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[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

Hi Albalaha,

If what you say is true...

Then,

Your grail,

may win on the very first few bets,

or prolong up to thousands of spins???

And since in your own blog,
you say,

"3700spins",

is a ,  "proven",

spins length, that produces, all the bets,

EC, DZ, STREETS, etc, to almost RTM,

almost BREAKEVEN,

albeit the edge...

Then permit me to say, that,

I deduce,

your grail must certainly,

designed to bet,

up to 3700 spins, to win????

Then ,

[I think, many people here,

interested, to see your argument],

could you ,

at least, give a rough guideline,

how a ,

perceived-grail, should have???

Thanks.

[Albalaha]

I agree to disagree with you ...
1000 spin not equal to 100 SPINS  x10 sessions is not equal to 50 SPINS x20  sessions

http://betselection.cc/general-discussion/how-true-1072r1077-my-results/msg39643/#msg39643

to understand what is long run I prescribed a topic from my blog: http://albalaha.lefora.com/topic/19400636/Long-run-in-gambling#.VvUmQOJ97IU

anything below that may quite vary from each other so a particular 100x10 may be slightly different from a particular session of 1000 spins but in larger perspective it is close to equal due to variance if your are familiar with the term.

Understand the basics of randomness and probability before jumping into an argument with me.

[Albalaha]

Dear BTW,
           Your question regarding how to beat the game in all probabilities is a bit weird in itself. There are many instances where taking/accepting losses is only wise thing, you can do.
  However, if you want to win surpassing the worst, you need to have a strategy with these features:
1. It should not go insane in multiple losses coming one after another
2. It should not go too high in successive losses in a stretch as marty, labby or fibo does
3. You may need to play too long to get into plus or to leave at not too big loss.

We may make an alert, trigger, pause and resume methodology that can use a reverse filter to sort the worst of the worst moments off the game.
My extreme variance management i.e. pausing at 1.5 to 2x of Break even is just one among them.
Then, your MM has to be very mild and reasoned to sustain long bad stretches and to win at last. Forgetting extreme moments and avoiding dragging them to win just 1 unit is also very essential. We need to understand that each and every situation can not be possibly beaten even with million chips.

Learn to simulate your ideas or that of many kindergarten system writers as they can harm you more than you can imagine and your short sightedness or inability to simulate can confuse you too much.

[Albalaha]

Trying to conclude things sooner than later led to hasty progressions like Martingale, Fibonacci and Labouchere which fails on very face of them. Everybody knows that one can get even 25 successive losses in a row failing martingale till a few million chips. Same goes to Labouchere and Fibonacci in one large bad stretch or tricky times like 25 wins in 100 trials or anything of that nature.
                  That is why I ask everyone to discard the obvious failure systems at the very outset.

Hit and run doesn't work as you are still in a random world and it gives you no immunity. Do not fool yourself.

A long run progression can be assumed to be helpful if:
1. They pass through even 25 losses in succession without ever betting too high. This bad stretch can come anywhere, in the beginning, in the middle or the last stretch. Do not put them into your convenient places to prove your pathetic progressions as good one.

2. They pass through Very tricky wins like 25 wins in 100 trials in a variety of ways followed by a below average span that is followed by an average span as per the principal of RTM.

3. Do not presume or expect  "corrective" wins after too bad stretch.

4. Never say my betselection gives me any advantage by itself. It is the most idiotic statement I hear from a majority of members. If you can not simulate your betselection, get help of a programmer but stop rumour monger regarding any bet without knowing reality.


  I can make "acid test" sessions for any MM or you can make a few yourself keeping all of the above in mind.

[Albalaha]

If anybody has a long run progression that incorporates all the harsh moments and ability to win in long run where only house edge remains as a constraint, he is a sure shot winner. That is the soul of a mathematical HG.

[greenguy]

...a long run progression that incorporates all the harsh moments and ability to win in long run...

By " incorporates all the harsh moments and ability to win in long run" do you mean a progression that never loses and never busts? One that eventually and always moves into profit no matter what?

Or do you mean a progression that busts from time to time but shows an overall profit for the long run?

[Albalaha]

By " incorporates all the harsh moments and ability to win in long run" do you mean a progression that never loses and never busts? One that eventually and always moves into profit no matter what?

Or do you mean a progression that busts from time to time but shows an overall profit for the long run?

It can be either way. It should not go bust in the long run after playing say 1000-2000 sessions or even more. It should be capable to surpass the harshest ever possible patches of too bad losses.

