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[Albalaha]

VIRTUAL BETTING: Does it help? Mathematically, No. Virtual betting doesn't change the odds of the game and no past decisions can hint about future decisions but if we believe in sequential probability, very long series of losses or wins are not so easy or frequent. However, they can come up any moment upto its virtual/estimated limit.

For example, getting a Win after 25 Losses is possible and it can happen any moment. However, getting 2 such stretches of 25 losses followed by a single W in succession is so remote, we can kind of take that as not probable. Theoretically, every spin is different and unique and any result is possible in a particular spin, we do not see 30 or more consecutive wins/losses of an EC ever.

Any sensible money management that tries to fight with randomness needs to take care of the virtual limits and the fact that they may come up any moment. Technically, in long run, we can think of winning where number of Wins are closer to the number of Losses. Regression towards mean is guaranteed to work in long run but it is not possible to pre determine when it starts to throw near equal Wins and Losses.

Virtual betting can help, in a way to avoid the worst possible scenarios to a certain extent.

I suggest betting only upto 150% of the break even point as wins over it is meaningless and won't help much in recoveries. While an EC is almost 90% certain to win within three attempts, a win over it may take in even 25 extra losses.

Take a case of this Horror session of an EC: LLLLLLLLWLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLWLLWLLLLLLLLLWLLWLLWLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLWLLWLWLLWWLLLWLWLWLLWLLWWWLWLWLWWLLWLWLW
THE SAME SESSION WILL LOOK LIKE THIS TO A VIRTUAL BETTING GUY.

LLL LLL LLW LLL LLWLWLLWWLLLWLWLWLLWLLWWWLWLWLWWLLWLWLW

More later......

[XXVV]

Now this is a very interesting and challenging topic Albalaha and good for you for featuring it. Look forward to reading what you have to share.

[BEAT-THE-WHEEL]

Hi Albalaha,
I think 'virtual betting'
only work, if we,
incorporate them,
after 'variance avoidance',
and with,
a 'virtual-limit-induced-progression' strategy.

But of course we lose out the opportunity for early win,
as,
this only work, when the quite-extreme,
or worst set to happen,
thus wasting early-come-opportunity,
and time...

But if time not a factor,
then this will be very interesting.

[Albalaha]

Virtual betting may work to curb the variance upto its virtual stretch if used with caution. To understand how it helps, you may read the last post of this topic of mine: http://betselection.cc/albalaha's-exclusive/if-roulette-has-no-memory-why-there-hasn't-been-succesive-36-hits-of-an-ec/

So virtual betting works best with these:
1. Chopping the virtual limit of the variance, even if an EC doesn't hit for 50 spins in succession, somehow, we will lose max 3 bets;

2. One has to understand the sequential probability

3. One has to understand the law of large numbers and Regression towards Mean.

Downside: There is only one downside of this type of pausing and virtual betting. If a win comes at the 4th spot i.e. immediately when we pause betting, it causes a bit of loss. However, wins at 4th or 5th places won't help us much with any sensible MM plan.

This is just one of the various practical usage of virtual betting.

To be continued later...........