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Messages - alrelax

Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 239
1
Wagering & Intricacies / Re: A Fantastic Shoe!!!!!!
« on: May 04, 2021, 05:58:50 am »
Hi Alrelax--thx for posting. We are looking forward to the play-by-play.
Did you continue playing after Section C? If so how did u wager? And if u did indeed wager Post-Sect C did u wager the same in (D) as u did in (C). Many thx.

I will post everything I need a few hours to write it and I will post as much play-by-play as I can recall which is most of it and what's unique about the shoe is there are definitive turning points that I can point out that we truly felt and that we were spot on numerous times and it reinforces a lot of what I have talked about in the past.


Cheers,kfb

2
Wagering & Intricacies / A Fantastic Shoe!!!!!!
« on: May 02, 2021, 07:09:58 pm »
Picture #1



Picture #2



Picture #3



Picture #4



Wanted to download the pictures real quick and I will get to writing out what happened in a couple of days.   I'll give you my notes, this was a super fantastic shoe classic everything but everything contradicted each other from section A to section B to section C andcto section D. The randomness was drastic but it was very predictable in many ways, if you kept an open mind frame which most players do not do because they base what they bet on what they have seen or what they have not seen. In other words they want the shoe to meet their expectations not the other way around.

Will post details later.

The easy cleanup was in Section C and then in D.  In Section D,  2 F7s and the group of 4 Ties that were 2 natural 9-9 ties, 1 three card 9-9 tie and a 2 card player 7 to 2 card 0 banker with a 3rd card flop of a 7 for a tie, the hand before the 4th F7.

3
Wagering & Intricacies / Re: Learn to Learn
« on: April 26, 2021, 08:56:56 am »
Hi Alrelax

re: your sentence  "...Except player will and does have a better chance to form more clumps and runs then Banker does..."

Can you give an example of what u mean by clumps. For example are you referencing outcomes such as : PPPbPPPbPPPP for a (10-2) P-dom clump?? or say: PPPPPPP b PPPPPPPP ,...etc where two long runs are back-to-back,   or are you referring to something else ?  None of the above?

Thx in advance

2s, 3s and 4s close together with single Bankers, maybe token double banker stuck in as well.  Could be longer than 4s, no restrictions on length, just telling you what I see most of the time. 

4
Wagering & Intricacies / Re: Another B&M Board
« on: April 26, 2021, 05:27:36 am »
I remember to this day from the Atlantic City days I had back in the late 80's and the 90s there was this one guy that would sit there and bet table Max of $10,000 on two wagers and one of them was after there was a streak of seven or eight of more on one side, then cut he would bet the very next one on the same side that the streak was, like my example shows.

Example, say there was a streak of 10 players and then it fell off to the bank, his table Max wager would be back on the player for the following hand. More so with the players than the bankers because some reason right after Banker streaks so many times the player tries to catch up a bit.

And I remember that to this very day and most of the time and I mean the highest majority of the time after streak, it is that way like I said especially with the player side.


5
Wagering & Intricacies / Another B&M Board
« on: April 25, 2021, 07:38:54 pm »
Another B&M Board:



3 F-7s:

Hand 12
Hand 39
Hand 61

After the 10 Players streak not a double Banker for some time. Almost everyone wagering heavy for that second Banker with all of the too often thought of, "it has to come out", being said out loud.

I got the picture of this at hand 74 and of the next seven hands out there were six more Naturals. Making the last eighteen hands having 14 Naturals as one of the ties was a natural eight versus a natural eight.


6
Wagering & Intricacies / Re: Another B&M Shoe With Low Ties NOTE
« on: April 25, 2021, 07:24:31 pm »
As well hand 10 was a Fortune 7 and I've said it many times, it's in my threads. I like the first 10 hands more than anything for the first Fortune 7.




