People talk about how they are so successful at 'negative progressions' on this board. Sure. That is my answer. If you are truly honest and you do truly profit consistently with negative progressions, you are probably in all essence defying the odds that have wiped countless numbers of players out.
Sounds good and when you guys say, I always or I almost always or the majority of times, etc., etc., and so on--with negative progressions, others without the table experience are probably formulating some kind of attack and plan as they read.
However, there are severe consequences and to name the one that I witness all the time, here it is:
What if it turns and goes to the 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th repeat when you are playing and negatively wagering to win back you losses for the 'cut' and the 5th through the 10th was repeats. Or, what if you are wagering for the repeats and it cuts for the 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th time?
It does and it will and you will get sucked in even more when it does. I have seen those repeatedly, so many times and it seldom changes. You say you will stop when it hits the 4th or 5th loss on your negative progression. Yeah right. But what happens when that does come about 2-3 or even 4 times---that adds up to be huge additional losses. Meaning, you had 2-3 or 4 failed attempts at the negative progression (with several/numerous hands in each attempt!) and now you have to add up and multiply that initial loss by numerous additional attempts that could not break you even. The real problem is that negative progression works and then it fails. When it fails you are compounding multiple times the losses and the emotional factor will be huge.
I have found through decades of playing that it is easier (not always possible but easier) to make up losses flat betting or one positive parlay and then back to flat and setting aside the wins for the losses you previously had.
And when all that happens, the player gets even more instant stress, emptions and the cloudiness added to his vision and focus will be super hard to get rid of for some time.
Using the deep negative progression is one of then only ways to win regular at the baccarats, Betting flat don't feed the bulldog, hey hey!
Quote from: soxfan on May 22, 2017, 10:29:02 PM
Using the deep negative progression is one of then only ways to win regular at the baccarats, Betting flat don't feed the bulldog, hey hey!
I won't argue that it's the only way to win just because I don't know how to win flat betting. So I'll give my opinion to why I agree with Soxfan. Unless you have a superb betting scheme that will always give you more than 50%, your outcome will depend on which way your luck swings. In the long run, everyone's guess will approach the 50% mark. That means the wins or losses are at the minimal. With a negative progression, we will lose big naturally when our guesses are way below 50% and win big when it's way above it. With negative progression we also ave a chance to win when it's at the 50% or slightly below 50%, which doesn't happen with flat bets.
Quote from: alrelax on May 22, 2017, 05:15:59 PM
People talk about how they are so successful at 'negative progressions' on this board. Sure. That is my answer. If you are truly honest and you do truly profit consistently with negative progressions, you are probably in all essence defying the odds that have wiped countless numbers of players out.
Sounds good and when you guys say, I always or I almost always or the majority of times, etc., etc., and so on--with negative progressions, others without the table experience are probably formulating some kind of attack and plan as they read.
However, there are severe consequences and to name the one that I witness all the time, here it is:
What if it turns and goes to the 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th repeat when you are playing and negatively wagering to win back you losses for the 'cut' and the 5th through the 10th was repeats. Or, what if you are wagering for the repeats and it cuts for the 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th time?
I agree that you will suffer severe consequences when things start to go south. So far everyone that I came across and including myself have suffered from more than 10 consecutive losses, not just once but many times. I might not be here on this forum as long as some of the dinosaurs here or played the game as long as some but I can probably say I put in just the same amount of time in searching for that ultimate system or approach.
I have never had a strict money management such as the Marty, D'alembert or some of the well known ones. I don't have a strict bet selection scheme either. I don't use any of it because I'm reluctant to put down a huge percentage of my bankroll on a bet. However, I find that a 7-8 step nested Marty works well. One can argue that it's no longer a Marty when it gets nested.(Egg jokes coming)
I do not know about the other brick and mortar casinos, however I can tell you in the Midwest many of them are $25 or $50 minimum and there are numerous that are $100 and up there is only a couple maybe a handful that are $10 - 2000 but they are not plentiful so it depends where you're comfortable and successful at. As far as deep consequences you do the math at 10.00 to 500 a hand to start with and progressed from there, you will you have four maybe five losses before you're at table Max and cannot wager anymore. I'd rather have 5 chances to do positive progressions and a little bit of flat betting or bet one, win one and save half, rather than go from 250 to 500 to 1000 to 2000 to 4000. That is a total of $7,750 to break even or make $250 and to me that it is insane. I would take my for extra chances after losing the 250 to do a positive progression or to win and set aside certain amounts to recover which to me is easier but once again all in my experience and in my opinion.
