The following will be a continuing series of posting.

Long and hard research here. Analyzing countless past play with why I did what I did, textbook study and a lot more. Now I will start this thread with the goal to allow you to change your response to what you cannot control, which is the presentments of the shoe.  But you can allow yourself to grow stronger and understand your decision making, which affects your buy-in, bankroll and producing a higher profit.

Know what is really happening at the game of baccarat, relying on your experience; is it a negative advantage? But truly using interpretation can be to your advantage.  You must know what the differences are and how they both affect the decision making process. 

Sit down and seriously measure yourself against your wins, losses and the decisions you made with the reasons you did. Interpretation of your experience is what will clearly give you real advantage with your decision making process in the game of baccarat. 

Interpretation occurs as the result of a combination of several factors. The mind has an automatic tendency to interpret an experience and create a story/a fallacy about it based on your memory, past realizations, and situations you have encountered yourself or with others when you were present. Your mind then selectively gathers data from within the experience(s) to support its interpretation. It may seem to you that your mind is simply trying to figure out your experiences, but really it's screening for evidence to support the decisions you are making from your story it is clinging to. However, your story is delusion because your mind is being clouded by extremely strong emotions brought on positively or negatively with each hand presented from the shoe.

Therefore, a crucial skill for minimizing emotional chaos and sustaining clarity in your baccarat game is the ability to distinguish between your experiences and your interpretation of your experiences. Your experiences are simply whatever is happening at the moment; the hand, the wager won or lost, the camaraderie, high-fives or fist bumps, the long faces and the banged chips against the table, etc. etc.

Your interpretation is your minds reaction to those  experiences. One way to understand this difference is to picture that when you are directly experiencing a moment similar and you are within it. When you are truly interpreting it, you will put yourself outside of it and give yourself a true advantage.

You must become committed to a particular and interpretation regime to the point that it becomes a habit, a story that you repeat in related circumstances. For example, your interpretation generated by your reactive mind usually will become your primary experience which will usually be opposed to whatever is actually happening in the game of baccarat that needs your full attention and be considered advantaged response. Then what normally happens is we continue on with the shoe, but our attention is split and far less than complete. That causes us to allow frustration, emotion and disarray to sit in fast which will add poor decision making forcing us to revert back to our experiences having no direct correlation to the shoe we are playing.

The shoe is not your battle ground! Your mind is your sole battle ground you face at the table. It is the place where the conflict resides, the place where we develop habits that put us in direct opposition with the reality of the shoe being played. It's where the things we figured would happen, never happen; or were the things we believed and desired to happen actually happen. But we fell prey to our own train of thought because of direct opposition with reality. Therefore, if we were right we tend to repeat and we all know the game of baccarat will never repeat itself over and over the same way we want it to. And on the other hand, if we were wrong then we correct ourselves and the shoe reverts back to producing what we believed was wrong. 

That is what you call direct opposition with reality in the game of baccarat.

It is where our expectations get the best of us and we fall victim to our own trains of thought, again and again and again. It is our own fault within our own mind, not the shoes fault, or the shuffle, or the cut, or the other players wagering against us, or the dealer, etc. etc.

Truth be told, in the game Baccarat we will receive a unique set of unexpected and unknown limitations and variables within a shoe. The advantaged question is:  How will you think and respond to the hands being presented?  You can either focus on the lack thereof (experience), or empower yourself to play the game resourcefully with full and real advantage, making the very best of each outcome as it is presented (interpretation), even when it's hard to accept with a loss of your wager.

The bottom line here is, that you cannot control what is happening around you and with everything that has already been set. So you challenge yourself to control the way you respond to what is happening to straighten out those habitual, spiraling patterns of thinking that clearly the highest majority of all baccarat players engage in. But that is much easier said than done though, for all of us. Because it is hard to change the habits we engage in mostly at a subconscious level. But we can get better by bringing more awareness to what we are doing through our own experience and proper interpretation of such that will give us viable advantages with our decisions concerning wagering.

Will post again when I finish my next part.

The questions are tough, the questions are ones that most never find the answers to, never really want to deal with, or ones that are quickly dismissed as unanswerable.  But they MUST be!

I desperately struggled for years to engage into finding answers and just thinking about it stressed me out countless times. So I simply avoided the questions and the soul-searching it demanded of me. Until............Recently.

The tangled and the misunderstood realm of the game entered my mind and remained in the forefront at the end of every single session I played. The presentments, the shuffle, the dealer, the amount won or given back, the published and written Q's & A's and stories. All ran through my head on the way out of the casino after each session.

Think about it. The shoe produces presentments that fall within the sphere, the domain within which anything and everything can occur, prevail, sometimes dominates the field, or fails to produce anything recognizable. Other times the presentments are totally recognizable and they match our beliefs, desires and decisions spot on, sometimes even allowing us to win like 7 or 8 times out of 10 leading us to fantastic wins. 

And with that said, onward with what this is really about, decisions and making them while winning.  How would it have been great if we previously left? Think about it, sure we are after anything to protect our buy in and a small or smallish win.  But IMO and experience, the greatest wins and 'great' sessions come after an 'up and down' of my buy in.  Which means, a drawdown of my buy in, evening out and getting a little bit ahead, once even twice, like being on a roller coaster ride. 

Larger wins take a climb, meaning a bit back-and-forth, winning, losing, pushing back-and-forth, etc. Parlay and positive progression wagering really boosts the person's chip stacks, visually and physically which will definitely assist in relieving the person's emotional downturn and stress factor, making it easier for clearer and more focused decision making.  It does for myself every time I get within the event of a nice ongoing winning session. 

IMO there is no magic percentile when to stop or continue play when you are winning. But one thing for 100% certain, if you stop, you cannot win more. And the more you win the more you want to continue playing. I don't care who you are, that applies to each one of us.

One example comes to mind that happened to myself not long ago. I arrived at my regular casino and no one was playing and one of my absolute favorite dealers was sitting there bored to death. We engaged in some quick small talk and I was gonna go get something to eat and kill an hour or so and come back. Anyway I took out only $100 from my buy in risk capital I brought and I laid it out on the table. She said, 'WHAT'?  I said, one hand be nice, just checking you out before the real play when I come back from eating. I put $80 on the banker and $20 on the fortune 7. She gave me a fortune 7 for an $800 win. I played a few more hands, and I won most of them. Not many hands later she gives me a second Fortune seven. A few people sat down at that time. By the end of the shoe I had over a $2,000 profit, got up to well over $3,000 and gave back about $1,000. She is telling me to take it and leave. Not a bad return on the next to nothing investment of my only $100 buy in.

But I felt something and not just because I had a huge return on my $100. So into the following shoe, I reached well over $8,000 of win money and I called it quits once I drop down to $7,000 of pure win. All of it off that next to nothing $100 buy in. 

And I remember her, seriously telling me to take the money and leave when I was at the $2,000-$3,000 mark. Thinking back on that, at least twice I almost did, but the ups and downs were quick and I stalled out at that $1,800-$2,000 mark and again at $2,900-$3,300 mark as well. Then I took off again with winning most all parlays and positive progressions for 1-2 or 3 hands and losing only those when I backed down to my base unit wagers.

So if I left with say $2,500 I never would have reached the $7,000 to $8,000;mark. I was basically doing a 1/3 risk of what I was winning once I reached the $3,000 level which I have written about countless times in my money management method, that I normally use.

Here are three quick examples of what I am talking about here actually was applied and gave me clear advantages.

1)


2)


3)



NOTE:  Reference #3.  I have several pictures of the scoreboard and will post them.

So many believe it is an easy decision to make. I guess it depends on your experience, outlook, desires and goals. For myself, I love the point of working my drawdown, getting a bit of profit, working that into my money management method and looking for the 'takeoff'. And for me that is where the money is really at. At least it is for myself and most of the people that I play with at the casinos. Buy in safe-a but of profit. But I do know playing on all win/won money is what I strive for.  But, it gets confusing at times. How much longer to quit, risk the win money further, leave even if winning fails to continue, etc., etc.

So many repeatedly write/say on the forums, win 1 to 3 units and leave. Lose 3 to 5 units and stop. I can't fathom that and I don't play that way. I don't have those kind of win stop, loss stop rules. I can never see making anything substantial if you play like that. Maybe I'm wrong? However mine are like so many. They want to win sizable amounts and I do, quite often. My loss stop is my buy in money. My buy in is my risk capital for the session. My win stop is unclear without definitive numbers. Once I takeoff, if I do, I govern myself by my 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd Money Management Method.  Which works like a rock-solid rule manuscript maintaining success or having further profitability 1,000,000% of the time!

It works extremely well and I know it does, because I have no regrets if I was winning nicely, then gave back 1/3rd win and continued my play with my second 1/3rd of my win as my playing money. If I took off again, great, that is what my 1/3rd sectors are designed to do. If I lost a 1/3rd sector and struggling with my second 1/3rd sector, I am normally done. I have my buy in plus 1/3rd to 2/3rds of my win.  Cash out, leave, done and that emotional, 'I shoulda and coulda' doesn't exist!!!

So many win and see their session as unprecedented and a labored win they so rightfully deserved. They get into a zone, tuning everything out and become their own worst enemy most every single time they win or when the wins are happening for them. But they have nothing to govern themselves with.

It is easier said than accomplished at the table, but the only way to really excel is to focus, be extremely conscious and forget the past and what the shoe has produced or failed to produce in the past hands. Wager with the shoe's presentments and do not wager for your own desires as to what the shoe should produce or what your desires are. 

We talk about it all the time, especially with the ones we actually gamble with. The questions go something like; "How long do you play" or "If you are winning how long do you stay" or "If you are losing, how long will you attempt to come back" or "If you keep winning do you just up and leave at a certain point". And so on and so forth.

Tough, real tough if you soul search. By theory, so simple. If you are winning and start to lose, leave. If you were losing and can't get above your buy in or your buy in is depleting, leave.  But, it is not easy because we all know the presentments can certainly match our decisions and blast us into the positive if we were losing, or if we were winning, can blast us even further ahead. 

There are no easy, simple answers and never will be. However, you will wish you left much more than staying when losing. Because you experience the loss of your funds if you lose them. However, if you win/won or broke even and left, you probably will not really know what would have happened to really come about with a definitive conclusion. 

The 4 things I found that give me advantages into my play.

1). DO NOT ATTEMPT/LIVE to beat the game/session.  You can't and will never do it!  I promise you that;

2). TRULY UNDERSTAND what you are up against;

3). CALM AND PATIENT.  Hard as heck to do with losses, but you must.  Don't dwell and don't have the mind frame to recover and win something; 

4). UNDERSTAND AND REMAIN CONSCIOUS of the following.  Anything and everything can happen in no particular order or protocol whatsoever. 

Well back in Atlantic City prior to the close of the Atlantic City Hilton (previously was Bally's Grand) our casino hosts used to walk around and hand these out for extras, besides all the comp they arranged, etc. 

Sure we had promo chips, which were always play until you lose, unlike todays, one time use style.

We used these primarily at the gift shop or restaurants when we didn't want to get a hold of a host or we could give them to our non-comped friends.  They were valid for any bearer. 

Like I said, unlike today!

Recognizing Suspicious Activity - Red Flags for Casinos and Card Clubs

PDF
fin-2008-g007.pdf    85.46 KB
FIN-2008-G007
Issued Date
August 01, 2008
Guidance Subject:  Recognizing Suspicious Activity - Red Flags for Casinos and Card Clubs

This guidance is intended to assist casinos and card clubs1 with the reporting of suspected money laundering, terrorist financing and related financial crimes. This guidance contains examples of circumstances or "red flags" - based on actual reports, the observations of examiners and the experience of law enforcement - that may indicate the presence of money laundering, terrorist financing, and related financial crimes.

Casinos that are subject to the federal Bank Secrecy Act ("BSA") have an obligation to implement anti-money laundering programs that include procedures for detecting and reporting suspicious transactions.

Casinos are required to implement risk-based anti-money laundering programs that assist with the identification and reporting of suspicious transactions, including employee training and written procedures on recognizing and addressing indicia of suspicious activity and vulnerabilities that may arise in the provision of particular products and services.

