Author Topic: Guetting jump the Tram  (Read 1304 times)

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Offline Johno-Egalite

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Guetting jump the Tram
« on: May 13, 2019, 02:10:47 pm »
Charles Guetting was a French mathematician who apparently got rich at Monte Carlo.

We have kissed Martingale, Labouchere and D'Alembert goodbye.

Being a REAL mathematician, Guetting did his sums and concluded that if we're going to increment progressively, first we have to get some fire under our behind, and then keep burning.  But if the fire goes out, we've got enough wood to stay warm.

Here's how it works.

First off, digest the following table and then forget it:

First Level             =  1 unit
Second Level        =   1.5   /   2  /   3   units
Third Level           =    4    /   6   /   8    units
Fourth Level         =    10   /   15   /   20   units

This was Guetting's original master plan.

But what is 1.5 of a unit ?

Good question and you must have taken Greek literature at collegel if you're asking.
Ok, say you have beans and don't want to cut any in half...how do you get 1.5 of any value of beans ?
You start with 2 beans and make that your 1 unit value so 1.5 of 2 beans (one and a half of two) is three beans.  Got it ?
Basically we've doubled Guetting's original table values above to get playable and understandable numbers for us simple folk.

To simplify your calculator finger work, here's the resulting table in the logical uncut bean units:

First level =         2 units
Second level =   3  /   4 /   6  units
Third level =        8   /   12   /   16   units
Fourth Level =    20   /   30   /   40   units

We suggest you write this down in any way that you can associate with it and remember it at the real table.
If you smoke, write it on the back of your cigarette box.

If you don't smoke - pretend you do.
The levels might be considered as gears.

If you progress in Level 2 from 3 mph to 4 mph and then to 6 mph, you change gears up to Level 3 and go to 8 mph.... etc.

The mechanism:
This system is applied to even outside bets and we'll take red and black as our primary example.

The logic is as follows:

After TWO consecutive wins on one unit in any level - you go up to the next higher unit IN THAT LEVEL.  After the last unit in any level has won twice you go up one level to the first unit of that new level.

If you're betting a unit in any level for the first time and lose, you go back to jail and to the first unit in the previous level.
If you've won on one unit in any level the first time but lose on the second bet on that same unit - you repeat the bet starting again from that same unit since one win is cancelled by a loss of the same bet.

Let's give it a go.

Here's the table again:

First level =            2 unit
Second level =    3  /   4 /   6  units
Third level =         8   /   12   /   16   units
Fourth Level =    20   /   30   /   40   units

You place 2 chips on red.  If you win - good for you and bet 2 units again on red.
If you lose - bad for you AND START OVER AGAIN betting 2 units once more on red.
If you keep losing, keep betting two units. FOREVER.

This means if you lose 10 times in a row on red, you have only bet 2 chips every time and lost 20 units.  This is what makes the system affordable but wait till you add our 'Jump the Tram' variant.
Getting back to winning:

If you win on the first bet with 2 chips, you repeat it with 2 chips again because you repeat every unit bet of every level once it has won.

Here's a plausible sequence:  And here's the table again for your convenience:

First level =         2 unit
Second level =     3  /   4 /   6  units
Third level =         8   /   12   /   16   units
Fourth Level =    20   /   30   /   40   units
(first and only unit in level 1)
2 = win = gain 2
2 = win = gain 4

(next level - level 2 - unit 1)
3 = win = gain 7
3 = win = gain 10

(still level 2 - unit 2)
4 = win = gain 14
4 = win = gain 18

(still level 2 - unit 3)
6 = win = gain 24
6 = win = gain 30

You've now won in 8 consecutive spins and have gained 30 units.

Just to recap:

Every time you win with one unit, you repeat it once again, and if you win a second time proceed to the next unit in that level.  If you've completed all units in one level you go up to the first unit in the next new level and continue as before,
If we had been playing the standard 'Double or Die' suicide progression, (2,4,8 etc) we'd only have 2 x 8 = 16 chips because after every win we'd go back to starters with the initial bet of 2.

