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[Sputnik]

This is as close you can get towards reading the stock market movements using the even money bets, with a touch of Markow Chains.

The principle is that you deal with three existing states, 1 in 3.

You can play regular strategy use a static selection.
You can play for trending for domination, following different movements.

1) State one is when series chop after each other.
There has to be at least two series that chop after each other to be a valid state.

RRRBBB
BBRRRBBBRR

2) State two is when series of singles chop after each other.
There has to be at least two singles that chop after each other to be a valid state.

RBR
BRBRBBBRBRBR

3) State three is when you get one serie and one single alternating after each other.
There has to be no repeats and the series and singles outcome has to alternating once each.

BBBRBBBBRBB
RRRRBRRBRRRBRRR

I will try to illustrate this, so it become clear as water.
I will use comparison with dozen play that also is 1 in 3.

Lets begin with that the three dozen alternating and have one show each, like 123.
Now using even money bets and the three states, then it will look like this:

R
R
R
B
B
B State one, two series chop.
R
B
B
B State three, series and singles alternating.
R
B
R
B State two, serie of singles.

This is one advance opportunity to explore for trending for domination.
As you already know so can two dozen hit 5 10 15 20 25 30 times in a row when one dozen is at sleep with no appearance.
Its the same with this three states using even money bets.
The distribution based upon this observation is the same as dozen, 1 in 3.
Other options can be using static selections playing against dozen/states repeats based upon a defined algorithm/march ...

Personally so do i like the idea trending for domination.
This is how it looks like when only two states hit and one state is at sleep.
Flat betting with this example.




Well this is just the introduction towards something that can become very advance and complex.
There is many different possibility's to explore how to trending for domination.
It also exist various ways developing a algorithm/march to follow.

Here is one example how it looks like when you use a algorithm/march as static selection.
Flat betting.




One main idea is to see how often you can hit a positive tram using a few bets.

Its about how many attempts we need to hit or jump on-board a trend/domination.
What is the entering and exit points.

Lets say i am just allow to make three bets and if i don't hit a winning bet i have to quit that session.
That way you keep loses small.

So i want to jump on-board a trend/domination sequence with three bets.
Then i want to see how the success or hit ratio looks like with does Entering and Exit points.

I use +1 as a positive indication hitting a trend/domination sequence.
+0 can be break even point and where you restart or it can be a opportunity to continue to aim for +1.
Example -3 can define the end of the cycle you betting to hit a trend/domination sequence and is the beginning of the big hole or the negative expectation (NE).

I like this set up of rules, it's a clean way to check Entering and Exit points.
This is how a sample can look like:

+1
+1
+1
+1
+0
+1
+0
+1
+1
+0
+1
+1
+0
-3 NE
+0
-3 NE
+0
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+0
+0
+1
+1
+0
+1
+0
+1
+1
+1
+1
-3 NE
+1
+1
+1
-3 NE
-3 NE
+0
-3 NE
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+0
+0
-3 NE
+0
-3 NE
+1
+0

This way show that you can not get +1 unit to overcome that attempts doing so.
That is how simple the math & statistics is behind true flat betting.

It also show how, why and when you need to apply a humble progression or any other method to grind back does loses, when you hit (NE) negative expectation.
Or you just restart a new attack after three loses.

Optional is to test if domination/trending can compensate for the negative expectation.

Should also mention that +0 is the question if you will aim to break even or aim for +1 or -3.
That depends on your methodology, if you like to break even and restart or continue with current flow to win or fail.
Personally i regard break even as a win as you did not lose and still had a chance winning and you didn't lose trying.

So if i look at the opportunity to aim for and have a chance to catch a trend or domination, then the entering points using three attempts are overwhelming ...

+33 positive entering points
-6 negative expectation exit points

But if we see the units, based upon entering and exit alone, then its pretty even ...
So again my question is if trending and domination can compensate ?