7
Wagering & Intricacies / Another B&M Shoe With Low Ties NOTE
« on: April 25, 2021, 07:18:06 pm »
I love them 0123 ties when it's halfway through the shoe or even less, the consistency holds much more than it fades.  You're looking for a small section within a section. Whether it be chop-chop, ones and twos or a  streak for whatever and easily make money on anything if the consistency is the same!!!

Remember, you are not changing the shoe you are wagering with the presentments. You're never going to change them, no matter what your beliefs are.


8
True MONEY-MANAGEMENT is rarely practiced by most baccarat players.

I can only imagine because as the wins come in, they are fully under the belief that they will continue and they get into another frame of mine that turns to Greed, Recouping Past Losses and being thoroughly convinced that whatever they just won can easily be multiplied by 10 times, 20 times, 50 times, etc., etc.

Then when a few losses start their mind-frames change once again. And that is to get back the win money that they so "stupidly" allowed to slip away.

Each player is so proud of their extreme intelligence, their experience, their knowledge and what's more, their egos are huge and of course they set themselves in overdrive to not only get their lost win money back they allowed to slip away, but a substantial profit as well.

Then as a few more losses mount the frustration level, the pressure and the stress over their buyin and bankroll becomes overwhelming. Hence, a vicious and ugly session once again.

Wins and losses will happen. Read and believe anything you want on the Internet or industry published  items for sale that convince you otherwise, but losses and losing time or bad luck or whatever it's called will catch up with you .  If you want to believe otherwise stop reading and just go play and do what you can do. The only way to hold your wins is with a REAL and PLAYER advantaged money management method, such as the one I refined, tested, proven and use. Otherwise all everybody will do is wind up giving back their wins along with their buy-ins and or bankrolls.

People say that Money Management is 'up and pull' and 'progressions' or 'flat betting' or 'loss stops' and 'win stops' techniques, etc., etc. They are not, not on there on anyway, those are wagering techniques plain and simple. Money Management is a mechanical system that will enable you to hold, compound and continue to win additional money if your bet selection is correct. Money Management has nothing to do with what betting decision is made to wager, it has to do with the amount you wager and what you do with your wager win money.

What is my Money Management Method?

1)    Bankroll
         Buy-in

2)    Positive Progression

3)    1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd Set-Asides

4)    1 + 4 Side Parlay

5)    Sections & Turning Points

6)    Level & Plateau

7)    Value, Respect, Recognition

Reference #3: And here is how it works.

1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd With the Win Money

Here is the summation.

When I win, I take 1/3 of the win money and pocket it, cash it and will not in any way whatsoever use it.  I take another 1/3 of the win money and increase my Bankroll with it.  I take the remaining 1/3rd of the win money and keep it as a reserve if I lose my bankroll I am playing with and still desire to play longer.

You can do it with any amount of win.  Say you buy in with $600.00 and get up to $1,800.00.  Take $400 and pocket it.  Increase your Bankroll to $1,000.00 and put the other $400 in your pocket as a backup bankroll.

Say you won another $1,000.00.  Take $350.00 and make your bankroll $1,350.00.  Take another $350.00 and put it with the $400.00 and that makes $750.00 you can't touch.  Take the other $300.00 and put it with the reserve bankroll you have of $400 making it now $700.00.

For me, I get the piece of mind, that I always have another chance if I lose and still want to keep playing.  I have something from my win money already 'locked up' and cannot be touched.  I have a slightly bigger bankroll.  When I do these things, it stops me from playing the way I used to with win money, and seldom holding on to it when things turned ugly.

All I know for me and some others, compiling the win money into your bankroll sitting on the table, only makes it subjected to larger bets and being lost easier than it does without some kind of plan.

Do it with any amount of win money, adjust it for your own psychological well being.  To me and most I speak with, it is easier to walk away after winning, when you know you have really tried to win more and maybe one more shot or another round at a table after a meal or a break, etc.  Maybe you can win money and stack it up in front of you and value it properly, but for most players it makes them play a bit more recklessly and dangerously then when they initially sat down with XYZ bankroll.


Be Smart. Employ Control, Patience and Money Management Method.

