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[alrelax]

I have talked to someone last night from the board and we got off of our business subject and started talking about the board here and threads, etc.  Seems much of the board has changed in the past few months and maybe I am wrong--but I think there is many more here thinking about playing or really new to baccarat.  Either way, baccarat--unlike other games in the casino, has quagmires and spurts of artificial wins and losses that are usually classified by the player as, 'just happened because I switched up from what I should have wagered' because of the game lacking decisions once the wagers are placed, unlike blackjack, poker and so on. Possibly there are numerous people on this board now looking to explore and enter into baccarat?  Well if there are, I will enlighten you as to thinking about it and the actual casino play.  Which is a heck of a lot different than on-line play. 

IMO, if you are plugging in a certain amount of wagers into your computer and running them against so many shoes and then attempting to analyze the data, I personally feel you are heading down a path of disaster when you finally get to the casino and use your 'computer proven' results.  Those will have no bearing and anything and everything can happen once you sit down at a table.  Basically what no computer can tell you is, what the lag or lull time will be in the shoes you will future play before your system will actually prevail.  Just because it prevailed in a test on your computer, how are those shoes going to be replicated in a random casino at a random time using different shuffling methods, etc.?

The problem with baccarat is a card or two prior to a section of cards can change the entire outcome of the un-dealt cards.  No cards will extremely favor the banker or player every time.  Sure in the long run you might have a higher or lower value of the first card favoring the player, but throughout the shoe--it really has no bearing on what is left to be dealt in the shoe.  And please, stop with the higher the 7's, 8's and 9's left in the shoe, favors the players side.  I have seen just as many 9's and 8's with 3's and 4's or 5's, etc., and Bankers get 6 or higher with their first 2 cards and win over the players.  It does not matter what is in the shoe or not in the shoe when placing your wagers.

You should really go buy a pack of poker chips and sit down in front of your computer and play against a screen dealing baccarat under free-play, something like on WWW.Wizardofodds.Com and click on free play.  Actually handle your chips with a legitimate buy-in you would do at the casino.  Or, buy 8 decks of cards and deal them also.  Play 30 to 40 shoes against the computer or your dealt cards.  See what happens.  How you can do playing every hand, how you do playing 50% or 25%, etc. 

I have pretty much preached on the board here about, 'following the shoe as to what it is producing'.  Sure, it will change it always does and those points I told you are called 'turning points' for the 'sections' you just experienced.  If you think you can profit by flat betting the same thing, the majority of the shoe, shoe after shoe, you are under the largest misnomer I could ever imagine.  Sure there will be lopsided shoes with an excess of 7 or 10 or even 15 points either way for the banker or the player.  But the highest majority of the shoes will be a lot closer but vary within its content, as to the swings each side will encounter through the shoe.  So, if the shoe is producing high volatility, chop-chop/alternating and some 1's and 2's, etc., probably the best thing to wager is the banker.  If the shoe is streaky and running, wager on the last winning hand.  The problem comes and it will, when you attempt to play for the cut and you want the shoe to stop doing what it is doing.  When the shoe is lopsided with a much stronger banker or player, you need to really look at the point difference.  This is where it gets trickier.  But seldom and I mean really seldom do shoes go over 20 points and keep climbing for the prevailing side.  Rare, extremely rare.  The other side will come back or at least come back with a greater than 50% gain from what it was behind, almost all the time. 

Many of the more experienced and long time players would really rather sit out when they rode the climb by the winning side and then it started to bounce back and forth and the lacking side is attempting to even out.  Not all of them, but I see that happening more often than not. 

Let me tell you about live play.  Just about everything in a casino happens in slow motion.  And I mean real slow motion unless you are playing at a mini table by yourself and there are no problems and no other people ever sitting down.  On a main floor in most casinos, this will probably be real hard to do.  In a high limit room at a reserved table you can.  But if you think people in the high limit room play every hand and play real fast, you have no experience whatsoever in actual casino play. 

