That's a great shoe to post Al. It's a bit of a humdinger IMO!

I am thinking from hand 26 and the recent B streak, that there is a bit of an indication for the chops, but no!

BB
PPP
BB
PP .... not a biggie if you can handle the 2's.

This is then leading into the P streaks up to hand 43 and again a bit of an indicator for chops and it delivers this time from hands 44 to 51 with 7/8 successful chop wins. Then another little streak on the B's followed by another run of chops. In it's own way, it's consistent (almost on a loop) and as long as you aren't rigid regarding the B's and P's which is a bit of a topical subject at the moment reading about, you can still do well in a shoe like the one above.

If anyone wants to read the Renzoni book for free, It's available at archive.org
All you need to do is register which is free and then type in Baccarat into the search engine and you will see quite a few of the more well known books available. It's the same site which runs the wayback machine which is pretty useful as well.

One of the best books on Baccarat I have read in there is Byron F Herbert's ''Power Baccarat 2''
There is a chapter in there on hit and run which is about how to keep your winnings and the mental aspect of playing Baccarat. I think that chapter is well worth a read.

cheers

It makes no sense to ignore the Player side, I just don't get that at all. How is someone going to take advantage of the 2's, a long chop or just a good old fashioned dominant P side. Where I play, they mostly follow Bank because there is a Banker bonus which ranges from 2k to about 20k where depending on how many consecutive Bankers you get, a bonus is triggered and then it goes up to a maximum of 12 and you win the jackpot. Just the fact that the casinos are actively encouraging it would make me think twice, lol.

We can probably all agree that because the B outcome is more likely than the P outcome, longer B events occur more frequently than longer P events, while shorter P events (especially 1s P) occur more frequently than shorter B events. But we also know that anything and everything can happen on any specific shoe that you are going to encounter and so to completely take out roughly 50% of the decisions is surely going to hinder your play, no?

Al, the last shoe you posted would be a decent one for me. Everyone probably reads things slightly differently and I narrowed it down to three sections which at least would have made it a profitable shoe for myself.

From hand 15 to hand 30 (excluding any ties which I don't get involved in)

BB
PP
BB
PP
BB
PP
BB
PP

That's a good run for the 2's in a continuous fashion and the upside of them is you are not having to take a couple of losses along the way.

Hand 31 to 43...

P
P
P
B
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P

I love attacking when there is a weak side of singles. The 1-2 neg progression is my go to here although I try to look out for when it morphs into more of chop outcomes as well.

Hand 46 to 56...

P
B
B
B
B
B
P
B
B
P
B

It switched over from dominant P's to dominant B's.

And so hands 15 through to 56 produced three very strong sections one after the other where anybody alert would have had little trouble to come out ahead.

Hello guys, doesn't time fly! It doesn't seem like nearly 10 years ago since I started writing this up.
Even after writing this up and reading it again and again, it still took me years to get out of old habits and rewire my gambling mentality. That's why I still read here to get a daily dose of reality from Alrelax, AsymBacGuy and KungFuBac. You can really only appreciate what some people write when you go through certain stages of your gambling journey and the theory (especially a lot of my theory) sounded great, to me at least but it's a bit of an eyeopener to see that it can all unravel so quickly right before your eyes at the tables if you don't really grasp what the most important elements are to be able to win. So kudos to the three guys mentioned above as well as Renzoni for a lot of honest, real life experiences shared.

 

I did come across this reply from Xander.

[attachimg=1]

On saying that and looking at the following table, it would seem better to wait for 3 numbers to appear 4 times and bet for one of them to hit for a 5th time if you were following the rules as outlined by Xander.

[attachimg=2]

I agree that it's a great little video which makes you think.
If let's say on average most people can only interpret random in their own head to between 25% to 50% of how it really manifests itself, then is it any wonder that most people fail miserably when trying to guess the outcomes. Years ago I used to rock up to the casino with a mate of mine and he would only ever dabble on the outside chances on roulette with a £5 stake. You know that I can honestly say that I can't really remember him winning more than a couple of times. So it's not like he lost in the long run. He kept losing in the short run because he sucked at predicting randomness.

This could explain why so many people like to play for the cut/chop as noted by several members here!

Sputnik makes a good point about youtube streamers. Some of these guys/girls have 30k+ followers and get 100+ comments in the replies section. Gone are the 'Gambler's Glen' days with a 100+ wise heads happy to discuss everything gambling related. The new kids on the block are a more tech happy social media crowd. YouTube/Twitch etc...