"Believing it is coming",  "It is right around the corner" or "I will just keep trying", will drain you each and every time. I promise you it will, PROMISE.  Mark my words you might not want to admit it, but I'm completely spot-on about that one.

Baccarat is a 50-50 game, I don't care what anyone says on the Internet about odds, it's a 50/50 game. It is not hard to win. What is hard, is to keep the win money. What is also extremely hard is to keep winning. Why? Because that 50-50 chance moves into the casinos favor greater and greater with every hand you play.

And the longer you play the more you will lose, Win Money or your own Buy-in Money.  Unlike what almost everybody subscribes to, which is the longer you play the more you will win.

You will not beat the odds each and every time you sit at the table. You will not accomplish what every player believes they so easily can, so stop trying. But you can compound, hold and incorporate win money into your bank roll if you use my Money Management Method not one doubt about it, NOT ONE!!

9
Wagering & Intricacies / Re: Learn to Learn
« on: April 21, 2021, 08:25:54 pm »
Both sides have the same characteristics. Except player will and does have a better chance to form more clumps and runs then Banker does.

It's just like everything else in player and banker and side bets at the baccarat table, sometimes it happens and sometimes it does not. 

You're sitting there for a very limited amount of time and all of the math and all of the fallacies from hundreds of thousands of hands or hundreds of thousands of shoes, does not count for that one, two or three shoes you're sitting down for your session.

10
Wagering & Intricacies / Re: Learn to Learn
« on: April 21, 2021, 03:32:01 pm »
"You must learn to respond to what is actually factual and happening. And not to what you think or is in your beliefs",  and so on.

Leave out the beliefs, leave out the emotions, leave out thinking every wagering hand about your bank roll or your buy in money. You must!!!!

You cannot touch upon or interface with math at the table for the 15 or 25 or so hands for the 1, 2 or 3 shoes your wagering real money on, in real time attempting Progressive Wagers in order to actually take down some money.

You know in my opinion and that of many other experienced players, the most intelligent and profitable players have the best chance to capitalize on the game of baccarat using extreme control and being conscious of everything that we talk about.

There are lots of important items to learn, use and possess that will give you large advantages in baccarat. Like I said anyone can win and anyone can lose. How much you do of either one is totally up to you and it has a lot to do with many things especially Control and Consciousness at the table.

Just for example, control will allow you to capitalize on positive progressions when it is the right time as well as not getting sucked in and following worthless fallacies and destined losers amongst many other things at the tables.

11
Wagering & Intricacies / Re: Listen to the dealer sometimes
« on: April 21, 2021, 03:26:42 am »
Low Ties=Presentment Consistency.  I've written about it many times 0 1 2 3 ties equal presentment consistency. I mean it will continue within a section to be consistent in the type of winning hands and this is another great example in the beginning of the shoe.

Also you have player heavy in the beginning of the shoe at least some way to make money 7 to 10 times which are great for positive progressions.

Also player from hand 35 on, if it wasn't a natural for the player that won, the third card for the player brought the player up to a 7, 8 or9 just about every single time. And numerous tines in there, I would say at least five of them, was a Natural 9 Player over Banker Natural 8.

12
Wagering & Intricacies / Listen to the dealer sometimes
« on: April 20, 2021, 05:31:12 am »
Same dealer that gave us 3 Fortune 7s and 12 Bankers the other night, sat down and relieved dealer that started the shoe and he says, 'are you ready for at least 7 Banks with 3 Fortune 7s?'  And everyone said, SURE. Most of the people didn't believe it but he sure banged out almost what he said, he gave us 2 Fortune 7s with the 6 Bankers. I'll comment on it later,  need some sleep.





By the way, the shoe finished with making another single Banker followed by 6 Players followed by 6 Bankers and that finished the shoe.

13
Here is part of the question from a valued forum member:

B) Where do you anticipate B runs? within a typical shoe? IOW what catches your eye to start anticipating a B run so that u are on it earlier? Not necessarily huge streaks but im speaking of >=4 streaks.