So let me continue.  The losing hands will seem a heck of a lot worse because of the time it takes to take your wagers and pay out the winning ones, etc.  It takes time.  Then your winning wagers will not be paid fast enough and you will want to accelerate even faster onto the next hand so you can win more or recoup losses you are just starting to make up--or at least it seems slow.  There are actual delays throughout, other players continually buying-in with more funds, a question and calling the floor person over, coloring up chips, changing or checking chips, players waving their hands over their bets stalling the dealer as they try to think what they should do.  There are tons of them and a shoe can easily take 2 hours to complete depending on how many players there are at the table and all the problems and stalls and time it really does take.  The smarter players will not let that aggravate them, they use the time to relax, look around, re-group, think, etc., etc.  It is crowded, noisy, smoky and you just might have someone next to you that has not showered or brushed their teeth for days (or at least it seems so).  Tons of things to compound the aggravation factor if you allow it to.  The aforesaid will aggravate the highest majority of players that are losing or not well experienced players.  Even if you think it does not on a conscious level, it certainly does on a subconscious level after you been there a while.

If you think there is no mental strain on yourself playing baccarat, you are wrong.  There certainly is.  It just happens.  Maybe one of the doctor M.D.'s with their PHD's and post graduate level educations here can explain why.  I don't need the reason, I just know it does and I accept it.  I combat that with certain things that work for myself.  I might take a walk, I might get something to eat.  I might go to a private part of the casino and make some phone calls.  I might go watch TV, etc.  But mental fatigue is going to make you be virtually asleep while you are awake and attempting to think through the game and play it.  You will start making mistakes and your play will be irrational.  I seen it thousands of times.  Heck last week was a perfect example.  Here is what happened. The table was full and everyone was there from the afternoon and it was now around midnight.  These people I know and I know they were all aggravated and all stressed.  Super visible, in fact so visible you could cut it with a knife!  The shoe turned fantastic, sheer bliss.  Everything following each other, super strong.  Section of 5 to 7 bankers followed by 5 to 7 or 8 players and back and forth for half the shoe.  Then perfect chop/alternating.  Just about all of them lost so bad, it was horrible.  When you can't think, you can't realize--especially in this game.   

Nothing I told you is going to make you a guaranteed winner. No one can. Only those selling their so called 'systems' will claim they will and those are really only glorified 'presently non-jailed con people' anyway. But, what I told you here can and will make you a better gambler and just maybe you will have an edge and be alert enough to wager huge when those cards fall the way you want them to. 

Only you can make gambling a bit more fun and bit less aggravating, it will allow you to think better and wager clearer, that I promise you.   

[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

  But seldom and I mean really seldom do shoes go over 20 points and keep climbing for the prevailing side.  Rare, extremely rare.  The other side will come back or at least come back with a greater than 50% gain from what it was behind, almost all the time. 

Many of the more experienced and long time players would really rather sit out when they rode the climb by the winning side....

Dear Alrelax,
With respect.
(My English is poor, thus, apology if you have hard time trying to understand what I penned here.)

Regarding what you said, as in the (quoted above),
I humbly, wish, ask you, sir,

could you try to teach me, how would you play this game.
=====================

There are 50 pingpong balls, marked, as Player, and 50 pingpong balls, marked, as Banker, and are placed in a box.
where we can't see the balls...
Then a ball will be drawn, and cast aside, not replace back into the box...till all ball drawn, game over.
You may choose, to bet or not bet at all ,
meaning, not even play, a particular single game, as accordingly, to the casino rules.

Now, you COULD ONLY, bet,..only PLAYER,
or ONLY BANKER...
and,...please teach me..

1)how are you going to bet, to win, ONLY 1 UNIT, FLATBET.?
2)how are you going to bet, to win ,more than 1unit, FLATBET. preferably 5units?
Thanks in advance

[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

PS..
you may choose, when to play, or to start playing, or stop playing , and resume playing, just like you play baccarat, at table,
but , you could only play, one side,
either PLAYER,  or, BANKER only.
thanks...


.

[alrelax]

No idea, but it sound like a good game to watch, if there was a sexy female scantily dressed pulling the Ping-Pong balls, while drinking shots of Sambuca and eating a giant slice of Tiramisu cake!

[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

Quote from: alrelax on Today at 01:39:34 pm
  But seldom and I mean really seldom do shoes go over 20 points and keep climbing for the prevailing side.  Rare, extremely rare.  The other side will come back or at least come back with a greater than 50% gain from what it was behind, almost all the time. 

Many of the more experienced and long time players would really rather sit out when they rode the climb by the winning side...
unquote

I thought you say,

    Rare, extremely rare.  The other side will come back or at least come back with a greater than 50% gain from what it was behind, almost all the time. 
If the other side at least greater than 50%,
and you now say , NO IDEA!
Then I think better wash down your tiramisu with undiluted vodka.

[alrelax]

Quote from: alrelax on Today at 01:39:34 pm
  But seldom and I mean really seldom do shoes go over 20 points and keep climbing for the prevailing side.  Rare, extremely rare.  The other side will come back or at least come back with a greater than 50% gain from what it was behind, almost all the time. 

Many of the more experienced and long time players would really rather sit out when they rode the climb by the winning side...
unquote

I thought you say,

    Rare, extremely rare.  The other side will come back or at least come back with a greater than 50% gain from what it was behind, almost all the time. 
If the other side at least greater than 50%,
and you now say , NO IDEA!
Then I think better wash down your tiramisu with undiluted vodka.

Your example of whatever it was, was definitively marked balls.  Baccarat is not definitively anything.  If your game was real and existed, I would probably wait for the majority of one side to be exposed and then wager heavily on the opposite side to appear, since there was like you said, a definitive number 50 and 50 of each.  But, that example is not what happens in baccarat.  The upcoming/remaining hands do not have to be by 'definite' determination either one side or the other.

And, vodka is like medicine.  I only drink, Sambuca, Cognac, DiSaronno, Grand Marnier 150 or maybe Tia Maria.

[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

Thank you, sir, for your explaination,
that truly , an answer from a pro.
thanks again.

[Garfield]

With all respect Mr. Beat-The-Wheel, I am sure you fully understand that baccarat doesn't play like you described (or am I wrong??)

Maybe if the game really exist someone would come up with a system or idea or counting whatsoever to beat the game.

Funny, I've been away from this forum quite a time, and still in this bacc forum, IMHO half is trying to prove they know some way to "at least / at last" beat the game, and the half is doing just the opposite.

LoL

Myself, I like the way AL tells the game from his perspective. I enjoy read it unless when he and aces got into "cat fight". Haha...

I wish everyone the best!

[Lungyeh]

In this Easter period, it has dawned upon me that the key to success in Baccarat is to have peace. Whether you think money management, bet selection, discipline, humility, patience et al are the key(s) to success it boils down to peace and calm.

Think about it. 'Peace I leave with you. My peace I give you.'

I just had a very fruitful and rewarding 2 weeks in Marina Bay Sands with a new found peace and look forward to it continuing peacefully.

[alrelax]

In this Easter period, it has dawned upon me that the key to success in Baccarat is to have peace. Whether you think money management, bet selection, discipline, humility, patience et al are the key(s) to success it boils down to peace and calm.

Think about it. 'Peace I leave with you. My peace I give you.'

I just had a very fruitful and rewarding 2 weeks in Marina Bay Sands with a new found peace and look forward to it continuing peacefully.

That is correct and I attempted to touch on it with relationship analogizes in the latter part of my post above, 'aggravation', etc.  Yes, you are pretty correct.

[alrelax]

Funny, I've been away from this forum quite a time, and still in this bacc forum, IMHO half is trying to prove they know some way to "at least / at last" beat the game, and the half is doing just the opposite.


Myself, I like the way AL tells the game from his perspective. I enjoy read it unless when he and aces got into "cat fight". Haha...

************************************************************************************

To Answer:  "Funny, I've been away from this forum quite a time, and still in this bacc forum, IMHO half is trying to prove they know some way to "at least / at last" beat the game, and the half is doing just the opposite".

First part:  ANSWER:  Well, I can only assume that I took too much personal with some of the posting and acclaims that have been made on the board here in the past.  I am trying not to do that any longer, I actually cared about the board and its members--that is the only rationale and answer I can think of that I reacted at times the way I have.  Posters come on and they clearly do not have the experience or they are pumping/selling a system of some type themselves or through proxy.  I know the results of systems, so does Ted, so does Lungyeh, so do a few others.  Systems do not and cannot prevail.  As far as others, people come on this board and clearly are new or a bit of experience and they don't seem to ask, they cite and others are intrigued and possibly falling prey to what is being written which is plain 'bad' or 'wrong' as it is the results from a weekend, a few weeks, a tiny bit of on-line play, etc.  They put a hopeful twist on it for whatever reason (honest wishes--proxy selling--sock puppet reference--whatever) and the real core people here are subjected to what may seem like a path to a holy-grail or at least the best thing since sliced bread, etc.
************************************************************************************
To Answer:  "Myself, I like the way AL tells the game from his perspective. I enjoy read it unless when he and aces got into "cat fight". Haha...".

