Author Topic: Follow the frog  (Read 8402 times)

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Offline Leapyfrog

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Follow the frog
« on: October 02, 2014, 12:07:54 pm »
For someone who is looking a bit more than numbers, please see here. Disclaimer - This is all written by a novice punter who has just started showing interest in this space. I will write as and when i like (not being rude, but just setting the expectations around managing my time :))


Bangor 2nd October - Going Good
For novices like me, it is a left handed fairly sharp track. Imagine a cirle and when the horses run anticlockwise in it, it is called left handed and it has sharp bends shaped like a triange rather than a circle. Jason Maguire and Richard johnson have done well in this circuit and the champion jockey Mccoy has has more wins but albeit lost a lot of short favourites making him the top loser in top jockeys. Donald McCain and Charlie Longsdon are the trainers to note. One looking for form should look for horses which has done well in Fontwell, Southwell, Kelso and Aintree. Front runners usually do well here.

Race favourites have a good P/L ratio in maidens here,  however when it comes to handicaps, outright favourites are a disaster. Joint favourites seem to do well in handicaps and 2nd favourites normally well in handicap hurdles.

Analysis paralysis
We start at 1420 Juvenile hurdles 2m1f. With four horses running there are two that stand out clearly. Final countdown and Starchitect. Final countdown has started hurdling now for a very successful yard. Starchitect was an expensive purchase and the trainer has a very good record in juvenile contests. With Jason on the saddle, it is fair to trust the favouritism.

Then we move on to 1450 Novice chase. Very small field of 3 horse. Market is speaking in favour of Gevrey Chambertin with him dropping significantly in classes. Very short price. But buck Magic is not disgraced either and trainer and jockey are on fire. Winter is their favourite month with chases, and my money is on buck magic.

Field gets bigger as we get to 3:25 handicaps. Interesting field with lots of changing hands. This is a favourite field for Tidal way having won the last two years but howeer with Noel Fehily both the times. Having a had a break to return to the favourite event he is partnering with Kielan Woods and I don't have a great feelign about it. I am eyeing Stonemadforspeed who has enjoyed a win 2 months back with McCoy albeit in a longer race. With John and Rhysflint combination eying this one entry in bangor travelling all the way from South wales, its worth a punt.

Moving on to the 4:00 handicaps, Kings grace has been in form and consistent for quite some time now, but Jason has not had lots of success riding it as Henry brooke did. But looking deep, Kings grace has a 4-4 result in Bangor which is incredible. Another flutter won earlier this month but in an easier field and doesn't make much of an appeal. The third on the field is very interesting. From a jockey trainer combination that is consistent in chases, consistent in bangor, it is interesting they bring this horse to bangor. With the kind of mark the horse is in I will be happy to put my money on it.


1630 is goig to be really unpredictable. Bonne fee is seemingly unbeatable even with triple penalty. Whatdoesthefox say has won in bangor earlier around similar mark but missed out twice since and should fall within reach. Another interesting entry is from John berry whose only entry in bangor few years back in Extreme conviction was a success who is a horse of similar rating. Russian link is no extreme conviction and historically his family owned horses have not shown much of a result. Sassanova is another one to look at. Fallen down the grades after soundly beaten in a bumper on debut, and charlie and tom pairing up, with the yards jumpers fairing well in novice hurdles, am going to back Sassanova.

Closing on National hunt flat race at 5:00 and i haven't yet got the grips on this type of race, so letting it pass, but will be watching it.


For the lazy ones
2:20 - Starchitect
2:50 - BuckMagic
3:25 - Stonemadforspeed
4:00 - Qoubilai
4:30 - Sassanova


Giant leap is formed of baby steps.

Offline esoito

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Re: Follow the frog
« Reply #1 on: October 02, 2014, 10:58:16 pm »
Crikey...are you really a novice?

That looked like a very professional and experienced wrap-up of the chances!  :nod:

Offline muggins

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Re: Follow the frog
« Reply #2 on: October 03, 2014, 09:52:58 am »
Crikey...are you really a novice?