C)re:transition points or sections ending and a new section beginning. I think I understand your teachings re: this occurs at approx ever 18-21 hands and agree with this increment. However, Im not real clear on how to determine the next section(or trend) has indeed started. Therefore , as I think u will agree, a huge difference if we can anticipate and possibly get on a 7ish streak of something at say spot 2 or 3 vs spot 4,...etc.

Please elaborate anywhere u can as I always value  your opinions.
e.g., What is your hierarchy when u have several hypotheses activated at same decision point(i.e., Pattern should continue based on current profile, however, that side also has a Panda 8 or 3c7,...etc and would suggest the opp side is preferable...etc)?? IOW what is your hierarchy of triggers 'generally" speaking such as A trumps B trumps C,,.etc.??

Okay, I will attempt some answers:

Baccarat shoes are all weak or a combination of weak and strong.  Seldom and extremely rare they would be strong for the whole shoe and sitting down when we did we ruled out that because it was not.  We all have different an defensive definitions of what weak and strong is in baccarat. I've talked about this many times in my writings on the Forum.

If you play chops you will lose on twos. If you play twos you will lose on chops. If you play 3s you will lose if it fails to make a 3rd, etc., etc. Ones, twos and threes all grouped closely together are extremely hard to capitalize on if you believe in anything else in baccarat and so on.

This particular shoe we sat down in Section B right at the end of the three doubles on hand 34, when It produced a Natural 9 Player over a Natural 8 Banker. We did note there were no F7s out as well.

We started wagering for a continuation of doubles. We lost as a natural came out  for Banker with the chop to hand 35. We did wager for a player on hand 36 and continued on hand 37. Then we switched to banker and also wagered for an F7 on hand 38 and it was beautiful. Player had a 9 and a 5 and Banker had a 6.  Player flops a 6 and Banker flops an Ace.  Banker F7, first one.

We figured a double was going to appear but we had the strong belief and we have observed and know from years of playing the highest majority of the times it does cut to the player right after the F7 appears. It did not. Then a 3rd Banker came out. We actually wagered for a player on that hand. Then we switched back to Banker for a 4th Banker win, but not with the belief what was going to happen happened.

Once it made the 4th Banker we were totally convinced it was going to run down and match the 5 players with two ties in the beginning of the shoe. Everyone else at the table wagered heavy on the player side. Then the 6th and 7th Banker came out. Then another F7 Banker on the 8th Banker hand and then a natural followed for the 9th Banker.  Then there was another F7 on the 10th Banker hand and then two more naturals on the 11th and 12th Banker wins.

We rode it and we used positive progression on the 5th and 6th Banker wins and then just pulled down the winnings on the rest of them and we lost the last one of course. All the while the entire table was wagering heavy on the players to appear and commenting how the players side has to come back and all kinds of other comments attempting to change the shoe. I've said it countless times before, capitalize on what is happening and do not attempt to change the shoe or include some type of mechanical scheduled wagering triggers to wager on.

Most of the non natural Banker win hands were three card eights and nines versus the players two card 6 or 7. Yes if you looked at the point value of the cards most of the time the players first two cards would have won and only a very limited amount of cards being flopped for the 3rd Banker card could have beaten the player which was the case here.

At the end of the Banker run it was Banker 27 vs Players 18. We actually did think the Player was going to catch up and equal out, but we were not really betting that way heavy. Most people were. Player made the next straight 4 with three Naturals with 2 of them being natural 9s over Banker natural 8s.

We wagered two times for Bankers on the first two players right after the banker run and then we switched to the players side. We won the third and fourth player wagers, so we lost one. The frustration started to set in as we did wager for the fifth player and then a natural for the banker came out.

We recognized quickly and regrouped, we decided to wager every hand until the end of the shoe for Banker. So there were 22 hands left and we won 11 plus another F7 on the banker side and we lost eight on the players side. Normally we would have just stopped after the 12 Banker run but we decided not too because we just sat down.