My whole point over the many years I have played is the emotional the aura and the many other intangibles that come into existence with or without the players knowledge. On a negative progression to break even or make one unit is very very unsuccessful to most players. If you are playing very small money $5 or $10 and doing 5 or 6 or 7th of progressions it is possible to break even or make one unit I'll stop there on the negative progressions I have way too much experience. For new players not having much experience it's a very good experience if you can afford to lose most of your bankroll because you will get sucked in and that's how I see the upper majority of the people inexperienced or experience playing negative progressions go. There are exceptions to the rule of a few in every hundred possibly, good luck if that's what you're doing.
As far as flatbetting and positive progressions if you win and have a rock-solid money management system and some way to lock up money for numerous areas you are playing that is the only way to go to Prevail at Baccarat in my opinion.
I guess writing it out on a piece of paper with a $250 wager to start and losing it, having five additional chances at $250 to win and if I won I would positive progression and if I lost all six, I would be losing $1,500. Now on the other hand a negative progression, if I lost all six I would lose $15,750. But if we are talking about starting with $5 and going six times losing then your total would be $315. If you start with $10 and lose all 6 you would lose $630. I have no idea about the rest of you I don't go to the casino to win $5 or $10 and risk 300 or $600 respectively. All that energy and cloudiness to do a negative progression and try to break even for myself and myself only is senseless, I would divert all the energy and positive motivation and positive thinking into doing flatbetting or positive progressions to recoup anything and make money. My chances would be huge compared to a negative progression to prevail. At times a one or two wager negative progression would be reasonable but once you get to a third or a fourth and greater the chance of failure several times throughout the shoe or the session is too large in reality..
Quote from: alrelax on May 23, 2017, 10:57:42 AM
As far as flatbetting and positive progressions if you win and have a rock-solid money management system and some way to lock up money for numerous areas you are playing that is the only way to go to Prevail at Baccarat in my opinion.
You mean rock-solid bet selection? If it's flat, it's flat and positive will always be positive. Nothing changes there. I think u mean solid bet selection.
Those numbers you mention are huge. I play in the lower end. We're fortunate to have $10 tables recently. 10 years ago, minimum was $25, $50, $100 and $300. When it gets busy, is $50 min and $100 min when it gets super busy. Of course that doesn't happen anymore.
I would much prefer positive progression but in my experience I can hardly win on most days. I have too many of those losing hands. The only way I can overcome those losing hands is to use a negative progression. Don't know how to improve bet selection. Another way to overcome that is to separate those losses, that's where nesting comes in. Many seem to think if they can win 250(5%) when their bankroll is say 5K that they can win 500(5%) with 10K. What they don't realize is the range of table limits will limit them. It's much hard to play 50 - 5K and it would be to play $10-2K.
My 7-8 step progress is 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320 and 640. I get to 320 pretty frequent. At least once or twice a day with 640. With a 5K bankroll (more like 10K with backup in pocket). While 640 isn't much, it's significant when you run into it at the beginning. You are already down 630 and with another loss of 640, you're down 1270. That is over one fifth of your bankroll.
Collecting $10 isn't much but if you play enough hands, it easily adds up to $300 for the day. This is the part that looks bad. Here you go, taking about 2-3 $320 bets and even a $640 bet for the day and yet you're only making $300 for the day. My friend always make an effort to tell me that and ask why I don't just go in and take a $300 bet and leave. It just doesn't work that way.
It's hard to fathom make $300 a day by collecting $10 for every series of bet. Like the D'alembert, nesting allows you to collect $10 for every bet you make. You just don't always get it right away. The only down fall of D'alembert is reaching a high limit and get stuck in a loop with large bets. With nested Marty, you get to reset and breathe a sigh of relief once you get a win to end the series.
Quote from: Babu on May 24, 2017, 05:27:19 AM
You mean rock-solid bet selection? If it's flat, it's flat and positive will always be positive. Nothing changes there. I think u mean solid bet selection.
Those numbers you mention are huge. I play in the lower end. We're fortunate to have $10 tables recently. 10 years ago, minimum was $25, $50, $100 and $300. When it gets busy, is $50 min and $100 min when it gets super busy. Of course that doesn't happen anymore.
I would much prefer positive progression but in my experience I can hardly win on most days. I have too many of those losing hands. The only way I can overcome those losing hands is to use a negative progression. Don't know how to improve bet selection. Another way to overcome that is to separate those losses, that's where nesting comes in. Many seem to think if they can win 250(5%) when their bankroll is say 5K that they can win 500(5%) with 10K. What they don't realize is the range of table limits will limit them. It's much hard to play 50 - 5K and it would be to play $10-2K.
My 7-8 step progress is 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320 and 640. I get to 320 pretty frequent. At least once or twice a day with 640. With a 5K bankroll (more like 10K with backup in pocket). While 640 isn't much, it's significant when you run into it at the beginning. You are already down 630 and with another loss of 640, you're down 1270. That is over one fifth of your bankroll.
Collecting $10 isn't much but if you play enough hands, it easily adds up to $300 for the day. This is the part that looks bad. Here you go, taking about 2-3 $320 bets and even a $640 bet for the day and yet you're only making $300 for the day. My friend always make an effort to tell me that and ask why I don't just go in and take a $300 bet and leave. It just doesn't work that way.
It's hard to fathom make $300 a day by collecting $10 for every series of bet. Like the D'alembert, nesting allows you to collect $10 for every bet you make. You just don't always get it right away. The only down fall of D'alembert is reaching a high limit and get stuck in a loop with large bets. With nested Marty, you get to reset and breathe a sigh of relief once you get a win to end the series.
No Babu, I was correct is what I stated. I do have a rock solid 100% 'win-hold' money management system and that is my 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd that I detailed previously on the board either in Baccarat Thread Room or my own Blog here.
It is a 100% rock-solid money management system that if I won I will never give it back as I and so many others have done and others continually do every time I am at the casino. I don't anymore. At least since I developed this and got used to it. Only once (and that was recently) in the past say 5 years anyway.
Hi I like the idea of the 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 management, I will apply it. But for the bets, I think the combination of positive and negative progressions will be better. Like for instance you have a winning streak, you should raise bet after wins so that you can reach your target profit immediately (lets say 10% of your game bankroll) and leave. Anyway even if you lose, you are using the house money for it and not your bankroll so you can start again. Example is your 1-3-2-6. You can use this or other positive progressions. 100,100,100 then 300, 200,100,100,then 600. it's a great progression no question about it but what if you went south? lets say -100,-100,-100? What if 5 times? How can you recoup your loss if you will not increase your bet size and stick to 100?
Negative progression is fine I think. But most players use martingale 1,2,4,8,16 etc. or any type of martingales which consumes most of their bankroll against 1 unit bet? Its not good strategy. 6th-7th losing streak and you are done. Although it has lesser probability but it will happen and can happen anytime. You must have balanced Risk-Reward ratio. Ask yoursel if it's worth it to risk all your money for this bet or should I stop and recover next time. Me, I use similar to fibonacci for negative progression. 1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34 per unit so for $100 it will be, 100,200,30,500,800. etc. Every time I win, I go back to original bet of $100 at least you have a lesser amount to recover and can make it up once you make a winning streak using positive progression.
The important part here is that you must have stop loss so that you will not consume all your bank roll. Me, my stop loss is on the 13 units. If I reached 13 units, win or lose I stop leave. I come back next day with clear mind and still enough bankroll. If I lose at 13th, I only lose 30% of my bank roll and if I win I only lose 6 units. My target per session is at least 10% of my game bankroll. So even I lose 30% of my bankroll the other day, Winning 10% for 3 times and Im break even rather than risk it all. Of course, it depends how much is your game roll. To bet $100 per hand you must have atleast 8K-10K game bank roll.