What's to stop BetSelection.cc having it's own youtube channel where a few of us could stream some live play. It would attract subscribers who would likely also check out the forum if pointed in the right direction. This is the kind of idea I had in mind when suggesting some type of revamp/reset for BetSelection.cc

Some people are happy to donate to a twitch stream for the entertainment value. Part of that could go to the upkeep of the site and the rest could be redistributed to the community as some type of prizes.

It maybe all sounds a bit fanciful but the old forum mode as we know it seems outdated and a few new ideas more in line with the times could breathe some live back in to the community.

Thanks for the reply Vic and I agree with what you say. Obviously whatever you decide should be in the best interests of your family and you personally. Should this vehicle prove not to be the one where your good intentions can be advanced, then at least take heart in the fact that you gave it your best shot, never judged anyone and provided a lot of entertainment and help for people.

best regards

Hello Vic,

The way I see it is that you need to get as much volume from as many different posters as possible and it will then drown out the indifference some people seem to have towards each other because it won't be as prominant and in your face. There are quite a few 'members' who log in here and have been around for a year/2 years+ and have never even made a post. How could they be encouraged to post?

Maybe the site needs a revamp to bring back some creativity. Personally speaking, I wouldn't really care if my 'blog' disappeared because well it was my own personal journey and me relaying my ideas, It isn't really going to help anybody win at the Casino because ultimately all the ideas failed. Maybe the site could be streamlined into just a few sections which might help more people to feel on a level footing and therefore contribute.

Anyway, those are just my initial thoughts.

cheers

You know, sometimes doing the complete opposite is not the worst way to research!

Thinking about how in the first 10 numbers, you will get on average 9 originals with 1 repeat, I was thinking where do the originals come from? Playing around with Ayk's tracker and based on my own experiences, a lot of numbers in close proximity (either numerical or wheel based) do tend to clump. So looking for these early originals, look for the 'paired' number.

1,2
3,4
5,6
7,8
9,10 etc...

So if 31 appears, play 32. If 9 appears, play 10. Gradually increase the stakes as more numbers appear for the bet.

First run produced the following...

[attachimg=1]

The biggest ever unit required on a group of numbers was 4. There were a few 100 unit drawdowns but a lot of plain sailing in-between.
I could be wrong because I never bothered to look in-depth to the Vaddis idea but was he not using some kind of 'pairs' idea.

Anyway, food for thought I suppose.

cheers

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on June 03, 2019, 11:48:05 PM

Final note

If a bac player have found betting lines capable to get a long term edge,  this edge will be quite limited hence susceptible to great fluctuations. That's why we should think about the large picture and not about the stupi.d single shoe we're playing at.

as.

Hello Asym, I was thinking about what you were saying regarding great fluctuations. I am sure many people would agree and think to themselves ''let's suppose you have a 1 or 2% edge similar to card counting in BJ, then surely the fluctuations would be similar.''

However the difference that I see is that in BJ, the dealer has the same chance to get the good hands as well. It's annoying to sit there for an hour, get a positive true count and then start laying out some decent bets only to see the dealer keep pipping your 19 with a 20 or getting a BJ against your 20. In Baccarat, the dealer doesn't get to come along for the ride if you are reading things well at any given moment in time. They (the Casino) have to take the losses and I see that as a huge difference between the two games.

cheers

So in essence and on average, you will get 6 repeats from only 18 numbers (50% of the wheel) in the first 24 spins. If nobody can win or find a way to win using these parameters, well then, it begs the question, doesn't it!

If you are going to follow this type of logic, then you can also say that after 24 numbers out, you will get on average 18 originals with 6 repeats.

You can add to that and on average the first 10 numbers out will only contain 1 repeat. Further to that and a lot of the time you will get the repeats coming from the first few numbers out.  (obvious really because they have more chances to repeat)

A quick snapshot from the first set of 24 numbers I pulled up.

[attachimg=1]

So 21 original numbers here with only 3 repeats.

The first 10 numbers were all originals with no repeats.

The repeats themselves (6, 25, 29) originally came out on spins 2, 6 and 8.

So nothing too surprising in that little lot.

What could anybody make from all of this?

I am not  so sure but getting all your ducks to line up in a row is not so easy with a load of different variables.