BetSelection.cc

Highlighted => AsymBacGuy => Topic started by: AsymBacGuy on June 28, 2019, 09:10:24 PM

Title: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 28, 2019, 09:10:24 PM
Gambling experts as well as casino's supervisors are really laughing when they read all the bighornshit we're writing about baccarat on the net.
Not mentioning the miriad of magical system sellers that for just $49.99 promise us millionaire profits.

As long as we can't (or we do not want to) demonstrate a verifiable math edge we are just fooling ourselves and the world.

That means that all efforts made to find exploitable ways to beat the house are totally worthless, confirmed by the huge profits casinos make by offering bac tables.

Probably the best player ever known in the history of baccarat was Akio Kashiwagi, a japanese real estate guru who put in some trouble mr D. Trump who gladly accepted very huge bets from him at one of his AC property.
It's ascertained Kashiwagi adopted a kind of trend following strategy by wagering a kind of flat betting approach. That is he knew very well that in order to beat a game, tax apart, one must get more winning hands than losing ones.
Furthermore, by flat betting he knew he was going to lose around 1% at worst.
Naturally Trump took advice from the best math gambling expert of the time who suggested to let him play as long as possible in order to get the negative edge fully working against him.

And actually this thing happened even though Kashiwagi (that was shot dead shortly afterwards) was still ahead in the process.

Of course even if Kashiwagi played a quite huge amount of hands but not enough to constitute a "long term" scenario by any means, we must give him some credit that his strategy was good.

To get a clearer example of what Kashiwagi did, try to flat bet 60/70 shoes and let us know how many bets you are winning or losing. Knowing that he wagered a large amount of hands dealt, the answer will be very likely placed on the negative side.

Therefore a question #1 arises: does a sophisticated trend following strategy lower in some way the math negative edge?
Was K. playing a kind of trend following strategy mixed with something else?

I have chosen to mention A.K. as it's my firm belief that in order to win one must spot more W than L situations as no progression could get the best of it when L<W, especially when wagering a lot of hands per shoe.

Truth to be told, I do not think that a strict trend following strategy could get the best of it, but I tend not to disregard such possibility at least in order to lower the negative edge.

More to come.

as.     















 



 

     

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 09, 2019, 09:38:27 PM
Indeed Kashiwagi was a brilliant player but he didn't fit to the "pros" category.

Undoubtedly around the globe there are few people who make a living by playing baccarat and they like to go unnoticed for obviuos reasons.
They are not there for gambling but to win. And not to win astronomical sums but to win. Consistently.
It's funny (euphemism) that such people wager very few spots or at least using a large spread on certain hands giving to the house the illusion of action.
Many do not care a bit about comps, they pretend not to know what a player's card is.
They do not want their play to be registered.

Despite of what many could think, casinos do not like baccarat winners and generally speaking they adopt an old statement telling that any player being ahead after playing 80 hours isn't welcome as in some way he/she surpassed the "math" test.
Well, baccarat is an unbeatable game but we never know. We (casinos) expect to win and we do want to win. Period.

The common trait of those players is they wager very few hands, almost always quitting the table after getting relatively small profits and, most importantly, they don't like to chase losses.
In the sense that after two or three losses in a row they tend to lose interest to that shoe.

It's like they are playing a kind of blackjack card counting strategy. Selecting the spots to bet, look at the outcome and keep the results whatever they are.
That is a complete different approach made by most bac players worldwide.

Now let's take the casino's part.
We know that some successful bj $20-$80 spread bet counters are going to be barred, what about the possibility that bac can be beaten by bets of $400, $500 or more?
After all so far every math expert says such thing isn't possible. Actually only side bets can be beaten mathematically.

That's the worst assumption they can make as their only hope to win money at bac tables remains upon the probability that most bac players like to gamble, that is betting a lot of hands and trying to guess the unguessable. Or that the game can be beaten by progressions. 

Remember that if any side bet is beatable, BP bets are more beatable. It's only up to us.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: Babu on July 10, 2019, 06:03:26 AM
Indeed baccarat can be beat in the long run.  This is what I have been waiting to hear.  Many spend a life time trying to find strategies to beat every shoe and guess every single hand.  Once can actually win without any strategy as long as they have a good approach.

One can randomly guess and use random size bets.   Leave when one is up and recover when down.  It takes great discipline.  Key is a huge bankroll and reasonable win expectation.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 12, 2019, 08:11:04 PM
Quote from: Babu on July 10, 2019, 06:03:26 AM
Indeed baccarat can be beat in the long run.  This is what I have been waiting to hear.  Many spend a life time trying to find strategies to beat every shoe and guess every single hand.  Once can actually win without any strategy as long as they have a good approach.

One can randomly guess and use random size bets.   Leave when one is up and recover when down.  It takes great discipline.  Key is a huge bankroll and reasonable win expectation.

Actually it's quite likely the few who make a living at this game adopt this strategy as any serious player knows that it's literally impossible to beat every single shoe or hand. I mean that even getting a verified math advantage of 2% one is going to endure inevitable harsh losing sessions.

Anyway the conclusive word would come whenever we find a long term edge by flat betting and obviously this conclusion must be strictly intended as a randomness defect.
There are no other ways to get an edge if we are playing a perfect "random" math negative game.

I got the confidence that around 80% of total live shoes are not properly shuffled or that they present intrinsic card distribution flaws, it's up to us to find how and when those features could help us.

Good post Babu.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 14, 2019, 09:09:19 PM
The theory according to which we should beat this wondeful silly game is quite simple:
even though the negative math edge remains constant, the probability of success on certain spots will be higher than expected.
This supposedly raised probability is caused by many factors:

- bad shuffles
- actual asym/sym hands ratio
- asym hands outcomes
- nature of winning points
- strong points winning or losing
- key cards producing or not a winning hand
- actual finite distribution related to the expected long term distribution
- other

In some way this theory aims to take advantage of the past in order to partially estimate the future.
Easy to see that generally speaking the more was the past assessed, better will be the chances to guess the future.

After all we need to guess right just very few spots.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 15, 2019, 01:55:00 AM
The partial unrandomness of the shoe is the main reason why we could beat this game itlr.

Such conclusion may be deduced empirically or by strict scientific methods, of course most players use the first approach as it takes a quite long work to demonstrate scientifically that any single LIVE shoe isn't true randomly generated.

Since the definition of real randomness is a complex and very debated subject and 312 or 416 cards working into an asymmetrical physical  finite model cannot be properly shuffled by any means, we know for sure that most of our bets are placed into a non perfect random world.

A pretty exhaustive proof comes from putting in motion dozens of "random walks" applied to the same outcomes springing from the same shoe and then repeating the process for the next shoes.

Therefore what we tend to classify as a "normal deviation" happening into a single shoe is instead a unrandom product working at various degrees.

It's quite surprisingly that some successful players I know can ascertain that by just watching at what is happening, still the common denominator (without exception) is that they play very few hands.

People who make a living at games want to wager upon the probability that something isn't going to happen and not that distant probabilities come in their favor.

We see that the goal to make a tiny profit per a given series of shoes isn't a so appealing task to most bac players.
That's why they are entitled to lose forever and fortunately this is the reason why the game is still alive.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on July 15, 2019, 05:50:58 PM
Any of the table games can have a tiny profit more often than a larger one.  Of course, 'tiny' and 'larger' or both subjective to whatever amount each player is dealing with.  But for comparison, say buying in with $1,000.00 playing with $25.00/$50.00 wagers would be relatively easier to walk away quickly with a $50.00 or even a $100.00 win than it would be to walk away with a $2,500.00 or a $3,000.00 win wagering the same amounts. 

Of course as you mentioned, problems arise when the players repeatably wager for additional wins consistently using whatever method of wagering they are subscribing to, etc.

The larger the wins, the larger the wagering units---usually lead most players to attempting the continued win or additional wins within a relatively short period of time after the initial session wins.  Easy to talk about here, harder to realize when you are table side and engaged in wagering as Lungyeh pointed out previously.

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 18, 2019, 09:27:05 PM
You are absolutely correct.

The main problem is that we can't expect to get consistent profits from a negative edge game, let alone huge profits.
What we can do is trying to exploit the game's flaws and, fortunately, there are many of them.

Math needs some time to fully take its power, we should act in the same way by opposite reasons.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 20, 2019, 02:06:01 AM
One thing for sure.

The probability to win itlr playing a random EV- game (even if taking into account that bac is a finite and card dependent propositon) is zero.

There's no way to "read randomness", maybe to grasp some hints about the partial unrandomness of the game.
 
Only unrandomness, when properly assessed, could enlarge the probablity of success on certain spots.
And the best way to estimate such possible unrandomness is to study several different random walks applied to the main outcomes.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 30, 2019, 09:08:05 PM
One of the best tool to confirm or deny that this game is really beatable is to put on one side a real live bettor and on the other one a mechanical player who places the bets in a perfect randomly fashion (for example wagering B if the previous first card hand was red or P if it was black).
Of course the first player will get a slight less disadvantage if he happen to bet only Banker side but we know this isn't the strategy to win itlr. So we assume that even the first player will proportionally place his bets 50/50.   

Mathematicians, experts, etc, will say there will be no difference in the final outcomes of both players. That means that both players build two different random walks getting the same long term disadvantage.

Therefore the only way to suppose a possible edge of player #1 is to study the hands distribution, trying to grasp hints of the previous outcomes in order to guess future hands by a better than 50/50 ratio.
In a word, player #1 tries to partially transform a random game into a unrandom game, a luxury denied to player #2 who must "passively" place his bets.

Now say that besides his own plan, the first player can take into account what happens to player #2.
Considering each shoe, most of the times player #2 outcomes will flow with relatively low pattern deviations, in few situations player #2 will find himself into a strong positive or negative territory.



as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 31, 2019, 01:06:21 AM
I know that eminent experts as M. Shakleford, E. Jacobsen, J. May are laughing at me when I'm presenting those ideas,  but I can assure you by 1 trillion certainty that this fkng game can be beat on B/P hands with an astounding positive edge.

Simply put, they do not know what to look for. 

as.

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: Albalaha on July 31, 2019, 09:50:38 AM
@Asymbacguy,
              If you can play with any logic that can be told and made to understand to others too, it can be tested, programmed and played mechanically too. If you play with any gifted capacity of precognition that you are unable to transfer to others, it can neither be transferred nor anybody else can imitate ever. So, let us all know in which way, you "think" it is beatable?
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: BEAT-THE-WHEEL on July 31, 2019, 01:18:58 PM
Gentlemen,
I think the keyword,

"be patient and wait for the probabilities to work..."

Thus a pro will wait, or play flat bet..virtually, til harsh losing or "harsh winning  ", happened, that against the math holy HE....say, 5, 6, 7, or 10% winning or losing...
and then bet the reversed, faithfully for that  harsh to succumbed to the holy math house edge
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 08, 2019, 10:35:22 PM
Quote from: Albalaha on July 31, 2019, 09:50:38 AM
@Asymbacguy,
              If you can play with any logic that can be told and made to understand to others too, it can be tested, programmed and played mechanically too. If you play with any gifted capacity of precognition that you are unable to transfer to others, it can neither be transferred nor anybody else can imitate ever. So, let us all know in which way, you "think" it is beatable?

The logic is pretty simple but quite complicated to be put in practice.
And unfortunately I can't read randomness, the only one capable to do that is gizmotron.

No one mechanical system can work into an EV- game unless is capable to pass all the "unfortunate" situations that could come along after thousands and thousands of trials.
Nonetheless we know for sure that a large part of different random walks will be winners at the end of the shoe.
We do not know how much they will be winners but they surely will.

On the other end and for obvious reasons, on average a larger random walks part is going to lose no matter what.

Have to run. later.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 09, 2019, 08:48:01 PM
Only people featuring two neurons but no neurotrasmitter could think to beat a EV- random game (Junketamine King is the first on the list).
Especially if such people keep thinking that every single baccarat decision will be a random 50/50 proposition.

That's why one of the best tools we could use is to put in action several random walks working by different parameters, this in order to really ascertain if the outcomes' distribution is really random or not.

It's mathematicallly certain that only unrandom distributions working into a EV- game can be beaten itlr.

And it's funny to see that some (rare) brilliant players have realized that empirically just by long term observations.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 11, 2019, 09:01:31 PM
Randomness definition is a quite complicated issue, many think that flipping a fair coin is a valid example of randomness but it isn't.

The real problem gamblers have to face is to ascertain whether the outcomes are simple products of a random unbeatable generation or if they are affected in some way by unrandom features.
   
Of course and that's where  the problem stands, itlr different unrandom generations tend to converge forming random results. So we can easily think that a long succession of different baccarat results will fall no distant from the expected values.
And this conclusion is totally correct.

Moreover, it's a total waste of time to think to beat a so called perfect random software production (baccarat buster, etc) or, even worse, to test a given method into a succession of live outcomes coming out from different sources.

For obvious reasons, a possible unrandomness should be always assessed in a situation where a large number of constant parameters is fulfilled. 
The final decisive role is played by key cards distribution and nothing else.
And since any card counting tool isn't going to give us any help, we must put in action several r.w. that must reflect such distribution, even though being approximated.

In conclusion, baccarat is beatable if we can estimate at a decent value that the shoe we're playing is affected by some unrandomness, otherwise we are losing money.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on August 12, 2019, 01:59:13 AM
"The real problem gamblers have to face is to ascertain whether the outcomes are simple products of a random unbeatable generation or if they are affected in some way by unrandom features."

Absolutely!
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 22, 2019, 09:31:19 PM
In few days I'll try to explain how a possible unrandomness could be the key to beat this game.

If you think that baccarat could be beaten you are reading the right pages.

as.





Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 30, 2019, 09:10:38 PM
Instead of thinking about outcomes we should focus about cards distribution.
Do not forget that a large portion of hands will be resolved by the first four cards dealt alternatively.
For example, if we could bet about getting at least a natural point on either side this game wouldn't exist as a large part of hands will be determined right after the first cards are dealt.
We do not know which side will be kissed by such natural but we know that more than 1/3 of the time this event will happen.
Notice that when a natural will land, the game is a perfect coin flip proposition, meaning that there's no point to bet Banker. That is we're betting a zero negative edge game either on Player bets and on Banker bets at EZ tables.

Of course naturals are more likely when formed by a ten-8 or ten-9 combination than by the other card possibilities and 8s and 9s favor Banker only when dealt as fifth card (asym hands).
Therefore when we think that the next four cards will contain at least one of the possible 64 8s/9s, we know that it's more likely to get a natural.

Now, each of the all possible 64 cards rank will be distributed asymmetrically and the more such asymmetricity will be present better is the probability to assess their impact over the next outcomes.
And aces, 2s or 3s, for example, will involve a larger less impact than other key cards because they are going to produce more drawing hands than standing hands.
No way itlr a drawing hand will be favorite to win, especially at Player side.
But as players we are forced to work into an infinite succession of finite distributions.

After long tests made on live shoes compared to pc generated shoes, we've found that the more the key ranks are asymmetrically distributed, better are the chances to guess which side will be favorite to win on very few spots.

It's like as a given pattern should be more due than expected and obviously such thing cannot happen per every shoe dealt.

Thus the main problem is concentrated to spot the shoes which are really playable and neglect those which aren't.
And the fortune of casinos is that 99.99% of bac players want to guess every shoe dealt no fkng matter what.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 31, 2019, 01:43:24 AM
Itlr key cards are dealt asymmetrically by any means.
Itlr drawing hands and standing/naturals points are dealt asymmetrically by any means.

Itlr any four card point higher than the opposite four card point is going to win by a nearly 2:1 ratio and, of course, is dealt asymmetrically.

Itlr any third card helping or not the Player side is dealt asymmetrically and the same is true about the sixth card. 

Besides the original increasing order made manually, per any deck different ranks are dealt asymmetrically.

Baccarat is a game of constant asymmetricity working at different values.

as.







 



 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: Dilon on September 01, 2019, 01:53:46 AM
Nice Asym!
Please continue.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 01, 2019, 09:11:48 PM
Hi Dilon, thanks!  ;)

Let's take the shoe as a succession of fresh decks, the card distribution is A,2,3,4,5....K
We'll deal the cards in a baccarat game.

First hand: Player A, 3  Banker 2,4  drawing card is 5. Player wins by 9 over B 6.
Second hand: Player 6, 8  Banker 7, 9.  drawing card is a 10. Banker wins with a 6.
Third hand: Player J, K  Banker Q, A. Drawing cards are 2 and 3. Banker wins with 4 vs P 2.
Fourth hand: Player 4, 6  Banker 5, 7. drawing cards are 8 and 9. Player wins with 8 vs 1.
Fifth hand: Player 10, Q banker J, K. Drawing cards are A and 2. Banker wins with 2 vs 1.
Sixth hand: Player 3,5 Banker 4,6. Player wins by a natural 8.
Seventh hand: 7, 9 Banker 8, 10  Banker wins with a natural 8.
Eight hand: Player J, K Banker Q-A  Drawing cards are 2 and 3. Banker wins with 4 vs 2.
After this hand the process repeats infinitely up to the end of the shoe.

Let's see what happened in those eight hands:

P
B
B
P
B
P
B
B


We see that only hand #2 produced an asymmetrical hand and such probability is way larger than expected (12.5% vs the real 8.4%).

The increasing rank order of the deck of course helps the side acting last (Banker) but it's more interesting to notice what an homogeneous rank distribution (13/13) will act in terms of outcomes even though the cards are not featuring a perfect increasing order.

as. 

   







             

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: Lungyeh on September 02, 2019, 04:02:17 AM
Bro, I really tried to comprehend your approach over the years but truth be told, it?s intellectually beyond me.

From your examples given, in real life could you predict what card sequences will take place in the subsequent hand and then bet accordingly?

Please forgive me ignorance. Stay blessed, you and yours
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 09, 2019, 08:55:16 PM
Hi dear Lungyeh.

Imo and according to my studies there are only two kind of favourable card distributions for the players:

- an astounding homogeneously rank distribution or

- a heavy key cards distribution shifting to one side.

Notice that I'm not talking about real outcomes as itsr (in the short run) they could take whimsical shapes.
Thus I'm focusing about ranks and key cards.
Everything falling in between will act in house's favor itlr, no matter if we are lucky, geniuses or whatever.

Now, it's virtually impossible to physically put ranks and key cards for long not belonging to one of those two categories, a thing that only a software can do.

Fortunately at the time I'm writing CSM and manually shuffled shoes can't refrain to produce favourable card distributions, especially CSM as when the same deck is "biased" it remains biased for at least 2-3 more shoes.
Of course that doesn't mean that the same deck is going to produce the same outcomes' lines.

At high stakes rooms where each deck is fresh, house will get a higher advantage over the players and it's not a coincidence that some serious players want to bet very few hands or not at all if things are not fitting their plan.

We can bet everything we have on our name that it's quite easy to spot the players who make a living at this game: they perfectly adhere to the black jack rule where no mid-entry is allowed as they'll join the table from the start.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 11, 2019, 09:07:04 PM
Dr B. Kaiser magistrally stated in his book that
people who make their living at numbers are always more comfortable dealing with the high likelihood of something's not happening than the slim chance of a rare event's occurring

In some sense, rarity works for casinos as give the players the illusion to beat the game (bac players like to bet toward long homogenous situations) and common events work for serious and patient players unless rarity come out.

Therefore in order to consistently win we must restrict the rarity appearance trying to take advantage of the most likely situations.

And only an accurate card distribution study could help us to define better the issue. 

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 20, 2019, 08:52:40 PM
I know at least a dozen of players making a living at this game and the common trait is they make very few bets. Some of them know a 0.1% of what me and you know about the game, yet they are long term winners.
Mathematically this move is sound. Since the game remains EV-, the probability to be ahead of something will be higher when betting very few hands, say that the best move is to wager everything only one time.
If in this precise instant every bac player in the world will wager Banker, casinos will lose money as B>P even though Banker is payed less than 1:1.
After this hypothetical hand, casinos will win money no matter what.
Obviously if casinos will lose money, players will get something of it.

And altogether obvious is the fact that the more we stay and play the better we are liked by casinos.

Ask the casinos if they would like to fade ten $20.000 wagers made on ten different occasions or if they'd like more ten $20k hands made on the same session.
Mathematically it doesn't change their expectation. In practical terms this simple different approach means a lot.

More on that later.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on September 22, 2019, 01:46:36 PM
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on September 20, 2019, 08:52:40 PM

I know at least a dozen of players making a living at this game and the common trait is they make very few bets. Some of them know a 0.1% of what me and you know about the game, yet they are long term winners. (Anything is possible, simpler is easier.  However, as you and most other know, I have written extensively about the casinos, the psych, the downfalls, the players mind frames and control, etc., etc.  Lots of things come into play and yet, very few of us realize what actually influence us in making decisions at the table.  One of the easiest and most successful betting selections in Bac is 3 and out.  Waiting for that 3rd repeat B or P and wagering for the cut.  If a person has a decent bank roll, he can snatch up so many 3 or even 4 and outs, than probably anything else, IMO at the Bac table.  But of course the person must be prepared to do a negative Marty for one or two or three or four additional bets.  Coming up across a 7 or 8 or 9 or 10 or 11 repeating B or P streak is usually not the case in every shoe.  Agreed?  However it does happen and if a person proceeds to do a negative Marty against same, it is easily a wipe out and hard and long to make up the loss.  Each of us play different and each of us have different experiences and thoughts on the game.)

Mathematically this move is sound. Since the game remains EV-, the probability to be ahead of something will be higher when betting very few hands, say that the best move is to wager everything only one time. (Yes fewer is better for the base win and a win of chips for a person to feel good about and play off of, but all that depends once again, on frame of mind, control, expectations and overall psych of the player.  Again, so much comes into play and contributes to the persons thought process, not just the bet selection.  We are all or at least most of us, influenced by numerous things at the table.  Easy to talk about here, harder at the table to apply it all and walk with small or initial winnings.)

If in this precise instant every bac player in the world will wager Banker, casinos will lose money as B>P even though Banker is payed less than 1:1. ( What do you mean paid less?  Are you referring to 5% commission?  If you are, not very hard to find an EZ Bac, or other commission free game any longer in most all casinos in the USA.  Some do not have that but across the street or down the street does.)

After this hypothetical hand, casinos will win money no matter what. (Depends on how long and how intense and what the persons goals are in playing.  The player (if this is what you are referring to) that plays relentlessly for the pot of gold each and every time, will lose far greater than what he will win if he plays long hours, every day, day in and day out, IMO.  There might be a very trivial few that can survive long hours at a casino each and every day, and win or at least break even on a long tern and a consistent everyday basis.  Again, IMO.)

Obviously if casinos will lose money, players will get something of it. (Please see the attached link.  Of course some will come on here and other boards, coping and pasting detailed defenses to what I am about to post, but no one knows the financial position of the players.  Some might have lost far greater than those wins and yet others, might be ahead of the game.  It depends on a persons wagering amounts and time played in comparison to your wins and losses.  Unfortunately for most all players, I DID NOT SAY ALL, I said most all, will wager larger and harder once they begin to lose a session and that is their downfall.  As well, the have almost zero management skills as to current and instant win money they happened to capitalize on).

LINK>>>    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-28/wynn-resorts-macau-casino-books-staggering-black-swan-gambling-loss

And altogether obvious is the fact that the more we stay and play the better we are liked by casinos. (Yes, and that is the huge suck in and hold for most players, especially their first several years of playing.)

Ask the casinos if they would like to fade ten $20.000 wagers made on ten different occasions or if they'd like more ten $20k hands made on the same session. (It does not matter to the casino.  They account for it by the table min.  Most places, I SAID MOST, so people do not challenge, the average table min for a $20k wager is going to be $300 to $500.  Some casino properties might be different, but the average goes, $25/$50 to $5,000, $100 to $10k, $200 to $15k, $300/$500 to $20k/$25k off the street no front money table limits.  There are some properties that might vary, but that is the average). 


Mathematically it doesn't change their expectation. In practical terms this simple different approach means a lot.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 22, 2019, 08:45:49 PM
Thanks for your inputs Al, I need time to respond.

Generally speaking, by now I'm only attending HS rooms where players like to follow any kind of pattern, mostly "human" WL patterns. That is they care more about the various players' destiny than what the display shows.

And it's not a coincidence that every long term winner won't place any money on side bets.
In some way I tend to disagree with that.

as. 

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 23, 2019, 02:05:11 AM
Pro players take fully advantage from the "time" factor. The same thing why the house is getting enormous profits: time.
Itlr favourable situations to the player will arise no matter the math disadvantage, say that after four resolved hands (no ties), if we put in action 16 players wagering 16 different patterns we know for sure that two of them will get respectively a 4-hand winning or losing streak, the remaining players will get at least one winning or losing hand.

Of course that's based on the law of averages that in practical terms never apply to any game, otherwise casinos wouldn't exist. But it's just a matter of time and values will correspond more and more to such proportions.

In a sense, bac pro players wouldn't give a damned fk about the math disadvantage as they know very well that house cannot hope to get the perfect opposite situations capable to destroy every player's selection for long.
For long.

The same for the player's expectation. For long.

Now we should set up our plan in two ways. Either we want to fight with the house by betting that outcomes will come out more deviated than expected (and naturally we'll privilege the deviated side) or that things will more or less come out according to their probability.

To assess what to bet, meaning which lines will be more likely or not (in terms of probability of success) we have put in action 100 different random walks working on each shoe emphasizing what we named a "limited random walk" category. And time plays a huge role, especially when limited by a finite card distribution.

Differently to the random walk concept described in P. Griffin book, for example, at baccarat any random walk will be hugely affected by a finite card distribution and by the asymmetrical force acting here and there on the shoe.

We may infer that most part of random walks are not following a perfect 50/50 proposition not only because on average one side gets a 15.86% advantage on 8.6% portion of total hands, but as finite card ranks are whimsically placed along the same shoe and not favoring deeply one side or another.

That's why a simple card counting strategy won't get the player any substantial help, even though is made by a sophisticated software.

In fact, a simple card counting strategy is just a form of one simple random walk getting deep deviations and almost always no valuable predictivity.

To say the truth, the so called "baccarat perfect strategy" presented in some books is just bighornshi.t and not only because it will make insignificant profits.
We better adopt a silly "follow the lucky or contrast the unlucky" betting strategy (when it seems to be applicable) as at least it will involve more than one random walk.

The partial unrandomness of the shoe, a well known factor by almost every pro player, remains the main factor why this game may be beatable itlr.
At baccarat there are no hunches or superstition or supernatural forces working, cards are there and the fact that some players seem to guess right or wrong for long must be interpreted just as a natural product of a random walk.

I mean that time remains a huge factor to try to get an advantage, but if cards are perfectly or almost perfectly shuffled we are wasting money and that's why I stress about the importance to not play some shoes or to wager very few hands per shoe.   

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: WALKINGMAN on September 26, 2019, 01:51:16 AM
Thus the main problem is concentrated to spot the shoes which are really playable and neglect those which aren't.

Hi Asymbacguy,

I am walkingman this is my first post in this forum,  I would like to share my style of play ot everybody hopefully  i can contribute  my experience excuse on my english im not good at it.   Here how I play

My MM is mild fibonacci and mild Marti and sometime  1112222233333 I got it from GG forum.
BS : DBL ZZ/  fixed Template BBP , My prime BS 4 trigger bets

Sample of  my one trigger bets is  the three opposite then  bet  same same opposite then use  three separate bank progression each of  the trigger pattern,  have  a small goal . and the most important don't stay  one table once you win  a bet move to other table.  four trigger bets will never be equal in appearance so other may loss but the remaining is your profit.  I strictly play short time If get my 10 units goal in 2 shoe it will be bye bye.   as frankie said  I do it in my way  ( from ITS MY LIFE BY BON JOVI)  My favorite rock band. Believe this is a very good method to play

Walking man
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 30, 2019, 01:34:45 AM
Welcome and thanks for sharing.

In the short run every method seems to be good mostly as players try to raise the probability of success in every way (progressions, bet selection widely intended, following or not trends or lucky/unlucky players, etc) but itlr every attempt will be of no avail to consistently win.
We need more than that.

For example we have been playing successfully "for long" a very simple method: we simply bet that a new Banker hand was followed by another single Banker hand (that is betting B after PB) utilizing a 1-2-4 progression.
Anytime this progression failed (meaning that a cluster of three or more B singles appeared) and whenever a new B streak trigger came out, we raised our standard unit to 2, now wagering 2-4-8, then 4-8-16 and so on until the deficit was proportionally and slowly recovered step by step.

Even if it could sound as silly, this system has a math foundation as itlr PBB>PBP, B streaks are more likely than B singles, isolated B singles are more likely than clustered B singles and so on.

In a word and even taking into account the vig burden, the probability to be ahead of something along the way is close to 100%.

Notice that patterns as BPPPPBPPPBPPBPBP....will produce "just" three losses as the betting is stopped until a new B streak comes out.
If you test your data you'll see that a two-step martingale failing won't come out so often and of course you need a kind of balancement to get a consistent long term profit.

The main problem to overcome is to get a decent distribution of winning and losing shoes, nonetheless is just a matter of time to recover any deficit.

But if you look more carefully to those shoes producing a lot of B singles clusters and few B streaks you'll see a kind of cluster-cluster effect.
The reason is because such shoes will present few asymmetrical hands, asymmetrical hands went "wrong" for B side, B drawing hands were more predominant than standing hands, fifth card was mostly belonging to the 3,4,5,6,7 category.
Easy to notice that itlr a perfect world would contain a minor whole amount of such situations.

On average asym hands impact on the whole shoe is 8.4%, on asym hands B gets a 15.86% advantage, B drawing hands are inferior to B standing hands, fifth card is more likely to be a not 3,4,5,6,7 rank category (1:1.6 ratio).
Moreover any two card point higher than the opposite side is going to win about 2/3 of the times.

Similarly to what happens in other games, we should think baccarat as a game of ranges and not in term of exact outcomes.
That's why the shuffling issue is of utmost importance as it's one trillion impossible to guess right into a random distribution. 

In some way a proper shuffle judgement is even a better indicator than edge sorting as we want to beat the game legally and, more importantly, we want to be payed after our winning sessions (with all due respect to the baccarat queen Cheung Yin Sun).

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: WALKINGMAN on September 30, 2019, 05:13:23 AM
Thanks,

Most player  is  will for play like for entertainment,  I will try to  win in  short time as much as possible   im using DBL ZZ   1/16  /BBP  1/8  fixed  with trigger  if lost  then I will bet   4  times  add some parlay it will easy to recover of my base bet using   DBL ZZ  I play to win in sequence not every  decision  .  with small goal  once my bankroll  achieved comes from Casino tray that is the  time I will attacked using my time and another strategy  hitting them in &  out navigating for more triggers   aiming for  small goal .  I have to be patience of my for triggers / strategy  using  4 level of money management.    75 %  comes from  patience and discipline  to defeat baccarat  only to 25 % on how much and how  bet  we selection in the table.  that is i found out in practice.  We cannot use math in practice  to play baccarat  since it  is random    I strictly play to 2 shoes as much as possible to in order to fight  with equal mental strength of the dealer so  to execute my strategy . 

Walkingman
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: roversi13 on October 02, 2019, 05:55:24 AM
I have been playing for long period B after PB(looking for double B) or B after BP (looking for single P),that are the two more frequent decisions.
Bad results!
I didn't find any difference between these two attacks and playing B all the time.
Why a difference should exist?
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: Albalaha on October 02, 2019, 02:28:12 PM
QuoteFor example we have been playing successfully "for long" a very simple method: we simply bet that a new Banker hand was followed by another single Banker hand (that is betting B after PB) utilizing a 1-2-4 progression.
Anytime this progression failed (meaning that a cluster of three or more B singles appeared) and whenever a new B streak trigger came out, we raised our standard unit to 2, now wagering 2-4-8, then 4-8-16 and so on until the deficit was proportionally and slowly recovered step by step.

Interesting but did you ever simulate this way of playing? Banker is not a good bet for martingale. 5% commission works worst on the banker with martingale. If we lose 1-2-4, i.e 7 units, with 2 units we have fair chances of recovery but if we get many successive losses or more successive series losses than wins, bet could go dangerous. These two vital aspects should not be forgotten.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: roversi13 on October 02, 2019, 03:59:41 PM
Albalaha,you are right as far as a martingale of several terms is concerned.
According with my experience a three terms martingale is acceptable,also for recovery
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 04, 2019, 09:14:42 PM
Quote from: Albalaha on October 02, 2019, 02:28:12 PM
Interesting but did you ever simulate this way of playing? Banker is not a good bet for martingale. 5% commission works worst on the banker with martingale. If we lose 1-2-4, i.e 7 units, with 2 units we have fair chances of recovery but if we get many successive losses or more successive series losses than wins, bet could go dangerous. These two vital aspects should not be forgotten.

Of course we have simulated this approach and the flaw was just about the verb "simulate".
As long as we do not play or test our method on live shoes we are not doing us a favor.
And as you can easily deduce, we didn't play every single shoe dealt.

Improper shuffles will cut off a lot of possible combinations, naturally we must focus about the asymmetrical hands pace forming the Banker advantage.
For example, the main target to get the best asym hand is a Banker 5 point and there are only two ways to form a 5 point: 5-ten value card and, less likely, 4-A, 3-2.
That is we need a fair amount of 5s falling on the first two B cards.
Then among the best asym hands, there is the Banker 4 point. Here to build this point Banker gets a 4-ten value card and 3-A and 2-2 possibilities. Notice that 3-2 hasn't the same probability than 2-2.
In a sense we should get a kind of help if along with many other factors we want to track 5s and 4s falling here or there on the first two initial cards.
Historically 4s and 5s were considered as Player helping cards but they really are only when they are distributed as fifth card when the hand dictates the P side to draw. Naturally a 4 or a 5 as sixth card remains a good card even for the Banker.   

Anyway you are correct that the 5% vig may worsen any multilayered progression, yet Banker is always working by a 1.24% long term probability mathematical advantage.
Imo the key is just to estimate the range of spots when B is REALLY more likely than P or, at a lesser degree, the range of spots when P is working by an almost perfect 50/50 untaxed and fair proposition (knowing that as long as no asym hand can be formed, some card distributions will help this side with a better 50/50 ratio).

Nonetheless I'm 100% sure that there's no way to control any shoe dealt, no matter how many random walks working for us we want to put in action.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 05, 2019, 03:11:27 AM
Quote from: roversi13 on October 02, 2019, 05:55:24 AM
I have been playing for long period B after PB(looking for double B) or B after BP (looking for single P),that are the two more frequent decisions.
Bad results!
I didn't find any difference between these two attacks and playing B all the time.
Why a difference should exist?

Hi roversi!

The probability of the so called "more likely outcomes" is strongly related to the actual card distribution. Not every shoe is playable.
In order to get a strong advantage, we need to play only badly shuffled shoes.

Recently we've set up a marvelous $500-$20.000 spread betting action at a high end casino acting as pure drunk clowns and where a mate was previously treated really bad and looking for revenge.
Ask how things went after a 13-hour playing session.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 10, 2019, 07:14:19 AM
No matter how smart we are and how deeply we have studied the game, if we consider bac outcomes as pure random propositions we know that after playing 2/3 of the total hands of each shoe, after 5 shoes dealt the probability to be ahead of something is very small.
Up to the point that whenever a player is ahead of something (without having wagered any side bet) only two things happened: either he was getting a positive variance or, more likely, he was betting EV+ spots by a proper spread betting.

Since there's no way to overcome a negative edge working into a random game by a spread betting strategy, we must infer that acute players make some "low" bets just for the illusion of action, let's say only for comp purposes.

In a word, if baccarat is beatable is because itlr we will get the  best of it by a flat betting strategy.
That is some spots are slightly more likely than others.

And, again, this thing is only possible whether cards are not properly shuffled.

Discard the random world and ride the situations when a kind of unrandom world happens.
Sometimes this could be done coincidentally.
We prefer to do it scientifically.

as. 

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: roversi13 on October 10, 2019, 09:27:43 AM
When are you sure that you are facing a bad shuffling?
During the shoe?During the shuffling itself?
It's depends on the permanence or on the lazy croupier?
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: Lungyeh on October 10, 2019, 07:20:04 PM
Asymbac, is there a target amount that one wins and then stops? Say if one goes in with 5,000 what would be the recommended bet amount per hand and the recommended target win amount before you stop? For you.

Thanks.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 13, 2019, 09:47:25 PM
Quote from: Lungyeh on October 10, 2019, 07:20:04 PM
Asymbac, is there a target amount that one wins and then stops? Say if one goes in with 5,000 what would be the recommended bet amount per hand and the recommended target win amount before you stop? For you.

Thanks.

Hi Lungyeh!

No way we should set up a winning goal whenever a shoe is astoundingly playable.
Our rule is to keep betting and betting, stop comes after we'll lose two or three (in the latter case whether we've won a lot) hands in a row.

If I had to put in play a $5000 bankroll, I'd make $400 or $500 standard wagers, i want to guess right by risking 10-12 units or so. Of course my betting is extremely diluted and shoe-depending.
   
Extremely favourable shoes are not coming around the corner, but they are still quite likely.
In our over selected random walks multiparameter action (very difficult to put in action without the use of an illegal device that, btw, we never used), we have assessed that strong favourable shoes are coming out at a 1:3 ratio. 
In the real world I assess that such ratio is lowered to 1:4.

In conclusion I'd say that it's not what we want to win per every session played but just how will be the probability to cross those strong favourable shoes.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 13, 2019, 09:48:42 PM
Roversi, I'll try to respond to you later.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 14, 2019, 02:11:33 AM
Quote from: roversi13 on October 10, 2019, 09:27:43 AM
When are you sure that you are facing a bad shuffling?
During the shoe?During the shuffling itself?
It's depends on the permanence or on the lazy croupier?

Almost every shoe dealt is bad shuffled, unfortunately this feature won't get the player any help in many instances.
Thus it's not how bad is shuffled an entire shoe that matters, instead it's how bad a shoe is shuffled in some portions of the deck.

Itlr bac outcomes are strictly related to the actual distribution of key cards, falling here or there yet forming some more or less likely sequences.
Obviously nothing is more likely than the counterpart unless a strong unrandomness went in place (of course this may happen even into a perfect random environment coincidentally).

At any rate, the shuffling moves made by a live dealer or a CSM working on the same deck will produce the best opportunities to catch the situations where unrandomness will reign.
Notice that 100% of the CSM decks are dealt alternatively (meaning that two different entire decks are shuffled each time).
Of course where a CSM isn't working, it's virtually impossible that a live dealer will shuffle the cards in a perfect random fashion.

At HS tables (where most money is collected by casinos), decks are presented pre-shuffled and slight manually shuffled after, therefore the situation is more unclear.
Should players fear a close to a perfect random shuffle?
No way.
Unless cards are arranged by a software, perfect randomness will get no place into an 8-deck shoe.
The casinos' fortune is because players want to win too much in the wrong place or to win per every shoe dealt, an impossible task by any means.

That means that whether we're properly selecting the playable shoes and the favourable spots,  baccarat is 1 trillion percent beatable scientifically by a close to 0% probability error.

Just as decks are not perfectly shuffled.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 18, 2019, 09:06:37 PM
Any method can't work whether we are going to consider each shoe dealt as perfect randomly shuffled.
It's our interest to know that itlr unrandom shuffled shoes will tend to produce "random" results, that is that short term deviations are attributed to the simple variance's action.
It should be our duty to catch the situations where this unrandomness will take place most.
Never globally, always in relationship to the actual shoe we're observing/playing.

It's 100% certain that players making a living at this game won't bet the first hands of a shoe and never enter the game without having observed the cards pace.
I mean they are not focused about outcomes but about cards falling and actual situations.
Key cards, obviously.
And of course drawing and standing and third card nature situations (say successions).

More on that later.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 20, 2019, 09:47:09 PM
So it seems that baccarat can be beaten by a strict mechanical bet selection, the name of this wonderful site..... :thumbsup:
At least it's what my multiple years tests say that I've completed yesterday.

Probably some people play an EV+ game by using other tools, the main being long term experience, I just prefer to do things scientifically as much as possible. 

Summarizing.

Certain (rare) baccarat hands give the player a sure edge, meaning that the same situation repeatedly bet and bet and bet by the same amount will provide a very interesting edge (not bighornsh.it edges as "perfect pc play" or stuff like that) .

Since I'm not a baby in the wood when talking about baccarat, I can only attribute this success to the partial unrandomness of the shufflings.
That is I'm strongly convinced that randomness working into a math negative edge game cannot be beaten, especially by a flat betting strategy, the cardinal feature to know if we're doing good or not.

Cards are arranged to give certain outcomes, it's impossible to guess which side will be favorite to win, but either the distribution of outcomes and the expected values could help us to know whether there's a shuffling very close to randomness or anything else.
To emphasize the importance of this topic, say that "Casino War" game it's 100% beatable whether any card is dealt without any further shuffle and offered with a proper deck penetration, And in the real world you'll never find conditions like that.

Of course Casino War is a perfect symmetrical game, meaning that no other asymmetrical factors will intervene in the process.
Obviously players can only bet their side, that is just one side.

Baccarat is not a perfect high card game, as occasionally (8.4% of the times) one side takes the third card according to the rules and mathematically advantaging it.
Therefore we have two different basic random walks working on the same shoe: the symmetrical probability and the asymmetrical probability.
To say the truth a third probability will show up, the tie probability that slightly tend to disrupt some more likely situations. Especially when a large amount of shoes is utilized.

The tie interference provides quite a burden as tie probability is hugely endorsed whenever 6 cards are used to resolve one hand.

More later

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: Lungyeh on October 28, 2019, 02:34:49 AM
Asymbac, in this Marina Bay Sands casino in Singapore, they have 2 Baccarat tables where after every hand, the cards are put back into the shuffling machine to be reshuffled and dealt again. There is no break, no end of shoe or change of card. Customers do not get to touch the cards. The dealer opens the cards and handle the cards. They change the whole 6 decks after say &-10 hours and the process repeats itself.

Is this a better chance to win?
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 28, 2019, 10:03:07 PM
Sorry Lungyeh, I've cleared some of my inappropriate posts, I have nothing against MBS in Singapore or any other casino in the world for that matter.

Back to your question.

Baccarat tables offering continuos shuffling are a totally different beast.

Of course when proper conditions are met, any card game is beatable by definition.
If outcomes are provided by a CSM, the issue is more complicated as any hand is a new hand springing from a fresh deck. Maybe certain card tracking techniques could work.
I suggest to search the CSM topic at Black Jack forums.

Anyway and even though the card removal effect is zero, CSMs still work physically.
We need to collect a lot of CSM data acting on the same deck and then filtering the results by a multiparameter factor. Then to analyze if a kind of substantial unrandomness shows up after a given succession of cards (specific ranks).

My guess is that CSM decks are either totally unbeatable or, less less likely, wonderfully beatable (that is more beatable than normal live shoes).

For sure many bac players like to touch (say destroy) the cards so I do not expect much success from CSM tables.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 29, 2019, 10:08:36 AM
I've contacted a couple of peers confirming that CSM shuffled shoes are unbeatable.

Therefore the new thread title is "why bac could be beatable itlr PROVIDING CARDS ARE PLAYED UP TO THE END OF THE SHOE"

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: Albalaha on October 30, 2019, 09:35:50 AM
In all my experiences, shoes doesn't matter. One must know how to play in good, bad and worst cases as randomness will throw all to us. We can't get a "better than all" bet with any way to pick our bet.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on October 30, 2019, 10:09:17 AM
Sure you can and if you convince yourself otherwise you will miss all the great opportunities.  Shoes you are able to capitalize on for many reasons you will lose out on it's as simple as that. The one main problem as what was brought out already is that people convince themselves that those same opportunities will always repeat themselves when they will not.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 31, 2019, 09:21:04 PM
Quote from: Albalaha on October 30, 2019, 09:35:50 AM
In all my experiences, shoes doesn't matter. One must know how to play in good, bad and worst cases as randomness will throw all to us. We can't get a "better than all" bet with any way to pick our bet.

It depends about what we want to assign to the randomness definition.
The fact that most of bac players think that any shoe is randomly produced doesn't mean that it is really randomly formed.
Or, even worse, that some more likely situations (B streaks vs B singles, etc) are more due in humanly considered intervals. 

Randomness takes a primary importance in relation to probability calculus as probability needs pure random propositions to be properly assessed.

Itlr unrandom events will dilute more and more up to the point where infinite unrandom results will converge to supposedly random results.

Therefore imo there's no way we can't limit pure randomness, instead we should find the spots where the unrandomness takes a so huge impact that the negative math edge we have to face is overcome within short terms.

Key word is "collective", a term coined by the best randomness expert of all times.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on November 02, 2019, 10:19:18 PM
Attempts made to try to read randomness are totally futile, better to spot the situations where unrandomness could take a substantial role.
And to get a better idea of what a shoe is producing we must think in term of ranges of probability.

Mathematically our best move to get ahead of something into a supposedly random world is to bet everything we want to risk just on one hand. We are still playing an EV- game, of course.
Any move different from that will be the casino's fortune. 

Even if the game isn't perfect randomly produced, best action to take is still trying to get an edge within very short terms and by wagering huge into over selected spots. We want the math to be on our side. Always.

If I'd say that certain rare spots are offering a 70% winning probability nobody would be interested to know how and when those spots can come out. No bac player is willing to register several shoes then betting a hand that yet gets a 30% probability of losing.
Mostly those rare EV+ spots comes out from a possible RTM effect but we know that whether the game is random it's impossible or very very unlikely to transform an EV- game into a profitable game.

I'm deadly sure that certain acute players are playing a kind of game close or equal to a zero negative edge just by wagering very few spots. Technically is to bet P when an asymmetrical hand is huge unlikely, maybe hoping that the actual card distribution favors P side as an additional tool.
Or, most likely, betting a restrict number of B hands knowing that the asym feature will be more likely than expected.

Probability gambling is a game of streaks intended in a wide way, of course we want to play games (baccarat) where each event will be slightly affected by previous situations, especially when we have reasons to think that cards are not properly shuffled.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on November 06, 2019, 09:56:15 PM
According to our tests, one of the best tool we can use to know whether a deck is properly shuffled or not is about the "natural" back to back probability.
And of course about the asym probability.

Even though a substantial error occurs for variance issues (less likely card combinations producing the same effect), this is one of the best tool to get a better idea of what's coming out.

as.



Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on November 09, 2019, 10:09:54 PM
Consider this simple method.

Our plan is to detect when a natural point will come out, no matter which side will be kissed by such natural.
The probability any natural will come out is 34.1%, a slight higher than a dozen will show up at roulette.
Without any doubt, when a natural comes out a symmetrical hand will be formed, meaning that betting banker is a fool option.

At some extent, any natural apparition translates into an idi.ot choice (when wagering B) and a fair situation when wagering P.

Since a 34.1% probability is way higher than a 8.4% probability, we know that a back to back probability is quite more likely even though half considered (as we can't bet both sides).
Naturally there are many levels where a natural could come out, a back to back probability is a zero gap, a natural followed by another different hand is a 1-gap probability and so on.

Differently to roulette, the overall natural probability per any shoe is more restricted as we can't cancel 8s and 9s and zero value cards from the deck.
Especially whether 8s and 9s should be more ore less concentrated on some portions of the deck.
Naturally a perfect 8s/9s pace is out of order for obvious reasons and we still have to fight other less likely card combinations forming a natural.

Same about asym hands.
What we really want when betting Banker is the asym hand production and nothing else.
Everything different from that is a long term EV- move, unless our B bets are able to catch a better than 8.4% probability.
Coincidentally such probability is nearly half of the probability to get a natural on either side.

Instead of guessing which side will win, we should try to focus about those two probabilities, as they are the most likely to produce the actual outcomes. Itlr.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: judge on November 21, 2019, 04:16:08 AM
Walkingman, could you elaborate more on your dbl ZZ and others you mentioned,,,Thanks Mark
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 02, 2019, 11:03:22 PM
A collective is a long term registration of events getting the same attributes and regardless of the spots of the succession we've chosen to register, we'll expect to get constant probability values.
In some way this is the perfect form to detect real randomness as we derive the probability after the events have really happened into the same supposedly independent world.
I mean that without knowledge we suppose the model we are playing into is random but more often than not it isn't.

Obviously baccarat must be considered as an infinite succession of finite games as each shoe will feature dynamic probabilities either for card distribution issues and for the rules.

Nonetheless, it's widely ascertained by mathematicians and gambling experts that no matter which spots we want to bet along every shoe, itlr our results will follow the same WL percentages, our old -1.06% -1.24% negative values.
That is they assume that every shoe dealt is a form of a collective, at least in the baccarat sense.
And actually they are completely right, providing shoes offered to players are randomly shuffled. 

Therefore and taking for grant that no one taxed random world can be beaten by any means itlr, if one is capable to devise spots constantly shifting to one side or, more likely, getting very small deviations, well this is an absolute confirmation that most shoes are not randomly shuffled.

Thus in order to achieve this, two conditions must be fulfilled to get profitable opportunities:

- not every shoe is playable

- a proper place selection must be used

If every shoe would be playable and knowing that some high stakes players are pretty smart, baccarat wouldn't exist.
Remember that casinos get less value money from certain HS players than from common low-mid stakes bettors as the former population bet with an edge rarely exceeding the 1.06/1.24% negative edge (huge comps, rebates, flat betting strategy, etc).
Baccarat exists as players want to bet every shoe and most part or all of hands dealt.
Interesting to notice that we must add a subjective probability theory to a strict frequency probability line.

It remains to assess which shoes may be profitable or at least less disadvanteged to the players.


First condition fulfilled, the place selection topic is, imo, of paramount and decisive importance.
Outcomes place selection is the direct scientific proof that baccarat shoes are not pure collectives as they involve a probability statistically significant different than what we've been taught for years.
And the only possible answer is that shoes aren't properly shuffled (or, less likely, that baccarat is a vulnerable game).

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 07, 2019, 01:05:03 AM
To get a better idea of how baccarat really works, I introduce my concept of "random walk".

A player whimsically betting here or there, following trends, following lucky or unlucky players, playing drunk or perfectly sober, wagering by the influence of Alprazolam or THC or whatever, constitutes a random walk.
The same about big road and the four derived roads, now being mechanically ordered. 

Naturally even a player wagering only one hand per every 2, 5 or 100 shoes is a random walk.
A random walk is just an infinite sequence of W and L successions having almost (as B bets >P bets) the same probability to show up.

For example, if the shoe provides really random outcomes, W/L dispositions follow the old 50/50 rule dictating that the probability to win (or lose) four hands in a row is 1/16 (6.25%) and so on.
But such probability is real only when the shoe is producing random outcomes in the sense that no matter which spot of the shoe we start to bet those outcomes will be unaffected by previous events (place selection).
Naturally and in absence of informations, we have no means to detect whether the first four hands dealt of a new shoe are really randomly placed or not.
In any other scenario, if we think the future four hands will give us a sensible better 6.25% WL ratio in either direction we'll get an edge. Same about lower or higher probability circumstances.

Imo, the more we wait for favourable dependent and allegedly unrandom situations, the better will be our results, providing we proper classify the playable shoes.
It's easier than what you think.

Tomorrow I'll talk about what I improperly name as "limited" random walks.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 08, 2019, 01:45:11 AM
The best baccarat player in the world is not the person who is capable to win the larger amount of units but whoever keeps his/her losses very close to the negative edge value (say an average -1.15% of total money wagered on BP hands).
At the end of the year we should try to recollect how money we have bet and how much we have lost at tables. If the sum is around 1.15% of the money bet we are really in good shape.
That is the number of W should be almost equal to the number of L, only vig caused our debacle.

Unfortunately it's quite likely we had lost more than that, maybe we have added some side bets here and there or that we have used a bad money management. Of course no MM could provide us a winning method thus we should accept the idea that the game cannot be beaten other than by a proper bet selection.

Imo there are only two ways to get a winning bet selection working itlr:

- flat betting strategy where number of W exceeds the number of L and the vig impact

- short multilayered progressions oriented to get a key W or Ws happening on restricted sequences considered as profitable

Alas, those strategies cannot win when applied at random EV- games. And for that matter they can't win at EV=0 games either.

Many baccarat books or, worse, internet system sellers, keep stressing us about the importance to "quit when ahead". They want to teach us how to win and then they put in emphasis such silly phrase.
If I'm winning and I have to quit to preserve my bucks, why not starting to play a kind of an opposite strategy?
And when do I know I should quit because I've reached the apex of my winnings?


Gambling is a game of streaks, at baccarat say a game of "gaps" between two opposite situations that not necessarily must be B or P hands.
It's just the natural streak appearance that destroy every system. Providing the game is randomly placed.
Then our task should be directed to spot situations where a lesser number of streaks should be more probable than normal thus increasing the likelihood to get a more expected outcome. And it can't be that unless a kind of unrandomness or super complex dependency is acting.

But even if you take for grant that bac shoes are not randomly formed, you can't forget that we're speaking about an edge quite high but limited to very few spots and not to every shoe dealt.

Let's make an example of one of many singular random walks we could put in action fictionally and oriented to disprove the concept that bac shoes are collectives.

Say we want to set up a short "road" where we'll classify outcomes as A or B depending whether after a winning natural point happening on a given side the two next hands bet on the same side are producing at least one win. If we win in two attempts we mark 1, otherwise we mark 2.
Thus our trigger to start or follow up the classification is the winning natural happening on either side.

Example: B9 winning point, we'll bet two times B; if we win we mark 1 otherwise we mark 2.
Whenever naturals do not show up or by gaps higher than 2 we do not mark anything.
In reality this is an irregular random walk in the sense that two-step betting action will get an obvious nearly 75% EXPECTED probability to win whether a kind of progression is applied.
And naturally it's not about the general more likelihood to get 1 or 2, just the distribution of such 1s and 2s. That is that that 75% value is more or less deviated toward one side. 

No matter how whimisically are the actual results, this new 1/2 line most of the times won't follow the natural probability distribution, especially from a place selection point of view.
Not everytime but most of the times.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 13, 2019, 10:45:57 PM
In reality no one long term winning player wants to inform the enemy about the details by which this game could be beaten. Casinos prosper about the ignorance of their bettors and not only about their fkng math edge.
And truth to be told, baccarat is still alive as the vast majority of asian players rely on luck about their bets destiny, say the persistence of certain trends showing up along the way.

I can't rule out the possibility that other researchers had scientifically theorized the unrandomness of baccarat, yet if we keep thinking the game as a randomly produced game we're going to nowhere.
Probably we'll get better odds to cross a turtle roaming on the Mohave desert than trying to win a game we think to be randomly placed.

Actually and even taking for grant that the game is really random (a horrendous mistake), we can build certain betting lines that will minimize the variance factor working into an asymmetrical proposition.
Next post will be about those methods.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on December 13, 2019, 11:34:49 PM
Excellent. I have actually started an outline and I've identified no less than 10 advantages that I have used successfully, at times, over the past years .

More on that at a later date thanks for putting in the input.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 14, 2019, 03:08:06 AM
Quote from: alrelax on December 13, 2019, 11:34:49 PM
Excellent. I have actually started an outline and I've identified no less than 10 advantages that I have used successfully, at times, over the past years .

More on that at a later date thanks for putting in the input.

Thanks Al!
I'll wait further comments from you about that.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on December 15, 2019, 01:31:03 AM
I will post a short outline under the topic, Wagers and Intricacies thread. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 23, 2019, 11:20:50 PM
Imo bac is beatable as the "general" probability doesn't correspond to the "actual" probability.

According to the general probability, itlr each spot will follow a 50.68%/49.32% BP probability, thus no one betting method could find spots where 50.68/49.32 ratio will be higher (or lower) than expected. In a word that the statistical deviations will follow such values, practically meaning that the model we are playing into is randomly placed and very very very very slight dependent at most.

Actually efforts made to find profitable spots were made ONLY by math procedures.

Easy to see such procedures contain a big mistake as they were tested on pc generated shoes where randomness supposedly prevails.
Moreover, they couldn't take into account the probability of success of certain events considered by ranges, as they kept for grant that whenever A>B any other subsequent situation will follow a costant asymmetrical line and it's not the case at baccarat as a single 8 or 9 falling on one side will dictate mostly the outcome.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: Lungyeh on December 25, 2019, 11:32:37 AM
Its Christmas so some free time.

2 guys representing the polar opposite of the types of baccarat players.

One is a trend breaker. Lets call him James. If he sees 3xB, he bets for a P to come next. Even when there is a break away where previous results only show maximum of 2xB. Or after a cluster of say 2,3,5,3,4 B and P group, there comes the alternate B-P-B...  (in Chinese parlance ding-dong), he will next bet B predicting the alternates will come to an end. If the result is a P, hence B-P-B-P he will next bet P predicting the alternating results will come to an end.

Peter is the polar opposite. When there is a break as in the 3xB, he will continue betting B predicting it will be the start of a ?dragon? run.

Likewise when the alternates (ding-dong) comes into play, he will bet for the alternate ding-dong to continue.

Most players are either one of the other. Occasionally there comes along someone like Glen who has the guile to be flexible and bend with the wind and not break. Otherwise there is a propensity to be at least, more one type of player then the other. Watching also for trends to follow or break in the small charts ie big eye, small road, cockroach or bead plate.

No matter. Here is where I differ in my stance from Asymbac who states that good betselection is more important then money management in ensuring one wins at the casino.

I believe that money management is the decisive matter. You see, if one is a trend player or anti trend player or anything in between, on every visit (lets not even talk long term), there will be many occasions when the trend player will be winning and many occasions when games are more random, that he would be losing. Similarly, there will be occasions when the anti trend player will be winning and occasions of dragon runs or other discernible patterns, when the anti trend guy is put to the sword.

Whatever your playing style, there would be occasions when it becomes so clear to you what to bet next and you win! But there are also occasions that whatever you bet or is clear to you yet you lose. You lose when you bet Banker amd player has one point and you draw a third card to end up with baccarat or zero points. Or you bet Player draws a third card to give you 8 points and Banker draws a third card to end up with 9 points. This is Baccarat! 🙄

So the decisive criteria to walk away a winner is to find a formula to walk away when you are winning and starting to lose back. Stop and go home. Because to my observation, certainly every gamer will surely be winning at a certain point during the casino visit. I don't know about those two players who talk about making 2 wins and going back. that's another ball game altogether. But what's so difficult about winning 2 times in a visit ? 🙄

Glen has some suggestions. For me, if you win > 70% of your buy in money and you lose back 30% stop. If you did not touch the lose back of 30%, you may continue. This is really a useful guideline. Discipline you to be careful and not make wild bets while ahead.

EASIER SAID THEN DONE
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on December 25, 2019, 05:10:51 PM
I am going to make some comments to your reply here Lungyeh.

I don't want to cluster Asyms thread, so I'm going to post it in my section called Wagering and Intricacies.  I'll work on it now.

You have some of what I posted correct and you got some of it wrong, I'll explain in that section.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 27, 2019, 10:09:38 PM
But what's so difficult about winning 2 times in a visit ?

Thanks Lung for your reply, among your interesting points I highlighted this passage.

It's so difficult to win in two visits in a row as people treat baccarat as a kind of lottery where each ticket they are buying offers (slight) unfair odds.
A lot of ding-dong? Hit the jackpot. A lot of singles and doubles or consecutive streaks? Another jackpot.
Strong imbalances between B and P? Again it's a jackpot as well as every kind of repetitive patterns.

Now, are there reasons to think that along the way we'll hit such lotteries more often than not?
Yes, such (small) jackpots come out with a decent frequency but not enough to balance and invert the constant house edge. No matter how sophisticated is our progression plan or MM.

Sayed that, I'm not ruling out the possibility that some acute players tend to get a clearer picture of the whole situation without the knowledge of possible randomness defects or whatever could alter an unbeatable random model. Still the common trait of such players is to play very few hands.

We ought to remember that without math advantages, it's impossible to beat any EV- game whether considered randomly distributed.
Therefore our only option to beat it is to consider and study why, when and how could be unramdomly placed.

No luck intervenes on our side.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 28, 2019, 11:59:29 PM
We've been taught for years that B probability is 50.68% and P=49.32% but probably just a couple of persons explained mathematically by combinatorial analysis why those percentages were obtained.
A shortcut would be to consider a very long sample of observations and, voila', those percentages tend to coincide with those values.
Therefore theory and practice meet.

But it's interesting to notice that such probabilities are the reflex of dynamic probabilities since B probability varies with big jumps from 50% to 57.93%, values that P side must accept passively.
Moreover the game is, yes, intended as partially dependent anyway at a degree not substantially altering the features of a perfect independent world happening at a fair roulette, for example.
Finally and fortunately nobody investigated seriously whether certain outcomes come from a real random production, an essential requisite to make unbeatable a slight taxed game offered at casinos.

Actually and by utilizing a very strict definition of randomness, no one live shoe is randomly produced even though for practical purposes not every shoe will be playable (at least by the"human" possibilities tested so far).
That's because is very difficult (not to say impossible) to arrange cards in a way that certain events cannot be perfectly independent to others and, of course, the word we must take care most of is dispersion.

The fact that after 10.000 BP resolved hands dealt on average 5068 are banker outcomes and 4932 are player results doesn't necessarily mean that every possible distribution will follow the dispersion values known regarding other propositions.
Neither should be considered an insurmountable obstacle the tiny tax applied at baccarat.

As previously sayed in my posts, it could be that what I label as "random defects" are just  instrinsic flaws of the game not investigated by so called baccarat experts, mainly oriented by nature to find math advantages (card counting techniques).

At any rate we think that dispersion values cannot be practically limited when apllied at a random situation even if the game is asymmetrically governed and acting under slight dependent processes. Thus a kind of unrandomness must act in some way.

For a moment let's say the first initial collection of BP results appears as really random. Therefore unbeatable. No problem with that.
That is per every class of W situations we'll get a proportional class of L events with huge degrees of variance.

In order to confirm that outcomes are random, we'll make certain sub collections derived from the primitive simple BP succession every bac player in the universe relies upon.
If the first collection is really random then every each sub collection must be random, otherwise it's negated the perfect randomness condition.

For example, say we build our personal derived road, that is a random walk in such a way:
Anytime a winning natural point comes out on a given side, we'll register the outcome of the next hand as I (identical) or O (opposite) in relation to the side which previously won by the natural point.
Therefore per each shoe we'll get a I and O succession having an average 34.2% probability to appear, meaning that on average such new road will get around 26 decisions.
No surprises, the average number of I and O after this new collection will be as expected but what differs on most part of shoes dealt is the distribution of patterns that could alter on our favor the probability of success.

It's astounding to see that shoes coming from the same shuffle procedures acting on the same shoe will provide the best opportunities to grasp a possible unrandom world that, I repeat, shouldn't be considered other than from a strict dispersion point of view.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 02, 2020, 10:27:49 PM
Baccarat is one of the purest form of gambling, no wonder it has acquired an increasing popularity over the years.
After all players must guess a pre-ordered succession of events and getting the luxury to choose what, when and how much to bet.
No one other gambling game provide such features.

But to be consistent winners we must assess by the greatest possible precision what's our real probability to win or lose.
Since a baccarat shoe is composed by a finite number of cards where many of them are "key cards" we should estimate what are the real probabilities to get an event or the opposite.

We all know that B probability to win on each spot is either 50% or 57.93%, whereas P probability to win remains at 50% (actually some card distributions favor P side more than that).
Itlr, that is after having mixed several outcomes (maybe springing form different sources) the average BP probability comes closer and closer to the 50.68/49.32 ratio.

A total different issue regards the probability of success (POS), that is the probability to win after a given succession of bets.

Whereas the probability to win or lose on each side remains constant and mostly unguessable, shoes present a variety of POS that equals to 1, that is the certainty that at least one searched event will appear.
Of course the possible unfortunate counterpart is zero, that is that the event searched won't appear at least one time in our shoe or after a short sequences of consecutive shoes.

Easy examples where POS=1 (probability equals to certainty) are:

- shoes producing at least three streaks

- shoes producing at least one P or B double (unless long streaks happened on either side)

- shoes producing at least one asymmetrical formation along the way

and so on

Of course such strong features generally won't be of practical use without the use of an impossible progression, unless being mildly moderated and multilayered conceived (Albalaha could instruct us about this).

Forgetting the single shoe probability which could be easily affected by a kind of so called "randomness", POS may be endorsed by waiting the appearance of huge unlikely situations.
The more we wait for the "unlikely" events, greater will be our POS.
A thing that cannot work at other independent models as roulette, for example.

Say we are putting outcomes vertically in a grid made of columns of 10 spots each (a 10-hand bead plate not considering ties). Now we want to form a new registration of I and O results regarding the left position of the new outcome.
At the eyes of the experienced player it will appear very soon that such new random walk isn't affected by a an indipendent and unguessable model, as a place selection procedure will demonstrate that most shoes won't follow a 50.68/49.32 ratio by any means.

Some spots are slight more likely than others, some ranges of apparition are more likely than others.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 08, 2020, 10:04:55 PM
Imo there are no other ways to beat the game unless we have proved that bac is working by more or less unrandom standards.

Of course we can't rule out the possibility that an "usual" unrandom world sometimes could take the resemblance of an unbeatable random model, that's why we prefer to discard shoes not fitting our plan at the start instead of trying to get a kind of "more likely world" in the subsequent portions of the shoe.

More on that later.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 10, 2020, 10:46:16 PM
Since I can't touch the SM machines topic, let's compare baccarat with roulette.

At roulette every spin will provide symmetrical probabilities, since the probability of each number or groups of numbers remains the same (1/37, 2/37, etc).
Say the whole model we are playing into is symmetrical by any means.

At baccarat every BP hand will be formed by two distinct and very different probabilities: 50%/50% and 57.93%/42.07%. Those different probabilities alone makes baccarat an asymmetrical game.

Of course every fkng shoe dealt will present different values of such asymmetricity, either in terms of numbers and, more importantly, in term of distributions.

Everybody reading my pages (btw, thanks to you) knows that the asymmetrical 57.93/42.07% value should come out on average 8.4% of the total hands dealt.
A probability value very similar to betting 3 numbers at a single zero roulette (8.1%).

Every player having a decent familiarity of both roulette and baccarat would expect that a similar probability (3 numbers vs asym hand) will produce similar dispersion values taken on the same 75 hands sample.

It seems this is not the case.

Easy to argue that a shoe formed by a finite number of cards burnt hand after hand is quite different from a so called perfect symmetrical world happening at roulette.

More importantly is to notice that when a 3 numbers group hit at roulette the winning probability is 100%, whereas at baccarat we are still fighting with a well lower 15.86% edge.
On the other hand, every other spin not hitting our 3 numbers provides a 100% losing event whereas at baccarat we still get a "fair" 50% (taxed) probability to win.

Itlr, a perfect math plan should be oriented either to bet P trying to escape the 42.07% unfavourable winning probability or, it's way better, to catch the 57.93% winning probability when betting B.

In truth a wonderful virtual player capable to always bet P without crossing one time a single asym hand will get very tiny profits (p=50%, yet certain card distributions happening on symmetrical situations help the Player side thus enlarging a bit the P probability). But there's a more excellent player, that is whoever is capable to bet B as he/she assessed that an asym hand will come out more likely within a more restricted range than what math dictates.

Some very experienced players (Alrelax and Sputnik surely belong to this list) have raised the ability to catch or abandon the situations where B or P winning probability ranges are more or less restricted than what the old 50.68/49.32 ratio dictates.

But the common denominator we have to put in first place is that shoes are not randomly shuffled (say it's physically impossible to arrange cards by so called perfect random models).

There are many ways to detect this, I prefer to choose a strict objective betting placement following the best "randomness" definition ever made by some statistics experts.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: Fran7738 on January 16, 2020, 05:44:06 AM
Well first of all , thank you AsymBacGuy and Alrelax for all those generous and insigthful post .

I like the idea of getting an edge by knowing , finding unrandom shoes ( bad shuffling ).

With roulette, the only way i found to make big wins is by following hot numbers with a positive progression .  Hot numbers could come up by pure luck or by some bias ( unrandom) , dealer signature or something physical affecting the wheel .

The challenge is that the bias will not be there for very long usually -:)
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 16, 2020, 09:42:17 PM
Thank You!

Quote from: Fran7738 on January 16, 2020, 05:44:06 AM
The challenge is that the bias will not be there for very long usually -:)

Exactly.
The same about baccarat and this is the very point I'm trying to make over the years.

At baccarat it's quite easy to confuse strong "easy to detect" patterns (as long streaks, long B or P single/double successions, etc) with a statistical bias that must provide unrandom successions ascertained by tools as place selection and probabiliity after events, for example. Successions not happening around the corner, of course.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 21, 2020, 11:57:12 PM
There are different approaches to play baccarat, surely people writing here is loaded with experience and guided through the help of very long term observations.

The masters of a so called situational strategy are Alrelax and Lungyeh, me and Sputnik preferring a more objective approach. Then comes Albalaha that loves to take a strict math method capable to overcome the most unfavourable situations every nearly 50/50 proposition will form along the way.

Collecting all those different thinking lines, we could assume that baccarat is an infinite production of steady or mixed events happening at various degrees.
The common denominator is we do not want to force probabilities unless we have reasons to think that at some point/s A>B.

By adopting several different place selection collections, we suddendly notice that the so called undetectable random model isn't so undetectable as expected.

And the more we are waiting for a given event, higher will be the probability to get a searched event, even knowing that the winning probability won't never be 1.

A thing possible only as shoes are not randomly shuffled.

Next advanced strategy thoughts about my unb plan #2.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 25, 2020, 10:39:02 PM
To understand my point first we need to assign a specific role to the word "probability".
It doesn't exist probability calculus over a given sample of data without the involvement of a "proper" randomness factor.

Probability can only be ascertained by assessing the limited values of relative frequency made over long samples of the same collective and, more importantly, of "infinite" sub collectives derived from the collective mother. 
And real randomness can only be verified by statistical tools as place selection and not by classical probability formulas that consider each scenario as equally placed or corresponding to simple long term ratios involving too general features (B>P is the best known).
At least if we want to beat the game itlr.

No wonders, we can't have a single possibility to beat a random EV- game, that is a game where the winning probability is insensitive to place selection. Meaning that no matter which spot we choose to play on many sub-collectives our EV will be always negative. Even if our bets will be always placed on "more likely" B side. Such difference will be limited to a mere less -0.18% disadvantage and we do need a lot more to win itlr.
Only the shoes affected by a fair degree of unrandomness could be beaten itlr. By a degree very very close to 100%.

My unb plan #2 is one of the simplest examples of that.
We build three different collectives (supposedly being three distinct random walks) derived by the consecutiveness of B doubles.
Rw #1 will fictionally bet after a single B double not getting another B double (that is betting just two times and then stopping until a new situation will arise), rw #2 will fictionally bet after two B doubles had appeared and the same about r.w. #3.
Our challenge is to assess whether such B double clusters itlr will stop or prolong at percentages different to the classical expected values (in a way or another).

Since we have been told that no matter which spot we decide to bet our EV will be always negative (with all the related consequences about dispersion values), we want to verify such thing.

We register how many consecutive W or L we will get from each of those three distinct betting plans, of course when r.w. #1 will steadily win plans #2 and #3 will get no entry or mostly very few entries.
As our derived plans must consider a precise trigger (any B double up to 4 consecutive doubles considered as a losing overall situation), many shoes won't be playable for a "lack of space", meaning that we can easily wait a high percentage of the shoe played before getting a B double trigger.

And it could happen that a 4+ B double consecutive recurrence will be placed at the start of the shoe, meaning that all our r.w.'s will be losers (anyway just at one step each).

Hence we are forced to work at various degrees among two opposite situations, the lack of triggers from one part and the "unlikely" situation from the other one.

Let's run a "random" 10 live shoes sample taken from my data (I used the actual time) and see what happens.
The number after any shoe indicates the number of B consecutive doubles. *=a losing hand not forming a resolved hand according to my plan):

1) 1, 2

2) 1, 1, 1, *

3) 1, 1

4) 2, 1

5) 1, 1, 1, 2, 1

6) 2, 1, 1, 1

7) 1, 1, 1, 1

8) 1, 1, *

9) 1, 1, 1, 1, 2

10) 1, 2, 1, 1

Another sample taken randomly:

11) 1

12) 1, 3, 2, 1

13) 1, 1, 1, 1

14) 2, 2

15) 1, 1, 2, 1, 1

16) 1, 1, *

17) 5, 1, 1

18) 3, 1

19) 1, 2, 1, 1

20) 1, 1, 3, *

again more 10 shoes

21) 1, 1

22) 3, 2

23) 2, 1, 2

24) 1, 1, 1

25) 1, 3, 1

26) 1, 1

27) 1, 1

28) 1, 2

29) 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1

30) 1, 2, 1.

more ten live shoes

31) 1, 1, 1

32) 1, 1, 1, 3, 2

33) 1, 1

34) 1, 1

35) 1, 1, 1, 1

36) 2, 1, 2, 1, 1

37) 1, 3, 2, 1

38) 1, 1

39) 1, 1, 1, 2, 2*

40) 1, 1

Try to run your LIVE shoes and you'll see that those values will more or less correspond to such results (providing to assign a proper 1, 2 or 3 value to your distinct r.w.'s)

Even if you think that such results will be manipulated in some way (and you can bet that they are not as you are well aware I'm not selling anything) we may assume that such "easy to detect" outcomes are the result of many opposite forces acting along the way per each shoe:

1- propensity to get more B3+ than B2 after a B2 outcome

2- very very slight propensity to get the opposite result already happened

3- the possible unrandomness of the game


Now, the #1 factor is mathematically ascertained not needing further explanations.
#2 factor is either confirmed by simple statistical issues and by mr Shackleford  authority.
#3 third factor was deeply studied by myself confirming without a doubt the shoes are not collectives, that is they are definitely not randomly placed.

Naturally there are more precise and accurate random walks oriented to disprove the common assumption that at baccarat anything is possible at any time.

A total complete bighornsh.it by any means.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 25, 2020, 11:53:11 PM
Here are 34 real live shoes recently dealt at one HS Vegas room (not involving a SM machine):

- 1, 1, 2

- 1, 1

- 1, 1, 1, 1

- 1, 2, 1, 1

- 3, 2, 1

- 3, 1, 1, 5, 1

- 2, 2, 1

- ----

- 1, 1, 1, 1

- 1, 1, 1

- 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 4

- 2, 2, 2

- 1, 3, 1

- 2, 1

- 1, 1, 2, 2

- 3, 3

- 1, 1

- 2, 1, 1, 3

- 1, 3, 1, 1

- 2, 1

- 1, 1

- 1, 2, 1

- 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1

- 1, 2, 1

- 2, 1 ,1

- 1, 1, 1, *

- 1, 4, 1, 1

- 1

- 1, 1

- 1, 1, 1, 2

- 1, 1, 1

- 1, 3, 1

- 1, 1, *

- 2, 1, 1, 1, 1

Notice that, for example,  the second position being the effect of "so called" whimsically and random results, formed outcomes of: 1,1,1,2,2,1,2,0,1,1,1,2,3,1,1,3,1,1,3,1,1,2,1,2,1,1,4,0,1,1,1,3,1,1.

First position formed those results:

1,1,1,1,3,3,2,0,1,1,1,2,1,2,1,3,1,2,1,2,1,1,1,1,2,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,2.

Now tell me how the fck one can lose by a selected betting strategy applied on those patterns.

And for obvious reasons I have presented one of the stu.pi.dest r.w. that could work on such game.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 27, 2020, 10:58:29 PM
We see that no matter what are the actual results according to the game rules, any single shoe formed by a finite card distribution and dealt almost entirely will be somewhat biased (from a strict probability calculus point of view).
We just need to know how to take advantage of such bias recurring per every shoe dealt.

Of course if baccarat still exists is because the bias either is very limited or not always detectable by the common forms of registrations made by ridicolously simple mechanical processes.
The more we are complicating our registrations, better is the probability to disprove that baccarat is a random game.

In reality some simple events happening at baccarat are affected by certain very low dispersion values that when properly selected are offering a player's edge easily surpassing a possible 10-15% negative edge established by the house.
Quality events like the naturals apparition on either side, for example.
Unfortunately no casino is so stupi.d to offer such side bets, they want us to enlarge the uncertainty by forcing us to guess the exact winning hand.

Now, if a 34.2% probability presents low dispersion values, why to bother about a well higher 49.32% or 50.68% winning probability?

Indeed there's a big difference when betting low dispersion values at an almost 1:2 winning probability compared to an almost coin flip probability where dispersion values are considered as undetectable.
Quality happening on former situation must be converted into a quality feature on the latter events.
The B doubles succession is one of the simplest strategy to adopt with the important caveat that differently to naturals either side apparition, many shoes are not fitting the requisites to get a proper quality factor for a lack of space or obvious intrinsic features not neceessarily related to key cards fall.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 03, 2020, 12:02:56 AM
In the way presented so far, we see that at baccarat we do not need complicated math formulas to prove or disprove randomness. A simple place selection method forming a miriad of subcollectives will make the job.
Leave to the experts and casinos the idea that bac shoes are randomly produced or, conversely, that a possible unrandomness will be recognizable by the formation of repetitive patterns or stuff like that.
Baccarat could be solved (or not) first by the negation or confirmation of the strictest definition of randomness ever made and then and only then by the probability calculus applied on such random or unrandom environment.

Probably one of the reasons why bac is considered a random game happens as BP limiting values of relative frequency itlr will conform to a 50.68/49.32 steady proposition.
Thus every shoe will be eligible to be included in the registrations and that each playable spot will provide given probability values no matter what.

Bighornsh.it by any means.

First, BP probability values vary a lot by the actual shoe composition and actual card situations not regarding a so called general or so "equally likely scenario", secondly many BP "higher level" outcomes will surely provide lower dispersion values, third and more importantly, place selection issue will form infinite subcollectives not fitting the above expected BP dispersion values, especially whether involving a "same" or "opposite" result at given spots happening at certain shoes.

Consider my plan #2.
That is about the restricted probability to get multiple BB consecutive scenarios at various degrees.
We may think that after any given BB situation the most likely pattern will be BBB and not BBP by a better 0.18% long term degree.

Rattlesnake.sh.it.

Tomorrow the fundamental steps to restrict the variance.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: Fran7738 on February 06, 2020, 06:48:47 PM
Hi Asymbac, 

in regards of this post on randomness, what is the best table to choose from?

A. The cards are being shuffled by hand by being all spread on the table first?

B. The cards are being shuffled by hand , pile by pile whit ease ,grace and skills  8) ?

C. Shuffled master machines ?

D. Woo site simulations results ?  Or RNG  ?

I am looking to play shoes where the early presentments will be significatives for a good portion of the remainder of the shoe .  :whistle:

At first, i have been playing around with your unb plan no2 using Woo sites simulations results and got some good results !  But let's not forget that every lost =3 ...

Since, i have been looking at live data from two different kind of shuffling technics and they just don't look the same as RNG ones  !!  Lol 

This is telling me that the way it is shuffled is of a great importance .
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 10, 2020, 01:05:43 AM
Hi Fran!

Randomness is a quite intricate topic and baccarat wasn't resolved so far as "experts" made a fatal mistake considering bac shoes as randomly produced.
Actually the very few players making a living at this game know very well this bac vulnerability.

No matter the game involved, any shoe formed by multiple decks provide "unrandom" situations as key cards could be more or less concentrated in some portions of the shoe.
Itlr such key card distribution will dictate the results, say their weight on the whole picture, thus the probability of success of certain bets.
At bac we have the luxury to decide what, when and how much to bet. Not mentioning the fact that bac shoes are dealt almost entirely.
In some sense we should know that most of the times some event/s must happen at least one time or, it's the same concept, that certain situations are very very unlikely to happen even considering every single shoe dealt.

About your specific question, let's say that any physical shuffling procedure will provide some valuable unrandom spots to bet into, practically it's just a matter of space. Say of available betting space. And of course we should expect very few occasions to bet profitably.

By any means SM machines working on the same shoe provide the best opportunities for the player. Obviously I do not want to go into details, keep "experts" and casinos thinking that such shoes are randomly placed. Overall those tables provide huge profits for the house as many players like to wager the innumerable side bets offered (without trying to use the proper card counting techniques).

I do not know how Woo shoes are produced, I guess they are not springing from a real physical source. Thus they do not mean nothing to me. Even if my unb plan #2 had provided good results to you.   
The same about RNG shoes.


I am looking to play shoes where the early presentments will be significatives for a good portion of the remainder of the shoe .


It depends about the portion of the shoe you have considered and about the quality of the hands dealt so far.

Say it's virtually impossible to miss a winning hand unless a proper betting space is available to you.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 11, 2020, 10:49:50 PM
Starting to consider baccarat from the strictest definitions of randomness it's the way to go.

When playing you do not want to only adhere to those fkng roads displayed on the screen.
They are springing from too simple situations very vulnerable to our main enemy: variance. Even whether unrandomly produced.
That's because after some mechanical given conditions are met, they consider each hand as eligible to be registered no matter what.

It's obvious the more hands we are collecting per any given shoe higher will be the variance and this strongly relates to some insensitivity to place selection and probability after events features.
I mean that we have to discard from our registrations many resolved hands pretending as they haven't happened at all.

It's just this fact that makes beatable this wonderful game.

as. 
   
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: Fran7738 on February 12, 2020, 07:49:25 PM
Thank's a lot Asymbac for those complete replies . What i meant by ,

I am looking to play shoes where the early presentments will be significatives for a good portion of the remainder of the shoe .

I read a post from Alrelax some time ago  and can not find it back for the moment  and as a hint , he was stating that if at the beginning of a shoe , there is a streak of players or bankers , we could then find some very good spots to play the side of the streak.

The way it starts could stay this way for a while until a major turning point or even for the whole shoe?

I am probably losing my time but i am working on a betting bet selection strategy  where  i need singles and at worst doubles . Then i have  a stop loss plan for shoes with lots of streaks .

Sometimes, if i am alone at the table ( i need cards to play ,lol) , i will stop and reverse when there is a triple showing  shooting for a streak of 7 using the 1+4 side parlay wager of Alrelax  -:) .  This  bet need to be successful one out of 15 to break even ...   I don't have statistics or  lots of experience  but i think it should succeed one out of two shoes on average  .
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: Albalaha on February 13, 2020, 02:18:46 AM
In a random game, past doesn't tell your future. It can not say that if a pattern seems to work, it will continue or end right there. At max, you may get a good guess on sequential probabilities. For example, if a run of 15 bankers has just happened which ended by a player, there may not be another stretch of 15 bankers just there. It is not impossible to happen but most unlikely. All other guesses are just guesses without even slightest degree of accuracy.
         By the way, I do not intend to disrupt a discussion with my inputs which may look off topic to you. I just want to let you understand that working on betselection will not yield you anything. I have been doing extensive researches on random games like roulette and baccarat and have analysed several millions outcomes in thousands of ways in past 14-15 years. In the beginning, I was as naive as a routine gambler. I wasted thousands of hours working to find the best bet, strangely, there is none.
            If you want to earn from a random game, only way is devise your own money management considering all kinds of variance you may get. With that all games with slight house edge will be beatable, not just baccarat.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: Fran7738 on February 13, 2020, 05:23:26 PM
From a guy with so many years of experience, your input is more than welcome!

I do agree with you ,  '' in a random game, past doesn't tell your future '' .


I will not play RNG  bac games or even try to figure out presentments occurring.

That's why i find Alrelax and Asymbac post so interesting .

They are playing a game where randomness is questionnable. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on February 13, 2020, 05:35:32 PM
On a related note, I know I touch on many subjects and many intricacies of real live brick-and-mortar casino baccarat play.

I do not believe in trying to define card order or the meaning of Randomness and how to literally beat it. I don't believe anyone ever will and I don't believe it's possible to do any type of mechanical or scheduled wagering with successful results with consistent play.

In summation to this quick note, I believe in identifying and recognizing and wagering when something is there that is powerful and presenting itself while capitalizing on it with positive progressions with my money management methods involving win money.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: 8OR9 on February 14, 2020, 10:41:52 PM
How to win at roulette, baccarat, sports betting etc etc ( negative expectation games )

1. You will always lose more bets than you will win. Sorry about that.

2. You have to win more on your winning bets than you lose on your losing bets to show a profit.

3. Set a maximum, conservative unit loss per bac shoe or pre-determined number of roulette spins or pre-determined number of sports bets and set a planned unit profit per bac shoe or   pre-determined number of roulette spins or pre-determined number of sports bets ......such as 30 roulette spins or 30 sports bets

For example, assume you will lose a max of 8 units a baccarat shoe or               
pre-determined number of roulette spins or pre-determined sports bets.....then assume a worst case of losing 4 of those shoes or predetermined number of roulette spins or pre-determined sports bets in a row so that you lose 32 units ( 8 units x 4 =32 ) A losing run of 4 sequences in a row will eventually happen ...sorry about that.

You can use 5 instead of 4 to be really conservative. Also those losing sequences do not have to be in a row, they can also be  a net loss of 4 or 5 sequences over a large number or sequences such as WLLWWWLLLLLWLLL  = net loss of 5 sequences.=loss of 40 units ( 5 sequences  x 8 unit lost per sequence =40 units lost )

Now assume your profit objective  is 4 units a baccarat shoe or over a               
pre-determined number of bac shoes or pre-determined roulette spins or             
pe-determined sports bets.

Then raise your bet size to 2 units which will give you an 8 unit profit and in 4 bac shoes or 4 pre-determined sequences of spins or 4 pre-determined sequences of sports bets an you should be even ( 8 x 4 units = 32 units)

You lost 32 bets and won 16 bets so you only won 16/48 bets = 33 % of your bets but you broke even by winning more on your winning bets than you lost on your losing bets.

However, over a long series of bac shoes or roulette spins  or sport bets where it takes a long time to break even, the 33% number will increase to more than 33%   
( in my example, you won the next 4 sequences in a row...which rarely happens.......)

For example, a sequence WLLLWWLLWLLWLL  gives you a net loss of 4 sequences and lose 32 units ..then raise your bets to 2 units a bet and then you get a sequence of LLWWWLLWWWLWWW so you get a net win of 4 sequences at 8 units a bet so you won 4 x 8 =32 units and you broke even

You have to set a pre-determined number of roulette spins or sports bets since there is no "shoe" in roulette or sports betting since the number of roulette spins and sports bet go on towards infinity.

In baccarat a sequence is the same as a shoe.

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: Fran7738 on February 15, 2020, 05:28:41 PM
I use sequence of 5 .  I took the idea from gr8player ( he use 7 i think)  from his  ''en ville ''  negative progression .

When a sequence is negative,  0 win-5loss , 1 win-4loss, 2 win-3loss then i triple for the next one .  If a loss again then i quit playing that shoe or i do revert to one unit betting until another winning sequence .

What i am looking for is a bet selection that produce short streak of losses and of course i have to sacrifice long streak of wins as well .
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 15, 2020, 11:33:28 PM
What i am looking for is a bet selection that produce short streak of losses and of course i have to sacrifice long streak of wins as well .

Perfect.
And this is going to happen only and only whether outcomes are springing from a unrandom source.
Since you can take for grant that live bac shoes are not randomly produced, it remains to define how, when and how much such unrandomness work on the shoes dealt from a practical point of view.

After all we are not talking about gas kinetic or Brownian movement theories, just a stu.pi.d finite 416  card arrangement following specific rules that produce A or B results.

At baccarat the A/B probability varies a lot after some multistep conditions were met or not along each shoe, thus simple linear assessments won't go but to nowhere.
The same about certain "balancement" strategies that, imo, are worthless.

To do that we have to put in action several different random walks NOT registering each hand, thus trying to negate the concept that each bac hand will be equally likely (or following the natural slight asymmetricity) at every single step of the shoe dealt. This being a complete fkng nonsense made by mathematicians or some "gambling experts" that know about baccarat what I know about astrophsyics. That is zero.

By putting in action several random walks working into a sure unrandom enviroment, some spots will provide an edge well superior to any precise edge sorting techinque.

And differently than "I know the first card nature", we'll be surely get payed.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 16, 2020, 10:56:34 PM
Imo and according to a couple of serious players the best situation to aim for is to win just one unit per shoe. Say per every playable shoe.
Hence there are no "good" or "bad" shoes, just shoes that may or not offer enough "room" to get the searched situations.
"Room" doesn't necessarily means the number of hands dealt so far. There are many of additional factors involved I don't want to discuss here.

Actually in some cardrooms shoes are still shuffled manually, say quickly and badly shuffled thus we could think to get multiple wins per each shoe, but I do not suggest to apply this strategy as bac remains a game full of traps (unless a huge betting spread is utilized after the profit was secured).

I know it's not that appealing to set up a mere +1 profit per shoe (especially knowing that not every shoe is eligible to be played), but think that we join bac tables just to win getting an astounding high probability of success and not to gamble.
Moreover we see that the "luck" factor will be placed in the remotest corner; after having assessed that a given shoe is playable, we do know that a certain event must happen at least once.
A thing confirmed by the fact that itlr profitable spots will produce points mathematically favorite at the start, meaning that no matter which side we've got to bet, itlr the side we wagered got the highest two-card value by values very different to a random environment.

Again you can measure the validity of your system/method/approach by simply controlling the percentages of the two-card highest point happening on the wagered side.
If itlr such values tend to be equal, alas the method can't work. It's just a mere kind of taxed unbeatable coin flip proposition.


as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: Albalaha on February 19, 2020, 02:44:28 AM
@alrelax,
QuoteI do not believe in trying to define card order or the meaning of Randomness and how to literally beat it. I don't believe anyone ever will and I don't believe it's possible to do any type of mechanical or scheduled wagering with successful results with consistent play.

Well, I agree with your first sentence but not with second. Actually, people did not witness any mechanical strategy so far that beats the house edge and variance both together but it is not impossible either. Until when an aeroplane was devised and successfully flew with man inside the machine, it was considered a dream only. Many people tried even silly things to do the same but all failed. Now, we not just go to continent to continent flying, we are reaching even Mars. I will not proclaim that I have done something like that recently but I am close to that. It is pretty doable.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 21, 2020, 10:51:56 PM
A supposedly random environment having the same attributes (collective) produces a miriad of subcollectives that should confirm or not that the original source was produced really randomly.
Of course we need a lot of samples to assess that as many subcollectives are formed by diluted outcomes that may present a short term positive (or negative) variance wrongly fooling or discouraging us.

The best watchdog of randomness is the statistical concept of dispersion, being the sd the most common one.
In a word, opposite results whatever taken should follow the distribution laws of the theorical probability of each result, in our example that itlr resolved results are pB=0.5068 and pP=0.4932.

We know that there's no fkng way such values are really working per each hand dealt or per every shoe dealt, being the result of two different finite 50/50 or 57.93/42.07 ratios.

A supposedly random environment having the same attributes (collective) produces a miriad of subcollectives that should confirm or not that the original source was produced really randomly.
Of course we need a lot of samples to assess that as many subcollectives are formed by diluted outcomes that may present a short term positive (or negative) variance wrongly fooling or discouraging us.

The best watchdog of randomness is the statistical concept of dispersion, being the sd the most common one.
In a word, opposite results whatever taken should follow the distribution laws of the theorical probability of each result, in our example that itlr resolved results are pB=0.5068 and pP=0.4932.

Actually we know that there's no fkng way such probability values are really working per each hand dealt or per every shoe dealt, being the result of two different finite 50/50 or 57.93/42.07 ratios.

The fact that long term values tend to more and more approach such values doesn't necessarily mean each shoe dealt is randomly placed. In reality an astounding amount of two fighting results are not getting the sd values expected for a mere theorical probability. What we need to set up a long term unbeatable plan.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on February 22, 2020, 06:37:51 PM
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on February 16, 2020, 10:56:34 PM
Imo and according to a couple of serious players the best situation to aim for is to win just one unit per shoe. Say per every playable shoe.
Hence there are no "good" or "bad" shoes, just shoes that may or not offer enough "room" to get the searched situations.
"Room" doesn't necessarily means the number of hands dealt so far. There are many of additional factors involved I don't want to discuss here.

Actually in some cardrooms shoes are still shuffled manually, say quickly and badly shuffled thus we could think to get multiple wins per each shoe, but I do not suggest to apply this strategy as bac remains a game full of traps (unless a huge betting spread is utilized after the profit was secured).

I know it's not that appealing to set up a mere +1 profit per shoe (especially knowing that not every shoe is eligible to be played), but think that we join bac tables just to win getting an astounding high probability of success and not to gamble.
Moreover we see that the "luck" factor will be placed in the remotest corner; after having assessed that a given shoe is playable, we do know that a certain event must happen at least once.
A thing confirmed by the fact that itlr profitable spots will produce points mathematically favorite at the start, meaning that no matter which side we've got to bet, itlr the side we wagered got the highest two-card value by values very different to a random environment.

Again you can measure the validity of your system/method/approach by simply controlling the percentages of the two-card highest point happening on the wagered side.
If itlr such values tend to be equal, alas the method can't work. It's just a mere kind of taxed unbeatable coin flip proposition.


as.

You write so many things that are spot on.  To those people that play mostly 'on-line' I would say they will tend to be less agreeable.  And, like yourself, I rather not get into discussions as to the technicality of the on-line gambler versus the brick and motor live casino gambler.  Two different sets of everything, IMO!

Things will work and the same things will not work, in the same shoe or the following shoe or 3 or 5 shoes later or switching tables, etc. 

As I have been attempting to express, define and bring out the type of play I am involved in at B&M casinos, it is not always easy to write about.  Yes, some things are left out and other things I write about are drug out.  I do not know anyway to make all happy any longer here.

A great example was the other night at the casino.  The shoe was a classic gold mine waiting to be picked.  IMO, years ago the casino would have got smacked and I mean big time, like hundreds of thousands of dollars would have went flying out of the dealers rack.  But today the highest majority of the people do not play the way they used to, like pre-2005'ish lets say.  Rarely these days is the casino hurt.  Almost every hand it is pick up $3,000 or $4,000 and pay out $800 or $1,500.  Or pick up $8,000 and pay out $3,000 or pick up $1,000 and pay out $150.  You get the drift. 

Playing for the CUT, meaning the opposite or playing for something to happen, will almost with the highest majority of the times, grind the player right down with his buy in.  If you are playing for a one unit win and that is it, that is very easily done with time, willpower and nothing else to do.  (I will repeat myself, I have a full time business, I have other things I do, I have family, I do not go to a casino-hang all day or all night and spend countless hours each and every day on the gaming floors).  Nothing wrong, I just do not do that.  With that said, I was at the casino the other night.  The shoe was a few ones and twos the way it started, then 2 rows of Players side wins the first one 8 Players repeating than one Banker then one Player then one Banker then another 9 Players repeating themselves once again. 

I watched in amazement how every single person on that table except for one, wagered and kept wagering for the Bankers side to win.  Tens of thousand of dollars were lost to the casino. I am telling you, the newer style of baccarat is in the casinos favor, tailored by the casino and most of its dealers, the set ups and the aura in general. Couple those things with the higher internet know it all, A-Alpha male persona, etc., and the casino is a happy camper as the saying goes. 

Then after the two rows of Players side wins, there was a section of 1s, 2s and 3s.  Then the Bankers side wins almost replicated those Players side repeating wins to a T.  Except they were stronger and with more naturals and a lot of 7s over 6s, and 4s and 5s for the Bankers first two cards and the Players 3rd card killing the Players side each time.  Of course while all that was going on, almost everyone once again refused to follow but rather went on a wagering war siding with the Players side instead of what was being produced and presented, the Bankers side.  It equaled right out.  The balance of the winning hands equaled out and it does more times than not.  Then it just bounced back and forth until the end of the shoe for the following 20 hands or so.   

No matter what the shoe was producing, almost everyone was only wagering for the CUT, if it was repeating they were all convinced the next hand would go to the opposite side.  If it did CUT, they were then convinced the shoe would produce a repeat and it never did, at least 8 or 9 times out of every 10 hands.

I am just amazed at the typical players mentality these days.  And it is not in one market here, it is the same from region to region.  Sure there are some places that occasionally play the way most of us did prior to 2005 or for sure 2000.  But I would have to say it is a complete opposite turn around, more and more in the casinos favor for numerous reasons, some of which I have outlined and wrote about in the past. 


Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 22, 2020, 10:28:26 PM
I remember one occasion where I was railbirding a couple of asian players at an off Strip casino.
Knowing the minimum limit was $10, they got a hell of bankroll something like $20.000 or more.
They used a violent martingale like 1-4-10-25 and of course they started to accumulate chips.
It seemed they used a weird selection the like of wagering alternatively for the repeat and for the cut.
I stayed there and of course they lost their composure (and they money) after having crossed an "unlikely" losing streak of ten hands.
Curiously in each hand they've lost but one they got the best two-card hand, third and fourth cards made the disaster.

Ask those players about the importance to start with the best two-card hand,  :))

as.

   
   
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on February 22, 2020, 10:41:19 PM
That is the way they generally play at The Palace Station as well as the Gold Coast Casino.  Those two that is the Asian's normal way they play 24/7.  Other places have people that do the same as you described, but those two come to mind more than anywhere else in Vegas.

Comes to mind a few guys from one of the casinos I have been going to the past several months.  I think they appeared with the beginning of the 2019-2020 college school year.  So put it back around Sept/October.  3 Korean kids in college, foreign exchange students in some professional course at a grad school, either for medical/doctor or legal/law.  Their parents/family have money no doubt.  One can tell just by their clothes, super nice designer clothes.  Their buy-in can always be a round up of cash from their peers, the way it was always done on the east coast with the Asian, particular the Chinese in the larger restaurants with 75 to 300 employees or so, pooling their cash together and designating one or two people to head to Atlantic City to play it out.  But these 3 Koreans are not doing that, because no one is ever watching them. 

Anyway, they only play the CUT or 1 or 2 repeats, that is it.  Consistently, always.  They been here for about 4 months now, playing about 4 or 5 times a week.  They win, they lose of course.  They are close to table max bettors more than 50% of the time they are wagering.  They do not wager every hand and they play a few shoes at most.  However, what does stick out is their remarks, their reactions and their physically gestures. 

You know they read about the game on the internet and/or YouTube.  Probably they also were told about it from other peers of theirs.  Combine the two and their inexperience and gullibility, and that leads to, lets experiment with mom and dads cash, at least that is my summation anyway. 

Say they are on the Bank with a two card 6 and the Players side has a 1 or 2 or a 3.  You can see their facial gestures and smiles if you look at them without that 3rd card coming out for the Players side.  9 times out of 10, they are raising their hands and pausing to high five each other, counting on a monkey or a card coming out to allow them to win of course.  Then the card comes out that brings the Players side up to a 7 or 8 or a 9 and if you just glance at their faces, you would observe a smile immediately turning to a frown or their lips silently saying, "F**k that S**t", etc., etc. Repeatedly.

Or say they were on the Players side and the player had a 2 card 7 and the Bankers side had two monkeys or a total of 0.  Then the 3rd card for the Bankers side comes out and it is an 8 or a 9.  Yes, this does not happen every time, but when it is happening and continues to happen, an experienced bac player knows to back off and not to martingale or employ anything of the likes.

The other night repeatedly, the Players side would have a 2 card 0 or a total of 1 or 2 and the Bankers side would have a two card total of 0.  If they were on the Players side they would pull something to reduce them to 0 or stay at the two card total of 1 maybe.  Then the Bankers side would pull a real low card, every time, but just enough to beat the Players by say one or two.  Then they switch to the Bankers side and then exact same thing began to happen.  Once again, their faces and their gestures are comical.  Maybe one day they will learn, it is not over until it is over.  They can not be over 21 or 22, so maybe they have a total of a year experience or so? 

Another night they did pretty well.  This is not a high dollar casino, just a $5,000.00 or so table max.  But they were up probably $40,000 to $50,000 or so.  Then they ran into a section of 15-20 hands where almost every hand is only a 2 card draw.  Each side having 6 or better.  Like I said, this went on for like a solid 15-20 hands, which in our B&M casinos, means a solid 30-45 minuets of time.  Whenever they had a 7, the other side had a Natural 8.  If they had a Natural 8 the other side had the same or even a Natural 9. 

Watching their faces and their super obvious frustration, produced their extremely noticeable unbelievability.  IMO, one knows they obtained their gaming instructions and references from some system or some YouTube $99.00 something another, etc. 


 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 24, 2020, 11:12:59 PM
That's why a multiple multi-level random walks distribution will help us to restrict the variance at the lowest limits.

Whenever different random walks would elicit to bet the same side, we know our probability of success will get astounding values, a strong undeniable proof that shoes are not randomly produced or that a kind of detectable dependency works on most part of shoes dealt.
Technically it's what we call a "convergence of probability", a term coined several years ago by a roulette expert.

Theorically at any independent or very slight dependent proposition, any random walk (no matter how many r.w.'s we want to launch simultaneously) each spot we decide to bet will get the expected deviations considered at a kind of 50/50 game, say at a 0.5068/0.4932 p values.

Practically things go in a different way, as many spots MUST happen within a restricted range of hands dealt.

All depends on how we want to classify outcomes, and you know the worst tool we can utilize is by considering hands as B or P simple successions.
Actually casinos offer those st.u.p.id roads displayed on the screen as they know very well they are totally worthless.
Even considering those 5 different derived roads as 5 random walks, no way a convergence of probability may happen as they are taking into account EACH resolved hand (3 roads) or real BPT results (remaining 2 roads).

Remember, I'm here to disprove the real randomness of shoes dealt or the general undetectable slight dependency, it's not a coincidence that my plans get rid of many hands that tend to confuse the whole picture.

Say that after certain conditions are met, we could set up a simpler unb plan #3, one which could wager against the multiple formations of 3+ streaks on both sides.

It's not the final solution to beat this game, nonetheless it's a good start.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 25, 2020, 03:00:44 AM
What's what I name as a multi-level random walk?

It's a mechanical preordered betting scheme made by building one of the several subcollectives derived from the original BP succession. Not necessarily considering each outcome of the original succession.

As long as the attributes to build such subcollectives remain constant, we know that a supposedly random source must produce the same features on every new collective we had built. Regardless of place selection and probability after events features that definitely will confirm or not the real randomness of the sample. 

Next week more about the construction of such r.w.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: Lungyeh on February 25, 2020, 03:30:45 AM
Sometimes, ok most times, when I read Asymbacguy posts, I feel myself reading a scientific journal or a chemistry reference book because I am totally lost.

Kudos to your scientific and mathematical approach to the game. I posted before some news about a group mathematically making hundreds of millions from horse betting. So I suppose it can be done also for baccarat or roulette.

I wish I have the mathematical inclination .....
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: Fran7738 on February 28, 2020, 07:25:21 PM
[/fontImo and according to a couple of serious players the best situation to aim for is to win just one unit per shoe. Say per every playable shoe.

If your unit size is 5000$ and you get that win 4 times a week x 50 weeks ...  I would be more than happy and then forget about gambling .
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 29, 2020, 10:38:31 PM
Thanks Lungyeh, I hope to give you very soon a direct demonstration of what I'm talking about.

@Fran7738, you took the point.
I guess many casinos know that bac is beatable, the game is still alive as most players like to gamble.
At the winning rate you've suggested the probability of success is very very very close to 1.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 01, 2020, 12:24:35 AM
Before going into details of what a multi-level random walk is, let me know how the fkng fk you can lose by MM assessing three simple different one-step r.w.'s working on B double consecutiveness considered at the levels #1, #2 and #3. Where #1 and #2 scenarios take an astounding primary role.

Even if casinos know such B doubles detectable distribution, thus maybe voluntarly fixing outcomes to get a lot of consecutive B doubles, we can easily build many other r.w.'s collecting results by undetectable ways, mainly by coding results as I or O results thus negating a random distribution.

as.





Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on March 01, 2020, 02:53:46 AM
Quote from: Fran7738 on February 28, 2020, 07:25:21 PM
[/fontImo and according to a couple of serious players the best situation to aim for is to win just one unit per shoe. Say per every playable shoe.

If your unit size is 5000$ and you get that win 4 times a week x 50 weeks ...  I would be more than happy and then forget about gambling .

You would need a huge bankroll and I would estimate between $300,000 to $400,000 of disposable income that you can draw down on because you would have periods of 20 to 30 attempts or presentments that will fail.

Anything is possible in the game of Baccarat but if you're going to consecutively wager and have a stop loss of three, four or five units you are going to have a drawdown at least 30 units before you start to even make anything back.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 06, 2020, 11:24:23 PM
Putting things in a simple way, bac is beatable itlr as it's made by continuous asymmetrical propositions, most of them not easily detectable by common standards.
We are here to (partially) demonstrate that such constant asymmetricity (rules, card distribution, key cards concentration/dilution, finiteness of the shoe) will be endorsed by the paramount inference of unrandomness.

More practically speaking, profitable spots arise from a strict scientifical convergence of probability measure where different r.w.'s dictate or not to wager the same B/P result being the  reflex of a I/O situation.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 14, 2020, 09:20:31 PM
Suppose we want to classify BP outcomes assigning 1 to any B result and 2 to any P result.
Thus a sequence as BPBBBPPBPBP becomes 1-2-1-1-1-2-2-1-2-1-2

Now let's add the number on the left with the adjacent number placed on the right in a way to build another subsequence.
In our example, we'll get 3-3-2-2-3-4-3-3-3-3

The number of "runs", that is situations where a number stays at the same level are transformed from 7 in the original sequence to 5 in the new one.

Before continuing let's see what happens on strong streaky BP situations as

BBBBBPPPBBPPPPPPPBBBBBBPPPPP =

1-1-1-1-1-2-2-2-1-1-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-1-1-1-1-1-1-2-2-2-2-2

then

2-2-2-2-3-4-4-3-2-3-4-4-4-4-4-4-3-2-2-2-2-2-3-4-4-4-4

here the number of runs is 6 on the original sequence and 11 on the new one.

or a "choppy" sequence as

BPBPBPPBPBBPBPBPBPPBPBPB

1-2-1-2-1-2-2-1-2-1-1-2-1-2-1-2-1-2-2-1-2-1-2-1 =

3-3-3-3-3-4-3-3-3-2-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-4-3-3-3-3

Number of runs shifts from 21 to 7.

Let's try to fictionally build a shoe getting many runs on our new sequence.
Easy to do, we need many different sums coming in fast succession.
Example:

BPPBBPPBBPPBBPPBBPPBB =

1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1  (runs= 9)

3-4-3-2-3-4-3-2-3-4-3-2-3-4-3-2 (runs= 16)

Nothing special so far, it's just another way to consider the hands distribution taken from a simple B/P point of view. A wrong point of view. But...


as.   
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 14, 2020, 10:34:37 PM
Those new derived subsequences are not forming random successions as 2 cannot go to 4 and 4 cannot go to 2 without crossing the 3 step.
Moreover no matter how whimsical is the original BP succession, any shoe will produce a given number of  2-3 / 3-2 or 3-4 / 4-3 steps.

Notice that we shouldn't give a damned fk about the lenght of same level values, let alone the exact or approximated final number of runs. We instead should focus about the actual probability to get one or a couple of runs on different portions of the shoe.

If the original succession is perfectly randomly placed, the subsequent derived collectives cannot give us profitable betting spots as in order to get an advantage we must put in action certain random walks anyway.
I mean that a perfect random original sequence cannot form low dispersion values on derived situations no matter how sophisticated they are intended, what we really need to set up an unbeatable plan.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 15, 2020, 01:54:13 AM
Next why some random walks applied to baccarat are better than others. The decisive tool to destroy this fkng beautiful game.

as.

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 20, 2020, 10:40:15 PM
We've seen that every shoe in the universe can be considered just as a 2-3-4 sequence of runs.
In my example I've chosen to consider the simple hand to hand registration, meaning that every resolved hand will be eligible to be listed.
Moreover hands are considered by a simple B=1 and P=2 registration.

Now say we do not want to simply assign the 1 value to B and 2 value to P, instead 1 to an identical situation and 2 to an opposite situation taken at a given mechanically preordered pace.

If the results succession will be really randomly placed, we know this tool won't affect the dispersion values. Technically speaking, we want to disprove the common knowledge that any mechanical preordered plan will be insensitive to every place selection strategy. The only way to prove this game is beatable.

There are infinite ways to set up random walks trying to disprove a perfect randomness, being the runs distribution the common denominator.

Any bac hand/pattern distribution is a complex result made of three finite different forces acting along a slight dependent model:

1- asymmetricity favoring B side

2- very slight propensity to get the opposite result just happened

3- key cards distribution (low cards should be considered as key cards as 8s/9s)

Taking those three factors together some r.w.'s are more inclined to provide a higher number of runs.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 22, 2020, 10:32:02 PM
Making things in a more complicated way, we could set up many different r.w.'s utillizing a pace different than 1.
After all the general law of independence of the results should work no matter how deep we want to classify the outcomes, right?

Thus a BPBBPPBPBBBBBBPBPPPPBPBBPPB succession could be

1-2-1-1-2-2-1-2-1-1-1-1-1-1-2-1-2-2-2-2-1-2-1-1-2-2-1 (1 pace) or

1-1-2-1-1-1-1-2-2-2-1-1-2-1 (2 pace) or

1-1-1-1-1-1-2-2-2 (3 pace)

Again summing the two adjacent numbers from left to right we'll get:

1 pace) 3-3-2-3-4-3-3-3-2-2-2-2-2-3-3-3-4-4-4-3-3-3-2-3-4-3 (runs: 12)

2 pace) 2-3-3-2-2-2-3-4-4-3-2-3-3 (runs: eight)

3 pace) 2-2-2-2-2-3-4-4 (runs: 3)

Skipping certain outcomes provides a better evaluation of the place selection impact, that is the main factor by which certain subsequences must be considered as collectives or not.
And naturally in this example the best indicator is the number of runs.

We should convert what others call "stop loss" or stop wins" cutoff points with the simple number of runs, especially if we want to disprove a real randomness.

Without boring to test many shoes, it's intuitive that a kind of asymmetrical force is acting along the way on the vast majority of shoes dealt, our task should be directed to spot the shoes where such asym force will be more likely to act on certain points.

Now let's sat we want to follow two opposite players, one player A wishing to parlay his bet up to 5 steps toward a new same number situation (being 2, 3 or 4) and the other one B wishing to make a progressive plan toward not getting same number clusters (up to 5 steps).

Player A will win anytime 5 or more consecutive homogeneous situations will show up (2-2..-3-3..-4-4.. 3-3, etc) and player B will win anytime a given number won't be clustered up to 5 times.

From a math point of view both players will get the same results getting different W/L frequencies.
In the practice things go quite differently.

as.   
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 23, 2020, 02:17:43 AM
Summarizing:

- no way you can find a long term profitable betting plan without speculating that outcomes are not perfectly randomly placed as random bac outcomes are unbeatable by a 1 billion degree. 

-  to ascertain outcomes are not properly random produced only place selection and probability after events tools can help you by strict scientifically accurate assessments. Some bac productions are better than others, meaning they involve a higher unrandomness factor.

- best way to take an advantage without suffering the variance impact is by looking just for one unit profit per a given amount of hands.

- no matter how's your strategy and which side you choose to bet, each set of two consecutive wagers must get a way higher 75% probability to win. Considering as Banker side as a steady advantaged option is one of the biggest mistake to make. Asym hands favoviring Banker don't come out so often, especially whether consecutively taken.

-  the game cannot be altered or predicted by human considerations, otherwise it wouldn't exist.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on March 23, 2020, 03:43:41 AM
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on March 23, 2020, 02:17:43 AM
Summarizing:

- no way you can find a long term profitable betting plan without speculating that outcomes are not perfectly randomly placed as random bac outcomes are unbeatable by a 1 billion degree. 

-  to ascertain outcomes are not properly random produced only place selection and probability after events tools can help you by strict scientifically accurate assessments. Some bac productions are better than others, meaning they involve a higher unrandomness factor.

- best way to take an advantage without suffering the variance impact is by looking just for one unit profit per a given amount of hands.

- no matter how's your strategy and which side you choose to bet, each set of two consecutive wagers must get a way higher 75% probability to win. Considering as Banker side as a steady advantaged option is one of the biggest mistake to make. Asym hands favoviring Banker don't come out so often, especially whether consecutively taken.

-  the game cannot be altered or predicted by human considerations, otherwise it wouldn't exist.

as.

Explaining certain finds are difficult.  Great writing.

Add my Sections & Turning Points and a player can start capitalize!

And so many baccarat players forget about that 5th card coming out that more often favors the players side rather than the bankers.   Especially with something that's foreseeable within a section.

Such as when the players have zero or even a 1, so often players pull that big card meaning a six, seven or eight and it puts the bankers out of the game for that hand or the players have that three, four, five or six and the players pull that small card again it puts the bankers out of the game for that hand.  And it happens repeatedly within a section like three or four players to one Banker, four or five players to one or two bankers then another one or two or three players to one banker and then three or four players to one or two bankers and then a little mini run comes out of 5, 6, 7, 8 players to one or two Bankers before it straightens out. 

And it's so easy to capitalize on all those players versus waiting for the bank to get strong. At least in my opinion, you know what I'm talking about.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 23, 2020, 04:22:55 AM
Dear friend, I'm just looking forward to play with you and Lung (and maybe few others), I mean serious money I know three of us get.

Let's wait this fkng Covid-19 stuff stops.

as.






 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on March 23, 2020, 05:04:46 AM
Oh yeah, don't forget some of the other things I wrote and one of the most important is  0, 1, 2, 3 ties and how things seem to stay the same no matter if it's players or ones and twos or whatever, but I find that holds true more so towards strong  players or chopping rather than Banker's clumping together, reference the low amounts of ties such as what's in these two shoes in the link.

https://betselection.cc/wagering-intricacies/heavy-player-bet-what-is-being-presented/
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 23, 2020, 10:06:28 PM
Ties are a complicated issue as any method must get rid of those "unresolved BP hands".
Yet they exist consuming space and cards.
In addition ties are way more likely when 6 cards are utilized to form a hand.

I fear that shoes containing a lot of ties perhaps are less manageable when using a "fixed" plan, but it would take a lot of time to ascertain their real impact over the different registrations I've discussed here.

Surely after a tie future real BP probabilities change, very slightly maybe still they change.

It should be interesting to study how many cards are utilized per each shoe in relationship of the r.w.'s applied, for example.
Notoriously most likely winning hands are formed by only 4 cards then by 5 cards. When more cards are utilized to produce a hand a sort of dilution effect may come out.

Anyway I firmly believe that any valuable method, system or approach when dictating to bet B or P that side must contain a mathematical advantaged situation on the first two cards dealt.
Therefore if I passed 70 minutes to wait for a profitable situation and I'm betting Player, I want Player to show a standing or natural point and not a K-4 catching a third card 4 vs a Banker standing 7.
Of course we could win a hand as underdog (or losing it as huge favorite), I'd prefer to lose it being favorite.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 23, 2020, 10:59:09 PM
Now suppose that in order to build our new sequences, instead of considering normal BP results we use the blue and red spots of the three displayed derived roads (big eye boy, small road and cockroach road).
Again we decide to assign the 1 value to red spots and 2 to blue spots.
Then we sum the two adjacent numbers from left to right.

Do have those new sequences the same features belonging to the sequences derived by the original BP succession?

as. 



Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 31, 2020, 10:21:10 AM
Moreover could we connect in some way the three derived roads in order to get a unique distribution (r.w.) where dispersion values are way lower than expected?
Obviously knowing that only when all roads dictate to bet the same side such new r.w. exists and, more importantly, is bettable.

as.   
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: Lungyeh on March 31, 2020, 10:35:03 AM
When all 3 roads predicting the same outcome supported by a definitive ?highway? on the Pearl chart, you can be sure its coming out the opposite. Pearl is the vertical presentation of 6 lines down. ?Highway? means across the horizontal line, all are the same for eg on the 3rd horizontal row across say 4 columns its all Banker so on the 5 th column the highway concept is expecting also a Banker. If this is supporter by all the 3 roads pointing to a banker, I would refrain from betting Banker or maybe minimise my bet as the whole table would be pouring on to Banker.

Its not schadenfreude to see a Player win in such a case but it happens too often. If it is so certain, the casinos would be taken to the cleaners. Just some reading. You of course, are free to disagree.

Stay blessed. First time playing online as Malaysia is locked down and the only casino here, Genting is closed. Online is with live dealers and 5 tables. Interesting. Like the stadium concept
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on March 31, 2020, 12:54:01 PM
Can I please interject here and just give my opinion?

That is, it is beatable, but it can also beat you.

The highest majority, not all but the highest majority of all players will not capitalize on the opportunities that are being presented by the shoe and then when they do they are so convinced  that's how they can beat it

Then the Dominos fall for the rest of the shoe or the following shoe, if you get what I mean.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on April 03, 2020, 08:39:16 PM
Hi Lungyeh.
It's very very very likely players won't build long term profitable random walks (that is r.w.'s getting very low variance) by simply assembling the outcomes of the three derived roads I'm referring to (beb, sr and cockroach r).

And considering bead plate (placing outcomes in columns of 6 hands each) doesn't make the job. Dispersion values applied to such mechanical road are adhering to expected situations, that is to an unbeatable world.

Imo to get a long term profitable plan we must get rid of many unnecessary hands, those tending to surpass certain cutoff values that can easily hurt our strategy.
And from a strict statistical point of view, profitable situations won't arise so often. This because a supposedly unrandom world (the only one cause that make us long term winners) wil be quite diluted.

Imo the only way to beat baccarat is by considering strong asymmetrical random walks applied to a slight asymmetrical model as baccarat is.

For example, the situation where "infinite" PBB patterns show up in succession is one of the simplest event we should look for.
No matter how many P hands come between a PBB pattern and a new single B hand, we know that our plan starts after a precise situation happened. That is a sort of compromise between the most math probability to get another B and the very very slight propensity to get the opposite hand (P).

Vast majority of card distributions will place asymmetrical results on this plan, not necessarily strong favoring one event or the other one.
Of course it could "easily" happen on some shoes that the same asym situation will go on and on, meaning that our asymmetrical strategy will be canceled by an unlikely card distribution transforming a steady asym world into a seemingly symmetrical model.

Later some thoughts about derived roads.

as.

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on April 03, 2020, 09:05:23 PM
Quote from: alrelax on March 31, 2020, 12:54:01 PM
The highest majority, not all but the highest majority of all players will not capitalize on the opportunities that are being presented by the shoe and then when they do they are so convinced  that's how they can beat it

True, yet they do not realize that profitable opportunities won't come out around the corner.
That's why casinos entice players to bet every hand dealt, a sure recipe for disaster.

as. 


Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on April 05, 2020, 11:06:58 PM
Think that no way a card distrbution working into an asymmetrical model can get symmetrical results for long and at various degrees. So in some sense and in order to build a long term plan we are compelled to wager towards asymmetricity. Unrandomness enforces such asymmetricity. 

Statistically speaking, it's just the number of runs (whatever intended) that confirm or not the randomness of our sample.
Since you can take for granted that live shoes aren't random produced, we are forced to evaluate the number and the probability to get asym results per every shoe dealt.

We know that card distributions can produce infinite results, yet the probability to get something is endorsed by restricting outcomes that tend to go beyond given points and we know that the best way to limit the results is by classifying them into 1, 2 and 3 situations.

Transforming into math such probabilites, we know that 1=50%, 2=25% and 3=25%.
Of course when wagering B side 1 probability is lower than 2 and, at at a lesser degree, 3>2 and the oppposite is true about P side.
Nonetheless and from a strict bet selection point of view, such asym values won't get much of a difference.

Best example is by considering my up #2, spots where we'll win first by hoping for a B single as it's lowering the general B>P propensity as itlr previous BB trigger must involve a kind of already worn-out asymmetrical force (providing BB-B gaps are close). Whether such asym math force hadn't acted yet, probability to get another B hand after a BB pattern is generally endorsed.

For the same reasons any 3 event will be followed or not by another 3 event and the general probability will be always 0.25%. Yet the actual probability is quite lowered or raised in some shoes and dependent on which random walks we choose to follow.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: argalim147 on April 05, 2020, 11:28:20 PM
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on April 05, 2020, 11:06:58 PM
Think that no way a card distrbution working into an asymmetrical model can get symmetrical results for long and at various degrees. So in some sense and in order to build a long term plan we are compelled to wager towards asymmetricity. Unrandomness enforces such asymmetricity. 

Statistically speaking, it's just the number of runs (whatever intended) that confirm or not the randomness of our sample.
Since you can take for granted that live shoes aren't random produced, we are forced to evaluate the number and the probability to get asym results per every shoe dealt.

We know that card distributions can produce infinite results, yet the probability to get something is endorsed by restricting outcomes that tend to go beyond given points and we know that the best way to limit the results is by classifying them into 1, 2 and 3 situations.

Transforming into math such probabilites, we know that 1=50%, 2=25% and 3=25%.
Of course when wagering B side 1 probability is lower than 2 and, at at a lesser degree, 3>2 and the oppposite is true about P side.
Nonetheless and from a strict bet selection point of view, such asym values won't get much of a difference.

Best example is by considering my up #2, spots where we'll win first by hoping for a B single as it's lowering the general B>P propensity as itlr previous BB trigger must involve a kind of already worn-out asymmetrical force (providing BB-B gaps are close). Whether such asym math force hadn't acted yet, probability to get another B hand after a BB pattern is generally endorsed.

For the same reasons any 3 event will be followed or not by another 3 event and the general probability will be always 0.25%. Yet the actual probability is quite lowered or raised in some shoes and dependent on which random walks we choose to follow.

as.

In some baccarat forums i have read that gamblers with a very good success used such strategy - in random.org get a random number from 0 to 1 list and, using 0 as banker and 1 as player, were betting in baccarat. What you can say about such a  method where bets are pre-determined ?
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on April 06, 2020, 09:57:48 PM
Difficult to answer without getting enough informations.

I think a predetermined plan must be set up simply by precise arithmetically solutions related to actual situations. Without those we're not going anywhere, imo.

Say I want to bet Player two times at resolved hands #35 and #36 after hands #1 and #23 have all shown Banker.
General probability will dictate that my probability of success will be 0.4932 x 0.4932, that is I'll lose both bets 25.68% of the times.
But if such hands will not involve an asym situation math favoring B side, the probability to lose is no higher than 25% and probably some card distributions favoring P side are lowering such percentage, hence my two consecutive bets will be EV+.
Is this predetermined plan going to get me an advantage? Of course it isn't.
Maybe those trigger hands were not involving an asymmetrical situation, thus slight enlarging the probablity to get one right on my selected bets, thus lowering my p.o.s. And vice versa.

Taken the problem by another perspective I could argue that the probability to get all Bankers on hands #1, #23, #35 and #36 is quite lowered as I'm considering distant outcomes.

Thinking this way I could build infinite random walks just to see whether my many 4 hand-patterns will confirm or not the general probability to happen.
But it's only the quality factor on the triggers chosen that makes the difference and not a relationship between two very different models not considering the "how".

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on April 12, 2020, 09:00:52 PM
Imo it's only the connection of various patterns happening along any shoe that can make this game beatable.
Connection means the relationship working among different situations (r.w.'s) that show up along any shoe.
In this way we are not betting toward getting a steady state for long, instead to get a given state change after certain states not belonging to our multiple r.w.'s plan had occurred.

Nothing wrong to "ride" homogeneuos or shifted patterns, providing we have a solid reason to do that.
For example, if many asymmetrical hands provided only Player hands (thus inverting a sure general math advantage favoring B) future hands will be more likely to be symmetrically placed, hence any P bet payed 1:1 will be better than any B bet payed 0.95:1.
The argument by which future hands will be more likely placed on B side as "it is more due" is ridiculous. Any missed math opportunity having a low frequency of apparition is a missed opportunity for B side, period.
But we know that such situations arise by a quite low frequency thus we need more frequent occasions to put our money at risk.

Any shoe that baccarat's gods can provide is formed by multiple pattern steps, name them as runs, homogeneous patterns or whatever.
Now casinos will make their business by knowing that itlr our plans will get a lesser amount of homogeneous (easily detectable) patterns than any other situation. Moreover and from a strict math point of view every our bet is EV-, thus we'll surely go broke.

Sometimes shoes will provide easy betting situations (long runs, long chops, strong predominance, etc) and that's the main strategy 99.9% of bac players rely upon.
Unfortunately this is a short term favourable occurence.

More interesting is the fact that no matter what will be the future results distribution, some random walks will get an advantage or, better sayed, that some r.w.'s do not dictate to bet anything unless certain conditions are met. Some conditions are easily detcetable and others are more intricated.
If this way of thinking would be flawed, dispersion values wouldn't be affected by such kind of selection.

To get a practical example, think about how many 1-2 and 1-3 situations or BB consecutive doubles are coming or not after a given amount of hands dealt.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on April 13, 2020, 03:29:22 AM
I have posted pics of shoes with what i call, Sections.  And exactly what you  said here:  "Sometimes shoes will provide easy betting situations (long runs, long chops, strong predominance, etc) and that's the main strategy 99.9% of bac players rely upon.  Unfortunately this is a short term favourable occurence.", is spot on!
With the keywords being, sometimes and short term.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on April 13, 2020, 10:55:03 PM
Exactly and it's not a coincidence that I've started this thread mentioning Kashiwagi and not only because he was one of the biggest high stakes bac player ever.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on April 21, 2020, 10:21:00 PM
Start thinking that any bac shoe dealt is asymmetrically placed as cards cannot be symmetrically placed along any single shoe, moreover as bac rules are not symmetrically intended. 
It's up to us to spot the situations where such asymmetricity gets a valuable strenght capable to invert the fkng house edge. And to be consistent long term winners we need just few spots to be ahead. 

It's intuitive that such asymmetricity cannot last for long or, better sayed, that this asym factor works at different degrees per any shoe dealt.

Notice that I'm not talking about Banker advantage, to get such advantage we need precise situations to appear as P drawing and B getting a 3,4,5 or 6 initial point.

Whenever a given asym level is surpassed (whatever intended), no one prediction is possible as the asym strenght will be "randomly" placed more often than not.

That's why is important to play shoes where asym levels won't reach huge values at the start.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: RickK on April 23, 2020, 12:19:19 PM
as...thanks for your information and perspective. Certainly is more than just interesting....I've read and re-read your posts and not sure I understand all of it, but I was able to use the asymmetrical "hand" in a few live sessions before things shut down...and was pretty successful with it.. in your post above, you refer to asymmetrical shoes...is there a larger asymmetrical picture we should be looking for or tracking in addition the just the individual hands ?  Again, appreciate your posts and looking forward to learning more. Thanks again...
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on April 23, 2020, 02:57:27 PM
Hi Rick and thanks!

I know the suggestions I'm disorderly posting cannot give the reader precise betting guidelines, it's made on purpose.

Yep, you took one of the fundamental points to beat bac.
Instead of wagering hoping for this or that or, even worse, to play general probabilities, we should focus to understand the asymmetrical level of the actual shoe.
To do that we need to put into action several r.w.'s, setting up the actual relative probability compared to the general 0.5068/0.4932 proposition.
If the dispersion values taken from a place selection point of view remain unchanged, baccarat is not beatable.

In a sense, we do not want to simply bet toward asymmetricity but instead toward certain different levels of asymmetricity that are present per each shoe dealt.
And of course the most favourable situation to look for is 1.

I'll write more on that in few days.

Cheers!

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on April 27, 2020, 09:44:37 PM
A deck of cards shuffled decently is asymmetrical by definition.
Let's shuffle numerous times a simple 52 cards deck and register how many times three or four same suit cards are coming out consecutively. Of course after something had happened (say many spades were turned out), the future probability to get those consecutive suited cards on diamonds, clubs and hearts is enlarged in some way.
But no one would be so naive to think that after any single diamonds, clubs or hearts card coming out the future probability will be always enlarged or at least included within playable terms (assuming the game is EV-).
We could easily get a lot of decks with a low spades impact producing many D,C and H consecutive sequences not belonging to the 3 or 4 same suit occurence we are looking for.

Of course one could think that a possible strategic plan may be oriented  NOT to get long same suit sequences up to a point and naturally based upon the partial aknowledge of the removed cards nature as we've seen about the spades example.
And one could think that same suit cards on next decks may be "clumped" in some way as a physically perfect shuffle doesn't exist at all.

At baccarat things work differently as removed cards cannot sensibly affect future outcomes, yet baccarat is an asymmetrical proposition at the start and at every single point even without the natural asymmetrical cards impact.
Anyway the asym-asym value is so high that it's impossible any single deck dealt in the universe will be symmetrically placed as, simply put, symmetricity at baccarat cannot exist.

Now the problem is to spot the situations where a constant asymmetrical proposition made on two different levels (bac rules and card distribution) will reach very low dispersion values as something is "more due" no matter what.

Suppose casinos know the B doubles vulnerability and start arranging shoes to produce a lot of consecutive B doubles.
Who cares?
The B double plan is just one random walk, for example many B doubles will entice the probability to get many 1-2 B situations and we need just one to be ahead.
Casinos will arrange shoes to get a lot of B doubles and B 3+ streaks without any B single trigger thus destroying one half of my ub #1? Perfect, the vast majority of baccarat players will wager to follow the consecutive B streaks line.

Since almost no one bac shoe won't present at least one B single, we know that either plan #1 or #2 will get at least one win, more often (say everytime) multiple wins.

More on that tomorrow.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on April 28, 2020, 10:22:17 PM
The "alignment" curiosity

Suppose we want to arrange cards forming a shoe which provides all Banker or Player hands.
For simplicity we use just one deck.

One of the numerous card distribution producing all banker hands (and no ties) is:

A, A, K, 5, 3, 2, 3, 2, 2, K, 4, 10, 3, 9, 6, Q, J, 7, 5, 8, 5, 8, 5, 8, J, 10, 9, 7, A, Q, A, 6, 6, 4, 10, 4, J, 9, J, 2, 10, K, 4, K, 3, 8, Q, Q, 7, 9. (6,7 left as they can't produce a hand)

Such sequence provides 11 straight Banker hands and no tie:

B B B B B B B B B B B

Now let's remove from the play the first card (A) from the play and see what happens:

P P T B B B B B B B

Or the first two cards (A, A):

B B T B B B B B B B

Finally the first three cards (A, A, K):

P B T B B B B B B B

We see that results are not much affected by burning one, two o three cards and such thing happens with a lot of decks. In a sense we could deduce that this card distribution is Banker polarized; it's just a matter of time that results will be aligned with the original untouched sequence.

Even when multiple decks are utilized or no substantial card clumping is present (as 2-3 and 5-8 in the example),  things go quite in the same way, at least on the vast majority of the shoes dealt.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: Lungyeh on April 29, 2020, 03:45:33 AM
isn't that because as the number of cards are taken away or used, there will come a time when it coincides with the intended pattern.

Mmm. Its food for thought.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: RickK on May 04, 2020, 01:45:16 PM

View Profile Personal Message (Online)
(No subject)
? Sent to: AsymBacGuy on: April 29, 2020, 04:08:40 pm ?ReplyQuoteDelete
as....With regard to your last 2 posts, are you indicating that polarized (or strong side) sections of the shoe may be determined by a trigger of some sort, i.e. card values, or asym hands or lack of asym hands ) as opposed to a visual pattern that one side is starting to occur more frequently than the other ? Thanks
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 05, 2020, 09:13:40 PM
Hi Rickk!

Obviously patterns are the direct product of either math and card distribution.
To be consistent winners on long terms we need both.

For example there's no point to bet Banker if we have reasons to think that no asym hands will come out shortly or, it's the same, that many previous asym hands got the Player side winning.
We can't get a shoe featuring 20 or zero asym hands, anyway naturals and standing points must show up at a value well exceeding 1/3 of the total hands dealt. Those situations are the math advantaged hands, even though a favorite standing 7 will lose to a natural 8 or to a miracle 6 falling to the opposite underdog 2 point.
How much those "unfortunate" (or mistakenly considered "lucky") events will impact over the long run? I guess at a lesser degree than what the most likely course is going to take along the way. 

Therefore a valuable betting method must be set up onto two different levels: math advantaged situations or card distributions so polarized that even the Player side may be slight advantaged.

We see that it's more difficult to spot or concentrate real Banker advantaged situations as the asym general probability is 8.4%, whereas Player side can be underdog just on those asym hands.
Of course Player side never get the astounding math advantage of 15.86% working on its asym hands, even knowing that the asym impact is a well finite factor.

Example.

We set up a mechanical plan dictating to bet one time Player side after any asym hand was produced. If a couple of asym hands were formed we'll stop the betting (that is we are trying to isolate asym math advantaged hands)
On average we'll bet 6 or 7 times, we will be hugely underdog only when consecutive asym hands will be formed. In the remaining cases we are at least playing a 0.5 no negative edge game (as linear card counting is a bighornshit).
Naturally itlr we'll expect to get the same asym-sym and asym-asym ratios, yet the asym/total hands dealt ratio is quite restricted.
And altogether naturally is that post asym hands situations are 50% dealt but one side is payed 0.95:1 and the other one 1:1.

Our new random walk wagering 6 or 7 hands per shoe is moving around two very different probabilities: the first probability is to get or not get another strong math advantaged situation favoring B, second probability is surely set up around the 0.5 value. It's the simplest example of 'probability after events' feature.
Think that we can take into account what happens after two or more hands after an asym hand happened or after a couple of consecutive asym hands, thus building infinite random walks.

Now it's the actual card distribution that plays the decisive role as symmetricity cannot exist at all at baccarat.

The idea to restrict the succession of outcomes within simple categories working under specific circumstances tries to approximate at best the actual card distribution.
Imo and according to our long term data, 1-2, 1-3 and B2-B1/B3 are among the best indicators of the actual card distribution.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 06, 2020, 11:51:36 PM
A) 1-2

1-2 is the state where key cards are arranged quite proportionally along a given section of the shoe.
It's impossible or very very very very unlikely that a common B/P registration of such state can last for the entire shoe or most part of the shoe. A luxury offered by utlizing other form of random walks.
Obviously itlr 1-2 works better on P side than on B side.
Not surprisingly when the 1-2 state seem to be silent at the start of the shoe, the remaning portions of the shoe more often than not contain short 1-2 states. Naturally all depends about how good or bad are shuffled the cards.

B) 1-3

1-3 state is less likely to provide very long patterns and that's quite curious as given 1 as a costant, 2 should be equal to 3. Moreover 3 consumes more space than 2s thus increasing the probability to get an entire shoe or most part of it featuring this 1-3 state. 
In some way we could infer that a proportional key cards third-level arrangement on both sides is more unlikely, unless B keep forming 3s and P shows up in singles. Or, of course, that few 3s are interleft with many singles. But this being the case, we should just focus our betting on singles without risking the second bet.

C) 2-3

This state is like betting toward getting consecutive streaks, period.
In reality many shoes produce long consecutive streaks of any lenght, of course if I've omitted this state in my plans there's a reason. And the main reason is variance.
Differently to the above states, this one-level state cannot get a backup plan: either we win or we lose. And imo and according to my data there's no valid selection to try to get a kind of advantage as we can only hope that cards are clustered in one way and just one time each.

Imo the value of such state should be indirectly taken. More often than not long 2-3 situations endorse the subsequent probability of A and B states.

D) B2/B1-B3

This state starts its course after a precise condition will be met, that is a B double apparition.
Itlr any B double is the product of an asymmetrical value, even at a slight degree.
That is a small percentage of every B double is asymmetrically placed differently to what happens at Player side where such force must act oppositely.
Now we want to challenge the actual card distribution to get within a couple of hands either a quite proportional key cards distribution (Player side apparition) or, whether our previous attempt failed, a relatively shifted key cards distribution or asym situation favoring the same winning side (Banker).
In a word we're challenging the shoe to form another "same" situation just happened on that B side. And we can do this two times (betting after two B consecutive doubles), three times and so on.

In normal conditions and naturally itlr, this plan doesn't guarantee us a profit (and the same is true about the other plans) but the dispersion values calculated upon this plan are well lower than what we have been taught for years, that is that no matter which spot we select to bet into, probabilties will remain the same.

Actually tests made on LIVE shoes suggest that B doubles quality and B doubles consecutiveness produced at the start of a shoe can be a valuable trigger to evaluate the probability to get or not more B doubles.

Next time we'll see "albalaha way" how to manage real live unfortunate shoes that seem to disrupt those plans.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: Ted009 on May 08, 2020, 08:21:35 AM
Please forgive my honest 2 cent opinion here. I want to say it as honestly as I am allowed to say it here-

To win baccarat consistently or to make a living in playing baccarat, there are many many factors associated with it. Yes, discipline, patience, tutelage of the game, determination and the will, sufficiently allotted bankroll and bet selection along with the right progression is a must. For me after 17 years of learning and playing the game with real money, the most important factor in winning the game consistently is bet selection and progression. They must be equally utilized.

Know when to walk out and when to walk in.

No amount of computer testing and or practice based on the theoretical approaches will be accomplished without hands on at the table playing with your hard earned money. I don?t want any new potential or prospect players to think that it is a piece of cake to make a living playing baccarat or to win the money consistently. There is no holy grail period.

Please read, learn and practice with  real money at the table. Win or lose, strive to improve it from there.

My playing approaches are random vs random based on mathematical equations on progression. I set up my winning target and stop loss per session. Am I winning all the time, hell no. I win consistently and more than I lose, yes!

Please stay well and safe. I wish you, my fellow players, all the best..

Alrelax: please be kind to close my user account. You are welcome to communicate with me by other means because you my contact information.

Best regards,
Ted


Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on May 08, 2020, 08:30:00 AM
So very very very true to the millionth power, past the School of Hard Knocks over the Wild Blue Yonder and past all the other agonizing metaphors, that exist in the world of Baccarat I quote the following:

"Know when to walk out and when to walk in.

No amount of computer testing and or practice based on the theoretical approaches will be accomplished without hands on at the table playing with your hard earned money. I don't want any new potential or prospect players to think that it is a piece of cake to make a living playing baccarat or to win the money consistently. There is no holy grail period.

Please read, learn and practice with  real money at the table. Win or lose, strive to improve it from there."
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 11, 2020, 11:30:25 PM
Thanks for your contributes, but I'm afraid people want to know precisely the situations when to ride in and when to jump out of the shoe they're playing at.
Baccarat could be a form of both art and science, I still prefer the latter form as most players do not have the proper experience to learn the "when" and the "how" as Al or others can do.

If B2/B1-B3 plan could get us possible valuable hints to consider bac outcomes, in order to spot some long term features let's take the asym counterpart, that is the P2/P1-P3 opposite situation.

Again let's extract 10 shoes randomly from a live shoes data.

1) 2-1-1-2-2-1

2) 1-1-1

3) 2-1-1-1

4) 1

5) 1-2

6) 1-1-1

7) 1-1-3*

8) 1-1-1

9) 1-1-1

10) 1-1-2-3-2-1

Obviously we could infer that P consecutive doubles must show up by higher percentages than B doubles. After all B2<B3 and P2>P3 itlr.
True, but at the same time P1>P2, so now we get two exact opposite forces acting after each P double apparition. Knowing of course that P2>P3 so lowering the probability of success of second bets made on such P plan.

It's the same conclusion made on B doubles: from one part something is "generally" more likely (B3>B2) and something will be "actually" more likely (B1>B2+), now considering Player side respectively reversed by P1>P2 (general) and P3>P2 (actual) values.

It's not a coincidence that we need a couple of "homogeneous" outcomes happening at the same side to be considered as triggers.

Itlr B-B is an asymmetrical situation as well as is a P-P pattern.
But a perfect symmetrical card distribution cannot happen by any means, especially whether bac rules dictate otherwise. Even though this kind of asymmetricity seem to produce "symmetrical" results, we should know that it's impossible to get perfect sym outcomes for long, for the simple reason that at baccarat nothing is symmetrical or at least that a mistakenly sym perceived world cannot last for long.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 12, 2020, 12:01:17 AM
More P2/P1-P3 results randomly taken:

1-1-1

3-1-1-2-1-*

1-2-1-1-1

1-2-1-1

1-1

1-1

1-2-1

1-1-1-1

1-1-1

1

3

1-1-1

2-1-3

2-1-2-1

1-1-1-*

1-1-2-2

1-1-1-3

1-1-1-2-1-2

2-2

1-1-1

3-2-2

1

1-1-2-1

1-1-1-2

1-1-1

1-2-2-1

1-1

2-1-1-1

1-2-1-1

1-1-1

1-2

2-1

1-1-1

2-4

1-1-1-1

2-1-1-1

1-1-1

2-1-1-1

1-2-1

1-1-1-1

1-1-1-1

Now only a real id.iot could lose at those different B/P situations that MUST happen along each shoe.
Especially at 8-deck shoes.

as.




Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 13, 2020, 09:53:49 PM
Is B plan better than P or vice versa?
What about a plan considering both strategies simultaneously as a whole?
What about other strategies linked to those different one-side situations?

Let's start with the both sides plan, that is always wagering toward getting a B1/B3 or P1/P3 after a B2 or P2 trigger up to some levels.

Obviously we'll get many losses when many BB or PP doubles are coming consecutively, a kind of costant symmetrical situation but acting asymmetrically after one single hand is dealt, for each single hand considered itlr has a Bp=0.5068 and Pp=0.4932.
We shouldn't give a fk whether a given BBPPBBPPBBPP pattern (or when many other B/P doubles patterns provide more consecutive doubles) will be only formed by symmetrical situations, itlr and on average per every 12 resolved hands one asymmetrical hand favoring B side must happen (for simplicity here I omit the asym hand apparition producing a tie). And we know that many B favored hands can easily make the Player side winning.

Moreover unless a third card is exactly a zero value card, asym hands involve various degrees of B advantage, sometimes even unfavorite math situations as when Banker gets an initial 4 point and the third card is an Ace (slight negative EV as B should draw and not standing).

Baccarat is a game governed by asymmetrical states for rules and card distribution and when certain asymmetrical situations tend to produce symmetrical second-level (or higher) states we might endure some harsh times.

If by various causes, the asymmetricity will be so balanced along the vast or even the entire portion of the shoe, we're not going anywhere, thus imo not every shoe is playable.

A strong predominance of one side could be a kind of an extreme asymmetrical state being so simple to be detected. Unfortunately vast majority of shoes dealt do not belong to such category and moderate/light predominances are assessed after such state happened.
In addition, a simple B or P predominance is just a back to back unidirectional issue, mostly taken without considering the actual conditions that favored one side for long.

Thus we shouldn't bet on how long the asymmetricity works but about when it's more likely to produce given results on the side chosen.

as.   
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 13, 2020, 10:54:34 PM
Let's see what happens on those 20 live shoes taken randomly:

B plan: 1-1  P plan: 2-1-2

B plan: 2-1  P plan: 1-1-1

B plan: 1-1-2  P plan: 2-1

B plan: 1-1-1  P plan: 1-1-1-2-2

B plan: 1-1-1-1-1  P plan 2-1

B plan: 1-1-1  P plan 2

B plan: 1-1-2  P plan: 1

B plan: 1-1-2-1-1  P plan: 2-1

B plan: 1-2  P plan: 2-2-1-1

B plan: 1-2  P plan: 1-1-1

B plan: 2-2-2  P plan: no triggers

B plan: 1-1  P plan: 1-2-2

B plan: 2-2  P plan: 1-1-1-1

B plan: 3-1  P plan: 1-1-1

B plan: 1-2-1  P plan: 2-1-2-1

B plan: 1-1-1-3  P plan: 2-2-2

B plan: 1-1  P plan: 1-2

B plan: 1-1-1  P plan: 1-1-2

B plan: 3-1-1  P plan: 1-1

B plan: 1-1-1-1-2  P plan: 1-2-2-1-1

Fortunate shoes?
Probably not, as  1=76; 2=34 and 3=3

Since any 2 or 3 (or higher) occurence causes a -3 unit deficit providing a 1-2 mini progression made toward the 1 appearance and 1 just means +1, we'll get (before tax) 76 unit wins and 103 unit losses for a net loss of -27 units.
More interesting is that in this sample betting not to get 3 after 2 means 34 units of profits vs a 9 (3x3) unit loss. That is (before tax) a 25 units profit.

Does this ridiculously small sample suggesting that betting 2 after 2 vs 3+ will provide an advantage whereas the 1 vs 2+ proposition is a long term losing bet?
No way, naturally.
Those short term frequencies just suggest that the asymmetricity overall acted lightly at 1-level degree and very well at 2-level degree.
Indeed we could face shoes getting very different values of asymmetricity, anyway we are pretty sure that smaller classes will overwhelm superior values, all depending upon how good or bad are shuffled the cards.   

Of course and regardless of the asymmetricity value acting on the actual shoe, by both place selection and probability after events tools use, many random walks can be built getting ridiculously (now on the positive side) low dispersion values.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 14, 2020, 12:59:14 AM
More shoes:

B: 1  P: 1-1-1-1

B: 1-1-2-3  P: 1-1-1-1

B: 1-4-1  P: 1-3

B: 1-1-1-1  P: 3-1-1

B: 1-1-3-1-2  P: 1-1-1

B: 1-1-1-1  P: 1-1-1

B: 1-1-2-2-2*  P: 1-2*

B: 1-1-1-1-2  P: 1-1-3-1-1

B: no triggers  P: 1-2*

B: 1-1  P: 3*

B: 1-1  P: 1-3-1-1

B: 1  P: 1-3

B: 2-1-2  P: 1-4-1-1

B: 1-2*  P: 1-2*

B: 1-1  P: 1-4-1

B: 2-1-1-1  P: 1-1-1

B: 1-1-1  P: 1-1-1-1-1

B: 1-1-1  P: no triggers

B: 1-2-1  P: 1-1

B: 1-1-1-1-1  P: 1-1-1-2

Total 1=91  2=15 3+=11

Now betting 1 vs 2+= +13 before tax; 2 vs 3+= -18

Now asymmetricity considered the way discussed so far went right on the first level.

as.




Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 17, 2020, 10:31:38 PM
In reality the above P plan doesn't get the same variance features happening on the same B plan.
Even if shoes presented above were randomly taken, P side formed too many 1 or 2 situations than expected as itlr a lot of 3, 4 or higher numbers will be produced, especially whether consecutively considered. That's why my ub #2 didn't consider P side.

Let's try to give a formal answer to this.

If in order to set up our future betting plan we take BB and PP as symmetrical triggers we are making a mistake at the start.

Itlr every BB pattern is already a natural asymmetrical situation as math tend to shift the probability to B side after any given value that now we set after a single fresh B apparition.
On the other hand, itlr PP is already an artificial asymmetrical pattern as in some sense was slightly fighting against the math.
Therefore BB and PP patterns cannot be considered triggers springing up from the same probability. Actually most of the times are, but not itlr.

No matter what happens in between (just to simplify the things here), any new fresh B situation must fight with a new probability after any previous BB pattern had formed.
If we decide to always wager toward a B streak after any BB pattern previous production, we are simply implying that the asym value must act again just on this limited section of the shoe or, that whether the asym didn't act on the previous BB pattern, now it's more likely to work.
In addition, itlr the BB trigger involves a certain degree of "exhaustion" of asym force as the next hand is P.
That's why we could infer that itlr any fresh B appearance next to another exact BB pattern will be somewhat restricted to produce another B streak, thus orienting us to bet one time P side.
Whether this bet went wrong, we are challenging the actual card distribution to give another precise BB pattern, that is missing our plan two times (or more) in a row.

The PP counterpart is easier to be considered as an actual "artificial" asym strenght already worked. Thus after PP itlr the more likely outcome will be a P single and not a P 3+ streak whether the first bet failed (meaning a PP occurence). Thus lowering a lot the winning probability of our second attempt.

Overall and itlr the B2/B1 strenght will be more powerful than the P2/P3 strenght of course considering that both bets are mathematically facing the same 1:1 payment.

Player side must be attacked by other weapons.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 19, 2020, 11:20:11 PM
Player side is more difficult to be assessed despite of its slight lesser probability to appear.
When betting P side we are simply wagering that key cards must be shifted toward this side at various degrees and in the meantime that no asymmetrical B favoring situation will arise.

Since we know that almost every shoe isn't immune to such asym probability, we could infer that  is virtually impossible to wager Player getting a steady 0.5 winning probability fairly payed (1:1).

In a sense when betting Player we are hoping about two orders of things:

a- no asym hand will take place at the time of our betting

b- key cards are shifted toward Player side

Oppositely thinking, we could reckon that B side is really advantaged only when an asym hand will come out within a restricted range of hands as the key cards shift is anyway burdened by a 5% vigorish.

Now let's think about the probability where our plan will get all positive Player betting situations upon a given shoe. Say this is our gold standard.

1- wagering toward getting all P singles.

2- wagering toward getting all P doubles

3- wagering toward getting all P 3+ streaks

4- any mix of the above situations

No need to test many shoes, almost no one single situation belonging to #1, #2 and #3 category will provide all winnings.
Then in order to increase such probability even at the risk of losing more money, we try to couple two different scenarios.

1-2: well, this situation may happen, mostly when many P doubles are formed or when P singles are interpolated by long B streaks.

1-3: situation less likely than the previous one, yet it could happen.

2-3: no way an 8-deck shoe is likely to show all P streaks, of course here the winning/losing probability remains confined at 0.5 at best.

If we aim to get all wins on our bets obviously we must rely upon the probability that things are going right just at the start.
Therefore plans 1-2 and 1-3 are more likely to provide this kind of jackpot, either as they involve a 0.75% or so probability to win and as 2-3 plan isn't going to form winnings at the whole played shoe.

Naturally such jackpot is just an ideal situation thus forcing us to build our betting plan upon lower degree probabilities. Yet some quality factors endorse the probability to get or not the expected long winning streak we should aim for.

Moreover those 1-2 and 1-3 plans are just considered by a mere B/P pattern random walk point of view.
That is not properly considering the actual conditions where those results were formed.

A thing discussed next

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 24, 2020, 10:18:43 PM
The decisive tool to test any B/P system is by considering the limiting values of relative frequency of EVERY possible shoe's pattern, thus covering how it fares through every possible card distribution.

The ploy to restrict the outcomes into three classes will help us a lot for two reasons.

First, baccarat features the very slight propensity to produce the opposite result already happened;

Secondly,  after the 3 level is reached we may consider all 3+ superior classes the same as 3s.

Since it may appear so easy to simply bet toward shorter patterns as singles and doubles, we should focus our interest about those 3s distribution.

3s and 3+s are by definition asymmetrical situations even if a given 3+ is composed by a BBBBBB sequence or PPPP pattern as they get or not a given probability of taking advantage (B side) or shifting (P side) the asym force determined by the rules.

Of course pure 3s (streaks of just three B/P hands) are more likely to be the product of sym situations as the overall asym probability is confined to 8.6% over the total hands dealt. The longer any streak is forming higher will be the probability to cross an asym situation as virtually (and practically) no shoe is producing all symmetrical events.
And we know that not all asym hands will form a B decision, of course.

It could easily happen that asym hands may come out within shorter BP patterns, for example after a single B result or after a single P hand or after a couple of the same situations.
Thus, for example, betting itlr toward P singles and P doubles just mean to hope that the asym force will happen right on those spots as the mere symmetrical force cannot be of any help other than for short term variance issues.

Itlr, our profit can only and only come out just when the sum of our Player bets were placed on sym hands payed 1:1 and when our Banker bets were getting a quite higher than 8.6/91.4 ratio.
Naturally those P bets must involve more than a strenght of sym value, mostly in form of more likely card distribution, whereas B bets generally rely upon a selected endorsed math probability.


Back to the "everything is possible" shoe production.
We could think the bac shoe situation as a continuous 1-2-3 succession, knowing that homogeneous 1 or 2 or 3 situations aren't going to happen. But two situations out of three are more likely to happen along the entire lenght of the shoe and we know we had to discard 2-3 situations unless happening at B side (with the additional help of B2/B1 apparition).
We are so sure about that that a multilayered progression made on B doubles consecutiveness will cross very soon a certain "jackpot" situation, the same but at a lower degree when considering two or more consecutive wins when applied to the 1/2 and 1/3 method.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 24, 2020, 10:51:52 PM
Examples taken from Wynn and Gold Coast live shoes data.

1-2 and 1-3 plans joined with B2/B1-B3 attacks made on the entire shoe regardless of asym/sym quality assessment.

+ + - - - + + + + + + + - + + + - + + - + + - - + + + + + + + -

B2/B1-B3:  - - - + - -

+ + + + + + + - + - + + + - -  + + -

B2/B1-B3: + - + +

+ + + - + - + - + + + + + - + - + + + + - + + - + + - + -

B2/B1-B3: + - + + + +

- + + - + - - - + + + + + + + + + - + + - + + + + + -

B2/B1-B3: - + - + + +

- + + + + + + + + + + - - + - + + + + + + - - + + + - + - *

B2/B1-B3: - - + + +

+ + - + + + - + - + + + + + + + - + + + + + - + + + + + -

B2/B1-B3: + + +

+ + + - + + + + - + + + + + + + + + - - + - - + + + + + + + +

B2/B1-B3: + + - - - + + - +

+ + + + + + + - + + - + + + + + + + + + + + + + + - + + - + + + + + - + + -

B2/B1-B3: - + - + +

Not surprisingly in the first shoe presented most asym hands went "wrong" for B side despite of the math advantage.

as.



Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 26, 2020, 10:09:42 PM
Let's consider our old three different states where every pattern in the universe will belong to.

Generally speaking, the less will be the number of states occurring at a given shoe, better will be the probability to get long winning streaks as a single state or, more likely, a couple of states may be present for long without the "intrusive" effect of the unwelcome third one.

On the other end, we've seen that another strategy relies just upon the opposite thought, that is that certain spots must change their shape in a way or another.

Let's start to examine the theorically "perfect" situations capable to get the highest number of states change happening along any shoe.

When three different states are involved, only six possibilities getting ALL change states come around :

An "endless" succession of 1-2-3-1-2-3-1-2-3.... or 1-3-2-1-3-2-1-3-2... or 2-1-3-2-1-3-2-1-3... or
2-3-1-2-3-1-2-3-1... or 3-1-2-3-1-2-3-1-2... or 3-2-1-3-2-1-3-2-1....

Everything in between gets at least one "winning" situation, that is the third state must be silent for more than the 3-step steady pace featured on the above six patterns.

Notice that all six patterns came out by a 1/3 singles/streaks ratio instead of the more natural 1/1 ratio, meaning that those patterns are "biased" at the start.
Yet we are not interested about the numbers but about the pace.

In a sense we're trying to put in relationship those 6 different "biased" (hence asymmetrical) patterns with the actual natural asymmetrical production, not assigning a precise value to any side or value (as in no way itlr B1=P1, B2=P2 and B3=P3, not mentioning that in the overwhelming majority of times the "3" category inglobes very different patterns).

Even though many "natural" big road or derived roads registrations may offer some profitable opportunities, we need to set up more intricated random walks applied to the actual results' production.

as.   
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 26, 2020, 11:23:30 PM
A couple of examples taken randomly.

Original shoe results: 2-1-2-1-2-2-1-1-2-1-3-2-1-3-3-1-3-1-3-1-1-1-1-1-1-2-2-3-1-2-2-2-1-1-1


123) +,+,+,-,-,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,-,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,-,+

132) +,+,+,-,-,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,-,-,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,-,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,-,+

213) -,-,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,-,+,+,+,-

231) -,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,-,-,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+

312) +,-,-,+,+,-,+,-,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,-,-,-,-,+,+,+,+,-

321) +,+,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,+,-,+,+,-,+,-,+,-,+,+,+,-,-,+,+

Second shoe: 1-1-1-3-1-2-3-3-2-1-1-2-1-3-2-3-3-1-2-1-1-3-1-3-1-3-1-1-2-3-3-1-1-1-3-1-2-1

123) -,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,+,+,-,-,-,+,+,+,-,+,+,+,+

132) -,+,+,+,+,-,+,-,-,+,+,-,-,-,-,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,+,-,+,++,+,+,-,-,+,+,+

213) +,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,+,+,-,-,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,-,+,+,+,+,-,-

231) +,+,-,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,-,-,+,-,+,-,-,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,+,+,+,+,+,-

312) +,-,+,-,-,-,-,+,-,+,-,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,-,+,-,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,+,+,+,+,+,-

321) +,+,-,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,-,+,+,-,-,+,+,+,+,-,+,-,+,-,+,-,+,+,-,+,+

Even though original shoes were presented by the stupi.dest way of registration (big road) and that many - signs are getting us a -3 unit loss and nearly half of + signs are getting us an inferior +1 payment, some +/- situations are more "due" than others.

Notice that unb plan #1 worked wonderfully on first shoe but quite tremendously bad on the second one.
First shoe presented 21 states change and second shoe 27 states change.

1-step level unb plan #2 results got respectively a LWWW and WW events.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 27, 2020, 12:06:25 AM
Another live shoe taken from the now defunct Lucky Dragon casino:

1-2-1-3-2-1-2-1-2-1-3-2-2-2-2-2-1-1-3-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-2-3-2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-2-2-3-1-1-2-3

123) -,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,-,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,-,-,-,+,+,+

132) -,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,-,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,-,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,+

213) +,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,-,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,-,+,-,+,-,+,+

231) +,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,-,-,+,+,+,+,+,+

312) +,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,-,+,-,-,+,+,-,+,+,-,-,-,+,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,+,+,-,-,-

321) +,-,-,-,-,-,+,+,+,+,+,+,+,-,+,+,+,-,-,+,-,+,+,-,+,+,+,-,-,-,+,+,-,+,+,-,+,-,+,+,+,+,-
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 27, 2020, 01:14:09 AM
In the last shoe notice how would fare a cumulative strategy applied simultaneously to every 6 possible "highest state" number pattern:

1. - -  + + + +

2. - + + + + -

3. + + + - + -

4. + + + + + -

5. - + + + + -

6. + + + - + -

7. + + - + + +

8. + + - + - +

9. + - + + - +

10. + - + + + +

11. + - + + + +

12. + - + + - +

13. + + - - + +

14. - + + + + -

15. + - + + - +

16. + + - - + +

17. + + - + - +

18. + + + - + -

19. + + + + - -

20. + + - + - +

21. + + + - +

22. - - + + + +

23. + - - + - +

24. + + + + - -

25. - - + + + -

26. + + + + - -

27. + - + + - -

28. + + + + - -

29. - + + + + -

30. + + + - + -

31. - - + + + +

32. + + - + + +

33. + + + - - -

34. - - + + + +

35. + + - + + +

36. + + + - - -

37. + + - - + +

38. - + - + + -

39. - + + + + +

40. - - - + + +
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: RickK on June 01, 2020, 09:08:44 PM
as...really lost here on what you are recording when you are charting shoes...any chance you could drop back a few steps and maybe take the first shoe you charted and explain a little more about what the numbers represent, i.e. numbers of a particular event, where they developed in the shoe, or anything that might explain it a little more ?...sorry if it's obvious..just not getting it here...Rick
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: RickK on June 02, 2020, 12:02:02 PM
At the top of page 10, you show P2/P1-P3 results. Does each number represent a P2-P1 (2 events) and/or  a P2-P3 ?
A 1 would be the 2 event combination occurred a single time ? And a 2 would be it occurred two times in a row ?
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 02, 2020, 08:02:19 PM
Hi Rickk.

Numbers register how many P2 doubles come out after an initial P2 "trigger": if P2 is limited by an immediate P1 or P3 the number registered will be 1.
If a couple of P2 patterns come around consecutively, we'll write 2. If three P2 patterns show up we'll write 3 and so on.

Example.

BPPBBBPBPPBBPPBBBBBPBPBBPPBPPBBPPBPPBPPPBPPBBBPPPPB according to the P2/P1-P3 r.w is:

1-2-4-2

In the same sequence the B2/B1-B3 r.w. is read as:

1-1-1


as.








 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: RickK on June 02, 2020, 08:36:11 PM
Thank you...
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 02, 2020, 08:48:57 PM
You are welcome! :-)

Obviously the level of asymmetricity (generally intended) of each shoe dealt is strictly related to the actual card distribution. Same shoes dealt and shuffled poorly tend to mantain the same level of asymmetricity but very often detected by different patterns' shapes. That's why we need several r.w.'s operating for us.

Since 1-2, 1-3 and B2/B1-B3 and P2/P1-P3 cover all the most frequent possibilities at various degrees, we might get a more precise idea about how "asymmetrically" cards are distributed along the actual shoe. Or, better sayed, which spots are more likely to be asymmetrically distributed.

Any 2-hand attack features a theorical winning probability of 0.75 on symmetrical hands and various different probabilities when one of two asymmetrical hands come along.
For example, if our plan dictates to wager P side two times and two asym hands come out, the P winning probability is restricted to about 0.6645.
In the same example, just one asym hand coming out on our two P betting attempts shifts the P winning probability to about 0.71.

Naturally asym hands don't come out around the corner, therefore many "more likely Banker outcomes" should be assessed by the actual quality/quantity pattern distribution. We do not want to bet a side being unnecessarily payed 0.95:1, especially when the actual distribution seems to privilege the symmetrical hands formation.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 03, 2020, 02:15:25 AM
Tomorrow I'll discuss nonsense topics as "quit when you are ahead", "secure a profit", and the more intriguing "stop win or stop loss", all "human factors" that cannot alter in our favor the natural flow of the game.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: Albalaha on June 03, 2020, 07:12:10 AM
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on June 03, 2020, 02:15:25 AM
Tomorrow I'll discuss nonsense topics as "quit when you are ahead", "secure a profit", and the more intriguing "stop win or stop loss", all "human factors" that cannot alter in our favor the natural flow of the game.

as.
              Only a strategy meant for long run works that can cater to the worst and the best alike. "Quit when ahead" or "stop loss or stop win" could only be a strategy for ending a day's game and nothing else. It does not make you a winner, in any manner. Do remember, you can not predict what will happen in your next session.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 03, 2020, 10:38:43 PM
Exactly Alba! :thumbsup:

"Secure a profit"

If we think to get an edge at a given game and conditions are favourable, we should stay and play regardless of the actual economical situation.
As Albalaha sayed, it's only the long run which counts and itlr everything will come out, thus to secure a profit means "I know I'll surely lose, better to get the illusion to be ahead of something now".
Instead a proper formulation should be: favourable conditions are met, the more I play the more I'll win. Period.

"Quit when you are ahead"

Same bigornsh.it as above.
Our play cannot be splitted into sessions, it's just an infinite series of bets where the cumulative number of times we are ahead (by a W/L ratio) is equal to the cumulative number of times we are behind, all aggravated by the fact that bets are unfair payed in a way or another.
In some sense and oppositely thinking, the specular statement should be "do not quit when behind", a statement particularly liked by casinos.

"Stop win" and "Stop loss"

It depends about what we are considering.
Each class of Ws and Ls follow a general probability and an actual probability. For example I've presented random walks having a general probability to produce all wins for the entire lenght of the shoe, hence lowering the value of a stop win strategy.
On the other hand, some shoes will form many back to back losses that make a future winning streak less probable (mainly for a lack of space).

The actual probability, imo, should be considered either by a simple pattern point of view and, more importantly, by certain quality factors prompting the hands formation.

In no way we could think to hope for a preordered amount of W units either per each shoe or per a series of shoes as we do not know how things will develop and the same is true about Ls situations.

Knowing that the actual shoe has a probability different from zero to produce all winnings represents a good start.
Conversely, cards distributions forming unlikely "losing" situations at the start (albeit due for obvious reasons regarding variance) are not going to produce specular winning counterparts.
It's like stating that key cards clumped toward one side at the beginning are symmetrically clumped toward the opposite side thereafter.

Of course people making a living at numbers like to wager toward the unlikelihood that something won't happen, thus betting toward slight or intermediate more likely situations.
And more often than not the initial-mid sections of the actual shoe are offering us good hints.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 07, 2020, 09:44:50 PM
To get the idea that at baccarat things are constantly moving around clumps of key cards each time removed from the deck and then affecting or not the next results, let's shuffle an 8-deck shoe then taking out randomly, say 40 consecutive cards, and see what are the real outcomes coming out infinitely from this 40 cards sample.

Since our sample is randomly/randomly taken and on average we'll get about 7 hands (in form of B, P and T hands) we shouldn't expect to get other than a random pattern (ties ignored for simplicity) belonging to one of the possible 128 distributions. Of course patterns containing more B decisions will overcome the same P counterpart, as sooner or later this finite card distribution will produce some asym hands at various degrees. And we all know the overall general probability to get an asym hand is 8.6%. 

Since it's impossible to know which side will be more favored to win unless cards will form one or more asymmetrical hands, we could think to operate about the unlikelihood that long symmetrical patterns will happen along the way by the simplest form of symmetrical card distribution tools acting (or not) at various degrees.

Considering my above example, any 8-deck shoe is formed by at least nine 40-cards situations, each belonging to a given real asym/sym ratio and/or real sym/sym ratio, all producing each 7 different patterns.
In some sense there's no one single possibility in the world that homogeneous quality outcomes are going to produce the same quality back to back ratios occurred within consecutive portions of the deck.

More on that later.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 09, 2020, 10:10:37 PM
"Points" of interest

What is the long term distribution of Banker and Player final points?

Contrary to what many could think, only two categories of points will get the same probability to appear on both sides.
And of course those two are natural 8s and natural 9s. Every other point category will feature a different probability whether we are considering Banker or Player.
Another form to think about asymmetricity.

Hence the only situations where final points get a real symmetrical probability occur with naturals. Not even 6s and 7s will get a symmetrical probability (for obvious reasons).

That's why the Dragon bonus side bet involves a quite different house edge depending upon the side we choose to bet (by far the house edge is a lot lower on P side bets).

