Author Topic: 147th Kentucky Derby 2021  (Read 1280 times)

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Offline KungFuBac

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147th Kentucky Derby 2021
« on: April 26, 2021, 05:16:01 pm »
147th Run For The Roses

WHEN: This year, the Kentucky Derby is on May 1. 2021 Kentucky Derby post time is set for 6:50 p.m.

Where: Churchhill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky.
Probability of Rain: The average high for May 1 is 73 degrees/a low of 53, with rainfall 0.71 inches. The 2018 Derby was the wettest ever recorded, and rain soaked the track again in 2019.

How Long Is Derby:  1 1/4 miles or 10 furlongs, the Kentucky Derby is almost always the longest race run by horses competing in it, which is considered the first leg of the Triple Crown. Secretariat's 1973 time of 1:59.40 remains the fastest.

Who Can Enter: The race is open to up to 20 3-year-old horses that have qualified through Churchill Downs' "Road to the Kentucky Derby" points system. This points system was first implemented for the 2013 running.

How Much Is Purse: The Kentucky Derby is still a $2 million race, with $1.4 million to the winner. Positions are paid out through fifth place.

When Is The KD Draw: "Entries are taken and post positions determined on the Tuesday of Kentucky Derby Week at 11 a.m. The process is random but does have a major effect on the outcome. The inside, No. 1 post is considered the worst possible draw. The No. 17 post is 0-for-38, the only one 1-20 to have not produced a winner.
Last year's winner, Authentic, broke from the No. 18 gate. The highest percentage of winners come from the fifth and 10th posts."

Horse Entries(Not post position):

2021 Kentucky Derby contenders, odds (Taken in part from an article posted 4/26 by CBS Sports Staff)

Horse   Odds

Essential Quality   5-2
Hot Rod Charlie   6-1
Medina Spirit   8-1
Rock Your World   8-1
Known Agenda   12-1
Highly Motivated   15-1
Mandaloun   15-1
Midnight Bourbon   15-1
Super Stock   20-1
Bourbonic   30-1
Dynamic One   30-1
Soup and Sandwich   30-1
Helium   50-1
Hidden Stash   50-1
Like the King   50-1
Sainthood   50-1
Dream Shake   N/A
O Besos   N/A
Get Her Number   N/A
____________________________________________________________________________

How do I wager on Derby day?

My modus operandi is to arrive early on Derby day to a nearby OTB sports book. I always allot  ten  $100 tickets with approx three of the $100 tickets reserved for only the Derby itself. I select approx six or seven races prior to the KD and wager approx $70 on a straight up ticket to Win, along with one Exotic @ $30 approx, and that includes my Win selection as part of it(I strive to not hedge my W horse).
Generally I watch the early races and then depart the OTB  book with sufficient time to get home so I can watch Derby from home.

A couple guidelines I try to implement when selecting my wagers:

a) I like horses to Win that are in the 5:2 odds range or (between 2:1 and 3:1).

b) I like to select my Win horse based on the one I feel is superior(even if it means not getting optimum odds and thus paying a little vig on that selection by not receiving optimum payout). Sometimes that may slightly violate rule (a). Sometimes I will simply choose to skip that race if I'm required to pay too much vig based on my assessment.

c) I like to search for atypical pool balances when selecting my Exotic wager.

d) I like to choose races where <= eight entries. (Obviously difficult on Derby and many other races on D day.

My 2021 picks as of 4/26 without knowing Post Postions:
Essential Quality, Rock Your World, Hot Rod Charlie

*If EQ stays at current 5/2, all other variable stay the same, then it will be my pick to Win.

**I am net negative on horse handicapping based on my past 13 years of record keeping. I typically only bet on days  for the Triple Crown races.

Ok lets hear it from all the horse handicappers.

Best of luck to all,kfb
 


Info written in part from a fine article published in the Louisville Courier Journal by Emma Austin. I did not verify or confirm the accuracy for any of the info above.  The Odds above extracted from a fine article published by CBS Sports Staff.
"There are many large numbers smaller than one."