I see nothing much has changed on this forum.


All the scribbles on that chart reminds me of this guy.  I see him several of my local casinos.  Once I even wanted to give him a punch in the face because he was literally in my face every single time he gets a win.  He bets $10 and $15 dollars after rigorously analyzing his chart.  Occasionally he would hit two to three in a row and would rub it in everyone's face about how good his system is.  However, it's always a guarantee that he would get up the table mad and cursing at the dealer.

I snapped a photo of him a few days ago.  This time he's slightly bald with a lot of gray hairs.  Most likely from pulling it out when he's thinking.  During this session he would think really hard for about 10-15 minutes just to put a dollar on the Dragon bonus.  No boasting of course.

Quote from: Mike on July 14, 2017, 07:48:05 AM
Albalaha,

You criticise every system as being fallacious and urge us to focus on a money management system which is able to withstand the worst drawdowns. Perhaps you don't realize it but no staking scheme or manipulation of stakes can CREATE an edge. All progressions can do is amplify the edge you already have. If you have no edge, the result of using a progression will worse than if you had just flat bet.

Bet selection should take priority. It IS the name of this forum after all.

You are right Mike.  Bet selection is key.  I have never came across a betting system that has an edge.  I tried to overcome it with progression.  I play a subjective game for years and tried to come up with a mechanical system at the same time.  Several months ago, I thought I found one.  The progression didn't go very deep so I felt that I could live with it.  Still I wasn't comfortable using it.  After a few months of success, I finally saw how ugly it can get in the last two days of testing.  I still can tweak it to make it a winner but it just isn't practical standing next to a table to record the results for 8hrs just to play around 10-20 hands.

Quote from: 21 Aces on July 12, 2017, 03:34:32 AM
For those who have English as a second or third language, etc. remember how smart you are to be able to do that.  Maybe try the Google Translate application and see how it works.

You are right.  However, this is an English forum and requires decent English to communicate effectively.  Also, no one should insult those who can't but are trying their best.  A second language is not easy to learn.

你是對的。 然而，這是一個英文論壇，需要體面的英語才能有效溝通。 此外，沒有人應該侮辱那些不得不盡最大努力的人。 第二種語言不容易學習。

Quote from: 21 Aces on July 10, 2017, 07:27:22 AM
- Where I play there are so many tables that often there are not going to be players behind, etc.
- If the house is allowing it, I am all for bets below minimum.
- So much of the time the best of the best, many of which play very large, will mix with everyone and talk with most everyone so I take their humbleness as the lead on the way to act.  There are times where they will play high limit or play private, but often it is anywhere and everywhere.

There is a lot of tables here in my area too.  Often not enough people to play the hands you don't want to play.  You often see one or two person sitting down at a table while there is a crowd of 20 people at one table.  Then they will run over and annoy the few people at the table alone.  I used to have that happen.  I would get up and go to another table, just to have them follow you.  So while they are there, it takes 5 or more minutes with all the loud, smelly and annoying people.  When they go away, you are force to play practically every hand.  So you can't play well with or without them.

Back before the 2008 crisis, practically everyone had money.  Everyone would have at least 600-1K.  Most will have 2K-5K and you will have others with 10K-200K.  I am in the 2K-5K.  I've done 30K a few times when I was winning.  I am still in that range and I don't like playing in the high limits.  I rely on non-fixed progression so a high minimum will not work for me.  I don't know if it's luck or if those guys are extremely amazing.  I just don't know how they manage to play an entire shoe with just a few free hands.  Although, I no longer see them anymore.  I knew a few guys playing in the high range and now they are broke.  I know if I play my approach, I will lose even sooner than them.

Quote from: 21 Aces on July 09, 2017, 08:49:29 PM
I am staggered by the lack of players wanting to team up more formerly, but I haven't put too much effort on it.  If you have enough players getting together you can control or 'take over' tables without buy-in or bet minimums.

What do you mean by take control?  In my area, unless you pay to have a private table, there is no stop people from betting over your shoulder.  The most annoying ones are the ones that don't even have enough money to bet the minimum and they are there crowding up the place. 

Quote from: 21 Aces on July 09, 2017, 10:52:27 PM
For example, I am not big in the squeezing cards camp right now, but I can not stand when there is a player who is drawing that out forever.  Or yeah, definitely no dirty manners/ gross players.