The slightest difference between same point B and P probabilities comes with "3" and "7" points. Then about non natural 8s and 9s, 0, 1 and 2 points.
Then "6" points.
Greatest gap in probability exists with 4s and 5s. (Obviously)

On average a deck will form around 19% of naturals on either side, thus around 4/5 of the total hands dealt are following a more or less pronounced asymmetricity.
Naturally we are not talking about more likely B or P outcomes, just about long term final points probability.

Of course the higher the point the better is the probability to win, yet itlr those point gaps are constantly moving around fixed probabilities, each point fighting with a general and an actual shoe probability.

Taken from another point of view, we should see that if 4s and 5s are the more gapped final points (5.4%) then a kind of Banker advantage is more concentrated right on those exact B final points. And we know this being absolutely correct as most asym B edge comes from standing 4s and 5s.

Well, standing. And not all 4s and 5s stand after Player draws.
Not mentioning that some 4s must stand when a third card ace id dealt to the Player, a slight negative edge situation.
And 4s and 5s cannot come infinitely.

The third more pronounced gap situation between same points is about point 6, now favoring Player side and accounting to around 1.1%.
That is that we'll get more P 6 final points than B 6 final points and of course a 6 point is long term favorite to win.

Cumulatively and regarding final points distribution, B 4s, B 5s and P 6s get a nearly 6.6% general asymmetrical probability to appear that we should compare to the actual shoe situations.


as.   
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 12, 2020, 11:46:46 PM
If baccarat is a constant asymmetrical game, first we should focus our attention about real symmetrical probabilities.
More specifically about the lenght of those sym probabilities.

A perfect world dictates that whether a baccarat shoe won't produce asym B favored hands, a constant Player wagering will get at least a zero negative edge against the house.
Oppositely, ONLY a higher than 8.6:91.4 asym/sym hands ratio will lower, erase or invert the house edge on B wagers.

On average, an asym hand will come out about one time over 11.62 hands. To simplify say we'll get one asym hand out of 12 hands and some of them are producing a tie hand.
We also know that a 8.6% probability, differently to other gambling games, cannot be silent per every shoe dealt (that is within a 75-80 hands sample).
Therefore we might imply that no matter how whimsically is the actual card distribution, sooner or later probabilities will change from 0.5/0.5 to 0.5793/0.4203.

In a sense, now we are not interested about how things seem to develop but about will be the probability to cross either 0.5/0.5 or 0.5793/0.4203 events.
That is how much and how many times those two different probabilities change in our actual shoe.

But there's a third important factor to be examined.
That is how asym hands went as more than four out of ten times a shifted math probability favoring B side will be "disregarded".

Now we could consider any shoe as a finite world made by many subsequences of sym/asym hands; on their part asym hands will form further sequences of W/L patterns.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: RickK on June 14, 2020, 02:17:42 PM
But there's a third important factor to be examined.
That is how asym hands went as more than four out of ten times a shifted math probability favoring B side will be "disregarded".


Any chance you could explain that a little further? Are you saying to be aware that the favored B side after an asym hand may may not be happening and to make an adjustment?
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 14, 2020, 11:25:04 PM
Neglecting ties for simplicity, any possible hand will get those true percentages for the player:

Betting B at any asym hand: +0.95 x 57.93% - 1 x 42.07 = + 12.96%

Betting P at any asym hand 1 x 42.07 - 1 x 57.93% = - 15.86%


Betting B at any sym hand: +0.95 x 50% - 1 x 50% = - 2.5%

Betting P at any sym hand +1 x 50% - 1 x 50% = 0%

Therefore itlr we can only hope to be ahead by catching a higher percentage of asym hands than expected when betting Banker and a higher than expected amount of sym hands when betting Player. The remaining events are just belonging to strong or very strong negative propositions.

Obviously there's no one method in the world that could hope to be long term winner whenever the cumulative sums of those four situations will produce the expected negative amount.

It's just a work about detecting when an asym hand will show up more likely within a restricted range of hands, at the same time trying to get rid of those sym hands going to B side as itlr the number of sym B hands will be equal to the number of P sym hands but very differently payed.

For example, say we bet Banker and a simple BBBB pattern shows up with no asym hands coming out.
Itlr we are losing more money than if we were wagering Player side thus losing all four bets.
An apparent "good" situation just becomes a strong losing event.

Conversely a Banker steady wagering on the same BBBB pattern including just one asym hand will get us a long term profit.

Back to your question.

The asym Banker advantage is an average long term value made by all possible standing/drawing situations after a third card is dealt to the Player and Banker can decide what to do in relation of its point (3,4,5 and 6 initial points).
We know that most edge comes from standing 5s, then standing 4s, then standing 3s.
6s drawing after a 6 or 7 is dealt to the Player just lower the disadvantage, it's not a true advantage.
I mean that the asym power on asym hands could be more or less concentrated, always depending upon how is the card distribution on the actual shoe.
Thinking this way we may assign a specific role to any asym hand occurred, not only in the form of initial point but in terms of actual result.

Now let's compare the general probability with the actual probability: 8.6% asym occurence getting a 15.86% B advantage with what really happen at the shoe we're playing at.

Former value is more stable than second one as it's more likely to get P drawing situations as opposed to 3,4,5,6 B points. Actually almost no one single shoe will form no asym hands.
Yet the average 15.86% B edge on those asym hands is more whimsically placed, being the reflex of which B point is dealt when P draws. Not mentioning that the main destiny of asym hands is focused about just one card, that is the third card.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on June 14, 2020, 11:44:05 PM
And look at that board, that I put a picture up of the players.  I believe this is what Asym is  talking about and I've seen more of this than a banker's equivalent. Yes I see runs and streaks and clumps for Banker over the Decades of playing, but as an overall majority there's more of something like this and more clumps for players and easier to follow for player because of that third card than anything else IMO.

https://betselection.cc/wagering-intricacies/215am-on-the-way-to-the-casino/

And I've said it many times, I love the players in the first section or first two sections of the shoe and this is very easy to clean house if you're not teaming up or listening to other people on their Banker drive and how they only wager for banker. Or how they only want a banker streak and few believe players coming out. Enough said, take a look at this picture, I believe this supports what Asym says? 

https://betselection.cc/wagering-intricacies/great-bac-shoe-players-cleaned-out-the-dealers-rack!/
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 15, 2020, 12:15:16 AM
Actually in the vast majority of the times, strong Player shoes feature many asym hands that went "wrong" for B side.
It's like betting a less likely situation knowing that events favoring the opposite B side are not coming out as the shifting power was somewhat over.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 21, 2020, 11:51:23 PM
The absolute certainty to play baccarat with an edge is by knowing precisely on which side a key card will fall. We know that and we know that this thing isn't possible.

Next it comes the more intricate field of "statistical approximations", that is how things could more likely develop according to both general specific guidelines and actual observations.
It's true that without any math edge we are generally going to nowhere, but it is altogether true that when a given method itlr is getting lower sd values than expected we are at least taking a less worse approach.
More deeply we want to go in the process, higher will be the probability to win up to the point where the negative HE will be inverted to our favor.
Meaning that no "unfortunate" back to back sequences could destroy our plan if we have carefully assessed what I name the "asym factor" (ASF) working for each shoe dealt.
Higher is the ASF value, higher is our probability of success.

Bac outcomes are the direct product of:

- asym hands apparition favoring B side mathematically, getting a finite frequency over a single shoe;

- key cards finite distribution falling here and there;

- very slight propensity to get the opposite result just happened;

- actual result of asym hands;

- actual result of sym hands;

- third card impact on outcomes.

Say each one of those factors are more or less unbalanced in the shoe we're playing at.
Of course most strenght should be assigned to the asym hand apparition as any B4 or B5 (and at a lesser degree any B3) facing a P drawing situation is hugely favorite to win.

Next comes the key cards falling, nobody wants to face a first card 8 or 9 when wagering Banker and vice versa.

Then the old very slight propensity to get streaks ending up.
It's a sure fkng statistical finding that at baccarat streaks are shorter than at any other same probability independent propositions results (try to compare REAL bac shoes with 50.68/49.32 mere probability decisions)

The actual result of asym hands is an issue understimated by many.
Once a math situation went wrong for the favorite side, betting Banker next means to hope that another asym hand will come out.
I'm not suggesting that when an asym hand produced a Player result, the best bet is wagering Player. Just that the possible asym math force was quite consumed.

The actual result of sym hands is probably one of the most important factors to be examined.
Itlr and no matter what is the actual result, we are way less disadvantaged whether each same class of selective bets are made upon hands getting sym decisions when betting P than B. Obviously.

Finally there's third card nature, more or less unbalanced to produce favourable or not situations to Player side.
Surely 4s are the best cards to be dealt to a drawing P side, then 5s and so on.
Notice that there's a subtle line between a third card 8 or 9 being more detrimental than not to P side, but at the same time hugely beneficial when Banker shows a natural point negating P to draw and getting those key cards as first card.

To simplify a lot, best random walk to follow is that one that had shown a huge degree of asymmetricity whatever intended, either from a mere quantity point of view and, more importantly, from a quality point of view.

Our goal should be oriented to get ALL winning situations at the shoe we're playing at and naturally we can't win every hand when wagering each hand dealt or most hands dealt.

Therefore we must find the best random walks getting such feature in the shoe we're playing at and, of course, to get all winnings we must start with a win.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 22, 2020, 10:14:22 PM
Look at this shoe (ties ignored).

BPBPBPBPBPBPBPBPBPBPBPBPBPBPBPBPBPBPBPBP
     BPBP           BP            PBPBPB  B     P   P      B  BP
                            P                BP                 P           B    P
                            P                                      P           B
                            P                                      P           B
                            P                                                    B   
                            P
                            P
                            P 

In this shoe there were 12 asym hands (well above average) whom one produced a tie.
Quite curiously Banker got more naturals than Player.

This shoe produced ALL winning hands in the five hands played (for that matter we didn't bet a single hand on the Player nine-hand streak and on the Banker six-hand streak).

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: RickK on June 23, 2020, 10:56:35 AM
as...Need some help understanding your scorecard....Assuming the above is a regular horizontal scorecard and the first row is the heading (BPBPBP....), why are there some blank columns in between some of the events ? and.. your explanation of the results is understood in your description in writing, but on the card there is no indication showing your results...i.e. which hands were asym, which were bet/won, which were naturals, etc...appears that the misalignment is a typing issue, but what should we be looking for in this scorecard ? Rick
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on June 23, 2020, 12:39:47 PM
Asym, I fixed the card, it should be correct now, let me know if it is not.

As far as the blank spaces between the events, a lot of people score the shoe on a horizontal going to the right. If it makes banker, it's one spot and if it cuts to the player the next spot would be to the right, it would be player.  If it makes player three more times, players would be under that second player going down 3 spots, so it will be a total of four players. If it doesn't make a repeat it would be blank and it would move to the next spot to the right.

Same way the Big Road does on the scoreboard, the same way. A lot of people do not do or vertical, they do the actual Big Road on the scorecard and make their own notes on it. So the bottom line is the blank spaces just means that it did not make a repeat Banker or Player underneath the first Banker/Player.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: RickK on June 23, 2020, 12:59:13 PM
Alrelax...what you've described is pretty standard..maybe it's my screen, but what I was referring to are the blank "columns"...in the first 10 "event columns" there are 2 blank, 1 B, 1 P, 1 B, 1 P, then 4 blank..Big Road does not have blank or empty columns between events..just wondering if that is a typo or if it meant something..
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on June 23, 2020, 01:03:07 PM
Must be your screen, I don't see any empty columns, it's an exact copy of a Big Road.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: RickK on June 23, 2020, 02:37:34 PM
Ok...as mentioned in my first post on this issue, I was assuming that the first "row" on Asym's post was the "heading" of a scorecard (or Big Road) of a shoe...it apparently is the first actual "result" of an event..apologize for the confusion......
..
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: RickK on June 23, 2020, 03:01:51 PM
Now back to the more important issue, what are we looking for in terms of asym hands, naturals, hands bet/won, etc. ? ...the post is showing B/P hand results, but not indicating where or when any of these other occurrences took place...
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 28, 2020, 07:52:49 PM
My bad.
Thanks Al and sorry Rickk and everyone.
After posting the shoe everything appeared correct on my screen.

Let's try again with a simpler form:

B
P
BB
PP
BB
PP
B
P
B
P
B
P
BB
PPPPPPPPP
B
P
B
P
B
PP
BB
PP
BBB
PPP
BB
P
B
P
B
PP
B
P
B
PPPPP
B
P
BB
P
BBBBBB
PPP


as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 28, 2020, 10:13:35 PM
Mathematically our long term EV is in direct relationship between asym and sym betting ranges.

For example, say a portion of the shoe presents eight straight sym hands and the actual outcomes of those sym hands are producing an eight Banker streak.
If we were betting Banker each hand belonging to this streak we may think to be lucky or geniuses. Actually we are severely losing money.
On the other hand, the same sym 8-hand pattern could form a Player streak of the same lenght and now a steady Player betting cannot get us other than a zero negative edge at least.

Since the probability to get one of the possible 256 different BP patterns on those sym situations remains the same, it's quite obvious that there's no point to bet Banker at any of those eight sym hands.

Thus the Banker side should be wagered just about the probability to form or not an asym hand among a very restricted range of hands.
This one is the only wise math approach working itlr as the math advantage must overcome the negative HE.

We should remember again that most asym hands edge comes from 5s and 4s Banker initial points and, at a lesser degree. from 3s.

Think that many Banker 5s and 4s initial points will cross standing/natural Player situations, therefore transforming potential shifted events (that is asym hands) into mere symmetrical circumstances.

In some way we could infer that the probability to form a 4 or 5 Banker initial point is somewhat dependent about the previous situations and we should always be focused about the mere asym/sym probability.
Let's say that as long as no 4 or 5 (and, at a lesser degree a 3 point) Banker initial point will be formed, we are betting a close to zero negative edge game when wagering P side.

In any case, we want to add a further parameter, that is how asym hands went in our shoe.

Say we know for sure that the actual shoe is presenting such sequence (S= symmetrical hands and N= non symmetrical hands):

S-S-S-S-N-S-N-S-S-S-S-N-N-S-S-S-S-S-S-N-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-N-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-N-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-N-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S

The are no other perfect plays than wagering Banker at hands #5, #7, #12, #13, #20, #28, #42, #64.
For now we cannot care less about the real BP outcomes, after all the winning probability of such sequence is a long math proposition of 0.5 (S) and 0.5793 (N) events.
Quite likely not every N spot will form a Banker hand, not mentioning that at S spots everything will be possible.

Now let's compare the same deck N or S situations with the new distribution.
Of course the probability to get the exact N or S distribution will be zero and, by an obvious higher degree, the same results.

Nonetheless, the clustering N or S effect will seem to remain the same as cards tend not to be properly shuffled.

It's like playing a game where we might be very very slight favored or hugely favored at various degrees, totally getting rid of the potential situation to find ourselves facing the exact counterparts.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 28, 2020, 11:25:40 PM
Think about math percentages first.

If we would bet Banker side five hands long then getting at least one asym hand, we're getting a long term advantage.
If by taking advantage of other bac features we want to wager Player side, we want all sym hands to be formed, meaning we're not losijg a dime itlr.

Asym hands that went "wrong" for B side just endorse the probability to get sym hands on the very next outcome as the probability to get back to back asym hands is distant. We surely do not want to wager a side being payed 0.95:1 than 1:1.

By the same way of thinking, a B natural is going to produce a way lesser impact than the same P natural.

Next time we'll consider naturals.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: RickK on June 30, 2020, 11:55:19 AM
"If we would bet Banker side five hands long then getting at least one asym hand, we're getting a long term advantage.
If by taking advantage of other bac features we want to wager Player side, we want all sym hands to be formed, meaning we're not losijg a dime itlr."

as, could you provide an explanation to help understand what this means ?...thanks in advance
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 05, 2020, 09:50:19 PM
Hi Rickk!

We can't hope to be long term winners without getting a positive EV, no matter how is taken.

Globally we know that our EV is negative, being slight negative (0.18 is the difference) by constantly wagering Banker side.

Math speaking, there are only two situations to bet favourably itlr:

- catching more asym hands than expected while wagering B side;

- NOT catching asym hands while wagering P side.

Example.
An infinite run of six hands are dealt (consecutively or not, it doesn't matter) and we want to see what's our EV depending upon which side we would like to bet.
If all those six hands are symmetrical, we know that itlr we'll win half of them regardless of the side we choose to bet.
Thus the EV is:

Banker bets: (0.95 x 0.5) x 3 - (1 x 0.5) x 3 = 1.425 - 1.5 = -0.075

Player bets: (1 x 0.5) x 3 - (1 x 0.5) x 3 = 0

That means that betting a $100 unit we'll get on average a $296.25 return on our money when betting Banker and a $300 return while wagering Player side.
Same proportions could be extracted regarding eight hands or ten hands or about hands of any lenght.

When a single asym hand comes out, things abruptly shift toward Banker side, altering hugely the normal EV flow just for that very hand.

Now the asym hand EV on Banker bets is 0.95 x 0.5793 - 1 x 0.4207 = 0.1296

Do the math and you'll see that itlr an invincible betting plan could be oriented to spot the situations when an asym hand apparition is more likely within a more restricted than expected range or, at a way lesser degree, that a given shoe sequence is more likely to produce more natural sym events. In the former case we will of course privilege B side, in the latter the P choice.

Naturally the 0.5 (sym) and 0.5793 (B/P asym) probability values are just general values, yet the payment remains the same (B=0.95:1 and P=1:1), that is hugely shifted toward one side.

And we know that not all asym hands will get the 0.5793 probability, it's just a cumulative math situation.
Most asym hands power comes from Banker 5 points facing a P drawing hand, then Banker 4 points facing a P drawing hand and at a way lesser degree B 3 points facing a P drawing hand.
6 B points dealing a 6 or a 7 third card to P side are just lowering the negative egde.

Of course all standing-natural/standing-natural situations (belonging to the sym spots category) itlr will advantage Player side as first they are payed 1:1 instead of 0.95:1, then any Banker 6 point facing any standing Player situation must stand prompting a sure negative math proposition.

Tomorrow we'll see how to consider outcomes in terms of asym/sym actual distribution.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 06, 2020, 11:15:38 PM
At this point it should be clear that our long term results are in direct relationship between the different EVs working on those two very diverse situations.

Many craps players like to place odds at pass lines or don't pass lines after the point is established. Normally the HE is never zero, say very close to zero but never zero.
At baccarat we've seen that as long as no asym hands will be formed, wagering Player side is a way better option than betting Banker as the payment is 1:1 and not 0.95:1.
That means that on symmetrical hands virtually no card distributions could alter significantly the Banker negative EV.

Reasoning in this way we could build a result plan just on the very first four cards dealt.
As long as Player draws and Banker do not show a 5, 4 or a 3, we are really in good shape when betting Player.
Conversely, this is the exact situation we want to look for when wagering Banker.

Going to less likely situations, we see that any standing/natural situation can only advantage Player side itlr, even if in that shoe any Player 7 point will lose everytime to a Banker natural.

No asym hand = no Banker party!

What's the real probability to get the Player drawing/ Banker 5,4 or 3 initial point situation?

It's 7.72%

Meaning that 87.05% of the times our Banker bets are long term losers.
And of course that 12.95% of the times are huge long term winners.

It could happen that some shoes are so badly shuffled that the asym formation would be more or less likely in many portions of the shoe, we can take into account the consecutiveness of the asym apparition, the quality of asym situations etc.

Say you want to split the shoe into 6-hands betting portions (bet for real or fictionally). At a 8-deck shoe you'll get around 12 situations (ties ignored).
It's impossible that every situation will be symmetrically placed, thus some portions must involve a B advantage (asym apparition).
Nevertheless most portions are symmetrically placed getting a very different EV depending upon which side we like to bet.
It could happen that one or more asym hands will show up within every single portion of this shoe (thus making profitable a B wagering), but I guess it's more likely we'll hit a slot jackpot.

More likely and knowing that the asym hand apparition probability is around 8%, some portions will be asym hands free.
The average probability is that a slight lesser amount of such portions will be symmetrically placed. Actually a balanced occurence of asym hands cannot get a steady pace for obvious reasons, so we could infer that more than one asym hands might show up in one or more portions. Therefore lowering (or increasing) the probability on subsequent portions.

Not giving a damn about the actual results, we know that the shoe is producing an average amount of pure sym or asym/sym portions.
Portions formed by all sym hands cannot elicit other than a Player betting. On the contrary, portions containing one or possibly more asym hands will elicit a Banker wagering.

Combined with the very slight propensity to get the opposite result, asym hand quality and actual outcome, general asymmetricity of card distributions and some other features regarding specific random walks, it's not that difficult to spot the situations where our EV will be neutral or hugely shifted toward one side or another.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: RickK on July 12, 2020, 03:16:44 AM
Had some questions with regard to the portion of this post listed below....

"Reasoning in this way we could build a result plan just on the very first four cards dealt.
As long as Player draws and Banker do not show a 5, 4 or a 3, we are really in good shape when betting Player.
Conversely, this is the exact situation we want to look for when wagering Banker.

Going to less likely situations, we see that any standing/natural situation can only advantage Player side itlr, even if in that shoe any Player 7 point will lose everytime to a Banker natural."

1)  with regard to the Banker side total after a Player draw...assuming you didn't include 6 for better percentage results ?...and should Banker total be only 2 card total or is 3 card acceptable ? or does 3 card Banker not make it asymmetrical ?

2) Does "the very first four cards dealt" refer to the first four cards of the shoe ?

3) With regard to "any standing/natural situation" favoring player... a natural on either side, favors player ? and if a natural occurs on each side (same hand) that would favor Player also ?

4) Also one last question not related to this post, but may have been addressed elsewhere on the forum, how do you handle a Player 2 card total / Banker 3 card total ??

As always, thank you...
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 12, 2020, 10:03:50 PM
Hi Rickk!

1) Most Banker asymmetrical strenght comes from standing 4s and 5s (and at a way lesser degree from standing 3s). In those instances when Banker must draw after knowing the third card dealt to Player, the hand becomes symmetrical.
Banker initial 6s are, along with pure sym situations, the points you really do not want to get when betting Banker as the hand becomes asymmetrical only when a third card 6 or 7 is dealt to the Player. And in this instance the B disadvantage is just lowered.
If itlr you'll know for sure that one side will get a 6 initial point (symmetrical probability) but you don't know which side gets this point, would you prefer to wager P or B?

2) Nope.
First four cards I'm referring to are extracted from every new hand situation.
Say we want to build up two simple random walks according to the actual shoe distribution in terms of initial four card points.
Itlr the side kissed by a higher 4-card initial point will be favored to win.
Of course there's no debate that a 6 or 7 (or natural) P initial point will get the best of it itlr. As the same equally probable counterpart is not going to get the same edge for obvious reasons.

The problem arises when Player is forced to draw (0-5 points) and Banker shows a 3,4 or 5 initial point that makes the above assumption worthless.
But we know the general probability that such thing will happen.

There are times when Player crosses situations where the higher initial point will belong to asymmetrical propositions and others when the asym B force is denied at the start.

Moreover a kind of third random walk could be put in action anytime higher initial points will win or lose depending upon the actual nature of third (or fourth) card.
This being the natural reflex (at various degrees) of the actual card distribution that must deny a perfect balanced distribution.

3) By any means any standing/natural situation (being equally probable) will favor Player side wagering.
For that matter, try to observe how happy are casinos' acute floormen working at HS tables when clueless players are jumping in joy after winning a Banker bet by a natural. Those players do not know that they are losing a huge amount of money itlr. 

4) Overall any 2 card Player point vs 3-card Banker point is hugely favorite to win itlr.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 14, 2020, 10:39:57 PM
Let's summarize which points we really want to get while wagering B or P side.
Remember that four card initial points on both sides are perfect equally likely.

A) When wagering Player side, of course we want to get a standing/natural point.
It doesn't matter if our P 6 point will lose to a higher point (B7 or B natural or any higher 3-card B drawing situation).
Itlr any P standing situation will make this bet EV+.

On the other end, the same standing/natural points not belonging to any asym situation falling on B side will make any B bet EV-.

Thus, regardless of the actual result, those symmetrical and specular situations will be hugely favourable when betting one side and of great detrimental when wagering the other one.

B) We bet Player and Player must draw.
Quite bad news as now we have to escape the probability that Banker gets a 3, 4 or 5 initial point.
In the remaining cases, Player can't be disadvantaged, actually it's slightly advantaged in the P5-B4 situation.
Of course in the 0-1-2 specular B/P drawing points, highest point will be favored to win itlr, but in the same long run such probability will be equally distributed.

C) We bet Banker and Player must draw.

Unless our B point is 5, 4 or 3 we're losing money itlr.
It's quite funny to watch at those players jumping in joy whenever their Banker bets are won by a natural or standing point.
Actually they are losing a lot of money.

D) Both sides must draw (no third card rule can affect the outcomes).

A perfect symmetrical scenario where the winning side is payed 0.95:1 and the other one 1:1.

Long term baccarat results are just the cumulative sum of mathematical propositions.
There are no ways to humanly guess a fkng nothing unless we take care of the above math situations.

Hence when wagering Player or Banker side we ought to estimate the actual probability to get: 

- a standing/natural point on P side when wagering Player;

- the exact situation to cross a Player drawing hand facing a Banker 5, 4 or 3 point when betting Banker.

Since the former scenario is affected by huge volatility and of course not involving a math edge, mostly we should focus our attention about the latter scenario, being profitable by ranges and not by precise situations.

It's a sure fact that people making a living by playing baccarat are those capable to catch the situations when their P bets are crossing more standing/natural points on Player side than expected and/or when their B bets are getting a higher ratio of P drawing/B 3,4 or 5 points than  expected.

The rest  belongs to the Imagination song:  "Just an illusion"

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 20, 2020, 11:36:07 PM
At baccarat we should play probabilities and there are general probabilities and actual probabilities.

No doubt at bac key cards are 9s, 8s and 7s.
Itlr and per every shoe dealt the side getting most of those key cards at positions #1-#3 and/or #2-#4 will get a sure advantage.
Actually 9s, 8s and 7s falling at P side will get a higher EV impact than the same cards falling at B side.

Those cards are not the cards you want to see when instructing the dealer to show "just one card" on the opposite side.

There are many other ways to form 9, 8 or 7 initial points but itlr the 9-zero value card, 8-zero value card and 7-zero value card are overwhelming the rest.

It could happen that the side getting most part of 7s, 8s and 9s will lose to the counterpart. Besides the less likely situations where those cards forming an exact 7, 8 or 9 point will lose to higher points, those cards could combine themselves with very low cards producing "worthless" points. Think about 7-3, 8-2, 9-A, 9-2, etc..
Such probability is symmetrical.

Of course per each shoe dealt those cards cannot be equally distributed on both sides. The fact that those key cards could combine with low cards getting very low points shouldn't affect the main concept that the higher the card falling on a given side, the better the probability to win.
Altogether naturally is to generally think that key cards cannot fall endlessly on one side.

It's like considering those key cards as a kind of "wild cards": they may hugely, moderately, slightly or not at all help "our" hand.

In some way, outcomes are the direct reflex of those endless (but finite as considered per every shoe dealt) propositions.
Most of the times such key cards will enhance the production of short symmetrical outcomes, it's only when the actual key card distribution tend to strongly privilege one side that B or P will take a substantial advantage over the other one.
And of course there's the rare asymmetrical impact working (or not) for B favored hands.

I mean that itlr third or fourth card happenings will affect outcomes way lesser than what initial points will do, as the initial point gap situation involves an increased 7% advantage over asymmetrical hands.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 26, 2020, 11:19:38 PM
Say we want to transform the game into mere symmetrical successions where asymmetrical hands do not form B results, thus considering them as a bonus when betting Banker and a kind of losing zero at roulette when betting Player.

Naturally the asym hand apparition remains a bonus (+15.86%) on B bets and a same negative happening on P wagers.
Thus it's not a sure win or loss on either sides.
Surely our long term results will be affected by the number of times we crossed an asym hand when betting B, and at the same time by the number of times we met an asym situation when betting P.

Itlr and in absence of a valuable bet selection the AS/S ratio will approach more and more to the expected 8.6/91.4 ratio. Therefore we are losing.
And the EV gap between a long term betting made on B instead of P is 0.18%.

Therefore there are only two options to win or to lower/cancel the HE:

a- getting an higher asym/sym hands ratio than expected capable to invert the HE when wagering Banker;

b- wagering Player only on symmetrical situations.

Then what might help us to define the terms of the problem?

Average asym hand distribution, for example.

Players are too focused about the actual outcome, maybe in the effort to follow an unguessable succession.
When betting Banker we must hope that no matter how are consecutively placed our bets an asym hand must come out within a shorter gap than expected.
Otherwise we're losing money, a lot of money I mean, even if the actual pattern is a symmetrical  BBBBBBBBPBBBB succession (for that matter even a single asym hand happening on this sequence is a long term money loser when regularly betting banker)

Gaps between more frequent symmetrical hands and rare asymmetrical spots.

Asym-asym hand apparition hugely favors the B side and actually some shoes will present many asym hands distributed in couples (or more).
In reality. more often than not asym hands come out in single apparitions (for obvious reasons) or clustered at some portion of the shoe.
We ought to remember that natural/standing points on Player side totally deny the asym hand happening and some Player drawing points crossing an asym hand are actually favorite to win (think about a P5-B4 drawing situation).

On the other end, it's sure as hell that at least a couple of asym hands will come out per every shoe played. Meaning that sooner or later a constant Player betting virtually getting an EV not lower than zero, will cross those unfavourable spots where our P bet is worthless.

Symmetrical spots

Sym spots hugely favor Player side for several reasons:

- first, we're playing no worse than a fair game as bets will be payed 1:1;

- secondly, as long as no asym hand will be formed, key cards will land equally on both sides;

- third, the 7/6 symmetrical standing point situation is unequally payed regarding which side we bet.

The idea is that baccarat should be considered not just in terms of patterns but in term of ranges (gaps) helping one side at various degrees or at worst not damaging the other one.
Sometimes (just for practical purposes) the most likely pattern distribution tend to correspond to those ranges. 

Knowing that most outcomes are in direct relationship of sym hands results, we should focus our attention about the actual probability and distribution to get higher initial four-card points as this is the main tool that shift the results.

A thing that we'll discuss tomorrow.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 27, 2020, 11:33:34 PM
It's intuitive to think that itlr chopping lines showing at most likely degrees (singles and doubles) are the direct reflex of a low imbalance of key cards.
Therefore long streaks must come out whenever a strong imbalance of key cards come out.

Nonetheless key cards are finitely placed as they are burnt from the play. Say they must be more or less concentrated along the deck.

It's true that strong points could be made by "normal" cards as a combination of 3 and 6 or 4 and 4 could do, for example. And of course many results will be dictated by "weird" situations as a 4 getting a 4 vs a standing 6 etc.
But those spots are just belonging to the short term deviations category.

Say we want that our strategy is set up in order to only bet Player side, thus trying to get a kind of advantage.
There are three steps to look for.

1- we want a higher initial point

2- we want a standing point

3- we do not want to cross an asym hand.

Anytime we get a higher initial point and regardless of the quality of the hand, we're hugely favorite to win.
Naturally key cards distribution play a great role on that. In a sense we want the shoe to get a low imbalance of key cards on the portions of shoe we chose to wager.

A standing point (6s, 7s and naturals) come out at P side with a 38% probability and of course any P standing point is favorite to win.
Such 38% probability could be more or less concentrated along the various portions of the shoe.

Finally, any P drawing situation (a close to 50/50 probability) is susceptible of crossing a 3,4,5 or 6 B point, therefore being strong unfavorite (at various degrees) to win unless the initial point is higher.

Mathematically speaking it's like playing a coin flip game, a kind of 38/62 ratio and a reversed 62/38 ratio considered at different steps.

Remember that at any 8-deck shoe symmetrical initial points will come out at those percentages:

0 = 14.74%
1 = 9.49%
2 = 9.45%
3 = 9.49%
4 = 9.45%
5 = 9.49%
6 = 9.45%
7 = 9.49%
8 = 9.45%
9 = 9.49%

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 10, 2020, 09:36:09 PM
At baccarat we can't consider any single outcome as a valid outcome in our registration unless if following normal math percentages.

For example, say the pattern is BBPP

Here we must consider first whether BB is coming from mere sym propositions, meaning that B in both cases wasn't advantaged by the rules.

Secondly we must assess whether PP didn't cross an unfavourable asym hand getting the best of it by starting underdog.

Most of the time BBPP pattern is the product of sym propositions as the asym strenght will act by the old 8.6/91.4 ratio.
Not everytime.

On the same line and more practically speaking, after a single P we should know that betting Banker means to hope that Banker will cross an asym hand more likely than not. Otherwise we're losing money.

The same after a single B apparition.

That means that there's no value to detect sym situations unless our strategy will dictate to bet Player or, reversely taken, that while wagering Banker we hadn't estimate that an asym hand is coming around shortly.

Again about key cards.

Definitely 8s and 9s will favor the side where those cards fall on. The probability those cards will fall into the first four positions is perfectly equal.
But whenever the third card is an 8 or a 9, Player side is unfavorite to get a valid point to win.
It's like 8s and 9s are symmetrically placed unless the 5th position is involved. The impact itlr is much greater about fifth positions than sixth positions as some part of 6th cards are not allowed to show up for the rules.

It could happen that Player gets some winning hands by the help of such key cards falling at 5th position (aka Player gets 0 and/or 1 initial point). But if we run infinite times this situation we'll lose.
The reversed situation is less likely to happen as some B initial points won't elicit a draw.

Therefore many seemingly equal patterns aren't equal by any means.

There's no doubt that long term results are the direct reflex of math percentages and those math percentages are the direct reflex of initial points and third card points actual situations.

Say most 7s and 8s have fallen on initial two card B side and we can't care less about actual outcomes.
Do you really expect that on the following hands the remaining 7s and 8s are more likely to fall on P side?

Same about third cards.
Third cards, while whimsically placed as they could intervene in the hand or not, are following a more or less attitude to help or not P side; in some way they constitute a supplemental random walk no matter which will be the real result.

Actually best playable shoes are those which seem to conform at most to normal math propositions and according to bac features already known here; those which aren't must be abandoned at the first opportunity.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 18, 2020, 10:39:56 PM
Say we want to build new "roads" originating by the simple B/P results succession.
For example, we classify outcomes as S (same) or O (opposite) according to a preordered pace, e.g. 4. We register our new result in relationship of what happened four hands back.
Since this new road is single paced, every outcome will be recorded but the first four results.

BBBPBPPBBPBPBPPP.. becomes

S
OOO
SS
OO
SS
O
S...

This new sequence isn't directly affected by the asymmetrical BP probability as our S/O signs distribution do not correspond to a B or P result.

Simply put, it's very hard to precisely deduce from S/O distributions what really happened on those shoes in terms of BP outcomes.
Of course the probability to be right or wrong is 50/50 and only long samples might help us to assign the proper BP results to our S/O registrations.

Now we are working into one of the simplest world of place selection.

Of course some BP patterns are going to produce (or not) homogeneous S/O situations:

BPBPBPBPBP = SSSSSS

BBPPBBPPBB = SSSSSS

BBBBPPPPBB = OOOOOO

BPBPPBPBBP = OOOOOO

Taken from the simplest definition of symmetricity, those are balanced outcomes as the number of Bs is equal to the number of Ps (except of the third pattern shortened for simplicity)

Actually it could happen that even strong unbalanced sequences as BBPBBBPBBB... (or the opposite counterpart) or long B or P streaks (longer than 9) will produce a SSSSSS pattern.

Now the question is whether this new S/O sequence alone could help us to define the features of the shoe we are playing/observing.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 19, 2020, 09:38:21 PM
The answer is yes, providing one can look properly at what must happen, may happen or cannot happen (in this last instance it's better to say very very very unlikely to happen).

Now our SOS (save our 'Bac' souls) road is one of the most reliable source to rely upon when we're trying to detect every shoe in the universe.

Of course a long term profitable strategy should be focused about what must happen, what may happen being just a kind of jackpot, and at the same time trying to avoid at all costs what very very very rarely could happen.

According to our data and results, the probability that some "key" events will appear or not on a given shoe are in relationship to the previous outcomes and quality features.
This helps us to avoid to play at shoes that do not seem to fit our requisites.

Again, there's nothing to guess and nothing to follow just playing the probabilities.
Under normal circumstances we do not want to hope for jackpots or force the unlikely not to happen.

The very few people making a living I know place large bets rarely or quite rarely. They win insignificant number of bets per shoe played (not to mention per shoes observed) but with an astounding regularity.
We should copy them.

as.   
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 23, 2020, 11:54:23 PM
The casinos fortune is not made upon the math edge but about players.
They even might offer a zero HE baccarat game where both sides draw or stand in the same way (no third card rule) and winning bets are payed 1:1. They would still make a lot of money.

Thus before playing we should ask to ourselves what should be our edge.
Imo here are some of the principal wrong thoughts:

1- "I'm capable to read randomness"

Well, if this is the case I better present my ideas and my scientifical findings to MIT or NASA. I'll make more money than sitting at a baccarat table.
A better statement would be "I think that in my field I can spot some objective situations where supposedly randomness seems to be pseudo randomness or unrandomness at various degrees".
Scientifically speaking that means to provide strict measurements of my assertion made on long trials.

2- "My money management can overcome the negative HE itlr"

From a conceptual point of view, this is a worse statement than the previous one.
Whereas a possible randomness reader could get some possible hints to take advantage from (of course under the form of occasional non randomness), there's no one possibility in the world that a MM strategy could overcome a random negative edge game itlr.

3- "I'm trying to win more on positive situations and losing less on negative ones"

That's another bighornshit.

Positive and negative situations will equal itlr and without a careful assessment of the events where sd values are way more restricted than expected, there's no way to know how and when
I'll get positive or negative events.

4- "My profit goal is X bets per single shoe or per Y shoes played .

It's like we want to subdue randomness or even partial unrandomness in the way we humanly set up previously.
This is not only an impossible task but a math heresy.

Now let's try to get the best of it by considering the above assertions.

1- If I've found to be a randomness expert I should know that a possible unrandomness is an occasional finding and anyway it should not be exploited for long.
Generally my ROI is 0.9894 and 0.9876 when I win and 1 when I lose.
Therefore before betting I either would prefer to get just one profit unit under favourable circumstances or to hope that a given random walk gets an interesting probability to get all winnings in the entire shoe.
Playing every hand or most hands or half (or 1/3) of the deck cannot accomplish this task. 

2- Getting an edge means to win by flat betting by 1 trillion of accuracy.
No flat betting win = no party.
Notice that a flat betting strategy may involve several small adjustments in the betting process, anyway itlr the sum of the same level bets must be superior to a random wagering.

3-  The general probability to win or lose a single hand remains the same, what changes is the actual probability to win after some quantity and quality events happened so far in the shoe.
As I sayed many times in my pages, what happened in the past must be properly registered other than from a strict B/P or R/B or S/O point of view.

4- We know very well that it's quite difficult to be ahead after 3 or 4 played shoes other than by benefiting from the luck factor. Let alone to be ahead per every shoe played.
Actually it's very very unlikely to be ahead of something whether we're flat betting randomly five sections formed by 4 or 5 consecutive shoes, no matter how many bets we're putting into the felt.

I mean that it's virtually impossible to get consecutive profitable shoes by flat betting no matter how's diluted our wagering.

We must discard some shoes from our play.

See you tomorrow

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on August 24, 2020, 01:44:25 AM
In response to the above post.

Number 1 Top Section:  Spot-on.

Number 2 Top Section:   Money management if used with a method that is good, will allow additional wins to come without jeopardizing your Buy In or Reserve Money in front of you. However the method must be able to take advantage of opportunity and you must stop when the opportunity is finished. If not, false positives and false hopes will wipe you out each and every time.

Money Management does not overcome anything, it only regulates you if you apply it correctly and can strictly adhere to it.  IMO, not always easy to do at a live table. It can be done but it is very difficult.

Number 3 Top Section:  Positive situations as you say, I say 'presentments of opportunity'. You are correct. However they are not equal. Positive ones in my opinion will always be less than that of the negative ones.

Number 4 Top Section:  This is most people's downfall for not winning what opportunity does present itself when they play.  They restrict themselves with false positives and false hopes, and those become huge burdens forbidding the catch of any flow with any kind of sizable wins as it is happening.

Number 1 Bottom Section:  I would personally never flat bet and bet continuously, it is sheer suicide if you're playing shoe after shoe even for say three shoes unless you get extremely lucky and have something going strictly in your favor. But that won't be for more than one session most likely. With that said, what I would stress is that 1/3 figure to be a strict  20 to 25 hands maximum.

Number 4 Bottom Section:  Spot on. One or two shoes or possibly a third shoe is probably a session maximum, if the person won anything sizable on shoe #1 and #2 or lost on shoe #1 and recouped and won on shoe #2. Seldom into the 4th shoe or more. In reality, in the casino that is. After shoe #3 going into #4 it is going to be extremely hard to be unbiased, adhere to money management, not be emotional-either positive or negative emotions and if you did win your greed level will rise very quickly and immensely.   Most players do not even realize the burden that they have on them once they start winning and winning sizeable amounts.  They become so emotional and so egotistical, bulletproof and greedy, that they cannot see straight and are almost guaranteed to give it back, give up all their buy in money as well as any additional reserve money they have on them every time.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 24, 2020, 08:42:14 PM
Thanks for your interesting reply Al!

Regardless of the method one likes to use, I see a common trait between my thoughts and your words: the probability to win doesn't come around any corner, we ought to select possible profitable spots within the realm of chaotic disorder.

Thinking in this way we can assume that per every three shoes played, one could be good, the second neutral and the third quite bad (in any order, of course).
Since, as Al correctly sayed, good is inferior to bad for the negative edge, after having won we must expect to lose everything back and naturally there are no guarantees that after bad a balanced good is going to come out shortly.

It could happen that two, three or even more consecutive shoes produced all good situations, yet the probability this thing happens is very low.

At the same token, it could happen that two, three or more shoes will form bad events and it's now that the catastrophe is coming.

We can't give the casino the luxury to know that we are going to bet every shoe dealt (or most part of them).

That's the downfall of every mechanical method presented or sold everywhere.
A method is set up in order to win no matter what, maybe stuffed with worthless stop win or stop loss techniques.

We can't interfere with probabilities, they are just there and it's up to us to estimate what's more likely now.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on August 25, 2020, 02:13:42 PM
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on August 24, 2020, 08:42:14 PM
Thanks for your interesting reply Al!

Regardless of the method one likes to use, I see a common trait between my thoughts and your words: the probability to win doesn't come around any corner, we ought to select possible profitable spots within the realm of chaotic disorder.

Thinking in this way we can assume that per every three shoes played, one could be good, the second neutral and the third quite bad (in any order, of course).
Since, as Al correctly sayed, good is inferior to bad for the negative edge, after having won we must expect to lose everything back and naturally there are no guarantees that after bad a balanced good is going to come out shortly.

Well yes and no. And that is why mechanical and scheduled wagering systems will never excel to the point where they are repetitively making money. But with a proper, positive and concrete Money Management Method the player will excel if he wins. Like I have always said your buy-in amounts will be your risk capital and has to be. If you can capture and capitalize on the presentments that are positive and do appear, you will make a good amount of money. But that will not happen in every session. That is why your wins have to far surpass your buy-in volume amounts rather than a mere two, three or four units of profit, the way most people are claiming these days on the internet gambling forums.

It could happen that two, three or even more consecutive shoes produced all good situations, yet the probability this thing happens is very low.   You are exactly spot on, right at 100%. It would be extremely a rare session where shoe after shoe for several shoes all produced good situations repetitively so.

At the same token, it could happen that two, three or more shoes will form bad events and it's now that the catastrophe is coming.  I believe most of us spot more bad then good even after it happens. And we tend to remember bad more so then good, unless we won a considerable amount of money on the good. Maybe because if we missed the good, we plain messed up?

We can't give the casino the luxury to know that we are going to bet every shoe dealt (or most part of them).

That's the downfall of every mechanical method presented or sold everywhere.
A method is set up in order to win no matter what, maybe stuffed with worthless stop win or stop loss techniques.

We can't interfere with probabilities, they are just there and it's up to us to estimate what's more likely now.   You raised a point and it's a point of view. However I believe my point of view is to catch it while it's happening and not estimate what's more likely to happen.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 29, 2020, 09:26:16 PM
Thanks Al!
I fear that most of your points rely upon your long experience very few baccarat players have...
Simulated shoes are not real shoes and simulated outcomes are not real outcomes, especially if one considers red or blue dots simply as red or blue dots...

Hands cutting or prolonging a pattern

Baccarat is not roulette where a red number has the identical probability to appear than two of the "losing" or "winning" contiguous black numbers and vice versa.

Say the shoe produced the PPP pattern.
Most of the times this situation comes from mere symmetrical hands getting the same probability to appear.
Sometimes (and you should know how much are those probabilities), PPP pattern comes from one asym hand not favoring B side and two sym hands; rarely two asym hands didn't favor B side and very very rarely all three asym hands went to P side despite the math disadvantage.

Anyway let's assume this PPP pattern was formed by an unknown asym/sym ratio. 

Now we decide to bet Banker because:

- generally speaking, Banker is a less disadvantaged hand

- itlr P3>P3+

- there is always the very slight propensity to get the opposite hand just formed.

At various degrees, all those points derive from sensible math and stats features, thus there's no doubt that itlr we'll get more B hands than P hands.

In the hand in question, Player shows a zero point and Banker a 3, 4, 5, 6 or 7.
In a word, we are slight, moderate or strong favorite to win the hand.

The third card is an 8, therefore we'll lose the hand, despite of the initial general and actual advantage.

Next two hands are two P hands, hence the actual pattern is PPPPPP instead of a more likely (in our example) PPPBPP pattern.

From a strict math and ROI point of view, our Banker bet was really right just whether Banker had shown a 3, 4 or 5 initial point. Actually the best situation was to get a Banker 5 point followed by a 4 and then by a 3.
Since the probability to get 3,4 or 5 is more than 3/2 placed than having Banker to show 6 or 7, we know that this bet was EV+. 

But more importantly is to see that that PPPPPP pattern didn't follow a more likely scenario as a strong shifted situation hasn't happened.
Notice that among the Banker options, I've discounted a natural as it involves an unnecessary 0.95:1 payement.
I mean that itlr we'll be in way better shape when trying to cut a banker streak by estimating that a natural (or standing point) is coming at P side than vice versa.

Even if is totally true that a sensible strategy could get the best of it by splitting the outcomes in 1s, 2s and 3s, is altogether true that long streaks must be properly classified as quite unlikely to show up by mere symmetrical propositions.

Very often quality overcomes quantity.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on August 31, 2020, 07:27:00 PM
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on August 29, 2020, 09:26:16 PM
Thanks Al!
I fear that most of your points rely upon your long experience very few baccarat players have...
Simulated shoes are not real shoes and simulated outcomes are not real outcomes, especially if one considers red or blue dots simply as red or blue dots...



Very often quality overcomes quantity.

as.


Belief in Something.  Influenced.  Visual Factors.

Here, let me spell something out.  If you believe something even if not scientific, mathematical or historically discovered, proven and absolutely correct, is it wrong?  What I mean is, can you have something you do that is correct and proper for yourself in your situation or circumstances?  And have that work positive for you and for what purpose you created it or found it?

Reality will supersede in factual results.  Always will, it must.  Does not matter what you are doing, the factual results will cancel, accept or discount whatever you introduce along the way, at the end.  Do we agree?

Problem is, almost all of us do not really think at the table when we are playing baccarat.  We really do not.  We get sucked in and we get sucked in big time.  Sure, you can read this and shrug your shoulders and say, Glen you do, I do not.  But hey, we both know that is wrong.

Just about all of us have two ways to play this game. One is in our heads, on paper, on the computer and everywhere else except the live brick and mortar event itself.  The other, is the brick and mortar event.  Lots of things happen when we get to the casino.  And the sad part of it all, they happen without any of us doing anything.  We are oblivious to them and we chase everything and pursue every avenue except ourselves to control, govern and take charge of ourselves in the proper way at the casino.  Again, shrug your shoulders and say I have no idea what I am talking about, but I do and I do 100 percent for about 98 to 99 percent of everyone.

Most of what really does happen at a casino is the person is influenced from the effects of the visual factors. The visual factors present themselves in varying ways to the different people there.  The influencing manipulates in varying stages and degrees as well.  But the bottom line is, it happens, and it happens repeatedly throughout the session(s) to the people.  Because the people are in a situation, they believe they belong in, are comfortable in and will prevail, their understanding of that same situation is not being addressed or understood.  And that is where the problem lies and develops and preys upon the people that gamble at the game of baccarat.

The Most Dangerous Thing at Baccarat.

What is the most dangerous thing, the most powerful thing and the thing that causes wrongful beliefs, dangerous influences and life changing factors within hours?  It is money.  The same as it does in businesses and families.  Just in those two it takes a much longer time to come to fruition.

I will never forget a guy back in Atlantic City, New Jersey.  It was at Bally's Grand casino property.  I remember this guy to this day vividly clear and this was back around the very early 1990's.  He was in a light-colored blue blazer with dress pants and a dark yellow dress shirt.  He was gambling, I did not know him.  Somehow, we made eye contact.  I was a few seats away at a big baccarat table, the kind with the 2 sides with 7 players to each side and the 3 dealers in the middle of the table.  He kept pulling out envelope after envelope of cash from his inside pocket of his jacket when he would lose whatever he had in front of him.  Not small money but not anything record breaking for a larger casino anyway.  I think the envelopes had like $5,000.00 or so in each one.  He is burning through them steady.  A couple of hours pass, and he looks over at me and says, I can not believe how much I spent already, this is my life savings I am gambling with.  A while goes by and he says almost the same thing again.  His face is turning cold and hard looking.  He is stiff.  After another bit of time he pulls out an envelope and tells me, this is my last bit of cash, if I lose this, I am broke, financially ruined within one day.  I really could not say anything at the time, I never realized how gambling effected people back then.  You must realize at that time I was in the New York City adult business as well as the restaurant business in Midtown Manhattan and cash was never a problem and everyone, I gambled with was business owners that gave a new meaning to the words, liquid assets.  But this guy, I will never forget.  Of course, within say 30 minutes or so, he loses the buy in of his last envelope.  He looks at me and I look at him.  He has this blank stare on his face, real deep and dark.  Real sad looking.  He just sits there looking at the table and the floor, alternating between the two.  I do not know how much he burned through, but I would say it was between $100,000.00 and $200,000.00 judging by the envelopes I saw him go through after he caught my attention.  I will never forget that gentlemen.  The conviction he had, the seriousness, the methodical buy ins, etc., etc., and so on.


Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on August 31, 2020, 08:42:41 PM
"I fear that most of your points rely upon your long experience very few baccarat players have..."

Facts are interpreted differently by each of us in a game like Baccarat, dependent upon each of our own experiences.

In my own opinion it's all based around that, and that is a start for the way each of us will wager and what each of our session Visions might be.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on September 01, 2020, 09:53:08 PM
Here's one more for you that kind of goes with everything that you're talking about. After all these years of play I remember this one guy at the baccarat tables in Atlantic City back in the 1990s, winning more overall than I ever seen anybody win on a regular basis. He would always buy in with right at $10,000 and  get $1,000 of it in green and the rest in black and purple chips.

He was the absolute most patient, non-emotional, laid back player that had the ability to sit there very patiently, make a bunch of table minimum bets just to keep the floor people happy and wager, maybe two or three times extremely heavy per shoe. He would play probably no more than two shoes possibly three and then leave. He won the highest majority of all of his large bets. Thinking back I can remember about the only three times he would wager heavy.

1)  Wager on the cut back after a decent streak to whatever the streak was;

2)  Wager post tie on the player side, depending on the first few/prior hands after ties, if those did go and cut to the players side;

3)  Wager once or twice on a section that started a true chop-chop, alternating from Banker to Player.

Never did any Martingales, never did any progressions, never chased anything, never got any type of greed to get sucked in whatsoever.

But what was amazing to this day, are the amount of hands he really came to wager and how he did it.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 02, 2020, 07:34:21 AM
I'm deadly sure many bac players are long term winners, it's people who most of the times go unnoticed.
They smile at other players when an improbable long winning streak is giving them a lot of money, yet they do not bet a fkng dime.
But at the same time they never be caught in the specular losing streak, still smiling.

as.


Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 12, 2020, 01:21:34 AM
We should print in our mind there's no fkng way to beat this game itlr unless a defect of randomness at various degrees is working.

Sometimes it could happen that a normal distribution could be interpreted as a kind of unrandomness, mostly as some patterns seem to get a uniform shape.
That's now that we must consider along with quantity factors the more important quality factors.

I repeat, we can't expect to be long term winners whenever our bets aren't getting the first two card advantage itlr.
That's why progressions can't be of any help unless our bets succession will get a strong math edge itlr. That is unless our bet selection will get an edge by a simple flat betting.

If the improper shuffle parameter seems to be of paramount importance, think about how many times this factor will act along the shoes by percentages.

Do you think that every shoe dealt is affected by a decisive degree of unrandomness?
No tocking way.

Many times shoes are properly shuffled, meaning that randomness is accomplished. In those situations there's no fkng way to beat the game.

Random production equals to random betting that equals to a math negative proposition.

Think about those shoes where standing P points are losing to higher Banker points.
This specific random walk is strong asymmetrical as P 6s and 7s points are strong favorite itlr.
Nonetheless in our short term sample they have lost.

More interestingly is whenever the third card strongly helps (or not) several times P side, no matter which is the B point. Sometimes we have chosen the right side, meaning B side shows a higher point, especially if the hand is a pure asymmetrical hand by the rules.
In any case, this is another random walk.

In both cases quality doesn't correspond to quantity, that is math is temporariliy disregared by the actual card distribution.

People who have won such hands will think to be geniuses or lucky, actually they are either stup.id or stupi.d in either scenarios.

There's no one possibility in the world to be a long term bac winner whether our bets aren't getting the right math side of the proposition, either by crossing the higher initial 4-card point or, a lot better, by getting a higher asym hands percentage than expected while wagering Banker.
No matter the actual outcomes.

Up to the point where some shoes which went mathematically wrong for long cannot be of any future betting value.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 20, 2020, 08:43:37 PM
What about a MM which SEEMS to get a primary role over a proper bet selection?

First, there are bet selections getting us a long term edge (albeit small), thus we know to be on the right side of the betting options.
They do not come up around the corner, we need certain moderate deviations to be exploited and of course the main reason why we get an edge is because unrandom portions of the shoe are more likely than we think.

Second, most of our bets made by utilizing a MM along with a weak BS will get a negative EV, it could happen that by coincidence we catch one or several key EV+ hands. But itlr we are going uphill.
Surely a simple MM will raise the probability of success but almost always wil lfollow the negative values we expect to get.
Of course a MM enlarge our profits only whenever we know our betting spots are getting a positive EV.

Third, there's no way in the universe to play profitably an EV- game when we think it's randomly placed.
It's a pure contradiction in terms.


About bet selection.

I stress again about the importance of asym/sym concept widely taken.
We can't give a fkng fk about what math experts keep to state, they make their assumptions about a perfect complete randomness of the outcomes.
No way itlr a 50.68/49.32 dynamic probability will get the same probability to show up per every hand dealt.

The fact that casinos will get huge profits from baccarat tables doesn't mean that every single bac player is a fkng loser.

Per every shoe dealt, cards are arranged in a more or less asymmetrical fashion. Think about 8s and 9s falling here or there. Even if 8s and 9s are equally distributed, second card of each side will prompt more or less likely winning results.
Same about third card values, now more important as they tend to confirm or deny a possible light/moderate/strong asymmetricity either by numbers or by rules.

More on that later.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 21, 2020, 01:45:32 AM
I repeat, the only way to know if we're betting the right side ITLR is by assessing how many times our selection got math favorite spots in form of higher two card initial points.
We shouldn't care a damn whether in the actual shoe played our 7s are losing to higher points, itlr we'll win.

In some sense we could transform actual results into two first card situations. Itlr no way a 2 initial point is going to win more times than an opposing 3 point and so on.

As explained here many times, baccarat results are the direct reflex of math situations. Not everytime a math advantaged spot will form a win, but to get a long term edge we have to bet those math advantaged spots anyway, otherwise we're destined to lose.

The more we're winning those unfavorite math spots, higher will be the probability to lose subsequent bets.

We can't control the real outcomes, more likely we can make a fair estimation larger than 50% about the side which will be kissed by a higher 2-card point.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 27, 2020, 07:21:37 AM
Asymmetricity is not in the eye of the beholder, it's just a pure objective fact not needing supernatural powers to be detected but some calculations.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on September 27, 2020, 08:28:12 AM
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on September 21, 2020, 01:45:32 AM


We can't control the real outcomes, more likely we can make a fair estimation larger than 50% about the side which will be kissed by a higher 2-card point.

as.

Can you please comment because this is exactly your last sentence what happened the other night and this shoe was an astronomical shoe but if you bet with your feeling or what you wanted you would have lost money.!

https://betselection.cc/baccarat-forum/absolute-fantastic-shoe-seriously-readable!/msg68849/#msg68849
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 28, 2020, 08:37:02 PM
Quote from: alrelax on September 27, 2020, 08:28:12 AM
Can you please comment because this is exactly your last sentence what happened the other night and this shoe was an astronomical shoe but if you bet with your feeling or what you wanted you would have lost money.!

https://betselection.cc/baccarat-forum/absolute-fantastic-shoe-seriously-readable!/msg68849/#msg68849

No comment on it..... ^-^

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 28, 2020, 09:15:24 PM
So after years of studying this game, I've devised the random walk capable to spot the situations where an astounding high probability of crossing a possible unrandom production at given shoes will happen, that is the necessary tool to get an edge over the casino.

For practical reasons I had to converge multiple limited random walks into an univocal line, knowing that the mere asym hands factor will be too much diluted with the more powerful sym strenght.
Of course this lack of precision will affect more the short term variance but not the overall probability of getting key cards or not at given spots.

In a word, every shoe dealt in the universe must follow some more likely key cards distributions up to the point that short term outcomes are just small interferences over the long term plan.

To do that I had to compare multiple random walks reaching some values of limiting value of relative frequency converging into a single line that will get the "on" or "off" input according to certain actual results.

Whenever such values are not getting a signficant point or, on the other side, are passing certain points, the betting line won't dictate any bet.
Naturally such points are empirically placed for simplicity, probably there are more precise assessments of this random walk run.

The important thing is that any bet made following this random walk is EV+.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 29, 2020, 01:04:19 AM
The actual procedure I discovered to get a long term flat betting winning strategy was mainly built upon R. Von Mises and M. von Smoluchoswki works made on different fields than gambling (of course).

The method is on sale for $3.500.000, so basically isn't for sale.
Let casinos think that math will guarantee them a long term profit no matter what, it's our interest to keep this statement true as long as possible.

At the same token, I admire people who made and still make their best efforts to contradict math experts statements that stubbornly think that at baccarat every proposition is EV- no matter what.

This last is a complete absolute total tocking no brainer bighornshit, a thing that only ignorant people could keep stating.
We're ready to challenge for real money those fkng "experts" claiming that every bet will be EV- no matter what, providing data will come from a real source and not from pc simulated shoes that supposedly bring a so called "perfect randomness".

Curiously most people claiming that bac is an unbeatable game couldn't provide a proper amount of REAL shoes data showing that every bet selection is worthless, just focusing about Phil Ivey's edge soprting strategy who won a lot but collected nothing.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 30, 2020, 09:28:59 PM
One of the worst approach one could make, imo, is considering bac outcomes in terms of simple B/P successions.
The game is too much affected by volatility to get hints from them.

Consider this simple BP sequence:

BBBBBBBBB

At hand #5 Player got a 7 initial point and Banker got a 2.
Banker pulled out a 6 and won the hand.

From another point of view and regardless of the previous four Banker wins quality, itlr the more likely scenario in this precise cards situation will be to form a BBBBP sequence.
Thus itlr our 9-hand Banker streak becomes a BBBBPBBBB sequence.

The fact that two or three cards combine to form the highest result shouldn't divert us from the notion that baccarat is a high card game.
Naturally two low cards (as 4-4 for example) could produce a very high result but iltr the number of 8s formed by 4-4 and 5-3 are way less likely than a simple 8-zero.
And of course the probability to get those low cards situation prompting an 8 is perfectly symmetrical.

Itlr, patterns are just the reflex of math probabilities that cannot be the product of simple linear card countings other than for very very small insignificant values (Jacobsen et al).

Since we cannot solve the bac problem mathematically, we have to dispute the real randomness of the outcomes, or better sayed, the actual probability to get a more or less shifted card distribution forming results at various degrees at the shoe we're playing at.

We know that a card distribution, no matter how whimsically placed, will get some limits of relative frequency, hence the model is dependant and finite.
A thing better evaluated by a place selection and probability after events tools that have nothing to do with simple B and P outcomes widely intended.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 05, 2020, 09:08:38 PM
To win at baccarat IN THE LONG RUN we need an advantage, a real advantage I mean.

Betting few spots alone, quitting when ahead or after a given loss, trying to not increase the wagers in negative situations (or increasing them in positive spots), betting any B/P situation alone whatever intended, any MM procedure don't make the job.

And any player wishing to play baccarat seriously must throw away the idea that baccarat is a succession of either 50/50 propositions or 50.68/49.32 still situations.
Those situations are unbeatable by any means.
See J.E. Kerrich experiments for reference and he was talking about a fair coin flip toss, so let's think about the long term results when instead of being payed 1:1 we are getting 0.9876 or 0.9894 return on our money per every coin flip.

Therefore we are forced to transfer the problem from dry math to a probability point of view. But at the same time probability world cannot be estimated without some math fundamentals.

Example.
We all know that at hold'em poker the odds that each player will get pocket Aces on the first two cards are 1:221.
Such odds are calculated by considering all possible two card combinations with the precise possibility to get one of the twelve A-A combinations.
Now suppose that in the 9-handed holde'm table we're playing at we are in seat #7 and we have reasons to think that an Ace will be more probable to fall into the first 3-4 cards dealt.
Is still 1:221 our probability to be dealt A-A?
Of course it's not.
Even considering the high variance happening at poker tables for either objective and more important subjective features, we could deduce that in that hand we are not generally favorite to win.

Even though the example is very distantly related to baccarat, we may infer that key cards determining itlr the most likely course of the result could be more or less concentrated in some portions of the shoe; with the important difference that at baccarat we get the luxury to know where (and options are just two) and how much a given key card had helped or not and by which degree the side it fell on.

Now we're not playing trends or general probabilities, we are going to wager spots where the probability to get a valuable key card falling at a given side is endorsed by some statistical features.

More on that later.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 12, 2020, 08:55:00 PM
Say we want to split our baccarat betting life into endless four-wager spots, anytime registering our W/L ratio by a simple flat betting strategy.
It doesn't matter whether we're betting those four spots consecutively or diluted at various degrees. Let alone which bet selection we would like to use.

Forgetting for now the game asymmetricity, the probability to win or lose all those spots is 1/16 (6.25%), the probability to win at least one wager over four attempts is 15/16 (93.75%).
Easy.

Now say we want to register what happens (by a mere FB placement) after a given not-bet outcome (W or L) had appeared.

The possible results are:

WWWW: +3
WWWL: +1
WWLW: +1
WWLL: -1
WLWW: +1
WLWL: -1
WLLW: -1
WLLL: -3
LLLL: -3
LLLW: -1
LLWL: -1
LLWW: +1
LWLL: -1
LWLW: +1
LWWL: +1
LWWW: +3

Of course the total sum is zero, anyway the symmetrical W/L situations among the 16 possible outcomes are just six (WWLL, WLWL, WLLW, LLWW, LWLW and LWWL).

Math teachs us that no matter which spot we'll decide to bet, any W/L pattern will get the same probability to appear. More specifically that at baccarat every spot wagered will get, itlr, a 50.68/49.32 probability to happen.

In reality the actual card distribution could endorse or not the probability to get, per every four-spots wagered, a symmetrical or asymmetrical situation.

Actually the above considerations reflect a perfect symmetrical 50/50 production, but baccarat is a slight asymmetrical game as itlr B>P.
It may happen that along the shoe we're playing at the slight asymmetricity will endorse a "fictional" simmetricity or, on the other end, increasing a natural asymmetricity.

How can we do to "solve" the problem?

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 14, 2020, 09:49:04 PM
Instead of thinking as baccarat as a BP outcomes game, we should consider the average probability to get a shoe composition prompting certain degrees of math advantaged situations.
Thinking this way we cannot give a fkng damn about short term results that only give the players false illusions or harsh disappointments.

It's a kind of edge sorting technique obtained by statistical tools and randomness considerations.

Itlr, results are the product of math advantaged situations making hopping lines of various lenght from one side to another.
We can't guess any single decision or many decisions, let alone the situations whether the inferior two-card point will win as unfavorite. But we could estimate, according to the actual shoe we're playing at, how many times a given side will be kissed by a math advantaged two-card situation.

Actually per every hand played there's no greater advantage than estimating which side will get the highest two-card point.
At a lesser degree (nearly a 7% inferior edge before vig) comes the asymmetrical situation when betting Banker.
Alas, at least from a strict long term advantage point of view and without other tools, a simple B/P flow "study" cannot help us in decipher what is more likely to happen in the shoe dealt as a percentage of results is strongly affected by short term variance negating math (apparently). 
We need more.

One of the first answers that could come into our mind is that outcomes are not so randomly placed. But we need to possess solid definitions of randomness to state that. And simple B/P succession assessments do not make the job by any means.
The second answer is about the average key card distribution forming more likely results for given lenghts.

In any case, we need a solid strict scientifical proof that our method will get results way different to the expected values, either by disputing a real randomness of the game and/or by confirming a possible "average" key cards distribution theory.

It's a sure undeniable fact that without a strict flat betting strategy getting a long term edge, any baccarat player sooner or later will lose everything put at stake.

Next time I'll post our results about real shoes played at high stakes rooms.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: Garfield on October 15, 2020, 04:31:19 PM
Okay...this is interesting....please proceed AsymBacGuy....
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 18, 2020, 09:25:05 PM
Thanks Garfield!

Say we wish to use a method dictating to bet that the first streak on either side must be a double instead of a 3+ streak (or vice versa).
Such streak of unknown lenght must come out after a BB or PP pattern. Then we bet respectively P or B whether our method privileges doubles or B and P if we like 3+ streaks.
Of course the wisest move will be to bet B after BB and B after PP, but that's not the issue I'm referring to.

Nevertheless, we could insert one more parameter, that is WHEN this BB or PP happens in our shoe. Technically speaking, how many singles had shown before a BB or PP pattern comes out.
Long term data show that the first portions of the shoe are the most "randomly" placed, that is that our random walk will get more unfavourable results than in the subsequent portions of the shoe. Of course unfavourable must be interpreted as "random world".

Random world is defined by actual card clumping getting certain mathematically favorite situations, itlr we can't hope to win with a 3 P initial point vs a 6 B initial point even though in our shoe the fifth card is a 4 or a 5.

Since we have an expected probabilty that a 75-hand shoe will produce some patterns, we should compare our actual results to those expected values.

For example, we all know that the general probability applied to a 80-hand sequence dictates to get 1/4 of singles and 1/4 of streaks, of those streaks half will be doubles and half will be 3+ streaks and so on.
But those values are true only when a perfect independent model is working, more importantly in the real world such values are affected by either the actual asym strenght and by key card clumping.
Since a perfect random world MUST BE insensible to place selection and probability after events tools, we must find the situations to dispute those common statements.

In simple words, whenever certain strong or moderate streak of homogeneous patterns came on the first part of the shoe we're playing at, next outcomes are affected in some way forming (by a linkage of events registration) more likely outcomes in the subsequent parts of the shoe.

Of course B/P events are just the bricks, we need walls to ascertain what's more likely to happen.

Next some shoes we have played.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 19, 2020, 01:34:34 AM
Before posting real shoes, I stress again about the importance that in the real world two card initial points distribution is a lot different than the same distribution coming from a continuously shuffled source.
BP distribution is the most random situation we can rely upon, we need to build a random walk considering what happened in the past at a given pace and in various spots. Sometimes we can't get any hint as our r.w. is producing results too much deviating from the "norm".

And people making a living at numbers will bet about the probability that something is more likely to happen and not about some distant probabilities forming a sort of jackpot.

For example, the probability to lose a certain series of two-step wagers per every shoe dealt in the universe is zero. Not 0.000001 but zero.
Of course we can't afford to lose two, three or more losing situations, hence we need to spot the situations where the W part is more likely than due vs the L part.
Our edge comes from long samples and not by a fake control of short term outcomes, the fuel of amateur players.

Forget real results, itlr the side getting the two card higher initial point is favorite to win by an astounding edge.
But if we consider every single outcome in the normal way we're destined to fail.
By registering outcomes by either a place selection and probability after events points of view we'll get a more precise picture of how much the shoe we're playing at is affected by a strong or light key card distribution dispersed in the various portions of it.

That is we should set up a cutoff point about those whimsical spots that seem to deny the math.
If baccarat would be played without the third card impact and even accepting a reasonable vig over the wins on both sides, well it wouldn't exist.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 26, 2020, 10:30:03 PM
Glad to be back again...

If we consider outcomes as a mere succession of BP hands of given lenghts, we're missing important random walk features as any single result is affected by math probabilities acting within too long terms, giving the actual dispersion a too much weight over the entire model.

Therefore we shouldn't focus our attention about how much a given side will be more probable than the other one, instead about how long certain more likely events are silent.
And those "gaps" or conversely considered positive "runs", must be estimated about a general probability and an actual probability made on each shoe played/observed. And without any doubt a linkage of events is one of the best tool to use.
Even though itsr (in the short run) it may appear as an identical world to fight against.

Imo best option is to build a preordered betting scheme capable to win all the spots we decided to wager for the entire lenght of the shoe by a simple flat betting approach or, best, by a double betting model.
Of course we know that we can't guess neither any single hand nor half of hands dealt, Or, for that matter, the slight majority of hands wagered when the hands' number is too high.

For example, say we want to utilize a betting scheme applied to BP outcomes made toward getting one B or P single at any stage.
Well, itlr some very rare shoes will form all B/P streaks with no single in between, but you can bet everything you get on your name that the common three derived roads (beb, sr and cr) won't get this feature no matter how whimsical is the actual card distribution.

At baccarat when we register what happens after a given result had come out at a given pace, we are challenging the supposedly random world to really work randomly forever and ever.
Technically speaking, we are challenging a supposedly random world to act regardless of place selection and probability after events tools.
Those tools scientifically prove or disprove a real randomness of the results (and/or a complete independent production) thus whenever we consistently find that the model we're studying is going to form dispersion values way more restricted than expected,  we get a good feeling.

Tomorrow I'l post real shoes we have played at different locations.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 26, 2020, 10:30:53 PM
I start with one of the shoes I would classify as unplayable but mates didn't want to wait or change table, mostly for the appealing 9 Banker streak showing at column #6.
Quite likely many members here would find this shoe as a good shoe.

P
BB
PPP
B
P
BBBBBBBBB
PP
BBBB
P
B
PPP
BBB
P
BBB
PP
BBBBBB
P
BB
PPPP
B
PPPPP
BB
P
B
PP
BBBBBB
P
BB

Applying my ub plan #1 on both sides: LWWLWWWWWLLLWLWWLL

at Banker side: LWWWWWLWWLL

at Player side: WLWLWLWLWWLW

ub plan #2: WWW (all bets won at the very first attempt as B doubles were followed by a single each time)

Since before vig any L= -3 and W= +1, we see that no ub #1 derived road provided a profit by flat betting.
Things went better by betting for W clusters at ub #1  Banker side and by isolating L at ub #1 Player side.
Nevertheless in the entire shoe the number of Ws is too low than Ls, thus imo there's no point to guess bets into a "losing" shoe.
Needless to say that the longest Banker streaks (especially the 9-streak, of course) have shown many unfavorite initial points ending up as winners.

Moreover all other r.w.'s I'm used to playing finished the shoe as losers (except the aforementioned ub #2).

This shoe, at least by the way I'm considering things, is relatively rare among the real shoes world.

Once we have known this shoe texture (lol), probably the best course of action to get all winnings would be to adopt a simple two times betting toward a Banker streak of any lenght forming a WWWWWWWWWW sequence (with 6 winning bets on the first 1-unit attempt and 4 wins on the second 2-unit one).
Practically speaking that the shoe never produced two or more consecutive Banker singles.
And this scenario happens with a too low frequency to be exploitable (at least in terms of  8-10/14 consecutive wins.)

Next I'll present a shoe producing all wins.

as.
Modify message
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 26, 2020, 11:32:11 PM
Here's a couple of shoes producing all wins.

B
PPPPP
BBB
PP
BBB
P
BBBBB
PPP
BBB
P
B
PPPP
B
P
B
P
BBB
PPP
BBBBBB
P
BBB
P
BBBB
PPP
B
P
BB
P
BB
P
BBBBB
P

Again, ub#1 both sides: WLWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWLWWL

ub#1 on Banker side: WWWWWWWWWWWLWL

ub#1 on Player side: WWWWWWWWWW

ub#2: LW

Easy shoe, isn't it?
Here we can bet blindly and odds are that we can't lose, mainly for the relative absence of doubles.
The actual r.w. played got eight straight wins.

The second shoe is less polarized and more intriguing yet forming all wins (again eight wins):

P
B
PP
BBBB
PP
BB
P
B
PP
B
P
B
PPP
BBB
P
BB
PPP
BBB
PPPPPPP
B
P
BB
P
BB
P
B
P
BBBBBB
P
BB
P
BB
P
BB
PPPPP
B

ub#1 both sides: LWWWWWLWWLLWLWWWWWLWLWWWWL  (-6 units before tax)

ub#1 Banker side: LWWLLLWWLL  (-14 units before tax)

ub#1 Player side: WWWWLWWWWWWWWWWW  (+12 units before tax)

ub#2: WWLWLL

Now differently than the previous shoe we don't have univocal winning lines on all "roads", actually the overall plan will provide a cumulative loss. And trying to only bet the positive Player side sequence is worthless itlr (imo).
This is the classical example where place selection and probability after events tools enlarge our expectation to win many hands consecutively.

To clarify a bit, I've inserted my ub plans just to show that in any case there's a kind of relationship between those roads and the actual r.w. utilized.

In the next post I'll show which bets I really wagered, even on the first "bad" (unplayable) shoe that provided a fictional profit but just by coincidence, meaning that itlr betting on a bad shoe (good shuffling)  can only produce a loss.

And of course there are all those 'more likely' shoes that constitute the most likely scenario we have to face (or not).

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on November 01, 2020, 11:24:41 PM
We can beat this game itlr if we have the strict scientifical proof made by rigid measurements that this thing is possible.
We can't rely upon "elastic" methods or, even worse, about raising the bets because we had lost a given amount of bets.
If any fkng method can't win by flat betting, well it only means we're playing an EV- game.

If a given MM approach would be able to beat this game, it means that along the way some bets are more likely than others, therefore why not to wait to cross this situation before wagering?

In a word, every silly bet we want to place on the felt MUST get a positive expectancy, surely susceptible to variance, but capable to get a positive long term ROI. Otherwise we're doomed to failure.

Technically speaking it means that every single Banker bet must get at least a long term 51.3% winning probability and every single Player bet at least a long term 50.1% winning probability.
It's not that difficult to assess those values after having tested your shoes.

Back to the main issue.

Baccarat probabilities are not comparable to either Brownian motion or gas kinetic probabilities, as the former involve a kind of dependent probability, say it's a linkage events' probability.

Easy task to find "more likely events" as B streaks vs B singles or P singles vs P streaks, unfortunately those patterns are way lesser distributed than what a favourable player's  payment dictates.

Therefore in some way the "actual" must not correspond to the "expected", meaning that not every single A/B distribution will follow the same expected lines.
Practically speaking, per every shoe dealt we need to concentrate the results either in order to lower the variance and to get a fully value of place selection and probability after events tools.

Place selection is the only sure valuable tool to know we're facing a real random world.
Thus and according to this rule, no matter which spots we decide to wager or classify, we ought to think that the BP probabilities will be always 0.5068 and 49.32 on any spot bet.
A total bighornshit.
As long as key cards were depleted from the shoe and according to the past features, only a perfect real random shuffle won't get hints to know where next key cards are distributed for long.

Simply put, a shoe can't get a valuable room to get the "place selection" validity confirming a total perfect randomness of the outcomes.
Thus we know to fight a partial unrandomness of the distribution and fortunately long term data show that some steps are "more likely" than others after the vig.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on November 05, 2020, 11:32:03 PM
Quoting Ben Mezrich on his "Busting Vega$" book: "Sometimes you had to close your eyes, forget the appearances, and just trust the numbers".

I'd meekly suggest to change the word "sometimes" with an "always" word.

Even though at baccarat numbers are not so precisely depicted than at bj, we know that after a given number appeared within certain terms, the future probability will be affected in some way.
As the probability to get the "more expected" calculated by our tools will be proportionally lowered or raised.
Say that while playing bj the low/high cards ratio will be negative or neutral for the player after half of the deck was dealt, what's the probability to get a profitable positive count on the remaining portion of the shoe?

At baccarat we have some choices to know that per every shoe dealt, negative cannot be always followed by a proportional amount of positive, but that in some situations positive can last for the entire shoe.
Thus positive at the start could build a whole positive situation and negative can only hope to recoup some losses along the way but at a proportional lower degree then what the former event had done in the past. And vice versa but we shouldn't forget that every bet we'll place will be math unfavorite.

Casinos make their huge profits hoping that either players won't properly exploit all winning shoes and at the same time knowing that players experiencing harsh losing situations won't get immediate positive situations at the same shoe played.
The math advantage doens't hurt casinos for sure, but at HS rooms whenever a shoe is dealt casinos like to front players that want to guess hands no matter what.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: Garfield on November 06, 2020, 01:54:10 PM
Sorry to ask Asym...

1. What's #ub ?

Thx
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: RickK on November 07, 2020, 12:33:45 PM
Garfield...thinking that ub would be his unbeatable  plans., but not sure that those are part of his ultimate plan. Actually I was kind of understanding his writings, as I think you were, in several posts back, but these recent posts have lost me again.
Asym...it "seems" like you explain what needs to happen to beat the game, but not how to do it. Guessing this is done for a reason, but it's pretty frustrating.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: RickK on November 07, 2020, 12:52:35 PM
as....you mention in another thread that some of your best baccarat ideas came from roulette aficionados. Any chance you could share some of those strategies or possibly compare the two games, if you think that would maybe help us understand your baccarat methodology ? Just looking for a way to help us understand your writings a little (maybe more than a little) better.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on November 07, 2020, 10:12:55 PM
Quote from: RickK on November 07, 2020, 12:52:35 PM
as....you mention in another thread that some of your best baccarat ideas came from roulette aficionados. Any chance you could share some of those strategies or possibly compare the two games, if you think that would maybe help us understand your baccarat methodology ? Just looking for a way to help us understand your writings a little (maybe more than a little) better.

Hi Rickk! Yep thanks to answering Garfield question, ub=my plans #1 (splitted in three categories) and #2.

Some roulette researchers seem to have an edge over most pure baccarat scholars, they want to fight independent successions trying to spot any possible randomness defect.
Of course this thing is very difficult, say almost impossible both theorically and practically. Nonetheless some ideas are quite interesting and sometimes may be applied even to baccarat productions, now not being independently formed. 

Personally I think the best simplest and only way to attack modern wheels is by approaching certain IB automated roulettes where the software production seem to be decently predictable, especially if we can place the bets after having assessed the rotor velocity of each spin.
Cons are that the HE at those roulettes is too high (2.7%/5.26%) to overcome and, more importantly, that you can wager relatively small amounts of money. Then there are further considerations I do not want to discuss here.

The common idea, imo, is that both roulette and baccarat productions are affected by a fair transitory asymmetricity, lasting for given periods of time. But at baccarat we can find way better conditions to state and prove that the asymmetricity belongs to a more limited (hence predictable) world than expected for many reasons.

Finiteness of the shoe and key cards distribution with all shuffling implications make a huge and decisive role on that, again two simple examples:

- at baccarat symmetrical streaks are shorter than at roulette, meaning that whenever the third card rule doesn't intervene on the hand's outcome, we'll expect a way lesser amount of long streaks than at other 50/50 independent sources.
For example, at baccarat we need a larger amount of hands dealt to cross a pure symmetrical 7-hand streak that at roulette shows up with a 2/128 odds proposition (zero/s ignored).

- at baccarat probabilities are calculated only by considering math combinations working into a perfect random distribution.
A statement surely true in the long run by mixing everything regardless and naturally taking for grant all perfet random productions coming up from a software.

Really? No way.
Let's take the math asymmetrical probability favoring Banker, it's 8.6%.
And now take the single zero roulette probability to get a series of three given numbers showing up after a 75-80 spins run. It's 8.1%, so almost correspondent.
Are those "almost same probability" dispersion values equally placed?
They should, but they don't.

Good news.

Now we know that a given percentage of hands math favoring Banker will feature lower dispersion values than what any other pure independent game will do.
Even though we'd want to admit that every baccarat production we have to face is perfect randomly formed.

Ok, there's always the whimsical card fall favoring one side or the other one at the start (two initial cards).
Good, at which point the most likely situation can come out consecutively? And what if we want to consider results at different paces and quantities? And is hands quality an important factor before betting?

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on November 10, 2020, 12:59:10 AM
The idea I've implemented in my strategies is pretty simple in theory and quite difficult to put into practice without having mastered some notions about probability studies made in the past.

1.

At baccarat and per every shoe dealt, streaks are the direct reflex of key cards concentration or dilution that tend to produce more likely outcomes.
The key cards concentration/dilution ratio is a finite value, once a key card is either burnt or alive it must affect the probability to get more likely outcomes on either side, for now we do not know which side.

2.

Games of binomial chances work according to a probability world that no matter how dissected will form runs of certain lenght. (For now we neglect that one side is more likely than the other one).
Runs are calculated by the number of shifts from A to B.
A perfect random 50/50 game will produce the same number of runs expected mathematically.
Even though our beloved game is affected by a slight probability's asymmetricity, we can consider as a "affordable error" an actual ROI difference of 0.18% existing by the B or P wagering. 

Example: a BBBPBPPBPBBBPBPPPBB succession is formed by 11 runs, that is 11 B/P shifts.

3.

Itlr actual results surely adapt to math expected values as they mix it up.
Think about black jack. Without a spread betting procedure utilized when a positive card counting arises (I'm not talking about some sophisticated key card spotting techinques), it's impossible to beat the HE.
Even considering the best favourable deck penetrations, the best card counter in the world cannot spot in total more than 13-14% profitable decks.

4.

At bj, key cards are one-sided exploitable, meaning that some cards are favoring players and others favor the house. And of course we must bet just one side per every hand.

At baccarat we can't get a math advantage but we can serenely "wonging" at the utmost degree.
That is we can choose when and how much money we want to risk, letting the house to think that no matter how are selected our bets our EV will be always negative.

5.

Every shoe dealt in the universe must get a more or less key cards concentration or dilution along the way.
Say we want to classify as key cards all 7s, 8s and 9s. It's a 96/416 percentage, that is a 23% dynamic probabiity.
Zero value cards add up to a 30.76% dynamic probability, but there are no other card combinations prompting more likely events for long.
 
Greater is key cards concentration within small portions of the shoe, better will be the probability to get shifting outcomes (runs). Meaning that whenever many key cards are concentrated within strict terms, higher will be the probability to get shorter univocal streaks, hence a larger amount of runs.

For the same reasons, a deck's portion  particularly poor of key cards will form longer streaks, say a more undetectable world.

6.

The final strategy should be shaped about the probability to get, per every shoe dealt, a key card distribution strongly or moderate concentrated into some portions of it. Thus favoring a greater amount of runs of certain lenght.
And do not forget that at any EV- game,  player's edge comes very diluted and not constantly placed. The comparison with bj is straightforwardon on that.

7.

No matter how we want to register outcomes, itlr there's a strict relationship about key cards falling and actual results, that is about the number of runs acting per every shoe dealt.

After all in order to win itlr we have to falsify the hypothesis that every single result is randomly placed and that our actual results are not following dispersion values dictated by mathematics.

Simply put, that the average key cards distribution won't get those dispersion values belonging to an unbeatable bell curve.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on November 15, 2020, 11:15:42 PM
For a moment let's forget all "complicated" issues regarding a profitable bet selection so focusing more about a MM.

Consider this MM plan (already invented, btw).

We split our play into endless portions of 5 resolved hands wagered by flat betting, stopping the action whenever we have reached out a +1 profit (before tax); if we didn't manage to get a profit after those five hands bet (consecutively or not) we take the loss in units then calculating the future bet working on 5 next hands by increasing the loss by one unit up to the point where we'll cover all previous losses and getting a +1 profit (minus vig).

This plan is unbeatable mathematically as the probability to win one unit per every 5-hand betting cluster is 68.75%.
Naturally the practice collides with the theory as without a proper BS plan, we need a huge bankroll to cover all the possible negative fluctuations, sooner or later surpassing the table limits.

Each 5-hand betting cluster will get 32 possible WL combinations, all specular in term of WL numbers, but since we have chosen to stop the betting after one unit profit, now we have some  combinations starting with a L working for us (namely LLWWW, LWLWW, LWWLL, LWWWL, LWWWW and LWWLW).

Therefore the probability to win one unit profit (better sayed a W>L one-step situation) per each 5-hand cluster is 22/32, that is a 68.75% winning probability.

Example.

After 5-hands bet by flat betting, the overall total would be positive right at the start 50% of the times (16 patterns start with a W) and six times over 16 whenever a L starts the pattern (the aforementioned WL patterns).
Of course the general probability to win or lose a given amount of hands is symmetrical, anyway the fact we're looking for just one unit profit tends to unbalance the ratio in some way. At the risk of the bet increase.

I've chosen to display the 5-hand clusters as I know that many bac players won't like to flat bet clusters of 7-hands, 9-hands or greater amount of odd hands.
Actually more hands we're considering for each cluster and better and more precise will be the probability to know we're working in the "right" field. Providing a proper BS is utilized.
And of course the bet increase is the decisive tool to understand whether we're randomly betting or getting the best of it by a possible edge either coming out from a bad shuffling or by bac features.

Back to the numbers.

According to this plan, the worst scenarios we are forced to face is whenever after each 5 hands bet, our total result will be -5 or -3.
That is in order to get the 68.75% edge, we must increase the future bet to 6 units or 4 units.
Naturally odds this scenario will take place are 6:32 (18.75%).

The overall remaining losing part of every 5-hand sample accounts for the other 12.5% percentage prompting just one losing hand.
Meaning that whenever we're losing, odds we'll get more than one losing hand per every 5-hands wagering are exactly 2:1.

Most experienced bac players aren't going to lose 10 hand in a row, meaning that this MM plan won't enlarge the bets by 6:1 and then 31:1 ratio standard.

That's the key point of a profitable betting.
I do not know long term winning players betting more than the double of their standard bet.
Thus restricting the bac probabilities into a 1-2 step category.

They are right, as a similar 50/50 game must be solved right at the start. Either something follows or it doesn't.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on November 17, 2020, 12:49:32 AM
Back to the real shoes issue.

Bellagio, HS room. $1000-$20.000 table.

The shoe went as:

B
PP
BB
PPPPP
B
PP
BB
PPPP
BB
PP
BB
PP
B
PP
B
P
BBBB
PPPP
BBBB
P
BB
P
B
P
B
PPPP
B
P
BB
PP
BBBBBB
PPP
BB

There were four players seated at this table and at the end everyone was hugely winning, despite of several bets made on opposite sides.

Big road provided long univocal patterns (think about consecutive streaks) anyway one player got almost all winnings by following derived roads.
Another player won almost every hand on the BBBBPPPPBBBB pattern.

I was quite surprised that a player wagered $10.000 (his average bet being $5000) on Banker side after the 4 Player streak (in bold) happened.
A possible explanation comes from a derived roads study.
For the record he turned up a 9 over a drawing P hand.

Ub plans:

#1 both sides: +--+-+++-++++-++-+-

#1 B side: ++++++-+-+++-

#1 P side: -++++++--

ub #2: +--+++

actual random walk: +++++++++++++--+++++

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on November 17, 2020, 01:03:03 AM
Another shoe, now from MGM HS room.

B
PP
B
PP
B
PP
B
PPP
BB
B
P
BB
PPPP
BBB
P
BB
B
P
B
P
BBB
PP
BBB
P
BBB
PP
B
P
B
PPPPPP
BB
PPPP
BBB
PP
BB
P
PP
B
P

ub #1 plan both sides: +++++-++--+++--+-++--+++

ub #1 plan B side: ++--+-++++--

ub #1 plan P side: +++++--+++-+

ub #2 plan: +++++

actual random walk: ++---+++--++

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on November 17, 2020, 01:10:50 AM
Bellagio, HS room. $100-$20.000

P
B
P
B
BBBB
PPPP
BB
PP
BB
P
BB
P
BBBBB
P
B
P
BB
PPPPPPPP
B
P
B
PPPPPPPPP
BBBBB
PPPPPP
BB
B
P
B
PP
BBB

ub plan #1 both sides: +-++-+++-+++++-+++-

ub plan #1 B side: -+--++--+-

ub plan #1 P side: -+++-++++-

ub plan #2: --+++

actual random walk: ++++++----+++++

as.



Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on November 17, 2020, 01:19:44 AM
Another MGM HS room shoe:

P
B
P
BBB
P
BBB
PP
B
P
BB
P
B
PP
B
P
BB
PP
BB
PP
BB
PP
BBBB
PP
BB
PPPP
B
P
BBBBB
PPPPP
B
PPP
BB
P
B
P
BB
PPPP
BBB

ub plan #1 both sides: ++-++++++++++++++-+++++-+++-

ub plan #1 B side: ++-+++++---++-

ub plan #1 P side: ++++++++-+++++

ub plan #2: +--++++

actual random walk: ++++++--++++++++++

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on November 17, 2020, 01:29:32 AM
Gold Coast casino.

BBB
PPP
B
PP
BB
PP
BBBB
P
BBBBBB
PPP
B
PP
BBB
PP
B
P
BBBB
PP
BBB
PP
BB
P
B
PP
BBBB
P
BB
PP
B
P
B
PPP
B
P
B
P
B

ub plan #1 both sides: -++-+++--+--++--++++-+++++

ub plan #1 B side: --++++---++++

ub plan #1 P side: --+++++++-++

ub plan #2: +++

actual random walk: +++++++--++++++--

as. 



Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on November 17, 2020, 01:37:15 AM
Palms casino, $25-$5000.

PPPP
B
P
BBBBBBB
P
BB
P
BBBB
P
B
PPPP
B
P
BBB
P
BBB
PP
B
PP
B
PPP
B
PPPP
BBBB
PPPPPPP
BB
PP
B
P
BBBBBBBB
PPPPP

ub plan #1 both sides: +++-+-+++++++-++-++++-+-+

ub plan #1 B side: -+++++++--

ub plan #1 P side: ++++++-+-+

ub plan #2: ++

actual random walk: --++++++++++--

as.

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on November 23, 2020, 12:11:37 AM
The plans applied to the above shoes show that in the long run the final total of bets (units) won or lost will be almost always approaching the zero value, burdened by the vig.
We can't disrupt the math action, we can only take advantage of statistical features happening or not at different degrees shoe after shoe.

Of course we do not know when and how long things might come in our favor, yet some card distributions are more likely than others, meaning that certain patterns are more likely than others.
In other words, patterns may be so hugely card endorsed that we could win 8 or more bets for the entire lenght of the shoe without having a single loss and by a probability way greater than math expected.

Notice that getting an aim to win 8-12 bets in a row without a single loss needs to reduce the actual results by a 1:10 ratio. In reality less than that as many hands are formed by "neutral" ties.

Considering for simplicity BP outcomes as mere 50/50 propositions, math will teach us that we'll win 8 bets in a row by a 1/64 probability (1.56%).
If a method applied to a large sample data provides ratios higher than that we are in very good shape. (Of course the same reasoning applies to lower classes of WL probability values).

From a strict probability point of view that means that baccarat must be solved by disproving a perfect random shoe formation acting here and there with all the related falsifications of the hypothesis.

Certain shoes are more well shuffled than others, anyway it's not how deep or how light shoes are shuffled (unless consecutively dealt), what it counts is about how key cards are more concentrated or diluted along a given shoe. Better sayed, the portions where such features will more likely take place.

Biased shoe.

In the 80s some black jack scholars raised the issue that not everytime a positive count will get the player a math edge over the house, thus enlarging a possible "card clumping" problem.
Simply put, not everytime a shoe supposedly rich of high cards will get the player an edge as those favourable high cards might remain silent in the unplayable portion of the shoe.
Recent studies tried to disprove scientifically this suspicion, nonetheless and knowing the actual bj rules adopted by casinos, the original theory seems to take a more sensible impact.

At baccarat this "clumping card" theory is well more interesting for several reasons and by different points of views:

- besides Montecarlo casino where more than two decks are discarded from the play (8-deck shoes), almost every live casino in the world will deal the shoe for the most entirety of it.
Actually whenever the first card is not a picture or zero value card, most part of the shoe is dealt at different degrees by cutting off very few cards.

- at baccarat we can bet any side we wish at any moment we wish and by any amount we wish.

- at baccarat previous patterns belonging to certain random walks are decisive to know whether the future outcomes will get a more or less key card dilution/concentration as some numbers must follow finite sequences having a given probability to show up.

- at baccarat the key card concentration/dilution problem could be assessed by the times (gaps) some favorite precise two-card points will get a real win or a loss, meaning that favorite two-card points distribution must be registered up to given cutoff points. After those cutoff points are surpassed, we ought to consider that cards are shuffled to get too whimsical results to be properly exploited.

Every baccarat shoe dealt is an endless proposition of two-step math oriented results getting certain gaps of appearance.
First step involves the higher two-card point, this is the main step.
Say the third card impact will be just an accident.

If the third card won't intervene, the probability to get a higher point will be symmetrical, but a finite card distribution will put some limits on it. Depending about how much cards were properly shuffled.
I mean that without the third card intervention and baccarat rules, only an idi.o.t couldn't find a way to beat the game.

Especially if we want to disprove a perfect "so called" ndependent random source of outcomes.

as.   
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on November 23, 2020, 11:32:32 PM
At baccarat we have endless options to consider binomial propositions, Big Road is by far the most commonly used for wagering, then there are the four derived roads (BP, BEB, SR and CR).

No matter how deep we want to dissect outcomes, math experts teach us that after considering the slight asymmetricity, A=B forever and ever.

In reality A=B with all related statistical implications if the propositions are randomly placed at any shoe dealt.
More precisely, if we bet A at any given stage of the shoe, itlr A or B must follow the old 0.5068/0.4932 ratio. An unbeatable ratio, btw.

This kind of thought is failed by several reasons.

- we can't mix results coming from different shoes as the random postulate cannot be working at any shoe dealt. Actually randomness doesn't work for most shoes dealt. 

- at baccarat there's no one single hand getting the 0.5068/0.4932 probability to appear (ties considered neutral).

- pc simulated shoes differ from real live shoes.

- players must rely upon successions of short term situations, the long run apply to very large long term data that easily confuse unrandomness with pseudo randomness, that last one more likely approaching the "expected" values.

- at baccarat place selection feature totally denies the perfect randomness of the outcomes.

- at baccarat probability after events feature totally denies the perfect randomness of the outcomes.

- the number and lenght of "runs" (a run is the number of the shifting attitude of changing the winning side) is quite different than what 50/50 or a 0.5068/0.4932 ratios dictate, thus proving the unrandomness of the outcomes.

Actually I can't swear that the partial and unconstant unrandomness will play the decisive role on that, maybe baccarat is vulnerable by its own characteristics, but I'd tend to be very cautious to state this last assumption.

Next time I'll post some ideas about how to build up a winning random walk.

as.   
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on November 29, 2020, 10:38:59 PM
Although baccarat provides innumerable card situations, math advantaged spots falling here and there are surely going to win itlr (now "itlr" is way more widely intended as commonly considered).
By far the largest impact cards will make over the actual results are coming from 7s, 8s and 9s.

There are many card combinations forming final winning hands not involving those cards (or working partially), nevertheless whenever we are going to peak at our cards we better aim to get one of those cards, instead of hoping that our 4 will be followed by another 4 or a 5. 
This card class constitutes 23% of total cards dealt and it's more or less concentrated along the shoe with a "memory" as key cards are burnt from the play.

Differently to black jack where the final count of "good" or "bad" cards must be zero (penetration considered), meaning that only few portions of the shoe might be favourable for the player ('good card' concentration after a strong 'good card' dilution), at baccarat there are no good or bad cards for the player, just probabilities to get key cards concentrated or diluted along various portions of the shoe.
Naturally at baccarat we have the advantage to bet any side we wish anytime we want and the disadvantage to not know which side will be kissed by such a possible key cards impact.

Notice that I haven't mentioned "how much we want" as a long term winning plan must win by flat betting.

Anyway if we are here is because we are trying to prove that a key card concentration/dilution approximation acting along any shoe will play a huge role over our winning probability as many times some actual patterns will be more detectable than others.

It's natural to think that conditions not fitting a perfect random world are more likely to produce winning situations (when properly considered), as "perfect" key cards distributions can easily produce too many undetectable patterns.
If the key card distribution would be always close to the expected 23% ratio, well no betting plan could get the best of it.
Fortunately no one single live shoe dealt in the universe will get such constant ratio.

It's interesting to say that some very unlikely BP patterns will get no hint to be attacked, but certain derived AB situation will at some point.

Obviously we'd prefer to place bets when a derived AB situation MUST come out clustered, thus lowering the probability to catch a losing spot.

Math speaking experts say that every bet will make is EV- no matter what.
That's our fortune.

Tomorrow more AB hints. 

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on November 30, 2020, 11:58:01 PM
Best bac players in the world play a A/B game.
More specifically they play baccarat by taking advantage of runs and gaps.
They do not follow anything, they don't like Banker as being more favorite to win.
They bet very few hands.
And, of course, they bet rarely but wagering huge amounts.

Probability world is made upon runs and gaps, I mean the number of BP shifts. Ouch, AB shifts.
Everything depends about how we want to consider opposite results.

Consider this 18-hand shoe portion:

B
PPPP
BB
PPP
B
PPPPP
BB

7 runs, 2 singles, 1 double, 3 3+s  singles/streaks ratio 2:5

Big eye boy road:

A
BB
A
B
A
B
AAA
BBB
A
B

10 runs, 7 singles, 1 double, 2 3+s  singles/streaks ratio 6:3

Small road:

AA
BB
AA
BB
A
B
AA

7 runs, 2 singles, 4 doubles, zero 3+s. singles/streaks ratio 2:5
Cockroach road:

A
B
AA
B
A
BB
A
B

8 runs, 5 singles, 2 doubles, zero 3+s. singles/streaks ratio 5.2


In summary the overall singles/streaks ratio is 15:15

The overall doubles/3+s ratio is 11:5


Now this second 18-hand shoe portion:

B
P
BB
P
B
P
B
P
BBB
P
BBBBB

11 runs, 8 singles, 1 double and 2 3+s.  singles/streaks ratio 8:3

Big eye boy road:

A
BBB
AAAA
B
A
BBB
AAA

7 runs,  3 singles, zero doubles, 4 3+s.  singles/streaks ratio 3:4

Small Road

BB
A
B
AAA
B
A
B
AAA
B
A

10 runs, 6 singles, 1 double, 2 3+s. singles/streaks ratio 6:3

Cockroach road

AA
B
AA
B
A
B
A
B
AAA

9 runs, 6 singles, 2 doubles and 1 3+s. singles/streaks ratio 6:3

Overall the singles/streaks ratio is 23:13.

The doubles/3+s ratio is 16:12

Both shoes portions came from a moderate/strong key card concentration, even though they formed quite different BP results.

Of course I've posted the most common derived roads any bac player is familiar of and the fact that some AB patterns are cumulatively superior than counterparts was just a coincidence.
Moreover any B or P result could form opposite patterns on different roads (a single from one part and a streak from another one, etc).

We can put in action more random walks, for example OBL, A=same, B=opposite:

first shoe

A
BB
AAAA
B
A
B
A
BBB
AA

second shoe

B
AA
BBBBB
A
B
A
B
A
BBB

As long as long streaks are not coming in short intervals and as long as "symmetrical patterns" are not coming out consecutively any betting plan has its merit. And odds are that they do not itlr.
Btw, those are the precise situations recreational players are looking for. And I do not know a single recreational player being ahead of the game.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 06, 2020, 11:58:17 PM
What would you think after facing this shoe fragment?

BBBB
PPPPPP
BBB
PPPP
BBB
PPPPP
BBBBBBB

There's only a sensible answer: Here probabilities are that key cards were hugely concentrated alternatively on either side.
This sequence is very very unlikely to happen and, of course, is one of the rare situations recreational players like to cross: betting the last outcome, that's it.

Now let's consider the three derived roads:

Big eye boy:

AAA
B
A
B
AA
B
AA
BB
AA
B
AA
B
A
B
AAAA
B
A

Small road:

AA
B
AAA
B
AAAAAA
BB
AA
B
AAA

Cockroach road:

AAAAAA
B
AA
B
A
B
AAA
B
AA

Things seem to change a lot as the cumulative singles/streaks ratio appearing on d.r's  is very different than the big road original sequence.
Nonetheless, from a strict mathematical point of view, such sequence is among the most likely ones whenever key cards are hugely concentrated on a given shoe portion.

Just to complete the picture about the most simple strategy options anybody is aware of, I'll add the OBL random walk:

AA
BB
AAAA
BB
A
BB
AA
BB
A
BB
AAA
BB
AAAAA

Again, we can see huge differences between this OBL r.w. and the original big road sequence.

In some way we could think that the above big road sequence is well predictable by either recreational players and by pro players. Of course by taking advantage of different features (BP steps considered by different lenghts).

And we may conclude that shoe portions particularly rich of key cards are more detectable than the common supposedly random world we're entitled to face.

Naturally when we have seen that key cards are more concentrated on some portions, odds are that we'll expect to get more dispersed key card falling on subsequent parts of the shoe, meaning we'll get a more volatile (then undetectable) world.
Mathematically speaking, the probability to detect a two-card higher point falling on either side will be lower whenever the deck is poor of key cards.
And we must know that to get a long winning plan we'll have to get a larger amount of two-card higher initial points than expected as this is the only long term tool to realize we're really getting an edge over the house.

I'd suggest to consider a baccarat shoe in the same way bj players think about a playable or unplayable shoe.
At baccarat we do not get unidirectional player's card distributions, just probabilities to get A or B and we know that A or B must considered in terms of gaps.
This AB feature is in direct relationship of the key cards concentration/dilution ratio acting at different degrees along any shoe.
Differently than bj, we are absolutely certain that some betting lines will get all winnings per every shoe dealt at a degree well higher than what expected values dictate.

Btw, there's no fkng way in the universe to beat any EV- game by strategies capable to be effective other than by adopting a strict flat betting method.
People claiming otherwise are just pure fkng clowns.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on December 07, 2020, 11:24:07 AM
After that first strong section I would look for 1s and 2s and then 1s and 3s being careful not to get sucked in on the 2s, the doubles.  Maybe look for a section, long section of chops and 1s and 3s and then a long and strong Player streak out of nowhere. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 13, 2020, 09:15:31 PM
Al, your answer could be a reasonable one, anyway long term data suggest that deck portions particularly poor of key cards seem to endorse the volatility of the outcomes as more cards are employed in the construction of a hand higher will be the probability to fall into an "undetectable" world.
A partial proof comes from the fact that ties are well more likely whenever six cards are employed to form a hand.
And of course the probability that a hand will be resolved by six cards will be higher when the deck is poor of key cards.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 13, 2020, 11:12:13 PM
Since at baccarat we can't use mathematics directly (besides side bets card counting ), we must use statistics to extract hidden informations from large datasets.

Thus we are not interested to estimate what could happen most by considering common BP values, instead we should focus our attention on multiple different random walks that tell us what's really more probable after a given outcome or series of outcomes had come out.
A/B spots I mean.

Simply put, we should consider a baccarat shoe in the same way bj counters approach the decks.
At bac we can't get the luxury to know that high cards and aces favor the players and low cards favor the dealer, but here (along with many other advantages) we have the advantage to estimate the probability to get several states of key card concentration/dilution acting at various degrees by some finite values.
This feature fully reflects the patterns formation, hence we are not compelled to track key cards as patterns formation will make the job we're looking for.

Summarizing, to be deadly sure we'll get the right side of the proposition (EV+ play) itlr we must get at least a 51.3% winning percentage on our Banker bets and at least a 50.1% winning percentage on our Player bets.
Every bac player knows that such values tend to be quickly disregarded. Unless a proper bet selection is working.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 15, 2020, 12:11:35 AM
Playing with an edge means that we want to falsify the theory that no matter how and when we decide to bet the dispersion values are following all the time the numbers derived from common probability.

To do that we've set up multiple betting lines within the "coin flip" A/B scheme but well knowing that the results cannot come from an independent source, moreover affected by the rules asymmetricity.
Naturally the general B/P probability varies a lot depending upon the sections of the shoe where key cards are more or less concentrated.
It's literally impossible that every single hand will follow the 50.68/49.32 probability as there are no card distributions eliciting such exact probability.

Taken from a different point of view, we could even object about the perfect random nature of the outcomes as the place selection and probability after events tools will get different values than expected, thus disproving the perfect randomness.

We could assume that along any shoe the real probability will act at various steps depending upon the key cards distribution. And not by privileging one side, just certain patterns formation.

Efforts made in the past by eminent researchers were oriented to find spots where one side would have been more probable than the other one adopting a "black jack style" approach. Fruitless efforts we know.

In reality baccarat must be solved statistically, that is by taking advantage of the many intricate issues only very few players know.
It can be done, believe me.

In the endless process of studying deeply this game I have to thank:

- Richard Von Mises works, an eminent mathematician who publicized, imho, the strongest definition of randomness.

- Marian Smoluchowski works, a physics professor.

- Semyon Dukach inspiring ideas, one of the most famous member of the black jack MIT team that destroyed Vegas and many other casinos.

- Akio Kashiwagi, probably the best baccarat player in the world of all times.

- Glen "Alrelax", the only one person in the world besides my team colleagues I would risk my money with.

As long as outcomes are not coming out from either a perfect independent and/or a perfect random source, we know we'll get an edge.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 19, 2020, 11:34:45 PM
Winning just one unit per each shoe played

One unit win and not per every shoe dealt...it might sound as a ridiculous goal no bac player would be interested to get.
However the more we are deviating from this basic achievement, higher and faster will be the probability to lose our money.

We can't hope to win an inferior amount than one unit, that is being ahead of just one hand (before vig).
But we've seen that simple progressions may find profits on precise LW points, so transferring the problem about the probability that, besides immediate wins, after a single losing spot the next hand should more likely get a win instead of another loss.
 
The fact that we're restricting the range of one unit wins within single shoes played relies about the supposedly (ascertained) probability that the statistical irregular strenght coming up on our favor collides with the sure mathematical steady force acting all the times.
Meaning that for practical reasons, on average the statistical strenght takes its greatest value on very few spots.

Of course betting a lot of spots with a huge betting spread entices the idea we're there to gamble, in the meanwhile collecting valuable comps.
But I assure you that most bac pros I know do not give a fk about comps, thus exclusively betting the spots they'd thought to be profitable.

We know that to be really profitable itlr Banker bets must get at least a 51.3% probability to get us an edge, Player's bets need a probability equal or higher than 50.1%.
Combine those probabilities in any B/P betting range you wish, at the end you must get a proper percentage capable to invert the HE. Otherwise you're just fooling yourselves and making casinos' fortune.

Interestingly, long term random walks data show that in given spots it's way easier to find the spots where Player side will be neutral or favorite to win than to cross the opposite situation, even though general rules make Banker more favorite to win regardless.

It's like assigning certain given variable cutoff values to the probability that Banker will be more likely than Player, naturally taking into account the general 8.6% asym probability distribution and the actual BP distribution prompting different random walks.

I can't see any answer other than the actual key card distribution, knowing that when given  portions of the shoe show a strong or moderate key card balancement, outcomes will be more fkng affected by a huge "undetectable" volatility.
Sometimes the key card balancement will be so hugely represented that no valuable betting spots could arise.

Odds are that whenever key cards are strongly balanced on the initial/intermediate parts of the shoe, subsequent portions of it will be less affected by a kind of key card concentration factor that tend to come in our favor.

From casinos part are there ways to forcefully balance the key card distribution along any shoe dealt?
Who cares, we got means to take notice of that and of course I'm not talking about this here.

Next post will be about the decisive importance to discard many outcomes we're not interested to insert in our registration.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 20, 2020, 11:47:26 PM
Our datasets show that best edge comes from a random walks registration/actual BP results ratio  set up at 0.56.
That is on average our random walks must register a slight superior amount than half of the actual BP decisions coming out.
A quite interesting percentage I don't want to discuss here, anyway now we know that the supposedly random world and/or the very slight dependent world we are compelled to face is proven to be more restricted than we think, just by getting rid of nearly half of the unnecessary BP outcomes.

Our new derived collective extracted from nearly 56% of the total BP resolved hands should follow the common probability laws but it happens it's not the case.
Some spots are more likely than others, more importantly dispersion values are well more restricted than expected, meaning that the silliest progression ever invented will get the best of it by any means.

If our aim is to get just one large (maximum limit) unit profit per every new collective formed, our edge will be so huge that we will bored to play baccarat anymore by a lack of suspence.
   
In our experiments, we've tried to raise (or reduce) the already substantial edge by discarding a larger (smaller) amount of hands but with no avail.
It's like that the 0.56% cutting hand percentage is the best number to look for.

Next I'll post real betting situations.

Sadly I fear it's more likely to beat baccarat than to destroy this fkng virus.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 21, 2020, 12:29:24 AM
Btw, special thanks and Merry Christmas to all readers of my section.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 22, 2020, 11:36:07 PM
Building several registrations by cutting off a nearly half part of the BP decisions has proven to be particularly effective in reducing dispersion values. Thus disproving the common concept that no matter which spots we decide to bet the probability to win or lose remains the same.

When we put two A/B opposite situations to fight against, we'll expect to get the same WL gaps distribution.
For example, after a given A/B four hand sample, the probability to get AAAA or BBBB will be 2/16.

Of course putting to fight mere B and P decisions on the same 4-hand sample will get, itlr, different distributions as B>P, but we know that such slight discrepancy won't do the job as being too much affected by volatility.
More precisely, we can't guess the spots where an asymmetrical hand will take place, because it needs a lot of favourable circumstances to appear. Moreover, we can't build a profitable betting plan onto a 8.6% whimsical probability.

Our hypothesis was built on the idea that certain portions of the deck are more affected by the slight asymmetrical nature of the game and, more importantly, by the finite key card distribution any shoe dealt provides.
And only a kind of "coin flip" A/B plan applied to several registrations could do the best to find out if we were right or wrong, as we had assigned the A=B variable.

The above AAAA or BBBB (or ABAB or BBAA for that matter) possible patterns springing out from a 4-hand sample after our new "hand cutting off" will become: (* symbol stands for a hand not belonging to our registration)

A*A**AA  or

**B*BB***B or

A**B*B**A or

*B*A**AA

and so on for every of the possible 16 patterns any 4-hand will be formed.

Now  we should expect that itlr A*A**AA = AAAA, **B*BB***B = BBBB, A**B*B**A = ABBA (lol) and *B*A**AA = BAAA.
In a word that every * symbol won't intefere with the AB general probability to show up.
And this is not going to happen. At least when given cutoff points are considered.
And actually whenever none or few * symbols build a given pattern, higher will be the probability to fall into the unwanted "random" world.

According to our results, most of the time there are only one or two spots per playable shoe to make a substantial EV+ bet. Thus bet the maximum limit allowed at that table, period.

Nevertheless and considering the casino comps and the gambling attitude of most HS bac players (not mentioning the camouflage approach, we never know), the probability to get all winning hands per playable shoe is well greater than expected after vig.

If we think we are crossing a kind of profitable shoe, along with our main wager plan we should even consider a meek "side bet" to start with, parlaying it until the end of the shoe as the probability to get all winnings will be well proportionally higher than expected.

Probably this last assumption is one of the best accomplishment one should look for, getting a given set of all winning hands per shoe.
Playable shoe, I mean.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: paradigmus on December 23, 2020, 02:16:18 PM
So did I once engage in betting and our mentor taught me that it is necessary to take into account not only the probability, since it is not only about mathematics. There was an important coin aspect that I cite almost every time there is a debate about distance profit. An excellent analogy. The probability of falling out of one of the sides of the perfect coin is 50% = 0.5 or 1/2, which means that, on average, each side should fall out once out of two throws. But in fact, you can flip a coin ten times, and all ten - it will come up, for example, tails. This nuance is called variance, and it is it that often misleads many players. I tested this theory at ............./ and was practically convinced of the opposite, the probability value means the frequency with which this event will occur in an infinite number of attempts. The fewer tests, the more (in percentage terms) the actual result may deviate from the mathematical expectation. This is variance.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 27, 2020, 09:23:08 PM
Excellent point, at least in the way I got it.

Probability can only be precisely ascertained by collecting from large datasets the limiting values of relative frequency of the events we're interested to classify.
Moreover to prove the complete randomness and to deny possible exploitable defects of the game, such classifications must be totally insensitive to place selection and probability after events tools.

And fortunately this is not going to happen, for good peace of the many stating that, for example, no matter when we start or stop our betting the probability to get a B double (ties ignored) will be 0.5068 x 0.5068 or that a PPPP pattern probability is totally insensitive of the previous hands quality taken at diverse ways.
Average values corresponding to math general probabilities itlr do not mean a fkng nothing to me as they are mixing here with there, up with down, that is just considering back to back results.

Baccarat is the prototype of a dynamic probabilities model, an ever changing proposition that should be investigated by comparing the actual dependent and dynamic probability model with a  coin flip "control" model. Shoe per shoe.

This help us to define when the asymmetrical feature will make a greater, neutral or lesser impact over certain outcomes than expected, or vice versa when the simple key card distribution will prompt at valuable degrees more likely patterns on the mere prevalent "coin flip" general attitude.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 03, 2021, 10:08:16 PM
Gambling results are made of gaps, that is the number of intervals between a given event appearance and the opposing counterpart.
At baccarat BP probabilities are more or less corresponding to a A/B binomial model.   

Over a given sample of outcomes, higher is the number of gaps greater will be the probability to detect the apparition of one of both sides.
Thus it's way more likely to "be right" within a restrict progressive betting range on a 26-hand sequence like this:
AABABBBABABBAABAAABABBAABA than on a same 26-hand sequence as AAAABBBAABAABBBBABBAAAABBB

In the former example we got 16 gaps, in the latter the gaps number is 10.

Actually a simple flat betting procedure dictating to wager the same side happened last will produce (before vig) a -7 units and a +7 units.

In reality those two different sequences, whether compared to a virtual independent 50/50 model, formed patterns quite different than expected.

The former sequence is made of 9 singles, 5 doubles and 2 triples (average 50/50 probability being respectively 6.5, 3.25, 1.625)

The second sequence is made of 2 singles, 3 doubles, 1 triple and 3 streaks superior than 3.
(the final BBB sequence cannot be registered so far to any class other than a superior pattern than a double).
Of course the probability to get streaks superior than triples on a 26-hand sample is 0.8125.

Card speaking and thinking about average values, this means that in the former sequence key cards were more likely equally distributed on both sides and that in the latter sequence a strong key card imbalance went out for "long".

Many out of "key card" parameters will form the real BP results and all related AB outcomes (think about asymmetrical hand scenarios), but itlr and sure as hell, most gap numbers will be sensitive by the actual dynamic key card distribution prompting a great, average, light or neutral impact over the results.

Of course there's a natural relationship between gaps and streaks lenght that goes well beyond a mere 50/50 probability or a general whimsical asymmetrical strenght.

A thing we'll see shortly.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 04, 2021, 12:11:46 AM
Example.

A strict selected streaks approach could help us to define how things really work at baccarat even though we're considering simple B/P results.
That is considering mere B/P big road streaks happening at each shoe dealt.

Hypothesis

Knowing the ascertained math asymmetrical BP general probability, BP streaks distribution coming from real shuffled shoes are not following everytime dispersion values typical of a still 0.5068/0.4932 probability model.
Simply put, that the probability to get B or P at different spots taken will be different than the expected unbeatable values, meaning that some spots could be EV+ for the player.
A possible cause of such an effect should rely upon the finite key card impact acting along any shoe.

Method (material isn't discussed here for obvious reasons)

We've set up precise parameters to try to disprove our hypothesis.
After any streak of given lenght has appeared on any shoe, we wanted to test the "back to back" same streak lenght probability acting along any shoe, a supposedly almost 50/50 probability as B>P, albeit this last being a very volatile probability.
Therefore, we assumed B=P, assigning a greater value to the actual key card distribution.

Hence we've classified streaks among the more likely situations happening along any shoe that is restricting them within three different classes: doubles, triples, and 4-hand streaks.

"Back to back" means that whether no given class appeared so far, no one classification could be made.
In a word, that if a given streak apparition not happened so far, in our eyes that streak class  wouldn't exist in the shoe we're facing at.
This help us to reduce the general probability related to the actual probability.

Any real streak of given lenght up to any 4-hand streak (this value is set up only for practical reasons) will proportionally fight with an equal or superior lenght streak, but it's way more probable than expected that some streaks of given short lenght will get at least a single win on relatively "short" sequences of hands dealt.

Tomorrow a post about how this simple plan will get the best of it by any means.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: Babu on January 04, 2021, 03:47:11 AM
Have we come to a definitely conclusion yet or is it still in the making. If the answer is yes, it would be nice to see it put in action. All these advance talks have killed many brain cells.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 05, 2021, 12:28:04 AM
Babu thanks for your reply.
Yep, there's a lot of confusing stuff in this thread, but there's also a common trait working on.

Imo, in order to find possible baccarat flaws one of the best approach we could make is to compare real baccarat results with a "control" model derived by a coin flip model. Shoe per shoe.

We know that bac results are "biased" by either the slight asymmetricity and slight card dependency, but differently to coin flip propositions bac real probabilities are moving around a more confused world as the actual key card distribution will make a major role about the long term outcomes.

Everybody quite familiar with both baccarat and roulette knows that baccarat streaks tend to be shorter than roulette streaks.
Indeed at baccarat there's a very very slight propensity to get the opposite result already happened.

But that's not the point, the important feature to investigate upon is that a part of seemingly same streaks lenght are formed by different quality factors.

And on most part of the shoes, the "quality factor" cannot last for long as deeply influenced by the asymmetrical nature of the game favoring B and the actual key card distribution.
Even without considering the real quality nature of hands, itlr back to back hands taken at different pace will form different probability lines.

That's why itlr common derived roads will form more long clustered doubles on Beb and SR or clustered longer streaks on Cockroach road than Big Road registration.

For example, you need at least a 3 x sample to get a consecutive ten double sequence at Big Road than at Beb or SR.
The same concept applies to Cockroach road regarding longer streaks probability.

That doesn't mean to set up a method about simply mining doubles on Beb and SR or mining long streaks at Cockroach road.

Anyway, derived roads inventors were real geniuses (probably involuntarily) to set up the foundamentals of a long term winning plan as there are only two Big Road conditions making univocal results on all three derived roads: long singles sequences and long streaks.
Both quite unlikely.

Remember, we do not want to win many spots per shoe, let alone one spot per every shoe dealt. Just one.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 10, 2021, 10:50:28 PM
There are no wrong or right methods to beat (or not) this game itlr, there are only methods that do work.
Meaning that our method after a decent number of trials had to get profits by flat betting.

It's quite easy to confuse the steady probability of success with the dynamic long term WL probability typical of baccarat.

Itlr (and even in most short run situations) probability of success line tends to get the zero value, whereas WL dynamic probability must get an ascending line formed by "infinite" positive or negative short segments where positive segments are either longer or more frequent than the negative conterparts.

Probability of success is symmetrically placed no matter how deeply we've built our progression plan. No way a strict math progression without a valid bet selection could get the best of it for long. Itlr positive fragments will be equal in lenght and frequency as the negative counterparts, even though we know that B>P. Actually the B>P factor is quite volatile and restricted to rare situations (we well know this).

To beat this game itlr we need to find the unsteady situations where our plan might discard the potential B/P plan variance, exchanging it with the more regular A/B registration made on several steps.
Card speaking, it's like we are challenging the system to provide univocal math advantaged spots acting for long and at different degrees instead of a natural more likely balanced key card falling.

Our datasets show that dissecting the shoe into an average number of 4 or 5 key situations will make the highest player's edge. Yet remember that not every shoe is playable.   

If any bet is insensitive to past decisions, why the hell a given flat betting plan will get a slow but steady positive ascending line?

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on January 10, 2021, 11:48:45 PM
As you said, "There are no wrong or right methods to beat (or not) this game itlr, there are only methods that do work".

Exactly!  So true. 

I remember talking to a very experienced long-time dealer at a large casino not long ago and he primarily deals Baccarat full-time 6 days a week. So naturally he is dealing the cards a lot more than each of us is playing the game. And he really summed it up and I've said some of it before in the past.

Which is what wins on one shoe will lose on the very next shoe or what wins in the current shoe will lose consistently for the following shoes. What wins in the first half of the shoe will lose every single time in the second half of the shoe. What wins within 10 hands will lose within the next ten hands and to everybody's surprise will win again for another 10 hands and then will lose again for the subsequent ten hands.

And then he goes on to talk about dealers.  Somebody has winning sessions with one dealer repetitively that same person will have losing sessions with eventually and blame the dealer for it, all the while other people are winning with the same dealer, that person was losing with.

And then he went on to casinos, citing how some players swear up and down that they can win at one casino when they cannot win at another casino. Then he went on to days of the week, where players will swear up and down they can win on certain days of the week as well as certain times of the day or the night and lose at other times. He cited a lot more examples but you get the point.

As you said, "Our datasets show that dissecting the shoe into an average number of 4 or 5 key situations will make the highest player's edge. Yet remember that not every shoe is playable".  And I have posted extensively about Sections.  I have found that proper use of Sections to be an advantage many times. 

There is most certainly winning and losing times and I've talked about that in my own posts referencing such things as Sections and Plateaus. 

No matter how a person links the wins and the losses to the numbers, the cards, to people playing, the dealers, the casinos, the time of day or night, the color of his chips, the seat number, or any one of another 20 or 30 factors the bottom line will always be the same. And that is something will be related to wins for short sections of time, but will not consistently hold true shoe after shoe, day after day, month after month, from casino to casino. And that is 100% fact.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on January 11, 2021, 12:31:29 AM
https://betselection.cc/index.php?topic=10793.0

Helping to Define Presentments, Models & Bet Selection Wagering, PART 1

Helping to Define Presentments, Models & BetSelection Wagering, PART 2

Models are nice because they are finite.  Simple.  A model is tangible in so many words.  And yes, that model might have worked, but still, there is no way to define how large and how long anyone needs to sustain himself at a gaming table until that model kicks in and hopefully performs in the same length, shape and longevity as it did on the model that was discovered by its author, etc.  And more times than not, if not all, there will be periods of thousands and thousands of hands presented until those models do present themselves for an unknown and in no way guaranteed length of stay, let alone arrival.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 16, 2021, 11:20:37 PM
As sayed several times here, we want to play baccarat with you Al, it's very very likely our hyper selected betting plan will correspond to your methodology taken at different degrees.

Few bac players reached the experience level to ascertain what is worth to bet and what it isn't, that's why we need a strong measurement of our possible edge to verify this game is really beatable. Or not.

There are general and specific means to lower, nullify or invert the house edge. 

General means to lower the casino's edge

Reducing at most our betting rate is not only the best tool to lose less money but to define at most what the fk we're really going to accomplish.
If it's literally impossible to define a betting model capable to win at a fair coin flip proposition, let's think about what are our probabilities to win at a EV- kind of coin flip model.
Zero.

Naturally and to give the casinos the idea we're pure losers we can adopt a spread betting range wagering one standard unit per every hand dealt and betting 3, 4 or 5 x bet in the selected profitable spots.
They do not care a bit about it, every our bet will be EV-. At their eyes.

Of course casinos are simultaneously thrilled and worried about those rare maximum limit bets as the actual bet or next bets cannot be more wrong than the math negative edge applied (after comps and/or rebates).
I mean that no 5k or 20k bet can cross a real -1.06%/-1.24% negative edge as some lost money is given back to the player no matter what.

Conclusively, bac players that are proportionally losing less money are maximum limit bettors, at
the same time constituting a real threat over casino's pockets as the edge remains quite small.
Ask any supervisor casino you want whether he/she would be really enthusiastic about facing an occasional univocal and rare 90K euros bet coming from three different players.
They should have been happy but actually they didn't. Especially after the outcome.

Specific means to invert the house edge

Arrange the cards in the fkng way you want. You can put all same rank cards consecutively or alternatively or whatever you'd like, a most likely distribution or most likely arrangement will come along the way providing previous results are considered by a strict scheme.
A kind of profitable clustering effect will come out along the way by a stastical sensitivity and specificiity rounding 100%.

And we need just one clustering step to be ahead.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 17, 2021, 11:56:07 PM
Clustering effect

Baccarat is a game of clusters of different lenght and thickness.
And of course at baccarat there are no real symmetrical situations: for example, a 9 falling on the first two Player cards doesn't get the same power than a 9 falling on the two first Banker cards.
The probability to get that 9 falling on either side is equal but the effects are not symmetrical.

This concept could be applied to many other key card ranks, 8s and 7s of course but even 5s and 4s follow the same principle.

Any shoe dealt is formed by different "states" that eventually equal the rank number but the situations forming outcomes and player's ROI start asymmetrically, stay asymmetrically and end up asymmetrically.
The main reason conditioning the outcomes itlr regards the key card distribution getting different powers depending upon the side cards will fall at.
Most of the times key cards determine those outcomes. Not every time but most of the time.
When the outcomes seem to be too whimsically produced (see next post), it means that the shoe is not playable (that is unprofitable). We name that as "a very low clustered shoe".

Baccarat outcomes are not B or P results. Yes, we need a B or P to show up in order to register our random walk lines as there are no other betting options.
In reality baccarat is a game of states and not an endless B/P sequence.

We've seen that there are tools to derive unrandom successions from a primitive random sequence, our task should be focused to assess when one or more unrandom successions will take just one step forward toward the clustering world.
To maximize the reward risk ratio, per each shoe played looking for just one step is more than enough to battle versus a sure EV- math game.

By far and without any doubt, our EV will be greater and affected by the most ridiculously low variance when we'll try to find out just one profitable state per every playable shoe.
This means to discard a lot of unplayable situations and naturally to possibly witness "all winning" shoes without betting a dime.
It's not a coincidence that those rare long term winning players after winning or losing their "key hands" simply quit the table.

Deciding to be ahead of more than one step per playable shoe is a sure risky move to put in jeopardy the actual edge we get over the casinos.
On average clustered states are slight more likely than expected and that is mainly due to an imperfect shuffling.

Consider baccarat in the same way as black jack works for card counters even though by totally different reasons.
At bj profitable card counting situations cannot last for long. The same happens at baccarat.
We want to play by concentrating at most our edge, challenging the bac system to show its flaws within very few spots.


as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 19, 2021, 11:31:26 AM
Btw, I highly suggest you to read this book:

Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke


as.

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on January 19, 2021, 12:12:01 PM
Key hands are very deceiving and until fully understood by the person playing and how he interprets what will help him or what might hurt him, it will continue to be a very deceiving advantage that is probably one of the strongest advantages the player can obtain to favor himself.  However, each person must figure out how to interpret what can and cannot be interpreted in comparison to the instant presentments. 

Prior to all the scoreboards being installed which was in the late 90s right around 2000 the highest majority of the players did keep score on a manual scorecard of course but there was a much higher ratio of playing for what was being presented rather than the highest concentration on what has happened in the shoe because of the scoreboard being right there and everyone pointing to it and  most everyone basing their decisions on what has happened rather than what is happening. It is much harder for the new baccarat player to concentrate on the actual presentments rather than the constantly illuminated scoreboard with the many different sections of it being visually overwhelming.

In my opinion the scoreboards are used improperly by the highest majority of the players at the tables.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 24, 2021, 08:45:34 PM
Quote from: alrelax on January 19, 2021, 12:12:01 PM
Prior to all the scoreboards being installed which was in the late 90s right around 2000 the highest majority of the players did keep score on a manual scorecard of course but there was a much higher ratio of playing for what was being presented rather than the highest concentration on what has happened in the shoe because of the scoreboard being right there and everyone pointing to it and  most everyone basing their decisions on what has happened rather than what is happening. It is much harder for the new baccarat player to concentrate on the actual presentments rather than the constantly illuminated scoreboard with the many different sections of it being visually overwhelming.

In my opinion the scoreboards are used improperly by the highest majority of the players at the tables.

True, yet the derived road inventors had made the first primordial attempt to use the important probability after events tool, one of the two statistical parameters that could get us a real edge.

Of course most players make a bad use of those roads, trying to win an endless number of hands around any corner by hoping that "trends" must remain univocal for long.
In a word, they just gamble.

I agree with you that just one type of registration will make things simpler for many experienced players, especially for those capable to promptly recognize that some shoes cannot be played at all.
Now baccarat becomes more an art than a science, but imo we must find ways to scientifically prove the game is beatable by every person in the world.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 24, 2021, 11:00:45 PM
Let's compare baccarat with two casino games that have demonstrated to get players an edge.

First game is black jack.
How the hell bj was considered a beatable game?
By running millions of pc shoes to test whether high card and aces concentration (theory) really goes to player's advantage by a hi/lo card counting.
The theory was verified by practice. Bj is a math beatable game by card counting (providing a valuable penetration, etc).

Second game is craps.
Some shooters after having practiced for long at home think to be "dice controllers", meaning that they can throw the dice unrandomly thus producing profitable situations. For example, lowering the "sevens" rate or enhancing the 6 appearance on either cubes. That is to transform a random model into a wanted unrandom model.
To test the possible "unrandom" profitability such players would run thousands of throws, that means to study the limiting values of relative frequency that must deviate from common math  expectancy applied to random outcomes.
If after a given amount of trials (of course the greater the better) the "sevens" percentage was lower than expected and/or the "6" appearance was greater than expected, those players might think to get an edge at different degrees (this not necessarily capable to invert the house edge in their favor) and now we talk about "statistical significance" (again restricted within certain levels).
Now theory can't be 100% ascertained by practice for two reasons: first, there's always a tiny probability to have registered unrandom results by coincidence; secondly, the dice throws sample is way more restricted than bj numbers.

Nonetheless, those dice controllers can't give a lesser damn about millions of throws proving or not their confidence to beat craps. They just collect the money won or accept the losses, assigning the possible temporary failure to a umproper technique due to several disparate causes.

Imo baccarat stays in the middle of those two extremes.

From one part certain very rare math distributions will favor B or P, but we know this feature isn't exploitable.
Yet, itlr key cards will affect the real outcomes not in the way studied so far (one side should be mathematically more likely than the other one) but in term of gaps probability intervening between two different situations not belonging to B and P.

From the other part, we must challenge the "baccarat model" to always provide perfect randomly situations regardless of when we decide to bet, a thing scientifically proven to be wrong at least in the live shoes dealt sample that any human can collect.
Now it's the dealer or the SM to really make the desired unrandom world we want to get.

In fact it's virtually impossible that at an 8-deck shoe a human or a physical shuffle machine will be able to arrange key cards proportionally for the entire lenght of the shoe, our datasets strongly state otherwise.

Again the probability after events tool will get us the decisive factor to beat baccarat.
Without any doubt.

Tomorrow we'll see why.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 25, 2021, 11:30:44 PM
A baccarat shoe is formed by a finite amount of two-card 'states', that is high card situations math  favoring remarkably the side where the highest point will fall at. 
By far this is the main factor directing the final outcomes.
Some two-card points will be equal on either side, so the outcome is based upon the third and/or fourth card quality, of course according to the bac rules of asymmetricity favoring B.
And naturally many different two-card points need the third/fourth card intervention to address the results.

Even though the third (and/or fourth) card whimsically invert the initial math advantage, itlr and also in the shortest runs the side getting the highest point will be a sure winner.

We do not know which side will be kissed by such highest two-card point, but we can estimate how long a side should be more likely than the other because we can't erase key cards from the shoe or hoping that the side we didn't bet get a key card combined with a low card.

Anyway this feature cannot be assessed by the mere B/P distributions as a dynamic probability, typical of baccarat, can't be validly estimated actual result by actual result as too severely affected by variance.
We need advanced techinques to really ascertain the states movements working at the shoe we're playing at.
Simply put, we need to build a scheme where the states changements must follow more likely lines at the same time getting very low degrees of variance.
Most of the times they do, other times they don't but just for a lack of space factor along with other statistical issues.

The states changements reliability can be so high that playing at shoes very bad shuffled we can even afford to set up plans oriented to get multiple winnings per shoe by adopting a kind of "sky's the limit" attitude.

How to get the full value of probability after events at baccarat

Regardless of the techniques utilized, itlr BP results will form the same number of AB opposite situations.
Therefore A=B.
We see that no side will be advantaged in term of A or B quantities, even though an acute and very experienced player could get the best of it by exploiting some actual A or B deviations.

Now we take a step further.
We want to discard some A or B events according to a precise plan. If the game is perfect randomly dealt and/or perfect flawless at any spot, the resulting registration shouldn't be affected by any means, and actually itlr A=B yet.
It remains to assess the very important AB distribution that should be insensitive to our place selection artifice that must confirm the randomness. That is increment steps of A or B. 

A simple combinatorial analysis show that whenever some spots are not included in our chosen data, some patterns are more likely than others. That is we can get a sure edge over the house.
I mean a great edge, not that miserable bj card counting edge.

The reason why discarding hands from our data is proven to produce a sure unrandom world is given by the difficulty to arrange key cards proportionally along any shoe dealt.

Hint: we must use a plan capable to discard the greatest number of more likely BP events.
Notice I mentioned BP events and not AB events. 

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on January 28, 2021, 12:48:39 PM
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on January 24, 2021, 11:00:45 PM
Let's compare baccarat with two casino games that have demonstrated to get players an edge.


From one part certain very rare math distributions will favor B or P, but we know this feature isn't exploitable.

Yet, itlr key cards will affect the real outcomes not in the way studied so far (one side should be mathematically more likely than the other one) but in term of gaps probability intervening between two different situations not belonging to B and P.


as.

Asym,

It is exploitable as long as it is happening.

The confusion, frustration and of course the disbelief comes to players when they attempt situation after situation after situation. 

But it is definitely exploitable.  Small sections, sometimes and no rhyme or reasons in so many words as to when those do appear.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on January 28, 2021, 01:04:56 PM
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on January 25, 2021, 11:30:44 PM
A baccarat shoe is formed by a finite amount of two-card 'states', that is high card situations math  favoring remarkably the side where the highest point will fall at. 



Now we take a step further.
We want to discard some A or B events according to a precise plan. If the game is perfect randomly dealt and/or perfect flawless at any spot, the resulting registration shouldn't be affected by any means, and actually itlr A=B yet.
It remains to assess the very important AB distribution that should be insensitive to our place selection artifice that must confirm the randomness. That is increment steps of A or B. 

A simple combinatorial analysis show that whenever some spots are not included in our chosen data, some patterns are more likely than others. That is we can get a sure edge over the house.
I mean a great edge, not that miserable bj card counting edge.


as.

Asym,

And that is exactly correct, a GREAT EDGE over the house and on your side.

However, almost all players will outdo themselves as this is only possible to achieve when in a certain mind frame. 

There are several different distributions of the cards that can be defined.  But the problem arises most all the time as not holding any pattern or trend whatsoever to follow with or against.  So win one, lose one or win a few and lose a few, etc. 

Players believe they can affect the registrations of the winning or losing hands into their winning wagers.  But in reality they cannot.  The players fuel their own downfall because they believe themselves and their new magical powers they convince themselves they founded at the table.  So, when someone is able to define what caused him to win and that just plays and plays upon themselves until they really do believe they have finally founded the Holy Grail, etc., etc.  even experienced players repeat that exact same scenario, session after session after session after session.  They will not admit it, but an outside person can spot it if you truly take the time to look around the table and watch.     

There are several, probably 4 or 5 registrations (if we are talking the same things) that come about and they are so opposite of each other and so impossible to blanketly predict or expect, etc., a player cannot wager systematically hand after hand, section after section, wager using all of them together and come out ahead.   
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 31, 2021, 08:18:26 PM
Definitely true what you have posted Al, but in the process of getting an edge we must discard some shoes from the play as no section or no portion of some single shoes will get the room and/or the possibility to get valuable card combinations to bet into.

For example, when almost every 8 and 9 had shown and no longer available, next outcomes will be affected by a huge degree of volatility, say a huge degree of randomness.

No 8 or 9 available = more hands will involve the use of six cards, the highest degree of randomness.
And it's not a coincidence that ties are well more likely when hands got to use six cards.

It could happen that very talented players might get the best of it by ascertaining valuably those rare deviated shoes, we prefer to bet toward the remaining more predominant part of shoes where an event A is a long term favorite over the counterpart B.
After vig, of course.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 31, 2021, 08:42:33 PM
Imo, it's of paramount importance to know that the baccarat model can be beaten ONLY in selected circumstances capable to enhance the probability to get a more likely card distribution.

We can't beat every shoe dealt and let alone we can't think that those deviated shoes will get us a greater amount of wins than the more likely losing counterparts.

Either we discard from our play the more likely world or we discard those very deviated shoes.
I guess we'll do better by adopting the latter line.

Btw: since this fkng covid-19 won't get away so fast, we're ready to set up an online team to teach the world how things really work at baccarat so anyone can see for free how to win at this game.
Without utilizing those ridicolous idi.o.t fkng utube videos.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 02, 2021, 11:25:17 PM
Comparing our live shoes dataset with either pc simulated shoes and deeply shuffled manually shoes, we've seen that the former category differs from the latter by two specular probabilities:

- the probability to get long streaks (it was demonstrated to be greater at live shoes)

- the probability to get long "chopping" patterns (it was demonstrated to be lower at live shoes)

That doesn't mean that live shoes tend to produce more streaks than singles, just that our significance statistical tools informed us that after some cutoff points were surpassed, live shoes need a lesser amount of hands to form, say, an 8 streak or conversely a greater amount of hands to produce an 8 chopping pattern.

Given the relative mediocrity of our live shoes sample compared to the endless pc simulated and self manual shuffled shoes samples, we were interested to find whether such peculiarity would be present in every live casino shoe registration.
And we were impressed to get an affirmative answer. (Even more when other scholars have found the same feature).

In essence, many live shoes are affected by a bias acting at various degrees and we think the reason belongs to the difficulty to shuffle key cards in a proper randomly fashion.

Of course not every live shoe is shuffled badly and there's always the probability that a biased shoe will produce seemingly "random" results.

Since live shoes tend to produce a proportional lesser amount of long chopping lines and a greater amount of long streaks than expected, we might set up a betting plan that doesn't involve the short chopping situations and the streaks that surpass a given lenght.
Now we are playing at a restricted field, from one part getting rid of many short single sequences and from the other one by considering streaks after x and up to y.

Nonetheless, only a derived AB plan could further restrict the variance as it gets rid of many unpolarized situations enhancing the uncertainty.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 07, 2021, 11:35:07 AM
Given the astounding asymmetrical and finite features working at baccarat, the only possibility to lose is whenever the card distribution remains so hugely polarized for long that no betting plan could get the edge we're looking for.

Curiously those last are the bread and butter situations that recreational players are looking for: a kind of endless jackpots, in the meanwhile trying to survive into the most likely non-jackpot successions.

Actually I have nothing against it: in some casinos, cards are so badly shuffled that peddling a long streak gets a way larger probability than expected.
Such casinos use a same shoe that is manually shuffled very quickly only by halves.

The problem is that most casinos where some serious money might be wagered at, apply more deep "independent" shuffles.

Anyway and without any shadow of doubt, real advantage players know that the average probability to get a given event along certain portions of the shoe is well greater than expected.
Not a serious threat for casinos as the remaining 99.9% of players (quite probably more than that) will be eager to get their money separated from them.

That means that per every shoe you'll decide to play at, the more you want to be right higher will be the probability to be wrong. 
Especially if you'd force the probability to be right by adopting a betting progression without a proper and very diluted bet selection.

Low and high asymmetrical distributions can't get us any edge, our edge comes out from more likely moderate asymmetrical distributions.
The 'low' world could be easily get rid of by starting our registration after a given deviation had started to appear.
The 'high' world must be restricted by trying to put a stop by wagering a very limited amount of bets up to a point.

Think that in order to get an edge itlr, we must prove that after adopting a given discontinued registration (limited random walks), there will be a finite number of either increments or decrements not corresponding to the expected values.


as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 11, 2021, 11:09:19 PM
THis is a quite long post, please read carefully not reaching quick conclusions.

Let's talk about a specific bac method derived from an old craps interesting system very few people know about.

Craps system

The system works against the probability that four consecutive craps players will make 4 or more passes each (pass=wins on the pass line bet).
Whenever each player reaches the four pass level, we are not interested anymore on what happens next about this shooter, we'll wait the next shooter. 

Thus we'll place our bets only on the don't pass line.
When such thing will happen we'll lose our entire bankroll.

The betting multilayered progression is:

$10, $20, $40, $80

$20, $40, $80, $160

$30, $60, $120, $240

$40, $80, $160, $320

Total bankroll at risk = $1500

Anytime we lose a bet we'll step forward the next progressive amount, when we win a bet at any level we'll go back to the first original progressive line ($10, $20, etc)

To lose the entire bankroll we need a 16-consecutive losing sequence, and this thing surely will happen but at a very very low degree of probability.
In any case, even when this nasty thing happens, we could be in the positive field as it's likely we have accumulated many wins on the more likely positive situations.

Comments

You can notice that wins made on a given level will cancel just the previous same level losing bets.
For example, after getting 6 losing hands in a row followed by a win ($80 bet on second level), we are still behind $130 that in a way or another must be recovered by the first level progression.

Actually only the first level progression will make us pure winners, subsequent levels diminish the deficit just by small loss percentages.
Per each level we're proportionally win $10, or recover from the overall losing situation respectively $20 (second level), $30 (third level) and $40 (final level).

It's a long waiting process as it could take several rolls to produce either a single win or a single loss. Not mentioning that placing progressive don't pass bets will arise other players hostility.
Who gives a fk about other players, but prolonging too much our betting frequency is a bigger issue.
Moreover, it's quite difficult to accept the idea that after a $450 loss (two full progressions that went wrong) the system dictates to wager just $30 (first step of the third progression level).

Believe it or not, the probability such system will bring us in the positive side are quite interesting, even though we know that sooner or later s.hit will happen. (but even in this scenario we could be winners).

Finally it's obvious to state that craps is just made by endless independent random successions.
Therefore, odds to lose our entire bankroll are nearly 1 : 65.536. 

Modeling this system to baccarat

Good news are that baccarat isn't an independent and random game, moreover is a finite card game.
Bad news are that each bet isn't following precise probability percentages, as a strong dynamic probability could affect the outcomes in either a positive or a negative way.
And of course the irregular asymmetrical BP probability and the constant asymmetrical payment will make a huge role along the way.

Nonetheless, I see a common important trait between our strategies and this craps method inventor: when considering gambling games, after a cutoff point is surpassed and incorporated into a finite field, we shouldn't be interested anymore to register the results.

In addition, notice the important parameter assumed by the craps expert: he or she didn't want to challenge a single player getting a 16-passes streak in some way, he preferred to split his/her strategy by spreading it on consecutive different limited random sources.
In a nutshell, the probability a single craps shooter will get a 16-pass streak is higher than the probability that four distinct consecutive shooters will get 4 passes each.
Scientifically speaking this craps method inventor indirectly doubted about the place selection and probability after events tools confirming or not the perfect randomness of the results.

Back to baccarat.

We have to choose the procedures to transfer at baccarat those craps ideas.

First, we should define any single craps shooter as a first B or P appearance.
Any new shooter won't act as long as a new BP shift come out (an exception is about the very first B or P result).

Therefore we need a 5 same streak apperance happening on either side to lose our first level progression. (First hand is just a non-bet signal to classify a new player) 
Say the first hand is B. Now we'll play against a B streak of 5+, stopping if a 5-streak happened.
The same about P. And so on.

In a word, we're challenging every shoe dealt to produce back to back 5+ streaks happening consecutively and we need four consecutive 5+ B/P streaks to lose our entire bankroll.
Notice that at craps each sevening-out shooter will make a end of his/her winning streak, now at baccarat we'd classify as a new shooter the next BP shift.

Even though we're classifying mere BP results (and you well know there are greater better random walk lines to wager into) the probability to get four or more 5+ B or P consecutive streaks is almost not existent.
Now we know that the losing bankroll probability won't happen at humanly considered ranges. 

But wait.

In order to get an edge, we need that first level progression will get more wins than expected. In poorer word that streaks are cumulatively not reaching the 5+ degree level.
Not mentioning that every B result is burdened by a 5% vig.

If a simple B/P consecutive winning streak pattern should be affected by a lack of proper randomness and/or affected by the bac rules, is any distinct back to back B or P succession following more detectable patterns?

A thing we'll consider on the next post.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on February 11, 2021, 11:27:13 PM
1-3-2-6 and then if successful, use 4 or 6 units out of the 12 win and adhere to the 1/3-1/3-1/3rd I have discussed.  Or, use a 2-4-6 in the beginning and then devote 4 or 6 units out of the win and pull down subsequent wins, etc.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 18, 2021, 11:55:14 PM
That's my 1k post on this wonderful site, congratulations to this forum upgrade.

@Al: 1-3-2-6 betting approach is useful as long as we are sure we can get an edge by flat betting, thus it's just a profit scheme enhancer (more WW situations than WL spots, etc)

Win frequency

Most part of money won by casinos derives from an improper W/L assessment and not for the math advantage we must endure.
Take the 16-step betting scheme I was talking about above.

Say that after 8 bets that went wrong (that is a -$450 deficit) the plan dictates our next bet will be $30.
Basically we're betting only the 6.66% percentage of what we're losing.
Now tell me whether a -$450 losing player will place just a fkng $30 wager.

Actually that's the wisest move he/she can take (as long as we know to play with an advantage).
First, a huge deficit must be compensated slowly as the probability to get a quick kind of symmetrical WL ratio is very low, secondly risking too much money in order to get a fast recover will expose us to the fatal risk of losing our entire bankroll.

When our random walks-whatever running- reach some extremes, the probability to get a "balanced" or more likely status is generally small and quite diluted.

To get a vulgar example of this, think about how many times we'll face a BBBBBBBB sequence (we'd bet P every hand causing us eight losses) suddendly followed by a specular PPPPPPPP or PPPPPPP pattern (again we always bet P).
Yes, it could happen, the same way slots can give you a kind of little jackpot.

Actually, all baccarat systems rely upon the probability that things must change in player's favor with no regards about the important time factor (number of shoes dealt, or better sayed, number of hands really wagered).

Let me present a real example of this.

Several years ago, a bunch of japanese players joined one of the Vegas HS baccarat room, they managed to fill all the table seats.
A leader instructed all his peers to bet the same side he had chosen to wager and btw all bet were made at the maximum limit.
Things went out that a couple of consecutive shoes produced a very strong Player predominance, at the end casino lost the like of $1.4 millions.

Such players kept playing baccarat for the next few days of their trip, and not surprisingly they'd lost some of the money won, anyway they quit Vegas as huge overall winners.

The question is about how many days this casino had managed to recover such a loss: many.
Despite of the sure math advantage, the casino needed several days to recover that loss and we are talking about players getting a win by playing the strongest uphill percentages.

Back to the 4 step x 4 step betting sequence.

At baccarat and differently to craps, when utilizing a proper bet selection the probability to be wrong 16 times in a row is not existent at all, and I'm not referring to the probability to cross a 16 streak in various shapes.

The main probability to get wins is about the first 4-step wagering, subsequent steps will just proportionally raise the probability to recover previous losses.

And we can safely assume that even adopting a "risky" progressive approach, the probability to lose our 150 unit bankroll is almost zero.

I'll prove this on my next post.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on February 19, 2021, 04:06:09 PM
Congrats AsymBacGuy on your 1000 post above.  :applause:

This is a good thread /subtopic and I like the analogy with the outcomes profile in craps. I think you will agree there are many similarities when comparing craps to bac. A couple huge differences too(as u point out one above re: dependence)

I look forward to  your next post in the series.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 22, 2021, 10:57:24 PM
Quote from: KungFuBac on February 19, 2021, 04:06:09 PM
Congrats AsymBacGuy on your 1000 post above.  :applause:

This is a good thread /subtopic and I like the analogy with the outcomes profile in craps. I think you will agree there are many similarities when comparing craps to bac. A couple huge differences too(as u point out one above re: dependence)

I look forward to  your next post in the series.

Thanks KFB! :-)

Yep, besides the dependency factor, I totally agree that craps and baccarat tend to work by similarities.

When a craps shooter bet the pass line he/she has 2:1 odds to win (http://immediately) as there are 6 ways to form a winning seven and 2 ways to form an eleven (8 winning ways); a sudden loss comes from rolling a deuce (1 way), a three (2 ways) and a twelve (1 way) totaling 4 ways to lose. 2:1.
The casino's ploy to reduce a sure math edge for the don't pass bettor derives from transforming a losing twelve for the pass bettor to a push.

After this very first roll not producing a sudden win or loss, the pass line bettor is underdog to win as in relationship of the number established his/her odds to win are 5:6 (six or eight), 4:6 (five and nine) and 3:6 (four and ten).

Thus basically there are two distinct asymmetrical probabilities to get outcomes on either pass or don't pass sides: a sudden win getting 2:1 (pass line) and 3:8 odds (don't pass line); after that the don't pass line is hugely favorite to win at various degrees.

In essence, the above mentioned multilayered betting scheme relies upon the difficulty to first roll sevens and elevens in series greater than 4 per each consecutive shooter.
Of course it could happen that such 7s/11s will be mixed with number repeaters, anyway it's very very very very unlikely to get four consecutive players winning 16 rolls in a row without showing at least one or a couple of immediate 7/11 wins.

At baccarat from one part math propositions are more intricated to grasp, from the other one there are additional factors that might orient our bet selection.

We know that "sudden win or loss" are determined more likely by the fall of strongest key cards (8s and 9s) on the initial two initial cards of a given side, then the side getting the higher two initial card point is hugely favorite to win the hand.

Of course such probabilities are symmetrical (thus undetectable) but the finiteness of the shoe and the key card liveness or shortage along with simple statistical features will help us to define how much such factors are going to produce valuable deviations from the expected line.
As there's no way a perfect key card balancement is going to act along any shoe dealt (even though many not key card situations can produce strong deviated spots), we can infer that most part of random walks are not going to form back to back outcomes totally insensitive to the previous card distribution.

Simply put, the vast majority of shoes dealt are surely affected by a kind of finite dependency deviating from the expected values.

Tomorrow practical examples about that.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on February 25, 2021, 04:42:56 PM
Thx Asymbac

Your statement above:
"...As there's no way a perfect key card balancement is going to act along any shoe dealt (even though many not key card situations can produce strong deviated spots), we can infer that most part of random walks are not going to form back to back outcomes totally insensitive to the previous card distribution..."

In the following example: How is your decision tree designed? In other words what trumps all the thoughts/ideas running through your mind if you were required to wager the very next hand following: P:89 B:44 Bwins; P:98 B:35 Bwins.  So obviously P is getting the cards it wants, yet B is winning with the cards it wants/needs. What say you?

I know there could be dozens of things to consider. Im asking what would typically be at the top of your list that would over rule all the lower level considerations on the decision tree.

Thx in advance,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 26, 2021, 12:04:43 AM
Hi KFB!!

I like very much your "decision tree" words.

First, let's consider your example.
Obviously a banker bettor would be very happy to win those hands and conversely a player bettor quite disappointed.
Nonetheless itlr such specific spots are EV- for Banker bettors and EV+ for Player bettors.
As a standing 7 on P side is favorite to win (and payed 1:1) whereas a winning natural on B side is payed 0.95:1.

If you were to know exactly the first card of the next hand, which side would have you bet?
I guess Player's.
And naturally whenever an asymmetrical hand do not come out within a range validly surpassing the math expectancy, no Banker bet is EV+. 

Since we can't know how cards are distributed but we surely know the average card distribution impact, definitely some ranges of distribution will be slight more likely than others.
The more we're going deeply in the process of classifying the actual results, better will be the long term profitability.

Let's take a very simple approach made on big road.

We'll bet toward getting at least one of the 1-1, 1-2, 2-1 patterns at Banker side, thus our play won't be affected by the vig as our bets will be placed only at Player side.
Anytime a 1 or 2 comes out at B side, we'll bet toward those three patterns. We'll stop the bet until we'll get one unit profit per shoe by utilizing a steady 1-2 progression.

Of course itlr we'll be in the negative as B>P then B1 < B2 < B3+.

That's ok.

But how many times we'll get two or more consecutive set of losses without getting at least one winning pattern we're looking for?

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on February 27, 2021, 05:13:39 PM
Thx  AsymBacGuy for your elaborate response.

This is good: "And naturally whenever an asymmetrical hand do not come out within a range validly surpassing the math expectancy, no Banker bet is EV+."


"...We'll bet toward getting at least one of the 1-1, 1-2, 2-1 patterns at Banker side, thus our play won't be affected by the vig as our bets will be placed only at Player side.
Anytime a 1 or 2 comes out at B side, we'll bet toward those three patterns. We'll stop the bet until we'll get one unit profit per shoe by utilizing a steady 1-2 progression.
. .."

     Can you clarify re: stop the bet until one unit of profit per shoe...etc.

Thx

All The Best,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 02, 2021, 11:09:23 PM
Thank you KFB!!

Any baccarat player needs to find the spots where his/her bets are EV+ as the idea to restrict the negative expectancy by utilizing some kind of progressions or balancement factors are completely wrong both theoretically and practically.
I could be the best disciplined person in the world but a EV- bet remains a EV- bet.
We can't do anything about that mathematically, yet we can do a lot statistically.

Along any BP finite succession, whatever considered, some spots are EV+ at the Banker side and some spots are EV+ at Player side.
This way of thinking totally contrasts with the common concept that every bet is EV- no matter what.

At baccarat, 91.4% of the outcomes are simply following a coin flip probability, just 8.6% of the results are Banker oriented.
Those coin flip situations mainly rely upon the key card distribution, they are not perfect independent spots, yet one side is payed 1:1 and the other one 0.95:1.

Thus a slight dependent coin flip probability tends to provide many "limited" random walks (as key cards are limited both in number and distribution) where a given event is more likely than the counterpart.
Just on 91.6% of the results, of course.

The remaining 8.6% of the outcomes hugely favor Banker side, providing a neutral card distribution, meaning that third cards must belong to a "random" world where each rank is equally probable.

Really?

No fkng way.

A baccarat shoe is formed by a sure asymmetrical rank card distribution, we can't estimate precisely which cards will help a side or not, but we can get a clearer picture whenever we'll consider many kind of  back to back probabilities as the asymmetrical features will dilute more and more up to the point where a reversed strenght will take place.
Even though it could happen to disregard the fact that one side is math advantaged over the other one.

Tomorrow about the B single-double attack.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 03, 2021, 11:46:20 PM
So our goal is to get one of these precise B patterns: 1-1, 1-2, 2-1 and 2-2.
Of course we start the betting when a 1 or a 2 happen.
Since we utilize a mini progression as 1-2 or 100-150 or 100-120, etc. to be ahead of something we need to win right at the first attempt; if we lose this very first attenpt, odds are strongly shifted toward NOT getting any kind of profit as the average number of the searched patterns is four.
(for example, after a L we can only break even with a subsequent WWW sequence)

Nonetheless, we can choose to make our first bet right on the second searched pattern when the first pattern produced a loss, that is betting to get a LW situation.

Since itlr the overall number of L outweigh the number of W (in term of units won/lost), we could test large datasets to see what's the most likely losing pattern distribution.
After all, Banker 3+s are more likely because asym hands come out in finite numbers, mostly clustered.
Hence we do not want to fall into the trap of looking for a positive pattern whenever the first two patterns are LL or risking to cross an unfavourable WL spot.
This is not a stop loss or stop win concept, just a cumulative study on what are our best chances to win at EV- propositions.

After all we can't win less than one unit (or a portion of it) and since we're flat betting we do not want to chase losses when the actual shoe had shown a "negative" propensity from the start. (As we need at least a triple number of W to balance a single L)

On average and choosing to adopt a super selected strategy (waiting shoes forming a first L), we are going to bet nearly 25% of the total shoes dealt.
Moreover, not every shoe will form a four (or greater) WL pattern, some of them stops at two and three (and sometimes only one W or L situation arises).

Why such strategy should enhance our probability to win?

Like other binomial games, most part of bac results are formed by singles and doubles, In three hands dealt, only two patterns over eight form triples (odds 2:8.), the remaining part includes singles and doubles.
Bac rules from one part raise the probability to form 3+s (Banker) and the opposite is true at Player side favoring singles and doubles.
Anyway, this math propensity comes out just one time over 11,62 hands dealt and sometimes it will shift the results very slightly. Not mentioning that some card distributions favor Player side even in asym spots.

Many bac players tend to emphasize too much the less worse 0.18% Banker return, this simple strategy (along with some additional adjustments I do not want to discuss here) shows that we can concede the house the higher advantage; let the house hope everytime we'll make a rare bet an asym hand will come out precisely on that spot.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on March 05, 2021, 06:50:25 AM
Thx AsymBacGuy
Your last two posts have stimulated a couple thoughts/questions that I will follow up on within a couple days.

Im in the process of reading several of your back posts/threads (not all 1000  :nope: , yet) and may find some of the answers there.


All the best,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 09, 2021, 11:58:50 PM
That's good KFB! :-)

Think as baccarat as a game of a slight biased 12-face tossing dice getting 6 B faces and 5 P faces where the remaining 1/12 side prompts the toss of a further hypothetical dice getting 7 B faces and 3 P faces.

If each one-step or two-step toss will be independent from the previous ones, no way a profitable strategy could be applied as the asymmetrical probability will come out proportionally as expected.

I mean that 11 out of 12 possible first dice toss outcomes are differently payed, one side getting 0.95:1 payment and the other one 1:1 payment.
It's just about that nearly 1:12 odds probability that things substantially change by math terms.

Thus Banker bettors will be hugely right just one time over 12 attempts and Player bettors will be hugely wrong just one time over the same 12 hands range.

In a sense Banker bettors are hugely right rarely and Player bettors are hugely wrong rarely.
At the same token, Banker winners are more likely id.iot 5% contributors, whereas Player bettors feel as idi.o.ts just one time over 12 bets. 

The common suggestion dictating to wager B side in order to lower the HE is completely unsound as long as we decide to select at most our bets.
Following this "B always betting" strategy, we see most B bets are hugely unfavorite as the asym strenght happens rarely, mainly as they are not taking into account the whimsical finite key cards impact.

It's interesting to notice that a careful selected betting plan will get more profitable opportunities at Player side than at Banker side, meaning that a 1:1 payment will crush a supposedly 0.95:1 payment diluted at more likely expected math B spots.

Remember that we just need a 50.1% probability on our P bets to get a long term edge.
We shouldn't care less whether we could find ourselves in those rare 42.07%/57.93% disadvantaged asym spots, consider them as a kind of zero happening at roulette now getting a substantial degree of success.

After all it's only the key card distribution who cares itlr, isn't it?

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 10, 2021, 11:36:12 PM
Without any doubt itlr we'll win because the side we have chosen to bet presents more two-card initial points higher than the opposite side.
Although it happens frequently that third card/s will invert this strong advantage, hoping to be ahead for long by guessing repeatedly that the unfavorite side will win is pure illusion.

For example, if we had bet Player getting 2-K and Banker shows 3-T, third card to the Player is a picture and Banker catches a 7 we win the hand but actually we have lost from the start.

Third card/s, besides the important asymmetrical hand factor, are just there for entertainment and to confuse things.
Naturally there are some equal two-card initial points that may need the third card draw, in these situations no one side is advantaged from the start (again besides the asym factor when working).

In the vast majority of the times any new hand dealt in form of two initial cards on each side will entice the formation of very different probabilities: cumulatively the higher two-card points will be almost 2:1 favorite to win the hand. It's like playing two dozens vs one dozen at roulette but by wagering just one unit and being payed 1:1 or 0.95:1 and not 0.5:1.

If we're here is because we are trying to dispute the randomness of the card distributions or any other bac feature that might get us a kind of an edge.
Surely we can't dispute math situations once they have appeared.

Hence a long term winning player is anyone capable to get a greater share of two-card initial points at the right side. Real outcomes are just a by product of such strong math propensity.
On the same token, we know that certain higher points will be so favorite to win up to the point they're eventually unbeatable (natural 9s) and going down with other high points.

It remains to define whether a supposedly random but surely finite card distribution will provide valuable betting spots by taking the problem by two different way of thoughts that actually constitute the same issue.

a- average lenght of uniformed one side favorite segments;

b- average number of gaps between favorite situations happening at the two opposite sides.

Obviously greater is the lenght of uniformed one side situations lower will be the number of gaps and vice versa.

Nonetheless we ought to remember that not everytime a favorite side is going to win the hand, but we have to accept this kind of error as any situation getting nearly 2:1 cumulative odds to win must eventually get a double number of wins than losses.
That means that we're allowed to get a fair amount of wrong "guessing" that we could easily reduce by selecting at most our action.

So a shoe is going to produce several "favorite initial two card states" at various degrees, try to register those situations regardless of the final outcomes.
To get precise registrations, deal the hands as bac rules dictate, nothing will change itlr.

Now in order to find out our possible long term edge we need a further adjustment, that is comparing what could happen more likely in relationship of what really happened in the past taken at different paces.

That's why RVM theories and Smoluchoswki studies help us to 'solve' baccarat.
Any random succession must provide independent results on every step of the original sequence and on every other possible subsequence derived from the original one, that is for each step whatever considered and for every random walk considered a x result will be proportionally equal to the expected probability.

Expected probability? Rattlesnakesh.i.t from the start.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on March 13, 2021, 10:20:01 PM
Thanks AsymBacGuy. Excellent last two posts/thread.

"Third card/s, besides the important asymmetrical hand factor, are just there for entertainment and to confuse things."
:nod:

"Any random succession must provide independent results on every step of the original sequence and on every other possible subsequence derived from the original one, that is for each step whatever considered and for every random walk considered a x result will be proportionally equal to the expected probability."

I like that sentence.

All the best,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 14, 2021, 11:34:28 PM
Thanks again KFB!

There are several experiments to make, one of them is to compare the flow of two-card initial situations with the corresponding flow of actual final results.

From a strict math point of view each hand's winning probability is polarized at the start, only few hands will be affected by the third card/s impact, namely two-card situations being equal and both needing the third card (asym hand rules besides, of course).

Thus we should focus our attention about how many times higher two-card points on the same side will come out in a row on average.
The fact that many two-card higher points won't produce the math results we're looking for shouldn't bother us at all: as long as we are able to catch a superior than expected amount of those spots, itlr the probability to get more W than L is sure as hell.

I mean that we do not want to be right at single spots, just adopting a bet selection at spots where the probability to be right is cumulatively enlarged.
A necessary condition that cannot be applied at every shoe dealt.

In some way after having placed our bet at a given side, we should consider W and L just in terms of superior or inferior two-card point, regardless of the real outcome.


But it's about your second quoted "sentence" that baccarat is scientifically beatable.

A random succession cannot be beaten by any means, there's no fkng way to do it.
Successful long term bac players do not need luck, actually they hate it. And of course recreational players and "I know to win" claimers need it and like it.

The game is beatable as each possible betting spot does not correspond to the expected probability dictating that each hand is independently and randomly placed. (that is EV-)

Simplifying, some portions of most part of the shoes (not every shoe) provides unrandom sequences at different levels. Not every unrandom sequence will get the player a profitable level.
This feature is more evident when considering multiple random walks running on the two-card higher point probability.
Normal players are focused about BP real outcomes, strong bac players do not give a fk about those results, they are willing to risk their money about the probability that something "favourable" is going to happen again or is going to shift. And those probabilties are restricted about finite numbers.

Tomorrow our "bac walker" example.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on March 15, 2021, 03:50:46 AM
Thx AsymBacGuy .

"...Tomorrow our "bac walker" example..."

Looking forward to the Bac Walker


Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on March 15, 2021, 05:52:50 AM
Reference Points, Flow, 3rd Card, Etc., resulting in streaks.

More so in the first half of the shoe then the second half. And more so with the player side than the banker side. But don't take that for players side only, because it will happen to the banker side as well, just more-so with the player side.

