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[alrelax]

I marked it up and converted it to horizontal rather than vertical.  Vertical give an overall false impression of the results and old-school and original still prevails.  Vertical tends to contribute to what the casino wishes all players will do the majority of the times when scoring and tracking.  So many falsely believe, IMO about the cut and the time to change with the vertical aspect of it they will miss the highest majority of the times, the runs-streaks and repeats no matter if you are wagering for some or all. 

The shoe is strong which is great and easy to win larger sums of money on.  The first section is great.  The second section is weak and classic, followed by a third section of trying to come back to strong, and the ending which is the majority of the times weak.  Just look at his other shoes with the last 7 to 10 hands and see how most are weak, they are. 

Baccarat is not all the complicated.  Everyone makes it that way by their own wishful thinking of attempting like a warrior to change each and every shoe to fit their pre conceived notions to match their set protocol for how they will wager.  Which seems to me, here and in real B&M's it is the constant 'same' or 'opposite' due to wishful thinking and not what the shoe is producing.   

[ADulay]

Just for grins I ran that #5 against the VDW play.

+14 Flat Betting.
+29 with a small Marty.

AD

[brokerny]

AD, only if it held up that way with every shoe, I wouldn't need to work ever again.

[ADulay]

Yes.  Those long streaks and runs of "1's" really push VDW along nicely.

AD

[alrelax]

I am sure there is misconception here about the word 'strong'.  Strong to me, means anything that is holding up.  Streaks or 1's.  Again, singles, doubles, 1's/3's or 1's/2's, are all 'strong'.  There are clear sections in the shoe as I showed.  If you can train your mind not to always want to follow the current pattern and knowing it will soon change, as it does with 9 out of every 10 or 19 out of 20/21 shoes, you will make $$$ at the table the majority of the times.  I and we, generally only play a few shoes for a session and within those few shoes, how often do you sit down to a continuing pattern the whole shoe??  Almost never.  Sorry, but I play a light wagering bet until I see something and then hit is hard for 4to 8 wagers.  A quick $5,000 to $20,000 is great.  I don't know, but my mind frame has changed over the years and I do win considerably more than I lose.

I am sure the verbiage, "those long streaks of 1's......" is being facetious, but you are most likely misunderstanding what I am trying to get across. 

[alrelax]

Yes.  Those long streaks and runs of "1's" really push VDW along nicely.

AD

Thinking back to the high school and early college days, Van Der Waals is remembered.  As far as baccarat, don't think he or his theories stick 100%, as none do.  And, that is the trick to prevail, ride the fence, hang on the fence, lean a bit tot he left and then to the right.  I am sure most or all of you will not even start to understand that statement. 

Compare that to this.  The town of Brevat in Cambodia.  Yes, the gambling town on the Cambodian/Viet border.  Right now and for the past few years they have the monopoly and the answer to the huge thirst for gambling for the Viet people.  They can't really gamble in any kind of modern style in Vietnam so Cambodia capitalize on solving the problem.  Now, the Viet government will temporarily legalize gambling in their own country so Brevat is supposed to fall.  Well, in reality it will not.  The Cambodian people are not that stupid nor are the Viet people.  The Viet government will not allow the common Viet citizen to enter their casinos they will build (a couple of them) unless they make so much money, which most do not.  Then you also have to remember, the creature of habit effect of where they have gambled for years.  As well there are many other factors including women and food, Cambodia tops Viet in all the 'accessory' categories so to say.  So some might picture this drama as clean as heads and tails, but it is not, not by far. 

Back to VDW.  I remember very clearly the totally random numbers generation work in school.  One thing I will not forget because I had a physical science teacher that used to yell, scream and break pencils while giving his daily instructions and displays.  Onward.  Dropping the stick with the sharp unbreakable sharp point.  Dropping it from the same exact height vertically to a perfect horizontal surface that would not flex or give.  Where is the stick going to land and come to its rest each time.  Cannot be accurately predicted 100% of the time.  No way, not by one or 3 or 10 people marking their answers down.  However, can there be trends, patterns, abnormalities that repeat themselves, sure there was.

So as far as VDW's statistical breakdowns, codes, two dimensions (I think it was called) and all those algorithms (yes all those worthless darn unintelligent algorithms), throw them all out the door, they won't do you a bit of good when you need a Natural 9 over a Natural 8 the other side produced, etc.   

Coin tosses, the same thing.

Baccarat, the same thing also.

And that my friend is the key.   

[alrelax]

I was accused of calling someone a fool on this board.  Not true at all.  I said the following:

Re: Baccarat Live Dealer using Lanky's model

« Reply #16 on: Today at 07:07:30 AM »

•ReplyReply


Go and wager every single hand as you so easily laid out. 

Will not prevail, can not and the person if he has the balls will lose them over the course of less shoes than you so proudly displayed. 

I am embarrassed and fear for anyone that risks his/her real life money (different than play money on the internet) with this impossible wishful thinking. 

Hard core reality. 

Disclosure:  All IMO and I might very well be wrong, but I highly doubt it and once again, 'fools are only fools when they do foolish things'.
************************************************************************************

I was referring to people that follow systems, mechanical methods and pre-set conceived betting patterns when playing baccarat.  They will not and cannot prevail, period. 

Once again, I did not call you a fool Baelog, I simply stated if someone wagers every hand, hand after hand, with any method or system (is what I was referring to) they will lose and thus, be a fool.  There is a saying out there; " 'fools are only fools when they do foolish things'.

Your models show you would theoretically be up huge units wagering every single hand for 11 or so shoes.  I say impossible.  I don't have any scientist or other source to cite except I know 110% it would never ever hold up in a real live casino.  No possible way. Even a straight flat betting would not hold up, it night for a shoe or two or three, but not when you start talking more than a couple or three shoes.  I have play thousands and thousands of shoes and I have played for around 35 years or so, discount what I say and go to the bank, withdraw your money and bank on it, literally do it.   

[alrelax]

Lack of understanding;
Misunderstanding;
Temperament.

All play into a successful or unsuccessful session at a B&M Casino at each and every baccarat table there is.  Most will not think so, but oh so very prevalent, very much so. 

Keep up with all the thoughts of, 'this will continue' or 'this has to cut because of so and so', dangerous, real dangerous ways of thinking.

[alrelax]

Here is another one.  You can talk, read, write, bring notes and follow them, keep score and make all kinds of decisive and strategic plans on your score card or paper.  On and on.  You can discuss and record anything and everything at the bac table.  The casino does not care, they don't care, not one little bit. 

Try doing that at a black jack table.  Bring a pad and pen and keep track of all the cards, go ahead.  Talk to others about strategic plays and what cards have been out or not.  Make notes.  See what happens.

The casino does not care at baccarat.  There is a reason why.