I'm not a fan of squeezing cards either.  That annoyed the stuff out of me today.  Some dealers are very good and remember me and some get the idea after one or two hands when I tell them to open up all the cards all the way.  There are some unintelligent ones that have to ask hand after hand.  Then you have the stupid people betting less than me but fights over squeezing.  When I get really annoy, I tell them that it doesn't cost much for them to buy 8 decks of card and they can squeeze every single time.  You see a lot of stupid people ONLY bet on Dragon and Panda that still wants to squeeze the damn card even when a natural is already shown.  I can see you trying to tie up but they don't even have tie bet. 

Quote from: Mike on July 08, 2017, 08:13:58 AM
That's a fair point, and ad hominem attacks add nothing to the argument, but some don't take criticism of their IDEAS very well either, and accuse the critic of attacking THEM personally, and so the "debate" degenerates.

I agree

The good ol' days of playing this game is gone.  At least in my area.  I used to sit down and enjoy a few glass of cocktail, sometimes staying out for 15-20 hands without making a bet.  There was even a non-smoking room.  Very idiotic for someone to think just putting a non-smoking table sign at the table next to a smoking table will work.

Now it looks like a zoo.  Hardly anyone sits and food trays are all over the place.  While some of food smells good to eat, it's very unpleasant when you're trying to concentrate the game.  Then there's people smelling like they haven't shower in days.  Some smell like ointment, moth balls, urine and even poop.  You have people farting and burping without having the courtesy to walk away.  You also have the old annoying retire people that comes on the bus.  They act like kids.  There is not a single day that they don't fight.  Every time there is a long streak, a mob of them come and literally crush you at the table.  The pit boss had to stop the game for 15-20 to calm them down only to have them do it again.  It's hopeless to stop them. You can have your own private table, but you have to pay for it and the minimum that they make you play is outrageous.

For the longest time, the monkeys have caused me to lose.  I've tried online but it did not workout so I had to return to B&M once again.  I learn to deal with them.  Somehow today, everything managed to make me boil.  You have the usual monkeys following you everywhere, fighting and holding up the games.  You have the bad smell unintelligent dealers making all kinds of mistakes from dealing incorrectly, counting the points wrong, grabbing your money when you win and entering wrong results.  I had to take a 20 min break to cool myself down.  It's a little better on the weekends.  You have to working people come and just enough retiree to keep the game going.

Quote from: Mike on July 07, 2017, 07:44:35 AM
Why not start your own topic then, instead of whining about "idiotic topics"?

I think gamblers are beginning to realize that there are no winning systems for games like Roulette and Baccarat, and for poker, sports betting, forex trading etc where you CAN get a real edge, people are naturally reluctant to share their strategies, and who can blame them? Their hard-won edge would be eroded if many people knew how to achieve it.

How do you not know if people in the Roulette and Baccarat section are reluctant to share their strategies as well?  Can't blame them right? 

"Their hard-won edge would be eroded if many people knew how to achieve it."  --- Yes, that is exactly how it would happen.  New side bets like Dragons for Baccarat have done it in the past and more can be done.  Ed Thorpe did this exact for BJ card counting when he published his finding.


Dragon side bets ---  Some may disagree here regarding D7 side bets.  I just learned that this bet is different for some casinos.  In my area, you push if you bet banker.  Where my friend lives, the D7 side bets make no different.

Quote from: Albalaha on July 07, 2017, 01:13:03 AM
Gone are the days when we used to talk of innovations, new systems, their testings and all those stuff that made this place worth visiting. A few members are using the board as a garbage bin putting in all kind of weird unrelated stuff. Going the way gamblers glen went.

Include this one in the mix.

Quote from: ADulay on July 02, 2017, 10:41:35 PM
There is so much wrong with that statement that it hurts to even read it.

AD

Ditto

System on some of Alrelax's fake shoes.

Quote from: Mike on July 01, 2017, 10:19:00 AM
Very interesting interview, thanks for posting.

No, mathematicians are not always right, any more than anyone is always right. But for a system to have an edge, it must at least have an edge in theory.

I've posted these 5 shoes before and this attachment is how I play it.  While the outcome of this shoes proves nothing, I just want to point out how I am trying to overcome to prevail by using progressions.  This was an actual session that I played at a live casino.