Particularly the prelude will be extremely choppy or very much equal for a pretty large section. And then it will generally start out say that the player will have seven and the bank will have six or the player will have a natural or two and the banker lose by one maybe two points each time. Or it could be close, where say the player had 6 and the bank had 5 and pulled the face card or the player had 6 or 7 and the bank had 1 and pulled a 4 or a 5.  And say it was making doubles or ones and twos. And then the player made a third hand which just literally should have lost and just squashed the bank, possibly say the player having a 1 and the bank had a 7 and the player pulled a 7 or 8 for its third card. And then the next hand on the player had zero on the first two cards and the banker had zero also.  Players side pulls a 9 for its third card and the banker side pulls a face card for its third card.  Then every hand after that for another 7, 8 or 9 is either a natural for the player or a very low-scoring first two cards and the bank had a decent hand with its first two cards and the player side surpassed it every time with unbelievable draws or even reducing the banker when the banker should have won the majority of times.  With several of those draws where the bank could only lose by drawing 1 certain card, everything else wins or ties, etc.  Like where the player had a 1 and the bank had a 2 and the player pulls a face card and the banker pulls an 8. 

Happens so many times and yet even the experienced baccarat player seldom sides with this one when it is happening and only says, he can't believe it and the other side has to come on and this will not continue.

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 15, 2021, 11:43:38 PM
Yep, happens so many times but not most of the times. That's why IMO we should make an adjustment at every shoe dealt: is this shoe going to produce an average or higher/lower than average number of  probability spots I'm looking for?

Say we have tested several shoes and the average shifting higher two-card point shows a median=3, that is 3 is the more likely shifting number between two sides (higher two-card points, not final results).
Thus we let go all inferior situations until we'll reach a shifting number of 3.

If the prevalent shifting number is 3 (median) we know that this value will come out more likely in clusters than isolated, there are no other ways around.

Therefore instead of stubbornly hoping that shifting spots will arrest at 3 regardless, we wait until an actual 3 had formed. Then when another shifting spot will reach the 3 value, we bet toward getting another 3.
If we lose we repeat the process, if we win we have to decide what's our goal that is if we want to risk additional money to get subsequent 3s.

Although spotting those shifting spots with a percentage >50% will get us a sure math long term advantage (especially at P side where we need at least 50.1% to win whereas we need at least 51.3% at B side) some problems arise.

The main problem comes out anytime we have made a bet and equal TCPs follow shifting values of 3. Here we are forced to gamble.
Secondly, two-card higher points are cumulatively strong math advantaged to form final winning results but they are susceptible to variance (as Al correctly pointed out in his post).
Third, some profitable opportunities may end up with a tie, thus slowing down further the process.

It's quite interesting to notice that "homogeneous" sources of shuffling (i.e. same shoes shuffled manually or shuffle master machines working at the same deck) tend to provide more constant and regular median values. It's what we name as a "fair or strong" propensity going far from a perfect randomness.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on March 18, 2021, 06:25:08 PM
Greetings Alrelax

on: March 15, 2021, 05:52:50 am »Insert Quote
"...More so in the first half of the shoe then the second half. And more so with the player side than the banker side. But don't take that for players side only, because it will happen to the banker side as well, just more-so with the player side.

Particularly the prelude will be extremely choppy or very much equal for a pretty large section..."
[/b]

In simplistic terms do you feel its partially because starting on the first draw(without knowing burn cards) and obviously unknown order, that all the GOOD cards for Player are still  100%  avail in the shoe, only at this exact moment(GOOD meaning cards more likely to prevent P from drawing 3rd card)?? Coupled with the slight P advantage of having first dibs and said GOOD cards. Obviously after P draws , then B might  make same proclamation depending on the card drawn by P. This very slight and briefly enjoyable stage for P immediately starts diminishing, though minutely,  from the first card onward. Yes?


b]Particularly the prelude will be extremely choppy or very much equal for a pretty large section..."
[/b][/color]
Do you agree this prelude(chop/equal) is also often seen immediately after the streaks are observed. Yes? ??? ???

Thx as always.



All the best,



Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on March 18, 2021, 06:38:30 PM
Hi AsymBacGuy
Your following sentence from (March 15, 2021, 11:43:38 pm) caused a pause.

"...it's quite interesting to notice that "homogeneous" sources of shuffling (i.e. same shoes shuffled manually or shuffle master machines working at the same deck) tend to provide more constant and regular median values. It's what we name as a "fair or strong" propensity going far from a perfect randomness..."

I've evaluated various shuffling methods for other variables. However, I have not considered the affect on Shift Median Values(SMV).

Good ideas/research AsymBacGuy


All the best,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 21, 2021, 12:30:50 AM

Hi KFB!! :-)

Without any shadow of doubt, itlr real results are the by product of key card impact, we could safely assume that bac results are following the general probability propensity to fall here or there and this probability is restricted within finite terms.
There are strong evidences that median values (when properly assessed) of some situations tend to more likely stop after certain values had been reached, despite of the common assumption that every situation will be independent or too slight dependent of the previous one/s.

It's like playing a game where a key card is more likely to fall at a given side, with no guarantees to get a positive outcome, just a greater than expected probability to fall there.
This propensity is more evident at manually shuffled same shoes or SMM shoes, where there's no fkng way to provide a proper random key card distribution.

Worst scenarios come out at HS rooms where any shoe is "fresh".
No worries, even those shoes are producing some exploitable median values, actually there's no way many random walks applied to the BP original sequence will get univocal results for long.
If such thing would happen and considering the average HS player's skills, casinos will go broke very soon.
Fortunately they do not.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on March 21, 2021, 05:27:35 PM
Anything can happen and everything will eventually happen.  There is not a schedule of events that can be guaranteed in anyway whatsoever, contrary to what every mathematical wiz will claim.

The streak of 11 Bankers with 3 Fortune 7s + three 3 card nines over player side of 0's, that occurred after  presentments of 15 singles and doubles; could easily have been a 10 Player streak with four Panda 8s and four 3 card nines over bankers side of 0's after 9 presentments of triple Bankers and triple Prayers as well. Or, how a series of 16 Players and Bankers chop chops will happen after a strong section or equally after ones, twos and threes that were presented in a section.

What I am trying to point out to those that still debate what actually happens will happen, verses it all has to have a schedule able to be figured out.  It does not and nobody will make money at the game Baccarat if you sit down trying to figure out what's going to happen, rather than creating a special way that suits your frame of mind and your emotional status to use a progressive wagering bet, that is in your favor when a certain series of presentments are happening within a section of the shoe.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 21, 2021, 10:21:49 PM
Al, I think yours are points coming from a very experienced player capable to place many bets and many different wagers per shoe.
Quite likely you are one of the best to extract serious money from those rare shoes that come along the way. And knowing when to start or stop the betting, not an easy task when many bets are in order.
That's why I would be glad to play with you. 

Mine is a kind of opposite way to consider the game, I abandoned most side bets a long time ago focusing my attention about BP successions and derived sequences.
Annoyed to hear that baccarat is an unbeatable coin flip game, I devoted a lot of time trying to disprove this (wrong) assumption. Of course not only because a side is more likely than the other one time over 11.62 attempts on average.

Reasons why imo baccarat is a way less random and independent game than what most people think are known.
I'm dead sure others have found the same flaws, of course there's no point to illustrate precisely how to get the best of such flaws.

For that matter, I really do not understand why allegedly winning players like to talk about "discipline".
Either we get a verified edge or we don't, discipline doesn't turn an EV- game into a profitable one.
Probability to win as disciplined players is the same as being undisciplined.
Discipline intended as a way to restrict the field of operation probably helps to lose less but surely doesn't help to win itlr.

I might be the most disciplined poker player on the planet yet I stand no chance to win itlr when playing Phil Ivey.

But if we know to play baccarat with an edge, per every hand played we can toss a dice telling us the amount to bet (from $100 to $600 for example), nothing will change itlr.
It's a whimsical form of flat betting, getting zero impact on long term results. 

I see that some players have the experience to make the proper adjustments according to what the shoe is producing but to test whether they're actually doing right is almost impossible to prove. And anyway difficult to replicate.

Easier to track how given objective betting lines made under specific circumstances will get more wins than losses, that's now that we start to talk about the vulnerability of this game.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on March 22, 2021, 01:14:12 AM
To be clear, I do not concentrate solely on side Wagers but I do like them for certain percentage of my wagers. And when they're hitting, they are hitting and there's no quicker faster way to make some serious money than the side wagers at anywhere up to 200 to 1.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on March 23, 2021, 04:41:42 PM
AsymBacGuy:

"...discipline doesn't turn an EV- game into a profitable one.
Probability to win as disciplined players is the same as being undisciplined.
Discipline intended as a way to restrict the field of operation probably helps to lose less but surely doesn't help to win itlr..."


:thumbsup:
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 24, 2021, 10:30:42 PM
Quote from: alrelax on March 22, 2021, 01:14:12 AM
To be clear, I do not concentrate solely on side Wagers but I do like them for certain percentage of my wagers. And when they're hitting, they are hitting and there's no quicker faster way to make some serious money than the side wagers at anywhere up to 200 to 1.

I know.
Casinos can't refrain to deal shoes producing improbable things, actually they like them from one part but they hate them from the other one.

It's not a coincidence that almost every high stakes room in LV offer very few side bets at their tables: tie and pairs. And very few (or none) no-commission tables involving the F-7.
(Only few HS serious people like to play at "Tiger" tables for obvious reasons...)
Casinos do not want to give high bettors the possibility, albeit remote, to recover losses or to get huge wins at few spots.

Despite that, even ties and pairs can seriously (temporarily) harm a casino.
I remember one occasion where a very HS player cleaned up all the "cranberries" ($25.000 denomination chips) present at the entire room. He was allowed to bet up to $80k at B or P and up to $30k at tie and pairs bets.
Magnificent potential house advantage? Sure. But...

This player not only won almost every B or P wagered on the third part of the shoe, he also managed to get a couple of "dreaming scenarios" as winning his P bet with a 4-4 vs a Banker Q-Q and winning a B bet getting 2-2 vs P showing J-J-A (total amount collected, $80k + $330k + $330k = $740k two times, minus $4k on the second hand due to commission); and anytime he would lose the B/P bet, he won a pair bet.

Naturally itlr such a player is destined to lose millions over millions, yet the house wasn't getting a pleasant time to find cranberries to pay him.
Just hoping he would have come back to play at their premise.

Now let's imagine what are the temporary wins a player like this may get at a no-commission table when a shoe produces four or five F-7 spots payed 40:1. Say where the maximum bet allowed is 5k or 10k.

Very unlikely situations? Surely, but when they happen house must pay the customers.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 24, 2021, 11:34:11 PM
Back to the main topic.

Let's pretend as baccarat as a neutral EV game, either side will draw when getting a point from 0 to 5 getting a perfect equal probability to appear and no vig is applied.

Itlr, we'll expect to get the same number of wins than losses, right?

Technically speaking and whether the cards are properly random shuffled, now the game is a finite (312 or 416 cards are employed) and made by independent binomial successions.

The word "independent" must be intended as the previous card distribution can't get an impact toward getting a different than 50% expected probability on the next BP results.
That is any hand should be "new" the same way any roulette spin is perfect independent from the previous spin.
We could compare more precisely those two different games by pretending roulette wheels as "zero free", even though at baccarat a percentage of hands provide no B or P results.

It's obvious to think that as long as bac (or zero-free roulette) results are randomly and independently dealt, our EV will be zero.

Hence and in order to consider a possible positive edge we must work to find ways capable to dispute one or both of such two features: randomness and independence.

Roulette outcomes are disputable just on the perfect randomness being the independence factor irrelevant.
Baccarat outcomes can be assessed by both qualities: a perfect random shuffle acting at 6 or 8 decks is almost not existent, secondly the independence factor cannot be present whenever the probability to get key cards prompting more likely results cannot be equally balanced at the two sides per each shoe dealt.

More on that tomorrow

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 25, 2021, 10:39:27 PM
At baccarat the probability to get something is partially dependent by the previous situations providing we've properly evaluated the cumulative effect already happened with the general probability.

More deeply we're investigating the process, higher will be our positive expectancy.
Think about 8s and 9s falling pace or valuable third card falling pace going to the Player side.
Naturally and obviously being forced to consider real outcomes, a lot of variance will act along the way.

So it may easily happen that our 9 will combine with an ace or a deuce on the first two cards and that a valuable 6 or 7 as third Player card will produce a worthless point.

Of course itlr such 9s or 6s and 7s as third P card are going to form valuable points.

Actually we shouldn't give a lesser fk about short term less likely situations, even knowing that they could go in our favor despite their "unlikelihood".

What we're really interested about is the estimation of the "paces" involved of such situations, at the same time trying to restrict them as a "whole" as no way 8s and 9s are falling equally on both sides and no way valuable P third cards are constantly falling as fifth card. With every other card situation falling in between.

We've seen that depending upon the random walk applied, the actual card impact over results assumes several different shapes up to the point where univocal albeit unlikely patterns will get the same picture at multiple r.w.'s.

it's about this probability that imo we should set up our strategy.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on March 26, 2021, 04:29:43 PM
Greetings AsymBacGuy

On pg 14 of this thread you stated:

"...Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #205 on: October 14, 2020, 09:49:04 pm »
Quote
Instead of thinking as baccarat as a BP outcomes game, we should consider the average probability to get a shoe composition prompting certain degrees of math advantaged situations..."

?On average how many "math advantaged situations" do you typically find per shoe?

     IOW what is the Mean and Mode # of wagers for you per shoe----"on avg" ??


Thanks in advance,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 30, 2021, 10:32:36 PM
Hi KFB!!

Each bac shoe presents several different multistep math probabilities.
Of course itlr what is math advantaged will overcome what it does not.

If those math advantaged situations will be proportionally placed or, even worse, whether we'd think they are, we're not going to anywhere.

We can beat baccarat consistently only whether math advantaged situations are not fitting to the common independent and random probability provided by the general probability.

The main factor (first step) directing results is the initial two-card point (ITCP): the side getting the higher point will cumulatively get nearly 2:1 odds to win the hand eventually.
A percentage of hands won't get such feature, getting an equal point at both sides.
No worries, itlr such hands will get an almost neutral impact over our results.

Normally card distributions will produce "more likely" back to back ITCPs, as the average key card distribution itlr will make a huge impact over the final two-card point results (not final results!).
It's true that key cards could easily combine with a second low or worthless card, anyway itlr it's way more likely to get a winning point whenever a key card had fallen on that side than to face the opposite situation.
Whenever no key cards are involved in the process, the propensity to get higher ITCPs remain the same at different degrees, meaning it's restricted within measurable (then exploitable) terms.

Thus and from a strict math point of view, whenever we find a better than 50% betting rate of ITCPs we'll get a sure undeniable edge over the house.

After all we just need a better than 50% statistical probability to be "probably" right getting after that a close to 0.65% mathematical probability to be surely right.
And this parameter is measurable.

Say we have found a "decline in probability" factor, meaning that ITCPs streaks are measurable and thus getting finite values well lower than what general probability dictates. (So it would be way more sensible to bet that something will stop than hoping the opposite situation will stand for long).
 
Now let's pretend casinos are aware of that, trying to voluntarily mix cards in order to get long clustered ITCPs not fitting a more likely natural course.

Really?

First, most HS players do not follow a given strategy, they just like to bet univocal betting lines and long ITCPs situations endorse such probability. Hence such shoes will get a greater damage for the casinos than normal distributed shoes.

Secondly, HS bac players and amateurs are more likely to be thrilled by third card impact than what serious players are, forgetting that what is underdog remains underdog.

Knowing that ITCPs pace is following precise lines, it's time to consider third card impact random walks.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 30, 2021, 11:34:05 PM
Run several shoes and register how many times ITCPs will come out in a row and by which degree.
No matter how many cards you'll burn after each hand (as from 0 to 2 additional cards are whimsically employed per each hand dealt in the real world), itlr some values will be more likely than others.

After spotting what's more likely to happen, don't give a fk about real results as itlr math advantaged situations must overcome the underdog counterpart.

Therefore we shuldn't be interested about REAL outcomes but just about the potential math power average distribution.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on April 04, 2021, 10:21:43 PM
Mathematical system to get a sure edge over the house

For a moment forget the importance to get an edge by flat betting, let's try to implement a MM capable to get the best of it without crossing the unfavourable circumstance to lose our entire bankroll.

We consider our action restricted within a virtually endless series of seven separated betting cycles, getting each a given amount of profit or loss units. Ties are considered neutral.
Every 7-hand cycle step is made by betting the same amount (flat betting), meaning there are no bet increases before each cycle ended up.

Thus we start the first 7 cycle bet by wagering one unit by flat betting, at the end we'll get:

- 7 units won (7 W and 0 L)

- 5 units won (6 W and 1 L)

- 3 units won (5 W and 2 L)

- 1 unit won (4 W and 3 L)

- 1 unit lost  (4 L and 3 W)

- 3 units lost (5 L and 2 W)

- 5 units lost (6 L and 1 W)

- 7 units lost (7 L and 0 W)

Naturally those W/L percentages are the same per every 7 hand betting cycle, regardeless of how much we bet (obviously)

If after the first 7 bets cycle we'll get a profit, we repeat the process by wagering the same initial amount and so on.
Whether we are losing from 1 to 7 bets (meaning we got more Ls than Ws at various degrees) we'll set up our new standard bet by adding one unit to the overall deficit.
For example, if we had lost 5 bets, our new bet will be 6 units employed in the new 7-hand cycle until we'll get a one unit profit within the same 7 betting range.
If we have the misfortune to not be able to recover previous losses, for the next 7 hand cycle we'll add one unit to the new deficit.

Say after our first 5 L situation we bet 6 units getting another 3 L, thus we'll be behind of 5 units plus 6x3=18 units totalling a -23 units deficit. Thus now our new bet for the next 7 hand cycle will be 24 units.
And so on. Up to the point that we'll be sure to recover ALL previous losses and getting one unit profit.

Math aspects

Even though we could be the worst bac guessers in the universe, per every 7-hand cycle bet our winning probability will be 72.66% as among the possible 128 WL patterns, 93 of them will be winners and just 35 losers (as we'd stop the betting after getting a W amount overcoming Ls).

Notice that differently to a common martingale, those bets are less susceptible to the negative variance and table limits, as they are assessed by 7-hand same amount steps.

This system is so powerful and math wise that just 2 or 3 people playing as a team will get enormous profits, after all itlr a 72.66% probability cannot be wrong for long.

Anyway most players like to play on their own and it's easy to assume that this system could get the bets so high to make in jeopardy everyone's bankroll and peace of mind.

Therefore we want to introduce the "scale reduction" factor, an important strategic tool capable to control the variance and at the same time keeping the benefit of a math advantage.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on April 05, 2021, 04:59:57 PM
Hi AsymBacGuy

In your first post on 3/30 you state:

"...Normally card distributions will produce "more likely" back to back ITCPs, as the average key card distribution itlr will make a huge impact over the final two-card point results (not final results!).
It's true that key cards could easily combine with a second low or worthless card, anyway itlr it's way more likely to get a winning point whenever a key card had fallen on that side than to face the opposite situation.
Whenever no key cards are involved in the process, the propensity to get higher ITCPs remain the same at different degrees, meaning it's restricted within measurable (then exploitable) terms...."

To clarify: When you say "KEY CARDS" do you indeed mean 8/9 as in main cards to keep P from drawing. OR Do you mean key cards as in side-favoring cards such as 6/4  that may or may not keep P from drawing? thx in advance .

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


AsymBacGuy: "...Whenever no key cards are involved in the process, the propensity to get higher ITCPs remain the same at different degrees..."

kfb:
     Respectfully, my opinion differs on this---OR--- maybe Im just not understanding what youre saying. Can u elaborate a little more on this sentence.

Thx/ Continued Success,

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on April 05, 2021, 09:25:21 PM
Hi KFB!

As Key cards I'm referring to 9s, 8s, 7s and 6s.

.Whenever no key cards are involved in the process, the propensity to get higher ITCPs remain the same at different degrees..."

I mean that if many key cards are removed from the deck or not available for the moment, the average card distribution slight privileges ITCPs streaks of given lenght, even though card combinations are virtually "infinite".
It's a concept very difficult to be grasped by common players, way too focused about the actual outcome and not about the overall probability's plan.
Not mentioning that quite often key cards are interfering with this propensity, we have 4 classes of key cards and 5 classes of non key cards (zero value cards considered as neutral cards).

Btw, I'm interested to know your opinion about this, thanks in advance!

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: RickK on April 06, 2021, 03:56:52 PM
as

"Say after our first 5 L situation we bet 6 units getting another 3 L, thus we'll be behind of 5 units plus 6x3=18 units totalling a -23 units deficit. Thus now our new bet for the next 7 hand cycle will be 24 units.
And so on. Up to the point that we'll be sure to recover ALL previous losses and getting one unit profit."

So in the first 7 hand sequence you have a 5 net L (6L-1W) @ 1 unit bets = 5 unit Loss.
The next 7 hand sequence goes to 6 units per hand ? and with 3 net L (5L-2W) = 18 unit loss?
Then the bets go to 24 units per hand for the next 7 hand sequence ?

Rick
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on April 07, 2021, 04:09:22 PM
Good Day AsymBacGuy
Thx for your reply to my followup question.

Asym:
Hi KFB!

As Key cards I'm referring to 9s, 8s, 7s and 6s.

.Whenever no key cards are involved in the process, the propensity to get higher ITCPs remain the same at different degrees..."





     kfb initial followup question/statement:
     kfb:
     Respectfully, my opinion differs on this---OR--- maybe Im just not understanding what youre saying. Can u elaborate a
     little more on this sentence.


Asym:Btw, I'm interested to know your opinion about this, thanks in advance!

as.

   

     kfb

     IMO the propensity to get higher ITCPs does NOT remain the same and does indeed change if no key cards (6,7,8,9) were
     involved in the process.

     My initial thought was that lets say : KCR=KeyCardRemaing = x, and Total Cards Remaining(TCR)=y , then our kcr/tcr
     ratio at this given point in the shoe is lets say x/y. We don't know exactly the numerical value of x or y. However, the next
     hands' cards are A,B,C,D. You/I are at the table together and had both just departed to the restroom and upon our return
     asked the dealer: How many cards were dealt in that most recent hand? Four. We follow up with : Did cards A,B,C,or D
     have a value of 6,7,8, or 9?  Dealer: No.

     Thus my aforementioned statement was that although we don't know the values for ABCD(ignore which side won or any
     other implications),
     we do know that our KCR/TCR=x/y ratio has changed from x/y  to x/y-4, and we also obviously can't be
    100% certain of how many, if any,  KCR remain(0,16,12...etc). 
     
     So my thinking is the propensity to get higher ITCPs does not remain the same and has indeed changed(albeit very
     slightly). Obviously many other factors we could take into consideration but for simple illustrative purposes that is the gist
     of my previous inquiry.


Continue Success,



Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on April 07, 2021, 10:41:29 PM
Thanks KFB for your explanation.

I'll try to simplify the issue.
What are the original BP sequences capable to get long and univocal both original and derived outcomes per every shoe dealt?

Just two.

Long BP chops and long consecutive streaks, both being quite unlikely to happen.

We need just a single hand at various degrees not belonging to those patterns to get a long term edge and at the same time we'll fear that just that hand will be unlikely prolong an already unlikely pattern to get us losers.

Long term data show that the probability to get ITCPs or key cards falling at the same side for long are surpassed by the opposite probability.
The only reason that come off of our minds is that itlr both key cards and non key cards privilege a kind of chopping probability.

Thus imo it's not about how much the chopping propensity come out but about how many times it will come out per every shoe played.

@Rickk: I'll reply you tomorrow.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on April 08, 2021, 03:58:27 PM
Thx AsymBacGuy for elaboration.

What are the original BP sequences capable to get long and univocal both original and derived outcomes per every shoe dealt?

Just two.

Long BP chops and long consecutive streaks, both being quite unlikely to happen.

     I agree. Yet that is what a majority of players are primarily waiting for in every shoe. IMO the tote board design contributes alot to this pursuit and anticipation.  It would be interesting to see the change in betting patterns/habits if all of a sudden the design of the tote board changed from the Up-down/L-R layout that is currently utilized.


Thus imo it's not about how much the chopping propensity come out but about how many times it will come out per every shoe played.

     Good statement.


Thx as always,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on April 08, 2021, 09:06:41 PM
Quote from: RickK on April 06, 2021, 03:56:52 PM

So in the first 7 hand sequence you have a 5 net L (6L-1W) @ 1 unit bets = 5 unit Loss.
The next 7 hand sequence goes to 6 units per hand ? and with 3 net L (5L-2W) = 18 unit loss?
Then the bets go to 24 units per hand for the next 7 hand sequence ?

Rick

Basically you flat bet 7 hands cycles, as long as you get a profit the betting unit remains 1.
Whether after flat betting 7 hands at the end you are behind of 1, 3, 5 or 7 units, you increase the bet on the next 7-hand cycle by adding 1 unit to the previous deficit until you recover everything (so you stop to bet the entire cycle then restarting to bet 1 unit 7 times.

In the example, after the first cycle you are losing 5 bets, so on the next cycle you'll bet 6 units each hand until you recover the previous deficit.
Unluckily we got more losses than wins (5L and 2W) totalling 3 x 6 unit = 18 unit loss, so next bet will be (5 + 18 + 1 = 24 betting unit). Yes, we'll stay at this 24 unit level until we'll be ahead of just one hand capable to recover all the losses accumulated at every previous cycles. 
And so on.

The beauty of this system is that you can win even at a percentage of losing cycles adding to your 50% a 22.66%.
In fact losing sequences as WLLLLLL or WLWLLLL or LLWWWLL and some others become winning sequences.

In the example we played 14 hands, getting 3 W and 11 L, not an awesome flat betting strategy (lol) but we know it could happen.

Let's imagine a very bad scenario.

First cycle (1 unit) = 7 L  0 W  unit loss: 7; next bet 8 unit (7 + 1)

Second cycle (8 unit) = 6 L  1 W unit loss: 40; next bet 49 (8 + 40 + 1)

Third cycle (49 unit) = 6 L 1 W  unit loss: 245; next bet 294 (8 + 40 + 245 + 1)

After having played 21 hands, we got 19 L and just 2 W (I discarded the lucky scenario where second and third cycles may get a W as first hand totally erasing the deficit). Our unit increased almost 300 times...
A 4.12 sigma is quite uncommon to cross but it may happen. Not mentioning that half bets are made on B side, thus we need to increase the bets by adding some units to cover the vig.

To reduce the progressive betting impact, we might start the real betting after any losing cycle or even after two consecutive losing cycles, for example.

It's quite interesting to notice that 3 players betting simultaneously the three derived roads in selective situations can't reach huge negative deviations as the possible deficit is spread between them.
Situations where all three roads provide simultaneously many univocal lines (yet assuming them as negative) are very rare, if not anybody would be millionaire very fast.

Take care!

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on April 08, 2021, 09:09:11 PM
KFB and Rickk,
if you wish to expand your thoughts here you are very welcome!  :thumbsup:

Have a nice day!

as.

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on April 17, 2021, 04:18:13 AM
Hi AsymBacGuy

Thx for clarifying RickK inquiry as I also had questions re:  the levels above that 2nd tier if one is losing after the first tier.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

I agree with your concluding comments on the 7-tier method:

AsymBacGuy

Math aspects

Even though we could be the worst bac guessers in the universe, per every 7-hand cycle bet our winning probability will be 72.66% as among the possible 128 WL patterns, 93 of them will be winners and just 35 losers (as we'd stop the betting after getting a W amount overcoming Ls).

Notice that differently to a common martingale, those bets are less susceptible to the negative variance and table limits, as they are assessed by 7-hand same amount steps.

This system is so powerful and math wise that just 2 or 3 people playing as a team will get enormous profits, after all itlr a 72.66% probability cannot be wrong for long.

Anyway most players like to play on their own and it's easy to assume that this system could get the bets so high to make in jeopardy everyone's bankroll and peace of mind.

Therefore we want to introduce the "scale reduction" factor, an important strategic tool capable to control the variance and at the same time keeping the benefit of a math advantage.

_________________________________________________________

I guess it goes back to: What Is Ones Objective.

In other words how do we want to slice our buyin, how often can we tolerate losing buyin, how much do we want to earn as a f(x) of buyin, as a f(x) of bankroll,...etc.

Anyway most players like to play on their own and it's easy to assume that this system could get the bets so high to make in jeopardy everyone's bankroll and peace of mind.


I think we can expect a majority of  Negpro methods will eventually escalate bets too high (reach Tmax, bust buyin,...etc) --its just that this particular method seems to escalate immediately. However, at first glance I do agree it will handle most shoes by the 2nd or 3rd stage. So the abrupt increase in wager size will in all likelihood be less damaging to buyin than we would initially guess. My main reservation would be not knowing if that really bad (-3.5SD) shoe was the very first one.

I like the beginning stages and the idea of 1/7ths at the initial level. However, it abruptly shifts from a low/slow curve to the trajectory of a rocket.

I've never played this method  so just a quick thoughts/opinion. If I was required to do a similar Negpro my personal preference would be to add a few more tiers to that 7-wager Level 1, and  prior to the recoup-or-throw the towel in  stage(s) .

How many Tiers? Levels? This is where it gets back to my initial sentence:

What Is Ones Objective.

Asym, do you play a similar approach. Do you have any data from others that have played it? ROI?

How would you improve it?

Many Thanks,



Its not how fast you win, its how well you win fast
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on April 18, 2021, 09:53:55 PM
Thanks KFB for your comments!

Only a team could approach the 7-tier system in the original aggressive version having a "leader" instructing when to bet and sharing an enormous bankroll.
Such a team work very well at online sites where different result lines are put together in order to get supposedly "more likely" betting spots (by a pc software, of course).

Even tough bets can theorically (and practically) reach huge values, this system is mathematically sound as per every 7-tier played the math probability to win is 72.66%.

I do not use this system as I'm a strict flat betting aficionado and HS live player (and mentor), anyway the 7-tier concept is quite interesting as it doesn't take into account single results but successions of 7-hand outcomes attacked by the same bet amount.

We know that itlr among the 128 possible WL patterns, each of them will present sooner or later, besides a "general" math probability to succeed it's just the relative frequency of every single WL pattern that cares.

There are several steps to assess whether we're doing good for a reason or by luck.

Best example is to estimate the most deviated 2/128 WL patterns, that is WWWWWWW and LLLLLLL patterns.
If after a given amount of shoes tested the former number will overcome the latter, we got a sure sign that the probability to be right is more significant than otherwise.

The same about less deviated patterns as those containing 6 W or L and specular 1 L or W and so on.

Obviously when considering an odd number of patterns, most winning situations come out after knowing the very first W or L result nature as there are more winning patterns starting with a W than the opposite situation.
If we'd think to get a long term winning system we should put a lot of emphasis about this very first bet.

Now say that we do not want to set up or belong to a team but trying to get the best of it by not  risking a lot of money.

Whenever the 7-tier system will dictate to bet a progressive X amount, we'll reduce it by a 5:1 scale.
Therefore after the first 7-tier betting series, we'll get those scenarios:

-1 unit loss= next betting amount 1

-3 unit loss= next betting amount 1

- 5 unit loss= nerxt betting amount 1.1

- 7 unit loss = next betting amount 1.4

It's true that now a very first bet (and other profitable conditions) won't erase the deficit by just a +1 W step over a L counterpart at any degree considered, but it's altogether true that mathematically we'll need a way lesser amount of profitable patterns to get the same erasing deficit.

Say tonight we're not guessing a fkng nothing, thus getting 5 more losses at 1.4 betting amount level.
Overall we got 2 wins and 12 losses (7 L and 0 W at 1 unit level and 2 W and 5 L at 1.4 unit level).
Thus we are behind 7 units plus 1.4 x 3 units = 7 + 4.2 units = 11.2 units.

Next bet will be 11.2 : 0.5 = 2.24 unit.

We see that even after a very unlikely 2:12 WL ratio our next bet will be just set up at 2.24 unit.

Now we need just a lesser amount of WL patterns than math expected to erase the deficit (even adding up the vig impact to losses), actually a wise flat betting approach cannot reach strong LW deviations by any means.

Nonetheless, even a "I do not care about what the shoe is producing" strategy (not recommended) will get a proper math advnantage itlr.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on April 19, 2021, 04:16:22 PM
Good Morning  Asym/thx

"...Only a team could approach the 7-tier system in the original aggressive version having a "leader" instructing when to bet and sharing an enormous bankroll..."

Yes, we might could get a 3-member team to agree on the benefits of diluting the effects of variance across our wagers/buyin.  However, that same 3-member team may not be as enthused when it came time to split the profits (33/33/33%). :)
Anyway, i get your point.

Asym: "...Obviously when considering an odd number of patterns, most winning situations come out after knowing the very first W or L result nature as there are more winning patterns starting with a W than the opposite situation..."

     *Im not sure what you mean by this phrase.


Continued Success,

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: argalim147 on April 19, 2021, 04:19:34 PM
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on April 18, 2021, 09:53:55 PM
Thanks KFB for your comments!

Only a team could approach the 7-tier system in the original aggressive version having a "leader" instructing when to bet and sharing an enormous bankroll.
Such a team work very well at online sites where different result lines are put together in order to get supposedly "more likely" betting spots (by a pc software, of course).

Even tough bets can theorically (and practically) reach huge values, this system is mathematically sound as per every 7-tier played the math probability to win is 72.66%.

I do not use this system as I'm a strict flat betting aficionado and HS live player (and mentor), anyway the 7-tier concept is quite interesting as it doesn't take into account single results but successions of 7-hand outcomes attacked by the same bet amount.

We know that itlr among the 128 possible WL patterns, each of them will present sooner or later, besides a "general" math probability to succeed it's just the relative frequency of every single WL pattern that cares.

There are several steps to assess whether we're doing good for a reason or by luck.

Best example is to estimate the most deviated 2/128 WL patterns, that is WWWWWWW and LLLLLLL patterns.
If after a given amount of shoes tested the former number will overcome the latter, we got a sure sign that the probability to be right is more significant than otherwise.

The same about less deviated patterns as those containing 6 W or L and specular 1 L or W and so on.

Obviously when considering an odd number of patterns, most winning situations come out after knowing the very first W or L result nature as there are more winning patterns starting with a W than the opposite situation.
If we'd think to get a long term winning system we should put a lot of emphasis about this very first bet.

Now say that we do not want to set up or belong to a team but trying to get the best of it by not  risking a lot of money.

Whenever the 7-tier system will dictate to bet a progressive X amount, we'll reduce it by a 5:1 scale.
Therefore after the first 7-tier betting series, we'll get those scenarios:

-1 unit loss= next betting amount 1

-3 unit loss= next betting amount 1

- 5 unit loss= nerxt betting amount 1.1

- 7 unit loss = next betting amount 1.4

It's true that now a very first bet (and other profitable conditions) won't erase the deficit by just a +1 W step over a L counterpart at any degree considered, but it's altogether true that mathematically we'll need a way lesser amount of profitable patterns to get the same erasing deficit.

Say tonight we're not guessing a fkng nothing, thus getting 5 more losses at 1.4 betting amount level.
Overall we got 2 wins and 12 losses (7 L and 0 W at 1 unit level and 2 W and 5 L at 1.4 unit level).
Thus we are behind 7 units plus 1.4 x 3 units = 7 + 4.2 units = 11.2 units.

Next bet will be 11.2 : 0.5 = 2.24 unit.

We see that even after a very unlikely 2:12 WL ratio our next bet will be just set up at 2.24 unit.

Now we need just a lesser amount of WL patterns than math expected to erase the deficit (even adding up the vig impact to losses), actually a wise flat betting approach cannot reach strong LW deviations by any means.

Nonetheless, even a "I do not care about what the shoe is producing" strategy (not recommended) will get a proper math advnantage itlr.

as.

Hello, AsymBacGuy!

You said you are strict flat betting.  Give, please, an advice in which direction need to think to create a winning flat betting scheme.  You are long term winning flat bettor, yes?
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on April 20, 2021, 08:51:02 PM
Quote from: KungFuBac on April 19, 2021, 04:16:22 PM

Asym: "...Obviously when considering an odd number of patterns, most winning situations come out after knowing the very first W or L result nature as there are more winning patterns starting with a W than the opposite situation..."

     *Im not sure what you mean by this phrase.


Hi KFB!

You are right, I've badly expressed my point.

At 7-tier betting cycles, the break even final result cannot happen, we'll get +1, +3, +5 and +7 and the specular losing counterpart.
Whenever a new 7-tier cycle begins with a W, odds are more favourable to get a final result presenting more Ws than Ls. Meaning that this specific cycle itlr will produce a positive situation, an important issue to be considered when adopting this system or some strategies derivating from it.

Itlr and without a proper advantage, 7-tier final cycles will end up equally between winning cycles and losing cycles.
It's intuitive to think that when a cycle starts with a L, we'll need a higher amount of Ws than Ls to finish a cycle as a winning one.
In some way this system focus about the probability to get a W at the very first hand of a new cycle.
If we're adopting a less aggressive procedure, this feature is even more important as at some time we need winning final cycles to quickly or slowly cancel the previous deficit.

I hope to have explained better the issue.

Take care

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on April 20, 2021, 11:36:35 PM
Quote from: argalim147 on April 19, 2021, 04:19:34 PM
Hello, AsymBacGuy!

You said you are strict flat betting.  Give, please, an advice in which direction need to think to create a winning flat betting scheme.  You are long term winning flat bettor, yes?

Hi argalim!!

The reasons why only a flat betting approach should get a long term advantage are quite simple to understand.

- any bet is supposed to be EV-, thus no matter how deep we make progressive bets our EV will be negative.
For that matter, let experts to show me how to beat even a fair 50/50 game as a classic coin flip succession is.

- if progressive betting aficionados think that at certain points something must be more likely than the opposite situation, why not focusing the action about those (maybe rare) spots without risking money previously?

- EV- or EV neutral games applied to a random source cannot be beaten itlr by any means.   
Fortunately baccarat is not so randomly placed and/or so independently dealt as math 'experts' keep to say.

Now let's see the reasons why this game could be beatable by flat betting (for the good peace of mind of those who cannot think this is possibile):

- most part of shoes are not properly shuffled, meaning that key cards are more or less concentrated at some parts of the shoe way higher than what a perfect shuffling will do.
Whenever key cards are quite concentrated along some portions of the shoe, more likely outcomes come out even in term of whimsical actual results.
We play probabilities and not short term actual results.

- at real live baccarat shoes, the sym/asym (91.4/8.6) ratio produces sd values quite different than at a random and perfect independent model.

- no way each bac hand is dealt by the common 50.68/49.32 percentage (ties ignored). BP hands probability moves from 0.5/0.5 (sym hands) to 0.5793/0.4207 (average asym strenght hands), thus our bets will get either a neutral (and fair) EV or a strong positive or strong negative EV.
Of course such discrepancy definitely will happen more likely when key cards are more diluted than concentrated.

Practical issues

The probability to be right or wrong moves around the actual key cards distribution.
Very slight key card concentrations will make the game quite unbeatable, as hands are more likely to form whimsical results as few hands are strongly favorite at the start to win the final hand.
We do not need to classify key cards, itlr most shoes will form patterns eliciting more likely patterns, especially when considering outcomes at different paces.

For example, consider the three derived roads making an univocal red or blue outcome. Those are rare situations, mostly when long hopping lines or long consecutive streaks or back to back streaks happen.
Classify them and try to figure out how many times r or b streaks will stand or shift to the opposite situation per any shoe played and per each level considered.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on April 21, 2021, 12:46:01 AM
BTW, it seems that some so called "math experts" do not like to have people posting that bac could be beatable, labelling them as "spammers".

Let's see how this stuff evolves, it could happen I have some stories to tell about them. Specifically regarding Vegas/Henderson (NV) areas.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on April 21, 2021, 07:41:46 PM
Hi AsymBacGuy

I hope to have explained better the issue.

Yes, perfect, & as always thanks for elaboration.

Cheers,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on April 25, 2021, 10:01:09 PM
Actual distributions of the outcomes

Imo winning by flat betting means that after long trials our strategy got more winning clusters than expected and not because the strategy tried to contain in some way the losing clusters' counterpart, even though the latter could be inferior in number.

Therefore our long samples should have provided us more W doubles than W singles, more W triples than W doubles, more W 4+ streaks than W triples and so on.
Despite that, it happens that baccarat outcomes whatever considered but filtered by a strategy dictating to bet very few hands per shoe and not per every shoe, will show two very different profitable peaks: the double W clusters opposed to single W spots and multiple long W clusters often prolonging up to the end of the (playable) shoe.

Now we should choose either about the larger probability and less affected by variance probability to get more W doubles (WW) than WL spots or to play a kind of "sky's the limit" approach hoping that sooner or later we will catch the shoe forming a univocal series of winning spots.
Of course as long as we've ascertained that the number of shoes getting this "all winning succession" feature will outclass the WL or L counterpart considered at various levels.

In other words, do we prefer to get more stable wins or to go for the all wins "jackpot"?
Or maybe a mix of two, thus lowering a lot the standard bet and making progressive bets after a first win was secured?

We see that in either scenarios we are not risking much money per each shoe played as after losing the first step we're not interested to prolong our action. That's why a sudden losing spot or losing stop needs several hands to form another possible profitable opportunity. Surely denying the "all winning situation" already depicted.

How many hands should we play per shoe to get the most of the above features?

Of course the "shoe presenting all winning spots" must be restricted within a relatively short bets amount, we've found out that on average one hand per every ten hands dealt are a good approximated ratio to look for.
That is 7-8 bets per playable shoe, of course this being an expression of average outcomes' distribution.
Naturally more often than not we need just one betting spot to be ahead when searching at a simple WW spot.
Losing spots coming out along the way (especially at the very first situation considered) reduce such ratio up to the point that we can simply get rid of that shoe without losing a dime.

Think that if a given strategy can get 7-8 consecutive wins after 70-75 resolved hands, such strategy can't start with a L.
After all gambling world is made by streaks whatever considered.

Btw, when talking about baccarat do not trust so called "math experts" by any means, they do not know a fkng nothing about this game other than B and P long term probability.
Kashiwagi was stopped to play after a bad losing sequence but being in the positive field nonetheless, why stopping a super HS player knowing he was math entitled to lose huge sums?

Whenever huge sums are allowed to be wagered and smart players are betting, no casino is so sure about the math edge they're taking advantage of. Even after dozens and dozens of shoes played.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on April 26, 2021, 03:07:50 AM
Hi AsymBacGuy
Good post above.

I like this statement: "...Imo winning by flat betting means that after long trials our strategy got more winning clusters than expected and not because the strategy tried to contain in some way the losing clusters' counterpart, even though the latter could be inferior in number..."

AS: "...How many hands should we play per shoe to get the most of the above features?

Of course the "shoe presenting all winning spots" must be restricted within a relatively short bets amount, we've found out that on average one hand per every ten hands dealt are a good approximated ratio to look for.
That is 7-8 bets per playable shoe, of course this being an expression of average outcomes' distribution.
Naturally more often than not we need just one betting spot to be ahead when searching at a simple WW spot.
Losing spots coming out along the way (especially at the very first situation considered) reduce such ratio up to the point that we can simply get rid of that shoe without losing a dime..."[/b]

re:  The Bold Part.   I think I understand, however, could you give a specific example for the sentence in BOLD,

Thank you

Continued Success,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on April 26, 2021, 10:33:07 PM
Hello KFB!

Generally speaking and assuming a low number of bets per shoe getting a diluted pace, each shoe presents more W streaks and L streaks than W/L or L/W alternate patterns.
If we decide to make 7 bets per shoe (by flat betting), every shoe starting with a L will produce more final losing shoes than winning shoes. And the same is oppositely true about shoes starting with a W.
In addition, it's obvious to notice that shoes starting with a L cannot produce all winning shoes as that L must be incorporated among our 7-hand betting streak. That is we're totally erasing the probability to get one of the two peaks (albeit the all winning shoe is a relative distant probability).

Finally, discarding from the play those shoes starting with a L will enlarge the future probability to encounter all wins shoes.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on April 28, 2021, 07:09:55 AM
Thx AsymBacGuy for explaining in reply to my Q

"..if we decide to make 7 bets per shoe (by flat betting), every shoe starting with a L will produce more final losing shoes than winning shoes. And the same is oppositely true about shoes starting with a W.
In addition, it's obvious to notice that shoes starting with a L cannot produce all winning shoes as that L must be incorporated among our 7-hand betting streak..."

kfb
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 04, 2021, 10:52:23 PM
Taking advantage of bac features

1- Most bac shoes are not perfect randomly shuffled.

2- Bac probabilities are suddendly moving from a kind of many 50/50 propositions to rare single strong shifted 57.93/49.07 situations (asym hands favoring B).

3- Key card average distribution favors a sort of "hopping" game, that is there's a general slight propensity to get the opposite outcome already happened.

4- Every shoe is a finite world apart, especially when taking into consideration the #1 point.

Let's see each of those points.

1.
Many times shoes are shuffled after a previous card distribution was made, yet it's very difficult to provide a strong new random card distribution.
It's quite interesting to notice that poor shuffled shoes tend to provide strong opposite patterns than what the previous one had provided. And we get at least 4 simple roads to assess this probability.
This feature is particularly reliable when Shuffle Master Machines are used and at online sites where more often than not shoes are ridiculously bad shuffled.

2.
There's no point to be hugely right for very few hands happening along the shoe whenever the payment is strongly shifted to the opposite site, unless we have reasons to do that.
I mean that every next hand will get a general 8.6% probability to get a 0.95:1 payment at one side and a 91.4% probability to get a 1:1 fair return at the other one.
Itlr and knowing the different payment between the two sides, symmetrical situations do not favor Banker so much as what the same sym situations can at Player side.

3.
Whenever an asym strenght won't act along the way (no matter what the actual result is but still considering it in term of patterns' lenght), the propensity to get the opposite side will get its full power.
Toss into the trash the asym hands and compare bac results with roulette results and you'll get the picture.

4.
Players who like to consider shoes as single entities are more likely to be long term winners.
Wait, I'm not endorsing the mere trend following idea, yet what did happen can show up consecutively or not but what didn't come out could be silent for the entire shoe.
A thing I'll discuss next time.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on May 05, 2021, 05:08:47 PM
Hi AsymBacGuy--Excellent post as usual.

Re your following paragraph:

"...1.
Many times shoes are shuffled after a previous card distribution was made, yet it's very difficult to provide a strong new random card distribution.
It's quite interesting to notice that poor shuffled shoes tend to provide strong opposite patterns than what the previous one had provided. And we get at least 4 simple roads to assess this probability.
This feature is particularly reliable when Shuffle Master Machines are used and at online sites where more often than not shoes are ridiculously bad shuffled. ..."

Q with an example:

Lets say u approach the bac table for the first shoe of the morning. The dealer is hurriedly doing the pre game rituals to open the table and you hear the dealer say to the pit boss "wait, hold on i accidentally did a blackjack shuffle" and the pit boss responds "oh just Fxxx It , just get the game started,  youre already 10 mins late."

I don't know but Im assuming the shuffler has a button one can push for Bac shuffle, BJ shuffle, Mississippi Stud shuffle, XYZ game shuffle,....etc. Again, I do not know.


AsymBacGuy, What type of outcomes would you wager for in that type of shoe? vs a typically-shuffled Bac shoe???


Thanks in advance for your opinion.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on May 08, 2021, 10:02:54 PM
Hi AsymBacGuy

re: your following statement from a previous post in this thread:

"...Technically speaking and whether the cards are properly random shuffled, now the game is a finite (312 or 416 cards are employed) and made by independent binomial successions...."


? Do you approach a six-deck shoe different than an eight-deck ? How?
Any opinions on same-side streaks or chops comparison from a shoe length perspective? 

When comparing the two shoes do you prefer one over the other for your most-commonly utilized wagering approach?

Thx
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 09, 2021, 10:35:17 PM
Quote from: KungFuBac on May 05, 2021, 05:08:47 PM
Hi AsymBacGuy--Excellent post as usual.

Re your following paragraph:

"...1.
Many times shoes are shuffled after a previous card distribution was made, yet it's very difficult to provide a strong new random card distribution.
It's quite interesting to notice that poor shuffled shoes tend to provide strong opposite patterns than what the previous one had provided. And we get at least 4 simple roads to assess this probability.
This feature is particularly reliable when Shuffle Master Machines are used and at online sites where more often than not shoes are ridiculously bad shuffled. ..."

Q with an example:

Lets say u approach the bac table for the first shoe of the morning. The dealer is hurriedly doing the pre game rituals to open the table and you hear the dealer say to the pit boss "wait, hold on i accidentally did a blackjack shuffle" and the pit boss responds "oh just Fxxx It , just get the game started,  youre already 10 mins late."

I don't know but Im assuming the shuffler has a button one can push for Bac shuffle, BJ shuffle, Mississippi Stud shuffle, XYZ game shuffle,....etc. Again, I do not know.


AsymBacGuy, What type of outcomes would you wager for in that type of shoe? vs a typically-shuffled Bac shoe???


Thanks in advance for your opinion.

Hi KFB and thanks!

Casinos have no interest to shuffle bac cards in a certain way, most money won or lost comes out from new fresh shoes offered at HS rooms where no previous information was allowed.
And vast majority of HS players like to play for clusters of repetitive outcomes, a thing very different to every other gambling game where some situations could be players' polarized by math issues.

Thus it's casinos' interest to make the outcomes more randomly as possible, a thing that from one part will enlarge the positive casino's EV and from the other one will make more guessable some pattern situations as long as consecutive shoes are coming out under the same shuffling circumstances.

Probability to get either A or B results is way more restricted and polarized than what a fkng biased coin flip dictates.
For good peace of fkng math losers that cannot see when A will be more likely than B and vice versa. Fk them.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 09, 2021, 11:39:45 PM
Quote from: KungFuBac on May 08, 2021, 10:02:54 PM
Hi AsymBacGuy

re: your following statement from a previous post in this thread:

"...Technically speaking and whether the cards are properly random shuffled, now the game is a finite (312 or 416 cards are employed) and made by independent binomial successions...."


? Do you approach a six-deck shoe different than an eight-deck ? How?
Any opinions on same-side streaks or chops comparison from a shoe length perspective? 

When comparing the two shoes do you prefer one over the other for your most-commonly utilized wagering approach?

Thx

The lesser the amount of cards are involved in the process, higher will be the probability to get univocal patterns to bet into as the room to get a kind of balanced situations are going against the odds.
It's a sure fact that casinos using 6-decks are getting inferior profits than casinos offering 8-deck shoes.
A possible reason is because casinos using 6-deck shoes offer fewer side bets than 8-deck casinos.

Anyway, yes, I'm sure 6-deck shoes are getting more profitable situations than 8-deck shoes.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on May 10, 2021, 01:23:13 AM
Thx AsymBacGuy for your reply. I agree.



Continued Success,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on May 10, 2021, 01:38:39 AM
Hi a.s.
I appreciate u offering an opinion on my thoughts/inquiry. I know my example didn't provide alot of info.
That event actually happened. It was a crazy shoe/session not only from the pre-game ritual but the dealer was new and made two misdraws during the shoe,...etc. It was years ago at a cas in Nevada approx 40 mins off the strip.

"Lets say u approach the bac table for the first shoe of the morning. The dealer is hurriedly doing the pre game rituals to open the table and you hear the dealer say to the pit boss "wait, hold on i accidentally did a blackjack shuffle" and the pit boss responds "oh just Fxxx It , just get the game started,  youre already 10 mins late."


Thx again,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 11, 2021, 10:05:49 PM
Hi KBF!!

I have the absolute certainty that most live casinos don't have a single reason to deal bac shoes favoring them in some way other than knowing their constant math edge (at bj this thing is possible but very unlikely).
I wouldn't be so sure about certain online casinos.

For that matter casinos do not know how to arrange cards to make players to lose, even if they consult the best statistical experts on the planet.
Since most baccarat players like to following trends and knowing that all mechanical systems rely upon the probability that strong deviations must be compensated sooner or later, casinos cannot know how to arrange cards to neglect this or that situation.

More specifically, any simple BP succession could be splitted into infinite derived successions each of them getting different features that cannot be symmetrically placed per every succesion considered.
The coin is biased at the start of any single shoe, unfortunately we can't properly guess per every shoe dealt which side of the coin will be biased.

The fact that B side is math favorite to win itlr doesn't help us too much as it's strongly influenced by the actual card distribution.
The probability to get shoes producing a well below than average amount of asym hands is around any corner, thus any regular B wagering will get tremendous negative situations. After all when we lose we lose 1 and when we win we win 0.95.
Not mentioning how things really work at many other roads.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 12, 2021, 12:01:48 AM
Now let's put the craps system ideas into baccarat.

That craps system relies upon the distant probability to get four distinct consecutive players in a row to make each 4 or more passes.

Our progressive betting sounds as

$10-20-40-80

$20-40-80-160

$30-60-120-240

$40-80-160-320

Total $1500, that is 150 units.

Whenever we win we restart the $10 betting, whenever we lose we'll go toward the next betting step.

At craps this system is so solid that you'll need a lot of sessions to lose your entire 150 units bankroll. Odds are that in the process you'll be in the positive field in the vast majority of the times.

Say we want to assign at any single baccarat column a kind of new shooter, thus whenever a new column starts it's like this column impersonates a new shooter.
For example a BBBPBBBPPPBBPBPPPB sequence will endorse the action of 8 distinct shooters getting each 2 passes (as the first hand of the shoe is a neutral indicator), zero passes, 2 passes, 2 passes, 1 pass, zero passes, zero passes and 2 passes.

In this "fortunate" example we didn't get forward the first step betting line, thus we'll get all winnings.

Of course any 5+ streak will make us a first-step loser, thus thereafter we need a proper cumulative amount of not 5+-hands to get an overall win.

Now we'll get singles, doubles, triples and 4-streaks to get a winning situation, the only situation we'll lose is whenever a 4+ situation will come out.

In a word, we'll lose our entire bankroll when a shoe will produce four or more 5+ consecutive streaks, a thing that it'll surely happen but by which degree of probability?

Now say we do want to put in action just the players getting two wins in a row. After all doubles are the more likely results at baccarat, aren't they?

Then our new betting patterns are doubles, triples, 4-streaks and 5-streaks. At the price of missing singles opportunities, now we know that the probability to lose our entire bankroll is not existent at all other than from a theorical point of view.
Show me how many times you had crossed shoes producing four or more consecutive 6+ streaks. Answer: zero.

But we can make a further adjustment, that is to classify how many times different classes of winning/losing patterns had acted consecutively along the way.
We can't prevent shoes to produce consecutive 5+-streaks, but this happening is a perfect negation either of the general asymmetrical card distribution and of the whinsical asym strenght favoring B side.

That's now that so called math experts must put their knowledge in their a.sses, even though they can easily opine that no matter what, our bets are getting a money return lower than 1.
Yep, but for their misfortune, when properly assessed the statistical advantage will be higher than what a math edge can do.

Is this mathematical big.hornsh.it?

Probably, but we're eager to get people facing our bets.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: Albalaha on May 12, 2021, 09:15:52 AM
QuoteThat's now that so called math experts must put their knowledge in their a.sses, even though they can easily opine that no matter what, our bets are getting a money return lower than 1.
           I DO NOT KNOW WHICH BOOK OF MATH SAYS SO. UNLESS WE ARE DESTINED TO LOSE EVERY HAND A PARTICULAR SUM OR WE KEEP BETTING FLAT 1 UNIT ALWAYS, HOUSE EDGE CAN NOT BEAT US DECISIVELY. When I simulated over 10 millions spins of roulette with Ophis with a progression based betting and beat that too, I understood the hollowness of such pseudo math claims.
          Take the case of martingale and any played session in the world. It will beat each. Did martingale change math? No. Same goes with labby and fibbo. There is no answer of this with any so called math genius. Math can beat the randomness and house advantage both but table limit or bankroll will stop it this way (but math is math). I went ahead and did it mathematically (with a dash of logic) within playable bankroll and table spread. I will surely win, in the long run, even if I get 6SD negative variance, meanwhile.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 16, 2021, 10:33:48 PM
I see and respect your points.

But think that casinos need the appearance of sd values well below than 5 or 6 sigma to pocket most or all of players's bankrolls.

At baccarat a proper bet selection cannot reach sigma values higher than 1.5 or maybe 2, as there's no fkng way that asymmetrical probabilities or so called pseudo symmetrical probabilities can reach those values for long when applied into a finite and card dependent model.

Every bac player should adapt Smoluchowski and RVM works into baccarat and he/she'll get an idea of what we're talking about.

Everytime we're considering as baccarat as a finite and card dependent asymmetrical succession (good start), there will be times where A will be more likely than B by a degree surpassing the fkng negative math edge as the asym factors eliciting a  more likely world are getting a higher power than what the pseudo sym strenght could do in other constant symmetrical propositions.

No way baccarat is beatable by thinking that results are made by independent sym situations or, even worse,  that one side should be constantly more probable than the other one no matter what.

If one had discovered a way to beat baccarat by always wagering B side, well it means he'll be able to get the same counterpart positive results by always wagering P side by a worse -0.18% long term profit.
I mean that anyone claiming to beat baccarat by always wagering B side, should get the same positive results by always wagering the P side, now decurted by a 0.18% lesser edge.

Do not tell us that -1.06% vs -1.24% becomes a decisive factor about how to get long term wins, as the huge factor to be overcome is -1%.
LOL.

Moreover, there's no one single fkng probability to be long term winner when playing every single shoe dealt by a 1 trillion % accuracy.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: Albalaha on May 19, 2021, 01:34:37 PM
No way baccarat is beatable by thinking that results are made by independent sym situations or, even worse,  that one side should be constantly more probable than the other one no matter what.

Banker is always more probable(very marginally though) due to drawing rules. Do you doubt that?

If one had discovered a way to beat baccarat by always wagering B side, well it means he'll be able to get the same counterpart positive results by always wagering P side by a worse -0.18% long term profit.

I m not sure if I could understand your statement in red in the last statement of yours. How will one wager P side by a worse 0.18% long term profit? It seems you could not properly word your feelings here. We can't bet a loser bet and still win. Whatever we need to do is in the winner bet itself. Wagering B side is not advantageous enough as the edge it has over Player is negated by the house fees. Say one gets 51 wins on Banker in 100 trials(Ties ignored), he will still lose 0.55 chips, while Player will be at -2. If house fees is removed from Banker with the same drawing rules, playing Banker would be a sure shot way to win in the long run.
I mean that anyone claiming to beat baccarat by always wagering B side, should get the same positive results by always wagering the P side, now decurted by a 0.18% lesser edge.

Do not tell us that -1.06% vs -1.24% becomes a decisive factor about how to get long term wins, as the huge factor to be overcome is -1%.

Here I absolutely agree with you. There could be way to dodge the house edge on both Banker as well as Player alongwith momentary variance against us but that is where most of the Players get silenced.

I personally prefer betting Player and not at all concerned with the so called 0.18% disadvantage as in progressive betting, betting Banker has its own set of drawbacks.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 23, 2021, 11:08:30 PM
Hi Alba!

Banker is always more probable(very marginally though) due to drawing rules. Do you doubt that?

Yes, I dispute the "always" word.

Large samples show that Banker could be easily behind to Player after several shoes dealt.
Now think what the vig impact causes on our Banker winning bets when the B/P ratio is too close or even lower than 50/50.

If any single shoe wil get on average just one more B hand than P hand, we see that not many patterns will be so much affected by the asymmetrical probability.

The only way to get a real advantage by always wagering Banker comes whenever the asym hands number will be quite higher than expected per any shoe played.
And the "magic" winning probability value to look for in this instance is 51.3% or higher.

Unfortunately we can't prevent many consecutive card distributions to NOT provide a asym/sym ratio higher than expected, so hoping constantly for a math oriented situation won't be a viable option to beat this game.

On the other end, card distributions favoring asymmetrical probabilities NOT belonging to math advantaged situations (but shifted by key card distribution issues) recur at every shoe played.
Half of them will dictate to bet B, but the remaining half induce us to bet P.

About your next thoughts.

The bac probability isn't a constant asym proposition, 50.68/49.2 BP probabilities are coming out by long term assessments, that is by considering each outcome as a valuable result to be classified.
But for good peace of many, this probability is affected by either card dependent and math finite features both denying a perfect and independent source of randomness (of course happening only when we want to mix pears with apples, that is considering each outcome as a valuable one to be registered).

It's scientifically proven that any live card distribution will be more or less affected by a kind of defected randomness as such distributions won't fit the place selection and probability after events requirements confirming that a sample is a real random sample.
Thus any single shoe must be considered as a world apart.

Of course a possible defect of randomness is more probable to be detected whenever a given pattern will show back to back same situations and at baccarat we get many different situations to look for.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 23, 2021, 11:53:38 PM
Alba, I agree with your Player's betting attitude.

First, most of our bets aren't entitled to cross an unfavourable asym hand favoring B; in some way a selected betting plan must avoid 7-8 math disadvantaged hands per shoe, on average.
After all, when betting P side, the probability to cross an unfavourable math hand is 8.6%.

Second, people who haven't played at HS rooms do not get the idea about how much the vig affects their bankroll, most of the times unnecessarily.

Third, many shoes provide card distributions giving a fk about the asym B hand advantage, meaning P will win anyway at those asym B favored hands. And in the meanwhile the finite asym hand probability (favoring B) will be consumed.

Fourth, it's way more likely to get shoes with lower than average percentage of asym hands than higher than average asym hand percentages.

Fifth, more than 1/3 of the total results will show a natural, but B naturals are payed 0.95:1 and P naturals are payed 1:1.

Sixth, the vast majority of bets made toward a kind of asymmetricity applied to many random walks will get a way more winning probability when P side is wagered.

Seventh, let's casinos think that P bettors are losers, they surely won't like so much a worse 0.18% disadvantage than B bettors.

Eighth, when a given random walk is going to form a more likely long term asymmetrical situation, we want to be payed 100% and not 95%.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: Albalaha on May 24, 2021, 06:29:36 AM
Asym,
          While I can argue on many aspects but am sure about one thing. To lose with Player or even Banker bet (banker bet is not destined to get a net win either), in the long term house presupposes three things:
1. Flat betting will be done, which is bound to lose as you can not find any logic to get more wins than losses in Player, in the long run or way to offset house fees if you choose Banker.
2. Crazy progressions will lose even more and faster
      and I firmly believe that both are set in stone. Only difference one can make is doing either of these two:
1. Somehow manage more wins than losses in number to offset the house edge and house fees and win flat bet;or
2. Somehow win more money and lose less despite more losses than wins(in numbers) and that too without any order.

                      I spent thousands of hours in trying both and personally experienced that I should strive in latter. If you can do something to better both or even in one, it is heavenly. Everything else is empty futile attempt. We can define and code and simulate all sane ideas whereby we can play manually and there is no room for guessing whether what we are thinking should work or not.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 25, 2021, 09:59:03 PM
Hi Alba!


1. Flat betting will be done, which is bound to lose as you can not find any logic to get more wins than losses in Player, in the long run or way to offset house fees if you choose Banker.

That's absolutely true whether a static probability will act per each single outcome (roulette, for example), thus every outcome registered in infinite sub successions will invariably get the same  values dictated by math.
However baccarat outcome probabilities belong to a dynamic world obviously affected by the actual card distribution forming infinite sub successions that are not fitting the math values they should get even after thousands and thousands of shoes dealt.

It's altogether natural to know that single shoe dynamic probabilities will increasingly merge toward the expected math values that in the state of art of baccarat were considered just in B/P terms. (side bets aside). That is by unbeatable terms.

2. Crazy progressions will lose even more and faster
      and I firmly believe that both are set in stone. Only difference one can make is doing either of these two:
1. Somehow manage more wins than losses in number to offset the house edge and house fees and win flat bet;or
2. Somehow win more money and lose less despite more losses than wins(in numbers) and that too without any order.


Again, you are 100% correct.

If I'm playing a 50.68%/49.32% probability (where 50.68% is EV-) knowing that no one hand wil fit this probability value but just itlr, I'm not doing myself a favor.
To get my progression to win I need to transform that 50.68% into a profitable 51.3% (at least) and that 49.32 into a 50.1 (at least).

Thus no one progression will get the best of it until such values will be reached itlr.
The idea and claims stating that a progressive plan may be in the positive field for long can be easily disproved by a sd study (and common sense).

By the early XX century an eminent roulette scholar tried to set up a plan by waiting that a 3 or higher sigma deviation would happen at one EC side, then starting the betting to get a kind of RTM effect, that is wagering the opposite side to get sooner or later at least a +1 situation (slight balancing the previous deviation).
Unfortunately many pc tests confirmed that betting the very first hand or the hands following a 3 sq deviation or higher deviation provide the same unbeatable random probabilities (48.65% at single zero wheels).

1. Somehow manage more wins than losses in number to offset the house edge and house fees and win flat bet;or
2. Somehow win more money and lose less despite more losses than wins(in numbers) and that too without any order.


Point 1 is the only sure way to win itlr, and even here we'll have to endure some harsh times to control the variance.

Point 2: yep, this should be a heavenly task negating some issues I've written so far.

Think what can do two players who have found out that the game is beatable by flat betting and the other one by getting a long term profit even when the W/L ratio is shifted toward the right.  ^-^

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: Albalaha on May 27, 2021, 02:48:04 AM
QuoteThink what can do two players who have found out that the game is beatable by flat betting and the other one by getting a long term profit even when the W/L ratio is shifted toward the right.

    Nope. Both can not work together as they are based upon altogether different premises. I consider baccarat to be absolutely random and absolutely unrelated with card points, hands number, dealer, dealt/burnt cards so far etc. If these considerations can work to help even slightly in predicting outcomes, we do not need an MM strategy, at all. If all these combined gives us even 1% edge against the house, we just need to keep betting the biggest unit fearlessly. With an edge, we will win from casino as easily as casino wins from us. Simple.
I must congratulate you for having an edge against the house in a "so called random" game. Momentary drawdowns should not deter you.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 29, 2021, 08:27:18 PM
I think that in the complicated gambling world people raised their expertise in different fields, about managing worst drawdowns you seem to be very prepared.

And btw, anyone stating that random successions can be controlled in player's favor no matter what, should get more emphasis than those saying that a game is not so random thus potentially producing a player's edge.
So congratulations are for you.

It's a fact that baccarat scholars like to stay on their findings, without trying to get inputs from  other players to possibly improve their strategy. And this is a pity, imo.

I still consider baccarat as a finite unrandom and multiple factor asymmetrical game; but those features on average will be very slight placed, and not happening valuably at every shoe dealt.

If a MM might get the best of it by wagering every shoe dealt, well chapeau!, yet I prefer to win by a strict flat betting procedure. That's all.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 29, 2021, 10:44:26 PM
Frequentist theory of probability

Frequentist probability or frequentism is an interpretation of probability; it defines an event's probability as the limit of its relative frequency in many trials. ...


Words already heard in my posts...

So, ties ignored, is B showing 50.68% of the times and P the remaining 49.32% itlr?
Who gives a sh.it?

Instead let's work on the definition of "event" and thus about its relative frequency.
After all an "event" could be interpreted as a single B or as a single P or as a 5 B or P streak or as a 10 chopping BP line or as any other red/blue succession showing up at derived roads.

I mean that whenever an event is considered by a multiple hand situation, the probability to get the same or opposite event will be slight affected according to the patterns (and quality features) already happened on that line.
In addition, multiple hand events considered shoe per shoe are not producing the same positional features as long as a restricted amount of hands constitute an "event".

Even though a "more likely" world sometimes can't be valuably assessed within a single shoe card distribution, consecutive shoes will enlarge this probability as it's impossible to think that a given card distribution will produce the same random walks for long. Especially whether our betting points (events distribution) are dynamically insensitive to a precise hands' number and position.

Every shoe as a number

Depending upon what events we'd like to register (the few the better, of course) every shoe dealt in the universe will get an "event number" transformed in digits.
Since we're classifying "events", the number 0 doesn't appear in our registrations, when a 10 or higher number will appear we'll sign it as a "X".

Even though the possible card combinations are almost infinite, an already slight propensity to get something at a single shoe must be endorsed by a back to back shoe assessment but not by considering outcomes as mere BP successions but as "events" having a dynamic probability to form.

We've already seen that a given BP succession is directly displayed within four additional forms (derived roads), of course the bead plate displaying ties should be discarded by any means.

Positionally speaking, if any event is already more likely than the counterpart, vertical 'hand insensitive' spots considered shoe per shoe will be even more likely or not, meaning that shoe single digit numbers will deviate from a supposedly perfect random world.

Acting this way we're discarding most of the strong unlikely deviated situations being the heaven for recreational players and the hell for serious long term winners. As they are constituting few spots along the shoe number formation.

Moreover an interesting study has found out that rare events tend to come out in clusters then declining in probability.
The authors of this study claimed that such findings wouldn't get an advantage over gambling games.
We disagree. 

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on May 30, 2021, 03:40:15 AM
Hi AsymBacGuy
Thx for the last couple of posts here--I like that you view bac through a dif lens than alot of players.

"..Positionally speaking, if any event is already more likely than the counterpart, vertical 'hand insensitive' spots considered shoe per shoe will be even more likely or not, meaning that shoe single digit numbers will deviate from a supposedly perfect random world..."

     Q: Can u clarify or elaborate a little more on this sentence .


"..Moreover an interesting study has found out that rare events tend to come out in clusters then declining in probability.
The authors of this study claimed that such findings wouldn't get an advantage over gambling games...."
     I agree with the first sentence  re: clustering.

     Im not sure(or don't have a strong opinion) on the second sentence.  At first glance I guess it could, however, other factors to consider. 

Q : Do you recall the link to these authors' study. 


Thx in advance,kfb
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 30, 2021, 08:17:40 PM
Hi KFB and thanks!

The paper is "Probability in Decline" by Dean M. Brooks.
I've found that some general ideas contained here could be helpful at specific same deck shuffling situations.

Later about your first question.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 30, 2021, 11:45:23 PM
Normally baccarat players consider shoes' outcomes as consecutive successions. Imo it's not the only tool to find out a possible bias and/or to take advantage of game's flaws.

Events (especially 'complex' events needing many hands to form) are distributed asymmetrically along any shoe, yet their pace varies continuously as long as new shoes are dealt.
Thus enforcing or not a general probability to appear whenever a positional study is in order.

The easy objection one could make is that itlr each event will be distributed proportionally at every position of each shoe dealt, but this objection only stands whether every card distribution is perfect randomly produced. And this is not the case, especially when same decks are shuffled back to back.
Anyway, our watchdog remains the sd.

Probably transforming shoes into a mere 8-15 digit number (of events) and comparing those shoe per shoe numbers by a positional study should be the best tool to know which spots are more likely (or not) to show up.
The 8-15 number is just an indicative value posted for practical reasons, actually the more we are restricing our field of registrations higher will be our probability of success.

Let's make an example.
Say our first shoe is read as 21513123413 (a real shoe, btw). 

Now we are facing the next shoe trying to get some hints before betting.
Since I have omitted the general probability why such numbers will form, we could think that an option might be to get the new shoe producing more different positional numbers than equal positional numbers (or vice versa if you knew the exact events general probability to happen).

Of course it's way more practical to bet that numbers will differ from simple values, for example numbers being equal or different than 1 or 2 at the same positions.

Anyway, the next same shoe shuffled by a CSM (the very next shoe was not considered as belonging to a diverse 8-deck) produced a 422162113241 sequence.

1) 2-1-5-1-3-1-2-3-4-1-3
2) 4-2-2-1-6-2-1-1-3-2-4-1

There are infinite ways to consider such back to back outcomes, anyway we just consider 1s and 2s, that is the six numbers produced at the first shoe (positions #1, #2, #4, #6, #7 and #10) compared to the next shoe same positions.

pos 1: different number
pos 2: different "
pos 4: equal  "
pos 6: different  "
pos 7: different  "
pos 10: different "

Naturally any 1 will need just one step to be different than another 1, whereas 2s need a two-step betting to get a different value than 2 (first step betting toward a 1, next step betting toward a 2+).

Another interesting effect to be aware of after having tested several live shoes shuffled in the same circumstances is that single shoe positions could endure homogeneous results for long, a kind of weird clustering effect of rare events. When such thing seems to happen, best way to take is to simply get rid of that position.

It's important to add that we aren't forced to bet each position by any means, a thing particularly valuable at HS rooms where each deck is a new one.

Finally, the 8-15 events per shoe range was just an example, we could select more deeply our bet selection at the price of waiting and waiting and waiting but in the meanwhile raising our probability of success.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 08, 2021, 11:41:37 PM
Finally back home.

Baccarat vulnerability

People making a living at this game know very well that baccarat could be beaten only at very few spots arising along most part of shoes but not along every shoe.
It's the same concept why bj is beatable, albeit taken from different perspectives. Math issues at bj, card distribution issues at baccarat. 

A baccarat deck cannot refrain to produce more likely outcomes along the way, it's up to us to select what and when certain more likely outcomes should come out or not (and how long).
It's of paramount importance to understand that the vast majority of BP successions could be interpreted as different random walks getting diverse features of certain lenght.

Again the key word is symmetry, widely intended.

At baccarat cards cannot be distributed proportionally along every shoe, even though it could happen that unlikely whimsical results tend to produce "fake" symmetrical spots. Notice that the counter probability to get a hoped result by opposite issues will be specular itlr. So itlr weird unusual card distributions may be considered as neutral.

Along any shoe, the symmetry fights against the asymmetricity by various degrees and by various lenghts; to consider multiple sub successions will help us to better define their 'average' impact.

Since games must be accounted and measured by 'numbers', we should set up 'personal' limiting values of relative frequencies of both symmetry and asimmetricity acting at every shoe dealt.

For example (and assuming B=P for simplicity), a BBBBBBB sequence followed by a PPPPPP sequence is a sure asymmetrical situation, but we need 6 betting steps to find it out.

And a BBPPBBB sequence needs 4 betting steps to cross the same asym finding (this sequence forms two symmetrical spots and one asymmetrical spot).

Itlr numbers considered at various levels can't be wrong whenever the source (card distribution) is asymmetrical by definition.

See you next week

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on June 09, 2021, 05:41:26 PM
Hi AsymBacGuy

"... People making a living at this game know very well that baccarat could be beaten only at very few spots arising along most part of shoes but not along every shoe.
It's the same concept why bj is beatable, albeit taken from different perspectives. Math issues at bj, card distribution issues at baccarat. ..."



:nod:  Like Button
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 13, 2021, 11:40:21 PM
Hi KFB!

Let's suppose to face this shoe:

PP
B
PP
B
PPP
BBBBB
P
B
PPP
B
PP
B
P
BB
PP
BBB
PPP
BB
PPP
BB
P
B
PPPP
BBB
PP
BB
PP
B
PPPPPP
B
P

Total B=27
Total P=38

By just considering the mere B/P hands gap we could think as this shoe as being quite asymmetrical, actually it's one of the best example of strong symmetrical hands distribution.

It suffice to utilize a simple "hand converter" to see that most situations are distributed quite balanced along the way. Of course knowing what to look for.

So now our shoe becomes as

A
BBB
AAA
B
AA
B
A
BB
AAA
B
AAA
BBBB
AA
BB
A
BB
A
BB
AA
B
AA
BBBB
A
B
AA
B
AA
B
AA
BB
AA
BBB
A
B
A
B
AAA

Total A=33
Total B=32

In our new sequence, strictly math derived from the original BP succession, some properties have changed and here it's easier to see what to look for before betting.

From this example we could think that the 'symmetry' or 'asymmetricity' concept would be totally relative, depending about what we really want to classify and register.

Of course the average 8.6% probability to get math favorite B hands to win stands, but this probability is hugely influenced by the actual card distribution.

Notice that the probability that an entire shoe will get ALL Banker winning hands at every asymmetrical B math favorite spot is very very slim.
In some sense we should know that when betting P side rarely (and with some reason), the expected disadvantage could be easily more restricted than what the math general values dictate. After all, just one hand out of 11.62 hands dealt (or wagered) will be B favorite.
Being wrong at sym spots after wagering Player side is a far inferior mistake than winning the same sym spots at Banker side.
And of course we need to win very very few spots per shoe along the way. 

Actually casinos like to face multiple bets by people preferring Banker side no matter what as they know that such B aficionados could more easily fall into the card distribution variance.

From the most part, a Player bet fears just two exact card situations:

- Player draws and Banker shows a 4 point (unless Player side gets a 5);

- Player draws and Banker shows a 5 point (the most B math advantaged spot).

At a way lesser degree of probability comes the Player drawing when Banker shows a 3 and third card is an 8.

There are no other card situations strongly favoring Banker side to be payed 0.95:1, thus we can easily assume that baccarat is a kind of coin flip game hugely depending upon the actual card distribution.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 14, 2021, 01:43:27 AM
One more shoe.

P
B
PPP
B
P
B
P
BB
PP
BBBBBBB
P
B
PP
BBBBB
P
B
PPPP
BBBBBBBB
P
B
PP
B
PPPP
BB
PP
B
PPP

Total B= 32
Total P= 28

New sequence built on the same features seen above will be:

AAA
B
AAAAAA
BB
AA
B
A
B
A
B
AAAA
BB
A
B
A
BBBB
A
B
AA
BBBB
A
B
AA
B
A
B
A
B
A
BBBB
AAA
B
A
BB
AA
BBBBB

Total A= 34
Total B= 34

Here a slight BP asimmetricity shifted toward B side produced a perfect balanced final A/B ratio. Getting more valuable spots to bet at.

Think that to beat infinite so called 'random' finite and slight dependent successions, we need to transform them into unrandom sequences getting limiting values of relative frequency not fitting the general probability numbers.

Btw, it's funny to see that some math experts like to label baccarat scholars as complete i.d.i.ots.

Really?

Collect your fkng money and face our bets, after all you'll have the math edge on your side.

As long as we can bet whenever we want or not along any shoe dealt, you can put your math edge right on your behind.
In a way or another, some baccarat players know better than you, you must accept this.

Are you going to rewrite statistical laws acting at a finite and card dependent live shufflle deck?
I guess you can't.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on June 14, 2021, 04:11:52 AM
Good posts AsymBacGuy. Thx for taking the time to elaborate with examples.

I agree with most everything u mention above re: bet selection and only betting in select spots.
I view most all shoes as offering  us potential wagering spots. I also think shoes provide many +wagering spots. I think of these potential +spots in terms of:
Good, Better, and Best.

Its difficult at times for us to pass on the Good/Better spots and wait for the Best. However, the latter is certainly more lucrative/yields a better ROI. 


Continued Success,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 15, 2021, 11:13:17 PM
Quote from: KungFuBac on June 14, 2021, 04:11:52 AM
Good, Better, and Best.

Its difficult at times for us to pass on the Good/Better spots and wait for the Best. However, the latter is certainly more lucrative/yields a better ROI. 


Perfect!

And we can bet everything we have on our name that long term winners wager only at the Best spots.

It's true that in some shoes Good and Better could last for long thus enticing us to bet a lot of hands, yet only the Best part yields the advantage we're looking for.

Regardless of how whimsical the card distribution seems to be, it will produce a succession whose properties remain the same.
It's just a matter of 'finite space' that the properties we're looking for will present or not in the actual shoe.

Curiously, but no so much, bad shuffled shoes are going to consume less room than good shuffled shoes as in the latter category the symmetry tend to reach 'perfect' thus unbeatable values.

It's a fact that the vast majority of each bac hand will yield a probability quite different than 50/50 or 50.68/49.32 as it strongly depends about the actual card distribution.
In a sense, when a player places his bet he should expect to be quite wrong or quite right, and not equally wrong or equally right.

The above math and commonly accepted values come off from fake 'collectives', that is large samples made on pc simulations not fitting decent conditions happening when we bet real money at real live tables.
And of course considering each step as perfect independently placed from the previous one/s, assuming that the probability to get this or that comes from the same perfect random source.

More technically speaking, that every single card distribution could come out at specific points to break a given strategic plan.

This is a total fkng rattlesnakesh.it.

First, we need a perfect random source to get so called "unbeatable" expected values and of course the vast majority of live shoes do not belong to this category.

Second, baccarat is not black jack where some card clumpings favor or not the player or the house, at the same time knowing the bj player must bet something at every hand dealt.

Third, a baccarat deck is almost entirely dealt, thus endorsing at various degrees the probability to get (or not) an expected situation.

Fourth, at baccarat we have many tools to estimate how much a given card distribution tends to surpass the 'average' card distribution, a parameter that can't disrespect for long certain values, unless very rare situations consume a lot of space.

The 'space' concept was so seriously taken by certain high end casinos that even though the only side bet offered at their tables are ties, 8-deck shoes are played up to 50-56 hands. Then they shuffle again.

Probably those casinos' customers (btw wagering maximum or close to max limits) seemed to be smarter than average, it's quite probable that sooner or later all premises offering baccarat tables will adhere to the same procedure.

Is baccarat a kind of bj game where some features will get the players an edge?

Ooh it can't. Math geniuses state otherwise.
Fortunately for us.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 16, 2021, 12:46:04 AM
Think that our claims consider all possible outcomes' successions and strictly measured, classified upon the same shuffling procedures made at the same deck.

Whenever a new deck is offered (HS rooms) we have accounted a general probability compared to the actual probability, so unless cards are precisely dealt by a software (and even if we suspect this fact, the post manual shuffling happening at every HS shoe dealt must neglect such possibility), the probability to get equal or opposite results at back to back shoes remains quite asymmetrically placed.

Btw, casinos have no interest to shuffle cards in a certain way to promote players to lose.
That's a total nonsense, it suffices to study the 4 derived roads directly displayed on the screen.
There's no one BP succession  in the world to get all losing sequences on all four derived roads and even though they know our precise preferred personal random walk we like to use, they can't arrange cards to get multiple losing sequences at back to back shoes.

Casinos get their huge profits at bac tables about players' ignorance or fake statements and not only about the math edge.

Most players like to bet upon asymmetrical situations lasting for long, a kind of trending based action, unfortunately asymmetrical situations will proportionally mix with symmmetrical situations and unless those spots are math studied and properly classified and measured, the EV will be negative.
By a 1 trillion % degree.

The same about the Banker math propensity.
Banker bets are better than Player bets by getting a lesser than 0.18% ROI disadvantage.
Anyone who is used to play at HS rooms knows very well the commission weight, I mean that commissions add up at the end of the shoe, very often producing a total loss.

After all, our bets must erase or invert a more than 1% math edge, thus no help comes from lowering it by a st.upid 0.18% long term value.

It's more likely to get a better than 50% win rate at P bets than getting a 51.3% cutoff value to get B bets to be worthwhile as the asym strenght favoring B bets come out one time out of 11.62 hands on average.

But it's whenever we consider the BP sequence as A or B result successions that we can get a better idea that no one side is particularly shifted toward one side as the actual card distribution will make a huge role on that.

As long as A or B are different than B or P, well we're playing a winning game.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on June 16, 2021, 03:14:39 PM
Hi AsymBacGuy

re: "... The 'space' concept was so seriously taken by certain high end casinos that even though the only side bet offered at their tables are ties, 8-deck shoes are played up to 50-56 hands. Then they shuffle again. ..."
[/b]
     Q: Do you know of houses that do this on a regular(daily) basis  ?

Thx in advance,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 21, 2021, 12:21:42 AM
Q: Do you know of houses that do this on a regular(daily) basis  ?

Thx in advance,
[/quote]

Best example is the Salon Privés at Monte Carlo casino in the Principality of Monaco.
Needless to say, it's the most prestigious historical gambling premise in the planet to bet the money at.
In the summer season Salon Privés games (single zero roulette, bj and baccarat) are offered at a outdoor terrace directly overlooking the Mediterranean Sea.
Few players can get the admission to play at this room even though baccarat tables limits are as low as €100-€30.000.

Notice that in Monte Carlo and in most european casinos, no free hands are dealt. 

In Vegas, few casinos are worried about dealing the vast majority of the shoe and very often players  instruct the dealer to stop the actual shoe in order to get a new one.

Of course whenever acute players had considered a shoe as a unplayable one, this stopping procedure will go to their benefit. But in the remaining and more likely occurences, acute players' interest is to get the shoe dealt up to the end.

To clarify things more and for one time taking the Jacobson's book direction to consider the two opposite parts (players side and casinos side) I would suggest:

Players side

- bet only at shoes were most part of the shoe are supposed to be dealt. Preferably when the first card is an ace, deuce, three or four, thus cutting off from the initial part of the shoe just one, two, three or four cards.

- avoid shoes where the red card is too 'light' placed, meaning that too many cards are cut off from the play.

- play at tables where you're not compelled to place a bet for whatever reason, that is tables where more than one person likes to bet every hand.

- play at manually shuffled shoes or Shuffle Master Machine same shoes dealt in alternating pace. 

- for practical reasons serious money can't go unnoticed at Bac Theaters, so true HS rollers must bet at live tables. At live tables nobody gives a fk whether you'll place an occasional yellow or multiple yellow chip denomination, but at Bac Theaters you need to introduce several $100 bills to get a proper bankroll capable to bet the same amount or to endure the invariable losing situations. Not mentioning that the maximum betting limit at BTs is, in the most fortunate case, set up at $5000.
Moreover chips are money in distinct denominations, tickets cannot be splitted.

Casinos side

- only a pc software always starting from a perfect 'neutral' point where everything is equally probable to show up could provide real random results.
In the remaining cases, your card distributions will be affected by a kind of bias. 
SMs acting at the same deck won't fit the random parameters, let alone manually shufflled shoes starting from precise card sequences.

- more hands are dealt and lesser are the decks utilized to form a shoe and higher will be the probability to face players capable to get hints from the actual card distribution.
It's not a coincidence that at Monte Carlo casino (where players can regularly bet 30.000 euros, that is $35.000 at this time, almost the double max limit allowed at Vegas casinos) shifted a 6-deck shoe offer to a 8-shoe offer cutting off from the play at least two decks.

- besides the above considerations, the only sure way to neglect a possibile (sure) player's advantage is by dealing bac hands by a CSM, that is by totally denying a possible back to back influence over the outcomes.

We'll see more deeply this issue in a couple of days.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on June 21, 2021, 03:22:02 AM
Hi AsymBacGuy
Good post. Thx for answering my question and the additional intel is thought provoking.


"...We'll see more deeply this issue in a couple of days. ..."

We look forward to the next edition.



kfb
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 23, 2021, 12:26:05 AM
Hi KFB!

I think that at gambling games more imperfect informations a player will get higher will be the probability to lose.
At baccarat everything seems to be so "volatile" that players' efforts to look for predictable results are worthless. Imo, this is not the case.

Baccarat results move around two distinct fields of probability:

- the math probability to get B advantaged over the P side;

- the average card distribution probability eliciting patterns of some lenght. That's the main factor we should be interested to assess.

Itlr, the vast majority of patterns could be restricted into precise lenght situations up to the point that we can consider B=P.
After all, an 8-deck shoe will present, on average, just one more B hand than P hand. Thus enlarging a possible B streak at one spot or shifting the P sequences at one spot.

Obviously CSMs deny a sequential probability of some kind and even though we can assess the BP distribution by multiple derived roads, the lack of dependence factor will invalidate the power of the average card distribution issue.

For that matter, many high end casinos know very well the baccarat vulnerability, they'll simply hope that players like to get huge winnings within too short intervals or liking to wager the insourmountable negative edge apllied to side bets.

[b]Simple back to back outcomes and complex back to back outcomes

It's the key to win itlr.

An average card distribution will more likely produce clustering win situations. The more we are considering winning clusters by strict parameters, higher will be the probability to win.

The clustering effect will form situations of different lenght, anyway we are interested about back to back W or L spots.
We know there's a general probability to get singles and doubles, the probability to get losses in such sequences is specularly placed as we shouldn't consider as B and P as opposite results.
Anyway, all streaks surpassing the 3 cutoff point are going to our favor as they'll produce opposite situations from a A/B point of view.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on June 23, 2021, 06:09:07 AM
Thx AsymBacGuy--good thread/ post.

Your sentence:
"... An average card distribution will more likely produce clustering win situations. The more we are considering winning clusters by strict parameters, higher will be the probability to win.  ..."

Can you clarify the phrase in bold? or give an example. thx



Continued Success,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on June 23, 2021, 11:56:39 AM
Quote from: KungFuBac on June 23, 2021, 06:09:07 AM
Thx AsymBacGuy--good thread/ post.

Your sentence:
"... An average card distribution will more likely produce clustering win situations. The more we are considering winning clusters by strict parameters, higher will be the probability to win.  ..."

Can you clarify the phrase in bold? or give an example. thx



Continued Success,


"For that matter, many high end casinos know very well the baccarat vulnerability, they'll simply hope that players like to get huge winnings within too short intervals or liking to wager the insourmountable negative edge apllied to side bets.

Simple back to back outcomes and complex back to back outcomes"



My Response:

I've tried to detail it out and show pictures of it and mark up scoring boards repetitively. What I entitled and discussed; SECTIONS WITHIN SECTIONS. Small sections can be extremely profitable however, it will play with our minds and we (generally) attempt/try to keep following and not cash out or go back to a neutral position, which we MUST do to be extremely profitable.

It all boils down to, our frame-of-mind.

ALRELAX
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on June 23, 2021, 06:22:24 PM
Thx Alrelax--good points.






Continued Success,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 27, 2021, 11:14:54 PM
Besides other topics, Alrelax is deadly right about the importance of ties affecting the BP distribution or, generally speaking, our plan.

Recently I've crossed a really weird live shoe (a manually shuffled fresh shoe):

first card is a 5, thus five cards were burnt. First hand is Player, second hand is Banker

1)  3-6  K-9  TIE

2)  3-T (3) Q-6  TIE

3) 8-T   K-8   TIE

4) 5-2   4-J (3)  TIE

5) A-9 (9)  K-Q (9)  TIE

6) 4-5   Q-9   TIE

7) 2-2 (6)   4-K (6) TIE  That's amazing....a complicated way to get the seventh tie in a row when a simple third zero value card could have made the job.

8) 2-A (2)  8-7   TIE

9) T-2 (8)  4-3  Banker wins, end of the ties streak.

In summary this shoe presented 8 ties in a row at the very start of it; just two over eight tie hands employed six cards (the more likely situation to get a tie); at hand #7 people at the table went crazy.

Ties are one of the worst betting opportunity at baccarat, yet jackpots happen.
And in reality few people have made serious money at this shoe.

In my tests I've run hundreds of thousands of pc simulated shoes and this thing never happened at the very start of the shoe, just a couple of times 8+ ties came out but in different positions. And of course my live shoe data consider a significant smaller percentage of shoes.

I mean that if sh.it happens, well, jackpots must happen, especially at a game where we have reasons to think that each 'spin' cannot be perfectly independent from the previous one.

Math goes right down the toilet whenever each distribution isn't perfect randomly shaped.
That is nearly 100% of the times.

as.   
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 28, 2021, 01:24:22 AM
Quote from: KungFuBac on June 23, 2021, 06:09:07 AM
Thx AsymBacGuy--good thread/ post.

Your sentence:
"... An average card distribution will more likely produce clustering win situations. The more we are considering winning clusters by strict parameters, higher will be the probability to win.  ..."

Can you clarify the phrase in bold? or give an example. thx

Continued Success,

Hi KFB!

Say our method is tested on 70.000 live bac shoes.

The probability to be ahead by randomly selecting just one or more BP betting spots per shoe is very close to zero, even if we are acting after knowing the exact BP distributions happening at this 70k shoes data.
Ok, maybe 12+ P streaks are going to get a B hand more often than not (vig considered) but the ROI still remains negative. Not mentioning that the hands observed/EV ratio will be constantly shifted toward the left side. No matter how deep we'll start the betting.

I mean no general rare BP triggers coming up along the way are valuable itlr as the actual shoe card distribution will make a decisive role about it.
Shoe per shoe.

Variance

When we transform a 'random' BP succession into multiple AB unrandom sequences, the variance will be way more restricted than expected. For good peace of mathematicians.

It happens that BP successions are way more affected by volatility than AB sequences, as B or P are going to get a place just by the simple nature ot the actual outcome, whereas an AB model must take into account a back to back probability made on multiple situations before getting a place.

I mean that itlr it's way more likely to get multiple detectable AB situations than simple BP successions as the former category cannot give a damn about the asymmetrical outcomes nature acting just one time over an average number of 11.62 attempts. Sd values will help us.

Summarazing.

- all shoes dealt are affected by a sure asymmetrical card distribution acting by some values;

- the fact that B>P should be considered as an irrelevant factor as AB streaks are way more detectable than BP streaks.

- the probability to get a given AB pattern is at least 1.5 times higher than the BP probability to get the same pattern, providing to get rid of the unplayable shoes.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on June 28, 2021, 01:55:08 AM
And summarizing in layman's terms/actual brick and mortar casino players results, the drawdown will kill most players buy-ins and/or bankrolls before their opportunities are presented for those 'spots' you so technically define in the above post.

Please do not take it the wrong way, I'm not criticizing your writing and your comments, I'm just making an observation to stress the drawdown, the patience required, the frame of mind and everything else that is mandatory in trying to catch all of this, which I've learned over the years.

However as I talked about and write about there are opportunities and entrance points that I repeatedly remind everybody of, called SECTIONS WITHIN SECTIONS and the key to really profiting and preserving your bankroll and minimizing risk with your buy ins, is being extremely conscious and remaining neutral in your frame-of--mind when you are playing. Not easy to do, not at all.

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on June 28, 2021, 02:41:48 PM
Thx for replies AsymBacGuy and Alrelax.




continued success,

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on June 29, 2021, 04:37:25 AM
Hi AsymBacGuy

Thx for replies/comments.

"...
the fact that B>P should be considered as an irrelevant factor as AB streaks are way more detectable than BP streaks.

- the probability to get a given AB pattern is at least 1.5 times higher than the BP probability to get the same pattern, .."


Can u give an example as I am not following your logic in the statement above. Is there an example for how this could actually be applied in real time within a shoe. Thx in advance for clarification,kfb
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 04, 2021, 07:53:16 PM
Quote from: alrelax on June 28, 2021, 01:55:08 AM

Please do not take it the wrong way, I'm not criticizing your writing and your comments, I'm just making an observation to stress the drawdown, the patience required, the frame of mind and everything else that is mandatory in trying to catch all of this, which I've learned over the years.


I do not, Al and I never did.
I take your observations very seriously, after all what you say it's very effective at the tables.

I just want to reiterate the idea that baccarat can get the player a sure indeniable edge by a strict scientifical point of view.

To beat baccarat nobody is totally wrong or totally right, thus we better put different ideas together (imo).

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 04, 2021, 10:55:26 PM
Hi KFB!

The BP model is biased at the start for two different reasons.

1- B is more likely than P just on rare occasions, I mean it's not steadily more probable than P as the overall B/P probability is assessed on the very long term, many times mixing up different sources of data and/or considering pc simulated shoes.

2- any live bac shoe dealt in the universe is affected by a kind of non randomness.

#1: I've provided here and for the first time publicly (for free) the math values why and by which degree B>P.

#2: math values work only at real random propositions, yet we can assume that such randomness doesn't affect most part of live shoes dealt.
But we need more advanced tools to ascertain a possible non randomness, namely getting rid of simple B/P successions.

Several years ago Ed Thorp devised a card counting scheme assigning a value to Banker's positive cards and Player's positive cards.
After a cutoff point was reached (needing many many hands to show up on average), Thorp demonstrated that a side was more likely than the other one and, surprise, only the Player's side got a small positive edge over the house (0.33% or so). Banker side remained negative no matter what.

More recent studies (always apllied to pc simulations) have shown the in very rare occasions some shoe distributions could get the Banker the 51.3% cutoff probability capable to erase and invert the negative HE. Unfortunately being so much restricted that it's considered as worthless.

Everybody here knows that a card counting technique cannot be a viable option to overcome the negative BP edge.
But at least we may conclude that baccarat is not made by independent successions and that even though B>P, one study showed that the only profitable situation to be ahead of the game is by waiting a strong deficit of Player positive cards.

Another eminent gambling expert, James Grosjean, stated that "the game is symmetric so that are no cards that massively favor one bet or the other".

Actually and knowing the average asymmetrical key cards impact acting at every live shoe dealt we should transform the above statement into "the game is so symmetrical that asymmetrical spots will tend to get more probable cutoff values than expected".
And of course B/P values tend to be way less predictable than A/B models.

B/P classifications must consider a BP distribution acting at every hand dealt without any previous consideration, yet A/B models could start the registration after precise situations had arised (or not).

I mean that the more hands we must classify to get a A/B result, higher will be the probability to get A after B or B after A.

Consider this shoe sequence:

PPPPP
BB
P
BBBBB
P
B
BB
PPP
BBB
PPPP
...
as a

A
B
A
B
AA
BBB
A
B
A
BBB
A
BB
A
BB
A
B
A
B
A
B
succession.

We transformed the BP sequence into a AB succession by a  simple mechanical way.

Are we more favored to detect the AB sequence than the BP original sequence?

What about very long term situations?

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 04, 2021, 11:07:01 PM
Hint: streaks of any lenght are going to our favor no matter what and for that matter most part of chopping situations or short patterns will go to our favor too.
It's a strict math based evaluation plan challenging sym spots vs asym spots.

as. 

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on July 05, 2021, 03:14:56 AM
Thx AsymBacGuy

I appreciate the explanations/example.

I like your #two sentence:

"...#2: math values work only at real random propositions, yet we can assume that such randomness doesn't affect most part of live shoes dealt. ..."


Continued Success,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on July 06, 2021, 02:18:26 PM
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on July 04, 2021, 11:07:01 PM
Hint: streaks of any lenght are going to our favor no matter what and for that matter most part of chopping situations or short patterns will go to our favor too.
It's a strict math based evaluation plan challenging sym spots vs asym spots.

as.

Certain things will happen and will not happen, no matter what. 

If its being presented, wager on it.  If not, don't  wager on it. 

There is a huge difference in what I am saying versus trying to change the presentments. 

Alrelax
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 07, 2021, 12:06:18 AM
Quote from: alrelax on July 06, 2021, 02:18:26 PM
Certain things will happen and will not happen, no matter what. 

If its being presented, wager on it.  If not, don't  wager on it. 

There is a huge difference in what I am saying versus trying to change the presentments. 

Alrelax

Sure, but everything comes out by a degree of probability.

If every member here will bet toward the 3+ BP streaks probability on the next shoe dealt at Wynn casino right now, he knows he/she'll get an average 8.6 number of 3+ BP streaks probability.
This value is extracted not by considering Wynn shoes shuffled in precise circumstances, but by considering well shuffled shoes.
Of course there are additional features to take into account, the number of cards cut off from the play or the coincidental very long streak appearance, for example.

I guess that the probability that a player will get zero-1-2-3 or 13 or more 3+ BP streaks on that shoe is insignificantly low.
Up to the point that we can assign to those probabilites an almost zero value.

Of course I'll be in better shape to predict how many 3+ streaks will come out on average after a given shoe sample was registered.

Anyway let's suppose casinos want to voluntarily restrict or enlarge whimsically this value in order to confuse players' plans.
That's a worthless move.

As long as BP results are transformed into AB outcomes, the hands predictability remains ridiculously high.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 12, 2021, 01:32:40 AM
Baccarat is the only gambling game where some (rare) selected bets will get the player an astounding positive EV, best bj counters at the most favourable opportunities cannot think to get this huge advantage.

Whenever a shoe is somewhat biased by a lack of perfect randomness (say almost everytime), the player will get a sure indeniable edge.
Unfortunately most part of shoes will present a too tiny non random feature, making such non random results as a kind of random results succession.

The reason is about the average biased card distribution affecting most of the BP results but way less the AB limited random walk successions considered by mathematicians as totally independent from each other besides their general probability to happen.
Of course a perfect random card distribution cannot get valuable hints at any derived r.w. we wish to put in action.

It's like that per each shoe played we're challenging the actual distribution to get or not for long some general more likely AB situations after a given deviation appeared at the same terms.
A feature not exploitable whenever a shoe is perfect randomly dealt, but most of the times this thing cannot happen.

as.   
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 13, 2021, 11:27:46 PM
Let's try to clarify the issue.

Itlr simple B and P successions cannot be beaten by any means as they are too way affected by variance, that is by the actual card distribution that we know not being randomly placed as we think. Moreover B and P probabilities are dynamically moving hand per hand very often giving a fk about the general B/P probability.
Therefore nearly half of the times we'll be right and the remaning half we'll be wrong, all wagers burdened by the math negative edge.

If we try to select B and P results by registering longer patterns, we're increasing our chances of success but almost always not to the point of erasing and inverting the HE as the actual card distribution is the king (or queen).

A sophisticated progression could make us winners for long but it can't erase the invariable probability to lose everything (and more), it's just a matter of time.

Hence imo the Big Road is one of the worst successions to look for to get hints before betting.
In fact our data say that the probability to be long term ahead by betting even selectively B and P hands is zero.
I'm not rot ruling out the possibility that some very experienced players can be ahead even by betting BP hands but I guess it's a very remote probability.

Then what should make baccarat as a beatable game?

The average shoe card composition affecting sd values of certain situations not strictly belonging to BP hands.
The more we're waiting for a given AB deviation to show up, higher wil be our EV on our bets, up to the point that we are kind of facing a Bingo game, now impersonating the casino's side.

I'm implying that it'll be way more likely to get ridiculous low sd values after a given expected event hadn't come out one or two times than to steadily wager toward positive situations.   

Curiously, the probability to cross those astounding EV+ spots is more or less equiparable to the probability to get valuable positive card counting situations happening at bj.
Now with a way higher positive expectancy and of course by taking into account very different issues.

It's not that difficult to grasp how to transform BP successions into some AB sequences capable to get very low sd values.

Next time we'll see the general principles how to do that.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on July 14, 2021, 06:04:25 PM
Good post AsymBacGuy

"...I'm implying that it'll be way more likely to get ridiculous low sd values after a given expected event hadn't come out one or two times than to steadily wager toward positive situations.  ..."


Continued Success,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: Albalaha on July 18, 2021, 06:23:41 AM
Hmm. So this topic is nearing conclusion finally:
QuoteHence imo the Big Road is one of the worst successions to look for to get hints before betting.
In fact our data say that the probability to be long term ahead by betting even selectively B and P hands is zero.
I'm not rot ruling out the possibility that some very experienced players can be ahead even by betting BP hands but I guess it's a very remote probability.

Then what should make baccarat as a beatable game?
[/b][/color]
Only way is a sensible money management that is dynamic enough to handle the worst with least damage(if it loses everything that it won in good or average times, it is not a money management at all)and win thereafter without seeking clumping or compensatory wins. All the rest approaches are like chasing a mirage. It will always appear very close to reach while it is nowhere actually.
      No betselection will win by itself betting flat or with positive progressions.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 19, 2021, 01:04:49 AM
Thanks KFB!

@Alba
Baccarat is not a game of math results, baccarat is a game of card distributions favoring this or that.
Even a portion of a black jack deck astoundingly rich of high cards could be not profitable for the player whether those high cards are confined at the unplayable portion of it.
Who knows if cards are (voluntarily or not) shuffled in this way repeatedly?

At baccarat this problem doesn't exist as almost all cards are utilized and of course we can bet whenever we want.
It will be the time that baccarat decks will be played 'Montecarlo style' that is cutting off from the play a lot of cards.

No matter how weird a deck is shuffled, especially whether a kind of non randomness is acting, at some points of most shoes some patterns will be more likely than others by a likelihood surpassing the general probability values and, more importantly, the negative EV.

Let's consider the easiest BP succession then trying to compare it to the actual BP distribution in order to build a new 'road' (S=same result, O=opposite result)

BPBPBPBPBPBPBPBPBPBPBPBPBPBPBPBP........

BBBBPPBPPBPPPBPBPPBBBPPPPBPBPPB (actual shoe)

we'll get:

S
O
S
O
SSS
OOO
S
OOOOO
SS
O
SS
O
S
OOOOO
SS

Notice that instead of comparing the actual shoe with a BPBPBP succession we could use an original scheme starting with a P (that is an infinite PBPBPBPBPBPB sequence) anyway nothing will change as now S are O and vice versa.

Of course and depending upon which original scheme we'll use, actual long chopping shoe situations will translate into univocal S or O long streaks.

Other actual shoe patterns as

BB
PP
BB
PP
BB
PP
BB
PP...

become (BPBP original scheme)

S
OO
SS
OO
SS
OO
SS
OO
S

or (PBPB original scheme)

O
SS
OO
SS
OO
SS
OO
SS
O

If unlikely shoes provide a kind of

BBB
PPP
BBB
PPP
BBB
PPP  sequence, we'll get

S
O
SS
O
SS
O
SS
O
SS
O
SS
O
S

or the specular

O
S
OO
S
OO
S
OO
S
OO
S
OO
S
OO
S
O  counterpart

Do not waste your time to find out which shoe sequences will provide long consecutive S or O streaks: those situations are happening whenever a strong balanced BP succession will come out as

B
P
B
PP
B
P
BB
P
B
P....

forming a

SSSS
OOOO
SSSS... sequence

To cut a long story short, this simple tool will help us to find how "balanced" is the card distribution acting at every shoe dealt, knowing that under normal circumstances (live shoes) long balanced situations are restricted within countable values. Meaning that sooner or later they'll be disregarded, especially if we're restricting the field of our operations into 1,2 and 3 S/O outcomes.
Streaks and singles distribution is the answer.

Whenever a 3+ BP streak will happen (and we know that shoes not producing at least one 3+ streak at either side are very very very very unlikely to happen, say it's an almost zero occurence) S or O streaks of such limited lenght must shift.

In some way we're challenging bac shoes to produce balanced card distributions for long, a thing that for obvious reasons cannot happen in the vast majority of situations.

Consider this registration as an additional derived road to look for. Check out your live data and let me know.
Streaks and singles.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on July 19, 2021, 01:57:36 AM
As ASYM said in the post above:
"Baccarat is not a game of math results, baccarat is a game of card distributions favoring this or that."


I add:

Exactly.  And once a player is well acclimated with the game of baccarat, he can generally find that those very distributions are contained within Sections.

Problem continually arising is the change of the presentments or the extended continuance no one believes is actually happening. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: Albalaha on July 19, 2021, 05:34:59 AM
QuoteBaccarat is not a game of math results, baccarat is a game of card distributions favoring this or that.

This is like a revelation !
           I thought it is a totally random game based upon mathematical calculations and house edge and payouts slightly favoring casinos. I never knew that it was meant to do card distributions. How about roulette? That is meant to teach how a ball moves over a rim and gets into 37/38 pockets? Might be to educate people about laws of motion.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 20, 2021, 10:58:46 PM
Everyone here or there can bet his/her a.s.s that live baccarat shoes are not perfect randomly shuffled.

And we can't give a lesser damn whether math formulas state otherwise. Mathematicians write formulas, we play the game. And as long as we are heavy long term winners such math statements go right into the toilet.
Especially after having implemented our plans by a couple of statistical tools studied in the past by eminent authors.
 
It's virtually impossible to shuffle 416 cards randomly.
Thus at some points of certain shoes (not all shoes dealt) something is well more likely than what the fkng general probability dictates.
Cards are removed, I mean key cards removed cannot come again and when they are 'live' they can't disappear so distributing itlr in a more likely way.

On average, a shoe will distribute back to back results very differently whether key cards are concentrated or diluted, yet the number of key cards is finite as well as the number of hands dealt per shoe. 

That makes baccarat a very different game than roulette where each spin is totally independent from the previous one and the possible non random features are very very hard to detect (assuming they're really acting).
(An exception was found at certain Interblock automated wheels where rotor speed and ball speed sequences were somewaht detectable, yet low sums of money can be wagered there and the general HE to overcome remains -5.26%)

We've already seen that transforming a 'random' BP succession into 'derived' sequences will get itlr different "general" patterns depending upon which pace of BP results we've decided to take as a trigger.

Naturally and as Alrealx pointed out several times here, a 'more likely attitude' is acting just when it seems to act at the actual shoe we're playing at.

Take the cockroach derived road as an example.
By far and among the three derived roads displayed on the screen, this road will get the higher amount of longer streaks, but it's not that unlikely that this road will form very long single and double results with just one or a couple of 3+s streaks.

In our opinion and according to our long term data, CR is the worst succession to get hints from as it's triggered by a quite large amount of actual hands.
In some way too diluting or too concentrating a possible key card impact.

Actually CR is the only one derived road succession among the common three DR's not giving us a long term advantage by flat betting as too influenced by positive or negative variance.

It's like the ancient 'in medio stat virtus (the right position is in the middle) quote takes its full meaning even at baccarat.
At baccarat we could translate this quote into discarding Big Road results and CR results.

Of course there are additional sub successions to look for, I've provided the BPBPBP... original scheme and there are infinitely others.

The advantage of setting up a derived road by utilizing a BPBP...orginal sequence compared to the actual shoe sequence is that non random card distrubutions will get more likely the production of 3+ streaks.
We know that live shoes are way affected by a higher percentage of long BP streaks than pc samples.

If this streaks probability is somewhat endorsed, we know that the AB probability will form shorter and more detectable patterns as sooner or later such 3+ streak must happen.

In fact a BBB or PPP sequence compared to a BPB... or PBP... original scheme will form respectively a ABA and BAB sequence or a BAB and ABA sequence.

Of course the losing counterpart comes out when a BPBP... original sequence will collide or coincide with an actual BPBP (AAAA) or PBPB (BBBB) situation.

Good news is that itlr non random shoes will form more likely BP streaks of some lenght than BP long patterns of singles and doubles.

It would be hard to accept this statement unless a careful long live data compared with pc data were attained.

After all pc samples are not placing phisically, live shoes will.

I mean that itlr the number of shoes richer than average of AB streaks will be lower than the number of shoes poor of those AB streaks.

It's up to us to select the possible profitable situations to bet at, knowing that not evry shoe and/or not every shoe sequence is bettable.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on July 22, 2021, 02:44:32 PM
Hi AsymBacGuy

Good essay/thx.

Can u please expand on these sentences a little more as Im not 100% clear? Thx in advance.

"...We've already seen that transforming a 'random' BP succession into 'derived' sequences will get itlr different "general" patterns depending upon which pace of BP results we've decided to take as a trigger.

Naturally and as Alrealx pointed out several times here, a 'more likely attitude' is acting just when it seems to act at the actual shoe we're playing at. ..."


Continued Success,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 25, 2021, 11:05:38 PM
Hi KFB!

"...We've already seen that transforming a 'random' BP succession into 'derived' sequences will get itlr different "general" patterns depending upon which pace of BP results we've decided to take as a trigger.


Ok, take the cockroach road.
Long red or blue streaks come out whenever strong symmetrical 3-paced patterns or strong asymmetrical one-way BP streaks come out of the blue.
In either way red and blue singled and doubles patterns are slight less likely to happen.
In some way and since long b or r streaks tend to come out consecutively at this derived road, we may deduce that more often than not a quite diluted pace of registration tend to get strong polarized key card distribution in a way or another.
But notice that at this road just one hand that went 'wrong' will affect decisevely the next distributions.

Summarizing, the cr is the best indicator about how much key cards are concentrated or diluted along any shoe.
Then it's up to us to assess whether a single or a series of  'key' results was/were mathematically shifted to prolong a b or r streak or to cut it off.

Think that we can build additional derived roads getting a 4-pace or 5-pace registration...

The other two d.r's tend to be so stable to provide certain more likely outcomes for long or to provide some back to back situations that it's virtually impossible to state that 'baccarat is a game of non detectable patterns' (a careful reading of my unb plans would help).
I mean that at those two d.r.'s we can't give a lesser fk about how things have actually developed from a two-card math point of view.

In the improbable event that casinos will think that derived roads could be a valuable tool for players, so not directly displaying them on the screen, we know that an infinite different random walks registration will make the same job now at more precise values.
And we do not need to write them on paper.

The perfect plan would be to spot a betting line capable to get 7-10 all W sequences per shoe that must come out by a well higher degree of probability than what math values dictate.
Of course we need to wager two times each spot toward getting a more likely scenario.
And naturally whenever a shoe starts with a negative spot, we can't reach that aim.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 25, 2021, 11:22:39 PM
BTW, Alrelax stated that no matter how things develop at the start, most shoes are producing 'turning points' capable to get the player a kind of an edge.

Knowing his vast experience on the subject (and he's used to play serious money and not $10 bets), I tend to give him a lot of credit, after all Al is one of the few players I'd bet my money with.
Probably he's one of the few best opportunistic guys that tries to get the best of those rare situations occurring, meaning that it's the person capable to quit the table as a huge winner.

as.   

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on July 26, 2021, 12:58:20 AM
Two things come instantly to mind reference your last few posts.  Copy and pasted from a post of mine.

1)   First and foremost, anything and everything can continue or cease within a shoe;

5)  You cannot adjust your emotional level on the better and larger wins (and losses) as easy as you might believe you can. This is super important and that emotional level will send you into another realm of belief, that you should not be in and one you cannot understand at the table.

Alrelax.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 26, 2021, 02:35:34 AM
Quote from: alrelax on July 26, 2021, 12:58:20 AM
Two things come instantly to mind reference your last few posts.  Copy and pasted from a post of mine.

1)   First and foremost, anything and everything can continue or cease within a shoe;

5)  You cannot adjust your emotional level on the better and larger wins (and losses) as easy as you might believe you can. This is super important and that emotional level will send you into another realm of belief, that you should not be in and one you cannot understand at the table.

Alrelax.

1) Very true, yet a larger than 50% probability is going to produce more likely patterns along the way. Not at every shoe dealt, of course.
For example, it'll be way more difficult for a shoe to produce a larger than average number of 3+ streaks of any nature than the opposite situation (shoes short of 3+ streaks).

5) That's completely true regardless.

as.

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on July 26, 2021, 03:36:09 AM
Hi AsymBacGuy
Thx for your elaborate response in reply#369 above. I  agree/especially with the last 3-4 sentences.

"... The perfect plan would be to spot a betting line capable to get 7-10 all W sequences per shoe that must come out by a well higher degree of probability than what math values dictate.
Of course we need to wager two times each spot toward getting a more likely scenario.
And naturally whenever a shoe starts with a negative spot, we can't reach that aim.  ..."


Also , in the paragraph regarding the cockroach road(CR).

"... Summarizing, the cr is the best indicator about how much key cards are concentrated or diluted along any shoe.
Then it's up to us to assess whether a single or a series of  'key' results was/were mathematically shifted to prolong a b or r streak or to cut it off. ..."


I've read much of what u have written re: the CR road.

This is an area my skillset needs to improve.  I agree with much of your writings re: the CR road /its potential for  suggesting certain future events being more(or less) likely.

However, my difficulty is in being able to assign a specific(numerical value) on that perceived  increase(or decrease) probability % to a degree that would affect my decision prior to the very next event. Of course , ex post facto--Im 100% accurate just like everybody else at the table.  :)
Thx for writing on this topic.




Continued Success,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 28, 2021, 12:22:13 AM
Hi KFB and thanks!

If you want to beat this fkng game itlr you are in the right section. :-)

Whether cards would be so randomly distributed, the 7 WIAR situations will face the opposite losing counterpart and we can't expect to win anything.
At the actual live spots, this probability will be either diminished or endorsed by studying the first patterns.
Remember we need a moderate key card clumping to happen along any shoe to get the best of it, strong or too diluted clumps tend to produce too polarized and/or whimsical subsequent situations in either way.

Depending upon which random walk you choose to use, the appearance of streaks of certain lenght teach us that key cards are clumped at different speeds.

It's particularly helpful to know that when the average number of streaks of certain lenght per shoe is X,  odds are that itlr we'll get on average a higher amount of shoes showing more likely an inferior than superior number than X.

Therefore streaks appearing at the initial portions of the shoe must be considered as a key card clumping, especially whether such streaks are consecutively placed.
We know that portions of the shoe particularly rich of key cards more often than not tend to deny a moderate subsequent key card distribution as the key card/remaining cards ratio is hugely shifted toward the right. Meaning results will be more affected by short term undetectable variance.

Cockroach road.

This road is one of the best example why results are sensitive to probability after events and place selection tools both denying a perfect randomness.
And/or a flaw of the game, of course.

Few players follow this road, probably as it's visually more difficult to track than other d.r.'s or simply as it starts very late in the shoe.

Cockroach road is relying about the probability to get symmetrical (red spots) or asymmetrical (blue spots) taken at a 3-pace along the way.
It's the most volatile road we could track of, sometimes we'll get almost singles and doubles, at other occasions multiple consecutive long streaks show up.
It's this feature that could get us hints about how a shoe is distributed.

Since at this road the quite long asymmetrical and symmetrical situations tend to be more clustered than at other roads, we could infer that the remaining part of asym/sym single streaks tend to stay more isolated than clustered.
Therefore if 2+ tend to be followed by 2+, 1 should be followed by at least another 1.

Counterintuitive but it works.

So consider a given red or blue streak of certain lenght happening at cr. Wait until this streak had come out isolated (that is not followed by a perfect streak of the same opposite lenght).
Now bet toward getting another isolated b or r streak accordingly to the previous streak happened.
Just one time, even knowing that a fair percentage of shoes will provide a chain of isolated streaks.

Itlr the 1-1 vs 1-X situations will get a ridiculously low variance not fitting the fkng general values under normal circumstances.

But say casinos know this bet selection trying to get infinite isolated single streak patterns followed by consecutive streaks of the same lenght happening at cr.
Really? That's the perfect negation of statistical laws, and btw it's impossible to arrange cards to get this or that belonging to a specular plan for long and by a 3-paced interval.
What about other roads?

You can be 100% certain that some patterns will be more likely than others, giving a lesser fk about what math dictates.
Next time we'll see many other spots getting an astounding probability to appear, no matter how the s.tu.pi.d math experts keep to state.

as.   
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on July 29, 2021, 05:01:42 AM
Hi AsymBacGuy
Thx for CR examples. 

"...Next time we'll see many other spots getting an astounding probability to appear, no matter how the s.tu.pi.d math experts keep to state. ..."

Looking forward to the next post



Continued Success,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 01, 2021, 10:56:10 PM
Hi KFB!

There are several ways to register results and, more importantly, to dispute the real randomness of the outcomes.

So far we've seen registrations made on BP or AB lenght sequences, maybe restricted within more likely situations.

Now we take the issue from another perspective, that is the lenght of either singled or streaky occurences happening along any shoe.

We already know that Big Road is full of bighorn.stuff, the maximum example of results too much sensitive of weird situations that cannot help us by a sufficient degree of precision.
In this post we'll talk about cockroach road (cr).

Preface

Any common derived road is made upon a mechanical comparison of what happened in the past (ties ignored) by different intervals, the original source being the same BP sequence.
We know for sure that when talking about cr successions, long live baccarat data present different features than long live roulette data.
In the former class B>P but red=blue whereas at roulette N=R, O=E and H=L, yet red=blue.

Therefore the red and blue spots number is equally distributed at both games despite of the different source's nature (asymmetrical at baccarat, symmetrical at roulette).

This is a kind of paradox, as itlr asymmetrical games must get different results than symmetrical games,  no matter how deep we would classify the outcomes; it's like that when something happened at baccarat will temporarily affect future results way more than a perfect independent game as roulette will do.

Cr single and streak consecutive results classification

Say the cr distribution looks as

r
b
rr
bbbb
rrrrrrr
b
rr
b
r
b
rrrr
bb
r
bbbb
rr
bbbbb...

translating into a 2,3,1,1,3,2,1,3... succession.

We can't give a lesser fk whether itlr 1s, 2s and 3s consecutive single or streak successions will get the same proportional amount than expected, actually it's what we should expect.
What it should really interest us is the gap between same values appearance at the same fkng shoe we're playing at, being the most reliable parameter to look for, knowing that single and streak successions must be somewhat dependent from the actual shoe distribution.

Cr is the best common derived road to look for as being strong polarized to get this or that at some spots of the shoe.

In addition notice that playing toward 1s, 2s or 3s gaps doesn't mean to chase a preordered scheme as the actual shoe is addressing our betting plan. Moreover, such numbers aren't polarized to get a given outcome as a couple of three (or more) singles in a row must be considered the same as a couple or three (or more) streaks in a row, no matter how's their lenght.

If you test your live shoes, you'll soon see that there's a constant relationship between a previous sequence of some lenght and the probability to get a given outcome on the next results.

When a pattern getting dishomogeneous features taken at either both opposite ways doesn't come out at an asymmetrical and poor randomly distributed game, probabilities dictate that more often than not the state tends to remain more silent than average.

I'll get more detailed info in a couple of days.

In the meanwhile check out the lenght of consecutive single and streak r and b spots happening at cr per each shoe.

Remember that 1=1, 2=2, but 3 or 25 or more must be still considered as 3.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 01, 2021, 11:25:43 PM
Examples.

Aria casino, LV, july 2017

Cr was:

bbb
r
bb
rrrr
bb
r
b
r
bb
r
b
rr
b
rr
bb
r
bbb
r
b
rr
b
r
b
rr
bbb
rrrrrrr
bbbbb
rr
b
r
bb
rrrrrr
bb
rr
b

that is a 1,1,3,3,1,2,1,1,2,1,1,2,1,3,3,2,3  succession

easy shoe :-)

Another one taken randomly, CP casino, LV september 2017

cr:

rr
bbb
rr
b
rr
bbbbbbb
rrr
bb
r
bbbb
rr
b
r
b
r
rr
b
r
b
rrrrrrr
b
r
b
r
bbb
r
b
rrr
bbb
rrr
bb

that is a 3,1,3,1,2,3,1,3,1,3,1,2,4 sequence

or this one, Aria casino, july 2017

cr:

bb
r
bb
r
bbb
r
bbb
r
bbbbbb
r
bbb
r
b
rt
bbbb
r
b
rrr
bb
r
b
r
bbbb
rrr
bb
r
bb
r
bbbb
r
b
rrrr
bb
rr

that is a 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,3,1,2,2,3,3,1,1,1,1,2,3 sequence

Finally an European casino surprisingly dealing 8-deck shoes (we needed a manual registration to convert the BR into the three common d.r.'s:

rr
bbb
r
bbb
rrrr
b
r
b
rr
bbb
r
b
rr
bbbb
rrr
bbb
rrr
b
rrr
b
r
b
rrr
bbbb
r
bbbb
rr
bbbb
rrrrrr
b

that is a 2,1,2,3,2,2,3,1,1,3,2,1,3 sequence

Easy way to predict what more likely should come next, huh?

as.   



 









Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 01, 2021, 11:40:15 PM
Take this one

Montecarlo casino, Principality of Monaco, may 2018 (8-deck shoe played very short)

bbb
r
bbbb
rrrrr
bbb
r
bbbb
rrr
bbbbbbb
rrr
bbbbbb
rrr
bbb
rr
b
r
b
rr
bbb

that is a 1,1,3,1,3,3,(2)...

At this shoe casino got almost every penny of the super high stakes playing there but us. I guess nobody of you would have crippled by wagering at this shoe. Providing to look for situations not belonging to the actual big road.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 04, 2021, 01:43:28 AM
So, how many of the above three situations can be silent for long?
What about a possible probability enhancement when the same class had appeared one time and vice versa?

We know that itlr cr triples will proportionally prevail over singles/doubles wholly considered.

Yes, it happens that some shoes will produce very few 3+s with a lot of singles/doubles, meaning that those shoes are formed by a high degree of key card dilution, a quite rare circumstance to happen.

Since 1s are pretty common anyway, we should concentrate our attention about 2s and 3s distribution.
In this way we're just placing one bet after a 2 apparition.
Either a 2 remains 2 or jumps to a 3.

Some shoes will present a long sequence of 2s? No problem, as we're placing a bet (fictionally or for real) after a 3 happened.
There will be several classes of gaps between a 3 and another 3 apparition.

0= no one 2 is interpolated between two 3s

1= one 2 happened between two 3s

2= two 2s happened between two 2s.

3= three or more 2s happened between two 3s

Of course we are more concerned with the first three possibilities, being the vast majority of situations.

This simple plan will put into the toilet the common general assumption that every bet will cross a 50% (or so) probability to succeed or fail.

In some way 3s are our watchdog to know how good or bad is shuffled the shoe we're playing at, moreover instructing us what will be the more likely gap between them.

In fact and at least at non random live shoes (the vast majority of them), after a 3 pattern showed up there's a slight propensity to get another 3 pattern quite soon (2s remain the trigger to start the betting).

Such spots will be so balanced along the way, especially by fictionally waiting a slight deviation on negative side of one or more gap classes, that you'll feel pity for casinos.

Be greedy, set up a proper bankroll and extract more money than you can before this fkng SARSCov2 will close again our offices.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 07, 2021, 10:52:30 PM
Mathematicians will say that no matter which spot we are taking as 'trigger', every bet will be EV negative.

A total fkng s.t.up.id bighornsh.it. A confirmation that math experts cannot get a single opportunity to beat baccarat.

At every baccarat shoe dealt, we're not going to bet fkng general probabilities.
Instead we are betting the actual card distribution compared to general values and the actual card distribution cannot be totally insensitive from the previous patterns. By any fkng means.

Compliance with the shoe we're playing at

The horizontal single/streak registration will get rid of the long B and P streaks, that is a B or P streak is a streak no matter how is long. Period.

On the other end, singles remain singles both in vertical and horizontal registrations.

Of course the 1,2 and 3s single/streak consecutiveness will move around more likely general patterns, but it's the actual presentation of some categories that will enhance the probability to get this or that.

For example, whenever a 3+ sequence of any nature will happen at the start of the shoe (cr road), odds are that another 3+ sequence will happen very shortly at the same shoe, naturally those patterns must be considered after a 2 trigger pattern got place.
Taken the issue by another perspective, as long as no 3+ patterns hadn't show up, 1s and 2s tend to form longer clusters than expected, many times not crossing a proportional negative 3s part canceling the profits we got before.

Since it's virtually impossibile to get a proper EV+ compliance at every shoe played (no matter how fast a 3 will happen along a given shoe), some bac pros will take into account how many gaps will come between 3s (taking as negative as any 2 appearance happening after a 3).

As sayed before and taking as neutral 1s, the probability to get 0 vs superior patterns or 1 vs superior patterns or 2 vs superior pattenrs will be so quite balanced that even a kind of strong progression will get the best of it.

Translating, 3-3 or 3-2-3 or 3-2-2-3 cr patterns will get astounding low sd values than what a binomial proposition will dictate.

Notice that we can't hope to get this propensity acting for the entire shoe, we just need to select what happens after the first 3 happened at the actual shoe.

Itlr our live shoes data instruct us to know that the probability to get back to back higher than 0 or 1 '3s' gaps for long at cr road is almost not existent, providing at least a 3 happened at the first half of the shoe.

Well, if things tend to come out in this way at cr road, what about the two other common derived roads?

More importantly what about a cumulative betting plan taking into account ALL common derived roads as a whole?

Next time we'll discuss this.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: 8OR9 on August 08, 2021, 12:53:51 PM
I haven't been keeping up with this thread ....but as far as finding statistical anomalies in a bac shoe.....   I think you have to also consider the practicality of the method.........if the anomalies only present themselves for 2   or 3 or 4 or 5 bets a shoe, you have to consider if it is worthwhile to sit at a table for an hour or an hour and a half waiting for those situations to appear for a bet while inhaling about three packs of second hand cigarette smoke (smoking will be reinstated after Covid......casinos do not care if the dealers and employees and customers get  sick from the smoke....all they care about is if they can make more profit with a smoking casino versus a non smoking casino )

Also,  in an 80 hand shoe of baccarat, do you think you can sit there for an hour and a half and only bet 3 or 4 hands without the pit boss or dealer saying something?

Best place to play the method is at a casino with Stadium baccarat, where it is all electronic betting with a live dealer and you can sit out as many hands as you feel like.



Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 08, 2021, 08:57:56 PM
Hi 8or9!

Yep, your considerations make a lot of sense but think that the very few people making money (a lot of it) at this game are waiting rare profitable opportunities to show up.

Baccarat should be considered as black jack: hours of boredom (negative counts) with rare peaks of good situations (positive counts).

Here we play the average card distribution biased by a kind of improper shuffle and of course the average edge is way higher than at bj positive counting spots.

Nothing prevent us to play 'for fun' at a standard unit 10-20 or more times lower than at key hands.
Alrelax made a lot of posts about his 'turning points' topic involving more hands to play.

You're right: Stadium baccarat is the best place to adopt this strategy. Nobody gives a fk about our play.

After all having fun and/or getting a good time and consistently winning is anthitetical by definition.

Take care

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 08, 2021, 11:35:23 PM
Quite interesting but not so surprising at all is to realize that propensities happening at cr road (there are many, I've made just the 'easiest' example) don't show up at the other d.r.'s.
In a sense we got a direct 'falsification of the hypothesis' so appreciated by scientists.

Thus if the appearance of a given pattern registered by a given pace will slightly promote the appearance of another pattern formed by the same qualities, once we change the pace of registration this propensity must change too.
This reasoning totally collide with the 'independent nature of the outcomes' so beloved by mathematicians.
We are talking about patterns and not about rank cards, of course.

And actually the propensity we've investigated so far neutralizes at another road and tend to invert its features at the remaining third d.r.

Now the question is: are we going to get a greater propensity of some kind when we're trying to merge the common three d.r.'s together?

The answer is YES.

At first glance this should constitute a paradox: when proper situations arise and taking into account the issue discussed so far A>B at one road, A=B at another road and B>A at the final road.
What could be interesting is that we cannot have means to know the 'intensity' of the diverse propensities happening along any shoe.

It's the average global intensity that gives us precious hints about when more likely patterns are going to occur and as you well know we just need to be one step ahead per every playable shoe.

So we must find a cumulative random walk capable to get spots accounting values overcoming the opposite part. Meaning we're estimating quite carefully the actual card distribution.

Maybe some examples will help.
Next time.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on August 10, 2021, 01:52:44 PM
I have some great great examples from last night of some shoes with actual pictures of the scoreboard. 

I will post them when I get a chance to make the notes and do some editing. I'll try to get it done tonight.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 10, 2021, 08:33:11 PM
Ok, while waiting for Al shoes I'll make a simpler and more manageable example about the last issue.

Forget derived road, random walks and whatever and consider Big Road always in term of singles and streaks gaps.
Our aim will be to get just one statistical situation, that is getting a 3 (instead of a double) at the start of the shoe, then betting just one time whenever a 3 or any 3 had come out.
In a word, 1s do not interest us, we are still opposing 3s to 2s but now and differently to the above derived roads plan, here we're adding the very first 2 or 3 appearance just to make things faster (of course making more gambling in our plan).

Therefore positive spots will be when at the start of any shoe a 3 will come out instead of a 2, then we need a 3 appearance to bet toward a consecutive 3 (as opposde to a 2); any 3-2-3 or 3-2-2-3 o any other longer 3 gap will be considered as a loser.

I've stressed about the importance to not consider Big Road as a direct reliable source of results, anyway and no matter how will be the edge by wagering this plan (as being too diluted, that is needing too many shoes to observe), we decide to play a more risky plan by adopting a progression.

We choose the Jae's progression, Oscar grind, that is staying at the same betting level unless a win come out then if we're losing, we raise the bet by one unit until we've recovered the deficit.

So a x-3 sequence happening at the start of the shoe is a win and any 3-3 pattern (without 2s in the middle) is a win too.

Anything different from that is a loss, that is when a 2 come out at the start of the shoe and/or a 3 is not followed by another 3 but by a 2.

Again 1s are considered neutral, our triggers come whenever two homogeneous situations (singles or streaks) had come out.

My data suggest that the probability to get long losing situations without getting a proper winning patterns is not existent at all. Especially if we stop the betting plan at 0 level.

The fact that I've added the very first pattern happening without previous info, makes impossible to arrange cards to get more 2s than 3s as cards are burnt accordingly to the first exposed card quality.

In a word the 0/S ratio (0= first 3 and/or consecutive 3s; S=superior gaps) are moving around a strong balanced world (very low sd values), no matter how whimsically are shuffled the cards.
That's because S spots are less likely itlr.

There are many additional factors to increase our already strong probability of success, we'll see them next week.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on August 11, 2021, 04:43:23 PM
Thx AsymBacGuy
Youre doing a great job detailing the CR. I appreciate your thorough explanations/then also giving us examples to make your points.


One sentence Im not 100% comprehending  and need a little extra clarification on:

"...In a word the 0/S ratio (0= first 3 and/or consecutive 3s; S=superior gaps) are moving around a strong balanced world (very low sd values), no matter how whimsically are shuffled the cards.   ..."

Can you give an example for the words in BOLD. Thank you.


Continued Success,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: Albalaha on August 12, 2021, 05:06:24 AM
Mathematicians could not succeed to beat baccarat due to inability to think rationally apart from thinking straight mathematically. No amount of mathematical progression be it arithmetic or geometric could beat the billions of probability baccarat or any other game of chance could offer in terms of Wins and losses. One size fits all type things could not work. I read an interview of Prof Thorpe who did beat blackjack. He said even if you have a billion chips you can not guarantee win. He wasn't wrong or Einstein wasn't wrong in their conclusions. Simple math has nothing to offer in beating a game of chance without having infinite chips. Martingale or Fibonacci or Labouchere can beat any session mathematically but the amount of chips they might seek in the most adverse periods make them impractical to be used. However, there are number of ways this problem could be solved. I have created a few money management that can survive even 5 SD below mean without seeking thousands of chips and win thereafter in average times, without seeking clumping wins. Anybody can achieve that thinking logically too, apart from thinking mathematically.   
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on August 13, 2021, 03:50:39 PM
Hi Albalaha

"...I have created a few money management that can survive even 5 SD below mean without seeking thousands of chips and win thereafter in average times, without seeking clumping wins...."   


I have created a few money management that can survive even 5 SD below mean
     I believe you as I know u have been working diligently on this or related project for many years.Congrats.


that can survive even 5 SD below mean without seeking thousands of chips and win thereafter in average times, without seeking clumping wins...."  

     Q1: Does your method win proportionally more for surviving additional SDs of - Variance? e.g., Would your net earnings for surviving a -5SD shoe vs a -3SD shoe be 5:3 ?  or other ratio?   

     Q2: Another way of viewing it since you do a negpro: Im obviously guessing one needs a proportionality of more chips to survive a -5SD shoe vs lets say a -3SD shoe (e.g., Chips needed for -5sd=50 and chips needed for -3sd=30,...etc or whatever ___________) ?
     So my question: Is this(#chips required) somewhat proportional and a f(x) of the number of -SD one chooses to survive. If yes give an example.



Thx/continued success.

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: Albalaha on August 14, 2021, 08:24:34 AM
QuoteQ1: Does your method win proportionally more for surviving additional SDs of - Variance? e.g., Would your net earnings for surviving a -5SD shoe vs a -3SD shoe be 5:3 ?  or other ratio?   

 Answer:It could be either way. It all depends upon the stretch of the ugly phase as well as its shape.

    Q2: Another way of viewing it since you do a negpro: Im obviously guessing one needs a proportionality of more chips to survive a -5SD shoe vs lets say a -3SD shoe (e.g., Chips needed for -5sd=50 and chips needed for -3sd=30,...etc or whatever ___________) ?
     So my question: Is this(#chips required) somewhat proportional and a f(x) of the number of -SD one chooses to survive. If yes give an example.


Answer: Definitely. Chips required to survive 5 SD has to be more than that is required to handle 3 SD. What kind of question is this? Fuel required to go 100Kms has to be more than that for going 10Kms but again as in the case of car moving on a busy street and on a highway things vary.

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 16, 2021, 10:54:47 PM
Quote from: KungFuBac on August 11, 2021, 04:43:23 PM
Thx AsymBacGuy
Youre doing a great job detailing the CR. I appreciate your thorough explanations/then also giving us examples to make your points.


One sentence Im not 100% comprehending  and need a little extra clarification on:

"...In a word the 0/S ratio (0= first 3 and/or consecutive 3s; S=superior gaps) are moving around a strong balanced world (very low sd values), no matter how whimsically are shuffled the cards.   ..."

Can you give an example for the words in BOLD. Thank you.


Continued Success,

Hi KFB!!

Obviously the 3 pattern must affect in some way the following patterns belonging to certain categories, it's the probability after events and place selection probability working at full degree.
Thus we must set up the 'limiting values of relative frequency' of certain outcomes capable to get results more balanced or, even better, more oriented to get a back to back situation.

In a word, setting up multiple random walks more likely to form low variance lines.

We've seen that the small road, for example, can't get this feature and there's a reason for that.
Say 2 is a too low parameter and 3 is a too high parameter to look for low variance successions.

Under normal circumstances, Big road cannot give us a strategy to win by flat betting, nonetheless the 3 vs 2 'fighting'  provides interesting low sd values.

The fact that we're adding to our successions the first 3 appearance (as opposed as to any 2) represents a kind of gambling move, yet it's a move that tends to get more power to those 0-0-0-0...sequences more likely than S-S-S-S... ones.

That's because our live shoes data have shown that after a 0 (very first 3 appearance) more shoes will present a univocal 0-0-0...sequence than after any S situation happening at the start of the shoe.

Nobody here wants to disprove the total 3/2 mere patterns ratio, it remains the same. We just put some emphasis about the fact that the 3/2 distribution on certain random walks won't be so proportionally placed as mathematicians keep to state.

Of course whenever a 3 didn't happen at various stages of the shoe (especially at the very first spot), we may deduce that 3s are less likely than opposite 2s.
Not a sufficient reason to bet toward 2s...

After all 3s move the balancement 3/2 ratio acting at every shoe dealt toward one side and at measurable levels as at some random walks they are able to shift the future probability.

Since 3s can be accounted as three or more singles in a row AND/OR three or more streaks in a row and knowing that the average card distribution can't be proportionally placed along the vast majority of the shoes dealt (especially when cards are badly shuffled), the probability to get a proportional amount of 2s as opposed as 3s for long is not existent.
Providing to set up a limit of the actual distribution and we've seen that 0s vs Ss is the simplest way to get an edge.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 17, 2021, 12:10:10 AM
Let's make an example.

The actual shoe portion we're observing is:

B
PP
B
PPPPPP
BB
PPPP
B
PP
B
P
BBBBB
PPP
BB
P
B
PPPPP
B
PP
B
P
B
P...

That is a 1-1-1-3-1-1-2-3-2-1-1-1-3... sequence

This shoe will be classified as a 0-1-1 succession.

First outcome is a 3 and not a 2, then it's a 0 number; then we got a one '3 gap' (1) and again another one '3 gap' number (1).

No matter how things went at B/P registrations, we got a 0-1-1 succession.

Itlr 0s as opposed to S spots (1 or higher numbers) will get a very low variance to happen as cards cannot be distributed for long to get precise cutoff points stopping at the 2 level.
This thing (multiple 2s in a row) can happen more likely when the first outcome is not a 3 (1s being considered as neutral) for the reasons illustrated above.

Even considering the worst random walk we can register (Big Road) this BS could be so reliable that shoes forming a 3 at the very start of the shoe or a back to back 3 pattern (1s ignored) will get for the patient player astounding low variance values up to the point that casinos will be our ATM.

Not mentioning that whenever a 3 fails to show up, more often than not we'll get an edge no matter what.
And we'll see this topic tomorrow.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on August 17, 2021, 03:29:40 PM
Thx AsymBacGuy for answering my question.

You have many excellent thoughts.


"...Thus we must set up the 'limiting values of relative frequency' of certain outcomes capable to get results more balanced or, even better, more oriented to get a back to back situation.

In a word, setting up multiple random walks more likely to form low variance lines.
..."


Continued Success,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 17, 2021, 11:19:41 PM
Thanks a lot KFB!

There's an advantage of taking into account 'back to back' situations as multiple different patterns will merge toward one of the three (or more) categories.

For example:

BB
P
BBB
P
BB

is 1-1-1-1...

or

B
P
B
P
B   is just a 3

as well as

BB
PPP
BBBB
PP
BB

(another 3)

Thus every shoe will be formed by a succession of numbers where there's a kind of relationship between numbers of different values, shoe per shoe.

We will get several classes of number clusters that by no means are getting the high variance typical of 'binomial' independent propositions.
Now we could serenely give a fk about the Banker propensity as acting too lightly here and there.
It's the average card distribution that counts (especially key cards) and we know that things vary enormously between shoes.

For example, say we want to track 1-1 patterns at a given random walk.
It doesn't take to be a rocket scientist to see that 1s tend to be more clustered than isolated as a kind of steady unbalancement must come out sooner or later.

Cards can produce whatever whimsical results somebody will think of, but 7s, 8s and 9s remain the main forces orienting the results.

Moreover when a given number category tend to be silent for a fair percentage of the shoe, generally odds that it'll 'catch up' in the next portions of it are lower than expected.
That's why we need to see at least one category to show up before starting the actual classification. (An exception was made about the very first 3 as opposed to 2).

Under selected situations happening at certain random walks, 3s variance will be so low that you'll be  bored to play and win at baccarat. 
But before thinking to quit baccarat consider to make investments as buying a Lamborghini Huracan or one of the Andre Agassi houses at Spanish Hills, Las Vegas ($2.2 M is the price but maybe it's already sold).

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 17, 2021, 11:23:41 PM
Nope you're fortunate, Agassi's house is still on sale... ^-^

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4944-Spanish-Heights-Dr-Las-Vegas-NV-89148/7148468_zpid/

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 22, 2021, 08:46:54 PM
Linked events

Best way to assess a possible advantage is by measuring various and different opposite situations, knowing their general probability to happen and comparing it with the specific shoe we're playing at.

By doing this several times we'll be able to get an idea whether our selection will be either right (EV+) or random (EV-).
Of course the concept of 'bad selection' besides a random selection can't be applied as it simply doesn't exist at all. 

Since the baccarat literature has taught us that no possible bets will be EV+, we're forced to think (or to hope) that 'random' world is not so randomly placed, thus that some events happening at any given shoe are somewhat linked to others.

The probability to get a linked event or not is naturally following the general laws, obviously some events are more likey than others (2-2 is more likely than  3-3, for example), the important thing to remember, imo, is that the actual card distribution tends to make certain patterns more sensitive to the previous distribution up to a point.

Since we do not want to fall into the realm of variance and knowing that best bac players like to bet just very few spots along any playable shoe, we start to consider the very first 'linked event' coming out along each shoe.
Then we'll set up our strategy accordingly.

Have to run, more on that later.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 23, 2021, 01:56:02 AM
Simply put, most of the times the first patterns of the shoe are a reliable indicator of what will be more likely to happen along that shoe.
Especially whether we're taking into account the very first back to back pattern class considered by various random walks.

Since I never ever tried to sell anything in years (probably I should, lol) you can give me a bit of credit of what I'm saying here.

Naturally patterns shape remains the main indicator to look for, nonetheless key card distribution is a powerful enhancer working for us.
And for that matter, even ties are playing a fair role on that. In some way shoes particularly rich of ties at the start should be considered as unplayable ones.

Shoe composition affecting dfferent random walks

Virtually speaking the probability that every shoe will not present a back to back same pattern on different random walks is zero.
I mean that at some point 1 must be followed by another 1 (2s and 3s as enemies), 2 by another 2 (3s as enemy) and 3 by another 3 (2s as enemy).
Naturally many 'colliding' spots will arise along the way, meaning that we do not know what will be the favorite line to get a back to back same pattern situation.

The single/streak registration I've suggested will help us to spot the situations where A should be more likely than B after a given 'delayed' back to back time elapsed.

For example, at byb road, the 1-2 back to back probability will be quite enhanced at various stages as back to back 3s are less common to happen than at cr road. Especiallly if no 3s happened in the first stages of that shoe.

Moreover and regardless of the road considered, what didn't happen tend to remain more silent than average, as the alternating shape of some outcomes will be the least probability to happen.

Up to some values, of course.

Say we are betting a given line that 1 remains 1, 2 remains 2 (instead of 3) and 3 remains 3 (instead of going back to 2).

If per any value considered at each random walk accounted we'll wait a 2 or 3 negative deviation, our bets  will get a positive expectation as heterogeneous opposite patterns can't last for long.

On the other end, back to back same patterns cannot stop at the first valuable level for long, many times surpassing hugely the simple first obstacle.

- 1s fight to every other pattern different to 1 (2s and 3s)
- 2s fight against 3s
- 3s fight against 2s.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on August 23, 2021, 02:27:36 AM
Here is one from yesterday.  Lord O Lord did a few of us hit the casino hard, the rest lost big time.  No one believed what was happening was happening.  I took the picture and could not take it another one after the players went another 15 or so to about 3 more bankers.  SO what you see here, the next hand was 1 banker, than about another 7 players and then 2 more bankers.  Then another 8 players.  So it wound up being 26 players to 5 bankers. 

Almost every single player hand that was not a natural, was something that brought the players up to either 7-8 or 9 each time.  Like if the banker had a 7 on the first 2 cards and the players had say a 1, the players would flop a 7 or 8 for their 3rd card.  If something like that did not happen, then the players would win by 1.  Like the Players would have 0 and the banker had 2, the players would draw a 3 and the bankers would flop a 10/face for their 3rd card. Half of the players naturals would be a 9 and the banker would have a natural 8 each time. 



Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 23, 2021, 03:44:47 AM
This is a pretty good example where it's quite difficult to lose more than a couple of times (at worst), letting the predominant counterpart to get 'endless' wins. Especially under the card features Al has pointed out.

A further proof that baccarat is a strict situational game.

Are those events so rare to show up?
Who gives a s.h.it, casinos must pay us no matter what.
 

as.




 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on August 23, 2021, 05:16:58 AM
Thx AsymBacGuy
Good posts/ several good points in the last couple essays--I like that you also take time in your posts to give specific examples.

"...Virtually speaking the probability that every shoe will not present a back to back same pattern on different random walks is zero.
I mean that at some point 1 must be followed by another 1 (2s and 3s as enemies), 2 by another 2 (3s as enemy) and 3 by another 3 (2s as enemy).


re: 3 by another 3 (2s as enemy).[/b]
     Q: Is your example referring to  (BBB: P BBB)  or  (BBB:PPP)

Thanks
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on August 23, 2021, 05:41:30 AM
Hi alrelax
Thx for TR  /toteboard pic

re: Reply #397

Gravy train shoe for sure.

On the first two P columns did you do your oft mentioned pospros (1326 or the 1248 16,1...etc, or other?), and did u continue with  your pospro through the 5th/6th hits on the first two P column runs? 
How or did these initial P runs affect your wagering approach when the even better P-runs presented in P columns 3/4???

Without knowing anything else I likely would NOT have continued with my largest wager on Player C1 hit # 5th/6th, however, after the first two P colum runs the 3rd/4th P runs that showed immediately following your toteboard pic,  would have been difficult to stay off. Especially with such precedence showing at that strength level.
....just hypothesizing as maybe dif opinion if more info, ..who knows as kinda the ol hindsight always converges toward 20/20.

*I know its easy to monday-morning quarterback a game like this :)


Thx again/continued success,

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on August 23, 2021, 01:12:50 PM
I will try my best to recall the moves, it helps me and hopefully will help you/others in your pursuits of this game.  I can recall most of it as it is fresh.  So typing as I was thinking when I was at the table is what I am saying.

Gravy train shoe for sure. (Of course it was, but you understand the game in a live B&M especially when the players are playing the game receiving the cards, bending and peeling, blowing and erasing, etc.)

On the first two P columns did you do your oft mentioned pospros (1326 or the 1248 16,1...etc, or other?), and did u continue with  your pospro through the 5th/6th hits on the first two P column runs? (It was the beginning of the shoe and there was several negative aspects against us. One which is really a subject I brought up in the past numerous times and I should once again, was today's players in a B&M are really almost never all together, such as all agreeing on something or not wagering, etc.  Used to be, we almost all would agree, high five, feel good, pump it up, smack the casino attitude and keep it going.  I know!!!! One million zillion percent, all of that does not CHANGE the presentments coming out.  YES I know, but it stops the, "Well #2 is betting table max and I feel awkward and stupid if I lose my $500 on the opposite side, he has been winning and is on a roll" type of thought.  Because if he wins, then it turns out to be screw me, I should have followed and got on it, but if he lost, it turns out to be, screw me why I fell prey and did not really pump it up.  I hope you understand what I am saying here?  Also, the opposite bettors of today, they wait till the very last second and throw up a table min or super small wager against whatever the larger players are wagering.  And the last group of today's players are the, cutters.  Playing to cut.  I understand once again the CUT.  Streaks are not the only way to win, not at all.  Strong is Strong.  Streaks, cuts, chops, 1-2-3s, all of the patterns, I have written about it at length.  So years ago, we used to all be virtually on the same side in good situations, and we would only lose the LAST wager on whatever gravy train was being presented, 5 or 10 or 15 hands and then back to normal and individual wagering, etc.  ALL OF THAT IS HARDLY PRESENT TODAY.)

RE: Pro Progressive.  No.  And I kick myself, did not even think of it at the time.  I had one friend there, and we usually play together in the majority of the wagering.  However the others were mostly all banker types most all hands or they play for the cut.  It was vocal and it did influence me, I will admit as embarrassing as it is.  I will say now and I know if this happened mid shoe or even later, I would have killed it considerably larger.  Also, those 2 ties were both natural ties, so it was like, here comes the bankers side coming forth.  Pressed 2nd and third after ties, stayed on players.  Cut way down on the 5th player because of huge money on the banker side and my thought, too good to be true.  Then the player came out once again and I stayed on it and the natural came out for the banker and it was a N9 against a players B8.  I went for the players to come back after that N9 first banker and lost and the table once again smacked it hard.  Now everyone was on the banker even my friend.  I stayed on the player with a smaller wager.  And it was a natural and I pleaded with them to let's do an old school and rock n roll.  Everyone stuck banker.   I pumped it up but no where near what I should have.  Good money for sure, but not great.  The last two natural in the 2nd row started to change the table.  But their wagers were small, smaller than usual in every aspect.  I know the people pretty well.  They would be betting a few green chips instead of their normal black and purples, etc.  All of what was happening and being presented was highly unusual in so many ways, not typical but far and large.  However, it was there and it was as Asym said, the casino has to pay, etc.  But you have to be so neutral, open minded, forget the past, realize anything and everything happens if you play enough, etc., and all of that is not easy with a full table of people or playing by yourself.  I have seen almost full shoes of doubles, or chops, or streaks that run 18-19-20-28 and 29 to one side.  Yes, not often, but they all appear and what the heck difference does it matter if you can win thousands on every hand, hand after hand on say 15 chop chops, or 15 doubles or a streak of 15 players or bankers?  When you bring $50k of chips to the cashier the cashier does not ask, how did you win those--I have to know before I cash those? 

To me, maybe not yourselves, the hardest shoes to play are the 1s, 2s and 3s, a streak of 4 to 7 here and there and everything mixed in the way most shoes are, is super hard.  Because you wind up losing just as quick as you did winning the highest majority of the times.  Playing chops you lose on the second repeats, playing for 3 and cut or 4 and cut you lose when it repeats, playing for doubles you lose when it chops, playing for streaks you lose when it does not. So on and so forth.  That is the simple reason, no one strategy or system will ever work.
 



How or did these initial P runs affect your wagering approach when the even better P-runs presented in P columns 3/4???  Yes, the influence was there, but (and honestly trying my best to recreate the feelings and thoughts here as I was sitting at the table playing it.  In one sense, too good to be true.  In another, everyone once again was right back to the banker with larger wagers.  I stuck on the players but smaller amounts, I did switch up at least 2 times to the banker and then when back to the player I would wager even a smaller amount as usual, maybe a test amount?  It was the perfect scenario to do table max and if it one just keep doing it until you lose the last one, but that is armchair quarterbacking talk.  More so than the board or the presentments themselves, the people did influence me. I am not blaming them, I am merely telling you how I was influenced.

Without knowing anything else I likely would NOT have continued with my largest wager on Player C1 hit # 5th/6th, however, after the first two P colum runs the 3rd/4th P runs that showed immediately following your toteboard pic,  would have been difficult to stay off. Especially with such precedence showing at that strength level. (Well I guess the answer I laid out above pretty much covers this one also.  This shoe brings back the old school days of Atlantic City in the 80's and the 90's with no electronic scoreboards and where there were all back tables, 14 players, 7 each side, no back betting, 2 dealers sitting, 1 dealer standing, 2 floor people with one behind each of the 7 players each side, etc.  The casino would have been out hundreds of thousands of dollars, easily.  Because the whole table would have been together.  The thing about the old school days is almost all of us seldom left unless we won large.  I learned as I stated the past few years or so.  There is a time to win large and there are times when you just cannot win or get past even status.) 

....just hypothesizing as maybe dif opinion if more info, ..who knows as kinda the ol hindsight always converges toward 20/20. 

*I know its easy to monday-morning quarterback a game like this

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on August 24, 2021, 03:40:06 PM
Thx alrelax for taking the time for responding with a play-by-play. that's interesting as well as instructive.

"...Also, those 2 ties were both natural ties, so it was like, here comes the bankers side coming forth.  Pressed 2nd and third after ties, stayed on players.  Cut way down on the 5th player..."
     I agree the two ties in P c1 would have caused a pause(at least for me betting into a potential P run). Sometimes if I have pressed a wager several times into a significant pos progression I will set it aside and stay on the streak at my 1.0 base unit level when I have situation causing pause, then reinsert the pressed-up wager when my interpretation of current events has more clarity.
    Once we saw the P c2 run the P c3/Pc4 streaks would have been easier to justify betting for P to run upward to 4th-6th. Of course then our brains would have been thinking logically: "there's no way P is going to have four consec columns approaching 6iar,...etc" ... or at least my brain would have been trying to convince this isn't typical. :)

Again, this was from jump street.  Yes there are plenty of runs in the beginning, but not multiple columns such as this.

The others 'at times' see various insights that allow themselves to profit nicely and quickly.  That sticks with me when I play.  For example, a few nights prior to this one of the regular players there pointed out how every natural 8, every 3rd card total of 8, caused the subsequent hand to have the opposite side win. He pointed out around hand 30 with numerous situations.  Then the rest of the shoe held true to that situation.  Again, doesn't always happen, but when it does, it is there. 

*
"...To me, maybe not yourselves, the hardest shoes to play are the 1s, 2s and 3s, a streak of 4 to 7 here and there and everything mixed in the way most shoes are, is super hard...."
     Perfectly stated.


So in hindsight Im sure u played it about as efficiently as possible. The other players that bought in for the similar amounts as you (the players betting for B streaks or the cuts) would probably be happy to trade their ROI with yours.

The others bought in repeatedly bought in for multiple times my buy in each time they did.

Thx again/continued success

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 26, 2021, 09:28:49 AM
Quote from: KungFuBac on August 23, 2021, 05:16:58 AM
Thx AsymBacGuy
Good posts/ several good points in the last couple essays--I like that you also take time in your posts to give specific examples.

"...Virtually speaking the probability that every shoe will not present a back to back same pattern on different random walks is zero.
I mean that at some point 1 must be followed by another 1 (2s and 3s as enemies), 2 by another 2 (3s as enemy) and 3 by another 3 (2s as enemy).


re: 3 by another 3 (2s as enemy).[/b]
     Q: Is your example referring to  (BBB: P BBB)  or  (BBB:PPP)

Thanks

HI KFB!

Consider the BR succession of this shoe part:

B
PP
B
P
BBB
P
BBBB
PPP
B
PP
BB
PP
B
PPP
B
P
BB
PPPP
BB...



Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 26, 2021, 09:33:42 AM
Under the 'runs' distribution we're talking about recently we'll have:

1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 2, 1, 3, 1, 1, 2, 3....

Now the gap of 1s vs everything else is: 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, (2).

The gap of 2s vs 3s is: 0, 1.

The gap of 3s vs 2s is: 1.

Remember we are just considering the big road.

as. 


Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 26, 2021, 09:58:55 AM
The three d.r.'s extracted from the above shoe look as:

bye: 1,3,2,1,3,1,1,1,(2)

sr: 1,1,2,2,1,1,1,2,2,1,1,1

cr: 3,2,1,1,3

In term of gaps:

BYe
1s/anything else: 2, 1, 0, 0,

2s vs 3s: (1)..

3s vs 2s: 1

sr

1s/anything else: 0,2,0,0,2,0,0

2s vs 3s: 0,0,0

3s vs 2s: n.a.

cr

1s vs anything else: 0, (1)

2s vs 3s: (1)

3s vs 2s: 1

Regardless of how we are dissecting the results, some situations are more  'uniformly' distributed than expected even by assuming a perfect random distribution that by no fk means exists in the real world.

Sunday we'll see this last topic.

as.


Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on August 26, 2021, 10:53:17 AM
 "Regardless of how we are dissecting the results, some situations are more  'uniformly' distributed than expected even by assuming a perfect random distribution that by no fk means exists in the real world.".

Of course and what most all players tend to forget or ignore.

Believe the two following things for great advantage.

Exists in SECTIONS.

And, might not.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on August 27, 2021, 03:06:18 PM
Hi AsymBacGuy

Thx for answering my question from (reply #399) above.

:nod:




Continued Success To All,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 29, 2021, 12:15:25 AM
In the gambling world, it's quite funny to see that poker or black jack are considered 'skill games' and baccarat a game for 'stup.id' people.

Poker is a game of imperfect informations by nature, featuring an astounding level of variance.
And such variance could last for long up to the point that many top poker players went broke along their career.
Of course best poker players are definitely ahead itlr but not by a degree most people think of. As serious money can be won (or lost) by challenging people getting fair skills at the start.
And every win will be decurted by the rake or by the tournament entry fee.

Black jack is a math advantaged game for the counting player, yet EV+ situations are showing up by very low frequencies (12-15% on average) and the edge is so relatively small that staying on the negative side for weeks or months won't be a unlikely circumstance.
Not mentioning that whenever we raise our bet, we could get some heat from casinos, even if we're raising our $20 standard bet to $60. Maybe by coincidence as we're not counting a fkng sh.it. LOL.

Baccarat is a completely different world.

Recently math gurus (of my behind) keep stating that every B/P bet will be EV- as Thorp or other gambling experts had not found evidences that one hand should be more likely than the counterpart besides some very low and insignficant math features.

Summarizing their findings, one side shouldn't be more probable than the other one by values capable to erase/invert the HE unless some very rare strong rank card distributions happen, giving a fkng sh.it about the real randomness of the sample and of course not giving the proper role about other statistical issues.

Actually we know that:

- most shoes aren't randomly shuffled;

- most of the times the non randomness will elicit the formation of more likely results;

- there's a dependency between back to back outcomes, privileging a clustering effect as key cards cannot be distributed proportionally along any shoe unless voluntarily placed.
That is most of the outcomes considered by different random walks are sensitive to what happened in the same shoe, getting limiting values of relative frequency more restricted than what a pure random world dictates.

At baccarat we should pretend to get a coin flip proposition but in reality it is not.
Especially if we're not compelled to bet every outcome.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on September 04, 2021, 04:19:12 PM
AsymBacGuy--

I like how you worded this.

My difficulty is how to apply this "clustering and limiting affect" most efficiently, that is, during its earliest occurrence and not ex post facto .


"...- there's a dependency between back to back outcomes, privileging a clustering effect as key cards cannot be distributed proportionally along any shoe unless voluntarily placed.
That is most of the outcomes considered by different random walks are sensitive to what happened in the same shoe, getting limiting values of relative frequency more restricted than what a pure random world dictates. ..."


Continued Success,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 08, 2021, 11:14:00 PM
Hi KFB!

I strongly think that at baccarat we shouldn't bet toward precise outcomes but toward 'propensities' of different nature happening at each shoe dealt.

At the start we know 416 cards of 10 different ranks are shuffled in order to produce math situations favoring one side or the other one by different degrees and dynamic yet card dependent frequency.

To state that along one shoe a given card concentration or dilution (no matter how strong is) will help one side is a total mere and worthless bighornsh.it.

Instead we should assume that along every shoe a natural key card concentration/dilution will help to form certain more likely patterns of different nature at some portions of it that most of the times aren't corresponding to a specific dominating side.
A feature hugely strengthened by a non random shuffle that at baccarat it's normal.

In one way or another and when considering different random walks taken at different spots, the actual card distribution will make more probable some events than the opposites as we're continuously changing the triggers by quantity and quality.
Up to the point that when adopting a super selected betting strategy some shoes are unplayable.


Spotting and taking advantage of 'propensities'

Even considering the four main roads displayed on the screen, a given BP succession will form different and apparent colliding situations:

Say the actual first part of the shoe reads as (btw the second to last shoe we've played yesterday)

B
PPP
BB
P
BBB
PP
B
P
BB
PPPPPPP
B
P
B
PP
B
PPP
B

a fkng undetectable big road shoe.

byb:

b
r
bbb
r
b
r
bb
r
bb
r
b
rrrr
bb
rr
bbbb
r
b

sr:

bbb
r
bbbbbbbbb
rrrrr
bbb
r
bb
rr
bb

cr:

rrrrrrr
b
rr
b
rrrrr
b
r
bbbb
r
b
r
b

Even though this shoe's portion could be interpreted as a partial 'good' shoe when considering sr and at some extent the cr (and a quite horrible big road besides the P 7-streak), this BP succession provides powerful insights at all four roads.

No need to stop the betting after getting a given win (or loss), if things are properly accounted the probability to be more wrong than right is close to zero.

What I try to say is that this shoe part was a classical example of strong 'propensity' not giving a damn about the math negative edge or easy 'trend following' strategy as there was not anything to follow besides the third b streak at sr and maybe the very first r streak happening at cr.
Big road P 7-streak coudln't be source of many winnings in a row for obvious reasons.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 13, 2021, 12:53:58 AM
Propensities are the natural way of arranging things

Anytime a 6 or 8-deck shoe is shuffled and ready to be played, we know for sure that rank cards are not proportionally distributed.
Some portions of the actual shoe will be poor or rich of key cards, cards that most of the times affect the results.
Since results can be registered by infinite ways (different paces of registrations by quantity and quality), we know that there's no a univocal line to be formed, just a math propensity to produce this or that.

Math can be disregarded several times per shoe (think how many times your standing 7 will lose to a natural or a fkng 3-card opposite point), yet what is mathematically more likely remains more likely to produce a given winning result.

What stays in the middle (the most part of outcomes) constitutes the player's hell and casino's heaven.

In some way we could assume that each shoe will surely present at least a couple of moderate/strong card propensities, naturally not deriving from real results but from key card distributions, hence math favored situations.

Naturally we players may easily confuse real results with math propensities as too much 'result oriented'.

Let's make some examples.

Per every shoe played the probability NOT to get at least one 1-1, 1-2, 2-1 or 2-2 (single-single, single-double, double-single or double-double) pattern at the big road and common derived roads is ZERO.
For that matter the probability NOT to get at least a back to back 3+ spot at all big road and derived roads considered at the same shoe is NOT ZERO.

The reason is not about the general 0.75 average probability those patterns will show up, just because long 3+ streaks will consume a lot of space along with not resolved hands (ties) both cutting off at various degrees the single-double probability.

And we know the average number of 3+ streaks happening at every shoe dealt, thus estimating how many times and how long the opposite 1-2 patterns will come out.

It's like that the 'random world' we must face is way more predictable than expected.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on September 13, 2021, 05:24:33 AM
Hi AsymBacGuy

Thx/ many good points in above post.

re:
"...Propensities are the natural way of arranging things

Anytime a 6 or 8-deck shoe is shuffled and ready to be played, we know for sure that rank cards are not proportionally distributed.
Some portions of the actual shoe will be poor or rich of key cards, cards that most of the times affect the results..."


     Q1. What is your preferred method for tracking events on your scorecard. E.G., Do you track every card, just key cards such as 789, only side outcome total by hand,...etc, none of the above, other?



Thx/continued success,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 14, 2021, 09:04:36 PM
Hi KFB!

From a general point of view, best predictable patterns come out with chopping lines and streaks of moderate/huge lenght, naturally both are coming out more probably when key cards are strongly balanced between two sides for long or hugely unbalanced at one side.
The remanining world, albeit being the most part, belongs to the 'confusing' field of more whimsical outcomes that might stop or prolong those basic patterns.

It's like that a shoe is composed by undetectable sections (that is whenever key cards are diluted) and more detectable portions where key cards are clustered in some way, that is forming the above more predictable lines.

No need to track key cards precisely, an experienced player get an idea when 'neutral' and key cards are more likely to show up, in addition as he/she takes care about HOW previous hands went.
Notice that naturals (and standing points) are constituing a way large part of total outcomes.

Hands produced by 6 cards are the highest form of 'randomness', then hands formed by 5 cards and finally formed by 4 cards (standing points at either side and naturals on one or two sides)

So, imo, besides the total key cards ratio happening at given points of the shoe, the number of key cards falling at 6 cards and 5 cards hands is another helping tool.

If we'd dissect numerous long 'chopping lines' of a given shoe, we'll see that most of the times key cards are quite balanced on either side, in some way telling us that they're quite concentrated.

The same about long streaks: strong key card falling at the same side, maybe asym hands that went right for B side during a B streak, or conversely at P side, asym hands that went wrong so prolonging a P streak.

What seems to be undetectable actually it isn't. At least not by the degree casinos collect their profits.

Patterns are a good way to think of things, better if we assign to them a 'card feature' even whether approximated.

Finally, there's always the old scientifically proved 'very slight propensity' to get the opposite result already happened. A natural reflex of key cards that cannot disappear from the shoe.

More on that later

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 15, 2021, 02:00:54 AM
At baccarat propensities are around any corner, up to the point that we think it's virtually impossible to be losers at this game for long.

Due to its finiteness and asymmetrical rank card distribution (along with other features several times considered here) any single shoe is a world apart.

You already know that my unb plan #1 will rarely cross 3 or more losing spots in a row, after all the probability to win is 0.75% per every two bets placed.

To show how weird is this game compared to expected probabilities, let's consider now another betting plan.

This time we take care of columns' outcomes (horizontal registration) registered in term of 1s, 2s, 3s and 4s.