Recognizing Suspicious Customer Activity

Casino employees who monitor customer gaming activity or conduct transactions with customers are in a unique position to recognize transactions and activities that appear to have no legitimate purpose, are not usual for a specific player or type of players, or are not consistent with transactions involving wagering. Many casinos routinely obtain a great deal of information about their customers through deposit, credit, check cashing, player rating and slot club accounts. These accounts generally require casinos to obtain basic identification information about the accountholders and to inquire into the kinds of wagering activities in which the customer is likely to engage. Attempts to Evade BSA Reporting or Recordkeeping Requirements

Be alert to customers who try to keep their transactions just below the reporting or recordkeeping thresholds, such as:

Two or more customers each purchase chips with currency in amounts between $3,000 and $10,000, engage in minimal gaming, combine the chips (totaling in excess of $10,000), and one of them redeems the chips for a casino check.

A customer seeks to cash out chips, tickets or tokens in excess of $10,000, but when asked for identification for completing a CTRC, reduces the amount of chips or tokens to be cashed out to less than $10,000.

A customer pays off a large credit debt, such as markers or bad checks, of more than $20,000 over a short period of time (e.g., less than one week), through a series of currency transactions, none of which exceeds $10,000 in a gaming day.

A customer receives a race book or sports pool payout in excess of $10,000 and requests currency of less than $10,000 and the balance paid in chips. The customer then goes to the cage and redeems the remaining chips for currency in an amount that is less than the CTRC reporting threshold.

A customer, who is a big winner, enlists another individual (who is not a partner of the customer in the gaming activity), to cash out a portion of the chips or tokens won to avoid the filing of a CTRC, IRS Form W-2G or other tax forms.

A customer attempts to influence, bribe, corrupt, or conspire with an employee not to file CTRCs.

Using a Cage Solely for Its Banking-Like Financial Services
Be alert to customer activity involving unusual banking-like transactions at the cage, such as:

A customer wires funds derived from non-gaming proceeds, to or through a bank and/or a non-bank financial institution(s) located in a country that is not his/her residence or place of business.

A customer appears to use a casino account primarily as a temporary repository for funds by making frequent deposits into the account and, within a short period of time (e.g., one to two days), requests money transfers of all but a token amount to domestic or foreign-based bank accounts.

Minimal Gaming Activities Without Reasonable Explanations

Be alert to customers conducting large transactions on the floor with little or no related gaming activity and without reasonable explanation, such as:

A customer purchases a large amount of chips with currency at a table, engages in minimal gaming, and then redeems the chips for a casino check.

A customer draws casino markers (e.g., between $5,000 and $10,000) which he/she uses to purchase chips, engages in minimal or no gaming activity, and then pays off the markers in currency and subsequently redeems the chips for a casino check.

A customer makes a large deposit using numerous small denomination bills (e.g., $5s, $10s and $20s); and withdraws it in chips at a table game, engages in minimal gaming, and exchanges remaining chips at a cage for large denomination bills (e.g., $100), a casino check or a money transfer.

While reviewing computerized player rating records, an employee determines that a customer frequently purchases chips with currency between $5,000 and $10,000, engages in minimal gaming, and walks away with the chips.

A customer using a slot club account card inserts $2,990 of paper money (or an amount just below established thresholds) into a bill acceptor on a slot machine or video lottery terminal (e.g., contemporaneously inserting $5s, $10s and $20s), accumulating credits with minimal or no gaming activity, presses the "cash out" button to obtain a ticket. The customer goes to three other machines and conducts the same activity for $2,990 at each machine. Then the customer redeems the tickets for large denomination bills or casino checks with different cage cashiers at different times in a gaming day.

A customer transfers funds to a casino for deposit into a front money account in excess of $5,000; and withdraws it in chips at a table game, engages in minimal or no gaming activity, and exchanges remaining chips at a cage for a casino check.

Unusual Transaction Characteristics or Activities
Be alert to transactions with any unusual characteristics, such as:

A pair of bettors frequently cover between them both sides of an even bet, such as:
- Betting both "red and black" or "odd and even" on roulette;
- Betting both with and against the bank in baccarat/mini-baccarat; or
- Betting the "pass line" or "come line" and the "don't pass line" or "don't come line" in craps; and,
the aggregate amount of both bettors' total wagering is in excess of $5,000.

A customer routinely bets both sides of the same line for sporting events (i.e., betting both teams to win) and thus the amount of overall loss to the customer is minimal (known as hedging).

A customer requests the issuance of casino checks, each less than $3,000, which are made payable to third parties or checks without a specified payee.

A customer furnishes a legitimate type of identification document, in connection with the completion of a CTRC, or the opening of a deposit, credit or check cashing account, which:
- Does not match the customer's appearance (e.g., different age, height, eye color, sex); or
- Is false or altered (e.g., address changed, photograph substituted).

A customer presents information for the completion of CTRCs for different gaming days that contains conflicting identification information, such as:
- Different address or different spelling or numeration in address;
- Different state driver's license number; or
- Different social security number.

A customer makes large deposits or pays off large markers with multiple instruments (e.g., cashier's checks, money orders, traveler's checks, or foreign drafts) in amounts of less than $3,000.

A customer withdraws a large amount of funds (e.g., $30,000 or more) from a deposit account and requests that multiple casino checks be issued each of which is less than $10,000.

A customer arranges large money transfers out of the country which are paid for by multiple cashier's checks from different financial institutions in amounts under $10,000.

Criminal Activities
Be alert to a customer conducting illegal activity, such as:

A customer conducts transactions that the casino believes to be the result of some illegal activity or from an illegal source (e.g., narcotics trafficking).

A customer or a group of individuals forge signatures or use counterfeit business or personal checks to obtain currency, chips or tokens.

Questions or comments regarding the contents of this Guidance should be addressed to the FinCEN Regulatory Helpline at 800-949-2732.

1 See 31 U.S.C. § 5312(a)(2)(X) and 31 C.F.R. § 103.11(n)(5)(i) and (n)(6)(i). In this guidance, the term "casino" is used to refer to casinos, card clubs and other gaming establishments that fall within the BSA and FinCEN's regulations, unless otherwise noted.

Financial Institution
Casinos

OMG!  I received this gift yesterday.  Absolute Beauty with its Leather Binder.  Brand new! Gold Gilted Pages!  Silk Marker Strap!

The Special Edition Of:
THE BACCARAT CASE

FROM: The Notable Trials Library

This edition was published in 1992.  Originally published in 1933. 

This Special Edition has a introduction by the very well know, Alan M Dershowitz, Esq. 

The Baccarat Case is about A British Nobleman and close friend of the Prince of Wales that had cheated at baccarat.  The trial in the law courts, Queens Bench Division of London during 1891 about playing Baccarat the year before in 1890. It is about slander of William Gordon-Cumming against Mrs. Arthur Wilson and others.

Going to be a great read of historic legal history involving baccarat.  A nice addition to my book collection!

Nothing to beat the house ITLR.

OK let's admit it. That statement is correct. Frequently written, frequently sided, frequently argued about.

Books, systems sellers, forums, etc. Plenty of written material out there. Tons and tons of promises, guarantees, sworn by reviews and so on. There are a handful of good basic books no doubt, but deciphering through what's available to find those is kinda like draining the swamp to see what will benefit you.

In my opinion and that of others I respect, admire and know are experienced and serious players, is the following. There is no secret, magical, developed, mathematical or scientific protocol-formula or procedures for winning at any casino game that will guarantee wins each and every time you sit down by employing them.  Period! 

With that said here are just a few of what a random search of casino gaming books provided from the dust covers, by the authors or a customer review from a 'verified purchase'.

FIRST ONE I READ:  "I am not going to claim you can win every time but reading this book allowed me to win $987.00 starting with only $100 after reading the book. The next time I made $375.00 starting with only $50.  So over three days I made over $1,300.00.  Simply because I followed what the book said that I paid only $29.00 for!"

NEXT ONE:  "The book I just mentioned is how to control the dice so you can hold them on average 15 to 20 minutes every time you step up to the table. Sometimes you can hold them for 45 minutes. You learn how to set, grip and throw to get predetermined numbers."

NEXT ONE:  "The power betting strategy pays for the book thousands and thousands of times over and over. No questions about that."

NEXT ONE:  "This fast reading best seller is updated to show beginning and intermediate players how to beat the casino at all the popular games including the latest slot machines."

NEXT ONE:  "I'm selling my secrets for under $100 because I care about my fellow player, I dislike the casino that takes most all players hard earned money. There's no doubt about it you will win large amounts of money with my system."

Now with the above said, with passion-purpose and experience you most certainly can profit from table games within the casino. But it is never going to be by reading a simple book or following a system you purchased with all kind of enticing promises and so-called 'proven results'. Never ever, seriously.

How do people survive writing and publishing worthless books, systems and related information? Because of money. People will buy them and believe in the written promises as proven, real, and so called 'proven' ways to get over on the casino as factual, researched and luckily made available. 

But in true reality most all of the information, systems and conversions of data and techniques and of course, the 'deciphering of statistical results' are wrong. Their promises of what most everyone of them publish is more than obnoxious, it is offensive and wrong. Especially for playing sessions at a casino consisting of anywhere from 1 to say 8 shoes each time.

Of course the carelessness and neglect of the consumer comes into play.  Which are all the people that believe it is math and statistical technique applied to any game, which will allow them to profit thousands and thousands of dollars with the easy winnings just waiting for them.

Bottom line. This sensationalized information turned into 'How to beat the casino' or 'How to win easy money', etc. etc., are coming from authors that are well aware their material can never be the definitive protocol to consistent, easy, repetitive and for sure winning sessions.  Never ever.  Period. 

Those making the type of statement and promises, "read my book or follow my system" and "you will make easy money, guaranteed wins, beat the game" and so on, are all inappropriate and unprofessional in every way whatsoever.

Baccarat.  Our wagering decisions are frequently and enormously fueled by lies from others as well as our own beliefs that most would be better off without.

To understand how to win, what might happen and how presentments probably will not-but might follow something; you will never find definitive answers to.  Baccarat is unlike all the scholastic, mechanical and technical/industrial teachings, the way we were/are taught-instructed, whereupon there is a definitive solution for most every situation or problem.

Coupled with, "I have won previously by wagering so-and-so after such and such", or the event of "XYZ almost always appears and it has not yet", etc. Those are powerful subconscious things that do influence most all players at the baccarat table. Every single time.

There are basically three modes of wagering at the table. 1)  Your decision based on what you believe;  2) Follow others because they are winning or seem to be in the groove; 3)  Sit and watch.

Let's look at those three modes.

1)  When it works it's great. Adds win money, adds emotional positiveness and confidence. However, our beliefs, which you must realize, are well less than 50% in most every session that will come about and we can capitalize off of. And that is the key, see explanation below. (#1 Explained)

2)  Usually works for one or two wagers, but the absolute highest percentile of time fails after those and your frustration level will be compounded with large amounts of, "why in the F*** did I do that?".

3)  If hands develop and win that you picked, you will become frustrated and add to a larger clouded judgment you already had.

#1 Explained.  I will state that in all the years I have played, my wins are most certainly less than 50% of my wagering. Not one doubt about it. That is why flat betting will never prevail in the highest of the high percentile grouped any way you care to analyze it. Positive Progressions will add advantages and fuel to your play if you know how to develop and apply a Money Management Method that works in your favor and to your advantage when you win.

And of course we attempt to duplicate our wins with reasonings. Such as equalization, naturals cut or stick, ties cut or stick, chop chop, etc. etc. And if we start to win numerous Wagers (more details at: https://betselection.cc/index.php?topic=11605.0), we open ourselves up for, "I knew it-I found it-It's going to happen again without a doubt", and those types of self promoting statements. And most mistakes are made if flat betting again after initial wins—then it happens and you win again, so you are further convinced the parlay and use progressiveness should be employed but the highest majority of all times, it falls off and you lost the wager. Of course because you convinced yourself you found it and were right, etc., you wager once again with progressiveness on the same and another loss amounts. And that becomes the typical, "I gave it all back and I lost my win money as well as my buy-in money scenario.