With Guetting, after 8 consecutive wins we have 30 units and this is the first interesting point on dear old Guetting's contribution to mankind. It get's even better since Guetting had an escape plan.

What do you do after a loss, or two losses ?  Or worse still - a series of losses ?
This is where the levels come into play.

Losing:

As already explained, if you lose on the first time on any unit, you go back to the first unit of the previous level. If in level 1 you stay on unit 1 all the time in case of repetitive losses.  If you lose on the second bet of a unit - then you start again from that same unit since one loss cancels out one win.

But if we continue to lose.....several times in a row.....
Here's the same series as before:
(first and only unit in level 1)
2 = win = gain 2
2 = win = gain 4

(next level - level 2 - unit 1)
3 = win = gain 7
3 = win = gain 10

(still level 2 - unit 2)
4 = win = gain 14
4 = win = gain 18

(still level 2 - unit 3)
6 = win = gain 24
6 = win = gain 30

and then on the ninth spin we get a losing streak.  On the ninth spin you should have betted: 8

Here's the table again:

First level =        2 unit
Second level =    3  /   4 /   6  units
Third level =      8   /   12   /   16   units
Fourth Level =  20   /   30   /   40   units

If you lose on the ninth bet then you've still got a gain of 22 units ( 30 - 8 =22).
What do we do now ?  We regress from the third level (8) back to the first unit in level nr. 2 and this is unit 3.

Here's the table again:
First level =         2 unit
Second level =     3  /   4 /   6  units
Third level =       8   /   12   /   16   units
Fourth Level =   20   /   30   /   40   units

If we lose again, this means we have 22 -3 = 19 and
we again regress to the first unit in the preceding and lower level.

In this case it's Level nr. 1 and the 2 unit bet.
If we continue to lose we continue to bet 2 units - ALL the time.
If for example we won 8 times in a row and then lost 9 times in a row, all we have gained is 5 units.  Was it worth it ?
Check these charts  and then you tell us if you think it was worth it:

Can it get better ?

If you add our fuzzy logic, it can.

Once again we modify this system, leaving it exactly as it is but after two losses on one colour we use our 'Jump the Tram' variant.

This means that if you start playing on red for example, and black decides to come out 25 times in a row, if you play the classical 'stick to my breeches' system, you're going to be 50 units down after 25 spins.
Better down 50 units than if we had used the Double or Die system (Martingale) where we'd be around 16.000 units down with no chance of redoubling after the 14th spin due to the table limit.

And exactly because of the long negative series it would be a pity not to jump on a better tram.
And this is what we do with the Guetting system.
So if we started on red, after two losses we jump onto black, and so on.

So basically the Guetting system remains the same as far as the levels, their units and the losing sequences just explained but you DON'T stick to the same colour and jump onto the other colour after two consecutive losses.
Go back to our charts and check out the last one.

Jump the Tram

If you've read the introductory section to this 'Roulette Systems' sector you will by now know of what we think of the classical 2,4,8 etc progressive doubling system.

We call this the Double or Die system but usually it's known as the Martingale.

This system is based on betting on one colour (or other outside bets) and when you lose you double -hence the 2,4,8,16 etc.
And although this system is pretty suicidal we're prepared to make a bet with you.
You and we start with 100 dollars.  We both play the Martingale (2,4,8,16 etc).
Our bet is that 8 times out of ten we will still be sitting at the table long after you have been wiped out.
Note: we said sitting at the table and nothing about how much we've won.

But if we're still sitting at the table and you aren't - this means we still have something left of our 100 dollars and you don't.  You're dead - we're alive.
How would we intend to undertake this miracle ?

We would use the Jump the Tram variant.  ...and here's how it works.
We can use any progression or regression system available and to our liking. And also any system at all based on betting on the main outside bets.

