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[gr8player]

I trend.  That's the crux of my Baccarat play and approach, I trend.

Now, why would I choose to play like that?  After all, aren't these cards simply pieces of plastic with pips on them?  So how in the heck are they supposed to, somehow, conform to my way of thinking and to my approach to this game and form any kind of TRENDS?  Impossible, right?  And, lastly, isn't it true that it is all in our heads, this "trend" thing, where we're simply "making something of absolutely nothing"?

One word answer:  W.R.O.N.G!

Trends happen.  They ARE REAL.  Like it or not, they ARE REAL.

That's EXACTLY WHY I play this closed-end shoe game...no other reason.  There are, unquestionably, certain traits, certain characteristics, in each and every dealt shoe.  Those traits, those characteristics...they are trends, constantly forming and, well, un-forming.

Now...the key...the KEY...is in the WHEN you see them:

Do you spot trends after they're about exhausted?

OR, hopefully, can you spot them at their ONSET; in other words, can you ANTICIPATE them?

Ahhh, my friends, those true trenders that truly believe in their trending game....those are the players that can anticipate shoe changes and trends in their earliest stages.

Those are the real trending believers....those THAT CAN.

Does it mean they're always right?  Of course not.

Last Thursday night/Friday afternoon sessions, I must've lost 5 bets in-a-row at least twice, maybe three times.  So what?

I've faith in my trends, and I know they'll come around, if only I stay patient, stay the course.

And, sure enough, they did...my winning for those two sessions was 10 1/2 units, after comm.

Now, does MM come into play?  Sure it does.  My preferred trends will, usually, when I'm right, bring wins in "clusters", and so I do a lot of parlaying.  (Sidenote:  By "a lot", I mean that I do it often, but not consecutively...I won't go further than simply a two-stage parlay...1 - 2.)

So, in effect, I can suffer 6 straight losses and lose, well, 6 units; but whenever I win 6 bets in-a-row, I'll pick up 9 units.  That's 50% more than I lost.  Now, can't we all agree that we do need to win more on our winners than we lose on our losers?  Well, OK, yes...to a point.  we never our bets outside of our comfort zone...rather, the example I showed was utilizing the exact same unit size...no bump-up at all.

So while we want to win more, especially for recoup and/or profit purposes, we don't want to do it in any "suicidal" manner...for, eventually, you will "kill off" your entire bankroll.

So we try to control our bets, and, when necessary, raise them only incrementally.

But, as to where I choose to bet, I choose to trend.  I'll get on as early as I can, attempting to ANTICIPATE the twists and turns of each shoe (or portion thereof)....when I'm wrong my loss is kept as minimal as possible, but when I'm right I'll effectively pick up some nice parlays.

The key to trending is consistency (stick with your preferred plays) and early betting triggers (or anticipation, if you will) in order to glean as much as you can from that current trend.

I wish you all the very best of it.

[wannawin]

Good topic. Note that this specific casino game lends itself to favor a specific mental state for connoisseurs players because it does not have a carry over. I think in contrast to roulette and other games being forced to focus on beating a small universe called shoe is what makes the difference.

To focus on winning many small battles and a good exit strategy with minimal damage may lead to a positive balance even if it does not win 100%.

The means to do just that deserve to be brought to the forefront of discussion. Nice job.

[gr8player]

Hello, Wannawin, I trust all is well with you, and thank you for your keen insight.  Spot on.

Look, trends happen.  There's no denying that fact.  And they happen, particularly, in this closed end shoe game of Baccarat, where each and every shoe will, somehow, some way, carry its very own "signature".  It may not last the entire shoe (oh, how wonderful when it does), but there will, undoubtedly, be rather "trendable" portions.

So, they exist.  Now, my friends, the key question then becomes:

Can I make money on them?

Short answer:  ABSOLUTELY

Oh, you'll need some patience and you'll need some discipline and you'll need to manage your session bankroll.....but, rest assured, there's money in defining certain shoe trends.

I've been living it and doing it for some many years now.

You've got to approach the game a little bit as a salesman does a prospective buyer....with the attitude of "I won't take NO for an answer."  Trending requires a commitment on the players part that leads the player into winning situations MOST of the time.  The better players even know what to do when that MOST is NOT happening right now...that's where bankroll conservation comes in.  And then they pounce.....when their trends show, the good trender reaps his for all its worth.

Baccarat is a trender's paradise, because it's a closed end shoe game and you can sit out (read: "no-bet") as often as necessary.  And you can bet it up as you wish when your preferred play is poppin'.

Just acquire some patience to await your preferred plays and the discipline to stay the course, along with sharp bankroll management.......
.......and, yes, my friends, the "trend can truly be your friend".

I wish it for all of you.

[AsymBacGuy]

Interesting post.


as. 

[gr8player]

Yes, it is an interesting subject, AsymBacGuy.

Trend recognition is not anything new.  The majority of Bac players play to the current trend.

There are a couple of things that separates the winners, however:

1.)  Timing

It goes without saying that the sooner one can get their bets down into an impending trend, the better.  Recognizing a trend after it's near exhaustion just won't cut it....one needs a viable trigger that puts them onto a trend at the earliest of positions.

2.)  Patience and Discipline

Yeah...I keep right on harping about it.  Have to.  It's my job.  I've got nothing without it.  Know this:  All that separates the winners from the losers at this game is THE ABILITY TO AWAIT THE CORRECT TABLE CONDITIONS.