There are so many false hoods and so many lies that are either published, sold as systems, talked about with great drama on forums  or sold in books, that it is pitiful. Take all the statistics you want. Attempt to deduce those down to one or two or three or four or five shoes and the odds of being able to win the wagers preached, session after session after session are so totally in favor of the casino, I hate to think about it. 

Sure, whatever you are believing in by using some kind of statistics might occur, but it will not under any circumstance, be consistent and repetitive shoe after shoe or at any time within a session continuously, session after session after session. And the few times it works gives you such fuel and motivation to continue the attempt, if you don't wind up continuously losing your buy-in risk capital, you put huge amounts of strain and unnecessary risk on your buy-in and/or previously won profits.

Here's what happened.  At the Baccarat table.  We were all winning (our group of 5), mostly playing together for a couple of shoes.  Full table with plenty playing over our shoulders.  All spaces have 3 spots, one seated and the other 2 standing.  Anyways, like I said we were all winning.  Dealer change and we were working on 3 Winning Bankers hands and the dealer gets tapped out.  New dealer, we all look at each other and mouth the word 'Players'.  (For some unexplained reasoning, most of the time it does fall off or cut from Bankers with the new dealer coming in.  Why?  No reasonable explanation, but it certainly does.)   

A second look at each other and we are all at table max wagers, we mouth the word Bankers.  Okay, we are all on the Bankers.  Players return a Natural 8 and I say, "Houston, we got a problem".  Then the Bankers return a Natural 9. 

The 5 of us get paid, color up and walk away.  We cash out and decide to go off property to get dinner.  Once at the restaurant and seated at the table the others look at me and say, "Houston, we got a problem".  Laughs and high fives.  Good times.  So I say, let's all name as many famous movie quotes and whom they are from within 5 minutes each without stalling and the winner, second and third runner up pays nothing for dinner and drinks.  The other two pay the entire bill.  We all agree.  We all had steaks or seafood and the drinks included cognac, brandies and other premium types.  The bill is always over $100.00 each.

I got second place and here are mine.

Batman:  "I'm not going to kill you.  I want you to do me a favor.  I want you to tell all your friends about me"

Superman:  "I'm here to fight for truth and justice"

Clint Eastwood:  "But being as this is a . 44 Magnum, the most powerful handgun in the world, and would blow your head clean off, you've got to ask yourself one question: Do I feel lucky? Well, do ya, punk?"

Al Pacino:  "Say hello to my little friend"

Clark Gable:  "Frankly my dear, I don't give a damn"

Judy Garland:  "Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore"

Strother Martin:  "What we have here is a failure to communicate"

Robert Duvall:  "I love the smell of Napalm in the morning"

Pat Welsh:  "E.T. phone home"

Sean Connery:  "Bond.  James Bond"

Cuba Gooding, Jr.:  "Show me the money!"

Jack Nicholson:  "You can't handle the truth"

Alfonso Bedoya:  "Badges?  We ain't got no badges!  We don't have to show you any stinking badges!"

Arnold Schwarzenegger:  "I'll be back"

Tom Hanks:  "Houston, we have a problem"

Sylvester Stallone:  "Yo, Adrian"

Tom Cruise:  "I feel the need for speed"

Those were my 17.  Other guy got 22.  Someone jotted down mine and I copied it last night. 

One for the books.   

From my heart and soul. Winning is everything, but you must handle it with complete consciousness. Most all will shrug off everything I'm saying here and lose not only their winnings each time, but continuously their buy-in amounts.

Winning is nice, of course. But winning is what leads to danger in the game. Without a doubt, the number one largest cause of immediate and aggressive losses. Newbies will never understand so just skip the article because it will probably only confuse you.

Yes, without any doubt whatsoever, without winning there would be zero reason to play. With that admitted, said and laid out, read on if you want to learn.

1). Winning feeds large amounts of positive emotions into the player.  Most have no idea how to handle the influx of winning within a shoe or at the end of it. 

2). Winning tends to override all plans, guidelines and paths all players believe they have and plan to play by.

3.  Winning alters thought.

4.  Winning fuels additional play which is almost always based upon emotions and hype.

Winning convinces most all, that whatever came about allowing the win or wins, will continue or will be repetitive within the shoe. And most of the time it was probably a coincidence. Hard to decipher at the table, I agree, but factually and statistically true beyond a reasonable doubt.

So many players, both new ones as well as experienced, never recognize the concurrence and casual connections between their reasonings and the appearing outcomes from the shoe with winning hands. Sure there might be a few that were absolutely planned, but the majority of them were not at least how they came about. If you care to admit it, you're honest.  Those that link the concurrence and label it factual and statistical are dead wrong and causes great future losses trying to be repetitive with those. 

Would've-Could've-Should've. We have all been there, honestly. No purpose served, only adding frustration and bad emotions every single time. Reference what is coming out of the shoe, the total additions and/or reductions to each hand, how long the same trend lasts, how a series of hands were formed, etc. etc. etc., the list is long and that is what I mean, Would've-Could've-Should've, frustrating yourself into another world.  Especially after a series of wins.

The win is extremely powerful and absolutely convincing to the person playing. And without even knowing it, that is what changed your mind, thought process and will cause you to give it back and begin the ugly chase to regain it. That is exactly what happens the highest majority of all times with players capitalizing nicely during a shoe.

***Because winning is the most influential event of the game. Nothing else compares. Huge psychological subconscious and some conscious beliefs are immediately formed from winning. Be careful.  Those beliefs normally take over and altar most all players thoughts, don't be one of them.

We normally follow what has won us something. Naturally we don't follow or wager on what has lost us money. However, we tend to forget about the 'change up', that so frequently happens. When you win, stop a second and think about what I just said, consciousness and not following only what has just caused the win. 

How are you engage or disengage is the key and because there are no written protocols, that will always work in your favor, remember that. Wins and further wins are capitalized on by being able to continue and stay in the groove, knowing how to cope with drawdown and using win money as capital, will work in your favor. Allowing win money to alter your emotions, clarity and picture will force you to give it all back and jeopardize your buy-in aggressively.

***Unfortunately, expectations and characteristics of what has happened, as well as what has not yet happened with the shoe are usually the largest factors most players allow to govern their play. Reread that and hopefully you'll understand it.

Unfortunately wins are not a clear path to additional wins, what so many truly believe each and every session. It is because those very same things that caused the win, do not and will not at work other times. And unfortunately any way you slice it, the reasoning to your wins work less when you tally the characteristics of them up.  Hence, is why I say, win and give it back and chase for the loss.

Understand winning and how it comes, why it came, why it doesn't and most of all, how to apply it to your Money Management Method.

How you engage or disengage with the winning process is the absolute key.

The table was almost full, there was a pure chop chop happening.  Probably about 7 or 8 hands and it was about 25 hands into the shoe.  Sat down, bought in.  Only one available seat next to a guy not many like at all.  He is pretty much a consistent players side bettor, the highest majority of the time.  Nothing wrong with that, but it is his constant obnoxious comments and actions that get under most other peoples skin that are playing.  For example, most people might be on the bankers side with plenty of black and purple chips or larger stacks of green, and he will be on the players  side with the table min to $75-$100 at most.

A typical hand would go something like, players first two card total 1 and bankers first two totals 3.  As the dealer is pulling a 3rd card for the player, he would certainly be saying out loud, 7 or 8–gimme 7 or 8, in sharp loud broken English. 

He is ALWAYS OBNOXIOUS, not one doubt about it!  He is S.E. Asian and talks extremely limited English, but recites numbers and select words well, the rest of his talk is always in S.E. Asian. 

Seriously, no real problem most all the time.  To each his own.  My personal way of acting is, unless I am on a side where everyone is on or I am the largest or darn close to being the largest bettor, I rather not say anything until the hand is over.  $4,000-$5,000-$6,000, etc., on one side collectively, then a sole person wagering &15-$25-$75 on the other side is perfectly acceptable, but why say something before the hand is over hoping everyone losses with considerably larger money than myself?  Compounded with extremely seldom does that guy wager with everyone on a sole side. 

Okay.  But the other night, like I said I believe everybody was on the bankers, several covering the Fortune 7 bet as well. It was 2s and 3s in the beginning 15 hands or so with maybe one single and then the chop chop when I came in, with a couple of ties. I believe there were seven maybe eight chops and a Banker when I bought in just appeared.  I put my bet on the bankers and several others did as well. Others went with the chop for the players side. It was a players, lost my first hand. Of course the guy laughed and talked  something I did not understand. Still no real problem, just normal.

The next hand he does not do anything. Most all go on the bankers because of the chop, a few did not bet. The guy does not wager. It was a Bankers, Still with a consistent chop chop. Now, the next hand. The guy wagers first and immediately starts his small talk; chop, continue, win-win, etc. Most do stay out. A few on the players side. Myself on the bankers and wagering on the fortune 7. The others have no Fortune 7 wager.

Players first two cards totaling 3, bankers first two cards totaling 2.  Mister Obnoxious stands halfway up and leans in a bit and says five, give me five card. Players get an ace. So naturally as the dealer is ready to pull the bankers card, Mister Obnoxious says, monkey monkey monkey coming out.  Okay, the song is definitely playing in my head, I don't know why I came here tonight. I got a feeling something ain't right. I'm so scared in case I fall off my chair.  I actually said those three lines out loud.  The dealer is holding it back, she is making eye contact with me because she knows how Mister Obnoxious operates. 

The dealer is about ready to bust out laughing but controls herself.  Now normally with anyone betting the opposite side, I don't call for cards.  Maybe if I am on the banker side and covering the Fortune 7 and the players having less than seven with the first two-three cards, I might call for a six or seven if the bankers have a zero or one and bankers are drawing their third card. 

But with things going the way it was, I just had to say, give me that 5, yes ma'am give me a 5 please. The dealer pulls the card and put it on its edge and she could see it before we see it and she quickly blinks at me and I can feel it in my heart that it was a five. As she blinked her eye, I immediately said, I got a feeling something ain't right (you know, from the song by Stealers Wheel) and just about everybody bust out laughing because they all got what was gonna to quickly happen except for Mister Obnoxious.

She flops the 5!  Fortune 7 time!  So I say very loud, there it is that 5 you called for, beautiful! And the guy went FRIGGIN Berserk!!! Oh my God, totally berserk. Loud, screaming, yelling and of course all in S.E. Asian. No one answered him, not one person. Dealer was holding it in, very obvious. It was one that I will not soon forget.

 

Found these earlier today stuffed into an old notebook I was going through. 

As most of you know, I was in New York/New Jersey for many years.  One of my primary and favorite properties of the 90's was Bally's Grand, later known as The Atlantic City Hilton Casino. 

Tons and Tons of memories of all kind!  Anyways, I was back there playing Thanksgiving week of 2008.  My host at the time comp'd me a seat in their private suite box  to go and enjoy the Philadelphia Eagles game.  Limo from Atlantic City as well of course.  Remember the casino's butlers from their private suite floor at the casino hotel also there, prepping and serving all kinds of catered in food and beverages.  On the back of my box ID, I wrote down Eagles 48 Cardinals 20.  McNabb threw 4 TDs as well.  It was a cool game, especially for the Eagles fans and it being the home field.  Great memories!

The second one is a 100.00 comp the executive hosts would hand out to use at their gift shop or elsewhere on the property.  Their gift shop had some pretty good stuff in it, unlike most these days.  We got pretty much anything we wanted, within reason, but the executive hosts would walk around and throw these 100.00 'use as you please' self comps on the tables to their players in the high limit room.  Usually 3, 4 or 5 of them at a time to their players.  Again, great memories!

It involves everything a casino must do and does concerning player buy-ins, cash outs, refusals to produce ID, CTRs and SARs, and much more.

