Not sure how this will go down and if unacceptable I won't bother.
I am going to share my daily picks for a system that I have been using since late 2011 for selecting longshots in UK horse racing.
It only has a strike rate of between 11-12%, but based on a $1 level stake it has returned just over $1300 since the beginning of 2012 based on Bookmaker starting prices. I don't use bookmakers anymore and only use Betfair because the returns have been a lot better. Also bookmakers have a habit of banning me.
So far this year I have had 4 selections pay over $100 based on a $1 outlay, the highest paid $300 when I got on it, but the BFSP ended up being $160. Most selections are in the $5-20 range, but then there are a lot of losers. This needs to be remembered with any longshot system.
There are A LOT of lurkers on this forum looking for a free lunch who can get any attachment without being a member. For this reason I am going to password protect the selections and only give the password to members with at least 10 posts and a 1 month membership of the forum. Looking through the membership list this seems like a good set of conditions. Most people will not be interested anyway.
I will post the results the next day.
Todays selections attached, if you meet the conditions mentioned above PM me for the password.
Quote from: muggins on September 02, 2014, 06:32:49 AM
Not sure how this will go down and if unacceptable I won't bother.
Muggins - Consider this as a token of appreciation of what you are doing. As a rookie sports bettor, I know how hard it is to determine each and every selection and how much time and effort goes into it. I am glad you decided to share the fruit of your labour with people. +1 for people who will be following your thread until you decide to post.
Cheers
Leapy
Thanks Leapyfrog. Hopefully you had a bet on the selections.
Results for day one follow.
(http://i.imgur.com/6ZPLmLA.jpg)
This was an OK result, but not one that happens every day.
The way I bet with these selections is to start with a bank of $1000 and bet $10 per selection until my bank hits $3000. Obviously, it can take some time to hit this target. Once the bank gets to $3000, bets are increased to $20. Bets are continually increased by $10 for each $1000 increase in bank. When the bank hit $11000, bets are now $100 and that is where I stop increasing until the end of the cycle. Cycles are calendar year, so 12 months. On 1st January each year I start again with a bank of $1000.
I use BFSP (Betfair Starting Price) for my bets. Set and forget style. Obviously this will all fail if the people on here who get the tips get greedy.
This happened on another board in 2009/2010 where I freely supplied tips, so I stopped supplying them. One of the forum members informed me that a member of the forum was using them for their paid tipping service. This is why I am restricting who gets them. If the prices suddenly start plunging all the time I will stop supplying the tips.
Sorry if any of you don't like this, but I really don't have to share these tips at all.
This is just a hobby of mine.
Great idea and very generous of you. :thumbsup:
My eyes popped out on stalks when I saw the winning prices. If that was just an OK session then the 'good' sessions must be outstanding!
You have a rare and valuable talent.
Thank you for the nice comments esoito.
A good session is when a 500/1 tip comes in. :nod:
So far the best BFSP I have had is 403.35 on 15th June 2013, the horse was Hawaiian Freeze, it actually went out to 1000 in running and paid just over $38000 after commission for my $100 bet. It was a nice surprise when I logged in to check results. :o
Punting on the horses has been a hobby of mine since I was about 13 years old I think. I got the bug from my father, who is now very old.
Today's tips are attached, password is same so no need to PM me if you already have it.
A NOTE OF CAUTION TO ANYONE FOLLOWING OR THINKING ABOUT FOLLOWING, THERE HAVE BEEN TIMES WHERE I HAVE GONE 30+ BETS WITHOUT A WIN USING THESE SELECTIONS. AT $10 A BET THAT IS $300+.
No winners today.
(http://i.imgur.com/K0SWSWE.jpg)
Selections for today attached. Note three of the 4 selections are in the same race, this happens occasionally.
Quote from: muggins on September 03, 2014, 01:30:16 AM
A NOTE OF CAUTION TO ANYONE FOLLOWING OR THINKING ABOUT FOLLOWING, THERE HAVE BEEN TIMES WHERE I HAVE GONE 30+ BETS WITHOUT A WIN USING THESE SELECTIONS. AT $10 A BET THAT IS $300+.