As far as your question about banker runs and what we look for, in this particular case I would say it was that 4th Banker win and there was only the 5 player and 2 tie mini run in the beginning of the shoe. As well there was a good-sized stretch of 1s and 2s with a couple of 3s. This is coupled with another fact that I've said many times on 0-1-2-3 ties after many hands are out and with a low amount of ties how the shoe holds and continues presenting what it has been presenting. This is pertaining to mini groups and clusters within each section as you will see is exactly what it did.  All of those things convinced us both to wager on the banker run continuing past that fourth one and stick with it. Heck all we would have lost was one wager if that did fizzle out because we would not have chased it and stayed on the bank for the bank to come back. But everyone else did on the player and stuck with the player almost no matter what.

The first section line was drawn just before the 3 bankers because it changed from the four chops. Plus it was a third Banker and it was the first time a third bank was made. The second section line was drawn just before the bank run at the time it made the 4th Banker.




If we were going to do a Section D at the casino we would have put it after 4 players and the 3 bankers after the 12 Bank Run, as I show you below but we did not do it that way.  I'm doing it here just for an example. And the reasoning would have been because it was fizzling out and going back to 1s, 2s and 3s rather than anything strong and you have to concentrate within a Section as it's happening and sometimes break down a section further into a mini Section or Clump and therefore playing what is being presented rather than attempting to change the shoe to what you want. Psychologically it helps.



Locations of Banker F7s



14
Alrelax's Blog / Perfect Music
« on: April 17, 2021, 02:37:21 pm »
Yeah, its old school but it is perfect music especially when played at the casinos:

Number 1 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FBUe_v6Mi70

Tied For Number 1 Also

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Kjgwjh4H7wg

Also Tied For Number 1

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9EcjWd-O4jI
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=AuJAiZsM7QM

Number 2 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4B_UYYPb-Gk

Number 3 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=a54R9zE_hJk

Number 4 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=B1HSvXanqIM

Number 5 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IeDMnyQzS88

Number 6 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PBJRD1VkxmI

Number 7 of all time!
Please listen yo the intro because it is so spot on of music
Close your eyes and listen to this

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=pzozUw1TlDw

Number 8 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=J5ebkj9x5Ko

Number 9 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=otCpCn0l4Wo

Number 10 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BHcYFxU4fMo

Number 11 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=egMWlD3fLJ8

Number 12 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=pA7V68w5hiA

Number 13 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6THjwqWJWO4

Number 14 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Js1BIvluSks

Number 15 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xBQsQoGodPY

Number 16 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=USh-cvBCLcw

Number 17 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5cDLZqe735k

Number 18 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ZXmjhRkPVFc

Number 19 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dsiFGp9LTA0
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=si8Zl3yO4-w

Number 20 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UF0lrzsnqLw

Number 21 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DGuViX8X0aE

Number 22 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=udkRI514KSI

Number 23 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UG3VcCAlUgE

Number 24 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vd91WRD3-Rc

Number 25 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TMiAQPABgHA&t=75s

Number 26 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UAKCR7kQMTQ

Number 27 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=V43fGInXiLE

Number 28 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mCG5ODy6YHY

Number 29 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wdcLe0yPxhM

Number 30 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=w019MzRosmk

Number 31 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CyVuYAHiZb8

Number 32 ofall all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Y7dGdrP3pms

Number 33 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nIFxuzOBL7M

Number 34 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Ic02W1bWeFU

Number 35 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Pe0zekec8OI

Number 36 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wPlV2dzXWCw

Number 37 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=d24XpO-Cn7E

Number 38 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=17lkdqoLt44

Number 39 of all time

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OeQ7huY9mEE

15
Baccarat Forum / Re: Baccarat, An Insider's Approach
« on: April 11, 2021, 08:47:45 pm »
Read this, posted it almost 4 years ago. If you can read it and digest it, you will see how many things I originally wrote that were copied elsewhere or taken out of context.


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