The reason I am posting this is because the other night a guy won about $8,000.00 at the table. He bought in for at least $5,000.00 that I saw. He cashed out $7,500.00.  He returns to the table and plays a few hands. Grabs $5,000.00 in purple chips and goes back to the cage. Returns back to the table and I asked him why he didn't cash them out all at one time. Told me he didn't want a CTR created, so he cashed out well under $10,000.00 and the second time gave them $5,000.00 and will get a check in a few minutes for that. So he was smiling and said, he just avoided a CTR. I told him it does not matter he is still getting a CTR filed. Years ago correct, but not no more my friend. $7,500.00 cash and $5,000.00 check equals a $12,500.00 CTR. And probably an SAR for doing the split transaction as well. He told me I had no idea what I was talking about.  (And transactions are most certainly figured cumulatively based upon the casino's 'gaming day' by the financial compliance department, no matter what the clerk at the cage or VIP counter tells you)

Please note as so many argue about and cause drama on the forums, it all starts at $3,000.00 of transactions by the player.

If you click on the link you can read it all.

Here is a copy and paste of just one little section concerning the starting threshold of $3,000.00:

(9)

(i) A separate record containing a list of each transaction between the casino and its customers involving the following types of instruments having a face value of $3,000 or more:

(A) Personal checks (excluding instruments which evidence credit granted by a casino strictly for gaming, such as markers);

(B) Business checks (including casino checks);

(C) Official bank checks;

(D) Cashier's checks;

(E) Third-party checks;

(F) Promissory notes;

(G) Traveler's checks; and

(H) Money orders.

(ii) The list will contain the time, date, and amount of the transaction; the name and permanent address of the customer; the type of instrument; the name of the drawee or issuer of the instrument; all reference numbers (e.g., casino account number, personal check number, etc.); and the name or casino license number of the casino employee who conducted the transaction. Applicable transactions will be placed on the list in the chronological order in which they occur.


The Entire Act Referencing Casinos:

https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-31/subtitle-B/chapter-X/part-1021

By the way, I have several letters from casinos with their inquiries to FinCIN with relation to bills-in (slots) as well as players cards (rating cards) and what is or should be considered a cash transaction. You will be amazed at the inquiries and protocols! I will post some interesting sections of those letters later today.

Research.  Be Creative.  Adapt.  Be Smart.
                            Win! 
      Learn What to do When You Win.

One of the paradoxes of creativity is that in order to think originally, we must first familiarize ourselves with the ideas of others. Thomas Edison put it this way, "Make it a habit to keep on the lookout for novel and interesting ideas that others may have used  successfully.  Your idea needs to be original only in its adaption to the problem you were working on." 

So understand what problems you face and why you face them, that is the research you must engage in to have a clear picture of what you need to adapt.  Adaption is a common and inescapable practice in creativity.

Here are 10 things you should be asking yourself and have answers to.

What else is like this?

What other ideas does this suggest?

Does the past offer a parallel?

What could I copy?

Whom could I emulate?

What idea could I incorporate?

What other process could be adapted?

What else could be adapted?

What different contexts can I put my concepts in?

What ideas outside my field can I incorporate?


Remember.  When you place things in different contexts and situations, your imagination can stimulate new ideas. 

The importance of remaining neutral.

It takes making decisions in the game of baccarat in order to wager.  Making decisions entails many things and so many players never really understand their own process they employ.  One of the most positive, supporting and clarifying things you can engage in for decision making in Baccarat, is neutralism.  And here is why.

First of all this is a very serious subject and one that I think everyone can benefit from, if you understand how and why you make your decisions.

The action is super influential at the table.  People winning, people losing, events happening while repeating and no one is on them, to continue, to stop, etc. And there you are, thinking you were the average and just trying to fit in while keeping to your own agenda.

The other day I was playing and there were all 1's and 2's. It went on for almost half the board approximately 35 to 40 hands. I sit down and as soon as I sat down there was five in a row Bankers with one fortune seven. Everybody else was wagering on the players side except for myself. Just one example.  After that, it went back to ones and twos, but eventually both sides got much stronger and everyone remained winning one or two, while losing several in a row because they were hell bent on the thought of the continuation of ones and twos. 

The other day I sit down and finish the shoe and with the brand new one that first started there was about 10 to 12 pure chop chops and I couldn't get it in my head to keep parlaying and moving my bet back and forth with the pure chop, especially in the beginning of the shoe. Coupled with the majority of the hands losing and wining by one point or one natural wining over the other opposite side having a natural as well. 

Approaching limits. To be limited and something else begins. Because there is certainly deviation in most all shoes and the majority of the times it is multiple deviations, not one or two or even three times.  So misunderstood with the exact ring of failing to believe in and practice, neutralism.

People in my opinion, confuse following and going against the shoe in a huge way. Reread that and understand that sentence.

To me, with the correct mindset, they are both the same way because I am ultimately following only presentments. I am not following a trend or a pattern until after it already happens and if I play that way the highest majority of the times I will not recover what I have already lost in the attempt.

Here is another one from the other day:

BPBPBPBP (then) BBBPPPPBBB (then) PBPBPPP

4 things or 2 things?  Think.  Hands 1-8 chop chop one thing.  Hands 9-17 repeating another thing.  Hands 18-21 another thing, chop again.  Hands 21-23 another thing, starting repeats again.  Or is it two things with hands 1-8 as well as hands 18-21 one thing, all chop chop?  And hands 9-17 as well as hands 21-23 and some after also one thing, repeating hands? 

Learn how and why what you believe the shoe should produce, because in my opinion too many feelings and desires influence most all wagering.

There is a message the scoreboard sends out. This is what has happened. Are you smart enough to wager on what will happen? And to most, that would be the opposite. In someways it is, but in so many ways it is not.

At the table almost always, others will be focused on issues and possibilities opposite what you believe and desire to occur. Something to be totally conscious of, is hitting one or two wagers and allowing that to influence your trend of thought. Remain neutral!  Your most prized possession for so many reasons you never even thought possible.

Neutralism

After much thought, strong reading, thinking, playing, looking back with total open mind, I have finally realized the ultra importance of true neutralism.

Get rid of all the preached bull stuff, ask and ask yourself honestly if you have viewed the occurring event(s) differently, meaning from an absolute neutral position, would it have been much more profitable to you?

Interactions between the results and yourself should be neutral in regards to visual and physical exhibits and feelings.  But usually at the baccarat table it is far from that.

A hand is a trait, consisting of a winning side and the losing side. The physical and behavioral characters so repeatedly affected by the hand must be unaffected. 

Neutrality is the independence for your knowledge and experience, shy of any fallacy and desire, to make judgments and/or facilitate decisions independent of any bias (Fallacy-desire-supposed to be's) which you go along with, emphasizing on the process rather than the outcome.

It is rare but somewhat possible. But implies tolerance regardless of how disagreeable, unusual a perspective might be or not be. So, in neutrality decision making you will be expected to make judgments that are independent of any bias whatsoever, emphasizing on the process rather than the outcome. Why? Because the outcome is forming, But first the presentments and continued presentments must be made. 

So in my opinion and extensive experience, it does best to get away from favoritism from sides and distinct tendency to act upon that favoritism. Why? Because favoritism will promote ignorance, huge bias, double thinking and the simple disability to follow presentments from the shoe no matter the order they are coming out. 

Ignorance, bias and double thinking will, the highest majority of times, not allow you to exhibit neutrality and when you do, most likely you will feel bias and choose not to act on it. A neutral person can be very well-informed and act upon his views with clear thoughts and positive financial thought without being bias into ignorance, decision bias and double thinking. It's that simple.

Therefore the difference of a person with and without neutrality is, that a neutral person can use information, sight and knowledge without being ignorant, not being biased causing double thinking and sway with a quality to his own unbiased thought process. 

NOTE:  Doublethinking.  Accepting both sides as correct. Equality. Viewing both sides equal.  No matter what, no deviation. 

Neutrality requires tolerance. No matter how disagreeable and/or unusual a bias might be presented.  Do not confuse this with a 15 or 18 hand streak of something.  I'm talking about before you get to that point in order to be able to recognize a presentment with its following event, that it just might turn into. 

You must remember, ingrain within yourself, it is the process rather than the outcome. Outcomes must be set aside while the presentments are occurring. They will get you nearly 90% plus of the times.

HIGHLIGHTED NOTE:  Notes, clipboards, stats, pen and paper, etc. etc., that is why it is permissible with notetaking at the Baccarat table!  BE CAREFUL OF THINKING.......'SHOOT, I CAN FIGURE THIS ALL OUT AND SET MY TRIGGERS JUST LIKE THOSE YOUTUBE VIDEOS SHOW', etc.

Neutrality is classically expected to make judgments independent of biases, counting on the process rather than the outcome. But baccarat confuses that. Simply because players confuse themselves. Some will tell you to wager with no bias, others will tell you to wager with bias on the 'deficient' or against the 'too many' for example. Both can be correct and both can be wrong. Often, the difference is incommensurable with no real factual way for pure measurement.  Think about it.

Incommensurable.  NOT ABLE TO BE JUDGED by the same standard as something. Having no common standard of measurement.  Plain English = What happens as a result of something one time, fails to do the same thing another time or several times in a row thereafter or sporadically, but might happen consecutively for a bit. 

Basically in the game Baccarat, commensurability is a concept of science (gambling) whereby theories would be commensurable and we could lay out and discuss those theories to determine almost 100% of the time which one is more valid and useful to be in the winning favor.  The one that won, right alongside the won that lost. 

However, in reality-factual 100% reality, theories in baccarat are incommensurable because all of the reasonings, counts, cards burned through, cards not burned through, events occurred and events not yet occurred, etc. etc., do not sufficiently overlap with any type of complete justification with conceptual framework. Another paragraph read it and understand it!

That is why the gossip and belief happens from empirical evidence favoring one theory over another and inventing the wagers that become muddled, confusing and the winning hands will go on by the way of unforeseen contexts and consequences.

Empirical evidence might be fine in epistemology and law, but in baccarat it should not be allowed at the table!  And it continuously happens over and over and over. 

And if you desire to understand epistemology go Wikipedia it.  Learn the sub fields that make up the theory of knowledge, such as philosophy, ethics, logic and metaphysics. Then, take your knowledge, belief, truth, justification and attempt to package them into a reliable process which will turn acquisitions into true belief which can in turn become a reliable positive process working in your favor while actually wagering on only assumption.

To myself, the value problem is vitally important to assessing the advocacy of theories of baccarat knowledge that are played, preached and talked about.

I go by the following. According to Jonathan Kvanig, an adequate account of knowledge should resist counter examples and allow an explanation of the value of knowledge over mere true belief. Should a theory of knowledge fail to do so, it would prove inadequate.

Knowledge is valuable, but usually used wrong at the baccarat table because knowledge at the Baccarat table is usually absent of all sorts, if not completely of neutralism. Instead, focus on understanding without perception and reason, while hovering afloat between the knower and the mental state of believing.

Think!  Seriously Think!

Success.  Not easy and if it is, it's not really success of any real type.  At least in my experiences anyway. 

Success in Baccarat, seriously not easy. But always trying to accomplish greater, quicker and better wins in new ways, same game.

I spend a lot of time, maybe you do too, thinking about greater profits from the game of baccarat. How can I get those additional profits? Then there are other times when I just think, it cannot get any better the cards are just too slick and as fast as I win it, it will go right back. Okay, a bit exaggerated but point made.

Sometimes I compare myself to others. At different times in a casino, out of the casino, while driving as well as watching TV. Not where I sit and dwell and become envious of anyone or proud I am not them, just a general 'think through' for various reasoning.

But I am what I am. It is what it is. I have the history, I do. I'm sure you do too. I try not to be locked into any certain idea, gambling or otherwise, unless it is working flawlessly. Few and far I admit, but nonetheless.

I don't think I ever said this before but I will put it into clear words. Handling stress and everything affiliated with it; pressure-anxiety-suffering-pain-worry-etc., etc., etc., is something like this.

I think stress is the ultimate feeling to master, tough tough tough. At leaves some people alone, but it hits most of us whether we create it or we subject ourselves to it, more than others. Stress is unrealistic, dismissive, demanding, cruel and certainly ways far in excess than a ton of bricks sitting on your shoulders.