That looked like a very professional and experienced wrap-up of the chances!  :nod:

Totally agree.  :thumbsup:

Offline Leapyfrog

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Re: Follow the frog
« Reply #3 on: October 03, 2014, 11:06:30 am »
Thanks for the comments friends. But unfortunately results don't seem to agree :)
Giant leap is formed of baby steps.

Offline Ehtelgaeb

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Re: Follow the frog
« Reply #4 on: October 03, 2014, 11:57:31 am »
Thanks for the comments friends. But unfortunately results don't seem to agree :)

I have some acquaintances (not really friends but people I've met) that actually play US horses for a living and they tell me the win rate is similar to poker.  In poker you play maybe 18% - 20% of the hands dealt but you expect to win better than 50% of the hands you play.  So you're winning like 9% of all hands dealt.  In horse racing you may play 50% to 75% of the races but your win rate is maybe 15% so you're winning like 7.5% to 11.25% of all races watched or handicapped.  And at 7% to 12% win rate, your win rate can still be statistically significant but you can still be losing money.  Horse racing is tough.

Offline Rolex-Watch

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Re: Follow the frog
« Reply #5 on: October 03, 2014, 08:26:31 pm »
  Horse racing is tough.
  Not so much down-under, as a lot of horse and dog races are fixed, you have to belong to a very close circle to get the inside knowledge.  I'm not but a friend of mine gets the nod occasionally.   

Offline Leapyfrog

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Re: Follow the frog
« Reply #6 on: October 06, 2014, 10:22:43 am »
Good day. For those interested in history, I am doing -3.01 from 5 races.


Windsor – Going Good to soft
Well, this is a race course where you have an 8 shaped track like Fontwell. Races normally happen on Mondays and it’s a flat track. I would highly recommend watching “Last orders” movie. Good watch. The course is still remembered for Richard Hughes winning 7 out of 8 races in a day October 2012. However the key stat that is of importance is that bookies hate this course. Yes, it has a high % of outright favourites winning with closer to 60%. So watch out for the market and the odds.

Starting the day at 1:50, it is hard to look beyond Oscars journey and Pharoh jake. Pharoh jake’s experience is going to see this through and it is going to be a close call. First rebellion has attracted a penalty and even with the experienced of the lot in Ms Nicholls at the saddle, it is going to be a difficult proposition. As an outside bet, i am pondering over Speedy Rio. With rain on the cards, it is going to be an entirely different surface frm what this 3yo has run earlier.


Following this is the 1420 Maiden stakes race. Rocky rider is a short favourite. However, Andrew balding is not having a great run recently following a recent death in family and Andrea Atzani not known to be good with 2yo. That takes me to the Richard hannon duo of Envisioning and Harbour patrol. Price wise Envisioning appeals better to me, but track wise Harbour patrol sounds better. But am reserving Richard hughes for Tobacco road and wordismybond for later in the day.


Another maiden stakes. Favourite is David probert's Master apprentice. David Probert has a habbit of messing up with favourites in Windsor, and with some great new comers in line, i think this is another race for that mess-up to happen. While Dannyday is of obvious interest coming from Michael Stoute and Ryan moore combination, my money is on Firmament. Trainer is having a hot streak and is really good with 2yo. Ryan moore has preferred Dannyday and hence they had to settle Jimmy Fortune. But the horse reallly stayed well at yarmouth and a longer trip should suit.


For 1550, it is an interesting combination. Longest distance in Windsor, some big names. I would have preferred Placidia, but he has been declared a non-runner. Tobacco road hasnt performed well recently and might be down to the conditions. A winner back in this track in April, he has also found his feet in the Salisbury event last week with Richard hughes. Surely should be thereabouts again. Another interesting one is the favourite Norway cross. The horse just loves this condition, but has disappointed since the Pontefract win. Festival theatre is another notable horse in the race, but will be only watching it for now.


Then comes one of the races with some long odds at 1650 5f nursery. It is going to be a very close event. Equally fast, Field game, Ivors rebel are some notable entries. But the ground is deteriorting as I write this and I can see it raining heavily outside. The race is going to be the last but one in the course and the ground is going to deteriorate. Majestic hero makes good appeal on this grounds.