I can see that by using this mechanical bet selection, it did not improve my win rate. The longest losing streak during this session was 8 in a row.  By playing multiple progressions at the same time and nesting my mechanical money management (Marty), I have reduces the losses to 5 in a row as shown by the 32 unit bet.  I don't put numbers on the score cards that I play but I did it here.  If you can see, it required me to use 32 units.  I know 32 units is frown upon especially considering that this session gave me only a win of 26 units.  I don't know about everyone but I much rather win 20-30 units consistently over winning a lot of 50-100 units and then losing several 500 unit sessions.  If I play about 2 or more shoes during this session, I could have won a little more.  If I want to reduce the number of losing streak, I just need to play the right column and ignore the left.  I also have a tweak that will not reduce the number of losses in a row but it will reduce the frequency of those long losses in a row.  At this point, I just can't use that tweak as it is just not practical in the live casinos where I play.  It may be practical elsewhere.

Quote from: Mike on July 01, 2017, 10:19:00 AM
Very interesting interview, thanks for posting.

No, mathematicians are not always right, any more than anyone is always right. But for a system to have an edge, it must at least have an edge in theory. Card counting was based on solid theory, but most systems are not. Instead, they're based on false assumptions, such as future outcomes being dependent on previous outcomes when the outcomes are actually independent (the innumerable roulette systems for instance), or that some patterns are morely likely than others (when they're not).

I personally don't think you need to have an edge to win.  I know in BJ card counting, you wait for the edge to bet large.  In Baccarat, you can overcome it with a progression if you can come up with a mechanical system that you know does not produce more than x amount of losses in a row.

I have a background in Electrical and I know my math is weak.  I don't want to believe in this or that so maybe the math jocks can help.  I think I'm not the only one to believe this because I read it somewhere in the forum.  If I'm correct, Baccarat is not equivalent to the flip of a coin as it depends on a certain card that favors the player and a certain card that favors banker.  Once used, the card is taken out of the shoe box, unlike a coin. 

The 2nd point may apply not only to Baccarat but even in coin flipping.  While coins may not have memory of what happened in the past,  is it correct to say the probability or perhaps statistically an event of 4 heads occur more frequent that 5 or 6? Let's say the probability of getting six 6 streak of heads in 50 hands is extremely low and statistically you see no more than 3 in a fairly large sample.  So would it give you an edge if you are approaching the 50th hand and it already show five of those streaks and you're betting against the 6th event not being a streak of 6?

Quote from: Bally6354 on July 01, 2017, 06:09:26 PM
That's actually a fair point. There are many instances where researchers/scientists have either lost funding or their job (or at least threatened with it) by opposing the mainstream consensus. Therefore it can be very hard for alternative views/ideas to get out into the mainstream. The herd mentality would suggest that the mainstream view is the most popular until eventually proven otherwise. At least Tabone is right in one aspect and that's that people should do their own research and not necessarily take someone else's word for gospel.

To quote Edgar Allan Poe  'Believe only halve of what you see and nothing that you hear'.

Very true.  Some mistake last over centuries before proven wrong.  Even Einstein is no exception.  I once tried to question of his theory while studying Modern Physics.  Before even getting a chance practically everyone refuse to even listen.

Even if the math was true, there are ways around it.  I'll give one small clue to my system.  For years, my approach has been subjective, both bet selection and money management.  That seemed like the only way to even give me a chance to winning something.  The problem with a subjective approach is human factor.  You don't always have patience, composure and often you have the greed involved.  I came up with a least a dozen mechanical systems but many failed almost immediately.  Like Mike said, try to tweak it where it fail and it will fail elsewhere.

I've gave up on mechanical systems for years but tried to force myself to work on one after a streak of losses.  This new system actually came by accident but I did have add a few tweak.  I believe there can be many systems that will work.  Let's say you have a system that you tested rigorously and for certain you know that it will never produce a losing streak of more than 7.  You can use the Marty scheme but most people don't like to go that deep into the progression.  To reduce that, you what after 3 virtual losses.  I've seen many people wait after 5 or 6 hands and consider at their virtual losses before betting against a streak or chop.  The only problem is the streak is capable of going well into the teens and even into the twenties.  So, this will only work if you know the ugly side of your system.

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