For example a shoe succession as:

BB
P
BBB
PPPP
B
P
BB
PP
B
PPP
B

becomes a 2,1,3,4,1,1,2,2,1,3 sequence

Next we'll build two opposite A and B chances getting different one-level and/or two-level winning results:

A chance wins whenever a single or an exact triple will come out (thus winning at 1 and 3 patterns);

B chance wins whenever a double or a 4+ streak will come out (thus winning at 2 and 4+ patterns).

So in the above sequence we'll get a B,A,A,B,A,A,B,B,A,A pattern.

Notice that B chance loses every single situation and will win just whenever a streak different to 3 will come out, A chance will win either after a single shows up or when the streak is limited to 3.

See what happens from a probability point of view:

A chance will win whenever a new column shows a single (0.5 or so probability)
or whenever a triple come out after a first losing bet (0.25 probability)

B chance will win whenever a new column shows a streak, but only doubles or 4+ streaks (0.5 + 0.25 probability) will be accounted as a win.

Therefore at A side long chopping lines (BPBPBP..) will be clustered winners the same as long single series getting many 3s along the way without doubles or 4+s.
On the other end, B side encounters long winning clusters only when doubles come in a row or when 4s come in a row or a mix of the two.

Now test your shoes and try to see if some patterns could be more likely than others in term of 'runs' or, better yet, whether previous patterns are 'forecasting' more often than not the following 'runs' situations.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on September 15, 2021, 03:20:34 PM
Thx AsymBacGuy
These last couple essays are two of your finest.

This is an area of my game Im trying to improve. In other words how to recognize a streak(or pattern) earlier so that I don't have to be as concerned about the length of said pattern.(*I think alrelax or gr8, maybe asymbac stated something to this effect years ago in a post).



In my efforts to improve early detection skills I often find myself combining a decision-making tree based on a probability model, combined within a biased-outcome model. All the while trying to also wager on a simple model of just betting on what the shoe is producing right now.  Sometime we may even win the decision yet not know definitively which model (if any) led us to the correct guess(at least for me).

For example, lets say a shoe presents an early string of (B PP B PP B PP). Each player at the table may be guessing right (or wrong), with all guessing in unison or maybe equally divided at 50-50. However, each player may be thinking or deducing or guessing using totally different logic, or maybe just haphazardly guessing .

*It would be interesting if each player at that table had the thoughts bubble circles floating above their heads for all to see.
Maybe we could look into each players head(Like the Mel Gibson movie: What women want where he can hear what women are thinking). :)


(B PP B PP B PP)

Player #1: "every B is holding at one so every time I see a B I shall bet P once and wait til i see another B"--damn Im smart and likely the worlds greatest bac player"

Player #2: "every PP is holding at two so everytime I see a PP I shall bet B once and wait til I see another PP"--damn Im smart and likely the worlds greatest bac player"

Player #3: "every B is turning and every PP is turning to a single B so I shall bet every hand by wagering B, followed by PP, then bet the same pattern to continue"--damn Im smart and likely the worlds greatest bac player"

Player #4: "I shall always bet opposite of B single, I see a B so I shall P, P, I'm 1-0 and up a unit and there is no way this pattern can continue, color up--damn Im smart and likely the worlds greatest bac player."

Player #5: "this dealer is smoking hot and I think she likes me, and since she is a perfect 10, and since all outcomes are always random I shall wager $10 on the F7,f7, --damn Im smart and likely the worlds greatest bac player." ....
......but I digress :)



What Im getting at is sometimes I look back on a multi-wager consecutive winning streak and realize much of my winnings came from simply identifying or some how getting on the streak early. Though Im not 100% sure if it was due to solid logic, lucid thinking, discernment, years of experience,  or did I just get lucky and right place at right time.


Continued Success,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 15, 2021, 03:37:04 PM
Nice post, KFB!!  :thumbsdown:

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: klw on September 16, 2021, 10:52:10 AM
Really enjoying your posts AsymBacGuy -- I love your way of breaking down the sequences and applying the AB measurements.

You could also create other ways of measuring pattern appearances such as  C and D where is C is sequence of 1 and 4 or 4+ in length and D are sequences of 2 and 3 in length giving an approximate appearance percentage of 60/40 in favour of C.

We could then wait for an imbalance of say domination of C ( which will be mainly sequences of 1 ) and look to bet for D to correct the imbalance.

Of course as has been said many times anything can and will happen short term but longer term the appropriate balance will happen at some stage.

It's a question of recognising what is happening and being prepared to take advantage of it.

Cheers.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: klw on September 16, 2021, 11:03:30 AM
Hi AsymBacGuy -- Just started reading some of your other threads/posts . I came across this :-

" A) Itlr Banker streaks are more prevalent than B singles counterpart but we all know that many shoes will produce many B singles. "

This has surprised me and demonstrated that I have a lot to learn. I expected the distribution of sequences of an even chance game to be something like roulette which is :-

15 Sequences

     Sequence         Appearances

          1                        8
          2                        4
          3                        2
          4/4+                   1

Looking at what you have written above this is not true ?

If this is not true then my percentages in my last post will be off so apologies for that.

Can you correct me please ?

Cheers.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 16, 2021, 04:08:06 PM
Thanks, I'll address your questions in a couple of days

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 19, 2021, 09:24:32 AM
Hi klw!

Itlr and discounting ties B probability is 0.5068 and P probability is 0.4932. So it's not a coin flip proposition, moreover is a light dependent process.
Simplyfing on average we'll get one more B hand than P hand per every shoe dealt.

'Itlr' and 'on average' are the worst player's words when talking about gambling.
On the contrary those two words are the best casinos' allies in order to make a lot of money.

So, yes, that average more B hand per shoe should fall after a B single (thus forming a B streak) or to stop any P pattern coming out.
If that more B hand would fall at any already formed Banker streak it simply prolong it just one step, so not changing the B streak/B single ratio or shapes.

Very frequently shoes will show long series of B singles without any B streak or few B streaks in between. Thus the potential B math propensity goes right down the toilet.
More importantly, any B winning bet is payed 0.95:1 and not 1:1 as any P winning bet, easy to see that betting B in those circumstances 'no matter what' constitutes a big mistake.

In the long run the mathematical mistake between B and P bets is just a 0.18% value favoring B, yet in the short run the payements remain hugely shifted toward one side.

Think of those shoes where the final number of P hands overcome the number of B hands or, conversely, of those shoes where B streaks were very prevalent but unnecessarily short payed more often than not.

Cheers

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on September 19, 2021, 01:17:04 PM
Remember shoes like the one I am posting, these do happen and these are huge money makers for some and money takers for most.

ITLR will kill and swallow bankrolls without a chance to catch up, most times.



Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 21, 2021, 08:37:35 PM
Yep, this is a classical example where general probabilities seem to be disregarded and actual probabilities are so polarized that every player should quit the table as winner or huge winner.
Jackpots happen and we should try to be there when they happen.

Imo almost every shoe presents one or more spots where a range of hands is more probable than the counterpart and we know there are infinite ways to dissect the outcomes.
Of course so called 'profitable' spots will fight against 'undetectable' spots, thus the only way to play a EV+ game is to get rid of those undetectable spots the more than we can. In the sense that we can't transform the undetectable world into a profitable world by the use of progressions or other 'human' tools.

I wish to present another way to consider a shoe by classifying as 'enemy' the most likely baccarat two-side occurences at Big Road: the doubles. A contradiction in terms, right?

Doubles as enemy

Our plan will be to bet toward singles and 3+s at any side, so doubles will produce two losses in a row, the remaining patterns will be winners (by a light two-step progression) or break-even or so spots.

Of course along every shoe doubles will distribute by different degrees, since we'll start our classification by waiting a first double appearance we'll get:

- single double (that is a double followed by a single or a 3+ streak)

- two consecutive doubles (xBBPPB or xPPBBP) followed by a single or a 3+ streak

- three consecutive doubles

- more than three consecutive doubles

Since doubles must follow a general probability to show up, we may infer that the more doubles are clustered, higher will be the probability to spot 'doubles-free' portions of the shoe.
Naturally it could happen that shoes particularly rich of doubles won't be a realiable source of profitable betting, but there's always a counterpart situation where doubles are so rare (thus singled distributed or by forming rare two-consecutive patterns) that most part of shoe is bettable toward singles and triples.

More on that later

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 22, 2021, 03:09:39 AM
Consider those 6-deck live shoes:

1)

PP
BBB
PP
B
P
B
PPPPPP
BBB
P
B
PP
BBB
PP
B
P
BBB
PP
BBB
P
B
PP
BB
P
BBBB
PPP
BBB

Doubles went as singled, singled, singled, singled, singled, doubled.

If we were to place a bet after any double toward not getting another double, we would have got several wins in a row, that is 5 wins in a row stopped by the final doubled sequence.
Interestingly, at big eye boy road we got just two 3+ streaks, the remaining hands produced singles and doubles.
Even at beb road doubles went as single, double, double, single, single, single, 4 consecutive doubles.

Even though some spots are colliding (that is forecasting an opposite event) playing toward getting an isolated double will get us a possible statistical edge.

Think about NOT getting three doubles in a row, now the colliding force will smooth up to the point that clusters of two doubles in a row will get a very low variance probability.

2)

BBBB
PP
BB
PPP
B
P
BBBBB
PPP
B
P
B
PPPP
B
P
B
P
BB
PP
BBBBB
P
BBBB
P
B

Now at big road doubles went as doubled, doubled.
At big eye boy road we got 3 doubles in a row, two doubles in a row and one isolated double.

At main road (big road) and considering doubles as enemy, every column produced a win but at columns #2 and #3 and #17 and #18.
At big eye boy road 'losing columns' appeared at hands #9 #10 and #11 and #13 and #14.

Notice that at both roads (big road and byb road) consecutive doubles are more likely stopping at 2 level, in the sense that the probability to get two consecutive doubles vs superior doubles clusters is way more restricted than what a strict independent world dictates.
In addition and more often than not, long clustered doubles will elicit the formation of several 'no doubles patterns' as the probability to get simmetrical 'double' (thus consecutive) patterns  will be lowered.

Practical reflexes on actual betting

A fair amount of shoes will present a total isolated 'doubles' happening, a careful key card distribution study will be an additional tool to ascertain this.
That means that those shoes producing all isolated doubles cannot give us more than two losses in a row.

The more doubles are clustered, higher will be the probability to spot the situations where 1s and 3s prevail.

Doubles are more likely to show up when the actual shoe provides few singles and many streaks.
It's like that at the actual shoe we're playing at, consecutive streaks burn the half probability to isolate doubles at the first attempt.
So avoid to bet when the results seem to be 'streaky'.

Doubles are working as triples, with the important effect that they are slight more likely to show up.
That means that they are more likely to show up clustered, so enlarging the probability to spot the situastions where they won't act along a shoe.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on September 22, 2021, 01:18:00 PM
Good thoughts/questions klw.
I like your replies AsymBacGuy /thx for taking the time to elaborate. I always find your ideas informative and helpful as I know you are a serious/frequent player. I'm sure many other guest viewers /forum members are appreciative too.


I highlighted a couple specific sentences from your more recent replies:

"...Itlr' and 'on average' are the worst player's words when talking about gambling.
On the contrary those two words are the best casinos' allies in order to make a lot of money...."


     I agree 100%. Often I cringe when reading  or hearing  a supposed expert gaming author, dealer, player,..etc  say things
     such as "just bet B every hand", or its "just a fity-fity coin flip",...etc.  :)



"...Jackpots happen and we should try to be there when they happen.

Imo almost every shoe presents one or more spots where a range of hands is more probable than the counterpart and we know there are infinite ways to dissect the outcomes.   .."

     re: Your response above to the strong P-bias shoe alrelax presented as an example.
     *One of the things I try to do at the very beginning of a shoe(after the cut), is to wait until the shoe has produced at least one winner for each side and returned to the first-hand winner before wagering(e.g., p bb p). Only occasionally I might see a significant trigger then I would go ahead and make one attempt to catch an early W.
Otherwise I'm waiting/constantly asking my self Qs such as A)Where is the bias? , all the while realizing that some times there simply is NOT a strong bias right now----just be patient and wait for it.

One area Im always striving to improve is recognizing there is nearly always a little bias showing. Just hold up awhile as most shoes will have at least one or two  groups of 9-12 outcomes where a significant  biased opportunity is available. Readily available for a huge cash extraction.  :nod:





Continued Success ,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 23, 2021, 08:37:17 PM
One area Im always striving to improve is recognizing there is nearly always a little bias showing. Just hold up awhile as most shoes will have at least one or two  groups of 9-12 outcomes where a significant  biased opportunity is available. Readily available for a huge cash extraction.  :nod:


+1

Hi KFB and thanks again for your interest at reading my pages.

Imo baccarat is a game of multiple observations made on several different aspects.

For example, how many times an asymmetrical hand comes twice in a row, so building the Banker math advantage on the second hand?
General probability tells us is 8.6%, hence it's way more likely to cross a symmetrical hand of course NOT favoring Player but even less Banker as on the latter scenario a winning bet is payed 0.95:1 and not 1:1.

Therefore when we place a series of bets at Banker side we must encounter a more restricted range of asym hands than average to get a math advantage.
And there are only two ways to be really advantaged when wagering Banker:

- Spot the situations where an asym hand will come out shortly.

- Hope that the actual shoe we're playing at provides a larger than expected number of asym hands.

Since the average asym advantage of B bets vs P bets is 15.86% but winning bets are decurted by a 5% vig, it's easy to see that there are very few spots to really get a math advantage (naturally 5% muts be considered as 2.5% per bet as half of the bets at symmetrical spots are losing).
Do the math and realize how many asym hands must show up to get a ROI (return on investment) advantage when betting Banker.

In reality casinos particularly love 'only Banker' bettors because they extract money either at losing bets  but even at winning bets. As long as the shoes they are providing not contain a substantial higher than average amount of asym hands, they collect some money.

Another important feature of the game that almost nobody would take care of is the quality of winning hands.

The largest part of winning results is formed by strong or moderate card situations, think about naturals and standing points or two-card higher initial points.
Nonetheless some rare shoes will elicit the formation of long clusters of winning hands (whatever shaped) by many 6-card hand situations or by a unfavorite side hitting multiple 'miracle' cards for long.

And many other situations in between.

Sadly to say, most 'betting many hands' strategies getting a profit at the end of the shoe would meet some unfavorite situations transforming a more likely losing hand into a winning hand.
It's what I name as a 'poker tournament' effect: eventual poker tournaments winners not only managed to win their advantaged hands but even some underdog confrontations (not mentioning a fair amount of so called 'coin flips').

This effect is partially erased by operating a strong and diluted bet selection.

Say that to be constant winners at baccarat we need to play a lot of shoes thus collecting imperfect informations about how the game works and for each of them to make multiple observations that are not worth per each shoe dealt.

In fact, probabilities continuously hop from one side to another, no one future hand will get a 0.5 probability to happen. And to get a long term edge we just need to bet B with at least a 51.3% probability and P with at least a 50.1% probability.
It can be done.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 26, 2021, 11:35:02 PM
An old gambling quote states that players are no guaranteed to forecast sure winning bets along the way.

A banal assertion that when applied at baccarat needs some specific considerations to be made.

Of course probability (to win or to lose) cannot be 1 and neither 0 as such those extremes fit the concept of 'certainty' (the event will surely happen or the event can't happen).

Nevertheless long term 'human' observations made on reliable samples tend to negate that 'set in stone' assumption. In the sense that 1 and 0 can reach those extremes in many ways, thus assuring or not the opposite certainties.

Besides considering exceptionally rare and only theorically possible situations, any shoe dealt will produce a BP succession and infinite derived sub sequences getting a finite number of patterns of different quality and probability to happen.

Assuming a perfect equal betting placements between B and P side, to get a long term edge we need to 'be right' by at least a 50.7% winning probability. Giving a lesser fk about the vig, that is before vig.

Every other series of 'back to back bets' must follow proportionally this value, hence and for example to get two bets in a row as profitable itlr (whatever diluted they are) on average we should win 75.7% of the times.
And so on by taking into account proportional values working at three or more bets in a row and so on (but we recommend to stop at two value).

Tricks to reach or to enlarge at our favor the 75.7% winning ratio after two hands wagered.

Easiest way to get multiple wins in a row is about lowering the first losing attempt. We can't put much pressure about the second bet, I mean. We must proportionally share the same 'probability' weight on both bets.
Actually and after studying long statistical samples, each 'two-step' bet has shown to get a larger overall impact over that 75.7% winning ratio than what the second bet can do.
Contrary to common belief it's like that being right at the start of those two bets will be more profitable than trying to win the second bet after a first loss.

Of course losing two bets in a row must be considered as a sort of imminent disaster as every two-step bet getting a 0% winning value will get a huge impact over the future two-step bet situations.

The beauty of this game is that 'two in a row loss' spots whatever considered, are way more limited than what the fkng math values dictate.
Along each shoe dealt, the probability to be right by wagering two hands in a row cannot be 0 if we would consider clustered mixed events made of singles or doubles or triples as a starting betting point.

To make a vulgar example about a 'bringing down the house' strategy, consider how many times consecutive 3+ streaks or doubles at any fkng random walk you wish to classify will come out clustered or isolated and you'll see that low values are way more likely to be followed by other low values and/or that high clusters will be more likely followed by low degree clusters of the same shape.

Say that at small road we're betting that consecutive doubles won't make three or more doubles in a row, stopping the betting after a win (on either two spots) or getting a two-step loss (that is another consecutive double will come out).
That's our random walk we want to put in action.
For the absolute 'lack' of dependency stated by mathematicians, we are supposed to get the same number and sd values of two double isolated spots than superior than two double spots.

This is a complete wrong fkng bighorn.sh.it.

According to our live shoes sample, at sr the probability to get consecutive doubles at a value higher than two is way more limited than what a mere coin flip proposition dictates.
So astute players trying to get the best of it by exploiting this feature are going to get a substantial long term edge over casinos.

After all most bac pros do not give a fk about trends, just about probabilities happening on selected circumstances.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on September 27, 2021, 01:34:49 AM
Great post above. Super great in fact.

But I have deduced down over the years, it appears the highest majority of people believe more in their own desires and/or their own bad experiences then from the truth of another person.

And that my friend is heavily in the casinos favor and totally against the person playing on the felt.

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on September 27, 2021, 06:50:16 PM
Well stated my friend.

AsymBacGuy in a couple posts above:

"..Easiest way to get multiple wins in a row is about lowering the first losing attempt. We can't put much pressure about the second bet, I mean. We must proportionally share the same 'probability' weight on both bets.
Actually and after studying long statistical samples, each 'two-step' bet has shown to get a larger overall impact over that 75.7% winning ratio than what the second bet can do.
Contrary to common belief it's like that being right at the start of those two bets will be more profitable than trying to win the second bet after a first loss.
  ..."





Continued Success To All,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 29, 2021, 12:01:04 AM
Thanks a lot Al!

Hi KFB!

Splitting the actual results by two bets terms in order to get a win could help us to define better what we're trying to accomplish.

Let's speak about patterns.
Say we set up our plan by first wagering toward singles: the first winning attempt is made at singles, if we win that's it. What happens next doesn't interest us, we collect the money, period.
If we lose, we'll get two same hands in a row and now we must decide if we want to bet toward doubles (betting the opposite hand) or triples (betting the same hand). This is the second part of our plan.

What's important is that this second bet cannot overcome mathematically the first losing attempt even if all second bets will win and even though the second bet is higher than the first bet (a necessary condition to get a win after two bets when the first is lost).
In fact if we knew that second attempts will get more wins than losses (or must get a kind of 'more likely' probability after a first loss), why not waiting a fictional first loss and then starting to bet?

Naturally singles fight against streaks, doubles vs triples and so on.
Therefore the only option to study is about their general distribution compared with the actual distribution.

Even though general probabilities dictate that everything is possible, heterogeneous distributions cannot happen for long along each portion of the shoe. As card ranks are asymmetrically distributed along the shoe.

Hence from one part we must spot the situations to get a first win, from the other end we must take care of the actual distribution when seems to produce 'clustering' events of different shape.
The term 'clustering' is a direct reflex of the asymmetrical cards distribution, but for the nature of the game something being surely asymmetrical seems to produce 'symmetrical' probability patterns.

For obvious reasons each shoe produces a card distribution following, itlr, the bell curve shape.

Our tests have shown that best profitable shoes are those placing themselves near the top of the bell curve or quite distant from it.
Near the top shoes are ridicously beatable, distant from the top shoes could be either a heaven or a nightmare. Of course the 'nightmare' may be transformed into a 'heaven' by adapting at most our strategy to the actual shoe.

In my unb plan #1 I've considered to register and play 1-2 and 1-3 patterns, stopping whenever a 2-3 or 3-2 pattern will come out. Thus shoes particularly rich of singles will be more likely to show up long winning clusters.
Nothing prevent us to add a superior patterns level, that is betting toward 2-3 and 2-4, now shoes particularly full of doubles will be more likely to win (now singles become not influential). Here the 3-4 or 4-3 pattern is a stopping sign.

And so on with the 3-4 and 3-6 betting plan, etc.

It's like that whenever the trigger pattern value come out combined with the next value or the +2 value will produce lines affected by low degree of variance.

Let's take randomly 10 shoes from my datasets by considering 2-3 and 2-4 patterns (say unb plan #1.2).
W= +1 unit and L= -3 units.

1- W L L W W W W W W W W L W

2- W L W W L W W W W W W L W W

3- W W W W L

4- W L W W W W  L L

5- W W W L W W W W L L W W

6- W W W W W L L W W L W W W W W

7- W W W W L W L W W W W L W

8- L W L L W W W L W

9- W L W W W W W W W W W L W L W

10- W W L W W L W W L W W L W

Total W= 87 (+ 87 before vig)
Total L= 30. (- 90)

Fortunately (lol) at this sample I didn't catch up a favourable W/L ratio, we've lost money and furthermore burdened by the vig, nonetheless (not displayed here) we've won more bets at the 2 level (that is the first step of the two-step procedure) than by backing up the first loss by a second wager.
Not mentioning that distributions of winning or losing spots could help us to choose when and how to bet.

Even not taking into account specific patterns as I did, every shoe results splitted in two betting sections are made by a number of first wins and second wins (with the same losing counterpart); in order to win itlr, we need to be more right than 50% (51.3% or more when betting B) at the very first hand wagered. Everything different from this will produce an inevitable loss and lack of control over the outcomes.

Alrelax is completely right about his 'sections' way of thinking the game.
Some sections of the shoe are playable, most part of them aren't.
I would add that some shoes are unplayable no matter what.

Finally it's interesting to note that most successful bac players rarely take a seat at the table.
They prefer to bet by standing behind other players.
They do not give a lesser s.h.i.t about the privilege of peeling cards or getting comps.
Moreover, it's easier to quit a table either as a winner or a loser by not seating at it.
If we are not seated at a table at the eyes of the personnel we simply don't exist, yet our bets are.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 29, 2021, 12:36:02 AM
One more randomly taken 10-shoes sample regarding 2-3 and 2-4 unb plan #1.2
(*= 1 unit losing hand, a transitory triples not getting the room to be classified)

1- W W W L L W W W W W *

2- W W W L W L W W W L W W W W

3- W W W L L L W W L W L W W W L W L

4- W W W W W W W W W L W W L W W W

5- W W W L W W W W L W W W W W W W W W

6- W L W W W W W W W W L

7- W W W W W W W L W W W L W W W W W

8- L W W W W W W W L W W W L W W

9- W W W W W W W W W L W W W W W W W

10- W W W W L W L L W W L *

W= 119 , that is +119 units before vig

L= 28 plus two 1-unit losses (*) that is -86 units

In this sample I've caught a W/L ratio fairly shifted toward the left.

Now you probably should get a better idea of what 'bringing down the house' means when talking about baccarat.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: klw on September 30, 2021, 02:22:05 PM
Hi AsymBacGuy  -- Great writings as usual and I am very grateful for one for all this information.

If you have the time is there any chance you could do an example of the above system so I can " get it " 100% ?

Cheers.

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on October 01, 2021, 12:02:24 PM
Exactly.  "Even though general probabilities dictate that everything is possible, heterogeneous distributions cannot happen for long along each portion of the shoe. As card ranks are asymmetrically distributed along the shoe."

Match that up with.  "Alrelax is completely right about his 'sections' way of thinking
the game.  Some sections of the shoe are playable, most part of them aren't.
I would add that some shoes are unplayable no matter what."

Each section must be viewed and partially wagered independently without total reliance upon the previous sections.  Unless there are long streaks and a large total unbalance of winnings hands in your current section. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 03, 2021, 10:19:14 PM
Quote from: alrelax on October 01, 2021, 12:02:24 PM
Each section must be viewed and partially wagered independently without total reliance upon the previous sections.  Unless there are long streaks and a large total unbalance of winnings hands in your current section.

That's right, yet the problem still stands when to consider the starting and ending section points.
Obviously it would be a blasphemic strategical plan to stop to bet after a single win when a long winning streak appears while we would prolong the betting after the same counterpart single loss (instead of waiting another possible favourable section).

Since any shoe dealt will present a finite number of sections, raising the theorical probability of success to values higher than 50% will help us to define better the WL 'chopping' or 'clustered' lines happening at most part of the shoes.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 03, 2021, 11:54:38 PM
Quote from: klw on September 30, 2021, 02:22:05 PM
Hi AsymBacGuy  -- Great writings as usual and I am very grateful for one for all this information.

If you have the time is there any chance you could do an example of the above system so I can " get it " 100% ?

Cheers.

Hi klw and thanks!

Any shoe dealt is formed by a number combination, singles are 1, doubles are 2, etc.
In another way of thought, each shoe presents a 'general' speed having accelerating spots (singles and doubles) or slowing down spots (triples and superior streaks).
We know that the average speed is influenced most by lower classes of 'speeds' as they are the more likely occurences.
Even knowing that in the long term accelerating spots vs slowing down spots ratio will be close to 1.

Yet the speed cannot be uniform along any shoe as cards are asymmetrically placed.
Moreover, different speeds acting at different shoes and considered by multiple levels cannot get the same positional strenght for long, especially if we'd consider back to back shoes getting the same production.

Example. 4= 4 or superior streaks)

Shoe #1 (Palace Station, LV)

PPBPPBPPPBBBBBPBPPPBPPBPBBPPBBBPPPBBPPPBBPBPPPPBBBPPBBPPBPPPPPPBP

is a 2-1-2-1-3-4-1-1-3-1-2-1-1-2-2-3-3-1-3-1-3-2-1-1-4-3-2-2-2-1-4-1 number succession.

compare this shoe with the actual next shoe dealt at PS:

BBPPBBPBPPPBBPBPBBPBBBBPBBPPPPBPBPPBPPPBPPBPPBPBBBPPBBBPB

that is

2-2-2-1-1-3-2-1-1-1-2-1-4-1-2-4-1-1-1-2-1-3-1-2-1-2-1-1-3-2-3-1

Get rid of singles (1) and see what those two shoes look as after positionally coupling the patterns higher than 1: (two bets in a row after any 3 or 4 pattern coming on the first shoe)

2-2 (-1)
2-2 (-1)
3-2 (+1)
4-3 (+1)
3-2 (+1)
2-2 (-1)
2-4 (+1)
2-2 (-1)
3-4 (+1)
3-2 (+1)
3-3 (-3)
3-2 (+1)
2-2 (-1)
4-3 (+1)
3-2 (+1)
2-3 (+1)
2-x
2-x
4-x

Naturally it will be more probable to lose after any 2 spot (implying just one bet to get a W or a L) than after any 3 (two bets needed half ot the times to get a W) or 4 (two bets needed half of the times to get a W).

Since 3s and 4s are less likely to coming out clustered and since singles tend to confuse the positional back to back situations, we can safely assume that only a whimsical and very unlikely confrontation will get us many losses in a row, that is every column will get more often than not a different pattern already happened or randomly taken for that matter.

But more simply let's see the distinct 2,3 and 4 distribution on each shoe.
As explained on my unb plan #1, instead of considering 1s, 2s and 3+s now will take care of 2s, 3s and 4+s, so betting toward 2-3 and 2-4 clusters after those two distinct events happened at least one time and stopping the bet whenever 3-4 or 4-3 patterns show up.

First shoe: 2, 2, 3, 4, 3, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 2, 4, 3, 2, 2, 2, 4.

Second shoe: 2, 2, 2, 3, 2, 2, 4, 2, 4, 2, 3, 2, 2, 3, 2, 3.

First shoe: L, W, W, W, W, W, W, W, L, L, W, W, L.

Second shoe: W, W, L, W, W, L, W, W, W, W, W.

Notice that the cumulative number of W and L is equal, that is 6 losses and 18 wins (minus vig).
It seems that the first betting 'comparison back to back shoe' plan would get us an edge.

So let's start a 'random' test to check out what will be the most profitable course of action to be taken.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 04, 2021, 12:34:16 AM
10 shoes randomly taken and considered by 2,3 and 4s patterns.

1- 4 4 2 3 2 4 2 3 4 4 2 3 3 2 4 4
2- 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 4 2 4 2 2 2 4 2 3 3 4
3- 2 3 2 4 2 4 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 4
4- 4 3 3 4 2 2 4 2 4 3 3 3 2 2
5- 4 4 2 2 4 2 3 2 4 4 4 2 2 2 4 (3)
6- 2 2 2 2 4 2 3 3 4 2 3 3 3 2 4 3 4 2
7- 2 3 2 2 4 2 33 3 3 1 1 4 2 4 2 2 4 2
8- 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 4 2 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 (3)
9- 3 2 4 2 4 4 2 2 3 3 4 2 4
T- 2 2 4 4 2 4 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 4 2 2

Notice shoes #5, #6 and #7 all present the same back to back results (in bold) in the identical five positions and I've chosen randomly ten shoes from my datasets. Moreover at shoes #6 and #7, even columns six produced another same back to back outcome.

Sh.i.t happens, we know, but crossing the probability to lose 12 bets in a row....

So let's see about the unb plan #1.2

1- L W L W L L L W W L W

2- W W L W W W W W W L W L

3- W L W W W L W W W W W W W L

4- W W W W L W

5- W W W L W L W W W W W W *

6- W L W L L W W W L L

7- W W L W L W W W W W L W W W W W W

8- W W W L W W W W W W W W *

9- L W W W W W L W L W

T- W W W W L W W W W W W W L W W W

W= 91 (+ 91 units before vig)
L= 29  (- 87 units)
*= 2  (- 2 units)

Nothing to be appalled at, yet....

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: klw on October 05, 2021, 10:48:19 AM
Hi AsymBacGuy  -- Many thanks for the above posts. Very interesting.

I am currently reading through all your posts on this site. It will take some time. I will glean the best bits ( for me ) for categories to monitor and then start my analysis from past shoes. There doesn't seem to be many shoe histories about which include the cards dealt. If anyone has such histories and can point me in the right direction I would be very grateful.

Analysis on an excel sheet would be even quicker, I'll look around.

I have a lot to learn.

Cheers,

klw.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 05, 2021, 11:53:58 PM
Hi klw and ty!

Yep. the game is quite complicated to learn (imo), patterns are important but rank cards distribution matters...
You won't find many REAL LIVE shoes samples that consider ranks; best way is to deal shoes by yourself then registering everything.

Let's go back to my unb #2.

The basic strategy is quite simple: we'll only take care of B patterns in form of singles, doubles and triples (3+s) distribution.
So we'll start the betting (better sayed, the registration) after a new B hand comes out.
People who have read that thread know that in some way B doubles clusters are considered as a constant 'enemy', so we'll classify the B1 (singles) and B3+s distribution happening along each shoe dealt in terms of 'profitable' sections.

For obvious reasons, the probability to get the whole shoe providing just 1s and 3s at B side is well higher than the probability to get only 1s and 2s, not mentioning the very distant probability to get all the shoe showing 2s and 3s without any single in between.

Mathematically speaking, B1<B2 but B2<B3, overall the 1-3 vs 2 probability is very close to the expected 0.75 value.
Hence to get a long term profitable plan either we should raise the 1 percentage or the 3+ percentage.

In some way we should evaluate how many times 'coin flip' situations must shift toward one side or the another and how huge is the actual finite asymmetrical strenght favoring B side.
Moreover we must take into account the very slight propensity to get the opposite outcome already happened (good when wagering toward B singles and bad when wagering toward B 3's).

Let's randomly take a 10-shoes sample from my live shoes datasets:

1,1,3,2,2,1,3,1,2,1,1,3,2,3,3

1,1,1,1,2,2,2,1,2,3,2,3,3,1,1,1,2,1

3,1,1,1,2,1,1,1,2,3,1,2,2,1,1,2,1,1,2,3

1,1,1,3,1,1,1,2,1,3,1,1,2,3,3,1,1

1,2,1,1,2,2,1,1,1,1,2,3,1,3,2,1,1,1,3,2,2,1,1

1,2,1,1,1,1,3,1,3,1,2,2,2,1,2,2,1,3,1,1

2,2,2,1,1,2,1,1,2,2,1,2,1,2,2,2,3,1,1,1

1,1,1,1,1,1,3,3,1,1,3,3,1,1,1,1,1,2,1,1,3,2,1

1,1,2,2,1,3,3,2,3,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,2,2

3,1,2,3,3,3,1,1,2,1,2,1,2,3,1,3

Taken as 1s and 3s as wins and as 2s as losses and adopting a 1-2 mini progression (W=+1 and L= -3) we'll get an overall - 12 units loss (vig ignored for simplicity) so no short natural positive variance was involved here.

Nevertheless, a careful 'sections' W/L distribution will help us to define that an asymmetrical (yet mathematically proportional) betting made on a sure asymmetrical and dependent production cannot reach the unbeatable limits typical of pure symmetrical and independent situations.

Even at shoe #7 (10 2s and 10 1s/3s, a statistical abnormality) W streaks must come out, after all just one B 3+s streak had come out there (test your shoes and see how's unlikely is this happening).

It's like that profitable spots are surely happening along the way and of course they're not coming up when opposite situations seem to show up clustered at various degrees.

More on that next week

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: klw on October 06, 2021, 11:05:51 AM
Thanks for that advice AsymBacGuy , I will do that.

Looking at the random 10 shoes you listed, I worked out an average distribution for all 1/2/3 appearances for each shoe and applied it cumulatively.

The first 7 shoes show 3's under represented and 2's over represented and see what happens in shoe 8. Fill your boots for your system.

Of course reversion to the mean doesn't always happen like this and could happen a lot more gradually but this is how I observe random distribution and large corrections do happen.

Some will say that is a long patient wait for such occurrences and it can be but add other triggers to monitor in your game and wait for the best triggers.

Just an observation.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 10, 2021, 08:46:13 PM
Hi klw!
Your observation is a good one, imo  :thumbsup:

Shoes are just numbers and numbers are the reflex of patterns lenght


There are innumerable possible BP (and derived sequences) combinations at baccarat, yet we could take care just of the most likely patterns coming up along the way, getting rid of the most unlikely ones.
Of course we do not know the precise numbers distribution but we know that something must happen in a way or another at different degrees of probability

For example, if we'd bet toward getting two singles in a row at the start of the shoe, we know the general probability to win is 0.25, the same about getting two doubles in a row but now we need a double to come out as the very first pattern. In the sense that after a BB or PP sequence (that is a BBP or PPB) we'll bet respectively toward another P or B then playing the opposite side to limit that consecutive second double.
Again the probability is 0.25.

When we'd consider triples, we need a triple to come out and we know that any 3+ streak belongs to this category.
Thus BBB or BBBBBBBBB, or PPP or PPPPP is a triple.
Now to get another back to back (consecutive) triple of any kind we must bet two times the same side after the triple trigger has shown up.
So after BBB(P) we'll bet two times P, or after BBBBBBBBB(P) we'll bet two times P and the same about P triples. And guess what, the probability remains 0.25.

Oppositely thinking the probability not to get two consecutive same patterns in a row is 0.75 and of course it's the same fkng general probability to get two consecutive bets winning (or losing now by a 0.25 value).

But a baccarat shoe is not a 'sky's the limit' proposition, if it were we couldn't get a single possibility to win itlr.

I mean that those probabilities are dynamically placed along each shoe either for 'natural' reasons but more importantly for other features where a possible 'bad shuffling' takes a primary role.

More on that later

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: klw on October 10, 2021, 10:11:22 PM
Hi as -- Thanks for your endorsement.

I'm busy reading all your previous posts, lots of information to digest and great learning material.

In 1 of your posts you mention "Smoluchoswki studies " . Which part of his studies in particular are you referring to ?

Cheers.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 11, 2021, 03:18:58 AM
Marian von Smoluschowski was a Polish Physics Professor that made several interesting studies about Brownian motion and many other topics, including the several mentioned here 'probability after effects' (I voluntariily changed the second word with a 'events' word).
Simplifying a lot, a given independent 0-1 binomial succession having a 0.5 probability to appear (the event come out=1 or not=0) considered at different consecutive steps will form another succession by adding the previous number with the very next number, now the new succession loses the 'random' factor as some values cannot be reached.
   
Example:

B=1 and P=0

Say the original sequence looks as 1-1-1-0-1-0-0-1-0-1-1-0-1-0-1-0-0-0-1, if we want to add two consecutive 'values' we'll get:

2-2-1-1-1-0-1-1-1-2-1-1-1-1-0-0-0-1.

Naturally the value 2 may go back to 1 or remaining at 2, but it can't never directly go to 0; the same about 0: no way it can jump to 2 without before going to 1.

If the original sequence is really random and independent (and not affected by the natural asymmetry working at baccarat), the derived subsuccession (albeit being unrandom), will present 'unbeatable' values typical of a coin flip proposition.

Nonethless, a simple 'runs test' made on reliable samples will deny this possibility, in the sense that the original succession is more or less affected by a kind of unrandomness. Of course at values higher than the expected natural 'asymmetry' working at B favor.
Otherwise we're just considering 'natural' situations and not 'actual' situations.

In the above example and considering the Smoluchoswki subsuccession, we got 7 'runs' whereas at the original sequence the runs number was 12.

Now let's consider a strong polarized streaky shoe where the original sequence looks like as:

1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-1-1-1-1-0-0-0-0-0-1-1-1-1-0-0-0-0-1-1...

the Sm. succession will be:

2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-1-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-1-2-2-2-1-0-0-0-0-1-2-2-2-1-0-0-0-1-2....

original sequence got 7 runs and the Sm subsequence got 12 runs.

The exact counterpart of what happened at the first shoe.

Now let's compare how many shoes will get the original/derived suuccesions getting more runs at derived roads than at original sequence.

To falsify this hypothesis let's take three different real and very polarized shoes portions:

1) 0-0-1-1-0-0-1-1-0-0-0-1-1-1-0-0-1-1-1-0-1-1-0-0-1-1-0-0-1-1-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-1-1-1-1

that is a Sm derived sequence as

0-1-0-1-2-1-0-1-2-1-0-0-1-2-2-1-0-1-2-2-1-1-2-1-0-1-2-1-0-1-2-1-0-0-0-0-0-0-1-2-2-2...

original sequence got 16 runs and Sm subsequence got 31 runs.

2) 1-0-1-0-1-0-1-0-1-0-1-0-1-1-1-0-1-0-1-0-1-0-1-1-0-0-0-1-1-1-1-1-0-1-0-1-0-1-0-1...

SM derived sequence is:

1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-2-2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-2-1-0-0-1-2-2-2-2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1...

original sequence got 29 runs and Sm sequence just 9 runs.

3) 0-0-0-1-1-1-0-0-0-0-0-1-1-1-1-1-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-0-0-0-1-1-1-1-1...

original sequence got 8 runs and Sm subsequence got:

0-0-1-2-2-1-0-0-0-1-2-2-2-2-1-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-1-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-1-0-0-1-2-2-2-2...

15 runs.

Notice that regardless of the actual distribution,  the overall number of 'shifting' numbers at Sm subsuccessions will be superior to the number of 'same value' clusters, now matter how's the fk cards are arranged.

In the four shoe fragments displayed, and assigning a W at shifting clusters and a L at losing situations we'll get:

1- L L W L W L

2- L W L W L W L W

3- L L L W W L W L W L L

4- L W L W L W L W L W L W L W L

Notice again that Ws came out clustered just one time, so no 'positive variance' in the common intended sense had acted along the way, yet Ls are more likely to be followed by a W than by a L, another way to consider results.

Now we have the tools to set up a 'bringing down the house' strategy by adopting a careful multilayered progressive plan that makes baccarat as the best game to take casinos' money.

See you in a couple of days.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on October 12, 2021, 07:15:34 PM
Good thoughts klw/i like your analogies above.

Great exchange of thoughts /ideas with AsymBacGuy.


AsymBacguy above:

"...Mathematically speaking, B1<B2 but B2<B3, overall the 1-3 vs 2 probability is very close to the expecte..."

    Well said/I agree AsB as that is where our overall shoe success is decided(i.e., our decisions at the critical junction of B2), and I personally also view the jct at B3 as almost as critical, though we can "see the light" a little better once at B3, at least in my opinion.
Furthermore, to add to our confusion at these two junctions is the fact that Player has a slightly different personality profile and desires at its respective P1 and P2 junctions. 

     Although you(AsB ) et al have shed some light on the above junctions with discussions regarding related topics such as sym/asym hands and how they affect trends continuing or ending. I am still needing improvement on my response time so that I can apply (sym/asym hands  trends & prob) in real time and not after the fact.



AsymBacGuy:
"...Now we have the tools to set up a 'bringing down the house' strategy by adopting a careful multilayered progressive plan that makes baccarat as the best game to take casinos' money.
See you in a couple of days...."

     Hopefully that doesn't mean you are planning on rolling out the Smoluschowski Zillionaire System  for the general public to see---as casinos shall cease and be no more.   :) 
Just kidding as although one of my hobbies is studying great mathematicians from a few centuries ago. I actually had not heard of Marian Von Smouluschowski until u mentioned his name a year or so back on this thread.


Looking forward to your next post-- thx AsymBacGuy and continued success.kfb



Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: klw on October 12, 2021, 07:29:07 PM
Hi AsymBacGuy -- Many thanks for that reply.

I'll apologise in advance for my lack of grey matter ( or how I use it ) but can you point out where the runs are in your top example. I simply can't work it out.

" In the above example and considering the Smoluchoswki subsuccession, we got 7 'runs' whereas at the original sequence the runs number was 12. "

Cheers.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: klw on October 12, 2021, 09:13:08 PM
Hi AsymBacGuy  -- I don't want to become a pain asking lots of questions, I'm just trying to learn the game of Bacarrat. So if you want me to stop posting so as to not derail the flow of your thread , just say.

I have a question from a post of yours on March 15th. You wrote :-


" Say we have tested several shoes and the average shifting higher two-card point shows a median=3, that is 3 is the more likely shifting number between two sides (higher two-card points, not final results).
Thus we let go all inferior situations until we'll reach a shifting number of 3. "

I understand what 2 card point means and that we are measuring them rather than the final results.

1. We measure both sides independently ?
2. Can you show me an example of how you reach a shifting number of 3 ?


Cheers.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 12, 2021, 09:32:21 PM
Thanks both KFB and klw for your interest!

I've started to write a Smoluchoswki derived strategy but I've seen it's a too complicated strategy to post here and for sure we can get the same profits by adopting easier concepts.

What I name as 'runs' is the number of same situations shifting from one state to another.
For example a BBPBPPPPPPPBBPBBBBPBP pattern is made of 9 runs.

The same about a byb sequence as bbbrrbrbrbrrrrbbbrrbrbbrrr: it contains 15 runs.

Itlr the number of runs follows the expected general probability providing a random production.

To 'bring down the house' we need to know either the general probability to work but more importantly an actual evaluation about how good or bad are shuffled the cards.

For example, it's literally impossible to get all steady states happening at a given shoe and the same is true about unsteady states.
Imo it's a strong mistake hoping to get too many steady states for long and of course is a worse mistake to get unsteady states coming out for long as cards are not randomly shuffled, thus what happened is slight more likely to come out again than to get an opposite situation.

Rain is very unlikely in Las Vegas, yet on my very first trip there I've got 5 straight raining days in a row.
After all sh.it happens in clusters.

See you tomorrow

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 13, 2021, 01:28:05 AM
Quote from: klw on October 12, 2021, 09:13:08 PM
Hi AsymBacGuy  -- I don't want to become a pain asking lots of questions, I'm just trying to learn the game of Bacarrat. So if you want me to stop posting so as to not derail the flow of your thread , just say.

I have a question from a post of yours on March 15th. You wrote :-


" Say we have tested several shoes and the average shifting higher two-card point shows a median=3, that is 3 is the more likely shifting number between two sides (higher two-card points, not final results).
Thus we let go all inferior situations until we'll reach a shifting number of 3. "

I understand what 2 card point means and that we are measuring them rather than the final results.

1. We measure both sides independently ?
2. Can you show me an example of how you reach a shifting number of 3 ?


Cheers.

Higher two card initial points are getting a huge edge over the final outcomes, after all it's one of the main tool we should rely upon.
The average flow of the cards seem to get a cutoff point at 3 value, meaning that after a given side had reached three consecutive two-card higher points, the more likely situation will be to get a higher two-card hand on the opposite side.
Of course we must take into account some asymmetrical features favoring B side. Fortunately they don't come out very often, being their probability to happen just 8.6%.
In the short run variance will get a huge impact over the final results, itlr we are just taking casinos' money.

Anyway, yes, a progressive plan starting to work after three two-card higher points had fallen at given side and betting the opposite side will get us an edge. Be careful of ties that tend to erase such propensity.

An example is this:

B (8-4) P (3-4)

B (6-5) P (2-2)

B (6-K) P (9-J)

No matter how were the actual results, itlr the more likely hand will be B and you can shift the situations and the probability remains almost the same (as in the second hand an opposite situation will math favor the B side)

More generally speaking, any single baccarat shoe will present one or more 'jackpots' spots at various degrees, meaning that univocal patterns are going to show up for 'long' or at least one more time than the opposite situation.
So we must split a shoe into 'confusing' sections mixed by a fkng easy detectable world.

To do that we must consider several different subsuccessions, four of them are directly displayed on the screen (BR, Byb, sr and cr). We can add a 2-4 pace (we are registering the hands as same, S, or opposite O, by taking into account the second to last or fourth to last hand) or by setting up a 'super cr' road that is a sequence coming out by taking into account 4 back hands instead of 3 (cr). And so on.

After years of playing and studying this game, I would recommend to mainly consider BR and Byb as they are the best and easiest indicators to look for.

For that matter, sr is the best reliable indicator to know if shoes are 6-deck or 8-deck dealt before knowing the final amount of hands, and I say that with an almost certainty.

Let math experts to state otherwise, after all they are just pure losers when talking about baccarat.

But we need real fkng shoes samples to prove or disprove that, pc simulations are toilet paper.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on October 13, 2021, 03:13:10 AM
I will post several new brick & mortar shoes soon. 

And small cards favor the players side more so than the bankers side so many times.

Also smaller third cards are receipted by the players side and once again benefiting them or outright winning the hand without a third card draw for the bankers side. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: klw on October 13, 2021, 10:03:05 PM
@AsymBacGuy -- Many thanks for the explanation , it's much appreciated.

@alrelax -- Thanks and looking forward to that.

Cheers.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on October 14, 2021, 02:13:21 AM
Last sentence says it all.  That is, for the absolute real live serious player.

Which was: " The fact that it's very very difficult to win 3 or 4 shoes in a row means that things change in way or another, otherwise casinos would be out of business."

100% spot on.  Real life at the felt. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 14, 2021, 07:31:53 AM
Hi Al, sorry I had to cancel my last post, too detailed for my colleagues taste....

I report the last part of it.


Baccarat players lose by a 5% degree for HE and the remaining 95% comes from bad betting attitude (playing too many hands, bad bet selection, improper fluctuations assessment, etc).

Betting toward a more likely scenario is a good idea when actual things seem to be restricted within 'more likely' ranges. Otherwise it's a very bad mistake as unlikely events tend to come out either clustered or very diluted.

Good plans work in the long run, therefore they can't be successful at every situation encountered.

The fact that it's very very difficult to win 3 or 4 shoes in a row means that things change in way or another, otherwise casinos would be out of business.

as.

Sorry again, hope you'll post your shoes very soon, thanks!

as


Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on October 14, 2021, 07:30:15 PM
Hi AsymBacGuy

Im finding this thread informative /helpful.


ASB:

"...More generally speaking, any single baccarat shoe will present one or more 'jackpots' spots at various degrees, meaning that univocal patterns are going to show up for 'long' or at least one more time than the opposite situation.
So we must split a shoe into 'confusing' sections mixed by a fkng easy detectable world.  ..."

     This whole paragraph is worded very well.  I really like the following:
any single baccarat shoe will present one or more 'jackpots' spots at various degrees, meaning that univocal patterns are going to show up for 'long' or at least one more time than the opposite situation.
     
     I especially like  that thought  if the "jackpot event" and the likelihood that it (JE) presents one more time--

Im also of the opinion if the JE  presented for  the first time in the earlier stages (or early part of that particular subsection of the shoe),  versus latter stages , then the propensity to reappear is slightly greater.
Just an opinion as i haven't verified that across millions of shoes or sims. Although it seems we often see that previously observed formation or pattern beginning to show again and it simply runs out of time(or the shoe finishes with alot of ties,...etc.).


Continued Success To All,

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 17, 2021, 08:48:23 PM
Thanks KFB, again you've made good opinions.

About 'jackpots' (JE)

Differently to other games, baccarat presents an infinite variety of 'JE' where the 'starting event' of each class can come out or not, yet it's impossibile not to have at least a 'back to back' same result; sometimes an event will grow up to the 'jackpot' (all results are belonging to the same class or classes), other times a given event will be followed by a counter event several times, but even here we got a kind of 'hopping jackpot'.

Even though this seems an 'exoteric' way to consider things, everything derives by long samples considered by our old statistical tools that at baccarat work particularly well.

In fact jackpots can come out mainly when cards are so badly shuffled that 'incidental' events must come out in our favor despite of their unlikelihood.
No one math advantaged situation can last for long and for the entire lenght of the shoe, so even though we were to know which two initial cards are higher, we'll be destined to lose some hands.

Therefore and generally speaking, lesser is the number of hands wagered, higher will be the probability to profitably catch that 'bias' without the interference of variance.

More on that later

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 18, 2021, 02:24:03 AM
We may safely consider the 'baccarat problem' into the average probability to get two-card higher initial points as this is, by far, the main math feature affecting the final results.

How many fkng times two-card higher initial points are presenting clustered or isolated?
Surely not following a mere 50/50 independent proposition, this being typical of roulette outcomes or every other independent proposition.

Unfortunately, most bac players think baccarat as a game of outcomes and not about situations.

In addition, most of the times  long profitable spots cannot come out clustered for long, unless those 'incidental' spots that are supposed to break a flow tend to prolong a trend.

Say that three hands went 'normally' at B side, meaning that math propensity acting at those 2-card initial points went as expected (for simplicity we consider both sym and asym hands).
Now the fourth hand was as:

B (3-2)
P (7-J)

Banker draws and wins by catching a 3.

Is this hand forecasting a possible long Banker streak?

No way.

The 'flow' was interrupted by a more likely math advantaged hand, thus we should interpret this hand as a kind of new 0-point 'trigger' even though it seemed to prolong a given univocal pattern.

Now you should ask about those 'long' B or P streaks happening along the way.

Most of the times such streaks are coming out by breaking math features (or following or not them at asym hands) as the probability to get long sequences of two-card higher points at the same side is really low.
The same about getting many asym hands coming out in a row or shortly sequenced.

Since singles and doubles are the more likely occurences at baccarat, it's like that 'streaky' rich shoes are neglecting a math propensity acting at various degrees.

That's why I strongly recommend to stop the pattern classification within 1s, 2s and 3s classes.

Test your shoes and register how many two-card higher initial points will happen at the same side and how is the 'incidental' strenght acting along any shoe.
Independently of the actual results.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on October 19, 2021, 04:35:21 AM
Thx AsymBacGuy

Can you please clarify this last sentence in BOLD:

"...In addition, most of the times  long profitable spots cannot come out clustered for long, unless those 'incidental' spots that are supposed to break a flow tend to prolong a trend.

Say that three hands went 'normally' at B side, meaning that math propensity acting at those 2-card initial points went as expected (for simplicity we consider both sym and asym hands).
Now the fourth hand was as:

B (3-2)
P (7-J)

Banker draws and wins by catching a 3.

Is this hand forecasting a possible long Banker streak?

No way.

The 'flow' was interrupted by a more likely math advantaged hand, thus we should interpret this hand as a kind of new 0-point 'trigger' even though it seemed to prolong a given univocal pattern...."


Thx in advance,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 19, 2021, 08:58:53 PM
Hi KFB!

Bac results are mainly made by 50/50 math situations, the third card is just an 'interference' that will follow the same math expectations.
It's the third card that makes things confused or math shifted toward one side (for the rules).

If baccarat would be a mere higher 'two-initial' point proposition, the game wouldn't exist as too easily beatable.

Therefore there are two different levels to consider outcomes: one is the higher two-card point distribution and the other one is the actual results (distribution).
Of course we do not win nothing while betting the math advantaged 2-card side when the final result is opposite, nevertheless some math disadvantaged hands will come out at our favor but by a way lesser degree of appearance (not only itlr but even at short-intermediate runs).
So our plan must rely upon those math advantaged situations to succeed, at the same time giving a 'dynamic' value about those rarer spots disregarding math.
   

Cards can be shuffled by infinite ways, yet there are more likely statistical distributions happening along the way as each card has a different impact over the outcomes.
Hence 2-card initial points are following a more likely distribution made of some steps and cutoff points, naturally not happening at every shoe dealt.

Example.

Consider long streaks (say higher than 5) happening at either side.
Most of the times such streaks are neglecting a math advantage/disadvantage or acting within very restricted limits about their potential winning probability.
Think about one side getting a 6 or a 7 and the other one showing a natural and so on.
Or whenever a PPPP sequence will be prolonged (or formed) by an asymmetrical hand favoring B that went wrong so producing a PPPPP pattern.

At B side, natural 2-card math advantaged spots will mix (or not) with a finite number of asymmetrical hands favoring the same Banker side, whenever the math edge goes right we'll get a long B streak.

But in both cases such scenarios must be considered as 'erasing' spots of the natural math 2-card propensity to get this or that.

That is that 1,2,3,4... levels of statistical propensity to get 2-card higher initial points must be assessed by disregarding actual results.

I'll give you more examples later

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 20, 2021, 03:09:39 AM
Forget math issues, I'll try to simplify our strategical thoughts.

In our opinion easiest plan to put in action is by taking into account BR and byb roads as they are 'mutually exclusive' at 'finite' degrees, meaning that no matter how things are developing, the vast majority of the times they'll reach detectable values.

For example, a sequence as

BB
P
BB
P
BBBB
PP
B
P
B
PPP...

provides two patterns of four 1-2 sequences and at byb road the situation looks as:

bbbbb
rr
b
r
bb
rr
b
r...

A six 1-2 straight sequence.

This sequence is going to get a statistical advantage no matter when we'll decide to wager.

Now let's take a more intricated sequence as

BBB
PPPPPPP
B
PP
BB
P
BB
P
B
P
BB
P...

at byb road the sequence looks as

rr
b
rrr
bbbb
rr
bbbb
rr
bb...

Now we have a nine 1-2 straight sequence at BR and a two 1-2 sequence at byb.
In another way of considering results, first registration is affected by a very low degree of 'shifting' strenght (few 3s, many singles and doubles) and the byb presents just one single and all streaks of some lenght.

We know that an average card distribution tend to get opposite BR and BYB patterns unless long consecutive BP streaks come out and for sure itlr such streaks are affected by a mathematical and/or statistical 'bias'.

Take this very unlikely shoe's portion (yet it's a real shoe dealt at Encore casino, LV):

BBBBB
PPPP
BBBBBBBBBBBBB
PPP
BBBB
PP
BBB
PPPPPPP
BB
PPPPP
B

No one 1-2 patterns happened, just 10 consecutive streaks.

Byb looks as

rrr
b
rrr
b
rrrrrrrr
b
rr
b
rr
bb
r
b
r
bb
rr
b
rrr
b
r
b
r
b
rr
b...

From a 1-2 pattern point of view we got 1,1,11, 6,... situations. So in a way or another a kind of 'steady' situation to be exploited happened.

Now let's take a BR sequence not getting many 1-2 sequences:

BBBBBB
P
BBBB
P
BBB
P
BB
PPP
B
PPPP
BBB
P
BB...

At BR 1-2 sequences got 1,1,2,1,(-1) appearance (six 3+ streaks in twelve columns, not a likely scenario to happen)

Byb got:

bb
rr
bbb
r
bbbb
r
bbbb
rr
b
rr
bbb...

Now the 1-2 probability is 2,1,1,3.

Now let's compare the BR 1,1,2,1 (-1) sequence with the Byb 2,1, 1, 3 sequence.

Are there many BR patterns following for long the same positional Byb patterns when taking into account the simple 1-2 (single-double) plan?

Even in the worst scenarios they simply can't. And the main problem is about avoiding colliding events.

Consider this shoe's portion (just two singles and eight streaks):

BBB
P
BBBBBB
PP
BBBB
P
BB
PPPPP
BB
PPPPPPP

that is a 1,1,2  (single-double) pattern.

At byb road we'll get:

1, 6, 8.

If the game is random and hand by hand independently placed, 1s at BR (or vice versa) should be followed by 1s at BYB by a 25% probability (as superior than 1s spots take the remaining 75% part), but it's not the case.

More simply speaking, most of the times when 1-2 patterns tend to be silent for long at either BR or BYB roads, the other sequence will get plenty of valuable positive sequences up to the point that we can't be interested about the precise spot to wager at.

After all, it's very very very unlikely to get many contemporary positional 1s at both BR and BYB, we need to manually arrange cards in order to get that.

Even if 1s tend to unlikely take the same position at both roads, well 3+ streaks are not coming around so often and when they are they tend to show up clustered thus giving more room to 1-2 patterns.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on October 20, 2021, 05:38:09 AM
Hi AsymBacGuy and thx for your prompt reply. I will respond back in a couple days as I will need to review your last couple essays. I "think" I understand what you are saying, though Im not 100% clear on the application process in real time.

For example in the following paragraph (in part):

"...At B side, natural 2-card math advantaged spots will mix (or not) with a finite number of asymmetrical hands favoring the same Banker side, whenever the math edge goes right we'll get a long B streak.

But in both cases such scenarios must be considered as 'erasing' spots of the natural math 2-card propensity to get this or that.

That is that 1,2,3,4... levels of statistical propensity to get 2-card higher initial points must be assessed by disregarding actual results. ..."[/b]

     I will review some of your posts just prior to this one  before I ask questions as u may have already elaborated on this ,
Thx kfb



Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 20, 2021, 10:19:30 PM
Hi KFB!!

Say we have a method that on average dictates to bet 15 times per shoe (playable shoe)
Even adopting a multilayered progression we need a substantial amount of winning situations and those cannot come out other than by crossing more two-card math advantaged situations than third card 'miracles'.
When it happens that our wins derive too much from such 'miracle' spots, we know that in the near future we'll pay dearly this 'privilege'.

Obviously a 'random' betting will get a balanced number of third card winning or losing spots disregarding the math advantaged side.
But a solid approach must get a slight superior number of math advantaged hands to succeed as it's way more likely to win starting as favorite than underdog.

Cards speaking we could summarise things in such way:

-When our method dictates to bet Player we just hope to get a 'standing' point (naturals and 7s and 6s), then a drawing hand with a superior two-card value than Banker, then a drawing hand crossing a 0, 1 or 2 Banker point (no asymmetrical hand). An exception of the asym B edge comes when P shows a 5 and B a 4.
Everything different from that is a long term losing proposition more often than not.

-When we bet Banker we need first a natural, then an asymmetrical hand, then a standing point. Everything different from that is a long term losing proposition more often than not (vig counts, sigh)

Since our plan must be adopted within range of hands and not single hands, we might add to our strategy a 'hand quality' feature.

This help us to stop or prolong a given patterns attack happening at a given shoe.

But more importantly is to understand that making a living at this game means to bet very few hands, accepting the temporary negative fluctuations without the urge to bet anything different than what we had devised.
Always knowing that unlikely stuff tends to come out clustered, especially if we got a sign after the first-intermediate portions of the shoe (as you correctly sayed KFB, imo).


After making some observations by following HS players bets, it's quite curious (yet confirming our theory) to have seen that WL result movements of each player rarely took a 'hopping' fashion: W and L streaks of any kind are more prevalent than WLW or LWL sequences.

So e.g. after placing four straight bets, each player seemed to have got a lesser amount of 2/16 occurences (WLWL and LWLW) than expected.
Probably this fact is due as 99.9% of HS players prefer to adopt a 'trend following' strategy that it's less probable to produce 'hopping' situations than polarized spots at either way.

I know at least a couple of serious players trying to get advantage of such 'math unsound' feature.
No need to follow other players though (even if a large players pool will amplify this possible effect): try to follow patterns in the way you want and register how many times you'll get W or L streaks and WL hopping situations.

After all if you realize that by following trends you'll get a fair amount of WLW or LWL fair long spots, you'll start to increase your second bet after a loss.
It's like that the human mind 'road' loves to avoid 'alternative' spots for long.

as.   
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 20, 2021, 10:29:28 PM
Next weekend we'll see how to get the best of it by exploiting card distribution flaws.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 24, 2021, 12:03:22 AM
Think more deeply about the 'WL probability' even by accounting the slight asymmetrical BP probability.

In the long run, math values teach us that there's no way to spot possible favourable outcomes as an EV- game remains an EV- proposition, so producing a cumulutive long term loss for the player.

So in order to possibly find a long term winning plan we're forced to dispute that each betting spot is EV-, and not by trying to bypass the EV- issue by adopting a betting progression that 'seems' to overcome it in short-intermediate runs.

Practically speaking, we must work toward a possibile betting scheme capable to lower the expected sd values (our wacthdog of variance).

In a sense, we shouldn't work about finding a constant winning betting scheme, just about a given plan that makes slower than expected movements around a 0 point.
It's now that a given progression (or a fictional registration making more likely movements to happen) will get its full power.

To ascertain this, we must consider the correlation between back to back outcomes assessed by several degrees of quantity and quality.

For example B/P successions are made of the 'simplest' form of situations: either one side wins or loses.
Derived roads are made by a 'quantity' superior degree of distribution: either one side wins or loses by a mechanical preordered scheme of different paces distribution.

A 'quality' distribution may be evaluated by assessing how many times an asymmmetrical hand comes out   (consecutively or not), how many times a third card helps the Player side or the Banker side, and so on.

It's like that we are trying to approximate the actual distribution with the 'general math laws' distribution by considering how many times and how long the actual shoe is following or disregarding math values.

Since the job will be quite difficult to precisely carry out in practice, we just take care of BP and derived patterns shape.

We ought to remember that a given A or B pattern will be more or less prevalent not only about its general probability to happen, but about the actual distribution/general probability ratio dynamic assessment.

To make a vulgar example, say a A political candidate was univocally favored to win by a 65% vs 35% edge over the B second one, but after 80% of the votes B was ahead of something.
Now would you make a bet that even the remanining 20% of the votes would privilege B candidate?
Or, better sayed, do you think there are better ways to consider such 20% remaining part of votes (for example in term of clustered and isolated spots)?

Say we are running the above example 100 times at different worldwide locations, that is 100 favorite A candidates were 65% favorite to win over their opposite B candidates.
In this instance we're sure that at least half of the A candidates will win, again we should take care of the final results per every candidate after 80% of the votes. Are there spots to know if a A or B bet will be more likely to win?

Anybody could argue that political polls (assigning a 0.65/0.35 A/B probability) might easiliy be more wrong than math baccarat values, yet there are no ways to state that a 100 baccarat sample gets a greater or same degree of 'randomness' happening at the political polls, unless we've measured that future results are constantly independent at various levels of previous results.

Since this doesn't seem to be the case, we can conclude that results are somewhat sensitive about previous outcomes, the reason being about an actual card distribution making some patterns more likely than others at certain steps and after some situations happened.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on October 24, 2021, 02:47:22 AM
Hi AsymBacGuy--again , appreciate your willingness to elaborate as you do.

"...Since this doesn't seem to be the case, we can conclude that results are somewhat sensitive about previous outcomes, the reason being about an actual card distribution making some patterns more likely than others at certain steps and after some situations happened.."


Can you give us a couple examples of certain outcomes you most commonly track/ and the implications for wagering later in the shoe. So would you now be more inclined to look for (another of the same) event just observed or in some cases maybe (NOT another of the same)  event just observed???


Another Example: e.g., A somewhat similar topic/example you touched on in an essay a few days ago regarding consecutive same side winners by first-two-cards.  So in this question & for illustrative purposes lets say P just won three consec decisions and for this exercise lets say they won with  two-card Naturals /their totals presented as:

Player received (2-6=8, 3-5=8, 4-4=8) .
Disregarding what B received as all we know is B had totals <8 on its respective hands.

     Would you interpret the results  as P will likely be receiving fewer Naturals going forward because there are now (N-3) Naturals remaining in the shoe.
(OR)
Would you think wow Player must have the hot hand so I shall bet only P in the near future??? Other interpretations?
How would you apply the above info so that it would increase your probability of guessing with a greater accuracy in the remainder of shoe??

Thx in advance,kfb
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 24, 2021, 09:19:01 PM
Hi KFB!!

Can you give us a couple examples of certain outcomes you most commonly track/ and the implications for wagering later in the shoe. So would you now be more inclined to look for (another of the same) event just observed or in some cases maybe (NOT another of the same)  event just observed???


You can take as example my ub plan #1, so we are always betting toward the same patterns. What counts is the frequency of our actual wagers and, more importantly, their distribution shoe per shoe.
Hence if we wish to apply a flat betting scheme we must restrict at most our field of operations, looking for back to back positive outcomes surpassing the 1 cutoff (that is 1->2). In this instance we do not care about possible 2->3 or 3->4, etc superior situations, thus the losng spot is whenever 1->0 comes out.
Naturally and besides the trigger happening, in order to find possible profitable spots we make a lot of fictional betting, a thing denied by mathematicians.

Conversely, a kind of 'sky's the limit' approach must progressively bet more hands, but the spotting profitability 'concepts' remain the same, albeit being now more frequent.
That's the 'jackpots' occurence I was talking about in my previous posts.

For that matter, it's very likely that those rare pros are adopting an intermediate strategy, that is looking for rare triggers happening (or not) at one shoe, then adjusting future bets by a 'light' progression, name it a sort of 'enforced flat betting'.


Player received (2-6=8, 3-5=8, 4-4=8) .
Disregarding what B received as all we know is B had totals <8 on its respective hands.

     Would you interpret the results  as P will likely be receiving fewer Naturals going forward because there are now (N-3) Naturals remaining in the shoe.
(OR)
Would you think wow Player must have the hot hand so I shall bet only P in the near future??? Other interpretations?
How would you apply the above info so that it would increase your probability of guessing with a greater accuracy in the remainder of shoe??


It depends about the actual patterns distribution I'm interested at.

Naturals have a great degree of appearance (34.2%) amongst all hands and 8s and 9s play a slight greater role than naturals formed by other two card combinations (134/118 at one deck).
In your example there are two conflicting situations: from one side P seems to be 'hot' and on the other end many low cards (favoring Player) came out.

Anyway P got a 3 streak, so we shouldn't be really interested about future immediate hands P related and definitely our main job is to find out the situations when something will either stop or prolong regardless of the transitory B or P predominance.
Always considering the simplest feature of close to coin flip distributions: within two attempts half of the times we'll broke even, in the remaining part we'll either lose or win.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 26, 2021, 11:22:24 PM
The average shoe card asymmetrical distribution

Even though card combinations are innumerable, more often than not and itlr back to back results will form more likely patterns of certain lenght.
Anyway this feature will mainly happen whenever cards are real randomly shuffled; without the doubt of being contradicted, a series of perfect random shuffled single shoes will present sure detectable spots to be exploited.
Unfortunately real baccarat shoes are made of 6 or 8 decks and, more importantly, they are not perfect randomly shuffled.

Try to tell casinos to deal baccarat with one deck shoes and they'll respond you 'no way', even if you're wagering thousands per hand.
We've tried this knowing the obvious negative answer.

Curiously math negative values working at single deck shoes or multiple deck shoes are more or less the same, yet casinos haven't offered once baccarat single deck shoes (or double deck shoes for that matter).

The main reason why baccarat is not offered by single deck shoes is not about their vulnerability (math remains the same) but about the side bets issue where casinos make huge sums of money, at the same time now being quite worried about a possible card counting scheme.

Now about the random or unrandom shuffle.

It's way more likely to randomly shuffle one deck than multiple decks, so with multiple decks in use it'll be  more difficult to get an 'average' impact of key cards.
On the other end, unrandom shuffles will make some portions of the shoe more likely to produce univocal patterns by a superior average lenght.
Meaning that differently to one deck shoes, multiple deck shoes are more affected by a kind of stronger propensity to get this or that within different portions of the shoe.
In some way we could deduce that at multiple shoes and more often than not we are strongly favorite to get this or that for long. See for reference what I've talked about hopping WL sequences.

A possible bringing down the house strategy

Since by any means shoes are surely asymmetrically placed by different issues, Ws and Ls are more likely placed by a polarized 'streaky' movement than by a 'hopping' WL distribution happening for long.
Notice that this is true no matter what the actual strategy is utilized, of course we've devised a strict mechanical placement to get the best of this feature.
That's particularly true whenever we compare mulitple random walks extracted by the same sequence, having each a cutoff point where things must change.

For example, let's consider thsi shoe's portion:

B
P
B
P
B
P
B
PPP
B
P
B
P
B
P
BBBB
P...

Betting toward B or P streaks will get a great amount of 'hopping situations', nonethless let's see what happens at derived roads:

byb:

rrrrrr
b
r
bb
rrrrr
b
rr
b

sr:

rrrrr
b
r
bb
rrrrr
b
rr
b

cr:

rrrr
b
r
b
rrrrrr
b
rr
b

At BR streaks got a 6 and 5 gaps, at byb streak gaps were 2, 1; at sr streak gaps were 2, 1; at cr streak gaps were 3,1.

Even in this pretty 'hopping' BP scenario we got five streak gaps superior than 1 and three streak gaps of 1.
More importantly, notice what happened about all derived roads gaps, promptly followed by short 'non streak' sequences.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 26, 2021, 11:43:24 PM
Now let's consider a totally fkng undetectable shoe's portion as:

BB
P
BBB
P
B
PP
B
P
BBBBB
PPPP
B...

Here BR streak gaps got a 1, 2, 2 gaps.

At byb:

bb
r
bb
r
bbb
r
b
rrr
b
rrr
b


at sr:

b
r
bbb
r
bb
rrr
bb
rr
b

at cr:

b
rr
b
rrr
b
rr
bb
rr
b

Byb streak gaps: 1, 1, 1

sr streak gaps: 2, 1

cr streak gaps: 1, 1, 1

See if you could devise a more likely pattern....

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 27, 2021, 12:19:57 AM
Even though some different sequences spring out from a conflicting situation, most part of them are coming out from a 'streaky' propensity that cannot be wrong for long, especially whether we're assessing each deviation step class not belonging to the 1 or 2 gaps level.

It's now that a multilayered progressive plan can destroy the house as a a kind of impossible balanced symmetrical card distribution cannot act for long at one or more than one of the four roads examined (and we know there are infinite derived roads to look for).

Discount the 0 streak sequences (that is consecutive streaks happening at each road), now assess how long a streak will be silent for 1 or 2 times (or more times) at each road registration and per each 1 or 2 class considered.
Always remembering that rare events are more likely to show up clustered and then followed by a very diluted pace of apparition.


as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on October 27, 2021, 06:19:34 PM
Hi AsymBacGuy

I've enjoyed perusing through all your recent posting activity/though not responding daily I am indeed viewing/pondering your thoughts.

re: reply #465 above: "...Always remembering that rare events are more likely to show up clustered and then followed by a very diluted pace of apparition. .."

     I agree especially when viewed from say a specific perspective of >=4 IAR  same-side streaks.
On the same topic:

Q: Would you also agree with an almost similar inverse logic/statement: (i.e., a very diluted pace of apparition is often followed by a clustered rare event)??

Continued Success,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 31, 2021, 10:41:38 PM
Hi KFB!!!

Would you also agree with an almost similar inverse logic/statement: (i.e., a very diluted pace of apparition is often followed by a clustered rare event)??

It depends about the 'rare' definition of an event or class of events.
At baccarat 'rarer' events tend to come out clustered not only for their past diluted appearance at previous shoes but as cards are not properly shuffled.

Remember the old adage stating that players have no hint about advantaged spots to bet into, nonetheless any player who have won at a given shoe will more likely return his/her money to the house at the next shoes unless a moderate or strong 'bias' keep happening.

No matter what, most of the times the 'clustering' effect will place things in a way that some spots will be more detectable than the counterpart, always accounting their general probability to happen.

For example, take the cr.
Singles are fighting vs streaks and doubles are struggling vs 3+ streaks.
If baccarat would be made by an infinite succession of 50/50 independent propositions, the number of doubles vs 3+s streaks will get sd values typical of coin flip propositions, that is unbeatable spots.

Really?

I guess that most serious baccarat players would wager toward one class of outcomes than toward the other one, providing to start and stop the betting in the proper circumstances.

More on that later

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on November 01, 2021, 03:06:18 AM
The difference between baccarat and a 50/50 independent proposition game is that at the former game some events distributions, whether properly assessed either in quality and quantity, are 'more due' than expected.

Reasons why this thing should be true is based about place selection and collectives (RVM), probability after effects (M. v. Smoluchowski) , probability in decline (Spencer-Brown) and asymmetrical BP probability (bac rules) tools, everything tends to work (or not) toward a more likely scenario after something had happened.

When reading those considerations math 'experts' will laugh at them, mainly as they do not know a fkng nothing about those important statistical tools, after all they have a zero chance to beat baccarat itlr.

Back to a 'bringing down the house' strategy.

Differently of waiting for unlikely math polarized situations favoring player (e.g. getting at black jack deck portions particularly rich of high cards) at baccarat we must confide that either the actual card distribution cannot provide back to back symmetrical situations for long and/or that streaks of a certain lenght considered as a 'class' won't happen isolated for long.

Moreover the 'results pace' will make an interesting role in that.
Take the cr.

One of our math 'id.i.ot' random walk will take care of 3+s streaks happening at cr.
Cr doubles are losses and cr 3+ streaks are winners.
Ok itlr the number of doubles is supposed to be equal to the number of 3+s streaks.

Who gives a sh.i.t?

After a 3+s streak happened at cr, the probability to get another 3+ streak vs a double within two attempts will be quite more limited than what a 50/50 independent proposition dictates.

Say that before placing a bet we want to classify such random walk in terms of WL ratios, waiting for a given negative deviation before betting.

Thus any 3-3 or 3-2-3 cr occurence will get us a win; any 3-2-2-x-x pattern will get us a loss.
Since at this plan singles are 'neutral', we'll wait that two consecutive b or r dots will show up, then wagering two times toward triples instead of doubles after a 3+ streak had come out.

Try to set up a progressive multilayered strategy after 2 or 3 fictional double attempts were unsuccessul and you'll get the idea.

The advantage of betting cr is that there's no way to arrange cards in order to get a lot of doubles interpersed with rare 3s.

For that matter, even a st.u.pid progressive plan disregarding the actual 3+ negative deviation will make the best of it by wagering toward 3s clusters and one-gap 3s clusters than rarefied isolated 3s.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on November 03, 2021, 01:24:12 AM
Card distributions at baccarat shoes

It's the constant inviariable asymmetrical card distribution that makes baccarat as the best beatable game among the gambling panorama.
Math edge cannot do anything about a 'biased' production even though each bet is somewhat taxed.
Moreover baccarat is the only game where every side bet is mathematically beatable via card counting.

Casinos had made, are making and will make a lot of profits from this game primarily because we players try to do our best to lose.

In some way playing too many hands doesn't enlarge casinos' profits for the house edge, just let the players to easily lose their control over the entire picture.
Casinos want us to 'guess' every hand dealt but the asymmetrical feature takes its full power only after a classification made by a diluted pace (sections), therefore 'every hand bettors' are forced to hope for unlikely 'human' easy detectable patterns as long streaks, steady one side predominance, long hopping spots or whatever is more likely to be caught by a human eye.

Those situations are surely coming out from a kind of asymmetrical strenght but they all belong to too few categories to be normally exploited. 

Actually nothing prevent us to take advantage of those unlikely 'univocal' situations, especially when we have reasons to think that shoes are not properly shuffled.

An asymmetrical BP succession could be splitted into infinite sub successions

Derived roads invented in the 70s are the most notorious example why a BP succession could be considered (and exploited) by different angles.
Original authors were concerned about a kind of 'univocal' situations happening at different paces of registration.

Now the BP probability is shifted toward various degrees of 'same' or 'opposite' states not belonging to an asymmetrical B/P probability.

In some way derived road inventors couldn't give a s.h.it about B>P propensity, they have just considered blue and red spots distribution.

Probably they didn't know (but Kashiwagi did and some others after him) that they have set up a decisive tool to beat this game, that is transforming a light asymmetrical succession into symmetrical sequences that do enlarge the actual asymmetrical card distribution happening along any shoe.

Mathematicians will say that subsequences derived by a 'random' original sequence will follow the same statistical features working at the original one but by far and by a degree approaching the 100% statistical confidence they are wrong.

We can take for granted that baccarat shoes, in a way or another, are affected by a kind of bias happening on the vast majority of them. It's up to us to exploit such flaw, remembering that such bias more often than not cannot last for the entire lenght of the shoe.
And of course knowing that biases are either coming out clustered at various degrees or very diluted (that is not exploitable).

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on November 04, 2021, 05:01:09 AM
Thx/Good essay AsymBacGuy

"...Math edge cannot do anything about a 'biased' production even though each bet is somewhat taxed.  ..."

     Well said/ IMO this "biased production" is also displayed in most even-chance wager games(e.g., Roul, craps line et al games). Though I do agree Bac is optimum and offers the best opportunities for exploitation(not just because of low H.E.)



"... Casinos want us to 'guess' every hand dealt but the asymmetrical feature takes its full power only after a classification made by a diluted pace (sections)..."

     Q: Do you mean after the event has "underperformed" in a prior section of that shoe?? Can you talk a little more about this diluted pace(sections)? Thank you.


Continued Success,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on November 08, 2021, 02:18:44 AM
Hi KFB and thanks again!
I appreciate a lot your thoughts.

There is no vaccine against math edge working for one side or another, but there are strong vaccines against it once we have understood the real environment where such math edge should work at.

If any spin, roll or outcome is independent from the previous one/s, we'll have harsh (let's say impossible) times to validate our hypothesis that a given game is beatable.
Yes, even at baccarat most of the outcomes seem to be independently placed, apparently working toward a 'everything is possible' environment, yet we should remember that bac results are coming out from a finite asymmetrical card distribution acting at an already asymmetrical proposition dictated from the rules.

Q: Do you mean after the event has "underperformed" in a prior section of that shoe?? Can you talk a little more about this diluted pace(sections)? Thank you.


Definitely.

People who consistently beat this game know very well the card distribution limits, you can present them the most whimsical shoes in the universe and they'll decide the right time to bet (or not).
For the natural attitude that some players like to wager money over other peers' already placed bets, most of the times they will go unnoticed.
And btw casinos do not give a damn about those people as the vast majority of players lose and lose.
Not mentioning that unless a verified math edge works against them, they are not worried a bit.

Technical features

Probability after effects, place selection and other statistical tools applied to baccarat teach us that a baccarat card distribution will follow lines getting limiting values of relative frequency more restricted than what a 50/50 or 50.68/49.32 propositions dictate.

Therefore any shoe is affected by degrees of deviation not following a perfect independent production; after cards are shuffled and arranged into a shoe we surely know results are not belonging to a 50/50 or kind of distribution.

Depending upon which kind of pace we wish to register the results, we'll get different 'states' of distribution, either in homogeneous or heterogenous shapes.

Long B or P streaks and long B/P chopping lines will both get a univocal homogeneous red line at every derived road.

Long BBPBBPBBPBBP or PPBPPBPPBPPB sequences will get either a blue (2/3 of the times, byb an cr) constant line and a red constant line (1/3 of the times, sr).

All those scenarios imply a strong asymmetrical or kind of fake symmetrical feature that cannot last for the entire lenght of the shoe.

Let's falsify this theory, now betting toward long B or P streaks and/or long B/P chopping lines and/or long BBPBBPBBP/PPBPPBPPB sequences and you'll get the idea.

After all, the number of r/b shifts happening at every shoe dealt is well more restricted than what a kind of coin flip proposition dictates, with good peace of (losing) mathematicians.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on November 13, 2021, 04:48:53 PM
Thanks AsymBacGuy . I appreciate your reply to my Q above.

"... yet we should remember that bac results are coming out from a finite asymmetrical card distribution acting at an already asymmetrical proposition dictated from the rules..."
     Perfectly stated and its the word finite that we should always remember when at the Bac tables.

     That in my opinion is one of the main differences between Bac and many comparable games  that instead utilize dice vs cards(primarily games such as craps). Yet gaming authors and casino employees incessantly blather on "its just a fitty-fitty coin flip game", suggesting that it doesn't matter how we wager/ "no advantage to be found here".

One of several reasons there is a difference "when comparing games" : (i.e., In Bac obviously the marbles are not placed back into the jar after each drawing of balls(i mean cards).  However, if we only look at the outcomes profile of results when comparing Bac to Craps--they will indeed look similar and will indeed converge toward expectation. Yet IMO two completely different games.  Again, just my personal thoughts.


Continued Success ,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on November 14, 2021, 11:21:33 PM
Hi KFB!!

That in my opinion is one of the main differences between Bac and many comparable games  that instead utilize dice vs cards(primarily games such as craps). Yet gaming authors and casino employees incessantly blather on "its just a fitty-fitty coin flip game", suggesting that it doesn't matter how we wager/ "no advantage to be found here".


Exactly, I agree too, such people keep thinking the game as a coin flip or 0.5068/0.4932 propositions not considering at all the source of the results taken distinctively

Of course itlr distinct ditributions will converge toward the math expected values, but a precise card distribution will get way more restricted values toward one 'status' (pseudo equilibrium) or the other one (light, moderate or strong deviation) and the final math assessment must be calculated by the root mean square.

Thus if we're going to apply a kind of 'balancement' strategy we must hope that the actual shoe is full of pseudo equilibrium spots, and not that at some point of the shoe things will change (toward deviations of some entity). That is the shoe we're playing at hopefully must contain root mean square values lower than expected.

Conversely, a kind of 'deviation' strategy must hope that the root mean square tool will get its expected value at different degrees and we just need a number different to zero to get a sort of advantage.

Again let's consider how many times a given A or B (or W and L) opposing scenario will get long 'hopping' sequences vs homogeneous sequences and we know that the latter case is well more likely.

Raise the general probability to succeed and we see that such 'hopping' balanced scenario will be more and more unlikely.
After all, the root mean square value (and values acting toward it) must happen at some point for three diifferent reasons:

- it's a normal situation happening even at pure independent propositions;

- the game is produced by a sure asymmetrical card distribution;

- the A/B or whatever taken x/y propositions are asymmetrical by definition.

In some sense any single fkng shoe dealt is affected by a number of 'pseudo equilibrium' spots and 'deviation' spots where the latter tool tends to be more prominent (or not quite balanced by the opposite situation) than the other one.

Say that cards are voluntarily arranged toward a strong balanced status, meaning that 'trend following players' (constituting the vast majority of bac bettors) will get no hint to bet this or that.

Really?

Card distributions making strong balanced distributions (that is not reaching the mean square value) for long cannot happen at all four common registrations (BR, byb, sr and cr), let alone about other random walk registrations.

The number of -1/0, 0/-1 and +1/0 and 0/+1 spots cannot last for long as they MUST jump to -1/-2 and +1/+2 spots. And so on.
If the 0 value would be reached several times in short sequences, baccarat wouldn't exist.
And btw it would be a strong falsification of the sure fact (not hypothesis) that cards are asymmetrically distributed per each shoe.

Whenever a shoe is forming at a given subsuccession a higher than expected number of 'pseudo equilibrium' spots (huge number of very low deviations going around a 0 point), odds are that subsequent shoes will approach more and more the root mean square (RMS) value, meaning that the same succession will get more deviations than 'pseudo equilibrium' spots, and it's now that we'll get an edge over the house.

Globally, our edge is estimated to be 3% over the house AFTER VIG, a huge edge I mean.

This edge comes from a simple RMS natural happening:

- from 7 to 12 hands played the RMS is 3
- from 13 to 20 hands played the RMS is 4
- from 21 to 30 hands played the RMS is 5
- from 31 to 42 hands played the RMS is 6
- from 43 to 56 hand played the RMS is 7

and so on...

Even though a strict flat betting scheme will get the best of it, we can easily set up a kind of 'bringing down the house' strategy by adopting a progression that cannot be wrong by any means as the probability to lose the entire bankroll is almost not existent.

We'll see it in a couple of days.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on November 17, 2021, 01:20:07 AM
Natural deviations at any shoe dealt

If you toss a fair coin for long, sooner or later you'll encounter 20 or more heads or tails in a row and/or every other strong predominance following the expected sd values.
For example a streak of 20 at either side will come out, on average, two times over more than 1 million trials.
It's a normal happening everyone knows here.

The same could happen at baccarat, long streaks happen of course more probably at B side.

What it's interesting is that all intermediate situations are taking a univocal expected distribution at a coin flip proposition but slight different lines at baccarat.

Due to the asymmetrical card distribution typical of baccarat shoes, you can take for grant that most part of our bets will be either hugely right or hugely wrong as two-card initial situations will mathematically dictate the final result by a very strong edge.
A thing completely different than a coin flip proposition where each bet made will get a symmetrical probability to be right or wrong.

No matter the strategy employed, this feature endorses the probability that things will tend to come out wrong or right more in clusters than in isolated fashions. Shoe per shoe.

It's a sure fact that casinos will make tons of money from baccarat tables as players cannot realize how many bets are placed into the 'negative territory' (almost always by improperly increasing the wagers) and how many bets are placed into the 'positive territory' by low or too low amounts.

The math edge is just a 'booster' for casinos and not the main cause for they are collecting millions from baccarat.

From a technical point of view, we can summarize and simplifying the issue by expecting more W clusters and L clusters than long WL or LW spots as the root mean square deviation must happen shortly (especially when strong WL and/or LW states seem to negate this natural appearance).

Of course taking B and P as the main registration to base our strategy upon and under normal circumstances is among the silliest things to do that casinos particularly like.
'Smart strategies' as betting B after PPP or PPPP are just a waste of time and an insult to common intelligence that were tested and demonstrated to be as totally worthless.
(Those who are disputing this assumption are invited to confirm their hypothesis by betting B after three or four random hands are dealt regardless of the BP outcome, and results will get the same negative EV).

Our progression, part 1

There are no other ways around to confirm that baccarat is beatable by adopting a strategy different than a flat betting scheme. Maybe a well calibrated progression could dilute the risk of ruin but sooner or later this ruin will happen.
If not, it means that along with a careful MM, a strong valid bet selection is in order.
And if this is true, why not concentrate our betting by wagering very few spots supposedly getting a kind of EV+ by large sums?

Back to the progression.

Bankroll is formed by 224 bets splitted into eight and four multilayered betting levels.
Minimum bet is 1 unit and highest bet is 10 units.

So we can safely join a Vegas HS table by setting up a $2000 minimum bet, knowing at the worst scenario we'll wager $20.000. Bankroll is $448.000.

Actually it's very very rare to wager more than 4x standard units, meaning we'll get yet 24 bets behind (see later).

The progression is able to endure a 43 negative WL gap, meaning we need to meet a 44 L/W gap to lose the entire bankroll.

Naturally vig will erode winning spot amounts, but progressive bets stay low no matter what.

The progression is so solid that most peers stressed us to accelerate it but getting a firm 'no' from our part as we know that s.h.it could happen.

Progression basis concept

If things tend to come out more clustered than isolated and taking into account the root mean square value, we better bet progressively toward winning clusters than isolated clusters at the same time fearing most losing clusters that represent the same opposite side of the medal.
If our effort is restricted to the least when losing and slightly enlarged when winning, we should get an edge as the W and L situations are specular itlr (before vig).

Therefore our scheme is splitted into 10 different bet unit levels (totaling 44 betting spots) by wagering a two-step positive progression. That is after a win we let the entire amount to run for one time more. 

First eight levels stay at 1 unit betting level until a higher than 8 unit loss come out, now we'll step forward a 2 unit bet.

From the 2 unit bet, each level will stay four times instead of eight and so on.

The amount of the actual bet is dictated by the total number of units lost:

from 1 to 8 unit lost = bet 1 unit

from 10 to 16 unit lost = bet  2 units

from 19 to 28 unit lost = bet 3 units

from 32 to 44 unit lost = bet 4 units

from 40 to 64 unit lost = bet 5 units

from 70 to 88 unit lost = bet 6 units

from 95 to 116 unit lost = bet 7 units

from 124 to 148 unit lost = bet 8 units

from 157 to 184 unit lost = bet 9 units

from 194 to 214 unit lost = bet 10 units

There are additional 'rules' we'll see in the second part, the important thing to see is that each every losing bet (regardless of the first or second step result) remains at the same level (and set up by the current total losing unit amount) whereas every winning bet must be always 'parlayed' one time even if we're in the positive or neutral field.

So if we are working at the 1 unit level we'll get:

LL  = -1, -1 = -2
LW = -1, +1 = 0 (before vig)
WL = +1, -2 = -1 (before vig)
WW = +1, +2 = +3 (before vig)

Itlr such totals will be equal so getting us a loss for the vig, but the slow progression betting will make more and more probable the easiest winning situations we are really looking for, that is any WW sequence that tend to neutralize (many times slowly) many previous losing spots.

Acting in this way we are deadly sure to play a perfect symmetrical winning/losing proposition not giving a fk about the urge to break even shortly and at the same time capable to get the best of it when things come in our favor for long (think about a WWWWWWWW sequence getting us a +12 unit profit before vig)

After years of reading gambling forums, you should not find yourselves in the position to be behind 44 bets, it's a kind of impossible task.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on November 19, 2021, 12:46:56 PM
You said:

" It's a sure fact that casinos will make tons of money from baccarat tables as players cannot realize how many bets are placed into the 'negative territory' (almost always by improperly increasing the wagers) and how many bets are placed into the 'positive territory' by low or too low amounts.

The math edge is just a 'booster' for casinos and not the main cause for they are collecting millions from baccarat"

Which a whole lot and I do mean a whole lot of casino patrons have no real clue as to what the real odds or house advantages are at any given table at the time they buy in and begin their play. 

Also, I don't care what at any math nut claims, those numbers do not apply to me because I am only going to play 20 or 30 or 40 hands out of 2 or 3 or even more shoes. 

A second also is, those numbers come from (if done correctly) millions of hands.  Not 25 or 100 or 200 and so on.

So if I sit down and lose my buy in within 20 hands, I did not lose 1.06% on the Banker or whatever's being claimed these days, I lost 100%.  As well, if I lost  I never had a 99% chance to win.  I had a 100% chance to lose.  There, fuel for the math nuts to talk how stupid we are here.

The sad story comes on as patrons choose so often to believe those math nut's numbers.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on November 21, 2021, 04:06:55 AM
Good Job on reply #474 above AsymBacGuy. A lot of solid thoughts/examples. We may have to nominate it for Post-Of-The-Year.
I will comment(and ask a couple Q) in a day or so as it is a lot to digest.

as:

"...It's a sure fact that casinos will make tons of money from baccarat tables as players cannot realize how many bets are placed into the 'negative territory' (almost always by improperly increasing the wagers) and how many bets are placed into the 'positive territory' by low or too low amounts.

The math edge is just a 'booster' for casinos and not the main cause for they are collecting millions from baccarat..."


alrelax:

"...Which a whole lot and I do mean a whole lot of casino patrons have no real clue as to what the real odds or house advantages are at any given table at the time they buy in and begin their play.

"... A second also is, those numbers come from (if done correctly) millions of hands.  Not 25 or 100 or 200 and so on.

So if I sit down and lose my buy in within 20 hands, I did not lose 1.06% on the Banker or whatever's being claimed these days, I lost 100%.  As well, if I lost  I never had a 99% chance to win.  I had a 100% chance to lose.  There, fuel for the math nuts to talk how stupid we are here.
  .."


     Well stated/ I agree 100%.  Variance will always be our number one nemesis (not H.E.)


     Continued Success,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on November 22, 2021, 11:05:53 PM
Thanks a lot for your replies Al and KFB!!

Back to the progression

Say we are splitting our strategic plan into four infinite WL situations by adopting the 1-2 positive limited progression (anytime we win we'll leave the original bet plus the bet won; any bet lost at either two-step stage remains at the same level without any betting increase). For simplicity we do not take into account the vig.
Further progression rules will be posted later.

No matter how concentrated or diluted our wagers are, 4 hands bet can produce just 16 WL situations:

1) WWWW (+1, +2, +1, +2) = +6

2) WWWL (+1, +2, +1, -2) = +2

3) WWLW (+1, +2, -1, +1) = +3

4) WWLL (+1, +2, -1, -1) = +1

5) WLLL (+1, -2, -1, -1) = -3

6) WLLW (+1, -2, -1, +1) = -1

7) WLWW (+1, -2, +1, +2) = +2

8) WLWL (+1, -2, +1, -2) = -2

Specular 'losing' counterparts are:

9) LLLL (-1, -1, -1, -1) = -4

10) LLLW (-1, -1, -1, +1) = -2

11) LLWL (-1, -1, +1, -2) = -3

12) LLWW (-1, -1, +1, +2) = +1

13) LWWW (-1, +1, +2, +1) = +3

14) LWWL (-1, +1, +2, -1) = +1

15) LWLL (-1, +1, -2, -1) = -3

16) LWLW (-1, +1, -2, +1) = -1

Of course the total final amount of hands #1-#8 is +8 and at hands #9-#16 is -8.
For that matter 1-8 hands range provides 5/3 W/L cumulative ratio and the same is oppositely true about 9-16 hands range (5/3 L/W cumulative ratio).

Without a possible bet selection advantage, the probability to get each of those different outcomes is fkng symmetrical but there are some differences even in this perfect balanced scenario:

a) any pattern starting with a W will get an average final total amount of +14 at W spots and an average final total amount of -6 at L spots (+14 - 6 = +8)
On the other end, any pattern starting with a L will get an average final total amount of -13 at L spots and an average final total amount of +5 at W spots (-13 +5 = -8).

b) whenever a specular extreme pattern as WWWW or LLLL comes out (getting the same probability to appear), we'll get different final results, in fact:

WWWW = +6
LLLL = -4

the same about the back to back appearance of those 'extreme' results, so:

WWWW/WWWW = +12

LLLL/LLLL = -8

and so on.

In other words, whenever our first bet of our 4-step wagering 'unlimited' strategy is a W, we'll get 5/3 odds to end up with a final win ranging from +6 to +1 and a final loss ranging from -1 to -3.

Conversely, whenever our first bet is a L, we'll get 5/3 odds to conclude the 4-step wagering with a cumulative loss ranging from -4 to -1 and a final win from +1 to +3.

If we'd symmetrically put the same W/L opposite eight scenarios together, we'll see that cumulatively we are going to get just two situations having a +2 global result, one getting a -1 result and another one getting a -3 result. The remaining four situations are going to get a 'break even' spot.

Hence itlr we know we must face half of the outcomes to be W/L 'balanced' and the rest to be deviated in a way or another.

Back to the WL scenarios getting a transitory strong 'balancement' (temporarily denying a root mean square normal value):

WLLW = -1

WLWL = -2

LWWL = +1

LWLW = -1

WWLL = +1

LLWW = +1

Cumulatively those 'perfect balanced' W/L spots are going to get us a -1 global result perfoming a 6/16 probability to happen (p=0.375).

That means that the remaining part of results (p=0.625) are affected by a kind of normal 'bias' toward either side of the bell curve.
Naturally a perfect independent proposition cannot get us any valuable hint to bet this or that, therefore these assumptions cannot apply at roulette, for example.

But since at baccarat it's highly improbable (say impossible) to arrange key cards proportionally along any shoe dealt and by different paces both being insensitive of the place selection and probability after effects statistical tools (those ones confirming or not the real random nature of the shoe), we know that sooner or later the root mean square value will get its rights to happen.

For that matter I do not know a single long term winning player capable to quit a session as a winner unless he/she is able to catch the spots where W is more followed by another W than by trying to stop a L spot.

Later about the progression topic.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on November 24, 2021, 01:03:47 AM
In essence and no matter the strategy employed, per each shoe dealt we'll get a number of pseudo equlibrium spots and a number of deviations going toward the natural RMS value.
Obviously it's highly preferable to play toward the latter scenario not because we have in mind a kind of 'sky's the limit' attitude but simply as baccarat is a word of multiple asymmetrical propositions.

Adopting a mini positive (multilayered) progression will help us to define if our bets are falling into the 'pseudo equilibrium' territory or a more hopeful mild, moderate or strong deviation.

Naturally if WW is the searched scenario and LL is not that terrible (proportionally speaking), our enemies are isolated Ws and, at a different extent, isolated Ls.

Example.
The succession is WLLLWLLLLWLLLLLLLLWLLL (W/L ratio 4/18)
The RMS value is abundantly passed (3.7-sigma), but we were betting the opposite situations.
Our progression (assuming to stay at the same first level) applied to this sequence is:
+1, -2, -1, -1, +1, -2, -1, -1, -1, +1, -2, -1, -1, -1, -1, -1, -1, -1, +1, -2, -1, -1. total = -18 units (plus vig).

The specular natural counterpart is LWWWLWWWWLWWWWWWWWLWWW (W/L ratio 18/4)
Now we'll get: -1, +1, +2, +1, -2, +1, +2, +1, +2, -1, +1, +2, +1, +2, +1, +2, +1, +2, -1, +1, +2, +1.
total = + 21 units (minus vig)

It's evident that this 22-hand succession from a statistical point of view is perfectly balanced but from an economic point of view is asymmetrical to our favor.

Someone could argue that in the first heavy losing sequence we might wait for a W to come out before betting without immolating money on those long L series (so losing less than 18 units). And the same about the second sequence by betting more than a mechanical 1-2 progression on that strong winning succession (so winning more than 21 units).
But this kind of reasonment is failed by an obvious post hoc thought.
Winning and losing both belong to the same process, we know sooner or later things will take a more natural flow but we do not know when (partial imperfect information) and how much (true imperfect information).

Of course a steady pseudo equilibrium status will more likely elicit a deviation of some kind, after all the original succession could be splitted into infinite ways where the equilibrium is the exception and the deviation is the rule.

Progression steps

Our initial betting unit is 1 (there are reasons to set up this initial bet at 5, we'll talk about this issue in the future).
We'll always parlay a first win just one time forever and ever, no matter whether we win the first step (WL) or the second step (WW) our bet will be 1 until a deficit of 8 units will be reached.
If we are in the positive territory we'll stop the betting until the RMS value is reached, waiting if the RMS value is erased then starting to bet again.
We'll bet 1 unit whenever our losing amount is included into the 1-8 units range.

When we are behind of 8 units we'll pass to the 2nd betting level made of four stages, that is betting 2 units with the same parlay rules.
We stay at this 2 level if our deficit is reduced to 7 units, now we take back the first 1 unit betting level step.

If our deficit raises to 16 units, we'll start to bet 3 units made of four steps, again with the same parlay rules.
If we are able to come back at a 14 unit deficit we'll go back to the second step (that is betting a 2 unit); if we're unfortunate to further increase our loss (28 unit loss) we'll step forward the 4-unit level (again made of four steps) and so on by increasing one unit for four times long up to the final 10-unit betting level. Up to the point where we'll get one unit profit.

Step one and two follow the same rules, but next step levels (3,4,5,6,7,8,9 and 10) must stay at the same level after a parlay win.
After two consecutive parlay wins made at levels 3-10, we'll go back to the immediate inferior betting level; for example after having won two times a parlay bet of 4 (4+8 and 4+8 = 24 units) we'll step back to 3 level.

I'll provide a scheme about what to do in relation of the actual deficit, but it's quite simple to understand that to go back to the inferior betting level we need to end up as winners at a given betting level.

Technically this progression 'challenges' the results not to give at least a RMS value for long and, frankly, this situation it's almost impossible to happen even if we're voluntarily playing to lose.

But let's falsify such hypothesis by setting up a strategy oriented to get more pseudo equilibrium spots than deviated spots those ones reaching at some time a normal natural deviation. The progression utilized remains the same.
In other words we're hoping that WL and LW spots are more likely to happen than WW or LL spots.
A paraphrase of D'Alambert progression that was proven to be a sure recipe for disaster.

Instead of 4-hand propositions let's take just 3-hand ways to consider outcomes:

WWW = +1, +2, +1 (+4)
WWL = +1, +2, -1  (+2)
WLW = +1, -2, +1  (0)
WLL = +1, -2, -1  (-2)

LLL = -1, -1, -1  (-3)
LLW = -1, -1, +1 (-1)
LWL = -1, +1, -2  (-2)
LWW = -1, +1, +2 (+2)

In eight 3-hand attempts, odds to break even are 1:8.
In eight 3-hand attempts, odds dictate that the maximum win (1:8) is +4 and the maximum loss (1:8) is -3.
In eight 3-hand attempts, half of the time we'll get either 2 units won or 2 units loss.

Just in one scenario we'll be behind of 1 unit.

Therefore we know that after three hands played, our bankroll movement is 6:2 favorite to get either an increase or a decrease superior than 1.
Not a good thing to know when applying a kind of constant 'balancement' play.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on November 24, 2021, 01:32:54 AM
Here the progression scheme

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: klw on November 24, 2021, 11:08:29 AM
AsymBacGuy -- Really interesting thread and I appreciate all the information and time taken to pass this all on to us.

Cheers.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on November 25, 2021, 12:07:53 AM
Thanks klw! I appreciate your words and the time you spend here reading my section!

Imo at baccarat there's no such a thing as quitting when ahead or behind, setting up a goal (in either W or L way) or stuff like that.
Our plan must get an edge in the long term by assessing the game features both in theory and, more importantly, in practice.

I can't give a lesser damn whether we're (temporarily) behind after playing 3 or 4 shoes, such thing happens, albeit rarely (it doesn't happen to those forums' geniuses claiming that they win multiple units at every shoe dealt).

Each W/L pattern will come out with the same probability, so we should focus our attention about their distribution shoe per shoe. Not every shoe is featuring exploitable situations, as everything depends about how symmetrically or asymmetrically are placed the cards at every shoe dealt.
It's true that many results come from 'whimsical' spots, but those will show up with the same profitable or unprofitable probability: after all what it's math advantaged remains advantaged.

Best example to make is by assessing the 1-2 (or 2-1) and 1-3 (or 3-1) BP flows coming out at a given shoe (unb plan #1).
There are strong reasons why we had discarded 2-3 spots from our play as they act accordingly to the statistical tools already touched here.

Most of the times such situations tend to come out clustered in a way or another and this is not mainly caused by the 0.75 probability to happen.
Not given precise values are going to get a steady advantage (unless our progression is utilized) as this edge depends about how symmetrically or asymmetrically are placed the cards on the actual shoe we're playing at.
In addition and even though we have assigned them the same 3+ value for simplicity, not all 3+ streaks are equal either in quantity and in quality.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on November 26, 2021, 12:57:47 AM
Look at this shoe (1=singles, 2=doubles and 3=3+ streaks)

br: 2,1,1,2,1,1,3,3,1,2,3,1,3,3,2,3,2,3,2,2,2,1,1,3,1,2,2,2,2,2,3,1,1,3,2,1,1

ubp #1: W,W,W,W,L,W,W,L,L,W,W,L,W,L,W,L,W,W,W,W,L,L,W.  w=15, (+15) AND L=8 (-24)

byb: 1,3,1,1,1,1,3,3,1,3,3,1,2,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,2,1,1,3,1,1,1,1,3,3,3,1,1,2,1,1,2

ubp #1: w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,l,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,l,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,l,w,w,w.

w= 35 (+35) l= 3 (-9)

sr: 3,1,2,1,2,1,2,1,2,1,2,2,1,1,1,1,2,2,3,1,3,1,2,3,1,1,2,3,3,3,2,3

ubp #1: l,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,l,w,w,l,l,w,l,l.   w=18 (+18) l= 6 (-18)

cr: 3,3,1,1,2,1,3,1,3,1,3,2,3,1,1,1,1,2,1,1,3,3,1,2,1,2,1,3,3,3,2,3,1

ubp #1: w,l,w,l,w,w,w,w,l,w,w,w,l,w,w,l,w,w,l,w,w,w,l,w,w,w,l.  w=19 (+19)  l=8 (-24)

Say we are a team formed by 4 persons (each betting ubp#1 at one of the four roads).
For simplicity we ignore the vig.

At the end of the shoe:

br player loses 9 units = -9

byb player wins 26 units = +26

sr player breaks even = 0

cr player loses 5 units = -5

In total our team won 26-14 units, that is a +12 profit (before vig).

There are one million of post hoc considerations to be made, say we're just focusing about the W isolated spots (IS) and W clusters (CL).

br:  CL, CL, CL, IS, IS, CL

byb: CL, CL, CL, CL

sr: CL, CL, IS

cr: IS, IS, CL, CL, CL, CL, CL, CL.

In total 16 W Clusters and 5 Isolated Ws.

Now the reverse situation about losses, that is the number of L isolated spots and L clusters.

br: IS, CL, IS, IS, IS, CL

byb: IS, IS, IS

sr: IS, IS, CL, CL

cr: IS, IS, IS, IS, IS, IS, IS.

In total 16 Isolated L spots and 4 L clusters.

If our team would like to bet toward W clusters and L isolated spots we'll get 16+16 winning spots (+32) and (5+4) losing spots (-27). That is a +5 unit profit (minus vig)

Notice that the original 'full betting' plan produced two losing players (br and cr players), one breaking even (sr player) and one strong winner (byb player).

The clustered/isolated sub plan formed br player losing 4 units, byb player winning 7 units, sr player losing 5 units and cr player winning 7 units. That is a cumulative +5 unit profit.

Globally the player who contributed most to our team was byb player, cr player won slightly, sr lost 5 units and br got a tremendous -13 unit loss.

Let's take another shoe.

br: 1,3,2,3,1,1,2,1,3,1,1,3,2,1,1,1,1,1,3,2,1,2,1,2,1,3,1,1,1,3,1,3

ubp#1: L,W,L,W,L,W,W,W,L,W,W,W,W,L,L,W,W,W,W,L,W,W,W,W,W,W   W=19 (+19)  L=7 (-21)

byb: 1,3,1,1,1,1,3,1,3,3,2,1,1,1,1,1,2,3,1,3,1,1,3,3,2,2,1,2,3

ubp#1: w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,l,w,w,w,w,w,l,w,w,w,w,w,l,w,l.   w=19  (+19)  l=4 (-12) 

sr: 2,2,3,2,1,3,1,1,2,1,3,3,1,3,3,3,1,3,1,1,1,1,1,2,1,3.

ubp#1: l,w,w,l,w,l,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,l,w,l  w=15 (+15)  l=4 (-12)

cr: 1,1,3,1,1,1,1,3,2,3,3,1,2,2,1,3,3,2,3,3,2,1,2,2,1,1,1

ubp#1: w,w,w,w,w,l,l,w,w,l,w,l,w,w,w,w,w.   w=13  (+13)  l=4 (4 (-12)

So let's see if our team survived this shoe and who contributed most to save the joint:

br player kept losing (we should discard him/her from the team as being too unlucky  ^-^) : -2 units

byb player won 7 units (+7)

sr player won 3 units (+3)

cr player won 1 unit (+1)

Overall our team won 9 units (before vig).

Let's see again the sub IS/CL plan, first in W then in L spots (reversely taken of course).

Wins:

br player: IS, IS, CL, CL, CL, CL

byb player: Cl, CL, CL, IS

sr player: CL, IS, CL, IS

cr player: CL, CL, IS, CL

Losses:

br player: IS, IS, IS, IS, CL, IS

byb player: IS, IS, IS

sr player: IS, IS, IS, IS

cr player: CL, IS, IS

Globally we got 26 wins (12+14) and 8 losses (6+2) that is a +26 - 24 = +2 unit profit (before vig)

In this second shoe original plan made three winners and just one loser whereas the sub plan made two breaking even players, one winning 3 units and one losing 1 unit.

Some comments.

It's evident that in those two shoes the first (original) plan got us more gross profits than the sub plan (+21 vs +7).
Quite interesting is the fact that sub plan got 1/3 of the original plan profits.

Anyway we shouldn't forget the vig burden, especially if we have to play a kind of mini progression.

Moreover variance is always around the corner and it's not that easy to set up a plan like this.
I mean that many situations might easily dictate to bet opposite sides to get a given searched result and the trick, already investigated, to wait for multiple roads to converge toward an expected spot has shown to be of no value.
Naturally 'conflicting' bettable sides are less likely to happen when adopting the sub plan proposed here.

Another possible trick that may come to mind is to select the player seemingly performing best, abandoning (at least for some betting spots) the losing or 'limping' players.
But this is an equivalent move as adopting a simple trend following strategy: we do not know when to enter and when to quit, maybe jumping from one player to another without a statistical reason to do that.

Finally, yes, some shoes are unplayable as they do not give the proper room to get a fair amount of pattern situations. Among the worst shoes to play our strategies at there are those producing a lot of ties, so when we suspect the actual shoe will be 'tie' rich we'll simply stand up or starting to bet them.  ^-^

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: klw on November 27, 2021, 01:10:31 AM
Wow !

Great Post AsymBacGuy.

Enough homework for a long time.

Cheers.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on November 27, 2021, 08:57:17 AM
Thanks klw!!!
Yes...a lot of stuff.....

Take care!

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 12, 2021, 06:21:16 PM
Shortly  I'll provide some numbers, without them we're not going anywhere.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on December 13, 2021, 05:21:01 PM
AsymBacGuy: ..."...Finally, yes, some shoes are unplayable as they do not give the proper room to get a fair amount of pattern situations. Among the worst shoes to play our strategies at there are those producing a lot of ties, so when we suspect the actual shoe will be 'tie' rich we'll simply stand up or starting to bet them.    ..."

     LIKE BUTTON  :nod:
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on December 13, 2021, 06:18:43 PM
Had one the other night.  Just about all singles, doubles and triples.  Then two bankers streaks of a 9 and a 7 bankers.  Just about everyone was wagering heavy each and every time on the players side. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 21, 2021, 11:27:27 PM
To better understand how things work at baccarat let's say we set up three different players wagering (fictionally) for us: we simply register their results in term of Ws and Ls distribution. Shoe per shoe.

Player A will bet toward getting positive clusters (trend following, long streaks or long chops, my plans, AD, Banker wagering in possible profitable situations, etc)

Player B thinks player A is an id.iot and takes the right opposite route, that is betting that valuable patterns do not come out or that will break soon or toward short streaks, weak B distribution, my plans are sh.i.t, I like doubles, etc)

Player C (the passive one) takes a middle route by alternatively wagering that player A or B will respectively get very short winning or losing sequences set up at 1 level (chopping level). That is he bets that A and B will get more long WL chopping sequences than a proprotional amount of losing W or L streaks.

Obviously it's virtually impossible that at the end of each shoe all three players will be losers as a perfect balancement world is out of order (see later).
Maybe the negative EV will get a role on that, but it's not the main cause why casinos take a lot of money from bac players.

Nonetheless, the general probability to get player C as final winner is diminished as a perfect hopping mood between players A and B  is slight less likely to happen, otherwise a simple multilayered martingale applied to him would get easy and endless series of winnings (giving a fk about normal variance).
Anyway, even player C is entitled to get his share of wins and, guess what, they must come out clustered at some point. And naturally the losing counterpart (forming Pl A or Pl B clusters) must come out clustered too.

In this way no one single shoe is unplayable as something profitably clustered MUST come out at various degrees of quantity and quality (distribution).
It's important to understand that a 'cluster' is just a back to back scenario so WW or LL belongs to the same cluster category as a WWWWWWW or LLLLL situation.
And by the same way of thought any xWL or xLW spot is an isolated (chop) mood.

Fortunately for us at baccarat clustered events of different nature will prevail over isolated spots.
Tomorrow I'll provide some examples about it. 

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 22, 2021, 01:48:30 AM
Btw, there's a reason why a 'clustered' plan of action (at either W or L way) is more suitable than an 'isolated' one.
Whenever we're betting toward a given flow, odds that this flow will stop are inferior than odds that the flow will prolong.

For example, we'll surely face a shoe showing up 7 or 8 or more consecutive doubles (singles ignored) than a shoe producing 7 or 8 or more isolated double spots (that is gapped each time by a 3+ streak).

Anytime you won't get a feeling about what side to bet, consider Player C situation.
He is favorite to get more long losing spots than long winning spots as most of the times the BP texture won't get a WL hopping situation for long or not proportionally placed.

That means that in the majority of the times you are either destined to consecutively win or consecutively lose, giving the best of your fk about math percentages of being WL or LW balanced.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 26, 2021, 01:29:25 AM
Baccarat is a game producing constant clustered events in either way as the shoe distribution is affected by a huge degree of concentrated/diluted card factor.
Many times such clusters will act in the form of 'easy detectable' patterns, others are not.

The easiest detectable clustered forms come out from either long B or P (or r/b) streaks or long chops, then other 'next level' situations come around depending upon how many times we would want to challenge an 'isolated' form to show up.
After all even series of isolated spots constitute a cluster.

Since we have no valid reasons to think that every single shoe we're playing at is really randomly shuffled, we must be forced to consider every shoe as a single entity.

For example, the natural B propensity could go down in the toilet as well as the more likely predominance of P side to get long singles and doubles sequences.

Consider the most basic plan of all: singles and streaks.

Most of the times, sections full of clustered singles deny the probability to get streaks and vice versa.
Each clustered events will get a value different from zero unless a single-streak or streak-single situation o ccurs.
This last scenario could easily come out when sequences as BPPBPPPBPPBPPP or BBBBPBBPBBBBPBB show up. But even now we consider it as a cluster.
Notice that whenever a cluster of this last kind happens, the unfavorite side will get only singles otherwise we'll get a streak cluster ending up this clustered particular event.

Now say that we'll mechanically registering how many singles and streaks will come out assigning them a value:

0= single followed by a streak or streak followed by a single, zero clusters on either side;

1= two singles in a row or two streaks in a row

2= three singles in a row or three streaks in a row

3= four or more singles in a row or four or more streaks in a row

At the same time the single-streak or streak-single situation getting a 0 value at the above classification will get different values in relationship of how many back-to-back spots happened:

one 0 = just one single-streak or streak.single situation followed by a same single or streak cluster.

two 0= two single-streak-single or streak-single-streak situations followed by a same single/streak cluster

three 0=three or more single-streak-single-streak or streak-single-streak-single situations followed b a same single/streak cluster.

Example:
the shoe is:

P
B
PP
B
P
B
P
BBB
P
BBBB
P
BB
P
BBBB
PP
B
PP
B
P
BB
P
BB
PP
BBBBBB
PPP
B
P
B
P
B
PPP
B
PP
BBBB
PP
B
P
B
P
BB

Now in numbers the shoe looks like as:

1-0-3-0-0-0-0-0-0-1-0-0-1-0-0-3-3-0-2-3

Since we cannot have numbers different from 0,1,2 or 3 we could have a better picture of what the shoe is really producing.

In this shoe we got a higher than expected single-streak or vice versa spots ('0' values), anyway notice how short went '2' situations and cumulatively how many 0 and 1 situations happened versus superior numbers.
Moroever note the final portion of the shoe formed by a kind of 'concentrated' numbers different from zero.

Anyway we're restricting the field of operation by two tools: any streak is a streak no matter what, and the number 3 incorporates the more likely events after setting up a cutoff at four.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 26, 2021, 02:05:22 AM
Another shoe (not displayed for simplicity):

0-0-0-1-3-1-0-1-1-1-1-1-0-1-2-0-0-0-1-(1)

Same amounts of situations of the previous shoe (that is 20, even if the last one is undefinied so far)
Notice that even in this shoe 2s went 'silent' and the shortage of 3s.

Next shoe is:

0-2-3-0-0-2-0-2-1-0-2-1-2-2-0-1

16 situations, more 2s than previous shoes, fewer 0s and 1s, just one 3.

Obviously there will be some (rare) shoes looking as 3-3-3-3-2-0-3-3-3-2-3-0-1-3-3 where we either want to stay away or to bet that something will be silent for long.

After all we can't get a 0 or 1 probability after effects value after a 3 and neither after a 2.

as.   





Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 26, 2021, 10:55:58 PM
Obviously there will be some (rare) shoes looking as 3-3-3-3-2-0-3-3-3-2-3-0-1-3-3

Really?

Actually this shoe transformed in numbers will be almost impossible to happen as too many hands are needed for surpassing the number of playable cards (even if all or most streaks are just doubles and singles stopping at four, we must discard from the registration the tie hands and cards burnt at the beginning and at the end of the shoe.

It's like we are applying a code to each shoe dealt. A kind of 'gathering factor' to any hand succession not getting precise qualities as 0,1,2 are the same in quantity but different in quality depending on what event happened and naturally 3 concentrates many high clustered events belonging to the same category.

We have many strategical options to act about these 'codes'.

For example, we could evaluate how many ascending, descending or same value steps will come out at the same position or back-to-back positions shoe per shoe. Will some numbers be more likely to appear after certain other numbers at the actual shoe?

Within a shoe could a 0 value comes out always isolated (if any) or it should show up clustered at some point of it?
What about other numbers?

Is a same source of outcomes (same deck shuffled) a real important feature to possibly exploit those codes?

Every baccarat player knows that things may stay univocal sometimes but even may change rapidly in a way or another, that's why imo we better concentrate at most our field of operations.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on December 27, 2021, 04:26:53 AM
Reference the following four statements from the above post, caused me to post the following I had within my section.

Those four statements were:

" For example, we could evaluate how many ascending, descending or same value steps will come out at the same position or back-to-back positions shoe per shoe. Will some numbers be more likely to appear after certain other numbers at the actual shoe?

Within a shoe could a 0 value comes out always isolated (if any) or it should show up clustered at some point of it?
What about other numbers?

Is a same source of outcomes (same deck shuffled) a real important feature to possibly exploit those codes?

Every baccarat player knows that things may stay univocal sometimes but even may change rapidly in a way or another, that's why imo we better concentrate at most our field of operations."


Let me make it clear and state it right away.  Practical Knowledge is superior to theoretical gambling knowledge and as well, Practical Knowledge is incredibly important to any career and life in general.  Whether gambling, a non-related gambling career as well as life in general, all three of them, cannot and will not excel in Theoretical Knowledge only. 

With that said.  When it comes to the knowledge we all possess, use, govern ourselves, base decisions on and everything else related to those, there are different kinds and different ways.  On one side there is the theory way and on the other side, there is the practical application of that same side of theory.  There are distinct sides to each one, don't become confused with the oversimplification of the way so many attempt to streamline theoretical and reduce it to scheduled and reoccurring events.  That is salesmanship and intelligence modification that many fall prey to and become convinced of fallacy, lies, twisted truths, manipulated wishes, etc. 

But there is a theoretical side to gambling and baccarat play that used in the correct context can certainly add ammunition and tool box knowledge to the holder.  Such as, 'why' things happen, 'how come' things happened, and countless techniques that could succeed or likewise, might very well fail.  But no theory and I stress, not a single one, can succeed over and over with continuous redundancy the way so many seek, attempt to sell or wish for.  That is the key to understand reality with this subject.

So what is theoretical knowledge good for?  IMO, it is good for building your context of all the subject involved within gambling as well as baccarat.  You should have the context in order to set you strategy or at least know, where and how to proceed within the game when you are involved in it.  You can use theory to accomplish that, learning from the experience, trails, efforts, writings of others mixed with your own interpretation of those into some kind of viable fuel that you can implement. 

If the theoretical end of it all leads you to a deeper and more thorough understanding as to the 'why' behind it all, then you are well on a great path to better success than the uninformed person would be. 

Now, the Practical Knowledge, is the tougher one.  The practical end of baccarat play has to come from the actual gambling itself.  There is no two ways about it.  You will gain the specific techniques that will become, for simplicity sake here, your tools of the trade.  Keep separate but conscious of, theory being the ideal end of it and/or the reasoning behind it all.  The practical end of it, being the outcome and the actual varying events without restriction or guidance to the theory end of it all.  Do not fall prey to the biggest common mistake by most gamblers, which is convincing yourself that the theory end of it has to happen in any certain order or timing.

Both are extremely important, but without each other, you won't survive.  Theory cannot always be present and theory might continually present itself in different and varying ways.  That is where your practical knowledge will take over and apply a more specific solution or decision to what you are faced with in the game of baccarat.  It is a game, it is not a puzzle to be solved, and there are not definitive solutions. 

You have to mix the theoretical side of it with the practical side of the same thing.  The goal you need to focus on, is getting both ends of the spectrum to meet the majority of the times.   
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 03, 2022, 12:14:55 AM
You have to mix the theoretical side of it with the practical side of the same thing.  The goal you need to focus on, is getting both ends of the spectrum to meet the majority of the times.   

Yep.

That's why this game is so difficult to beat: most people try to be too 'theoretical' or too 'practical'.
More often than not theorists will get the best of it on long terms, practicals will get the best of it on short terms. Since it's not that easy to split 'long term' with 'short term' both will lose more often than not.

Even casinos collect their profits or (temporary) losses by this assumption/evidence:

"in theory we must win all the money a player will risk at the table, providing he/she will bet a lot of hands"

"in practice we (casinos) must hope shoes won't provide easy detectable patterns where high rollers playing a relative low amount of hands will bet at"

In essence, things will change whenever an appropriate amount of time is involved, playing each hand or many hands tend to restrict the time interval.

More importantly, some BS are more sensitive to what happened at the last shoe or last shoes, it's here that a possible player's edge comes out.

Let's consider the bac 'codes' I was talking about above.
Any number will be followed by another number (same, superior or inferior number), of course some numbers will be more likely than others.
I guess a 0-0 situation will be more likely than a 0-3 or 0-2 situation but any 0 will fight by an even 'supposed' probability against any number different from 0.
Moreover as long as a given number won't appear, we can't estimate a back-to-back number registration.

It could happen that at a given shoe a given number won't appear with different general degrees of probability.

Naturally 0 fights against any number different from 0 (1,2 or 3), 1 against any number different from 0 or 2 and 3 (a >1 and <1 category), 2 against 0,1 and 3 and finally 3 against 0,1,2).

Mathematically we'll get a 50/50 general probability to win if we play toward a 0 vs the remaining situations,
12.5% of winning probability to get a precise 1, 2 or 3 scenarios.

Naturally if we'd bet toward a higher than 0 scenario we'll confide about any of the 1, 2 or 3 possibilites and vice versa.

The number 1 appearance needs to get rid of the 0 situation first, then to stop right before getting 2 or 3 spots (0.75 winning probability)

The number 2 and number 3 situations are the most intricated to assess as they must shift three different steps each (0,1 and 3 for 2 patterns and 0,1 and 2 for 3 patterns). That is a 12.5% probability to get a back-to-back spot.
Obviously a sky's the limit progressive plan (or, better sayed, a multilayered progression plan) will get the best of it by wagering isolated 2s and/or 3s vs clustered same 2s or 3s spots.

It's quite interesting to see that 0/1 vs 2/3 and vice versa plans will get standard deviation values quite different than general probabilities depending upon what initial-intermediate actual results had come out along.

In addition, notice how many times a same back to back same number spot sequence happens at the next shoe played.

Statistical or mathematical bighorn.stuff?

Of course, do not disturb the fkng math gurus....

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 05, 2022, 12:23:42 AM
Fictional betting

Is there any real value to make a fictional betting plan before making actual wagers on the felt?

Mathematically there isn't. At least if we don't attack side bets vulnerable from card counting, but in this case we can't speak of 'fictional betting'. We simply bet when the circumstances are math favourable for us.

On the other end, those very rare players making a living at this game know that the only way to win itlr is by betting very few hands.
Therefore a 'fictional plan' must get a decisive role in that.

The foremost gambling expert who deeply investigated fictional betting one century ago was Marigny de Grilleau in his voluminous book called 'Le gain scientifique d'une seule unité'.
Basically his theory (applied at roulette) was to wait until a EC gets a 3 sigma or higher deviation before betting then hoping by a strict flat betting that the 'silent' chance will come out more clustered than isolated.
To raise the probability of success he decided to win just one big unit for every profitable arising spot, then waiting for another opportunity.
Actually and to avoid the long situations not fitting the 3 or above sigma triggers, he also claimed other weird theories not working at all at baccarat (even less at roulette).
Despite his huge contribute to gambling, he died pennyless mostly as roulette is a endless proposition of independent outcomes.

Nevertheless his work was very important especially when we take a 'dependent' and 'asymmetrical' game as baccarat.

When things remain steady and when things are supposed to change

Most baccarat players approach baccarat by hoping that things remain restricted in detectable patterns, of course a steady pattern (whatever considered) is any sequence higher than 1, that is the pattern managed to go beyond 0 point by one or more steps. Those players hope that after 1 or 2 positive steps the pattern will go toward higher numbers.
At the same time there is a 'counter pattern' that is the right opposite situation fighting the above pattern extension.

So baccarat results are limited by infinite patterns' steps starting at 0 and going toward certain values dependent upon the general probability we wish to utilize.

If things would remain steady for long (patterns will reach huge numbers and counter patterns remain at 0), a wise recreational player would collect a lot of money.

On the other end, if things keep patterns to stay around the 0, 1 or 2 levels for long, a progressive plan would get the best of it by any means unless an improper strategy will dictate to chase counter patterns beyond high numbers (3 or higher, for example). Even the player wanting to utilize this plan will collect a lof of money. 

Baccarat is a mix of those two opposite situations.

But there's an important feature to be aware of: any shoe is a world apart, only back-to-back shoes may entice the 'things will change' formation at the same time endorsing the probability to get the 'longest' steady patterns.

The fantastic baccarat feature is that itlr some ascending, descending or equal numbers are more likely than the opposite counterparts by values not fitting their general probability to happen.
In the sense that some numbers' classes are more likely to happen after certain other numbers, as sky's the limit just for casinos and not for us.

The best baccarat player in the world is the one who takes full advantage of both 'steady' and 'changing' situations, knowing the most likely values that could happen at a given series of shoes dealt.
In that sense fictional plans are working just by defining the possible extension or stopping patterns' triggers.
Notice that a 'steady' pattern could prolong for long one or two times per shoe but stopping patterns are more likely to happen.

Practical hints

My unb plan #1 works wonderfully whenever shoes provide a quite number and/or a lot of singles, the backup plan to wager toward doubles and triples in some spots will act toward a general probability of success. In the sense that WW or LW or LLW will be slightly more likely to happen than WL, LL or LLL spots.

Now let's take into account the single/streak distribution.

Everyone reading these pages and willing to test his/her shoes has probably noticed that the more shoes are tested, higher will be the probability to get some numbers more likely than others.
It's like that the average card distribution will take univocal long term lines in terms of quantity and, especially, in quality.

oOoOo

Since the fkng 2+2=4 forum math clowns will think baccarat scholars as pure id.i.ots (actually and fortunately for us they are right), let's provide a sure indeniable baccarat math edge working at those fashioned 'Tiger' or 'Lucky six' tables spread everywhere and raising the Banker negative edge from 1.06% to 1.46%.
We mean those 'no-commission' tables where a winning Banker by a 6 point will be payed 1:2.

The 'Tiger' side bet is payed 12:1 or 20:1 depending upon how many cards Banker needs to win by a 6 point (two cards= 12:1, three cards= 20:1).

At a normal 'burnt cards' 8 deck shoe we'll get five 'Tiger' occasions.

Naturally cards that are more likely denying a Tiger winning bet are 7s, 8s and 9s.
And of course 6s are of paramount importance.
Assign a 2.2 positive value to any 7, 8 or 9 card dealt and a -3 negative value at any 6 dealt.
Anytime you'll get a positive count equal or higher than 3.5 bet the 'Tiger' side bet.
You'll win a lot of money and by multilayered progressive betting under favourable situations you'll reach the sky.

Words of caution:

- pretend to casually look at this side bet at live tables;

- do not forget to tip the dealers after a win;

- look at how many cards are burnt at the initial portion of the shoe; we have seen that if the first card exposed is a card included within the 0-5 range, more final cards are cut off from the play.

- avoid at all costs a CSM baccarat table for obvious reasons (this thing should be natural no matter what, Venetian Stadium in LV is an example)

Notice that despite the math negative edge, Tiger bet is a wonderful opportunity to amplify the Banker advantage in a way or another.
It's well more likely than F-7 bet, especially if you have reasons to think that Player side will draw at the next hand.

In some way and card counting the Tiger bet aside, whenever we have reasons to think that on the next hand Player will draw more often than not, we'll get three ways to win when betting B side with a Tiger bet wager:

- Banker gets an asymmetrical math advantage (EV+);

- Banker will get a symmetrical spot superior point (neutral EV);

- Banker will win by a 6 point with two (12:1) or three cards (20:1). Astounding EV+.

More on that next time.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 05, 2022, 01:20:30 AM
BTW, notice that even a fkng math unsound betting plan will get the best of it by progressively betting the Tiger bet.

When B side wins it's because a portion of symmetrical favourable hands go toward this side, but asymmetrical hands that cannot consider a 6 initial point will mathematically go toward Banker side itlr.
Add to this class those 6 initial B situations being more favorite to win.

In essence, a Banker bet working along with a Tiger side bet will lose itlr just when Player gets:

- an initial 6, 7, 8 or 9 initial two-card point (not always of course);

- a powerful third Player card not fitting the asym hand requisites;

- a symmetrical draw-draw spot favoring P side but here we're playing a 0 negative edge (besides the Tiger bet that will lose more often than not)

I mean that as long as we're not falling into a P standing point, a progressive Banker bet along with a Tiger progressive side bet will get a sure long term EV+.
This will take care even of the ties appearance making a loss at Tiger bets but a push at B bets.

When Tiger bets tend to rarely come out, Banker side will be strongly favorite to win as the math asym power will get the best of it itlr.
Conversely, a shoe particularly rich of Tiger spots will get the best of it by winning Tiger side bets being payed 12:1 or 20:1.

In a way or another when we're betting Banker with a Tiger bet and as long as Player draws, we're kind of freerolling.

Think that the probability to get zero Tiger bets is almost not existent at any shoe dealt.
In the meanwhile we'll get the best of it by wagering a math favorite side (Banker).
Cards are arranged not getting a proper amount of Tiger bets? Good, we're playing an advantaged proposition.

Now a multilayered progressive plan can't lose itlr as we have depicted reasons why it should work.

Test your shoes after having registered the Tiger bets average distribution.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 05, 2022, 02:37:02 AM
Assign a 2.2 positive value to any 7, 8 or 9 card dealt and a -3 negative value at any 6 dealt.

Actually and of course it's a +1.2 (not 2.2) value for 7-8-9s and a -3.6 negative value for 6s.

as. 

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: klw on January 05, 2022, 10:06:18 AM
Thank you once again A.S.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 05, 2022, 07:15:47 PM
U r welcome klw!

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 11, 2022, 12:53:44 AM
Bringing down the house

Differently to what Ben Mezrich wrote on his two bestseller gambling books, it's not black jack the game to 'bring down the house' of but baccarat could.
Baccarat is the only game in the world where a given event or series of events within a relatively restricted results' sample MUST happen no matter what.
It's just a matter of time.

Whenever time is consumed improperly, the math edge cannot go elsewhere than toward casino's pockets as things tend to remain undepicted for the vast majority of occasions we'll be forced to face.

Actually baccarat pros have raised the attitude to properly consider 'time' as the main factor to deal with.

So anytime we have managed to build a bet selection capable to roam around the 0 point without getting huge fluctuations toward a way or another, we'll get the recipe to bring down the house.
Say this is the decisive 'winning random walk' that, of course, must win itlr by flat betting.
Now a strong multilayered progression cannot get but constant progressive accelerated and endless winnings.

At baccarat we can bet $20.000 (or more if a multiple players team is involved) out of blue without having to previously bet a single hand.
Now it's the casino to 'fear' our bet/s, hoping that that hand will go toward their favor.
As long as we do not make a lot of consecutive bets (without a reason and this, more often than not, will be denied by statistical issues), the situation happens again whenever we'll place another huge bet. Or a limited series of progressive bets.

Mathematically speaking, there's no value to bet X or Y by a 10, 20 or more hands pace than by wagering a 0 pace (betting every hand or almost every hand), but statistically there is.
Of course the negative math impact will raise proportionally with the number of hands wagered. So, in a basic way of thought, less hands wagered = less negative global impact.

But what is really important is that the probabilities to get X or Y will change as long as any shoe is dealt and as long a series of shoes are dealt. Especially whether a general probability is raised beyond 0.5.
Otherwise baccarat tables wouldn't be offered.

Say we have found a BS capable to get many spots roaming around the 0 point without suffering huge deviations from that 0 spot (of course according to the general probability we've decided to apply).
Naturally this plan cannot belong to any B>P general strategy as it's easy to find several (say hundreds) shoes in a row getting P>B results. The same about other simple general BP patterns.
For that matter it's virtually impossible to get long term winnings by hoping that B>P or that BBB>BB and so on.

This 'roaming around 0' random walk must be assessed by isolated and clustered classes. After a value is surpassed, we're not interested anymore to look for outcomes unless belonging to an 'isolated' or 'clustered' class.

Our EV is in direct relationship about how many times we got 'more likely' clustered events than 'isolated' events, knowing that itlr this value is slight more oriented toward the clustered side. In a way or another, but always depending about the general probability we want to classify.

Take the last classification I've illustrated above.

Itlr, consecutive successions of univocal patterns (singles or streaks) are more likely to come out by precise numbers, for example if you'd progressively wager toward not getting any 3-3 sequence (for example) you'll get a sure statistical advantage no matter how the fkng math will dictate.

More specifically, you could put in action a mechanical multilayered progressive plan wagering at all four roads (BR, byb, sr and cr) that after any 3+ outcome happening at every road, the next more likely outcome (surpassing the general probability value to happen) will be a number different than 3+.

Yep, any 3 value now must fight against three steps (0, 1 and 2) but show me how many shoes will produce back o back 3+ simultaneous spots at each derived road considered.

For that matter we could even take the luxury to consider 3-2 spots as losing spots, nothing will substantially change.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 13, 2022, 01:31:58 AM
Differently to 'simple' B/P or b/r results, numbers will be more equally distributed (lower sd values) along the shoes dealt as card distributions will make less volatile outcomes when taken as 'groups'.

Naturally each card distribution will make some numbers slight more likely to happen and it's quite easy to see what those numbers are.
Hence to exploit this property we should split the entire picture into smaller pieces getting each a probability different than the general probability values as card distributions provide more whimsical results if singularly taken (single hands) than 'clustered' considered (groups of hands).

So, for example, after a 0 there are numbers more likely to happen as the average card distribution will make those numbers (situations) more probable to show up.
In simple words, some back-to-back situations belonging to some numbers category will come out by longer clusters than at the opposite counterparts.

General probability dictates A=B but actually A>B and so on (i.e., A+B>C instead of A+B=C).

This is a complete different approach than the one based upon a 'general' Banker math advantage as now we're considering an average card distribution and not a side being favorite over the other one by a 0.18% better ROI (not applicable at no commission Tiger tables where, of course, the best bet is Player).

We've made exhaustive long tests about those baccarat 'codes', either by adopting the common 'horizontal' succession registration (single shoes) and 'vertically' successions (comparing which numbers are more likely to come out in the same position after many shoes are dealt).

So single hands are not important unless they are belonging to a more or less clustered event displayed by a precise number. And we ought to be interested just in what happens after a given number appeared.

The horizontal and vertical registration not only increases the betting opportunities but will amplify the actual probability that given numbers are more likely to be followed by some numbers categories.
In some way we're challenging the 'random production' to fall sooner or later into the more expected 'average' card distribution.

The more we're challenging this world by: 1- waiting for some 'negative' deviations before betting (the distributions are unlikely following deviated lines), 2- adopting a multilayered betting scheme and higher will be our edge.

Notice that in any instance we're not betting 'in the dark' as the average card distribution (making some numbers more likely than others) must prevail itlr, otherwise most part of trend following players would be rich by spotting profitable spots shoe per shoe and, frankly, that's not the case to look for (at least in our opinion).

To provide the simplest way to set up a possible strategy consider this plan:

after any 3 sequence (see again my above example) happening at singles and/or streaks, we'll wager that after the break of such 3 situation, any consecutive single succession and/or any consecutive streak will not surpass the 0 or 1 value.
If any 3-3 or 3-2 spot happens, we'll wait until another new 3 shows up.

Since the general '3' probability to show up is 12.5%, you can serenely wait all other outcomes so just focusing about what happens after a 3.
We've sayed to bet toward 0 and 1 (it's a win, if played by a 2-step progression) and stopping after any 2 or 3 (this last outcome won't interest us as we've stopped the wagering after the 2 losing appearance).

This is a specific random walk to follow that math considers the same way as any other 'random' betting, that is a EV- proposition getting the same sd values.

Bighornsh.it.

If you have the patience to wait for those '3's, maybe waiting to cross through some unfavourable 2 or 3 consecutive negative steps (3-2 and/or 3/3 spots), you'll get a sure fkng indeniable statistical edge over the house and reaching astounding profitable values.
For that matter there's no need to wait for consecutive negative spots whether a proper multilayered betting scheme is adopted.

Instead of trying to guess the 'unguessable' or hoping that things will go by general math propensities (betting B), consider to play an 'average card distribution' plan.
You'll bet very few hands (on average one or two hands per 8 resolved hands dealt) knowing that itlr you'll play an EV+ game by waiting a small negative deviation and/or by utilizing a multilayered progressive plan.

At the same token we can make a plan about more likely 2s, even though some differences must be considered here.
We'll see this topic next week.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on January 13, 2022, 12:50:35 PM
Groups=Sections? 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on January 13, 2022, 01:40:59 PM
Hi AsymBacGuy
I liked your sidebar on TigerBet up above.

re: Your following statement...
"...Our EV is in direct relationship about how many times we got 'more likely' clustered events than 'isolated' events, knowing that itlr this value is slight more oriented toward the clustered side. In a way or another, but always depending about the general probability we want to classify.

Take the last classification I've illustrated above.

Itlr, consecutive successions of univocal patterns (singles or streaks) are more likely to come out by precise numbers, for example if you'd progressively wager toward not getting any 3-3 sequence (for example) you'll get a sure statistical advantage no matter how the fkng math will dictate.   ..."


     Q: For clarification--You are suggesting wagering for NOT getting a precise (exact)3-3 and you do not mean the second leg could equal a  3-3+  with your example of a 3-3 being pppbbb ?
Thanks


Continued Success,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 16, 2022, 09:38:01 PM
Quote from: alrelax on January 13, 2022, 12:50:35 PM
Groups=Sections?

Hi Al!

Yep, of course everything depends upon about how one considers a 'group or section'; imo a group is any sequence of events getting the same properties belonging to the most possible restricted category.
Of course we can hope to be right for the almost entire lenght of the shoe, at the same time fearing that a large number of opposite 'heterogeneous' spots denying steady groups will come out sooner or later at a given shoe.
Most of the times, a shoe won't present steady long detectable spots and of course it won't present steady unguessable spots either.
But you know very well what I'm talking about.  ;)

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 16, 2022, 10:27:00 PM
Quote from: KungFuBac on January 13, 2022, 01:40:59 PM


Itlr, consecutive successions of univocal patterns (singles or streaks) are more likely to come out by precise numbers, for example if you'd progressively wager toward not getting any 3-3 sequence (for example) you'll get a sure statistical advantage no matter how the fkng math will dictate.   ..."


     Q: For clarification--You are suggesting wagering for NOT getting a precise (exact)3-3 and you do not mean the second leg could equal a  3-3+  with your example of a 3-3 being pppbbb ?
Thanks

Continued Success,

Hi KFB!

Nope, whenever a 3 value is reached I'm not interested whether it will be an exact 3 or a 4, 6 or 12.
I'm going to classify those different sequences into the 3+ category.

Btw, you've raised an interesting topic we didn't investigate so far, obviously any 3+ precise class will fight against any superior 3+ class but it will take too long time to exploit this feature.

Anyway notice that now we're talking about singles and streaks successions (horizontal sequences) and not about vertical sequences (singles, double, triples...)

It's true that a multilayered betting strategy wagering toward isolated 3+ 'normal' streaks happening at any side of any road (except cr) will be quite 'variance limited', but itlr the sum of W/L ratio will be deviated toward either the singled isolated 3+s or doubled isolated 3+s without knowing which category will be kissed by this propensity.
For example, some (rare) shoes will provide many two clustered 3+ consecutive streaks, therefore to get this plan properly working we need to classify 'isolated 3+s' and double 'isolated 3+s'.
Whenever a clustered value of any class (isolated 3+s and double isolated 3+s) will get substantial abnormal deviations, we know we'll play a sure EV+ game by exploiting a simple RTM effect (that at baccarat works for the average card distribution topic).

The 'horizonzal' registration tends to get rid of those problems as now we are not giving a lesser damn about a simple back-to-back probability unless a new winning side comes out.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 18, 2022, 12:41:10 AM
There are 'infinite' ways to arrange 312 or 416 cards into a shoe but bac codes are way more restricted in their distribution.
And a bac code is just the result of innumerable card distributions. Hence many many card distributions provide the same outcomes in a way or another. Almost always by unproportional values.

Naturally it's way more likely to 'guess' right whenever a number succession includes three or four number categories than a sequence as 1,4,1,2,3,2,7,1,1,1,3,5, etc...
Especially if those few numbers seem to get unequivocal properties. 

Guessing the actual baccarat code

Itlr, the probability to win is in direct relationship of how much 'more likely' situations will show up along the played shoe. It's like throwing darts having a larger than normal target to aim for. We won't hit the target everytime but more frequently than at a normal target.
In baccarat terms this means that an average card distribution will make this target quite large to be exploited but deviated card distributions could be heaven or hell by a symmetrical probability.
Unfortunately most bac players transform 'hell' into disaster and heaven into a too slight positive occurence.

Simply sayed and providing that acute players are in action, average card distributions will make casinos as sure losers because in a way or another something will be more likely than other by a fair margin.
Technically those spots arise when Banker got its fair share of streaks, Player a fair amount of consecutive singles and/or doubles or very short streaks and so on.
At those situations, acute players do know when to attack and when to simply watch.

Anyway even acute players do not know what to do when 'undetectable' situations will come out in a row and many shoes belong to this category.
It's now that a proper evaluation of bac codes could help them.

Are shoes so randomly produced that any effort made to be more right than wrong is totally fruitless?

Rattlesnakes.h.i.t.

Even though many card distributions will make same results no matter how cards are distributed into a shoe (and we've seen this is a decisive property to exploit from but from another point of view), numbers instruct us that the 'random' world is not that random and we have the direct proof by studying the sd values of the results.

Let's make an example.

Every baccarat code is formed by a number succession, say by 3 or 4 different numbers getting a different descending probability to appear. I transform numbers into letters. 

We have registered the first shoe that looked as ACBBCDAABDDCAAB (4 letter spots).
It's important to grasp the concept that each letter won't belong to a precise quantity hands distribution.

Now we have to guess what the fk is more likely coming out on the next shoe.

First.
Odds that this shoe will get the same number of letters are relatively low.
Technically and obviously it means that 'letters states' could come out by a more or less quantity than the previous one.
Surely and in the worst case scenario at least 6 or 7 letters steps will be involved.

Second.

There's a probability to get same letters at each position depending upon their general probability to happen (A=even money, B=1/4, C=1/4 and D=1/4).

Third.

Notice what letter came out after a given letter in the first shoe. (In our example A was followed by C,A,B,A,B. And B by B,C,D;  C by B,D,A; D by A,D,C).

Probability to get a precise back-to-back same number positional situation will be quite low unless the first shoe presented many consecutive even money spots (A occurences). And/or if many consecutive same more likely letters had come out in the first shoe.

Additionally, back to back shoe consecutive same numbers different than 0 and falling into the same position will be less likely to happen at various degrees and many times we don't have to bet 3 steps to get the best of it.

Naturally it's sufficient to test your shoes to see what's the most profitable course of action to be taken. The 'things change' approach is just an accelerating (and quite more risky) process of taking the best of it.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 18, 2022, 11:53:29 PM
Along the flow of the game some hands are more important than others

From a practical point of view, the vast majority of bac hands shouldn't be considered at all.
Those numerous hands constitute the 'side' but we should only be interested about the 'main dish'.

I know this statement totally collide with common sense and math teaching us that any hand will get the same general probability to appear. True, providing a random source of results. Along with other features that have shown to be decisive in our process of winning.

It's a sure fact that you won't see a single long term winning bac player betting more than two or (very rarely) three consecutive hands either when winning and especially when losing.
Such players do not give a damn about dragon tails, long trends or stuff like that. (Actually sometimes we do but always by not endangering a previous profit).

If they think to be able to select profitable spots to bet into they want to win immediately or on the next hand at worst. If they win they collect, if they lose they go away.
It's like that a possible edge didn't appear in that selected circumstance so they think it won't come again along the same shoe.

Such repetitive process is made infinitely, hopping from table to table so watching a lot and wagering little.

Without knowing what they are really looking for, mathematically this procedure remains an unsound strategy; anyway and assuming they are not APs, they'll fill casinos' pockets by a very low frequency.

After all to get a long term edge over the house our single bets must get at least a 51.3% probability to win when betting Banker and at least a 50.1% probability to win when wagering Player.
Betting multiple hands in a row or many bets per shoe cannot achieve that important cutoff probability percentages as profitable spots (if they really exist) comes out few and far between.

Naturally it's easier to compute the actual w/l percentages happening at the different sides when betting one or two hands per shoe.

For example, an average two hands betting per shoe means to play 35 different tables as compared to a player betting 70 hands at a single shoe.
Again, mathematically things doesn't change but maybe practically they do.

In fact, a player betting 70 hands per shoe is going to challenge several times in a row a single card distribution. This shoe could be profitable (easy detectable patterns) or not (weird undetectable patterns), yet the house is going to get the same expected amount of money at just one table than the player betting two hands at 35 different tables.

Even if the two-hands per shoe bettor plays randomly, he/she'll get more 'free' informations than the 'bet every hand' player that is forced to 'guess' everything happening at that single shoe.

In addition, the rare bettor could track easily what happened in that selected wagered situation/s shoe per shoe and acting accordingly, the other player cannot remember his/her w/l line as more forced to consider a shoe as a total world apart.

There's a big substantial difference by hoping that a 'more likely' pattern will come out by playing 35 shoes (meaning 35 different card distributions) than by playing one shoe.

Always remembering that if our bets are not getting at least 51.3%/50.1% percentages, itlr we're not going anywhere and this thing can only happen when a fair number of 'average' card distributions show up.

I understand it's hard to play a couple of hands per shoe but without this attitude you'll invariably belong to the losers category.
(Of course nothing prevent us to bet many hands per shoe by a 10x or 20x lower amount than the 'key' bet, but consider this approach as an additional vig to face).

Next week some practical guidelines we use to attack side bets.

as.   
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 24, 2022, 01:27:28 AM
Curiously from one part side bets are the best option for casinos to enlarge their winnings and from the other part they can 100% be beaten mathematically.
It's like baccarat players like to fall into this cognitive dissonance as many people wager side bets but almost nobody or very few will take advantage of them.

The vulnerability of many side bets was publicly discussed by Eliot Jacobson in his 'Advanced Advantage Play' book, a very good reading for every serious baccarat player.
The problem is that it's quite difficult to put the theory into practice and people who really make a living by only attacking the side bets don't give public advices for obvious reasons.
Just to give an example, whenever a casino suspects some players are counting cards profitably, shoes start to be cut more lightly thus lowering or even erasing a possible players' EV+.

For that matter and in order to avoid home pc card counting, online casinos are used to cut a lot of cards from the play and when a 416 cards shoe is reduced to a 312 or less cards shoe (nearly two decks are removed from the play) every card counting attempt is fruitless.

Generally speaking, from a side bets vulnerability live shoes are way more attackable as most shoes are played for their almost entire lenght, especially whether a low card came as first card.
Notice that some casinos are aware of this, then when a low card is dealt as first card they'll cut off more cards at the end of the shoe in a kind of 'balancing' burning cards fashion.

Anyway and despite of their math vulnerability and a proper assessment of actual conditions, we think that side bets should be considered just as an enhancing winning factor going along our strategy and not the main reason why we are there.
First, side bets card counting involves a lot of natural variance and frankly we do not want to be behind or to wait favourable spots for long, it's just a waste of time (then of money).
Secondly, tracking the natural 'low frequency' of side bets can easily divert us from the more profitable main strategy made on BP and derived hands.
Third, side bets betting tends to elicit a 'tipping' attitude, an additional factor that will decrease our EV.
Fourth, a rare side bet player might get a lot more heat from casinos than a normal BP bettor as math is indisputable and Jacobson (along with other authors) scientifically proved that side bets are beatable.

In his numerous posts, Alrelax pointed out the importance to exploit rare events (F-7 or Panda bets, for example) coming out clustered, I mean they must come out clustered at some point.
He's right as a perfect frequency following the general probabilities is proven to be out of order.

Yet in our opinion the actual probability to hit a side bet is proportionally related about how many 'simpler' situations will come out, the simpler the better.

Therefore most of the times any 3-card hand situations won't belong to this category, in the sense that we better need one side to get a precise two-card situation as it'll be the more likely occurence to look for.

I've already written several times here that any possible side bet paying a natural point on either side (B, P and/or both) will be astoundingly beatable by a multilayered progression and actually no one casino in the world will offer this side bet.
For that matter the Dragon bonus bet is beatable by the same features, of course always wagering (when indicated) Player side as being nearly 4 times less disadvantaged than Banker side.
I mean that our primary aim will be to get a Player natural by adopting a multilayered progression, knowing that even when we do not hit the P natural we'll get options to get higher than 1:1 payments.

At the same token, the 'losing natural' side bet is hugely beatable whenever many 8s and 9s are live in the remaining portion of the shoe. Remember it's a 50:1 payed bet.

Tiger bet follows the same lines as 6s must combine with a zero value card at some point, I mean it's virtually impossible not to get a B winning 6 along a couple of shoes dealt.

Pairs are more intricated to be assessed, only a computer could get the best of it itlr. In no way I'm suggesting an illegal device to get the best of baccarat, it would be an insult to common intelligence.

Panda bets and F-7 bets both involve 3-card precise situations, only a very experienced player (or a player adopting a card counting approach) will get the best of it itlr.
Of course 8s from one part (Panda) and 7s from the other one (F-7) will make a huge role about the likelihood to win.

6/7 bad beat bets or three card 8s/9s are too unlikely options to be considered.

Ties.

Accordingly to what I've written so far and knowing that most of the ties come out when 6 cards will form a hand, ties are very rarely exploitable.
Not only they are affected by a strong EV-,  but their volatility is pretty huge.
After all on average few hands involve the use of six cards and this thing should close the talk.

Summary

Most of the times ties are not a viable option to make money. Naturally if we know to get a main EV+ plan, betting ties tends to endorse the casino's perception we are clown losers.
In any case, do not bet a tie unless a tie happened.
If many ties have occurred in the actual shoe, continue to bet small amount on ties.

Do not bet pairs, 6/7 bad beats or three card 8/9 bad beats.
It's true that pairs are beatable via card counting, but it's virtually impossibile to get the best of it without the help of an illegal device or getting a kind of heat from casinos.

F-7 and Panda bets are beatable via card counting, yet as those bets are generally offered at no commission tables, we should be way more focused about F-7 spots than Panda bets as the former will transform a B winning hand into a push whereas a Panda bet is just an additional bonus.
In this instance live 7s make a primary role on that.

'Losing natural bad beat' is one of the best way to make money by card counting, by now this bet is only offered at certain Stadium baccarat pits.

Dragon bonus.
If you wish to play this side bet do not forget to only bet the Player side. Casinos are happy to see that many players like to place Dragon bonus bets at both sides or, even worse, just on B side.
Setting up a multilayered progressive plan to get a P natural (at least) after a given deviation happened, will get you a sure edge over the house as some huge payed spots will come out to your favor (not mentioning that an equal number of naturals must come out at P side than at B side itlr).

Tiger bet.

A more classical example where math goes right down the toilet. 
Casinos were so happy to know that at Tiger bet tables B bets jumped from a +1.06% EV to a more appealing +1.46% EV, without being instructed that Tiger bet is easily countable and affected by a kind of very low variance. 
We guess that Tiger tables will disappear very soon, so reverting back to common vig tables.
Or that CSMs will be employed with the serious risk that nobody will bet a cent on those CSM tables.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 25, 2022, 12:13:34 AM
How many times in a row we're expected to lose with our plan?

This is the key factor to ascertain whether we're really playing a EV+ game or a kind of bighorn.sh.it.
Notice that I'm not mentioning the opposite situation as losing is well more likely than winning as baccarat remains a general EV- game.
As long as we're restricting the losing situations than what general probabilities dictate we're playing a EV+ game.

Say we're repeatedly tossing a unbiased coin but for some reasons we'll get an equal or less number of winning streaks than losing streaks, yet consecutive losing streaks stop at some points disregarding the general 0.5 probability to appear.
Of course an acute player will start to progressively bet until a losing streak of certain lenght had happened.
Notice that we won't give a lesser fk about which side is going to stop more likely as we have assessed that in the vast majority of the times losing streaks at either side hadn't surpassed a sort of cutoff point.

For example, say we tossed the coin one million of times, so on average we're entitled to cross a 10 or higher losing sequence 976 times but we have managed to register just 30 times of such occurence.
This is a strongly significant statistical value that the coin flip proposition won't follow a general 0.5 probability.

Now we begin to suspect that either our coin is not so unbiased or that it'll be unfairly tossed, yet we can't find reasons why intermediate W/L spots are following general probabilities whereas cutoff deviated spots are more likely to stop than to 'naturally' prolong.

Baccarat works around this concept: most of the times the coin is unbiased or fairly tossed (EV-), whenever a card distribution will reach some cutoff negative values, our expectancy will surpass the house edge (EV+) and fortunately for us and differently to this example many intermediate spots will get a fair probability of success and a low degree of variance (sd values).

For obvious reasons, card distributions cannot provide independent situations for long, actually most of the times they move around 'quite' expected and unbeatable probabilities until a given event is well more likely than what general probabilities dictate and of course a 'general' probability negates any kind of advantage for the player.

Add this to the fact that bac shoes are not so randomly produced as many people think: we are instructed to battle a random world but actually we don't.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 26, 2022, 03:44:26 PM
I have to thank you all as this thread got 100k views, it's a nice accomplishment I'm very proud of!

Special thanks to Alrelax, the owner of this site. Then thanks to Kungfubac, klw and many others.

On one occasion I've heard a bac manager of one high end casino saying "not every baccarat player is a loser".
Good news. We suspect he was right.  :thumbsup:

Next week I'll present a class of additional derived roads to look for.

Take care.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: klw on January 26, 2022, 08:00:17 PM
Cogratuations AsymBacGuy . It truly is 1 of the best threads ever. Full of information and very helpful. I am using your information as a base for my Bac. journey. A problem I am encountering is that I am trying to observe and note hand histories from live play. I can't seem to find a free play Bac. table and when I observe my online casino tables you get disconnected pretty quickly if you don't place a bet and I don't want the added pressure of placing bets while studying what's going on.

Any ideas how I get round this ?

Cheers.

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: 8OR9 on January 27, 2022, 02:35:04 AM
I'm not sure where you live but try to see if a nearby casino has Virtual baccarat ( also virtual roulette and virtual blackjack ....dealt by a real dealer ( not an RNG )..... and you can place bets on  a computer terminal.......but you can sit out an entire shoe and not bet and no one will bother you........unfortunately only a few casinos have these virtual machines.

The Venetian in Vegas has them as well as Boston Encore casino in Massachusetts  and the Connecticut casinos.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: klw on January 27, 2022, 04:02:51 PM
Hi 8or9 -- Thanks for the reply.

I'm in the Uk , no casinos anywhere near where I live so online it has to be. Looks like I'll just have to bet to stay at a table. Cost of learning I suppose.

Cheers.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 30, 2022, 08:50:53 PM
Quote from: klw on January 26, 2022, 08:00:17 PM
Cogratuations AsymBacGuy . It truly is 1 of the best threads ever. Full of information and very helpful. I am using your information as a base for my Bac. journey. A problem I am encountering is that I am trying to observe and note hand histories from live play. I can't seem to find a free play Bac. table and when I observe my online casino tables you get disconnected pretty quickly if you don't place a bet and I don't want the added pressure of placing bets while studying what's going on.

Any ideas how I get round this ?

Cheers.

Thanks klw!

Yep, it's quite difficult to play at online casinos and one of the reasons is just the disconnection issue.
For that matter I know some people experiencing many disconnections even though a lot of real bets were placed but a more fearsome issue to face is that some bets are 'returned' without any sensible reason (as they were placed on time and connection was good).
Finally, too many cards are burnt at the end of the shoe (for obvious reasons) erasing some profitable opportunities to bet.
However, a strong pro about online play is that you won't catch Covid by any means  :D

I'd suggest to manually shuffle and deal shoes for yourself, tracking the results by a free software that takes care of all roads.
A further (but quite costly) improvement is to purchase a Shuffle Master machine (identical to those working at live casinos) where you can get a new fresh shoe ready to use after the first one was dealt.
Now you can compare the same shoe results coming out alternatively.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: klw on January 30, 2022, 08:53:41 PM
Thanks As -- Good advice.

Cheers.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 30, 2022, 11:28:52 PM
At gambling (and at real world for that matter) it's very unlikely that authors and works of the past won't be of any help for actual scholars.
You know that on my pages I've stressed a lot about the cleverness of derived roads (DR) Macau inventors in the 70s: even though it's probable their main aim was different than ours, derived roads remain the best indicator that baccarat could be beatable.

Why casinos that are so smart in extracting money from their customers keep presenting derived roads on their displays?
I do not know, probably as math gurus had instructed them to think that more derived lines are showing up higher will be the confusing world players must face. Or in any case that DRs won't hurt the house.   

Notice that baccarat literature remains focused about B and P hands (mainly by fruitless card counting techniques) or side bets card counting but nobody has ever mentioned DR features.
Along with other features. Fortunately for us.

Of course to be worthwhile DR probabilities must follow a kind of 'biased' original BP sequence, so if we win at DR we'll win at Big Road too. And vice versa.

Technically this thing is possible only when disputing the real randomness of the sample (card distribution) by place selection and probability after effects tools.
Or that baccarat was beatable at the start but 'experts' hadn't find a decisive tool to look for as stubbornly oriented about math probabilities.

Building a fourth derived road

This is not the magic potion to look for, just an accelerating and additional tool to assess in order to get more likely patterns along any shoe dealt. A further proof that the random world won't be so random.

Say we call it 'asymbac' road as I strongly think to be the first to publicly present this idea.

In a nutshell, we are simultaneously registering all 3 DR (byb, sr and cr) in form of blue or red dots by this rule: whenever 2/3 or 3/3 DR will converge toward a specific color (blue or red) we will write a blue or red spot in one separated line accordingly to the actual red or blue outcome.

Since any hand is good to provide a shifted red or blue spot as 2/3 oriented no matter what, we can assess an additional 'predominant' red or blue line considered by 'codes' and each having a more likely  lenght.

Example.

Shoe went as

PPP
BB
P
BBBB
PP
BBB
PPPP
B
PP
BBB
PPPP
B
P
BB
PP
B
PP
BB
P
BB
PP
BBB
P
B
P
BBB
PPP
B

The actual 'asym DR' went as:

rrr
b
r
b
rr
b
rrr
bb
r
b
rr
b
rrr
bbbbbbbb
rrrr
b
rrrrr
bbbb
r
b
r
bb
r
b

Let's add byb and small road lines:

byb:

r
bbb
rr
b
r
b
r
bb
rr
bbbbb
r
bb
rr
bbb
r
bb
rr
bbb
rr
bbb
rrr
bbb
rr
b
r
b
rrr

and sr:

b
r
b
r
bbb
rr
b
r
b
r
bb
r
bb
r
b
r
b
r
bbbbbbbb
rr
bbb
rr
bb
r
bbbb
r
b
r
bb
r
b

If we were to assess the most likely card distribution this shoe presents, we see there are good opportunities to look for, sometimes so polarized a child would get the best of, others more intricated but in any way 'codes' are way more restricted than what a unbeatable random world dictates.

More on that tomorrow.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 01, 2022, 12:38:47 AM
This new derived road will take care of the 'predominant' red or blue global propensity (2/3 or 3/3) happening at any shoe dealt.
If 2/3 or 3/3 of all three DRs dictate to get a red spot and the next hand will be a red spot we'll sign a red spot otherwise we write down a blue spot.

Of course this new line will get the same identical properties of any other registration, confirming that baccarat shoes are not so randomly produced as general probabilities dictate.

It's now that we should understand the important fact that some hands cannot belong to our registration by any means as they simply had surpassed our cutoff points of interest.

Since bac shoes are finite by definition, we know that the probability to get this or that will be proportionally related about how many times such cutoff points will be surpassed.

We can't control every outcome, let alone the majority of outcomes, we could just control the propensities of an average (then more likely) card distribution.

In other words, our strategy should rely upon a 'limited random walk'.

We can do that as any card distribution of the universe cannot deviate from more likely occurences for long, otherwise casinos would be thrown out of business by offering bac tables.

So 'easy detectable trends' will be less and less probable as long as shoes are dealt whereas the 'more likely world' must happen very soon than later.

Math expectation and statistical expectation

Mathematics cannot be disputed but the environment where math should be working should.

There's no one serious statistical evidence proving that live baccarat shoes are randomly produced, and we can't give a lesser fk whether itlr B will approach more and more the 50.68% winning probability.
For that matter ask the math geniuses what will be the more likely pattern coming up at both sides and such fkng 'experts' have to run simulated shoes to provide an answer.
As no math formula will help them.

In any instance simulated shoes are belonging to an 'ideal' world as cards are not physically shuffled with all the consequent random limitations.

We can guess that a profitable strategy relies upon the actual probability to get a more likely average card distribution than a deviated card distribution as we've tested that the former category will overcome the latter category itlr.
So in some way we must get the lesser impact of natural deviated situations over the more likely normal lines, a principle perfectly opposed as to what many bac players will try to take advantage from.

And the answer is by assessing clustered and isolated events.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on February 01, 2022, 02:30:34 AM
What you said:

"In other words, our strategy should rely upon a 'limited random walk'.

We can do that as any card distribution of the universe cannot deviate from more likely occurences for long"..............

Is exactly spot-on.  However the problem once a player wins using it, is his psychological end which falls subconsciously to greed (big time) and then the recklessness begins. 

I have written extensively about that. 

Being successful at baccarat involves numerous things to be conscious about and employ at the table.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 01, 2022, 11:28:20 PM
Quote from: alrelax on February 01, 2022, 02:30:34 AM

However the problem once a player wins using it, is his psychological end which falls subconsciously to greed (big time) and then the recklessness begins. 

I have written extensively about that. 

Being successful at baccarat involves numerous things to be conscious about and employ at the table.

You are absolutely correct!!

Probably the quote Hoping for the best but expecting the worst best illustrates the concept.

Even playing by a math edge (or an advantage of some kind) we must 'hope' that things will go in our favor in a decent amount of time; in the meanwhile we must expect the worst.

Sometimes even casinos rely upon that adage.
Think how glad pitbosses stare at an occasional super high stakes player finding endless winning streaks with no guarantees he/she will return to play there.   

Sayed that, I'm pretty certain that baccarat is a scientifically beatable game, actually the best game to play at any casino.
It will be a time when casinos will use CSM at their bac tables, erasing any possible 'card distribution' study and finiteness of the shoe, neutralizing random defects and of course any side bets card counting.
Or maybe not as 99.9% of bac players (a real optimistic percentage) keep staying at the 'ignorant' side of the things, so continuing to fill casinos' pockets. 

Finally, but we should know that very well, itlr the probability to win mathematically at a math EV- game is zero.

But 1+1=2 only when 1 is a real 1; maybe in the real world 0.9+1.1=2 and it's now that things could change.

as
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 06, 2022, 01:56:02 AM
At baccarat the only thing we should look for is the 'Probability World', I mean the real situations bac tables are going to produce endlessly.

We won't give a lesser cottontail rabbitsh.it about math laws as those belong to an 'ideal' world where each hand is completely independent from the previous one and the source of results will be perfect randomly distributed.
Therefore do not insult your intelligence by thinking that baccarat cannot be beaten as math dictates so.

Anyway it can't be beaten as well without having measured your results by testing a very large LIVE shoes sample.

After having tested a lot of real live shoes and knowing what to look for, it's quite easy to find out that potential math probability has nothing to share with actual probability, especially whether we're considering series of limited events.

