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[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

Hi Sputnik aka Ego,
We all know you a respected expert in the SERIES/SINGLE  systems.

There a million dollar question, regarding the betting EC, as series/single bet,
as you see, they always tend to RTM, after long ecart,
But that long ecart is the real problem, when progression, even with very mild , and variance avoidance strategy,
tend to snowball to unmanageable level.

Do you have any idea how to manipulate , or filter them, so in short term, or very short term,( say 30 to 50 bet risked,   or taken),
the result very near to 50/50 win/lose ratio.


If we can have a strategy that always near 50/50, then we could outwait the short variance, after virtual win, and bet the rest with mild progression.


(With due respect, those without knowledge of series/single, may read previous thread of them, and refrain talking  rubbish here.)

[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

Series/single already researched, to death, by many before, since first casino open shop,
By itself, it a filter to expected rtm, we need another filter, to filter the filtered , so to attain a better ratio
WITHIN MATH EXPECTATION, around 50%,
(I said AROUND 50%.)

We not looking for POSITIVE RESULT,
THAT'S IMPOSSIBLE, in long run.
we looking for a VERY STABLE METHOD, that always LOSE, if flatbet,
within the math expectation. slightly below 50%.

I said, FLATBET RESULT, that LOSE, as expected, within the math calculation.
The  newbie , google *MATH EXPECTATION, * for baccarat and roulette

[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

BT ITSELF,
The series/single, may not ALWAYS NEAR balanced, but it is interesting to see that after....
1) after many SERIES of series, with little single, then the rest series single may near expectations

I said the REST.

if we see tens of series happened, with little single,
  then the REST tens of series single will always TEND to around 50%

The reversed also happened,
If we see long  tens  of single, with little SERIES, 
Then the REST of series vs single, TENDS to around 50%.

2) the
series/series/series,
Series/single/series,
Series/single/single,...
As expoused by Sputnik,
also very interesting to note, as filter to 50%.

3) follow the last,
series or single, to happen again , also very interesting.
After a series break, expect the next to series,
After a single break, expect the next to single...
expect a STREAK of series, or streak of single hit, after a long CHOPS hit.
(Series/single/series/single........)


We need virtual lose, and after a virtual win, expecting the rest will rtm in short term.

[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

When we have faith, that a strategy may always around50%.
(I said, MAY ALWAYS AROUND 50%)

Then....
a progression, that less deadly then the almighty Martingale,
Is 123456789....to positive, then stop.

The other less deadly then above, is..

112233445566778899...to positive, stop.

[Gizmotron]

You can't know a thing before it happens in a game with independent trials.


"The outcome of one event won't affect the next. Rolling a
die or spinning the roulette wheel has no effect on the next roll
or spin. However, dealing cards without replacement increases
the chances of the remaining cards to be dealt."


If you play a game where you know you are going to end up close to even, along the lines of the house edge, then why not flat bet to win. There will be times when the corrections of the negative side will process more to the positive side while the long run is seeking balance. Why not target corrections with a higher flat bet values and pull back to minimums during declines from balance.



http://www.scholarpedia.org/article/Law_of_series


"The dispute around the law of series clearly concerns only such events for which there are no obvious clustering mechanisms, and they are expected to appear completely independently from each-other, and yet, they do appear in series. With this restriction the law of series belongs to the category of unexplained mysteries, such as synchronicity, telepathy or Murphy's Law, and is often considered a manifestation of paranormal forces that exist in our world and escape scientific explanation. It is a subject of a long-lasting controversy centered around two questions:


1. Does there indeed exist a law of series in reality or is it just an illusion, a matter of our selective perception or memory?
2. Assuming it does exist, what could it be caused by?"


Coincidence. There should be a scientific law of coincidence.

[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

Interesting to note that,  series vs single also happen in DOZENS of baccarat.
There series of same dozen,
And singles of a  dozen.

say, ABC = dozen 123.

AA, BBB, CCC =SERIES.(any repeat of dz)
ABABACABCA=LONG STREAK OF SINGLE.(no dozen repeat)
AAABCCC=SERIES, SINGLE, SERIES,

in long term also rtm to math expectation,
But we need to filter them, to expectation,  to avoid long snowballing of progression.


33% single
66% series, with green thrown in.

[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

Dear Gizmotron,
With due respect,
The series single already researched to death since casino open a stall.

What they found is , they behaved as math expected, after very long run,
They may not, balanced, but always near rtm. As you see, we could wait for a streak to hit, then EXPECT THE OTHER SIDE TO HIT WITHIN MATH EXPECTATION,
Not expect the other to catch up.
likewise your global, which always hit within expectation, after a streak.

[Gizmotron]

You can't know when a correction will occur or how strong it will be. I'm talking about RTM. If you use a progression it will encounter a sequence of death that kills all your progress. You can learn this two ways. You can research it outside of a casino or you can take it to the casino and learn the full effect of the lesson. Go for it. There won't be a progression that works because of a wishful thinking style of expectation. Coincidence never has a cause. It just happens. That includes the perfect sequence of death.

[Gizmotron]

... likewise your global, which always hit within expectation, after a streak.

Huh?

[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

Dear Giz,
The next EC bet is 50%, albeit green,
But as a sequence, say next 10bet, bet only red,
Then there will be best and worst,

Lets forget about the green for a moment,

Then the best will be RRRRRRRRRR ten red in row,
And the worst will be BBBBBBBBBB ten black in row.

Second best will be a single black anywhere in the 10spins sequence,
So if we flatbet all to end of all PERMUTATION, IT still 50% win lose.

Thrown in the zero, it may appear anywhere, once twice thrice, or even 10zeros in row,
(the mathboys say so!)
Thus the house has better standing.