In Baccarat, stress is watching your well-placed Wagers, hard earned money, risk capital buy-in funds, your chips that represent actual cash dollars that can certainly purchase all kinds of goods-services and fully pay bills outside the casino, go from your stack to your wagers to the dealers rack, hand after hand after hand.  That is pure unrelenting stress.

Stress is a gut wrenching, stabbing that radiates from your head, to your heart and right down into the pit of your stomach. Stress blurs your vision, dries your mouth out, stops your brain from a normal thinking process and disallows your hands and feet to remain perfectly still. Stress is strong and stress is uncontrollable to most all of us. Stress pushes us to the limit, as well as beyond the majority of the times when it sets in each of us.

Stress does not flee the body even with a few wins, or once you're to the even point, because stress is real and stress is not a light switch where anyone can really turn it off it will. If it was, it wouldn't be stress at all.

Stress, honestly I hate it. But it's a part of life because of various things I engage in, casino and otherwise. It's okay, my doing. I don't blame anybody. But I have to admit when I do lose my buy-in and risk capital, especially the larger sums, and others say; "better luck" as you were getting up, or "thanks for playing with us", or "don't worry there's always next time", etc., should really just keep quiet because their words are like pouring salt directly into an open wound in my opinion.

I know without stress, there is really no success.  And for myself, I would rather in so many ways talk to, go out to eat with and Q&A someone for hours, that knows the game and what stress really is. Why? Because in my opinion and experience, those people are by far more realistic, smarter and well ingrained with, 'life goes on-improve', type of personality and frame of mind rather than that, 'I'm better just follow me if you really want to win', type of person. 

Seriously.

Paul Newman, The Colour of Money (1986) quote: "Money won is twice as sweet as money earned."

Cara Bertoia: "It's hard to walk away from a winning streak, even harder to leave the table when you're on a losing one."

R. E. Shay: "Depend on the rabbit's foot if you will, but remember it didn't work for the rabbit."

Phil Hellmuth: "If there weren't luck involved, I would win every time."

Wayne Gretzky: "You'll always miss 100% of the shots you don't take."

Terry Murphy: "A gambler never makes the same mistake twice. It's usually three or more times."

Edmund Burke: "Gambling is a principle inherent in human nature."

Baltasar Gracián y Morales: "Quit while you're ahead. All the best gamblers do."

Nicholas Dandalos: "Remember this. The house doesn't beat the player. It just gives him the opportunity to beat himself."

V. P. Pappy: "Gambling is not about how well you play the games; it's really about how well you handle your money."

Understanding the minimum, the average and the maximum wagering and how those fit within a great money management method is not all that complex.

In my opinion, to take your game to the next level you must be smarter, better and focused, while being absolutely 'on board' with your play. If you are not, you will add more negative than positive to your game. I promise you with all my heart that you will.

Besides from the tangibles of a player advantaged money management method, such as bankroll, buy-in risk funds, drawdown understanding, 1/3rd 1/3rd 1/3rd division of your win money, etc., there is a very large part of money management methods which you must understand what your plan is, what your goal is and how you are going to accomplish those.

There certainly are intangible stories behind the numbers that can never be known or in any way guaranteed within any shoe. However you must understand the reasoning behind your play and how you capture the possibilities that are actually opportunities.  So, you must have a targeting focus to get you there.  If you don't, you will most likely fail. 

While bet selection and the frequency of them is very important to winning, without a money management method including a tangible working target incorporating the knowledge of minimum, average and maximum wagering, you are failing to add pure advantage to your play.

Of course, without a doubt we desire the maximum. But you must realize when and why to increase or decrease your wagering.  Along with that, you have to understand there is a pathway to and from the minimum, the average and the maximum wagering at the table.

Your wagering that is lost, will create conflict within yourself. And conflict has a lot to do with playing Baccarat in my opinion. Why? Because conflict will change your frame of mind and how you wager with or without your conscious thought. That is not good for you. Be aware of conflict and how and why it comes about. Stay within your comfort zone.  You can find your comfort zone if you understand the proper use of the minimum, the average and the maximum. 

Conflict is the result of events, usually events that went the opposite way you wanted them to go, or if you were remaining neutral, but had a feeling it was going to be a winning result coming about.  As you witnessed  others at the table begin to prosper nicely, conflict can also come. Be aware.

Conflict is a deep and complex subject and all I did after hours of rereading my notes, was just to highlight the above.

Putting it all together. Realize what is happening, why you are making the decisions you are. Such as, are your decisions from the previous hands, triggers and superstitions, the events themselves? Or, are they from the results you have the deduced down from the other people there playing at the table? Huge difference and huge consequences will come about. I literally promise you that. Learn how and why you do things at the table, you will help yourself to be better, make clearer decisions and be better focused while dealing with the events as a great player should be.

I have learned money management methods properly formed and believed in by players are the absolute most valuable and important advantage to playing Baccarat. A Money Management Method is so much more than a stop loss and stop win for a player. I have written in depth about what a real money management method is and you can certainly find those threads on the forum.

Baccarat tables in brick and mortar casinos have a varied range of minimum and maximum wagering limits. The highest majority of casino properties have limits such as:

$10-$25-$1,000
$25-$1,000
$25/$50-$2,000/$2,500
$25/$50-$5,000
$25/$50/$100-$10,000

Most of the higher limit rooms have a limit such as:

$100-$10,000
$200-$15,000
$300-$20,000
$300/$500-$25,000

There are variations around the country of course, but those above are a good example of the highest majority of properties.

Minimums-Averages-Maximums

You need to think of your bet selection as targeting. Naturally the fewer wagers you place, the less chance you have to lose. But in most all cases, as well as reality, the players drawdown will never be covered by his buy-in risk capital or his available funds. Why do I say that?  Because the highest majority of all baccarat players continuously haphazardly flat bet, grind and attempt to profit multiple times their buy-in without the proper knowledge as well as a good player advantaged money management method.  That's why.  So you must divide your wagers and place them with clear and conscious visual and physical goals within your targets. Reread the above paragraph until you absolutely understand it!

Understanding the limits and your targeting within.

Naturally the first way is to target the table minimum. My tangible thought is, that you will focus on accomplishing at least the minimum without the possible loss of too much of your buy-in risk capital funds. Slowly with little to no stress you make it count with just a little bit of parlay and progression. 

The second way is to target the average, kind of a midway point of the table limits as well as what you observe others doing. Yes, a larger goal and an increase of stress and emotions without a doubt. But if you can achieve the average comfortably, you will end up making a considerable difference above the minimum wagering.

The last target is to be able to employ with confidence, positive wins at risk and within a safe draw down amount, the maximum wagering limit or close to it. This last target must be handled with extreme self-control no matter if you win or lose. This target will place you into a new level but you have to be comfortable with it as well as realize you cannot continually wager it.

So many players as well as system sellers and book authors of gambling, will never agree with me. However, after years and years of observation, playing and realization, I know the importance of expectations, desires and tangibility of each of the three; minimums, averages and maximums. 

THE MINIMUM.

You have to understand each of the three targets and how you can win or lose under each. Maybe the easiest way to do that is comparing each to the status quo. What is the status quo? It is simply the existing state of affairs. The current situation, hand after hand for a small section of the shoe you were actively engaging in wagering on.

So to start with, you target very little. The minimum. Minimum can also be viewed as the default because it is close to zero.

You can certainly think of the targets here as getting onto the interstate and off again fairly quickly from a local side street.  You accelerate to a certain speed, monitor and the readjust your speed and decelerate.  Beginning at the minimum, accelerate to the average and peek at the maximum while knowingly focusing on the soon upcoming exiting points and how to get there.

I'm probably going to get chastised for this tangibility protocol assumption, but not many of us will ever sit down, buy in and begin with the maximum target.

I have deduced down to a tangible definition, we begin at or near the minimum as it is a lower threshold for loss, emotions, frustration and less chance to cloud and ruin our frame of minds we strive (or should) to maintain. For myself the minimum target is used as a default target and to keep me in the game while I pursue the possibilities and opportunities I desire.

THE AVERAGE.

Now about the average wagers at the table. Let's say it's a $25-$2500 table. For sake of discussion let's called the minimum $25-$75 wagers and the average $100-$1000. Why? Because in my opinion that is where most of the players will be at the dollar value of the wagers.  The average bets will be in contrast to the minimums. The reason being is the difference between the targeting of the players, their bankrolls and the buy-ins risked and how aggressive each of us are.

Of course if you desire to wager only the average bet, your buy-in will need to be considerably larger than it would if you only target the minimum bet.

If your style is to accumulate a certain amount of win money before raising your target to average from minimum, then that would be in contrast to those that begin and stay within the minimum target until a certain event comes about and they then proceed to the average target for a select hand or two or three.  Completely different styles of acceptable wagering.  That is why following another is not a very good choice because of conflicting styles and goals.

Concentrating on the average makes perfect sense when your buy-in risk capital supports such with a calculated and followed with full self-control while drawdown when losing occurs. 

If you target the average you must recognize your abilities, buy-in volatility and emotions that will come on harder and stronger than targeting the minimum.  Why?  Because a large set of psychological reasons that confuse the highest majority of players as to their wagering decisions to sustain within their target plays on your subconscious altering you.

THE MAXIMUM.

Naturally if you understand the minimum and the average, you will understand the maximum as well. However I'll throw the following out here.

If you have progressed and target the maximum on a focused basis, you will not have many of the obstacles, the frustrations and negative emotions that other type of players will encounter regularly. However, your bank roll and buy-in risk capital will have to be intensely larger than those that target the average as well as the minimum. 

You will have to be extremely focused on frame of mind and clear conscious decisions, that are impeccably spot on without distractions of any type, or large sums of your buy-in risk capital and your bankroll will suffer in much larger and quicker accumulated quantities than all other players. With no exception. In addition there are little chances of recouping and grinding back to an even status when you play focused maximum.

Of course there are bursts and one time, two time, three time, etc., wagers within the maximum range that can easily easily be sustained, from those playing comfortably within the average. 

I guess what I am trying to say is, that most all people working out would not immediately lay down and benchpress their absolute limit, time after time after time from start to finish for their workout. Wouldn't it be more advantageous to those in attempting a maximum to create the opportunity in order to do the maximum with ease and caution while staying within their safe limits?

Targeting the maximum wagers are intense because of the dollar value. To myself the maximum works well with well-planned transition from the average for a limited amount of bursts, with total conscious thought and the knowledge, willpower and self-control to retreat before being defeated.  At least the highest majority of times. 

In Closing.  Minimum.  Knowledge, patience, understanding the process and a focus to move into the average. Average. Realization with application with comfortable continuance for what allows you to win and the ability to develop a Money Management Method that supports your play. Maximum. Short inconsistent bursts that do not cause you defeat and total conscious realization that maximum is to be highly respected and must be walked away from when you lose without any affect upon yourself.

Mark, if you were to wager $25.00 straight up per number, for say 18 numbers per spin, how would you pick the numbers. 

There are 12 rows of 3 numbers each.  One on each row and another 6 divided?  Or, more on top and bottom or elsewhere, etc.?

Also, would you adjust the numbers to less or greater than 18?

Curious. 

There are lots of ways to wager with as well as, against presentments of a Baccarat shoe. Two extremely dangerous fallacies come to mind that coexist with most peoples play. Read on.

And those coincide with attempting and desiring to beat the game instead of playing along with it. Remember that.

So, let's define what those two are.

1). Hot Streak Fallacy

2). Dueness Fallacy

Both can be very intricate events in all sections within a shoe, one way or another. It is the law of small numbers because regression to the mean will be encountered.  However, events such as chop-chop, 1s and 2s, clumping, natural and then cut or stick, ties and then cut or stick, etc.  You cannot get around them and you are subject to them one way or another.

Hot Streak Fallacy

A biased combination of hands that convinces the player they had found a holy grail and to usually continue with it. In other words, the player takes on an immediate thought process he has 'almost' guaranteed chances of continued wins with further attempts no matter what the presentments continue or turn to doing.  Even after the event is finished. 