That means that itlr the probability to get an 'average card distribution' shoe will overcome any other scenario and whenever an average shoe will happen we're strongly favored to win.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: 8OR9 on February 06, 2022, 04:29:13 PM

KLW    I was in the UK for a few years (in the Midlands) and most of the casinos are small or cater to high rollers...Grosvenor, Crockfords in London etc etc ...... so it can get very expensive if you attempt to test a new bac method in a casino.

Personally, I would never play online...too many problems.....and don't even think about playing online against an RNG....you might as well flush your money down the loo.

Probably as mentioned by ASYMBACGUY, is to buy an automatic shuffler and deal about 200 or 300 shoes and see if you can find any abnormalities which are worthwhile...  finding only one or two abnormalities a shoe will not be practical or worthwhile....... so don't quit your day job.

Even if you can find 15 or 20 abnormalities a shoe, there is no guarantee you can come out a winner in the short run, even if you have a large % probability edge  such as 10%........you will win in the long run with a 10% advantage, but in the short run, normal standard deviation can turn you into a loser over 2 or 3 shoes in a row.

Most blackjack teams in the 1970's  to  1990's using a big player only placed big bets when the deck showed a     
1.5 % advantage.........   and it was very common for their bank to lose 20 % to 40 % of its value...even playing with a 1.5 % edge.

And if you are married with a few kids and your wife sees you dealing cards on the kitchen table for 2 or 3 hours every day, you might soon be talking to a divorce lawyer.


Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: klw on February 06, 2022, 07:54:00 PM
8OR9  -- Many thanks for your comments.

I am using Ladbrokes here in the UK. They are a FTSE listed company on the London Stock Exchange. I doubt it's the best game around but should be trustworthy.

Cheers.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 07, 2022, 12:13:52 AM
8OR9: good points.
BTW, "happy wife (or happy husband) = happy life"  :D

There's a big difference between baccarat testing and black jack testing:
At black jack we are just interested about high/low card concentration/dilution, being high cards favourable and low cards unfavourable, anytime anywhere and anyhow. So pc simulated shoes are really worthwhile to test.
In a word, one sided deviation (deck portions rich of high cards and aces) will be the only guideline to follow in order to get a math edge.

At baccarat the main factor polarizing the results will be the average key card distribution, but we do not know how much and how long a side will be kissed by such key card falling.
Moreover many 'whimsical' results produce 'prolonging' or 'stopping' patterns where math apparently can't do anything about that other that in the very long run.
That is there are so many actual variables to consider that we should just rely upon the king/queen tool of statistical evidence: the frequentist approach.

So, for example, never assume that after tossing a given dice a '6' will show up by a 1/6 'expected' probability unless you have collected data capable to confirm that (sd is the watchdog of randomness).
Now it's clear that pc simulated shoes are not performing the same qualities any physically shuffled shoe dealt will get as many different than 'high/low' variables come in order.

Consider a Shuffle Master Machine shuffling two different shoes alternatively.
The probability a fresh shuffled shoe will break ALL coupled (back-to-back) cards happened at the same dealt shoe is literally zero. And many times even three (or more) cards won't be broken in their old sequence.
You can argue that this thing doesn't make a side more likely than the other one, yet this is a strong proof that shoes are not so 'randomly' shuffled as people would think of.

There are additional examples to make not involving SM machines that for obvious reasons I do not want to expose here.

Anyway think that in the vast majority of the times, physically shuffled shoes can't simulate a pc card distribution as a kind of bias is acting along the way at some point.
So testing a strategy on pc bac shoes is a fruitless task.
After all we won't bet our money at pc simulated shoes.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: 8OR9 on February 07, 2022, 11:25:16 PM
Here are a few random thoughts:

1. I heard it said this way  ......"Happy wife, live a long life........Unhappy wife, storm and strife"

2. KLW   I hope Ladbrokes is using a live dealer and not using an RNG........if it's an RNG, I wouldn't even think about playing there.

3. You would think that someone in the marketing department would come up with a better name for a casino other
than LadBROKEs !!!!
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: klw on February 08, 2022, 09:04:42 PM
" 2. KLW   I hope Ladbrokes is using a live dealer and not using an RNG........if it's an RNG, I wouldn't even think about playing there. "


Yes 8OR9 , live dealer only.

Cheers.

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 09, 2022, 12:36:43 AM
Without any doubt statistical signicance is the best tool to try to beat BP results.
So we must ask ourselves 'how large should be the testing sample to know if a strategy is really good?"

The larger=the better of course, then we must compute the average betting frequency per shoe and the actual source of outcomes.

Simply put, we have to test until natural strong 'negative' deviations will happen (as heavy positive fluctuations are more expected) in relationship of the number of bets considered and then evaluating their impact on our strategy.

After all if we've chosen to set up our main plan on 'averages', we should be ready to face any strong negative unlikely deviation the course of action will produce along the way. And those unfortunate situations will come out proportionally with the number of shoes tested.
Trivial considerations, I know.

For example, say we have found a method capable to survive after a 4 sigma negative situation (e.g. losing 16 hands in a row or other situations like that).
More or less it's like facing a negative 16 B or P streak that will put a harsh or fatal dent to our bankroll.
At a 50/50 proposition and discounting neutral ties, odds that we'll face this event are 1:65.536.

So, on average, assuming to play nearly 65 resolved hands per shoe, we need 1000 shoes to face this possibility.

At the same token, by betting just 6.5 average hands per shoe we'll need more than 10.000 shoes to get a 4 sigma.

Hence we shouldn't fool ourselves by thinking that a 'diluted' betting plan alone will get better odds unless a proper proportional amount of shoes were tested. (Of course betting by a 10 times less frequency leads to a minor vig impact). 
This trick was (and is) currently used by 'magic system sellers' that (and I'm taking into account the 'fair' part of them) had tested an insignicant amount of shoes when related to the actual betting frequency.
Even worse are the people keep thinking and claiming that simple key trigger mechanical situations happening on average 1 or 2 times per shoe will get 'em a long term profit.
Now they'd need at least a 32.500 or 65.000 shoe sample to verify their claimings.

And we know the importance to ONLY register real phisically shuffled shoes, better whether considered under the more homogeneously factors we can think about.
So it's very very unlikely that a player or a team of players will possede such a large sample, so such claimings will directly go into the toilet.

But now let's say that after a fair amount of tested shoes in relationship of a shoe's average bet frequency, per every strong negative deviation happening (where we can't do anything) we'll get an unproportional amount of strong positive deviations, that is a number higher than 1.
If this number is substantially higher than 1, we might overcome the HE even knowing that our general math expectancy will be negative but our actual probability of success will go beyond the expected values.

And this possible feature must show up unproportionally at each class of favourable or unfavourable streaks lenght.

For example: say that after 1000 hands placed and assuming to bet a 50/50 percentage of BP hands, we've set up a strategy where our profitable winning rate must be at least 50.7%.
Thus we need to win at least 507 hands, so losing hands account as 493.
It's a 1.4% cutoff edge, the minimum value to beat the HE when considering a 50/50 BP percentage average betting frequency.

Now let's dissect such values in terms of patterns.

Step #1

W singles must be lower than W clusters of any lenght;

L singles must be superior than L streaks of any lenght.

Step #2

W doubles must be inferior than superior winning streaks;

L doubles must be superior than superior losing streaks.

Step #3

W 3+ streaks must be superior than triple W streaks;

L triple streaks must be superior than 3+ losing streaks.

And so on.

Each class fights constantly against the opposite counterpart, so itlr a powerful strategy must get every class to outnumber the same opposite class by an ascending line.

It's the average card distribution that beats the house.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 15, 2022, 01:15:06 AM
Think that any shoe dealt in the universe will be affected by a kind of sure 'asymmetrical' bias as key cards cannot be proportionally distributed along any shoe.

The 'average' card distribution will help us to define what will be the more likely patterns that can't avoid to suffer natural short term negative fluctuations, but surely getting a long term profitability.

For example and neglecting a key flat betting strategy, set your random walk at an X more probable event (unb plan #1, #2 or code). Do not give a fkn fk about short term deviations. Dayly sessions are losers stuff.

Martingale your setted event by a progressive betting up you'll erase any previous deficit.
At any loss you'll stay at the same level, at any win you'll raise your bet.

Since we know that a chopping WL long scenario is less likely to happen than streaky negative or positive situations, a simple progressive plan will get the best of it as we won't raise our wagers unless a W came out and whenever a L shows up we'll stay at the same level.

The power of such strategy is that in any instance three different strategic plans will simultaneously get strong negative deviations on all lines.

And, btw, in any instance you'll get your bankroll crushed as a symmetrical losing world cannot happen for long at any single plan.

More on that tomorrow.

as.   
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 16, 2022, 01:04:23 AM
Streaks as a realiable source of asymmetry

The asymmetrical card distribution feature could be exploited by advancing one step further, that is by considering only the streaks of certain lenght.
More precisely by forming 'classes' of streaks of specific lenght.

We well know that per each class of streak we'll get an equal amount of superior streaks, therefore two classes of streaks will fight against another one by a general 0.75 probability.

Say we want to examine 3,4 and 5+ streaks (from now we name them 5). (Of course there are reasons to choose such categories). 

Shoe example #1.  Streaks are: 5, 3, 4, 3, 5, 3, 3, 3, 3.

3 vs superior streaks = 6/3

4 vs sup streaks= 1/2

Since we won't know when a given class of streaks will outnumber a proportional 'homogeneous' distribution, let's try to consider all possible 3-4-5 combinations.

3-4= LWWWLWWWW

3-5= WWLWWWWWW

4-5= WLWLWLLLL

Naturally to try to spot the 'heterogeneous' streak (and more importantly its average impact over the actual distribution) we can always adopt the unb plan #1 guidelines.

Shoe #2. Streaks are: 3, 3, 5, 4, 4, 3, 4, 5, 5.

3-4= WWLWWWWLL

3-5= WWWLLWLWW

4-5= LLWWWLWWW

Shoe #3. Streaks are: 4, 3, 5, 3, 5, 4, 5, 3, 3, 4, 5.

3-4= WWLWLWLWWWL

3-5= LWWWWLWWWLW

4-5= WLWLWWWLLWW

Shoe #4. Streaks are: 3, 3, 5, 4, 3, 3, 4, 3, 5.

3-4= WWLWWWWWL

3-5= WWWLWWLWW

4-5= LLWWLLWLW

Of course and besides of the last part of shoe #1, I have omitted to present shoe examples producing long homogeneous streaks of same lenght as 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 5, 3, 3, 3. And they are quite often to happen.
I've already named them as 'jackpots' for obvious reasons.
Now:

3-4= WWWWWWLWWW

3-5= WWWWWWWWWW

4-5= LLLLLLWLLL


Notice and obviously that there are no tricks involved about WL percentages, in fact:

shoe #1

3-4= +1
3-5= +5
4-5= -15   

shoe #2

3-4= -3
3-5= -3
4-5= -3   

shoe #3

3-4= -5
3-5= -1
4-5= -5   

shoe #4

3-4= +1
3-5= +1
4-5= -11   

Finally the last 'homogeneous' shoe:

3-4= +6
3-5= +10
4-5= -26   

If we were playing with a team formed by three different players each betting its class (3-4), (3-5) and
(4-5), we eventually got a -48 unit loss (plus vig), a loss accumulated only by the 4-5 player.

Do not be led to think that player wagering the longer streaks (4,5) will be destined to lose heavily most of the time as many shoes will present a lot of 4 streaks with few or no 3s and sometimes shoes are particularly rich of long streaks (5).

Again we are jumping back to the same old concept that it's not possible to beat the game by a strict mechanical betting unless we're considering a kind of 'biased' card distribution happening along any shoe dealt negating a perfect random unbeatable world.
And few spots are really worthwhile to be wagered at.

Therefore there will be 'math' probabilities to get B after A and there are statistical and actual probabilities to get B after A as at baccarat no hand is completely independent from the previous one, especially whether we have reasons to think the actual shoe is not perfect randomly shuffled.

Always realizing that such slight propensity will act under insignficant variance values just at very selected spots.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 21, 2022, 12:39:56 AM
Convergence in probability

No need to Wikipedia this concept that we can simply summarise into this passage:

"Stochastic convergence" formalizes the idea that a sequence of essentially random or unpredictable events can sometimes be expected to settle into a pattern.


Change the words 'essentially random or unpredictable events' with 'mostly unrandom events and quite predictable events' and 'sometimes' with 'more often than not' and you'll get a better idea of what I'm talking about.

There are no scientifical proofs showing that physically made baccarat successions are really randomly produced as they can't pass both the important 'place selection' and 'probability after events' features confirming the perfect random nature of results.
After all anyone thinking that baccarat produces random sequences infinitely should risk his/her money at other games.

So the vast majority of baccarat successions are made by limited probabilities oriented to produce more likely dynamic outcomes, of course at degrees well surpassing the fkng math negative edge.

But to get a substantial edge over the house we need our different limited random walks to converge into the same betting spot.

There are many ways to consider the factors influencing the actual patterns. A horizontal way of thinking the results (columns) is an answer as long with a kind of opposite vertical registration (rows).
Then the actual asym/sym hands finite ratio is another factor to consider.
Not mentioning how many high-key cards are live into the deck.
Finally, ties are surely another parameter to look for as shoes particularly rich of ties tend to deny 'normal' statistical deviations as any tie happened seems to 'erase' or lower any back to back expected probability.

To set up a long term winning strategy no need to take care of all those factors, maybe you have to do that whether flat betting maximum limits.
Actually a fair edge comes out whenever an isolated/clustered scenario converging into the same spot must take place at some points of most part of the shoes, as an already asymmetrical math proposition will be enforced by the important asymmetrical card distribution. Happening at unrandom shuffled shoes.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on February 22, 2022, 05:03:43 AM
I have said this many times........

"deny 'normal' statistical deviations as any tie happened seems to 'erase' or lower any back to back expected probability."

Low ties 0-1-2-3 when there are plenty of hands out, tend to produce nice clumps of whatever.  Meaning, the presentations will basically follow something relatively easy to follow.  Higher amounts of ties say 5-6 and up, tend to produce much harder to follow presentations, etc.


Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 22, 2022, 11:28:13 PM
Quote from: alrelax on February 22, 2022, 05:03:43 AM

Low ties 0-1-2-3 when there are plenty of hands out, tend to produce nice clumps of whatever.  Meaning, the presentations will basically follow something relatively easy to follow.  Higher amounts of ties say 5-6 and up, tend to produce much harder to follow presentations, etc.

Nice to hear from you this again, a further confirmation about that.

Shoes particularly rich of ties should fit the 'unplayable' shoes category.
We got even a theory about that.

Ties are more likely to show up when 6 cards are used to form a hand, that is where the most random world will take its place. As no key cards are more probably affecting the results at the start. 

So whenever ties seem to come out by a larger probability than expected, do not bet BP lines and get the fk out of that shoe very soon.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 23, 2022, 03:15:02 AM
Next week we'll see how some bet selections do not follow a perfect random walk movement, meaning that some BS steps move back and forward around a 0 point in the almost totality of possibilities.
One of the recipes to win itlr.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on February 26, 2022, 04:33:47 PM

Hi AsymBacGuy. Thx for your posts.

In reply#529 above you state the following:


"... To set up a long term winning strategy no need to take care of all those factors, maybe you have to do that whether flat betting maximum limits.
Actually a fair edge comes out whenever an isolated/clustered scenario converging into the same spot must take place at some points of most part of the shoes, as an already asymmetrical math proposition will be enforced by the important asymmetrical card distribution. Happening at unrandom shuffled shoes.  ..."

AS--Please clarify or maybe give a specific example for the sentences in bold as I want to make sure Im understanding you 100%.

Thank you,kfb
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 28, 2022, 01:03:05 AM
Hi KFB!

You've anticipated the exact point I would discuss about spotting light movements about a 0 point.

Say you consider two random walks applied at two streaks categories where each category includes a common first step winning class, then both class will diverge about the second step winning spot.
For example, one random walk is formed by 3-4 streaks and the second one is formed by 3-4+ streaks.

General probability dictates that we'll get an equal number of first step winning spot than second step winning spots, now splitted proportionally between those two opposite classes.
Of course to be true the general probability must take into account a kind of independent and random production acting at such precise streaks formation, meaning that everything will be equally probable so getting the normal sd values applied to a binomial independent probability. That is a unbeatable proposition.

We know bac streaks are not following a binomial probability by any means, either for math features (B>P) and for actual card distribution issues (a very slight propensity to get the opposite outcome already happened). An important decisive additional factor (never investigated so far) is that live shoes are not so randomly shuffled thus improving or not a general probability belonging to the former two fetaures.
Vulgarly sayed, math unidirectional propensity to get streaks of certain lenght will go directly into the toilet whether in the actual shoe the remaining two issues tend to overcome it.

In the attempt to try to exploit such features and to prove the dynamical unrandomness of the results, we could build a new random walk contemplating both different streaks 'lines' now studying the relative sd values.

To cut a long story short, the probability to get a common winning pattern happening at both random walks is moving around very low sd values once we'll take into account the xWW succession at one part and the WLW succession on the other one.
So dictating to bet toward the same outcome, that is toward a first step result.

Say streaks >2 at a given shoe show (a Aria, LV real shoe), btw it's a strong polarized shoe, not a 'easy winning shoe', as:

4, 10, 3, 6, 4, 4, 4, 5.

3-4 class will get W, L, W, L, W, W, W, L.
3-5 class will get L, W, W, W, L, L,  L, W.

Under the clustered/isolated betting spots converging into the same results (3), we'll get only the third step winning situation (W-W), yet we'll manage to bet just 4 times to get a xLW or WW pattern on both lines.
So we've lost 3 times winning just one time, anyway the actual 3:superior streaks ratio was a unusually 7:1.
Eventually we've lost two units (plus vig when applicable).

Say a kind of specular opposite situation came out as (Bellagio, LV real shoe) as:

3, 3, 4, 3, 5, 3, 3, 5, 3, 6, 4, 3

3,4: W, W, W, W, L, W, W, L, W, L, W, W
3,5: W, W, L, W, W, W, W, W, W, W, L, W.

Now we'll bet three spots (2nd, 9th, and 12th), all being winning spots.
The 3:superior streaks ratio now is a more likely 7:5 proposition, not balancing the previous 7:1 deficit.

Anyway and discounting vig, our random walk lost 2 units on that former very unlikely scenario and won 3 units on the latter yet proportionally unbalanced scenario as compared to the first one.

Cumulatively our new random walk found just 7 spots to bet at both shoes, eventually we have won 4 times and lost 3 times.
Notice that one shoe (first one) got a substantial abnormal deviation about the streaks appearance. More often than not, the 'first step' streak apparition will get its fair share of probability but do not confide too much about that as shi.t may easily happen for long.
Nonetheless this strategy will get you a sure fkng indeniable edge over the house, no matter how math 'experts' of my behind keep stating, after all they are managed to think about 'infinite' values where a random world will be in action and not about actual fkng real results.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 02, 2022, 12:42:32 AM
Multiplications of events

As early as 1926, the gambling expert Henry Chateau anticipated the important concept that no matter how we'd register the results and providing a random source of outcomes, any sub succession derived from the original one will get the same properties. He raised this issue in order to get more betting opportunities without waiting particular 'trigger' apparitions.

A similar concept was fully investigated years later by the eminent RVM math professor who posed the best basis ever of how to consider randomness.

Therefore, we could build infinite sub successions from the original one and nothing will change.
If the source of results will be random, the relative sd values will follow the common stats laws at every sub succession.

So we can write down on our paper only the odd/even results into two different lines, or just the outcomes by a 2 or 3 pace, or splitting the results into columns of 3, 4, 5 or even comparing a pre-ordered random registration to the actual outcomes.
If the source is random and any hand is independent from the previous one/s, the limiting values of relative frequencies will provide the same unbeatable situations.

At baccarat this perfect 'randomness' of the results seems not to work for reasons well known after having read these pages.

Taking for grant that symmetry is unbeatable and knowing for sure that asymmetry works for the most part of bac outcomes as cards cannot be equally distributed at each side, it remains to estimate the average probability that results will follow asymmetrical lines for some time and symmetrical lines for the other part.

Naturally asymmetrical lines follow both math features (B>P at 8.6% of the results) and actual card distribution features.
The first math factor is limited by its appearance as situations when B shows a 4 or a 5 (maximum asym math strenght) while P side is drawing are finite along any shoe dealt. Not mentioning that on asym hands B side will lose an average of 42.07% of the times no matter what.

On the other end, symmetrical hands are not so 'symmetrically' placed as many might think.
Long term data show us that independently of the side considered, a 'shifting' cutoff point (or points)  is/are constantly working making some results slight more likely than others.

Yet the important thing to take care of is that to be really profitable our method should pass every sub succession we wish to consider, meaning that a supposedly independent distribution will be more probable at every single sub succession whatever built.
This is one strong proof that results are not so randomly or independently distributed as a possible 'bias' is spread at different degrees along any shoe dealt.
Sometimes such bias is too weak to be exploited,  most of the times it will.

Again it's the 'clustering' feature that will help us to define the possible profitable situations.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on March 02, 2022, 04:33:26 AM
......."distributed as a possible 'bias' is spread at different degrees along any shoe dealt.
Sometimes such bias is too weak to be exploited,  most of the times it will."

That is what you said in the above post. And that is so correct, it is so simple, the same as the alphabet starting with ABC and ending with XYZ.

And when the bias is strong, so many players get in the 'I can't believe it frame of mind' they sit there and wait it out or they wager heavily for the 'cut' that is another 8 or 10 or 15 hands away.   

The story goes on...

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 07, 2022, 01:12:48 AM
Thx Al!

After all 'biases' are just the sub product of card distributions that surely will produce innumerable combinations, but if patterns are examined into precise classes they form a way more restricted (detectable) world. Especially if multiple random walks converge into the same betting spots.
Not everytime but most of the times.

The main problem most part of bac players keep thinking is that such biases 'should' come out around every corner of the shoe.

Obviously we should remember that a 'bias' definition, at least by the terms discussed here, is just an event or multiple events getting a losing counterpart to be more silent than possible.
In other terms, that results will be more asymmetrical than symmetrical, of course in relationship of the proportional general probability to happen.

So imo there are two basic but opposite approaches to win.

a) betting large at very rare situations getting the least amount of variance (different random walks converging into the same betting line by very low sd values);

b) progressively positive wagering a relatively low amount hoping that sooner or later a single random walk 'bias' will get a fair amount of consecutive winnings, until we're satisfied of the actual shoe winnings or that the shoe is exhausted.

Imo only very experienced players could consider intermediate approaches, as those raise the casinos' expectation for the remaining part of bac bettors.

Our personal comments.

Approach (a) needs a vigorous patience for the rarity of betting opportunities, mainly as we need rare unlikely situations to show up at the start or intermediate portions of the shoe.
Naturally it's the best way to get the best of it. Not mentioning that a light negative progressive plan will accelerate the winning process.

Approach (b) needs a strong confidence about the probability that a single random walk will get its fair share of heavy 'biases', providing a finite number of betting spots (say >1 and up to 20, knowing what I'm referring to).
Moreover, more often than not such approach will put the player in behind for a quite long time.
A heafty pro of this approach is that now it's the casino fearing our large bets hoping that a stopping pattern will come out and not the opposite.

Of course there's a statistical answer about all this, we'll see it in a couple of days.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 09, 2022, 02:31:33 AM
If we'd distribute real live baccarat outcomes into a x-axis and y-axis graphic we know that one side will asymmetrically diverge from the opposite one than a normal bell curve and this happens by the obvious asymmetrical probability as B>P.
So our curve will be more 'vertically' pronounced at B side than at P side.

This thing becomes more interesting when we consider BP sub successions as the common derived roads, for example.
Now red and blue spots examined per every d.r. line doesn't necessarily follow a pure asymmetrical probability as blue=red.

At the same token and for good peace of mathematicians, some bet selections are not equal and we might get a better idea about that by collecting real live shoes samples into a curve, thus showing (or not) that some variance values are unequally distributed along a large sample of shoes dealt.

If our bet selection neglects the math asymmetry, so unwisely assuming that B=P or confirming that red spots=blue spots, we infer that the actual card features will make a slight greater role about the total outcomes, at least in terms of variance.

We have already pointed out the importance to select 'random walks' roaming at most around a 0 point.

In probability theory and statistics we may find a possible answer to this into the 'kurtosis' concept.

Basically kurtosis investigates about the maximum frequency point of a statistical distribution. 
There are three different types of kurtosis curves:

a) Leptokurtic curve

Elements of the distribution are closely concentrated around the mean, variance is minimal.

b) Mesokurtic curve

Elements are spread around the mean in similar but not necessarily in the same way than Gaussian curve.

c) Platykurtic curve

It's a frequency curve showing a kind of flat shape; dispersion values diverging from the mean are quite high.

Obviously when playing baccarat we should be interested to apply a bet selection following just one curve as we know that here and only here the vast majority of results (whether a proper bet selection is applied) will be placed around the most frequent situations that unproportionally neglect general math values.
If some situations seem to deviate too much from the expected profitable line (and there are some cutoff points), we simply accept this and go forward on next sections of the actual shoe or waiting for next fresh shoes.

So if you'd think to get a long term profitable strategy, register your results into a graphic and whether your results will follow a kind of leptokurtic curve, you'll know to be up on something.
Providing to classify a quite large sample of real shoes, best if considered under the most homogeneous circumstances.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 14, 2022, 12:58:59 AM
After having tested a large amount of live shoes, we have reached the conclusion that betting certain spots will provide a huge EV+, of course within the back-to-back probability terms that cannot happen constantly along any shoe dealt.

Say A= winning spot and B = losing spot and a, b and c will be 'equally' probable outcomes.

Most of the times A=B, yet in certain spots A (a+b) > B (c) or A (a+c) > B (b) by unproportional values erasing and inverting the HE.

In an independent and infinite model, we can't guess when A>B but at baccarat we could.

Especially whether we're considering different shapes of limited random walks belonging to the same back-to-back category.
That's because limited random walks don't fit the real randomness requisites by any means.

Deeper will be our bet selection higher will be our EV.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 14, 2022, 01:09:02 AM
To get an idea about that, in a couple of days I'll show you our betting line made on real dealt shoes.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 16, 2022, 01:41:42 AM
Maximizing the baccarat flaws


As long as we know that all 416 cards are inserted into a shoe and even if casinos would know precisely what is our strategic plan, the probability (voluntary or not) to arrange cards in order to get us losers is ZERO.
Just the math negative edge still works, period. Let casinos be glad about that.

Start with the assumption that if a third card(s) isn't involved in the results formation, the game would be so easily beatable that it wouldn't exist at all.
Actually third card was invented to promote a 'house' advantage centuries ago as players could only bet the Player disadvantaged side.
Only later the 5% vig was conceived to burden the now bettable Banker side (thus mathematically lowering players' disadvantage by a 0.18% degree.

For that matter baccarat inventors 'forgot' to add an edge about the Banker (house) scheme, that is still in use: That is that a Banker 4 two-card point should draw a third card whenever a third card Ace is dealt to the Player (actual bac rules dictate the Banker to stand).
In any other scenario, third card rules advantage the Banker side.

If we play a finite and dependent card game where two-card symmetrical spots are easily beatable, third card rules just tend to confuse but not altering the entire picture.
So even though third card rule won't be in use (91.4% of total hands) bac results are not a kind of endless 'coin flip' propositions as many ignorants (especially at 2+2 forum) keep saying.
So such ignorants are double ignorants (btw hating baccarat but particularly attracted by poker tournaments when many times their whole destiny relies upon a REAL 'coin flip or so' proposition).

Therefore there are two main fields to investigate:

- the possible divergence from a B and P two-card succession (symmetrical probability) distribution related to an independent coin flip succession (symmetrical distribution). First moves around a 91.4% probability over the total outcomes and the second over the 100% of results.

- the average third(s) card impact (8.6% probability) typical of baccarat over the outcomes.

Obviously the first factor will way more likely shift the results as being 10.62 times more predominant than the second one, yet the second factor could 'confuse' the more probable 'flowing line' by different degrees.

Good news is that itlr such different 'movements' converge into a steady more likely line as third card impact can prolong or stop a given pattern by probabilities that we may safely accept as 'symmetrical'.

I know that this sounds as contradictory for what I've sayed so far, anyway we should remember that we won't know the precise spot when an asymmetrical hand will show up and naturally the very slight verified propensity to get the opposite outcome works infinitely.

A statement confirmed by taking derived roads as lines to follow, where blue and red spots do not fit the B and P requisites.

So our betting plan won't be sensible about B or P spots, considering them as virtually equally probable.

Data extracted on our real live shoes sample by playing one of our plans

For simpliciity only Big Road results are displayed here (flat betting scheme).

We got 19.934 winnings by wagering a first order 'cluster' spots.
We got 3907 winnings by wagering a second order 'cluster' spots.
We got 711 losing spots at the first order class and being neutral at second order spots. 
We got 1099 losing spots at both first and second order spots.

In total:

By wagering first order spot we got a 19.934/5717 W/L ratio.

By wagering second order spot we got a 3907/1099 W/L ratio.

Knowing the W=+1 and L=-3 ratio, the W/L was:

first order step: 19.934/17151 (1.16:1)

second order step:  3907/3297 (1.185:1)

Since we didn't make any difference about which side to bet, half ot such winning bets were decurted by the 5% vig.
So:

First step order: 0.95 x 9967 + 1 x 9967 = 9468.65 + 9967 = 19.435.65

Second step order: 0.95 x 1953.5 + 1 x 1953 = 1855.82 + 1953 = 3808.82.

So our real W/L ratio in units should be 19.435/17.151 (1.13:1) at the first order step and 3808/3297 (1.15:1) at the second order step.

Many could argue that a bit over 10k LIVE shoe results sample would be a too small insignificant one to reach some conclusions for, nonetheless we are not so naive to think that any system could get the best of it after even 2k or 3k of real live shoes.
Not mentioning the difficulty to collect a decent amount of live shoes data, the only ones we should care about.

After all, a keen player capable to observe/play an amount of 15 shoes per day, 5-6 days a week, needs almost three years to collect a 10k sample.

More importantly notice that second order clusters will get a higher positive EV, albeit needing more waiting time than first order spots.
You may ask whether higher order classes (third class and superior classes) will get a greater EV but our answer is that we are simply not interested about that for their rare appearance.

This is just one random walk derived from what I've written so far, next week we'll see how another different r.w. will perform on the same Big Road line.
With the consequences that sometimes multiple random walks will collide in the betting selection.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on March 16, 2022, 06:57:40 PM
Good post AsymBacGuy
I look forward to the next one.


Thanks,
kfb
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 21, 2022, 12:38:47 AM
Thanks KFB!


Same plan applied to a different live shoes sample

The beauty of playing baccarat worldwide is that sometimes you meet interesting people wishing to share some ideas about the game.
I'm particularly attracted by players that like to write down and collect the shoes they've played at, on one occasion I've encountered a couple of guys realizing the importance to consider only real live shoes and when they told me they got a fair amount of them I've invited them to share their data with ours.

We completely agreed that while considering live shoes a 'perfect random shuffle' is just a coincidence and not the rule.

So they sent me their live shoes sample that's even greater than ours (by a nearly 50% more amplitude).
We run the same plan as seen as above and here are the results:

First order cluster spots W/L ratio was very close to 1 (1:1), meaning no significant deviations went on either side.
Since we are constantly obsessed by a bet selection capable to get more wins than losses, we took this result as a kind of normal 'losing' situation to look for.
Therefore we are not so interested about a possible leptokurtic curve, the best to set up a progressive plan upon.
 
Second order cluster spots W/L ratio got more 'comfortable' results as the W/L ratio was 1.31:1, that is a well higher value than it was at our sample, more proportionally 'balanced' toward first and second degree cluster spots.

There are some possible answers to that, the most important is that whenever we are considering a supposedly clusters propensity by 'general quality' and not by 'strict quantity', some deviations may easily happen for the actual 'volatility' of streaks lenght.
Anyway if we'd think that along any shoe dealt 'things must change after a X cutoff point' or 'remain at a steady level up to a Y value' (all due to the average card distribution factor), it seems that the more we're restricting the field of operations higher should be our probability of success. Up the point that we will surely invariably get a fkng edge over the house.

Many could ask: "ok, given the relative rarity of bettable possible EV+ opportunities, a 25k live shoes data study means nothing to me. Show me such possible propensity on several hundreds of thousands of shoes or, better, on millions of live shoes dealt".

Even assuming that we're betting an average amount of one hand per shoe, the probability to be ahead after 25k shoes dealt will be zero unless we've found out that a kind of propensity belonging to an average card distribution should work.
Hence after any 25k shoes sample considered, any bet selection capable to get an edge after the vig impact is a sure EV+ recipe.   

Moreover, if an original result succession is asymmetrically affected by reasons going beyond the natural math propensity and binomial features, every sub succession originated from it will follow the same principles as the card distribution 'bias' cannot be altered by different 'pace selections' outcomes.

That means that what happens at the original succession will present the same properties at derived situations.
For now we've just considered Big Road successions (second degree cluster steps > than higher counterparts), what about common derived road lines?

What about other betting plans?

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 23, 2022, 12:20:19 AM
If we want to test the effectiveness of our idea, we should make a lot of experiments.
The purpose of experimentation is not to convince other people but first to convince ourselves. (Galileo).


I'll meekly add to that: 'providing we make experiments under the most replicable conditions we'll meet at the real tables'.

Dice controllers do not test their ability by tossing cubes into a 3 ft felt (al least not eventually) or using Monopoly dice.
Even at black jack some literature has shown that the mere 'high/low cards' parameter could be misleading, so more depending upon how are really shuffled the cards.

Imo, before testing several thoughts should be made when thinking to try to beat baccarat.

1- beside side bets and anyway with many caveats, pc simulated shoes are worthless. We need real phisically shuffled shoes to test our ideas.
I know it's a way faster process to collect data from pc than from a real source, but we have to understand that we'll risk our money at real tables and not at 'simulated' situations, no matter how's sophisticated the software employed.

2- Live shoes are surely affected by a 'bias' of some kind. Even if we do not know the precise directions this bias will take (almost always splitted into sub sequences), such factor will produce a sort of 'asymmetrical' world where a number of some 'expected' situations will come out unproportionally with the number of 'unexpected' events.
Sh.i.t (or heaven) comes in clusters, therefore as long term winning players we must rely upon the remaining non sh.i.t or non heaven world constituting the vast majority of the outcomes.
We already know the importance of setting up numerous 'limited random walks' to bypass such problem.

3- A 'simple' pattern as one single or a double or a 11 streak means nothing.
Instead, we should be interested about the back-to-back probability of getting something, being more expected or not by assessing the actual 'cluster' ratio that will be surely unbalanced in some sections of the shoe.
Sometimes the 'unbalancement' patterns ratio will be too tiny to be exploited but this is the exception and not the rule.
After all gambling is just a 'streaks' issue otherwise progressive plans would have destroyed it the day after its invention.

4- Derived roads do confirm the non real randomness of the bac outcomes (or at least they tend to amplify the baccarat flaws we're talking about), so I'll invite you to register each live shoe under the common four registration lines (BR, byb, sr and cr).
Just the BR must be classified as to instanly get all derived roads you could use a free software by googling 'baccarat scoreboard' working very well on your cell phones.

Notice that no one registration line will be superior to another one (albeit giving slight different long term results), yet by examining four different lines we're simply amplifying the number of betting spots (with the downside of crossing through some colliding spots).

oOoOo

In some way we should compare baccarat to black jack with important favourable features working for us:

- no need to bet anything (or worth) unless we'd think to be advantaged;

- black jack is a one-side bettable game but baccarat is a two-side bettable game;

- the 'no entry at mid shoe' rule doesn't apply at baccarat;

- baccarat scholars are considered by both mathematicians and casinos as pure clowns, that is sure losers.

It's funny that casinos are more worried by facing a sudden $60 bj bet placed by a $20 standard player than a $10.000 occasional wager made by a railbird fellow.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 23, 2022, 01:10:56 AM
Here another real live shoes data regarding the same plan I was referring to in my above posts.

First order cluster spots got 1974 winning situations and 632 losing spots (632 x 3 = 1896) that is a 1.04 WL ratio.
Again a too tiny shifted ratio to get the best of it.

Second order cluster spots got 445 winning spots and 103 losing spots (103x3=309) that is a 1.44 W/L ratio.

Even though such samples are quite small under the 'math' lens, definitely and so far there's a strong 'relative' propensity that second order cluster spots move around a kind of a way better probability of success not following general values applied to a coin flip model (we did bet B or P regardless of the B general math edge).

In some way we may conclude that the more we are waiting for certain 'more probable' patterns to show up, greater will be our probability of success capable to erase and invert to our favor the EV.

Btw, WARS ARE PROVED TO NEVER EVER BE AN ANSWER TO SOLVE PROBLEMS. MOST OF THE TIMES WARS BACKFIRE TO THOSE STARTING THEM.


as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: klw on March 23, 2022, 09:40:16 PM
Hi As -- That link takes you to a page of other links of which none look like yours ??

Cheers.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 27, 2022, 12:52:33 PM
Thanks klw!

Here's the link I was referring to:


https://www.koreascience.or.kr/article/JAKO201208040009207.pdf?msclkid=7a459b53ac4011ec901c1c5de08abc42


as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: klw on March 27, 2022, 08:19:17 PM
Thank you .
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 27, 2022, 11:27:29 PM
In this interesting paper the only (partial) positive conclusion for bac players is restricted into this passage:
The only possible winning strategy is to catch the trend(either the Player or the Banker) and to bet on that side.

Next let's see this passage:  This implies almost independence of the game in
probability. Therefore the previous outcomes have no effect to the next outcome. In theory, it is
meaningless to decide which side to bet on according to the outcome sheet.


Another passage I've found interesting is this:
The simulation results are shown in Table 9. Compare Plan 4 with Plan 3, we note that the 'follow'
method seems to be better than the 'alternative' method, because all the losing game probabilities are
relatively smaller for the 'follow' method.


Then this: Note that the random walk is a typical nonstationary stochastic process. Every random walk
wanders away from the origin and is never guaranteed to return to the origin.


Our comments.

Not surprisingly this paper confirms that baccarat is an EV- game for players. Nonetheless authors have found that some strategies are less worse than others beside the fkng old 'better betting B than P' statement, also leaving a potential minuscule possibility to set up a strategy based upon exploitable 'trends' of some kind. 

We hugely respect such statistical experts, yet as pure empirical 'practitioners' we dare to make some considerations.

First important feature to look at is that such paper was based upon 'simulated' results and not over real ones.
Naturally we can't take only the possible minuscule good parts of this study and ignoring and just arguing about the global negative conclusion.
Anyway we've seen that at simulated 'random shoes' the 'follow method' tend to performs better than the 'alternative method'.
Notice that this finding totally collides with the old and verified very slight propensity to get the opposite outcome already happened.     
In our opinion the truth stays in the middle, not necessarily merging into a 'neutral' zone. (see later).

Secondly, this study examined just B and P successions, not classified by more 'complex' patterns, especially into the back-to-back form.

Third, we've collected valid reasons to doubt that in every scenario previous outcomes won't affect in some way the next results. At least such negation of 'place selection' supposedly indipendence works at live shoes data.

Fourth, we totally disagree about this study's conclusion:

'Every random walk wanders away from the origin and is never guaranteed to return to the origin.

That's true only whenever we're considering an independent and random source of results or at least over a simple BP successions examined at both simulated and real live shoes samples, but not at more complex baccarat patterns happening at real live situations.

Imo, it's the main mistake almost every scientist had made when studying baccarat (along with the fatal error to consider simulated shoes as the same as real live shoes).

Average shoe's card distribution is way more sensitive about 'complex patterns' successions than about mere B or P hands.

Theoretically complex patterns still belong to the 'random walks' category but in reality they work under a sort of 'conditional probability' where (depending upon the bet selection utilized) they either are proved to roam around the 0 cutoff or even better to take a long term univocal direction being well greater than the common B>P math propensity.

Main answers to that assumption?

First, the average key cards distribution being surely asymmetrical up to some level and for some sections of the shoe.

Second lower level, math two-card advantaged situations not involving key cards but getting an edge more often than not.  And of course even such feature will be asymmetrically placed. Up to a point.

Third level, asym hands math favoring B side. Differently to the two above factors, we know that on average this parameter will strongly shift the results just 8.6% of the times.

If we'd assemble such factors into a whole scheme, we'll see that itlr 'complex' patterns will tend to follow more probable back-to-back values.

After all, we can't think about a card distribution placing ALL key cards to one side for the etnire lenght of the shoe, not mentionting that such key cards must combine with valuable cards to provide a worth result (most of the times a zero value card).

Then it's impossible that a shoe will present univocal winning long streaks of two-card math favored higher points.

Finally, asym hands apparition per each shoe is well restricted into finite terms and of course very few shoes will get ALL asym hands to win after a third card is dealt to the Player side.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 30, 2022, 01:18:10 AM
Patterns

The baccarat invulnerability relies upon the fact that it's impossible to 'restrict' the variance terms of the results, meaning that anything could happen anytime and anywhere.
In statistical terms this means that the 'improbable', even though being carefully calculated, will surely happen providing to get a fair amount of trials.
So after an 'infinite' amount of shoes we'll surely face an all B or P hand shoe or a whole BP chopping shoe or, well more likely, a whole 'streaky' shoe without any single showing up. (Btw, we have crossed through this last situation more than once). 

Anyway to get an idea about how's unlikely to get some 'negative' patterns for long, consider this simple mechanical and progressive betting plan.

Notice that we're not saying it's a sure way to beat baccarat, just that these random walks will disrespect the unbeatable features belonging to a typical random walk as they are more prone to roam around the 0 point or taking a given univocal direction (no matter which side we'll bet at).

Our random walk #1 will bet toward singles and doubles after any 3+ streak happened (that is any 3 or 3+ streak happening at either side), so 'hoping' that such streak will come out more isolated than clustered or that 'isolated' streaks will come out more clustered than isolated (see later).
If any 3+ streak comes out clustered (back-to-back) we simply stop our betting, waiting for another 3+ streak occurrence.

Beside the obvious first-step progressive betting scheme after a single apparition was missed (otherwise a second winning Banker bet would get us losers for the vig), we'll raise our standard bet in two occasions:
- after a winning bet in either one of the two steps (at least up to the point to erase a previous deficit) and
- after a single losing two-step bet.

No need to try to erase a previous deficit too fast, it's casinos' hope to know that sometimes sh.i.t happens for long (in either way), let shoes to be dealt and those random walks cannot get negative values too distant from the 0 point.
Obviously we should consider that every bet will be burdened by a math EV- return.

Then our random walk #2 is more patient as it'll act just when two 3+ consecutive streaks had happened, the same target being singles and/or doubles.
Same progressive features to be utilized.

Actual long term results of such plan at real live shoes

Both random walks #1 and #2 get a common 'enemy': that is series of three or more consecutive 3+ streaks.
Actually those situations will surely come out but they cannot neglect for long the more likely propensity to show up as isolated as an average live card distribution (being dependent of the previous results and surely finite) will make some limits over their back-to-back apparition at the same shoe.

If you'd test a relatively large sample of live shoes, you'll see that, more often than not, just one of the two random walks will take a decisive positive line as 'complex' patterns will take a huge amount of trials to show up a possible propensity working at both random walks.

Is this big.horn.stuff stuff as many fkng mathematicians will surely bet their as..ses upon?

Ok, so let's take the casino's part.

A sky's the limit progressive player will first bet that A (a+b) will be more likely than B (c) by wagering that A-A and B-A will be more likely to show up than A-B and B-B. (Of course from a theorical point of view a+b=c).
So casino must hope results will take a c clustered line.

But say the same player had noticed that A is more likely to come out by rarer B clusters of two that seem to be prevalent than isolated B (so c>a+b but c-c<a+b) , so now casino must hope to get c-c-c clustered patterns than c-c spots distributed by more likely lines.
Hence this player wouldn't give a fk about random walk #1, just more focusing about his/her higher bets by following random walk #2. 

Now this casino should hope to deal shoes presenting a lot of either A-B or B-B spots (r.w. #1) or B-B-B spots in a row not intervaled by more likely B-B-A patterns (r.w. #2).

BTW, it's a sure long term finding that the more 3+s streaks are clustered, better are the odds to cross through single/double patterns in the remaining part of the shoe.

A thing we'll look at the next week.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on March 30, 2022, 02:14:08 AM
And with great insight....." The baccarat invulnerability relies upon the fact that it's impossible to 'restrict' the variance terms of the results, meaning that anything could happen anytime and anywhere.  In statistical terms this means that the 'improbable', even though being carefully calculated, will surely happen providing to get a fair amount of trials.

So after an 'infinite' amount of shoes we'll surely face an all B or P hand shoe or a whole BP chopping shoe or, well more likely, a whole 'streaky' shoe without any single showing up. (Btw, we have crossed through this last situation more than once)."

And so many will never realize what you said in the above. 

How does one win?  Well, you have to realize what is being presented as well as that the improbable just might be sheer reality.  But when that reality appears, normally you will just here, "WOW can't believe that" or "I've never seen that before" etc.

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on April 01, 2022, 10:24:41 PM
False Positives & Their Dangers to the Player and Chance.  Fueling Your Losses With Reason.

When wagering on baccarat and you fail to think, think clear, think absolutely clear, think with neutralism, think with purpose, think with the greatest concentration, we will get reinforced with the wrong way to play baccarat.  It happens quick, really quick?so be warned and be conscious of that all of the time.  It is not easy, but you do not want the false positives in your game.  And that is exactly what you will get if you cannot define and be absolutely diligent about your thinking.

There are numerous false positives offering themselves continually within the game of baccarat.  Very dangerous, extremely dangerous to the gullible, inexperienced and player that easily gets sidetracked or is dependent upon something he needs to find to at least think, is tangible to wager because of.  Also, most all players after a while will begin some kind of research into the game.  This takes on several different kinds of research areas.

1)   History of the Game. Different message boards and forums about baccarat and table games.  General and older written articles from various sources.  Media articles about the infamous, the famous, the legendary, etc., gamblers with their large losses and large wins.

2)   Mathematical & Statistical. Message boards, forums, websites and other published material online relating to the same.  The written books one happens to purchase, borrow or locate somewhere.  The attempted application and comparison of these to the game itself as played by the person.

3)   Probability, Chance & Other Things.  And other things of a similar Se-Scheduled nature and their counterparts including other areas of interest to those also.  The same as #2 above.  Once again, the attempted application of those will only lead you to False-Positives, that far outweigh any type of consistent wagering that will award you winning set-scheduled wagering greater than 50% of any time you play. 

4)   Superstition & Methodology. And other things of a similar nature that you convince yourself will allow you to win wagers because of phenomenon, certain events or any other type of presentment capitalization of luck or predication with the danger of conversion within your brain that allows to justify changing just what those were to skill.  Very very dangerous.

5)  Convincing Yourself of Something Guaranteed.   No matter what it is.  Flat betting, wagering after such and such happens or did not happen.  A strict adherence to O.L.D. or W.L.D. or anyone of the other 10-20 rock-solid good wagers to follows as written about, posted and dwelled over anywhere on the internet message boards, forums, websites, paid sites, etc.  Along with the many other gamblers fallacies of Cuts, Trends, Triggers, Patterns, Clusters, Clumps, etc.  Or, just Hog-Wild, I am on a hot run and nothing can or will stop me and ultimately and with great consistent repetitiveness, give it back each and every single session, because you do not believe there are plateaus and levels that control you and what you have the ability to guide yourself through while wagering at the game of baccarat. 

The belief in any or all the above will always provide false positives that will not benefit the player in actual play of any serious kind or more importantly in any serious consistency whatsoever.  What is even worse, is the few positive wins produced by following on any of those things will produce greater and greater influential false-positives because of the great quest for finding the unknown and secretive holy-grail, etc. 
 
Here, let me sum it up---at least on a mathematical and my statistical aspect converted to gambling.  Two paragraphs worth, with a sample visual curve, will save you from getting sucked in a dead-end path that will cause you complete bank roll failure.  If you will take my advice.  But hey---it is your money.   :glasses:

1)   (First Paragraph).  The reason it will lead to failure, is because baccarat can and will do completely different presentments with no rhyme or reason, both mathematically and statistically, as well as complete randomness with no regards to scheduling and order correlating to events within the shoe you are sitting in front of;

2) (Second Paragraph).  Unlike elaborating, which Abraham de Moivre, Doctrine of Chances founded; The same arguments which explode the Nation of Luck may, on the other side, be useful in some cases to establish a due comparison between chances and design.  We may imagine chance and design to be as it were in competition with each other to produce some sorts of events, and may calculate what probability there is, that those events should be rather owing to one then to the other.

One trial and then scale up, putting an (X) where we expect to find our answer and takes the most general form of the problem; If something can happen with probability (A), or can not happen probably (B), in each of the (X) trials, then we can say, putting the power law in to general terms, that the chance of it not happening in every trial or even a cluster or a clump is; The number of trials where the chance will not happen and everything else is deduced down from that.

Because the possibilities of defining when presentments will appear anywhere from 1-80 hands will show up in the exact order and time you have scheduled your wager repeatedly for several wagers; Out of quadrillions of possibilities, it is impossible to do with definitive and concrete adherence by the shoe.  By the way, quadrillions is greater than 999 trillion times.

Unlike the ability to measure a curve to see what fraction of an area between start and midpoint and points in-between will become finite in their outcomes, the baccarat shoe cannot be measured in the same way or any other way that will allow you with finite guaranteed wins. 






Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on April 04, 2022, 03:04:24 AM
Thanks for this post Alrelax.

I pause at your final passage:
Unlike the ability to measure a curve to see what fraction of an area between start and midpoint and points in-between will become finite in their outcomes, the baccarat shoe cannot be measured in the same way or any other way that will allow you with finite guaranteed wins.


For most part this reasoning is correct but we know that some statistical limitations continuosly work at baccarat shoes.
The same way it's virually impossible to get 37 different numbers after a 37 spin cycle at roulette, we can safely discard from the baccarat possibilities many patterns or situations.

This thing becomes more important, imo, whether we've decided to collect into the same category different classes of results.
So 1 remains 1, 2 remains 2 but 3 could be 3, 7, 26 or a greater number, yet it should be still considered as a 3.
Naturally there's a different impact over the expected probabilities if in the actual shoe a streak of 10 or 15 had shown up as it 'consumes' quite space to get other more likely patterns to happen.

Going back to my last post, say we are driving a car capable to overcome with agility 1 and 2 steps but someway 'crashing' whenever a 3 step shows up. The aim is to run as far as possibile at the same time losing the least amount of cars.
In fact we have numerous cars to travel with, of course not knowing precisely how many 1,2 and 3 steps will present our road (shoe).

So before making such hazardous trip (or better sayed, a kind of 'infinite' series of those trips) we need to somewhat estimate   how many 1,2,3 steps any road will present on average, so influencing either the number of cars we should utilize and the average lenght of our 'safe' drives getting the least possible amount of 'crashed' cars.

Actually it would be a child's play to make assessments if itlr 1+2 steps >3 steps, unfortunately 1+2=3.

But since 3 is a three times more unlikely scenario than 1+2, we better focus about the 3 average probability distribution as people making a living about numbers rely upon the probability that something less likely won't happen for long. Of course also knowing that sooner or later unlikely scenarios will surely happen.

Now we have two different opposite options to set up our plan about:

- hoping that sooner or later a relative high unlikely scenario will happen;

- hoping that a relative low unlikely scenario (3s) remains as silent as possibile.

Both options surely follow a kind of 'clustered'/'diluted' strenght as a card distribution cannot be symmetrically placed by any means.

First let's examine the 'low unlikely scenario', that is 3s happening on average about any shoe dealt.
At 8-deck shoes the average probability 3s will show up is around 9.5 per shoe.
If we'd assume that any shoe dealt will produce an average number of 28-30 columns, we'll see that the 1:3 general percentage is respected. More importantly, relative sd values will be way more restricted than at a pure independent symmetrical game.

I mean that under certain conditions, along any shoe dealt the probabiilty to get a more probable class of events is very very close to 1. That is the almost absolute certainty that a given event will happen.
After all and assuming 28-30 columns, a 0.25 probability cannot happen clustered for long and consecutively and at the same time not giving the proper room to get 0.75 probability events to show up clustered at some level (or, in the most very unfortunate scenario, to show up at least once after a 'fresh' new 3 had come out).

'Relatively high unlikely scenario' wonderfully perform at some side bets plays.

Say you want to play at the Dragon Bonus bet where a given gap of winning points matters (being payed 1:1, 2:1, 4:1, 6:1, 8:1, 10:1 and 30:1).
Of course only an id.iot would bet the Banker side Dragon Bonus (sadly too many players like to bet this side), thus only Player side DB should be wagered.
Classifiy Player winning results under the 1-2-3 gap point classes vs superior gap points (those getting a DB win), ignoring naturals (half of them will be winners anyway).
After a given series of 'isolated' DB Player results, progressively bet toward getting 'clustered' DB events, providing you think that for some reasons Player side will be more entitled to win.
It's not a coincidence that at HS rooms such side bet isn't offered at all.

Tiger bet

No commission tables where B winning hands by a 6 point are payed 1:2 are faster to be dealt and the HE raises from 1.06/1.24% to 1.46%/1.24%. (So the less worse bet at those tables is wagering P).
Notice that as long as B won't show an initial 6 point, betting Banker will get the player an enormous math advantage.
Of course a relatively small portion of hands not belonging to an initial two-card B 6 point and getting B side to win by a final 6 point will lower such possible advantage.

Anyway, at a 8-deck shoe on average Tiger bet will show up nearly 5 times. Two card B winning 6 points are payed 12:1 and three card B winning 6 points are payed 20:1.
This bet is so relatively probable that we could even make a kind of 'sky's the limit' side approach.
Anytime a Tiger bet shows up, we could just bet three times to get the same Tiger bet to appear again by adopting a progressive plan.
I know it's a unsound math move, but I'll invite you to test your shoes and see what happens.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on April 04, 2022, 03:57:45 AM
The limitations are within each person playing.

As I said in #5 of the above post I made:  " 5)  Convincing Yourself of Something Guaranteed.   No matter what it is.  Flat betting, wagering after such and such happens or did not happen.  A strict adherence to O.L.D. or W.L.D. or anyone of the other 10-20 rock-solid good wagers to follows as written about, posted and dwelled over anywhere on the internet message boards, forums, websites, paid sites, etc.  Along with the many other gamblers fallacies of Cuts, Trends, Triggers, Patterns, Clusters, Clumps, etc.  Or, just Hog-Wild, I am on a hot run and nothing can or will stop me and ultimately and with great consistent repetitiveness, give it back each and every single session, because you do not believe there are plateaus and levels that control you and what you have the ability to guide yourself through while wagering at the game of baccarat. "

Think about it.  Figure out what controls you at the table.  I have.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on April 06, 2022, 12:14:04 AM
Thanks Al for your reply.
You gave me the input to expand my idea. 

First, we should ask to ourselves whether baccarat is a completely random independent succession, I mean random outcomes without any possible bias we could exploit in some manner.
If the answer is YES, we better change the game to play at.

In fact those thinking that progressive plans alone will make the best of it at a pure random succession (even if it would be a fair 1:1 proposition as a coin flip is) are just fooling themselves and giving false hopes.
The only possible exception to think that a random game would be beatable in some way is whenever long term data had shown that some selected events wagered have produced low sd values, so possibly attackable by a careful progressive multilayered scheme.
By statistical terms, it's like that instead of getting a classical normal distribution we have found a kind of Cauchy distribution.

So if the sample examined is quite large, it's 1 quadrillion percent certain that pure random successions cannot give the player any minuscule probability to get the best of it.
If anyone thinks otherwise he/she should be entitled to present his/her strategic plan to MIT. 
Notice that some progressive plans (but also flat betting strategies) could shape positive lines for 'long', but this is just a temporary 'random' coincidence as even at random events the improbable will happen.

Second, if baccarat outcomes are not so 'randomly' and 'independently' dealt (and this is the only fkng option we could rely upon in order to beat the game itlr), that is a kind of exploitable bias happens, we must choose what will be the best course of action to take.

a) Trying to adhere at most at what the 'biased' shoe is presenting, a wonderful theorical thing to look at.
After all the vast majority of bac players adopt this strategy (and filling the casinos pockets).
Unfortunately most bac players haven't measured their EV, because it's just sufficient to check few hundreds of shoes to understand that under normal circumstances this strategy is a sure loser.
In reality and whenever a player likes to bet many bets per shoe (by the fear of missing something 'good'), just a 3-4 shoe mere sample confirms the low probability to be ahead.
Of course 'progressive plans' dilute the problem not solving it.
Nevertheless we can't rule out the (distant) possibility that 'experienced players' or keen scholars have found out that a low amount of bets made on supposedly favourable situations will get them the best of it.   


b) Every bac shoe dealt is affected by a kind of bias cumulatively merging into univocal 'mechanically devised' patterns giving distribution curves progressively shifted to one direction that has nothing to share with the B>P propensity.
Those are 'limited random walks' that without any doubt and giving the lesser sh.it about B>P asymmetry will get more probable lines than what a 50.68/49.32 strict model will dictate.

In reality such 'more probable' lines (so giving an edge by a mere flat betting scheme, the only one to guarantee a long term advantage) will be whimsically distributed as we cannot know the actual 'bias' level acting at our shoe.
Anyway a possible bias must act well more likely at consecutive (0-gap) or 1-gap or 2-gap situations; anytime those cutoff values are surpassed, we are simply not interested to chase it.

c) a mix of the above two approaches.

If it's proven to be worthless a kind of 'adhering strategy', it'll be more dangerous to set up a strategy oriented to stop given lines happening at the actual shoe, even if they are strongly disappointing your long term data.
Imo the better approach stays in the middle.

For example and simplyfing the issue a lot, only an id.io.t could hope to get a P 3+ streak after a shoe presented only P singles and doubles, after a quite amount of shoes all presenting only P singles and doubles happen quite often.
At the same token, it's a kind of bighorn.sh.it strategy to hope that B side will get some B streaks after many B singles happened.

oOoOo

There's no way to beat this game by betting many bets per shoe, anyway I've collected different strategies of serious HS players wagering a lot of hands, so next week I'll try to condense such different ways of thought into an univocal line by considering a hand-by-hand process made at real live HS shoes.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on April 08, 2022, 01:36:31 PM
Notes to the above from actual experience over years of B & M play.

P streaks and 'stronger' P than B is by far appearing with greater consistency then the B streaks and B 'stronger' in excess of a shoe here and there, or should we say 'consistently' while playing day in and day out, etc.

Reference "beat the game by betting many bets per shoe".  What so so many just never learn or realize, it is much better to bet larger, harder and more serious while limiting the sections we engage in BY FAR!  But not always easy to do.  Seriously.

The bias level will come and go, shoe by shoe, trip by trip.  P >bias, P <bias, B >bias and B <bias.  TRUE, but the 'trick' is to get the spot the other side attempts the instant comeback without being biased by YOUR OWN THOUGHTS, IDEAS, AGENDAS and EXPERIENCES, ETC.   Again no so easy to do.  Think about it.

'Random' Coincidence (define).   IMO it is:  'improbable' will happen—does all the time and often to the 'I can't believes' and the 'oh wow look at that, wows'.  Couple the 'exploitable' bias in along with the 'improbable'.  "We must choose what will be the best course of action to take".  Absolutely hands down!  Merge and side with instead of fighting against, what so so many players cannot seem to accomplish. 

You can't always adhere to your own terms and understanding of what the shoe is presenting (blaming in on the cards, the table, the dealer, the pit people, other players, the particular casino, etc.). And that in itself is super valuable if you can use it simply to your insight properly.  Not improperly as almost all do by blaming a non related cause such as I gave examples of in the parenthesis above. 

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on April 09, 2022, 02:50:12 PM
Alrelax in reply 556 above:
"...Reference "beat the game by betting many bets per shoe".  What so so many just never learn or realize, it is much better to bet larger, harder and more serious while limiting the sections we engage in BY FAR!  But not always easy to do.  Seriously.

The bias level will come and go, shoe by shoe, trip by trip.  P >bias, P <bias, B >bias and B <bias.  TRUE, but the 'trick' is to get the spot the other side attempts the instant comeback without being biased by YOUR OWN THOUGHTS, IDEAS, AGENDAS and EXPERIENCES, ETC.   Again no so easy to do.  Think about it. ..."


Perfectly worded/I agree 100%.  :nod:

All the best,kfb


Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on April 11, 2022, 12:06:24 AM
Al wrote The limitations are within each person playing.

This statement is very interesting to be commented, we'll see it in a couple of days.

as.



Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on April 11, 2022, 01:36:56 PM
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on April 11, 2022, 12:06:24 AM
Al wrote The limitations are within each person playing.

This statement is very interesting to be commented, we'll see it in a couple of days.

as.

I saw it last night, I will attempt to put it into words.  Possibly it can help a few.  Will post later tonight.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on April 13, 2022, 12:47:47 AM
Not all A/B patterns are equal

We know that without an edge of some kind we are not going anywhere; an infinite bankroll could dilute or getting no effect on the risk of ruin, anyway we're not going to win.
But since we play to win (thus we have verified a possible edge working for us) we should assess how much we want to risk, that is how long our strategy could endure the inevitable losing situations happening along the way, at the same maximizing at most our probability of winning.

Value of the positive edge assessed, there are some formulas dictating the best fractions of our bankroll to be bet, yet baccarat is a very volatile game mainly as, imo, many shoes are not properly shuffled.

We have learnt that on average baccarat is a 'biased' world performing various and heterogeneous levels of 'confidence'.

We have taken for grant that if A=B, A1>B1 and A2>B2 (and so on but the probability that A3, A4... isn't practically exploitable), meaning that superior than A levels of probability follow values not belonging to a normal distribution curve, simply put that itlr some patterns are slight more likely than others. (A thing not belonging to the mere Banker math propensity of course).

So an A or B betting model is unbeatable by definition, only A1 and A2 models could be beaten as itlr both are getting more wins than the B1 and B2 respective counterparts.

Now a question should arise: is it better to bet toward A1 vs B1 or A2 vs B2 (or both)? What about our betting amount?

It's obvious that per every shoe dealt a bias cannot constantly act at both more probable lines, one line will be more favoured to get clustered wins than the counterpart. Not mentioning that A2 line (albeit being more 'precise') needs more room to come out.
And in fact and even knowing that both lines will get a EV+ play itlr, long term data show that whenever one line will get a fair amount of winning spots, the other favourable line will present more losses than wins or at best an equal W/L ratio. (And vice versa).
The old as the hills 'clustering effect' working.

Say one shoe is:

A1, A1, A1, A3, A1, A1.

By applying the well known 1:3 ratio, wagering the A1 line will get +2 units (before vig) and wagering the A2 line will get 3 units loss.
I mean that A2 line bettors will need three subsequent wins (A2, A2, A2) to balance the previous deficit.
By betting both A1 and A2 lines we'll get a cumulative  -1 unit loss.

Now a shoe went as:

A2, A1, A2, A1, A1.

Now A1 line bettors got a -3 unit loss but A2 bettors got a +2 profit (minus vig).
Overall both lines produced a -1 unit loss (plus vig).

Of course there will be 'unlikely' shoes like this:

A1, A3, A3, A1.

A1 betting line got -4 unit loss and A2 betting line a -6 unit loss. A 'disaster' cumulative -10 unit loss.

So it's just about the general probability to face such shoes, notice that by considering a 'clustering effect' the last horrible shoe got one loss at A1 betting line and zero losses at A2 line. That is a cumulative -3 unit loss (way better than a -10 unit loss).

You can argue about those other events not belonging to A1, A2 and A3 scenarios.
Good news is that all those events are winning situations, so different than A but not sufficient to belong to A1 category. (say we name them as A-x).

Since it's very very unlikely to face a shoe producing more than two A3 situations, we know that most bac results belong to the A-x, A1 and A2 situations with some rare A3 spots happening along the way. And obviously not proportionally distributed by the A-x + A1 + A2 = A3 equation.

Actually when testing your shoes you'll be somewhat bored to look for the A3-A3 distribution that you begin to think as them as 'very unlikely scenarios'.

After all at baccarat there no other ways to look other than for more probable lines to be clustered or happening after a single opposite less likely situation happened.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on April 18, 2022, 12:25:00 AM
Clusters, clustered patterns and clustered 'destiny'

We can arrange an A/B model into infinite ways then clusters will happen, actually they MUST happen.
And in reality clusters are the reason why we lose, as a constant 'low level' of clustering effect will be easily beatable by progressively wagering toward non clustered results.

But at the same time clusters might be the way to look for in order to win itlr. Again, if clusters would be so constant in their appearance and consistency, baccarat (and some other games) wouldn't exist at all.

Now the problem is: is it better to set up a plan about non clustered or clustered events and what's the level we should start and stop the wagering to get the most profitability (or, at worst, the least negative impact)?

First, a wide definition of 'cluster' is everything that comes out by repeating the already happened same outcome, so we do not need 5, 8 or 15 repetitive events to classify a 'cluster', thus just one back-to-back appearance of the same result or class of results belong to this definition.
Good news is that every shoe dealt in the universe will present several one-level clusters, some 2-level clusters and other relatively less likely superior situations.
For one moment say we are not interested about what should be more likely to happen, just that actual results should take a kind of clustered line at various levels.

Second, some different betting lines could collide into getting opposite clustered (CL) or non clustered (NCL) events, so a searched result could be a winning or a losing one depending upon which line we've decided to take.
Yet, if a given CL line is surely going to happen (always in relationship of its general probability to show up), we can guess that a CL-CL apparition will be slight more likely than a CL-NCL line.
Of course even a NCL line could get its share of clustering effect, again splitted into more likely levels.

Third, virtually there are infinite ways to consider events by CL or NCL situations.
Think about single/double vs 3+ streak successions, unb plan #1 or #2, bac codes and many others strategic plans not presented here.

Not talking about the common three derived roads where a CL effect tends to overcome a NCL factor.

What imo is important to understand is that people making a living at this game will try to get the least level of profitable clustering effect happening along every shoe dealt, that is 1.
Of course after having assessed that such CL effect went 'silent' (so bypassing that 1 cutoff level) for some intervals.

It's like that no matter the bet selection, a 0 level of CL factor (no clustered patterns) cannot act for long independently of how's 'more likely' some patterns should be generally prevalent over the counterpart.

Think about this: a HS player will hope that CL events will happen for long by a 'sky's the limit' feature.
Nothing wrong about that, unfortunately this is just a short term hope.
Another HS player will hope that CL events will happen more frequently by whimsical levels but by a degree different than 0, in a word hoping that certain events will be clustered by a level greater than 0 and up to 1, so they need just one positive step to be right.

Math edge and the 'rule' is to expect both players to be broke, in reality the second player will constantly make a 'unnoticed' small dent at casinos' bankroll, mostly as he/she's willing to  bet a way lesser amount of wagered hands, then by knowing precisely what to look for.
Many times getting valuable hints by simply evaluating the first players betting destiny, being invariably oriented toward a losing line more often than not.
A thing we'll see in a couple of days.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on April 20, 2022, 12:16:43 AM
Clustered destiny

We've already seen that no matter the strategy utilized' long hopping WL lines will be slight less probable than long clustered W or L patterns.
It's true that considering B=W and P=L or vice versa, BP hopping patterns are quite likely to show up, but in some way this is not a pure WL hopping line but just a clustered scenario. (Of course B/P is not a symmetrical probability model).
After all whenever a BP chopping line surpass a cutoff value, all derived roads will present univocal red spot streaks.
Technically and ignoring the very initial part of the shoe, a BP chopping pattern equal or superior than 6 will get ALL derived roads to form red streaks.

Therefore the winning or losing process moves slight more likely around W and L clusters of different lenght.

We can 'extremes' such statement by considering that W or L clusters will more likely move around sub classes of Wcl-Wcl classes and Lcl-Lcl classes, each corresponding by a precise value (1, 2, 3 and so on).

The important thing to remember is that itlr WL patterns vs WW or LL patterns are slight less likely to show up in way or another.
I mean that the probability to get, say a 8 WL or LW straight situation, will be slight less likely than to get a straight 8 W or L event.
With all the consequences to get the other 252/256 remaining patterns not belonging to the constant WL or LW or WW or LL lines.

Simplifying, if after 8 wagered hands tha probability to get WWWWWWWW or LLLLLLLL patterns will be slight superior than to face a WLWLWLWL or LWLWLWLW, so the other inferior possible patterns will be somewhat affected by a kind of 'clustering' effect.

Since we are talking about WL events and not necessarily about strict mechanical betting strategies, we may enlarge the field of operations by setting up as 'targets' some other players' destiny.

I know that this could sound as a unscientific strategy, anyway it works wonderfully in practice.

Alrelax is so true about the importance of focusing about actual results and not about 'what should be more likely to happen'.
Furthermore, most bac players like not to 'adhere' about what's happening or hoping too much that a given pattern will stand for long (that is forming long clustered patterns), most of the times when such players are losing so desperately trying to break even shortly.

In some way I'm meaning that individual player's or players' destiny are more likely to follow the above statement (so presenting valuable spots to bet at), no matter how smart and prepared we are.
And of course our personal destiny won't make any exception to that.

Examples.

Probability that a given losing player will get prompt consecutive wins is very low, if such player experienced quite long losing clusters, winning clusters counterpart move more likely about low or moderate clustered patterns at best.
In fact most part of losing players try to break even by forcing W clustered situations to happen shortly.
I'd say that in general circumstances for those losing players the probability to get an immediate four winning pattern is 1:16 but it seems to be quite lower than that.
Notice the adverb 'immediately'.

More intriguing is the probability to encounter a 'targeted' player getting many WL situations that of course cannot last for long, so more likely taking a W or L line.
Naturally even if this relatively improbable WL course seems to act, we'll bet just one hand for any couple of hands are dealt.

Then there are the so called 'lucky players' capable to guess an astounding amount of hands, a class splitted into two categories:

a- players getting the best of those univocal patterns happening (streaky shoes, predominant one-sided shoes), so wagering a lot of hands;

b- players that seem to be right at 'selected' wagered spots. Those are the more interesting to follow, especially if they bet huge amount of money.

Maybe both are getting the best of a fluke, have we reasons to try to stop those flows?

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on April 23, 2022, 05:11:26 AM
Hi all
AsymBacGuy I find your above essay (cluster destiny) interesting. I agree for the most part, however, Im not sure how applicable in real time(i.e., before the streak or non streak have started presenting). That is, to catch ALL of the shorter-length clusters such as WW or WWW wouldn't we need to wager almost every hand?

re your sentence: "...The important thing to remember is that itlr WL patterns vs WW or LL patterns are slight less likely to show up in way or another.   ..."
     Q1 Do you feel the same for patterns such as WLL as  pbb or bpp  are slight less likely to show  VS  a WWW or LLL as ppp or bbb ? What about a 4iar series in the same comparison?

ASymBacGuy: "Probability that a given losing player will get prompt consecutive wins is very low, if such player experienced quite long losing clusters, winning clusters counterpart move more likely about low or moderate clustered patterns at best...."

     Can you elaborate a little more on this as Im not clear? Thx

Continued Success,

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on April 24, 2022, 11:48:00 PM
Hi KFB! Thanks for your interest.

Q1/A1: My thought about baccarat is focused about the 'actual card distribution' and not about B/P patterns.
Well, B/P baccarat streaks are shorter than a random 50/50 proposition and the asymmetrical math force will slightly shift the results, but both features are too whimsically distributed to be exploited.
Therefore, imo, Ws and Ls must be assessed about the 'average' and 'actual' probability of those patterns that are more likely to show up.
Since a perfect 'balanced' patterns world happening at each section of the shoe is out of question, we should investigate when a given pattern will take the transitory 'lead' over the counterpart in either W or L way.
Naturally we can't know precisely how many unbalanced patterns will happen at every shoe dealt, let alone about their lenght.
Yet we may estimate the probability to show up at least one time or, better, the probability to produce an average amount of W situations.
Notice that we do not necessarily need a W>L ratio to be long term winners, just to evaluate when a W cluster is more likely to show up in a way or another. (See later). 

Q2/A2: since baccarat outcomes are more likely distributed along unsteady 'unbalanced' lines, it's quite improbable that after a long losing sequence a specular winning succession will come out.
Tricks to lower such feature by adopting a progressive plan almost always lead to an eventual disaster.

Best way to think that such loss will be balanced by a proportional winning amount is to let many shoes to come out, hoping that a plan will slowly get its due proportional share of wins.
If every HS bac player would adhere to this simple strategy, baccarat wouldn't exist as the idea for such players to stay in the 'losing' side for long cannot be accepted. So forcing the improbable to happen after the 'more likely' had happened.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on April 27, 2022, 05:55:27 AM
Thx AsymBacGuy,

"...Since a perfect 'balanced' patterns world happening at each section of the shoe is out of question, we should investigate when a given pattern will take the transitory 'lead' over the counterpart in either W or L way..."
     
Q:How do you prefer to do this task?


Thanks in advance,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on April 28, 2022, 12:59:08 AM
Hi KFB!

Tomorrow I'll respond to you.

Cheers

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on April 30, 2022, 01:34:00 AM
Let's start with the assumption that by betting every hand or a lot of hands the probability to win after 3 or 4 shoes dealt is minimal.
Of course also the probability to lose all the 3 or 4 shoes is minimal.

Since it's more likely to get a final losing shoe than a winning shoe (and this fact perpetuates infinitely), it should be wise to bet only those hands that seem to get a 'clustered' winning potential.
On the other end we know that even betting every hand or plenty of hands a winning shoe will very likely come out in the same 4-shoe interval.

The 'old' worthless trick to use a strong progression in order to reverse a losing shoe into a winning shoe is the casinos' heaven as it can't be done by any means, yesterday now and in the next few years the human species is entitled to remain in this planet.

Then:

-in 100% of cases, a high frequency betting leads to get more losing shoes than winning shoes;

- there's a very high probability that after a set of 4-shoes one shoe will be a winning one even by betting every hand.

First possible countermeasure.

- Betting fewer hands. That move alone can't reverse the L/W shoes ratio, but surely will lower the HE impact. At the same time helping acute players to realize that things move around 'clusters' of more detectable lenght (see later).

Second possible countermeasure

- probability to get just one winning shoe 'no matter what' are overwhelming the remaining possible set of 4-shoe 16 combinations.
So for example after two losing shoes the probability to get at least one winning shoe in the next two shoes is greater than 25% (naturally to be really valuable our B bets must get at least a 51.3% winning probability and P bets at least a 50.1% winning probability).
The same about experiencing three straight losing shoes, the final fourth shoe will get a better than 50% probability to be a winning shoe. (And the same B 51.3%/ P 50.1% winning ratio applies). 

Obviously after any winning shoe the probability to encounter another winning shoe in the 4-shoe format is reduced, actually this is the only situation where the s.tup.id 'quit when you're ahead' suggestion will be (partially) worth.

The transitory 'lead' should be assessed about how many times a given probability event failed or succeeded to reach its 'average' value (for example a 0.75/0.25  probability model should get a 3:1 winning pace to break even).
Surpassed certain values and according to the expected number of hands left, probability that the 'silent side' will get a substantial lead over the counterpart is very low.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 08, 2022, 04:14:27 PM
For once pretend your goal is to lose faster than you can.
Besides wildly wagering side bets getting a very distant probability to happen, which moves would you take to accomplish this task?

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: klw on May 09, 2022, 07:31:47 PM
Hi as-  If there was such a way to calculate how to lose then Bac games wouldn't exist as all you have to do is bet the opposite and win , right ?

Cheers.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on May 10, 2022, 03:45:47 PM
Thx AsymBacGuy--i like  your reply567 above/ as always I like how you also think outside the box.

Your proposal :
"For once pretend your goal is to lose faster than you can.
Besides wildly wagering side bets getting a very distant probability to happen, which moves would you take to accomplish this task?"

If I may interject a thought into  your fine thread.

This reminds me of an exercise I often propose to some of my daily bac comrades when we are in deep discussion about the game/ I'm trying to emphasize that although the laws of probability are always hovering I also want to point out how difficult it is to find a whole shoe with (0) 3 iar(in-a-row) win streaks from both P or  B. Meaning its atypical that we will not see a PPP and not see a BBB for a whole shoe.

So I tell them we will wager a $100USD bill  on each shoe(infinite # of shoes or until one of us run out of $100 Bills)  that u will not go the whole shoe failing to guess 3 iar INCORRECT (Meaning they are trying to guess wrong 3 iar) . E.G., So if they think the next outcome is probable to be P, then they would wager B.

My point being its extremely difficult to go one whole shoe and NOT guessing 3iar wrong (just as it is to NOT guess 3iar correct). They obviously will win some of the per shoe $100 wagers, however, I would eventually win more of their Benjamins.

I suggest since we have ~~84 total hands in an 8-deck shoe(they nod in agreement), I say "ok--im giving u 42 chips and the rules are:

A) you must wager all 42 individual chips on separate wagers B or P placement only(no ties or bonus wagers)

B) you must get these 42 wagers decisioned before the end of the shoe(one can't wait too long as one must get 42 wager completed from 82 hands  -tie hands, as the 42 must get decisioned).

C) They can place them any where they want within streak or not.

D) If they go the whole shoe without guessing 3iar wrong they win, if they do guess 3iar wrong then I win their $100 bill.


*My hypothesis is they would find almost identical results if I proposed the same exercise for them to try and guess 3iar CORRECT.

Any thoughts?  Any flaws  or loopholes to be exploited? Will I win more $100 bills than I lose? What if I made it about 2iar or 4iar??


Continued Success To All,




Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 12, 2022, 01:00:01 AM
Very interesting points.
Hope to give you my comments very soon.
Cheers

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 26, 2022, 01:03:27 AM
Yep, klw...

If it's very difficult to lose the entire bankroll in very few spots, the same thing applies to the probability to double or almost double the initial investment.

Without any shadow of doubt, bac probabilities move around 'clustered' patterns making way less likely 'hopping' A/B probabilities standing for long.
And of course the least 'clustered' pattern to look for is 1.
So many 'reversed' strategies come out to be exploitable.

Taking KFB points:

definitely shoes are more likely to produce polarized situations at either way and by whimsical different values, yet what happened at the start or intermediate portions of the shoe is a fair indicator of what will happen next.

It's true that B or P 3s eventually belong to a more likely 3s/1-2s ratio, nonetheless itlr we'll face a slight greater number of shoes poorer of 3s than richer of 3s.

Another example is considering doubles vs 3+s streaks at byb and/or sr.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 27, 2022, 01:08:19 AM
@KFB

*My hypothesis is they would find almost identical results if I proposed the same exercise for them to try and guess 3iar CORRECT.

With that large number of bets I'd agree.

Now let's pretend to make a similar challenge having this rules:

1- $100 are awarded if after the whole shoe is dealt, the number of CORRECT 3IAR decisions is higher than WRONG 3IAR decisions. Or vice versa.

2- Player must declare which side (Correct or Wrong) is taking before the shoe is dealt. Naturally he can't change along the way the side chosen at the start of the shoe. 

3- Only 3IAR or multiple of 3 spots at either C or W side are worth to be classified (6IAR, 9IAR, etc).

4- Obviously player must bet at least 3 'resolved' hands per shoe.

5- We just face player's action, so paying him whether he accomplished his task otherwise he pay us $100.

6- A final equal number of correct and wrong decisions are just a push, so no money is changing hands.

My comments on such 'challenge'.

Naturally it's more interesting to take the player's part first, maybe could help us in some way our real play.

a) The best scenario to look for is to be right on the very first (possible) 3IAR spot (1/0), we'll win right away $100 not giving a damn about the rest of the shoe.

It's true that if we were wrong at that first 3IAR spot and even more after two or more 3IARs, we'll have almost nothing to lose so desperately betting around every corner of the shoe hoping to get 'right' 3IAR situations balancing or surpassing the previous uncorrect ones.
Later I'll make an additional aggravating rule about that possible approach.

b) The idea to look just for 3IAR spots (no matter if losing or winning ones) should endorse the 'clustering' impact assessment, that is the 2/8 random walk probability to take the strongest univocal direction after 3 resolved hands are dealt.

c) If we are temporarily right or wrong for two consecutive hands, we'll have more reasons to focus about the pivotal third hand making us winners or losers for that sequence half of the time, in the remaining half we'll have to restart the process.
But before that, WW or LL spots are the most important to look for. 

d) Since we can't change the side declared at the start of the shoe and for the many times here mentioned difficulty to get a valuable 'balacing' factor acting along every shoe, let alone by values capable to get a kind of 'strong' opposite back-to-back strenght, we should evaluate with plenty of care about the room at our disposal offered by the actual shoe (and ties can only restrict such space).

Possible reflections about real play

Thinking about getting a final shoe award in terms of 3IAR right/wrong ratio is, imo, a fine aim to look for.
Especially if we are not forced to take at the start of the shoe the 'right' or wrong' side of the action influencing our strategy.
Thus meaning that in the vast majority of the times we need to be just one fkng point ahead to quit the shoe as winners.
Very rarely a player quits a shoe as winner after getting more losing 3IAR spots than the winning 3IAR counterpart. (And vice versa). 

After all along any shoe dealt there are no many possibilities to cross 3IAR winning or losing spots.
And whenever a 3IAR spot comes out, well it's 1 point ahead (or behind) vs its counterpart in a way or another, so favorite to ending up as predominant.
The idea that the next same category outcomes (in our example 3IAR spots) should be more likely balanced than not cannot be applied at baccarat.
Otherwise a simple progressive plan oriented to get a full or more likely partial balancement of the already results happened so far will wipe out every casino's bankroll.

Casinos make their fortunes about the probability that homogeneous things cannot stand for long and/or that 'balancement strategies' at various forms cannot work for players.
Math edge is just an additional booster to get our money but not the main reason we are separated from our money.

Think in the same way.

Try to survive at the heterogeneous situations (best by not betting at all) and consider the spots where a given 3IAR line will more likely get the best of it vs its counterpart.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 28, 2022, 12:03:24 AM
As KFB correctly stated, every shoe dealt in the universe will present 3IAR situations at one or either side of the medal (losing or winning).
The fact that we might 'jump' some hands doesn't change the issue, we're just interested about the probability to get a W (or L) followed by another W (L) and another W (L) even if we bet hands #5, #11 and #14.
An example is when we try to get three P doubles with no P 3s in between that obviously can't be bet consecutively. 

If the shoe would offer just up to 2IAR W or L situations, the game wouldn't exist.
For the same reason we know that such 2IAR at either side must, sooner or later, transform into 3IAR.

But differently to the hypothetical game I traced in my last post, along the shoe nothing prevent us to bet toward the side that seems to offer better probabilities to form a first positive 3IAR.

In some way and knowing that not all of the time we can wait for fresh shoes, our approach might work way better when we adopt a strategy linked with a 'reverse' strategy.
Easier sayed than done, but this is one of the few options to be astoundingly 'right' at 2-3 or more consecutive shoes without having a tremendous luck working for us.

The important thing to remember, imo, is to shift the 'strategy' ASAP, so not delaying it. This because particularly 'good' or 'bad' shoes are way less likely to happen.

After all, the number of 3IAR spots per shoe are roaming around an average value that rarely touch strong deviations.

OoOoO

Say we set up a 'random' betting strategy where the red or black nature of the first card dealt on the previous hand will dictate the side we'll bet next (for real or fictionally) and we register the results in term of W and L.
Suppose a red card entices a Banker bet and a black card a Player bet.
Now look at your registration card and take care about how W and L will place and form patterns.

Say our goal is to spot when a 3IAR W or L pattern will be 'more likely' to happen without a precise 'method' to follow.
We could bet singles and doubles, long streaks, dominant patterns, my plans, etc.
Obviously if we'd think the next hand will be more probably a W we will bet Banker if the first card at previous hand was red or Player if it was a black card and vice versa.

Notice that resolved hands will come out randomly of course, yet the first card nature is somewhat affected by a constant dependent 'world' working at various degrees as more red or black cards are live in the deck, higher will be the probability that this new 'road' will take a univocal 'betting the same side' line.

It's like that the actual deck is playing a parallel game with us, getting its strings of wins and losses.

Unfortunately such approach works quite bad at HS rooms or premises where players are allowed to peek at cards: many times it could be difficult to spot the nature of the first card as many players like to shuffle and reshuffle their cards, yet there's always the 50% general probability that both cards are of the same color. 

A final note.

What we cannot bear is the constant arrogant attitude of so called 'gambling experts' labelling all baccarat players as 'id.iots', at the same time endorsing games as poker where itlr the rake or tournaments fees cannot be overcome by the vast majority of the players.
So let people think that poker tournament coin flips have more scientifical merit than betting Banker or Player at baccarat.
(It's not a coincidence that poker players tourneys data are evaluated only by wins not mentioning a bit about the buy-in losses).

Join a baccarat table and you are an id.iot despite the 1.15% average negative edge; join WSOP (coming up in four days) where the awarded money is taxed at origin by 11% at most tournaments and you are an 'intelligent' player. Maybe if the poker dream doesn't come true this year, you can purchase some books instructing you how to magically overcome that fkng 11% edge. "Theory of this", "Theory of that", yet poker super minds must win 'intelligent' coin flips whereas baccarat players must guess "stu.pi.d" coin flips.

Maybe as bac players we should go 'all-in' more often thus trying to take the 'intelligent' part of coin flips.
By some reasons they are not so wrong.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 29, 2022, 09:36:45 PM
The alternate B/P symmetrical scheme

This is an interesting approach to let hands get their flow without having to guess nothing but the lenght of the winning and losing situations.
It's a strict mechanical registration.

The procedure is very simple to follow: after the first hand is dealt (say it's a P) every next hand will follow the PBPBPBPB...scheme up to the end of the shoe.
If it's a B we'll use the BPBPBPBP....scheme.

Naturally if the B or P hand dictated by the scheme will win, we'll sign a W, otherwise a L is signed.

So for example a shoe sequence as

BBB
PP
B
PP
B
PP...

first hand is a B so the sequence becomes a WLWWLLLWWWL...

To cut a long story short, only chopping situations of some quantity happen to form long winning or losing patterns as any streak of any lenght at either side will stop the winning or losing process.

The theoretical plan is to face a pure symmetrical 50/50 preordered proposition with the sure asymmetrical hands distribution (and quality) of every shoe dealt.

Obviously probabilities to W or L remain (almost) the same and in fact, as always, we're not interested about getting long W spots or trying to avoid the L ones, just to evaluate an average impact of such registration over the entire shoe and for series of shoes.

Notice that probability to get long WLWLWLWL or LWLWLWLW patterns are related just to the occurence of streaks of lenght 5 or higher: e.g. BBBBB (WLWLW under BP plan and LWLWL under PB plan), the same about PPPPP.

At any rate, every streak happening at either side will make at least a W and of course half of the chopping lines will produce a long winning (or losing) sequence.
Since the number of 3+s streaks per shoe roams quite good around averages, we know that besides doubles stopping a homogeneous L or W pattern, many LWL or WLW (at least) spots will come around.

For now I stop.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on May 29, 2022, 10:15:25 PM
What the common mistaken belief is, that the order of the winning hands and the trends or patterns can be changed to suit the bettor. 

Reality is, when it is strong for one side, it remains strong.  When it is weak for either or both sides, it remains weak.  Nothing can change anything from happening. 

>>>>>"a state of balance between opposing forces or actions" will always be there, the only question is when does it dominate and form perfect or near perfect patterns.

Problem for almost all bettors is, their belief that they should follow their experiences as well as what the shoe has previously proven or not proven.  I know that is a catch all statement, but and seriously BUT, the equilibrium usually prevails the highest majority of the times when it approaches - or + 10 and once again right at the - or + 20 mark, especially around the middle of the shoe. 

The first part of the previous paragraph means, although it might seem beneficial it probably is contradictory to the shoe being played out.

There are numerous factors that must be taken into consideration when wagering for the 'equaling' out.

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on May 30, 2022, 02:55:58 PM
Thx AsymBacGuy for your responses to my reply#570 above.
Apologies for delay as I just returned from a multi-night bac trip.

ABG said: It's true that B or P 3s eventually belong to a more likely 3s/1-2s ratio, nonetheless itlr we'll face a slight greater number of shoes poorer of 3s than richer of 3s.

     I agree 100%. The main issue is we never know how many(3iar+) in that specific shoe, though we do know as each 3iar+ presents there is now one-less 3iar+ in the shoe. IOW the finiteness of Bac does present us with a limiting-type profile on most patterns. Just my thoughts/opinion.

ABG reponded: Another example is considering doubles vs 3+s streaks at byb and/or sr.

     You might clarify as Im not sure exactly what youre suggesting.


I stated in my reply570 the following when giving a hypothesis re: guessing 3iar correct(or incorrect) within 42 wagers in one shoe:

*My hypothesis is they would find almost identical results if I proposed the same exercise for them to try and guess 3iar CORRECT.

ABG said in response to the 42attempts: With that large number of bets I'd agree.

     Aahhh -very astute on your part as that was a key part of my hypothesis and one of the main points I wanted to make.
Meaning--We need to design our wagering regime to be insync with not only our buyin/win goals but also our own personal success rate for hitting X (# in a row wins) or in my proposal NOT being able to avoid 3iar wins(or loss)  streak.

     *I recently presented the scenario above (42 attempts to NOT guess 3iar correct OR incorrect) to three bac comrades that I share tables with approx 4x per week. They mostly do mild-to-steep negpro wagering regimes.
All three players are quite a bit older than me, and though experienced gamers likely haven't played as many hands of bac, in their 70s,  and have gamed at least 20-30+ years i would guess. All retired and I would assume have some mathematical knowledge and or education exposing them to general probabilities. Especially the CPA .
One owned a heating/air business, a dentist, and a CPA. I found it interesting as soon as I presented the criteria the CPA immediately said I would take that bet if you reduce the attempts to 21 vs the 42(meaning he only had to wager 21 attempts in his effort to avoid hitting 3iar). Of course I declined as that was part of my thesis because with the 42-attempt requirement they could not wait/stand on the sideline waiting for "best" opportunities* .
*Which is what we should do--IOW view each shoe as good,better, or best shoes (or sections) for our specific wagering regime/recognize that regardless of ones chosen wagering regime : Not all shoes are "best" and we may want to walk softly around the shoes that start out and are perceived as only "good or better" thus far.


I think most of us will agree:
When our wagering regime needs a certain number IAR(in-a-row) correct (like mine and most pospro) for success it is critical we give ourselves a reasonable number of attempts. Reasonable(i.e., optimum) number of attempts is best if we know our avg success rate (somewhat similar to levels & plateaus) as too many attempts then our profit is too small as a function of our buyin. If #attempts allotted is too few (vs our avg success rate) , then obviously we don't have enough bullets to survive long enough to get that steak. 

This is also a function of our press(or regress) regime as the more aggressive we are the fewer attempts(easier to bust out).
     IMO most players error by wagering  too small as a % of their advantage, house edge,  as well as a f(x) of their wagering strategy. Of course I don't know what their goal is(Im assuming it is to make more than they lose). Though some may simply be trying to get comps or play as long as possible,...etc(to each their own I guess).

Bottomline: We will have more long-term success if we design our whole regime(every single facet and detail) to match our own personal win goals and avg success rate for that specific wagering regime.


Continued Success To All,







Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 05, 2022, 09:28:13 PM
Al wrote Problem for almost all bettors is, their belief that they should follow their experiences as well as what the shoe has previously proven or not proven.  I know that is a catch all statement, but and seriously BUT, the equilibrium usually prevails the highest majority of the times when it approaches - or + 10 and once again right at the - or + 20 mark, especially around the middle of the shoe.

Good point, then it's all about which patterns a player wants to follow or not.

The 'equilibrium' strenght or RTM effect or 'balancing' factor, whatever one wish to name this kind of natural happening produces  less strong deviations when many hands are needed to form a given pattern.
More hands form a pattern = less deviations.
Notice that long homogeneous streaks happening at either side do not belong to this category as just one hand which went unnaturally wrong for one side will simply prolong the already dominant side.   
And of course we cannot have any control on that.

What we can do, IMO, is to take the slight more natural flow of the things and comparing that to the actual shoe results.
So when many unnatural situations happen (the favorite two-card side will lose several hands) the shoe is not going to be a favourable one. Regardless of what the fkng roads will display, and even if we were winning at those unnatural hands as it doesn't last for long.

Long term data (and experience) help us just to find out the average math favorite spots flow; itlr we cannot expect to win by drawing a Player 3 point vs a Banker 7 maybe by shouting "two side".

More often than not, long streaks are just an 'incident' happening along the way, so restarting the more natural process of  two-card math favorite situations. 

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on June 05, 2022, 10:35:48 PM
As you wrote, "More often than not, long streaks are just an 'incident' happening along the way, so restarting the more natural process of  two-card math favorite situations."

Players confuse themselves terribly with chasing 'incidents'.  Defining them cause the highest majority to chase, wait, continue wagering, etc., and IMO it is dangerous.  The incidents will always come and go quickly. 

Problem is, if you win on defining an incident almost always you will give back and lose additional funds in front of yourself by wagering for it again and again.  Why?  Because you have just convinced yourself of a definable opportunity. 

Players will find all kinds of incidents and there are many many so called incidents coming out of the shoe.  Not just long streaks.

But yes, many times after long streaks there are sections of chops, but my experiences of chops can be two cards each side, or five cards, as well as six card total hands. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 05, 2022, 11:32:44 PM
ABG said: It's true that B or P 3s eventually belong to a more likely 3s/1-2s ratio, nonetheless itlr we'll face a slight greater number of shoes poorer of 3s than richer of 3s.

     I agree 100%. The main issue is we never know how many(3iar+) in that specific shoe, though we do know as each 3iar+ presents there is now one-less 3iar+ in the shoe. IOW the finiteness of Bac does present us with a limiting-type profile on most patterns. Just my thoughts/opinion.


Hi KFB!

Good points.
I'll give you the strategy of a couple of bac pros I know, maybe it could help:

They selectively bet that a double or a given series of doubles won't make or will do make a 3+ streak and vice versa for 3+s streaks.
Naturally they give more emphasis when the searched outcome will be a Banker wager.
And they bet huge. Really huge.

Either a double or a 3+ streak will make a cluster or not, but if everything would follow a kind of 'sky's the limit' clustering effect baccarat wouldn't exist at all.

It's like we're taking the casinos' part: we hope 'following patterns' players  sooner or later will be wrong and as players we do bet that in selected circumstances the 'wrong' works in our favor.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on June 05, 2022, 11:38:35 PM
You wrote, " IOW the finiteness of Bac does present us with a limiting-type profile on most patterns. Just my thoughts/opinion."

Exactly correct.  Times it will help us and yet, at times it can hurt us.  Can a whole shoe be very strong?  Sure.  Can a whole shoe be extremely weak?  Sure.  But usually, as a norm it will be a mixture of both. 

Mind-sets are helpful and as well, dangerous. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 05, 2022, 11:56:47 PM
Quote from: alrelax on June 05, 2022, 10:35:48 PM
As you wrote, "More often than not, long streaks are just an 'incident' happening along the way, so restarting the more natural process of  two-card math favorite situations."

Players confuse themselves terribly with chasing 'incidents'.  Defining them cause the highest majority to chase, wait, continue wagering, etc., and IMO it is dangerous.  The incidents will always come and go quickly. 

Problem is, if you win on defining an incident almost always you will give back and lose additional funds in front of yourself by wagering for it again and again.  Why?  Because you have just convinced yourself of a definable opportunity. 

Players will find all kinds of incidents and there are many many so called incidents coming out of the shoe.  Not just long streaks.

But yes, many times after long streaks there are sections of chops, but my experiences of chops can be two cards each side, or five cards, as well as six card total hands.

Wonderful points Al!

Most people think that 'incidents' are more likely to produce 'actual deviated outcomes' as the idea to quit a shoe is out of order.
Then some 'reversed' points must take into account.

Recently we've witnessed a HS player (wagering 5k or more) abandoning the table after a 11 B streak happened, I mean without getting a P hand to stop his winning streak.
Actually the 11 B streak collected another 5 more B hands to get a final 16 Banker streak.

I do not recall a single bac player quitting a winning streak by not chasing that streak up to an eventual end.
Casinos prosper on such id.i.ot.s.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on June 06, 2022, 12:07:31 AM
So many live for these types of shoes, then when they do appear just about the entire table is in real-life denial and wagering for the opposite side to match or just a continuous wagering for the so called, cut.  By the way, the last three natural bankers in the second run back to back, were all natural 9s over players natural 8s.  Which fueled the furious wagering on players. 

[attachimg=1]
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 06, 2022, 12:20:59 AM
ABG reponded: Another example is considering doubles vs 3+s streaks at byb and/or sr.

     You might clarify as Im not sure exactly what youre suggesting.


Well, it's more likely to find long 1-2 spots at byb and sr than at BR.
Actually we've found at byb and sr 1-2 series going up to consecutive 31 spots in a row without getting a 3+ streak than at BR (here maximum limit was 26).

For that matter and even taking into account the more probable 3s line, even CR will get an interesting amount of 'poor' 3s and many 1-2 spots.

Jackpots happen even at baccarat.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 06, 2022, 12:31:40 AM
Quote from: alrelax on June 06, 2022, 12:07:31 AM
So many live for these types of shoes, then when they do appear just about the entire table is in real-life denial and wagering for the opposite side to match or just a continuous wagering for the so called, cut.  By the way, the last three natural bankers in the second run back to back, were all natural 9s over players natural 8s.  Which fueled the furious wagering on players. 

[attachimg=1]

Yep, but how many times such shoes are going to happen?

At every HS in the world this shoe means a very huge dent at casinos' pockets.

And we know that HS players are very welcome at every premise.

So I would infer that such shoes are not so likely to happen.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on June 06, 2022, 12:43:09 AM
They do not happen 'all the time'.  Correct.

But they do happen.  Same as with a series of 13-17 continuous chops, or a series of 8-12 doubles, etc.  Or a section with players or bankers where there are 5-7 winning hands of say player, then a chop or two or three and 7 or so more players.  Then a few chops or doubles then the same thing with bankers as what came out with the players.  Whereas you only lose your last wager after making 5-8 winning bets.  In the groove with following a strong section or a strong shoe.   

It does happen. 

And by the way, when I say 'strong' that means what you see in the bankers streak above, or a good section of chop chops, doubles or triples.  Also a good solid section with 1s-2s-3s-3s-2s-1s, etc.  Weak is a couple chops, a 3 iar, a chop, a double or two and a mini steak of say 6.  Meaning whatever you are following does not appear or appears once or twice out of 6 or 7 wagers.

People will argue, but you can't win with a weak shoe, unless you are wagering blindly a very small amount of hands, as well as wagering large on those trivial amount of bets. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 06, 2022, 12:55:34 AM
Ok Al, that's a different story.

So a 'weak shoe' is anything that do not belong at any point of it to a strong or moderate polarized side, right?

When we do have reasons to think that a shoe will be 'weak' or 'strong'?

as.     

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on June 06, 2022, 01:01:31 AM
To myself and the others I regularly play with, a weak section/shoe is a combination of hands that cannot be followed. 

A strong section/shoe I are hands that can be followed.

The total amount of each type of hands, do not have to result in streak type of incidents. 

Section by section you can clearly see if it is weak or strong. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on June 06, 2022, 04:51:45 AM
Hi All,

I responded in reply577:

I agree 100%. The main issue is we never know how many(3iar+) in that specific shoe, though we do know as each 3iar+ presents there is now one-less 3iar+ in the shoe. IOW the finiteness of Bac does present us with a limiting-type profile on most patterns. Just my thoughts/opinion.


ABG responded in reply 580:


Good points.
I'll give you the strategy of a couple of bac pros I know, maybe it could help:

They selectively bet that a double or a given series of doubles won't make or will do make a 3+ streak and vice versa for 3+s streaks.
Naturally they give more emphasis when the searched outcome will be a Banker wager.
And they bet huge. Really huge.

Either a double or a 3+ streak will make a cluster or not, but if everything would follow a kind of 'sky's the limit' clustering effect baccarat wouldn't exist at all.

It's like we're taking the casinos' part: we hope 'following patterns' players  sooner or later will be wrong and as players we do bet that in selected circumstances the 'wrong' works in our favor.

Hi ABG--Thx for your responses and addendum ideas. IMO Your bac pro comrades likely win more $ than they lose by "selectively bet that a double or a given series of doubles won't make or will do make a 3+ streak and vice versa for 3+s streaks.[/b]".

My thoughts:
Likely lucrative for them especially if they  select other simultaneous criteria to enhance their position, which Im confident they do. For example, in their case where they are wagering for current outcomes will change, I would think observing the beginning of said pattern near the end of a section (so their keyhole wager is entered when that section is also ending, could prove beneficial vs lets say at the very beginning of the first section.

I would also prefer low ties vs many ties, & even more important if Ties show up at the very exact keyhole spot.  Personally I find ties weaken my confidence when they show at that keyhole wager spot/decision spot. E.G., (BBPPBB T) or even more when we see (BBPPBB T T T) , then I would likely just think: abort abort abort , and wait for another perceived hotspot.

Personally,  in the example with  your bac pro friends,  I would prefer a two-layer wagering regime vs a single wager and would do some type of simple negpro (e.g., 1.0 U, if lost then 2.75U,...so wager  $100 the event won't continue & if lost then immediately wager $275 on the very next decision won't continue,...etc.). STOP, and accept the result,  so IOW don't chase it.

I don't seek out keyhole spots as u mention above though i do see the merits of pursuing a very select few spots(not necessarily just this spot).

I like to refer to these type of cluster groups (i.e., 2s & 3s as u mention above or whatever this shoe is showing as a cluster group), as shelves --meaning we look at board and there is a shelf and all we see is a shelf with everything turning at or near the same level.
I do frequently try to snipe a single win  as part of a pos progression(though wagering the right-now current event will continue so if cutting wager for cutting/ if continuing wager for continuance. Which in this case meaning this cluster-group will turn at 2 or 3 one more time, so in my case I would want to snipe one out of the middle and not wait for it to approach expiration).

I like these "shelves" even more if both sides are reaching this shelf and turning as well as other same-length events are turning too. Its really tempting to think I can grab several, though experience has shown I do better to snipe one win, set my wager aside,  and wait for a fresh shelf for this or other cluster group, and then re enter that pressed-up wager.



Continued Success To ALL,






Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 07, 2022, 11:05:54 PM
Thanks Al and KFB!
I appreciated your replies.

Ties: As many times already written here, shoes particularly rich of ties do favor just one possible (not recommended) action. That is betting ties.
There's a mathematical answer about that: ties are well more likely to show up when 6 cards are utilized to form a hand and six cards could only enhance the volatility of outcomes.

Two-layer wagering regime: excellent point.
Test how many times in a row a 0.75 (or so) probability will be wrong along any shoe dealt. Of course and for reasons abundantly traced in my section the most emphasis must be put on the very first bet out of two.

Instruct shoes to get singled (not clustered) streaks of certain lenght (two different adjacent class streaks not getting a cluster of any lenght) for long and you'll see that it's very difficult to lose, especially if you have waited to fictionally miss one or two 2-wager steps.

Long streaks are more likely coming out from a poor shuffling, yet at the same time HS rooms particularly fear long streaks as they tend to let players winning many hands without guessing a fkng nothing.

There's no a precise streaks pattern to be followed, it all depends about the actual texture of the shoe.
Obviosuly 2-3 and 3-4 streaks are the more likely to be traced, naturally do not forget about the average 3+ streaks number happening along every shoe.

If this average 3+ streaks number is 9.5 per shoe, you may safely assume you'll cross more shoes getting stronger deviated sd values at the deficit side than at the surplus side.
Hence, for example, it's way more probable to get a shoe showing up to four or five 3+ streaks (-5.5 and -4.5) than a shoe forming the same symmetrical fourteen or fifteen  3+ streaks counterpart (+4.5 and +5.5).

Thus just a 2-3 streaks plan is going to get a valuable edge over the house, itlr. Of course strongly favoring the doubles appearance than 3s (being good anyway) or 3+s 'enemies.

To face such plan, house can only hope to get many 'singled' streaks situations in a row taken from a double-level shelf (I like KFB word) and the probability to not get such clustered spots is very low.

Moreover, acute buddies know that a math two-card situation can be sometimes disappointed, so 'unnaturally' prolonging a given streak or series of streaks. So it's like they kind of putting brakes on their plan.

Then, but this is a direct corollary of what sayed above, unlikely very long streaks tend to destroy this plan either by lack of proper room to get lower streaks appearance and by other reasons I won't discuss here.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 08, 2022, 01:56:15 AM
Run whatever number of shoes you wish (providing they are coming from a live source), you'll see that 2-3 clustered streaks (for example) are moving around more likely cutoff spots getting a very low variance. Especially if 'unfavourable' streaks are formed by unnatural two-card result situations.

It's like this fkng random walk could get the 'sky's the limit' approach without sweating that your QQ or AK all-in will win at a so called 'coin flip' challenges taken at either side.

But there's a strong interest to let people think that poker is an intelligent game whereas baccarat is just for stu.pi.d gamblers. Maybe by selling poker books instructing you how to get an Ace or a King when going all-in with A-K or avoiding those cards when going all-in with Q-Q.

Actually you'll make at least a 10-fold more money to play this approach than joining poker tournaments even as 'top notch' player.

Next week we'll meekly see how to get the best of it by exploiting card distributions, after all 'sky's the limit' world just belongs to poker players where only winnings are magnified without any mention of the actual losses (buy-ins).
Thinking in the same way we all bac players would be millionaire winners.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on June 08, 2022, 02:38:54 AM
[quote author=AsymBacGuy link=topic=10695.msg70202#msg70202 date=1654653375


Thinking in the same way we all bac players would be millionaire winners.

as.



You care to know why there will never be countless millionaire winners at baccarat?

Because, the majority and I mean the highest of the highest majority, wager/play too long when they do win and fail to wager sizable amounts, giving back all or most of their winnings and eventually their buy ins.  And, when they lose they continue with the fiercest vengeance to continue buying in until their entire bankroll is depleted.

Both scenarios are redundantly committed, time after time after time after time after time after time after time after time. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on June 08, 2022, 05:30:54 PM
Hi all,

ABG in his reply above:
"...Hence, for example, it's way more probable to get a shoe showing up to four or five 3+ streaks (-5.5 and -4.5) than a shoe forming the same symmetrical fourteen or fifteen  3+ streaks counterpart (+4.5 and +5.5)...."

     that's a good example and perfect way to illustrate the limiting profile of Bac for this and other similar-length patterns.

*Of course as we all will agree most shoes could still have that one long same-bet  or same-pattern repeating streak and many players will latch on to that in their minds eye and let that /only that dominate their decision making(especially if in front of shoe and a same-side streak).

Side Bar:
I find it interesting when a long same-side streak presents in the first couple of columns and all of a sudden other players from nearby shoes come running over salivating for that streak "just one more time" . Though if the same length streak of say tres presents: pppbbbppp, not as much hoopla.  If the same-side streak is really long such as 10-11 in a row even other players from other games will often come by, gawk, and point,  and make statements like: "I would have made about $400K" or "I would own the casino IF i had been here",...etc. Oh well, at least they are optimistic.


Continued Success,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on June 08, 2022, 07:42:40 PM
Quote from: KungFuBac on June 08, 2022, 05:30:54 PM
Hi all,

ABG in his reply above:
"...Hence, for example, it's way more probable to get a shoe showing up to four or five 3+ streaks (-5.5 and -4.5) than a shoe forming the same symmetrical fourteen or fifteen  3+ streaks counterpart (+4.5 and +5.5)...."

     that's a good example and perfect way to illustrate the limiting profile of Bac for this and other similar-length patterns.

*Of course as we all will agree most shoes could still have that one long same-bet  or same-pattern repeating streak and many players will latch on to that in their minds eye and let that /only that dominate their decision making(especially if in front of shoe and a same-side streak).

Side Bar:
I find it interesting when a long same-side streak presents in the first couple of columns and all of a sudden other players from nearby shoes come running over salivating for that streak "just one more time" . Though if the same length streak of say tres presents: pppbbbppp, not as much hoopla.  If the same-side streak is really long such as 10-11 in a row even other players from other games will often come by, gawk, and point,  and make statements like: "I would have made about $400K" or "I would own the casino IF i had been here",...etc. Oh well, at least they are optimistic.


Continued Success,

Can just as easy profit very large with a strong 'chop chop' or doubles or triples and so on.  A streak of anything, does not have to be a banker or player run. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 13, 2022, 11:41:12 PM
i]A streak of anything, does not have to be a banker or player run. [/i]

This is one of the best quote ever made regarding baccarat.

Streak= any event happening back to back (at various lenghts)

No streak= any event NOT happening back to back (at various lenghts)

Strategy #1.
Betting to get streaks of something, probability to win at least once at every shoe is 100%.

Strategy #2
Betting to get NO streaks of something, probability to win at least once is <100%.

Obviously the words 'at least once' will take a way different impact whether the number of bets per shoe are 72 or 10, for example.

Say we want to consider 'doubles' gaps, that is events not belonging to 'double' category within the 1 gap and >1 gap (so consecutive doubles are not included in this classification as belonging to the 0 class).
Even if the number of doubles in the actual shoe is quite huge, we can't refrain the shoe to produce >1 gaps and at the same time back to back precise 1 gap cannot get values greatly deviating from an average number.

So and proportionally considering their greater probability to happen than 3+s streaks, itlr double/no double/double patterns (1-gap) are coming out by a slight lesser probability than 3+/no 3+/3+ patterns.
For an obvious reason as they are more likely to show up clustered (0-gapped) than interspersed by just one 'no double' event.

Another reason why it's quite difficult to spot a shoe not showing up at least one 3+/x/3+ pattern is because cards are strongly asymmetrically placed (and for general asymmetrical game features) thus endorsing at least a transitory 6/1 B/P or P/B ratio or a 6/2 B/P or P/B ratio happening along any shoe dealt.

No need to employ fkng virtual edge sorting techniques, any shoe dealt in the universe will make more probable to get at some point at least one 1-gap 3+ streak (any 3+ streak followed by a no 3+ streak then followed by another 3+ streak).
Some variance will act (some rare shoes won't show any pattern as this) so virtually waiting to get many 'losing' spots will only raise your EV.

On the other end, selectively betting towards not getting certain doubles gaps is one of the best way to bringing down the house as we're just comparing general probabilities to actual asymmetrical card distributions.

Doubles and 3+ streaks flows are just an example, Al names such 'streak' opportunities as playable 'sections' or unplayable 'sections', the important thing to realize is they do come out on the vast majority of shoes and of course they do stop at some point.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 14, 2022, 12:04:54 AM
Hi KFB!
You wrote:
I find it interesting when a long same-side streak presents in the first couple of columns and all of a sudden other players from nearby shoes come running over salivating for that streak "just one more time" . Though if the same length streak of say tres presents: pppbbbppp, not as much hoopla.  If the same-side streak is really long such as 10-11 in a row even other players from other games will often come by, gawk, and point,  and make statements like: "I would have made about $400K" or "I would own the casino IF i had been here",...etc. Oh well, at least they are optimistic.


Yep, you're right. 

Any long B or P streak is considered 'post hoc', that is after it happened, so pretending a player would bet it at the start of it or after a couple of hands belonging to that streak.

Rattlesnakesh.i.t.

At baccarat people constantly confiding in long streaks or long homogeneous patterns are going to lose without exception.
Casinos' fortune is that such players constitute the large majority of bac bettors, even though some unlikely shoes will make casinos to lose a lot of money at HS tables.

Nothing wrong to occasionally ride a long streak, after all after 1000 or so resolved hands dealt a 10-streak must happen on average.
The same about a 16 or more 1-2 long pattern not showing a 3 event.

But being optimistic is a lot different thing than being realistic.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 15, 2022, 12:17:56 AM
Playing the 'short gapped' 3+ predominant streaks

This strategic plan is very powerful, especially when you have reasons to think that shoes are poorly shuffled.
Everything is based upon the verified probability that along the vast majority of shoes, there will be spots where key cards will be somewhat 'concentrated' to get a predominance of one side within a limited amount of hands.
Actually almost every bac player will be enticed to bet this propensity, yet there are some caveats to add.

There are just two 'triggers to follow:

a) BBB...PBB then betting B or PPP...BPP then betting P  (one time) and

b) BBB...PPBB then betting B or PPP...BBPP then betting P (one time)

Comments

1) This plan does get a strong advantage in terms of variance, meaning that it's quite difficult not to cross this situation for long. So a 'virtual losing strategy' along with any kind of progression will get the best of it by a wonderful positive probability.

2) We need that after the first 3+ streak (followed by a single or a double on the opposite side) an immediate 'double' come out, so nearly half of the possible situations won't belong to this plan (that is when a single come out).

3) It's recommended to look for the least amount of wins per shoe, that is 1.

4) This attack constitutes the 'enemy' of a simple single/double plan (betting toward 1s and 2s after a 'singled' 1/2 situation shows up); unfortunately such single/double plan tends to collide with the 'natural' probability that cards are one-sided clumped in some portions of the shoe. IOW (ty KFB) and without the help of additional factors, the 1/2 plan is affected by a greater volatility.

Take care

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on June 15, 2022, 03:12:01 AM
Hi ABG--good post/thoughts below.
______________________________________

Playing the 'short gapped' 3+ predominant streaks

This strategic plan is very powerful, especially when you have reasons to think that shoes are poorly shuffled.
Everything is based upon the verified probability that along the vast majority of shoes, there will be spots where key cards will be somewhat 'concentrated' to get a predominance of one side within a limited amount of hands.
Actually almost every bac player will be enticed to bet this propensity, yet there are some caveats to add.

There are just two 'triggers to follow:

a) BBB...PBB then betting B or PPP...BPP then betting P  (one time) and

b) BBB...PPBB then betting B or PPP...BBPP then betting P (one time)

Comments

1) This plan does get a strong advantage in terms of variance, meaning that it's quite difficult not to cross this situation for long. So a 'virtual losing strategy' along with any kind of progression will get the best of it by a wonderful positive probability.

Q1: Do you continue your pursuit of a win across shoes? e.g., Lets say our wager in this keyhole spot fails twice in a shoe and we don't get our desired setup again. Do you continue with your negpro into the next shoe(3rd attempt) or do you start your negpro again?

Thx again,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on June 16, 2022, 04:41:04 PM
Hi AsymBacGuy

I used your methodology above  yesterday(3 shoes). I will preface the results by saying I did not wait for the setup to fail once & then implement, as I "think" you have suggested  or at least insinuated in this or similar regimes.

I implemented as they presented. Results: Shoe #1: 2/3 winners, shoe #2:  0/1 winners, shoe #3: 1/1 winners.

Shoes #2 and #3 only presented the setup once. I didn't play shoe#3 to the end.

All wagers were on B. 

All of the shoes had established a shelf at mostly toward four iar for same-side streaks as well as Opps. Meaning things of 3 were going to 4 slightly more than not.
I also perceived that type of profile lending itself to this type of keyhole-spot wagering. Meaning the shoe had already displayed a desire to go >=3+ , thus far.
So far so good.  :applause:

Now this leads to my follow-up questions I should have asked you a few days ago but simply had not considered the following setup would be encountered. 

Q1: What are your thoughts when we get the desired set up (e.g., BBB PP BBT  )?
When we get that T do you abandon this setup and wait for the next setup down shoe? Do you wager one more try after the T? Would you be more inclined to wager after that  T if the first leg was 4iar vs 3iar, example  >=BBBB?

Q2: Similar example to above and lets say we won on our initial try, the next column continued with a PP, and turned and now the third B column in this 5-column setup has now presented BB? . Do you also wager again for this 3rd B column for B2 to also go B3? Example BBB PP BBB PP BB?    OR   is the 3rd B column NA in this regime?


Thx in advance,





Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 17, 2022, 11:55:07 AM
Hi Kfb!
See you in a couple of days!

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 20, 2022, 01:47:34 AM
Hi KFB!

Stup.id gambling experts think that baccarat is only beatable via edge sorting (a virtual technique) or card counting the side bets.
Bighorn.sh.it.

As long as a finite number of cards is shuffled into a playable shoe and cards are getting a different substantial value over the outcomes, some sure indeniable favourable spots are arising for the acute player.

Back to your questions.

Differently to many other outcomes, the probability mentioned above is well restricted into valuable 'variance' terms.
And more often than not everything is in direct relationship about how good or bad are shuffled the cards.

Say asymbacguy bet toward singles and doubles after a virtual win came out. He will play toward getting any kind of 1/2 clustered event.
He will lose whenever a 3+ streak will come out after any single 1 or 2 event shows up, that is a 3-1-3 or 3-2-3 situation.

Asymbacgirl will bet toward getting the exact opposite situation, that is hoping to get a 3-1-3 or 3-2-3 event at some point.

The difference is that asymbacguy, albeit being entitled to get more winning streaks than losing streaks, must bet two times to be right whereas asymbacgirl can wait to get 'key' spots to wager, that is she'll be 50% wrong or 50% right. 

Notice that consecutive 3+ streaks doesn't hurt either player.

Itlr, there's a probability that asymbacguy will get ALL winnings at a given shoe and a probability that asymbacgirl won't get ANY win.
Notice that both scenarios are mutually exclusive, meaning that whenever asymbacguy will get ALL winnings asymbacgirl won't get any win but at the same time she could get a lower amount of losing hands (as singles coming out after a 3+ streak won't entioce any action for her).

It's like that for once girls are somewhat more likely to win as it's more unlikely to get back-to-back ALL asymbacguy winnings for a couple of shoes dealt than getting two consecutive shoes not forming at least one spot to get asymbacgirl to win and with a way lower effort.

The reason stands about the relative unlikelihood to get a given number of 3+ streaks so much deviating from the average  by a abnormal deficit value than getting short-gapped 3+s streaks making asymbacgirl to win at least once in the most circumstances.
It's like that after a 3+ streak and a single or double appearance, any next double will make more likely to get a 3+ streak than another double. Obviously at percentages way different than what a 50/50 independent proposition dictates.

In practice.

Shoes not producing at least one 3+/1-2/3+ pattern are quite rare to happen, if not think about how many winnings in a row you would accumulate by wagering singles and doubles after either one of those events will show up after a 3+ streak.
And such opportunity cannot stand for long.

So assign a value about the probability to get a 3+/1-2/3+ pattern vs the specular 3+/1-2/2 pattern; most of the times you'll be right just once per shoe, so I would make a progressive plan about this simple opportunity.

Playing constantly toward such opportunities in a back-to-back way along any shoe dealt needs a strong bankroll, anyway the results will be slowly yet invariably shifted at your side, after all it's the same issue Alrelax stressed about here:

- when things seem to go in your favor, do not be shy to ride the positive wave. Sh.it happens in clusters the same way heaven happens in clusters.

Ties interfering with the actual play

It's true that after a tie and more often than not things tend to alter a given flow of the game, yet this attack seems to be quite insensitive to that, so I would recommend to consider a tie just as a 'neutral' event.

Conclusion.

A random walk playing to get a 3+/1-2/3+ streak is not going to get huge negative variance, especially if we'd search just one of this opportunity to happen per shoe.
Baccarat 'rule' is to get many 'unbalanced' outcomes than balanced ones.

It's sufficent to check your shoes and see how many times such opportunity won't happen back-to-back.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 20, 2022, 02:25:30 AM
Here's the attack made on real live shoes randomly taken:

LLWL
LW
LLWLWW
LWW
WLWL
WW
LW
WWWL
WWWW
L

WWWWL
WW
WLL
WLLWW
WLW
LL
WL
WW
WWW
WLLWL

WLWWL
WW
WLLL
WWLW
W
WW
LLLW
LLWW
WW
LLL

Total W= 55
Total L= 39

A fluke for sure, so test your shoes to disprove such findings.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 20, 2022, 02:47:12 AM
Another samples

LLW
LLL
WWWWL
LWW
WLL
WWWL
LWWLW
WLLLL
WWW
LL

W= 18 L=18

WLWWLL
WLWLW
WL
WWL
LWL
WLWW
WWWW
WLLW
LW
WLL

W=21 L= 15

LLW
WWL
WLL
WL
W
WLWLL
LLLL
WW
LL
WLLWW

W= 13  L= 17


Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on June 20, 2022, 03:16:44 PM
Thx ABG

"...The difference is that asymbacguy, albeit being entitled to get more winning streaks than losing streaks, must bet two times to be right whereas asymbacgirl can wait to get 'key' spots to wager, that is she'll be 50% wrong or 50% right. ..."


"...Notice that both scenarios are mutually exclusive, meaning that whenever asymbacguy will get ALL winnings asymbacgirl won't get any win but at the same time she could get a lower amount of losing hands (as singles coming out after a 3+ streak won't entioce any action for her)...."

"...It's like that for once girls are somewhat more likely to win as it's more unlikely to get back-to-back ALL asymbacguy winnings for a couple of shoes dealt than getting two consecutive shoes not forming at least one spot to get asymbacgirl to win and with a way lower effort...."
__________________________________________________________________________________

Well stated and I think the concepts in blue are often overlooked as to how important it is to get a win with as little effort(funds) as possible being spent. Obviously it is optimum when we get that W on the first wager(attempt).

IOW, how can we get a Net Win with the greatest efficiency. Meaning : Fewest wagers or the least monies risked.

I really like your examples above/thx.


Cheers,




Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on June 20, 2022, 03:30:37 PM
Ref the first wins, wins with least risks, winning first wagers, etc, etc.

You guys are correct and I know I have written about it extensively. 

Here is a piece I wrote previously:

"What I do see, more in the Midwest than elsewhere on a consistent nature is the 'playing for the cut'.  Never changes.  Last night there was a couple shoes in a row at a $25.00 to $3,000.00 Macau/Midi table.  For Example, strong first half and stronger second half--4 solid runs of both bankers and players.  2 runs of 10 and 12 Bankers and 2 runs of 7 and 8 Players.  Followed by solid 2's and 3's of each between the runs.  A strong shoe, no doubt, no arguing. Put a bunch of the old school players at that same shoe and guaranteed the dealer's chip rack would have been minus all the lavender and orange, all of it.

Lots of money flowing into the table, everyone losing.  Like HunchBacShrimp pointed out, every repeating banker or player, the people are wagering for the 'cut'.  And to boot, which I believe from the past years of play, when the shoe is strong--it is strong, no changing it.  When it is weak, it is weak.  (A weak shoe is the time to wager heavily on the cut, again-IMO and opinions of many old school players)  Sorry the game does not change.  The game is and was always the same.

What I mean by 'strong' is say on the repeating banks, the player shows 8 and the banker returns a 9.  The player returns a 7 and the Banker returns 5 and pulls a 3 or 4.  Every hand the players has a fairly high value hand but gets beat and then the same on the player repeats, etc.   Repeatedly, not once or twice or three times out of 20 but like 16 to 18 times.  That is a classic 'strong' shoe.

The way I learned to play was to go with the shoe.  No matter what it was doing, weak, strong-whatever.  Yes and a capital YES!  The shoe can change the opposite way at anytime."

Ref the last sentence, meaning you are wagering for what you want the shoe to do, not for what the shoe is actually presenting.  And one wins by wagering on what the shoe will present,   Once you understand that, your pathway to profits will be easier. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on June 21, 2022, 03:23:08 PM
Hi all,

AsymBacGuy:

Another samples

LLW
LLL
WWWWL
LWW
WLL
WWWL
LWWLW
WLLLL
WWW
LL

W= 18 L=18



C'MON MAN!

"We will need the expertise of forum veteran Albalaha just to interpret that data."     :)

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 22, 2022, 12:46:22 AM
Thanks KFB and thanks Al!

KFB:
my samples considered the 3/1-2/3 attack and each W spot is +1 (minus vig when applicable) and L= -1
1-2 trigger is any single or double happening after a 3+ streak.

Almost impossible to get a multilayered progression to lose as it's virtually impossible that any card distribution won't get at least one 'strong' shifted situation to happen very shortly.

There are 96 'key cards' to fall here or there along with 128 zero-value cards. The remaining card combinations are just flowing without 'strong' math reasons to produce a winning hand at either side, itlr such part of outcomes will equal.
Imo we must spot such 'key cards imbalances' and not trying to win at the way more likely 'remaining' whimsical situations. 

And btw, the lesser the amount of decks utilized to form a shoe greater will be the probability to catch those 'imbalances' by a proper 'key card' propensity assessment.
That's why in Vegas and in Asian casinos 8 decks are utilized instead of the EU 6 decks.

In some way it's the same concept why casinos have cut off single deck black jack.
At bj, math is the king and at baccarat statistical distribution is the queen (but think at chess, queen has more moves to make than king).
So if at a single-deck bj game all aces are removed very early and all 5s are live, we could easily tell the casino 'go fk yourselve). But we have to bet anyway, so taking the worst of it.

However at baccarat a low level of predominance may or not may stand for long, yet we know which more likely ranges such low levels will take and of course a relative counterpart predominance must happen sooner or later. Always taking into account how many hands were dealt and how many hands are left to be dealt.
With the luxury to take the direction we wish and whenever we want, differently to bj.

Al is perfectly right on that: if a given line seems to stand for long let's ride it, otherwise stay away.
Maybe it's a seemingly more 'gambling ' approach than waiting for less likely favourable spots to show up but getting its value anyway.

We should remember that baccarat is a dependent card game not in terms of which side should be more entitled to win but about the more likely winning ranges dictated by the actual more or less unbalanced card distribution

Let's consider another wonderful approach to get the best of it, that is the already mentioned 'clustered streaks' factor.
Now taken from an 'opposite' way of thought, that is that predominant sitautions must stop when they reach a given deviated value.

Theory: streaks of a certain lenght are more likely made by predominant one-sided events that reach detectable ranges. In a word, when key cards are naturally consumed, a more natural hopping situation will take place, so making long whimsical streaks less likely to happen.
Always by a clustered fashion considered at given levels as shoes are unlikely to provide events getting huge 'non clustered' situations.
This theory was demonstrated to be so powerful in practice that it's probable you'll lose interest in playing this game anymore for a lack of 'suspence'.

Set up your 'random walk' on streaks of certain two-level lenght (2-3, 3-4, 4-5) and make them to show up by a clustered fashion vs an isolated fashion.
Test a lot of live shoes and you'll see that in specific situations the general probability to win (75% as you'll bet two spots to get a cluster) will raise up to 85%, a wonderful 20% edge minus commission (when applicable).

Moreover a fair number of shoes are so polarized that the opposite unfortunate event won't happen for long, so making the 'breaking down the house' more a reality than a dream.

Remember that math can work just on perfect random and independent propositions, and we have strong reasons (verified by practice) that baccarat results are affected by a kind of unrandom factor accompanied by a natural asymmetrical card distribution enticing the formation of some patterns than others.
Itlr.
In the long fkng run.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on June 22, 2022, 05:39:50 PM
Thx --excellent post/ glad u provided examples.

From ABG reply above:

"....my samples considered the 3/1-2/3 attack and each W spot is +1 (minus vig when applicable) and L= -1
1-2 trigger is any single or double happening after a 3+ streak.

Almost impossible to get a multilayered progression to lose as it's virtually impossible that any card distribution won't get at least one 'strong' shifted situation to happen very shortly.

There are 96 'key cards' to fall here or there along with 128 zero-value cards. The remaining card combinations are just flowing without 'strong' math reasons to produce a winning hand at either side, itlr such part of outcomes will equal.
Imo we must spot such 'key cards imbalances' and not trying to win at the way more likely 'remaining' whimsical situations.

And btw, the lesser the amount of decks utilized to form a shoe greater will be the probability to catch those 'imbalances' by a proper 'key card' propensity assessment.
That's why in Vegas and in Asian casinos 8 decks are utilized instead of the EU 6 decks. ..."

Q1: (In blue above):
"impossible that any card distribution won't get at least one 'strong' shifted situation to happen very shortly."

     Do you mean in any one full shoe, or say within 3 spots,  5 spots? 8 spots? Other?
I do agree with your thesis above. Im just wondering what has been your experience with the upper end extreme u typically observe. In your opinion what are the merits for: Choosing to do a slow negpro or steep negpro til u catch a W, or no negpro=Flat, or Pospro, when pursuing this keyhole spot for the W?


Q2:(From In Red above) . 
"And btw, the lesser the amount of decks utilized to form a shoe greater will be the probability to catch those 'imbalances' by a proper 'key card' propensity assessment.
That's why in Vegas and in Asian casinos 8 decks are utilized instead of the EU 6 decks...."

I play at mostly Indian casinos in the (Midwest,USA) and it seems many utilize a 6-deck shoe  vs 8-deck shoe. I've asked WHY and no one can give a reason. Often, the reply is "I don't know that's just how we get them,...etc, OR that's what we are told to use,...etc." 
Regardless if factory shuffled or in-house shuffle.

Besides your above reasoning are there other reasons u perceive casinos would choose a 6-deck shoe vs 8-deck??
re: Streaks (same side, chop, other). What's  your opinion on :How does a 6-D vs 8-D shoe affect length of streaks?


Thx Again,kfb
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: klw on June 23, 2022, 06:50:15 AM
Surely a perceived edge is diluted the more decks a casino uses.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on June 23, 2022, 08:28:58 PM
If I understand the latest it would be the following. There has to be three or more repetitive winning hands and then you're looking at the cut. If it makes one or two on the cut, then the following would have to cut again and your trigger would be on the third spot to be a repetitive hand.

Example.

BBBB
P or PP
BB —- >>>>(this spot) <<<< Is the hand to wager on.



So Asym, on a score card laid horizontally or the main road, it would look like the picture below.  You are referring to the spot to wager where I put the X, CORRECT?

[attachimg=1]

Am I correct?
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on June 24, 2022, 03:50:29 PM
Hi klw

"...Surely a perceived edge is diluted the more decks a casino uses. ..."

I agree as IMO "our" edge is diluted (or their edge is enhanced) with the additional decks utilized by casino. Especially to the B wager.


Thx for post /Continued Success,

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 26, 2022, 10:38:48 PM
"impossible that any card distribution won't get at least one 'strong' shifted situation to happen very shortly."

     Do you mean in any one full shoe, or say within 3 spots,  5 spots? 8 spots? Other?
I do agree with your thesis above. Im just wondering what has been your experience with the upper end extreme u typically observe. In your opinion what are the merits for: Choosing to do a slow negpro or steep negpro til u catch a W, or no negpro=Flat, or Pospro, when pursuing this keyhole spot for the W?

HI KFB!!

With some experience and after having collected a large sample of live data, you'll see how much average 'concentrated' shifted situations will happen in relationship of the actual shoe.
At most situations, you do not need to spot them by quantity (long streaks of something) just by quality.
Pros I know do not bet that something must happen for long, instead that clusters of anything move and stop within 'more likely terms' surpassed whom they are not interested to bet 'em anymore.
For example, the 3/1-2/3 specific pattern obviously won't show up per every shoe dealt, even though the number of 3s is higher than average (as more 3s are showing up, more back-to-back 3s are going to happen, so enlarging the room for 1/2 clusters greater than 1).
Since the 'enemy' counterpart of 3/1-2/3 specific trigger is 3/1-2/2, we know some shoes will produce a 'long clusters of the latter pattern, making worthless or at least quite risky to set up a negpro on such shoes.
In some way, we should do a lot better to wait that a 'shorter' amount than average of 3s will be followed by the non bettable 3/1-2/1 pattern at some levels, then wagering when that final 1 becomes a 2 so enticing a 3 streak formation.
Notice that we could act in the same way by wagering doubles, but those patterns are more affected by volatility as they are more likely to happen (or not, when cards are so clumped to produce just singles or 3s).
The avg 3s rate per shoe is 8.75, so a possible negpro must take into account either this value and, more importantly, how many 'losing' patterns (3/1-2/2) had happened so far. (Along with other features I don't want to discuss here).

About 6-deck shoes vs 8-deck shoes

When facing 6-deck shoes, best variables to look for is whether shoes are manually shuffled and if very few cards are cut off from the play.
If those two parameters are fulfilled, it's virtually impossible to lose ITLR as patterns will be more consistent than at the 8-deck counterpart.
Meaning that many univocal patterns (and there are many 'clusters' to look for) will stand longer than at 8-deck shoes.
Now the 'quantity' takes a primary role about 'quality'.

It's now that the already mentioned 'code' strategy (if properly evaluated) will get the best of it by its various 'number' steps distribution.
Different code values move around the probability to be clustered or not, at the same time a perfect balanced code distribution is out of order. So some numbers must present clustered, especially if we merge two or more numbers together.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 26, 2022, 10:54:45 PM
Quote from: klw on June 23, 2022, 06:50:15 AM
Surely a perceived edge is diluted the more decks a casino uses.

Exactly.

If a finite number of 'key' cards move around a more limited field, odds that 'no key cards' distribution segments will whimsically affect the real outcomes will be way restricted than when using a larger field (more decks).

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 27, 2022, 12:52:35 AM
Quote from: alrelax on June 23, 2022, 08:28:58 PM
If I understand the latest it would be the following. There has to be three or more repetitive winning hands and then you're looking at the cut. If it makes one or two on the cut, then the following would have to cut again and your trigger would be on the third spot to be a repetitive hand.

Example.

BBBB
P or PP
BB —- >>>>(this spot) <<<< Is the hand to wager on.



So Asym, on a score card laid horizontally or the main road, it would look like the picture below.  You are referring to the spot to wager where I put the X, CORRECT?

[attachimg=1]

Am I correct?

Yeah Al, you are perfectly correct.

Let math experts to say otherwise: 'it could happen that after a 3 streak and a 1/2 pattern, everytime a precise double instead of a 3s streak will show up clustered for long'.
My answer: 'Really, you fkng dumbas.ses?'

Second more polite answer:

-There's an average number of 3s happening at every shoe dealt in the fk universe. So if the number of 3s are going to get a  lower value than average, it means that more singles and doubles clusters must happen. But only half of the times we'll find reasons to bet the above trigger.
On the other end, if a greater than avg number of 3s streaks is going to happen, it means that 3s are more likely coming out consecutively clustered and we won't bet a dime on that.

- Any card distribution (even whether manually and voluntarily placed knowing our strategies) will get a hard time to form 3s streaks followed by a single/double than by another double for long not fitting a kind of 'clustered' streaks pattern (collateral strategy).
In the meanwhile, 'non acute' players (99.9% of bac players at least) will bet toward streaks no matter what or to get a steady single/double line of some kind.

- Quite likely a possible 'losing' distribution is whenever 3s streaks are going to happen by a 1:2 improbable long occurence (average value is 1:3), that is when after a 3 streak a couple of 1/2 events show up making the above trigger as loser.
Anyway just a double is going to make us losers. Not mentioning that a 'clustered single/double player will be winning at all those spots.

- The more probable occurence of such trigger is 1 and not 0. At most situations, no need to chase unlikely trigger situations higher than 1 unless you've registered that too many '1' won't' be balanced by higher values.
Notice that a fair amount of times a single or a double happening at the start of the shoe won't be 1/2 clustered, so followed by a 3 streak, and again a 1 gap pattern happened.

Practical guidelines

if you like to set up a single/double strategy getting 3s limit 'walls' (so stopping or starting to bet up to get a single or a double happening), you know you'll get an avg amount of winning streaks vs losing streaks per shoe.
Of course it's way more likely to get a 1/2 line prolonging whenever a 3 streak will be followed by a single than by a double.
Consecutive 3 streaks do not interest us as being affected by a huge variance.
And obviously more likely (p=0.75) patterns will come out clustered and not singled or, at worst, as singled losers than multiple losers.
Nevertheless, this strategy will face the probability that most shoes are going to get at least one losing spot along the way (that is our beloved 3/1-2/3 trigger).

So we must choose to hope that something weird (albeit being 'natural') won't show up or that a relative unlikely scenario will come out sooner or later.

So let's go back to theory.

Differently than doubles, 3s are more consistent in their appearance (lower sd values): so itlr strong deviated values are more likely to affect doubles than 3s.
It's true that in rare cirucmstances such feature will be disappointed, yet if we'd make as a first condition to bet a 3 streak happening followed by a double (second condition), variance will be efficiently limited.

Now we get a random walk having its peaks of winning and losing hands distributed very differently than a possible 50/50 independent game and not necessarily taking into account the math edge favoring B side.

Instead of verifying such claim but following the scientifical method, let's try to falsify this hypothesis, for example setting up the same random walk now applied at doubles or whatever pattern you'd like to use.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on June 27, 2022, 03:24:00 PM
Thx ABG--Several gold nuggets in your posts above.

"...  Consecutive 3 streaks do not interest us as being affected by a huge variance..."


My somewhat related thought:


     When I see an exact: 3iar with 0 ties in the string (e.g.,PPP or BBB), I perk up on that next column (theorizing that it is more likely to go 2iar or 4 iar vs not exactly 3iar again. Of course as most will agree we also should consider that it has to go through 2iar to make it to 3iar and through 2iar/3iar to potentially make it to 4iar. So several stopgates in there to prevent it from going 4iar and or 4iar+.
Possibly a wagering opportunity in there.

re: 3iar columns repeating exactly for several columns without a 2iar or 4iar:
Just my way of thinking ITLR as I view most all things bac as being a game of cycles, rotating, cyclical, asymmetrical...etc  vs a game of symmetry. Though it will often appear on the tote board to always be attempting this evening-out summary, and converging toward this "evening out", it never does exactly. Nor does it have to for us to still view as an even-chance game that is one of the most fair games in the casino.

Just an opinion.

Thx again ABG for all your time/posts.

Continued Success,




Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 29, 2022, 12:46:21 AM
Hi KFB and thanks of your inputs, I appreciated them a lot!

Think, just my opinion, that a 'something' clustered more likely situation is going to get a way less variance than an isolated 'something' less likely  situation because 'rare events come out in clusters and then they disappear for long'.

Considering outcomes as singles, doubles and 3+s, itlr the most volatility happens at doubles just as they are the more likely occurrence itlr.
At the same time and taking into account that the vast majority of shoes are poorly shuffled, we'd bet toward NOT getting many 1-gap double spots, especially at the wonderful 6-deck shoes where things tend to be fairly polarized.

After all, itlr we'll get a more consistent 3s number rounding the average value than doubles number.
Moreover and considering baccarat as a game full of relatively short streaks, even shoe sections rich of doubles will make many winning points (anyway there are cutoff values , so in a way or another there's very little room to get our bets losing.

Next week I'll try to summarize such different strategies, anyway the keywords are 'gaps' or 'ranges'.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on June 29, 2022, 04:28:06 PM
Hi all,
Good post.

ABG:
"...Considering outcomes as singles, doubles and 3+s, itlr the most volatility happens at doubles just as they are the more likely occurrence itlr...."

re: and 3+s
     For clarification when u write in your posts: 3+s (Do you mean >=3 such as 3,4,5,6,...etc.  OR do you mean 4,5,6,....etc  )??


re: itlr the most volatility happens at doubles just as they are the more likely occurrence itlr...."

[/color]

     Personally I perceive my hit rate  is lowest in a group of doubles (especially if Ties interspersed). Mainly due to not being able to determine if my decision making was lucid or did I just get lucky and lock on to a 2-2-2-2 early. Which implies I was just fortunate to randomly guess insync with what was randomly occurring at this particular part of shoe. 

Sometimes I feel it is analogous to driving while blindfolded, or maybe driving down a two-way road while straddling the middle yellow line. One can sense we are indeed still on the road but also recognize we are possibly about to hit something. However, one doesn't know if we are going to hit the left ditch, right ditch, or oncoming traffic,....etc. Either way I know the current path can't last much longer, yet Im hesitant to detour.  :)

Thx again abg.


Continued Success To All,


Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 04, 2022, 12:15:59 AM
KFB, you are so good in considering things that casinos do not want to get us playing together, let alone by a 3-way team with Al.

3+= any triple streak, so 3, 4 or superior streaks lenght belong to this category.

Mathematicians consider bac outcomes as a endless succession of EV- spots, so assuming that every bet will be EV- no matter what. 
This is a strong fkng unbelievable sh.it as EV+ or EV- spots move around dynamical probabilities coming out from the actual card distribution getting well determined sd limits per shoe.
If such math experts would have studied RVM and M.v. Smoluchowski works, and of course they didn't, they would reach at different conclusions and hopefully they haven't.

Our ideas supported by tests made on very large live shoe samples rely upon strong scientifical findings, so you can be assured that itlr and after some variables had happened, a X event vs a Y event will come out by a larger probability than expected and, more importantly, capable to erase and invert the HE. At the very least capable to get very low sd values where a simple multilayered progression would get the best of it. Itlr.

We are so sure about that that we can present our findings at MIT or whatever the fk College of Math Experts one wish to call.
As we're talking about gambling bighornsh.it, we must put at stake some serious money. So let's see how many 'geniuses' are willing to prove that we're telling rattlesnakesh.it by risking a lot of money to prove they are right by getting math on their side.

The challenge is open to everyone so sure about math, providing:

- the sample must come out by a verified live shoes sample;

- we can choose the spots to wager at;

- we can choose the amount to bet;

-at least five or more bets must made per every shoe dealt (including ties);

-we can bet any side bet anytime we want;

- final results are registered only when at least a 1000 shoe LIVE sample was dealt.
(A factor privilenging math geniuses as the probability to be coincidentally ahead at a EV- game by betting at least 5000 spots is very very close to 0).

No kidding, we are really waiting for a such challenge.
Otherwise just shut the fk up, keeping to try to sell poker books.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on July 04, 2022, 07:32:25 AM
The highest majority, and I am talking about the extreme upper 90 percentile of the so called forum experts (actually drama specialists) preach off the cuff using their own secret formulas without any real results.  Guess their work was accomplished on the WoV or other similar free baccarat games.  Then once in awhile one surfaces writing numerous books such as Stephen Tabone, entering the forums with an 'A-Alpha' demeanor, coupled with endorsements by dozens of sock puppets (same exact IP addresses confirmed), etc.  Oh well, BTW don't forget the ultra combative experts that also contradict everything anyone basically posts while claiming they conquered the game of bac wagering sums as high as $15.00 and $25.00 a hand.  The kicker to it all is, when one posts real pictures at real tables with real score boards and real chips, they are accused of lying. 

Later, tme to watch All In The Family on TV.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 04, 2022, 10:53:09 PM
LOL, Al, so true what you've written!  :thumbsup:

From one part there are 'magical system sellers' that instead of betting thousands and thousands not giving a fk about selling few bucks systems or books swear they're right without providing any distant possible reason why they should, on the other end there are stubborn math geniuses that do not know a fk nothing about baccarat, yet considering any bet or series of bets a EV- proposition, no matter what.

Does a person want to get a carefully detailed scientifical approach to beat baccarat itlr?
Good, it's on sale at $5 millions.
Way better to extract some ideas presented in this site, doing some work and getting it for free.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on July 04, 2022, 11:11:43 PM
Anything and everything can happen in a shoe of baccarat. Nothing much duplicates itself all the time (but when it does that is the time to bet heavy and hard until it stops), but then on the other hand occasionally it does. One thing for sure, nothing will ever have a trigger and be declared a winning hand every time (or well over 50% in every shoe), in real baccarat, the way the highest amount of new forum members are so in search of. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 05, 2022, 12:06:11 AM
Ok, I know what you mean, but at baccarat the 'everything can happen' must be quite different than 'everything can happen' at roulette, for example.
Otherwise we are talking about the 'reading randomness' myth and we know the probability to win at an independent and taxed game is absolutely 0.

It's good to look for 'sky's the limit' situations only as we have ascertained that bac rules and features in certain circumstances (say, sections) will make more probable such things than a 50/50 perfect game. Otherwise we're simply gambling.

Am I wrong?

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on July 05, 2022, 12:22:46 AM
IMO and that of some very very experienced bac players, all recognize and attempt to focus on Sections with their Turning Points.  Wagering heavy, large and consistently on whatever is winning (any pattern/trends/presentments that you can identify and side with) is the absolute key in the game of baccarat. The skill comes about in advance mode for a player when he cuts down or stops wagering after repetitious wins within the Section before or immediately after it's Turning Point. Do not get attached or believe what just happened, has to or will happen again. And that's where a lot of us including myself gets sucked in occasionally. If you do, you will certainly give back your winnings and seriously hurt your buy in and/or your bank roll. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 06, 2022, 12:24:30 AM
We're talking the same language, then.

I prefer to set up things by more specific issues, you by a 'sections/turning points' feature but the overall product is the same.

A) sections

Patterns belonging to any class or multiple classes belonging to the same category.
They could be singles, streaks in various shapes of appearance: isolated, clustered, isolated by a 2 factor, clustered by a 2 factor, isolated/clustered by factors >2, predominances, unb plan #1 or #2, etc.

B) turning points

Everything that stops a given section considered under specific parameters.

Itlr A=B. So theorically no points of intervention could be spotted to erase/invert the HE.

Since bac shoes are affected by a huge asymmetry of some kind, we may infer that A and B occurences are more asymmetrically placed along any shoe. Thus in the vast majority of the times, a given 'room' space is going to show up, obviously restricted by very long streaks that tend to consume 'space'.

If we're restricting the field of operations, so assigning the same class to those long streaks, we'll get a better picture of how many sections are going to happen, at the same time neglecting a possible 'unlikely' strong predominance factor that might be a 'section' by itself.

IMO, the problem is that many players want to get too many 'sections' to happen, many times considering B successions (turning points) as A sections.

According to my statistical findings and knowing what the few pro bac players do, A sections must be chased very few times per shoe, and the same is true about B spots.
So such players are not interested about HOW LONG a section will happen but about WHEN a section will show up, so trying to restrict at most the B turning points feature.

Naturally there are no strict SURE guidelines to know when a B succession will shift to A, everything relies upon the statistical probability.
At the same time and considering a higher than 0.5 probability to show up, average values per shoe won't be so easily disappointed for long.

The simplest measurable way to consider A sections and B turning points is to take into account 3+ streaks (any 3 or greater lenght streak).
Now A sections are made of singles and doubles and B turning points are made of 3+s.
Even waiting that a first single or double will show up before trying to get a A section (so getting rid of rare back to back long 3+s consecutive streaks), in the vast majority of the times A sections won't happen clustered after a 3+ streak, so B turning points are going to be somewhat clustered (in relationship of their probability to happen).
Good thing is that in the vast majority of the times, such 1-gapped 3+s spots are rarely surpassing the 2 value. So making a fair room to get more likely A sections.

The same is true about doubles. No doubles successions are A sections and 1-gapped doubles sequences are B turning points.
The difference is that we will expect a higher amount of 1-gapped doubles than 3+s, nonetheless the variance values are quite different.
Meaning that we'll get a well greater probability of success to bet that A sections made of singles and doubles will happen (as the 3+s value is more likely roaming around averages) than to cross through the same doubles counterpart.

As you correctly state, we can't know what will happen at a given shoe.

So let's set up this strategy, having two different fictional players bettng for us.

First player gets his/her enemy at 1-gapped 3+s, so playing toward A sections made of singles and doubles greater than 1.
We know that on average he will get at least one losing spot per shoe.

Second player gets his/her enemy at 1-gapped doubles, so playing toward A sections made of singles and 3+s greater than 1.
We know that on average he will get a whimsical amount of losing spots (going from 0 to 4-5).

The only probability to get BOTH attacks losing for consecutive spots is whenever a precise hands succession is like as:

2-3-2-3... or 3-2-3-2...

In those scenarios we'll lose 4 bets and for that matter such successions are quite rare to happen, meaning that 1-gapped doubles and 3+s paced sequences are not so likely to happen.
Even if they happen, we know that such state is going to transform very soon into more likely A patterns, after all in a 4-pattern succession probability not to get at least one single is 1/16.

Now compare such 0.25 x 0.25 spot probability to lose with the overwhelming probability to get a more comfortable 0.75 x 0.75 probability and make such attacks to run on very long samples.
Maybe by utilizing a multilayered progression scheme either at positive side and/or at negative side.

Of course always taking into account that the more probable step to look for is 1 and clustered 1s, so we can't give a lesser damn about those very unlikely 2-3-2-3 or 3-2-3-2 occurences coming out clustered and surpassing the 1 cutoff point.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on July 06, 2022, 12:50:46 PM
3 to 5 Sections with Turning Points in all shoes.  Sections are the amount of hands. Turning Points are the beginning and end of Sections. As a mean average, 15-25 hands within a Section.

It's a given, not a choice or a desired marking point.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on July 06, 2022, 03:12:40 PM
Thx ABG /alrelax

Excellent  discussion/i will submit a couple followup thoughts/Q later tonight.



Continued Success,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on July 08, 2022, 05:44:41 AM
Hi all/ hope my fellow Americans had a great July 4th celebration for Independence Day. USA-USA-USA  :thumbsup:

Good discussion alrelax and ABG

ABG: "... Mathematicians consider bac outcomes as a endless succession of EV- spots, so assuming that every bet will be EV- no matter what.
This is a strong fkng unbelievable sh.it as EV+ or EV- spots move around dynamical probabilities coming out from the actual card distribution getting well determined sd limits per shoe.  ..."


Alrelax: "...Wagering heavy, large and consistently on whatever is winning (any pattern/trends/presentments that you can identify and side with) is the absolute key in the game of baccarat.    ..."

Both of your comments remind me of a statement I read on the forum a year or so back. I "think" it was forum veteran Gizmotron. Although he had many good thoughts on roulette, bac, et al even-chance wagers, the following statement is something I keep in the back of my mind as I start every new bac shoe.

To Paraphrase.  "Always bet on the best trend."

that's it. Very simplistic.

However, IMO hugely important as we will frequently see /interpret at least two trends occurring greater than expectation. Choose the BEST trend that is happening right now and follow it til it ends. Then STOP and start looking for a different one that may now become the new BEST trend.

An example I saw yesterday. This was at the very beginning of the shoe. Typically I start every shoe by waiting on the shoe to show the first outcome, the other side, then show the initial side once again, prior to considering my first wager. I may watch many more outcomes but I at least wait for the above.

The shoe started:

BT P B PP B PPP B P B P B PP   . At first glance we could easily see a couple wagering opportunities.

I considered betting for another P Win on the next P column following the PPP. However, the BEST trend thus far was B1 followed by a P once and wait for another B, and wager P for once, wait for a B,...etc.  The above pattern then continued on with BPBPBP and then it ended .  So see a B wager P once had a streak of nine(9iar). I was fortunate and picked up seven  of the nine hits.

Simply by following the BEST trend.

As I think most of u will agree: Sometimes there will also be times when there is no Best trend and only good/better trends. Im always cautious when no BEST(strong) trend has shown because if Im  too eager to wager its easy to  interpret that good or better trend as a BEST when it was really mediocre but because the shoe has been so non eventful we may erroneously perceive any trend as being bet worthy. 




Continued Success,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 10, 2022, 11:40:20 PM
Hi KFB!
Good thoughts and thanks for your examples made at real situations.

According to the scientifical paper I've provided some posts above, the only way to win at this game is to catch a kind of pattern more likely to occur at the actual shoe we're playing at.

Best but much volatile and 'brainless' approach is to hope that a given streak or series of streaks will prolong by a 'sky's the limit' feature; since at baccarat long streaks are uncommon we should discard this plan from our opportunities, after all 99% of players will mostly rely upon such rare occurence, sometimes not getting the guts to bet until the streak/s will end up.

Then there's the wide panorama of more likely occurences forming the vast majority of situations every bac player should face to cross a possible valuable pattern.

To better clarify such important issue, say we consider patterns as 1-step or 2-step W or L situations, we've seen that raising the probability from 0.5 to greater values will get a sensible impact over our long term results.

It's like we're trying to get the best of it by comparing actual statistical happenings considered in various forms as opposed as the constant math probability working for casinos.

Column key spots and row key spots


Along any shoe dealt there will be times where a kind of predominance must take a role in prolonging or stopping a column or a row. 
Math can't do anything about that, so if we're hoping that some additional rows should come out and after having examined the average lenght of previous streaks, we'll bet that back-to-back spots slowing down the natural row flow are less likely to come out.

At the same time, in the vast majority of the times, too rapid rows apparition will make more probable the 'stopping' streaks mood, always in terms of clustered or short-gapped spots.

In the vast majority of the times, those predominances move around more likely row clustered spots (codes) and same level or almost same level column situations taken at precise 'clustered' parameters.

I mean that considering both the row and the column issues by 'clustered forms' and taking into account probabilities higher than 0.5, maybe waiting for one or two fictional losing events to show up (so no need to employ a progression), the advantage a player will get over the house will be astoundingly high.

See you in a couple of days.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 13, 2022, 12:44:17 AM
If you are selectively betting with a 0.75% general probability, you put casinos to hope to get many clustered 0.25% situations to occur, so you don't necessarily need to get long winning clusters, just to avoid losing unlikely clustered situations.
And the best way to get rid of those situations is to put an alarm bell whenever a losing spot of such kind will come out as sh.it happens clustered.

Greater is the room consumed within a shoe to get those unlikely scenarios and lower will be the subsequent probability to win.
And higher is the hope to get such winning streaks being quite or very long and greater will be the probability to throw into the toilet a previous profit.

With some caveats.

Think to pretend to play baccarat the like a major poker tournament works.
Nobody has ever won a major poker tourney by setting up multiple bluffs (that can't double the stack in any way), actually one had won it by winning many key coin flip situations, along with many underdog spots or wonderful unlikely card distributions.

Make your $5.000 bankroll to face many 0.75 probability spots by betting whatever you wish, knowing that at baccarat some long winning streaks must happen and at the same time not fearing that your QQ or KK will be opposed to a KK or AA hand.
For most poker players, the objective is to finish ITM so after getting, say, a $7500 bankroll you'll be quite happy no matter what. Think that almost 90% of the players will abandon the tables by losing their $5k buy-in.

Of course at poker after having reached the ITM boundary, everything will be a kind of freeroll with a fair shot to get the best prizes whereas at baccarat you can risk to lose the ITM goal.
Yet at baccarat we can quit the game whenever we want not waiting to be eliminated.

On the other end and assuming a first prize of $350.000, a second prize of $210.000 and a third prize of $130.000, a bac player could choose the spots to risk his/her money by distinct fractions, mainly as many casinos won't allow bets higher than $20.000.
I mean no key 'in/out' hands work out.

Think that a poker tournament of such kind will be spread along at least a 32-35 hours of play.

Moreover your $5000 bankroll will play by a 1.06%/1.24% disadvantage but poker tournaments must overcome a well higher negative percentage at the start.

Comments

a) play baccarat only when you hope to transform your bankroll (before finishing it) into at least a 10x or 20x or more accomplishment, providing a proper amount of time employed at the tables.

b) defend your fkng bankroll at all costs, avoiding the most part of st.u.pid coin flip confrontations

c) do not be shy to bet all your money (when allowed) in some selected appropriate situations. It's the same situation poker players will do everytime but unless they hold AA (220:1 odds), such players do not know how favorite they are. Most of the times they are flipping a coin for their tournament life.

d) consider that to multiply your bankroll you have to get the best of it at some math unfavorite situations more than once (for example winning a P wager having a 4 initial point vs a 7 B point and catching as third card a 4)

e) at baccarat no need to employ ICM poker strategies as blinds/bankroll cannot affect your play in any way.

f) be patient the same way poker players are. You can't hope to win with your 2-8 the same way valuable bac patterns are not coming out so frequently, especially after having lost two or more hands in a row.

g) let casinos to lose serious money and not playing by risking a huge bankroll to win a measly amount.

h) finally it's true that at baccarat some long winning situations could happen at the start of the session making a player a huge winner (a far difference with poker tourneys),  yet those are very rare occurences and being prepared to survive a lot of hands is, imo, the viable way to get the best of baccarat.

Next week I'll make some real examples about that.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on July 13, 2022, 01:17:28 AM
As you said, "mainly as many casinos won't allow bets higher than $20.000".

For serious play, it is worth going to, Rivers Casino in Des Plaines, Illinois has between 24-30 baccarat tables and the majority are at $10.00 minimum with a max at $100,000.00. 

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on July 13, 2022, 03:46:04 PM
Excellent list above ABG.

re: List (a--g) and I agree wholeheartedly with most of them.

"a) play baccarat only when you hope to transform your bankroll (before finishing it) into at least a 10x or 20x or more accomplishment, providing a proper amount of time employed at the tables."
     IMO we need to win at least 12x our avg buyin every once in a while, not necessarily in a single shoe but across several shoes(meaning 1 buyin generates >=12x said buyin, prior to buyin dying),  as -Variance and the natural volatility is always present /grinding us down. I'm not saying shoot-for-the-moon every shoe or session, however, when it is there we must pounce.

"b) defend your fkng bankroll at all costs, avoiding the most part of st.u.pid coin flip confrontations"
     I agree for the most part, however, my personal opinion may differ some on this. IMO we must defend our bankroll--Yes. However, there is a fine line between defending our bankroll, and squeezing it so hard we don't allow ourselves to really go for it(When the opportunity presents), all because we are too stingy and not willing to risk said Buyin. Yes, we will have a higher shoe win percentage, however, we may also have a smaller ROI.

     This is an area I erred in when I first started gambling. Yes I had a win % >=90% by shoe. However, there were shoes I should have made >= 3-5x my buyin, easily.
One shoe I still kick myself as it only had 1(one) 3iar (ppp), the whole shoe. That ppp was near the end. So no BBB or 3iar Opp the whole shoe , with may ties. I was "guarding" my buyin (I think was $2K) by wagering ($30-40-50, down to $30) betting for B streaks. A predetermined JackArse plan I probably read in a book by some famous/expert gambler--I mean author.
I try not to think about it much as I would need to undergo therapy,lol.


thx again abg,


Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 17, 2022, 11:19:07 PM
Hi KFB!

Thanks for your words and thanks for your inputs!

Yesterday norwegian Espen Jorstad won the WSOP Main Event collecting $10 millions.
(BTW, before canceling it, someone could remember I've made a post by 'guessing' that the eventual Main event WSOP winner or runner-up would be a EU player, I've guessed right and winning some money on it).
The prestigious title from Germany went to Norway.

In an hypothetical game where a given amount of starting money can be bet by an 'all-in' and limitless procedure and by facing a kind of infinite coin flip propositions, a player would transform a $10.000 initial investment into a 1000x $10.000.000 (and more) prize by winning 10 hands in a row (1:1024 odds).

Naturally it would be a utter nonsense to compare a poker tournament having 8663 entrants with this hypothetical game, nevertheless at both scenarios the final winner would be labeled as 'particularly lucky' (and definitely skilled).
Not mentioning that maybe 70% or more percentage of WSOP Main Event entrants have no one single probability to win it. The famous 'dead money' poker pros would rely upon in order to increase their EV.   

What I wish to emphasize is the role of 'time' on both games, as WSOP Main Event winner will be awarded after 8 days of play    (each day lasting about 10 hours or so), whereas at the game prospected a super lucky person could win $10m right at the start or within a very limited amount of time. Actually we know this can't be done as this game doesn't exist in reality, mostly because no one casino in the world would accept wagers superior than maybe $500.000.

Another difference is that at poker tournaments after around 80%/90% players pool has been eliminated, every surviving player will be ITM (in the money); so freerolling for the entire enchilada by getting a small, moderate or huge profit for their initial investment.

Now, let's consider a real game where we could set up a kind of 'poker tournament philosophy', so trying to get the most value of our buy-in (tiny fraction of our bankroll). It's baccarat.

1) We could set up our goal (that is our 'first prize') by hoping that our buy-in will be transformed into 5x, 10x, 15x, 20x or more factor, always considering the possibility to quit the tourney whenever we want.
But we ought to remember that poker players making real money aim to get the final three prizes, so finishing ITM doesn't make the job.

2) It's impossible to win a poker tourney in the early-intermediate stages of it and it's very unlikely to win at baccarat the above best prizes within too short played sessions.

3) Poker tournaments make the 'surviving mood' one of the primary  tools to aim for.. At baccarat this thing is way more important as profitable patterns need some time to show up. But, differently than  poker, they'll come out.

4) At baccarat we don't have to post blinds and ante, we can 'fold' whenever we want without losing a dime, that is not playing a hand until we wish.
Moreover there are no progressive blind limits, forcing us to play or push some hands unnecessarily.

5) At baccarat we could set up many 'back-up' plays impossible to make at poker tournaments (allowed at some cash games).
I mean that after having lost a hand, we could make the same bet maybe enlarged at the very next hand or next trigger we've decided to take as 'good'.

6) To eventually win a lot of money, we must be willing to put a large part or the entire part of our stake at risk at the possible favorite opportunties, maybe by betting a two-step 1/3 then 2/3 wager.
It's a sound math move as a 0.75% probability cannot be silent for long and of course casinos are more worried about an i.di.ot betting huge few times then by facing 'wise' players betting light-moderate sums for long.

7) At baccarat we can't bluff to win, yet baccarat patterns must take a more likely line sooner or later.
It's just a matter of time (time!) that 0.75% probability events will produce univocal steady lines.

8) Baccarat is the second best game to play in a casino, having the least unfavourable negative edge. Featuring the luxury to bet the side we wish anytime we wish.

Next how to play a given bankroll as a poker tournament buy-in.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 17, 2022, 11:42:31 PM
Quote from: alrelax on July 13, 2022, 01:17:28 AM
As you said, "mainly as many casinos won't allow bets higher than $20.000".

For serious play, it is worth going to, Rivers Casino in Des Plaines, Illinois has between 24-30 baccarat tables and the majority are at $10.00 minimum with a max at $100,000.00.

Good to know, those are very good limits!!!!
Thanks Al!

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on July 18, 2022, 02:09:03 PM
Thx ABG

"6) To eventually win a lot of money, we must be willing to put a large part or the entire part of our stake at risk at the possible favorite opportunities, maybe by betting a two-step 1/3 then 2/3 wager.
It's a sound math move as a 0.75% probability cannot be silent for long and of course casinos are more worried about an i.di.ot betting huge few times then by facing 'wise' players betting light-moderate sums for long.

7) At baccarat we can't bluff to win, yet baccarat patterns must take a more likely line sooner or later.
It's just a matter of time (time!) that 0.75% probability events will produce univocal steady lines.

8) Baccarat is the second best game to play in a casino, having the least unfavourable negative edge. Featuring the luxury to bet the side we wish anytime we wish.

Next how to play a given bankroll as a poker tournament buy-in.
..."



It's a sound math move as a 0.75% probability cannot be silent for long and of course casinos are more worried about an i.di.ot betting huge few times then by facing 'wise' players betting light-moderate sums for long.

     I agree

More later on this/look forward to next installment.


Continued Success,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 19, 2022, 11:50:15 PM
Playing baccarat as a poker tournament


Principal target to aim for is that, generally speaking, a poker tournament needs many hours to be finished so no 'quit when you're ahead' nonsense will take place, meaning that as long as your buy-in isn't depleted you still have a chance to win it.
Hence at baccarat you must 'survive' at a given number of shoes (poker hands), hoping to bet huge at those relatively rare possible favourable opportunities coming around, at the same time folding (no betting) or wagering little when you are in doubt.
Not forgetting that nearly 90% of poker tourney players will be eliminated before getting ITM and losing their entire buy-in. 

Second important issue, imo, is that in the vast majority of the times poker players aren't obviously entitled to win many back-to-back hands, whereas at baccarat such consecutive winning hands are more likely to happen, especially and foremost when utilizing a 0.75% general probability.
This is the main factor to focus upon, as given a 'large' part of shoes played, the losing 0.25% part will take its role sooner or later.
That means to 'fold' (no betting) many hands belonging to a possible winning pattern that afterwards(!) we've found as a missed opportunity.

In poorer words, we can't set up too many 'all-in' spots within restricted terms even though they are double-step conceived as 'sh.i.t' is around every corner.

Third, at baccarat we can confide that 'good patterns' or 'bad patterns' will come out clustered and very rarely by a kind of 'hopping' long sequences.

Poker hands and baccarat patterns

Differently than poker, at baccarat we should evaluate our options by a simple level of thought: either the next hand (or two next hands) belong to a given pattern or not.
Assuming the 'two next hands' variable, either we'll be slightly right or terribly wrong.

When taking a 0.75% probability, we should know how many times on average objective patterns will come out per shoe, so possibly enlarging the probability to win some 'all-in' two-step spots.
Such bac patterns move by two different succession lines, the horizontal line (consecutive quality) and the vertical line (consecutive lenght).
Both more likely producing 'clustered' successions surpassing the least minimum amount to look for, that is 1.

So far I've described the tools to look for such clustered events, best no-brainer approach is to adopt my unb plan #1 taken as a whole or splitted into two B and P different lines.
The same about derived roads.

Unb plan #1 relies on the normal probability some singles must happen, but even though the streaks/singles ratio seems to be hugely shifted toward the left, some consecutive lenght streaks (say doubles and 3s or 3s and 4s) must come out clustered at some point.

Not mentioning the already described tool to think baccarat shoes as number successions.

Finally consider that a 0.75% probability will get rare consecutive isolated winnings greater than 2, so we have plenty of room to set up our 'all-in' two-step moves, especially when previous winning clusters were quite long.

Baccarat is a game of psoitive and negative clusters, period.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on July 20, 2022, 04:54:55 PM
Thx for post abg.

RE: "So far I've described the tools to look for such clustered events, best no-brainer approach is to adopt my unb plan #1 taken as a whole or splitted into two B and P different lines.
The same about derived roads...."

This phrase and specifically the part in bold is not clear. I know u have written numerous times about unb#1. However, Im not clear what u mean :~~  "split into two B and P differnt lines."

You might also give a specific example of how u play(meaning wager)  unb#1,  as a refresher for us.
/thx in advance.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 25, 2022, 01:00:28 AM
Hi KFB!