The rest am just going with the market favourites.

For the lazy ones,
1350 - Pharao Jake and Speedy Rio
1420 - Envisioning
1450 - Firmament
1520 - Dalgig
1550 - Tabacco road
1620 - Annas vision, Lady Brigid
1650 - Majestic Hero
1720 - Shamas Crown



Giant leap is formed of baby steps.

Offline Leapyfrog

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Re: Follow the frog
« Reply #7 on: October 08, 2014, 10:47:50 am »
I was pondering over a comment from muggins sometimes back. So decided not to post anything yesterday. And you know what, bang!








Anyway, as Muggins seems to be busy, I have decided to post some longshots. I am no good as muggins and have no history, so try it with caution and use these as indicators.

1:55 Navan - Aerialist, D and Js Child
14:00 Ludlow - Aristocracy, Guard of honour
14:20 Nottingham - Mutrakez - Place
2:25 Navan - Kano's Girl
14:50 - Nott - Flickas Boy
15:00 Ludlow - Make the most of now
15:20 Nott -     Alhamareer, Potetic license. Also Poetic License for place
15:25 Navan - Dancing Noretta - Place
15:30 Ludlow - Cash for Steel
15:55 Navan - Mohayeed
16:25 Nott - Shalimah, Paddy's motor bike - Place
16:30 Navan - Rocky beier
16:35 Ludlow - Sunblazer
16:55 Nott - Lord franklin
17:00 Navan - Bazaar
17:25 Nott - Character to place
17:30 Navan - Comtesse
18:00 Nott - Hallingham, Front line phantom, Automotive
Giant leap is formed of baby steps.

Offline klw

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Re: Follow the frog
« Reply #8 on: October 08, 2014, 07:06:09 pm »
Great results Leapy.

Offline Leapyfrog

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Re: Follow the frog
« Reply #9 on: October 09, 2014, 12:53:51 pm »
[smiley]aes/surprized.png[/smiley]Todays longshots in Ayr

5:40 - Pats Legacy
5:10 - Our boy Jack
4:10 - Chookies Lass
3:40 - Live dangerously
3:40 - Goinodaethat
2:40 - Classic flyer
2:40 - Agadoo to place
2:10 - Royal Regent, Go dan go to place

Wolverhampton
5:20 – Luna mission, The fairy
5:50 – Yard of Ale, Roadmap to place
6:20 – Colours of glory, Verchild lad
7:20 - Premio Loco
7:50 – Blue valentine
8:20 – Exclusive dancer to place
Giant leap is formed of baby steps.

Offline Leapyfrog

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Re: Follow the frog
« Reply #10 on: October 10, 2014, 09:19:53 am »
I hope Muggins comes back fast. Till that time, i will post some longshots for you to ponder.





Giant leap is formed of baby steps.

Offline Leapyfrog

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Re: Follow the frog
« Reply #11 on: October 10, 2014, 09:25:33 am »
It has been a week since i have started this topic. I thought i will give an update on where I stand as it is useful to take stock of things. For starters, it has been a really lucky week, but i stand disclaimed that this is mere luck and might not continue. Only time can tell.

Total recos - 58, Wins - 13, Level staking profit - 94.55 (without Betfair commission on Betfair SP)

For the detail oriented, please find below.


Giant leap is formed of baby steps.

Offline esoito

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Re: Follow the frog
« Reply #12 on: October 10, 2014, 11:20:02 pm »
Lucky? Always plays a part.

Clusters?  Wins and losses tend to come in clusters.

The important thing with longshots is how profits are running at 3, 6 and 12 month intervals.

Longshots and short-term profits are mutually exclusive.

So hang in there...

Offline peleus

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Re: Follow the frog
« Reply #13 on: October 11, 2014, 05:10:03 pm »
I guess this just need a lot of patience just to make a decent profit then.

Offline esoito

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Re: Follow the frog
« Reply #14 on: October 11, 2014, 11:55:38 pm »
Yes, Peleus.  :thumbsup:

Patience is an essential ingredient when playing longshots -- spiced with a touch of optimism, too!