While he is winning, all is good. However, those wins usually have convinced the player to continue and stay with whatever was winning. Thus causing the player to give back his wins and subject his buy-in and additional pocket money to quick or eventual loss to the casino. 

Therefore the player puts himself into a false illusion of control which will always have negative downsides.

Can you combat Hot Streak Fallacy? Absolutely. And it is quite simple, I have written about it numerous times. I call it, remaining absolutely neutral. You don't have to give up the camaraderie of being in or on a hot streak at the table, but do remain neutral with complete consciousness about what is going to happen in a short order of time. Do not alter reality of the game of baccarat and its ability to present anything and everything as well as nothing, within the shoe or shoes you are playing.

Dueness Fallacy

The Dueness Fallacy must be likened to the poisson distribution probability.

In short, that is a probability theory and statistics for the distribution of events occurring in a fixed interval of time in space. Example.  1 million shoes of Baccarat, approximately 80 million hands, divided by any number of shoes you wish to get a mean average for the events that might or might not occur. The only problem with doing that, is the mass function of the actual occurrences can never be broken down to replicate themselves in any order that will be representative of a number of shoes you can actually play in a session or many sessions, independently or on going. And that is contrary to what so many absolutely have convinced themselves that they can do.

And while there are a great amount of distribution probabilities within a shoe of baccarat, there will be a few player advantaged events that happen a greater amount of times than others, such as clumping and equalization.

And while those do happen much more than other events in baccarat, you will never be able to identify when, where and how long those events will last or any other event.

So, is something (event-chain of events) really due in a shoe Baccarat? If it is, why and what guarantees that or those events to appear. Years of playing this game provides me with the answer. Nothing does.

From the amount of fortune sevens, to the event of every natural cutting to the opposite side, to the hand after ties sticking or cutting sides, to numerous other events, will never be known when their occurrences will be presented or for how long.

Summation.  Do not fall prey.  Be smart and take advantage when presentments begin without believing the shoe has to do anything at anytime or for a certain period of hands, etc.

Last night, sitting and talking about the game.

1).  Do not ignore the game to its true principles.  And that is exactly what almost all players do because, of their relentless frame-of-mind.

2). Exiting Points.  Know what they are and exactly the definitive number/amounts of win or loss that triggers them. 

3). Ignore the past as total irrelevancy when the fire erupts.  Because if you do not, all you will do 100%  is pour fuel on it.  Guaranteed.

4). The Continuance.  Recognize and be totally conscious of the absolute fact, that as you continue your play you subject yourself to additional losses and wins.  The bridge between your exit point is a 'seesaw'.  (You remember that long wood plank with the two handles on it, in a kids playground it took two to ride).

5). Do not fight the perfect, which will squash most of all your chances to win the larger sums of money.

6). Thomas Paine said, "The mind, once enlightened cannot again become dark". 

The absolute most unintelligent award, goes to..........the Las Vega casino maid that idolizes Daddy, Master and the King!


https://www.yahoo.com/news/las-vegas-maid-stole-768-170236431.html

I have mentioned 'The Stride' before. I try my best to keep it in mind while playing. You will always begin on the black line (see picture). Success is your session goal and failure is your loss of buy-in funds.

Although it will seldom happen, where a player goes straight to success or failure, he will usually hover within the areas between even and success as well as even and failure. Point here, is be conscious of this fact and remain conscious of it while you play. I do believe it has the power to guide you and allow you a better and clearer realization as to what your decisions are producing or taking away from you. 

Successful people do not bring success to a gaming table, but most of the tangible successful people sit down with that attitude close to or at 100% mark, each and every time. But being successful or unsuccessful in many things of your life really has nothing to do with playing the game of baccarat.  Unlike what so many truly believe. 

Success in the game of baccarat for each session we are talking about reaching your goal and winning money. The amount varies from person to person. As well, failure is the loss of your buy-in funds no matter who you are or what goals you have, period.

What so many fail to believe in and remember is, that the shoe is the shoe that will present each and every hand the way it is set to. Nothing can change it or alter it. What does happen and what hurts us are the following:

Emotions

Frustrations

Money Management Methods (Wrong & Lack Of)

An unclear understanding of winning and losing

A failure to leave with win money

A failure to have proper knowledge and use of buy-in versus bankroll funds you are risking

In my opinion, most all players create a huge problem for themselves by judging their courses of action by their outcomes. Often irrespective of the decision making process. That is exactly the point and reason where they go wrong. What it takes, is foresight (intangible), planning (tangible) and a solid base (tangible) to completely and without wavering to adhere to and get what you really want. Because what you want, most always, will not quickly fall onto you or in front of you. And that is why so many players waiver in their decisions and play recklessly.

You have to judge decisions on a process, rather than an immediate outcome as a general rule, bar a few clear advantaged events occasionally that will present themselves from time to time.

Don't get me wrong, you can't totally ignore or push aside clear results/outcomes within a section of the shoe, that are so blatantly positive or negative that can be to your advantage, just use it to improve or change courses of action to your benefit.

Remember, when you sit down, buy-in and get your stack in front of you, you are walking down 'The Stride'.  Where you wind up from there depends on the things I have mentioned herein. 

RANDOMNESS.  What truly is random?  What are advantages?  What are Disadvantages?  How can I use Sections and recognize them? 

To take advantage of opportunity within shoes of Baccarat, you will also have to face adversity (lack of opportunities).

#1). This is a long read!  If you are serious, sit down and read it, absorb it and comment on it.

#2). This is a subject that affects us all, we all have our opinions on it and while some are hell-bent how it affects them, others could care less. But I know that if you understand randomness and its advantages and disadvantages, you can profit nicely from the game.

What may or may not present itself.    And to me, that is the absolute key, the absolute Bac player's advantage.

Randomness and uncertainty can also be viewed as reality and perception as well. 

Understanding and defining everything that might come about is unrealistic.  Although it is usually used as a defense against any type of non-mathematical or statistical result from being understood and used by the theory type of players, but in all reality, it works more so, if used in the correct manner and interpretation.  Meaning, the player has to have the ability, vision and experience to reason with the info and data he is instantly compiling. 

Even as another, whom I believe is a real player at B&M's casinos said on another message board, "87% of all Bac games are 1's, 2's and 3's.  So stay within those 1's, 2's and 3's section and you will win more consistently."  Okay, great theory.  Not easy at all.  What you are really doing is pre-planning and scheduling your wagers, with the presentments of the shoe having to match your desires and planned bets.  You are not matching the presentments of the shoe, just because you figured out what the shoe does the most over so many statistical hands studied. 

I do agree with the 87% figure.  It is just that after so many years of playing Bac in B&M's all over, I just know you might deal with a greater amount of the 13% shoes than you will the 87% shoes.  At least for the time you sit down to play.  As well, even when you are at those 87% shoes, what is to assure you the 1's, 2's and 3's will continue?  You have an infinite bank roll, you have a certain amount of buy in chips to risk. 

Statistics are compiled from pretty large amounts of played shoes.  Just say out of 1 Million Shoes which would be approximately 80 Million Hands played, that the 87%/13% actually existed, true and correct.  That means, 10 Million Four Hundred Thousand hands were not 1,s, 2,s and 3's.  That is huge.  And all that number will do is climb, using 10 Million Shoes or 100 Million Shoes, etc. 

I am not saying do not play or wager for the 1's, 2's and 3's by any means.  What I am saying is that if you consistently do that, along with any other thing in Bac, you will lose and lose everything you have.  There is a time and place to wager 1's, 2's and 3's as well as streaks, pure chop chop, pairs, as well as 1's and 4's to 6's or side wagers or ties or anything else.  Why?  Because they will all come out, every one of them. 

There is no way to assure yourself, that you are within any percentage section of a mathematical or statistical result of the game.  What I gave you above regarding the 1's, 2's and 3's, is just one example of the tens of thousands of systems, advises, info insights, triggers, etc., etc., etc., that is floating around out there about Bac wagering. 

The only things that exists all the time in Bac is randomness and uncertainty.  The players put different spins on each depending on what they are experiencing.  Randomness and uncertainty can also be viewed as reality and perception as well.  Again, just depends on what a player is experiencing with the shoe presentments being made as well as his wagers.  What it really boils down to is, that all wagers are correct as well as, not correct at the very same time.  Just depends on who you are, the winner of the hand or the loser of the hand. 

Baccarat, Probability & Randomness Thoughts

These are strictly my thoughts after many decades of playing the game of baccarat within B&M casinos.

*  The highest amount of people will attempt to apply some type of mathematical and statistical "Mumbo Jumbo" to the game with & while extremely miscalculating math, statistics and probability.

*  Important point: 'It's more random than we think, not it is all random.' Chance favors preparedness, but it is not caused by preparedness (same for all forms of hard work, skills, professions, scholastic degrees, etc.)

*  As much as we want to 'keep it simple, stupid', it is precisely the simplification of issues that are actually very complex, which can be dangerous to ourselves when playing baccarat or in fact, anything to do with casino games whatsoever.

*  Things that happen with little help from luck are more resistant to randomness.

*  Mild success can be explainable by skills and labor. Wild success is attributable to variance and it does not matter if that is pertaining to baccarat, casino gambling or in fact, most any type of business.

*  One common theory for why people pursue leadership as well as idols, is because of 'social emotions' which cause others to be influenced by a person due to physical signals like charisma, gestures, and stride.

*  This has also been shown via evolutionary psychology: when you perform well in life, you get all 'puffed up' in the way you carry yourself, the bounce in your step, etc. From an evolution standpoint this is great because it becomes easier to spot the most successful/desirable  person in no matter what you are doing, participating in or even playing within a casino.

*  'The concept of alternative histories is particularly interesting. If you were to relive a set of events 1000 times, what would the range of outcomes be? If there is very little variance in your alternative histories (i.e. You chose to become a dentist and you will probably make more or less the same amount of money and live a similar lifestyle all 1000 times), then you are in a relatively non- random situation. Meanwhile, if there is a very wide range of normal results when considering 1,000 variations (entrepreneurs, traders, etc.), then it is a very random situation.'

*  The quality of a choice cannot be judged just by the result. (I first learned this in football.  Just because a play you call doesn't work out doesn't make it a poor choice. It could have been the right call, but bad luck. Or vice versa.  But actually and better defined is, that the other team just had something that outdid you or their moves just excelled and yours could not come forward and be probably executed.)

*  Certainty is something that is likely to take place across the highest number of different alternative 'WHATEVERS'.
  Uncertainty concerns events that should take place in the lowest number of them.  IMO, applies to countless things in our lives, not just baccarat and gambling.

*  We have a tendency to see risks against specific things as more likely than general risks (dying in a terrorist attack while traveling vs. dying on your next trip, even though the second includes the first). We seem to overvalue the things that trigger an emotional response and undervalue the things that aren't as emotional.  What I am saying is, that the more spectacular something or some event that we participate in or we are part of, the more our response or perception of that event will be as compared to other events, even of greater importance overall.

*  We are so mentally wired to overvalue the sensational stories that you can realize informational and financial gains by getting an insight or an advantage of some type, etc., that most times it will falsely influence you to make the wrong decision, applies enormously in gambling at baccarat.

*  Every man believes that he is quite different, better, smarter, and as well just plain more valuable than the next.  Almost all of us think that the next man can not offer anything of use, intelligence or benefit to them.

*  It's better to value old, distilled thoughts than 'new thinking' because for an idea to last so long it must be good. That is, old ideas have had to stand the test of time. New ideas have not. Some new ideas will end up lasting, but most will not.  Related very closely to the sensational stories right above this thought.

*  The ratio of undistilled information to distilled is rising. Let's call information that has never had to prove its truth more than once or twice, undistilled. And information that has been filtered through many years, counter arguments, and situations is distilled. You want more distilled information (concepts that stand the test of time and rigorous standing) and less undistilled information (the news, reactionary opinions, and 'cutting edge' research, AKA 'Mumbo Jumbo').

*  There is nothing wrong with losing. The problem is losing more than you plan to lose. You need clear rules that limit your downside.  Almost all people gambling will have the toughest time understanding this as well as applying this to the game of baccarat.  Why?  Because it challenges their intelligence and emotions.