Unb plan #1 relies upon the probability to get a fair singles vs streaks ratio along with a kind of asymmetrical streaks distribution considered within the doubles/3+ streaks range.

Simplifying, we'll set up a two events vs one strategy, where one event remains as a steady winner (singles) at the same time confiding that specific streaks (doubles or 3+ streaks) will come out clustered at least for 1 point along the way.

So if singles=1, doubles=2 and 3+s=3, we'll bet that the 1-2 or 1-3 two events will last at least one time, thus we're discarding the 2-3 or 3-2 sequences that must be attacked by another point of view.
In a word, before betting we'll wait for two such 1-2 or 1-3 events to come out at least one time, 'hoping' they'll prolong by two different levels: singles and/or the same streak (2 or 3+) happened so far.

When the number of singles is roaming around averages or slightly below averages and unless a long singles streak happened right at the start of the shoe, the number of 1 - (2-3) permutations makes this plan invincible as a possible '2/3+ streaks' hopping needs a kind of 'perfect unlikely' pace to show up. 
Naturally whenever the singles/streaks ratio happen to be moderated or strongly shifted toward the left, winning is a joke.

The opposite situations, that is shoes rich of streaks and poor of singles makes this plan less straightforward as now we ought to transfer the distribution problem from horizontal to vertical.

Of course I'm just talking about a simple 'Big Road' result succession, there's another B or P events registration taken separately (not mentioning derived roads, again splitted withing red and blue spots and so on) 

Examples.

Aria casino shoe, september 2019.

Big Road (first hand is P)
3-1-1-2-1-1-1-3-3-1-3-1-1-2-3-1-1-3-2-1-2-1-1-2-1-1-3-1-1-3-2-1-3-2-1-2

Unb plan #1 (1-2 and 1-3):

+ - + + + - + + + + + - - + + - + + + + + + - + + + - - - +

Now let's consider my unb plan #1 splitted into two different B and P registrations.

P= 3-1-1-1-3-3-1-3-1-2-2-1-1-3-1-2-3-1

B= 1-2-1-3-1-1-2-1-3-1-1-2-1-1-3-1-2-2

Unb plan #1 applied to those two different P and B registrations (lines):

P= + + + + + + + - + + + - + - -

B= + - + + - + - + + - + + - + - +

Now I'm asking: is that shoe forming whimsical positive spots denying the natural math impact over the outcomes?
No fkng way, eventually every line got all cumulative negative amounts (plus vig).
Nonetheless, I'm certain that most acute bac players will get the best of it by selectively betting some spots.

One more shoe, now a streaks rich shoe.

Aria casino shoe, september 2019

First hand is B.

Big Road
1-2-1-2-1-3-1-2-1-3-1-3-1-3-2-1-1-2-3-3-3-3-3-2-1-3-1-3-1-2-3-...

Unb plan #1:

+ + + - + - + - + + + - + + - - + + + - -

B= + - + + + + + + +

P= - -

Notice that streaky shoes make less likely to happen symmetrical long lines at B and P lines taken from a unb plan #1 point of view.
In this shoe we had just one option to take, that is by folding most of the hands, thus betting very few spots or nothing at all.

It's true that the unlikely 3-3-3-3-3 sequence (or that P side formed all streaks and just one single) would have made many recreational players as winners, yet do not forget the word 'unlikely'.
People making a living about numbers rely upon more probable events to show up and not chasing 'miracles'.

For that matter even this shoe constitutes a wonderful opportunity to win several hands in a row, providing what to look for, now by a 'more likely propensity' to happen, already traced in my thread.
 
Good news is that whenever the 'horizontal' way seems to fail, the 'vertical' one takes a decisive long term role.
Simplyfing, streaky shoes that tend to deny a steady 'horizontal' unb plan #1 advantage, will distribute by very low variance lines, meaning that some streaks cutoff points won't follow the (unbeatable) expected values.

Back to this 'streaky' shoe.

Let's analyze more deeply the streaks nature at Big Road (number displayed is the streak exact lenght):

2, 2, 3, 2, 6, 5, 3, 2, 2, 5, 4, 3, 3, 3, 2, 4, 3, 4.

If you've read my previous posts you promptly see that no hopping situation will last for long (if any), so only an id.io.t may miss what is more likely to happen at some point of the shoe.

To get a better idea of what I'm talking about, let's consider another streaky real shoe, now considering just exact streak values:

4, 4, 4, 2, 5, 2, 6, 3, 3, 3, 4, 2, 4, 3, 4, 4, 3.

Notice the different cutoff points making 'clustered streak events', anyway even this shoe would be hugely beatable by other tools, so let's provide the complete shoe's texture (now streaks are considered under the 2 or 3 simplyfied form):

First hand is P.

1, 3, 1, 3, 3, 1, 2, 3, 1, 1, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 1, 3, 1, 2, 3, 1, 3, 1, 3, 1, 3, 3, (2)

Unb plan #1:

+ + + + - - + - - + + - - + + + + + + (-1)

Unb plan at P side:

- + - + + -

Unb plan at B side:

+ + + + + + + + + + (-1)

In some way we got plenty of room to spot two-step 'all-in' situations without having to wait for 'premium' poker hands.

Just out of curiosity let's see how this shoe perfroms at three derived roads (unb plan à1 dsplayed with + and - signs):

byb:

1, 2, 3, 2, 1, 3, 3, 1, 1, 2, 2, 1, 2, 1, 1, 3, 1, 2, 1, 3, 2, 2, 3, 1, 1, 1, 3, 1, 3, 2, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1.

- - + + + - + + + + + - + - + - - + + + + + - +

sr:

1, 3, 1, 2, 2, 1, 2, 3, 3, 3, 1, 1, 2, 2, 1, 3, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 3, 2, 3, 1, 1, 1.

+ - + + + - + - + + - + - + + + + + + + - - + +

cr:

1, 2, 1, 3, 3, 2, 1, 1, 1, 2, 3, 2, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, ,2, 3, 3, 3, 2, 3, 2, 1, 2, (2)

+ - + - + + + - + + + + + + - + (-1)

Splitting the derived roads results into blue (B) and red (R) spots:

byb:

B= 1, 3, 1, 3, 1, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 2, 3, 1, 3, 3, 3, 2, 1

unb plan #1: + + + - + + + + + - + + + -

R= 2, 2. 3. 1. 2. 1. 1. 3. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1.

unb plan #1: - + + - - + + + + +

sr:

B= 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 1, 2, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 1, 2, 1, 1

unb plan #1: + - - + + + + + + + + +

R= 3, 2, 1, 3, 3, 1, 2, 3, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 1

unb plan #1: - + + - - 

cr:

B= 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 2, 2, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 1, (2)

unb plan #1: + + + + + + - (-1)

R= 2, 3, 3, 1, 1, 3, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 2, 2, 2.

unb plan #1: + + + + - + -

Finally all three derived roads considered by a succession of r and b spots:

byb:

1, 2, 3, 2, 1, 3, 3, 1, 1, 2, 2, 1, 2, 1, 1, 3, 1, 2, 1, 3, 2, 2, 3, 1, 1, 1, 3, 1, 3, 2, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1.

Unb plan #1:

- - + + + - + + + + + - + - + - - + + + + + - +

sr:

1, 3, 1, 2, 2, 1, 2, 3, 3, 3, 1, 1, 2, 2, 1, 3, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 3, 2, 3, 1, 1, 1.

unb plan #1:

+ - + + + - + - + + - + - + + + + + + + - - + +

cr:

1, 2, 1, 3, 1, 3, 2, 1, 1, 1, 2, 3, 2, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 2, 3, 2, 1, 2 (2)

unb plan #1:

+ - + + - + + + - + + + + + + - + (-1)

oOoOo

At baccarat there are no 'imperfect informations' to look for, meaning we do not need to overthink a fkng nothing.
We can't bluff of course, but we can't be bluffed either.

Therefore no game theory applies at baccarat, we're just playing a taxed game where at some points some events are more likely to appear than others.

As long as a 312 or 416 cards shoe is ready to be played and cards utilized are burnt from the play, a given number of asymmetrical patterns will take place, either for bac rules and, more importantly, for the actual card distribution.
Ignorant people (math experts first) when talking about baccarat directly fall into the Dunning-Kruger effect category.
The more they think to know about baccarat, greater it's their incompetence on the subject.

Good for us.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on July 25, 2022, 05:54:34 PM
Thx AsymBacGuy
I appreciate the elaborate details and refresher on unb1. Several nuggets in your essay.

I like this approach: "... Simplifying, we'll set up a two events vs one strategy, where one event remains as a steady winner (singles) at the same time confiding that specific streaks (doubles or 3+ streaks) will come out clustered at least for 1 point along the way.   ...."


"...When the number of singles is roaming around averages or slightly below averages and unless a long singles streak happened right at the start of the shoe, the number of 1 - (2-3) permutations makes this plan invincible as a possible '2/3+ streaks' hopping needs a kind of 'perfect unlikely' pace to show up...."


IMO even when the long singles streak shows at the start we often can get into anticipatory mode / still exploit. In other words by utilizing that as a signal as to what potentially could show next(meaning NOT singles). In my experience when we see anything to an extreme we should start looking for NOT that in the upcoming section or sections. I think most will agree its never guaranteed but the probability does indeed shift a little for events different than whatever the most recent extreme group of events.

Thx again ABG as a lot of good material above.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 26, 2022, 08:50:43 PM
Thanks KFB!!!

Quote from: KungFuBac on July 25, 2022, 05:54:34 PM

IMO even when the long singles streak shows at the start we often can get into anticipatory mode / still exploit. In other words by utilizing that as a signal as to what potentially could show next(meaning NOT singles). In my experience when we see anything to an extreme we should start looking for NOT that in the upcoming section or sections. I think most will agree its never guaranteed but the probability does indeed shift a little for events different than whatever the most recent extreme group of events.


Very true, that's why a 'too long' ONE EVENT winning streak coming out at the start of the shoe could endanger the strategy at upcoming hands.
After all we need just one 'NO single' event anticipating any long singles streak and every hand will be a winner.

In fact, let's take a 8-long singles succession:

1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1  ?? (no two-events trigger)

2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1  (7 wins, 0 losses)

3-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1 (7 wins, 0 losses)

Anyway we should realize (and as you know very well) that rare shoes keep producing 'extremes' for quite long time, in this strategy it means 'the nemesis' may remain silent for quite long time (jackpot shoes).
And of course even the 'favourable triggers' might stay just at the 'potential' side of probability (thus erasing any jackpot opportunity).

Since we have valid reasons to think that shoes are not so 'randomly' shuffled, when in doubt it's more advisable to bet toward a thing (or things) that happened or that haven't happened for a very restricted amount of time than looking for 'potential' probabilities.
Up to a point, of course.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 27, 2022, 12:25:53 AM
Winning and losing flows

Winning and losing successions move around precise general probabilities, that is anytime we're joining a table the probability to be 'right' or 'wrong' or 'no right no wrong' aren't placed symmetrically at each of those three scenarios.
In some sense we are destined to either win or lose, making the 'breaking even' the least scenario to happen.
We may get a better idea about that by considering a simple four-hand betting strategy that of course could be prolonged infinitely.

Within a four-hand betting, 5 patterns will get more Ws than Ls and they are (vig is ingnored for simplicity):

WWWW (+4)
WWWL (+2)
WWLW  (+2)
WLWW (+2)
LWWW (+2)

It's a 5/16 (31.25%) probability

The specular 5 losing patterns are:

LLLLL (-4)
LLLW  (-2)
LLWL (-2)
LWLL (-2)
WLLL (-2)

Again a 31.25% probability.

The remaining 6 patterns out of the possible 16 patterns, those making a 'break even' scenery are (neutral patterns):

WWLL (0)
WLWL  (0)
WLLW  (0)
LWWL  (0)
LLWW  (0)
LWLW  (0)

Therefore per every 4-hand sequence we'd attack, general probability to be ahead or behind vs breaking even is 62.5%/37.5% (odds 1.66:1).

In some way, if we were able to 'guess' whether any new 4-hand sequence will fall into the final W or L category, we might get a substantial edge over the house, at the same time knowing that a kind of back-up plan could act along the way (neutral patterns).

Moreover, we are not forced to bet all the four hands forming the final pattern and/or to bet the very first hand of the new pattern.
For example, if the first hand of the new pattern is L, we know there's only one possibility out of 8 to get a final winning pattern and 'backup' neutral patterns will be placed by a 3:5 ratio.
And the same features happen at patterns starting with a W when considering final losing patterns.

Anyway the fact that we may 'artificially' making neutral or even losing 4-hand sequences into winning ones (and vice versa) shouldn't shift the natural flow of the outcomes made of winning, losing or neutral occurences.

So far I've considered perfect 50/50 propositions, thus we may apply the same concept to a greater probability and you know what I'm referring to.

oOoOo

It's the hands not played that make you a long term winner

Even the few very talented bac players liking to bet a huge amount of hands know that when the 'environment' changes they must put a stop at their betting.
After all, less bets made=less mistakes made and no progressive plan could erase or mitigate the general EV-, especially when things seem not going in their favor.

Back again to the 4-hand sequence results.

An 8-deck shoe provides around a 16 or 17 four-hand sequences each providing final winning, losing or neutral results no matter what's the strategy employed.
Obviously a steady betting Banker strategy will get more W patterns than a steady betting Player strategy could get, anyway the ROI difference is 0.18%.
Now let's take into account how the W, L or N sequences will be distributed per every shoe, not giving a fk whether a winning or losing sequence got a relatively rare +4 or -4 units win. I mean just the quality matters.

So a first degree of 'guessing' is made upon the probability to get W, L or N events coming out clustered or not and at which degree.  So being considered by a real final quality.
Example: W, L, L, N, L, N, W, N, L, L, N, N, W, L, N, W, L.

Putting things into a W/L  'gap' concept and considering N as 'not existent' we get: 1, 3, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1.

Then we could make a 'more educated' guess by knowing the first hand of the new 4-hand pattern.
If it's a L, odds that the final pattern will be a W are 1:8. And N happenings are 3:5 underdog. 
The same about a final L pattern starting with a W.

A 0.75% probability will move around the same concept but by different tools we'll see next week.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: klw on July 28, 2022, 08:46:57 PM
Hi As -- I really appreciate the information you present on here. The 4 hand approach is very interesting to me. I like this type of breakdown of the hands and am going through my hand history to see for myself.

Cheers.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 31, 2022, 11:50:19 PM
Hi klw and thanks for your interest!

Itlr and just considering infinite and simple 4-hand sequences, the probability to get a final neutral result (W=2 and L=2) will be always underdog (unfavorite) vs a kind of light (+2) or strong (+4) unbalancement happening at either W or L side.
Of course we could easily face long series of WLLLWLLLWLLL or LWWWLWWWLWWW opposite situations making difficult to grasp the final outcome knowing the quality nature of the very first result, yet a kind of 'clustering effect' must work at baccarat as key cards (and/or 'miracle' cards) cannot be distributed proportionally along any shoe dealt.
Otherwise this simple plan could beat other games as roulette, for example, where each spin is completely independent and randomly ruled.

Raising the winning probability

Say we make an infinite series of 4-bets getting an overall winning probability of 0.75% by a 1-2 unit limited progression.
Now 'breaking even' 4-hand sequences are (vig ignored for simplicity):

WWWL (+1, +1, +1, -3) = 0

WWLW  (+1, +1, -3, +1) = 0

WLWW (+1, -3, +1, +1) = 0

LWWW  (-3, +1, +1, +1) = 0.

Any other possible W/L four-hand combination makes very different final scenarios ranging from the best possible scenario being WWWW (+4) to the very 'unfortunate' situation that is a LLLL spot (-12).
Naturally the LLLL spot is three times less probable than the WWWW pattern.

In some way we know that a mechanical 4-hand W/L pace will get more probable a W clustered situation to show up at some point and of course we can't get a W cluster if the very first hand is a L.
At the same time, without considering the actual 4-hand pace, we might fall into the mistake to take any single W or, worse, any single L as a valuable trigger to consider our options. If this should be the case, the game wouldn't exist at all.

In fact any shoe we're dealing with is made by 'expected W/L ratios' and 'actual W/L ratios', and we know that utilizing a 0.75% winning probability the general ratio to look for is 3:1.
Naturally the very first hand of any new 4-hand pattern coming out will make more or less probable to get a final neutral, winning or losing sequence more likely prolonging or stopping at any level.

It's like we are fairly advantaged to guess which 'clustered form' will more likely take place along the way.

In a couple of days we'll see why.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on August 01, 2022, 12:00:03 AM
" At the same time, without considering the actual 4-hand pace, we might fall into the mistake to take any single W or, worse, any single L as a valuable trigger to consider our options. If this should be the case, the game wouldn't exist at all."

Absolutely true.  I think I just touched on this a few minutes ago. 

https://betselection.cc/index.php?topic=11429.msg70321;topicseen#msg70321

IMO, following any set protocol will possibly even you out if you win, however the loss factor will most likely  outweigh the profitability factor by large amounts.

Thanks.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 01, 2022, 06:55:38 PM
Thank You Al!
Your post Is really good, tomorrow I'll try to make additional comments.
(Today we are too busy to destroy a fkng casino, no jokes)

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 03, 2022, 12:38:36 AM
Imo the clustering effect is the best tool we should exploit to beat baccarat for the relative inherent difficulty to distribute moderate or long 'hopping' opposite event sequences.
Of course longer are such more likely 'clustered' events better are our probabilities to win and possibly to win huge.
Whenever a clustered situation of fair lenght happens, we might win one unit or two coincidentally, meaning we can take triggers at different values and not necessarily by a simple 'no hopping' distribution.

An example is when 3s are silent making a single-double betting plan particularly appealing and the same is true about doubles (now singles and 3s become good triggers). At both situations very rarely winning streaks stay at a 2 minimum clustered level for long.

Anyway even taking into account the general probability things will distribute on average, very often what seems to be 'unlikely' tend to come out strongly 'clustered', meaning there's no point to 'force' general probabilities to show up as the actual card distribution denies it.
In such occurences we have to choose whether to 'chase' an unlikely world or simply wait for better opportunities (aka next shoe/s).

Mathematicians correctly state that those natural 'flows' are just a by product of math values, stressing on the unimportance of choosing triggers that might erase or invert the HE. As they simply do not exist.
But they are right only when they consider a baccarat production as completely random, at the same time not considering a kind of 'conditional probability' coming out from an actual card distribution affecting different random walks applied to the same source of results.

That's why Alrelax advices (that in no way suggests a simple trend following strategy or complicated progression schemes) take an important value.
In poorer words no one 'mechanical' system would be superior than a careful observation made at very large real live shoe samples.

How to link a 'general probability with an actual probability' strategy

Keywords are to think the game as 'probability ranges' (probably it's the same concept of Al's sections and turning points') and as defects of randomness. 

There are infinite 416 card combinations (ok, but 128 cards have the same 0 value), yet every shoe dealt in the universe will fall into more likely ranges of probability.
Now either by a general probability point of view and, more importantly, by an actual point of view (randomness flaws), any sequence will show up by a slight different degree of apparition than what expected values dictate. In a way or another, of course.
We know that when we bet B side we must get at least a 51.3% winning probability to make profitable such bets and we need just a 50.1% winning probability to get an edge over the house while betting P side.

Of course nobody is going to give a fk about those values (just hoping to win no matter what), but they should as this is the only sure factor to know whether we're really playing a EV+ game or being just temporarily lucky (or naturally 'unlucky').
That's why baccarat is the second best game casinos make more money with.

Hence patterns distribution ranges matter, there's a general probability and an actual probability to assess both getting more likely situations to show up, especially when considered by a back-to-back probability.
That is we must discard many extremely deviated situations potentially or actually coming out, unless we have reasons to ride  them.

This is a very simplified list to look for:

1) Consider baccarat ranges just in terms of 1s, 2s and 3s. An exception is displayed later.

2) When in doubt or unless your strategy dictates to bet B to form or limit some patterns, do not bet a dime at Banker side as you'll be 11.62:1 underdog to cross through an asymmetrical hand favoring B).
It's true that it's more likely to encounter long B streaks than long P streaks but itlr such attempts are worthless.

3) Besides side bets, the only edge we can rely upon to beat baccarat is exploting the 'clustering effect'.
Math 'experts' will teach us that this effect will be proportionally distributed with opposite (losing) situations but they are deadly wrong.

4) The clustering effect must be exploited either by a simple 1-level back-to-back property or by concidentally betting an already moderate or long 'same events' sequence. Of course at both scenarios the main aim to look for is just one win (what baccarat pros do).

5) Many sections of the shoe are unplayable and this doesn't necessarily mean that after a given series of unplayable sections a kind of favourable opportunites will arise.
Do not rule out the possibility that cards are so whimsically arranged to get few clustered profitable events and the idea to bet on such 'unwanted' scenarios is out of order.

6) Always take into account the doubles or 3s pace of apparition considered at various portions of the shoe and in relationship of their average final value.
Of course singles make a huge impact of such doubles or 3s gaps.

7) A corollary of the #1 point, it's a kind of another invincible plan:
Set up two different random walks (SRW) applied at streaks clusters of precise lenght.
SRW #1 bets toward doubles and triples (exact triples) clustered at a given level, so any 3+ streak is a sort of boundary.
SRW #2 bets toward exact triples and 4 streaks clustered at a given level getting as 'boundary' any 4+ streak.

Those are 0.75% probability random walks that starting at a 0 point must move toward the left (lòsing side) or toward the right (winning side) by a 3:1 W/L pace. But there's a general propensity regarding which clusters of such events we'll take as triggers. (Differently to brownian motion, for example).
And differently to the common random walk concept applied to an independent (and symmetrical) source of results, odds that any class of events will be affected by relative low dispersion values at losing side are astoundngly high and, for that matter, itlr such RWs will infinitely, albeit slowly, direct toward the positive right side.
And I'm not implying to always consider more valuable P streaks lenght to stop than B streaks lenght to stop for obvious fkng reasons.

Providing the valuable triggers to look for, such 'streaks' plans cannot be wrong by any means, mainly as it works wonderfully even at pc simulated shoes (yes, yes, yes!).
Sure, a substantial amount of patience is needed but I do not recall any long term winning player lacking this important element to succeed at games.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 03, 2022, 12:51:58 AM
Ok, now it's time to move on other games. Baccarat lacks of suspence.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on August 03, 2022, 01:35:25 PM
Thx ABG. A lot of good points(as always).
ABG:
in part,

"...This is a very simplified list to look for:

1) Consider baccarat ranges just in terms of 1s, 2s and 3s. An exception is displayed later.

2) When in doubt or unless your strategy dictates to bet B to form or limit some patterns, do not bet a dime at Banker side as you'll be 11.62:1 underdog to cross through an asymmetrical hand favoring B).
It's true that it's more likely to encounter long B streaks than long P streaks but itlr such attempts are worthless.

3) Besides side bets, the only edge we can rely upon to beat baccarat is exploting the 'clustering effect'.
Math 'experts' will teach us that this effect will be proportionally distributed with opposite (losing) situations but they are deadly wrong.

4) The clustering effect must be exploited either by a simple 1-level back-to-back property or by concidentally betting an already moderate or long 'same events' sequence. Of course at both scenarios the main aim to look for is just one win (what baccarat pros do).

5) Many sections of the shoe are unplayable and this doesn't necessarily mean that after a given series of unplayable sections a kind of favourable opportunites will arise.
Do not rule out the possibility that cards are so whimsically arranged to get few clustered profitable events and the idea to bet on such 'unwanted' scenarios is out of order.

6) Always take into account the doubles or 3s pace of apparition considered at various portions of the shoe and in relationship of their average final value.
Of course singles make a huge impact of such doubles or 3s gaps.

7) A corollary of the #1 point, it's a kind of another invincible plan:
Set up two different random walks (SRW) applied at streaks clusters of precise lenght.
SRW #1 bets toward doubles and triples (exact triples) clustered at a given level, so any 3+ streak is a sort of boundary.
SRW #2 bets toward exact triples and 4 streaks clustered at a given level getting as 'boundary' any 4+ streak.
..."

Re: #2 above and specifically this part. Can you give an example or clarify/thx in advance.

"2) When in doubt or unless your strategy dictates to bet B to form or limit some patterns, do not bet a dime at Banker side as you'll be 11.62:1 underdog to cross through an asymmetrical hand favoring B).

Continued Success,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: klw on August 03, 2022, 07:57:03 PM
Hi AsymBacGuy -- Great writings as usual. Is it possible to give/show an example of what you mean in point no.7 and how you would bet this ?

" 7) A corollary of the #1 point, it's a kind of another invincible plan:
Set up two different random walks (SRW) applied at streaks clusters of precise lenght.
SRW #1 bets toward doubles and triples (exact triples) clustered at a given level, so any 3+ streak is a sort of boundary.
SRW #2 bets toward exact triples and 4 streaks clustered at a given level getting as 'boundary' any 4+ streak. "

Cheers.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 07, 2022, 10:37:32 PM
Hi KFB and klw!
Thanks again, I truly appreciate your interest!

@KFB

I've made a mistake, odds are 10.62:1 and not 11.62:1. Sorry.

"2) When in doubt or unless your strategy dictates to bet B to form or limit some patterns, do not bet a dime at Banker side as you'll be 10.62:1 underdog to cross through an asymmetrical hand favoring B).

Once I've heard a high end casino floorman whispering "as long as most bac players like to bet Banker, we'll eventually make more money than if they would prefer to bet Player".
Is this a mathematical heresy or it was just an ignorant and/or misleading thought?

Actually he was completely right and we'll see why.

1- At commission games, yes, the ROI difference between always wagering Banker vs always wagering Player is 0.18%, so itlr B is less worse than P. Not a awesome percentage to look for by any means. It would be at other constant betting games as black jack, for example, where every tiny percentage favoring players adds up.

2- Some no commission games make Player side the best bet to make: think about tables (Lucky 6) where any winning Banker hand by a 6 point is payed 1:2. At those tables, the HE is 1.46% at B side and remains 1.24% at P side.
The difference is 0.22%, now less worse at P side.   

3- Besides the "Lucky 6" tables, other no commission games make B side less disadvantaged than common commission games, think about EZ baccarat tables (HE at B bets= 1.01%) or rare tables (Holland and Spain) where B winning hands by a 5 point are payed 1:2 (HE at B bets= 0.93%).

4- Overall no commission tables where B bets are less burdened than common commission tables do entice the side bets wagering, that is those side bets 'covering' the situations where B will be payed 1:2 (F-7, for example). And we know how huge is the HE on those side bets.

But the decisive factor why, generally speaking, B bettors are more likely to lose more money than P bettors (or to win less) is because B aficionados think that the Banker advantage will be steadily distributed along each hand dealt whereas such advantage is just concentrated on very few hands. 

In fact, per every hand wagered math probability to get an asymmetrical hand favoring Banker is 8.6/91.4, a 10.62:1 ratio.
To put things on another perspective, on average it's just that whenever we'll bet Banker we'll be economically 'wrong' more than 10 times (as we'll be payed 0.95 to 1) and astoundingly right just less than one time (now getting an average potential 57.93% winning probability to rely upon).   

Think that at baccarat a huge percentage of winning hands are made of naturals and standing 7s and 6s, and those are pure symmetrical probabilities that must come out here and there, but the payment is strongly different being 1:1 at P side and 0.95:1 at B side.
It's true that at some no commission games such symmetrical possibilities are payed 1:1 no matter the side wagered, yet many strategies cannot allow to get a Banker key spot to win other than by at least a 0.95% ROI. Meaning that in the vast majority of the times we shouldn't put ourselves in the position to 'ensure' our main B bet by wagering a side bet.
This is a strong long term EV- move.

Of course there are times to bet those side bets, but we ought to do that independently of our main bet, otherwise we'll lose money itlr.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 08, 2022, 12:15:55 AM
@klw: you got a personal PM about your question  :thumbsup:

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 09, 2022, 07:49:59 PM
That's what could happen when you roam with a kayak in the wonderful Silver Springs Park (FL) waters...



Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 10, 2022, 01:53:46 AM
Patience is the key factor to win at games

Even though we know to play with a verified EV+, long losing streaks could come out and we can't do anything other than accept them and move forward.
Think about those formidable black jack counters playing with a math edge yet possibly falling into the negative territory even for months.
The same about best poker players, where months could easily become one year or more.

Fortunately baccarat isn't a 'forced one-sided' game, meaning that we can take the side we wish anytime we wish even though we can't confide on a strict math edge.
Anyway at baccarat the main potential advantage to look for is to stay away when things seem to go toward the wrong way, so trying to get the best of it by distorting our plan consitutes a huge mistake.

Suppose to flip a biased coin where we know heads come out 51% of the times and tails the remaining 49% and no vig is applied.
Itlr we'll get a 2% pure edge, right?

Right of course, but the fkng variance could get us losers for a quite long time and no progressive plan could get the best of it  unless carefully determined by a very diluted multilayered betting scheme.

In this thread I've illiustrated 'general' strategies that can get you a statistical edge up to 6% or more, nonetheless the fkng losing 47% counterpart may easiily showing up for long or by clustered forms.

I recall my poker tournaments history where at key all-in spots my AK lost vs AQ just 8 times out of 9, despite being nearly 73/37 favorite to win every hand.
Surely it happens, so let's figure out about what lower favourable probabilities could do.   

Notice the 73% winning probability being so close to the 75% probability I've stressed about on my pages.

The difference is that at baccarat we could exploit and manage '0.25% losing situations'  way better than at poker and reasons are widely described on my pages.

So at baccarat the 'patience' factor should be confined just to one or two shoes played, differently than poker where every hand is completely independent from the previous one.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 10, 2022, 03:57:18 AM
Take the #7 point depicted above applied to a 180 shoes sample derived from REAL live tables.
That is we'll put in action a RW considering streaks of consecutive values after an apparition trigger had come out.
As always when taking into account a 0.75% probability and simplifynig things, W +1 and L= -3.
Instead of looking at final W/L ratios, let's focus about WL dispersion values.

LWLW
LWW
LWW
WL
LLW
WWL
WW
LW
WWWW
WW
LW
LWW
LWW
WWW
WW
WW
WW
WLWW
LLW
WWW
LWLL
W
W
WW
W
LWWW
LWW
WWW
LWW
WWW
WL
WW
LLLW
LWL
LW
LWWW
WW
LW
LWW
WW
LWW
WW
WWL
WLWL
WL
WWW
LW
WW
WW
WW
WW
WL
WW
WWLLW
LWW
WW
LLLW
WWW
WWW
WW
WWW
WWW
WWW
WWWL
WLWL
WWL
W
WWW
WW
WWW
WLW
WWWW
WLW
WL
LLLW
WW
WW
LWLW
LLL
WW
WW
WW
WW
WWLW
WL
WLW
WW
WW
LWL
WLW
WL
W
WW
WW
WWW
WW
WWW
WW
WWW
L
WWW
WW
WW
LWW
WLWW
LWW
LL
LWLW
WLW
WLW
LWW
WLW
WW
LWW
WW
WW
WWW
W
WLW
WLW
WW
WW
WLW
WWW
WW
WW
WLLL
W
LLW
LW
WLW
LWW
LLL
WWWW
LWW
WLW
WLW
LWWW
WWW
WW
WW
WW
L
LW
WWWWW
LWW
WWW
WWL
WW
WWW
WW
LW
LWWL
WW
LWWW
WLW
LWWW
WLW
LW
LWLW
WW
WW
WW
WWL
W
WLLL
WWW
WWW
W
WLW
WWW

We see that per any shoe dealt, such streaks categories are not going to provide many WL ratios greater than a 4 hand pace succession.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 14, 2022, 10:41:22 PM
Even if I like Walt Whitman US writer, I don't want to be contradictory about what I've written so far: that is simple W or L situations happening when a strict mechanical strategy works out cannot provide a valuable edge.
Yet let's see what are the results of a 'bet W after a single L' plan did on the previous samples: 

It's a +23 unit (before vig) result.

Summary.

W= +1, L= -3, triggers are any L not following another L and of course we'll bet one time toward a W.

I'm not stating this is an 'optimal' strategy to look for, I'm just saying that this is one of the wonderful opportunities to get the best of it at baccarat. Of course getting the least impact of variance.
Why should that be true?

Again the answer relies upon the average card distribution happening at every shoe dealt. making 'unrandom' certain pattern successions showing up at some points of interest, that is such spots are fully beatable.
Add this to the fact that the vast majority of shoes dealt are affected by an intrinsic defect of randomness: yesterday, now and in the future.

oOoOo

Playing baccarat is just as wagering into a 'biased' coin flip finite succession, where there two kind of 'biases':

- a general steady math bias (general asymmetrical probability favoring B);

- a more important actual 'bias' coming out from the actual card (unrandom) distribution, privileging some patterns than others.

Needless to say that such features cannot mock an independent 'coin flipping' game unless dictated by coincidence.
Thus, we know without any shadow of doubt that the coin will be heavier or lighter in some points of the shoe, naturally knowing that at the most situations our coin will be 'equally' balanced considering all opposite forces, meaning it will be unbeatable.

So forget to try to guess every hand dealt as most hands fall into the 'pure coin flip' unbeatable category. 
Whenever you'd think a given line (and there are innumerable r.w.'s to look for) seems to reach a valuable deviated ratio (especially after many no valuable patterns had shown up), bet this line by a 0.75% probability in order to prolong it just by one step.
But the better feature to look for is the 'complexity' of such patterns, so the more complex a searched pattern is, better are the probabilities to catch a winning hand along the way.
It's now that the 'clustered' factor will take its primary role over the possible outcomes.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 15, 2022, 12:11:24 AM
More samples to look for:

WWW
WW
LWW
WWW
WWWW
W
LLLW
WWWL
WW
LLW
WWW
WW
LW
LWLWW
WW
WW
LW
WLW
LWW
WW
WWW
WW
WWW
LWW
WW
WWW
LWW
LWLWW
W
WWW
WL
WWLW
WWW
LWW
WLW
WLLL
WLW
WW
WL
WW
WWLW
WLWW
WW
WW
LLW
WWW
WL
WW
WLW
WL
W
WWW
WWW
LWL
WWW
LWW
WWW
WWW
LW
WW
WWW
WW
W
WW
LWL
LWW
WLW
WW
WW
LLLL
WWLW
W
LWL
WW
WWW
WWWWW
LWL
LLW
LL
LWW
LW
WW
WW
WWWW
WWLW
WL
W
WW
WW
WLW
WWW
WWW
W
LW
WW
WW
LW
LW
LLW
LWW
WW
WW
WWWW
WW
W
WW
WW
WWW
WLW
WL
WWW
W
WWWL
LLLWW
LWW
WWW
WW
no PATTERNS
LWWW
WWW
WW
WW
WLW
WWW
LW
W
WWW
WL
WWW
LLW
LWLW
WW
W
WL
WW
LWWL
WW
WW
LLW
WW
LWW
WL
WLW
WWLW
LLLL
WW
WWW
WL
WW
W
WW
WW
WW
LW
WWW
WWW
WW
WW
WW
WLW

At the end the same 'after a single L bet toward W' strategy will get a +11 unit result before vig.

For that matter a W-W clustering scheme applied at this last sample will get a +15 unit final result (before vig) that at the previous shoes sample won't provide any positive amount.
That's why is so important to patiently waiting for things more likely stopping after a given 'unlikely' pattern had shown up than hoping that a given pattern will prolong forever and ever.
Of course many intermediate situations may endorse a 'stop the betting up to a loss' strategy, anyway it's not the main tool real bac pros will look at.
And numbers displayed are the answer. 


as.

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on August 23, 2022, 04:53:43 AM
Hi ABG

ABG: "...Meaning that in the vast majority of the times we shouldn't put ourselves in the position to 'ensure' our main B bet by wagering a side bet.
This is a strong long term EV- move.   ..."

     I agree for the most part.

     What are your thoughts re: The same scenario with P/Panda8 (or P with F7)??

Thx in advance
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 24, 2022, 12:11:39 AM
Hi KFB!

I think (you too, of course) that the best bac players are 'situational' players, meaning they like to bet toward some value of clustered events that happened so far than hoping that an event 'must' happen sooner or later.

So for example, if my strategy tells me to bet P I could place an additional Panda side bet, providing it came out by a higher frequency than probability dictates, that is following the 'rare events come out in clusters or stay silent for long' tool.

The 'betting P and F-7' is a more intriguing matter (the same about betting P side and placing a 'Lucky 6' wager).

Personally I very rarely play at EZ bac tables, so I can't tell you about the first attack, yet it could happen that I'll bet P side simultaneously wagering a 'lucky 6'.

The reason is because 'Lucky 6' is a well more likely possibility than F-7, at the same time knowing that Lucky 6 tables provide a better negative edge at Player bets (1.24% vs 1.46%).

In some way, my P bet must shift many Banker winning points but a 6. And those are surely coming out at least once in the vast majority of shoes dealt (differently to F-7). 

Many casinos have changed some bac tables from a pure 5% B commission game to "Lucky 6" tables as their math advantage will raise from 1.06%/1.24% to 1.46%/1.24%, forgetting that Lucky 6s are more constant to be distributed than F-7, for example (now the HE at B bets is around 1.01%).

The main error (obviously dictated by math experts losers and math probabilities) is that three cards are needed to form a F-7, whereas in the vast majority of the times a Lucky 6 needs just two. The same about Panda bet.

I think that any bac player should bet toward more likely situations, thus two-card happening will be more likely than three-card happening.
The same about simple B and P bets: we do not want to bet a side needing a third card to improve its point.

as.   
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 24, 2022, 12:56:32 AM
More clustered streaks of consecutive lenght:

WW
WWW
WW
WWW
WWW
LWW
WW
WWW
WWLL
WW
WW
WWW
WW
WWLW
WLWL
WWW
W
LLLLW
WWW
WW
WW
WWW
WLWL
LLWWW
LWW
WL
WLW
LWW
W
WL
WWWW
WW
WW
WWW
WWW
LW
LWW
LLLW
WWL
WLW
WWW
LWW
WW
WWW
LWLW
LWW
WLWW
W
WWLW
WLWW
WLLW
LWW
WWL
WWW
WWW
LW
W
LLW
WW
WLW
WW
WW
LWWW
LWW
WW
WLL
WW
W
W
LWWW
WW
WW
WW
WW
WW
WW
WW
WW
LLL

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on August 24, 2022, 04:52:34 AM
Hi All,

Thanks ABG for your reply to my Q .

ABG resplied:

Personally I very rarely play at EZ bac tables, so I can't tell you about the first attack, yet it could happen that I'll bet P side simultaneously wagering a 'lucky 6'.

The reason is because 'Lucky 6' is a well more likely possibility than F-7, at the same time knowing that Lucky 6 tables provide a better negative edge at Player bets (1.24% vs 1.46%).


I agree on your assessment for Lucky6 and can see the merits for wagering P/Lucky6. I seldom see a table with Lucky6 (or maybe I simply don't notice), and seldom if ever wager it. So good to know your thoughts above should I encounter that situation.

Re: B /F7--I agree that it is not mathematically sound and ITLR an increased HE to an already -EV wager. My main reason for not habitually wagering the Bwager coupled with the F7 is the hedging effect on the B bet(I can't win both but can lose both). However, a situation where I do sometimes is when I have pressed my B wager to a higher level and I don't want to lose-a-win, or push on a win. I will then wager the F7 for an amount equal to "my" chips in the wager or maybe so an F7 win =66% of that pressed up wager,...etc..

Of course, there could be times we perceive or calculate that F7 has a higher probability of showing/ that could skew all of the above probabilities in the players favor(or at least make less disadvantaged), as long as one doesn't wager it too often.


Continued Success,






Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 24, 2022, 09:11:27 PM
Hi KFB!

Re: B /F7--I agree that it is not mathematically sound and ITLR an increased HE to an already -EV wager. My main reason for not habitually wagering the Bwager coupled with the F7 is the hedging effect on the B bet(I can't win both but can lose both). However, a situation where I do sometimes is when I have pressed my B wager to a higher level and I don't want to lose-a-win, or push on a win. I will then wager the F7 for an amount equal to "my" chips in the wager or maybe so an F7 win =66% of that pressed up wager,...etc..

Of course, there could be times we perceive or calculate that F7 has a higher probability of showing/ that could skew all of the above probabilities in the players favor(or at least make less disadvantaged), as long as one doesn't wager it too often.


I totally agree about those passages of yours.

Many times I'm astonished to watch at a player betting ALL the possible side bets at every hand dealt. (The like of six or more side bets I mean)

Yes, some shoes are particularly full of F-7 and Panda, nothing wrong about betting both even if they are mutually exclusive.

I admit to be cognitively disturbed while wagering P and at the same time betting the Lucky 6.
After all, any P bet needs a 6, 7, 8 or 9 two-card point to look for, all scenarios denying a Lucky 6 winning. 
But when 6s are particularly live in the deck, the logic department might start to come back.

Generally speaking and following Al's thought, some side bets should be bet when winning and not in order to recover losses.

BTW, which kind of tables (classic, EZ, etc) do you prefer to bet at?

Thanks in advance

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 31, 2022, 12:12:23 AM
A warm thanks to everyone who had the patience to read my section, for some reasons I'm stopping to post anymore about baccarat (maybe as we were banned to play at a couple of premises).

Almost 140k views consitute a huge accomplishment I'm very proud of it.

For sure you can bet your a$$ that baccarat is a beatable game, no matter what math dictates.

Hope to see you at real tables very soon!

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on August 31, 2022, 03:02:28 AM
Hi ABG:
"... BTW, which kind of tables (classic, EZ, etc) do you prefer to bet at?..."
    If I had to choose I would say probably prefer EZ vs others. Mainly due to that's what my cas market seems to offer(6 deck mostly).

ABG:"... A warm thanks to everyone who had the patience to read my section, for some reasons I'm stopping to post anymore about baccarat (maybe as we were banned to play at a couple of premises)..."

    Thanks for all your research and work along with the many posts on the forum. Hopefully your sabbatical will be short.

Continued Success,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: 8OR9 on September 01, 2022, 12:03:14 AM
If possible, can you explain why you were banned.........because of baccarat or other situations?
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on September 01, 2022, 12:19:46 AM
ASYM,

Two thought only.

1). The real deal.

2). Would love to play at same table as we tried earlier in the year but unsuccessful.

Thanks,
Admin/Board Owner
Alrelax
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 01, 2022, 01:55:51 AM
Actually I have several topics to write about I can't quit.  :D

@KFB and Alrelax: thanks for your kind words. Of course I'm looking forward to play with you somewhere! 

@8OR9: the story is simple. An unknown friend of a peer playing baccarat with me (we stupidly picked up him as the 'driver' for the night) tossed violently a losing natural 8 right in the face of an obnoxiuos dealer, cursing and shouting words like "I'll wait for you outside".
Floorman decided we all three were culprit for his behaviour, telling us that we won't be welcome to play there anymore.
I was so disgusted I started to hate baccarat, casinos and everything.
This casino is linked with another casino, so all of a sudden we were barred at both.

A real bad beat.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on September 01, 2022, 02:12:46 AM
I totally understand, but I learned many years ago, never ever cuss out or talk stuff about a dealer, direct it to the shoe itself.  Everyplace I know, we can cuss at and talk or yell trash to the shoe.  If the dealer does say anything, we make it clear to the floor personnel, we are talking to the shoe.

But I understand.  Thanks, Alrelax
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 01, 2022, 03:31:42 AM
Overthinking

If there's a game where 'overthinking' is harmful, this is baccarat.

So if we're in doubt to bet this or that, we should simply do not bet at all.

After all baccarat is a game of clusters, educated guesses based upon long term tests or actual situations or, best, all of the three.

Here a brief list of general assumptions, imo, that won't help us in any way:

1- Banker is more advantaged to show up, so when in doubt bet Banker.

Cottontail rabbitsh.it.

If we'd decide to bet B is because for some reasons B should be more probable than P, we're not betting B as it's less disadvantaged than P.
This stuff belongs to math minds that in the 99,999% of the times are sure losers at this game.

2- We bet B and after a natural 9 showed up at P (sigh), a same natural 9 happened at B. So if we have miraculously shifted an almost sure loss, "it means that B must show up at the next hand".

Desert tortoisesh.it.

Actually there's a very very slight propensity that a natural will be followed by another natural at the same side, so betting B is a strong wrong move to make as when naturals come out (no matter at which side) asymmetrical hands favoring B cannot happen.

3) Last card dealt at the previous hand was an 8 or a 9, so P side is less likely to be kissed by a natural.

Roadrunnersh.it

If this assumption may be true we should infer that B will be more probable than P as a part of winning points involving naturals must fall at position #2 or #4 as opposed as position #1 or #3.
Meaning that after an 8 or a 9, a 1-step (consecutive) or 3-step (gap of 2) between 8s/9s is less probable to happen than a 2-step (gap of 1) of 4-step (gap of 3). No way.

4) In some way Banker or Player must 'catch up' after an opposite predominance happened.

This is a more debatable point as very good players try to get this effect to show up in selected circumstances differently to poor players that like to bet a side no matter how patterns develop.

5) Sooner or later a streak of fair lenght must happen along most part of shoes.

False assumption.
I've registered up to 5 consecutive shoes produced by the same source not forming a streak superior than 3 at either side.
A kind of heaven instead.

6) The more a side bet is silent higher is the probability to get it along the way.

Without a proper card counting, side bets are not more likely to come out after a period of 'silence'.
Actually it's true the opposite.
Most of the times, we awake about side bets when they come out clustered, before that we simply ignore their possibility to happen.

7) 'I'm doing so bad that I'm starting to play the opposite of what my strategy dictates' or 'I'm doing so good that I'm starting to play the opposite of what my strategy dictates'. 

In most of the cases, it's a fatal error.
We can't know how long a bad or good sequence will come out and the simple countermeasure to adopt is to keep betting when good things happen and not betting when bad things happen.
Stopping to bet after a good sequence happened is very easy, the opposite scenario is way more difficult to manage.
When to restart the betting? A topic we'll see in a next post.


as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: klw on September 01, 2022, 03:46:01 AM
Hi AS. I really hope you do not disappear from the forum. As a beginner at Baccarat ( compared to most on here ) I find your posts to be the sign posts to a winning formula at beating this game.

I hope you lose your hatred very soon and continue your informative posts.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on September 01, 2022, 02:00:54 PM
Hi klw--perfect post above and I concur.

Hi ABG. I agree with your 1-7 thoughts above. I will respond later (or in next couple days)as I had a couple Q/thoughts. Im prepping to get on road for a 3-day gaming trip so may not send Qs til Sunday.

Hope everyone has a nice weekend.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on September 01, 2022, 02:21:21 PM
As you said:  " 6) The more a side bet is silent higher is the probability to get it along the way.

Without a proper card counting, side bets are not more likely to come out after a period of 'silence'.
Actually it's true the opposite.
Most of the times, we awake about side bets when they come out clustered, before that we simply ignore their possibility to happen.

7) 'I'm doing so bad that I'm starting to play the opposite of what my strategy dictates' or 'I'm doing so good that I'm starting to play the opposite of what my strategy dictates'. 

In most of the cases, it's a fatal error.
We can't know how long a bad or good sequence will come out and the simple countermeasure to adopt is to keep betting when good things happen and not betting when bad things happen.
Stopping to bet after a good sequence happened is very easy, the opposite scenario is way more difficult to manage."

Numbers 6 and 7 to the MAX!

Last night PERFECT EXAMPLES!

I posted notes and shoe pictures.  Side bets galore!!

Profit city :)

Look at my post #7 in the following thread:

https://betselection.cc/index.php?topic=11423.0
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: 8OR9 on September 01, 2022, 11:52:41 PM
Asym......Sorry you got banned......most casinos will not fool around with you if you get really physically or verbally abusive.....unlessyou are a real big whale who bets and losses  $ millions.

Someone I know had too much to drink and was getting obnoxious and getting too familiar with a girl who was working at a small convenience store in the casino ( she wasn't even a 
dealer ) and she had enough so she called security and he was permanently banned.

It's best not to lose your temper or drink alcohol when in a casino....... people do crazy things when they are drunk.




Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 04, 2022, 09:31:24 PM
Thanks klw and KFB! I have the same feeling, many times you've inspired me in certain things!

Yep Al, I knew you would have liked those points  :D
And of course I've benn always reading the real shoes you provide here.

@8OR9: fortunately my ban was erased the day after this mess but I was informed just yesterday.

Yeah, gambling is not for everyone, arrogant or abusive people, sober or stoned, should find another hobby.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on September 04, 2022, 11:01:15 PM
First of all, Asym—- you and I go way back and you are one of the best (even though I know a tad bit more than you  :))  << Me, :nod: << You).

Second of all, your paragraph, "Yeah, gambling is not for everyone, arrogant or abusive people, sober or stoned, should find another hobby.", is spot on.  I have written about a well varied mix of people at the tables and it does influence the majority of all players in one way or another, good and bad, positively and negatively!

Your not going anywhere, just like myself, we are here for a very long time to come. 

Your Comrade and Peer,
Alrelax



Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 05, 2022, 01:29:01 AM
Al, you can be sure I won't go anywhere, I'll stick with this wonderful site.

Again, by far this is the only forum where people could grasp ideas to beat baccarat in a way or another.

Let naysayers think that experience and subtle features of the game cannot help us to find a way to beat baccarat (most math experts do not know a fkng nothing about some Smoluchowski works, let alone about what randomness really is).

Your peer and comrade asymbacguy.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 05, 2022, 02:44:08 AM
Numbers and human guesses

Casinos make a lot of money by letting players to guess hands using this simple strategic plan:

1) a given pattern will prolong (P);

2) a given pattern will stop (S).

Of course there are innumerable patterns to look for, think about big road and derived roads where a kind of homogeneous pattern (especially when considering a 0.75 or higher probability) will surely show up along the shoe's lenght.

Anyway we have strong reasons to think that itlr P=S even though some P patterns are more likely to come out for the asymmetrical nature of the game privileging Banker.
But this feature on average will impact the results by just one more B hand per shoe.

Anyway, the key factor to look for is that P or S patterns are the direct corollary of the actual card distribution.

For that matter, the vast majority of shoes dealt are not producing a B/P ratio shifted toward B by just one step, it's just a kind of abnormality.
So we may infer that more complicated patterns will make even more unlikely to get a final +1 W/L ratio on such patterns, mainly as we do not know precisely which side will be really favored to show up or not.

Thus different patterns move around four different probabilities considered at the simplest 2-pattern step: P+P, P+S, S+S and S+P.

In some way 'humans', that is the vast majority of bac players, like to progressively stop a P pattern or to constantly wager toward P+P or S+P patterns.

It's like that they concede to the house a 'natural' S+S pattern, getting a 25% probability to happen.

Moreover any P+P step will get some values to look for, meaning that certain cutoff points are more likely to happen itlr and the same is about S+P patterns.

This is a very important concept, as it's the main tool to put math in relationship of the actual card distribution.

Most bac players hope that P+P > P+S or, even worse, that S+P > S+S or that P+S should be less probable than P+P.
Or, worst of worst, that S+S must magically shift into S+P very soon.

Of course P+P, P+S, S+P and S+S are perfectly balanced in their apparition itlr, but in no way perfectly distributed along any shoe dealt.

More on that in a couple of days.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on September 05, 2022, 04:31:16 AM
Hi ABG.
"...After all baccarat is a game of clusters, educated guesses based upon long term tests or actual situations or, best, all of the three.   ..."

     I like the wording in the above statement.
Do you have favorite clusters you like to watch for in anticipatory mode and then bet for continuance(or against)?

Thx in advance,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 05, 2022, 07:12:52 AM
Hi KFB!

Yes, consecutive probability patterns is one of the options to look for.

Examples are singles and doubles vs triples or doubles and triples vs 3+s and so on.
It may happen the clustering effect will be denied by singled appearances (of course we'll wait our trigger to show up before betting or fictionally betting). But sooner or later (very soon) probability makes things to follow more likely scenarios.

Naturally each shoe is a world apart, best shoes to attack are those converging a general probability to happen along with an 'actual' probability to happen.
It's impossible to get a 'clustered' event unless that event shows up very soon in the shoe, so hoping it will form 'multiple' opportunities to become clustered.

Maybe clusters of streaks of 3s and 4s considered at derived roads seem to get the lowest variance.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 06, 2022, 10:04:25 PM
The more we play the more we'll win

This statement strongly collides with what most baccarat players have read about this game.

So worst counter statement sounds as 'quit when you are ahead', the perfect quote instructing us we just need a positive variance to end up as (temporary) winners.

Those geniuses do not tell you what to do when losing, probably they'll teach you to try to recover your losses up to a point (actual bankroll), then, well, tomorrow will be another day.

Consider that a shoe is a finite card distribution having its peaks of 'homogeneous' patterns and 'heterogeneous' patterns.
Most players hope to get long homogeneous situations (HO) because they can't find a way to beat heterogeneous sequences (HE).

On the other end, some players often adopting a progressive plan, like to get HE patterns as things must change in a way or another.

Obviously both categories are destined to lose as HO = HE with their variance values.

Think of a shoe forming long sequences of HE or HO, differently taken they constitute a harsh obstacle to deal with.

For that matter, no HE or HO betting line is superior than the other, it's just how many clustered sequences will show up, up to some cutoff points we've decided to classify them.
Actually and besides some situations, there are no specific cutoff points to look for otherwise the game wouldn't exist. 

Of course at baccarat we have to deal with 'space', meaning that after a long or predominant HE or HO successions, the balancement power may be lowered by several factors acting along that shoe.

It's a proven fact that changing the side of operations (either at HE or HO way) will get the best probability of success.
Of course intrdoucing the concept that many times our best move is to not bet at all.

More later

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 07, 2022, 01:46:03 AM
Baccarat is an infinite sequence of dependent and asymmetrical propositions (key cards, asym card distribution and intrinsic asym B/P probability) where just one factor is constant, that is the last one, nonetheless being affected by the first two factors.

So no one single hand is purely belonging to a coin flip proposition, let alone about a 'model' moving around a long term 50.68/49.32 expected probability.

Baccarat hands move around strong shifted math propositions, so everytime we'll bet a side we should know we'll be hugely right or hugely wrong, regardless of how 'whimsically' the final results are formed.

Say A is the probability to win at HO patterns and B the probability to win at HE patterns.

Of course itlr (so after having registered a fair amount of samples), A=B, but every shoe is a world apart for the dependent and asymmetrical card distribution features.

In fact, every shoe dealt will feature a A>B and B>A probability getting different values not belonging to a coin flip (unbeatable) model and neither to a 0.5068/0.4932 (unbeatable) probability.

Things go toward HO or HE sides in the same way as a edge sorting technique will get a math edge over the house.

The difference is that a 'statistical' edge sorting technique must take into account the important 'conditional probability' happening along any shoe dealt and naturally completely disjointed from a precise card rank.

Example.

There are several ways to lose hoping that a HO or HE sequence will stop, yet there are several ways to get this succession to last for at least one more hand.
The difference is that in the former scenario we'll progressively bet to get a miserable one winning hand, whereas in the latter case we need just one winning hand to get a kind of freeroll over the house.

But notice: I was referring about HO or HE successions and not just HO situations the vast majority of players will look for.

It could happen that HO and HE will be distributed by a kind of 'hopping' scheme, but again prolonging the 'hopping attitude' will put ourselves in the position to freerolling after the first hand won.

In reality, a WL hopping situation is the least likely to happen at baccarat and the proof is to adopt  a D'Alambert progression that will make us losers very soon.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on September 07, 2022, 05:29:31 PM
Hi all,
Hi AsymBacGuy/thx for essays above. In post #679 u say the following:

"... So no one single hand is purely belonging to a coin flip proposition, let alone about a 'model' moving around a long term 50.68/49.32 expected probability.

Baccarat hands move around strong shifted math propositions, so everytime we'll bet a side we should know we'll be hugely right or hugely wrong, regardless of how 'whimsically' the final results are formed. ..."

So no one single hand is purely belonging to a coin flip proposition,
    I agree 100%

let alone about a 'model' moving around a long term 50.68/49.32 expected probability.

    My opinion differs a little on this part as I perceive the decisions that have a P OR B winner and loser declared (Not a Tie) do indeed converge toward a ratio very close(though not exact to this), ITLR. That is, after only a few hundred decisions we can see a convergence. Though I will also state this convergence can change directions and flow outward again prior to converging again back toward expectation, so some of our views can depend on when we looked at the data(i.e. After 1000, 15000, 1000000 , et al decisions,..etc).

I see where alot of posters, data crunchers,  et al make generalized statements like:

Lets just ignore ties because we arent betting them anyway,....etc.

I like to view Ties as events too(and they are), as they have their own probability, and since we all agree each shoe will have a finite number of decisions, the overall Variance of P and B are indeed affected by the number of Ties(low or high Ties). So this contributes to my next thought. I've wondered if this tendency by some to ignore Ties when looking at large collections of data (or the Non consistent language we use when discussing the overall 50-50 ratio of P/B where some may assume the reader isn't considering Ties), is why many perceive the sole PorB decisions as always being near 50/50 ratio, thus we see a perception of many that think:
It doesn't matter how one bets as its just a "coin flip" or "fiftyfifty" anyway.
Yes, no?? What say you.

Baccarat hands move around strong shifted math propositions, so everytime we'll bet a side we should know we'll be hugely right or hugely wrong,
    ABG , when you say hugely right or wrong do you mean say 44%,53% or 57%(which is indeed huge), or do you mean something much larger(or smaller)??


Thanks in advance to all replies,



Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: klw on September 07, 2022, 07:28:10 PM
Hi AS -- How would you group your HO and HE patterns or am I overthinking this ?
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 12, 2022, 02:21:47 AM
Hi KFB!

Yes, ITLR B and P will approach more and more to the 0.5068 and 0.4932 expected probability, nevertheless such feature belongs to a perfect random model that is not going to happen at most shoes dealt.
Besides natural variance happening at real random models (so getting precise sd values), we ought to understand that bac shoes are not performing random requisites by any means.
Of course and since the 'unrandom' strenght cannot be precisely assessed shoe per shoe by simple B and P measures, it's obvious that itlr the unrandom world + unrandom unrandom = random world.

Alrelax is absolutely right on that, getting the least s.h.it on long term results:

Say A is the statistical or math propensity to overcome the B opposite situation.
If the production is really random, A>B by a 1.36% gap forever and ever (considering the math B advantage).

Actually A>B only whether bac productions are really random. Since we can discard such probability, our new situation to face will be: A=B*k, where k almost always is a number different than 1, so per every shoe dealt either A is more likely to happen (k<1) than B or less likely to show up (k>1).

Practically speaking, our watchdog cannot be the sd parameter but the actual card distribution privileging some patterns than others, especially when we are able to split the entire shoe into distinct sections.

Thus there's a potential A>B plan to look for and a more important actual A>B*k situation to take advantage from.
Obviously 'k' cannot be perfect balanced along the way as shoes are not randomly produced.

Ties.

You are 1 million % correct, imo.
For the most part, bac results are formed by 4 or 5 card propositions and ties are mathematically way more likely to show up when 6 cards are employed to form hands.
It's in those 6-card instances that the 'gambling' factor will take its highest role as most of the times one side won't be so 'hugely' favored to win (for math and for bac rules) than the counterpart.

To beat this game we must 'catch up' the actual more likely card ditribution and ties tend to 'stop' patterns happening so far (number of cards employed to form hands is the answer).
I agree that playing a 'ignoring ties' strategy is a big mistake to make.

A corollary is that shoes forming a lot of 6-card results (no matter how many ties are showing up) will get us harsher situations to look for.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 12, 2022, 02:43:22 AM
QuoteHi AS -- How would you group your HO and HE patterns or am I overthinking this ?

Hi klw!

Think that at most occurences, either playing toward HO or HE very soon will get a harsh stop getting more likely deviated values at each side. (I've stressed that the HO/HE or W/L situation is the less likely option to confide at).

Casinos hope we do like a unidirectional way of thinking the game, knowing that such stops will SURELY happen along the way.

Hence, for each shoe played, there are an average number of HO and HE patterns: think that HO pattern players are going to be crushed a bit more than HE pattern players, PROVIDING the latter category is capable to find out the situations where HO patterns are more likely to stop.

Most professional bac players would bet toward HE spots, knowing that the 'sky's the limit' attitude is just for losers.
On the other end, some acute players know to stop the betting after given cutoff points are reached by HE patterns. That is not chasing 'miracles' as they do not need them.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on September 13, 2022, 04:22:44 AM
Thanks Asymbacguy

I like your paragraph:
"...To beat this game we must 'catch up' the actual more likely card ditribution and ties tend to 'stop' patterns happening so far (number of cards employed to form hands is the answer).
I agree that playing a 'ignoring ties' strategy is a big mistake to make.

A corollary is that shoes forming a lot of 6-card results (no matter how many ties are showing up) will get us harsher situations to look for.
...."

as--Do you utilize any method to try and help guess how many cards(4,5,or 6) are more or less likely to show in next hand.

Thx,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on September 13, 2022, 11:20:06 AM
QuoteThanks Asymbacguy

I like your paragraph:
"...To beat this game we must 'catch up' the actual more likely card ditribution and ties tend to 'stop' patterns happening so far (number of cards employed to form hands is the answer).
I agree that playing a 'ignoring ties' strategy is a big mistake to make.

A corollary is that shoes forming a lot of 6-card results (no matter how many ties are showing up) will get us harsher situations to look for.
...."

as--Do you utilize any method to try and help guess how many cards(4,5,or 6) are more or less likely to show in next hand.

Thx,

My 2 cents ref ties is, not to ignore as well, but I cannot agree they stop patterns or trends.  I have to say a toss up and interpretation either way by individuals.  Just look at my thread with B&M shoes posted. 

I have had just as many help and encourage a side to continue as cut. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on September 13, 2022, 11:24:14 AM
Ref: " knowing that the 'sky's the limit' attitude is just for losers."

While it's happening, wagers like gangbusters and the cut down and try/wait for another red carpet.

Problem being, most all players wait too long to start wagering or parlaying and as well, keep going way way too long once it's done.

Those are the two largest downfalls, IMO.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on September 13, 2022, 12:03:43 PM
Hi all,

alrelax in reply #685:

"...My 2 cents ref ties is, not to ignore as well, but I cannot agree they stop patterns or trends.  I have to say a toss up and interpretation either way by individuals.  Just look at my thread with B&M shoes posted.

I have had just as many help and encourage a side to continue as cut. ..."


re: Ties. Personally, I view them as diluting the strength of what is presenting. Typically, and with no other better intel I treat them as place holders to whatever pattern is recently presenting. For example, if a T shows in the current string as: PBPBT (I would view the T as a continuance of what is happening "P slot" and would wager for B). I will also look at most recent 2-3 Ties just before this event and see if the pattern turned or continued and wager for whatever has been occurring.

Another T method I utilize (and have not confirmed if it is beneficial) is to look at how the two sides approached the Tie and wager on the increasing totals side. For example, let's say Bs recent hand totals were 8,7,6 and Ps recent hand totals were 4,5,6. Then I would wager for P after the T because it was "increasing" as it approached the T.

I would estimate that my success rate is probably near expectation.

Continued Success,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on September 13, 2022, 02:13:39 PM
QuoteHi all,

alrelax in reply #685:

"...My 2 cents ref ties is, not to ignore as well, but I cannot agree they stop patterns or trends.  I have to say a toss up and interpretation either way by individuals.  Just look at my thread with B&M shoes posted.

I have had just as many help and encourage a side to continue as cut. ..."


re: Ties. Personally, I view them as diluting the strength of what is presenting. Typically, and with no other better intel I treat them as place holders to whatever pattern is recently presenting. For example, if a T shows in the current string as: PBPBT (I would view the T as a continuance of what is happening "P slot" and would wager for B). I will also look at most recent 2-3 Ties just before this event and see if the pattern turned or continued and wager for whatever has been occurring.

Another T method I utilize (and have not confirmed if it is beneficial) is to look at how the two sides approached the Tie and wager on the increasing totals side. For example, let's say Bs recent hand totals were 8,7,6 and Ps recent hand totals were 4,5,6. Then I would wager for P after the T because it was "increasing" as it approached the T.

I would estimate that my success rate is probably near expectation.

Continued Success,

Thinking............Thinking back—I have to bring forward that often a tie designates a struggling side for whatever reason.  However, and a huge however, is that a Tie will allow one additional same side continuing win.  I find this more often true with the larger point value Ties, 7s-8s & 9s than others. 

I do agree with the previous same (same) shoe, what happened after the previous ties came out analogy, etc. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 13, 2022, 09:07:33 PM
as--Do you utilize any method to try and help guess how many cards(4,5,or 6) are more or less likely to show in next hand.


Hi KFB!

Think about probability clusters, it's quite unlikely to get a back to back 6-card hand, then it's even more unlikely to get a two cluster of 6-card hands. And so on.
Itlr 6-card hands are way more likely to come out as 'singled' patterns.

In addition, 6-card hands deny the Banker advantage unless the third card is a 6 or a 7 and B has a 6 two-card point.

Shoes rich of 6-card hands are more difficult to be detected as key cards distribution do not make their more likely job.

Of course it remains to assess which side will be more likely kissed by a math favored 2-card point.   

Take care!

as. 


Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 14, 2022, 01:21:02 AM
I'm strongly convinced that playing toward an 'average' card distribution (or not) will get the job, yet I'm way more convinced that shoes rich of ties are unplayable (at least according to my methods).

We've made the same adjustment KFB was talking about: looking at the side (or patterns) happening most after a tie.
Unfortunately this approach didn't get us any advantage over the house (no hurt either).

Probably many ties showing up work as a kind of multiple 'resetting' patterns, so we need some more hands to detect the most likely flow of the outcomes.
But if ties gaps are short, patterns are shorter and more 'whimsical'.

Baccarat is a game of numbers, ties are not numbers. So we can occasionally afford them up to a point.

as.
 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on September 16, 2022, 02:10:44 PM
HI ASB

U say:
"...
it's quite unlikely to get a back to back 6-card hand, then it's even more unlikely to get a two cluster of 6-card hands. And so on.
Itlr 6-card hands are way more likely to come out as 'singled' patterns.

and

In addition, 6-card hands deny the Banker advantage unless the third card is a 6 or a 7 and B has a 6 two-card point.

Shoes rich of 6-card hands are more difficult to be detected as key cards distribution do not make their more likely job..."
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
I agree with first part re unlikely scenario for bk2bk 6-card totals. So, if we follow that logic post-6card hand that now there is a greater probability for a 4-card or 5-card hand showing next (hopefully for B bettor it's the latter) ---

Q: Is there anything within that most recent 6-card hand that would suggest which of the two hand totals(4 or 5) is more likely as a f(x) of that 6-card hands' makeup. I believe 5-card hand is slightly more likely itlr (can't recall the exact % but believe its ~~31%.)

(Q1 is there an indicator suggesting a 4-card is more likely to show vs a 5-card hand next.)?
(Q2: Does your logic above also suggest that a 4-card hand is similarly less probable to show Bk-to-Bk? What about 5-card hand ??)

Thx in advance ASB or anyone else,

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 18, 2022, 08:28:01 PM
Hi KFB!

Q: Is there anything within that most recent 6-card hand that would suggest which of the two hand totals(4 or 5) is more likely as a f(x) of that 6-card hands' makeup. I believe 5-card hand is slightly more likely itlr (can't recall the exact % but believe its ~~31%.)


6-card hands probability is 31.6%.

5-card hands probability is 30.5%

4-card hands probability is the remaining 37.8%. (ok, the total is 99.9% but it wasn't me to make the calculations) :-)

(Q1 is there an indicator suggesting a 4-card is more likely to show vs a 5-card hand next.)?


Well, there's a 7.3% general math propensity toward 4-card hands than 5-card hands formation. Obviously the main factor orienting 4-card hands is the naturals apparition (34.2% vs 3.6%).
And again more obvious is the fact that shoes rich of 8s and 9s make more probable this possibility.

(Q2: Does your logic above also suggest that a 4-card hand is similarly less probable to show Bk-to-Bk? What about 5-card hand ??)
 


Naturally it's way more likely to get a back to back 37.8% math probability (4-card hands) than a 30.5% math probability (5-card hands), anyway both fight against a greater world.

Those are just 'general' math values that must be filtered with the actual shoe conditions considered by patterns and key cards concentration/dilution.

Thus itlr even 4, 5 or 6 cards successions impact the patterns formation. We do not know which side will win but we could assess the 'ranges' of intervention.

More later

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 19, 2022, 02:38:21 AM
A succession of events will be really random whenever we can assign to it the attribute of a 'collective' (RVM), so in our example about cards employed to form a hand any 4, 5 or 6 succession happening at every shoe dealt must produce 'random' so unbeatable sequences.

4-card situations are surely symmetrical, a fair portion of 6-card situations are surely symmetrical. But 5-card events are strongly asymmetrical by definition as either for the situation or for the bac rules, one side is heavily favored to win the hand.

Now, a finite and slight dependent actual card distribution cannot be considered as an endless random production, meaning there will be spots endorsing asymmetrical spots by a value different than an expected number. In a word, 5-card situations will privilege one side or at least more likely 'ranges' of apparition. Therefore bac shoes are not a collective, then beatable.

ITLR and you can bet everything you get on your name, it's the number of 5-card situations guessed right or not that make you winners or losers, shoe per shoe.

In fact, 4-card and a huge portion of 6-card situations are symmetrical, so unbeatable by definition.
Sometimes you'll guess right and other times you'll be wrong. At the end the sum will be 0 (before vig).

Say you know for sure that the next hand will be a 5-card hand, the only situation to be hugely right or hugely wrong.
Obviously you'll be inclined to bet B as there are more winning 5-card hands at B side than P side.
True, yet a fair amount of 5-card hands go toward Player side, think about standing or natural P points or asymmetrical spots where third cards help the P with Banker standing.

Do not forget that B winning hands are payed 0.95:1 and that a fair amount of 5-card hands (nearly 40%) are strongly favorite (at various degrees) to win the P side at the start.

It's like we're playing a game where the most part of results (4-card and 6-card hands) are belonging to an undetectable world and the remaining portion (5-card hands) is splitted between B and P.
And, imo, it's just the attitude to 'guess' which side will be more kissed in such 5-card hands occurences that itlr will make us winners or losers.
The major hint to look for is, again, the 'clustering effect' as more propositions are considered at the same production, lesser is the probability to get 'equaling' results up to some cutoff points.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 20, 2022, 08:54:10 PM
Clusters

Say A is a betting approach toward clusters and B the 'anti clusters' counterpart.

In no way at a random production A>B, let alone B>A. In fact even an excess of anti clusters B constitutes a cluster of some kind.

Things tend to differ when we have reasons to think that the production is not really random.
Now clusters are more likely to happen, but again they could manifest by 'excesses' of A or B taken at different portions of the shoe.

The dilemma is deciding when to take the A or B route and how long.

Of course there are several 'clusters' to look for, not necessarily considered by common BP (or r/b) patterns

Example.

Whenever we bet Banker we hope Player will draw first, as B is generally advantaged no matter what.
Obviously when Player is standing, B side is underdog to win at various levels.

It could happen that a P drawing will win many hands in a row and, conversely, that a P standing will lose some hands in a row, but the rule is that situations when P draws make B advantaged and when P stands makes B underdog.

Anyway, situations when P draws may be classified under different classes (none, singled, two in a row, etc) and such feature is way unbalanced along any shoe we're playing at.
The same about P standing points (nearly 40% of total hands), now with the important factor that we'll expect a greater number of none or singled situations than clustered situations at different levels.

In reality the actual card distribution tends to deny 'expected' values up to some cutoff points.
For example, in ten hands considered, the P standing/P drawing ratio will very rarely reach the 4/6 value.

Thus we may infer that P drawing and P standing situations more likely move around 'clusters'.

That doesn't mean that guessing the P drawing or standing nature it's a condition to win, but it's a good start.
Let's name it as a 'first clustering factor' happening along any shoe dealt.

Next step (twilight zone) is to assess how many times a so called unfavorite side will win (we do not care about the times when an advantaged side will get the best of it as this is the common course of action).
Now we should assess how many third cards will make P side to win (and vice versa) and how many standing points will succumb to opposite better standing points.

We'll see that later.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 21, 2022, 02:20:17 AM
Once you have determined the actual P drawing or P standing gaps (in relationship of their expected probability), well, sky's the limit in the sense you'll crush every live bac table in the world.
Providing to assign a proper value to the 'twilight zone', that is the events affecting the math oriented situations for actual card distributions tending to surpass given cutoff points (so 'gaps').

Most of the times the twilight zone is relatively insensitive to actual occurences deviating from the norm, yet they could get you a harsh damage at your bankroll especially when you like to place a lot of bets.

Example.

For whatever reason, you think P side will be more probable than B side. In math terms that means P side will get a standing point by a proportion greater than 40%.
You bet Player getting a standing 7. Nice job so far.
Unfortunately Banker shows a natural and you lose. Even worse is when B side has any point different than 6,7,8 and 9 and will catch as third card a card surpassing your 7.

Now, how many times such instance could happen?
Maybe once, maybe two. After this 'cutoff point' we're not interested to chase a math more likely situation as the actual card distribution put a strong stop on it.
The reason is because the number of standing 7s at P side is limited and the shoe is a finite and dependent world.

It's the same reason working at asymmetrical spots when the third card instructs the Banker to stand while Player has a winning hand.

Maybe in the future Banker will win by standing points but the asymmetrical spots are somewhat consumed as they are limited in their appearance.
With the decisive difference that P standing points get a 40% probability to happen whereas asymmetrical spots have a 8.6% probability to happen, that is 4.65 times more likely to show up.

I've been repeating this important concept many times in my pages:

To win itlr you must take the math advantaged side giving a fk about transitory results, those are there just to illude recreational players (99.9% of bac players, maybe more than that).
If you'd bet P side and P side is drawing, you know your bet is more likely to lose than win, no matter the final fkng result.
Conversely if your bet is placed at B side and Player is standing, you are losing money. 

Say that you'll bet Banker only after a single P standing (Ps) point will happen.
Since Ps < Pd (P drawing spots), you might conclude to get a kind of edge as Ps + Ps < Ps + Pd.
Unluckily, some card distributions make Ps + Ps > Ps + Pd.
So we move to the further step.

That is: Ps + Ps + Ps < Ps + Ps + Pd.

Now the likelihood to be wrong (that is to get a third Ps) is way more limited but it still happen.

No need to look further, our Ps expected propensity went wrong at two consecutive levels, no matter how were the actual results.

The reason why we stop the Pd propensity after two steps is because shoe is limited and dependent, of course we might prolong the Pd propensity up to three consecutive steps but it takes too much time to look at those occurences.

Nonetheless, Ps spots are way more likely to show up as singled or two-paced, even if real outcomes are hurting us.

Try to bet Banker after any Ps spot shows up, then after a couple of Ps spots show up.
Obviously you can't be more wrong than the expected EV-.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on September 22, 2022, 05:06:01 PM
Many thx Asymbacguy for your elaborate answers to my Q up above.

Many gold nuggets:

Well, there's a 7.3% general math propensity toward 4-card hands than 5-card hands formation. Obviously the main factor orienting 4-card hands is the naturals apparition (34.2% vs 3.6%).
And again more obvious is the fact that shoes rich of 8s and 9s make more probable this possibility.
...

yet a fair amount of 5-card hands go toward Player side, think about standing or natural P points or asymmetrical spots where third cards help the P with Banker standing.

Do not forget that B winning hands are payed 0.95:1 and that a fair amount of 5-card hands (nearly 40%) are strongly favorite (at various degrees) to win the P side at the start.

...

It's the same reason working at asymmetrical spots when the third card instructs the Banker to stand while Player has a winning hand.

Maybe in the future Banker will win by standing points but the asymmetrical spots are somewhat consumed as they are limited in their appearance.
With the decisive difference that P standing points get a 40% probability to happen whereas asymmetrical spots have a 8.6% probability to happen, that is 4.65 times more likely to show up.


    I agree 100% on this last one. Im always astonished at how many players will state or suggest their "go to" method is to always bet Banker. Its funny that in past couple months I've had two acquaintances that play poker and related games(with above-avg skill) on a semi-professional level come up to me and state: I've got this friend or brother,...etc that makes a killing playing Bac and he always bets Banker continuously and everytime, ("and he wins big,makes a living,makes huge money...etc), as if they are trying to impress me knowing that I mostly play Bac.
They lose me as soon as they state : "he only bets Banker everytime".


Continued Success,

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 25, 2022, 08:30:52 PM
Hi KFB!
I can't agree more on your words!

If people claim to win constantly by always (or only) wagering Banker side, they should win constantly by always wagering Player side: the difference is just a miserable worse 0.18% ROI.
In fact ask them to let you know what's their Banker winning percentage: to get a long term advantage the wp must be 51.3% or higher.
At Player side it should be 50.1% or higher.

Obviously in the short term such values could be misinterpreted as a kind of 'magic skills', in reality it's just a chance factor.

Neither a statistical long term study made on the slight math propensity to get more B rich patterns than P rich patterns will help them (or anybody).

The only way to win constantly at this game is trying to catch the 'actual' card distribution features that are surely dictated by several levels of asymmetry (about this topic in general I recommend the reading of N. Taleb books).

This has almost nothing to share with common strategic lines as 'following trends', unless we have strictly determined what a 'trend' really is and what are the limits of intervention along any shoe dealt.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 28, 2022, 02:32:06 AM
Random walk steps applied to a bac card distribution

In a random and symmetrical proposition (e.g. a coin flip succession), random walk steps are undetectable by definition. Several roulette studies (ignoring zero/es) confirmed that no matter after which trigger point we'll decide to bet (example after a 3 or greater sigma happening at one side), every next spin will be 50/50.
Obviously.

At baccarat things work in a similar way only apparently.

First, the propositon is asymmetrical by the rules (B>P);

Secondly, there's a more important asymmetrical factor regarding the actual card distribution, being finite and slight dependent;

Third, we have strong reasons to think that bac shoes are not perfect randomly shuffled.

Putting things into a semplified scheme:

- Coin flip successions: symmetrical + symmetrical = symmetrical

- Bac shoe successions: asymmetrical + asymmetrical + asymmetrical = asymmetrical

Itlr both propositions will approach more and more the math expected values (50% for coin flips and 50.68%/49.32% for BP hands) but surely by different random walk steps.

Nonetheless at baccarat there are some patterns more likely to roam around the 0 point, that is getting a lesser number of bell curve thick 'tails'.
Those that can be a 'heaven' or a 'hell'.

It could be surprising that three levels of asymmetry are roaming more probably around a 0 neutral point (providing the patterns to look for), but that's it.

A possible explanation is that whereas a math asymmetry (B>P) works as a costant, the remaining two factors tend to overwhelm (or conversely to endorse) the first propensity.
In practical terms everything stands as a more likely 'clustered' probability working at different steps.

Naturally such steps are whimsically placed along shoes, anyway 'heaven' and 'hell' will get more detectable spots than an unbeatable random and independent symmetrical proposition. For their more likelihood to go toward left or right up to cutoff points and always considering a 0 'target'.

More on that next week.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 02, 2022, 09:15:59 PM
For sure to win itlr at baccarat we need to 'catch' the 'best' propensity coming out from the actual card distribution.
We do not need astounding propensity values to be ahead of the math negative edge, everything moves around tiny percentages that in the long run will add up.
Definitely whenever those great propensity levels come around we better take advantage of them. Yet they are not so likely to show up.

That's why statistics will help us to define the terms of intervention as huge propensity values are not coming around the corner.

A given card distribution eliciting a univocal propensity happening for the entire shoe is out of order, it's way way more probable to get several 'propensity' levels.

Card matchings forming B/P or r/b results act by several levels quite different than a 50/50 independent model.

Thus we may introduce the term of 'shoe multiple propensity levels', meaning that cards may or may not endorse the formation of some patterns.

So propensity P could be splitted into subclasses of P1, P2, P3 and so on.

Later.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 03, 2022, 02:35:22 AM
If shoes will produce inconsistent patterns for long, that is featuring propensity values not surpassing some cutoff points, the game would be easily beatable by a simple MM procedure.

Unfortunately the number of shoes NOT featuring inconsistent patterns are a large minority, so we're somewhat forced to 'guess' when different levels of propensity will surpass or not such cutoff points.

Therefore to hope to win itlr P (P1 + P2 * P3, etc) must be cumulatively > R (random world). In other words if P=R we cannot have a single possibility to win itlr.

Obviously we can confide that the R is just a virtual entity to face, as cards cannot be properly and randomly shuffled per every shoe dealt.
So R is not a perfect R, then P must be larger than R at least at some portions of the shoe capable to erase a P=R effect.

Yes, even R will produce natural Ps, but in the long run those Ps are surely inferior to the number of Ps following an actual unrandom card distribution. And needless to say, right guesses made when R seems to overwhelm Ps are just symmetrically placed. That is unbeatable by definition.

That's why Alrelax stressed about the importance to adhere at most of what the actual shoe is presenting. That is not hoping to get infinite Ps, but to select the situations where P should be greater than R as it's a natural occurence at unrandom shoes.

Put things into a simplified way.

We think that a kind of P propensity will happen after a given event(s) happened.
Of course whether the production is really random, the number of right 'guesses' will be equal to the number of 'wrong' guesses. Unbeatable propositions as P=R.

Actually a bac shoe is oriented to form many P flows, even multiple low level Ps will produce a pattern. Easily beatable by a MM approach. 
Do not be fooled about the supposedly 'randomness' of the shoes, it's a fkng idiocy stated by mathematicians that like to mix different asymmetrical situations into a whole.

Baccarat is a game of clusters getting different levels of appearance.
Each level follows a general probability to happen that must be compared to the actual probability.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 03, 2022, 02:45:37 AM
Remember that at baccarat you can choose the side to wager any amount you wish and anytime you wish.
And maximum limits are quite huge.

Moreover, bac players are considered as pure losers even while betting thousands.
At bj tables, people utilizing a $20-$80 betting spread seem to be a treat for the house. LOL.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on October 03, 2022, 04:30:22 AM
As you said, "Baccarat is a game of clusters getting different levels of appearance. Each level follows a general probability to happen that must be compared to the actual probability."

Which can happen at any time, 'due' or not.  As well, might and very well be extremely large at times bringing about words describing such clusters as 'rare' and 'unbelievable'. 

And, what sends me ROMAL with real tears from my eyes  caused by laughing so hard, are all the forum bac/gambling mathematicians, when they carry over their stats shoe after shoe after shoe, stating how their numbers are correct because they run continuously and cannot be limited to each shoe, etc.

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 05, 2022, 12:42:44 AM
Al, I've carefully read your post about randomness at bac, I'll present my opinions on the subject here.

Baccarat randomness

You sayed well: probability theory and randomness are very intricate fields, many times producing strong disagreements among statistics and math experts.

Here we are talking about a gambling game and, more importantly, about its possible beatability.
Whereas it's debatable a sure and firm definition of 'randomness', we are certain that a pure random EV- game can't be beaten.
I agree with you that 'reading randomness' is a foolish attempt to take the best of bac and having a 0 possibility of success.
But since I know some successful and consistent bac winners (including myself, you and probably a couple of other forums writers), I infer that the most likely (!) explanation is that the game is not so randomly distributed thus giving very few players the hints to beat it itlr.

In fact, if a player tells he/she's beating baccarat and at the same time stating that the baccarat production is 'random', well this person should be able to win even at single 0 roulettes where for sure the production is random.
Now I haven't known a single person capable to win at unbiased wheels but at baccarat such people exist.
Of course another possible reason is that roulette outcomes are totally independent and bac is a slight card dependent game, but again that confirms that some portions of the shoe are not random.

Uncertainty vs randomness

Casinos' profits prosper about a indeniable math edge and for the 'uncertainty' of the outcomes that has nothing to share with pure randomness.

For example, even at bj where math edges shift from the house to the players, the 'uncertain' world poses a serious treat about such math edge. As the 'randomness' condition may not be satisfied.
That happens as we just make an 'estimation' of the high cards-aces/low cards ratio; in poor words our expected profitable high cards portions could be confined right at the unplayable end of the shoe.
That is when a favourable math edge is verified, we need shoes to be shuffled by a fair level of randomness.

At baccarat the opposite is true. IMO.
Since we can't rely upon a math edge, we must 'hope' shoes are not perfect randomly shuffled and this thing can more likely happen at some portions of the shoe as almost all cards are used to be played.

The fact that we are 'uncertain' about the next hand(s) destiny doesn't necessarily mean hands are 'randomly' shuffled as the uncertain world can be measured whereas a random world can't besides the common 'imperfect' and general values not helping us in any way. (Obviously this last part of the statement implies a kind of perfect random shuffle for every shoe dealt)

How to detect a possible non randomness at baccarat

If some people win consistently at this game just two things must happen: a) bac productions are non random; b) baccarat successions produce flaws capable to erase and invert the negative math edge.
Since the scientific world has denied the latter possibility (at least at a significant level, see Jacobson studies about a perfect PC card counting technique made on BP hands), the only possible explanation is about non randomness whether properly exploited.

First, how to classify any events succession as 'really' random?

General probability theory doen's help much in this way for its intrinsic limits and foremost for a lack of deep studies made on the subject. Always oriented to get a kind of advantage by knowing certain cards concentration/dilution helping one side.

But, more importantly, is the succession we're facing really randomly produced?

Jaynes, Keller, Diaconis and others made important studies about this issue, yet the best definition of randomness I like is the RVM's one.
Simplifying, no matter which point of the succession you take, a random production will get the same limiting values of relative frequency at any different point considered.
And at baccarat this thing doesn't exist.

Say I'll ask you: what's the probability that a toss or several tosses of a specific dice will show a '6' face?
Obviously the 'theorical' best answer is 1/6, that is 16.666%.
Say that after 100 tosses the frequency of '6' is 20%. You could think that this is a natural effect of positive variance getting normal sd values (even quite deviated toward one side).
If after 1000 tosses the frequency still stands around 19% or 20% you might think that the dice is  biased or that the 'shooter' doesn't 'randomly' toss the dice in some way.
After 10.000 tosses you'll get a clearer picture of what the 'actual' probability is about the dice getting a '6' face.

But regarding the actual dice probability to show a '6' there are more important properties to look for other that the final occurence: for example what's the most likely number coming out after any number different than 6.
Or splitting the outcomes into odd and even categories, or classifying the average gaps between '6's.

At baccarat we might think that the production is somewhat biased, but in the same way a possible dice may be biased or unrandomly tossed under multiple statistical parameters (and most of the times is not), we need a proper amount of hands to exploit such flaws. Shoe per shoe.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on October 05, 2022, 04:32:38 PM
It is truly random, BUT.........The Key Lies in the Following:

.........."So, if it is impossible to predict randomness, what can we do to predict winning hands? I would strongly say, that we should expect some sequences to be perfectly parallel as well as, those that look non-random or simply lopsided. Do not limit yourself to the consistency or the inconsistency as the indication of what to wager. Rather, be alert to the sequences producing parallel or lopsided outcomes and siding with those."
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 24, 2022, 02:16:39 AM
I'd think that there are times to get some situations to last and other times to play those events to stop. We'll see this important topic within a couple of days.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 26, 2022, 02:25:45 AM
It's quite likely that whenever we sit at a bac table we find ourselves to gamble instead of carefully considering our opportunities.

Gambling = losing

Most of the times gambling means to ride a possible wave to last for long or forever or, worse, to get it to stop after a long negative sequence.

It's a proven fact that gambling rides in direct relationship of the betting rate, the more we gamble higher will be our 'gambling factor' leading us to a sure loss.

Unfortunately as humans we like to gamble way more whenever we're losing, not considering that every bet is a new bet.

More bets we're placing higher will be the probability to fall into the 'undetectable' world but this thing is true only whenever we're considering bets as single bets and not by 'ranges'.

It's like that sometimes we have to take the casino's hope, that is to bet the opposite side we have thought to wager or simply not to bet at all.

The only way casinos are losing serious money is whenever strong univocal situations happen (and it doesn't happen so often), thus the only way we players might win serious money is by wagering the opposite more likely counterpart or to bet the univocal situations up to a point. Or, better yet, not to bet at all.

Practically speaking the winning process is a delicate evaluation of winning or losing streaks, knowing thay we can afford to let them to reach some values without risking a dime.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on October 26, 2022, 04:23:48 AM
as:
knowing thay we can afford to let them to reach some values without risking a dime.

:nod:
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 26, 2022, 08:50:58 PM
Thanks KFB!

How to lose the composure in 7 hands

Oh well, I thought to be immune to the worst scenarios but I can't believe about this sequence spread in two shoes. All hands were consecutive losses. 

Hand #1  Bet on Banker (2-10) 8, Player shows (A-J) K

Hand #2 Bet on Player (Q-5) 3, Banker (2-Q) 7

Hand #3 Bet on Player (J-J) 8  Banker (J-10) 9

Hand #4 Bet on Banker (A-A) 8  Player (9-2) K. Quite funny it's a sort of repetition of hand #1

Hand #5 Bet on Banker (3-2) 5 Player (4-10) 7

Hand #6 Bet on Player (Q-8) Banker (A-8)  Ok, a classical hand in the 'right' moment of the night  :thumbsdown:

Hand #7 Bet on Player (2-J) 6 Banker (6-K) 3

Bad sequence? Not necessarily, think about those three 200:1 spots...

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on October 26, 2022, 09:08:00 PM
A couple places I play at any side three-card 8/9 is a 200:1 payout.  $25.00 quarter is a $5,000.00 pay!

Also both sides, anyway naturals 8/9 (one side 8 and one side 9) is a payout of 50:1.

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 27, 2022, 08:04:30 PM
That's the 'beauty' of side bets: they do not come out often but rarely they show up so clustered that there's no shame to put a tiny bet on them.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 28, 2022, 12:13:17 AM
Setting up a system

In probability theory a well know concept is "The impossibility of a gambling system".

The principle of the impossibility of a gambling system is a concept in probability. It states that in a random sequence, the methodical selection of subsequences does not change the probability of specific elements. The first mathematical demonstration is attributed to Richard von Mises (who used the term collective rather than sequence).


Richard Von Mises is an old acquaintance on these pages, mainly as he postulated the strongest definition of randomness ever.

Here we want to consider in practical non academic terms whether a system is 'possible' at baccarat.

One.

It's intuitive to think that if no system works any other approach wouldn't. Providing sequences are random regardless of the method utilized.
In a nutshell, successful players of both categories rely upon 'non randomness' of the outcomes.

It's quite easy to see whether a system is good or destined to fail, it's more debatable to know if a 'no system' player will be ahead itlr.
Yet with no strict measuraments of the results (of course that must be replicable), we are talking about thin air.


Two.

Advantages of a possible system over other approaches

Poor emotional impact over the outcomes. If we have tested that a system will work itlr, no weird situations (e.g. see my post above) should affect the mechanical steps of the process, maybe by luring players to deviate from the procedure.


Disadvantages.

Above statement: Easier sayed than done.
Think about being in the strong negative field and to face patterns we don't bet and making huge winners the rest of the table.

After all, best players in the world are gamblers, maybe making educated guesses but remain gamblers.
That is it's best to win and being happy than winning in a kind of depressed mood.

Unfortunately it's less likely to be happy and winning than to be sad or in neutral mood and losing.

Three.

A system player is more adapted to the natural negative variance than any other player, mainly as he/she thinks the game as a long term succession not splitted into sessions, days or other very short term evaluations.
At the same token he/she generally considers in a more careful fashion the strong positive situations happening along the course of his/her action.


Four.

Technicality #1

A possible system works by a strict flat betting scheme.
If any shoe dealt would produce random successions the probability to win is 0.
Humans can't read randomness by any means, actually casinos hope their shoes to be randomly offered and somewhat hoping some shoes will produce strong deviations to be caught by players. So giving the perfect 'illusion' that the game could be beaten.

HE can only be beaten by a bet selection working at supposedly unrandom productions and not by progressions or human guesses, therefore most of our bets must be placed at EV+ spots otherwise we'll lose.

Five.

Technicality #2

Standard deviation values of our bets are the watchdog of randomness or possible unrandomness.

Say that after 10 sets of 1000 resolved (no ties) hands wagered our system had encountered a losing streak not greater than 8.
Expected probability teaches us that after 10.000 resolved hands wagered a greater than a 8 losing streak will come out on average nearly 19 times. But we got no one.

Is this a valuable finding to set up a system?
But more importantly, what are the best spots to risk our money at?

Six.

Technicality #3

Baccarat is not black jack where classes of cards orient the probability toward the house or the player so needing millions of simulations to know the 'estimated' (as many cards are burnt from the play) favourable or unfavourable math values.

Simplifying, a possible bac system capable to win after 10.000 resolved hands is a pretty good one.
If the system provides a strict flat betting scheme, the probability to be ahead by chance is very close to zero.

Seven.

Technicality #4

Collectives (result successions taken by infinite levels) getting sd values quite different to expected values applied to a random model and in consideration of the math probability of the possible outcomes are not real collectives. So unrandom shaped by definition. So fkng beatable.

Eight.

Technicality #5

Regardless of a bet selection capable to get the advantage of verified smaller sd values than expected, variance remains a strong enemy of every system or replicable approach, especially when adopting a flat betting scheme.

In order to reduce the variance's impact acute players tend to utilize three ploys:

a) waiting that a moderate-strong unwanted deviation will come out then betting huge;

b) progressively betting by a multilayered multistep scheme just on positive spots;

c) progressively betting by a multilayered multistep scheme after negative spots of any lenght came out (so a light negative spot constitutes the trigger).

Once we've verified our possible edge, the decision to take one of the three different approach is unimportant, maybe and providing a proper bankroll a mix of the three is best.

Remember that anytime we sit at a bac table we must adopt a kind of 'sky's the limit' approach, the only thing we can concede at casinos is their HE that counts nothing itlr.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on October 28, 2022, 03:21:59 PM
Hi as / thx for all your writings(especially this one).
There are many true statements and just a few of my favorites are posted below.

I like that your essays include real-time table experiences along with statistics, not ignoring either, and blending them appropriately. IMO there is room for both in a professional Bac players regime(or there better be room for both) if one wants to survive at the tables.

I will comment more this weekend as your truisms deserve a more detailed reply.

Not in any particular order of importance:

*It's intuitive to think that if no system works any other approach wouldn't. Providing sequences are random regardless of the method utilized.
In a nutshell, successful players of both categories rely upon 'non randomness' of the outcomes.

*A system player is more adapted to the natural negative variance than any other player, mainly as he/she thinks the game as a long term succession not splitted into sessions, days or other very short term evaluations.

*If any shoe dealt would produce random successions the probability to win is 0.
Humans can't read randomness by any means, actually casinos hope their shoes to be randomly offered and somewhat hoping some shoes will produce strong deviations to be caught by players. So giving the perfect 'illusion' that the game could be beaten.

*HE can only be beaten by a bet selection working at supposedly unrandom productions and not by progressions or human guesses, therefore most of our bets must be placed at EV+ spots otherwise we'll lose.

*Standard deviation values of our bets are the watchdog of randomness or possible unrandomness.

*If the system provides a strict flat betting scheme, the probability to be ahead by chance is very close to zero.

*Regardless of a bet selection capable to get the advantage of verified smaller sd values than expected, variance remains a strong enemy of every system or replicable approach, especially when adopting a flat betting scheme.

*Remember that anytime we sit at a bac table we must adopt a kind of 'sky's the limit' approach, the only thing we can concede at casinos is their HE that counts nothing itlr.


    IMO on this last one: Variance always swamps HE.


Good thread AsymBacGuy and I look forward to your future discussions on the above. I encourage others to jump in and offer their opinions/ questions as well.


Continued Success,

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 29, 2022, 11:50:16 PM
You are too kind with me, KFB! Thanks a lot!
I'm looking forward to hear from you more comments on that, thanks again.

Continuing the topic.

Nine.

Casinos get their (huge) baccarat profits by a very slow winning rate, step by step and the proof is that not infrequently many premises register one or a couple of losing months per year.
Math (HE) needs time to get its full power.

Similarly successful players collect the wins by the same slow rate, step by step.
Statistical procedures (but even math advantaged situations) need time to get their full power.

Time is paramount when gambling and it can't be restricted by human guesses or hopes.

Ten.

Systems tend to give the idea that they can win little by risking a lot, yet also casinos could risk a lot by potentially winning little.

Players duty is to get more symmetrical (or asymmetrically shifted to their side) the above assumption:

a) casinos confide about two different levels of 'certainty': HE (100% sure) and random productions (unsure).

b) players cannot do nothing about HE but they can be sure about the non random productions.

Everything eventually converges into the 'probability of success' (POS), that is the level of certainty to be winners itlr.

Casinos will have a 100% POS providing their productions are really random; since they are not, their POS can't be 100%.

Players know very well that itlr math related POS is 0 (so every system based on math is worthless), providing every production to be random.
Since this last parameter is not fulfilled, their POS varies with different levels of confidence.

Eleven.

Powerful 'systems' provide a very diluted betting scheme in relationship of actual outcomes as no matter the unrandomness of the production very few spots will get us a manageable and detectable edge over the house.
Actually the edge remains constant but the variance will be more 'controllable' thus privileging a lower bankroll employment.

The common denominator is the 'complexity' of considered patterns as there's no way to get 'more likely' complex events to be denied for long per every shoe dealt.

Maybe more likely complex events stay silent for one step or two, sometimes for three steps, then they invariably will come out.

Of course the texture of the actual shoe will help us to define the terms of intervention of such probability, sometimes 'enemy' patterns show up so rarely that the shoe is a 'sky's the limit' one.

A careful assessment of such different probabilities percentages constitute the basis of the 'progressive' betting made by a multilayered multilevel scheme.
We'll see tomorrow this topic.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on October 31, 2022, 03:20:17 AM
Hi all,

Asymbac in your Setting Up A System post #711 above you say:

"...
In order to reduce the variance's impact acute players tend to utilize three ploys:

a) waiting that a moderate-strong unwanted deviation will come out then betting huge;

b) progressively betting by a multilayered multistep scheme just on positive spots;

c) progressively betting by a multilayered multistep scheme after negative spots of any lenght came out (so a light negative spot constitutes the trigger).

Once we've verified our possible edge, the decision to take one of the three different approach is unimportant, maybe and providing a proper bankroll a mix of the three is best.
..."


a) waiting that a moderate-strong unwanted deviation will come out then betting huge;
    Can you give a specific example of this (and how you would typically wager that spot. e.g., One bet , 2-step neg pro,...etc, or do you do a longer neg pro (say 5-step neg pro),...etc. or None of the above?  other?



Q: Are you personally more likely to wager a slow neg pro in perceived EV+ spot or if you hit that first wager are u then more likely to do a pospro (i.e., Pressing that first hit) in the same or other EV+ spot(s) later in that shoe or following shoe(s)??


Thx in advance,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on October 31, 2022, 03:24:31 AM
As you said in Post 706:

" The only way casinos are losing serious money is whenever strong univocal situations happen (and it doesn't happen so often), thus the only way we players might win serious money is by wagering the opposite more likely counterpart or to bet the univocal situations up to a point. Or, better yet, not to bet at all."

And..............when it's there..............whatever it might be............you pounce on it——-HARD.  To a point as I say ( and as you said as well, spot on, then back to one's Level and Plateau. 

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 31, 2022, 11:21:59 PM
Hi KFB!

a) waiting that a moderate-strong unwanted deviation will come out then betting huge;
    Can you give a specific example of this (and how you would typically wager that spot. e.g., One bet , 2-step neg pro,...etc, or do you do a longer neg pro (say 5-step neg pro),...etc. or None of the above?  other?


Practically it's the RTM effect applicated to certain subsuccessions when same bet selections are utilized.
We know that random and independent productions won't give any exploitable room to get this effect working, in the sense that no matter the point of the subsuccession we consider as 'trigger', future results will be conformed to expected (unbeatable) values.
Fortunately at baccarat things are quite different.

Thus after a moderate-strong deviation of a less likely event (unwanted event) and while wagering toward a more likely event, our EV won't be always negative but moving within different ranges in relationship of how unrandom was the production.
Very rarely it may happen that the actual shoe is so 'unrandomly' shuffled that the 'more likely world' remains just as a potentiality.
But itlr (say in every term beside very short terms) the number of RTM spots will overcome the remaining situations.

Hence, fictionally waiting toward such strong-moderate less likely events deviations before betting more often than not will erase and invert the HE.

It's obvious that the betting amount reflects the actual strategy we wish to employ at the table.
I'll be more specific in my next post.

Yet if a 'moderate' deviation is a good trigger to risk our money at, we must know that sometimes 'moderate' could shift into 'strong' instead of going toward the searched RTM effect.

So our possible edge won't be 'proportionally' placed in relationship of how many bets we have won or lost (for real or fictionally) previously as the actual level of unrandomness will make a primary role about results.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on November 01, 2022, 03:38:12 AM
QuoteAs you said in Post 706:

" The only way casinos are losing serious money is whenever strong univocal situations happen (and it doesn't happen so often), thus the only way we players might win serious money is by wagering the opposite more likely counterpart or to bet the univocal situations up to a point. Or, better yet, not to bet at all."

And..............when it's there..............whatever it might be............you pounce on it——-HARD.  To a point as I say ( and as you said as well, spot on, then back to one's Level and Plateau.

Yes, when things seem to go toward our favor, push and push and push.

Do not be afraid to push when winning but expect the worst when losing.

A large percentage of casinos' profits come from bad players attitude loving to bet huge as losers and being more prudent when winning.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on November 02, 2022, 02:45:08 AM
Hi Asym/ thx for your reply to my Qs.

To clarify this following statement from your post above-- October 31, 2022, 11:21:59 PM:

"...Yet if a 'moderate' deviation is a good trigger to risk our money at, we must know that sometimes 'moderate' could shift into 'strong' instead of going toward the searched RTM effect..."

Are you saying this moderate deviation may instead of continuing with RTM may actually turn the other direction and become even stronger (meaning diverge away from TM) ?


Thx in advance,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on November 09, 2022, 03:32:33 PM
Hi KFB!

Yep, exactly that!

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on November 10, 2022, 04:54:06 PM
Hi AsymBacGuy


"A large percentage of casinos' profits come from bad players attitude loving to bet huge as losers and being more prudent when winning."


I agree 100%. This is a phenomenon that I perceive is just  a part of the human psyche.  IMO it has much to do with how we are bombarded with "fear" from an early age and throughout life.
Plus, coupled with our emotions tied to money, and this can allow fear to really affect our decisions.

I see fear being utilized everyday in our lives.

e.g., Roadside assistance insurance for your roadside assistance plan,..etc.

e.g., Insurance for the possibility that our new electronic device may not last x # of years.
IMO that's what the manufacturers 2-year warranty is for. Unless its an expensive item we shouldnt have much fear about all the whatifs.

     I recently bought an extension for a lightbulb socket(basically an extension that screws into the light bulb recepticle and drops down 3"). The cost was $6.95. I immediately started receiving offers that for just $2.95 (43% of the actual cost of the gadget), I could insure that extension for two years (of course this 2.95 policy would only start after the manufacturers 2-year warranty had ended).  FEAR.
I declined.lol. I have NO FEAR, just like at the Bac table,lol..
If my $7 gadget malfunctions in 23mo Ill just toss it and go spend another $7.

Our whole society tries to "FEAR" us into a life of fear.

Same as at the Bac table. Its my opinion we fear losing too much in comparison with our emotions for accepting a big Win.

Cheers, kfb
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on November 12, 2022, 08:09:52 PM
I clearly see larger losses than win amounts, both in the per hand and per session.  It is physically evident.

When the highest majority of players do win, the problem is, they are on an all out mission with visions of redeeming themselves and regaining any lost funds, current and/or past.

As well, most players do not, or they simply get too wound up to implement proper MMM with adherence  to their levels and plateaus which would govern their wagers and time played, etc.  The smart way allowing yourself an advantage to hold and govern win money the proper way.

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on November 17, 2022, 05:20:57 PM
New important concepts are coming soon, imo of course.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on November 28, 2022, 02:25:19 AM
Casinos' advantage

First, forget the idea that casinos earn a lot of money by taking advantage of their math edge.
No one casino will accumulate huge profits at bac tables by getting a fkng 1.25% average edge, they profit a lot more than that.
Stup.id side bets? Maybe.
Improper players' money wagering? Sure as hell.

Consider that a fair coin flip succession isn't beatable by definition, we shouldn't give a flying fk if eventually we are supposed to break even.

In any fair proposition the wealthiest side will get the underdog side sooner or later.
Are we richer than casinos? No way. And even if we do are, maximum betting limits pose a real threat on such proposition. For us not for them.
Let's figure out if our bets are taxed somewhat.

Casinos perspective

Without no exception (besides when bac personnel are keen bac players too) anytime you join a table you are considered as a mere perfect stu.pi.d id.i.ot person willing to lose money. A lot of money indeed.
Most of the times they are right and whenever you are not they start to grumble.

They wish you 'good luck' when they intend to say "dude, you have no chance to win".

They are right. The most you play the more you'll lose as math edge is constantly working for them.
But there's a stronger accelerating process working for them either: raising our bets for whatever reason.
This is not about a linear relationship of the money percentage they'll entitled to win mathematically, they know we can't sustain the variance being asymmetrically placed along the way.

Heaven happens: we'll win less than the expected fair return;

Hell happens: we'll go broke.

So this fact should lure us to think what the fk we're doing when joining a bac table:

-are we really exploiting a kind of edge or we are there to just gamble?

Baccarat expectations

Mathematically speaking (so without any shadow of doubt) any possible advantage is best exploited by a strict fkng flat betting strategy and I do not stall the post to prove this by math formulas.

Remember that the best friend of gamblers is variance and the worst enemy of pros is variance.

Same issue to look for but for very different reasons.

Actually this is a strong asymmetrical proposition to look for as gamblers look for just one side of things going their way whereas pros look for two different way of things developing.
Up to a point.

Again, wisest way to ascertain that we're taking the best of things is by adopting a same betting amount, best if we're betting the maximum limit that gives us no room to be outrageously wrong or
outrageously right.

I mean that there's no way to quit a bac table as winners if we didn't catch more W spots than L spots.
People trying to convince you that a lower amount of W hands than L hands will get 'em a profit anyway are fooling you by a 1 billion accuracy.
This thing could really happen just at very short term successions, that is when the natural variance hadn't the room to show up.

Any session MUST be a winning session

This is the most important point to look for, imo.

Whereas at bj we could easily lose several sessions in a row despite a possible carefully assessed math advantage, at baccarat this thing doesn't exist at all.

Actually and providing a fair amount of shoes dealt, an acute player won't lose a dime for each session played. I mean by flat betting, of course.
If he/she is behind, it's because he/she played very bad. Cards are not the culprit of such 'misfortune'.

Profitable opportunities do not come around the corner but they'll come.
We'll see this topic in a couple of days.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on November 30, 2022, 03:11:54 AM
Besides math considerations (virtually for us but practictally for most players, every bet is EV-), it's more likely to NOT guess possible detectable patterns than to guess what the shoe is producing.

I mean that an 'anti pattern' strategy is more likely to come out than a 'profitable patterns' approach.
After all the game is offered just for this fact (and not by casinos exploiting a miserable 1.25% or so HE).

Notice that for 'anti pattern' strategy I do not mean to bet against long streaks or homogeneous situations, just hands that in the most bac players' minds cannot constitute a sensible option.

The reason is because players try to get hints from 'human' detectable patterns and not by following probability issues. That is by simply 'hoping' to get this and not that.

Conversely, people hoping to get something homogeneous to stop (after losing more than one hand) are making a way harsher mistake as they hope to win 1 very often risking more than 1.

Remember the old basic 'rule': an alternate WL or LW succession is slight less likely than any WW or LL sequence coming up along the way in short distance.
Again, BP chopping lines don't belong to this category as the B/P proposition isn't symmetrical for many reasons.

Sayed in another way, short betting ranges make more probable to get clusters of some kind than an alternate WL or LW line.

Therefore hoping to constantly getting Ws (human patterns) is a sure recipe for disaster.

When more and more hands are dealt, we must be prepared to lose (that is to encounter an inevitable losing sequence) that we can challenge by not betting at all (very difficult) or by just betting the 'losing' end of the things (easier to do).

Summary

- at baccarat the least likely scenario to face is a moderate-long series of WL or LW scenarios

- Outliners (strong positive or negative sd tails) constitute the best spots to bet at.

- after 3-4 shoes dealt and providing to bet 3/4 or more hands dealt, the average probability a player will be ahead is pretty slim.

- after 3-4 shoes dealt and providing to bet 3/4 or more hands dealt, the average probability a player will be ahead by taking advantage of the W and L natural tails is about 50%.

- after 3-4 shoes dealt and providing to bet 1/2 or less of hands dealt, the average edge a player will get by taking advantage of the W and L natural tails is about 12-15%.

-after 3-4 shoes dealt and providing to bet 1/10 of the hands dealt, the average edge a player will get by taking advantage of the W and L natural tails is....sky's the limit.

-after 3-4 shoes dealt and providing to bet 1/20 of the hands dealt, the average probability a player will be ahead by taking advantage of the W and L natural tails is...reaching Pluto.

The general assumption is that most of the times fluctuations should stay on the widest part of the bell curve, providing the production would be really random.
Since it's not, we have reasons to think that tails (outliners) are more likely and thicker than expected and this it's one of the many advantages we have while playing baccarat.

Obviously this is just math unsound rattlesnakeshi.t, in the meantime we collect money before they could find we're right.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on November 30, 2022, 11:10:13 PM
Subsuccessions

There's no shadow of doubt that a player capable to win at the original sequence should win at every other subsuccession derived from the primitive either.

Example are derived roads displayed on the screen.
And those derived successions are built by a hand by hand format (providing a fair number of initial hands).

But we could build other subsuccessions by utilizing a preordered 'place selection'. Those are subs ignoring some hands, actually hands falling in specific positions.
In this way we'll get a new sequence formed by an inferior amount of decisions that could come in handy by several factors.
A topic we've already seen in my pages.

Simplest subs to build are the 'alternate road' and the 'two-paced road'. For convenience now we'll consider those subs starting from the very first hand. Ties are ignored.

a) alternate road (AR) is made by registering hands #1, #3, #5, #7, #9 etc up to the end of the shoe.

b) two-paced road (TPR) is made by registering hands #1, #4, #7, #10, #13, #16, #19, etc up the end of the shoe.

On average and assuming 75 resolved decisions, AR will consist of 37-38 hands and TPR about 25 or so hands.

As sayed before, we won't get magic beatable patterns on those new roads (and neither worse patterns to look for), for that matter if the original sequence is really random produced every other subs will be random altogether (and vice versa).

The important consequences are an inferior number of playable spots and the possibile 'confirmation' (technically it's a wrong term) that our winning strategy working at original sequence (OS) must work at those roads too.

Thus if we think to get EV+ spots at OS, we'll get them even at AR and TPR. With the advantage of betting with a lesser frequency (along with other features).

A relative drawback of those new roads plan is that it's quite difficult to jump from table to table, an inconvenience easily avoidable by playing at some Bac Theaters (good speed, yet maximum limits relatively low there).

Since trend following strategies or other amenities like that can't work itlr, we know for sure that by ignoring the OS we won't miss anything valuable or exploitable in the long term.
The question is whether such new roads will make us more focused about the flow of the game. I'd think about an affirmative answer.

Next week more on that.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 07, 2022, 01:54:24 AM
Beyond any reasonable doubt, if we've found ways to beat the original succession, any subsuccession derived from it will be beatable too.

If you think to find out whether your strategy or method should work, do not waste time to test innumerable shoes, just test it at some simple subsuccessions derived from the OS. Itlr the EV+ will be proportionally spread along each succession, giving a flying damn about the variance.

In fact every baccarat shoe is affected by a moderate/huge level of 'unbalancing strenght' acting at several degrees and more often than not, not related to the mere B/P results, let alone about the B/P hands gap.

Think the game about ranges and not about single hands very often confusing the entire picture.

More importantly, think about the consecutive times you'll be right or wrong, that is the  probability to get positive or negative streaks depending on which side you will wager at.

Per each shoe dealt, probability to be right or wrong doesn't relate to the precise number of winning or losing spots we had experienced in the past, otherwise the game would be astoundingly beatable.
For example, two losses in a row doesn't necessarily mean we have to stop the betting, actually many times this is the best way to go.

At the same token, the idea to restart or prolong the betting after one real or fictional win is out of order as the actual shoe could easily provide singled 'subjective' W spots intervaled by multiple L counterparts that has nothing to share with 'humanly' detectable patterns (or long term findings for that matter). Besides the intrinsec general difficulty to place chopping WL or LW results for long.

'Disorder' goes toward the house

If it's quite unlikely to get many players ahead after a tiny amount of shoes dealt (providing such players like to adopt a kind of mere 'following the shoe' strategy), it means that a sort of 'disorder' distribution is more likely to come out so eventually privileging the house.

After all, casinos fear only univocal distributions coming for long and loving the remaining more likely part.

In some sense and without complicated issues to look for, itlr the 'disorder' will overcome the 'order', actually it's the best tool why casinos will get players' money (besides the now unimportant HE).

At the end, we can conclude that baccarat is a game of huge (but controllable) disorder having some peaks of 'order' that of course could become at handy when properly taken.

Yet pros make they constant winnings by betting about a kind of more likely 'disorder' whereas recreational players must hope to get an 'order' of things coming out for quite long.

See you tomorrow.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 12, 2022, 12:39:50 AM
Baccarat is 99% skill and 1% luck

You already know this as it's one of my signatures.

Actually and by far baccarat is the best casino's game where 'skills' will get the player a sure indeniable edge over the house.
I mean a strong constant edge and not some fkng bighorn.sh.it coming out from counting cards (actual bj rules) or from trying to spot biased wheels (actual roulettes) or other topics raised by acute players in years.

In our scheme we concede around a 1% of 'luck' overwhelming the remaining 99% skills impact.

This statement collides strongly with the common worldwide assumption that baccarat is a game of pure luck.
Additionally we should know that even a proposition of 50% skill and 50% luck applied to a EV- game isn't beatable itlr.

How to develop a fair amount of skills in order to beat baccarat itlr

1) Taking advantage of baccarat flaws

There are two kind of baccarat flaws:

a) intrinsic flaws;

b) actual flaws.

Intrinsic flaws are related to the asymmetrical nature of the game and this asymmetry revolves around two distinct issues: B>P and the obvious asymmetrical card ranks distribution.
Since only unintelligent people could think that the former B>P factor could resolve the issue, we should assign a way stronger value at the latter factor, that is the asymmetrical card ranks distribution.
So and just to give an example, when in doubt go for a kind of 'unbalancement' card distribution and not only toward a potential but whimsical and light B math advantage.
Best bac players and all pros will equally like to wager both B and P sides, so selectively privileging card distribution (thus giving a sh.i.t about math).
Of course baccarat streaks are inferior in lenght than at perfect 50/50 independent propositions, a thing that must be always taken into account (up to a point). 

Actual flaws are related to the almost virtual impossibility to deal shoes perfect randomly shuffled.
Remember that math expected values can work just on perfect random productions, otherwise they are somewhat biased at either direction and at different paces.
So the idea that every bet we'll make is always EV- or involving the same EV value is completely wrong. Actually it will be either 'more EV-' or 'way lesser EV-' up to the point that the EV- transforms into a EV+ bet.
For example, a natural point falling at Banker side is EV- for Banker bettors as it gets a 50% probability to appear but a 0.95:1 payment.
So we have more reasons to find out the spots where a natural should fall at Player side than at Banker side. And the same is about standing points not involving a third card rule.

2) Betting frequency

Mathematically at every EV- game, the probability to be ahead by coincidence (chance) is inversely related to the number of bets placed. So less bets we place greater will be the probability to be ahead of something.
Obviously without a verified edge capable to erase and invert the HE, the diluted frequency of our betting placements won't make any sensible advantage for us. We'll lose our money just at a lower speed.

But the important corollary of a 'low betting frequency' is to have more room to estimate the actual card distribution once we had 'discarded' many worthless results along the way.

For example, the 'naturals' apparition is best assessed by 'ranges' and by its average math probability to appear and not by mere 'short term' considerations. Always in relationship of the actual shoe outcomes.

It's kind of getting advantage of things by hoping to get more results than we could before betting, now an opposite philosophy of trying to win in very short terms (at least whether considered in a common way).

3) Amount wagered

If you'd think to play baccarat with an advantage it means you can beat the house by flat betting and not by adopting progressive strategic plans.
We may concede some multilayered slight and slow progressive amounts capable to get rid of the vig, that's it.
But conversely of what many think about, baccarat is not a MM game by any means.

In order to exploit an edge the best strategy to adopt is by flat betting the maximum limit allowed at that table as variance cannot put asymmetrical unwanted situations at different bet amounts.

Variance cannot be controlled by betting amounts, for the house being wealthier than us (due to max betting limits allowed).

4) Baccarat is a game of ranges, that is about how much key cards are concentrated or diluted to mathematically provide some more likely results, so forming more likely patterns.

A topic we'll see in a couple of days.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 12, 2022, 12:52:59 AM
BTW, some brilliant new inputs are coming out at this site and thanks to Alrelax.

Stay tuned.

as. 

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on December 12, 2022, 03:55:07 PM
Great read /thx ASB

"Baccarat is 99% skill and 1% luck"
     I agree with the premise we win with skill vs luck. However, sometimes I need a little more
than 1% luck to get the W, :)  . Meaning sometimes I finish a session and avoid a loss or only get a small win and realize "I was very lucky" and did not deserve the "tie". However, I gladly accept the favor. Baccarat mimics life in many ways.

"4) Baccarat is a game of ranges, that is about how much key cards are concentrated or diluted to mathematically provide some more likely results, so forming more likely patterns."

     Yes indeed my friend. I concur.

Im looking forward to your next installment in this fine thread.



Continued Success
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 14, 2022, 12:39:57 AM
Thanks KFB!!!
It's nice to see we have many common ideas about bac.

4) Baccarat is a game of ranges, that is about how much key cards are concentrated or diluted to mathematically provide some more likely results, so forming more likely patterns.

In probability theory and statistics basically there are three kind of probability:
a) classical, b) frequentist and c) subjective.

Subjective probability here is not of interest.

Classical probability is based on the assumption that possible events are symmetrical in their appearance, for example a dice has six possible symmetrical outcomes so the probability to toss a 5 in one attempt is 1/6 = 16.66%

Frequentist probability is based upon long observations (the longer the better) of events where either we do not know anything about the real probability of their occurrence or because we suspect 'flaws' about the classical probability values whether applicable in the field of interest.

At gambling games we can't argue about classical probability values, providing each event is independent from the previous one and the source of results is random.
In this instance we're talking about a perfect symmetry/symmetry, that is an unbeatable proposition.
(Obviously black jack constitutes an exception and in fact is beatable mathematically)

At baccarat things are much more confused even if long term values converge more and more into the old 50.68%/49.32% B/P proposition dictated by the classical probability.

Why I use the term 'confused'?
Because at bac we can't extract other 'more complex' probabilities (patterns) than B/P by simply multiplicating single probabilities in various ways (the basic operation to get many events probability by the classical point of view). For each shoe being a world apart, having its card distribution and its asymmetrical features mentioned above.
Not mentioning an almost sure unrandom card distribution happening at every shoe dealt.

Actually every baccarat shoe is a single huge 'dynamic' asymmetrical model affecting the patterns way more than what classical probability dictates, mainly as 99.9% of what may happen or not wasn't investigated by a proper procedure (fortunately totally unknown by math pundits of our a$$).

It's obvious that when taking into account long series of shoes the 'mixing of apples with oranges' factor will apply but it's altogether obvious that only a strict frequentist point of view could help us to define the boundaries of the game possibilities.
So only long term observations made at real shoes dealt (best whether coming from a univocal source) might help us to assess whether our method is really good or to be just a fluke. And in that effort the flat betting scheme is by far the best random walk to realize it. 

We could think the strong asymmetrical nature of the game (that, again, has nothing to share with the B/P ratio) as a finite succession having its peaks (strong asymmetry) and periods of relatively low deviations (false symmetry) both converging into 'more likely' or 'less likely' ranges.
Alrelax name them as 'sections'.

Naturally 'peaks' and 'flat' situations are the by product of the actual card distribution. More precisely they are in direct relationship of the key cards concentration/dilution parameter, a process completely dependent as once key cards are removed (or conversely live) in the deck patterns will be affected in some way.
Vulgarly speaking, we can't hope to get a pattern to stop when it's in the 'peak' mood but we can safely assume that a kind of 'flat' situation will happen for quite long.
In some sense, whenever we bet toward a peak raising we're simply gambling (maybe with a good cause) and whenever we bet toward more likely 'flat' patterns we're exploiting the game.

It's clear that forcing a steady state (peak or flat) to change is a strong mistake, instead we should be focused about how many times a'peak' or 'flat' state is going to change into the reversed situation after having collected a quite large of datasets. And obviously we can just estimate such processes by 'ranges'.   

5) Baccarat is a game of numbers

We can't beat baccarat by math, yet we can beat it by numbers.
A contradiction in terms isn't it?

Maybe, but as long as we were and are more right than wrong after years of playing, either we're the luckiest persons in the world or we're up on something.

Numbers can't lie, number successions can't lie either.

We'll see this decisive topic next week.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on December 16, 2022, 05:28:40 AM
Thanks ABG for above post. Very good.

One part Im not clear on what you mean.


You say : "...Naturally 'peaks' and 'flat' situations are the by product of the actual card distribution. More precisely they are in direct relationship of the key cards concentration/dilution parameter, a process completely dependent as once key cards are removed (or conversely live) in the deck patterns will be affected in some way..."
Vulgarly speaking, we can't hope to get a pattern to stop when it's in the 'peak' mood but we can safely assume that a kind of 'flat' situation will happen for quite long...."

re: the blue sentence.
Are you speaking about the area of shoe where (Specific Cards Removed) --ratio to-- (Total Cards Remaining) makes a sudden and often short-duration change??? Often it seems to be about ~~40%--50% penetration into the shoe.
(An example would be where let's say a greater than expected number of 8/9s have already been removed and then suddenly in two consecutive hands six more 8/9s get removed. Thus, immediately making the shoe significantly low on 8/9s  vs Total Remaining Cards).

OR

Are you speaking about something totally different?

Thanks,

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 18, 2022, 10:14:36 PM
Hi KFB!!

IMO most patterns follow an average number of more likely math situations that dynamically change over the course of the actual shoe. Notice I'm not talking about REAL outcomes, just about math occurences.
So, yes, your point is well taken, imo.

Just to make a conclusive and simplified statement, shoes exhibiting strong key card concentrations (so forming long key card dilutions at the remaining segments) are by far the best shoes to play at. This has nothing to share with the appearance of long streaks or long univocal patterns just about 'peaks' and 'flat' situations.

(Actually there are evidences that strong 'balanced' key card distributions will make the player a huge favor, but since those opportunities are not coming out by a decent frequency we simply ignore them).

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 21, 2022, 12:45:33 AM
5) Baccarat is a game of numbers

At gambling games when you provide numbers you look smarter, especially if numbers derive from complicated math formulas where 99.9% of common people won't know a bit about.

On the other end, without numbers we can't estimate whether our method may get a decent chance to win itlr, but for obvious reasons 'the long run' is shorter than the infinite field where math formulas apply.

Simplyfing the subject, either a given method/approach works or it doesn't and we do not need millions of shoes tested to verify this.
And imo the only way to ascertain this is to assess if our method will get more wins than losses that in another way means that wins and losses are restricted within 'ranges' getting lower sd values than expected.

Say we have two possible events A and B (having a nearly 50/50 probability to appear) spreading into finite distinct successions of 75 or so propositions.
We do not know which A or B side will get a constant or volatile edge over the other one, but given the kind of 'coin flip' premise we may infer that A and B patterns will be distributed by a kind of binomial probability that constitutes our 'control group'.
Such control group is opposed to our method oriented to somewhat negating such unbeatable binomial probability (moreover knowing the game is burdened by a constant EV-).

At the end, the more our method 'numbers' deviates from a kind of binomial probability 'numbers', greater will be the probability to think that our method is really successful.

Baccarat literature is based too much (or only) about classical probability not caring a bit about the frequentist approach.
This last one is the only tool we have at our disposal to evaluate 'complex' patterns distribution by 'ranges' (so numbers), patterns that are made first by the actual card distribution and then by math instrinsic features.
 
Putting things into another perspective, single B or P hands (let alone mere Banker advantaged situations) do not mean nothing to us as it's the whole shoe picture that matters.

In fact complex patterns need a way greater amount of hands to get univocal results standing for long as they must fight against a strong asymmetrical production happening for the entire shoe and/or math features belonging to an average key card distribution (a finite and dependent process!)

In a word, complex patterns tend to exhibit manageable and detectable values capable to easily erase and invert to our favor the HE.

And of course complex patterns move around measurable numbers moving around strong limited ranges, the real thing we should be happy to know.

But what's a 'complex' pattern?
 
as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on December 21, 2022, 02:38:54 AM
You wrote:

"Putting things into another perspective, single B or P hands (let alone mere Banker advantaged situations) do not mean nothing to us as it's the whole shoe picture that matters."

AND ALSO:


"And of course complex patterns move around measurable numbers moving around strong limited ranges, the real thing we should be happy to know."

IMO (and strictly my opinion) the first quoted paragraph here particularly whereupon you said the 'whole shoe', but the whole shoe is far too late once presented because it's over.  And as much as we all desire to believe or hope to believe, it doesn't carry over into subsequent shoes.  Our luck might, our energy might, our win streak might, our losing streak might, our clear frame of mind might etc., etc., but not the reality of a Shoe's actual real presentment does not.  Therefore, as I started out saying, I have to throw out there SECTIONS and the ability to condense the 'whole shoe' all the way down to thirds or fourths.  That way you have a chance to wager with it, against it or for whatever it is to return to, etc.

And in the second paragraph, your "complex patterns move around" statement is correct and can be 'caught' within the thirds or fourths (Sections) of a shoe, once again.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on December 21, 2022, 02:59:46 PM
Good thread and posts asym/alrelax

asym in post #733:

"...5) Baccarat is a game of numbers

At gambling games when you provide numbers you look smarter, especially if numbers derive from complicated math formulas where 99.9% of common people won't know a bit about. ..."
    That is funny/very true  :)  :)

AND asym states in same post:

"...On the other end, without numbers we can't estimate whether our method may get a decent chance to win itlr, but for obvious reasons 'the long run' is shorter than the infinite field where math formulas apply.

Simplyfing the subject, either a given method/approach works or it doesn't and we do not need millions of shoes tested to verify this.
And imo the only way to ascertain this is to assess if our method will get more wins than losses that in another way means that wins and losses are restricted within 'ranges' getting lower sd values than expected...."

    The last part of the last sentence is how one wins the ballgame/ where our efforts should be focused.


Continued Success,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 26, 2022, 01:06:19 AM
Thanks Al and KFB for your replies.

@Alrelax: yep, the 'whole' shoe picture is defined at the end of it, yet imo there are costant 'average' probabilities that something will stay or turn into an opposite direction so strong 'educated' guesses must be made upon such 'averages'.
Obviously your 'sections' point of view is of utmost importance.

@KFB: spot on! When we think as baccarat as a game of 'ranges' we can't fail. By any means.

Baccarat is a game of numbers #2

Exhaustive long term observations made on a large live shoes sample let us to think that baccarat patterns move around 'ranges' not corresponding to an infinite 0.5068/0.4932 model, the very thing literature has taught us for years.

Nobody is arguing about the long term B and P probability, just that shoe per shoe certain betting 'ranges' assume more detectable shapes measured by sd values different to a still general probability model.

Technically our WL results put into a graphic will take a leptokurtic distribution, that is a distribution where elements are concentrated around the mean and where the variance is minimal.

Thus as long as our betting scheme moves into this restricted field we can't fear anything 'strongly' bad or 'strongly' good and of course winning and losing processes will be affected too.

Naturally a leptokurtic distribution doesn't favor one side or another, it just remains symmetrically concentrated around the 0 point.
In another words, our betting 'random walk' makes shorter steps than expected and surely crossing several times the 0 point. (We named it a 'limited' random walk)

How to make our betting scheme to form a leptokurtic distribution touching several times the 0 point

1) getting rid of many B/P hands confusing the whole picture;

2) knowing the average general probability to get some 'complex' patterns more likely crossing the 0 point;

3) taking for grant that each class of positive or negative steps must be be equal itlr;

4) comparing the general probability with the actual probability in terms of more likely clusters.

5) evaluating the unrandomness level of every shoe dealt. 


Point #1 was touched many times here.
Only id.i.ots could think to beat the game by betting every hand or most hands dealt.
The very exact players' class casinos are very happy to get at their tables.
Probability such players will get a leptokurtic curve results is zero.

Point #2 is the decisive factor to look for. It's the most serious duty any serious player should be inclined to find out.

Point #3 is very important too.
Positive or negative step classes are surely going to be balanced itlr or more likely partially balanced in the same shoe: this last occurence happens around 70% of the times.
A wonderful 'average' probability to rely upon.

Point #4 is another decisive factor to look for, so i'll make an example.
Along each shoe dealt there's a probability to get an average number of 1-2 patterns and an average lenght going along.
We know that per every shoe dealt the probability NOT to get a 1-2 cluster of any lenght is 0, yet this probability is related to the actual streaks lenght.
Since the shoe is finite, particularly very long streaks put a serious threat about such probability in the sense that long streaks make less probable to get a proper average number of 1-2 clusters.
So even if we're deadly sure that 1-2 will come out clustered at least once per every shoe dealt,  we must know that in very rare occurences singled 1-2 situations may show up even for 5 or 6 steps (Yes, this is a very strong and very very unlikely scenario but it could happen).

Point #5 is probably the factor why we're constantly beating this game (the other option is because we're geniuses deserving a baccarat Nobel prize, lol).
We'll see it in a couple of days.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on December 26, 2022, 04:19:43 AM
Great post AsymBacGuy

I agree with your comments about #2. Also, IMO #4 is correlated with #2.

I also see Ties as often contributing to our decision-making process and "clustering" (In a negative or confusing manner), at least for me.

Continued Success,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 27, 2022, 11:21:16 PM
Thanks KFB!!

Average card distribution

Don't make the mistake to consider baccarat as a game where everything could happen per every shoe dealt; but do not make the more fatal error of thinking that a method could get the best of it at every shoe dealt.

For example, we know that a given amount of rows and columns will be filled per every shoe no matter how weird is the actual card distribution.

Since we are not interested to guess every hand or most hands dealt per shoe, we instead should be inclined to understand what's the actual patterns flow in relationship of the general average findings.
And this is a strict card distribution issue obviously depending upon the possible unrandomness as outliers (strong deviations) are more likely to show up when the unrandomness level is quite high.

Naturally such unrandomness is symmetrical, in the sense that we can hugely benefit from it or giving us harsh times when it doesn't go in our favor.
Most of the times unrandom levels are low or very low, so they do not constitute a sort of 'stop' or 'sky's the limit' situations affecting our strategy, yet itlr it's more likely to get strong deviations when the distribution is unrandom rather than attributing it to normal fluctuations a random model exhibits. In a word unrandom distributions get a slight than expected probability to form clusters. 

Example.

Our targeted complex pattern will come out, on average, 4 times per shoe.
Since we've tested that generally we could get a huge control of its dispersion values, we number the general probabilities of such event coming out (Y) or not (N) at the actual shoe we're playing at:

YYYY
YYYN
YYNY
YYNN
YNYY
YNNY
YNYN
YNNN
NNNN
NNNY
NNYN
NNYY
NYNN
NYYN
NYNY
NYYY

Now we're not interested to hope that Y>N as Y=N, let alone to 'follow' seemingly univocal patterns (e.g. betting Y after YY or N after NN), just to get at least one symbol of each category to show up clustered at some point, obviously knowing that the 'average' 4 apparitions could fail, (it may be 3 or 5 or other).
Thus the position of such complex apparition along the shoe does make a huge impact over our strategy.

The expected probability to get any YY or NN pattern in a 4-betting trial applied to an independent random model is 14/16 (87.5%); naturally the remaining 12.5% YNYN and NYNY symmetrical occurences will proportionally cancel any advantage.
But baccarat is not an independent random model, especially while taking complex events as 'triggers'.
It's like that the 87.5% probability increases to 89% or more. Now we get an advantage.

But another pivotal effect of baccarat distributions is that complex events show itlr a minor than expected propensity to produce YYYY and NNNN patterns so increasing the apparition of the other more likely 12 patterns not forming an 'alternating' process (YNYN and NYNY).

Therefore less likely events showing up are NNNN, YYYY, YNYN and NYNY.

Remember again that we're not talking about B and P hands but about 'complex' events.
So in any instance B or P do correspond to Y or N.

The 4 average event apparition per shoe is just an example.
There are infinite 'complex' patterns to look for. I've chosen a decent average event's rate, a kind of 5.33% trigger considering 75 resolved hands per shoe.

The important thing to know, imo, is to never chase a situation to be clustered unless deriving from some kind of a 'complexity'.
Complexity tends to get rid of short term variance (platykurtic distribution), the actual distribution casinos make a lot of money from.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on December 29, 2022, 03:21:13 PM
Great post AsymBacGuy and perfectly stated:

"But baccarat is not an independent random model, especially while taking complex events as 'triggers'."

"There are infinite 'complex' patterns to look for."

An addendum thought to your fine post. What many players may think is a simple event is in reality a "Complex" event. Meaning many things have to line up for it to present.


Continued Success,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 01, 2023, 10:32:13 PM
What many players may think is a simple event is in reality a "Complex" event. Meaning many things have to line up for it to present.

+1 KFB!!

We humans are shaped to look for patterns and ancestors looked for patterns coming out by 'clumps'.

More interestingly, a lot of studies proved our inability to detect random and unrandom patterns, in the sense that most subjects wrongly assigned the proper 'random' and 'unrandom' feature at the tasks examined.
(See Muller, 2001) for example.

So it's not surprising that most baccarat players like to detect patterns knowing or thinking the distribution to be random (so unbeatable) whereas on the contrary manufactured unrandom patterns are considered as 'undetectable' for possibly showing 'too low' concentrated clumps to take advantage from.
That's why the 'complexity' factor will be one of the keys helping us to solve the puzzle as acting both at random and unrandom shuffled shoes.

Actually perfect randomly shuffled shoes do not exist or at least the 'random' feature cannot be proportionally distributed along a 416 cards shoe.
This is a different statement than accepting a sure dependence of the results that solely taken cannot lead to nowhere.

Thus in the real world some (or many) unrandom segments will happen per every shoe dealt, so the complexity parameter might take a different role whether applied to a random model or to a unrandom model, in the sense that the previous patterns and the number of hands dealt so far constitute a decisive parameter to look for.


More on that later.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 02, 2023, 03:36:01 AM
As long as an asymmetrical game provides not perfect random but dependent and finite successions we can't lose

Providing we can bet whenever we wish.

This statement may be set in stone by a 100% accuracy.

Besides the key assumptions made by R. Von Mises on randomness and M. v. Smoluchoswki studies we took decisive hints from, a shuffled deck makes more probable than not and at various degrees some events than others.
Diaconis and Bloom (and others) made extensive works on the subject, obviously not specifically considering baccarat.

Shuffle thoroughly a single deck of cards and itlr you'll get precise values of some events happening (for example red/black card apparition in streaks or 'chops'). By increasing the number of decks employed, such features will approximate but tending to proportionally deviate in relationship of the number of decks utilized (for the impact of variance).

It's obvious that at baccarat red or black cards distribution doesn't matter, so the process is more complicated to be grasped and naturally it should be assessed toward the 'average' key card concentration/dilution.

Since we do know that an average number of rows and columns will be formed, we may infer that at some points such key card distribution will make more probable some events than others.

Fortunately no need to track cards, average patterns and other tools will make the job for us.

See you in a couple of days.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 04, 2023, 12:19:06 AM
See you next week

as.

   
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 09, 2023, 03:38:06 AM
Best baccarat player in the world (again)

The best bac player in the world is one capable to be ahead after 7-10 shoes played, meaning that in the vast majority of the times the 7-10 shoes probability range will happen by ascertained values not likely reaching outliers that of course could be astoundingly good or terribly bad.
Therefore under normal situations and providing a fair number of hands bet per shoe, recreational players and 'I'm the new genius in town' players will get a very slim probability to be ahead after such 10 shoes sample.

As sayed many times here, progressive plans do not solve such a problem, they just dilute it.
So without any doubt, a flat betting scheme or a very slow multilayered wagering (as brilliantly proposed by KFB in his section) is the answer to know if we're really doing good or just getting a fluke.

No room to false illusions.

After a 10 shoe sample, in the vast majority of the times we must be ahead of something by flat betting (or any strategy very close to it).
If not we're fooling ourselves.

This statement is so true that even by betting just 5-6 hands per shoe and after a 10 shoe sample, probability to be eventually ahead will be strongly shifted toward the negative territory. And by percentages well surpassing the math negative edge.

If this weren't true, baccarat wouldn't exist.
Transforming the issue, there are times when we should follow average clustered situations and other times where the 'clustering effect' on average is less likely to happen.

Lesser the number of bets we'll make per shoe, higher will be our probability of success.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 11, 2023, 12:47:55 AM
A card counting system

Card counting doesn't work at baccarat, right?
Not necessarily.

Some time ago I've picked up this interesting method involving a card counting technique along with simple math features that gave us some valuable hints. After innumerable tests, we've modified it in such a way:

9 = +12
8 = +10
7 = +7
6 = +5
5 = +8
4 = +8
3 = +2.5
2 = +2.5
A = +1
10s and Paints = 0

Differently to any other card counting method where the sum is 0, here card values only add up giving some totals.
Our range of interest considers a cutoff point after 2/3 of hands are dealt (ties included of course).

Thus we assume that 50 hands dealt are a fair way to take such 2/3 percentage trigger.

Rules

1) We'll consider to bet only whether after 50 hands dealt the total sum is restricted within the 952-1180 range.

2) In the previous 50 hands shoe sample, Player results had to come out more by even winning points than odd winning points.
In the relatively unlikely situation that P even winning points = P odd winning points, we may still consider to bet if the total sum approaches the low end of the 952-1180 range (average point is 1066)

3) The initial burnt card must be counted.

4) For obvious reasons, lower the initial burnt card is more reliable will be our counting.

Naturally it's a wise move not to play at those casinos which like to cut down from the play many cards, anyway as long as less than one deck is unplayable we're doing good.

What to bet if all of the above conditions are fulfilled.

In the remaining 25 or so hands, there's a substantial math propensity to get Banker side not forming heavy negative outliers, meaning that at this 25 hands 'conditioned' sample Banker side will get a fair number of winning hands over the possible total outcomes.

Notice that this doesn't mean the Banker will get more winning hands than losing hands, just that sd values will be way more restricted than expected.

This is the only exception to step away from a strict flat betting scheme as now we have reasons to adopt a kind of progressive plan (multilayered multiple step schemes).

Disadvantages of such a system

1) Shoes fulfilling all the above parameters are rare to happen.

Even if the maximum limit of total sum range stays around an average value, best opportunities come out at the lower end of such range and they are quite unlikely to happen. 

Think that at baccarat more odd points than even points are made and we need a sort of inversion distribution to show up at Player side.

2) Possible numerous ties happening at this 25 hands segment could dilute a favourable conditional probability up to a point where we may find ourselves to be stuck without the room to get a fair number of winning hands.
We've found out that this is the very threat of such a system.

3) The indispensable tool to observe the shoe right at the start of it.


An opposite line of thought could orient us to think that whenever such conditions aren't fulfilled (it happens on the majority of the times) Player side will be more likely to get the same opposite propensity but our tests have clearly shown that this kind of reasonment is untrue.
Mostly for the odd/even points math nature of bac outcomes.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on January 11, 2023, 05:10:31 AM
Hmmmm Kinda interesting as.
Thanks for your work on this/for sharing.

Alot to digest so I will need to review and read again.

At first glance I like the scaled score for the ease in keeping running tabs.

Your statement:

"What to bet if all of the above conditions are fulfilled.

In the remaining 25 or so hands, there's a substantial math propensity to get Banker side not forming heavy negative outliers, meaning that at this 25 hands 'conditioned' sample Banker side will get a fair number of winning hands over the possible total outcomes."

Q: Is there any consideration given if say P has also built a lead in that front 50 decisions? Maybe have a cutoff of say +6 or +8 net Wins or something similar (e.g., 28-22 or 29-21,..etc)??
I think your hypothesis would have additional merit if that was indeed the case.

More later & thx again AsymBacGuy



Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 15, 2023, 10:06:33 PM
Hi KFB and thanks for your reply.

Original authors of such a system investigated deeply the game by a strict mathematical approach, they didn't mention the previous BP gap other than by the rules I've written here.
So I do not know if your idea could be implemented in the system.
Only a program could solve the issue.

What I could provide is this:

The largest majority of winning points at either side are included within the 9-4 final points.
At Banker side this probability is 73.1% vs a Player's 70.8%.
Considering this final points range, Player odd and even final points are perfectly symmetrical in their probability to happen whereas at Banker side odd points amount to a 37.2% percentage and even points to a 35.9% probability.

Obviously this odd/even final points range must someway invert at the other less likely winning points range, that is points 3, 2 and 1.
Now Banker side will get a 19.4% share and Player a 21% share.

Naturally a 0 final point can't win, anyway this possibility comes out 7.5% of the times at Banker side and 8.2% at Player side.

Not suprisingly and taking into account both sides the highest final points gap shows up at 5 point (3% propensity for Banker side) and at 4 point (2.4% propensity for Player side), the actual situations where baccarat rules advantaging Banker will work most.

In addition, Banker final odd points account for a 37.2% probability vs a final even points of 35.9%.

After all it's not a bad idea to play toward math percentages under conditonal probabilities happened.  ;)

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 15, 2023, 10:10:03 PM
Notice to not make confusion between final points probability and actual final winning probability.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 23, 2023, 03:55:33 AM
Baccarat is a game of multiple asymmetrical steps

It's almost certain that baccarat may only be beaten by exploiting its innumerable asymmetrical steps acting per every shoe dealt, steps that by definition cannot be contained in a univocal cut and dried strategy.

There are infinite asym steps to take care of, and each of them must be studied by testing a large shoe sample then collecting more informations than we can.

Here's a brief list of such asym steps. (Obviously I get rid of the Banker math propensity)

1) Number and distribution of naturals

Naturals come out very often so that if an hypothetical naturals side bet would give the house a 15% or so edge we could easily destroy any casino in the universe.
And I'm not talking about card counting 8s and 9s, just considering an average distribution.
For that matter casinos could even cut off from the play two or 2,5 decks and nothing will change for us.
Unfortunately such side bet doesn't exist.

Anyway we know that naturals probability is symmetrically placed in theory but actually distributed by 'more likely' asymmetrical ranges we should consider before choosing the side to bet.
We can't catch when and where a natural spot will fall at, we do know that naturals move around more likely ranges depending upon the segment of the shoe considered.
One sided naturals probability is more than double of the asymmetrical math strenght favoring Banker, so just to simplify a lot the issue whenever we'd think a natural will come out soon we're way better to wager Player for some (few) consecutive hands than betting Banker by taking advantage of the math propensity to win.
A natural coming out at P side is a huge win whereas a natural coming out at B side is a sure long term loss.     

2) The highest two-card initial point is strongly favorite to win the final hand.

Almost every bac player do not give a cottontail rabbitsh.it about how this parameter went along the shoe dealt. (Let alone in their testings if they did any). They are interested about the win/lose destiny of the hand, bet or observed.

In reality such parameter is essential toward the final hand destiny and it moves around more likely ranges.
Sayed in another way, as long as our bets have caught more two-initial higher points than expected, the final hand destiny shouldn't bother us. And obviously I'm not referring about naturals and standing points, just about all other hands that must draw one or two cards.

3) Third card(s) nature distribution

This is a more intricate issue as many times it intervenes at both strong unfavorite or favorite situations.
It's undoubtedly sure that Player predominant shoes benefit a lot from the third card impact, way more than what third cards will help the Banker side.
In fact Banker side more often than not doesn't want to draw a third card unless it has a 0, 1 or 2 initial point.

I mean that it's more difficult to track the third card actual impact range than the above mentioned factors without registering the real outcomes, so we might simplify the problem by assigning a general positive value only at cards different than 0, 1, 2 or 3.
8s and 9s are generally bad cards for the Player but they could transform a very bad situation into a wonderful one.

Anyway the third cards impact follow some more likely ranges, surpassed whom we're not interested to 'guess' anything unless we want to take the 'sky's the limit' approach thus considering 'potential' probabilities as 'virtual' probabilities but with no guarantee to succeed.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on January 23, 2023, 07:02:19 AM
The results that you experience at the table will not and cannot follow any sort of governed or stable distribution of presentments or results from the shoe.  Because the possibilities as we already established are far too great to narrow down to a certain section of 80 hands or a cumulative total of 160 or 320 or 640 or 5,000 hands, and so on, that will produce what we all are seeking, winning hands.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 23, 2023, 07:43:18 PM
The important thing is leaving the casino with more money in our pockets.  ^-^

as.

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 25, 2023, 12:57:27 AM
I'm astonished to see that people keep thinking that baccarat is beatable by progressive bettings of any kind.

Without a verified edge progressive bettings don't work and can't work, actually they constitute a sure detriment of any strategy. (Variance is greater, vig impact is greater, maybe comps are the only reason to adopt this silly line). 

About the edge.

A possible edge can only come out after having verified it at large datasets and by adopting the same betting amount.

If we'd think that after betting 1, future 2 or 3 or 1.1 or whatever bets involve a better EV we are completely falling into the worst gambler's fallacy territory.

The EV of any method, strategy, system or approach remains the same whether we bet $1 or $200.000 per hand. And per every intermediate category of such a range.

Humans can't read randomness and without the help of math and statistics can't read unrandomness either.
Why?
As the human brain is somewhat biased about 'overalternating' and 'overclustering' patterns where some event or classes of events are mistakenly taken as 'more likely' or 'less likely'.

So we're sure as hell that 'subjective' methods don't make winners but just deluded people.

Most of the times anytime we put a 'subjective' element in our strategy we are just gambling. And gambling is a EV- move.

Notice that gambling forums and internet videos abound of wonderful winning shoes without mentioning or presenting the specular harsh losing counterpart, just in case labeled as a rare 'unlucky' situation that may happen.

Actual card distributions might be relatively insensitive to math and statistical long term findings but they do are to subjective methods in the same way.

To measure a possible winning strategy

Again our old betting random walk friend will help us to find out whether we're doing good or just for a transitory luck's (short term positive variance) impact.

Per every shoe dealt we assume to start at a 0 point, left side is the negative territory and right side is the positive one. Each bet won makes a step toward the right and vice versa for a losing bet.
Alrelax is completely right about this: every shoe is a world apart in the sense that previous outcomes cannot noticeably affect in any way the next shoe.

Obviously such random walk must take into account the ROI, otherwise a simple steady Banker wagering will approach more and more the far end of the right side. 

What is important is that positive steps must be considered under the 'coin flip' multilevel probability classes, what we name as a 'limited random walk'.
For simplicity and according to my unb plans, we consider just two back to back betting spots (that is a way different thing than betting all of the time two consecutive hands). 

Assuming for simplicity a perfect 0.50% winning/losing probability, odds to get a two unidirectional step at either side are 0.25%, so most of the remaining times per every two-bet wagered (for real or fictionally) we'll get a kind of 'balancement' movement where W=L or L=W.
In other words our betting random walk doesn't sensibly move toward any side.

This movement do apply to every two opposite events fighting and the least battle we should be interested at is the B/P distribution as affected by too much volatility.

So 'complex' opposite events taken under the two wagers line mostly move around a 0.75% probability to show up, that is a kind of 'neutral' situation producing the least number of steps toward any side.

As long as the 0.75% or so probability shows up, we can't lose serious money, maybe just the vig when applicable (actually a portion of winning hands will benefit from the B propensity).
The problem remains about what to do when the 0.25% unidirectional probability will come out.

The answer is about the more likely 'clustered-clustering' values happening at such less likely event.

Say A event will fight vs B event.
Most of the times (75%) AB and BA two-step situations will prevail over the AA and BB patterns (25% each).

After a AA or BB pattern had shown up, next event will form either another univocal AA or BB pattern or a more likely AB or BA event.
Let's classify the first AA or BB pattern as 1, AAAA and BBBB patterns as 2 and so on. 

Notice that differently than a simple B/P patterns distribution, many 'complex' A/B patterns involve a way lesser variance than B/P outcomes as more hands are needed to form a A or B pattern.

Therefore BB and PP patterns tend to distribute themselves by a stronger variance than AA/BB patterns.

Moreover BBBB or PPPP patterns (two steps deviating from a more likely albeit proportional course) are slight more likely to show up than the same AAAA and BBBB counterpart and this last feature is more and more predominant whenever we take into account several steps of such kind.
Of course and as already sayed, single shoe productions are finite so anytime a more likely value or class of values are surpassed, we better consider the room left to get the more likely events coming out.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 25, 2023, 01:31:59 AM
For some reasons I'm more inclined to trust people betting serious money at bac tables and undoubtedly Alrelax and KFB belong to this category.

BTW, let me know if any long term member of this site would be interested to get a total free RFB accomodation in a couple of high end Vegas premises or in Montecarlo SBM properties and I will arrange it in a millisecond.

as.

 

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on January 25, 2023, 02:25:52 AM
This year, summertime, we will do Vegas.

I will bring $50k for my bankroll.

I still have a great MGM brand host whom can comp any MGM property for me/us.  I have some insight with some other brands still, some hosts of mine from pre-2017 are gone and others switched properties/brands.

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 25, 2023, 03:51:04 AM
You are the best Al! :thumbsup:

Let's prepare in advance that summertime session hoping KFB will join us!

First dinner it's up on me, my favorites are:

Picasso or Joel Robuchon (French)

Il Fornaio or Canaletto (Italian)

Wing Lei (Asian)

Xavier (Mexican)

Sushi Yiroyoshi (Sushi)

What about your preferites?

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on January 25, 2023, 04:56:42 AM
Golden Steer Steakhouse (old school and over the top) (free standing and not casino related) https://www.goldensteerlasvegas.com/

Peppermill (another freestanding and not casino related)
https://www.peppermilllasvegas.com/

Both Golden Steer and Peppermill up by the Wynn.

Spring Mountain Road area, street north side of Treasure Island and west of i15 interstate.  Several places.  Used to always go to one of the local SE Asian restaurants and it was open 24 hours a day.  I posted numerous pictures of the place and food there on the forum a few years ago.  There are a few other real cool places outside the casinos on Spring Mountain Road as well.

888 Korean BBQ
https://www.yelp.com/biz/888-korean-bbq-las-vegas-2.
Place we cook at our table.  Reminds me of the places in Manhattan around 32nd Street off Broadway.  Kind of place we do a 3-4 hour dinner. 

Picasso and Prime @ The Bellagio

Jasmine (Always Always eat there) @ The Bellagio

Old Homestead @ Ceasers Palace

PHO @ Treasure Island

Andiamo Steakhouse @ The D  (yeah yeah, it's downtown but it's fun, noisy and they have 2 bac tables up on an elevated stage like side of the main floor.  Drink some, play Macau style and rip and tear up the cards, just act like fools while winning.  The D is super noisy like I said.  Not the steakhouse, lol. And the steakhouse is suburb!).

There are others, those are just some of the favorites.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on January 26, 2023, 05:36:46 AM
Hi Asymbacguy

In your post #751 above:

"Of course and as already sayed, single shoe productions are finite so anytime a more likely value or class of values are surpassed, we better consider the room left to get the more likely events coming out...."

I agree and like how you worded this. My personal view is that no matter what we choose to track in a single shoe it is finite and should be treated as always approaching a limit.

For example, let say we are charting or tracking "n": P/B, 2/2s, 1/2s,1/3s,the 8 card,...etc  Fill In The Blank, and as soon as "n" occurs for the first time, there are now only "n-1" remaining in that shoe.

We don't know exactly (though the laws of probability help guide us), what we do know is there is now one less and we just missed number one. Obviously, we still don't know exactly how many will present due to cut and residual cards at the end.
Yes, and this could be that one shoe where an extreme number for a specific multi-card pattern far greater than expectation presents. However, we do know there is now only "n-1" of that just-presented outcome available.
Plus, other patterns with similar-probability or greater-probability, that have NOT had one "n" removed yet, are still just as determined to present at >=their expected levels with less distance now available.

From the cut card onward every card, suite, pattern,  starts becoming n-1,n-2, ...etc as we cycle through the shoe.


Continued Success,



Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 29, 2023, 09:20:57 PM
Al: yep Golden Steer at West Sahara (close to the defunct Lucky Dragon casino) is a classic for steakhouse lovers.

I'm curious about 888 Korean BBQ....

What about your preferred list of seafood restaurants?

@KFB.
Nice simple way of classifiying what we should expect and what we actually see at the shoe we're playing at.
I'll be back on this later.

as.
 



Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 30, 2023, 03:16:29 AM
Human mind, symmetry and edge

Human mind is somewhat 'biased' by constantly looking for simmetry. Several studies have shown that when subjects are instructed to write down 'random' successions applied to a binomial probability, a sure undeniable 'overalternating' feature affects the results.
More interestingly is that real random objective successions are perceived by subjects 'less random' whereas unrandom successions are mostly considered as 'randomly' formed.

At baccarat the vast majority of people bet along those 'simmetrical' lines (widely intended), at the same time privileging just one kind of asymmetry, that is the 'long' streaks possibility.

Then there are 'foolproof' systems that give the subjective 'guessing' a 0 impact as every outcome  must fall into well restricted ranges.
Those worthless systems are mostly based around several kind of gamblers fallacies that many times are fallaciously(!) overtaken by the best short term move anyone could think of: progressive betting.
Nonetheless objective flat bet findings alone cannot lead to any EV+ with one billion of accuracy.
 
Therefore and simplyfing a lot, a 100% subjective way of considering things is EV-, as well as it's EV- a strict objective system stubbornly looking for precise triggers.
So the 'truth' must be in the middle. At least according to the money we've collected over the years at bac tables.

At baccarat the possible player's edge is a dynamical issue, surely defined after having measured long term flat betting results.

No matter the fkng strategy we are going to utilize, either we'll catch more W spots than L spots (after vig impact) or we are destined to fail.

Mathematically there's no way to 'guess' right by inserting a kind of 'subjective' sole element in our strategy whether bac successions are really random.
The same if bac successions are kind of unrandom.

On the other end, 'obiective' findings that tend to mix many different baccarat productions (card distributions) are sensitive to huge volatility that only in the long term will approach the expected values.

Subjective and objective strategies are two different categories of random walks following the same math laws, sometimes converging into the same betting line and other times negating it.
And obviously there are more likely positive or negative steps converging at a same betting line  than events forming long series of 'outliers' that could be 'heaven' or 'hell'.

For casinos the only tools that matter are the math edge and the several gamblers fallacies affecting almost every player. 
Educated players can overcome such factors.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 06, 2023, 02:36:20 AM
While playing baccarat is important to adopt an asymmetrical educated thought

An average strong asymmetrical card distribution acting at a constant slight asymmetrical game needs some brain adjustments to get the best of the game.

It's the key to win itlr.

We'll see it in a couple of days.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on February 08, 2023, 03:25:58 AM
Asymbacguy:

"Human mind is somewhat 'biased' by constantly looking for simmetry. Several studies have shown that when subjects are instructed to write down 'random' successions applied to a binomial probability, a sure undeniable 'overalternating' feature affects the results.
More interestingly is that real random objective successions are perceived by subjects 'less random' whereas unrandom successions are mostly considered as 'randomly' formed."

that's interesting. Along the same topic. I've seen studies that suggested slot players can detect a difference >=2% between payouts. For example, after playing multiple machines the player could correctly select the machine that paid more or less if that (more or less amount was >=2%).

So when we hear an avid slot player say: I don't play at XYZ casino because their slots are tight. Maybe they are indeed correct.

Cheers,



Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 13, 2023, 03:15:00 AM
Nice point KFB!
After all the longer one observes what really comes out greater should be the probability to catch the 'boundaries' of some results. And slot players look at many many results.

Back to the topic.

There are two sure ways to lose a lot of money at baccarat tables:

1) Playing stubbornly to get a symmetry whenever a kind of 'asymmetry' is perceived by us;

2) Hoping that a kind of asymmetry works infinitely or per every new pattern coming out.

Most bac players do know the danger of adopting the #1 strategy so they are enticed to work on the approach #2. Unfortunately even this strategy can't win itlr as supposedly favourable asymmetrical patterns need valuable 'cutoff' points that cannot be extracted other than by the constant evaluation of what really happens with what is supposed to happen.

Now let's take the opposite casinos' thought:

These stup.i.d donators hope to get asymmetrical patterns for long but they can't as things will change; just in case our math edge will progressively work at our side so more bets they'll make higher will be our profits.
Moreover we can rely about the sure indeniable fkng bighorns.h.it publicized everywhere that baccarat is just a MM game.

Let's summarize casinos' hopes:

a) players deal with a EV- game;

b) players think to beat the game by a biased production forming more asymmetrical patterns than symmetrical ones;

c) players raise their bets by subjective feelings or hopes or thinking that a dry MM approach will get the best of the game;

d) players want to win huge or at least breaking even per each session.

Whereas we can't do nothing about the a) point, we may do a lot about the remaining three points:

b) Asymmetrical spots surely come out by more likely 'steps', yet the asymmetrical world is constantly mixed by a kind of symmetrical one and even this is affected by the same more likely steps. In some way many symmetrical spots will form an asymmetrical pattern.

c) Raising the bets without having ascertained a flat betting advantage is the sure recipe for the disaster. Yes, in the shortest terms a MM could sound as a viable strategy to beat the game but it isn't by one trillion of accuracy itlr.

d) In the vast majority of the times, 'Winning huge' per every session played is the perfect negation of a possible player's advantage as at baccarat we can't rely about a math edge and of course things change a lot along the course of a restrict amount of shoes.
Even worse is the 'urge' to quit the session as a 'break even' player: despite of knowing we'll win an average amount of bets per shoe, we can't precisely estimate how things will come out, the important stuff to rely upon is that our profit line will be more and more ascending.

Actually and when in doubt, there's a fifth point to consider that is the several distinct 'human' random walks formed by the other players seated at our table.
Even those will follow 'more likely' steps, especially whenever the shoe isn't so polarized to entice a univocal more probable betting line (long streaks or chops, long homogeneous patterns, etc).
This issue albeit sounding as strongly unscientific has some practical merit as being directly related to the subjective bias affecting humans while facing binomial productions.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on February 13, 2023, 03:35:27 AM
In reference to your above post.  In my words.

The Way We Think (Especially at the Baccarat Table!)

"It will happen"--"It has to happen".  Those are two of the most frequent sayings a player will here.  And at times, yes they both do and yet at other times, never.  Some might not say, never.  They explain it as, "then you are grasping, no evidence, just wishful thinking, etc.

Large wins, then nothing.  Like WOW!  Complete fizzle out, then turns into a demand to prove something to no one except myself, that I can win again or more.  Always the same, never changes.  Years and years of playing, different properties, different states and does not matter whether Asian, White or Latino, same same, does not change.

Here is another one, "Monkey See Monkey Do", the list can go on and on and on.  Okay, let us get going on the purpose of writing this now. 

I was coming into work this morning.  I was exiting a gas station/c-store parking lot onto a side street.  I wanted to make a quick left and go about 40 feet to a main east-west through-fare and hang a right turn.  However, this guy has to come up and literally block my exit and he had to wait for the car in front of him to get a break in traffic to turn left.  Of course he could not have left me room to go across and out, he had to block the way and stop smack in front of me instead of 15 or 20 feet before creeping up to the car stopped in front of him anyway.  What was he thinking, what was his perception, closer to the other car waiting and he would go faster?  Too much trouble to stop, let me out and then creep up to just wait anyway?  There had to be a logical explanation rather than, "I am just a jerk and I shall block the drive so this guy cannot get out and has to wait because I have to wait"?  Maybe, but I do doubt it.  I think it had to do more with perception, initial thought, etc., than the latter. 

One more, 'My Cousin Vinny', yes the movie, I love it.  Anyway, remember towards the beginning when Vinny was in court at the arraignment of the two kids and he did not understand the procedure for saying Guilty or Not Guilty?  Well, here is what happened:

Judge Chamberlain Haller: Mr. Gambini, the next words out of your mouth better be "guilty" or "not guilty." I don't want to hear commentary, argument, or opinion. I don't want to hear any facts or evidence. If I hear anything other than "guilty" or "not guilty", you'll be in contempt. I don't even want to hear you clear your throat to speak. Now, how do your clients plead?

Vinny Gambini: [intimidated, but the words go right past him] I think I get the point.

Judge Chamberlain Haller: No, I don't think you do. Now you're officially in contempt of court! Would you like to say something else and go for two counts of contempt of court?

Vinny Gambini: Not guilty.

Judge Chamberlain Haller: Thank you. Not guilty plea has been entered for the record. Probable cause hearing will begin tomorrow at noon. Bail for both defendants will be set at $200,000. Oh and bailiff, take Mr. Gambini into custody with them... and set his bail at $200 for one count of contempt of court.

Okay, Vinny had a different perception of what me and possibly you heard the judge say.  That is exactly what I am referring to, each one of our thought process, interpretations and perceptions might not be the same.  Well, the same thing happens at the baccarat table based upon each one of our past experiences, plateaus and other factors that are different for you, me and others. 

          *****EXPERIENCE--PERCEPTION--THOUGHT PROCESS*****

Experience, Perceptions and Thought Processes.  A lot in those three words, believe me!  Perception is probably the largest and the most confusing to each of us at the baccarat tables.  In fact, huge in baccarat as players tend to place wagers on what they think that they interpret will be coming up for one reason or another.  How the player thinks and reacts will equal, interpretation of the information the player observed.  As well, the past experiences, good or bad of that player.  Past runs witnessed, quantities of runs, infrequency of runs or chop-chop/alternating lengths, 1's-2's and 3's, 1's and 3's, doubles, balanced shoes, imbalanced shoes and lots more.  Lots and lots more.  If the player has not experienced certain things, then he does not know what might come out and when he starts, he will certainly be in the dark as to its formation reality and what could happen.  Please, do not misunderstand the aforesaid sentence for prediction or anything of the like.  With a reasonable player, with common sense and a player's mind, that is conscious of reality rather than wishful thinking and dreaming, prediction is not relied upon in the typical sense.

If the player has past experience then the player has good perception as to what very well could come about.  So, I am not saying old-timers that played this game for 30-40 or 50 years have a better shot at it then a fresh newbie does without deducing down how much experience, perception and thought process is used in a skillful way, rather than prediction wishful thinking and dreaming, based upon a written advisement someone created and sold on the internet entitled something like, "how to win at baccarat".

I am saying experience is huge along with an open frame-of-mind, the ability to interpret your perceptions within a clear thought process and the ability to pounce-on-it or stop playing and book a win.  That is why so many newbies seem to be the real deal and then a ? or ? shoe later are fizzling out with giving back all the win money followed by an aggressive attempt to recapture the win just lost, they have no ideas whatsoever how they won what they just lost in the first place.

3 Kinds of Perceptions will generally make-up the players thought process based upon his experience.

False Perception.  An erroneous perception of reality in baccarat.  Just a self-inflicted vision of concept and belief by the player.  The player will convince himself and thus be completely deceived by a false perception and subscription to his current wagering selections based solely on his past experiences or what others are mumbling and telling him to do.  The player will always rationalize out what seems to be fantastic and successful but the false perception will soon surface and cost him lots of money.  When he wins using this, it just fuels the soon to erupt fire that much greater.

Temporary Perception.  The player is attempting to calm his lust to win, usually after a period of false perceptions, just fizzled out and cost him a large amount of his win or buy-in capital he had.  Since perception is extremely hard to actually define and harder to actually understand by most people, the temporary perception is more of a fleeting, some right and almost on track type of result for the player which could send the player into larger wins or aggressive losses.  REALIZE WHAT THE DIFFERENCE IS AND HOW IT HAPPENS!

Self-Correcting Perception.  The hardest to explain but here goes.  Almost elementary psych but one can very well relate to, self-correcting perception to learning.  How the younger school kids, say elementary school aged and how they are easier to convince and change their mind set then middle school aged and how middle school aged kids are easier to convince and change their minds than high school kids and/or adults would be.  But self-correcting perception, within baccarat is the player catching himself following others especially when they are wrong in their bet placement processes.  The player realizes he was drifting and not paying attention or at least he blames that as his excuse for following others and not paying attention, etc.  It would also cover the player's ability to correct himself with reverting himself back to the basics such as, remaining conscious of his plateaus, past experiences, capital, bet selection methods, duration of playing time, variances and win holding, etc., etc. 

In closing, if you think everything is 'cut and dried' with a simple bet selection/bet placement method and what you will walk away with or place as a stop-loss, it is not that simple.  Although it might be for those that have a one-side one-vision playing style, but for those players that are more successful, they realize that there is no easy definitive 'cut and dried' protocol of wagering, stop loss and win stop amounts. The latter has absolutely found the positive and tangible effects of being conscious and employing other factors and events into their basics of wagering, cashing out and playing time.     
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 15, 2023, 02:51:55 AM
Very good post indeed.

Best part imo is this:

If the player has past experience then the player has good perception as to what very well could come about.  So, I am not saying old-timers that played this game for 30-40 or 50 years have a better shot at it then a fresh newbie does without deducing down how much experience, perception and thought process is used in a skillful way, rather than prediction wishful thinking and dreaming, based upon a written advisement someone created and sold on the internet entitled something like, "how to win at baccarat".