In the case of the classics 'Double or Die' system...2,4,8,16 we'd play exactly the same sequences and double up when needed BUT instead of sticking to the same colour or same odd or same low bet where we started on - we move it to the opposite equivalent after every two lost spins.

Example:
Say we're playing Red / Black.
If red was the last colour to come up, on our first bet we place 2 chips on red.
If we win - fine and start over again with 2 chips on red.
if we lose we place 4 chips on red.
If we lose again we place 8 chips on black
lose again 16 on black.
lose again 32 back on red
then 64 on red again
then 128 on black
then 256 on black

and then we shoot ourselves if we still haven't won.
Actually we usually stop at an affordable loss in this case perhaps 32 or feeling rich and stupid on 64.

We call this fuzzy logic only because we like this term so any real fuzzy mathematicians out there - give us a break.

Explanation:

If you've ever observed casino spins and noted them down, or better still used thousand of real spins printed out, you'll have noticed that 'things' happen in certain series of sequences and that it is much more occurring for one colour to come up 12 times in a row than the exact opposing colours to come up in pairs - six times in a row.

So in the above system, say we start with 2 chips on red but black decides to come up 15 times if we stayed on red as in the suicidal version of Double or Die, we would fry.

With fuzzy doubling or 'Jump the Tram' , on the first spin we lose, also on the second one, but on the third one we move over to the other colour - black - and win.

And we would stay there until 2 further consecutive losses.
The concept of fuzziness here is applied to the point that if one single colour - i.e- black should come up umpteen times, AND IT'S NOT THE COLOUR WE STARTED ON - then we're counteracting against this and escaping the trap of NOT remaining stuck on red - the losing colour - forever.

There are no guarantees that the opposite will not happen and that if we bet two on red and move on to black, that the wheel won't do the opposite same, six times in a row.

If you will insist on playing a progressive doubling system of the traditional sort, this is a better way.

How do we know ?

We've studied outcomes of hundreds of thousands of real spins from real roulette wheels and have tried this many times at the table.  And you can verify this yourself.

Either get some real spins printed out or go and clock a wheel and then observe the pattern.
One colour coming up many times happens very often, hence the series onto which you 'jump' on after the second loss and stay on until two further losses.

Pairs of the same colour coming up six or seven times in a row is rarer... but not impossible !


Basically, if you really try Guetting AND our 'Jump the Tram' variation you'll find that
it's a great system if you get lots of sequences of any outside bet ( colour in our examples).
And believe us - this happens.

If you've understood the Guetting system plus our 'Jump the Tram' variation
on outside(even odds) bet systems, then you can imagine what could happen if
you get a whole sequence of full repetitive series -
say, 6 blacks, 7 reds, 10 blacks, 1 red, 6 blacks, 3 reds, 10 blacks, 12 reds etc.
You'll be laughing all the way back to the hotel.

But bear in mind that any of these variations depend a lot on the sway of the wheel and that it could get pretty boring going up to being +10, then -1, then +5, then -8, then +12, and after two hours you're +1.

But if you thought that not throwing money away at the Roulette table was supposed to be exciting...well... we suggest you throw your money away  ... if it's excitement you want.

That's what keeps most losers going is the excitement.  The boredom and methodology factor is why most people don't play systems.

Every time we leave a Casino with even 1 unit plus after 6 hours of Roulette.... we consider ourselves winners.  And if you've ever left a Casino after only 1 hour minus 500 units....then perhaps you really should try a system or two.
Maths is great like that.  Once it's been proven that no method exists to do what you claim, it's not necessary to go through the details of your system to prove that it doesn't work.  You claim that it does something which can be proven impossible, therefore your claim is false. The details don't matter.  I use the names Junket, Junket King, Lugi, Mark Teruya, Rolex, Relex, Rolex Watch, Mark, Eaglite, JohnO & More depending on what day it is and whom I am attempting to be!