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AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by AsymBacGuy on October 20, 2021, 10:29:28 pm »
Next weekend we'll see how to get the best of it by exploiting card distribution flaws.

as.
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AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by AsymBacGuy on October 20, 2021, 10:19:30 pm »
Hi KFB!!

Say we have a method that on average dictates to bet 15 times per shoe (playable shoe)
Even adopting a multilayered progression we need a substantial amount of winning situations and those cannot come out other than by crossing more two-card math advantaged situations than third card 'miracles'.
When it happens that our wins derive too much from such 'miracle' spots, we know that in the near future we'll pay dearly this 'privilege'.

Obviously a 'random' betting will get a balanced number of third card winning or losing spots disregarding the math advantaged side.
But a solid approach must get a slight superior number of math advantaged hands to succeed as it's way more likely to win starting as favorite than underdog.

Cards speaking we could summarise things in such way:

-When our method dictates to bet Player we just hope to get a 'standing' point (naturals and 7s and 6s), then a drawing hand with a superior two-card value than Banker, then a drawing hand crossing a 0, 1 or 2 Banker point (no asymmetrical hand). An exception of the asym B edge comes when P shows a 5 and B a 4.
Everything different from that is a long term losing proposition more often than not.

-When we bet Banker we need first a natural, then an asymmetrical hand, then a standing point. Everything different from that is a long term losing proposition more often than not (vig counts, sigh)

Since our plan must be adopted within range of hands and not single hands, we might add to our strategy a 'hand quality' feature.

This help us to stop or prolong a given patterns attack happening at a given shoe.

But more importantly is to understand that making a living at this game means to bet very few hands, accepting the temporary negative fluctuations without the urge to bet anything different than what we had devised.
Always knowing that unlikely stuff tends to come out clustered, especially if we got a sign after the first-intermediate portions of the shoe (as you correctly sayed KFB, imo).


After making some observations by following HS players bets, it's quite curious (yet confirming our theory) to have seen that WL result movements of each player rarely took a 'hopping' fashion: W and L streaks of any kind are more prevalent than WLW or LWL sequences.

So e.g. after placing four straight bets, each player seemed to have got a lesser amount of 2/16 occurences (WLWL and LWLW) than expected.
Probably this fact is due as 99.9% of HS players prefer to adopt a 'trend following' strategy that it's less probable to produce 'hopping' situations than polarized spots at either way.

I know at least a couple of serious players trying to get advantage of such 'math unsound' feature.
No need to follow other players though (even if a large players pool will amplify this possible effect): try to follow patterns in the way you want and register how many times you'll get W or L streaks and WL hopping situations.

After all if you realize that by following trends you'll get a fair amount of WLW or LWL fair long spots, you'll start to increase your second bet after a loss.
It's like that the human mind 'road' loves to avoid 'alternative' spots for long.

as.   
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Slot Machines Forum / Re: High Tech Cheating of the Slot Machines
« Last post by Gundyr on October 20, 2021, 11:59:59 am »
You think right. Indeed, online casinos use a unique system of data encryption, which is very difficult to access. That helps to secure all transactions taking place on the platform and protect users from fraud. It also helps to protect the service from hacking. Slot machines cannot boast of such possibilities. I am not surprised that it was the Russians who managed to cheat them. I will not be surprised either if the Russians hack into the online casino system. Although the top casino slots, this is no threat because usually on such platforms is a system of protection as at the Pentagon.
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AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by KungFuBac on October 20, 2021, 05:38:09 am »
Hi AsymBacGuy and thx for your prompt reply. I will respond back in a couple days as I will need to review your last couple essays. I "think" I understand what you are saying, though Im not 100% clear on the application process in real time.

For example in the following paragraph (in part):

"...At B side, natural 2-card math advantaged spots will mix (or not) with a finite number of asymmetrical hands favoring the same Banker side, whenever the math edge goes right we'll get a long B streak.

But in both cases such scenarios must be considered as 'erasing' spots of the natural math 2-card propensity to get this or that.

That is that 1,2,3,4... levels of statistical propensity to get 2-card higher initial points must be assessed by disregarding actual results. ..."
[/b]

     I will review some of your posts just prior to this one  before I ask questions as u may have already elaborated on this ,
Thx kfb



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Baccarat Forum / Re: Why Do Casinos Have An Approx 14% Win Percentage At Bac
« Last post by KungFuBac on October 20, 2021, 05:23:58 am »
alrelax:
 "...I would have to say mostly because of unrealistic win goals and giving back winnings and the consistent chase of spending their own money to win back what they gave back..."
[/b]
     
     I agree alrelax/ especially the part  (win back what they gave back) as  it is bad enough to chase ones losses that occur at the front end, however, its even worse when one chases to get a win back.