Such statement is so true that whenever we find ourselves losing after a couple of shoes it's because we did something wrong, no matter how things went.
Mainly because we had bet too many hands.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on February 15, 2023, 03:40:23 AM
We are all different at the table, the highest majority of the times.  That doesn't mean we both, or me and another, can't get to the same exact decision many times.  But it is really the peripheral thoughts and beliefs that will excel us into further and larger wins, knowing how to take wins and allocate percentages for hold or continuance, time to play-time to stop, etc., and so on.

There is a heck of a lot more than wagering and it's selection.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 20, 2023, 03:38:24 AM
Situations when Player is the best bet to make

1) 'Lucky 6' tables (here any Banker 6 winning point is payed half the bet, so the HE on B bets is 1.46% vs 1.24% at P bets);

2) There is a shortage of naturals related to the average naturals ratio at commission games;

3) Asymmetrical hands actual number related to the average ratio;

4) Asymmetrical hands destiny over the real results;

5) Patterns evaluation on the shoe we're playing at.


1) At Lucky 6 tables and besides of card counting the L6 side bet, best bet to make is Player.
Actually whenever there's a strong shortage of naturals, even betting Banker side could be a sensibile option as there's no commission involved.

2) Naturals have the same probability to appear but at commission games they are asymmetrically payed (1:1 at P side, 0.95:1 at B side).
So whenever we think a natural should come out shortly we have reasons to bet Player and not Banker.
In fact whenever a natural point comes out, our EV at P bets is 0 whereas it's -2.5% at B bets.

3) Asymmetrical hands, those really endorsing a math force at B bets do not come out around the corner. We'll expect them by an average 1/11.62 ratio. So about 10.62 times out of 11.62 we'll play a perfect coin flip game where no side is particularly favored over the opposite.

Obviously and taking the Banker counterpart thought, we have only two ways to get the best of it by always wagering Banker: a) catching above than average asym hands gaps or b) hoping that the shoe we're playing at is richer than expected of such asym hands.

But we need to be a lot more confident (so guessing, that is hoping to be lucky) about the
b) point than the a) point as the latter is more defined by 'more probable' spots.

For example, we have reasons to think that after an asym hand had shown up, a way more symmetrical  spot comes around and such sym hand will be way more clustered than singled.
 
Bac players are too much focused about the real destiny of the hand than about the 'quality' of the hand.
Thus any Player bet not crossing an asym hand is at least an EV=0 proposition, so not conceding any HE.
Conversely any Banker bet NOT crossing through an asym hand is a sure long term ROI (return on investment) loser.

4) Asym hands come out by finite values, it may easily happen that at an asym hand will make the Player to win (for example think when P has 4 and B 5 and the third card is a 2 or a 3, etc). So in this instance we may consider such asym hand as a 'wasted' opportunity to make B more probable to win. And on average it takes quite of space to make another asym hand to come out.

5) Strong polarized shoes, albeit being very rare, tend to remain slightly more polarized than balanced until the end and giving a fk about expected percentages (besides 'naturals' happenings).

Eventually and by assigning a proper value to the above factors, we could build up a 'Player probability score' where we should be inclined to bet or not the Player side. Not necessarily meaning that when such score is negative Banker side will be more probable to happen as the strenght favoring it more often than not is not sufficient to erase and invert the HE.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 22, 2023, 03:16:12 AM
Coin flip random walk and baccarat random walks

Flip carefully several times a coin and try to guess which side will win.
Itlr you are supposed to break even but at the same time by increasing the number of tosses you'll find yourselves either into the positive field or into the negative one for long (very long) and obviously such probability is 50/50.
Now say that each win is decurted by 1% so when you bet 100 you are payed 99 and when you lose you lose 100.
There is no way that after a large amount of trials you'll be in the positive field even if you are the new genius in town.

Casinos offer baccarat tables for this very reason: as long as we're paying 99 for 100 (or because the probability is somewhat shifted between the two sides) itlr everyone will be in the negative field. Additionally and just in case casinos have other tools at their disposal ('infinite' bankrolls, maximum betting limits, taking advantage of the many gamblers fallacies, etc).

Thus if we are not able to shift the results in our favor at a fair coin flip proposition (other than by chance) and knowing we surely can't win if the coin flip is burdened by 1%, why the hell are we playing baccarat?

To answer this question and as long as we'd think to be smarter than the 'house', we are forced to  think just about two things:

a) baccarat productions could be not perfect randomly offered;

b) baccarat productions are affected by a kind of 'dependence' as a finite number of cards is employed to deal the game (bac rules considered).

In fact those are the main factors that may alter bac successions vs coin flip successions. (Yes, by now we someway disregard the B>P probability).

What is important to say, imo of course, is that such important possible features will work by slight values and many times not presenting by sufficient levels capable to erase the HE.

It's like we're betting at a game where our EV moves from -1.06/-1.24 to +0.50 or +0.80, sometimes and hopefully way more positive than that.
So it could take a relatively long time to get its cumulative full power.

Are there bac random walks better than others?

Yes, providing we'll make a super selective betting worth of getting rid of the many 'coincidental' results making the recreational players fortune (or misfortune).
And of course providing that the best random walk we could think of is made by the least possible amount of favourable spots, that is 1.

For example say that we have two A and B events (that in no way could be B and P) to choose from and the 'range' of intervention will be 4 event steps.

Per every 4-event step, we'll get 16 possible patterns to face and 14 of them include a kind of consecutive A or B result.
So only ABAB and BABA patterns won't form any consecutive A/B pattern.
It's the old unlikelihood to get multiple 'hopping' events in a row, remember?

Ok, but the above values are taken assuming a 50/50 independent and random game, so we have reasons to think that a kind of dependence and possible unrandomness will slightly shift more such unlikelihood to get ABAB and BABA.
And even if this is not true, at some point those two less likely events must concede the room to the other more likely patterns at the next 4-event steps.

Therefore we do not need to get multiple A or B consecutive patterns, just any AA or BB pattern per any step of any lenght considered (4-event step was just an example).

Ok, per every 4-event step we'll have to make 3 bets to get a consecutive A or B 'run', but we can easily wait to bet after the first or the second betting step that had fictionally failed once or more times.
It's like we are adopting a kind of progressive multilayered plan acting just after some deviations happened so now a flat betting scheme will get the best of it at different levels.
The more we wait for deviated results higher will be our EV, providing to take care of A and B events that may need many hands to be classified.

Fortunately and without waiting too long, it's a piece of cake to understand when A or B will be clustered at least one time, as always it's important not to particularly like A or B as they are the exact opposite sides of the medal.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on February 23, 2023, 02:25:33 PM
Hi asym

Nice /thorough essay.

"a) baccarat productions could be not perfect randomly offered;

b) baccarat productions are affected by a kind of 'dependence' as a finite number of cards is employed to deal the game (bac rules considered)."


re: a) I agree, however, the detection early in the "non-random" presentation is often difficult. This nonrandom presentation often is fleeting or short-lived, IMO, at least for me it is difficult to discern in early stages.

re: b) The finiteness of cards and events is IMO what makes Bac a better game vs say craps or blackjack(early shuffles,..etc).



Continued Success,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 27, 2023, 03:18:45 AM
Thanks KFB for your reply!

About the possible unrandomness of the game I would present this topic:

The wrong player and the right player

Say that anytime we join a table we have two distinct players thinking for us: the player who tries to be right most of the times and a second player hating the first one and liking to counteract his options as he knows that it's impossible to be right most of the times at baccarat.
Obviously the same impossibility to be wrong most of the times will apply for the 'wrong' player.

So we have to decide which one to follow as hands are dealt.

Since we know that the probability to be either right or wrong per each shoe dealt can't be 1 or 0 (providing a fair number of bets made), we could assume that at some stage things will change.
And if things do change, probability to get the right player or the wrong player to win can't be 0 or 1 but must come out by a probability higher or lower than 50%.

Naturally the probability that the right or wrong player will win is in direct relationship of the betting frequency, so the lesser the frequency higher will be the probability that things won't change.

Nonetheless and assuming for example a 1/4 betting frequency (one hand bet per every 4 hands dealt, ties ignored) probability to be always right or always wrong is not zero but very very very unlikely to happen. Actually for a 80-hand resolved shoe, it's like to be right or wrong by crossing a nearly 4.5 sigma probability.

Before crossing such very very very unlikely scenario, more likely patterns will come out at different levels so endorsing the right or wrong player probability to win.

I mean that it's very very very unlikely to get 20 hands shifted toward one wrong or right side, but there's a way greater probability to guess right 20-hands long by 'following' the right player or the wrong player at some point to stop their winning/losing streaks.

The important thing is to reduce (select) the A/B events pace as more hands are needed to form a given pattern higher will be the probability that things will change.
And this is not only a by product of variance but of cards distribution probability.

In a random independent binomial succession 1-steps and 2-steps are equally balanced with superior steps, at baccarat the binomial succession is dependent, finite and asymmetrically placed by the rules, not by an universal strenght but by an 'actual' strenght that must takes into account a volatile degree of likely unrandomness acting at various levels.
So here very often 1-steps and 2-steps are more or less likely than expected.


as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 01, 2023, 03:24:26 AM
Right and wrong players work by classes, that is by random walk steps

It's sure as hell that random walks moving at a perfect random environment can't provide detectable points as random world remains random, that is unbeatable.
So here we have strong reasons to think that the right or wrong player will take 'unguessable' lines even though the game is asymmetrical by the rules and somewhat finite.
Thus we don't know when the right or wrong player 'steps' will move forward or to stop then eliciting the opposite player to show up.

Fortunately, most of the times baccarat shoes won't fit the 'perfect' randomness feature and long term datasets proving otherwise can directly go under the toilet.

Therefore in the vast majority of the times our right and wrong players 'steps' move around way more likely situations. And that means a sensible likelihood that an event A will go forward or to stop by percentages different than expected by a perfect random environment.

But to grasp a probable non randomness of the outcomes we need to consider 'multiple hands' events , that is the total negation of the place selection tool confirming that a given succession should considered really random only whenever every point (whatever taken) will get the same probability to appear and at baccarat this is not the case.

More on that next week, in the meanwhile keep winning as we do.  ;)

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 06, 2023, 03:41:57 AM
Even though RP (right player) and WP (wrong player) outcomes will deviate from the 0 origin for long, we should understand that every intermediate movement will more likely take short but asymmetrical steps.

First let's consider a perfect random independent binomial model applied to infinite 6-hand patterns. So RP=WP.
Ties ignored, we have 64 possible R/W patterns but only 16 of them will be balanced in terms of an equal number of R and W.
It's like that anytime we attack each 6-hand pattern (whatever taken) the probability to get a kind of 'unbalanced' overall scenario vs a balanced one is 4:1.
Obviously this ratio won't change in relationship of the exact point attacked, as being proportionally placed.

Now let's take a double asymmetrical, finite and way likely not perfect random distribution (baccarat) where R and W  are supposed to get more polarized lines for every 6-hand dealt.
Thus we play (for real or fictionally) a 6-hand range pattern knowing that we are more likely to end it up by a sort of unbalanced ratio.
And what are the most probable unbalanced ratios to look at?
Naturally 4-2, then 5-1 and finally 6-0.

The important fact is that RP and WP do not play simple hands but patterns, so needing a more room to come out (that is more connected hands).

Therefore the RP and the WP are way more probable to form unbalanced short ratios than getting balanced lines for long.
Naturally we can't know exactly when a line will be unbalanced and by how much but surely it will.
Especially after having properly evaluated the previous balanced patterns surpassing some 'more expected' normal values.

After all, whenever we take a univocal betting line (RP) we are missing a lot of valuable opportunities coming around for the WP.
And we need just one step to be ahead or, at worst, to guess at least one winning hand per every two bets made.

Example.

Everybody knows the difficulty to be ahead after two or three or more shoes dealt, and the HE plays a minor role on that.
Obviously as long as the RP wins, we do not have reasons to shift toward the WP betting line.
But such thing happens more infrequently than most players hope for.

Anyway WP has the same identical probability to win and getting the same winning lines, but luckily for casinos nobody is going to someway stop or neglecting a possible unlikely winning line of some kind (so NOT taking the RP part) as the players' aim is to stubbornly get 'sky's the limit' winnings around any corner.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 08, 2023, 02:46:52 AM
Let's take the casino's counterpart: they serenely accept RP results knowing that sooner or later the WP counterpart will come out. (HE is just an accelerator factor working for the house and not the main tool making us losers).

In fact huge players winnings are asymmetrically produced than huge casino winnings and not by a 1.25% or so HE working for them.

I mean that unless we are able to endure long waiting periods before betting, many times we have to take the part of the WP, that is and taking a forum member words 'playing to miss' instead of constantly looking for favourable opportunities making the RP fortune.

Technically and just to give an example is betting a couple of hands that streaks will stop, or possible starting patterns to stop, or better yet that no common valuable patterns should come along, the right 'hope' (it's a symmetrical expectancy) casinos will rely about.

If you are able to catch the more likely situations where WP will get its share of 'positive' results, you won't concede room to casinos hoping for inevitable strong outcomes changes.

In some sense it's like that nearly 50% of the times we're playing the same side casinos hope for.
And itlr casinos do not lose and more importantly do not win just what math dictates.

Next week I'll elaborate this concept.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 14, 2023, 10:12:07 PM
Patterns waiting time

Coin flip successions were deeply investigated by many scholars and not only by a strict math/statistical point of view but even about how they are perceveid by humans (Gardner studies for example and many others afterwards).

To cut a long story short, humans tend to get an 'overalternating' perception of random binary outcomes, in poorer words they expect a given winning side to stop soon after a positive run or to think that a streak of certain lenght is less likely than what math really dictates.
It's one example of Gambler's Fallacy.

On the other hand, after years of playing this game, I've found that most part of baccarat players tend to assign too much emphasis to the opposite feature, that is looking for the 'streaky' part of the game and neglecting the 'alternating' one.
Obviously and differently to a coin flip succession where H and T are continuously showing up, bac players add some (basic) considerations to the 'streaky/alternating' ratio, for example considering singles vs doubles, or double vs 3+s, long streaks, etc.
In any instance most players constantly hope to get streaky situations of some kind to show up as it's the easiest situation not needing much thought to accumulate winnings.

See you later

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 15, 2023, 03:18:49 AM
So we are 'genetically oriented' to think that random successions are somewhat more limited than real, but all of a sudden while playing baccarat we are completely distorting such predisposition thus hoping for endless streaky situations of any kind.

The difference between the two different ways of thinking 'outcomes' is that whereas our ancestors would have starved for long when they didn't find any food (so fearing at most long no-food runs), at baccarat we can serenely wait the possible favourable opportunities without consuming a lot (or any) of our resources by exploiting the most likely situations that must happen sooner or later even if they don't show up around any corner.
Furthermore and even considering a 'unbeatable' random world, some patterns that mathematically have the same probability to appear will show up sooner than others.

Example.

Say that at a random coin flip succession you have to choose from one of those HTHHTT or HHHHHH pattern coming out first.
All intermediate patterns do not count, so you will win or lose just when one of the two patterns will show up first.
Different studies, albeit being made on different patterns lenght, have demonstrated that the former HTHHTT pattern will show up by a lesser 'waiting time' than the HHHHHH pattern, despite of having the same probability to appear.

So we do not know about all other patterns coming out, but we do know that we're favorite to first cross the HTHHTT pattern than the HHHHHH pattern, so in some way the 'waiting time' matters.

Obviously this finding doesn't directly help us to predict bac outcomes (random independent propositions are unbeatable by definition), but maybe luring us to think about the importance that    some events, albeit getting the same probability to appear, will feature different 'waiting times'.

Fortunately for us, baccarat is not a perfect random proposition and not even a perfect symmetrical 'fight' (as B>P), yet the aforementioned findings still get a huge role in determining  why 'complex' events (e.g. HTHHTT) should show up first before some other 'equal probability' counterparts will do.
Therefore in some sense attributing a decisive role to the 'waiting time' gaps.

See you next week.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on March 18, 2023, 07:43:55 PM
AsymBacGuy above in post #773.

"...Say that at a random coin flip succession you have to choose from one of those HTHHTT or HHHHHH pattern coming out first.
All intermediate patterns do not count, so you will win or lose just when one of the two patterns will show up first.
Different studies, albeit being made on different patterns lenght, have demonstrated that the former HTHHTT pattern will show up by a lesser 'waiting time' than the HHHHHH pattern, despite of having the same probability to appear.

So we do not know about all other patterns coming out, but we do know that we're favorite to first cross the HTHHTT pattern than the HHHHHH pattern, so in some way the 'waiting time' matters. ..."

I agree Asym and wait-time distance between shorter patterns are even more important IMO(as related to Bac). With that said I also think we need to be cautious when comparing a coin toss vs a near-5050 proposition such as so called even-chance games like Bac. Due mainly to how the casino treats a Push and Tie results, which obviously a coin toss has neither.


In my opinion one of the best pieces of research on coin tosses and similar probability events was written by a Dr. R.S. Nickerson back in early 2000s I believe. In part below (I will post whole article once we have capability to upload pics and such).


Reasoning about probabilities can be tricky. Some probability problems
are notoriously opaque, even occasionally for people well-versed in prob␂ability theory. Examples include
• the three-doors or car-or-goat problem ("the Monty Hall problem") [Vos
Savant 1990a; 1990b],
• the sibling-gender problem [Bar-Hillel and Falk 1982],
• the condemned-prisoner problem [Gardner 1961, 226–232],
• Bertrand's paradox [Nickerson 2005], and
• the exchange paradox (two-envelope problem) [Nickerson and Falk 2006].



The UMAP Journal 28 (4) (2007) 503–532. ␂c Copyright 2007 by COMAP, Inc. All rights reserved.
Permission to make digital or hard copies of part or all of this work for personal or classroom use
is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial
advantage and that copies bear this notice.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 20, 2023, 05:05:25 AM
Excellent point KFB!!

Casinos do not give a lesser fk about probability in decline, RVM definition of randomness, Marian V. Smoluchoswki probability after effect concept and many others studies conclusions, as whenever a math edge is shifted at their side, well, the remaining stuff is just bighorn.sh.it.
Good for us.

At their bac tables casinos should print in bold those words: "players should be warned that we try to deal random successions, actually it's very likely we don't"

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on March 21, 2023, 03:21:25 PM
As alrelax has mentioned the Tote Board is a great invention and designed to make players focus on the wrong type of outcomes: streaks. Red vs Blue, same-side streaks vs opps,...etc. Even the rectangular shape was clever.

I frequently have friends across the country that are well versed in games such as Texas Holdem, Poker-type games, Miss Stud,....etc. They have little knowledge of Bac but will walk through a table pit and snap a pic of a Bac Tote Board and send it to me and say something like: Mr Fu you would have scored a homerun on this streak.

The streak will always be a same-side streak or Opp streak. One in particular recently sent a
long P-streak of 12. However, what he didn't see was a perfect 3-1 streak(BBB P BBB P BBB P BBB) of 15 just before that and it was one that was easy to see at the beginning(if one was looking for a streak different than same-side or opps).


Continued Success,

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 21, 2023, 09:53:23 PM
Lol, I like 'Mr Fu'...I guess Fu stands for 'luck' isn't it?

Yep, that succession was awesome and of course scientifically unsound (actually it's not strictly speaking), yet I guess most bac players would have collected many wins from that.

Is it rare to happen? Sure!
Are there other ways than following it in order to get multiple back-to-back winnings? Nope.

Independence

The notion of independence, which is, in a way, the heart of randomness, presents a major psychological obstacle.
This obstacle involves severe fallacies concerning random walks (Falk).

We have seen that 'normal' people tend to assign (improperly) a too much 'overalternating' strenght at random binary successions whereas bac players tend to do the opposite, that is hoping that random binary sequences will get homogeneous situations of many kind around any corner.

Obviously as long as the baccarat production is really random, both different ways of thinking 'probability' doesn't lead to nowhere as random=unbeatable.

More on that later

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 22, 2023, 03:02:44 AM
Postulating that bac shoes are not randomly shuffled doesn't mean that streaks of 'specific' something all of the time will take a univocal direction longer than expected, it would be too easy to exploit the game.
In fact we can't know what will be more likely to happen per every shoe dealt as things continuously change so not privileging one side or the other one of the operating world.

That's why the only tool we can rely upon is the watchdog of randomness: standard deviation values.

Beyond any doubt bac shoes are not perfect randomly shuffled but it's very likely they are offered quite close to that, so we should learn to distinguish when and how much the unrandom world will take a practically exploitable lead over the unbeatable random world.

Therefore we should think of our bets in terms of winning 'ranges' where most part of them will fall into the random EV- proposition but some of them do incorporate a greater than expected winning probability capable to erase and invert the HE working at all other bets.

It's the same math concept why Banker wagers are less worse than Player bets: most of the times they don't, all of a sudden they strongly are.

Then it's intuitive to think that the 'independence' factor cannot work at baccarat as unrandom shoes sooner or later will feature a kind of dependence more likely showing up at sensibile levels after the formation of certain 'complex' events that tend to restrict the power of randomness.

In a nutshell and differently to any other gambling game, at baccarat each shoe is a world apart where most outcomes are randomly offered but some events (due to the unrandom shuffling nature) are way more likely to happen than what a pure random world dictates (e.g. sensible lower sd values).

Our advantage comes right by selecting 'probability' ranges where one or more bets should involve a strong EV+ capable to proportionally erase and invert all the other wagers made on that betting range (where half are lost and half are won by chance), the same way why itlr B>P.

Fortunately for us, regarding baccarat mathematicians and gambling 'experts' have made two fatal mistakes:

a) Taking for grant that bac shoes are really randomly offered;

b) It's the corollary of the above point, that is considering baccarat as any other gambling game where the 'whole' findings (infinite shoes) matter instead of focusing about 'single shoe' dependent features and properties.

Baccarat works the same way as poker: it's better to appear stu.p.i.d than smart but with a substantial difference: itlr at poker some players are detected smarter than others, at baccarat we are all stu.pi.d.s with no exception.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 26, 2023, 04:07:12 AM
At baccarat there are sure indeniable bet selections getting a slight edge over the house (after vig, of course) so bac results are affected by a kind of dependency neglecting a perfect unbeatable randomness.

The problem is that such 'slight' edge is quite dispersed within the various successions, needing some 'room' to show up.

Tomorrow I'll present many real examples of that, maybe it would be helpful to understand that a lot of times baccarat is more a silly than wonderful game even though we're playing with a verified edge.
 
as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on March 26, 2023, 01:14:45 PM
YOU SAID:

"a) Taking for grant that bac shoes are really randomly offered;

b) It's the corollary of the above point, that is considering baccarat as any other gambling game where the 'whole' findings (infinite shoes) matter instead of focusing about 'single shoe' dependent features and properties."


And, what you said above, is probably 2 of the biggest mistakes most all make.  First, one assumes and believes that all the forthcoming presentments are truly random (and without reason) from the shoe. 

And, second that most all will be continuously (CONTINUOUSLY) running their findings together as a constant play rather than a finite or sectioned event.

Think about it, really sit down and give it thought.  Personally, I certainly stopped the all too famous and popular, "well so and so happened, so now such and such must occur", etc., etc., wager justification rants at the table.  Except maybe, when it is at those +10 and at or near that +20 count. Other than that, I am most certainly wagering for what is being presented rather than wagering for those dream full whole findings to come out and match up with math/stats/results and so on.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 26, 2023, 09:22:24 PM
Very true, yet imo there's a difference between 'trying to adhere at most at the actual shoe' and 'trying to adhere at most at the actual shoe kwowing the more likely patterns ranges'.

One of the best advices you gave us Al is that while crossing a winning situation, people tend to get confidence 'too late' in the process instead of 'pushing' sooner.
I've found this attitude to be a strong mistake as more often than not positive things become less and less probable.
Of course negative situations appear to come out endlessly, so there's no point to press anything just watching.

Later the data I was talking about yesterday.
 

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 27, 2023, 02:25:41 AM
Sorry I have some issues to display the data, hope to fix the problem very soon.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on April 22, 2023, 02:07:19 AM
Stop talking about theory, let's put in practice all the bigh.orn.s.h.it I've stressed you so long here.

Taking an idea from another forum's member, I'll make fictional bets in real time at live outcomes.

Sessions will be made following casinoscores.com/lightning-baccarat site.

We pretend to get a $1.000.000 bankroll by wagering $10.000 unit bets, maximum bet will be $30.000 . Reason to consider a 3x standard bet is because I do not want to make an endless series of NB (no bets).
Bets will be written under the 1 or 1. form, so for example a $15.000 bet at Banker side will be a  B1.5

Games are assumed as normal commission games (5% vig).
vig will be acconuted at the end of each session .

Bets will be placed as:

B = Banker bet
P = Player bet
NB = No bet

I'll make my best efforts to spot the next bet ASAP and to write down the actual W or L result.

Despite that, I've recently experienced a very bad connection on that site, so whenever this thing happens I'll simply report this.

For simplicity time considered will be GMT.

Each session will be displayed by a fresh thread on my section (365FB and the number) 

Let's play!

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on April 22, 2023, 09:36:10 PM
Unfortunately it's very difficult to follow casinoscores as many results are missing from the displays and there's no interruption between shoes.
The only way to collect outcomes is to write down them from the streaming, but even this sometimes doesn't work.

So end of the 'experiment'.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on April 26, 2023, 12:33:41 AM
b]Gaps[/b]

It's obvious that the game could be beatable by qualities and quantity qualities and not by mere quantities.
A quality (I consider the term in a wide sense) needs more linked factors to show up, so the field of randomness should be somewhat restricted especially when it's not a real randomness.
 
Let's make an example.

Assume we're using a sky's the limit progression wagering that the very first pattern of any shoe dealt won't be a 3+ streak (a streak longer than 2).
So hoping that the first pattern will be a single or a double.

I take randomly 10 shoes from my datasets and see what happens.

L, W, L, W, W, W, L, W, W, L.

If we use a 1-2 progression for any step progressively raising the bet after a two-step loss (1-2, 4-8, 16-32, 64-128, etc), this sample would be a winning one featuring just single losses between wins. Despite of the total W/L ratio by flat betting accounts to -6 units (vig ignored for simplicity) as W=6 (x1) and L=4 (x3).

Arrange this WL succession into all possible permutations and it could happen, albeit quite unlikely, that the sequence will look as L,L,L,L,W,W,W,W,W,W.
Now our progression would be as 1-2 (L), 4-8 (L), 16-32 (L) and 64-128 (L), that is 255 units spent to win just one miserable unit.
We needed a 256-512 progressive unit plan to recover all the previous losses (but vig could lower that ratio).

So far we may infer that playing singles/doubles vs 3+ streaks at a preordered point could be a very dangerous BS plan, actually it is even at any other point of the shoe considered.

Another observation we can make at the original succession is that after a L every next outcome will be a W.
On the other hand betting W after a W provides just one loss being followed by two wins.

Finally, when the number of L is inferior than the number of W at a 10-shoe sample, at least one WW clustered event will mathematically happen.

Anyway by wagering this exact first pattern situation, we're playing a quantity.

Go on and see at the same original succession what's the second pattern coming out after the first one whatever it is, always in terms of W=single/double and L=3+ streak.

L, W, W, W, W, W, W, L, W, W.

Now our progressive plan no matter the possible permutations involved remains good as no back to back L came out.
Moreover the L singled outcome trigger remains good and just the first and second pattern produced two L in a row.

By flat betting (1-2) this second pattern we got a +2 units, so we are still behind 4 units (after vig).

Let's take another 10-shoes sample and see what happens.
First pattern:

W, W, L, W, W, L, W, W, W, L.

By FB (1-2) it's a -2 units loss.
The single L trigger stands and the same about WW clusters.

Notice that overall we got -6, +2, -2 so we're still behind 6 units.
Obviously by adopting the sky's the limit approach so far we did't get any bust.

See the second pattern of this second 10-shoes sample:

W, W, L, W, L, W, W, W, W, W.

Again +2 units by FB, single L trigger remains solid, W clusters quite good.
No matter the permutations.

Maybe someone could see that the second patterns are more likely to produce a W succession after a L one (and perhaps vice versa) but that's not the point.

Let's see about a third 10-shoe sample taken randomly.

W, W, W, W, W, W, L, W, W, W.

Easy game, huh?  :D Not really. 
The total count by flat betting is +6, so erasing the previous deficit (again before vig).
Notice we are considering 30 shoes.
But a single spot we didn't have to put in action our pogressive plan.   

Second pattern

W, W, W, L, W, W, W, L, W, W.

+2 by FB, just two spots needed a first-step progressive plan.

Fourth 10-shoe sample (again taken randomly).

L, L, W, W, L, W, L, W, W, W.

Same considerations about the first 10-shoe sample, but here we got a LL sequence.
By FB our total account for this sample is -6.

Second pattern

W, W, L, W, L, W, W, W, W, W.

'Randomness' is so capricious, again a W/L 8/2 ratio (+2 by FB).

Fifth sample.

W, W, W, W, W, W, W, W, W, W.

Wow, no 3+ streaks at the very start of any shoe.

Second pattern

W, W, L, L, W, W, L, L, L, W.

It seems we can't stay ahead by FB for long, -9 units by FB and the L singled trigger seems to not working.
Fortunately W clusters keep winning but it's a coincidence as 5 L and 5 W could easily distribute to get multiple singled W situations.

Sixth sample

W, L, L, W, W, L, W, L, W, W.

FB = -6 units
Now we have two W clusters and two singled W situations.

Second pattern:

L, L, W, W, W, L, L, W, W, W.

FB= -6 units.
No L singled situations and two W clusters.

If we'd think that betting towards singles/doubles vs 3+ streaks could get a kind of direct advantage, well it seems it's not the case.
So far our progressive plan got the best of it as only one time we had to utilize the fourth level of the progression, but we know that some different permutations would make us to lose our entire bankroll (either for bankroll finitess and for the maximum limits).

Are there other tools coming at our help to mitigate a negative variance or to raise our probability of success?

Let's consider now the back to back result (first pattern and second pattern) per each shoe dealt.
Again W= single or double and L= 3+ streak

Now the picture looks as

1) LL, WW, LW, WW, WW, WW, LW, WL, WW, LW

2) WW, WW, LL, WW, WL, LW, WW, WW, WW, LW

3) WW, WW, WW, WL, WW, WW, LW, WL, WW, WW

4) LW, LW, WL, WW, LL, WW, LW, WW, WW, WW

5) WW, WW, WL, WL, WW, WW, WL, WL, WL, WW

6) WL, LL, LW, WW, WW, LL, WL, LW, WW, WW.

Now the L clusters are well more defined in their distribution, more likely roaming around a 0 point.
On the other end and despite a slight than average apparition, W clusters distribute more clustered than isolated (of course after having considered the 3:1 probability ratio).

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on April 26, 2023, 01:45:39 AM
Seventh sample taken randomly (10-shoes data considered as first and second pattern):

WW, WW, WW, WL, WW, WL, WW, WW, WW, LL.

Eight sample:

WW, LW, LW, WW, WW, LW, WW, LW, WW, LW.

Ninth sample:

WW, WW, WW, WW, LW, LW, LW, WW, LW.

Tenth sample:

WW, LW, WW, WW, WW, WW, WW, WW, WW, WW

11th sample

WW, LW, WW, WW, LW, WW, LL, LW, WW, WW.

12th sample:

WW, LW, WW, WW, LW, WW, LW, WW, WW, WL.

13th sample:

WW, WW, LL, WW, LW, LW, LW, LW, WW, WW.

14th sample:

WW, WW, LW, WW, WW, LW, LW, WW, WW, LW.

15th sample:

WL, LW, WW, WL, WW, WW, LL, LW, WW, LW.

16th sample:

WW, LW, WL, LL, WW, WW, WW, WW, WW, WL.

17th sample:

WW, LW, WW, LW, WW, WW, WW, WL, WW, WL.

18th sample:

WW, WL, LL, WW, LW, WW, WW, WW, WL, WW

19th sample:

WL, WL, WW, WW, WW, LL, WW, LW, WW, WW.

20th sample:

WW, WW, WL, WW, WW, LW, WW, LW, LW, WW.

I can run my datasets forever or any other reliable bac source and things won't change.
Maybe some harsh variance could come out along the way but itlr everything must be placed accordingly to that statistical appearance.

In this 140 shoes sample we got:
- 47 W clusters;
- 11 W singles;
-  7 L clusters;
- 41 L singles.

But that's just a start, there are more powerful tools to take advantage of.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on April 30, 2023, 02:52:30 AM
Thx for the intel/ theories above in post #785. Several good applications.

Can you elaborate a little more on the following:

"...On the other end and despite a slight than average apparition, W clusters distribute more clustered than isolated (of course after having considered the 3:1 probability ratio)...."


Asym:

"...It's obvious that the game could be beatable by qualities and quantity qualities and not by mere quantities...."



??? tongue twister  :)
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on April 30, 2023, 11:37:39 PM
Hi KFB and thanks!

IMO a long term winning bac player should put the house to hope for something slight unlikely to happen and not vice versa.

Betting B or P alone makes the house's expectations as it's a close to a 50/50 unbeatable proposition (Kerrich coin flip data, for example), furthermore aggravated by a negative edge.

Raising the probability of success at greater than 50% values might get us more predictable situations not just for a mere (and fruitless) math condition but because baccarat is a multiple asymmetrical game.

Therefore it doesn't make any substantial difference if I'm betting B after B or after P as any single hand seems to have no valuable dependent informations to take advantage from.

Now say you'll bet that a given column won't produce a 3/3+ streak, so the W/L proposition is 3:1 as after having lost the first bet (not being a single) in order to get a profit you'll raise (double) the second bet toward a double.
It's a math affair: on average and assuming a perfect coin flip game, one triple will come out after 3 single/double apparitions of any kind and distribution.

So according to the above posts, let's pretend to set up a progressive multilayered plan that the very first pattern of any shoe won't be a 3/3+ streak.
3 streak = L and single/double = W

Itlr and without any doubt W clusters will be slight superior than W isolated, the only (relative) issue is about the vig.
The same but by a lesser degree of confidence level about each class of Ls, more isolated than clustered, more doubled than tripled, etc.

Nevertheless this is just a 'quantity' point of view, very susceptible to the negative variance.
Sooner or later and still considering 10-shoes samples, it will happen that ALL 10 shoes will form a 3 streak at the very beginning of it (first column).
A very very unlikely scenario but surely it will happen.

Now let's consider the second column in relationship of what happened at the very first one:
Simplifying a lot, how many 3s will follow another 3 streak that came out as first pattern?
And how many single/double patterns will follow a single/double pattern previously showing up at the first column?
Now the variance is way more restricted as it's somewhat negated by several steps the 'hopping' verified baccarat propensity. In some way that's a quality factor.
Here the probability to encounter 3/3 patterns at both first and second columns of each shoe is almost zero. Assume is 0.

Consider this 10-shoe sample taken randomly
W= single or double and L= 3 streak

WL
LL
WW
WW
WW
WL
WW
WW
WL
WW

Put these outcomes into a horizontal succession:

WLLLWWWWWWWLWWWWWLWW 

Another 10-shoe sample:

WW
WL
WW
WW
WW
LW
WW
LL
LW
WW

The horizontal succession is: WWWLWWWWWWLWWWLLLWWW

Another 10-shoe sample:

WW
LW
WW
LW
WW
WW
LW
WW
LW
WW

Horizontal succession is WWLWWWLWWWWWLWWWLWWW

Comments

At baccarat there's no point to 'chase' losses, only betting towards winning clusters at the same time never forgetting that we need just the number 1 to be ahead (hoping for more than 1 is just gambling). The same 1 number could be utilized at L situations but knowing it will get a greater variance's impact.

In order to reduce variance, results must be someway restricted within 'ranges'.

It's impossible to beat baccarat if we're considering it a kind of coin flip game.

After all at a perfect random coin flip game and no matter how much we raise the probability of success, itlr W clusters = W isolated and L isolated = L clusters.
It's wise to work out at things disputing this and not trying to beat it mathematically as it can't be possible by any means.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on April 30, 2023, 11:53:25 PM
Notice that at baccarat we do not want to guess this or that hand, but putting the house to 'hope' we won't be right each time we'll bet towards more likely situations to happen framed into a W/L scheme.

Test your shoes and let me know how many times a first and second column results arranged at a horizontal succession will produce quite different conditions I've depicted above.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 01, 2023, 12:19:30 AM
Another sample:

WL
LL
WL
WW
LL
LW
WL
LW
WW
LW

A quite harsh 10-shoe sample, a lot of 3 streaks...notice those back to back 3 streaks at two shoes.

Horizontal line: WLLLWLWWLLLWWLLWWWLW

L= -30 AND W= 10,  that's a strong deviation toward negative territory
Despite that we have tools to find situations to make our bets more likely to win.

An additional 10-shoe sample:

LW
WW
LW
WW
WW
LW
WW
WW
LL
WW

Hor line: LWWWLWWWWWLWWWWWLLWW

One more:

WW
LL
WW
WW
WW
WW
LW
WW
LL
LL

Horiz line: WWLLWWWWWWWWLWWWLLLL

L= -21 W= +13

Still we find ways to win, actually so far the shoes samples taken randomly cumulatively produced a L>W ratio, yet we can easily win.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on May 01, 2023, 03:12:58 AM
Thanks Asym for your prompt response.

I like your way of thinking.

"...IMO a long term winning bac player should put the house to hope for something slight unlikely to happen and not vice versa..."


Continued Success,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 02, 2023, 10:13:27 PM
Thanks KFB!

It's a proven fact that people making a living at gambling bet towards things more likely to happen and not by chasing unlikely positive situations.

For example, the single/double category can stand 18-23 hands without getting a single loss, the triple counterpart needs 6 or 7 consecutive wins to balance the equation.

Now we all know that such unlikely triple long streak will happen sooner or later, in the meanwhile we have reasons to expect that a more than average opposite category will form a profitable ratio.

So there's no way to avoid sh.it, just to lower its verified (un)proportional impact over the long term outcomes.

I can show you at least 5 or 6 different betting attacks getting a sure indeniable advantage over the house (obviously by FB), yet a lot of variance must be endured putting at risk our composure.
Therefore we know that this game is beatable, the problem is to set up a plan directed to realize the proper 'frequency' about how and when the advantage will more likely show up.

House can only hope to deal 'random' successions where each bet is burdened by a math edge and to 'raise' the randomness it will allow a 'cut' and employing a burn procedure dictated by the first card nature.
We have already seen in my pages that the 'burn' technique won't change the patterns distribution, let alone the 'cut'. It's just a matter of time that patterns will come out by their more likely propensity. Yesterday, now, tomorrow and forever.

This kind of effect is amplified whenever we consider back to back shoes, more specifically when we compare or put in relationship same positional outcomes of each shoe, so forming new successions.

Cards arrangements might noticeably affect one shoe or maybe two shoes so enticing the formation of strongly deviated results at either side, yet math and game's propensities can't be neglected for long but we need a sort of 'complex' patterns evaluation to ascertain that.
And to get a valuable patterns evaluation we need many hands (and shoes) to be dealt.

Not coincidentally last examples involved just the first and second pattern dealt of each shoe then making a 'positional' back to back succession by a W and L shape.

The SD vs T approach is a very basic strategy, yet it could get the idea of what I'm talking about.

So more real shoes taken randomly will come out, as you well know I'm not selling anything.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 03, 2023, 12:51:00 AM
First 10-shoe sample:

LW
WL
WW
WL
WW
WW
WL
WW
WW
WW

LWWLWWWLWWWWWLWWWWWW

Ok, easy job, hope for harsher situations..

Second 10-shoe sample

WW
WL
WW
LL
LW
WW
LW
LW
LW
WW

WWWLWWLLLWWWLWLWLWW

A less unwelcome succession than the previous one, yet if we have no reasons to chase the LLL sequence there're some spots to bet on.

Third sample

WW
WW
WW
WW
LL
WW
WW
WW
LW
WW

WWWWWWWWLLWWWWWWLWWW

Good successions

Fourth sample

WW
LW
WW
LW
LL
WL
WW
WW
WW
WL

WWLWWWLWLLWLWWWWWWWWL

Bad sequence at hands #9, #10 and #12. 

Fifth sample

WW
LW
LL
WW
WW
WL
LW
WW
WW
WW

WWLWLLWWWWWLLWWWWWWW

Two losing situations in a row (events #5 and #6)

Sixth sample

WW
WL
WL
LW
LL
WL
LW
WW
WW
WW

WWWLWLLWLLWLLWWWWWWW

Here we go!
Finally a very bad succession came out.
W clusters got 3 losing spots in a row and out of 4 L sequences, just one L came out isolated.
A mechanical plan betting toward W clusters and L isolated spots got 6 consecutive losing situations, that is 12 losing hands in a row.
What we can do here? Nothing!
Just accepting the losses and go forward.

Seventh sample

WW
WW
LW
LW
LW
WW
LL
WW
WL
LW

WWWWLWLWLWWWLLWWWLLW

Now no more than one losing spot (between W clusters and isolated L).

Eight sample

LW
WW
WW
WW
WW
WW
WL
WW
WW

LWWWWWWWWWWWWWWLWWWW

Good sequence.

Ninth sample

WW
WL
WW
WW
WW
WW
WW
LL
WW
WW

WWWLWWWWWWWWWWLLWWWW

Not a bad sequence

Tenth sample

WW
WW
WW
WW
WW
WW
LW
WL
WW
WW

WWWWWWWWWWWWLWWLWWWW

Another good sequence.

Since the sixth sample went so bad let's see what happens next:

Eleventh sample

LW
WW
WW
LW
WW
WW
WL
WL
WW
WW

LWWWWWLWWWWWWLWLWWWW

Not a bad sequence either

Twelfth sample

WW
LW
WW
LL
WL
WW
WL
WW
LW
WW

WWLWWWLLWLWWWLWWLWWW

No bad

Thirteenth sample

WW
WW
LW
WW
WL
WW
LW
LL
WW
WW

WWWWLWWWWLWWLWLLWWWW

Things seem to arrange themselves into a more 'normal' fashion

Fourteenth sample

WL
WW
LW
WW
WW
WW
WW
WW
WW
WL

WLWWLWWWWWWWWWWWWWWL

Again not too bad

Fifteenth sample

WW
WW
WW
LL
WW
WW
WW
WW
WW
WW

WWWWWWLLWWWWWWWWWWWWW

Not bad

Sixteenth sample

WW
LL
WW
WW
WL
WW
WW
WW
LW
WW

WWLLWWWWWLWWWWWWLWWW

Not bad

Seventeenth sample

WW
LW
WW
WW
WW
WW
WW
WW
LW
WW

WWLWWWWWWWWWWWWWLWWW

Another good succession

Eighteenth sample

LW
WW
WW
WW
WW
LL
WW
WL
WL
WW

LWWWWWWWWWLLWWWLWLWW

No more than one losing spot in a row

Twentieth sample

WL
LW
WL
LW
WL
LL
WW
WW
LW
WW

WLLWWLLWWLLLWWWWLWWW

Two consecutive losing spots in a row.

Comments

- Betting towards W clusters got us a +12 profit before vig;

- As already sayed L isolated situations are more affected by volatility;

- Starting to bet after having reached a fictional negative W clusters / W isolated ratio is a good way to forecasting more probable results;

- The S/D vs T simple ratio corresponds to a leptokurtic distribution; itlr only distribution issues could shift the results toward one profitable side.
Obviously the reason is because at baccarat doubles are the most likely outcome and triples (3/3+s) are less likely to happen for the well known slight propensity to get the opposite side to win.

-Despite of an expected 0.75% (S/D) vs 0.25% (T) probability, S/D streaks are way longer and more frequent than the  T counterpart (proportionally considered), so we'll have longer SD streaks than T streaks and that's one kind of advantage we can exploit while playing baccarat.

- Sh.it happens and no progressive plan could erase it, we just have to wait the more likely course of statistical probabilities.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 08, 2023, 03:17:31 AM
In a couple of days I'll show you how a math progressive approach will get the best of the game, for once it's a only Banker betting method needing very very unlikely sequences to fail.
Actually it's just a matter of money...

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 08, 2023, 03:20:02 AM
Such method relies upon three different math and statistical propensities having the principal effort to put in the least corner the negative variance.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 10, 2023, 01:02:49 AM
1- Itlr any event or series of events getting a greater than 50% probability to appear will more likely arrange in clusters.
Obviously such propensity is related with the probability value, so betting B after a B is a too tiny value to set up a plan upon, so affected by a huge level of variance.

2- On the other end, the less likely event or series of events show the obvious general propensity to come out isolated, yet they are way more affected by volatility than the above 'clusters' propensity as in some way they must catch up the 'normal' clustering effect.
After having studied large live shoes datasets we have reached the conclusion that it's better to 'chase' clusters than hoping to get 'less likely' isolated situations.

3- A considerable part of L isolated spots come out clustered after single (so not clustered) W events, so the succession looks as WLWLWL...

4- At baccarat the least possible effort to raise the winning probability from 0.5 to higher levels is to bet two hands in a row by 'chasing' a given outcome (0.75).

5- There are reasons to think that betting towards singles and doubles in terms of overall clustered or isolated successions is the simplest way to set up a plan.

6- It's not a coincidence that in my above posts I've focused the attention about the very two starting events that seemingly appear to get the highest impact of 'randomness'.

7- Progressions cannot erase or invert the HE, but if a slight propensity goes toward one side of action, it's just a matter of time to get the profits we aimed for.

Progressive plan.

Since we have to wager two times in order to get a profit but a progressive plan is in action (so lowering and diluting the disbursement will take a primary role), we set up the simplest scenario: wagering 1 and, in case of loss, 1. Both bets account for just one overall bet, so when we win at singles we profit 1, when we win at doubles we'll break even and when we lose both steps (a 3 streak appearance) we'll lose 2. (Vig is ignored here for simplicity).

We'll split our betting action within 7 distinct frames and per each frame we'll flat betting until we'll get a profit.
If a loss come out after betting all 7 two-step events, we'll raise the next standard bet by adding one unit to the temporary deficit and we'll bet this amount for 7 hands long until we'll get a profit. And so on. 
If a profit will come out BEFORE the 7-event frame ends up, we have to wait the 7-event termination, then restarting the betting with the standard unit.

Per every 7-event (two-step) frame we'll bet, out of 128 possible patterns (permutations) we have 93 positive winning patterns and only 35 losing patterns (0.7265% W probability) and this ratio will happen for every 'new' 7-event frame considered.

Example.

Following the W clusters and L isolated spots by betting toward singles/doubles at the very two initial shoe events (and considering them as a endless sequence), we'll lose 2 units whenever we'll encounter a L (3 streak), then winning 1 unit if the W is a single and breaking even if the W is a double.

The worst scenario per every 7-event (two-step) result is to lose ALL spots in the form of W isolated situations and L clustered situations, so the sequence will look as WLLWLLWLLWL where L could be longer than LL but we can't care less.
In such very unlikely instance our deficit will be -14 units so for the next 7-event frame we'll have to bet 15 units.

Of course losing 14 hands in a row is possible but it's a very very unlikely scenario, after all the problem relies upon the 'positional' W distribution in terms of clusters and L distribution in terms of isolated patterns, already more likely by intrinsic factors.

It's true that when things are going wrong, we need to employ a large bankroll, but eventually and unless very very unlikely permutations come out so negating our advantages, we'll know to come out ahead.

Summary

Things might change when we try to be ahead even after a first loss was made to chase a single. So also doubles constitute a win.

Anyway here's a kind of guideline:

Flat betting 7 times (by one or multiple slight progressive steps) the distribution of more likely probability events: at the end if you'll be ahead stay at the same unit amount for another 7 times. And so on.
Whenever you'll collect a loss (it can be just -1, -3, -5 or -7 units) for the next 7-event frame raise the betting amount by adding 1 unit (or more than that considering vig) to the actual deficit and so on.
Do not forget to let it go until the 7 events completion before betting again when ahead or to increase the bet while losing until seven hands are completed.

In terms of probability, this procedure should be solved by Markov transition matrices, to simplify the issue let's say that the expected probability to fail is 1:654.

Actually and at least in the terms prospected here (where itlr the bet selection makes a slight but significant role) the Black Swan (I like the Alrelax definition of a very bad situation showing up) will come out with odds close to 1:810 so getting the player a huge advantage over the house.

See u next week.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 17, 2023, 12:24:30 AM
Say we set up a progressive plan by wagering towards P singles vs P streaks by adopting the 7-step  progression method already discussed.

Once a new P hand comes out, we'll wager Banker by FB just one time (hoping a P single will show up) and we'll do that for 7 consecutive hands.
At the end of such 7 betting hands, results can only be those (vig ignored for simplicity):

+7 (all bets were winning P singles)
+5
+3
+1
-1
-3
-5
-7 (all bets were losing P streaks)

Without any shadow of doubt, itlr +7>-7, +5>-5, +3>-3 and +1>-1.
Of course vig will erase and invert such favourable propensity in terms of units won, yet those ratios stand yesterday, now, tomorrow and forever.

If after 7 bets made we'll be ahead by FB, we collect the winnings and restart a new 7-hand cycle.
If we are in the losing territory, we'll set up our new betting unit by adding one unit to the previous deficit and so on.

Example.

First 7-hand cycle: only 2 P singles and 5 P streaks = -3

For the next 7-hand succession we'll place a 4 unit bet stopping the play until we erased the previous deficit but letting the 7-hands going into completion without betting.
We know that the math probability to win is always 93/35, so strongly shifted at our favor.
Anyway say that despite the math, also the second 7-betting sequence will get us a -3 final deficit, so now we're behind 3 units (first 7-hand sequence) plus 12 units (the actual sequence).
So our new standard unit will be 16 units.
And so on.

In the example posted, we got just 4 P singles and 10 P streaks but arranged in negative (for us) permutations.

The favourable three-fold propensity cannot be disregarded for long, the problem is that we have to employ a large progressive bankroll to 'cover' the negative natural variance.

So we may use the 'clustering/isolated' effect to try to reduce variance (and disboursement), hence we'll bet toward a P single: a) at the start of the shoe, b) after a previous P single came out and c)after a previous (single) P streak came out.
Now long P singles are always good, P streaks followed by a P single are good and of course clustered P streaks will get us a way lesser damage than stubbornly wagering against them.

Let's take shoes randomly from our datasets.
S= P single and R= P streaks (runs)

1- S,R,S,S,S,S,S,R,S,S,R,R,R,S,R,R,S,S,S,R

(+ - + + + + +) (- + + - - - -) + + -

First 7-hand sequence got a W, second 7-hand sequence got a W (-++).


2- S,S,R,S,R,S,R,S,R,R,S,S,R,R,R,S,R,S,R

(+ + - + - + -) (+ - - + - - -) + -

Two W.

3- S,S,R,S,R,S,R,S,S,R,S,R,S,S,S,S

(+ + - + - + -) (+ + + - + + +) +

Two W

4- R,R,S,S,S,R,R,R,R,R,S,R,S,S,S,S,R,S

(- - + + - - -) (+ + + - +)....

First sequence got -3 L and the second one a W.

5- S,R,S,R,R,S,S,R,R,S,S,S,S,S,R,R,S,R,R

(+ - + - - + -) (- + + + + - -) -

W and W.

6- R,R,S,S,S,S,R,R,R,R,S,R,S,R,R,S,S,S

(- - + + + - -) - + - - + +

Despite of having 4 losses and 3 wins we'll collect a win at the first 7-hand sequence.

7- S,R,R,R,R,R,R,S,S,S,S,S,R,R,R,S,S,S,S,S

(+ - - + + + +) - + + + +

A W.

8- R,R,R,S,R,R,R,S,S,S,R,S,S,S,R

(- - - - + + -) + + + -

Finally a -3 L.
Now we have to raise our standard unit (so our new bet will be 4)

9- R,S,S,S,R,R,R,R,S,S,R,S,R,R,R

(- + + + - - +) - + - -

A W, so we go back to our 1 unit.

A note: arrange the + and - signs in the most bad sequence and in the worst scenario you won't be behind more than 1 bet.

10- R,R,S,R,R,R,R,R,S,S,S,R,R,R,S,R,S,S,R

(- - + - - + +) - - - + + -

It's a -1 unit L, so new bet will be 2 units.

11- R,R,S,R,S,S,S,S,S,R,R,R,R,S,S,R

(- - - + + + +) + - - + -

A W. So going back to the initial unit.

12- S,R,S,S,S,R,S,R,S,R,S,R,S,R,S,R,R,R,R

(+ - + + + - +) (- + - + - + -) + - - 

A W at the first 7-hand sequence and a -1 L at the second one.
So we'll raise our bet at 2 units for the next series.

13- S,R,R,R,S,R,S,S,R,S,S,S,S,S,R,S,R,R,S,S

(+ - - - + + -) (+ + + + + - +) - - +

A W at the first 7-hand sequence (even by accounting the worst permutation the final loss would be just -1 unit); second sequence is just a piece of cake and recovering easily the first sequence loss.

14- R,R,S,R,R,S,S,S,S,R,S,R,S,R,S,S,S,R,S,S.

(- - - - + + +) (- + - + - + +) + - + +

First sequence is a -1 L; second sequence bet by a 2 unit was a winner just at the final 7th hand.

15- S,R,S,R,R,R,S,S,S,S,R,S,R,S,R,S,S,S,R,S,S

(+ - + - - + +) (+ - + - + - +) + + - + +

W and W. At both sequences there was no way to lose a dime as + > -, so no 'bad' permutations couldn't come out along.

Comments

This 'basic' plan relies upon several distinct math and statistical features:

- RVM definition of randomness;

- Marian V. Smoluchoswki 'probability after effects' studies;

- The baccarat very slight general propensity to get the opposite result already happened;

- Marigny De Grilleau works;

- The math solid assumption that B>P.

- Other issues considered worthless (fortunately) I don't want to discuss here for obvious reasons.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 17, 2023, 01:09:43 AM
More shoes taken randomly from our live bac samples:

S,R,R,S,R,R,R,S,S,R,S,R,S,S,R,S,S,R,S

(+ - - - - + +) (- + - + + - +) + - +

First 7-hand sequence: ok, easy 'lucky' W, yet we couldn't be any worse than losing just 1 unit.
Second sequence got a W at 5th hand)

S,R,R,S,S,R,S,S,R,S,R,S,S,R,S,R,S,R

(+ - - + + - +) (+ - + - + + -) + - + -

No 'lucky' spots here: both 7-hand sequences got a 4/3 WL ratio. So two Ws and at the very first betting spot.

R,S,R,R,R,R,S,S,S,S,R,R,S,S,R,S,S,R

(- + - - + + +) - + - + + -

A W at the 7th hand

S,R,S,R,R,S,R,S,R,S,R,R,R,R,S,S,S,S,S,S,R

(+ - + - - - +) (- + - - + + +) + + -

Again a fortunate win in a -1 overall permutations scenario. Second sequence got a W at the very end of it)

S,S,S,S,S,R,S,S,S,S,S,S,S,S,S,R,S,S,R,S,R,R

(+ + + + + - +) (+ + + + + + +) (+ - + + - + -) -

Easy wins

R,S,S,R,R,S,R,R,R,R,R,R,R,S,R,R,S,S

(- + + - - - -) - - +

Again we were 'lucky' as the -++ sequence got us winners but let's consider the more probable scenario where we have a -3 unit loss, so we'll raise our next bet to 4.

R,S,S,R,R,S,S,S,R,S,S,S,S,R,R,R,R

(- + + - - + +) (- + + + + - -)

First sequence is a winning one no matter the permutations. The same about the second one.

R,S,R,R,R,S,R,S,S,R,R,R,S,S,R

(- + - - - + +) - - + -

A -1 unit loss, so let's raise our new bet to 2 units.

S,R,R,S,R,S,R,S,S,S,S,S,R,R,R,S,S,S,R,S

(+ - - - + - +) (+ + + + - - +) + - +

A prompt W despite of the unfavourable WL ratio, second sequence is a piece of cake.

R,S,R,S,S,R,S,R,S,R,R,R,S,R,R,R,R,R,R,R,R

A pretty bad sequence as S=6 and R=15.

(- + - + + - +) - + - - - -

We win at hand #5.
Notice that such bad sequence produced 5 Ws and 8 Ls. So a gap of 9 (S6 and R15) actually got us just a -3 unit loss.

See you next week

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 17, 2023, 01:31:48 AM
Out of curiosity next shoes are:

S,R,S,R,R,S,R,S,S,R,S,S,R,S,R,S,S,R,S

(+ - + - - - +) (+ - + + - + -) + + - +

Win and Win.

S,S,S,S,R,S,S,R,R,R,S,R,R,R,R,S

(+ + + + - + +) - - - -

Win, maybe the - - - - streak could 'easily' come out at the very start of this shoe.
Nevertheless the W/L ratio is still 6/5.

R,S,R,R,S,R,S,R,R,S,S,S,R,S,R,R,R

(- + - - - + -) (- + + - + - -)

First sequence is a -3 unit loss, next sequence provides a W at third hand.
Let's assume the second streak wasn't in action, so our next bet will be 4.

S,S,R,S,R,S,R,R,R,R,S,R,S,R

(+ + - + - + -) - - + -

A W.
But since W=5 and L=6 and considering another 4 unit loss (so we're behind of 7 units) let's see what happens at a new 8 unit bet:

S,S,R,S,S,S,R,S,R,R,S,S,R,R,R,S,S,R,R

(+ + - + + + -) (+ - - + - - +) - -

A steady W at the first sequence, another W at the second one even if the WL ratio is 3/4.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on May 17, 2023, 04:30:45 PM
Thx Asym for all the details /examples.

I like your utilization of 7 event cycles.


In your post #796 above.

as:

"...2- On the other end, the less likely event or series of events show the obvious general propensity to come out isolated, yet they are way more affected by volatility than the above 'clusters' propensity as in some way they must catch up the 'normal' clustering effect.
After having studied large live shoes datasets we have reached the conclusion that it's better to 'chase' clusters than hoping to get 'less likely' isolated situations.  ..."

re: clusters

    I find your concept above critical to ones long-term success. An addendum thought regarding all things cluster--I also find that after catching a couple wins from said cluster it is beneficial to not keep looking for the same exact cluster or "grouping" (in that shoe). The initial concept is still valid in the residual of that shoe. However, the residual of that shoe now possess one less of the Previously Caught Cluster.






Continue On My Friend,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: ADulay on May 18, 2023, 08:33:22 PM
ASym,

  A very interesting read for sure.   

  I may have to go back to a much earlier time to make sure I understand your idea with as much comprehension as you have.

  AD
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 21, 2023, 10:27:35 AM
Thanks KFB and Adulay!!
Just finished a very long session , about 14 straight hours.

See you later

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 21, 2023, 08:42:19 PM
Quotere: clusters

--I also find that after catching a couple wins from said cluster it is beneficial to not keep looking for the same exact cluster or "grouping" (in that shoe). The initial concept is still valid in the residual of that shoe. However, the residual of that shoe now possess one less of the Previously Caught Cluster.

This is an excellent consideration ignored by the vast majority of bac players, one of the main reasons why they keep losing.

For example, it's very important that the 7-event cycle would start with a W or, at worst by a L followed by a W, yet those situations will be more likely whether the previous WL register applied to any of the 128 possible permutations have shown a kind of unbalancement toward Lx or LL.
The same about every other 'intermediate' WL 7-cycle succession that obviously can't show for long the same features.

We ought to remember that itlr P singles > P streaks, yet volatility will easily make many shoes to produce many P streaks at any point of our 7-event cycle.
So now the problem shouldn't be solved by chasing the mere number of P clustered singles but also by studying their 'shape' that more often than not continuously changes in its 'density'.

Moreover even a 'clustered' clustering effect is always in order, of course needing some shoes to be dealt: Now a FB approach will make the best of it without using any progression.

See u later

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 22, 2023, 03:35:57 AM
Why coin flip successions (EV=0) are unbeatable but baccarat EV- successions could be beatable?

There are several answers to this question, the main one relies upon the asymmetrical probability acting at every hand dealt as besides N9/N9, N8/N8, S7/S7 and S6/S6 points, every other hand will be hugely favorite to eventually win from the start. And this is due to the asymmetrical card distribution working per every shoe offered.

That's a quite of difference with a coin flip succession where the winning probability is always and endlessly symmetrical.

One could argue that we never know which side will be hugely favorite to win after two initial cards are dealt, but this is a completely wrong assumption as 'complex' patterns will help us to define the issue.

In poor words, most bac spots provide a kind of 0 sum (unbeatable spots), others are slightly shifted toward a precise outcome where math doesn't get any sensible role (for obvious reasons as itlr EV is mathematically negative).

Simplyfing, baccarat is just a matter of EV+ card distribution spots variance and where attempts to 'control' the vast part of EV- situations are worthless.
The clustering effect taken in its various forms is just one factor to take care of; there are other issues, some of them brilliantly discussed here by Alrelax and KFB in their posts.

I've chosen the simple P singles / P streaks problem just because is a kind of 'math' less disadvantaged' proposition where a sort of 'sky's the limit' (but unnecessary) plan will get the best of it.

Remember that casinos want you to guess the fkng unguessable whereas professionals like to 'guess' what is slight more entitled to win, at the cost of waiting and waiting and waiting.

So let's act as black jack card counters do with the paramount difference that at baccarat there is no need to bet a dime at the vast majority of EV- spots coming around (at black jack 88-83% of all hands dealt are EV-). At the same time giving a role to the actual card distribution.

Next samples are taken randomly from live shoes collected at various LV premises:

1- S,S,S,R,R,R,R,R,S,R,S,R,S,S,S,R,R,R,R,S,S,S,S,R,R

(+ + + - - - -) (- - + - + + +) (- - - - + + +) - -

W, W, L(-1)

2- S,R,R,R,R,R,S,R,R,S,S,R,S,R,S,S,S,S,R

(+ - - - - + -) (+ - + + + + -)

W, W.

3- R,S,S,S,R,R,R,R,R,R,R,S,S,R,R,S,S,R.

(- + + - - + -) - + -

W, -1 at the final uncompleted 7-event sequence

4- R,S,S,R,R,R,R,S,S,R,R,S,S,S,S,R,R,S,S.

(- + + - - + -) (- + + + - - +)

W, W.

5- S,S,R,S,S,R,R,R,R,S,R,R,S,S,R,R,R,R

(+ + - + + - -) - - + - -

W and a -3 uncompleted L cycle.

6- R,S,S,R,S,R,R,R,R,R,S,S,R,R,R,S,R,S

(- + + - + - -) + - - - +

W and a -1 uncompleted cycle

7- S,R,S,S,R,R,S,R,S,S,S,S,R,R,S,R,S

(+ - + + - - -) (+ + + - - - +)

W, W.

8- S,S,R,S,R,S,S,R,R,R,S,R,R,R,R,S,S,R,S,R,R,S

(+ + - + - + +) (- - - - + - +) - -

W, -3 L.

9- S,S,S,S,S,S,R,R,S,R,R,S,S,S,R,R,R,R

(+ + + + + + -) (- - - + + - -)

W, -3 L

10- R,S,S,R,R,S,S,R,S,S,S,S,S,R,S,S,S,R,S,R

(- + + - - + -) (+ + + + + - +) + - + -

W, W.

11- R,R,R,S,R,S,S,R,S,R,R,S,S,R,R,R,S

(- - + + - + -) - + - -

L -1 and another uncompleted L -2

12- S,S,S,S,S,R,S,R,S,S,R,R,S,R,R,R,S,S

(+ + + + + - +) (- + + - - - -) +

W, W.

13- R,R,S,R,R,R,S,S,R,R,R,R,S,S,R.

(- - - - + - -) + -

L -5 and an uncompleted 0 situation.

14- S,R,S,S,S,R,S,R,R,S,S,R,R,R,S,S,R,S,S

(+ - + + + - +) (- - + - - + -) + +

W, L -3. (To get things at the worst scenario, we'll ignore the uncompleted ++ sequence)

15- S,S,S,R,R,R,R,S,R,R,R,R,S,R,R.

(+ + + - - - -) - -

A W and an uncompleted -2 L

16- S,R,S,S,S,R,S,S,R,S,R,R,R,S,S,R,S,R,S

(+ - + + + - +) (+ - + - - + -) + - +

W, W

17- R,S,R,R,S,S,R,S,R,S,S,S,R,R,R,S,S,S,S,S,S,R

(- + - - + - +) (- + + + - - +) + + + + -

L -1, W (and an uncompleted W sequence)

18- R,R,R,R,S,S,R,R,R,S,R,S,R,S,S,S,R,R,R,S

(- - + - - - +) - + + - -

L -3 and an uncompleted W sequence

19- S,R,R,R,R,S,S,S,S,S,R,R,R,S,R,S,S,R

(+ - - + + + +) - - - + + -

A W and an uncompleted -2 L sequence

20- S,R,R,S,S,S,S,R,R,R,R,S,S,S,S,S,S,S,S,S,R

(+ - - + + + -) (- + + + + + +) + + -

W AND W (and an uncompleted W sequence).

Despite that such randomly taken 20-shoe sample overall formed 696 B hands and 746 P hands (ties ignored), the P single vs P streak plan got no problems to endure the possible negative variance.
No matter how were the permutations. 

Again, if the less likely world keep happening, it will clustered shaped and after having surpassed the 1 cutoff value, we're not interested to chase a more likely propensity unless it comes out once.
Since we're stopping the betting at less likely situations coming out clustered but prolonging the more probable counterpart until it'll lose (or getting a kind of +1 ratio), we know to play with a kind of long term advantage.

It's quite easy to falsify this hypothesis: setting up the same plan by wagering the opposite: P streaks  vs P singles.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: Gizmotron on May 22, 2023, 12:35:54 PM
Quotere: clusters

    I find your concept above critical to ones long-term success. An addendum thought regarding all things cluster--I also find that after catching a couple wins from said cluster it is beneficial to not keep looking for the same exact cluster or "grouping" (in that shoe). The initial concept is still valid in the residual of that shoe. However, the residual of that shoe now possess one less of the Previously Caught Cluster.

Except for the global effect where a swarm of characteristics of the same type tend to swarm for an extended period of time. This is much less in Baccarat because there is only one grouping to compare too. The same holds true for Craps as well. In Roulette I utilize 6 simultaneous groupings at once. I can see the global effect when it occurs. Now others can see it too. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 23, 2023, 08:46:53 PM
Coin flip curiosities

Coin flip successions are unbeatable? Sure.

Does any coin flip pattern of the same lenght and different HT distribution have the same probability to appear by a 'time' factor? Nope.
That is some patterns are more likely to come FIRST than others, then obviously itlr all patterns of the same lenght will equal.

See you later.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 24, 2023, 01:33:24 AM
In a famous experiment (Confessions of a Coin Flipper and Would-be Instructor) C. Konold found out (contrary to the 'expert' common belief, including him) that after a fair number of coin flip trials the HTHHT sequence will invariably come out first vs the HHHHH succession, despite both patterns have the exact (theorical) same probability to appear.
His purpose was to emphasize one of the many Gambler's Fallacies affecting our brain, that is our 'overalternating' way of consider binary random outcomes.

Thus if you find someone willing to face your 1:1 bets where you'd bet that HTHHT sequence will come out FIRST than the HHHHH sequence, you'll get the sure EV+ side.

Obviously itlr every 5-hand coin flip pattern will come out with the same values (but by different frequency), otherwise gambling games wouldn't exist.
Moreover we won't find a game where all intermediate "no win/no lose" patterns will get us a neutral situation before getting a W (HTHHT coming out first) or a L (HHHHH showing up first).

Anyway, it's natural to think that if the HTHHT sequence will come out FIRST than the HHHHH sequence, many other heterogeneous patterns will follow the same propensity.

More importantly is the fact that along the way the HHHHH sequence getting the same 1/32 other pattern's probability to appear must 'catch up' in some way this 'deficit'. And of course it can do that just by coming out 'clustered', that is by a W/L ratio greater than 1/32.
This calls into question, albeit by an 'opposite' way of thinking,  the 'probability in decline' feature already discussed here.

it's just a matter of 'time', huh?


as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on May 29, 2023, 03:03:31 AM
I had to cancel my last post as it was too confusing.

Obviously HTHHT (and every other heterogeneous patterns) will tend to come out first than HHHHH as any T result will make the HHHHH (and every other superior homogeneous pattern) to restart the process, even though itlr HTHHT=HHHHH that is patterns having a 0 sum.

We have seen that by betting the very first and second spot of any shoe towards singles or doubles  and arranging them in clusters could be the basis to set up a plan.
It's not important the actual 'lenght' of 1/2 vs 3+s or the lenght of the 'isolated' 3 streaks,  we should only be focused about the minimum 'clustering' effect that is 1.

Then any cluster of more probable events (1/2) coming out 'first' will be in turn and more often than not, followed by another cluster of the same class. (And again the value to look for is 1).
Deeper is the process of registering such events distribution and greater will be our probability of success.

Just in case and as a form of additional (but needing a very large bankroll) tool, we might adopt the progressive 7-cycle betting where per every sequence 93 out of the possible 128 patterns are winning and just 35 of them are losers.

Summary.

For simplicity let's continue to take care just of the first and second 'events' coming out per every shoe dealt.
Any single or double is a W and any 3 streak is a L.
Itlr W=L (actually and assuming singles as neutral at both sides, there's a very slight propensity to get more doubles than 3 streaks, so W>L...before vig of course) but things change in terms of distribution.

Since we need three Ws to 'balance' one L, we'll just wagering one time at WW vs WL and LW vs LL situations.

Anyway even those WW and LW situations will be distributed by clusters coming out first, so WW(L..)WW and LW/LW or LW(W)LW events are arranged by following their propensity.

It's true that this kind of 'cluster plan' won't exploit properly long W successions, but at the same time 'bad' very unlikely but possible situations as WLLLLLWLLWLLL (just three singles/doubles and ten 3 streaks distributed by this exact combination) will make a minor damage, that is 6 consecutive two-step losses instead of a cumulative -27 unit loss).
If we would adopt the 'second level' clustering effect, there are just 4 consecutive two-step losses (WLLx and the second WLL).

Remember that the average number of 3(+) streaks is 9.5 and of course even if such streaks are concentrated at the very first and second patterns of each shoe, many permutations won't make sensible damages.

Many might think that such approach will just dilute the problem not solving it. They are right, from a strict mathematical point of view, sooner or later very unlikely sequences will come out to destroy this plan, but it takes several thousands and thousands of shoes dealt to cross this unfortunate situation. (It could happen tomorrow, the like a 28-30 B hand streak may come out)
 
Sadly we have more important reasons to face as the Global Warming Effect is giving us very few years ahead.
We have hit by chance the 78% N2, 21% O2 and 0.04% CO2 atmosphere 'jackpot', but we did everything and continue to do everything to waste it.
 
as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 05, 2023, 02:27:13 AM
Guessing and playing the probabilities

IMO at baccarat there's nothing to guess or hope for, just making ourselves in the best position to grasp the probability spots where a so called 'independent' and finite world should produce more likely situations acting at various levels of probability.

Obviously in some way such statement must negate the perfect 'independence' of the outcomes, yet we've seen that even at coin flip successions where itlr A=B, some A patterns are more probable to come out first than some B patterns.

An easy corollary of that is that B 'slower' patterns sooner or later MUST come out clustered in order to catch up their 'temporary' more normal deficit.
We do not know the precise situations when this thing will happen but we do know that it will surely happen.

A good rule of thumb not to be ever forgotten is that the more we're trying to 'guess' or 'hope for' greater is the probability that our money will fall into casino's pockets, as no matter how smart we're or sophisticated is our plan, every single bet is still math EV-.
So we need a quite strong 'probability' plan capable to lower, erase or invert the constant unfair payement we're facing at every bet we'll place.

In poorer words, educated 'probability' possibly working at our favor cannot be increased by a simple MM plan as it must be measured first by a strict FB approach.
And this FB edge comes out by over selecting the bettable spots that must overpass the 'normal' and the more likely negative levels of variance.

It's the same opposite assumption taken by casinos that would get 'miserable' profits by only exploiting their 1.25% or so math edge, instead constantly focused to let winning players to get the invariable losing streaks they're entitled to suffer if they're hopelessly guessing hands around any corner.

That's why a minimum profitable effect (MPE) applied to some events will put the casinos to hope for very unlikely clustered scenarios before getting our money.
If we've measured that MPE events > anything else, we're playing with a robust edge.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on June 05, 2023, 10:47:04 AM
You said:  "IMO at baccarat there's nothing to guess or hope for, just making ourselves in the best position to grasp the probability spots where a so called 'independent' and finite world should produce more likely situations acting at various levels of probability."



4). The Continuance.  Recognize and be totally conscious of the absolute fact, that as you continue your play you subject yourself to additional losses and wins.  The bridge between your exit point is a 'seesaw'.  (You remember that long wood plank with the two handles on it, in a kids playground it took two to ride).

5). Do not fight the perfect, which will squash most of all your chances to win the larger sums of money.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on June 05, 2023, 02:52:53 PM
AsymBacGuy:

"... in the best position to grasp the probability spots where a so called 'independent' and finite world should produce more likely situations acting at various levels of probability.

Obviously in some way such statement must negate the perfect 'independence' of the outcomes, yet we've seen that even at coin flip successions where itlr A=B, some A patterns are more probable to come out first than some B patterns..."

Finite/ Order

I find the concepts of the two words in bold very important for how we should view the overall outcomes. Its good for us to understand the finiteness(I call it approaching limits) of outcomes. Just as importantly the order( If an outcome occurs First), yet the total outcomes may still be near even. The order of events are very important.




Continued Success,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 06, 2023, 09:25:49 PM

Thx Al, please elaborate this concept

5). Do not fight the perfect, which will squash most of all your chances to win the larger sums of money.

Thanks in advance

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 06, 2023, 10:57:31 PM
Thanks KFB!

Finite/ Order

I find the concepts of the two words in bold very important for how we should view the overall outcomes. Its good for us to understand the finiteness(I call it approaching limits) of outcomes. Just as importantly the order( If an outcome occurs First), yet the total outcomes may still be near even. The order of events are very important.


I agree.

The 'order of events' is why we could beat this game as it's the principle of pure randomnness put at stake.

Besides of the minimal HE, casinos collect huge sums of money by relying upon the probability that players cannot win at random successions, meaning that everything is always possible by undetectable levels.

But the more we're restricting the field of operations greater will be the probability to get various random walks following a 'more probable' limited world.
The HTHHT vs HHHHH 'battle' coming out first is just an example and here we're talking about a perfect independent and random proposition.

That's why a very limited amount of wagers might greatly help us to define the issue as the 'order of events' must follow more probable lines.

In fact the average card distribution makes more probable some order of events, especially whether we're considering multiple results lines.
It's like the baccarat coin is somewhat biased, anyway not conceding us but a slight edge that must be grasped by statistical issues.

So if after 3000 hands played we haven't crossed a single 10 consecutive losing streak, we could be either on a fluke or be up on something.
After 10.000 of played hands, the same scenario could be named either a miracle or a sort of HG.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on June 07, 2023, 04:23:58 AM
QuoteThx Al, please elaborate this concept

5). Do not fight the perfect, which will squash most of all your chances to win the larger sums of money.

Thanks in advance

as.


In short, what I wrote not too long ago.  Bear in mind, most anything can turn into a 10-15-20 'something to be followed'.  $500 or $750 wager with a couple time parlay and then a constant pull-down only losing the last one as whatever it was, diminished for the discontinuing cut.  A nice chunk of change.  (And before I get chastised, no I do not endorse playing every hand attempting to capture it around the corner, but if it comes you embrace it and hug the perfect whatever.)

https://betselection.cc/index.php?topic=11573.0

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 11, 2023, 07:40:53 PM
Ok, thanks Al for your answer (I particularly like this passage: "but if it comes you embrace it and hug the perfect whatever")

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on June 11, 2023, 07:54:16 PM
QuoteOk, thanks Al for your answer (I particularly like this passage: "but if it comes you embrace it and hug the perfect whatever")

as. 

And what exactly is, embracing and hugging the perfect whatever? 

Let's refresh our visually enticed desires as well as our physically required wagered bets.  And that is, wagering on the winning hands, no matter what or how they happen to come about, what events are created by those as well as how long those events last and our ability to acknowledge those events have diminished.

Just a refresher.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 11, 2023, 08:37:28 PM
Winning and losing is a constant asymmetrical process made of multiple endless micro variations of the system

Despite of knowing that some rare bets will be slight EV+, in the remaining cases and considering a fair number of shoes dealt, there's no way to get 'a lot' of more W hands than L hands and neither to get a kind of 'balanced' W/L scenarios unless the 'time' factor will be inserted in our plan.
Obviously the issue is true even at the opposite way, that is we'll never get a lot of L hands than W hands (providing the same fair amount of shoes dealt).

Therefore itlr W=L, but more often than not micro variations make W>L and L>W just temporarily.

Anybody here knows how's easy to be ahead after few hands played and how is difficult to be ahead after 3, 4 or more shoes played.
The HE has almost no impact on such probabilities, actually casinos rely a lot more on the players   inaptitude to realize when the bac coin is unlikely 'biased' toward HHHHH than HTHHT patterns (just to utilize the above example).

The idea to try to reverse a L sequence into a W one is very hard to exploit and is always subjected to a high level of variance.
After all it's the strategy employed by the most part of bac players trying to get the best of it around any corner of the shoe.

See u later

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 11, 2023, 08:39:02 PM
Quote from: alrelax on June 11, 2023, 07:54:16 PMAnd what exactly is, embracing and hugging the perfect whatever? 

Let's refresh our visually enticed desires as well as our physically required wagered bets.  And that is, wagering on the winning hands, no matter what or how they happen to come about, what events are created by those as well as how long those events last and our ability to acknowledge those events have diminished.

Just a refresher.

+1

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 12, 2023, 02:36:12 AM
Anytime and anyhow you'll classify the outcomes (and you know the results to look for), the majority of W/L permutations will be produced as easy readable patterns.
In another way of thought, many patterns are supposed to come out first than others.

Obviously whenever the W/L ratio is roaming around the expected probability values, very few 'bad' permutations could come out along.
Nonetheless, a good exercise to master, IMO, is represented to always think about such bad permutations, that is what we would have done while facing on those scenarios.

Then, sure as hell, 'unlikely' situations are supposed to show up heavily (W=L, L>W at various levels), so clustered or intertwined with isolated 'more likely' W events despite of their 'low' probability to happen and we know this is a perfect natural thing.
Now the 'permutations' issue is reversed: Most part of permutations are negative, yet a smaller portion could be easily overcome by the statistical features discussed above.

Now the good or bad 'coincidental' permutations make a substantial role over our long term outcomes as what happened to be 'coincidentally' good or bad will transform into opposite lines as itlr W=L, even though by increasing the number of shoes played, W is slightly polarized toward the left side.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 12, 2023, 02:56:23 AM
Remember that whenever we properly place a 'time' factor, 'unlikely very very bad' successions cannot happen by any means, at least up to the point where shoes won't voluntarily be set to form ALL 3s or a huge predominance of 3s all of the time.
But being this the case, 'tourists' and very high stakes players (who give a lesser fk of what we're talking in this site) will destroy the game in a millisecond.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 14, 2023, 12:06:03 AM
Baccarat random walk(s)

Let's consider the 0.75% A probability vs the 0.25% B probability. It's a 'so called' symmetrical probability as itlr A=B, yet the A and B distributions are asymmetrically shaped in the vast majority of the times.

Take a 4 'event' sequence of W (p=0.75) and L (p=0.25) that could only form such patterns:

WWWW
WWWL
WWLW
WWLL
WLWW
WLWL
WLLW
WLLL

LLLL
LLLW
LLWL
LLWW
LWLL
LWLW
LWWL
LWWW

Of course 3/4 of the times we'll get the first eight patterns starting with a W and just 1/4 of the remaining times eight patterns starting with a L.

It's interesting to notice that by betting toward W clusters and L isolated events and adopting a 1-2 mini progression (vig ignored for simplicity) we'll get:

+4
+1
+2
-2
-1
-5
-6
That is a overall -7 unit loss

-3
-3
-6
-2
-5
-1
+2
+2
That is a cumulative -14 unit loss

This is a very difficult concept to grasp as obviously those 16 patterns get a quite different probability to happen, strongly shifted towards W rich patterns.
In an ideal world where the W/L ratio is 3:1, out of the possible scenarios (albeit getting a very different probability to appear) just WWWL, WWLW, WLWW and LWWW patterns will follow precisely the above 3:1 ratio. Yet among the four possibilities, the WLWW sequence will get us a -2 loss (-3 and +1).
The remaining three cases are: WWWL (+1), WWLW (+2) and LWWW (+2).

In summary, the W clustering/L isolated strategy applied to sequences following the exact W/L 3:1 expected ratio will provide us 3 units of profit (minus vig).

Let's see what happens at the patterns where the number of W/L is 2:2.

Those patterns are: WWLL (+1, -3 = -2), WLWL (-3, +1, = -2) , WLLW (-3, -3 = -6), LLWW (-3, +1 = -2), LWLW (+1, -3, +1 = -1), LWWL (+1, +1 = +2).
Overall it's a -11 unit deficit but besides of the WLLW pattern, losses are restricted within the -2 limit.

Then there are the W/L 1:3 sequences and they are: WLLL (-6), LLLW (-3), LWLL (-2).
Again only WLL(L) sequence got us a -6 deficit.

Finally the homogeneous W or L patterns where WWWW (+1) and LLLL (-3).


Splitting outcomes in four 'events' categories was just an example, we have learnt that an asymmetrical (and unrandom) system remains asymmetrical independently of the precise spot chosen to be bet or considered.
For example, if the previous shoe had dealt a L in the examined spot, odds remain to make more probable a W than another L and the same is true about a single W towards getting another W (so forming a W cluster).

In the endless 'random' sequences we'll have to face, the W/L 3:1 patterns must take the more probable platykurtic curve where we are strongly favorite to win.
Of course there are harsh negative outliers and they are: WLLW and WLLL sequence; no other patterns 'rich' of L can get us a stronger damage, that is going too far from our expected more likely scenario.
Fortunately such bad situations ar quite 'balanced' by 'occasional' W coming out independently of the shoe we're playing at as 75 is always more likely than 25.

See u next week for a an interesting strategy I've recently been aware of.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 14, 2023, 01:24:48 AM
Today is 06/13/2023 so I'll randomly take from my datasets the 6th and 13th 'event' of each shoe of the 2023-2032 ten shoes sample.

1)  WL
2)  WW
3)  LW
4)  WW
5)  WW
6)  LW
7)  WW
8)  WW
9)  LW
10) WW

So the sequence is: WLWWLWWWWWLWWWWWLWWW, that is a -++++++++ sequence (too good, probably!)

Let's take of the same sample the 5th and 12th 'event' (one event back):

1)  WL
2)  LW
3)  LW
4)  LW
5)  WW
6)  LW
7)  WW
8)  LW
9)  WW
10) LL

So the sequence is WLLWLWLWWWLWWWLWWWLL = ---+-++++++-

Now the 7th and 14th events (one event forward):

1)  WL
2)  WW
3)  WW
4)  WW
5)  WW
6)  LW
7)  WW
8)  WL
9)  WL
10) WL

So it's WLWWWWWWWWLWWWWLWLWL that is a -+++++-+- succession

Not a recent good run at final W clusters, so we'll take the 2033-2042 shoes sample just at the original 6th and 13th spots (that already got us a steady profitable succession, so somewhat fearing a kind of 'balanced' negative factor)

1)  WL
2)  WL
3)  WW
4)  WW
5)  WW
6)  WW
7)  WW
8)  WW
9)  WW
10) WW

It's a WLWLWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW sequence. That is a  -+-++ sequence
Notice that W isolated came out four times consecutively isolated (considering the previous sample). It's a very very unlikely scenario yet balanced by the L isolated patterns. 
In addition, by just playing towards W clusters we'll waste the opportunity to win at the interminable final W succession. But itlr by hoping to get the minimum level of W cluster we'll save a lot of money.

Again let's see what happens at this new shoes sample by spotting 5th and 12th 'event'.

1)  WW
2)  LW
3)  LW
4)  LW
5)  WW
6)  WW
7)  LL
8)  WL
9)  LL
10) WW

So it's a WWLWLWLWWWWWLLWLLLWW = ++-+-++---+.

Now the 7th and 14th events spots:

1)  LL
2)  WW
3)  LW
4)  LL
5)  WW
6)  WW
7)  LW
8)  WL
9)  WW
10) LW

It's a LLWWLWLLWWWWLWWLWWLW succession = -++--++++++.

'Fortunately' such results cannot be labeled as suspicious as L>W and in one occasion (first 6th/13th sample) Ws were distributed in the worst possible way (according to the plan we're talking about).

But there are still many issues to take care of regarding the probability of success.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on June 17, 2023, 12:50:54 AM
Hi AS --good essay

"..Splitting outcomes in four 'events' categories was just an example, we have learnt that an asymmetrical (and unrandom) system remains asymmetrical independently of the precise spot chosen to be bet or considered.
For example, if the previous shoe had dealt a L in the examined spot, odds remain to make more probable a W than another L and the same is true about a single W towards getting another W (so forming a W cluster)...."[/color]

Can u elaborate on this part. Thx in advance.


Continued Success,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 18, 2023, 09:13:45 PM
Hi KFB and thanks.

It's a very simplified concept related to a random walk working at a random (unbeatable) environment  and at a unrandom (beatable) environment where we still do not know which lines will be more probable to show up.

Since the winning or losing probability is symmetrical at random sequences but asymmetrical at unrandom sequences, we may get a better picture of the endless successions volatility just by 'randomly' betting some events by a 'time' factor decided objectively and not subjectively.

More on that later

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 19, 2023, 02:47:23 AM
Btw our approach, albeit being strictly based upon long term datasets, might not be the best method to beat this game. Alrelax and KFB (among few others) have presented very interesting and in some cases pivotal ideas to play with a kind of advantage.
But it takes a fair amount of experience to know what to do in the intricate situations (that constitute 90% of bac circumstances). And of course 'no betting' is only a partial 'best move'.

Variance

Variance is both a 'quantity' and a 'quality' issue; whereas quantity is impossible to 'forecast',  quality is more affected by dependent variables as any shoe dealt will be the by product of an asymmetrical card distribution where key cards play a huge role over the final outcomes.
Not every time but most of the time. 

In the vast majority of the times, casinos collect their huge profits by exploiting the players' "variance's quantity' Fallacy, that is their 'hope' that things will change very soon while losing and that things will stand for long while winning.

Technically speaking it's just a 'permutation' issue that has very little to share with the HE.
Unfortunately most players don't give a damn about the 'permutation' issue, hoping for endless profitable situations.

We've seen that the permutations tool will affect the 7-step progression cycle, as per each cycle considered, out of 128 possible patterns 93 are winning and just 35 are losing.

More interestingly is the fact that by raising the probability of success, the probability to cross favourable situations considered by a 'quality factor' will be more and more predominant.
Up to the point where after a given rare deviation, our edge will be astoundingly high.

See you ina couple of days.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on June 19, 2023, 06:21:58 AM
QuoteBtw our approach, albeit being strictly based upon long term datasets, might not be the best method to beat this game. Alrelax and KFB (among few others) have presented very interesting and in some cases pivotal ideas to play with a kind of advantage.
But it takes a fair amount of experience to know what to do in the intricate situations (that constitute 90% of bac circumstances). And of course 'no betting' is only a partial 'best move'.

Variance

Variance is both a 'quantity' and a 'quality' issue; whereas quantity is impossible to 'forecast',  quality is more affected by dependent variables as any shoe dealt will be the by product of an asymmetrical card distribution where key cards play a huge role over the final outcomes.
Not every time but most of the time. 

In the vast majority of the times, casinos collect their huge profits by exploiting the players' "variance's quantity' Fallacy, that is their 'hope' that things will change very soon while losing and that things will stand for long while winning.

Technically speaking it's just a 'permutation' issue that has very little to share with the HE.
Unfortunately most players don't give a damn about the 'permutation' issue, hoping for endless profitable situations.

We've seen that the permutations tool will affect the 7-step progression cycle, as per each cycle considered, out of 128 possible patterns 93 are winning and just 35 are losing.

More interestingly is the fact that by raising the probability of success, the probability to cross favourable situations considered by a 'quality factor' will be more and more predominant.
Up to the point where after a given rare deviation, our edge will be astoundingly high.

See you ina couple of days.

as. 

And how should a person handle Variance?

Maybe in the following way by learning and applying Neutralism?

Neutrality is the independence for your knowledge and experience, shy of any fallacy and desire, to make judgments and/or facilitate decisions independent of any bias (Fallacy-desire-supposed to be's) which you go along with, emphasizing on the process rather than the outcome.

It is rare but somewhat possible. But implies tolerance regardless of how disagreeable, unusual a perspective might be or not be. So, in neutrality decision making you will be expected to make judgments that are independent of any bias whatsoever, emphasizing on the process rather than the outcome. Why? Because the outcome is forming, But first the presentments and continued presentments must be made.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 20, 2023, 09:12:22 PM
That's interesting (I've read your whole thread on that), yet it's quite difficult to put some of those thoughts into practice, besides of a general 'emotional neutralism' attitude best accomplished after  several winning sessions and very few or 0 losing ones, a thing that it's very unlikely to happen for the most part of players.

Casinos treat baccarat the way really is: an endless series of 'finite' successions of binomial outcomes where it's virtually impossible to guess more winning hands than losing hands and not only because for each winning bet they unfairly pay 0.9894:1 or 0.9876:1.
In fact casinos are so sure about the impossibility to guess more right than wrong, that allow some very high stakes players to get 'rebates' (up to the point that losses are 50% decurted, for example).

Technically, casinos rely upon variance and not about the math edge.
But obviously math edge decreases the players' positive variance and at the same time worsen the players' negative variance.
So players profit lines will slowly be asymmetrically shaped toward the negative territory.

I like your 'consider the process and not the outcome' thought.
This thought could be interpreted in several ways, it would take a 1000 pages book to partially illustrate the many situations baccarat provides along the way. Yet it's an important feature to look for, IMO.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 20, 2023, 10:57:23 PM
Measuring the variance impact

We all know that by increasing the number of trials, both 'ideal' and 'terrible' situations will come out, yet even at a 50/50 coin flip situation some patterns are proven to show up first than others (Konold, Nickerson, etc).

Now we're posing the question about what can do an asymmetrical starting probability considered by certain 'more likely' patterns, well knowing that itlr a kind of 'exhaustion' and 'reversed situations' will take place.

Notice that if the probability of success will be homogeneously spread by exact probability values, our EV=0 (before vig) as per every 3 wins whatever distributed a single loss will balance the previous wins.

On the other end, odds to get a first W per every 4-hand sequence theorically are 3:1.
Actually and by taking advantage of the statistical features presented above (with many thanks to M.v. Smoluchoski), your bets are tremendously EV+.

Casinos can't do nothing about it, as long as there's a cut and a burning procedure (so discounting a very very unlikely illegitimate voluntarily card distribution negating this feature), probability after effects will get the best of it by a 1 billion of accuracy.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 27, 2023, 10:57:13 PM
HT patterns have the same long term frequency to appear but featuring a different rhythm of presentation

It's an obvious statement that makes 'unbeatable' any binomial production 'guessing'.
Casinos prosper about the 'uncertainty' of the outcomes offered, yet this uncertainty could be measured at least by interesting 'estimation' values that might shift the uncertainty world into a more detectable world.

If our 'estimation' really works and it's capable to overcome the HE, we'll play with an advantage otherwise we're simply belonging to the baccarat losers category (almost touching 100% of all players worldwide).

To realize whether we're fooling ourselves (or, worse, others) we need to test our strategy on very large samples, moreover by scrutinizing our results by simple distribution issues that have nothing to share with the betting amount we've employed unless belonging to the same category.

Therefore any unit class must get a long term W/L ratio, that is must win by flat betting, otherwise we should directly skip to the superior unit class which had demonstrated to be worthwhile. And so on.

In fact, there's no point to bet 1 if we know W=L and the same for superior betting classes.
So it's not the betting amount which cares, the W/L ratio does.

That is most part of the baccarat spots (W=L) are particularly susceptible of variance at either way: When we'll catch the positive side we'd think to play with an advantage and when we endure the negative side, we feel ourselves as unlucky or having made many wrong moves.

But the only pure wrong moves to make at baccarat are just represented by playing too many hands. 

Actually and besides of rare opportunities happening, the 'subjective' element cannot get any significant room to produce profits. After all the vast majority of players adopt this way of thought and we all know the results.

OoOoO

If you'd assign a +1 or -1 number to the innumerable back to back situations that bac provides, you'll see that no consistent values will overcome others, unless you set up 'limited' random walks movements.
Even by following this procedure, variance doesn't make 'easy' to get more wins than losses for the strong asymmetrical amplitude coming out from the card distribution, needing a fair number of decisions to detect what's is really more probable to show up at some point.
On the other end, what is supposed to be more likely by math remains more likely to show up, independently of the spot we've chosen to bet (then it could be taken randomly). 

So we may postulate that the 'uncertainty' is inversely proportional to the number of hands dealt.
What some authors name as 'RTM effect' or 'correction effect' and at the same time confiding that something is more likely to happen first by various reasons no matter what.

IMO it's the delicate (measurable) assessment of the aforementioned features that helps us to find the positive  or negative 'more probable' succession lenghts.

as.
 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on June 27, 2023, 11:56:07 PM
A book is coming, something as 'Asymbacguy on baccarat'.

It's a strict technical book where I'll present first all the theoretical ideas we've based our strategy upon, then the precise and step-by-step plans that worked for us after playing innumerable HS sessions worldwide.

A book for advanced players for sure, illustrating that it's very harsh to erase and invert the HE but it can be done.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on June 28, 2023, 11:55:39 AM
:thumbsup:  AsymBacGuy

"...yet even at a 50/50 coin flip situation some patterns are proven to show up first than others (Konold, Nickerson, etc)..."

A large part of my game is based on this concept. Along with compounding.

Thanks for referencing Nickerson above. Im more familiar with Nickerson than Konold. Both great researchers. I actually communicated with Nickerson via email a few years back regarding some of his other unrelated research.

Though he is now getting up in years. He was very prompt in responding and seemed like a super nice guy. I "think" he retired in early 2000 or so.

Of course, like many scientists that publish something about a coin flip or HT results they probably didn't anticipate Baccarat players would be reading/studying their fine research. :)


Continued Success,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 01, 2023, 09:09:46 PM
WOW, you exchanged e-mails with Nickerson! :thumbsup:

I agree with you that it's worth reading some coin flip published researches.

For example, Hahn and Warren and then Sun and Wang have clarified that the 'waiting time' is the longest for streak patterns. Yet the waiting time measures the average amount of delay in a pattern's appearance time and this differs from the frequency of occurrence of the pattern.

Some patterns present 'contradictions' when considering both the waiting time and the probability to show up first (Gardner).
Take THTH and HTHH patterns. THTH has a waiting time of 20 and HTHH a wating time of 18, yet the probability that THTH will appear sooner than HTHH is 0.64 vs 0.50.

On the same line, Nickerson (along with Gardner) stated that both HHT and HTT patterns have equal waiting times of 8, but HHT is expected to occur before HTT two thirds of the time.

Obviously such findings aren't directly related to the baccarat probability to encounter this or that first or later, mainly as the baccarat 'coin' is biased at the start and especially it's 'dynamically' biased for the ever changing card distribution that could be considered as 'neutral' just at the start of any new shoe dealt.

Whether previous patterns of the same shoe really have a slight effect over the next results is a more complicated issue that can't be disjointed by the general baccarat features coming out from large samples analysis.

More later

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 02, 2023, 02:50:46 AM
I mean that back to back patterns belonging to single shoes could be so biased (for a strong defect of random shuffling) to pose a real threat on our 'variance control' plan.
Single shoes being the fortune of recreational players but the nightmare for pros that for obvious reasons must confide on situations restricted within a wide yet 'affordable' range.

The fact that such rare 'single shoes' might symmetrically form profitable patterns (that is conforming too much with our plan) is not counterbalanced by the specular strong negative situations that put into the toilet our expectation.

It's like to toss a coin thinking it's unbiased whereas is harshly biased, but a single shoe cannot be a reliable source of consideration for obvious reasons.

Therefore it's way better to 'challenge' the system by spotting few positional events taken from endless shoe successions.
Yes, we need a kind of bias to succeed, but this must be limited in some way and at either way.

Naturally in the vast majority of the times what seems to be 'unnaturally' distributed at single shoe's Big Road will give spectacular successions at one of more derived roads and vice versa. But  the issue remains the same: We can't know what should be more likely to happen at a specific line,  unless that single line is considered after numerous trials and upon the same positional probability.
 
Casinos do not hope we'll lose or win 8 hands in a row so frequently, but they know we will.
Unfortunately what we had won after an 8 winning streak will be overcome by a specular 8 losing streak (for the vig or for the asymmetrical BP probability).
We have found that such situations happen more probably within a single shoe dealt.

As long as you consider patterns by taking care of multiple selected and different 'environments', probability to lose will be more restricted than at those (very rare) single shoes.

In addition and being the above conditions fulfilled, the more you'll wait for a unlikely deviation, higher will be your EV+.

as.     
 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 05, 2023, 03:11:48 AM
Talking about a possible EV+ without precise math findings is just saying that a Ferrari runs slower than a Jeep Wrangler, but actually it's the environment that makes the difference.

I guess nobody will pick up a Ferrari 812 Superfast to drive through a rough desert road and only a fool would choose a Wrangler to compete with the same Ferrari in a long flat asphalted road.

So it's not the car which makes the difference but the environment does.

If the enviroment, equally splitted in rough and flat situations, is supposed to be 'random' produced, no car choice will get us a kind of 'profit' unless short rough segments are overcome by the Ferrari and/or short flat segments make a minor speeding impact for the Wrangler.

The 'illusion' of controlling randomness by raising the POS (probability of success) may be worthless but it surely increases the 'complexity' feature.

Therefore if a A=B proposition is unbeatable, a Ax(A1+A2)=Bx(B1+B2) proposition could remain 'less' unbeatable, as the number of outliers is someway restricted, so more likely roaming around the 0 origin point.

At the same token, if both Ax and Bx present a slight restricted number of deviations, Ax/Ax clusters and Bx/Bx clusters must take the same properties but now by a greater level of 'complexity' than the previous step, and it's reasonable to think that the more complexity is involved greater will be our POS (whether carefully assessed).

Yet we have reasons to think that the productions are not perfect randomly offered, so more likely taking a kind of biased one sided 'undetectable' direction.

Obviously if something is 'biased' it'll more likely produce clustered events than isolated events, so we do not need a lot of time to realize the most (even transitory) line any shoe will take.
We've seen that a long 'alternating' events course is the least likely to happen, providing a decent level of patterns 'complexity' factor.

Of course the BPBPBP succession (and many alike) cannot belong to the 'alternating' category as lacking of the 'complexity' factor.

See u next week.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 09, 2023, 09:22:14 PM
At baccarat complexity is represented by numerous factors working together but at the end we just care about the destiny of our bet.

We know that some patterns are slight (or very slight) more likely to appear first than others, when not we may be interested to assess if they'd come out as 'second' (one losing step); in the event we missed both the first and the second attempt, we could reach the conclusion that the actual  'environment' doesn't fit the requisites making something 'more probable'.

In a word, we try to restrict and at the same time taking the best of the complexity by challenging a kind of binomial 'random' world to make 'too few' opposite environments along any shoe dealt.
Obviously when an environment had surpassed the empirical two step cutoff, we need a kind of 'signal' to stop (when profitable) or to restart (when unprofitable) the betting.

Recreational players and the vast majority of bac players hope that few environments appear for long in the same shoe or, worse, that the silence environment 'must' show up sooner or later and they try to force probabilities by increasing their bets.

Casinos confide upon the exact opposite thing: on average too many different (so short) enviroments are expected to show up making the baccarat outcomes a very volatile so unbeatable production.

That has almost nothing to share with the common notion to determine randomness by the number of runs.
But patterns runs are not the same as simple hands runs for a different complexity factor working, especially whenever we consider the clustering feature and back to back shoes.

It's of our interest to keep 'experts' to state that patterns runs will distribute with the same features than hands runs or that there are no valid points of intervention along any shoe dealt or series of shoes dealt.

More later

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on July 09, 2023, 09:59:22 PM
QuoteWe know that some patterns are slight (or very slight) more likely to appear first than others, when not we may be interested to assess if they'd come out as 'second' (one losing step); in the event we missed both the first and the second attempt, we could reach the conclusion that the actual  'environment' doesn't fit the requisites making something 'more probable'.


(And).......


But patterns runs are not the same as simple hands runs

as.



We need something to 'highlight' and 'showcase' to assist us with focusing and remove distractions galore, I.E. 'what has happened', useless info and stats that edge the casino and not the player.

Hint:  Sections.

https://betselection.cc/index.php?topic=11594.msg71272;topicseen#msg71272J
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 17, 2023, 01:02:29 AM
Al, it's a good thread indeed.
Personally I think that the'3-5 sections' per shoe is a too restricted (or too wide) range to consider but it could give the idea about how 'normally' bac things may develop.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 17, 2023, 08:44:25 PM
Betting frequency

It's an overlooked topic but probably one of the most powerful weapon that could transform a donator into a serial winner.


See you later

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 18, 2023, 02:13:26 AM
In trying to spot favourable patterns there's an optimal betting frequency based on math assumptions.
So 'waiting times' are related to the probability that some patterns will occur along the way of any single shoe.

Obviously we're talking about crossing the highest possible level of probability after a given waiting time occurred and not arguing on secondary pattern features, for example the lenght and the precise shape of it.

After all, baccarat players are wrongly focused to get something 'good' happening for quite long time whereas their primary task should be oriented to encounter a first appearance of a favourable  situation by relying upon math and statistical findings (as B/P outcomes are not mere coin flip results).

I mean that it's a waste of money to try to make a 'better choice' around any corner of the shoe as the 'better choice' is simply determined by math. Shoe per shoe, that is a serial probability dictated by math percentages.

Too many choices make the casino's fortune by increasing the volatility factor and the HE impact, it's a sure fact that recreational players quit the tables as winners by coincidence and not by a proper assessment of the bac results.

In a word, when we win 'too much' after one shoe or few shoes dealt, it's because we benefited from the chance and not for being smart.
And no one ploy in the world could prevent to get, sooner or later, a perfect symmetrical losing situation of the same density, moreover aggravated by the HE.
Therefore if we have been raising too much the BF, even while betting at seemingly endless winning spots, we're not doing us a favor.

See you tomorrow

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 18, 2023, 11:53:06 PM
By studying the baccarat betting frequency in relationship of the average card distribution, we have found that there's an optimal way to classify things, in a word that a given registration will make very predictable so affected by a very low level of variance the various results.

It's a kind of a new derived road but involving an asymmetrical albeit mechanical process where the registration pace varies.

Naturally a sort of binomial game will feature innumerable situations that sooner or later must strongly deviate toward one side of the action and of course this d.r. is affected by a fair degree of inaccuracy.

Yet it's the only strategic line that lured us to adopt a progression for the aforementioned variance reasons.

See you next week

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on July 19, 2023, 05:05:29 AM
as:
"...In a word, when we win 'too much' after one shoe or few shoes dealt, it's because we benefited from the chance and not for being smart.
 :)

And no one ploy in the world could prevent to get, sooner or later, a perfect symmetrical losing situation of the same density, moreover aggravated by the HE...."

I agree. Its this "tightness" in Bac that makes it a superior game to other even-chance games. Plus we may receive that winning situation first (regardless of ones skill or lack of).


Continued Success,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 23, 2023, 08:32:42 PM
Quote from: KungFuBac on July 19, 2023, 05:05:29 AM
I agree. Its this "tightness" in Bac that makes it a superior game to other even-chance games. Plus we may receive that winning situation first (regardless of ones skill or lack of).

Hi KFB!

That's the point.

At some extent baccarat works as poker does.

Loose players can only lose.

Loose-aggressive players lose itlr but may endure long winning streaks (illusion of winning)

Tight players control the game trying to get the math at their side but they could be prey of the best players.

Tight-aggressive players tend to get the best of it as they wait for the best opportunities and at the same time applying a lot of pressure, generally unwelcomed by the opponents.

Then there's the important 'first' scenario to look for... :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on July 24, 2023, 11:38:15 AM
Ways to combat:

"...In a word, when we win 'too much' after one shoe or few shoes dealt, it's because we benefited from the chance and not for being smart.

And no one ploy in the world could prevent to get, sooner or later, a perfect symmetrical losing situation of the same density, moreover aggravated by the HE...."


Key Point:  Wins are put into and divided into the 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd protocol.  Then your bankroll is governed by its beginning as well as one of the 1/3rds.  The other two 1/3rds should not used for gaming. 

The governance doing that equals advantage. 

But one must win.  Winning is extremely subjective and individualistic but the handling of money/wins is the downfall that sucks most all in to the negative.  IMO.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 25, 2023, 08:21:58 PM
Quote from: alrelax on July 24, 2023, 11:38:15 AMBut one must win.  Winning is extremely subjective and individualistic but the handling of money/wins is the downfall that sucks most all in to the negative.  IMO.

Very good sentence!

After a small number of hands played, winning is relatively easy. The problem is to keep those wins and quitting while ahead is the worst suggestion ever made in the history of gambling.
On the other hand, if we start losing quitting is not the answer and the worst strategy is to keep playing without 'stand-by' interruptions.

At baccarat positive and negative situations come out asymmetrically, so there are reasons to keep playing or to preserve profits at positive situations and there are more reasons to stop our action at negative situations that must be restricted at most.

The over alternating WL sequences are the least likely to happen so it's not that difficult to spot when a given W or L line will start to change then indicating when to bet and when to wait.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 25, 2023, 08:52:45 PM
Average card distribution (again)

Randomly shuffled shoes present many interesting features.
One of the most intriguing feature is to observe the initial two-card point sequences average lenght.

We know that the side having the higher two-card point will be strongly favorite to win and obviously such propensity is affected by a fair impact of variance on the final result.

Moreover the B drawing rules and the third card impact will make things harsher.

Finally, many hands provide a 'tie' initial point different from 9, 8, 7 and 6 adding more randomness on the final outcomes.

But at the end the player capable to spot more 'higher' two-card initial points than average will get a sure advantage and this task could only be estimated by the average lenght of 'shifting' situations, that is the number of runs.

More later

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 26, 2023, 02:27:20 AM
Let's summarize

Card combinations make more probable two-card runs of specific lenght up to the point that an average number of 'runs' will come out in relationship of how many runs had previously happened so far. 
Therefore B or P side could benefit of this paramount alternating factor by a quite detectable way, that's the main reason why baccarat streaks are shorter than coin flip or EC propositions.

The third card impact and the asymmetrical rule favoring Banker are just 'incidents' coming out along the way but itlr there's no stronger advantage than 'guessing' the side having the higher two-card initial point.

Actually runs of initial two-card points constitute 'limited random walks' getting values quite distant to a mere coin flip proposition.

Thus whereas it's impossible to estimate the specific lenght of two-card points sequences, it's particularly important to know how much a given sequence will stop (or prolong) on average, regardless of the final outcome.

The higher two-card initial point factor is so strong that in order to get a long term advantage on average we need to guess it just one time over three attempts.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on July 26, 2023, 04:33:55 AM
Thanks AsymBacGuy--Good points.


"...But at the end the player capable to spot more 'higher' two-card initial points than average will get a sure advantage and this task could only be estimated by the average lenght of 'shifting' situations, that is the number of runs...."

Can you clarify (or give an example) as I'm not clear on what you're saying.

Thanks in advance,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 31, 2023, 02:22:54 AM
Hi KFB!

Say that higher initial two-card points (HI2CP) cannot univocally fall for long at a given side, in fact most of the times longer BP streaks at either side need the third card favourable intervention.
When a HI2CP line changes side but the B/P result isn't consistent with the initial propensity, we should restart the process as now the underdog side (that won the last hand) is slight more likely to get a HI2CP of some lenght.
The process is hugely amplified when the Banker side had the luxury to get an asymmetrical hand that went 'wrong' for B.

Example.

Suppose that we have reasons to think that HI2CP sequences will get a shifting peak after 2/3 hands dealt (two card ties ignored).
If no third card(s) impact had altered the initial math propensity, that 'peak value' remains valuable to be followed so betting the opposite side is still a fair move.
Oppositely, any third card(s) impact altering the initial math propensity should be considered as a second-level condition erasing the process, thus needing at least 2 or 3 more hands (if fitting the requisites) to evaluate such HI2CP average distribution lines.

I mean that 'guessing' the side getting the HI2CP is the irreplaceable tool to get a long term edge as math could be disregarded in short situations (maybe by chasing some actual trends) but never ever in the long term.

Unfortunately guessing right the HI2CP spots (a perfect guessed spot provides an average 30% edge, then the probability decreases and obviously many points can't be detected) can endure harsh variance situations.
You can't do nothing when your B 5 point will succumb vs a 3 P point catching a 3 third card, or when your P 7 point will lose to a B 3 point drawing a 5 as third card.

Whenever you bet a given side you want to get the higher 2-card initial point within a restricted betting range, the rest (the actual result) belongs to recreational losing players.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 31, 2023, 02:51:11 AM
Notice that I'm not suggesting a mere 'antistreak' strategy, just to focus about the situations when something is proven to be slight more likely to happen by considering the average card distribution.

For example, the majority of long chopping lines aren't produced by a HI2CP 'hopping' distribution, somewhere the third card(s) had made a substantial role in forming such sequence.
The same about long streaks, especially at P side.

That's why most of the hands dealt aren't playable as they either do not reach the profitable cutoff values or after having reached that points sometimes they continue to abnormally deviate from the norm, a thing we shouldn't give a damn.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on July 31, 2023, 03:27:54 AM
Thx Asym for answering my question above in post#847. That makes sense.

Also, you mentioned: "...You can't do nothing when your B 5 point will succumb vs a 3 P point catching a 3 third card, or when your P 7 point will lose to a B 3 point drawing a 5 as third card.  ..."

My Q: Do you have any thoughts when B wins with one of its key favored hands: Drawing a two-card five/ choosing to not draw that third card, and getting the W.

    ?So do you view the remainder of the shoe as: There is now one less "two-card five scenario" available for B ?? 
"OR"  other viewpoints for the remainder of shoe re:  that "B two-card five scenario" ???


Thx in advance,kfb
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on July 31, 2023, 08:47:29 PM
?So do you view the remainder of the shoe as: There is now one less "two-card five scenario" available for B ??
"OR"  other viewpoints for the remainder of shoe re:  that "B two-card five scenario"


Hi KFB!

Yes, the number of asymmetrical hands favoring B is finite, so whenever one or more asym hands came out it's like that in the remainder of the shoe we're playing a closer coin flip proposition.
After all, when the number of asym hands is quite depleted and banker wins with naturals or standing points or points different than 3,4 or 5 (and the most powerful points for B are 5 and then 4), by wagering Player we're not losing anything or little.

This fact is particularly important at 'Lucky 6' tables where the HE is greater at B bets right  at the start.

More later

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 06, 2023, 08:58:49 PM
Worst and best scenario

Coming soon

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 07, 2023, 02:30:13 AM
You have built your best betting plan that in a way or another must endure the variance, so you should know what will be the 'best scenario' and, more importantly, the 'worst scenario' to face along the way.

It doesn't take to test millions of shoes, actually just a couple of thousands are sufficient to realize the average probability of those opposite scenarios happening.

Best scenario

Best scenario constitutes the positive outlier we should aim for, it's a kind of endless winning spots the actual shoe is producing.
Obviously we can't expect to win 75 straight hands, let alone more than 50% of total hands whether the betting range per shoe is large.
Thus the best scenario probability is inversely proportional to the number of hands played and directly proportional to the general probability of success.

So we know that 'tricks' oriented to get the least number of hands played per shoe and a fair probability of success utilized will both enhance the overall winning process.

More importantly, when the average betting frequency is quite low and the probability of success is greater than 50%, 'best scenario' shoes will surely happen by defined long term probabilities.
Now we have reasons to set up a positive progressive betting plan as sooner or later such scenario will happen.
Of course, shorter is the positive streak we should aim for, higher will be our winning probability and lighter is the positive progression greater will be the probability to be ahead even if the winning streak fails at some point before the end of the shoe.

Worst scenario

Even the best betting methodology ever invented sooner or later will fall into strong negative variance. It's the negative outlier where we can't do anything about that.

Good news is that a proper strategy makes worst scenario asymmetrically shaped with best scenario, meaning is slight less likely to happen.
Naturally HE is a constant burden casinos will profit from.

So the decisive paramount difference is that a valid long term strategy needs to encounter a slight longer positive succession than a proportional losing succession but this task can only be achieved by a proper 'clustering effect' evaluation, the same why HTHHT sequence = HHHHH sequence in frequency but different in rhythm of presentation.

Permutations and 'enemies density'

When the probability of success is >50% and the W/L ratio moves around expected values, there's an ideal more likely distribution (forming the best scenario) and intermediate situations where 'enemies' could come out clustered for quite long but conceding at some point(s) more room to the 'more likely' patterns.
So the permutations issue cannot give us any damage.

The problem arises when the slight less likely 'enemies density' strongly surpasses the normal ratios.
We'll see that in a couple of days.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on August 07, 2023, 04:25:59 AM
Hi AsymBacGuy. Perfectly worded.

...So we know that 'tricks' oriented to get the least number of hands played per shoe and a fair probability of success utilized will both enhance the overall winning process.

...More importantly, when the average betting frequency is quite low and the probability of success is greater than 50%, 'best scenario' shoes will surely happen by defined long term probabilities.
Now we have reasons to set up a positive progressive betting plan as sooner or later such scenario will happen.


...Of course, shorter is the positive streak we should aim for, higher will be our winning probability and lighter is the positive progression greater will be the probability to be ahead even if the winning streak fails at some point before the end of the shoe.

:nod:
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 08, 2023, 08:37:18 PM
Hi KFB, I'm a careful reader of your posts too  :thumbsup:

Why we should win at baccarat EV- game

The fact that our B bets are unfair payed and P bets involve a slight less than 50% probability to appear are not the main reasons why baccarat players make casinos' fortune.
As long as the results don't reach the negative outlier line, there are dozens of betting schemes (several of them invented more than a century ago) capable to erase the HE by progressive betting.

Unfortunately those strong negative situations will surely happen destroying every progression ever invented.
Not necessarily a "strong negative situation" is a endless streak of losses; there are many systems working toward a back to back series of wins (for example just two) or 'positional' progressive wagering as the system I've proposed here (7 series).

The natural element of binomial successions is just to provide 'unguessable sequences', especially  if we're trying to guess this or that per every hand dealt.

In this way we are forced to work about the bet selection, considered worthless by mathematicians but not by some acute bac players.
IMO, there's nothing to guess or hope for, just to understand that some events (positive or negative according to the specific plan we have adopted) must happen at different levels of probability.
Greater is the level of probability to encounter some happenings, higher will be the probability of winning and greater is the intervention field higher will be the level of confidence to get some patterns and not others.

Of course when we talk about 'probability' we're not talking about certainty, so even the best plan in the world could suffer an inevitable crash, the like every airplane in the world isn't 100% sure to land safely.

General probability and actual probability

See you later

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on August 08, 2023, 09:11:56 PM
Like your summation:

"General probability and actual probability",

How about if we say—General Probability = Actual Probability = Doability.  ??
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 09, 2023, 02:44:46 AM
Hi Al!!

IMO, general probability (GP) accounts for what I'm expected to cross after having registered a fair large sample of data. Not millions of useless shoes data as in practice I'm moving around more 'humanly' terms (as you correctly stressed many times here).

The actual probability (AP) is how things are developing in the actual shoe dealt, but someway I have to compare the GP with those results as the shoe I'm looking at may easily belongs to the 'outlier' category I can't do anything about.

We know that just one hand could transform a double-single-double sequence into a 5 streak, thus breaking our single-double plan.
It's true that the reverse situation might happen, that is a 'natural 5 streak' breaking into singles and doubles. But itlr the former scenario is slight more likely to happen than the latter for card distribution issues.

What I'm trying to say is that unless we got a large experience to exploit 'actual shoes strongly deviating from our plan' we better constantly take one side of the things and that means to wait and approximate at best the GP/AP results ratio, the higher the better.

In fact, when the GP/AP tends to be low or very low, we have no reasons to chase a 'more likely course of action', we should consider that shoe as 'unplayable'. The same as bj players do when the count is negative.

To do that we have to employ simple distribution issues that have no guarantee of infallibility but increase our winning probability without falling too much into the negative outliers field.

Best strategy to employ is to chase what we name as 'minimum profit goal', situations where 'more likely events' are entitled to come out clustered at least by 1 step.
More intricated is the situation where a negative event will be played as 'isolated' as being affected by huge volatility.

Therefore negative situations can't be compensated by long positive events unless the actual shoe belongs to the 'average' category.

So not chasing the positive when the negative seems to come out endlessly (or the positive is too weak to be exploited) it's a good start.

It remains to assess what to do when the positive streaks are naturally shaped to produce long sequences.
Now the minimum profit goal (MPG), fabricated to get the lower possible impact of variance, seems to be a too tiny aim to target so a light positive progression made with casino's money makes things more spicy (and profitable).

If the MPG should be chased by flat betting large bets, possible (and likely) positive long sequences after that bet must start with a smaller initial bet (usually 1/4 of the large bet so to secure a profit even in the most unfortunate scenario) then increasing the amount by some percentages.
Considering a 0.75 general probability to happen, we need just a slight better than 3:1 W/L ratio to play with casino's money and very often such streaks exceed the 8-10 lenght.
But never ever consider such positive streaks as a kind of 'recovery plan' on the previous losses accumulated at the main bet: they are just a bonus, a kind of jackpot.

After having read KFB, Alrelax and gizmotron posts, we have devised an algorithm capable to spot with a very good level of precision the distribution of the more likely occurences every shoe will present (by comparing GP and AP).

Of course all this is just bighorn.sh.it, baccarat is a unbeatable game by any means.  ;)

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 09, 2023, 02:57:24 AM
P.S: the more the so called gambling math experts keep stating baccarat is unbeatable, deeper we analyzed the processes why baccarat is beatable.

It's a public criticism toward 'smart' people who make a lot of bucks by selling poker tournament books where surviving 'coin flips' seems to be a necessary intelligent move to win.

cao ni ma

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on August 09, 2023, 10:53:23 AM
Huge advantages to us, but still (as I write) so many continue to play for what has won and lose, then go into the recoup stage).

As you said:  "Best strategy to employ is to chase what we name as 'minimum profit goal', situations where 'more likely events' are entitled to come out clustered at least by 1 step.
More intricated is the situation where a negative event will be played as 'isolated' as being affected by huge volatility."
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on August 12, 2023, 03:51:22 PM
Hi AsymBacGuy. I like the way you phrase the following thoughts.


"...In fact, when the GP/AP tends to be low or very low, we have no reasons to chase a 'more likely course of action', we should consider that shoe as 'unplayable'. The same as bj players do when the count is negative.

To do that we have to employ simple distribution issues that have no guarantee of infallibility but increase our winning probability without falling too much into the negative outliers field."...


"...Therefore negative situations can't be compensated by long positive events unless the actual shoe belongs to the 'average' category...."


I find it helpful to recognize the "unplayable" shoes early. I often call them "erratic" as these are shoes that don't seem to present anything with consistency/ several different themes. In other words, I can't seem to get "in sync" with the current presentments/ or I'm getting in sync as that current series is ending, ...etc.
In these situations, I hold up and watch (or wait for the next shoe).


Continued Success,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 13, 2023, 08:38:32 PM
Thanks for your replies!!

Even if we use some 'limited' random walks that itlr will define better the issue, and this thing can be accomplished because an 'average card distribution' exists, many "way beyond than average" shoes pose a real threat at our plan when too deviated negative successions come out.
Of course shoes not fitting for long to the average category could also be strongly positive for our plan, but they are (as the negative counterpart) relatively rare to happen.

In some way we should find two out of three situations to win: average distribution and strong positive distribution and putting them in (slight) asymmetrically and proportional relationship with strong negative distribution that will wipe out our profits or, worse, our bankroll.

We've found out that a kind of approximation algorithm could be the best way to deal with bac productions as results are not following a perfect 50/50 distribution and even if they seem to be, they tend to distribute asymmetrically shaped in rhythm (see Nickerson, Konold, etc studies).

Quite interestingly the algorithm will suggest us (whether proper situations are encountered) to bet B and P by an equal frequency, putting at the same level the general math propensity with the actual distribution.

More later

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 15, 2023, 09:50:29 PM
Positive outcomes propensity

Everybody knows that since B>P, itlr there will be patterns containing more B than P, of course this math propensity doesn't help us too much.
 
Since our algorithm dictates to wager B and P sides by the same frequency, it means that it was built by putting together some 'conflicting' features having a slight different weight in relationship of the actual patterns distribution. Of course privileging the most likely general 'average card distribution'.

In fact, in order to beat any game we must get a slight but constant propensity to get this or that capable to bear the variance burden and naturally to erase and invert the HE.

A slight positive propensity remains a slight propensity, verified in frequency but volatile in rhythm presentation, especially if the shoe doesn't seem to belong to the 'average' category.

But we were particularly happy to observe that the negative situations featured a constant propensity to come out clustered at some levels (thus more clustered than expected), so the problem was:

a) are those negative spots a sign of an 'unplayable' shoe (shoe deviating too much from the average distribution?)

b) are those clustered negative situations making more room to subsequent positive patterns?
And if this is the case, when to restart the betting?

After having tested several thousands of shoes the answer was to take the 'caution side', so instructing the algorithm to stop its action for that particular shoe.

So when things seem to fall into the positive side from the start the probability to get ALL winnings is not 1 but sooner or later will be 1.

On the other end and since the algorithm finds a fair amount of all wins shoes, even a single negative spot coming out at the start or close to it will break this expectancy for an inevitable 'RTM' effect.

It's obvious that all the intermediate processes itlr will get us a slight profit but since the rule at this game is to lose and to navigate the uncertainty ocean, we should aim to get the minimum profit goal all of the time, even if after a strong negative period things suddendly go to our favor.

Casinos take countermeasures

You won't believe me, but after getting an endless series of profitable sessions (where other players at the table made huge bets by following us), one casino started to reshuffle manually the already machine shuffled shoes.
They even tried to see if we were using some edge sorting technique (LOL) as two shoes were used alternatively and cards are allowed to be peeked by players.
We were just lucky to get a higher than average amount of 'all wins' shoes, that's it.

For some (natural) reasons such shuffled/reshuffled shoes provided us a cumulative small loss and the procedure is still utilized at this casino (inevitably lowering their profits).

I'll inform you about our next sessions.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 16, 2023, 03:03:22 AM
Get rid of your gambling attitude before thinking to play baccarat successfully

Whereas at poker an educated gambling attitude may transform a good player into a great player, at baccarat gambling must be completely tossed through the toilet with no exceptions.
We've lost a lot of money before realizing that and best baccarat players we know did the same thing.

The edge exists but under normal circumstances will be quite small. Sometimes the edge merges with the normal positive distribution, so luring us to bet too many hands or to improperly increase a lot the betting amount.
Think that when the edge suffers the negative variance, the natural negative distribution might add up then making a stronger impact over our results.

For example, when we'd unwisely think to suddendly double our standard bet, we should understand that never ever our edge will be doubled.
Differently than black jack where our edge is mathematically ascertained (and proportionally related to the actual count), at baccarat we are just approximating our winning probability by statistical features needing some time to show up.

The algorithm cannot give a lesser damn about how 'we're feeling lucky', the way was devised just suggests optimal (imperfect) choices considered after having tested large LIVE samples.
It hopes for the best but expecting the worst and itlr (but even at short/intermediate terms) best < worst for the HE.

IMO best MM to exploit a small edge is to selectively wager huge amounts at very few spots (a kind of 'Bold strategy') or to slowly increase moderate amounts by tiny percentages at supposedly more likely positive occurences (KFB made brilliant examples about that).
And Alrelax pointed out that it's wiser to 'press' the bets at the earlier stages of a positive pattern. 

Algorithm takes care of what should be the most likely B/P occurence, the risk/award ratio is up to us.

See you next week, I'll present you how's the algorithm betting frequency per shoe.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on August 19, 2023, 03:27:10 PM
Thx for post above Asym.

"...IMO best MM to exploit a small edge is to selectively wager huge amounts at very few spots (a kind of 'Bold strategy') or...

And Alrelax pointed out that it's wiser to 'press' the bets at the earlier stages of a positive pattern...."

I agree that if one chooses to live/die with a pospro then one should make their primary press earlier vs later. I'm a firm believer that much of our war with the casino is won by what the bettor is doing between wager #1 and wager #2. For we shall see the same length of Ws(and Ls) streaks, regardless of the size of our bet.


Continued Success,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 20, 2023, 07:33:27 PM
Hi KFB, thanks for your reply!

I'm a firm believer that much of our war with the casino is won by what the bettor is doing between wager #1 and wager #2. For we shall see the same length of Ws(and Ls) streaks, regardless of the size of our bet.

I can't agree more on that!  :thumbsup:

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 20, 2023, 09:09:42 PM
Winning spots are not extracted from 'creative' strategies just coming out of probabilities


Each shoe distribution is not affected by past shoes distributions as the probabilities we're looking for are determined by the constant 'average card distribution'.
The algorithm simply takes care of the most likely distribution lines every shoe must take along the way.

The interesting part of the algorithm action is that same patterns could be positive or negative in relationship of its actual rhythm and of course this rhythm is mechanically scheduled and based upon the average shoe.
In a word, this algorithm works toward a kind of 'results alignment' that must happen at various levels of probability and not toward precise patterns that are always considered as 'good' or as 'bad'.

Obviously the 'positive' attempts of alignment are slight greater than the 'negative' attempts and that's where the edge comes from.

The beauty of this plan, besides of its verified edge, is that the algorithm starts its classification action by the very beginning of the shoe where some cards are 'randomly' burnt before the results start flowing.
Thus even if the casinos know what the algorithm is really looking for, it's virtually impossible for them to deal results not belonging to the 'more likely' probability aspects for long.

Another important aspect involves the possibility to set up the algorithm among different risk/reward categories so dictating the bet selection frequency and, less important, the betting amounts utilized.

See you later

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 21, 2023, 03:40:52 AM
Average algorithm's betting frequency

Since one or more same specific patterns might be good or bad in relationship of 'when' we're classifying them, our algorithm makes the best efforts to 'align' them around the more probable average card distribution giving a lesser bighorn.sh.it about single hands, thus considering the process as a 'whole'.

Obviously such process will produce asymmetrical results, meaning that itlr (but even in the intermediate terms and in the vast majority of short terms) a slight greater amount of positive scenarios will overcome the negative counterpart so getting us an edge.

Hold on.

Mathematicians and gambling experts will say to you that every single hand is burdened by the negative HE no matter how's sophisticated our strategy.
But they've made the fatal error of considering baccarat productions as a kind of an independent undetectable world comparable to a coin flip succession, giving an obvious less negative role to the B side math propensity.

The average situations where B side is really advantaged and by how much were only presented by a keen baccarat expert and not by a mathematician considering them worthless.

The algorithm was and is proven to be wiser than those math pundits as it does consider an optimal play extracted after thousands and thousands of live shoes dealt, not after rattlesnake.s.h.it simulations made with some softwares.

At the end the algorithm considers B=P, because it's more important to be right at a series of probable hands belonging to a stereotypical world than to catch the improbable 'astoundingly' right situations (with a fair degree of error) at very few occasions.

Betting frequency per shoe

1) The worst risk/reward ratio (EV+, but getting huge volatility) considers an average amount of 15 bets per shoe. It's not the mere outcomes issue that matters, just the permutations issue.
With this ratio the algorithm tries to get all wins.

Yet, by adopting this average 15 bets per shoe ratio, we'll deadly sure to encounter very soon an all winning sequence at the same shoe, obviously by backing-up the first losing step (when it happens, that is almost a slight less than half of the times occurrence).
Say that winning 8-9 consecutive two-layered bets per shoe is the ideal world we should aim for.

2) Permutations issue.
Positive situations are more likely to come out clustered and losing sequences isolated, yet long positive situations might be intertwined by clustered (albeit short) losing successions and so on.
This is one of the main situation to look for clustered positive spots, regardless of their lenght.

3) Clustered positive sequences

They are more likely to show up than the isolated counterpart, yet any isolated winning spot will be more likely to be followed by a clustered positive succession of any lenght up that waiting one or a couple of consecutive isolated winning spots constitutes the best trigger to aim for.
More often than not, 'long' isolated winning sequences are interwined by isolated losing spots.

4) Isolated positive spots followed by clustered losing situations

It's the only very bad situation to take into account unless we properly consider the #3 point.
On average they happen less than one time out of 5 shoes dealt, in the meanwhile the more likely occurences that gave us a profit totally or partially cover such unfortunate but inevitable occurences.

The beauty of the algorithm action is that it's virtually impossible to get a back-to-back sequence of such kind happening at the same shoe.
A thing that it's relatively frequent at BR, BYB, SR and CR by applying a corresponding bet selection.

5) Isolated losing sequences

Completely unplayable unless intertwined by consecutive isolated positive spots.
It's the proof that the algorithm is not taking advantage of positive patterns caught by chance as  losing spots tend to be more clustered than following a natural 'probability of success' line, what really happens at the common roads.

See you in a couple of days.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on August 26, 2023, 07:32:03 PM
Asym above in post#863:

"...Get rid of your gambling attitude before thinking to play baccarat successfully

Whereas at poker an educated gambling attitude may transform a good player into a great player, at baccarat gambling must be completely tossed through the toilet with no exceptions...."



I agree 100% and along the same line of thinking.

IMO many players play with a very faulty gambling attitude. They play mostly to lose less.
An elder Bac mentor once stated it to me like this.

One should play to control losses and capitalize fully on wins. The common problem is that many feel the necessity to choose one or the other at the expense of the end goal. "To Win".

The majority of the ones who choose only one facet end up choosing simply to "play to lose less".
Thus, they end up losing by playing the WRONG game.



Continued Success,

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 28, 2023, 02:10:32 AM
Another brilliant comment made by one who had shown us here an endless piles of Benjamins.

The challenge with the house is asymmetrical from the start, but don't make such battle as "too much asymmetrical", meaning that we don't want to risk a lot in order to win a little.

Let casinos fear we're risking a finite X bankroll to win a virtually infinite amount of money and not luring us to stop the action after having collected a miserable profit.

Defending the bankroll is of utmost importance but "to win the tournament" sooner or later we must put in jeopardy a fair or a large part of the money won whether the proper conditions are met.
I say 'fair or large' as most of the times we're moving around tiny profits. 

Let Steve Wynn keep thinking that "the only way to win at a casino is to own one": he doesn't know and obviously he couldn't care less about how much money we've extracted from his Wynn and Encore premises.

BTW I suggest the reading of Bill Walters freshly released book: "Gambler: Secrets from a life at risk".
You won't be disappointed.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on August 29, 2023, 04:12:00 AM
Thx Asym for recommendation on Billy Walters book.
I purchased tonight.


Cheers,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 29, 2023, 11:46:41 PM
Good choice, KFB!  :thumbsup:


Are we sure to play with an edge?

In every asymmetrical proposition (itlr a side is advantaged over the other one, say our plan) it's natural to expect a W>L ratio, but there are more important tools to consider, that is the winning streaks shape and their distribution.

Obviously to exploit an edge, itlr W clusters must be superior than W isolated events meaning that very often it's not the actual W streaks lenght to shift things in our favor.
That's because the variance will put a strong obstacle to expect homogeneous situations featuring all of the time a greater amount of W clusters than W isolated situations.

In fact, W isolated events may easily come out clustered, so if you have a plan that went through a 4 or 5 or even 6 W isolated series without reaching superior values you can safely assume you were just lucky.

Even worse are the L sequences that cannot be 'controlled' by their lenght as under normal circumstances the edge remains small.

The trick to raise the probability of success is just a ploy to more likely catch the W clusters, well knowing that it can be valid only when fitting an 'average card distribution'.

Algorithm action


The algorithm is set up by two levels:

a) a mechanical classification about the probability of getting this or that by math features applied to a coin flip proposition;

b) an evaluation of the above results by statistical standards more or less deviating from an 'average' card distribution so enticing or not the betting.
I've utilized the word 'evaluation' (a topic already touched in a previous post), as the actual action must be calibrated upon the goal the players aim for: there are people who wants to play a quite number of hands (I hope mainly for comp reasons) and there are players who want to be right at very selected situations by wagering huge sums.

At any rate, the algorithm gets the best of it no matter what as it was instructed to take care of average card distributions, frequently stopping its action when things tend to not conform to those distributions.

Another important and counterintuitive issue is that the a) classification provide many shoes featuring an overall unit loss, so enhancing the concept that very often it's not important what we bet but 'when' we bet.
Obviously the (over) 'balanced' part is made of shoes providing ALL wins, it's just a matter of (few) time we'll exploit our edge.

The backup algorithm

Say that for some reasons the average card distribution is disregarded for long or for the entire shoe(s), so tossing into the trash our algorithm.

Besides the fact that such distributions will likely make the fortune of recreational or gambling players (so the almost entire baccarat community), we still have the tool to get our profits.

It's sufficient to postpone the algorithm A by a 1 factor, so building an algorithm B getting a different scheduled a) pace but a same b) rhythm.

Unlike the derived roads where the same Big Road will contemporarily produce quite diverse patterns at the three lines, algorithm A and algorithm B will produce the almost same number of expected spots but just by different permutations.

Since itlr the edge is mathematically insensitive of the permutations issue (as long as the card distributions fall into the average field) but relatively susceptible of short-intermediate variance, we may find reasons to put in action the algorithm B when the algorithm A stalls for long without suggesting any bet.

Now and in no way we're playing a kind of 'opposite' plan, we're just playing the probabilities under a 50% different pace plan.

So the only real problem to face is not about the probability to win but to properly set up manually the algorithms as it's quite easy to make mistakes, even if we just use the main algorithm A.

See you next week

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on August 30, 2023, 02:59:49 AM
First thanks for your interest.
I've tried again to forecast results at casinoscores site but it's a very difficult task to achieve, mainly as sometimes results are not properly registrated and then for a lack of proper betting time.
All this despite of my algorithms are perfectly working at my pc (so differently to a live world where we'll have to make the job manually) but even then they need some time to insert the actual results, not mentioning the problem to post in the site my forecasting ASAP.
(An additional addendum is that we don't like playing online for several reasons). 

Anyway you can be so sure about the edge I'm talking about that you can safely put at stake whatever you have on your name as no negative variance in the world could break our advantage.

BTW, it's very likely that among the best baccarat players in the world most of them are here.
So you're not wasting your precious time reading these site's pages.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on September 02, 2023, 02:55:48 PM
Hi AsymBacGuy

Thanks for your many fine posts.
re:post#871 above:

"...Algorithm action


The algorithm is set up by two levels:

a) a mechanical classification about the probability of getting this or that by math features applied to a coin flip proposition;

b) an evaluation of the above results by statistical standards more or less deviating from an 'average' card distribution so enticing or not the betting.
I've utilized the word 'evaluation' (a topic already touched in a previous post), as the actual action must be calibrated upon the goal the players aim for: there are people who wants to play a quite number of hands (I hope mainly for comp reasons) and there are players who want to be right at very selected situations by wagering huge sums...."

To help clarify my understanding:

Can you give an example of how many units is in your buyin?

Do you exhaust all of buyin within one single shoe?

Do you make a predetermined number of attempts within a shoe and then stop?

Do you make a predetermined number of Wins > than Losses and then stop?

Do you make "paper" bets until you see "Not a win", then commence your wagering--In other words wait and then expect a slight RTM?

If you miss a few do you start a slight neg progression to recoup a "less-than-desirable" hit rate?

Thx in advance
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 03, 2023, 09:12:36 PM
Hi KFB, thanks for your interest!!


Since we have verified that the alg. provides a slight number of more Ws than Ls (after vig), we consider any single session just as a minuscule part of the whole picture, so putting the maximum effort toward not losing severely than winning a lot.
Moreover, when a shoe is not featuring our 'average' expectations, we'll raise the requisites of future bets up to the point where we won't bet a dime anymore.

Oppositely, when a shoe seems to fit 'too much' to the average distribution, we may start to bet more spots but the betting amount more or less tends to stay at the same level.

So it's impossible to make us to lose a buy-in at a single shoe as the 'buy-in' concept simply doesn't exist. Let's assume we can rely upon a virtual'infinite' buy-in.   
 
So far the alg is not so sophisticated to cover all the situations when to stop (or prolong) our betting in relationship of the previous wins/losses register as it simply tries to spot each time what should be more likely to happen after a series of pattern results we've inserted on it.

Obviously the RTM effect makes an important role partially balanced by the rare most deviated card distributions denying it.
When in doubt and unless the rare strong deviations are coming at our favor (because are 'due'), stopping the bet is the best move to take, IMO.

Despite of having ascertained that the algorithm works wonderfully, we have learnt at our expenses one more time that most part of negpro plans are just making the casinos' fortune, that is that variance cannot be controlled by varying the betting amounts as even a verified edge could need a lot of time to show up.

See you later and again I'll try to make fictional bets at casinoscores site.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 04, 2023, 01:30:26 AM
There's no way to make fictional bets appearing as genuine wagers at casinoscores for many reasons.
So we better talk about general thoughts.

 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 04, 2023, 03:00:13 AM
Consider every possible shoe's scenario and its probability to happen and you'll have the answer about how we have set up the algorithms.

Remember that we're dealing with a finite slight dependent proposition being asymmetrical at the vast majority of the times.

So "long" symmetrical scenarios are the exception and not the rule.

Moreover we have added a decisive factor in our r.w.'s by implementing strict math and statistical features that cannot disregard an average card distribution as any hand is not completely coming out 'out of blue' as a roulette spin.

In a word, nearly 90% of the times we'll possibly lose just for a less likely permutations issue and at the 10% remaining part we are forced to bear a quite unlikely card distribution that could be extremely good around 6% of the times or extremely bad 4% of the times.

Interestingly, when one algorithm seems to fall into the negative permutations issue or being prey of a strong negative deviated field, and we're not willing to wait for a more natural course of action (whether the shoe is still considered 'playable'), the other one performs so good that it's a child's joke to select the most profitable situations.

After all, both algorithms move around the same math and stats concepts, that is the relative unlikelyhood to get symmetrical results for long.

See you in a couple of days.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 04, 2023, 04:00:43 AM
Think that our algorithms give a bighorn.sh.it about what math experts keep claiming, that's why they actually work.

We're clowns but knowing very well what Richard Von Mises, M. v. Smoluchowski, Konold, Nickerson, P. Revesz, Marigny de Grilleau and many others have written about randomness and statistical or gambling topics.

Oh well, math experts know better than them...

Thanks, thanks, thanks!!!!

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 05, 2023, 09:12:21 PM
Derived roads vs algorithms

Everybody knows that a given plan performing bad at a given derived road very often will form opposite situations at one or both other roads, so enticing us to change the succession to be followed, with the hope that things keep staying in the 'good' territory.

Sometimes the 'trick' works and other times does not and of course most of the times the probability to succeed is 50%. So worthless.
 
The derived roads invention was a brilliant accomplishment made by some Macau colleagues in the 70s (there are some statistical features to exploit by playing them) but somewhat flawed from the start.

The main problem of the DRs is that they are geometrically produced like bricks forming walls of different height, so 'too much' affected by the actual card distribution without giving a proper  role to the decisive math features.

In fact, whereas natural difficult situations arise at both DRs and algorithms and for different reasons, DRs do not give us the luxury to rely upon a 'well calibrated and controllable' scenario, the paramount condition to set up serenely a profitable plan itlr.

In truth, each DR is capable to provide longer positive situations than our algorithms but with the fatal downside to make more probable long negative sequences to happen.
A thing that we must avoid at all costs.

Obviously the same problem applies to the Big Road but at least here we possibly get additional factors to rely upon (see 'codes' plan for example).

But the most interesting thing we've found is that DRs are providing 'symmetrical' events, in the sense that every road will whimsically present good or bad situations in relationship of the actual distribution without any link between the three lines, whereas alg A when seems to fail makes alg B to get a more normal 'course of action'.

Despite of being both algorithms built with the same math and actual distribution issues, the alg A always takes the lead over the alg B as this one is considered just a back-up (still very profitable) plan. 

More later

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 06, 2023, 01:48:38 AM
The algorithms are built after having tested thousands and thousands of real shoes coming from various sources:

- Manually shuffled shoes

- Shuffle Master Machine shoes

- Preshuffled shoes (typical of HS rooms)

- Different mix of the above procedures

Results and profitability are the same, there are no significant statistical values favoring one or another method of shuffling.

Therefore we have thought that the partial unrandomness or the nearly perfect randomness of card shuffles won't make a role in determining the excellent alg's prediction.
That tends to collide with our past hypothesis that only a defect of randomness could make a game beatable.

Since we are not so naive to think that we were up on something without a reason, we thought that the old key cards asymmetrical distribution makes an important role about the results, moreover reinforced by what we name as "average card distribution" where alg A put the most emphasis on.
At the relatively less likely occurences where the 'average' seems to fail privileging the outliers and despite of a huge betting selection, the alg A stops its action conceding room to the alg B, but this is just a back-up less important move as more shoes we'll play more consistent will be the probability to exploit our EV+.

For sure there will be better algorithms to beat the game, yet we have tested an unbelievable number of different possibilities and so far those are the best.

The decisive factor, in our opinion, was to get a possible long term 'optimal play' based by comparing expected math and statistical features with the actual results, so even density and rhythm of presentation are both valuable tools to instruct the algorithm to make a proper job.

As already sayed, an ironic aspect to consider is that a same pattern (commonly considered as a single or a double, etc) could be a losing or a winning spot in relationship of when the alg decides to act.

To make a simple counter intuitive example, alg A may easily suggest to bet P after PP or PPP, or to bet P after B as those are the slight more likely occurrences related to the actual distribution.   

Obviously and to make the already complicated concepts simpler and to implement the authors ideas, the algorithms consider BP results as 50/50 spread, thus having the expected same probability to appear.
So in the process and while betting P side, we're conceding a general (but volatile) -0.18% math edge to the house.
Actually the algorithms are capable to catch situations where P probability is way over than 50% whereas B side gets more difficulty to spot situations surpassing easily and safely the 51.3% profitability cutoff point.

But this is a well known baccarat problem while betting B side: Either we're rarely astoundingly right (8.6%) or absurdly consistently wrong (91.4%).

See you next week

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 06, 2023, 02:04:53 AM
BTW, next week we'll talk about the 'overfitting' problem. 

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 10, 2023, 09:00:23 PM
IMO, more parameters we're inserting in the algorithms and greater will be the probability to get a poor prediction as the baccarat variables are so many that we risk to sink in the undetectable ocean where casinos take their huge profits.

For practical reasons, we've chosen to set up both algorithms in the simplest way and obviously 'training data' take care of the old 'average card distribution' that cannot be disregarded for long.
As already sayed, when an actual card distribution tends to deviate from the 'average', algorithms stop their action even if they have collected a temporary loss.

Good news is that when both algorithms are in action, in the vast majority of the times the positive clustering effect of one al. will overwhelm the other performing bad and not by a kind of 'opposite' way of considering things.

After all predictions are made upon a very restricted field of operation where the main goal is to  get all winnings along the shoe dealt.
Remaining situations, albeit producing more wins than losses at the end of the shoe, are very welcome but considered by the algorithms just as 'incidents'.

More later

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 11, 2023, 02:54:28 AM
For a moment say that the 'average card distribution' is an insane thought, that is just bighorn.sh.it.
So let's compare baccarat with the math beatable black jack.

Ask any serious bj card counting player how many profitable shoes, on average, he/she is going to expect along the way.
Moreover ask the same players whether a strong negative count happening on the initial-intermediate portions of the shoe will provide next favourable positive situations at the same shoe.

Probable answers are in the 12-16% field for the first question and a kind of "very close to zero" about the second one.

So and assuming a fair shuffling, 84%-88% of total shoes distributed produce both an 'average' card distribution or a "negative" unprofitable deviation.
That means that 24%-32% of total shoes are NOT roaming around averages where half of those deviations are profitable and the rest is EV-.

In a word and simplifying the issue, 76%-68% of total shoes are following a low deviation probability that we can condense into the 'average distribution' category.

At baccarat the 'average card distribution' concept still stands even though it's more intricated to be grasped as being a by product of both math and statistical features. 
In some sense algorithms follow what is more likely to happen at that 68%-76% portion of the shoes dealt, at the same time conceding a "possible" valuable room to that half part of 32%-24% deviated distributions not belonging to the average class. Anyway fearing at most negative streaks up to the point that even a single negative spot makes them to stop their action.

Therefore whereas there's a point to bet toward a positive streak as the main goal is always oriented to achieve a homogeneous winning streak per shoe, there are no reasons to 'limit' a negative occurence of any kind.
Actually it's just the (slight less likely) clustering negative appearances that makes this plan profitable.

No precise patterns will make the algorithms to start or stop their action, it's just the actual results pace to make the job and we have two different paces to rely upon.

Algorithms don't guess anything, they just select the spots where more probable sums are formed by adding a previous pattern value with the next unknown pattern value and fortunately they are more right than wrong.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on September 11, 2023, 12:55:21 PM
....."it's more intricated to be grasped as being a by product of both math and statistical features.".....

But stress, you never know when it will adhere, appear or disappear.   
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on September 12, 2023, 03:09:51 PM
Hi AsymBacGuy--I've enjoyed reading your algorithm posts.

"...Good news is that when both algorithms are in action, in the vast majority of the times the positive clustering effect of one al. will overwhelm the other performing bad and not by a kind of 'opposite' way of considering things...."

    Are you applying your algos in real time at a live table?
It also seems your methodology would be a good match for the Stadium Bac live dealer games.I've observed players entering ongoing data into an online app via iphone in real time.


"...Therefore whereas there's a point to bet toward a positive streak as the main goal is always oriented to achieve a homogeneous winning streak per shoe, ...

    I like the above/ much of my game lives/dies on early detection of said streaks.


...there are no reasons to 'limit' a negative occurence of any kind...."

    QQQQ--Please elaborate on this last part.



Thx as always,kfb





Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 12, 2023, 09:28:06 PM
Hi Al: yep, we can't know exactly when things happen, we're forced to move around probability ranges and IMO some ranges are more reliable than others.

Hi KFB!

Stadium bac live dealer games are quite good for this strategy but only tracking one table at a time. It's very easy to make mistakes and as already sayed this is the main problem of the algos action. (More inputs on that privately)

About the early detection of 'streaks': obviously an above than average profitable shoe must start  'positive' at the first steps rather than starting bad and suddendly producing a long positive streak. It's what we name as "positive recency" that tends to get a much more important impact than the "negative recency" counterpart on the betting frequency.

If a positive streak shows up we could think of it as a natural situation or a biased event, in any instance we have no reasons to stop the action, sometimes up to the end of the shoe (due to the relative rarity of the betting frequency).
Of course if we win itlr it means that most shoes are somewhat 'biased', in our case because they belong to the "average card distribution" category that most of the times produce expected result ranges.

Most shoes doesn't mean "all shoes" so we have to think what to do when the 'bias' seems not to be working.
Have to run, see you later

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 13, 2023, 02:11:45 AM
Into a true random environment where each result is fresh and completely independent from the previous one(s), the average card distribution concept cannot exist so the algorithms can't rely upon nothing as every outcome and every class of outcomes will belong to the same (unbeatable) world, so forming the old fkng Bell curve.

Thus the pivotal average card distribution (no matter how whimsical are the card combinations producing the actual results) should be entitled to make more asymmetrical events than symmetrical situations and of course we're just interested about one side of the asymmetrical operations (the positive side).

Consider an A/B succession produced by a random source where (p)A is 0.52 and (p)B is 0.48. (For example a roulette wheel having 52 black slots and 48 red slots).
Itlr and sure as hell we'll expect to get univocal situations privileging A streaks and B singles as every spin will more likely fall into the greater number of slots.

Say that even at baccarat we have found betting paces capable to get similar probabilities itlr, so we have reasons to dispute the perfect randomness of the source; in addition we may infer a kind of dependent back-to-back probability up to the point that the "natural" expected POSITIVE asymmetry could be erased or even inversed at a substantial portion of the shoes dealt.

Since any shoe is a new world (albeit being slight more likely to follow some pattern lines), distributions deviating too much from the "average" could be a perfect heaven or a terrible hell and we don't need deep thoughts to ascertain that.

In fact when the more probable average card distribution shows up, the positive expectancy is more likely to be clustered and clustered for long or to be isolated for very short terms, but when card distributions deviate too much from the average CD, we'll get a half probability to encounter deeper favourable events than average or, sigh, a half probability to get a sort of nightmare.

In some sense, we have 2 out of 3 occurences to rely upon:

1) Average card distribution (working at both algos)

2) Positive deviated card distribution (working at one alg, we do not know which)

3) Negative deviated card distribution (working at one alg, we do not know which)

Fortunately and differently than derived roads successions, per every shoe dealt both algorithms are able to spot more likely situations by taking care of a higher amount of volatility.

It's like that by riding both algos not a single shoe is unplayable and that's a decisive finding to not waste time by waiting an average card distribution or positive deviated CD to happen.
Anyway and without a software help, it's very very harsh to manually classify both algos at the same time, not mentioning the difficulty to know what to bet when one (or both) algos dictates so.

Next week an explanation about how different levels of asymmetry or temporarily symmetry will affect each algorithm.
Then I'll shut up.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 18, 2023, 02:10:06 AM
At a given binomial succession, one of the simpler ways to ascertain randomness is to register the number of "runs", that is how many times a given side will shift to the opposite one.
If the production source is constant and completely independent for each outcome, there are no valuable strategies to detect when the runs number may enlarge, decrease or stay at 'average' values. Any hand is a new hand, period.

Therefore after 100 hands, 25% of total outcomes will be singles (enlarging the runs number) and the remaining part belonging to various streaks (25% of doubles and 50% of superior streaks) that tend to decrease the runs number.
Do not confuse the number of total hands with the patterns shape (obviously itlr singles=streaks, doubles=superior streaks, etc)

But at baccarat we have reasons to think that the production  may be affected by a partial (volatile) unrandomness and anyway cards cannot be uniformly distributed, especially for the fact that some ranks will get a different weight over the final outcomes (key cards).
Now and for obvious reasons, the number of runs is a too simple tool to rely upon as being too sensitive of the volatile actual card distribution.
We'll never know precisely and even by considering single outcomes by "ranges" the key card falling and their impact over the final results.

Thus we could face the issue by a different angle, that is considering outcomes under the asymmetry or symmetry lens so considering diverse classes of results more probable to converge toward specific situations.

Our algorithms do not give a damn about actual strong (profitable or not) deviations and let alone about the B math advantage. They simply do their best to assess the various levels of natural asymmetry and the temporarily (less probable) symmetrical situations any shoe in the universe will be more likely to produce.
When both events tend to be silent (thus the asymmetry is not present or showing up by very low values and, more importantly, the less likely symmetry takes an improbable strong lead), our algos will lose.
Actually whenever the main algorithm seems to get unplayable spots for "long" or collecting more losses than wins, the back-up algorithm will get a slighter amount of favourable situations than not.

It's because we set up both algos not by a kind of opposite triggers applied to the same succession, just by a different constant rhythm that tries to get the best of the more likely card distribution.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on September 19, 2023, 02:56:55 PM
Hi Asym. I hope all is well.

In your post above #887:

"...At a given binomial succession, one of the simpler ways to ascertain randomness is to register the number of "runs", that is how many times a given side will shift to the opposite one...."

I like that statement. I also like to think of it as Distance-Between-Runs. I also like to view other outcomes as "Distance Between". For example, "Distance-Between-Sevens", et al #s. Even if this (Distance Between) concept doesn't always tell us exactly when an exact event is more probable it may still tell us if this shoe (thus far) is acting normally (random) or an outlier (significantly NOT random).

I find the outlier shoe more difficult to consistently prosper from because one MUST be in sync with the outcomes, or one digs a hole. A reason I'm also against wagering a static bet at a predetermined specific spot. If incorrect we can't climb out of the hole or must spend several shoes climbing out. I call these shoes erratic and will sometimes cease wagering or wait on next shoe if I'm not in sync early. 





Continued Success,



Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 20, 2023, 01:36:31 AM
Hi KFB!

Excellent points. No jokes.

Again I stress about the importance of R. von Mises definition of randomness and Smoluchowski probability after effects concept, clearly and undoubtedly confirming that at baccarat most successions are unrandomly or partially unrandom distributed.

There's no way to beat a perfect random world for long, but there are several ways to exploit unrandomness itlr even though we do not know the precise direction the unrandomness will take at any shoe dealt.
Obviously and as you correctly sayed in your post, the unrandomness could lead to terrific spots or to terrible situations, so enticing the betting action or not by assessing, shoe per shoe, simple statistical standards.

Smooth operators

Algorithms act like the Sade 'Smooth operator' song words: "No place for beginners or sensitive hearts".
The final betting process is made after considering several parameters, so they'll do what they are instructed to do: That is suggesting the more probable spots, shoe per shoe, giving a lesser damn about the actual conditions or long term probabilities that sometimes could lead to bet the opposite side.

Algos do not guess anything: They just know that when betting Banker they need at least a 51.3% to succeed, or when betting Player they need at least a 50.1% winning probability.
That's where the edge comes from.
Whenever such cutoff values are surpassed too much, they simply stop or moderate their action as they "know" that a kind of too deviated situation is happening.
When a strong deviation happens, half of the times will go to our favor but the other half will be harmful and obviously both parts are asymmetrically ROI (return on investment) shaped for the natural EV- feature.

It's the rhythm of presentation that counts and fortunately one of the two algorithms is entitled to catch a "more expected" course of action by a degree of precision touching the 100% value.
So in some sense it's very very unlikely both algos will get the same long positive streaks for long.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 24, 2023, 08:55:14 PM
Very soon a brief discussion about how much the baccarat 'source' (SM machines, manual shuffling, etc) has a sensibile impact over the outcomes.

as. 

 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 25, 2023, 02:05:08 AM
Basically casinos offer three kind of shoe shuffling:

a- manually

b- shuffling machines (the most utilized is the Shuffle Master and its variations)

c- preordered shuffle (HS rooms for example)

We have a strong belief that the 'cut' doesn't significantly change the "natural" flow of the outcomes for the already mentioned "alignment" factor. At least for our algos prediction.

Long term studies made on large samples of distinct categories enticed us to think that one algorithm performs significantly better at machines shuffled shoes, meaning that to get a substantial edge over the house just one algorithm random walk will get the best of it, so capable to nimbly overcome the natural negative deviations.

On the other end, manually shuffled and (at a lesser level) preordered shuffled shoes sometimes might pose a serious threat on the main algorithm action so luring the back-up alg to work. Hence complicating things a bit.

Don't worry: casinos do not give a lesser damn about this, they know that more shoes are offering in very restricted times, greater will be their probability to get profits.
And shuffling machines will perfectly fit this task.
Since players' aim isn't certified by math we're sure machines are making unbeatable our main algorithm and I'm not joking about this.

Generally speaking, manually shuffled shoes considered under our main algorithm lens could be a heaven or a hell as more likely affected by a moderate or strong unrandomness tending to provide longer positive or negative streaks than expected.
Good news is that the backup algorithm is able to catch a slight greater amount of positive than negative situations (at the cost that the main alg had to previously lose some spots before we consider to utilize the B plan).

Preordered shuffles where most money is wagered upon are a bit more intricated to be assessed as we do not know the visual source of shuffling.
Anyway we have reasons to think that casinos' goal is to offer shoes as perfectly random distributed as they can, well knowing that math edge + randomness = 100% unbeatability.

Actually a strong 'seemingly' randomness is what the main algorithm looks for: in fact an optimal randomness is unbeatable only when a perfect independent production source is acting per every hand dealt, thus giving a fkng damn about the average key cards impact and/or the natural math asymmetrical features happening along the way. Moreover giving a lesser damn about the "density" of the asymmetrical and symmetrical outcomes.
But all those parameters are considered irrelevant (besides the obvious B long term propensity) by our math and gambling expert fkng losers.
But not by our long term winning algorithms.

Naturally and to state that, we know how machines shuffle the cards and obviously we know by a fair degree of precision that preordered shoes are coming out from machine shufflers.

So as long as a machine is involved to provide outcomes, long term probability to make our main algorithm to lose will be very close to 0.

When manually shuffled shoes seem to get unprofitable the main algorithm random walk's action, it's time to utilize the backup algorithm. Or, naturally, to consider as unplayable that shoe.

Problem is that without using an illegal software, riding two different algos will easily lead to a lot of mistakes as the different algos' rhythms need plenty of attention to be properly registered.
This is the only downside of such long term EV+ plan.

Algorithms do not guess or hope for anything, they just suggest to bet EV+ spots.

Of course we're just clowns, baccarat remains an unbeatable game.
In the meanwhile we collect the short term positive variance (LOL)

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on September 26, 2023, 02:56:35 PM
Hi Asym--Good read above.

"...Basically casinos offer three kind of shoe shuffling:

a- manually

b- shuffling machines (the most utilized is the Shuffle Master and its variations)

c- preordered shuffle (HS rooms for example)..."

I once overheard a dealer respond to her pit boss when he asked was she ready to open the Bac game. She said yes but I accidentally did a BJ shuffle. His response was: "Fxxk it " just get the game started."

This was many years ago /I could not see the type of shuffler they were using(though I tried,lol). My question to Asym and others:

What shuffling options do casinos have with modern day shuffling machines for Bac. For example, do they have five buttons on the back (A,B,C,D,E,...etc) for whatever shuffle.

Do they have >= 3-4 different types of shuffles.?
I know they can order pre-shuffled cards with different types of shuffles.

I also know some casinos shuffles tend to generate certain profiles. *I have one cas that will most certainly have longer-than-expectation streaks of 2x2s. I noticed this about six years ago and have actually collected data to confirm my hypothesis.

I also know dealers that have indicated their instructions are to turn shuffler on for a predetermined number of minutes to supposedly insure an adequate shuffle. I've had dealers say they just turn the shuffler on, and it lets them know (green light comes on) when the shuffle is finished, . . .etc.

Any thoughts by anyone????


Thx in advance, kfb

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on September 27, 2023, 01:00:51 PM
Quote.................


Any thoughts by anyone????


Thx in advance, kfb



A very controversial subject. 

But.....all a machine can do is 'deep' shuffle, or 'light' shuffle.  No way to put in order card values, etc. 

And....if you see same cards and 1 or 2 lesser/greater
point value consecutive cards appearing in repetitive order, use that to your advantage.  Again, as I have done very well with, following the presentments and not wagering for something I desire.

And.....I strongly believe the cut, at least if it's greater than a half deck deep, as well as the burn, squashes any order the shoe could have been set up with.

I have done countless trials years ago with 8 decks, shuffling, putting in order and then hundreds of cuts and burns, no order of my 'pre-set' cards was able to be held.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on September 30, 2023, 09:34:58 PM
Differently than black jack where casinos might (but they don't) virtually arrange the decks by not getting any kind of advantage for card counters (as a substantial portion of the cards is cut off from the play), at baccarat everything revolves around the number of 'runs' obvioulsy considered a too volatile value to set up a strategy upon.

Simplifying a lot, players who like to play 'streaky' shoes are hoping to get a relatively low number of runs whereas 'anti streak' players are doing the exact opposite.
Thinking that casinos are adapting their shuffles to the actual players category wagering at their tables is out of question, because itlr the number of runs assume a bell curve (unbeatable) distribution.
Casinos' aim is to get shoes more randomly distributed than they can, period.

The topic why a given shuffle tends to form more predictable patterns needs features overcoming the simple 'runs' factor, that is involving a symmetry/asymmetry parameter enticing the action of so called "limited random walks".

In our opinion there's a delicate balancement between asymmetrical and symmetrical limited random walks that are following diverse lines than expected by a "everytime it's a new independent hand" world and it seems our results are giving us a proof of such "weird" theory.

More on that later

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 01, 2023, 02:23:46 AM
'Runs' are classified by the number of shifts of one side to the another one.
For example a BPBBPPBPPPPPPBB sequence forms 6 runs and the same concept applies to every A/B binomial model where we assign a given status either to A or B.

The average runs number of a given production is one of the simplest way to assess randomness without calculating it by other statistical parameters as by using the chi square test, for example.

The state of art of baccarat has taught us that BP hands are moving around unbeatable values as B and P results are corresponding to a kind of a constant undetectable EV- coin flip succession.
That is a random undetectable world.

That's a complete rattlesnakesh.i.t: if this statement should be true, any bac succession should confirm the perfect place selection independence, in the sense that no matter which spot we select to consider (or bet) outcomes will invariably follow a general (unb) probability line.

To get a better idea of what I'm talking about say we're deadly sure that the card distribution of every shoe dealt will be asymmetrically shaped.

Now the sure asymmetrical card distribution will entice either asym patterns or sym patterns.
And at both categories different densities of those opposite scenarios will reach more probable values.
When some cutoff values are touched, we're not interested to know whether things will change or not, we simply let results to flow without betting a dime. 

Algorithms just exploit the asym/sym various AVERAGE densities happening along any shoe dealt and as already sayed the main algorithm will get the lead over the backup algorithm because A algo will catch a slight more profitable situations than the B algo, as the former consider a slight more complex rhythm than the other one.
For example giving a lesser impact over the moderate homogeneous streaks but relatively suffering of other strong symmetrical but unlikely sequences favoring the B algo wins.

as.   
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on October 01, 2023, 03:49:50 AM
Hi Asym

Good thoughts in post #895.

I have a couple thoughts/ questions but will need to ponder your essay a little more.




Cheers,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 04, 2023, 02:06:03 AM
Algos work because they try to estimate the relationship between the actual card distribution and the "average card distribution".

Players "guessing" doesn't work because it tends to get rid of the "average" privileging the "actual".

On the contrary, "triggers" players do not win either as they put too much emphasis about the "expected" instead of assigning a proper value on the "actual".

Of course algos are instructed to know very well how to deal with those rare unfortunate or lucky situations touching or surpassing a 4 or greater sigma probability.

Another important issue is that algos cannot care less about the actual bankroll status or about previous results: that's a pivotal aspect completely diverging to any method, system or approach invented to beat this game.

As already sayed, algos can only fear a "short term" unfavourable permutations issue that can easily overcome by the use of two simultaneous algos applied to the same sequence.
Or by calibrating the main one under stricter parameters when positive clusters tend to be silent for long.

We should remember that the aim of playing baccarat is to make money and not to have fun or collecting comps.
And algos will make their best efforts to exploit symmetry/asymmetry of the deck not visually determined, otherwise it would be a too simple task to accomplish.

More later.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on October 04, 2023, 02:54:34 PM
Hi AsymBacGuy

In your post a couple days ago:
"...Algos work because they try to estimate the relationship between the actual card distribution and the "average card distribution".

Players "guessing" doesn't work because it tends to get rid of the "average" privileging the "actual".

On the contrary, "triggers" players do not win either as they put too much emphasis about the "expected" instead of assigning a proper value on the "actual"...."

There was once a Bac App on youtube a group was selling that one could use to make a decision on P vs B. I also see players at Stadium Bac in Biloxi,Mississippi, USA  et al casinos utilizing an app on their phone. They would enter each and every card extracted. The casinos didn't seem to care as they walked by and didn't ask questions or say anything.


* I do not know if the app was analyzing patterns and then utilizing an algorithm to project a winner based on the previous patterns or simply assessing the cards removed (& remaining) and projecting a winner based on that alone(The edge would only be minimal on the latter and still may not neutralize 100% of house edge, IMO).


Any thoughts?
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on October 04, 2023, 03:08:28 PM
Win today with an app and lose the next ten fold days/sessions with the app. 

Same thing as the scoreboard.  Follow it this shoe and win and then the next 15 shoes total unpredictability or un-followability! 

Take all the notes you want at the table.  4 cards left, three face cards and one 9, before the red card comes out.  Please tell me which side will get the two face cards and which side will get the 9 and a face.  Please tell me.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 04, 2023, 10:54:22 PM
Hi KFB!
Even if an existent app would work (and I highly doubt it) there are no many Stadiums around the globe to use it.
Then casinos via eyes in the sky are able to scrutinize winning players even at Stadiums, especially if they use a cellphone. So it's quite likely that as long as "app" players are not consistent winners no heat is going up.

Another problem with Stadiums is that we have very few time to place our bets and it's more probable to make mistakes as dealer doesn't wait for our action.

Finally it seems we all agree that card tracking isn't the way to make 'better than average' choices at BP hands.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 05, 2023, 12:41:44 AM
Al wrote: Same thing as the scoreboard.  Follow it this shoe and win and then the next 15 shoes total unpredictability or un-followability!


True, because you are taking one side of the problem. That is the actual single shoe presentation and more often than not it's just a permutations issue that makes us losers or winners.

Example. We're betting toward singles and doubles, triples are our "enemy".

Before considering an actual production let's see how many triples on average will show up per every single shoe.

Answer: say the triples number per shoe (obviously in relationship of how many cards are really allowed to be dealt) is 9.5 .

How many columns are showing up on average per shoe? Say 38.

