Author Topic: Why bac could be beatable itlr  (Read 86252 times)

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Offline AsymBacGuy

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Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #450 on: October 14, 2021, 07:31:53 am »
Hi Al, sorry I had to cancel my last post, too detailed for my colleagues taste....

I report the last part of it.


Baccarat players lose by a 5% degree for HE and the remaining 95% comes from bad betting attitude (playing too many hands, bad bet selection, improper fluctuations assessment, etc).

Betting toward a more likely scenario is a good idea when actual things seem to be restricted within 'more likely' ranges. Otherwise it's a very bad mistake as unlikely events tend to come out either clustered or very diluted.

Good plans work in the long run, therefore they can't be successful at every situation encountered.

The fact that it's very very difficult to win 3 or 4 shoes in a row means that things change in way or another, otherwise casinos would be out of business.

as.

Sorry again, hope you'll post your shoes very soon, thanks!

as


Next to edge sorting it's me

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)

Offline KungFuBac

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Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #451 on: October 14, 2021, 07:30:15 pm »
Hi AsymBacGuy

Im finding this thread informative /helpful.


ASB:

"...More generally speaking, any single baccarat shoe will present one or more 'jackpots' spots at various degrees, meaning that univocal patterns are going to show up for 'long' or at least one more time than the opposite situation.
So we must split a shoe into 'confusing' sections mixed by a fkng easy detectable world.  ..."


     This whole paragraph is worded very well.  I really like the following:
any single baccarat shoe will present one or more 'jackpots' spots at various degrees, meaning that univocal patterns are going to show up for 'long' or at least one more time than the opposite situation.
     
     I especially like  that thought  if the "jackpot event" and the likelihood that it (JE) presents one more time--

Im also of the opinion if the JE  presented for  the first time in the earlier stages (or early part of that particular subsection of the shoe),  versus latter stages , then the propensity to reappear is slightly greater.
Just an opinion as i haven't verified that across millions of shoes or sims. Although it seems we often see that previously observed formation or pattern beginning to show again and it simply runs out of time(or the shoe finishes with alot of ties,...etc.).


Continued Success To All,

"There are many large numbers smaller than one."

Offline AsymBacGuy

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Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #452 on: October 17, 2021, 08:48:23 pm »
Thanks KFB, again you've made good opinions.

About 'jackpots' (JE)

Differently to other games, baccarat presents an infinite variety of 'JE' where the 'starting event' of each class can come out or not, yet it's impossibile not to have at least a 'back to back' same result; sometimes an event will grow up to the 'jackpot' (all results are belonging to the same class or classes), other times a given event will be followed by a counter event several times, but even here we got a kind of 'hopping jackpot'.

Even though this seems an 'exoteric' way to consider things, everything derives by long samples considered by our old statistical tools that at baccarat work particularly well.

In fact jackpots can come out mainly when cards are so badly shuffled that 'incidental' events must come out in our favor despite of their unlikelihood.
No one math advantaged situation can last for long and for the entire lenght of the shoe, so even though we were to know which two initial cards are higher, we'll be destined to lose some hands.

Therefore and generally speaking, lesser is the number of hands wagered, higher will be the probability to profitably catch that 'bias' without the interference of variance.

More on that later

as. 
Next to edge sorting it's me

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)

Offline AsymBacGuy

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Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #453 on: October 18, 2021, 02:24:03 am »
We may safely consider the 'baccarat problem' into the average probability to get two-card higher initial points as this is, by far, the main math feature affecting the final results.

How many fkng times two-card higher initial points are presenting clustered or isolated?
Surely not following a mere 50/50 independent proposition, this being typical of roulette outcomes or every other independent proposition.

Unfortunately, most bac players think baccarat as a game of outcomes and not about situations.

In addition, most of the times  long profitable spots cannot come out clustered for long, unless those 'incidental' spots that are supposed to break a flow tend to prolong a trend.