Re: the question: Why Do Casinos Have An Approx 14.4% Win Percentage At Bac With a 1.2% H.E
     I would also guess that part of that higher than expected win % is due to the higher H.E. on the side bets(bonus wagers), although I would also guess the bonus wagers are only a fraction of the overall bet handle. So in all likelihood not the main contributor to the casinos' high win percentage. I have not seen any data on what % of overall wagers are bonus wagers.


Continued Success,

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AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by AsymBacGuy on October 20, 2021, 03:09:39 am »
Forget math issues, I'll try to simplify our strategical thoughts.

In our opinion easiest plan to put in action is by taking into account BR and byb roads as they are 'mutually exclusive' at 'finite' degrees, meaning that no matter how things are developing, the vast majority of the times they'll reach detectable values.

For example, a sequence as

BB
P
BB
P
BBBB
PP
B
P
B
PPP...

provides two patterns of four 1-2 sequences and at byb road the situation looks as:

bbbbb
rr
b
r
bb
rr
b
r...

A six 1-2 straight sequence.

This sequence is going to get a statistical advantage no matter when we'll decide to wager.

Now let's take a more intricated sequence as

BBB
PPPPPPP
B
PP
BB
P
BB
P
B
P
BB
P...

at byb road the sequence looks as

rr
b
rrr
bbbb
rr
bbbb
rr
bb...

Now we have a nine 1-2 straight sequence at BR and a two 1-2 sequence at byb.
In another way of considering results, first registration is affected by a very low degree of 'shifting' strenght (few 3s, many singles and doubles) and the byb presents just one single and all streaks of some lenght.

We know that an average card distribution tend to get opposite BR and BYB patterns unless long consecutive BP streaks come out and for sure itlr such streaks are affected by a mathematical and/or statistical 'bias'.

Take this very unlikely shoe's portion (yet it's a real shoe dealt at Encore casino, LV):

BBBBB
PPPP
BBBBBBBBBBBBB
PPP
BBBB
PP
BBB
PPPPPPP
BB
PPPPP
B

No one 1-2 patterns happened, just 10 consecutive streaks.

Byb looks as

rrr
b
rrr
b
rrrrrrrr
b
rr
b
rr
bb
r
b
r
bb
rr
b
rrr
b
r
b
r
b
rr
b...

From a 1-2 pattern point of view we got 1,1,11, 6,... situations. So in a way or another a kind of 'steady' situation to be exploited happened.

Now let's take a BR sequence not getting many 1-2 sequences:

BBBBBB
P
BBBB
P
BBB
P
BB
PPP
B
PPPP
BBB
P
BB...

At BR 1-2 sequences got 1,1,2,1,(-1) appearance (six 3+ streaks in twelve columns, not a likely scenario to happen)

Byb got:

bb
rr
bbb
r
bbbb
r
bbbb
rr
b
rr
bbb...

Now the 1-2 probability is 2,1,1,3.

Now let's compare the BR 1,1,2,1 (-1) sequence with the Byb 2,1, 1, 3 sequence.

Are there many BR patterns following for long the same positional Byb patterns when taking into account the simple 1-2 (single-double) plan?

Even in the worst scenarios they simply can't. And the main problem is about avoiding colliding events.

Consider this shoe's portion (just two singles and eight streaks):

BBB
P
BBBBBB
PP
BBBB
P
BB
PPPPP
BB
PPPPPPP

that is a 1,1,2  (single-double) pattern.

At byb road we'll get:

1, 6, 8.

If the game is random and hand by hand independently placed, 1s at BR (or vice versa) should be followed by 1s at BYB by a 25% probability (as superior than 1s spots take the remaining 75% part), but it's not the case.

More simply speaking, most of the times when 1-2 patterns tend to be silent for long at either BR or BYB roads, the other sequence will get plenty of valuable positive sequences up to the point that we can't be interested about the precise spot to wager at.

After all, it's very very very unlikely to get many contemporary positional 1s at both BR and BYB, we need to manually arrange cards in order to get that.

Even if 1s tend to unlikely take the same position at both roads, well 3+ streaks are not coming around so often and when they are they tend to show up clustered thus giving more room to 1-2 patterns.

as.
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AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by AsymBacGuy on October 19, 2021, 08:58:53 pm »
Hi KFB!

Bac results are mainly made by 50/50 math situations, the third card is just an 'interference' that will follow the same math expectations.
It's the third card that makes things confused or math shifted toward one side (for the rules).