*  Much of what is randomness is timing. The best strategy for a given time period is often not the best strategy overall. In any given cycle, certain places will be dangerous, certain strategies will be fruitful and countless ones if played on a regular basis (everyday) will prove themselves worthless or just plain wrong, etc.

*  If you find yourself doing something extraordinarily well in a random situation, then keep doing what's working but limit your downside. There is nothing wrong with benefiting from randomness so long as you protect yourself from negative random events that will come with the game.  They have to and they will, in complete contrary to what almost all players want, desire or are willing to accept.

*  Randomness means there are some strategies that work well for any given cycle, but these cycles are often short to medium term successes, all of course in time relevance. More importantly, the strategies that work for a given cycle in the short term may not be the best for long term. That is what the masses of baccarat players will not subscribe to or accept and believe.  The same can said for setting huge goals.  Unsustainable and sub-optimal for the long term.

*  Important point: you can never affirm a statement, merely confirm its rejection. There is a big difference between 'this has never happened' and 'this will ever happen.' You can say the first, but never truly confirm the second. It just takes one counter example to prove all previous observations wrong. We never know things for sure, only with varying degrees of certainty.  Which is exactly the way it is.  And when dealing with baccarat, getting 85 wagers correct and 15 incorrect can also be applied and do it without conformation and proof.

*  There are only two types of ideas. Those that have been proven wrong and those which have yet to be proved wrong.

*  Science is speculation. This is important to remember. Scientists are simply creating well-formed and well-educated conjectures about the world. But they are still conjectures that can be proved incorrect by one random event.  Does that mean the other 49 out of 50 was wrong or false?  Same with the theory and the application of mathematics.  As that too may not apply to every situation or event. 

*  It's a difficult standard to demand that you can actually implement ideas and not merely share them (there have been many brilliant philosophers and scientists who have had great ideas they didn't personally use), but is an idea really that great if you can stick to it? Obviously, everyone has different skills and circumstances apply, so maybe someone can use your idea even if you can't. But generally speaking, I think you should be able to live out the ideas you share.

*  Pascal: 'the optimal strategy for humans is to believe in the existence of God. For, if God exists, then the believer will be rewarded. If God does not exist, the believer will have nothing to lose.'  My first thought: Yes, but what if you believe in the 'wrong' God?  Should you play a numbers game and believe in the God most people believe in?  Or, can we safely assume that of the infinite number of possible Gods humans could have designed?  To me, it is unlikely that any of the ones we worship are actually the God?  So, just believe that a higher power exists? Whew. Tough call here.  IMO and only IMO.  But I am writing here and you are reading.  Again, you do not have to believe me or anything I write.  You write and give it a true.  Whew, another thought I had to put out there. 

*  Social treadmill effect: you get rich, move to a better neighborhood, surround yourself with more successful people, and feel poor again.  Then you accomplished a false positive goal and you have to work even harder to move on once again to a higher and a better plateau.  That is why I wrote many things about plateaus and levels, remember?

*  Remember that nobody accepts randomness in his own success, only his failure.  Simple, true and applies to most all of us baccarat players.

*  Skewness and expectations: you can't just look at the odds of something happening, but also the payoff you receive if it works (and the cost of it failing).  A bet on something very unlikely can be smart if the payoff is large and you have rules to limit the many small losses that are likely.  When you hit the win with the huge payoff, you never did anything wrong or negative.  LOL, but so true.

*  Minor stalemates in life can often be solved by choosing randomly. In many cases it doesn't really matter so long as you choose something and move forward.
 
*    We follow rules not because they are the best options, but because they make things fast and easy when others are involved, otherwise it would always be mass confusion, arguments and stalls.

*  Humans are inherently flawed. The cognitive biases that we have are simply a result of how our brains work. Sometimes these biases help us rather than hurt us. But they are always a result of how we are built. That makes them particularly difficult to avoid.

*  We seem to focus too much on local changes, not global ones. That is, we care too much about the latest change rather than the overall trend.  Same as what is happening in the shoe of baccarat. 

*  'Wealth does not make people happy, but positive increases in wealth may.'

*  Emotions are 'lubricants of reason.'  We actually need to feel things to make decisions.  We do not think so, but that is not the way it works.

*  Emotions give us energy and they are actually critical to life in the day-to-day world. In other words, the goal here is not to become a robot who can analyze everything with perfect logic.  If you did, you would have no time to actually employ or live the things you so desire.

*  Even if you know about randomness and cognitive biases, you are still just as likely to fall victim to them.  Which so many gamblers will never ever understand or adhere to.

*  How to overcome these biases? We need tricks. We are just animals and we need to re-structure our environment to control our emotions in a smart way.

*  Most of us know pretty much how we should behave. It is the execution that is the problem, not the absence of knowledge.

*  Do not blame others for your failures. Even if they are at fault.  You executed the move that you failed at, not them.

*  The only aspect of your life that fortune does not have control over is your behavior.

*  Repetitiveness is key for determining if you are seeing skill or randomness at play. Can't repeat it? Not skillful.  It takes skill to realize when that something is there to act on and how you will act successfully on it.

*  "We favor the visible, the embedded, the personal, the narrated, and the tangible. We scorn the abstract. Everything good 'aesthetics, ethics and wrong, fooled by randomness with us in baccarat, seems to flow from just that."

*  When baccarat players win, they suddenly begin to black out all reasoning, past mistakes and negativity until they begin to lose once again.

You know what is so sad at the bac table, witnessing all those people believing the written hype and B.S. on the Internet!

This is going to be a tough thought to get across, but it set into me the other night right at the active table. And that is, do not get emotionally attached or detached from what is going on. It will probably equal out and most all the times it does, referring to the Players/Bankers winning hand count within the played shoes. How it does, is usually different than the previous time, reference when and how it does. And that is kind of a key factor in successful wager, IMO.  Most certainly there are times it does not, like 40s and 20s or 30s and 20s, etc.  But far greater amount of shoes end much closer, such as a + - 1 to + - 5 range.  Remember that if you are trying to gauge yourself in some type of wagering pattern depending on the count.

There most certainly are reasons why it does but those probably never will be discovered and exposed. As far as how and when the equalization occurs in the shoes being played, that part will always be truly random allowing for all of the reasons why people wager how they do.

One of the problems with all this is the scoreboard, roads and beliefs, all staring you in the face and coupled with your beliefs, thoughts, chips and greed, power overcomes rationale at most every single turn of the game. Simple and I challenge any single one of you to say different.

Can it help? Sure. Can it hurt? Absolutely. And that is the point I am trying to get across.  Thoughts and beliefs are the two single greatest things that will either make you or break you in gambling my friend. 

You have to be able to recognize and be neutral to what and how the presentments are occurring, not for the why.  Just think about, winning. It does not matter one bit why you win, it matters what and how you won.  Remember that.

The true randomness is, what and how the presentments happen/are happening. Not why they did. Once again, you will never ever figure out the why of it. Simple.  Period.

All the writings about fictive this or that, up on losses and down on wins, adhering to random pieces of wishful thinking, etc., etc., which are believed by most to have to be presented, are such total BS it is sad and if played regularly will take your money most every single session. Might be great writing and great hope, but zero advantages and only luggage on your shoulders at the tables.

The most powerful things are, positive progressive wagering and a M.M.M., that includes 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd in your session. 

Chart all the losses you want. Chart all the wins you want as well. Does not mean anything! Never did and never will.  That is what is truly random in this game. What wins one time, loses another or wins again in a slightly different way. There is no telling, no mechanical predicting in any way whatsoever that can make a steady profit. All of the results from tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, millions of hands and shoes will never ever allow the serious player to earn a profit. All those results, triggers and math 'anything' will never be translated into session by session. Never ever.

What does make money in this game, serious money? That is positive progressions that you were able to wager on the side that is simply, winning. Does not matter if it is the side that is catching up, pulling ahead or both sides remaining equal in the hand count. A win is a win. What is your advantage is to be able to win more positive progressive wagers and walk out with a greater amount then your buy-in on a repetitive basis.

An Edge Without A Physical Bias

First, a disclosure. An Edge Without A Physical Bias.  That is what wins the game for me, when I concentrate and truly adhere to all the things I spend time to detail and write about on the board.  Some will go into dialog about my posts are too wordy, too long, too hard to understand, etc.  But, I am very sorry, there is no other way for me to explain as there are just numerous variables I have found that play parts together to make up each session's outcome.  And yes, I do throw in analogies and a few other things as well, you can always skip my threads, no problem. 

Physics?  You just cannot grasp anything to do with it?  Mathematical and statistical adherence to what the pros (the real ones [LOL] you know, they are the bonafide and certified ones) say the test results produced and yet you still lose?  Complete failure to understand anything to do with those?  Perhaps you understand it is sheer greed and if you can only control yourself with a tiny bit of profit you can multiply that by 30 and make a heck of a great living sipping drinks all day and lounging at the casino table without a boss, the way certain members of many gambling forums claim that they do, especially the ones that post repetitively the same short concise statements saying that they do.  You know you actually over-stay every session you play and yet, you still stay when losing no matter how much you already won and when winning, you can never leave---so you are totally convinced that you have it all figured out and will literally beat the casino but somehow you just can't pull it off.  Those are just a few of the scenarios that exist in everyday real life at the casino but there are so many more.

I have spent decades gambling in Brick & Mortar casinos, never on-line.  I have numerous family members in all 3 of the largest gaming jurisdictions of the USA in some type of upper management positions, mostly in marketing or in table game operations.  I know about gaming and I know about players as well, I know about casinos.  IMO, it is no different than a retail store or a service business that has specialties they offer to the industry.  Marketing, salesmanship, industry press releases, perception, what the market will bear, and so on will set the prices, the need, the willingness to support one or more businesses of the same type, the poor quality business and the high quality class act ones as well. 

Stores selling merchandise at below inventory wholesale costs, to attract customers that will usually wind up spending far in excess of what the business would lose if people failure to act on impulse, desire, greed, desire, eye-candy and many other factors of the same nature.  Value has a lot to do with gambling and something few of us actually think about.  Basically, I say when you don't have it or never did, there really is not much value when you actually get it.  Meaning, you don't have the slightest clue what you have because you already have it.  Sounds contradictory, but I plead with you, that it is probably 99% spot on in most every case.  It's just the way our desires, emotions, greed and everything else mixed up inside of us, works and governs each of us at the casino table!  Especially with money and hard assets.

An attempt to understand the casino system and what their largest ammunition really is, would be the understanding of the following:  "People are under the illusion that they can outsmart the system", just by recording and scoring games or thinking their money management system will govern themselves or a host of other pure and sheer fallacies.  And the first part of that sentence holds true to the hundredth power with so many things including; police/detective work, retail offering, and employment background screening investigations, liquor licensing applications and thousands of other things as well!  Once you really understand that sentence and how you look at things you learn, research, attempt to apply and will wager with, then you are starting your journey down the correct path.

But it all boils down to the human brain, with desires, greed, lust and a host of other things along those very same lines.  Fortunately, for the casinos and unfortunately for the players, almost every single one of us has those things instilled in us from a very early age.  It all started with your mom and dad and their 'rewards', for yourself when you were good and those same things taken away when you were bad.  Then you learned how to milk the system and then manipulation you taught yourself without even knowing it.  You found the sweetness of self-rewarding yourself with the 'fruits of your desires', sort of saying.  Each of us has it and each of us deals with that in many different ways, some good and others not so good.

"Gamblers have a stronger misconception of randomness and are so willingly to bet on it". 

Please understand the words, Misconception, Understanding, Interpretation, Inaccurate and Inadequate, they are specifically different and very relative to gamble, but in the attempt to keep this from being way too long, I am saying, Misconception.  I have termed it, probability matching, and that is a side effect all humans are subjected to at the gaming table.  Especially when they are winning large or losing large.  It was instilled in our pre-human ancestors when they were out hunting and searching for food.

