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BY: Alrelax/Glen 6-4-2019

Meaningful relationship are inclinations. The relationships you engage that are derived from both personal and tangible things will produce knowledge, experience and information of all types.  That knowledge, experiences and information can be positive, great and money-making ammunition or it can very well be negative, horrible and a financial ruining adventure!  Therefore, you need to concentrate on yourself, your knowledge, experience, information sources and application of those things along with all the other psychological and frame-of-mind contributors that will allow you to excel in the game of baccarat.

Problem is; In the last 20 or so years, the huge growth that took off from the beginning of the internet and available information and technology days, is the exponential growth of INSTANT KNOWLEDGE, INSTANT ANSWERS, INSTANT EXPERIENCE for almost all taste it in your mouth gamblers, without the blood-sweat and tears of being in the trenches and learning it the way we used to.  Two different avenues, two different ways entirely.  Being at the table for years with decent players in real atmospheres of the real thing with real money is a world of difference than practicing on a computer, jumping on a forum and reading and not even having the judgement to know if the person you are learning from or talking to is a scam artist or a 3 month, new to the game player, etc., or anything of a hundred other off the wall motivating reasons the others are there and telling you stuff.

It is certainly two-fold, do not get me wrong.  First, there are millions and millions, billions and billions and most likely trillions and trillions of potentially interesting things on the internet.  However, when it comes to learning something, there is probably an equal amount of fake, non-researched, non-verified or just plain scam artist type of fake stuff as there are the real deal, nitty gritty bits and pieces.  Fun to think you just secretly read the holy grail or stumbled upon the greatest baccarat gambling formula from some claiming to be professional that spends all day on the computer causing misnomers about people, other members of forums as well as anything else or anyone else they can chastise, humiliate or talk down to.  Why?  I have no real idea except they are time wasters and what we used to call in the auto business, tire kickers. 

The expectation is, that we can use the information to make predication, math, statistical and all that work for us as well as their own special ways as to when and how to place wagers.  Nothing else exists in the game to win, according to those that write, post and press that information, etc.  And there most certainly is tons of other things that will allow you to win, keep winning, cash out and walk with profit or lose without ever really having a chance to consistently or sporadically take a profit from playing.  Back to the main purpose here.  I am not saying that we have not made any progress in positive and real applications of gaming knowledge because of the internet, we have.  But I do believe the negative and the wrong concerning gambling and baccarat are far in excess than the other way around on the internet message boards, forums and the paid sites.

Considering that there are millions and billions and trillions of papers and all that on the internet, it would be a shame if there was not useful stuff. But they are obviously not all real, useful or going to lead you immediately down easy street and onto the holy grail within a few days.  You will still have to define, interpreted and discover what is reliable, accurate and useful for your financial assets that you are risking and playing with and how to set your own protocols and plans.  The average Joe reading a good portion of the stuff we write, will not use any of it, IMO.  He will believe he is researching and learning, but his brain and own experiences and knowledge will overwhelm him with complete changes to most everything he reads on the internet when it comes to risking his own money on it.  Most, and I use that word with lightness, MOST, are not really contributing much to generating knowledge or really anything worthwhile at all.  Then they all get talked about and passed on with twists and turns, etc., etc.

And just about everyone, probably 95-98% conservatively, out of every 100 people at baccarat tables around the country, would never consider themselves an average Joe.  Never.  Never ever.  And therein lies today's problem, false positives.  FALSE-POSITIVES.  Read, absorb, believe and behave with false positives that control, influence and direct you to the wrong thinking, beliefs and theories at the baccarat table and you just earmarked your bank roll and every buy in for donation to the casino. 

That is why our predictions may be more prone to failure in this era of big data availability.  AKA: The Internet.  For those of you that really played prior to 2000, maybe 1996 or so, you cannot honestly tell me that there was all this theory, gossip, formulas and knowledge that we instantly find on all the message boards, forums and paid sites today back then.  No possible way, sorry it was not. 

As there is an exponential increase in the amount of available information. There is likewise and exponential increase in the number of hypothesis to investigate.  There is so much misunderstood and miscalculated, unproven and biased information out there to easily click on, it is dangerous.

But the sheer number of meaningful relationships within; The data, theories and experiences elaborating upon and posted on the internet forums, message boards, web sites, and sold by systems inventors (or whatever they are called, scam artists to doctors to wizards) , etc., is huge and then the correlation begins as to how the baccarat world really works and all that data, does not lend credence to anything, does not make it all or any of it the real truth.  Most of the data is just noise, as much as the universe is filled with empty space.  Reality, hard core reality.

So, a mathematical person can equate and explain problems, so what? So, a statistical person can lay out, define and explain equation involving millions of hands or shoes of baccarat, so what?  All of that and many more like them, all mean absolutely zero in wagering on the next 10 to 15 or 5 to 30 hands of baccarat at a casino.  No one knows the order of the cards and how they will come out.  No one. Unless of course you are a member of The Tran Crew and you already seen the cards come out and they were not shuffled going back in the shoe. 

There is knowledge and experience that is valuable as well as huge amounts that are nothing more than fallacy, wishful thinking and twisted reality that is by far most of the data out there.  The knowledge and experience that would lend actual credence to you, that you will find and read on the internet is low.  Some, but not much at all. 

And the bottom line is; That the real accurate data, tips, stories, experiences, long term consistent positive stuff is small, real small.  But the flip side is, the little bit that is out there, must be used correctly, not just used without further knowledge, care, concern or background, Understand?

Here is how false positives dominate the internet as well as the baccarat tables.  Hypotheses are 80% or better of true scientific data and correctly deemed to be true.  And about 90% of false hypotheses are correctly rejected.  And yet, because true findings are so rare, about two thirds or better of the finding deemed to be true, actually are false!

Why is the error rate so high? To some extent, that question cannot be answered with completeness the way you would like it to be or the way the system inventors, drama kings and the troublemakers spreading their everyday poop, would challenge it to be answered with exact completeness.  However, a close answer will be this in my opinion.  There are many reasons for it, some having to do with our psychological biases, some having to do with common methodological errors that are believed but the naive, and the rest having to do with misaligned incentives.  And the closest reason for the rest of the problem is a flawed type of statistical thinking that players of baccarat want to be winners are desperate to believe.  That is why the complete answer will never really be exposed and even if it is, those reasons will always, always keep it covered up and not widely spread.

Back when everyone was awed by AWACS Airplanes, New special units of the DEA, Specialized and Classified joint law enforcement, Military and Intelligence Agencies interfacing together to fight the War on Drugs, etc.  That was all headlines for a long time and many grabbing numbers justified everything for anyone seeking some numbers.  Numbers justify everything but mean nothing without people and their brains to use them, profit from them and get something from them.  Many of those same principals were transpired, used and reinvented into business models as well as the gambling industry from the laypersons standpoint anyways. 

And here is all you had to know if you ran into a bad spot and you were high up at the time.  Nikita Khrushchev.  When Khrushchev was forced out, he sat down and wrote 2 letters, he gave then to his successors.  And said; When you get yourself into a situation you can not get out of, open the first letter.  When you get yourself into another situation you can not get out of, open the second letter.  Well, soon enough this guy found himself in a tight place, so he opened the first letter, which said, Blame everything on me.  So, he blamed the old man and it worked liked a charm!  The guy went to the mirror, looked at himself in it, put his hands on his hips and said; You are the man, wow this stuff is easy, just blame some one and it goes away.  Well he got himself into a second situation he could not get out of, so he opened the second letter.  It said; Sit down and write 2 letters.

Understand?