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Topics - Mike

#1
General Discussion / The "No System" System
May 30, 2018, 03:56:32 PM
The "no system" system is the final attempt to get the better of the casino by those who have been there, done it, and tried many so-called "mechanical" systems which require you to stick to a rigid schedule of bets and/or money management.

Sooner or later, you're going to realize that no system will win consistently. The solution? Simple : abandon "mechanical" systems and just GUESS! make up your selections, patterns and progressions on the fly. Learn to "read randomness", cultivate your intuition, etc...

The problem is, this idea just doesn't work, and you're still deluding yourself. The solution is not to abandon "mechanical" systems and embrace "non-mechanical" ones, (whatever they actually are), but to learn why any kind of system based on patterns and progressions cannot work. In fact, the term "non-mechanical" is self-contradictory, because if you knew how and why a non-mechanical system worked, it would no longer be non-mechanical, but mechanical like all the others, and you could then use math or simulations to show that it didn't work.  On the other hand, if you DON'T know how or why your method is working, then you're just guessing, aren't you?

The comfort to be drawn from playing these guessing games (as opposed to applying a structured set of rules) is that they are apparently immune from the math (and the "mathboyz" critiques  :P). Gambler's who have "progressed" this far like to feel that they're more sophisticated than their colleagues who are still bumbling around with mechanical systems, and therefore ultimately doomed to fail. It's nonsense of course; the reasoning seems to be : "You can't win by using a system, therefore if I DON'T use a system I will win!".  ;D

They don't seem to realize that although they may be working very hard at guessing, in truth they're just betting randomly, and therefore they have no more chance of getting an edge by betting this way than someone who uses a rigid system mindlessly.

#2
General Discussion / Enough with the spamming!
August 14, 2017, 06:56:04 AM
Mods,

This is getting ridiculous. Can Stephen and his proxies (symon_lucky, john_stemart and others) not be banned by i.p.? The guy is clearly deranged and desperate as can be seen from this pm which he sent me today.

QuoteLimited Time Special Book Offer:

Receive an email copy of my latest book,

"The Ultimate Golden Secret Baccarat Winning Strategy 3.0" for just $25

(Book is on Amazon now for $90 min and that is a limited time Special offer because list price is $349) https://www.amazon.com/Ultimate-Golden-Baccarat-Winning-Strategy/dp/1973905019/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1502671711&sr=1-1&keywords=The+Ultimate+Golden+Secret+Baccarat+Winning+Strategy+3.0

Strategy has been PROVEN to work.

This member has written the following: http://betselection.cc/profile/?area=showposts;u=901

Member wrote:
August 11, 2017, 10:51:20 am

"For what it's worth, I've looked at 4 live casino shoes (Black Orchid) and Stephens system 3.0 won every one...I KNOW that's not an exhaustive amount of research..but I can't say the same for a lot of the systems I've tried...

For those on the bench about deciding whether or not to get the book, I DON'T think it's a rip-off...he claims to have tested over 10k live shoes to get his bet selection, and it seems to be valid, at least to my simple mind and limited observation...

Been around doing this a long time, (I use a system that lets me win every shoe or at least 99% of them...please don't ask me what it is because it's my main moneymaker and until I make my million will NOT even consider sharing it) but Stephens 3.0 looks to be what he says it is...I know he's had a rough time on this board, but I believe he's sincere and using his system himself..."

...........................

He will go on to make a lot of money and so could you.
Book is currently not available on kindle but when it will be the price will be a minimum of $90 for a long time.

Other people who have read my book email me all the time to say that they are winning using my strategy

To receive your copy Paypal me $25 stephentab@hotmail.co.uk and send me an email: stephentab@hotmail.co.uk with your Paypal transaction ID, stating: (Golden Secret 3.0) and I will email a copy to you.

As a bonus, if you buy within 7 days of receiving this message, I will send you a free copy of my Baccarat tie strategy book when it is published.

Please note, on my website the offer to others is $45 and no free tie book: http://casinobettingsystems.com/winning-baccarat-special-book-offer

By the way, I have no intention of buying his book, whether from Amazon at $349 or by paypal for $25, but if anyone who has it sends me a copy I will simulate the system and post the results on the forum. I will also give a FAIR review on amazon. It was actually my intention to buy a copy of the book but then all this nonsense started and frankly I have interest in doing so any longer.
#3
General Discussion / Sponsor?
July 19, 2017, 09:16:24 AM
How does one become a sponsor of the forum and how much does it cost?
#4
General Discussion / @System Gambler Re: Winkel's GUT
October 21, 2016, 08:11:39 AM
System Gambler, a perfectly reasonable question: Why do you think Winkel has not endorsed your tracker and pdf of his GUT system?
#6
General Discussion / Gambler's Conceit
November 06, 2014, 07:57:36 AM
quoted from wikipedia.

QuoteGambler's conceit is the fallacy described by behavioral economist David J. Ewing, where a gambler believes they will be able to stop a risky behavior while still engaging in it. This belief frequently operates during games of chance, such as casino games. The gambler believes they will be a net winner at the game, and thus able to avoid going broke by exerting the self-control necessary to stop playing while still ahead in winnings. This is often expressed as "I'll quit when I'm ahead."[1]

Quitting while ahead is unlikely though, since a gambler who is winning has little incentive to do so, and is in fact rewarded for continuing to do so by their winning. Once in the throes of a winning streak the individual may even become convinced that it is their skill, rather than blind chance, causing their winnings, or good luck on their side, and thus it seems especially senseless to stop while continuing to win.[2]

Apart from the psychological aspect, you are never really "quitting" if you plan to play again, because all random outcomes in casino games behave like an unbroken stream. In other words, it doesn't matter how many outcomes you skip, or where you enter or exit the stream, because the distribution is the same. And of course, the gambler forgets the times he never actually gets ahead, and has to break off with heavy losses.

The moral of the story is: quitting when ahead offers no advantage whatsoever.
#7
Off-topic / Forum software
June 22, 2014, 12:23:39 PM
The forum is very slow and jerky, sometimes when typing a post there are delays before the text appears. Then there are strange gray triangles which appear. See the attached.


[attach=1]
#8
General Discussion / Patterns And Progressions
May 03, 2014, 08:35:37 PM
Quote from: XXVV on May 02, 2014, 01:51:27 AM
The risk exposure in casino games  is known with fixed variables, unlike the financial markets. Yet there are winning strategies available in all these areas and there is always room for discussion of more.


Fixed variables. You said it XXVV, and that's why you can't win at games like Roulette and Baccarat, at least not with patterns and progressions. The odds for financial markets and sports betting are not set in stone so it is possible to get an edge, although I would pick sports over financials any day.


That's how I know Mr. iplayforaliving doesn't playforaliving, although he'd like others to believe he does. Not arrogance, simple mathematics and logic.



#9
General Discussion / Martin Blakey System
November 21, 2013, 05:37:16 PM
Has anyone read the book? XXVV mentioned the name in one of his threads.


http://www.roulettemastered.com/
#10
Even chance / How to get an edge flat-betting (in THEORY)
November 09, 2013, 01:19:34 PM
This analysis is based on a single-zero wheel flat betting on the even chances.


Suppose you were able to reduce the length of your losing runs -  how would your edge vary depending on the longest losing run? To put it another way, what should the length of the longest losing run be to ensure that you would make profit flat-betting?


The analysis assumes that there is no limit to the length of the winning runs. I wrote a program which generated even-chance outcomes and varied the length of the longest losing run from 10 to 1, and for each value I calculated the player's edge.


Here's the code:




program advantage;
var
   i: integer;


procedure get_advantage(maxL: integer);
const
  n = 100000000;
var
  i, Lrun, w, l: longint;
  Pw: real;
begin
  w:= 0; l:= 0;
  Lrun:= 0;
  randomize;
  for i:= 1 to n do begin
    if random(36) > 18 then begin
       Lrun:= 0;
       inc(w)
    end
    else begin
       inc(Lrun);
       if Lrun <= maxL then
          inc(l);
    end
  end;
  Pw:=  w/(w + l);
  write('Max losing run = ', maxL);
  writeln(', HA = ', (Pw*100 - 50):4:3)
end;


// main
begin
  for i:= 1 to 10 do
    get_advantage(i);
  readln
end.           


and here are the results:


Max losing run = 1, PA = 15.451
Max losing run = 2, PA = 5.357
Max losing run = 3, PA = 1.194
Max losing run = 4, PA = -0.764
Max losing run = 5, PA = -1.723
Max losing run = 6, PA = -2.229
Max losing run = 7, PA = -2.493
Max losing run = 8, PA = -2.627
Max losing run = 9, PA = -2.704
Max losing run = 10, PA = -2.736




For losing runs of length 10 (or more), the expected PA (player advantage) of approximately -2.7% applies. As you shorten the longest losing run, the PA increases, but it's not until you get to a max losing run of 3 that it becomes positive!


So, if you can find a way to get your maximum losing run down to 3, you will have an advantage of about 1.2%. Alternatively, you could try to recover all losing runs above 3 by some sort of progression (good luck with that).


It's quite surprising how many losses you need to eliminate in order to get an advantage.