Very hard to learn. More hard to practice and even more harder to have the discipline to stick to it. In a short span I have wasted a lot of money in one mad moment. The key I have learnt is being patient and have trust in what you are doing.
Keep up the good work mate.
A salutary warning from Muggins about potential outlays before a winner salutes. :thumbsup:
After all, they're not called 'longshots' for no reason!
No winners again yesterday, a nicely priced one wasn't too far away, unfortunately this happens.....A LOT. :'(
(http://i.imgur.com/RqMoubt.png)
Todays selections attached.
Another miss.
(http://i.imgur.com/JwcYH4V.png)
Todays selections attached.
Muggins, can you see any merit in dropping proposed longshots from your selections that are priced below, say, 8.00?
I ask because your strike rate of 11-12% translates to a price range of 8.30 - 9.00.
I realize that dropping them based on SP is not possible with manual bet'n'forget bets placed in-bulk at the start of the day.
But if you use a bot such as BetbotPRO et alia, you can stipulate your acceptable SP range, of course.
Just a thought for you to ponder...
Yes you could if you wanted to Esoito, when I was doing the Maria style lays I used Grey Horse Bot Lite very effectively, only stoppped because it became a chore after a while and I got to busy at my other job. :(
I just like the set and to use forget on Betfair because it takes very little time. Each to their own I guess.
Almost forgot to post yesterdays results which all lost again ufortunately:
(http://i.imgur.com/feyTn8f.png)
No selections for today.
Todays selections are attached. Overdue for a win here. :(
Quote from: muggins on September 08, 2014, 07:17:47 AM
Overdue for a win here. :(
Good luck Muggins.
Quote from: esoito on September 07, 2014, 03:16:10 AM
I ask because your strike rate of 11-12% translates to a price range of 8.30 - 9.00.
Just a thought on this, and i might be wrong as well as am all new to this. Just seeing the results so far, 2 wins out of 3 has come from a price that is less than 8.00. Also, I believe that strike rate of 11-12% will drop even further if those bets are dropped. Morever, 8.30-9.00 is a weighted average of price range required to be in the winning mark. Considering you have a couple of wins in 5-6 range and couple of wins in 12-15 range, your average might still be in the range of 8.30-9.00.
The problem I find is that when a losing run comes along with any system or formula the urge is always there to tinker with the formula, this more often than not has the effect of breaking it.
These selections come from a set of parameters which obviously can be tinkered with, but have to date been quite successful for me.
That is not to say that it can't stop being successful. :) The funny or not so funny thing I have found in the past is that when I post selections for the public after being very successful the selections often fail for a period of time and I stop posting or everyone loses interest, as soon as that happens a winning streak comes along. Go figure. :o
Quote from: muggins on September 08, 2014, 09:16:15 AM
The problem I find is that when a losing run comes along with any system or formula the urge is always there to tinker with the formula, this more often than not has the effect of breaking it.
Muggins - you are so right. I have seen this outside gambling as well.
Quote from: muggins on September 08, 2014, 09:16:15 AM
Go figure. :o
All i can say is requote what you said - "Long term is so much better than short term". With the pace of the world, I see every way of investing now becoming a gambling - be it house or financials or traditional gambling - everyone needs results now and right now. We often miss the big picture.
No winners again yesterday. :'(
(http://i.imgur.com/hYwG5Dl.png)
Also no selections for today.
Muggins, Sorry to interrupt the flow of your thread. But I have to pause and say a big thank you to you for shaping the thought process and all the numerous PMs you helped answer. I have adopted your strategy and so far i have seen it working as sweet as it can. I am an absolute novice when compared to your years and years of experience, but a big thank you for sharing the strategy and approach which is a crux of your experience.
Apart from the winnings, the amount of placings i get validate this. Hope this trend continues. Look forward for your selections.