Say that three hands went 'normally' at B side, meaning that math propensity acting at those 2-card initial points went as expected (for simplicity we consider both sym and asym hands).
Now the fourth hand was as:

B (3-2)
P (7-J)

Banker draws and wins by catching a 3.

Is this hand forecasting a possible long Banker streak?

No way.

The 'flow' was interrupted by a more likely math advantaged hand, thus we should interpret this hand as a kind of new 0-point 'trigger' even though it seemed to prolong a given univocal pattern.

Now you should ask about those 'long' B or P streaks happening along the way.

Most of the times such streaks are coming out by breaking math features (or following or not them at asym hands) as the probability to get long sequences of two-card higher points at the same side is really low.
The same about getting many asym hands coming out in a row or shortly sequenced.

Since singles and doubles are the more likely occurences at baccarat, it's like that 'streaky' rich shoes are neglecting a math propensity acting at various degrees.

That's why I strongly recommend to stop the pattern classification within 1s, 2s and 3s classes.

Test your shoes and register how many two-card higher initial points will happen at the same side and how is the 'incidental' strenght acting along any shoe.
Independently of the actual results.

as.
Next to edge sorting it's me

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)

Offline KungFuBac

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Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #454 on: October 19, 2021, 04:35:21 am »
Thx AsymBacGuy

Can you please clarify this last sentence in BOLD:

"...In addition, most of the times  long profitable spots cannot come out clustered for long, unless those 'incidental' spots that are supposed to break a flow tend to prolong a trend.

Say that three hands went 'normally' at B side, meaning that math propensity acting at those 2-card initial points went as expected (for simplicity we consider both sym and asym hands).
Now the fourth hand was as:

B (3-2)
P (7-J)

Banker draws and wins by catching a 3.

Is this hand forecasting a possible long Banker streak?

No way.

The 'flow' was interrupted by a more likely math advantaged hand, thus we should interpret this hand as a kind of new 0-point 'trigger' even though it seemed to prolong a given univocal pattern...."


Thx in advance,
"There are many large numbers smaller than one."

Offline AsymBacGuy

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Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #455 on: October 19, 2021, 08:58:53 pm »
Hi KFB!

Bac results are mainly made by 50/50 math situations, the third card is just an 'interference' that will follow the same math expectations.
It's the third card that makes things confused or math shifted toward one side (for the rules).

If baccarat would be a mere higher 'two-initial' point proposition, the game wouldn't exist as too easily beatable.

Therefore there are two different levels to consider outcomes: one is the higher two-card point distribution and the other one is the actual results (distribution).
Of course we do not win nothing while betting the math advantaged 2-card side when the final result is opposite, nevertheless some math disadvantaged hands will come out at our favor but by a way lesser degree of appearance (not only itlr but even at short-intermediate runs).
So our plan must rely upon those math advantaged situations to succeed, at the same time giving a 'dynamic' value about those rarer spots disregarding math.
   

Cards can be shuffled by infinite ways, yet there are more likely statistical distributions happening along the way as each card has a different impact over the outcomes.
Hence 2-card initial points are following a more likely distribution made of some steps and cutoff points, naturally not happening at every shoe dealt.

Example.

Consider long streaks (say higher than 5) happening at either side.
Most of the times such streaks are neglecting a math advantage/disadvantage or acting within very restricted limits about their potential winning probability.
Think about one side getting a 6 or a 7 and the other one showing a natural and so on.
Or whenever a PPPP sequence will be prolonged (or formed) by an asymmetrical hand favoring B that went wrong so producing a PPPPP pattern.

At B side, natural 2-card math advantaged spots will mix (or not) with a finite number of asymmetrical hands favoring the same Banker side, whenever the math edge goes right we'll get a long B streak.

But in both cases such scenarios must be considered as 'erasing' spots of the natural math 2-card propensity to get this or that.

That is that 1,2,3,4... levels of statistical propensity to get 2-card higher initial points must be assessed by disregarding actual results.

I'll give you more examples later

as.
Next to edge sorting it's me

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)

Offline AsymBacGuy

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Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #456 on: October 20, 2021, 03:09:39 am »
Forget math issues, I'll try to simplify our strategical thoughts.

In our opinion easiest plan to put in action is by taking into account BR and byb roads as they are 'mutually exclusive' at 'finite' degrees, meaning that no matter how things are developing, the vast majority of the times they'll reach detectable values.

For example, a sequence as

BB
P
BB
P
BBBB
PP
B
P
B
PPP...

provides two patterns of four 1-2 sequences and at byb road the situation looks as:

bbbbb
rr
b
r
bb
rr
b
r...

A six 1-2 straight sequence.

This sequence is going to get a statistical advantage no matter when we'll decide to wager.

Now let's take a more intricated sequence as

BBB
PPPPPPP
B
PP
BB
P
BB
P
B
P
BB
P...

at byb road the sequence looks as

rr
b
rrr
bbbb
rr
bbbb
rr
bb...

Now we have a nine 1-2 straight sequence at BR and a two 1-2 sequence at byb.
In another way of considering results, first registration is affected by a very low degree of 'shifting' strenght (few 3s, many singles and doubles) and the byb presents just one single and all streaks of some lenght.

We know that an average card distribution tend to get opposite BR and BYB patterns unless long consecutive BP streaks come out and for sure itlr such streaks are affected by a mathematical and/or statistical 'bias'.

Take this very unlikely shoe's portion (yet it's a real shoe dealt at Encore casino, LV):

BBBBB
PPPP
BBBBBBBBBBBBB
PPP
BBBB
PP
BBB
PPPPPPP
BB
PPPPP
B

No one 1-2 patterns happened, just 10 consecutive streaks.

Byb looks as

rrr
b
rrr
b
rrrrrrrr
b
rr
b
rr
bb
r
b
r
bb
rr
b
rrr
b
r
b
r
b
rr
b...

From a 1-2 pattern point of view we got 1,1,11, 6,... situations. So in a way or another a kind of 'steady' situation to be exploited happened.

Now let's take a BR sequence not getting many 1-2 sequences:

BBBBBB
P
BBBB
P
BBB
P
BB
PPP
B
PPPP
BBB
P
BB...

At BR 1-2 sequences got 1,1,2,1,(-1) appearance (six 3+ streaks in twelve columns, not a likely scenario to happen)

Byb got:

bb
rr
bbb
r
bbbb
r
bbbb
rr
b
rr
bbb...

Now the 1-2 probability is 2,1,1,3.

Now let's compare the BR 1,1,2,1 (-1) sequence with the Byb 2,1, 1, 3 sequence.

Are there many BR patterns following for long the same positional Byb patterns when taking into account the simple 1-2 (single-double) plan?

Even in the worst scenarios they simply can't. And the main problem is about avoiding colliding events.

Consider this shoe's portion (just two singles and eight streaks):

BBB
P
BBBBBB
PP
BBBB
P
BB
PPPPP
BB
PPPPPPP

that is a 1,1,2  (single-double) pattern.

At byb road we'll get:

1, 6, 8.

If the game is random and hand by hand independently placed, 1s at BR (or vice versa) should be followed by 1s at BYB by a 25% probability (as superior than 1s spots take the remaining 75% part), but it's not the case.

More simply speaking, most of the times when 1-2 patterns tend to be silent for long at either BR or BYB roads, the other sequence will get plenty of valuable positive sequences up to the point that we can't be interested about the precise spot to wager at.

After all, it's very very very unlikely to get many contemporary positional 1s at both BR and BYB, we need to manually arrange cards in order to get that.