[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

Gentlemen,

Since Baccarat's
"player/banker",
will,
or rather,
may,
near BREAKEVEN,
or RTM.

,Say,
after, 2000, to 3000bets,

to hit around 45%,
[depending on your unavoidable 'luck-factor']...

and a long streaky possibility too.

Then, I THINK,
bet 1u, for say, 1000bets,
if lose, then bet 2u, for 1000bets.
if still lose, then bet 4u for 1000bets.
Thus inevitably, the streaky will come, and with the ,
"at least 45%",
winning will be no problem...

Or if we try to bet, say,
45% of player hit/3000bets,
by applying BlueAngle style,
of MINIMUM EXPECTATION,

45% of player hit/3000bets,
MINIMUM EXPECTATION,=1350u.
BUT! expect the marthy to kicks in,
at the very last bet!
or,...

simply bet 123456...
1u for first 100bet.
2u for 2nd 100bets,'
3u for 3rd 100,
4u for 4th 100,
5u for 5th 100bet,
till win...

why so?
Since the chances for LONGGGG Baccarat=RTM...

Since I can't do simulation,
maybe some of you could try , and post the result.

What U think???

Thanks.

[Albalaha]

Increasing in this manner doesn't help. Did you see the fate of Blue Angel's system? It tanked even hundreds of thousands. Azim's tracker prove that as well. How do you come up with loser ideas again and again. Increasing in patches of 37 or 100 or 1000 won't help.

[Azim]

BEAT-THE -WHEEL,
Your idea will not work.
However,
Do you have baccarat results from reliable source? If you do, write me the rules and I will write you a tracker for it.

This way, everyone gets to see it for them self.

[Azim]

Hello dear Sumit,

When you talk about progression for long sessions, I can relate it to progression in the style of the "boom" technique for a single number; rising the base unit back and forth, consciously.

ie. after two missed tries player goes back to minimal unit while keeping track of current unit size. Later on right after a successful attack the player resumes further attacks back at the same tracked unit size level.

When dealing with measuring after those 200-some "short" sessions, -likewise- a boom-style money management for several numbers at a time (working cooperatively) can be worth a try.

With the added benefit of knowing there's a clear stop-loss "check-point", with no chasing.

I think,this is the same approach mentioned somewhere by GIZMOTRON, is it?

[Azim]

Absolutely.
            You won't find any such progression that can beat 405/1000 wins of an EC in all patterns they can appear.

What happens if you have the worst numbers and have a go at it after a count is at a certain level?

[Albalaha]

No offence meant but I never saw Gizmo writing anything that can ever be put to real play in any defined manner. Can you point to the topic where Gizmo mentioned this?

[Albalaha]

What happens if you have the worst numbers and have a go at it after a count is at a certain level?

Can you explain and illustrate as to what you mean?

[Azim]

It seems to me that the problem lies in the impossible task of measuring variance.  We can only guess at it and perhaps calculate the outer limits of SD.

Labby, Fib, Marty, etc. out?  Yes.  D'Alembert?  Not so fast.  Sorry to be a one horse show but this endeavor always brings me back to S. Bailey contemplating the flaw of D'Alembert and refining it to adjust to variance with various mechanical or semi-mechanical progressions.  A favorite of mine (and his) is -X, +X; Flat.  Whereby we go up 1 on a loss and if win stay at that level until a loss then go up 1 again.  Of course adjustments can be made to taste and not always have the same unit size for both sides.

Variance comes in as a matter of perception or SD if one could calculate risk of ruin for a win/loss "likely" sequence.  So how does one accomplish this to gain a net profit?

It's mostly guessing of course but there are limitations that one can count on.  Baccarat shoes:  I know that in the 5000 + shoes I've logged the lowest I've ever gone is a 32% hit rate within about 60 or 70 "spins" and that is rare.  The overwhelming majority of closed spin sessions are going to be between 47% and 53% I'd guess.

So when you begin to go south you got to increase but only to a point.  But when you go too far south you got to decrease.  At some point when a north trend begins you must increase.  Maybe incorporating rules such as Seth uses with "Turnaround" or his latest stuff to help soften the curve.  Half back, Cut back, dump and pump . . . ??  Big bankroll required.

This whole concept reminds me of "Price Cost Averaging" (not Dollar Cost Averaging) whereby algorithm used to buy as stocks drop and sell as they rise.  Works wonderfully for cyclical movements such as we are dealing with.

J

I think, when you reach a certain ratio you revert to minimum bet as mentioned by Victor.
Once you see the numbers getting favorable increase the bet size as mentioned.