Quote from: Jimske on December 19, 2015, 09:44:36 PM
Incredible!  Here's a guy who has testified that he makes about 15 bets per shoe on average and wins 54% of his bets.  Okay - let's take him at his word. 54% X 15 bets = W 8.1 and L 6.9 for total win of 1.2 bets per shoe less commission.  A win is a win.  Never knock a win.  I average about 50 bets a shoe with a 52.5% Win.  That comes out to 3 units a shoe less commission.  That's for over 8000 bets which I'm pretty sure that is more bets than the Gr8 one has made in the last two years.  For him that would be about 500 shoes.

Yes a win is a win. I wonder why have to bet 15 hands to win 1 unit? Why bet 50 hands to win 3 unit?

Based on my experience, the 1 unit win might be achieved in the beginning of the shoe. And 3 unit win might be achieved in the 23rd bet. Why not stop there?

I believed this all happened because of the human factor. We always want to achieve more. And for some, they prefer to stop after 15 bets, and for some after 50+ bets.

Bet 15 bets per shoe is different with bet 50 bets per shoe, eventhough the result is different. The stress rate is different. But no one is equal. One might have the strenght to overcome more stress than other.

Bet the way that suits you the best. I believe the "human factor/aspects" is rarely to be discussed. However we are all flesh and blood, not some artificial AI / BOT.

Nb. I believe this discussion is beginning to OOT.

My pick is Bet selection, MM, timing.

Just because I will never know whether the next shoe is the good one or the ugly one. At same point of the shoe, only if I have decided, the particular shoe was a good one, I tried to maximize the profit.

But the truth is, just when it seemed there's a light in end of road, it gone as quickly as it appeared.

Then it all come back to bet selection and MM.

Quote from: 21 Aces on December 16, 2015, 02:00:17 AM
I'm asking everyone - how many shoes they play in a typical session at a real casino?  I bet the number is very low.  I also bet that many are using a P&L driven stop point, a time driven stop point, an energy driven stop point, or a combination that has no correlation to game house edge or statistics.

I played around 7 - 8 shoes average. Yes it also depend on this circumstances :

1. Whether I have reached my target goal or not.
2. Whether my buy-in BR for that session was busted.
3. Whether I am exhausted or not.

For point no 3, IMHO there is no way we could match the casino. Because they work in shift.

Hello iplayforliving. It's been a while since you last shown up in this forum. FYI i am one of your member.   

Regarding NOR, all I could state that it could win, and it could lose.

What matter is whether you could end up profit or not int the end of the day/session/shoe.

Period.

Sorry to ask this, but where is it now?

Thanks for you Jim

First do the non-random event we're talking about is about a particular shoe or in general?

I believe one, or some shoe, could show a strong un-randomness event (i.e : one side dominant, a chop after streak, no streak more than 3 etc etc).

But, in a general, IMHO this is stil a random event. If one said that some approach could fit every shoe, every time it played, I believed it was a "temporary luck / coincidence"

Like I stated before, we would never know what kind of event we are going to face. It could be 1999 shoes of un-random event, then 234 shoes of pure random, and vice-versa, or somewhere between.

There is always 2 side of everything.

Hi all,

I have one question for all of you Baccarat player out there. In my experience, I learned that I made more wrong bet selection rather than the right ones. No matter what method / approach I used.

Is it because we read pattern? Gambler fallacy? Nemesis of our method? Or just unluck?

I was curious and tempted to try to play this game with an extreme random ways. Not see the board, not know what the last result. Just random bet selection in a random periode of time. But still with certain unit because I believed random unit base is not suit me.

So, I would like to hear opinion from you guys why this is hapenning. Hopefully some opinion could give me a helpful sight to play this game.

Thank you all,

I felt sorry for the lost. Been in that position. I believe many of the member also been in that situation. But I believe in the says "If there is a will, there will be a way".

For me, I wrote down some rules In my score card before hit the table. Eg "Never make a 3rb bet after 2 LIAR. Stop,observe/make virtual bet". I wrote it it in BOLD with a RED marker. But it also didn't work for the first time. It takes practice, patience, self control to obey what you wrote for yourself.

But I believe that one could "heal his self". IMHO, you just have to figure it out by yourself.

I am interested too!!!

What an interesting offer