[attachimg=1]
Doing well Leapyfrog, glad I was able to help. Patience and perseverance is essential for this way of betting I found. It helps to, like roulette have more than one method running all the time.
No selections again today.
Todays selections attached.
Sorry for delay, completely forgot about it. Yesterdays results, not good again. :'(
(http://i.imgur.com/EvH1Dpd.png)
Todays selection attached, yes only one today. They are really drying up at the moment.
When winners finally arrive you'll likely get a cluster of them...(he said, optimistically!)
Joking apart, that often happens, I've noticed.
Well not even close yesterday. :o
(http://i.imgur.com/KtKsaXY.png)
Maybe todays will cluster. :)) You are right though esoito, winners do often come in clusters when you least expect them.
I still believe Muggins. Keep up the good work. :thumbsup:
For any (impatient) onlookers who are starting to think of moving on ponder this:
LONGshots are for the LONG term.
Regardless of the selection method(s)used they never have -- and never will -- result in the same winning frequency as, say, odd-on horses.
Their long odds tell you that !
[Incidentally, as an alternative to flat bets betting-to-prices is a common strategy when following longshots.]
Quote from: esoito on September 13, 2014, 11:53:29 PM
For any (impatient) onlookers who are starting to think of moving on.
Is it OK if I become one of those thinking of moving on. LOL, as usual when I start sharing my selections they bomb big time. :o
Another unsuccessful day yesterday, broken record......
(http://i.imgur.com/QoYEU8Z.png)
No selections for today either.
Hang in there, muggins!
You know it's profitable overall. So don't give up. :nod:
Take heart from comments and insights by a very experienced colleague, Peter:
http://www.racerate.com/YOUR_Racing_System.htm (http://www.racerate.com/YOUR_Racing_System.htm)
All his thoughtful articles contain gems.
I guess keep doing whatever works for you. Just make sure to know when there will be huge changes that could affect it. (https://imagicon.info/cat/10-3/1.gif)
I don't give up that easily, this has given me very good returns since 2012, bad runs are par for the course when picking long shots. Considering I have been running this in Calendar year cycles is was probably not a good idea to start 2 thirds of the way though.
Todays selections, quite a few today.
YAY a winner at last. :o
(http://i.imgur.com/7dgOPYq.png)
Todays selections attached.
One winner again:
(http://i.imgur.com/TESzLPh.png)
Todays selections attached.
Muggins,
As you know I have been using this concept and I must conclude that based on the short period where i have trialled it, it is really working well. See below, and once again a big thank you. The returns are based on a 5 quid investment.
[attachimg=1]
Keep up the great work and I will be eagerly looking forward for your selections every day, as the selections are really interesting.
Cheers
Leap
Hi Muggins -- A couple of questions if I may. Well done with the winners by the way, hopefully we've hit bottom :)
The credits for your last 2 winners are less than the odds you have displayed e.g Hostile fire yesterday , the sp was 6.6 and your winnings were £53.20,that doesn't make sense to me, why is this ?
Secondly my winners for the last 2 days show 10.5 and 9.0 when yours shows 7.8 and 6.6. Not complaining in any way, just wondering why ?
When I place my bets I click on the " sp " to the right of the horse on the race card , the bet slip comes up I put my stake in and click on " place bets " . I don't touch anything else. Am I doing anything different to you ?
Don't want to miss out when the big 1 comes in lol.
Cheers.
Good stuff Leapyfrog.
Quote from: klw on September 17, 2014, 10:29:23 AM
The credits for your last 2 winners are less than the odds you have displayed e.g Hostile fire yesterday , the sp was 6.6 and your winnings were £53.20,that doesn't make sense to me, why is this ?
This i can answer. The bet amount was 10. If this is a win you will get 66 back. that's a profit of 56 (66 return -10 bet). Bet fair default commission charge is 5% on any profit per market. So 5% on a profit of 56 is 2.8. The final amount that will be settled for you is 53.2 (56 profit less the 2.8 commission).
Now consider instead of one selection from a race you had two selections at 6.6 and 10.5. The selection 6.6 won. The profit you get is 46(66 return - 10 bet on 6.6 and 10 bet on 10.5). The commission charge will now be 2.3 and the final amount settled for you is 43.7. Hope this clarifies the doubt you had.
Quote from: klw on September 17, 2014, 10:29:23 AM
Secondly my winners for the last 2 days show 10.5 and 9.0 when yours shows 7.8 and 6.6. Not complaining in any way, just wondering why ?
I might know why. But let me confirm the BFSP of winners yesterday. See below, Hostile fire BSP is 6.6.
[attachimg=1]
Quote from: klw on September 17, 2014, 10:29:23 AM
When I place my bets I click on the " sp " to the right of the horse on the race card , the bet slip comes up I put my stake in and click on " place bets " . I don't touch anything else. Am I doing anything different to you ?
I believe you might be using the sportsbook instead of the exchange. In sports book, what you have to do is click the SP next to it. As far as i know it is someething that is provided by the bookies. However if you do in exchange it uses a formula based on backer and layer odds and balance it out to calculate the SP. An example of getting bet fair SP for a race today.
Select the Horse racing under Exchange option in Betfair
[attachimg=2]
Go to the race card and click on the checkbox that says Betfair SP. You will get an additional column in the middle.
[attachimg=3]
Click on SP against your selection and not the exchange numbers, and then you pray to God (just kidding) then you will be guaranteed the same price that Muggins uses :).
[attachimg=4]
Cheers
Leap
Leapyfrog has it right, even if I get a better price than what the BFSP is I just use the BFSP for the end of day calculations and you have take into account the backing amount and BF commission for returns. On another forum which will remain nameless I was accused of making up prices with selections I posted because they were often unobtainable by the time I posted my selections for everyone to see (prior to running). Therefore here I only post BFSP that way there can be no arguements. Before the off in all likelyhood you could have gotten better odds or in some cases worse odds on the winner (s) than the BFSP.
Thank you for your time and replies gents.
Off to a good start to the day, then the rot set in with some close seconds. :upsidedown:
(http://i.imgur.com/SJDfFop.png)
Todays selections attached, many selections and a lot of multiples so use discretion if you choose.
I have a real strange feeling on today's selections. Good luck Muggins.
That was not the greatest, unfortunately I sort of expected it a bit, as Leapyfrog did to I think.
(http://i.imgur.com/m2wv19q.png)
Today's selections attached.
Quote from: muggins on September 19, 2014, 08:31:27 AM
That was not the greatest, unfortunately I sort of expected it a bit, as Leapyfrog did to I think.
Today's selections attached.
Yes, i thought yesterday was punters day, with most of the races not running with long favourites, with multiple selections filtered through your winning criteria it could have gone either way. Glad had my money on Harrisons cave and Portrade. As the day drew close, I thought you almost nailed it on Oakbank as i was watching them run. But today after a long time, I think we will at least have a double winner. I also think some of your selections will be favourites or JF before the running. Cheers m8.
A better day finally, got back on track a bit. :-*
(http://i.imgur.com/sbVMmZt.png)
Todays selections attached.
I could hear sighs of relief! They'll help the deficit. More to come... ;)
Quote from: esoito on September 20, 2014, 04:50:45 AM
I could hear sighs of relief! They'll help the deficit. More to come... ;)
:thumbsup: I had hoped so, but alas. :'( A cut and paste mistake cost anyone following a winner yesterday and unfortunately a repeat of the day before was avoided, my apologies. When editing the list yesterday prior to posting, I accidently cut the selections for the 4.25 at Ayr and didn't notice until checking results today.
Results below:
(http://i.imgur.com/hT4PELc.png)
Todays selections attached, no mistakes today. :)
Small win for the day, better than nothing:
(http://i.imgur.com/ZL0IxKw.png)
Todays Attached.
Yesterdays results.
(http://i.imgur.com/eK9iWQz.png)
Todays attached.
Yesterday's results:
(http://i.imgur.com/wRimOxy.png)
Today's attached.
(http://i.imgur.com/HMqLdEa.png)
Today's attached.
So, after about a month of beginning all this, what is your ROI?
Quote from: Albalaha on September 25, 2014, 06:26:24 AM
So, after about a month of beginning all this, what is your ROI?
This thread is a month of posting, but not a month of beginning
all this.
As I stated in the first post I am nearing the end of the 3rd full year of running this method of selecting, which I started using midway through 2011.
Unfortunately there are ebbs and flows with winners and September hasn't been the best of months for 2014. May 2013 was much worse, but 2013 was still a winning year overall, almost doubling returns for 2012 and almost as good as the to date returns for 2014. Even with the bad month of September, 2014 is ahead of 2013, but you only see the posting for the last "about a month".
The problem with most punters is that they want immediate results and are not prepared to look at long term goals.
Wait until the end of August 2015 before you judge how successful this is. Then I will give you a ROI figure.
Quote from: Albalaha on September 25, 2014, 06:26:24 AM
So, after about a month of beginning all this, what is your ROI?
Dear Albalaha,
I asked Muggins when all this started, can you please share with me the selection criteria rather than the selections in itself. His answer "NO". However he helped me in understanding certain elements of horse racing which i would not have come to know about it otherwise. He also told me that
"Punting cannot be taught. One has to learn it with their own experience". It is so true.
To me the best element of this thread is the strategy. Typical betting strategy is finding the favourites on lower odds which depends heavily on getting a higher win ratio. While this might work in other sports, Horse racing is slightly different. I have been using Paddy power to bet Muggins selections and have been using betfair to do my selections based on the principles learnt. Ofcourse sometimes these selections match what muggins posts but 80-90% of times it is different from what he posts.
My basic units is 5 pounds and following is my snapshot on horse racing in betfair for the month, which is
a 20% return on the initial 500. However, i also measure how much returns i have had in terms of the amount i invest. I have so far made 57 bets (57*5= 285 pounds) with a retunr of 100 pounds which gives me an
ROI of 35%[attachimg=1]
In this post earlier i had posted screenshots as well on how a typical days selections look like.
All i can say is keep up the good work Muggins.
Thanks Leapyfrog, hopefully you are still doing well.
Yesterdays results and they were dire: :o
(http://i.imgur.com/03oEYjk.png)
Today's attached.
Quote from: muggins on September 26, 2014, 10:28:23 AM
Thanks Leapyfrog, hopefully you are still doing well.
Doing well muggins. Day by day i feel am learning more and more. My results from today as below. Slow and steadily building up in the hopes of replicating your success.
[attachimg=1]
Strewth -- nice profits there, LF. :thumbsup:
Obviously a bit more than 'beginner's luck' is at work!! Well done.
Very well done Leapyfrog, really good to see. :thumbsup:
Todays results are below:
(http://i.imgur.com/fztnb8G.png)
Todays selections attached.
Results for yesterday:
(http://i.imgur.com/H3biWdR.png)
Todays attached.
Yesterdays results:
(http://i.imgur.com/wMGIOQH.png)
Todays attached.
Results for yesterday:
(http://i.imgur.com/ONUIoMR.png)
Todays attached.
Results for yesterday:
(http://i.imgur.com/lkCUkRe.png)
Todays attached.
Hey muggins. Missed your selections today
Bankroll is having lots of ups and downs.
Quote from: Leapyfrog on October 02, 2014, 09:26:49 PM
Hey muggins. Missed your selections today
Was away unfornately couldn't get to a computer, to process everything. Results for Wednesday and todays selections will be up later, only just got home.
Wednesdays Results:
(http://i.imgur.com/BlUhDm5.png)
No Selections for 2nd October, unable to get to computer for day.