Your global which you milked the streaks of hit, the streaks also a permutation out of millions permutations.
Thus after a streaks of unhit, there may streaks of hit, or streaks of unhit,  depending on your luck.
We can't know what permutation will hit, in next say , next 50spins, AFTER a streaks of 50hits of double dozens,
that's why you can't always win.

Thus we need a filter, (if it exist), to have permutation, that hit within math expectation.
Say, dozen , single dz  to hit around 30%,
or double dz to hit around 60%, hoping for streaks to hit somewhere.

That why you and I, still can't win constantly, because our strategy always
hit A LOSING PERMUTATION, no matter what last past 50spins permutation had formed before.

Thus we need filter to have closer hit  to the math expectation permutation.
Filter may worked, by betting when a past strategic  pattern, hoping next hit to hit as close to expected %.
Then expecting within math permutations to hit, and win with progression.
If we go by the mathboys, then ALL STRATEGY,  systems,  method, are useless, we only depend on luck to bet.

[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

Say, we bet only red, for 1spins,
Then the worst are a  black and a green.

If bet 2spins,
Then the worst are 2green, and 2 black, and black green or green black.

If 3spins ,
Then, 3green and 3black permutations,

The more hit you bet, then the permutation grow exponentially,
If unlucky, then bad, and worst permutation hit, and we lose our underwear...
The greatest problem, is we can't predict what permutation will hit in next 10, 20, 50, or 100spins,
Thus we try to filter them to avoid bad or extreme permutation, by waiting for bad permutation to appeared, then
hoping it won't happen back to back.

An example is,
Waiting for all six double streets to hit, in 6spins,
then bet all six won't hit in next six spins.
As back to back six in six spins, extremely rare.

[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

We can't expect a CORRECTION, after a long streak,
We expect a balanced permutations to hit after a bad permutation.
eg,
If we see a long streak of 66hit of double dozens, we can't expect the next 33hit will be single dz.

We expect the next 66spins to hit within math expectation.
That 66%/33%,  with greens thrown in,
and bet our luck.

Yes, luck.

[Sputnik]

What is your question? I have a bad habit of not reading everything when there is a lot of writing.

Been testing some different ways with different success using a march to catch regression.
One interesting thing I notice is that one event should go at least +1 into the other direction.

Here you get tiny, medium and large ways of regression and it depends on the window of events you observe and play.
Is like getting a blueprint where you know what is going to happen in the future, but you need a march to follow to catch does events of regression.

I will not debate the existence of regression as I know it real and manifest in all situations.
The point many are missing is that you only track and chart 100 trails each visit.
That is 300 trails for all three EC.
The expectation is to get at least one Ecart for every 1000 trails.
You can get more or less depending on how many different ways you measuring the EC using the Law Of Series.

Cheers

[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

Dear Sputnik,
With respect,
Thanks for your reply.

1) what is event +1 into the other direction?
2)why 300trials?  How there 300 for EC?
3) at least one extreme ecart in 1000trials,
Then how and what considered extreme ecart? In how many trial, imbalance ratio considered extreme ecart?

4)Most importantly,
please elaborate the LAW OF SERIES.

THANKS in advance, looking forward for your reply.

[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

For those who want to understand, below a post, I posted 2yrs ago.
With some amendments.
Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Gentlemen,
Single vs series, will have 50/50 minus edge,
just like betting P/B, or any EC game.

Sputnik, try to bet
single, vs series of two, vs series of three.

p/b/p/b=single/single/single/

pp/bb/pp/bb=series2/series2/series2

ppp/bbbb/ppppp=series3/series3/series3

[three repeat, and/or more=series3]

Sputnik believe that single vs series2 vs series3,
have the same probability as DOZEN bet!
Thus he believe that , betting dozen one two three,
same as betting single vs series2,vs series 3.

Thus he believe...
that the chances of
dozen 1/dozen2/dozen3, permutation= in next three trials

123, or 132, 213, 231, 312   ,321 =33%, minus edge.

he believe that
the chance of
single/series2/series3  [123] permutation,

all three hit and all three hit again in six spins,
same as

[dz1,dz2,dz3,/ dz1,dz2,dz3],permutation
three different dozens, in 3spins, and again in next 3spins
  in six spins,

Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

He believe when
single 1 and series3 hit,
then the chances of series 2,
will less likely.
The probabilty=33%, minus green.
eg.
pbpb=single, then

ppp=series 3, then

b.............(=he believe, b will not become series2,
thus he will bet that  it will not repeat.)

if it repeat, it become series2,
then he bet that series2,
will become 'series three'.
as series2 hit will less...likely (33%)
==============================

eg
pbpb/ppp/b

pbpb/single
ppp/ series3.
b-...........new hit, bet will not series2.
b-again...oops! become series2, bet will series 3.
p-......damn! (bb=series2....=lose) lose-2u flatbet.

==============================
pbpb/=single
ppp/ =series3.
b-...............new hit, bet will not series2.(bet 1u)
b-  again....oops! become series2, (lose-1u,  then bet 1u, series 2, will series 3.)
b-   again.....      win! become series3!  Win 1u.=0...

thus single/series3/series3.=no win, no loss,
as he try to catch the SINGLE MARCH!

eg pbpbpbpbpbpb...where the Majority OF PROFIT COME!

thus if single/series3/series2=LOSE!

============

My thinking is,
u will win/ and will lose, if u play flat.
but the chart line of profit/loss, will
oscillating up and down like a stable wave,
thus u need a mild progression,
and variance avoidance strategy to win,
which Sputnik realized, and keep  close to his chest