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[alrelax]

 
"Re: For those who think house edge or negative expectation is the sole culprit
« Reply #75 on: Yesterday at 02:10:42 AM »


Every bet will get this much variance for sure, in the long run. People seems to miss even a remedy for this.

If I say, there will be 500 wins of a number in 18500 spins and we can not get the scatter of the wins, most of the intelligent players around here will have a soar throat beating just that. If the number of win lessens to 450, they will lose thousands of chips and might be only losing all over. I have seen this clearly in my #3 challenge on zumma book. "
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I might be wrong, but I will take a min and run the numbers real quick.  This is why I am against 'the mathematical statistics' of any game.  Sure they are correct, but they are, and 100% dependent upon the long run as well.  Following a math or stat reasoning on a table game,  You might get some positive hits or even the once-in-a-while 'win' produced ration to losses, but what do you have to risk to get Point 'B' from within 'Point A'?

Point 'A'----The series referred to;

Point 'B'----The 'win' from the series.

Every game has been attack by the math and statistical pros from the classroom aspect.  They ran millions and billions of hands to find out, 'what happens'.  Fine.  Not wrong.  But cannot be applied in any real—shape and form, to give the player a 'real and definitive' edge. 

Why, simply because of what I just did.  Again, it might be wrong, but whatever.

500 Wins/18,500 Spins. 
2 Mins. Average a spin (in real life casinos) not on the computer of course.
2 Mins. Translates to 120 seconds.
That translates to 2,220,000 seconds
3,600 seconds in 1 hour.
To spin and play 18,500 spins to be assured (if math will assure every series, every time those wins) it would take 616 to 617 hours to play that series of spins.

Okay, Superman, lots of energy drinks and coffee, etc.  He plays it.  Stay there and plays straight through the 616-617 hours.  You cannot stop, walk away and continue later, like so many math/stat freaks think, because the 'series' will be gone—not the same one, etc.

Okay, back.  Straight through.  Superman (the math/stat freak believer) hires numerous people to play the 25 to 26 days straight. 

One unit, $25.00, one green chip.  Say the 500 wins are going to be straight up number, 1 unit yields 35 chips/units payout.  He would win, $25.00 X's 35, equals $875.00. POINT B: He wins a total of $437,500.00 on the 500 wins.  Likewise, 18,500 spins, minus the 500 wins, leaves 18,000 lost spins on that number.  18,000 times $25.00 chip that was lost to the casino. POINT A: He losses a total of $450.000.00.  Great. 

Every math/stat results would have to be played from the start to the end, to realize the math produced result, no? 

Or is there a way to sprinkle a bit of magical dust, somewhere along the way—during those series?

As Mark Twain said....."It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble.  It's what you know for sure that just ain't so".

[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

My half cent...
The HE is for the casino versus the gamblers as ONE ENTITY.
Then..
Why people lose after many session?
Because their strategy or whatever system can't overcome certain PERMUTATIONS!

eg.
Martingale can't stand ONLY ONE streak of loss..eg, 10losses in row.
Labby can't overcome permutation that less than 33%.hits...
Flatbet can't stand less than 50% hit, no matter how long.

Every system or method or strategy you can think out, there WILL BE CERTAIN PERMUTATIONS
THAT KILL YOUR BR.

eg,
Lest you can't understand what I mean.

"Bet only once, red only."
There will  ONLY... three PERMUTATIONS
1) red....win.
2) black ....lose.
3) green...lose.

"BET BACCARAT,MARTINGALE, only enough br FOR 10bets..."
the PERMUTATION, that wipes out your br,
Ten losses in row.
But for roulette, there hundreds of permutation,
As the pesky green create losing permutation too.
eg..

LLLLLGLLLL as an example..

Thus Albalaha is right, its not the EDGE,
BUT LOSING PERMUTATION, THAT CAUSED THE LOSSE$!

Then the trillion dollar question, and the answer that cause
the demise of casino...

How to win by bypassing the losing permutation?

Albalaha already providing the answers, in his threads, but people just brushed it off...

1) avoidance , by waiting the losing permutation to hit first.
2) stop betting, when another losing permutation hit. To avoid more losing.
3) having a filtering system, that always producing hit within
losing math expectation.. (  yes..., losing,.. losing WITHIN MATH
EXPECTATION, or else, the math boys shrieking their lung out! Hehehe )say, next 1000bet flatbet,
Losing 30 to 40unit most of the time.

4) having mild progression, that will profit when STREAKS OF HIT HAPPEN....!
YES, streaks of hit very important, or else,  no progression
can produce profit.

[Albalaha]

                                         I m not denying the prowess of house edge. It is one of the vital forces that backs a casino business. House edge, by itself, creates variance too. Any bet you take in roulette or baccarat will hit below break even point in the long run due to this disadvantage but still the House edge alone is not sufficient to guarantee a win for casino. Ignorance of players of the law of small and large numbers and idiotic progressions kill them. Most of the players entering casino are ignorant ones and rely merely on their good luck to get a winning streak. Even those who are lucky enough to win in the beginning stay till they get empty handed finally.