3.)  The "No-Bet"

When I print my E-book, the method...MY method...will have that as its title:  The "No-Bet"  Why?:  Because, my friends, most of the time there's nothing of value to place your money on.  So I've adapted the attitude that I'm there, at the Bac table, NOT to bet, BUT to observe.  I am an observer.  Then, when I see a potential "dom" (read: strong trend play with winning "clusters" potential), only then, I pounce.  I pounce with a slight up-as-I-win progression in order to maximize my profit on it, even if it's not as lasting a trend as I'd prefer.  In other words, I "lock up" a profit on it as quickly as possible. 

That's basically the way that I approach this game, and, trust me on this one, AsymBacGuy, I play it very, very well.  I am one tough out for any casino.

But it took a lot of hard work to get here.  I didn't get here by reading some guy's post on the internet.  I played the game, I lived the game, and I decided that if I were to continue that I'd better beat the game. 

As always, I wish it for all of you.

Stay well.

[Rolex-Watch]

We look forward to your E-Book, will it go into more detail than which you have posted on the internet over the years?  If it you do decide to go into detail AND it makes sense, you stand a chance of convincing scepticals, if it is reflection of years of waffle, then it is the status quo.

Point 1, is placing too much emphasis on luck
Point 2, patience and discipline, I can agree with
Point 3, is a steal from the recent post concerning the roulette players banned from a casino in the UK

So you are now claiming to be able to beat the game?  [smiley]afb/lol.gif[/smiley] I wish I could make that claim despite my winning sessions. 

[gr8player]

We look forward to your E-Book.....

You should be.  It'll redefine this game, especially for those patient and disciplined trenders.

Here's but a small taste:

The majority of trenders are "looking under the wrong rocks" to find their bet selections.

Seek out the 1's.  Concentrate on the 1's.

Then when you see them, bet, obviously, the opposite decision.

Obviously, the real "gravy" comes in when that opposite side is "dominating".  But, even if it isn't, the bet still becomes to bet against that "weak" side that's stopping at 1 (or 2, at most).

And I shouldn't have to mention the inherent advantages of having the 1's (and/or 2's at most) as your trending "target"....they can be "plentiful" rather often....and that's where you'll be raking in the chips.  That, and the "dominations" that often accompany this type of play, will leave the patient and disciplined trender absolutely GOLDEN.

You're not a trender, Rolex-Watch...so I suspect that you find this information fruitless for your type of play.  That shouldn't serve, however, as any valid reason to trash it.

[Rolex-Watch]

Correct I'm am not a trender, althought I have been there, only to discover it is an exercise in futility. 

All that matters is, does it work for you.

I have already redefined this game, mathematically. 

[gr8player]

The "futility" that you mention is wide-spread among trenders; you are not exclusive, rather, typical.

The main reason for that is, IMHO, most trenders "cast too wide of a net" in their attempts to catch a trend...any trend.

Therein lies the source of their frustrations and futilities.

Rather than trying to become a "Jack Of All Trades", might it be preferable to be a "Master Of One"?  I believe so.

Concentrating on those singles and, sometimes, twos, will serve both to taper one's play and get them rather adept at spotting "doms"....and, let's make no mistake of it, the greatest advantage of playing any EC game is the clusters of wins produced by "dominations", where one side is winning the majority of the current decisions.

Mix in a MM plan that'll serve to maximize profitability and you're GOLDEN.

(Sidenote:  It bears mentioning that I also utilize a separate and distinct MM plan for recoup purposes, either on a shoe-to-shoe or even session-by-session basis.  No bet selection process wins every hand, so there will be drawdowns, and one needs a viable plan to address those as well.  BUUUTTT when you utilize a positive progression for the "doms", you'll find that both recoup and profitability come to you rather efficiently.)

[Rouletta]

Very good post; Does the same principles applying to roulette as well when playing ec's.....?
Thanks.

[gr8player]

I'm not a roulette player, Rouletta, but I'm of the opinion that, yes, any EC game would suffice.

That said, wouldn't the zero(es) negatively affect your results?

You might be better served by asking someone with a lot more roulette experience than I.

I wish you the very best of it.

[split-monster]

Very good post; Does the same principles applying to roulette as well when playing ec's.....?
Thanks.

Split the layout in 4 sections. 1-9 = 1.  10-18 = 2.  19-27 = 3.  28-36 = 4.

3,3,4,1,3,1,3,4,1,3,4,4,4,3,2,3,4,3,3,3. This is a run of 3 and 4 with only single intervals of the 1 and 2.

2,2,3,4,1,2,2,3,2,3,2,4,4,2,2,4,3,2,4,4,4,4,4,1,2,4,4,2,2. Here is a run of 2 and 4 with single intervals of 1 and 3. These can be played as an ec bet. Both these runs happened today within a short space of time on a live wheel.

The first run gave 16/20 3 and 4's. The second run gave 24/30 2 and 4's. Plenty of time to see what's happening and win a few units.

[AsymBacGuy]

gr8player, I'm wondering what we could do sharing our ideas... 


as.




 

[Rouletta]

gr8player, split-monster,  AsymBacGuy thanks for your replies.

[AsymBacGuy]

Hi rouletta.

To constantly win at baccarat we must study and register what happens in the long run because things aren't proportionally placed (the 50.68-49.32 probability is a long term finding)

At roulette we cannot benefit of this luxury, any spin is totally independent from the previous one and long term results confirm this (any hand follows its mathematical expectancy).

Imo at roulette the only thing we can do, other than staying very far from it, is trying to get an advantage on small betting cycles, that is to admit that some spins' sequences are not perfectly random produced.
In a word, betting that some observed events will be more likely in the close future than their counterpart not having show up so far. That is preferring to bet on what just happened opposed to chase what never happened. Well knowing that in the long run everything will be perfectly balanced.
Adopting this line of thought, your super limited observations seem to be somewhat interesting.

as.