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[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

After reading thousands of threads debating why we lose...I THINK...
we lose because our methods , strategies, systems, voodoo,  guts, bla, bla, blah...
can't win over certain permutations...
There always one, two, three, or certain percentage of permutations,  that kill our br.

Lest the newbie can't understand. !,,
Here few easy example..

Say , we want to bet martingale for 10bets, in baccarat,  in no commission type...super6.
The  permutations will kill you.

1) Six, that pays half, ruin your br
2) 10 losing streaks....kills you.

In roulette, 10steps martingale.
only 10 losses in row kills,
But with pesky green zero thrown in, there will many permutations that kills

Say , you bet RED, MARTHY...
THE outcomes. ?.
1) 10BLACKS IN ROW.
2) 9BLACKS WITH A GREEN..
3) 8BLACKS WITH 2 GREEN.
4) 7 BLACK S WITH 3 GREEN...(an so on...till 10greens in row..oops! Not me, the mathboys say it possible mathwise!)

And in Labby,
Any rows with less than 33%, will soon take away your upperwear, and underwear....


And.." follow the last", lose when chopping goes on....

Follow second last, lose when the losing permutation hit...

Betting single dozen , flatbet, lose when less than 33% permutations hit
Double dozens, lose, when less than 66% hit...

Thus with whatever method, you devised, there will be certain permutation s that cause losses.

So how to win .?!?!

[8OR9]

I wrote this post a few weeks ago in the General Discussion Forum......my opinion as to the best way to win in the long run.

It all comes down to :

1) Having a sufficient bankroll to withstand the inevitable large drawdowns

2. Having a very conservative money management method where you can recover the drawdowns........ since we are all playing negative expectation games and will win less than 50 % of our bets, we will eventually have to increase our bet size to win more money on our winning bets than we lose on our losing bets.




Follow these 6 steps and anyone can beat the casino at any game,...... dice, baccarat, sicbo, roulette ....

If you can't follow all these 6 steps, you will probably  lose.

1. Select a bet size where by your bankroll will not run up against the table maximum when you use your money management methodology to recover from a drawdown.

2. Use a very conservative money management methodology where you can recover a significant drawdown without hitting the table maximum......for instance, play at 
a $ 15 dollar minimum table and use a money management methodology  such as
111111111111111 22222222 etc etc ....

where you bet 1 unit, and if on any series of bets you are down 15 units, then bet 2 units until you are ahead 1 unit and then go back to betting 1 unit...there are of course many other methods you can use......but they must all be conservative.

3 Ensure that your bankroll can withstand a 100 unit drawdown flat betting

In the above example, your bankroll should be at least  $ 1,500

if your bet size is $ 15 ( $ 15 bet size x 100 unit worst case drawdown = $ 1,500 )

4. Make sure that your bankroll is in real dollars, not some wet dream,  and place the bankroll and all the accumulated future profits and losses in a separate place,,,,,,,,,such as a small portable safe.......walmart sells one for about $ 30.

5. Keep a spreadsheet of your beginning bankroll and all future profits and losses

6. You must have patience to follow your money management plan and not go on "tilt" like poker players who are on a losing streak.

Size your bets using your money management methodology so that you can eventually make up your drawdown even if it takes 3,4 or 5 sessions of betting.

Number 6 above, patience, is probably the most important......trying to make up a drawdown by raising your bets too large and too fast and neglecting your money management, methodology will probably ruin any chance or achieving profitability.

Also, if you are using an aggressive progression betting system ( like a labby,  reverse labby etc etc ) , all the above gets much more complicated since you can easily lose 10 to 20 units in a bad shoe...and you will have numerous bad shoes.

Using an aggressive betting size where you can lose 10 to 20 units on a  series of bets requires a much more intense analysis of bet size and money management methodology versus flat betting....... and requires a very, very, very large bankroll because if you use an aggressive betting size, you will eventually run into a series of bets where you will be down between 200 and 500 units

The higher the risk, the higher the reward and the higher the bankroll required.

So that's how you beat the casino...and maybe 1 out of 10,000 customers in a casino will follow all 6 steps.

[Sputnik]

I thought loses was part of the game and you accept them.
Not saying I am flat betting, but want to show 100 session results using total mechanical rules.

+87 units
-27 units
= +60 units


- - - - - - - - - -

1. +3
2. -6
3. +7
4. +3
5. +0
6. +5
7. +2
8. +1.5
9. +3.5
10. +3

+28
-6
= +22

1. +2
2. +1.5
3. +5
4. -6
5. -0.5
6. +2
7. +5
8. +2
9. +2
10. -6

+25.5
-12.5
= +13

1. +3
2. +4
3. -0.5
4. +3
5. +2
6. +2
7. +2
8. +0
9. -6.5
10. +2

+18
-7
= +11

1. -6.5
2. -6
3. -6.5
4. +6
5. +2
6. +6.5
7. +2
8. -6
9. +2
10. +2

+21
-25
= -4

1. +2
2. +3
3. +3
4. +0
5. -6
6. +4
7. +2.5
8. +1.5
9. +2
10. -6

+18
-12
= +6

1. +1.5
2. +2
3. +2
4. +2
5. +1.5
6. -1
7. +6
8. +3
9. +1.5
10. -0.5

+19.5
-1.5
= +18

1. +1.5
2. +0
3. +2
4. +0
5. +2
6. +2
7. +2
8. -0.5
9. +1.5
10. +3

+14
-0.5
= +13.5

1. +0
2. +4
3. -6
4. +0
5. +2
6. +4
7. +0
8. +0
9. -6
10. -6.5

+10
-18.5
= -8.5

1. -6.5
2. +1.5
3. +0
4. +0
5. +2
6. +2
7. +1.5
8. -6
9. +5
10. +4

+16
-12.5
= +3.5

-7
-6
+3
-6
+1.5
+2
+4
-6
-0.5
+2.5

+11
-25.5
= -14.5

TOTAL

+87
-27
= +60

[soxfan]

So, to win regular and well a cat gotta have a sufficient bankroll, imagine that, hey hey.

[Sputnik]

Much talk about bankroll, some use small % of bankroll and some use the whole bankroll to tackle the worst.
My point was that some accept loses and don't put the whole bankroll at risk when others risk everything and the whole bankroll.
Do you see the difference?

Cheers

[8OR9]

You don't put the whole bankroll at risk if you use a small % of bankroll for each bet.

For example, if your total bankroll is $2,000, risk only 1.5 % of bankroll on each bet which is $ 30.....and only rick 8 % of bankroll on each session which is $ 160.

A session can be any number of bets or shoes or spins that you feel is conservative.

[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

Then play virtually till u have the huge drawdown, then start playing anew..?