If baccarat would be a mere higher 'two-initial' point proposition, the game wouldn't exist as too easily beatable.

Therefore there are two different levels to consider outcomes: one is the higher two-card point distribution and the other one is the actual results (distribution).
Of course we do not win nothing while betting the math advantaged 2-card side when the final result is opposite, nevertheless some math disadvantaged hands will come out at our favor but by a way lesser degree of appearance (not only itlr but even at short-intermediate runs).
So our plan must rely upon those math advantaged situations to succeed, at the same time giving a 'dynamic' value about those rarer spots disregarding math.
   

Cards can be shuffled by infinite ways, yet there are more likely statistical distributions happening along the way as each card has a different impact over the outcomes.
Hence 2-card initial points are following a more likely distribution made of some steps and cutoff points, naturally not happening at every shoe dealt.

Example.

Consider long streaks (say higher than 5) happening at either side.
Most of the times such streaks are neglecting a math advantage/disadvantage or acting within very restricted limits about their potential winning probability.
Think about one side getting a 6 or a 7 and the other one showing a natural and so on.
Or whenever a PPPP sequence will be prolonged (or formed) by an asymmetrical hand favoring B that went wrong so producing a PPPPP pattern.

At B side, natural 2-card math advantaged spots will mix (or not) with a finite number of asymmetrical hands favoring the same Banker side, whenever the math edge goes right we'll get a long B streak.

But in both cases such scenarios must be considered as 'erasing' spots of the natural math 2-card propensity to get this or that.

That is that 1,2,3,4... levels of statistical propensity to get 2-card higher initial points must be assessed by disregarding actual results.

I'll give you more examples later

as.
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Slot Machines Forum / Re: High Tech Cheating of the Slot Machines
« Last post by KungFuBac on October 19, 2021, 05:44:43 pm »
A fantastic read/thx for sharing alrelax.

Anydawana--"...How were things in online casinos? It seems that their system would be more challenging to hack.
..."

     Good thoughts Anydawana--as I didn't consider from that angle. Also makes one ponder if this Russia team had other schemes (hacking financial institutions, governments, corporations, bitcoin,online gambling sites, ...etc)
     

This reminds one of the old movie from the early 2000s :  "Catch Me If You Can" with Leonardo DeCaprio,T. Hanks. Even though you know the cat ultimately will win/should win. Still , occasionally in some  cat/mouse games you can't help but cheer for the mouse every once in awhile. Especially when no fatalities occurred, they werent scalping children or the elderly,...etc. Just my personal opinions as there may be more to this story.


"...a casino security expert named Darrin Hoke, who was then director of surveillance at L’Auberge du Lac Casino Resort in Lake Charles, Louisiana, took it upon himself to investigate the scope of the hacking operation..."
     A pat on the back to Mr. Hoke--without his expertise, work ethic, and determination this could have gone on for many more years or possibly until all these specific-type slot machines were retired.

I'm guessing these Russian gentleman are asking the U.S. to not send them back to their teammates in St Petersburg. Whom would likely greet them at the airport with an all-expense-paid  and one-way trip to Siberia(never to be seen or heard again) :)

If I was part of the group detained in the U.S. my negotiations with U.S. officials would be as follows:
A) I can work for you or against you,
B)Im just the worker Bee and most of the profits were sent back to the big hive in St Petersburg so I can't pay much in restitution (actually they probably stuck it in Bitcoin--"now I know why bitcoin is approaching an all time high") :) ,
C)Please give me a perpetual work visa in the US and never send me back to Russia.

     A good deal for both parties and they may actually prove to be good U.S. citizens:  1)Good work ethic so won't siphon from the welfare system, 2)Employable as they have a proven work history, 3)Disciplined and able to work as a team/follow rules, 4) Expertise with designing an efficient business model with a good ROI, (except for that one little dealio----it was illegal), 5)Trainable, and could be taught how to play Baccarat.



 ;)
Continued Success To All,

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Slot Machines Forum / Re: High Tech Cheating of the Slot Machines
« Last post by Anydawana on October 19, 2021, 02:48:11 pm »
Did this only happen with slot machines? How were things in online casinos? It seems that their system would be more challenging to hack.
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Baccarat Forum / Re: Why Do Casinos Have An Approx 14% Win Percentage At Bac
« Last post by alrelax on October 19, 2021, 07:42:13 am »
I would have to say mostly because of unrealistic win goals and giving back winnings and the consistent chase of spending their own money to win back what they gave back.
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