Even if 1s tend to unlikely take the same position at both roads, well 3+ streaks are not coming around so often and when they are they tend to show up clustered thus giving more room to 1-2 patterns.

as.
Next to edge sorting it's me

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)

Offline KungFuBac

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Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #457 on: October 20, 2021, 05:38:09 am »
Hi AsymBacGuy and thx for your prompt reply. I will respond back in a couple days as I will need to review your last couple essays. I "think" I understand what you are saying, though Im not 100% clear on the application process in real time.

For example in the following paragraph (in part):

"...At B side, natural 2-card math advantaged spots will mix (or not) with a finite number of asymmetrical hands favoring the same Banker side, whenever the math edge goes right we'll get a long B streak.

But in both cases such scenarios must be considered as 'erasing' spots of the natural math 2-card propensity to get this or that.

That is that 1,2,3,4... levels of statistical propensity to get 2-card higher initial points must be assessed by disregarding actual results. ..."
[/b]

     I will review some of your posts just prior to this one  before I ask questions as u may have already elaborated on this ,
Thx kfb



"There are many large numbers smaller than one."

Offline AsymBacGuy

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Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #458 on: October 20, 2021, 10:19:30 pm »
Hi KFB!!

Say we have a method that on average dictates to bet 15 times per shoe (playable shoe)
Even adopting a multilayered progression we need a substantial amount of winning situations and those cannot come out other than by crossing more two-card math advantaged situations than third card 'miracles'.
When it happens that our wins derive too much from such 'miracle' spots, we know that in the near future we'll pay dearly this 'privilege'.

Obviously a 'random' betting will get a balanced number of third card winning or losing spots disregarding the math advantaged side.
But a solid approach must get a slight superior number of math advantaged hands to succeed as it's way more likely to win starting as favorite than underdog.

Cards speaking we could summarise things in such way:

-When our method dictates to bet Player we just hope to get a 'standing' point (naturals and 7s and 6s), then a drawing hand with a superior two-card value than Banker, then a drawing hand crossing a 0, 1 or 2 Banker point (no asymmetrical hand). An exception of the asym B edge comes when P shows a 5 and B a 4.
Everything different from that is a long term losing proposition more often than not.

-When we bet Banker we need first a natural, then an asymmetrical hand, then a standing point. Everything different from that is a long term losing proposition more often than not (vig counts, sigh)

Since our plan must be adopted within range of hands and not single hands, we might add to our strategy a 'hand quality' feature.

This help us to stop or prolong a given patterns attack happening at a given shoe.

But more importantly is to understand that making a living at this game means to bet very few hands, accepting the temporary negative fluctuations without the urge to bet anything different than what we had devised.
Always knowing that unlikely stuff tends to come out clustered, especially if we got a sign after the first-intermediate portions of the shoe (as you correctly sayed KFB, imo).


After making some observations by following HS players bets, it's quite curious (yet confirming our theory) to have seen that WL result movements of each player rarely took a 'hopping' fashion: W and L streaks of any kind are more prevalent than WLW or LWL sequences.

So e.g. after placing four straight bets, each player seemed to have got a lesser amount of 2/16 occurences (WLWL and LWLW) than expected.
Probably this fact is due as 99.9% of HS players prefer to adopt a 'trend following' strategy that it's less probable to produce 'hopping' situations than polarized spots at either way.

I know at least a couple of serious players trying to get advantage of such 'math unsound' feature.
No need to follow other players though (even if a large players pool will amplify this possible effect): try to follow patterns in the way you want and register how many times you'll get W or L streaks and WL hopping situations.

After all if you realize that by following trends you'll get a fair amount of WLW or LWL fair long spots, you'll start to increase your second bet after a loss.
It's like that the human mind 'road' loves to avoid 'alternative' spots for long.

as.   
Next to edge sorting it's me

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)

Offline AsymBacGuy

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Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #459 on: October 20, 2021, 10:29:28 pm »
Next weekend we'll see how to get the best of it by exploiting card distribution flaws.

as.
Next to edge sorting it's me

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)