Todays selections attached.
Quote from: muggins on October 03, 2014, 10:49:16 AM
Todays selections attached.
A Wolverhampton win is due. Hope it's today
Sorry for late posting, out all day.
Yesterdays results:
(http://i.imgur.com/f07zUY9.jpg)
Todays attached. Good luck leapy. :)
Thanks Muggins! Looks good. (https://imagicon.info/cat/10-3/1.gif)
Quote from: peleus on October 04, 2014, 01:49:37 PM
Thanks Muggins! Looks good. (https://imagicon.info/cat/10-3/1.gif)
Having a very topsy turvy run at the moment, not totally unexpected, but hopefully it will improve.
Yesterdays results, not so good:
(http://i.imgur.com/TeNCBYn.jpg)
Todays selections attached.
Any new selections so far please? I was just looking around though. (https://imagicon.info/cat/10-3/1.gif)
Till Muggins turns up.
1400 - Catakanta, Winning hunter
1430 - Cosmic ray
1500 - Lady Guinevere, Miniskirt
1535 - Francos secret, Sea tiger, Hope and fortune
1610 - Lady Brigid, First in command
1640 - Lady Marl
1710 - roskilly
1740 - Rideonastar, Bella Verana
Todays selections
14:30 Whisky Marmalade, Goneinaminute, Littlemissparton
15:00 Invino veritas, McVicar
15:30 Miss Tree
16:00 - Lady yeats, Madam lillibet
16:30 - Penina, Sleeping Apache
17:00 - Chiswick bey, Lorimers lot
17:30 - Clumber place
18:00 - By Jupiter
18:30 - For Shia And Lula
19:00 - Stay Silent
19:30 - Almanack
20:00 - Sbraase
20:30 - Dutch Lady
Results from last two days.
[attachimg=1]
Todays results. Am glad - Have doubled the bankroll :cheer:
[attachimg=1]
Todays selections
[attachimg=1]
Yesterdays results
Just to put things in perspective, if you have used a 1000 bank roll and place 10 bets your bank would be around 2100 mark now.
[attachimg=1]
Todays selections
[attachimg=2]
Sarsted, priced at 1.34, was more of a shortshot...LOLOL
You're doing remarkably well with your picks. :thumbsup:
Few more for today in the evening race.
[attachimg=1]
Quote from: esoito on October 16, 2014, 02:15:17 AM
Sarsted, priced at 1.34, was more of a shortshot...LOLOL
He he. I actually do my picks before the bookmakers prices are out. So I wouldn't really know what the market says. Then I have an yardstick to see whether the market will also be guided in a similar direction and then remove all selections where i believe there will be he market support. Some do slip and this one is a good example that you picked up. I indeed thought market will move towards Sea of red. But they didn't :)
I think I saw that one but never really saw it coming. I guess another thing to figure out then. (https://imagicon.info/cat/10-3/1.gif)
Quote from: peleus on October 19, 2014, 03:41:22 PM
I think I saw that one but never really saw it coming. I guess another thing to figure out then. (https://imagicon.info/cat/10-3/1.gif)
didn't quite get the reference.
Results from 16th
[attachimg=1]
Thought will pep up this board a bit. :)
[attachimg=1]
[attachimg=1]
Nice to see that balance steadily putting on weight! :thumbsup:
Muggins.....Leapy....where are you?
It was getting interesting....
Occupied with some social work with a holiday coming in. Also, focussing on reaping some benefits from a style of baccarat play while the lucky diva is still shining on me. So decided to give racing a break for a month or so. But just so as to keep the interest going,
1250 - Lingfield - Fine View
1320 - Lingfield - Vanishing
1350 - Lingfield - Horse shoe bay
1420 - Lingfield - Starlit Cantata
1450 - Lingfield - Water hole
1520 - Lingfield - Hidden gold
1550 - Lingfield - Intransigent, Red Refraction
1620 - Lingfield - Afkar
Good luck folks