+33
-27

There is variance toward this, less or more attempts depending on selection/cycle.
Break even methodology or continue until win or fail.

-
This is how i test the entering point towards domination, where two states hit frequently and one state is at sleep.

First i will illustrate this using dozen's.

If you have dozen 1 to hit then you follow dozen 1 to repeat.
If it fail you will have two dozen that show, for example dozen 1 and 2.
Then you play and follow dozen 1 and 2 for domination.
If it fail, then you have three alternating dozen's 123.

That is the entering point i test above using three states with even money distribution.

Lets say i have the alternating state RRRBRRR then after next change i would play for single.
RRRBRRRB now i want the current state to repeat and bet R.
Lets assume i lose and get two series to chop, then i have two current states, RRRBRRRBBB.
Now i would follow does two current state to continue after next change.


Differeint staking methodology.

I should mention that you can bet once for each event or you can bet for each trail.
Lets say i follow series to chop, then each serie is one event and i bet once for each event or for each trail.

Bet for each event.

R
R
B
B W Bet once
R
R W Bet once
R
B
B W Bet once

+3

Bet for each trail.

R
R W
B L
B W
R L
R W
R W
B L
B W

+2

There is other entering points and i will mention does as this topic grow.

[Sputnik]

-
This is how it can look like when you combine a march for trending for domination.
Today's file from random org 2013 04 09 ... LWWWWWLWLLWWLWLWWLWLLWWWWWWWWW ...

2
1
2
2
1
1 L PLAY FOR ONE REPEAT OF PREVIOS STATE
2
2 W PLAY FOR ONE REPEAT OF PREVIOS TWO STATES
2
1
1 W CONTINUE DOMINATION
2
2 W CONTINUE DOMINATION
1
1 W CONTINUE DOMINATION
1
1
1
2
2 W CONTINUE DOMINATION
1
2 L RESTART AND OBSERVE CURRENT STATE
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1 W PLAY FOR ONE REPEAT OF PREVIOS TWO STATES
1
2
1 L RESTART AND OBSERVE CURRENT STATE
1
2
1 L
1 W PLAY FOR ONE REPEAT OF PREVIOS TWO STATES
1
2
2 W CONTINUES DOMINATION
2
2
1
2 L RESTART AND OBSERVE CURRENT STATE
1
2
2
2
2
1
1 W PLAY FOR ONE REPEAT OF PREVIOS TWO STATES
2
1 L RESTART AND OBSERVE CURRENT STATE
1
1
1
2
2 W PLAY FOR ONE REPEAT OF PREVIOS TWO STATES
1
1 W CONTINUES DOMINATION
1
2
1 L RESTART AND OBSERVE CURRENT STATE
1
1
2
2 W PLAY FOR ONE REPEAT OF PREVIOS TWO STATES
1
2 L RESTART AND OBSERVE CURRENT STATE
2
2
1
2 L
2 W PLAY FOR ONE REPEAT OF PREVIOS TWO STATES
2
2
2
1
1 W CONTINUES DOMINATION
2
2 W CONTINUES DOMINATION
2
1
1 W CONTINUES DOMINATION
2
2 W CONTINUES DOMINATION
2
1
1 W CONTINUES DOMINATION
2
2 W CONTINUES DOMINATION
1
1 W CONTINUES DOMINATION
1
2
2 W CONTINUES DOMINATION
1
2
2
1
2
1
2
1
1
1
2
1
2
2
1
2
1
1
2
2
2

[Sputnik]

Gizmotron once show that you can capitalize on singles alternating with dozen play, domination.
123232121323123 and you play against doubles 112233223311 and it also work with even money bets based upon this methodology.

You can combine educated guess work with algorithms and get away with flat betting, as long you follow strict MM rules.

[Sputnik]

You can also play with or against the flow, you can also play with or against domination.
There is not limits towards how you apply a march or algorithm using this methodology.

Lets assume you would only like to play follow when series chop.
Then you would play against two dozen and aim for one.