Evolution has primed us to have a low threshold for detecting patterns.  That is the physiological bottom line.  You would learn that in Psych 101.  That is medical science, nothing I made up.  So that very same thing will affect your gambling decision making thought process.  And that is exactly my point in all this.  It is not reality sitting at that table and almost all of you think it is.  It is different, virtually the opposite and then once you have it all figured out, it reverts back the other way.  And those my friends are all the parts that throw the mathematical and statistical data right into the garbage can every time. 

The down sides and why there are actually down sides you can detect. Because it is that we get a lot of false alarms.  In the casino, that equates to losses.  In almost everything else, we chalk them up to and use them as rejections, mistakes, learning, improving, necessary happenings, etc.  But in the casino, they equate to devastating losses and missed wins/profits.  That is the key element to the entanglement of your mind and its ability to continue to play, figure out and stick to whatever can win and get away from what cost you not to wager on correct presentments, etc.

Generally, those false alarms are harmless to most, but that is not always the case.  In so many player's agendas, they will convince themselves what is correct to wager upon, as to what is coming out or what has not came out, or what is supposed to happen according to the numbers, etc.  That is the key triggers that so many, most all will fall prey to.  Gamblers place money on those, no matter if they admit or not that was their reasoning.  Some will wager large amounts of money and other will grind it slowly with smaller amounts.  And no matter the value of their wagers, it does not matter.  They will do it repetitively and consistently.  Then they win some or lose some and that does not even matter.  They will wager against whatever they were wagering on that won, then they continue to lose.  Or they lose when they actually convinced themselves, that they were supposed to have won, but they did not follow doctor or wizard, 'so and so', math and stats that proved rightfully correct.  So then they lose their intelligence per-se and they become controlled by their desires, their emotions, and other factors that cannot and will never be able to match with certainty, their wager with each upcoming presentment.  The more they play, the more they lose.  Even when they win, they only fueled themselves with false fuel to keep going.

Then what happens? Well I have observed, that right about the time the people will point to whatever allowed them to feel that they choose the right side by matter of intelligent choice, nothing really existed that will allow them to repeatedly use just that in upcoming presentments that will be a solid 51% or greater positive experience on a consistent basis from thereon out.  Please re-read that and understand that, because that right there is a major key in understanding yourself and the reason for control in the game of baccarat.  And there is a double whammy to this as well.  That is, the strongest patterns and trends are always the worst for most players these days.  Because they challenge the strongest parts and have either convinced themselves or had themselves convinced, that baccarat is a true 50-50 game, a game that always equals itself out and you can prevail if you only wager against anything that is repeating itself or dominants.

Then the losses start, their impulsiveness starts as well.  Reducing or increasing pattern recognition becomes the key to success which will not ever come about the conventional way.  Meaning, by reading the books by the doctors, the wizards, the self-proclaimed professional gamblers, the X dealers and casino personnel, etc.  Buying systems guides or being exclusively mentored and tutored or joining a $50.00 a month elite club of want to be millionaire gamblers, etc.  It will not happen no matter how much you believe that it just might.  Sorry, but that is the cold hard truth of the day.

And if you can even begin to really understand what I just said, then you might be one of the few, the very few that might survive the 'Flip of the Switch'.  We all seem to unknowingly inflict ourselves with false fuel, continued torture and just plain, guaranteed losing when we found ourselves with that last, 'all in' wager, or the other one, 'all or nothing', types of wagers.  Winning and losing without letting yourself get beat down, by using a buy in which is only a smaller percentage of a bank roll and a bank roll that is administered properly is the start.  The rest of it will depend on your ability to remove yourself from everything I mentioned, desires, emotions, the mindset that allows yourself to think you have an edge to beat the casino, etc.  We continually let ourselves literally lose our money, the casino does not take it, you give it to them with the decisions you made.  The blame only adds more false fuel and further bad intelligence to your game.  I promise you that.

We give them our money because of our blatantly wrong information, data and beliefs we choose to believe. Almost all gamblers will do the proper research, engage in training, obtain the proper information for almost all their non-gambling activities such as, seeding and fertilize their lawns, sports, hobbies, crafts, etc.  But when it comes to gambling, once again, almost everyone believes in that, 'I can outsmart the system' type of intelligence that will only repeatedly hurt them until they are broke.

What is the, 'Flip of the Switch'?

'Flip of the Switch', is complicated, but for sake of keeping it to a couple of sentences, it is the player's thought process that will govern him with the recognition of patterns, trends, and whatever else he is convinced will be the next presentment from the shoe.  His wagering on that without regards to reality and then being sucked into gambling fallacy, LOCK, STOCK & BARREL.  The gambler has no idea that he actually wagered on his impulse and not on a tangible pattern, trend, or other defined presentment as he was really thinking he was doing.

Hence, 'Flip of the Switch'. In other words, the lights were turned out on the player.  He lost once again.  Simple.  As well, once the action starts, say 4 Bankers appear, half the gamblers next to him just know and say out loud, how it has to cut back to the Players side and begin to wager for such.  The rest of the people there, just know it has to continue and streak with the Banker.  So a switch gets flipped in the person's brain somewhere, changing the way we each define the game.

And when you don't have the experience, the knowledge, the insight and much more, the compelling biases are truly overwhelming, 'Flipping of your Switch', when you are in the game playing, actual play with actual money.  And if you lose and are losing more than you are winning, it is not the auto shuffler, it is not the unlucky dealer, it is not you lost count of the VIN/SAP Counts, it is not the failure of the Banker to continually excel the way it is supposed to, it is not the failure of the shoe to produce an exact replication of those 1,000,000 shoes broken down to the 3 or 5 or 10 you sat down to gamble at, etc., etc., and so on.  It was the fault of your wagering in direct conflict with what legitimately came out of the shoe, no matter if you wagered or not. You were just convinced to wager on the losing side because of the numerous factors I wrote about earlier and those factors turn very quickly into strong compelling biases that almost everyone has no idea what they are or how to figure them out.

And therefore, with yourself deep into biases, you play and play and play and believe compelling biases that cannot and will not hold up on a regular and a consistent basis totaling the majority of your play.  Unless and only unless, you can twist, turn and manipulate the same system that legally, with precision a well-planned entire scenario, relies on human nature to wager with their desires coupled with greed, that governs the player based on their beliefs that wreak havoc on their emotional and financial life.

Some posted previously.  I revisited and merged a few threads of mine and added because of the way so many people (gamblers) convince themselves that the shoe at the table has to do what they desire.  Which is, not to present what it is setup to produce.

Thanks for reading.  Comments, thoughts, experiences?

We take for granted events will happen as well as events not happening.

And both cost us money, all of us. I was at the casino the other night. Bought in at nearly the end of a shoe, few hands left. Won a few and lost a few. Ready for a new shoe. Shuffle, cut and burn. Shoe began.

Shoe starts, Natural 9 player. So I thought here comes the player dominating in the beginning once again. I bet Banker and lost the first hand. Then a double Banker came and won both. Stayed Banker for the 4th hand, but a strong player came and it was a Banker with a seven and player had zero for its first two cards. Third card for the player was an eight. So floor is quiet and it's just myself and one other player.  Floor person is well-known and talkative. Gives out max comps plus. Comes over and says, look easy game 1-2-1-2. Now lost two and won two. Slightly ahead, since I parlayed second Banker and cut it back for the third Banker that didn't appear.

So we are sitting at the 5th hand coming and wagered Banker, I won. 6th hand wagered banker and won again. Floorman said again, look easy game, 1-2-1-2.

I wanted to wholeheartedly follow that but something inside of me said not to. Why? I don't know.

Granted, anything can happen, pattern/trend or otherwise. But I preach, when it is there to follow it when it's not, don't attempt to change it. 

Also no ties. My 0-1-2-3 no or low ties, was also present, big time. Which to me defines itself as, repetitive presentments and clumping, no matter how winning hands are grouped, etc.  The 3 tangible items present are the following:

1)  Beginning of the shoe;

2)  No ties;

3)  Pattern/Trend clearly present.

So we are sitting on the 7th hand coming:

P-BB-P-BB
 
Won four, lost two. Sitting with a slight profit, very slight from the two wins. I stay for Banker and once again the player comes through with a natural.

P-BB-P-BB-P

I actually wanted to wager on the second player but did not. Once again I wagered banker. And banker won. Wagered again banker and banker won again for another third set of doubles. Such a darn perfect 1-2-1-2-1-2.

Same thing, floorman says easy game 1-2-1-2. Dealer looks at me and she says, 'Glen this is not you'. I'm sitting with three losses, my wins have three of them wiped out. I should have had an easy six wins with only two losses the way I was looking at it. Which would have been the 1st hand and the 4th hand as a loss. I failed to fall into an easy groove is what simply happened. 

Now I continue but go light on banker. Another huge mistake!  Win the next two hands.  So we are sitting at the following:

P-BB-P-BB-P-BB

Lose the 10th hand as after the two bankers a perfect player wins once again. The hand was player had 1 and bankers had a two face cards.  Players third card was a 7 and bankers draw was only an Ace.  So now I am sitting there with 10 hands out.

Lost 4 Players
Won 4 Bankers
Net 2 wins and just a over even

I should have had six parlayed wins, not one doubt. Not one problem. But I fought it and tried to change it, big time.

Not over yet!  Read on. Two more bankers appear, both strong valued wins.  One was a natural and the other one reduced players to a zero and bankers took the easy win.  Now we are sitting at hand 13 coming up looking like the following:

P-BB-P-BB-P-BB-P-BB

Once again I strongly desired player, but stayed with Banker. Didn't parlay at all. In fact I reduced my bet a little bit. Player had a 4 and banker had a 5. Luckily Player drew a nine and banker won the hand. Was not a huge win but a win nonetheless. I stayed, didn't parlay and I couldn't believe what I was actually doing and how I was actually wagering. Player had a 7 and banker had a natural win. So now we are sitting at the following:

P-BB-P-BB-P-BB-P-BBBB

Sitting with 4 losses
Sitting with 10 wins reduced by 4
Net 6 wins

Please Note:  My win was not what it should have been by any means.  Which were positive progressions with a minimum of parlayed amounts, if not greater. 

Now I parlay for the 5th Banker. But a player wins. And with each hand coming I wagered for a subsequent Banker to reappear and I lost the 16th, the 17th, and the 18th hands.  Perfect matching side by side, 4 players right next to the 4 bankers. 

So now we are sitting with the following:

P-BB-P-BB-P-BB-P-BBBB-PPPP

The emotions and the frustrations are inside of myself. Yes, again something else I write about and I know extremely well. But what I am experiencing was my failure to just follow a simple pattern/trend, that was perfect, solid and could have been extremely profitable.

To me, I lost a sure and extremely easy $10,000 plus. I allowed numerous things to take over my wagering decision making. Among those were:

*  Ego
*  Emotions/Frustrations
*  Wagering for what I desired

After the 4 players won parallel to the 4 Bankers, a single banker won. Which was followed by a winning player without a second banker for the first time.

Nothing can be changed. But you can sure follow winning presentments with a handsome positive and energetic motivated play the way I look at it.

The shoe fizzled after the 20th hand with a combination of chop, 1s and 3s, ties and nothing in my book that could be followed or even wagered against with success more than winning 1 and losing several, type of results.

Sometimes I have succeeded and sometimes I have failed, but always I have taken heart from what I have experienced, accomplished or been subjected to.

Put the blinders on, tune out the wannabe fantasies and apply the correct focus employing dedicated one section/one session, combating wrongful belief against current presentments of the shoe.  Just remember, please.  Why? Because the 'anything and everything can and will happen agenda-but with absolute true and complete randomness', and that is what the highest of the highest majority will never ever figure out.  Never.

There most certainly is a path to righteousness, but it is certainly unclear exactly what that path is and how to continuously follow it.  And there is where most all on these forums, as well as at the tables, are seeking to discover and get filthy rich from.  It will never ever happen, because you can't beat randomness with mathematical science, structured into wagering triggers that will prove repetitively positive. 

• Here, a perfect quote  IMO.  Theodore Roosevelt once said about the man in the arena, "whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again because there is not effort without error and shortcoming, but who does actually strive to do the deed, who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself in a worthy cause, who at the best knows in the end the triumphs of high achievements and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly".