Re: XXVV's WF3 system
February 14, 2014, 03:03:16 AMQuotePaul, my Attorney, has no sense of humour at all, and gets very irritated my lack of precision in speech and action.-XXVV
I can see why. You need to add the word "by" in the blank space. "gets very irritated _________ my lack of precision in speech and action."
Not to worry, I make erroRrr time often too.
#131
General Discussion / Re: Golden Nugget Atlantic City NJ USA online Casino
February 13, 2014, 11:40:19 PM
I wish they showed their live wheels.
#132
Methods' results / Re: XXVV's WF3 system
February 13, 2014, 11:32:58 PM
If the samples were small, it would be virtually impossible to tell the difference. The larger the sample, the easier it is to tell the difference.
In the example above, you'd have to run a large number of RNG simulations in order to find one that was similar to the live wheel on the left.
In the example above, you'd have to run a large number of RNG simulations in order to find one that was similar to the live wheel on the left.
#133
Methods' results / Re: XXVV's WF3 system
February 13, 2014, 10:51:54 PM
One was at the table where you told people that you bet $40 to the number. The funny thing was that when I looked at it the max bet at the table, it was only $25. Kind of funny hmmmm.
#134
Methods' results / Re: XXVV's WF3 system
February 13, 2014, 09:26:44 PM
Turner,
It will slightly reduce the house edge on some live wheels for reasons that most people will not understand. The physics involved are outside of what the ordinary gambler can grasp.
Stepkevh,
There isn't one. That's why betting the hottest number(s) on an RNG is futile.
I know you think that I can't think outside of the box, but what you don't realize is that I've been at this game far longer than most people. I don't just gamble for the hell of it. It's what I do professionally. I have some extremely advanced simulators written by some of the best and brightest people out there. I know what works, and I know what's a fool's folly.
If you want to attempt to beat an RNG, record several million trials, and then start using some of the online RNG fitness testing programs that are available from people like random.org.
This 3 in 30 stuff has been simulated a zillion times over the decades. There's nothing new or novel about betting the hottest number. It's been simulated to death. It's by far better than betting on the coldest numbers because there's an outside chance that the dealer/wheel combination may yield and edge do to some kind of bias.
AP stands for advantage play. Basically, it's what everyone on this board is chasing - A way to actually get the edge over the casino, so that they can win in the long run. Anyone that tells you otherwise is probably lying.
The simple fact is, if you can't find a way to get the edge, then you simply can't win in the long run. Anyone that says otherwise is likely illiterate, or a drunken imbecile with a gambling problem.
-Xander
It will slightly reduce the house edge on some live wheels for reasons that most people will not understand. The physics involved are outside of what the ordinary gambler can grasp.
QuoteTell me Xander, where is the slight bias that can exist with the dealer/wheel combination on RNG-Offline Stepkevh
QuoteJust learn to think out of the box- Stepkevh
Stepkevh,
There isn't one. That's why betting the hottest number(s) on an RNG is futile.
I know you think that I can't think outside of the box, but what you don't realize is that I've been at this game far longer than most people. I don't just gamble for the hell of it. It's what I do professionally. I have some extremely advanced simulators written by some of the best and brightest people out there. I know what works, and I know what's a fool's folly.
If you want to attempt to beat an RNG, record several million trials, and then start using some of the online RNG fitness testing programs that are available from people like random.org.
This 3 in 30 stuff has been simulated a zillion times over the decades. There's nothing new or novel about betting the hottest number. It's been simulated to death. It's by far better than betting on the coldest numbers because there's an outside chance that the dealer/wheel combination may yield and edge do to some kind of bias.
AP stands for advantage play. Basically, it's what everyone on this board is chasing - A way to actually get the edge over the casino, so that they can win in the long run. Anyone that tells you otherwise is probably lying.
The simple fact is, if you can't find a way to get the edge, then you simply can't win in the long run. Anyone that says otherwise is likely illiterate, or a drunken imbecile with a gambling problem.
-Xander
#135
Methods' results / Re: XXVV's WF3 system
February 13, 2014, 07:22:39 PMQuote
Believe it or not ...
RNG does work with WF3
NOT.
There's no logical reason for it. Besides, I've already tested RNG in the past. It's a waste of time.
The only reason betting the hottest number cuts the edge slightly is because of a slight bias that can exist with the dealer/wheel combination.