In this case you would play against the two states where you have series and singles alternating and where singles chop.
That is the two states that create what gambler call a choppy table, erratic ...

To be exact you bet against the domination of the two states i mention.



ERRATIC TABLE or two states domination ...

[Sputnik]

Series vs singles is the same thing as red and black.
No matter length.

It does not matter if you get 100 reds in a row as it has the value 1 as on series.
And if you get one singles to show it also have the value of 1.

I am tired about silly comments.

[Sputnik]

 
Finally i find a working method with this methodology ...
D alambert look like a good option as staking plan ...
With this chart i just following the two most dominant dozens ...

In my opinion so is this the best and most superior way playing even money bets ... if you can rap your head around what kind of march to apply ...
The highest bet placed during 300 trails was 5 units, that is pretty good.

[Sputnik]

 
-

With this one i got a draw-down at 7 units and still looking good ,,, have to ask ND how to apply MM to this animal ...
And the secound chart i was down 6 units at most ... maybe i should develop a trigger and not play non-stop ...
-

[Gizmotron]

Interesting work you've done here.

The secret is in finding moments when the bet selection method works and avoiding making bets when they don't. It all boils down to watching for the more consistent conditions. If you have that then you have optimal opportunity.

[Priyanka]

Hey Sputnik

Very difficult to understand. But I think I am slowly getting a hang of it. I tried using a combination of Brett Morton's positive progression and JP's up and pull method and it is working like a charm. The session went like this.

BBBBRRRBRRBRRRRRRBRRBRBR
It was confusing until I started rewriting my tracking like below.
- - . - . - . - . . . .     

A line represents a series and a dot represents a single. I could also write it as MMSMSMSMSSSS where M is multiple (series) and S is single.

What I did next was do exactly as you said.
M
M
S - Bet was it will be a series. Lost
M
S - Bet was it will be a single. Won
M - Bet was it will be a series. Won
S - Bet was it will be a single. Won
M - Bet it will be a series. Won
S - Bet it will be a single. Won
S - Bet it will be a series. Lost
S
S - Bet it will be a single. Won.

This is just a sample. So far I have tested close to 40 live spin sessions from Wiesbaden. Holding up nicely Thanks!

[spike]

Interesting work you've done here.

The secret is in finding moments when the bet selection method works and avoiding making bets when they don't. It all boils down to watching for the more consistent conditions.

I don't know what this means, please elaborate, give examples.

Thanks.  [smiley]aes/angel.png[/smiley]

[Big EZ]

Every time I read this topic and think I understand what's going I just confuse myself more.

Could you (or someone who understands) play this short 60hand sample out so I can try and get a better idea, it would be a great help.



Gizmo,
Have you found any conditions that prove to be more useful then others?

[Big EZ]

60 hand sample...


2
1
1
1
2
2
1
1
1
1
2
1
2
2
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
2
1
2
1
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
1
2
1
1
1
2
1
2
2
1
1
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
2

[Sputnik]

2
1
1
1 State 1
2
2 State 2
1
1
1
1 State 2
2
1
2 State 3
2
1
1 State 2
2
2
2
2
2
2 State 2
1
1 State 2
2
1
2
1
2 State 3
2
1
1 State 2
1
1
1
1
2
2 State 2
2
1
2
1 State 3

RBBB or RRRBRRR state 1
RRRBB state 2
RBRB state 3

2
1
1
1
2
2 L
1
1 W
1
1
2
1 L
2 L
2
1
1 W
2
2 W
2
2
2
2
1
1 W
2
1 L
2 W
1
2
2
1
1 W
1
1
1
1
2
2 W
2
1
2 L
1 W
1
1
2
1 L
2 W
2
1
1 W
2
2 W
2
1
1 W
1
1
1
1
2
Here above can you see after two loses LL that only two state hits and continue hitting.
Series that chop and singles that alternate.