Second Part:  ANSWER: Well,  Thanks Garfield, we do go back.  I cannot and will not rehash all the bad times and everything that happened here on this board with several posters.  But posters/members do make or break a board.  I seen it happen to a great idea/vision by another gambler with another board.  It is not always the founder but it will rest with its core members, You-Ted-Leungyeh-Gizmo-The Magician-Asymbac-Doctor Sudoku-Sputnik-Mars Rocks-Leo-Adulay-Etc., etc., etc., et al.  Please if I didn't mention your name, that is no bearing if you are great, good or bad or we agree or not, I just want to make a point this board includes all the active posters. 

As far as those not posting, I don't know them, they read and they are there.  I will tell you that when I do not post or in the past, I have removed many of my posts through 'QUITTING', LOL, I have received PM's from a few (about 5 or 6 or 7) people with zero or one or 5 posts asking me if I am going to stay on or not.  The last round of stress over this board  was a while back with the continued and senseless and completely unwarranted and unintelligent (on my part too) with one poster and another 2 maybe 3 that decided to gang up and have a street battle.  Boy-do I know about those from NYC and turf wars, battles with police department Vice Detectives trying to make something of nothing or give undo pressure for something happening all over the city but let's mess with Glen, etc., etc.  Same poo-poo, different venue is all. 

But when the subject comes up about 'she said-he said' and you are wrong and I/We are right and you need to back down and apologize, etc., all that stuff is for the pre-teens and toddlers IMO.  As far as 21Aces, yeah-we squared off and I engaged in the 'catfight', I guess to a certain extent, but I did engage in many PM's with him and although I rather be more bland here in the explanation rather than detailed, 21Aces has his believe and convictions and most certainly his way of expressing his thoughts and thinking.  More graphic and stuff than most of ours with the pictures, but it's okay, whatever.  He is real and IMO he believes what he is writing and not a sock puppet or a troll. 21 Aces makes up the 'team' we have here.

The best analogy of what I can classify us as, is a football team.  We are a team and if all of us fight and spar and get too far off track, it will hurt the board.  If we all engage and become a level of troll and catfight about everything and anything and strictly turn towards personality and 'I am the aggressor and  will have to kick you in the rear' type of attitude, our team will fail and the board will suffer.  I have over the past years on this board as well as others, seen the same thing happen so many times.  I say what I want within reason and I don't go on other threads and topics to harass.  But, HOWEVER, I have engaged those that come on my 'turf' my threads and square off on me and I carry it far, real far.  Sorry, that is just the Italian, New York City, don't care and I can go to jail because jails are built for people, type of attitude if the police come. I guess I tried to combat that with the 'remove' button that is no longer on the board due to Vic removing it.  I found it was easier just to delete responses that were clearly spam, trolling, personal innuendoes, insults, etc.  It was said I was deleting responses that did not agree with my way of thinking or agenda, NOT TRUE, they were deleted for those reasons I just spelled out. 

So, thanks Garfield for the statement that started this longer explanation than I wanted to give, but I did. 

[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

Hi Garfield,
With respect,
I do understand baccarat ,

If we read the quote,

Quote from: alrelax on Today at 01:39:34 pm
  But seldom and I mean really seldom do shoes go over 20 points and keep climbing for the prevailing side.  Rare, extremely rare.  The other side will come back or at least come back with a greater than 50% gain from what it was behind, almost all the time.

Many of the more experienced and long time players would really rather sit out when they rode the climb by the winning side...
unquote.

According to Alrelax experience,
When an EXTREME NEGATIVE VARIANCE hit!
That +-20points, what will HAPPEN to the other SIDE?

Think HARD!
No! I am not saying the other side will produce a winner , [if flatbet,]

but something do happen....[RARE, extremely RARE.  The other side will come back or at least come BACK with a greater than 50% GAIN from what it was behind, almost ALL the time. ]
Alrelax understand what I meant to say.