38:9.5 = 4, and that's the expected value applied to a binomial independent production, that is on average per every triple we'll get three singles and/or doubles patterns. 1/3.

Now we have to set up a strategy based upon this feature, well knowing that such ratio could be easily disregarded at either way. But for a moment assume it remains constant per each shoe dealt.

Say A= singles and doubles and B=triples. 

An ideal world would be to get a presentation pace corresponding to the expected ratio:

AAABAAABAAABAAAB....or BAAABAAABAAAB...

Apparently this is a perfect symmetrical production but in reality is not as A includes two different patterns considered as equal (singles and doubles) and B a vast category of various streaks surpassing the 2 point (triples).

Other productions getting the same "perfect" 1:3 A/B ratio might be:

BBABABBBAAAABBBAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

or

AAAAAAAABBBBBBAAABBAAAAABBAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

We notice that playing toward A in the former example would lead to a total disaster, the latter example lead to the same consequences at the six B streak.

Finally we see that in such extremized (but possible) examples the number of shifts is very low: 7 and 6.
And we're still talking about a perfect 1:3 ratio....
Let's imagine what could happen when B instead of being 9 or 10 is 13 or 14. So proportionally lowering the number of profitable A events.

Obviously we could think about the opposite favourable situation, that is a number of A way greater than 28.5, say 32 or 33.

We can't know if the actual shoe will be rich or poor of A or B, but we do know that the vast majority of shoes dealt will approach more and more to the 1:3 B/A ratio with all the permutations varieties. 

Summary

If the B/A ratio nearly stays in the 1:3 field, it's virtually impossible to lose. Providing to take care of the permutations issue.
When the B/A ratio is quite higher than expected it's more probable that even the permutations issue doesn't make a substantial role in spotting favourable situations. And vice versa when B/A is quite lower than expected.

Put the probabilities into numbers and check your shoes and you'll see that shoes producing more than 11 or 12 triples are quite rare.
More interestingly is the fact that triples are less likely to come out consecutively for long time than what singles and doubles could by considering a proportional unit loss or win. A mere permutation issue.

In a word, it's way more likely to encounter a 21, 23 or higher single/double consecutive streak than crossing a proportional 7 or 8 consecutive triples streak.
That means that the average card distribution makes more probable to get a greater number of consecutive side shifts than the proportional consecutive triples counterpart.

So when the B/A ratio tends to go too far from the 1:3 ratio and assuming those scenarios have the same symmetrical probability to appear, B clusters will be proportionally slight shorter than A clusters.
Therefore 'bad' could happen even for long, but 'good' could happen for longer.

Anyway, algorithms need more precision to forecast outcomes; they can't accept to consider a 3 or a 11 streak belonging to the same "triples" category.
And at a lesser level, even singles and doubles cannot constitute a "same" class.
So they ought to register every single hand.

But the basic process remains the same.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 09, 2023, 01:41:30 AM
Paradoxical arguments and considerations

It's sure that an independent and random binomial production can't be beaten by any means, let alone if results are unfairly payed.

Baccarat isn't a perfect binomial game as winning bets are unfairly payed (B) or getting a lower probability to appear (P).
We can't do anything to alter this.

It remains to evaluate the independence and the randomness factors that, in our opinion, are linked together.

There's no way to beat a game whether we couldn't spot the possible unrandom events but we need to know which direction such unrandom sequences will take as at baccarat a "general rule" cannot work  (differently than black jack where low cards favor the dealer and high cards and aces favor the player).

Moreover and even if the actual production is "random", the independence factor between hands could be investigated in order to assess possible "more likely" patterns.

Gambling experts have tried to estimate mathematically the dependency of the outcomes in relationship of the actual shoe's card composition assuming some cards are good for the B and others for the P.
They were right but the effect is too tiny so useless.

Anyway we have the proof that a given card composition left will make more probable (albeit by a very very very very slight level) a side to happen than the opposite.

Therefore we might infer that a dependency between hands exists so baccarat isn't a coin flip but not because it lacks of the perfect symmetrical BP probability to happen.

To summarize the issue in practical terms, IMO we have just two options of thinking to really beat baccarat:

a) we have reasons to think that the production is quite unrandom and we have tools to valuably ascertain the unrandom segments' direction of any shoe or most shoes dealt; here the dependency factor takes a minor role as it cannot be assigned before or along the shoe dealing.

b) we have reasons to think that we're facing a very close to perfect random production affecting the results, so we must find "mechanical" ways to enlarge profitably the important dependency factor.

Since casinos' aim (at least at HS rooms where a lot of money is wagered at) will be to get more randomly shoes than they can, our main algorithm should take care of a huge degree of randomness and, more importantly, to find solutions about enlarging the dependency world.

In the circumstances where the main algorithm seems to fail, the backup algo will make the job as it is calibrated to get the best of it by bearing the most unidirectional volatile situations typical of a partial unrandom model.(And half of the time such situations are easily humanly determined and the other half are very difficult to be grasped). 

The paradoxical conclusion is that shoes approaching the perfect randomness attribute will be more likely to be "controlled", that is giving more detectable spots to the main algo that takes care of the average card distribution (and able to enlarge dependency features).

We guess that it's not the casino's interest to badly shuffle the cards....isn't it?

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 09, 2023, 02:28:56 AM
While playing baccarat a funny thing to observe is that 90% of people keep betting what "they feel more likely to come", especially if they are used to bet every hand or almost every hand.

Actually it's just what casinos hope for: that is having players betting for this or that in the effort that something univocally shaped will happen for long.
Or, even worse, that something not belonging to a given actual predominant category will magically change as "their tests dictated so".

Algorithms move just around the middle of the operations field: they know that something will prolong and they know that something will stop very soon by specific more likely terms in relationship of the estimated level of randomness of the actual shoe.

They are so acute that they are able to provide close to optimal choices worth of erasing and inverting the HE.
And it's not a coincidence that they need a fair number of hands dealt before eliciting a given real betting action.

Algos are more cautious than us, they know that "easy solutions" are not coming out around any corner.

They can't give a lesser dam.n about our current bankroll status, they simply suggest best options knowing that itlr they'll be more right than wrong by a degree capable to invert the HE.

When algos don't suggest any bet (and such thing happens quite often) it's because they are not able to spot favourable situations either at unrandom shuffled shoes and at perfectly random shuffled productions.

Finally algos are the best permutation forecasters as they constantly evaluate an average enemy/friend ratio related to the actual portion(s) of the shoe.
A thing that we'll see in a couple of days.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 10, 2023, 09:05:49 PM
An algo starts with the assumption that most shoes are concentrating toward a close to equal enemy/friend ratio, of course it must also take into account the actual streaks lenght (besides of complicated card situations I do not want to discuss here). And those streaks are just one of the main indicators of the level of randomness (IMO).

I mean that whenever an "average" shoe is showing up it's virtually impossible to lose as the algo takes care of the enemy/friend gaps and consecutiveness.
Thus whenever the E/F ratio remains constant or close to equal at the end of the shoe, it's just the permutation issue to be "controlled", meaning that we should be prepared to deal with ALL possible permutations.
Obviously there's a "more likely line" to be followed as not each permutation will get the same probability to appear (think of the enemy coming out severely clustered, for example).

On the other end, severely clustered enemies might be a sign of those "deviated" shoes giving us some or a lot of trouble and normally such shoes will more probably belong to the "unrandom category".
For example, when sharp enemy clusters happen at the start of the shoe or in the first 1/3 of the shoe, we might think that the E/F final ratio will be surpassed beyond the normal values.

Then there are the rare enemy situations intertwined by long friend streaks and fortunately those  deviations are slight more likely than the strong enemy clusters counterpart.

Naturally there is no guarantee that the deviated category at either positive or negative side will come out "when we wish" and it's very likely that after one or a couple of negative shoes the player's attitude is flawed.
But not that of the algos.

More later

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 11, 2023, 02:45:20 AM
Basically algos are instructed FIRST to catch the more likely world (where E/F ratio is close or very close to 1 so the permutations issue takes a major role), THEN to get the best of the F clusters and to get the least damage when E clusters come out. (see later)

It's intuitive to realize that PER EVERY SHOE DEALT patterns as doubles vs 3+ streaks or other simple "fighting" patterns do not belong to a kind of constant E/F ratio as being affected by a fair or huge degree of volatility.
And algos hate at most variance.

This happens because at those patterns the dependency factor tends to be too low to be exploited, so for the purpose of what we're talking about such patterns don't give us an idea of what the actual card distribution should be more likely entitled to do.

Back to the previous topic.

The principal aim of our A algo is to bet towards the more probable permutations applied to a more likely E/F ratio; when rare negative permutations take place we have to run the backup algo or simply quit that shoe.

It's of particular interest to know that in the process of continuing or discarding from the play the actual shoe, the streaks distribution makes a decisive role: that is the clustering or the isolating effect.
By applying a proper rhythm of considering the outcomes, each class of streaks will be more clustered than isolated and of course when E streaks are coming out clustered we have less reasons to attack very soon that shoe. And vice versa for F streaks whether showing up isolated (so preceded and followed by a different streak class).

That's one of the best tool to think about prolonging a possible profitable succession or to stop it.
And in fact when we decide to put in action the backup algo, we'll see that in the vast majority of the times, the clustering streaks effect had taken place.

No wonder that I'm talking about the more probable classes of streaks...

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on October 13, 2023, 03:19:11 PM
And what you just wrote there; "Naturally there is no guarantee that the deviated category at either positive or negative side will come out "when we wish" and it's very likely that after one or a couple of negative shoes the player's attitude is flawed." 

SPOT THE FRICK ON!  So many, the highest of the greatest majority have zero idea why the casinos spent so much real valuable money on all those high tech beautiful score boards!


Ask a player and something like: "Those scoreboards give us a huge advantage", will be said.

Ask a casino executive back in the late 90s/early 2000s and something like:  "Those scoreboards entice players to wager as well as feel like they can predict more, causing them to wager longer and larger.  Couple that with the well known fact, the longer they play the more they lose", will be said.   
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 14, 2023, 09:07:17 PM
Al, what you have written is absolutely true: more patterns are displayed in the screen more action is expected from players in the hope that something univocally shaped will prolong by a "sky's the limit" direction.

Nonetheless, some derived lines will make way more probable the appearance of some (rare) univocal patterns than at Big Road.

I've provided some examples about that:

-At BYB road and SR road very long consecutive double patterns are 10-fold more likely than at Big Road.

-At CR road and assuming the same number of shoes dealt, the probability to face long streaks (say superior than 6 or 7) is greater than at Big Road.

But as you've correctly pointed out (and knowing that anyway such situations are relatively rare to happen) most players are not going to wait for them, thinking that every shoe dealt will present such slight abnormalities. (of course assuming they are aware of them)

Casinos are patient to wait for their math edge to show up and for the many mistakes players will make in the effort to win or to win more or to break even in too short terms.

as.
 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on October 14, 2023, 10:26:05 PM
Anything and everything can happen in any shoe played of Baccarat.

That is why my greatest advantage is, if I can stick to it and deploy huge self-control and patience is, following sections without being biased and focusing on experience (which causes us to be biased) and what I want the shoe to do (which most don't understand the shoe will not comply with our desires—rather it presents what it is physically set to).
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 15, 2023, 03:38:38 AM
Definitely I can't dispute your arguments Al, yet it's quite difficult to spot the favourable/unfavourable sections you've mentioned unless (IMO) we try to put the basis for a strict mechanical way of considering outcomes.

Betting frequency

Trying to be more right than wrong per every hand dealt is impossible and we're pretty certain that it's impossible either when betting half hands of a shoe.
For that matter we have tried to operate our algos by a betting frequency close to 1/3 of total hands dealt and itlr results were a disaster.

To stay put in the vast majority of the times is the key to have success itlr as just a single or a couple of hands that went wrong mathematically could transform a wonderful sequence into a horrible one. At both algos action, I mean.

Yes, quite often positive situations could last for long or very long but the negative counterpart  must be avoided at all costs, even though it will be slight less likely to happen.

After all, from a math point of view it's ridiculous to think that a EV- game could be beatable itlr and our algos know very well that. So they are built toward the maximum possible level of "safety", so putting more emphasis on not losing instead of winning (a lot).

Not every "low betting frequency" player will be a long term winner but 100% of long term winners bet very few hands per shoe. At least when they bet the principal amount they're interested to wager as the "illusion of action" is a common trait among real winners, capable to concede the HE at their lower wagers and able to exploit an edge at pivotal hands.

Without any doubt every soul betting more than 20-25% of total hands dealt is a sure pure loser and among this category maybe just one or two players are really defending their bankroll wisely.

The "experts" argument that people wagering rarely are just diluting their losing expectancy is almost always right but not 100% right. That's where our edge comes from.

Technical features

At a EV- game the best math move to win is not to bet many portions of our session's bankroll but to bet everything in one attempt (Bold Strategy).
Since we have ascertained that some baccarat spots are EV+ interwined in the EV- ocean, we might come at the conclusion that it's way better to bet a lot at rare spots than to dilute our wagers by fearing that unfortunate situations could come out and depleting our session's bankroll.

More on that tomorrow

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on October 15, 2023, 03:47:05 AM
I try to play all shoes with 3-5 sections.  Sections allow me to concentrate and realize on what is actually being presented. 

Every shoe will have sections.  Every 15-25 hands or so is a section.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 15, 2023, 08:46:31 PM
That's interesting but I guess that playing by "sections" needs a lot of experience as very often the sections texture is too confusing to be valuably exploited.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on October 15, 2023, 09:07:34 PM
Real brick and mortar bac is random, unlike online and practice games that mimic real live bac. 

My best chance as well as others, is to follow what the shoe is presenting.  Easier said than done.  However, when it's there or when it's not (depending on what the bettor believes) can be highlighted within sections that will allow the bettor to consciously focus while putting aside all the mechanical wagering and as well, say being on hand 50 + and wagering on what the shoe produced say a few times from hands 1-35 with things such as; Cutting after a tie, sticking or cutting after a natural, players 3rd was a seven so it should be a bankers win next, etc., etc., etc. 

I can't always stick to sections, but I sure try.  I do know that I win much larger and longer when I do the majority of times. 

I also know that when I don't go by sections, such as in my recent posts about those heavy chop shoes, etc., I either lose my buy-in or break even with a possible tiny profit, when I could have done hundreds of times better.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 15, 2023, 11:23:16 PM
How many consecutive times an algo is expected to lose?

Unfortunately (and obviously) there's no a specific answer and that's why a martingale approach isn't recommended at any game even by playing with an advantage.

But there are other options to be considered, for example what's the more likely LW gap (LW, LLW, LLLW, etc) or WW, WL patterns when utilizing a deep bet selection.

Now there's a better possible answer and it's at the very beginning of any shoe dealt.
And when the selection is ultra deep, the beginning of the shoe corresponds to the total shoe.

In addition, differently than the basic way of utilizing a 0.75 probability now we'll just consider a "same class" clustering trigger, that is waiting for a searched specific trigger to happen and then "hoping" that another one will come out before the losing counterpart class shows up.

Here our last shoes played by taking care of the very first two bets the main algo suggested.

LL
LL
WL
WW
WW
WW
WW
LW
WW
WW
WL
LW
WL
LW
W(-)
L(-)
WW
LW
WW
WL
WL
WW
WW
WL
LW
WW
LW
LL
LW
LW
WW
LW
WW
W(-)
WL
WW
WW
LW
LW
LW
LL
LW
LL
LL
WL
W(-)
LL
WW
W(-)
LL
LW

(-): no second trigger showing up until the end of the shoe.

Summary

Total situations splitted in double W/L results =51

First W=28
First L=23

Second W=31
Second L=15 (5 hands not classified by lack of triggers)

WW=16
WL=8
LL=8
LW=14

Is this a short term positive variance?
No fkng way as the same results were registered after thousands and thousands of REAL LIVE shoes played.

Now let's look at the third trigger eliciting a bet:

W
L
W
W
W
W
W
W
L
(-)
W
W
L
W
(-)
(-)
W
(-)
(-)
W
L
(-)
L
(-)
L
(-)
L
W
W
L
W
W
L
(-)
(-)
L
L
(-)
W
(-)
W
(-)
W
W
W
(-)
W
W
(-)
W
(-)

W=24
L=11

(-)=16

Check each of the 51 rows (shoes) and you'll see that out of 35 resolved situations per shoe, only shoe #2 provided a LLL sequence, that is a 1/8 expected probability.

Since those shoes were quite whimsically patterns shaped, we guess that the main algo while suggesting a general "more probable results flow" seems to make a very good job as no matter which point of intervention it picked up, more Ws than Ls are coming around even if here we haven't considered  the vig impact, anyway applied to a very low number of bets made per shoe.

See you in a couple of days.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 17, 2023, 09:26:32 PM
Well, those shoes were coming out from the same (biased, IMO) shuffling machine.

And the interesting part is that the backup algo got specular losing sequences, confirming the main algo's good predictability.

The problem is that when big money is allowed to be wagered, machines are not utilized or we can't precisely know the card distributions' source.
Fortunately we have found a tool capable to approximate at best the various card distributions by increasing by one step (or two steps) the algos action.

More later

as.
 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on October 18, 2023, 02:52:45 PM
Hi all,

I really like AsymBacGuys' post #901 above. Alot of nuggets/worthy of repeated views from time to time.

In Ayms post #904 above:

"...On the other end, severely clustered enemies might be a sign of those "deviated" shoes giving us some or a lot of trouble and normally such shoes will more probably belong to the "unrandom category".
For example, when sharp enemy clusters happen at the start of the shoe or in the first 1/3 of the shoe, we might think that the E/F final ratio will be surpassed beyond the normal values.  ..."


    I concur with my own play. I find really easy Net+ win shoes often start positive and have only minimal, if any drawdowns. Also, my really bad shoes where I finish Net- often start with subpar hit rate (Even if I recover or partially recover) and often my hit rate doesn't improve much in that shoe.

One thing that I perceive helps me survive the shoes starting out as net- shoes is to not feel a need for 100% recovery in that one shoe. So as an example if I drawdown -800 on a 2000 buyin, then recover so that Im only Net: -200 after 60--70% of shoe. I feel blessed/fortunate as often this is where players dig a very deep hole, IMO. Though I could indeed see favorable environments in latter part of that shoe and recover after that first brief uptick and recovery. However, after that one partial recovery I seldom see another recovery spot. I sometimes find it optimum to simply stand still and monitor while I wait for the beginning of a new shoe. Just me personally.


Asyms' post #909:
"...Trying to be more right than wrong per every hand dealt is impossible and we're pretty certain that it's impossible either when betting half hands of a shoe.
For that matter we have tried to operate our algos by a betting frequency close to 1/3 of total hands dealt and itlr results were a disaster.

To stay put in the vast majority of the times is the key to have success itlr as just a single or a couple of hands that went wrong mathematically could transform a wonderful sequence into a horrible one.  ..."


    I agree that fewer hands are often optimum vs. more hands. Especially if one is wagering a static bet at a predetermined spot (Which I do not). Your 33% may be accurate but I actually think for myself its actually less than 33%. I keep meticulous records and have noted (one wager) as my fewest ever wagered in one full shoe. My "most wagers" per shoe sometimes will approach 15-25 but only occasionally/ only in a shoe with several strong continuous events showing, which is rare. My typical number of wagers per 6-deck shoe is in the range of 8-12 placed bets.


Continued Success to All,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 23, 2023, 12:03:27 AM
Thanks KFB!

Your comments seem to confirm our conclusions and we're very glad about that because we think you are one of the 2-3 best scholars ever met in the forums circus. 

If hands are not predictable in any way (and math tells us that), betting a lot of hands makes the casinos' fortune; if some hands are partially predictable (and some studies suspect this), betting many spots just dilute such advantage up to the point to directly fall into the EV- ocean.

Since the almost totality of baccarat players consider any shoe as a source of possible profit, casinos are pretty certain to extract a lot of money from them by levels far greater than the HE.

Algos are smarter than those players as they were built upon the average probability of getting profitable shoes, neutral shoes or unprofitable shoes in relationship of general values compared to the actual source of results, the initial patterns shape, the intermediate patterns shape, the asym/sym hands current ratio, etc.

Moreover they are instructed to put the brakes on even after a single losing spot, that is waiting  longer than what a human normally does.

And more importantly, they are totally insensitive to previous shoes' results and about the actual bankroll as they simply do not care a bit.

OoOoOo

It's true that everything can happen anytime and independently of the production source, yet itlr some values are slightly more predictable than others and they are quite dispersed along the shoe course.
But this propensity is not constant per any shoe dealt, so forming a distribution's curve slightly but more and more oriented toward the positive right side yet suffering some negative and sometimes harsh natural deviations.
In our opinion, such propensity is due either for a substantial defect of randomness or for a very very close perfect randomness reproduction. Two different random walks operating.

Once again we ought to remember that casinos' interest is to offer perfect random shoes where the HE and normal deviations will get their full value, thus giving no hint to the players.
But even unrandom shuffled shoes could be a threat for us as they tend to produce too whimsical result lines that not necessarily belong to more predictable patterns. But those 'unrandom' shoes provide several steps corresponding to a 'random' model. It's just the different rhythm that cares.

Basically and regardless of the two algos utilized, there are three different situations each shoe will provide:

a) Long shoe, that is a shoe filling many columns (so forming many singles and/or doubles with few or any long streak(s);

b) Medium lenght shoe where the single-double/superior streaks ratio is about 1 or close to 1;

c) Short shoe, that is the opposite a) situation, where few columns are filled and there's an abundance of consecutive streaks and/or lack of singles.

As KFB pointed out, it's slight less likely that after a given number of hands dealt a) and c) categories will all of a sudden shifts from a to c and vice versa.
On the same token, b) more likely category to happen MUST stay at a more or less same level of probability for superior times than the a/c classes, so producing many same lenght or almost same lenght streaks and again the clustering effect is of paramount importance.

Since any shoe is a world apart, such three different categories move in direct relationship of what happened in the previous hands of the same shoe, privileging the old clustering effect.

See you in a couple of days.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on October 24, 2023, 11:14:56 PM
If baccarat outcomes would be "humanly" detectable, the game would have disappeared a long time ago.
So we could conclude that the human power over the results is inferior than the normal (uncontrollable) fluctuations and of course there's still the HE burden.

So our mind can't get long term valuable hints about those undetectable situations typical of this game as we're facing a machine.
Moreover players' minds are biased by the current bankroll status, so hoping beyond the real probabilities to promptly recover a deficit or to try to get 'sky's the limit' profits around any corner.

And patterns our mind is looking for are quite different than baccarat patterns, so we need to deactivate a kind of "normal" ancestral process.
Only a third part tool can do the job for us, one giving a lesser damn about money, current financial status or other bighornshit as being lucky or unlucky for that session.

Baccarat successions

Bac sequences are affected by a kind of "dynamical" bias related to the actual shuffling but is quite difficult to be grasped as it isn't mathematically shaped.
So we have to approximate what most likely will happen by not taking specific patterns as triggers. And implementing other features.

Since we know well that a single mechanical approach won't do the job (for the actual variance issues), we could utilize two simultaneous approaches slightly differentiated but both exploiting some common triggers until quite strong deviations will happen. Then both will stop their action.
To get a long story short say I'm referring to long consecutive BR streaks (for example).

Obviously there's the problem to know which approach to use and we've seen that generally algo A performs better than B.

The choice of privileging algo A vs B came out from having ascertained that many shuffling machines provide a huge quantity of constant valuable patterns.
So if you are in doubt to pick up a casino to risk your money at, definitely choose a machine producer. Sooner or later you'll be able to spot the proper rhythm to place your bets.

Since such machines were deeply investigated by statistical experts that assured their random production by presenting complicated formulas, we may infer that algo A likes the randomness.
A paradoxical conclusion.

On the same token, preordered shuffled shoes should follow the same randomness aim, we have no reasons to think otherwise.

Since we never know about a given production, we better be ready to use the backup algo that in the vast majority of the times will take care of the job when the main algo seems to fall prey of the variance or just because it can't do any good for supposedly unrandom models.

To get an additional hint about how both algos move say they are particularly sensitive of the doubles positive appeareance...

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 04, 2023, 04:27:42 AM
Side bets are for suckers. Yet some side bets are better than others

Besides the Dragon bonus bet made at Player side, being burdened by a 2.6% negative HE, every other baccarat side bet will crush you by more than a 7% HE.
The next less profitable bet is the F-7 bet.

Tie bet considers a 14.36% HE, Pairs are getting around a 11% HE.

People liking to bet Big Tiger (BT) or Small Tiger (ST) side bets should know that the average presentation is respectively 1.66% and 3.72%. Their payment is 50:1 and 22:1.

Needless to do the math, Big Tiger involves a 15.25% HE and Small Tiger a 14.33% HE.

Cumulatively the "Lucky 6" bet (getting 20:1 and 12:1 payment) involves a 16.68% HE.

There are many other side bets frequently not offered at common tables, so I'm not illustrating them.

Anyway the HE is not the primary issue we should be worried at.

In fact most side bets are "undetectable" meaning they need a lot of favourable conditions to be met, almost always by a coincidence of favourable parameters.

For the sake of this argument say we'll progressively wager a given side bet until we get a profit.

I guess everybody will think that the best bet to make is the Small Tiger bet, as 6-0 Banker situation vs a P drawing hand is a quite common situation to get through.
Moreover a B 6/0 situation vs a P drawing hand is entitled to win a bunch of situations where P gets a 6 or a 7 third worthless card while B getting a 0 card as a third card. So raising the payment.

More later

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 06, 2023, 12:35:53 AM
Side bets follow a conditional probability related to the actual deck composition, so the HE continuosly change as long as "important" cards are burnt or not from the shoe.

So Lucky 6 is particularly sensitive of 6s, then 7s/8s/9s; F-7 is sensitive of 7s and 0 value cards, then 2s,3s,4s,5s and 6s. Etc.

More key cards (different ranks) influencing a side bet apparition make it to be less attractive as we do want short gaps between two hits.
Then more cards are needed to form a final hand eliciting a winning side bet, less likely we'll get short gaps between two hits.

And besides the actual shoe composition, everybody knows here that 6 card hands constitute a minor part of the total outcomes.

In fact and discarding the P 6 standing point vs a B drawing hand, F-7 always needs 6 cards to form a hand.
Ties are affected in the same way as the more likely ties are coming out by 6-card hands.

Actually the Panda bet wins quite of the times by a 5-card hand and in fact gap hits of decent lenght are relatively common.   

Lucky 6 wins the vast majority of the times by getting a B 6 initial point vs a P drawing hand, a scenario that can't be bypassed for long by the deck and involving a 5-card hand.

Obviously it's more likely that a side will get a given point in two cards than in three cards (and then to surpass other favourable/unfavourable conditions). 

The number of cards utilized to form hands and its distribution is of paramount importance, think that only in 31.6% of the cases both sides draw a third card.

This is a reason why a "naturals" side bet (4 cards) won't be never offered again, either by its strong vulnerability by card counting and, more importantly for the sake of the argument, because of its incredible predictability by just tracking the gaps between two hits.
(On that hypothetical bet even a 30% HE wouldn't be sufficient to deny acute players' profits).

Therefore for any new hand dealt the odds to get a 6-card hand are 2.16:1 and it's reasonable to think that such probability will more likely move by singled and doubled appearances than in superior sequences.
Thus, for example, the Player Dragon Bonus bet mostly likes when 6 cards are utilized to form a hand (hands more probably intertwined by other hands getting an inferior number of cards used) and we know that itlr such probability is restricted by the average card impact and probability values.

See you later

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on December 08, 2023, 03:26:22 PM
Thanks Asym. Another excellent post.

"...So Lucky 6 is particularly sensitive of 6s, then 7s/8s/9s; F-7 is sensitive of 7s and 0 value cards, then 2s,3s,4s,5s and 6s. Etc.

More key cards (different ranks) influencing a side bet apparition make it to be less attractive as we do want short gaps between two hits.
Then more cards are needed to form a final hand eliciting a winning side bet, less likely we'll get short gaps between two hits.   ..."

]F-7 is sensitive of 7s and 0 value cards, then 2s,3s,4s,5s and 6s. Etc.[/b]

Can you elaborate more on the part about 0-value cards. I understand the importance of the 7-value card, as well as the ratio of 4,5,6,7 : 8,9. However, I haven't considered much about the effect of 0-value cards(removed to remaining), as to how they influence the F7 showing(other than the 7-card needs two face cards).


Thanks in advance,


Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 10, 2023, 09:57:37 PM
Hi KFB, thanks again!!

0-value cards are very important in almost any side bet construction (a relative exception is the decisive 6-0 two-card B point) as they entice the draws of either side.
So increasing the number of cards utilized to form a final hand (see above).

More likely F-7 card combinations are:

- 0s and 7s
- 0s, 3s and 4s
- 0s, 5s and 2s
- 0s, 1s and 6s

0s and 7s account a nearly 4x probability to form a F-7 than any other three card combination and obviously two 0 cards are needed.

In some way and simplyfing, best situations to look for are when the final portion of the deck is poor of 8s and 9s and rich of 0 value cards and 7s.
Those are very rare opportunities to encounter but involving a wonderful edge.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 12, 2023, 09:01:31 PM
Back to the BP hands problem.

Positive and negative patterns lenght

Generally speaking at baccarat betting toward "too long" positive sequences constitutes the same mistake as betting against "too long" negative sequences.
In fact a long term profitable plan must take into account the way more probable intermediate occurences as there's no way to know when harsh negative patterns will stop, let alone when branded positive patterns should overcome some "limits".

As humans we try to stop our plan after one, two or more negative occcurences then restarting the action after one (or more) fictional winnings, but when we simultaneously consider two or more mechanical plans, we'll see that sh.it is more condensed than we could imagine of. Invariably sequenced by more probable steps.

Think deeply of what I'm talking about now.

Casinos love long streaks and long homogeneous patterns as they give players the false assumption that those situations will overcome the negative "less detectable" counterpart.
Actually it's the main tool why HS rooms are built upon: hoping that players will feel "lucky" at some point. In the meanwhile casinos will collect. Well beyond the math edge.

Since HS players are pure donators and the reason why baccarat is the second best game casinos have to separate money from their customers (despite of a tiny math edge), we ought to think that playing against their hope is the recipe to win some money.

Algorithms cannot magically erase or invert a negative HE, they just provide spots where "luck" is more restrained than what players (and casinos) hope for.

And there's a rule that casinos particularly like: more hands are wagered, less dependency acts so enticing a kind of undetectable world.

This has nothing to share with the HE: casinos do not want to get $50 or so per every $5.000 wager. They want us to lose our bankroll faster than possible, confiding that the "unlucky" world will harshly overcome the "lucky" less likely counterpart.

Yes, mathematically each bet, no matter how's deeply investigated, will be EV-.
Actually and for the reasons already traced, it can't.

Say we're applying a given mechanical system: itlr singled and doubled situations will be balanced by the opposite longer negative situations and vice versa.
Naturally it'll be more likely to get clusters of 1/2 than getting consecutive clusters of 3+/3+s.
Then isolated 3+s situations than isolated 1/2 events and so on.

Now pretend to build two simultaneous diverse registration lines getting the same properties but getting a different rhythm.
You'll be surprised to see that a math "undetectable world" won't be so undetectable and again singles and doubles apparition will overcome the remaining possibilities.

See you in a couple of days.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 18, 2023, 03:58:39 AM
Consistently winning at baccarat is very hard, let's say (almost) impossible.
In fact there are no ways to beat itlr a fair coin flip succession (EV=0), let alone a taxed A/B succession where winning bets are payed 0.9894:1 or 0.9876:1.

Itlr at baccarat winning sequences will be almost equal than losing sequences but the payment will be always and invariably unfair.

Yet only apparently baccarat reproduces infinite coin flip successions for each shoe featuring slight dependent events that do not correspond to a perfect binomial probability. And by now the B propensity is not taken into account.
This is the only tool to focus our attention about.

In fact each outcome has a slight relationship with the previous results, very often not detectable but sometimes getting values capable to erase and invert the HE.

In other words, general more likely lines will surely be taken, providing the actual card distribution doesn't deviate too much from such expected values and, more importantly, when we can build subsuccessions tending to negate the perfect independency of an A/B model.

One of the best examples I can give is about streaks lenght.
Streaks lenght is one of the simplest and more reliable tool to approximate the actual card distribution of a given shoe.

Naturally BP Big Road streaks cannot give valuable hints to set up a plan upon and neither are the common derived roads. (Actually they do but being burdened by a lot of volatility).

In fact what we need is a plan capable to get more "expected lines" than we can, at the same time putting this plan in relationship of the actual shoe distribution.

That is the streaks lenght distribution is one of the best tool to assess if our future bets will be in touch of the rare EV+ field or simply belonging to the more probable undetectable whimsical world we can't do anything about.

Approximating a distribution doesn't mean to bet randomly and 'hoping for the best', just getting a hint about how the clustering effect may or not be working in the shoe's portion we're interesting at.

Remember that even at BR and common DRs, heterogeneous streaks (e.g. streaks of consecutive different lenght) cannot show up at the entire shoe. Unless very very unlikely long streaks come out at the same considered succession.

In some way, when a long streak shows up it's because something went wrong at initial two-card math favorite situations, in fact long math favorite two-card favorite situations constitute a way limited part of the whole results' scenario.

And since long streaks must catch up a more likely shorter streaks world by coming out clustered, we should put a stop when a long streak shows up, so waiting for a more likely streaks class/classes coming out clustered. Very often dictating us to consider a shoe as an "unplayable" shoe.

Say that after having built a given subsuccession we're considering doubles, triples and 4 streaks.
We'll merge such different streaks into the more likely possible categories: 2-3 and 3-4.
5 and 5+ streaks will be considered as "enemies" and actually most part of them deny the two-card math propensity.

Since we need to approximate the outcomes distribution, we'll consider 2-3 and 3-4 clusters and the 'isolated' 5/5+ streaks apparition.

It's now that the clustering effect (being a by product of more likely card distributions) makes a role as the number of 5/5+ clustered streaks will be more restricted than the number of "long" 2-3 and/or 3-4 clusters.
With some experience anyone could see that a supposedly "more likely" category (2, 3 or 4) that hadn't show up so far, shouldn't be included into the playable classes.

Finally, back to back shoes NOT providing a decent number of 2-3 and 3-4 streaks clusters are very unlikely to happen.
On the same line, 5/5+ streak events coming out clustered are again very unlikely to happen.

Providing a proper registration of the outcomes rhythm.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on December 18, 2023, 04:12:13 AM
You said:  "In fact each outcome has a slight relationship with the previous results, very often not detectable but sometimes getting values capable to erase and invert the HE." 

I Say:  "Now, in my opinion, comes the hardest thing to become habitual doing. You have to break the habit of allowing yourself to automatically interpret every experience by believing what happened-happened for a reason.

That is what throws off so many, so quick and so ruefully fast! Plain and simple!"

And furthermore,  at times, the results presenting themselves have absolutely no foundation or linkable reasoning to the previous results. 

And, when those presentments seem out of the ordinary, excessively long streaks, long chop chops, solid with numerous strong clumps of doubles or triples, 1-2-3-4s-3-2-1s, etc., etc., wager on them with strong positive progressions and keep pulling down the winnings and lose only the last one.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 18, 2023, 04:45:24 AM
Hi Al!

I reckon that 99% of the bac players try to follow trends, hoping that something will prolong until one unfortunate event will stop a possible winning streak.

Let me know how many 5/5+ streaks come out on average at every given shoe dealt.
I guess they are showing up by a nearly 2/32 probability, the remaining situations belong to a 30/32 intermediate world.

Obviously a very experienced player is capable to grasp the subtle spots where things would come out clustered or not, it's a very difficult task to achieve and that's why 99.9% of bac players donate their money at the tables.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on December 18, 2023, 06:23:34 AM
Anything and everything happens.  And it all happens in order, out of order and in the unforeseen order.  Catching it and capitalizing on it is what we do, easy at times and nearly impossible to do sometimes as well.  I want to bang them and bang them hard and quick and get out of there. 

Unlike what so many believe, preach and swear by, the longer you stay at the tables, the more you play and/or employ the repetitive mechanical wagering beliefs, etc., will only add up to guaranteed loss. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 18, 2023, 07:48:26 AM
Unlike what so many believe, preach and swear by, the longer you stay at the tables, the more you play and/or employ the repetitive mechanical wagering beliefs, etc., will only add up to guaranteed loss.

This statement sounds as the pure proof that baccarat remains an EV- game, isn't it?

as.

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on December 18, 2023, 12:20:21 PM
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on December 18, 2023, 07:48:26 AMThis statement sounds as the pure proof that baccarat remains an EV- game, isn't it?

as.



Absolutely in every aspect, everyday, every version. 

But..................
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on December 18, 2023, 01:58:33 PM
You said:  "Let me know how many 5/5+ streaks come out on average at every given shoe dealt."

But we know, anything can be a streak, or at least I do.  I do not (DO NOT) play/continuously wager for streaks of iar B or P, etc.  For myself, anything can be a streak.  Chop chops, doubles, triples, 1-2-3-4s-3-2-1s, 1s and 2s, plenty more, etc., etc. There are numerous presentations that appear in clumps with no justification. 

And while most all the bac players in B&Ms sit there, mouth physically opened, verbally saying WTF, etc., I am smacking the rack, hard and quick.  Not always, but plenty of sessions.  And that is where a Golden MMM schedule comes into play if adhered to with a solid 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd distribution.

I like it remember the following:  Opportunities in Baccarat are like sunsets, if we wait too long, we will absolutely miss them.  Each and every time.   
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on December 19, 2023, 05:00:26 PM
Thx AsymBacGuy for responding to my Q above.

________________________________________
Asym in another post above:

"...I reckon that 99% of the bac players try to follow trends, hoping that something will prolong until one unfortunate event will stop a possible winning streak.

Let me know how many 5/5+ streaks come out on average at every given shoe dealt.
I guess they are showing up by a nearly 2/32 probability, the remaining situations belong to a 30/32 intermediate world.

Obviously a very experienced player is capable to grasp the subtle spots where things would come out clustered or not, it's a very difficult task to achieve and that's why 99.9% of bac players donate their money at the tables...."

Well said.


My preference is to wager a Positive Progression against a negative-probability events' continuance.


Continued Success,


Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 20, 2023, 03:32:42 AM
Thanks Al and KFB for your replies!!!

Professionals

It's very likely that in recent times there are more professionals at baccarat than at black jack and, for that matter, bac pros are taking an advantage at least 10 times fold than poker players as vig and tournament fees do not account for a mere 1% or so HE, being way more than that.

Consider that bj players must bet each hand, fearing to get casino's heat while raising the wagers (if card counters). In addition actual rules make bj tables much less profitable than in the past.

On the other end, poker is particularly sensitive of volatility being either the important need to face inferior skilled players and to endure a natural negative variance that can last for long.

At baccarat we can't rely upon a math edge or taking advantage of possible inferior skilled poker players, we are just forced to deal with dynamic probabilities. Whenever we wish, with the amount we wish knowing that casinos consider bac players as pure donators.

Pros get their profits after having ascertained that not every couple of considered fighting events will follow a binomial independent (unbeatable) probability.
So an infinite sequence of bets made at a given event apparition must be superior than the counterpart at levels capable to invert the HE.

The deeper we're investigating the factors conditioning an A vs B event apparition, greater will be our probability of success, so transforming a supposedly random world into a kind of unrandom and more detectable world.

Think that shoe's results include several "simple" and "complex" steps:

-Simple steps are B and P apparitions classified by singles and streaks and streaks lenght.
It's the main tool the vast majority of players use.   

-A further classification consider how many times singles and streaks come out clustered or isolated.

- Then we should assign a value about the clustering class: clusters of one, clusters of two, etc.

- Building some sub successions where some clusters are slight more likely than counterparts as the shoe card distribution can't be uniformly shaped so enticing a general more probable line.

- Comparing such general "more probable" lines with the actual shoe we're playing at, favoring a kind of asymmetrical transitory probability getting at least a +1 step.

If a proper rhythm of considering outcomes is assessed, some values will be slight more likely to happen than counterparts and that's where our edge comes from.

That has nothing to share with the B general propensity and its related pattern situations.
What we need is to approximate at best the actual card distribution getting some spots more likely to show up than others.

See you next week.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on December 20, 2023, 09:43:45 AM
IMO, the single most important item that will bring advantages to pro bac play is a real M.M.M.  It will help curb emotions and frustrations that will build upon losses and add a defense to fallacy that will also set in upon winning.  But the player has to adhere to his method which isn't always easy.

I have written about M.M.M.'s in detail.  I know having one has helped me extensively.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 24, 2023, 10:13:11 PM
Thanks Al for your advice!
Actually I do not know much about MM as most of our bets are adhering to a flat betting scheme.

On the other end it's very likely that some pros do not adopt a FB approach, maybe increasing their bets (so risking an X bankroll fraction) at spots considered profitable.

As you sayed, for sure bac pros have learnt the attitude to be (almost) totally insensitive to the natural harsh losing sequences they're entitled to face sooner or later.
Easier sayed than done.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 25, 2023, 12:01:57 AM
Algorithms action

Our algos move around two distinct probabilities:

a) what should happen on average and by which more likely ranges;

b) what is really happening at the actual shoe dealt.

If all of the time a>b, well the game wouldn't exist and if b>a it wouldn't be offered either.

Thus per every shoe dealt we have to approximate the different weight of such distinct factors and, no surprise, most of the times a=b or close to it.

Obviously the a=b scenarios are the best to look for and will correspond to an "average card distribution", the main parameter algos aim at.

Algos won't look for strong deviations at either positive or negative side of the operation, they prefer a more likely steady flow of the outcomes, albeit limited at different (so less easily detectable) rhythms of classification.

Yes, card distributions are considered undetectable, everything happens anytime and anywhere but always by a specific level of probability.
And as long as shoes (and cards) are dealt, such probability values will converge more and more to the a) point.

Shoe card distribution

Besides of the important specific shuffle production factor slightly affecting the 'average card distribution' I do not want to discuss here, each shoe dealt will follow or not certain "more likely" "back-to-back" patterns getting different but limited values.

Technically some "random walks" (that is two opposite fighting scenarios) are more limited in their apparition than what a binomial or slight asymmetrical bac model dictates.
That's where algos' edge comes from.

Remember that while playing a binomial game (even if taxed) streaks of something are the real enemy to get rid of.
Obviously no specific streaks classes are chasable better than others even though and generally speaking shorter streaks are more likely to form clustered patterns than isolated patterns.
Especially whether we take into account two or more streaks classes.

But symplifing a lot, the best empirical factor to get an advantage from is that a 'more likely' streak not happening so far shouldn't be included in our betting operation. Regardless of its general propensity to show up.
That means that providing a proper results registration, streaks of low lenght actually happened and coupled together will get very low variance values.
Naturally along the shoe's course things change, meaning that quite often a long streak will erase a previous streak classes flow.

More later

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on December 25, 2023, 01:10:29 AM
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on December 24, 2023, 10:13:11 PMThanks Al for your advice!
Actually I do not know much about MM as most of our bets are adhering to a flat betting scheme.

On the other end it's very likely that some pros do not adopt a FB approach, maybe increasing their bets (so risking an X bankroll fraction) at spots considered profitable.

As you sayed, for sure bac pros have learnt the attitude to be (almost) totally insensitive to the natural harsh losing sequences they're entitled to face sooner or later.
Easier sayed than done.

as.

PLEASE:  Take a few minutes and read the following thread.

https://betselection.cc/index.php?topic=11117.msg68512#msg68512
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 26, 2023, 09:17:35 PM
Thanks for the link!

Minutes? It takes hours to digest all those points  :thumbsup:

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 26, 2023, 10:04:38 PM
Baccarat sequences are made by a mix of random and unrandom events

Besides of specific shuffling considerations, any bac shoe in the universe will belong to a sort of "random/unrandom" (R/  U.R) model.
When the R/ your ratio surpasses an average value (R is too high), there's no way to beat the game: we could be just "lucky", the real thing casinos aim for.
On the other end, shoes affected by a "relatively rare" marked  U.R denominator are heaven, providing to know what to look for.

Think about a binomial independent model, dissect the sequences in every detail and let me know if you'd find a profitable pattern to exploit.
And in fact our algos lose and lose at those sequences: no surprise, randomness can't be beaten, period.

People (experts first) thinking that every bac hand is completely independent from the past occurrences are wrong.
Nonetheless, is not so easy to detect bac unrandomness, mainly because it shows up at different ways per every shoe dealt.

One of the most important thing to look for unrandomness is that it expresses subtly and surely by "complex" patterns.
And naturally we are always destined to ascertain the  U.R by approximating the situations where it should work.

We've found interesting similarities with sports betting: there are infinite variables shifting an outcome, yet nothing will happen for sure.

More later

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on December 27, 2023, 03:04:55 AM
As you said:  "b) what is really happening at the actual shoe dealt."

And that is what can be so clear to one person, yet so fuzzy to another. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 27, 2023, 04:19:01 AM
Who we are to dispute the common notion that bac is an unbeatable game?

Answer: because we have managed to assign a code (albeit being imperfect) to each shoe dealt, a code capable to restrict the sd values typical of binomial models.
In poorer words, past hands make substantial variables to get advantage from.

What happened will be first considered by an asymmetrical or symmetrical fashion at different portions of the shoe, then added or substracted to what didn't happen.
Such operation will provide mathematical values (streaks specific lenght) where algos approximate at best the probability that a current state will change or stay and obviously we'll expect a slight greater number of restricted states in amplitude than superior (more deviated) situations.

If the above statement is true (and it will), it means that bac productions are anyway affected by a sort of unrandomness.

Since we consider outcomes under the lens of asym/sym situations, unrandomness doesn't get a univocal way to act, so increasing the probability to form a valuable and consistent amount of low lenght streaks (widely intended).

Proof is the code we'll assign at every bac shoe where some numbers will be slight more likely followed by a specific number or number classes.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 27, 2023, 04:22:10 AM
Quote from: alrelax on December 27, 2023, 03:04:55 AMAs you said:  "b) what is really happening at the actual shoe dealt."

And that is what can be so clear to one person, yet so fuzzy to another. 

Yep.
Following what happens at the actual shoe is paramount (IMO), definitely.

as. 
 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on December 27, 2023, 06:14:39 PM
Hi all,

AsymBacGuy in post #939 above:

"...Who we are to dispute the common notion that bac is an unbeatable game?

Answer: because we have managed to assign a code (albeit being imperfect) to each shoe dealt, a code capable to restrict the sd values typical of binomial models.
In poorer words, past hands make substantial variables to get advantage from.  ...,"

b]a code capable to restrict the sd values typical of binomial models.[/b]

That sounds promising. Though I am not 100% clear how you are applying your algos I do like that it appears you are attacking streak length(s).Though I think it could only be at brief moments and potentially only a very very few wagers per shoe. Maybe I'm wrong and not considering whatever you are considering.

    I agree anything a player does to lower SD values is good for the player. Meaning fewer wagers is nearly always superior to more wagers. I can not imagine trying to beat bac wagering every hand.
One of the greatest advantages we have at bac is ones ability to choose when to wager as well as when we do NOT have to wager(meaning not required to have a bet to play).
 
*MEMO Reminder--Do NOT play Bac solo at casinos that refuse to offer free hands.

RE: Asyms' topic of reducing SD values/ number of bets with the selective application of Algos.
Pardon me Asym as I may get a little off topic in the following,



I perceive much of what the casino does(Must wager every hand, drawing rules, cut/burn, bonus bets,new superduper layout designs with additional bonus wager...etc) is designed to increase the number of wagers the players will bet(which increases these hedges,i.e., Pushes) where the player absolutely can not win all bets with one outcome (but we can lose all). That is, T or pushed events are not designed to help the player.

**Re:Bonus bet layouts, new variation of games,...etc: As an addendum thought I do believe there is one layout in recent years that actually could be exploited(or at least Less Bad). I don't have one in my market, and I won't mention on a public forum. Most of u know which version I'm suggesting.

As a side note, I believe the main benefit to Bac vs most dice games is the fact it is finite(meaning marbles are removed from the jar after every draw). Like Asym hints at above---there will always be brief moments in a finite shoe where the advantage(or disadvantage) has fluctuated from expectation.

But I digress. So back to Asyms Topic:


Q: Asym , re: Restricting SD. Do you mean applying something like Markov Chains and say after seeing three events IAR(in a row), you are then trying to predict the distance to absorption??? Not at all? Other?

*Re: Markov Chains.

Though applicable to some casino games. It's my opinion we have to be careful trying to generalize from say true 2-outcome games such as coin flips (no ties or pushes as every single event must be 0 or 1), vs games like Bac where every single event can be (0,1, or other). These "other" outcomes hurt the bac player.  IMO because it is favorable to the casino to increase Ties (or pushes). The more the better for the casino as we sometimes "lose a win". Furthermore, we not only lose a win we also have shorter streak length (Hypothesis by Kungfubac). I have often pondered how I could convince the casino to offer a bet on Ties with a rule that high card wins (or low card). :)


Any thoughts or counter arguments?


Thx in advance,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 31, 2023, 11:12:32 PM
Nice thoughts KFB!!

I totally agree there's no way to beat the house by wagering a lot of hands unless we stay put for a way larger amount of hands dealt.

Besides the HE, it's practically impossible to guess many hands as possible 'triggers' float around steps sooner or later deviating 'too much' from the 0 value.
In such a model, perfect independent productions make no valuable points to be attacked.

At baccarat things are more restrained than what math dictates as each shoe is a world apart and deeply dependent to the actual card distribution.

Is this a "too general" statement to get a possible advantage from?

Bighorn.sh.it.

Anyone knowing the Smoluchowski's 'probability after effects' concept (not mentioning other statistical tools improving such idea) understands that an event or two (or more) events present sd values way lower than binomial independent models, providing to assign an "actual" code to each shoe distribution.

Of course such assumption needs to be stricly measured after testing large samples and we know that it's very important to consider productions under the same shuffling category.

Mathematically we have to dispute the common knowledge that after a given event the next event (or class of events) will get the same probability to appear.
Most of the times this is true, yet at a restricted part of possible outcomes, that's completely false.

Our studies have found out that alternating W/L flows are the least likely to happen or, better sayed, that are the least likely to stand for long, so privileging 'clusters' of something.
We do not know how much such clusters stand but we know they are more likely to happen, especially  when we raise the probability of success by betting two events vs an opposite event.

Suppose that we take care of a X event coming out 5 or more times in a row vs the same event showing up 3 or 4 times in a row.

General probability will say to us that 3 and 4 streak classes (p=0.75%) will be counterbalanced by 5+ streaks (p=0.25%).

From a math standpoint and assigning a 3 value to any 3 streak, 4 to any 4 streak and 5 to any streak equal or superior than 5, then considering back-to-back values we'll get such scenarios:

3-3 = 6
3-4 = 7
4-3 = 7
4-4 = 8
3-5 = 8
5-3 = 8
4-5 = 9
5-4 = 9
5-5 = 10

Each number will add to the next one so forming infinite (actually finite for that shoe) sums   performing pattern numbers slight more likely to happen. Especially after having ascertained that sums are sensitive to previous supposedly more probable situations, best if both two classes considered really happened at that shoe.

Obviously I'm not referring to the simple BP flow (and neither at common derived roads), as this effect is too restricted to be exploited (mostly as B>P so someway enhancing long B streaks).

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on December 31, 2023, 11:14:54 PM
The KFB hypothesis about ties needs a further post to be discussed.
Anyway I agree with him.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on January 01, 2024, 12:16:05 AM
"At baccarat things are more restrained than what math dictates as each shoe is a world apart and deeply dependent to the actual card distribution.

Is this a "too general" statement to get a possible advantage from?"


Math doesn't necessarily dictate the order.  Math might dictate an 'equalization' at times, but never the order and the 'presentment times' or not.

Another way to look at it is when math does apply, the presentments become schoolbook of sorts.  When math does not apply, the presentments are out of the norm. However, we can win hands following either way.  The only problem that becomes super pertinent, is your ability to side with both ways and capitalize on both.

Here, I have used this comparison many times.  The cop on the highway catching speeders in the morning.  For a week solid he will be at the same spot, same position everyday-exact time.  Then you don't see him there for weeks at a time. Then he is back and the next day you just 'knew' he would be there again, so you had the highway wide open-no cops back to that same spot.  Except for one problem, he decided to move to a different spot, the spot you were speeding at.

That is why (and the math junkies will cry foul) is playing every hand or a large majority of hands in every bac shoe you sit at, will probably take your buy-in most of the times, especially flat betting it out. 

IMO, one cannot play 'both sides' and win most of his wagers.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on January 02, 2024, 05:32:41 AM
AsymBacGuy in post 942:

"...At baccarat things are more restrained than what math dictates as each shoe is a world apart and deeply dependent to the actual card distribution.

Is this a "too general" statement to get a possible advantage from?

Bighorn.sh.it.

Anyone knowing the Smoluchowski's 'probability after effects' concept (not mentioning other statistical tools improving such idea) understands that an event or two (or more) events present sd values way lower than binomial independent models,..."


The key words (Restrained, Dependent) in your above statement are where a lot of players(and mathematicians) tend to have a difference of opinion.
I like to think of it as outcomes (i.e., event streaks) approach limits and these restrictive limits is why one outcome (say a total of 9) will not show 15 consecutive times for one side(P or B),  or why we never hear of P (or B) winning 40 consecutive times...etc.
I know this is an extreme example but IMO every single event outcome is never absolutely 100% independent (in card games such as bac).


Continued Success,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 03, 2024, 01:34:41 AM
Thanks again for your replies!!!

Very few baccarat experts and players know that overall (both sides) the most likely pattern occurence is...doubles.

Of course this finding collides with perfect binomial independent productions and naturally we need quite of time to get at baccarat the doubles predominance.

Now the issue could be extrapolated and dissected into infinite ways, anyway converging on the main reasons why BB and PP should come out slight more often than not.

Whereas it's theorically and partially difficult to understand why B doubles constitute a large part of the B outcomes, P streaks are mathematically oriented to stop at some point and the least possibility to get a P streak is, a double.

On the other end and assuming a constant math force shifting the results, even single runs (wholly considered at both sides) should be polarized in their long term apparition, but that's not the case.

Empirically we might assign an important (albeit diluted) role to the average shoe composition enhancing streaks stopping after two back-to-back scenarios.

Superior streaks than doubles (starting with triples) follow the same slight propensity and so on.

Think about that: if casinos would fear long streaks happening and such long streaks would be quite frequent to happen, well the game wouldn't exist.
On the other end, system players relying upon such relative improbability to get long streaks would go broke soon as one or more long streaks must happen.

Obviously it's one thing to know what should happen more likely and a completely different thing to decide what to bet at the actual shoe we're playing at.   

Algos rely upon a couple of different back-to-back registrations (in the vast majority of the times things change a lot after a given number of hands dealt) but always in order to get empty slots at given rows.
That is "hoping" to get empty column ranges than 1 at given rows, so discarding all the situations where a determined row is back-to-back filled (no play).

Example.

Say that your plan is to get either one single or one double after any 3(3+) BP streak happened.
If two (or more) consecutive triples show up we stop the plan, waiting for a fresh new 3(3+) streak. And so on.
No way to get an advantage (unless a very deep multilayered progressive scheme is in order).
Things do not appear to be more appealing when 1-gap triples gaps should be followed by larger than 1 'no triples' situations.

Just to give an example situations as 3-1-3-2-3-1-3-3-1-3-2-3 are very rare to happen (that is five isolated losing sequences in a row--in bold). But they happen.

Now let's consider different rhythms of results' classification, so trying to falsify the hypothesis that every registration will be insensitive to the actual production considered random and independent.

Good news is that a possible 4 or 5 losing 1-step clustered range cannot happen after thousands and thousands of shoes examined: in the vast majority of the times (well beyond the math expectancy) 1-step events MUST be followed by larger than 1 gaps.

Superior streaks classes need a more calibrated action to be exploited as further we stay from the singles and doubles appearance higher will be the variance acting.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 04, 2024, 09:11:54 PM
KFB wrote:

I have often pondered how I could convince the casino to offer a bet on Ties with a rule that high card wins (or low card). :)

I find particularly interesting this passage, can you elaborate a bit?

Thanks

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 05, 2024, 10:23:56 PM
Transforming bac shoes into codes

This is one of the most important tool we rely upon.
I'm presenting a short sample collected at a LV casino HS room.

After having applied a mechanical random walk stopping the action after some 'boundaries' and restarting it after one positive spot happened (and so on), we transform shoes as sequences of numbers.
Numbers refer to the lenght of clustering effect gaps.
So 1= no cluster, 2= just one cluster (a single back-to-back apparition), 3= a cluster of two consecutive apparitions and so on.
Numbers in brackets mean the last number wasn't precisely defined for the shoe ending up.   

Of course those sequences are not corresponding to an actual play, they just constitute a derived number succession.
Obviously each row is any shoe dealt.

4-6-5-2-1
9-4-1-1
3-3-2-3-3
4-1-2-8-(2)
1-2-1-1-1-6
2-3-1-3-2-(2)
2-2-2-2-1
2-8-7-6
3-2-3-14-2
2-11-2-1-2-7
2-1-2-10-1-5
1-1-1-1-3-2-2
7-2-1-6-5
1-6-1-7-3
13-3-3-1-1
2-1-3-2-8-3-(2)
3-9-1-3
6-1-9-1-9
1-1-13-2-1-4
4-5-2-2-5-5
6-4-1-4-4
2-1-1-2-1-7
6-5-2-1-3
1-8-1-2-6-3
6-2-4-5-5
2-2-5-1-2
3-10-6-8
13-1-1-1
14-16
1-10-7
5-13-1-9
3-3-5-5
7-2-6-3-9
1-8-3-6-5
2-4-16-3
1-6-1-2
3-1-5-1-4
1-1-1-1-1-12-3
2-3-1-1
1-2-5-11
3-2-3-2-1-4
7-10-5-7
5-8-2-1-2-3
7-3-3-2-4-1
2-4-1-5-5-4
6-5-1-3-3
2-3-9-6-2
1-5-5-3-6
3-3-1-5-2-6
3-3-1-6-1
1-2-5-2-2-(2)
6-2-3-3-3-12
3-2-2-4-3-3
2-3-1-10
15-1-3-5-2
11-4-5-4
2-3-2-3-5-1-2
2-1-2-3-2-1-2
6-1-3-6-6-3-4
3-1-1-18
1-5-5-5-1-4
8-1-1-3-2
3-2-1-3-4
4-3-1-2-2
13-1-14
4-4-5-5-(2)
5-4-2-2-5-6
2-10-7-4
7-2-10-2
2-6-5-2-8
1-4-5-10-2
2-2-5-4-2-1-2
4-2-1-2-1-7-1-2
2-1-1-3-1-4
5-2-1-10-2
7-8-8
1-9-7-6
3-4-3-4-7
3-5-1-6-5
1-3-1-6-5-3
8-7-8-4
10-1-1-2
1-6-3-1-3
3-7-14
8-3-2-2-2-2
2-4-6-10
3-1-1-8
2-3-1-7-1-2
11-1-8-5
1-4-3-1-7
3-7-3-2
3-2-2-4-2-6-2
8-2-1-3-1-2
2-1-2-5-5
4-13-2-1
3-2-2-1-4
2-4-3-2
6-1-5-5
3-5-6-2
1-1-1-1-8-4-3
3-2-1-8-2
1-4-4-1-4
2-9-3-6
2-1-1-1-2-3-4
7-3-2-6
2-5-1-1-1-3
7-3-2
12-6-8
7-6-1-5-4
4-4-1-15
2-1-9-6-2
1-4-3-2-2-6
1-2-1-1-5-5
4-1-1-5-5
4-1-1-7-1-2
3-2-2-2-11-2
4-3-1-3-6
15-4-2-1-4
1-1-12-1-1-5
2-3-1-3-2-5
5-2-3-2-2
3-7-1-2
2-3-5-1-1-4
1-3-4-5-9-4

Anyone familiar with my pages knows that I'm assuming a 0.75%/0.25% W/L probability and to simplify the issue we consider the number 1 as -3 unit loss and any other number different than 1 corresponds to +1 unit win.

Despite of being a ridiculous short sample, we think that it could give an idea about how the variance will act and about how to extract an edge.
In poorer words, we'are deadly sure to expect worse or better scenarios, yet this is what happened at the premise we've played at.

More later

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 06, 2024, 04:09:26 AM
You've seen those outcomes, so it's relatively difficult to spot the "more likely" patterns coming around and definitely some shoes are collecting huge sd values (e.g. consider the 1-1-1-1-8-4-3 shoe or the 4-1-1-7-1-2 shoe).
Naturally I'd assume that you consider 1s as negative situations and greater than 1s as positive events.

Thus we have instructed our algos to "understand" that we can't rely upon a "general" more likely line as each shoe is a world apart, so when a 1 come out their action will be somewhat restrained or stopped.

Let's measure such real live shoes codes:

34 times out of 123 scenarios (shoes) no one 1 came around, so 27.64% (instead of 25%) of shoes dealt formed all winning numbers. It means that way more than 1/4 of the spots haven't provided a single loss.

22 times 1s came out clustered (1-1..) and 85 time as isolated (1-greater number than 1), so even here the expected 1:3 ratio wan't respected (79.43% instead of 75%).

Even by taking into account a 'positional' back-to-back shoes featuring a given number and assuming 6 steps at a 6-possible number code we got:

First number being 1 (-3) and every other number (+1) = +27 units

Second number: +15 units

Third number: -55 units 

Fourth number: +16 units

Fifth number. +8 units

Sixth number: +27 units

Overall it's a +38 unit profit (before vig) where algos entice our action.

It's important to notice that algos are sensitive to positional results, in our example not suggesting any bet at the third number being too deviated from the norm.

In addition, note that here 5 out of 6 positional spots will make us a profit and of course when a proper random walk is acting we'll be more entitled to get a win than a loss as more numbers greater than 1 are expected to show up than the counterpart.
(A good idea would be to get rid of the positional number getting worse results, but I do not want to complicate the issue).

Next I'll present other shoe samples belonging to the same shuffling category transformed into codes.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on January 06, 2024, 04:39:08 AM
Willing to listen-willing to think-willing to realize what can happen.

"However.........But............might not, but always a possibility".

First of all, most everyone discounts what might happen because of lack of probability.  And in my opinion, that is dead wrong in the game of Baccarat. However............But............in baccarat anything and everything CONTINUOUSLY' lays in wait.

Why did I say, "that is dead wrong in the game of baccarat?  Because we play the short term, not the long term. 

If you sit and watch, you might very well miss great events by refusing to wager.  What can happen(?), a steak of 14 Bankers immediately followed by 9 Players, immediately followed by a series of 8 chop-chop singles and then 6 doubles of each Bankers and Players.  Or, maybe something ugly, such as a few singles, a single streak of 8 and then all 1s, 2s and 3s with every wager you attempt on the wrong side, etc., etc.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on January 06, 2024, 05:16:38 PM
What so many people do not, or will never recognize is the minimum and maximum numbers versus real numbers.

For the math freaks there is something called 'Set Theory'.  But, that can only apply if there are no 'reality numbers'.

In mathematical analysis, the maximum and minimums of a function are, respectively, the largest and smallest value taken by the function. Known generically as extremum, they may be defined either within a given range (the local or relative extrema) or on the entire domain (the global or absolute extrema) of a function. >>>But not how each hand will be presented from each shoe.<<<

As defined in set theory, the maximum and minimum of a set are the greatest and least elements in the set, respectively. Unbounded infinite sets, such as the set of real numbers, have no minimum or maximum.

In statistics, the corresponding concept is the sample maximum and minimum.  Please Note:  Statistics are a theoretical sampling of 80 hands of Baccarat, played out approximately 1,000,000 times. 80,000,000 hands and then each minimum and maximum result figured out for whatever valued defined, etc. 

So in reality and more importantly, in relationship to wager at the game, you can have maximum and minimum in statistical analysis.  However............But............in the game of baccarat and how each and every shoe will present its presentments, 80 + - times a shoe, will be 'real numbers'. 

And 'Real Numbers' have zero corresponding adherence to statistical results the highest of the highest amount of times.  And more likely, IMO the relationships, if any, can safely be classified as coincidental rather than statistical presentment.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on January 06, 2024, 08:10:34 PM
AsymBacGuy reply to my post above:

"...KFB wrote:

I have often pondered how I could convince the casino to offer a bet on Ties with a rule that high card wins (or low card). :)

I find particularly interesting this passage, can you elaborate a bit?
  ..."

I was just making a general comment on how the casino benefits from offering more /more bonus bets as these hedges weaken our placement of an EV+ wager. Especially when we can't win all bets on a single outcome but the casino can. I commonly see players wager all of three or four bonus bets along with a Tie, and then at the last second toss out a wager on a Side bet(P or B). IMO there are more optimum methods to win consistently(& most certainly wagers with a lower SD).

Re: Ties--I see a lot of players constantly wager a side wager(P or B) along with the Tie(which pays 8:1 in my casino markets). So a Tie bettor is not only wagering on a lesser quality bet but also hedging the side bet(We can't win both).

Re:Tie bet--Its certainly countable, however, at an 8:1 payout my opinion is that one would find more value counting another bonus wager such as Panda8 or Dragon7,...etc. If you are fortunate enough to play in a market that offers 9:1 on Tie bet then I would be a little more interested in Tie wagers.

"IF" I was going to put forth alot of effort counting Ties(@ 9:1) I would just make that my main wager(only wager if possible). Yet again the casinos(most) require one to also place a side wager(P or B) for the opportunity to wager a T, or any bonus wager. Most cas don't allow capping your neighbor's wager (At least in my market the capping is not allowed).


My earlier thought in above post: "I have often pondered how I could convince the casino to offer a bet on Ties with a rule that high card wins (or low card). :) ..."

None of my casinos offer such a wager/ I haven't seen anywhere in USA. Possibly offered in other countries or @ online casinos. However, if they did offer such a layout it would be very countable(& potentially lucrative) wager. Depending on the payout I would likely focus on the Low Tie.

Re: Tie Bettors.
I have encountered only one single player that uses the Tie bet as his bread/butter approach. He tracks/counts a few things. He hasn't given me the "secret ingredient" to his recipe (Nor have I asked). However, I'm guessing he tracks face cards and maybe even numbers too(0,2,4,..etc), and waits for a certain threshold count# is hit before wagering. Only wagering when the count is EV+ ,...etc.
When I play with him, I do allot a few wagers from my buyin to wager a T when and if he likes the setup(Often in the latter stages of the shoe), and typically only <=2-4 times per shoe.

*Note I have never pursued or researched or studied Tie wagers much so maybe something out there with the T bet that I do not know.



Continued Success,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 09, 2024, 09:55:23 PM
Thanks for your thoughts Al!

I've always thought that to ascertain a possible advantage, we have to measure it even though it could be affected by levels of imperfection due to several causes (variance, shuffling procedures, etc).

IMO only numbers could help to understand if there are vulnerable spots to take advantage from and of course the numbers I've provided are real numbers as those were shoes we put our money at.

As already sayed, algos 'approximate' a supposedly more likely flow of the outcomes at certain (few) determined spots by comparing several parameters that must converge into an univocal B or P bet placement.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 09, 2024, 10:50:17 PM
Here another sample of real live shoes coming from a CSM transformed into codes:

2-3-6-5-1-1
10-1-4-12
6-4-2-3-2-1
2-1-3-4-2-8
6-4-1-5-1-4
3-2-3-2-1-6
4-9-5-8
2-7-7-3-2
6-1-3-5-5-5
1-3-1-4-2-1-2
2-1-7-2-2-1
2-1-4-1-9-5
6-3-1-3-7
5-2-5-6-6-4
4-5-3-1-2-7
1-21-2-1-6
2-9-3-4-4
4-4-3-1-1-1-3
7-1-1-4-4
3-1-2-3-1-1
2-4-3-2-3-2
7-3-3-4-8
2-5-1-2-4
1-1-5-2-5
1-1-4-5-1-1-3
4-4-7-4
4-1-1-2-3-1
1-1-3-1-2
8-1-4-2-4
4-6-6-2-2
2-6-1-4-2-2
3-2-10-3-5
1-1-2-2-3-3-3
9-14-5-1
2-7-3-8-2
4-1-1-5-2-1
2-5-3-7-1-3
3-12-4
17-4-3-1
7-9-3-6-1
3-5-1-4-9
7-2-2-3-2-1
3-3-3-20
1-1-2-8-1-4
2-2-4-3-1-4
1-2-2-3-6
9-5-3-5
6-10-7-9
6-4-3-1
1-2-2-7-11
2-1-2-2-1-7
3-2-3-2-5-8
17-2-2-5-6
4-2-1-1-1-1
1-1-3-1-2-1-4
2-1-1-5-2-5-5
2-13-8-7
4-1-9-1-9
10-6-9
2-4-1-3-1-9
1-4-2-5-15
3-2-5-5-2
1-4-5-4-1-3
4-2-1-6-3
3-2-6-1-14
1-7-1-2-1-1
3-4-2-3-1-5
3-1-17
9-5-1-8-2
10-1-1-5
1-3-2-4-2
13-1-3-2
7-2-2-13-1
4-8-5-10
1-2-2-13
2-1-1-4-2
2-1-4-6-2
2-2-4-7-3-1-1
5-4-2-2-13
4-2-1-4-5-1
1-1-2-2-4-1-3
1-4-4-5-11
3-4-6-2-4
1-10-5-1-2
3-8-7-5-3
1-6-1-2-8-3-3
3-5-1-16
7-1-1-3-6
1-2-2-9-1
3-7-6-3-4
2-1-4-2-1
14-4
2-13-1-1
2-2-9-5-4
3-2-3-6
4-1-2-1-6-1
1-2-7-13
7-3-9
2-5-3-1-1
1-11-3-2
4-1-1-5-4
5-14-6
1-4-6-10
11-1-2-6
1-4-7-5
2-2-1-1-9
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on January 09, 2024, 10:54:00 PM
Reference 'Real Numbers':

Not only what you said, actual shoes played, etc., but Real Numbers to me, are those numbers that happen.  Not the millions of numbers from stat research. 

Real Numbers are those within each shoe at the table.  All the other numbers really do not matter. 

On the lighter side, if girls with big boobs work at Hooters, where do girls with only one leg work at?  IHOP.
(International House of Pancakes).
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 10, 2024, 12:27:39 AM
The CSM statistically insignificant sample (but we played such shoes) provided:

Out of 124 shoes, 36 shoes haven't shown up a single 1 (29.03%, expected range=25%) and 88 of them one or more 1s (70.96%, expected range 75%).

Out of the classificable isolated or clustered 1s (91), 66 1s came out as isolated and 25 1s as clustered.
At this CSM sample the slight propensity surpassing the 3:1 ratio at the previous sample evaporated as a proportional greater amount of 1s clusters came out (27.47% vs an expected range of 25%; isolated 1s 72.51% vs 75%).

Positional events (1s vs superior numbers) went like this:

First number = +10 units

Second number = -14 units

Third number = +6 units

Fourth number = +32 units

Fifth number = +7 units

Sixth number = -31 units

Overall a +10 units

The point is that regardless of the shuffling method, a general propensity (1s<than superior numbers) constantly acts, all other intermediate patterns need evaluations made on the previous patterns.
It's the card clumping factor. In fact at this sample, a way greater amount of huge numbers than the previous sample came out that must be balanced in some way along the same shoe.
Not everytime but most of the times.

Algos do recommend to play towards huge numbers (up to 6-8) only at the CSM productions: at this sample just 25 shoes haven't provided at least a 6 or superior number (nearly 20% of all shoes dealt).

Moreover each positional column roaming far from the 0 sum will be more likely followed by a column providing a positive sum, no matter what's the actual shuffle.

Then there's the specific streaks lenght tool.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 10, 2024, 12:50:31 AM
Quote from: alrelax on January 09, 2024, 10:54:00 PMOn the lighter side, if girls with big boobs work at Hooters, where do girls with only one leg work at?  IHOP.
(International House of Pancakes).

LOL  ;)

What about IHOP hiring girls with one leg but getting big boobs?
 
as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on January 10, 2024, 01:52:38 AM
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on January 10, 2024, 12:50:31 AMLOL  ;)

What about IHOP hiring girls with one leg but getting big boobs?
 
as. 

Can't top that, lol!

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 10, 2024, 02:00:14 AM
Now let's consider the same CSM sample from a specific lenght clusters factor.

Algo #1 random walk will suggest a bet towards 2-3 streaks clusters vs 2 or 3 streaks isolated situations.

W-W-W
W-W-W
W-L-W
W-L-W-W
W-W-L
L-L-W-W
L-W-W
W-W-W
W-W-L-W
L-W-L-W
W-W-W
W-L-W
W-L-W
W-W-W
W-L-W
L-W-L
W-W
W-W-W
W-W-L-W-L
L-L-W
L-L-W-W-W
W-W-L
W-W-W-L
W-L-W
W-W-W
W-L-W
W-W-W
W-W-W
W-W
W-W
L-W-W
W-W
L-L-W-W-L
W-L
W-W-W
W-L-W-W
W-W-W-W
W-W-W
W-L-W-W
W-L
W-W-W
W-W-W
L-L-W
W-W
L-W-W
L-W-L-W
W-L-L-W
W-W-W
W-W-W
L-W-W
W-W-W
L-W-W-W
L-W-W-W
W-W
W-W-W
W-L-W-L-L-W
L-L-L-W-W
W-W
W-W
W-L-L-W
L-L-L-W
W-W-W
L-W-W
W-W-W-W
W-W-L-W
W-W
W-L-W-W
W-W-W-W
W
W-W-W
W-W-L-W
W-W-L-W
W-L-L-W
W-W-L
W-W
W-L-W-L
W-L-L-W
W-L-W
W-W-W-W-W
W-W-W
W-W-W
W-L-L-W
W-W-W
W-W-W-W
L-W-W-W
W-L
W-W
L-L-W-W
W-W-W
L-L-W-W
W
W-W-W-L-W
W-W
L-W-L-L
L-L-L-L-W
L-W-W
W-W
L-L-L-W
W-W
W-W-L
L-W
W-L-L-L
W-W
W-W
W
W-W
W-L-W

Now the same strategy using 2 s and 4s (3s considered irrelevant)

W
W
W-W
W-W
W
W-W
W
L-W-L
W-W
L-W
W-W
L-W
L-W
L-W-W
W-W
W-L-L-W
W
W
W-W
W-L-W
W-W
W-W
W
W-W
L-W-W
W-W
W-W-W
W
W
W-W
W-L-L
W-W
W
W
W-W
L-W
W-W
W-W
L-L-W
W-W-W
L-W-W-W
W-W
L-W-W
W-W
W-W
W-W-W
W-L-W
W-L-W
W
W-W
W-W-W-L-W-W
L-W
W-W
W-W-W
W-W
W-W
W
W-W
W-W
W-W
W
W-W
W
W-W
W-L-W
W
W-W
W-W
L-W-W
W-W-L-W
W-W-W
W-W
W
W
W
L-W-W
W
W
W
W-W
W-W
W-W
W
W-W
W-L-W
W-W-W
W-W
L-W-W
L-L-W
W-L-W
W-W-W
W-W
W
W-W
W-W
L-L-W
W-W
L-L-W-W
W-W
W-W
L-W-L-W
W-W
W-L-W
W-L
L-W
W-W
W-W-L
W-W-W
W
W-W
L-W-W

Now 3s and 4s (next)

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on January 10, 2024, 03:12:34 PM
Thx Asym for post #956 above. Alot of good intel/appreciate u taking the time to share.




Continued Success,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 16, 2024, 09:54:40 PM
Thanks KFB!

Back to the 3-4 streak clusters (We've already classified 2-3 and 2-4 streak clusters).

L-L-L
L-W
W
W-W
W
L-W
W
W-L
W
W
W-W
W-W
L-W
W-W
W-L
W
W-W
L-W-W
L-W-W
W
L-W-W
W-L
L-W
W
W
W-W
W-W
W-W
W
W
W-W-W
W
L-W
W
W-L
W-L-W
W-W-W
W-W
L-W
W-W
W
L-L-W
W
W
W-W
W
W-W
W
W-W
W
W-L
W-W
L-W
W-L
W-W
W-L-L
W-W
W
W
L-W
L-W
W-W
W-W
W-L-W
L-W-W
W-W
L-W-W
W-W
L-L
L-W
W-W
L-W
L-W
W
W
W-W
W-L-L
W-L-L
W-W
W
W
W-W
W-W
L-W
W
W-W
W-W
W-L
W-L
W
W
W-W-W
W
L-W
L-L
W
W-W
W
L-W
L-W
L-W
W-W
W
W
W
W-W
W

W=147 L=47 (x3=141)

Nothing extraordinary, even though single Ws include several back-to-back wins and no loss (an obvious consideration happening at other streak clusters).
Out of 107 shoes, single Ws = 35 (nearly 1/3 of the total outcomes).

Comparing this small sample with 2/3 and 2/4 streaks we got:

2/3 streaks: W=249, L=92 (x3=276)  -27

2/4 streaks: W=188, L=41 (x3=123)  +65

Of course those data could easily change with other samples, the common denominator is that 5(5+) streaks remain less likely than what a binomial model dictates.
More importantly is the fact that doubles (2s) are more likely to produce a way higher amount of winning spots even if they could endure the variance.

Then, if a slight (but important) propensity is going to happen, the only obstacle we have to overcome is the permutation issue , best assessed by the old clustering effect.

After all, what happened could repeat once or more times but if it didn't happen so far it just remains in the 'potential world' we shouldn't give a fk about.
And this thing keep showing up at the various levels of clustering probability as 'isolated' patterns are the less likely to happen.

More later

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 17, 2024, 03:41:50 AM
Streaks gaps and the permutations issue rule algos action

Consider an A/B finite sequence (e.g. 12 steps) where (p)A = 0.75 and (p)B=0.25.

An 'ideal' distribution would be something like AAABAAABAAAB..etc
Actually this is the least likely scenario to get through as a perfect balanced A/B ratio came out, furthermore by a "perfect" pace.
In this case we are not worried about the HE as we know that the probability of success will be so defined that even if our winning bets we'll be payed 0.50:1, we'll crush the game.

Notice that here we're not trying to get a kind of positive variance as W=L.

Problems arise when:

a) The FINAL A/B ratio deviates too much from the expected values at either side (for example 2:1 or 2:2, etc) and obviously we do not know whether A or B are priviliged to show up;

b) Despite of a decent (low sd) final A/B ratio, temporary A (or B) situations are so clustered or so whimsically distributed that we won't know what and when to bet.

Whereas a) factor can't be resolved other than from a long term statistical point of view (huge variance), b) factor could be easily evaluated by "more probable" lines where streaks lenght make a decisive role in the betting options.

One of the main tools our algos rely upon is the probability any shoe dealt will fill (or not) certain rows (that is the streaks lenght) but always by "gaps", meaning that consecutive streaks filling second or third rows are not included in the process as no gaps could be classified here.

If you'd consider geometrically second, third and so on rows BY GAPS, you'll see that empty slots will be more and more asymmetrically shaped up to the point that it's a child's joke to "guess" when consecutive empty slots will take place, almost always by a different shape happened so far.

Providing a proper random walk, of course.

In fact every row is in direct relationship of the long streaks probability: further we consider rows, greater will be the probability to get higher than 1 gaps, at the same time getting rid of the consecutive long streaks making no room to form gaps.

More later.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 17, 2024, 04:40:01 AM
Taking the same shoe sample let's see how third row gaps went (practically those are single/double streaks sequences):

2-2-1-1-9-5-(2)
1-4-7-5
11-1-2-6
1-4-6-10
4-14-6-5
4-1-1-5-4
1-11-3-2
2-5-3-1-1
6-3-9
1-2-7-13-1
4-1-2-1-6-1-1
1-11-3-4
4-1-4-3-1-4-3
3-2-3-8
2-2-9-5-4-(2)
2-13-1-1-(2)
14-5
2-1-4-2-1-1-4
3-7-6-3-4-6
1-2-2-9-1-5
6-1-1-3-6-5
3-5-1-15
1-6-1-2-8-3-3-4
3-8-7-5-3-3
1-10-5-1-2-5-3
4-4-1-4-4-2-(3)
3-4-6-2-4-1-6
1-4-4-5-10-1
1-1-2-2-4-1-3-3
4-2-1-4-5-1-4-1
5-2-15-2-1-4
5-4-2-2-13-4
9-3-10-1-8
2-2-4-7-3-1-1-2
2-1-4-6-2-5
2-1-1-4-2-2-2-1
1-2-2-13-1-1-4-2
4-8-5-11
7-2-2-13-1-5
12-1-3-2-8-1
1-11-3-4-5
10-1-1-5
9-5-1-8-2-4
3-1-16
3-4-2-3-1-5-8
1-7-1-2-1-1-6
3-2-6-1-17
4-2-1-6-3-3-(3)
1-4-5-4-1-3-5
3-2-5-5-2-1
1-4-2-5-16
2-4-1-3-1-13
10-6-9
4-1-9-1-9
2-13-8-7
2-1-1-5-2-5-5
1-1-3-1-2-1-4-5
8-6-6-2-5
4-2-1-1-1-1-1-6
16-2-2-5-6
-2-3-2-5-8-4
2-1-2-2-1-7-1
1-2-2-7-16
4-11-4-5-8
6-4-3-1
7-10-7-9
9-5-3-5
1-2-2-3-6-1-5
2-2-4-3-1-4-1
1-1-2-8-1-4-2-3
3-3-3-19
7-2-2-3-2-1-3
3-5-1-4-9-7-(2)
7-9-3-6-1
16-4-4-1
1-1-5-3-3-4
3-12-4
2-5-3-7-1-3-1-2
4-1-1-5-2-1-4
2-7-3-8-2-2
9-13-5-1
1-1-2-2-3-3-3-3
3-2-10-3-5
2-6-1-4-2
4-6-6-2-2-1-(2)
8-1-4-2-4-4-4
1-1-3-1-2-4-4
4-1-1-2-3-1-1-3
4-4-7-4
1-1-4-5-1-1-3-2-1-3
1-1-5-2-5-2-5
2-5-1-2-4-4
7-3-3-4-8-3
2-4-3-2-3-2-1-2
3-1-2-3-1-1-4
7-1-1-4-4
4-4-3-1-1-1-3-4
2-9-3-4-4-(2)
1-22-2-1-6
4-5-3-1-2-6
5-2-5-6-6-4
6-3-1-3-7-(2)
2-1-4-1-9-5-4
7-3-2-1-2-4
2-1-7-2-2-1-(2)
3-1-2-1-1-4-5-2
1-3-1-4-2-1-2-10
6-1-3-5-5-10
2-7-7-3-2
4-8-5-8
3-2-3-2-1-6-6
6-4-1-5-1-4-2-(3)
2-1-3-4-2-8-1
6-4-2-3-2-1-3
10-1-4-18
2-3-6-5-1-1-1

Now you might wonder why some "uninterested" players will patiently wait then betting 10k-20k after a couple of consecutive 1s came out in order to get any number different than 1.
Are they gambling?

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on January 18, 2024, 03:01:02 PM
AsymBacGuy at the bottom of post #963: "...Now you might wonder why some "uninterested" players will patiently wait then betting 10k-20k after a couple of consecutive 1s came out in order to get any number different than 1..
.."


:thumbsup: Like
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 21, 2024, 10:00:04 PM
Quote from: KungFuBac on January 18, 2024, 03:01:02 PMAsymBacGuy at the bottom of post #963: "...Now you might wonder why some "uninterested" players will patiently wait then betting 10k-20k after a couple of consecutive 1s came out in order to get any number different than 1..
.."
:thumbsup: Like

Hi KFB!  :)

Actually not every successful player will bet as huge as 10-20k per hand, surely all successful players will bet very few hands per shoe, the best being just one-two (or zero) bets per shoe.

In fact, more bets we'll place, greater will be the probability to fall directly into the EV- world as the profitable spots are quite rare to happen.

Technically those spots are 'convergence of probability' situations where different parameters belonging to a given random walk do converge to a more probable statistical line.

It's like using a kind of "score" by assigning numbers to specific r.w. patterns. Whenever for each pattern the score is negative or neutral or too light positively deviated, we'll simply do not bet (even though we would have been winners). In the only other scenario a bet is suggested by the algorithm.

It's obvious that everything revolves around the clustering effect of various patterns elicited by the same BP succession.
More clusters of something are happening (that is more numbers different than 1 are showing up) dictating a same hand wager, better will be the probability to catch "prolonging" clusters.
In poor words we'are just "approximating" that clusters won't stop right at the spot considered worthwhile, always setting up the "minimum" profitable value, that is one step going forward.

After having reached that minimum cutoff point, we should not be interested to bet anymore as we will simply find ourselves in the position of gambling.
Such "gambling" attitude, providing to assess carefully the starting points of the clustering effect, could be a (minor) viable tool for those who are capable to manage a positive betting plan without risking to hope for too long positive sequences erasing previous losses.

Anyway if you'd measure large shoes data (enduring almost every possible variance deviation) you'll see that it's way better to win few spots than chasing (challenging) the inevitable short positive successions typical of baccarat.

More later

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on January 21, 2024, 11:55:51 PM
QuoteHi KFB!  :)

Actually not every successful player will bet as huge as 10-20k per hand, surely all successful players will bet very few hands per shoe, the best being just one-two (or zero) bets per shoe.


as.

With all due respect Asym.  I have played dozens and dozens of high limit rooms with high limit tables, anywhere from $100-$300 minimums and $10,000 to $25,000 maximums per hand.

I have never witnessed any single bac player wagering one or two hands and calling it a day.  I have witnessed numerous bac players absolutely, 'turning it on' with much larger wagers after a while, or at a certain point, and only for a few hands, say 2-3-4 or 5 for the larger wagers, but they will also wager smaller amounts as well.  But never coming in, wagering 1 or 2 and that's it.

As well, a few shoes to the people I play/played with, per shoe would be something like about 12-15. 

All B&M experience from the previous 3-4 decades. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 22, 2024, 03:15:14 AM
Al, I believe you, wagering small sums between serious bets is a perfect reasonable way not to get any heat from casinos.

"Successful players" I was referring to are people who like to get the best of it on every cent they put the money at.
Mostly I'm talking about Vegas players who are well aware that casinos consider baccarat as a unbeatable game, so they do not need to camouflage their action being labeled as worthless.

Technically I'm deadly sure that unless a huge betting spread is adopted, wagering 12-15 bets per shoe strongly reduces/erase/invert the EV+ and actually such people is interested to know that some "rare" spots could be EV+.

I mean that it's almost impossible to convince a part of HS no-bac players that baccarat is beatable by being more right than wrong at 12-15 hands bet per shoe.
For the remaining part (best baccarat scholars), the answer is a sure "no", an answer we take as a papal bull, confirmed by our findings.

Several times I've publicly invited youtube geniuses, system sellers and forums "I can't lose" claimers to mentor some HS people gladly accepting to concede a percentage cut of the winnings (worth thousands of $$), but with the disturbing downside that to avoid consequences such "winning players" must be right beyond any shadow of doubt (say capable to overcome a possible 4 or 4.5 negative sd value).

So far, nobody accepted the challenge but us.
Let me know if some "Banker is the best bet no matter what" or "I got a 53% winning rate" or other fkng bullsh.it claimers want to get a formidable freerolling on their money (but only at their money).

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on January 22, 2024, 03:53:28 AM
I understand.

Just to throw it out there, bankers side wagers might very well be a 55%, even a 60% or 70% advantage in a shoe.  I have posted them. 

But..............and However, on the other hand so is the players side, the players side might be a huge percentage over the bankers side.  I have posted those also.

And if it's not a solid bankers or players when the gambler starts wagering it, the forthcoming hands can immediately change in the opposite direction. 

Problem being, most bac players can not read randomness in a sense to give them an advantage.  Some can, most can not. 

This is why I lean towards (at least try to) building up a few wagers with positive progression and then following my strict M.M.M. That does give me a concrete barrier and advantage with win money.

But as far as 'mechanical triggers', 'betselection strategy', etc., there is none that will work consistently and repeatedly more than 50% of the time, IMO.

Hence, the fewer wagers the better. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 23, 2024, 10:17:31 PM
Hi Al!

Actually there are many mechanical approaches getting a very slight advantage over the house but to really succeed they need several parameters to converge into univocal betting spots.
And such parameters are more in direct relationship of the actual shoe production than about long term statistical findings.

Long statistical data help us to understand the more likely random walks movements roaming or distancing from a 0 starting point.
Obviously most part of them consider small or moderate steps at either left or right direction, an issue best studied by "streaks" lenght (widely intended as a 6 or 7 chopping line is a streak).

Then even such streaks may be classified into "isolated" streaks, two back to back streaks (cluster of two), three streaks (cluster of three) and so on.
Naturally any specific streak will fight against superior patterns (that is for doubles singles are ininfluent, for triples doubles are ininfluent and so on)

That's now that the actual shoe production becomes the main succession to be interested upon as each card distribution is asymmetrically shaped by definition and itlr everything will be equaled (or close to it).

If a distribution is asymmetrical even streak clusters will be asymmetrically grouped even though we do not know which streak classes will be clustered unless they came out at least one time.
The trick to consider two specific streak classes simply facilitates the problem as now we need each class to show up at least one time before making them to fight vs opposite streaks.

The beauty of baccarat is that streaks groups cannot show up isolated for long or, better sayed, that every shoe dealt in the universe is virtually destined to form at least one streaks cluster.
Sometimes such streak clusters are so long to prolong for the entire shoe and of course longer the streak classes considered, greater will be the probability to not cross an unfavourable streak not belonging to the classes wagered.

More later

as.   
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 24, 2024, 03:48:54 AM
Independently of the random walk utilized, longer streaks (say 5-5+) tend to dispose themselves by three different shapes:

a) Singularly interspersed between lower degree patterns (singles/doubles/triples and 4s)

b) Diluted or not showing up at all

c) Clustered (back to back) at various levels of consecutiveness and density.

Each shape of presentation has its merits with important practical reflexes.

Shape a) is the more likely course of presentation and could be applied at lower streak levels (4s or 3s).
Actually a (risky and unnecessary) multilayered progressive plan adopted to get 5s, 4s or 3s showing up as 'isolated' cannot be wrong for long as the isolated/clustered streak ratio tends to produce low sd values.
Problem is that by adopting this strategy we rely upon a "general" probability that could be voluntarily (virtually) altered once casinos know what we're doing.

Shape b) is not so rare to happen as we'll face more shoes presenting zero or one/two 5-5+ streaks and even 4 streaks than shoes producing a way larger number of expected 5-5+s.

Shape c) is very interesting as generally speaking, clustered 5-5+ streaks will make more room to inferior streak classes to happen in the next portions of the shoe.
Notice that whenever a 5-5+ streak cluster shows up, we're somewhat discontinuing a constant losing betting strategy as what we should interested in is to approximate the streak "ranges" per any shoe dealt getting rid now of the clustering effect (so we need a different event or a couple of different events to start or restart the r.w. action.

To get an idea about how our two algorithms work, instead of considering the filled BP spots (or every other either/or succession whatever intended) think about the empty areas shapes limited by the different columns lenght and rows interruptions.
Obviously deeper we go down in assessing such empty slots, greater will be the probability to get consecutive rows not filled by actual hands. Always considered by empty 'ranges'.

Even though algorithms work by numbers (probability after effects), with some practice such propensity could be geometrically ascertained up to the point that even a random betting at the proper times will pick up more wins than losses.

Someway algorithms base their action upon a ultra selected "negative" multishaped probability oriented to get something heterogeneous at one side and homogeneous at the other one.
At the end suggesting bets in order to get empty 'ranges' and not filled slots.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on January 26, 2024, 03:43:57 AM
Hi Asym. How are the tables treating you.

Above u say: "...  longer streaks (say 5-5+) tend to dispose themselves by three different shapes:

a) Singularly interspersed between lower degree patterns (singles/doubles/triples and 4s)

b) Diluted or not showing up at all

c) Clustered (back to back) at various levels of consecutiveness and density.

Each shape of presentation has its merits with important practical reflexes.

Shape a) is the more likely course of presentation and could be applied at lower streak levels (4s or 3s).
Actually a (risky and unnecessary) multilayered progressive plan adopted to get 5s, 4s or 3s showing up as 'isolated' cannot be wrong for long as the isolated/clustered streak ratio tends to produce low sd values...."

Q1 In the BOLD you are saying the optimum method to catch a >=5IAR streak(e.g., ppppp or bbbbb) is to watch for them to be positioned in a cluster of 3iar/4iar streaks(e.g. ppp bbbb ppppp)
Yes No ??

Q2 If you were assigned the task to win 5 bets in a row would it not be easier to try and catch say two wins from a 3iar streak and maybe three more wins from a 4iar streak(Since 3iar and 4iar are indeed in most shoes)???

Yes no other??


Thx in advance,

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 30, 2024, 09:49:45 PM
Hi KFB!

Say that in terms of different patterns extracted by infinite random walks the less likely situation happening for each shoe is a balanced or close to balanced ratio, obviously influenced by the various portions of it.
After all, gambling is a game of clusters at either way, meaning that what we have won at positive (clustered) situations will be easily lost at negative clustered sequences.

The trick is to adopt random walks capable to shorten the streaks lenght as, generally speaking, baccarat is a game where streaks are better defined in their average appearance than a 50/50 independent model along any shoe dealt (thus considering an infinite succession of 72-78 resolved hands).

Q1/A1: I wouldn't bet ever toward 5/5+ streaks as our two random walks eliciting the algos action   find very few occasions to expect them. As an interesting part of shoes do not present any such (long) streak.
So in such instances any streak is valuable to be attacked up to the point that even 4s sometimes do not happen for that shoe.

It's true that moderate streaks (as 3s or 4s) coming out consecutively (so without any inferior pattern intertwined) make a relative more room to expect a longer streak (a 5/5+ streak).
Sooner or later some shoes must come out by filling a way shorter than average number of columns and this can only happen by the shoe producing long streaks.

Q2/A2: Good question.
By far the best probability to get 5 or more wins in a row is by "hoping" that A or B or both will take a uniform clustered direction (singles in a row, singles/streaks or streaks/singles, etc).

More later

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on January 31, 2024, 04:13:25 AM
Suppose we want to adopt a more risky progressive plan, one which can get us innumerable wins with very very low or insignificant levels of probability of losing the entire bankroll.

IMO first we should consider random walks producing many "low" or "moderate" streaks, so getting rid of the singles production thus considered as neutral events.
Then and even though long term statistical findings teach us that doubles are slight more likely to happen than any other pattern, only the proper assessment of the actual shoe dealt will help us to find what and when to bet.

Casinos prosper about the unlikelihood that players will guess right for long by ratios surpassing 51.2% at B bets and 50% at P bets.
A progressive plan doesn't shift such ratios in our favor, unless the average streaks distribution provides low sd values, up to a 4 or 4.5 sigma (e.g. a 16 or 20 B or P streak or any other unlikely proportional deviation).
And providing the use of proper random walks, it fkng does.

If the time works for casinos, let the time be working for us.

Basics

How many 5/5+ streaks per shoe are going to be produced on average when the main random walk is acting?

Following data come from thousands of real live shoes dealt at MonteCarlo casino where 8 decks are utilized and almost two decks are cut off from the play.   

Zero 5/5+ streak account for 13.17%

One 5/5+ streak account for 34.73%

Two 5/5+ streaks account for 34.73%

Three 5/5+ streaks account for 14.97%

Four or more 5/5+ streaks account for 2.39%

Since per every shoe sample made of nearly 60 hands dealt we'll expect on average a slight lesser amount than four 5(5+) streaks percentage (after 64 hands it's 3.125%, so now more than that), we know we're getting an edge as the average statistical findings seem to strongly deny such expected value.

Obviously in practical terms it makes a lot of difference if we'd start up to bet against the 5/5+ streaks happening after a new column is filled than wagering after a given streak shows up.
We'll see this issue next.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 04, 2024, 10:05:10 PM
Here another set of thousands of live shoes dealt by preordered shuffling (same HS room); notice that the previous shoes data were extracted by a Shuffle Master Machine: 

Zero 5/5+ streak account for 14.51%

One 5/5+ streak account for 28.49%

Two 5/5+ streaks account for 29.56%

Three 5/5+ streaks account for 19.89%

Four or more 5/5+ streaks account for 7.52%

Comparing those two sets of data we see that at the second sample one and two 5/5+ streak shoes concede more room to three and four(4+) streak shoes.
In addition at both data zero 5/5+ streak shoes percentage is almost corresponding and one and two streaks categories keep being distributed "even money" between themselves.

IMO streaks lenght and average distribution are the best indicators of the binomial model movements affected by a kind of asymmetry (bac rules, key cards impact acting at finite sequences, etc).

So for example at the first sample we'll get an average 82.63% cumulative probability to cross zero/one/two 5/5+ streaks per shoe; at the second sample the same probability decreases to 72.56%.

At any rate no matter the shuffling procedure employed, shoes presenting one and two 5/5+ streaks account for respectively 69.46% and 58.05% of total shoes.
At both data the zero 5/5+ streaks percentage (13.17% and 14.51%) acts as a kind of constant "bonus".

It's quite obvious to deduce that we shouldn't really interested to guess what precise patterns will show up along any shoe dealt (so there's no point to bet against streaks formation around any corner), just to assess the more likely classes of precise streaks distribution happening per every shoe dealt. Thus being able to understand the acute damage (or favor) 5/5+ streaks will get to us on average and in important relationship with the actual shuffling procedure.

Those are just the basics, we need a plan to try to get the best of it.

See you later

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 05, 2024, 04:10:41 AM
Betting plan

Baccarat world is made by infinite situations that we could restrict by considering streaks.

More hands we'd try to guess lesser will be our profits, or better sayed, greater will be our losses.
There's no fkng exception about that, believe us.

Mathematicians and 'so called' gambling experts will say to us that no matter how's diluted our betting, the EV remains negative yesterday, now and in the future.

This is a complete false statement as it considers any shoe dealt springing from the same shuffling source.
We've seen that it makes quite a difference when a shoe is shuffled by a machine or manually or by "only gambling gods know" preordered shuffles.
The 'cut' made by players (when allowed) isn't a proper tool to break the shoe sequences, it just postpones them.

Hence we must be prepared to deal with sd values (at both positive and negative ways) and machine sd values are way better controllable than other shuffling procedures.
Next are manually shuffled shoes and at the bottom of the list come preordered shuffled shoes where we do not get any hint about how they were shuffled.

1) How many 5/5+ streaks are we expecting from any shoe dealt?

We strongly think that percentages presented above are accurate, we do not care less about millions of shoes dealt especially when a homogeneous source wasn't considered (so you could put in the trash every data you've collected unless coming out from the SAME source). In the same way we shouldn't give a fk about B/P long term raw percentages as sure as hell they will be approaching more and more the 0.5068/0.4932 useless ratio.

We need to assess the average streaks distribution after having devised one or more proper random walks.

After having classified every "long streak" happening as belonging to the 5/5+ category, the positional distribution of them is paramount as way more than half of the times we'll expect zero or one or two 5/5+ streaks happening along the entire shoe; obviously more such long streaks happen at the start or intermediate parts of the shoe greater will be the probability to get a shoe surpassing the inferior than three/superior than three streaks number ratio.

Remember that per every seven shoes dealt on average you'll get ZERO shoes presenting a 5/5+ streak, and at the worst situation you're almost 3:1 favorite NOT to get three or more 5/5+ streaks.

More simply, well more than half of the shoes dealt will include just one or two 5/5+ streaks whatever distributed.

Best scenarios and worst scenarios

Well, best scenarios are when zero 5/5+ streaks will happen along the entire shoe (nearly 13.8% of the times), worst scenarios are when the "four" cutoff streaks number  will be reached or surpassed (say it's  about a 5% value or so).

So we're nearly 2.77:1 favorite to get zero 5/5+ streaks than having four or more 5/5+ streaks at any shoe dealt.

Problems arise when we have to decide the more valuable spots to deny such possible 5/5+ streaks

We'll see this issue in a couple of days.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 05, 2024, 04:37:21 AM
BTW: try to spot two different mechanical random walks getting a slight different pace capable to exploit the most asymmetrical bac features and you'll get one of the solution to get a sure indeniable long term edge.

We'll see how a multilayered progressive plan will get the best of it.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 06, 2024, 10:43:32 PM
IMO and according to our data, baccarat outcomes move around a kind of constant 'asymmetrical' propensity widely intended.
We've found that streaks are a better target to set up a plan about and they always start after a same result happened at least twice.
On the other end, when a same result happened 5 or more times, we are not interested anymore to assess the streaks destiny as longer streaks most of the times are affected by a kind of "math inversion" due to the third(s) cards impact.

In poor words, we think that the 2-5 streaks range is the best to risk our money at.
Moreover we know that the 'overalternating' results succession is slight less likely to happen, privileging back-to-back same outcomes where by far the more probable cluster is one (and at a lesser degree, two).

Back to the 'asymmetrical' feature.
The interesting point is that the baccarat asymmetrical world tends to make a decent portion of symmetrical events in a row, meaning that same streaks lenght or two streaks classes are slight more likely to show up clustered than at a perfect binomial independent symmetrical model.
Obviously the very slight propensity to get the opposite event already happened makes a role in that, yet and generally speaking successful random walks do not take into account B and P hand sequences as they're too much influenced by low levels of "statistical limitation".
And, more importantly, no preordered mental schemes based upon too long term findings (for example knowing that P singles and P doubles are slight more than 3:1 favorite to come out than P triples; or that B streaks are more probable than B singles, etc) will help us.

If we want to play baccarat with a possible edge we should understand that "common" stats won't help us too much, otherwise the game wouldn't exist.

The whole EV- picture presents many EV+ spots

See you later

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 07, 2024, 03:40:37 AM
The main factor why bac players keep filling casinos' pockets is because they try to get a utopian task to guess longer winning streaks than losing streaks where sure as hell the long term net sum is zero (before HE).

More acute players have studied both the average "prolonging" and "stopping" pattern expectation of what the actual shoe produces in relationship of a "general" probability.
When such ratio strongly differs from a more likely flow of the outcomes (say when long streaks came out) they simply do not bet as such long streaks may easily belong to "math inversion" events.

In some way long streaks should be considered as negative bj card counts where positive situations more often than not are not coming out so easily in the remaining portions of the deck.

The beauty of baccarat is that long streaks (longer than 4) still implement a "finiteness" attitude verified by checking out long term live samples.

Let's consider the issue more technically, so by using numbers:

If a 5/5+ streak accounts for a 5 number, a 4 streak for a 4 number and so on about inferior streaks (up to 2), any shoe dealt will provide a final total number made by a simple arithmetical operation.

Now we want to add the previous streak number with the next number, so for example a 5/5+ streak followed by a 4 streak accounts for a 9 sum (5+4).
At the next streak occurence the last 4 number could transform into 6 (4+2), 7 (4+3), 8 (4+4) or 9 (4+5).

Each sum of two adjacent streaks will form a number succession where some numbers can't be produced.

For example, after a 5/5+ streak happened, the most inferior possible number is 7, then a 8, then a 9 and finally a 10.

Since we have reasons to play towards low sum numbers and knowing that the best scenario will be to get a 4 sum (2+2) and so on (2+3 and 3+2 = 5) or (2+4 and 4+2 =6) or (3+4, 4+3, 5+2, 2+5 =7) and finally (4+4 = 8), a 5/5+ streak will deny many possible "profitable" spots as sooner or later 10 or 20 or 30 (or more) back to back sum values must happen.

Approaching the issue in another way, it's like a final sum made after those simple rules is going to provide an average final shoe's result.
But anyway getting some peaks, some steady values and some decreasing values.

To help defining when some spots are worthwhile to be bet, we can confide about the relative unlikelihood that 5/5+ streaks will be hugely produced along any shoe dealt.
I've provided a couple of different source samples so you might get a better idea of what I'm talking about.

But what's important to be emphasized is that streaks of precise lenght that didn't appeared so far must not be considered to show up as what we're really interested about is the clustering effect.

After all we're not fighting to get a potential outcome whatever is entitled to show up unless it came at least one time.
For sure "isolated" specific streaks will come out but not for long.

Clustered streak classes to look at

a) First are doubles coming out clustered at least one time.

b) Then doubles coupled with triples.

c) Then doubles coupled with 4s whenever triples didn't seem to show up.

d) Then triples with 4s.

At very rare occasions even mere 4s (so not getting any help from inferior streaks classes, so battling alone vs 5/5+ streaks)

A multilayered betting scheme will take care of those a/b/c/d possible events having the main task to get at least ONE clustered event.
No need to set up a fictional betting strategy waiting for some losses (albeit being wonderful whether we have the attitude to be extremely patient) : what happens still remains more likely to come out again at a given events' category.

Then the same "propensity" will act even at the singles/streaks battle, yet getting more intricate tools to be grasped.

I'm deadly sure you're on the right site to ascertain whether this wonderful game would be beatable. :thumbsup:

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on February 11, 2024, 04:10:59 PM
Thx Asym.
I read all your posts re: grouping or clustering effects.

Can you respond a little more on your ABCD lines above. Sometimes I find it helpful to observe the clustering and run lengths as it helps me identify the "weak link" which in turn tells me the current strong side. The key in my opinion is early detection as just one or two spots earlier winning spots can often mean the difference in our "Win-In-A-Row" length (At least for me).


Continued Success,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 11, 2024, 10:19:42 PM
Hi KFB!!

Sometimes I find it helpful to observe the clustering and run lengths as it helps me identify the "weak link" which in turn tells me the current strong side. The key in my opinion is early detection as just one or two spots earlier winning spots can often mean the difference in our "Win-In-A-Row" length (At least for me).


IMO, you couldn't condense the issue in a better way!!  :thumbsup:

Think that basically casinos will lose only when long streaks of something univocally shaped will happen, all other "low deviations" patterns will favor them in a way or another (HE, players' greediness, wrong adaption of the actual results, etc).
Moreover players being favored by such (rare) long univocal patterns will lose very soon what they've earned and we well know that the "quitting when you're ahead" move is a complete worthless bighorn.stuff.

Therefore an acute player should be prepared to know that what constitutes an "easy way" to win (rarely happening) actually is just the fuel to mantain live this game.
In other words, an acute player should selectively bet towards low levels of deviations, being way more likely than the counterparts.

Now, it's sure as hell that low degree of deviations (whatever considered) will come out clustered or not by different levels of probability (0= no clusters, 1= one clustered event, 2=two clustered events, etc).

Then even each clusters streak already classified by a 0,1,2, etc class will come out isolated or clustered and so on.

Wholly considered, it's virtually impossible not to get at least a back-to-back same class category to show up, even considering the 0 (isolated) value.
In fact 0-0 (or 0-0-0, etc) is a cluster.

More later

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 12, 2024, 04:52:43 AM
If you want to play baccarat successfully you must imprint in your mind that you'll get an edge ONLY  by getting more wins than losses: trying to erase or invert the HE by adopting progressions is a sure recipe for disillusionments and eventual disaster.

Technically such task can only be achieved by exploiting the "clustering effect" (CE) factor, always working at any shoe dealt but at different levels.
Most of the times the CE provides easy detectable situations, sometimes it'll be too restricted to be exploited, finally some very rare shoes won't make any room to get EV+ spots.

So baccarat is a kind of coin flip succession game only under the eyes of losers (2+2=6-2 forum 'experts of our a$$', for example).

Moreover, baccarat successions are quite dependent of the actual shuffling source and obviously you can get an idea about that only if you know (and get at your disposal) the several shuffling machines casinos will employ to deal bac shoes.

At the end you'd want to play baccarat only if you are able to manage a kind of 4.5 or 5 sigma probability NEGATIVE deviation that sooner or later may come out. (To simplify the issue it's like to face, without getting sensible damage, a 20 or 25 negative B/P streak).

Notice that by exploiting the CE, in the long term a 4.5 or 5 sigma will be more likely to show up at the positive end than at the negative one.
Yet those are very very unlikely situations, after all we're interested about the more likely ones.

The clustering effect moves around more likely steps

In a way or another and considering the common horizontal distribution of the outcomes (rightly displayed at 95% of the casinos' screens), every pattern fills the slots by a long term asymmetrical fashion.
If we'd consider streaks (so not giving a damn about the first row), empty column slots at 2nd, 3rd and superior rows will limit "geometrical" spaces more and more forming long empty shaped sequences where the "empty value" 1 will be more likely followed by superior empty spaces in relative relationship of the row filled.

Providing to set up a decent random walk, back to back 1-1 empty third row successions will be followed by superior empty row classes by a close to 59%/41% probability, meaning that our bets will get an astounding 18% edge (before vig) to win.

Anyway it's important to understand that such edge won't be linearly distributed as 1-1-1 sequences now are 'even money' to get wins than losses and the reason is because many "univocal" events happened somewhat deny a math propensity to show up (being 'consumed'by the actual card distribution).

As long as we're going more deeply at the rows evaluation, empty slots limited by possible or actual "streaky" patterns will form longer empty sequences than 1, but it's up to us to choose the minimum profitable risk to get a win.
And of course, deeper we're trying to get such empty rectangles NOT to be limited by a 1 gap, greater will be our probability of success.
At the cost of missing many profitable opportunities mostly belonging to a undectectable random world we can't do anything about that.

Say that what our algos are interested about (after being instructed to take two different mechanical random walk shapes) is the empty row ranges considered at various levels:

1) When considering the third row, singles and doubles "empty" rows matter only when the 1-1 back-to-back empty row range trigger happens. And it must be played just one time. 

2) When considering the fourth row, we have to get rid of the first row events, meaning we 're taking care of the second and third row vs the fourth (or superior) rows. That is singles are considered as neutral. Here the same 1-1 trigger range concept applies but now we're adding an isolated  superior than 1 situation vs superior clustered events.     

3) When considering the fifth row, we're getting rid of both singles and doubles, so focusing about triples and 4s vs 5/5 streaks empty ranges.

4) Sometimes and for the slight more propensity doubles are showing up, even doubles coupled with 4s present profitable clustered situations, mostly as triples haven't come out so far.

Without any doubt and as already sayed, shuffling machines will make way easier the task to get predictable empty row ranges than expected.

That's the reason why HS rooms keep offering "preordered" shuffled shoes we do not know a fkng about.

See you in a couple of days.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 13, 2024, 10:04:49 PM
Just tracked this live manually shuffled shoe:

B
PPP
BB
PPP
B
P
BBBB
PPPP
BB
PPP
B
PP
BBB
P
BBB
PPP
BBBB
P
BB
PPPP
BB
P
BB
PPP
BB
P

A very good shoe where our algo 1 have found a couple of 5/5+ streaks even though there were none at the Big Road.
Anyway the remaining shoe's texture came out so good for every other pattern the algo would elicit a bet.
And, curiosly, at this shoe there were many.

See you later

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 14, 2024, 03:55:27 AM
Our algos constantly work by assessing numbers and not situations: obviously numbers can only derive from situations, that is from B/P sequences entitled to be more likely to happen.

The basic procedure is extracted by simple arythmetic operations made on various patterns where sums may stay put, going back (decreasing their value) or going forward (increasing their value).

Thanks too the Alrelax and KFB fine posts, we've instructed our algos to consider each shoe as a world apart, thus considering it by an "intricate" conditional probability factor moving our random walks into 'predictable' ways capable to erase and invert the HE.

Such task could only be accomplished by evaluating the most likely deviations happening at thousands and thousands of shoes dealt with a special regard dedicated to the strong positive and negative situations' values.

Strong positive and negative situations

To properly work, algos must rely upon verified long term data and the best tool coming in our mind is the ability to get the best of positive events and at the same time the ability to get the possible lower damage at negative events and this can only be achieved by knowing that strong positive events > strong negative events.
Meaning that progressions can't alter normal flows for long, unless the W/L ratio will be shifted in our favor.

But the words "positive" and "negative" must be related to specific situations: technically the issue is resolved by an evaluation of positive streaks lenght and average distribution.

For example, if we'd consider as "enemy" the 5/5+ streaks, we know that shoes producing such streaks are 2:32 against to happen, yet some random walks will make such probability lower than that, so making more room to inferior streak classes to show up.

Same about inferior streaks where the best "streaks trigger" to look for are doubles.

Problem is that many (nearly half of the times) patterns will deny the streak apparition right at the start (singles), so we have to devise random walks capable to concentrate their strenght upon streaks of specific lenght in order to come out clustered.

Once we've discarded the singles apparition, problem focuses about doubles and so on about superior streaks.

Let's take the shoe I've presented above by the simplest Big Road sequence.

No one 5/5+ streaks happened, yet betting towards singles (first step to deny such 5/5+ streak apparition) would have been a lousy strategy as singles came out by this succession (1=isolated singles and 2 or superior numbers=clustered singles):

1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1.

On the other end clustered streaks (again 1=isolated streak and 2 or superior numbers= clustered streaks) of any lenght had come out as:

3, 4, 2, 3, 3, (3)

Notice that by merging two streak classes inferior than 5 (that didn't happen in this shoe) we'll get such scenarios (1=isolated streak, any superior number = clustered streaks):

2/3 streaks classes: 3, 6, 1, 4

3/4 streaks classes: 11

2/4 streaks classes: 10

Merging such streaks classes will get a general 0.75% probability to happen.
Notice that a supposedly "lower streaks are more likely to happen" general course (that is the 2/3 class) will get us the lesser profitability, whereas 3/4 and 2/4 classes will get us all wins.

Nonetheless, our algo 1 had found out a wonderful 23 winning single/double streak as opposed as to a maximum BR 3 streak and:

2/3 streak classes: 10

3/4 streak classes: 1

2/4 streak classes: 9

Moreover the BR provided 18 streaks and 7 singles and our algo has found out 14 streaks and 20 singles.

Anyway our algos are more focused not to lose than to win multiple hands in a row, so assigning a different value to any spot considered by a 1-2-3 scale where 1 is the less desirable value and 3 the maximum profitable value (0 is a very frequent value not suggesting any bet).

We'll see the actual spots of the shoe provided above where our main algo suggested a 1 (light), 2 (moderate) or 3 (heavy) supposed profitability.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 14, 2024, 05:41:42 AM
All possible patterns derive from a math expectation where card rank positions will make a role in determining the most likely final outcome.

Different ranks help or not a side:

1/3 rank card positions are 9/13 favored to get the B side to win;

2/4 rank card positions are 8/4 favored to get the P side to win;

5 rank card position is 1/1 (even money) to get any side to win;

6 rank card position is 1/1 (even money) to get any side to win.

You must consider such values in order to build valuable algorithms by approximating the key cards falling here or there by more likely ranges.

So itlr you can't expect to win Player bets whether the first or third card isn't a 6,7,8 or 9 (1.45:1 against) but you are 2:1 favorite if while betting the same Player side the second or fourth card is an A,2,3,4 or 10.

If the hand needs one or two third cards (5 or 6) the hand will go even money.

Some random walks are more capable to grasp the "more likely card distribution" considered by certain patterns, especially by exploiting the natural 'clustering effect'.

And that's a huge edge we could rely upon.

"Incidents", that is hands not following a math propensity, are surely happening but they should be considered just as a kind of systematic error not influencing our long term results.

See you next week

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 18, 2024, 10:05:58 PM
We know that baccarat BP sequences can't be solved mathematically (actually it's possible but by getting insignificant long term values) so we're forced to study other ways and we've found particularly valuable to consider BP successions by "ranges".

To be really worthwhile a "range" or "ranges" must move around finite and slight dependent factors affected by a constant asymmetrical strenght (due to a unequal card distribution).

So in some way baccarat BP sequences are reproducing "biased" successions where the B slight math advantage won't make any substantial effect in order to gain a possible edge over the house.

Anyway and since we're talking about ranges, we should know that the edge will be influenced by huge variance, so we must take many countermeasures to avoid it (or to try to get the best of it when positive), a thing apparently easy to do in theory but very difficult to put in practice.

More later

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 19, 2024, 04:32:00 AM
A "range" is formed by one or more patterns delimited by "boundaries" making such pattern(s) to stop at some point of any shoe dealt.

The beauty of baccarat is that sometimes (say not so rarely) those boundaries do not happen at all, so leaving plenty of room to extract value upon those clustered pattern(s) situations not crossing  any losing spot.

It's altogether obvious that boundaries formation is in direct relationship of the general probability of success, meaning that it's impossible NOT to get boundaries (streaks) at singles successions (whatever considered), very very very very very difficult NOT to show up at least one time at double patterns (battling vs 3/3+ streaks boundaries), and so on with triples vs superior streaks or 4s vs 4+ streaks.

Since our algorithms are instructed to put a kind of "limit" to the realm of randomness, 5/5+ streaks are the maximum value where they stop to consider ranges. The same way insurance companies put limits to possible compensations after customers had payed the insurance fee.

In some way acute baccarat players like to get a kind of "insurance policy" that some very rare events won't come out short-gapped or, more importantly, by numbers not giving room to way more likely events considered by ranges.
In addition and since the main aim will be always oriented to get inferior patterns classes to be clustered at some point, back-to-back boundaries (in our example 5/5+ streaks) won't get us any damage as no inferior pattern can come out when two or more adjacent 5/5+ streaks happen.

Knowing that the 5/5+ streaks appearance is well limited per any shoe dealt (especially and foremost by utilizing specific random walks), a multilayered progressive betting scheme joined with a super selected betting will crush every casino in the world.

So instead of thinking about the missed profitable opportunities when things seem to come out confused, we should focus about how many losing spots you'll get rid of by waiting for superior ranges to show up clustered and by passing more undetectable inferior ranges.
After all whenever we won't bet a fkng dime, casinos will someway hate us and when casinos hate us is because we're taking the right side of the operations.
So when in doubt do not bet a fkng cent: more hands we want to guess, greater will be the HE.

Technically is just challenging that bac productions won't make 2/3 streaks or 3/4 streaks or 2/4 streaks NOT coming clustered "for long" at least one time.

Since 5/5+ boundaries are well defined in their sd values (at least by adopting some random walks), each losing step will be more likely followed by a kind of clustering inferior streaks propensity capable to erase and invert the HE.
By a 100% accuracy.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on February 19, 2024, 04:53:31 PM
"A "range" is formed by one or more patterns delimited by "boundaries" making such pattern(s) to stop at some point of any shoe dealt."

SECTIONS???

"The beauty of baccarat is that sometimes (say not so rarely) those boundaries do not happen at all, so leaving plenty of room to extract value upon those clustered pattern(s) situations not crossing  any losing spot."

BUT-THEY DO WITHIN NEW SECTIONS.  A PERSON JUST HAS TO BE ABLE TO DEFINE SECTIONS, WHICH WAS WHAT I WROTE AND DEFINED——WHAT SECTIONS ARE, HAPPENS AND ACTUALLY HAVE TO OCCUR IN EACH AND EVERY SINGLE SHOE PLAYED.

"Knowing that the 5/5+ streaks appearance is well limited per any shoe dealt (especially and foremost by utilizing specific random walks), a multilayered progressive betting scheme joined with a super selected betting will crush every casino in the world."

ANYTHING AND EVERYTHING HAPPENS AS WELL AS, NOTHING EXPECTED OR DESIRED OR ENVISIONED MIGHT AS WELL HAPPEN.

NOTE:  But the bottom line in actual wagering at a table of bac, is the ability to play with total consciousness, focus and enough buy-in to have a decent drawdown.  As well, if you depleted your buy-in, risk capital, you must leave and chalk it off.  Why?  Because then your emotions and frustrations will 100% set in.  The previous said is not fallacy or my opinion, it is multiple decades of experiences and facts.

ADDITIONAL NOTE:  Online testing is completely different than real table game wagering.  Online testing is either one of two results.  One, you eventually come out winning.  Two, the program is enticing you to signup and deposit real funds, etc. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 20, 2024, 09:42:38 PM
Hi Al!
Thanks for your fine comments.

Sections

Yes, we could use this word.
Specifically by "range" I mean the various distribution of empty slots at the different rows (horizontal registration).

BUT-THEY DO WITHIN NEW SECTIONS.  A PERSON JUST HAS TO BE ABLE TO DEFINE SECTIONS, WHICH WAS WHAT I WROTE AND DEFINED——WHAT SECTIONS ARE, HAPPENS AND ACTUALLY HAVE TO OCCUR IN EACH AND EVERY SINGLE SHOE PLAYED.

I agree, anyway algos can only move by objective findings (single gaps, streaks lenght, consecutive or isolated streaks, etc)

ANYTHING AND EVERYTHING HAPPENS AS WELL AS, NOTHING EXPECTED OR DESIRED OR ENVISIONED MIGHT AS WELL HAPPEN.

Of course, but always by specific levels of probability. And our efforts are always directed to spot "more likely" ranges with a special regard of NOT falling into those very rare negative (but possible) distributions.

NOTE:  But the bottom line in actual wagering at a table of bac, is the ability to play with total consciousness, focus and enough buy-in to have a decent drawdown.  As well, if you depleted your buy-in, risk capital, you must leave and chalk it off.  Why?  Because then your emotions and frustrations will 100% set in.  The previous said is not fallacy or my opinion, it is multiple decades of experiences and facts.

100% true.
That's why we leave the bet selection to algos that are totally insensitive to emotions and frustrations.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 21, 2024, 04:02:04 AM
Let's trace some technical elements again by considering streaks.

Streaks are patterns made by a multistep probability floating around the "back-to-back" same side (widely intended) apparition.

Nothing wrong by limiting the bac outcomes into streaks (so ignoring singles).
Then all possible streaks will be classified within the 2-5 range, so considering irrelevant all streaks superior than 5.

That's the range our algos are interested upon.

Now algos want to be instructed about the "maximum positive or negative value" every streak class (2, 3, 4 or 5) will appear per every shoe dealt.
Of course not giving a damn about previous shoes as each shoe is a world apart.
Say we'd assign a correspondent number to every streak belonging to the 2,3,4 or 5(5+) class.

If we'd sum up the two last streak numbers we'll get those three situations:

1) The value remains still (for example a 2-3-2 streak succession (sum=5) or a 2-2 (sum=4) or 3-3 (sum=6), etc. 

2) The value will increase (any streak followed by a superior streak)

3) The value will decrease (any streak followed by an inferior streak).

Obviously not every situation will make the next sum belonging to every different category.
For example a 2 streak apparition must only produce an increasing or still sum.
3s and 4s will make any scenario possible and 5(5+) cannot increase their value (either they stay put or decreasing the sum), a banal specular situation happening at 2s.

Therefore we might think about how are the best and worst possible events making such sums to be decreased (2s if no 2 happened) or 5(5+)s (if no 5-5+ streak happened).
In addition, we want to get at our favor all the possible situations making a still sum (so a back-to-back same streak apparition).

The luxury tool we rely upon is that 5/5+ streaks are well determined in their apparition (that is by their density average apparition along any shoe dealt), 3s and 4s streaks are very common to show up and itlr doubles are the most likely streak shape any BP distribution will provide.

In a word, streaks distribution (providing a proper random walks action) will make more probable to get decreasing or still sums (5/5+ streaks aside) of two adjacent events than increasing values.

That's just a general propensity that must be evaluated by how the actual shoe is doing.
In fact most of the times sums are in direct relationship of the previous specific streak classes appearance, in the sense that we do not want to chase doubles when no double had come out so far and at the same time we must always be prepared to face the inevitable 5/5+ streaks erasing any decreasing or still sum (yet at an interesting portion of the shoes they won't come out a single time!).

Putting things into numbers

Since we have learnt here that it's way better to chase the model NOT to provide expected numbers (or situations) at two consecutive betting steps, we should assess how many decreasing/still/increasing sums will happen along any shoe dealt.
Obviously by betting (or fictionally betting) two situations out of three (when applicable), that is wagering towards still or decreasing sums, we'll get a better idea about how bac things work itlr.

Let's take the above presented shoe registered in real time at a online site.

As already sayed, we're just considering streaks as numbers.
First by the common Big Road sequence, then by our main algo and finally by our backup algo.

1) BR sequence

3,2,3,4,4,2,3,2,3,3,3,4,2,4,2,2,3,2.

Sums are 5, 5, 7, 8, 6, 5, 5, 5, 6, 6, 7, 6, 6, 6, 4, 5, 5.

2) Our main algorithm:

3, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 5, 5, 2.

Sums are: 5, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 7, 10, 7.

3) Backup algorithm:

2, 3, 2, 3, 4, 5, 5+, 4, 4, 2, 3, 3.

Sums are 5, 5, 5, 7, 9, 10, 9, 8, 6, 5, 6.

This shoe (bad manually shuffled) was pretty good as no "boundaries" (5/5+ streaks) happened at BR  sequence; moreover at our main algo registration the couple of 5/5+ streaks were fortunately coming around clustered giving plenty of room to inferior streak classes to show up (here by a consistent clustered doubles appearance).
Backup algo (despite of crossing just one 5/5+ streak, went more badly as most sums did increase their value than lowering it). 

But it's not a coincidence that the main algo will get way better results than the backup one.
Anyway and putting the main and backup algos into the decreasing (D), still (S) or increasing (I) sums (stopping when a 5/5+ streak happened and waiting for an inferior streak class to show up) we got:

main algo: D, S, S, S, S, S, S, S, S, I (stop)

 
backup algo: S, S, S, I, I, (stop), D, D, D, D.

Just for curiosity let's see how the BR succession performed:

S, I, I, D, D, S, S, I, S, I, D, S, S, D, I, S.

Notice how different went the three different successions but focus about how's easy to spot what are the most likely occurences to look for.

Now we are quite sure best ATM in the world are casinos offering baccarat tables (at least as long as the global warming effect won't cancel the human species from this planet, and unfortunately this thing will happen very very soon)

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 26, 2024, 04:53:14 AM
Summarizing the streaks topic (singles ignored) from a back-to-back point of view:

From one part doubles can only produce S (back-to-back doubles) or I values (from I-1 = triples or I-2 = 4s streaks or I-3= 5/5+ streaks), and on the other end 5/5+ streaks reproduce the same specular situation ranging from S (back-to-back 5/5+ streaks) to D-1 (4s streaks) or D-2 (triples) or D-3 (doubles).

Every other streak class (that is triples and 4s) can only be followed either by a S event (same streak) or by a two-step D or I scenario.

But since the I value belonging to any streak class is somewhat more restricted than the more likely D counterpart (considering as neutral any S clustered apparition), any attack made on such streak "clusters" will get us an edge.

It's like that any streak not belonging to the 5/5+ class, will more likely move around a S or one-step D situation, especially if we'd want to adopt a multilayered betting scheme capable to start (or stop) the action whenever at previous streak appearance the increasing values (I) seemed to deviate for too long the expected values.

In a couple of days I'll present you the most extremely bad situations we had to cross through.
Many times accepting serenely a temporary inevitable loss.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on February 27, 2024, 01:36:38 AM
Hi Asym

"...especially if [bWe want to adopt a multilayered betting scheme[/b] capable to start (or stop) the action whenever at previous streak appearance the increasing values (I) seemed to deviate for too long the expected values.
.."


Q: What is your preferred multi-layered betting scheme (e.g., 1-1, 1-2, 124, 137, other...etc) ?


Thx in advance,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on February 28, 2024, 03:58:22 AM
Hi KFB!!

Say we have at our disposal three different players betting (or fictionally betting) for us.

Step1 player (SP1), Step2 player (SP2) and Step3 player (SP3).

SP1 is the loosest of the three, he tries to get streak classes clustered around any corner by adopting a same two betting scheme (1-1.2 or 1-1.5 or even 1-2).
He doesn't care about losing more than the 3:1 cutoff (losing) ratio, he keep betting when a new low streak class shows up.

SP2 is the medium player starting the action (fictionally or for real) whenever the sd results reach the 2 negative value.
His bets are made by a 3-3.6 or 3-4.5 or even 3-6 'schedule' and again he keep wagering the same sums without any consideration about the current bankroll status. 

SP3 is the tightest player, considering to bet only whenever the sd approaches or surpasses the 3 value.
His bets are 9-10.8 or 9-13.5 or even 9-18.

Since it's virtually impossible not to get inferior streak classes to be clustered once or not clustered for "long" (obviously by adopting proper random walks), this player tend to act very rarely and anyway by a wonderful positive expectancy.
So there's no need to further escalate the multistep players action.

It's true that along the way the HE will consistently reduce the profits by the vig impact, but the probability of success slowly go up by a density well erasing and inverting it.

Moreover, we should understand that the second term of any given two-step wager is set up just as a mere "back-up" plan, that is a kind of challenge that the enemy (5/5+ streaks) won't come out right after two attempts made looking for two specific streak classes.
In a sense, that means that the most focus we should put on is about the first term of any betting schedule, giving the second term the possibility to recoup the first failed attempt (vig considered, that's why we have to raise the previous bet whether lost).

Statistical tools making this plan to work

1) 5/5+ streaks are well defined in their range of apparition along any shoe dealt.
Our two random walks provide ranges between zero to 7 apparitions where zero is about 100 times more likely than 7.
Even 6 apparitions are very very unlikely to happen.

2) An unlikely high number of 5/5+ streaks will deny the formation of inferior streak classes so not making any issue about the clustering effect we're looking for.
This factor gets more amplitude if we'd wait for two inferior and different streak classes to show up before thinking to play them by a clustered fashion.   

3) It's a corollary of the above point: An unlikely high number of 5/5+ streaks will more likely show up clustered (back to back, that is no inferior streaks capable to form a 'trigger' came out). In this instance we won't dream to bet a dime, fictionally or for real.

4) Any 5/5+ streak appearance at the first portion of the shoe is a relative sign that more 5/5+ streaks are coming next: this a very complicated issue related to the average card distribution.
The same about a possible back-to-back 5/5+ cluster.
So do not play towards "balanced" or more likely scenarios when 'enemies' seemed to come out strong.   

5) Two similar but slight different random walks will get very diverse streak distributions, meaning that even whether casinos perfectly know what we're doing they couldn't arrange the cards to get more long streaks than due. 
Fortunately we've devised such random walks making the least possible number of "colliding events", that is hands where we can't know at which random walk streak classes we're looking for may come out or not.
Of course when in doubt we won't risk a cent. 

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on February 28, 2024, 05:04:49 AM
"Of course when in doubt we won't risk a cent".


You are being facetious, right?

Or is that your rock solid m.o.? 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 03, 2024, 09:48:41 PM
Quote from: alrelax on February 28, 2024, 05:04:49 AM"Of course when in doubt we won't risk a cent".


You are being facetious, right?

Or is that your rock solid m.o.? 


Almost always r.w. 1 takes the lead over r.w. 2 but it could happen that that shoe is more consistent with streaks limited by r.w. 2.
Now if at a given hand r.w.1 dictates to bet Banker but r.w. 2 dictates to bet Player, we simply don't bet.

Taken the issue from a general point of view, yes, we are always in doubt...it's the nature of the game :D

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 03, 2024, 09:52:50 PM
Later I'll try to discuss some points about progressive plans.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 04, 2024, 04:24:40 AM
First, if A<B (that is we're betting an A math disadvantaged proportion) we're supposed not to go anywhere yesterday, now and in the future.
Yet, at baccarat A/B successions are more dependent that many would think about, schematically we could split such successions into three different categories:

1) Slight/moderate fluctuations at either side;

2) Strong fluctations at A side (positive);

3) Strong fluctuations at B side (negative).

Obviously itlr 1 > 2 and 3 and of course 2 < 3.
The proportional damage of 3 will overwhelm the advantage of 2, but 1 category still includes the vast majority of situations, meaning that they are easily controllable by a progressive betting scheme.

In some way, both strong positive and negative situations (2 and 3) should be avoided by putting the most emphasis to the more likely "intermediate" world.

Obviously a more likely world cannot get rid of a basic statistical assumption that a given propensity must come out more clustered than isolated, thus setting up a kind of negative pattern "boundaries" (stop) along the way.
Such boundaries are naturally counterbalancing a more likely flow, but differently than this one, are way more finite in their apparition as at baccarat key cards cannot disappear from a shoe especially if we'd consider the model as an infinite (!) multistep battle between two sides.

To be worthwhile a progressive plan shouldn't be oriented to get a positive outcome around any corner, just focused to classify the possible negative boundaries permutations happening along any shoe dealt, always privileging the lower classes of apparition by a clustered fashion.

We know very well that very often possible "more likely" scenarios will come out intertwined by less likely boundaries patterns but this thing cannot last for long, so the boundaries problem shifts to the different levels of profitable patterns probability, ranging (for example) from singles to 4 streaks.
Or, it's the same concept, from single isolated sequences to two or three single runs.

Pretend to take the casino's part

Casinos do not give a fk about their math edge (besides side bets), they rely upon more likely pattern distributions belonging to the 1) class, considered "undetectable" by most.
After all, bac players like to hope for strong deviated scenarios constituting the lesser amount of total hands dealt.

Technically casinos must concede some room to such strong deviating opportunities, knowing very well that things will change sooner or later toward a more likely "mixed" distribution.

Well, it's the same thing we should aim for.

Some examples of our progressive plans

Say we want to evaluate the 5th row EMPTY RANGES happening per every shoe dealt.
Ignoring singles and doubles, 3s and 4s streaks will make some empty areas and since 5/5+ streaks are well defined in their average apparition, we'll expect some 3rd and 4th rows to be empty at least two times, obviously this is the same thing that wagering toward clustered 3s and 4s streaks.
The plan has a so high probability of success that we can also add to our wagering options even doubles.

The same about singles successions: 3rd or 4th columns not giving room to any row formation (always considering the clustering effect) are quite rare to happen, giving plenty of room to the more likely 1 or 2 step singles formation.

Obviously some random walks will make those scenarios way more likely to happen, anyway at the end what seems to limit (or not) outcomes' distribution gets an esponential probability to succeed.

It's like that either the actual distribution will form a more likely number of streaks or that such streaks will belong to low classes being clustered.

as. 
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 05, 2024, 10:05:24 PM
It's important to say that algorithms are particularly sensitive not only about the specific streaks formation but also about their relative position in the actual shoe dealt as they were instructed to suggest the best move after having implemented thousands and thousands of real shoes.

The clustering (or isolated or no showing up) effect is just one parameter (even though being the most important) they would look for.

See you later

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 06, 2024, 03:28:57 AM
Before thinking to adopt a progressive multilayered betting scheme we should understand some basic statistical tools applied to long term live shoes data.
Differently than black jack, we reached the conclusion that at baccarat we do not need millions of shoes data, few dozens of thousands are more than sufficent to realize the ranges of intervention of our plan.

Modal value at attack #1, singles vs streaks

By applying a 0.75% probability of success (that is looking for a win within a couple of attempts) and discarding a subtantial portion of initial (foremost) and ending hands, the most frequent number of bettable spots per shoe (considered as a win or a loss) is 8.

Since a two-step continuous wager is working and thinking by average values, we reckon to bet around 12 times per shoe (isolated singles and two singles in a row).

Worst situations are whenever we won't win a single two-step hand, that is when the shoe will present ALL single clusters superior than 2.
Knowing the modal value, on average the worst event we'll expect it'll be to get 16 losing bets in a row.
But since the shoe is finite and by applying a "clustering" factor, such scenario could be easily discarded, mostly as distributions wholly negating a more likely 1-2 single steps almost always cannot reach the 8 modal value (stopping well before).

In any instance, shoes NOT presenting at least one winning spot are showing up around 1% of the times. In the almost all cases the number of bettable spots (and disregarding the important clustering effect) is 5 or 6.

On the other end, shoes presenting ALL one-step and two-step single situations account for a nearly 10% of total shoes dealt.

Therefore after 100 shoes dealt and ignoring the vig for simplicity, at such most deviated situations on average we'll expect to win 4 units (1-1.5 progression) or 8 units (1-2 progression) ten times and to lose from 12.5 units (1-1.5 progression) to 18 units (1-2 progression) one time.

In a word and after 100 shoes dealt, most possible deviated outcomes at either side will get a 40 units profit (by adopting a 1-1.5 progression) to 80 units profit (1-2 progression) or a 12.5 units loss (1-1.5 progression) or 18 units loss (1-2 progression).

Then it remains to assess the most likely intermediate situations where one or more positive (most likely) or negative (less likely) event will affect the overall ratios.

Positive situations (that is isolated or two-step singles) will account a nearly 77% probability (expected value = 75%), the remaining 3-step sequences are equally distributed betweeen 3s or superior than 3s steps.

That's where our edge comes from.

Results are always shifted to our favor, it's just a matter of time that things will take a more likely profitable course of action.
It's a slow process capable to get rid either of the negative variance and of the permutations issue, both factors easily manageable by a simple clustering way of considering things.

Next week I'll give you the details about the average clustering streaks distribution.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on March 06, 2024, 05:38:46 AM
I don't know your personal hard core betting numbers, just what you write.

But I will tell you my worst shoes, where as I lost by the end of the shoe I would average, that I wagered around 25 times. 

The shoes that I won, I would average, that I wagered around 40 times. 

Bear in mind, I am not satisfied with a one, two or a few unit win by any means.  Likewise, my buy-in is only a small percentage of my bank roll funds and as I have written, is pure risk capital with not much of a stop loss.

What I have found, that suits me best, is attempting in the most aggressive way to get into my M.M.M. stage. And be able to implement my 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd strategy, thus allowing my wagering to be strictly governed by my wins and losses effecting only a portion of my win money.

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 10, 2024, 09:27:53 PM
But I will tell you my worst shoes, where as I lost by the end of the shoe I would average, that I wagered around 25 times.
The shoes that I won, I would average, that I wagered around 40 times.


Definitely this is an interesting thing to think about.
Obviously you should compare how many units you've lost at those 25 hands bet shoes and how many units you have won by wagering 40 times.

In some way we could reduce the 25 and 40 hands by, say a 5 factor, thus getting us 5 bet hands at losing shoes and 8 bet hands at winning ones.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 11, 2024, 04:16:02 AM
Attack #2: singles/doubles clusters vs 3/3+ streaks

This attack studies the average probability to get singles/doubles clusters, meaning we need to get one "fictional" winning hand (that is a single or a double) in order that a s/d pattern will be classified as an "isolated" outcome (1) or a "clustered" outcome (any number superior than 1).

Thus consecutive 3/3+ streaks won't be classified as they're not conceding room to any single/double clustering effect.

Our long term live shoes data had taught us that on average shoes NOT presenting any isolated single/double (s/d) cluster show up by a 27.77% probability, so more than 3/4 of the total shoes dealt will include at least one isolated s/d sequence.
It's a quite obvious situation as we'd start to bet after a fictional winning situation happened.

Things are going to re-adjust when we consider the overall number of 1s (isolated s/d patterns) to opposing triples, now itlr the s/d value vs the 3/3+ value tend to remain constant.

Let's summarize.

Since we're talking about s/d clusters, we shouldn't be interested about HOW LONG such s/d patterns will last, we'd just bet toward the least profitable s/d cluster happening and this is a 2 value (that is a single and/or double back to back pattern) after one single or double event had shown up.
In a word, just isolated s/d events represent our "enemy", so we should be interested about how many isolated patterns will come in a row per any shoe dealt.

Surprise!!

Proportional outcomes become one side shifted when we start to consider the average distribution of such isolated enemies by a consecutive distribution point of view.
A thing negated by mathematicians or "experts of our a$$" losers.

In fact whether proper random walks are in action, double consecutive isolated events are nearly 87% favorite NOT to produce superior isolated situations, meaning they are way more likely to stop there.
That means that at super selected situations we'll get a nearly 24% edge (before vig) over the house.

In numbers the average probability to benefit of such wonderful edge is one time per every 4.3 shoes dealt.

Even though such EV+ pots are quite diluted and anyway splitted within two consecutive bets (directed to deny the 3/3+ apparition), you should start to consider casinos as your free ATM machine.

That's just the third row (s/d vs superior streaks) of considering outcome ranges, next we'll see the fourth row.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on March 11, 2024, 01:35:48 PM
QuoteBut I will tell you my worst shoes, where as I lost by the end of the shoe I would average, that I wagered around 25 times.
The shoes that I won, I would average, that I wagered around 40 times.


Definitely this is an interesting thing to think about.
Obviously you should compare how many units you've lost at those 25 hands bet shoes and how many units you have won by wagering 40 times.

In some way we could reduce the 25 and 40 hands by, say a 5 factor, thus getting us 5 bet hands at losing shoes and 8 bet hands at winning ones.

as.

Asym,  I will wager a greater amount of hands when I am winning,  some are pos progression wagers and others might be just the win money at risk once again.  But I almost never do what so many claim, the 1-2 or 3 and stop win for a shoe. 

When I am losing, I am looking for the recouping trend and a winning recovery possibility.  If you do not play, you cannot win.  No matter what the visual/stay out until you see virtual wins, etc., if you don't have money up on the table in play, you cannot win.  True you cannot lose also, but your loss will not be recovered either. A wicked catch-22.

And I do have absolutely great, large wins after a period of losses in a shoe.  Let's just say at times, it was a 'warm up' period before the end of the 3rd quarter.

Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 13, 2024, 12:54:55 AM
Thanks Al!

Definitely and as long as the favourable conditions are met, the stop win or stop loss concept shouldn't be implemented in any EV+ attack as either we have verified to accumulate more Ws than Ls at those spots or we're just fooling ourselves.
At the risk of enduring some harsh and inevitable variance periods.

Fourth row

Deeper we're going down the rows, greater will be the probability to encounter wide empty ranges between the "boundaries" that now are 4s streaks or streaks superior than 4.
Even here consecutive 4th rows are not considered as what we should interested about is the clustering or isolated effect of lower pattern classes (singles, doubles and triples).

To restrict the field of intervention at 4th or superior rows, we may transform the s/d vs 3s plan into a double/triple vs 4s plan, so considering ininfluent the singles distribution.
Therefore we'll take care of the 2 and 3 streaks coming out clustered or isolated between two 4/4+ streaks. (Actually at the starting portion of the shoe we don't need any 4s streak to limit the 2/3 ranges).
As long as one or more double or one or more exact triple or a mix of the two shows up before crossing a 4/4+ streak, we'll get a number specifying a range and of course 1=isolated range, 2= a couple of doubles and or triples, etc.

For example a distribution as 3, 2, 2, 2, 3, 2, 5, 3, 2, 2, 2 becomes 6/4

or a distribution as 2, 3, 7, 4, 3, 2, 4, 7, 4, 3, 2 becomes 2/2/2

That's the old streak clustering effect I was talking about in my previous posts.

Since the above shoes were randomly taken but too much "good" oriented, here's a voluntarily picked up 'bad' shoe forming 'less detectable' isolated ranges:

2, 4, 3, 3, 4, 2, 6, 2, 5, 2, 2, 2, 3, 2, 2 that is a 1/2/1/1/6 sequence.

I've stated one million of times here that itlr the proportional impact of such numbers will get a 0 sum (before vig), thus there're no math tricks involved.

Progressively betting 1-2 (for example) and ignoring vig for simplicity will get:

1 = -3,
2 = -1,
3 = break even
4 = +1
5 = +2
6 = +3
and so on

Hence the first shoe produced a 6(+3) and 4 (+1) situation, second shoe 2 (-1), 2 (-1), 2 (-1) and the last one 1 (-3), 2 (-1), 1 (-3), 1 (-3), 6 (+3)

Overall a -6 units situation.

Now say that instead of playing an already selected streaks plan we want to bet ONE TIME towards any number different than 1:

1st shoe: +1, +1 (6/4)

2nd shoe: +1, +1, +1 (2/2/2)

3rd shoe: -3, +1, -3, -3, +1 (1/2/1/1/6)

Overall a -2 units loss, so reduced by one third.

Going deeply in the selected process of picking up bettable spots we might think to spot clusters of numbers different than 1 per any shoe (W, W, L) totaling a -1 unit loss or to exploit the opposite side of the medal, that is wagering NOT to get consecutive 1s by different levels (one time, two times, etc). In this three shoe unrandom example we got a -2 unit loss by betting after one single 1 spot and +1 unit win by betting after a couple of 1 consecutive spots.

It's out of question that under the more restricted ways of considering outcomes, the worst multilayered progressive plan ever invented would get the best of it by a 99,999% accuracy.
Way better if we'd find such rare spots where A>B, that is when we'll play the game having a EV+.

W/L permutations when W=L

A thoroughful study made on thousands and thousands of live shoes dealt had shown us that even if the W/L probability remains constant itlr (obviously according to the expected math probability that B and P will happen), outcome permutations are biased in their apparition by more detectable levels affected by the average card distribution.
A thing already demonstrated (but not having sensible practical reflexes) at mere coin flip tosses when "time" (that is when a given sequence should come out first as opposed as to another one) matters.

Math laws instruct us that there are no profitable spots to bet our money at a EV- game, statistical findings applied to baccarat teach us otherwise beyond any shadow of doubt.

I'll elaborate the issue next week, now I'm giving you some real shoes just considering the 2-3 streaks distribution.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 13, 2024, 01:25:14 AM
Numbers refer to double (2) or three (3) streaks, any streak superior than 3 is labeled as S.
Each row is a real dealt shoe when a fair portion of the final end was discarded from the registration.
Patterns are formed by our main mechanical random walk action.
Numbers in brackets at the end of each shoe are "undefined" streaks for a lack of more hands.

S,3,3,3,2,2,2,S,2,3,2,S,2,3,2,S,S,2

2,2,S,3,S,S,S,2,3,2,2,3,2,2,3,S,3

2,2,S,3,3,3,3,2,2,3,2,S,S,3,3,2,S

3,3,S,2,3,2,3,2,3,3,3,S,3,2,2,S,S,(3)

3,2,2,2,S,2,2,3,2,2,2,3,3,3,3,3,S,S,S,2

2,2,2,3,3,3,3,3,2,3,2,2,S,2,2,3,3,2,S

S,3,S,2,2,3,2,2,2,S,S,S,S,2,3,2

S,2,3,2,2,3,3,2,2,2,S,2,2,3,2,S,S

3,S,3,S,2,3,S,2,3,2,3,2,S,S,2,S,(3)

S,3,2,2,2,S,2,2,3,2,2,2,S,2,3,(3)

2,2,2,2,3,2,2,2,2,2,3,2,S,2,S,S

2,2,3,3,S,3,S,2,2,2,2,S,S,2,3,3,2,2,(3)

2,2,S,2,3,3,2,S,3,3,2,S,2,3,S,(3)

2,2,2,2,2,S,2,S,2,2,S,3,3,2

3,3,3,S,S,2,3,2,2,3,S,2,2,2

2,2,2,3,2,2,3,3,2,2,S,S,3,S,S

2.3.2.3.S.2.2.S.2.2.2.2.3.2.2.3.2

2.2.2.2.2.3.3.S.2.3.S.2.3.3.3.2.S

S,3,S,3,3,3,2,S,2,3,2,3,S,(3)

S,3,3,S,3,2,2,2,3,2,3,2,2,3,3,S,2

3,S,S,S,3,S,2,2,2,2,2,S

3,S,S,2,3,2,S,2,S,3,2,2,2,2,3,S,S,(3)

4,3,3,2,2,2,2,S,S,2,S,2,S,2,2,3,S

2,2,2,S,S,S,S,S,3,S,2,2,2,3,2,2,2,(3)

S,3,3,2,S,2,2,3,2,2,2,S,S,2,2

2,S,2,2,2,2,2,2,3,2,2,S,2,2,3,2,2,2,2

2,2,2,S,3,2,2,S,S,S,3,3,S,S,S

2,S,S,S,2,3,2,S,S,2,2,2,S,3,3,S,(3)

S,2,S,3,2,2,S,2,3,2,3,2,2,S,2,3,2

3,3,S,3,3,3,S,3,3,S,S,S,2

2,2,2,2,2,2,3,2,3,2,S,2,2,2,2,3,2,2,2,S

S,3,2,S,3,S,3,2,S,2,S,2,S,2,2

3,S,3,S,2,S,2,2,2,3,S,2,3,2,3,S

2,2,3,2,3,3,2,2,S,2,2,S (7310)

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on March 17, 2024, 02:08:37 AM
Hi Asym. Good topic(singles/doubles clustering). In your post #1001 above you said:

"...Attack #2: singles/doubles clusters vs 3/3+ streaks

This attack studies the average probability to get singles/doubles clusters, meaning we need to get one "fictional" winning hand (that is a single or a double) in order that a s/d pattern will be classified as an "isolated" outcome (1) or a "clustered" outcome (any number superior than 1)...."

So to clarify you are calling a cluster: A single-double cluster is like PBB or BPP in two consecutive columns on typical tote board??

"OR"

Do you mean a single P cluster is like bbxx P BBxx then very next column is precisely P , then fourth in a row column is BBBX or whatever as long as not a single P???

Thx in advance,



Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 17, 2024, 09:52:36 PM
Hi KFB!

It's the first option you described.

More simply for any 'cluster' (value 1) I mean any single-single or double-double or single-double or double-single situations. 

On the other side, isolated s/d events are just two: single-triple (3/3+) and double-triple (3/3+).

The remaining possibility is to cross a triple-triple pattern without any single or double intertwined, a situation we are not interested about.

A further pattern plan is to consider the singles as neutral, so now the s/d plan shifts into 2/3 streaks plan having 4/4+ streaks as "enemies" (boundaries).

Again we can only have four 'cluster' possibilities: 2/2, 2/3, 3/2 and 3/3.
And just two isolated sequences: 2/4-4+ and 3/4-4+

Even here back to back 4/4+ streaks do not account.

The final pattern "analysis" made on a clustering/isolated basis is extracted by comparing triples (exact triples) and 4s (exact 4 streaks) vs 4+ streaks (that is streaks long 5 hands or more).
Now either singles and doubles are considered as irrelevant.
Same "rules": 3/3, 3/4, 4/3 and 4/4 are clusters and 3/4+ and 4/4+ are isolated patterns.

We can safely stop our streak analysis by setting up a cutoff limit when any streak longer than 4 happens, that is this is the maximum boundary where inferior pattern ranges are more likely to act.

Now we can examine the most deviated situations any shoe might form after trillions and trillions of trials.

1) A shoe entirely formed by 5/5+ streaks: no bet

2) A shoe entirely formed by singles: the s/d plan works

3) A shoe mostly formed by 5/5+ streaks: a relative big obstacle to the above plans.

Obviously it's a lot more likely to get a #3 possibility than a virtual all 5/5+ streaks shoe (#1) or a virtual all singles shoe (#2), but you can test your shoes (even by common random walks) and you'll see that the average 5/5+ streaks distribution is well defined by more probable numbers that very often account for a 0 value than for numbers superior than the expected probability to happen.

More later

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on March 18, 2024, 02:34:01 AM
Thank you AsymBacGuy for not only your prompt response but also for such detail. Posts like this are beneficial.

Re: 2iar. A couple weeks ago I played a rare shoe that produced 14 consecutive P 2iars (e.g., yPPyyPPyyy,..etc). Meaning 14 consecutive PP turned to B. There were a couple of single "P" columns within this fourteen 2iar streaks but no PP went PPP.

After the 14-streak ended PP then went PPP and PPPT as its longest streak. But never produced a PPPP.
B was mostly typical in each column following the PP producing a mix of 1-4 Bs immediately following every PP. Several other strong events were showing too but they didn't have the 100% strike rate for going against the PP. Shoe had 5 Ties.

I did very well as I caught 12 of the 14 PP turns to B. I pressed aggressively through the 7th-8th win (Which was approximately the 8-9th "PP" turn). I was at (Tmax and Tmax+) on the 6th,7th,8th W. I then regressed back to my (base unit +15$) and reduced by -$5 on each succeeding W until the end.

Certainly, one of my better shoes for the month/ I don't recall ever seeing this many (14) consec PP turning to B.


Thx again,
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 18, 2024, 03:36:46 AM
Now with this simple classification we can consider EVERY POSSIBLE PATTERN HAPPENING per any shoe dealt, going from  an all 5/5+ streak shoe (#1 scenario) to an all single hands shoe (#2 scenario).

Considering the worst (or best) case scenarios is the way to instruct our algos to do their job even at the most possible deviated situations.

Of course in our humanly miserable terms, we won't expect to cross such deviations as the almost totality of shoes dealt will present way lower levels of deviations and under our way of thought the only objective obstacle to be overcome is the 5/5+ streaks "density" happening per shoe: better sayed, the room those unlikely streaks will concede to more likely inferior patterns.

Such 5/5+ streaks density varies in direct relationship of the actual outcomes' source and we already know that whenever a shuffling machine is utilized, a significant LOWER amount of those streaks will show up (at least by using our random walks).

Anyway and no matter the source, it's unlikely to get many 5/5+ streaks per shoe (otherwise and knowing the bac players propensity to bet towards streaks than towards any other pattern, HS rooms would not exist), say they move within a range going from 0 (no such streaks) to very low numbers.

In addition, we have shifted to our favor the clustering 5/5+ streaks effect as they do not give room to inferior (possible bettable) patterns being clustered at least one time as what didn't happen cannot come out clustered (and neither as isolated).

Actually the permutation factor makes a decisive role about our long term results as it tends to confuse the "density" issue with the distribution issue. 

Following data show how many 5/5+ streaks happen per shoe by adopting our main random walk
(some final patterns are undefinied in their lenght). This small sample tends to reproduce what could happen after thousands and thousands of shoes dealt.
Since our random walks start and stop their action after some hands are registered or discarded at the starting/final portions of each shoe, such numbers reflect lesser numbers than by registering every outcome at a 8-deck shoe: 

1
0
1
0
1
1
1
1
2
0
3
4
1
0
1
1
3
0
3
1
1
3
2
1
2
0
1
1
0
2
3
1
0
1
4
1
1
2
0
2
2
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
3
1
1
1
1
2
2
1
2
2
2
1
1
1
3
2
2
3
3
1
3
0
1
3
1
3
2
1
1
1
4
1
2
2
1
3
3
2
4
1
2
1
3
0
1
0
1
0
2
3
2
0
1
1
2
3
1
2
2
2
1
2
1
1
1
0
1
2
2
1
1
2
1
2
2
1
1
2
1
0
3
1
2
0
2
1
3
1
1
1
3
1
0
3
0
2
0
2
2
0
1
0
0
2
2
3
0
0
2
2
1
4
3
3
3
0
2
1
1
2
2
1
2
1
1
2
2
2
2
1
2
1
1
1
2
1
3
0
1
2
2
1
0
3
1
2
2
2
1
2
3
3
4
3
3
2
1
2
2
0
1
3
1
2
1
2
1
1
2
0
1
1
2
1
0
1

Totals

0 = 33

1 = 79

2 = 61

3/4 = 38

So out of 211 shoes dealt, the most probable situation belonging to the 5/5+ streaks is to expect just one such streak (37.44%), next comes the situation to face two 5/5+ streaks (28.9%).
Then there are the most deviated situations (0 and 3/4 streaks) globally accounting for 33.64%.

If we'd get rid of the 0 streaks scenario (15.33%), one and two streaks vs 3/4 streaks account for a 140/38 probability, that is a 3,68:1 ratio instead of an expected 3:1 ratio.

Numbers we should be interested about.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 18, 2024, 03:50:21 AM
Hi KFB!!

Thanks for posting your experience and for your compliments.

Yep, single Ps and/or double PPs can last for quite long time, probably this is the best basic "clustering" effect to look for. Providing to be patient and being capable to discard the inevitable "isolated" P s/d sequences coming out at many shoes, a virtue not so commonly represented  among bac players  ^-^

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 19, 2024, 10:09:17 PM
The number of 5/5+ streaks list provided above wasn't presented 'randomly': those numbers come from the same shoe shuffled by a machine and by an exact back-to-back order.

There are infinite ways to dissect such numbers presentation, one of the simplest (from a practical way of thought) is the probability to get consecutive shoes NOT getting 0, 1 or 2 'long' streaks:
at this very small sample we got a five and a four consecutive 3/4 streaks number per shoe.
The average probability (at least for this sample and taking care of a precise random walk action) any shoe provides 3 or more long streaks is around 18.3%.

So it's like losing 5 or 4 preflop all-ins in a row having AA vs any inferior pocket pair at NL hold'em.

What I mean is that at baccarat a supposedly propensity must always be taken very cautiously, even if considered by entire shoes.
It's obvious that consecutive "above average long streaks number" shoes do not deny a possible advantage but surely will make relative harsh times to deal with.
Moreover we have strong reasons to think that machines do not produce perfect random outcomes working for a same already distributed shoe, especially whether a sophisticated random walk will be able to pick up some "bias".

More later

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 20, 2024, 05:00:51 AM
Baccarat can't be beaten mathematically but by exploiting results by a frequentist statistical approach.
And one of the possible tool to utilize is to set up a kind of "boundary" plan getting room to more likely patterns of different levels.
The 5/5+ streaks distribution is just an example (see later).

Thus we can't rely upon certainty but upon probabilities and such probabilities become so overwhelming  vs randomness (or supposedly randomness) to assure us an edge.
Providing to wait for given situations to show up as we have verified that after a given event the subsequent event or class of events won't be proportionally shaped differently to what general probability laws dictate.

More hands we want to 'guess' greater will be the probability to fall directly into the random unbeatable world as the strong negative deviations will cause us a way greater damage than the symmetrical marked positive situations for the general EV- impact.

Streaks lenght and distribution

We've seen that per every shoe dealt long streaks (in our example 5/5+ streaks) are not coming out around any corner, but surely they will sooner or later show up by deviated values at either side (ranging from 0 to 4 or more).
Naturally some rare shoes make room to such long streaks without (plenty of singles and no inferior streaks) or intertwined by few inferior streaks coming out isolated.

In the former scenario and for the 'clustering' factor we always should get the advantage from, we won't bet a dime and in the latter case the consecutiveness of such isolated inferior streaks patterns will make a huge role in determining our edge.

Therefore if we assume as C= clustered inferior streaks and as I=isolated inferior streaks we know that itlr C=I.

Things change whenever we'd consider more complex distributions where the simplest is the back to back I occurence per any shoe dealt.

So after C or I anything could happen and the same after C-C, yet after I-I the most probable situation to face is to get a C and not another I. Obviously everything always related to the actual probability of success.
That is another I showing up after I-I sequence will be less proportionally probable than facing a I-I-C sequence.

In poorer words, we need quite of time to wait for such situations (I-I), but whenever they'll come out we can get an indeniable sure edge.
BTW, a propensity working at other similar pattern situations.

There are a couple of principal reasons to explain such streaks (and other patterns) propensity:

a) the general factor causing baccarat streaks to be shorter than at a perfect 50/50 proposition;

b) the finiteness of long streaks distribution, especially after coming out by a consecutive fashion.

In some way a kind of "conditional probability" is supposed to work, meaning that the room to get inferior streaks clustered at least one time is somewhat amplified after two "failed" attempts (that is after two consecutive isolated inferior streak classes happening).

It doesn't matter if our betting class is composed by 2s and 3s or 3s and 4s or even 2s and 4s.
Itlr I-I-C > I-I-I by values greater than the 3:1 cutoff ratio.

See you next week

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: KungFuBac on March 23, 2024, 01:18:50 AM
Hi Asym

In the post #1011 above you say:

"...There are a couple of principal reasons to explain such streaks (and other patterns) propensity:

a) the general factor causing baccarat streaks to be shorter than at a perfect 50/50 proposition;

b) the finiteness of long streaks distribution, especially after coming out by a consecutive fashion.
  ..."

On (a) do you mean relative to a coin flip or do you mean in comparison with "even chance ish" games like line bets in Craps?? Both?  Neither??

Thx in advance,kfb
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 24, 2024, 10:00:07 PM
Hi KFB!!!

As you well know (probably better than us) there are several 50/50 propositions: The general factor working for all of them is the allegedly total independence of each trial, taken for granted that BEFORE every trial the real (not expected) probability is 50/50.

Coin flip successions were deeply studied by eminent experts and anyway they are not bettable at any casino. Yet they could be a fair theorical reference model.

Pass and don't pass lines at Craps constitute a slight world apart (and we've discussed some Craps concepts privately).

Probably the best practical example about both independence and virtual perfect 50/50 probability before every trial are represented by the EC distributions at roulette.

Of course baccarat is a 50/50 game only under the eyes of ignorant and clueless people.
Actually it's a strong asymmetrical game for two different reasons 1- B>P and 2- rank cards are unequally distributed along any single shoe dealt. And among ranks, key cards hold a decisive role upon the outcomes.

Do large data teach us that itlr everything will show up by an expected well verified probability correspondent to a kind of coin flip game or 50.68/49.32 proposition?

Yes, if we do not know what to really look for and one of the tool we should be interested at is the consecutiveness of certain results applied to selected patterns.

Actually after having dissected thousands and thousands of shoes, we reached the conclusion that the vast majority of bac results PER SHOE move around seemingly 50/50 propositions by low levels or even neutral levels of asymmetry, yet rank cards cannot be homogeneously distributed for long so giving room to way more detectable shifted situations.

Streaks lenght is just one factor to be studied, consecutiveness of a given pattern is another one. Merging such those two simple factors provide an astounding probability of success capable to  erase and invert the HE.

In fact and especially whether some random walks are in action, bac streaks are shorter than at a 50/50 game, nevertheless in any instance we do not want to try to stop streaks unless they belong to specific back to back patterns.

More later

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 25, 2024, 03:39:28 AM
Baccarat is beatable as card distributions privilege the asimmetry and not the symmetry.

Despite that, per any shoe dealt such asymmetry is underdog to come out meaning that most of the times a kind of symmetry reigns supreme over the total possible results.

It's very likely that casinos do know what we're talking about, so enticing players to make a lot of bets into a symmetrical thus unbeatable world where the HE they take advantage from is a way minor factor role producing their profits.

On the other end, it's 100% certain that casinos do not know a fkng bit about how a symmetrical world would shift into a more detectable asymmetrical model other than by a simple "luck" factor.
After all they rely upon mere math statements and not about intricate statistical features where the decisive factor players should be really interested about is the sd value.

We'll see this in a couple of days.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 26, 2024, 10:02:34 PM
The "ignorant" double wagers mechanical betting (IDW)

It's an approach we've studied after meeting a HS player willing to bet progressively and not capable to wait for 'triggers', asking for a mechanical approach.

Say that instead of trying to guess this or that, regardless of the actual outcomes we'll implement a strict mechanical betting placement as BBPPBBPPBBPPBBPP....

Let's see what are the best or worst patterns to encounter:

1) A long double sequences synchronized with our betting

2) The same double sequences perfectly coming out oppositely to our betting.

As long as no "bad synchronized" back to back doubles show up, we're entitled to win at least one time in three attempts no matter how are the results.
So any chopping line of any lenght belongs to this category and of course any streak 3 or higher will catch at least one win.

More later

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: AsymBacGuy on March 27, 2024, 03:48:12 AM
Statistically speaking, at baccarat doubles are the most likely occurence among all possible patterns thus this plan seems to be unsound, yet the probability to catch long negative sequences will be perfectly symmetrical than crossing long profitable successions, but that's not the point of the method.

In fact the method cannot avoid the inevitable long losing sequences, but to get at least one win per every three hands dealt knowing that back to back low or moderate clustered consecutive streaks are not going to come out around any corner.

Before talking about the progressive multilayered plan, let's consider this shoe sequence.
We assume that the first hand of the shoe will start the BBPPBBPP... action, so if the first hand is a B we'll wager toward BBPPBBPP...and if it's a P the action will be PPBBPPBB...etc
In this shoe sequence (#33.317) first hand is a B.

B
PPP
BBB
P
B
PPP
BB
P
B
P
B
PPP
BB
PP
BB
PPP
BBB
PPPP
B
P
B
P
BBBBB
P
B
PP
BB
PPP

Considering the first hand as neutral (but starting a (B)BPPBBPP.... action) we'll get:

-++++-++-++++--+++-+-+-+-+----+-++-++--+--+++------+

We may even consider the perfect opposite counterpart (meaning we'd start the betting with the PPBBPPBB...betting mood) and we'll get:

-+----+--+-----+-++-++++++++-+----+++--+++--+--+-+-+--

It's true that at this shoe streaks superior than doubles account for a +3 overall ratio and that more or less the number of + will equal the number of -, yet there are important distribution features belonging to the - lenght at both differently taken subsuccessions.

For example, we'll get a greater probability than expected that after a single or a double losing sequence (- or - -) next hand will be a winning one.

Here another shoe sequence:

BB
P
B
P
B
P
B
PPPPP
B
PPPP
B
P
BB
P
B
PPP
B
PP
BB
PPP
BB
PPPPPP
B
PPP
B
PP
BB
P
BB
PP

Again what this shoe looks like under a BBPPBB... action:

+++--++---++-++++---++++-+++++++-+-+--++-+++-++++++-+-

Now the reverse mechanical betting approach (PPBBPPBB...):

---++--+++--+--+++----+++-+++++++-+-+--++-+++-++++++-+-

At this shoe things went even smoother.

People having at their disposal a seven or more figure bankroll do not give a fk about long term edge and let alone about our algorithms, they want to bet, win and gamble.
Yet most of them are not so stu.p.id, in the sense that after a greater than 3-hand losing sequence they'd stop their progressive betting, waiting at least for a single fictional win before restarting the action.
But only a small portion of them know that in order to win itlr one must realize that only a huge bankroll could cover the vast majority of negative fluctuations the game will provide, at the same time aiming for a relatively small profit per every session played.
 
See you next week.

as.
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on March 27, 2024, 06:33:13 AM
Here, you wager for doubles and you will not be very happy at all!
Title: Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
Post by: alrelax on March 27, 2024, 06:37:15 AM
But.........Here you will win a very handsomely 10 units!  And I did just that exact thing on this particular shoe!