The only thing I have a difficulty with or most of us is where to place the bets. There are so many theories where to place bets but If your betting placements is working then do not bother to change it. Either you use patterns or guessing if it works for you or other betting placement methods. I think one important factor here also is discipline. You must have rules or plans to follow. Failing to plan is planning to fail. If you hit your target (reasonable) or stop loss, stop and leave. Continue next session or next day once you are refreshed and not exhausted anymore. Anyway Im still newbie to this game but I think baccarat is more profitable than other income stream out there like stocks, forex or binary. They are very hard to understand and will take you lot of time to master because the market is unpredictable. For binary it is only put or call but if you win you will get only 70% of your bet placement. Unlike baccarat(player or banker), it is 95-100%.
Im glad I found this forum. I learned a lot of things here for free than any other paid courses out there.
With my style I could win well and regular winning under 17% of my placed bet. And, now on average I get clipped for 5 progression bust for every hundred shoe, so I make cake on the other 95 shoe and easily offset the progression busts and skate with a nice profit, hey hey.
Quote from: soxfan on May 24, 2017, 06:57:12 PM
With my style I could win well and regular winning under 17% of my placed bet. And, now on average I get clipped for 5 progression bust for every hundred shoe, so I make cake on the other 95 shoe and easily offset the progression busts and skate with a nice profit, hey hey.
All kidding aside and 100% serious. If you are playing negative progression and you only experience (as you say get clipped) for the 5th negative progression every 100th shoe you play, that is astronomically great.
That means, there is never a 5th repeating winning hand in 99 shoes when you engage in negative progression.
If that is correct, that is a one of a kind casino you have there.
If I remember correctly, Sox fan was using 13 steps 100 units negative progression.
13 step negative progression would be a 40,960.00 wager on the 13th step with a first sling wager of 10.00. About 80,000.00 risk to make 10.00. Tables limits would forbid it anyway.
Yes, his is a 13 steps progression uses 100 units. It is not a martingale. It is working well for me. I never had to go pass the 8th step and again, I only looked for a few units of win each day.
Quote from: goez on May 25, 2017, 01:04:08 AM
If I remember correctly, Sox fan was using 13 steps 100 units negative progression.
Quote from: alrelax on May 25, 2017, 01:36:17 AM
13 step negative progression would be a 40,960.00 wager on the 13th step with a first sling wager of 10.00. About 80,000.00 risk to make 10.00. Tables limits would forbid it anyway.
Are you really the john-O, for real, hey hey?
Quote from: Bhumibol on May 25, 2017, 04:45:31 AM
Yes, his is a 13 steps progression uses 100 units. It is not a martingale. It is working well for me. I never had to go pass the 8th step and again, I only looked for a few units of win each day.
If I can recall correctly, it requires successfully winning two in a row. I think the sequence goes 1,1,3,....
I tried it and failed miserably. It's great when it worked but I busted 6 or 7 out of 10. Although I don't know what the bet selection side of it was like. I just know with that money scheme, I failed. I would love to see someone demonstrate success with it for at least 15 SESSIONS consisting of 8 shoes without busting.
Found it:
This is my parlay style, hey hey.
1-1-1-1-2-3-4-6-8-11-15-20-27 units bets
3-2-1-0-2-3-3-5-5-6-7-7-8 units profits
Quote from: soxfan on May 24, 2017, 06:57:12 PM
With my style I could win well and regular winning under 17% of my placed bet. And, now on average I get clipped for 5 progression bust for every hundred shoe, so I make cake on the other 95 shoe and easily offset the progression busts and skate with a nice profit, hey hey.
I think what soxfan is stating is that out of every 100 shoes played, there are around 5 times where he plays the full negative progression to the 13th bet of 27 units and loses the full 13 in a row. However typically playing overall is showing more than enough winning to compensate for these progression losses. This means there are many other times where he is going into the negative progression to various degrees, but the strike rate and winning are strong enough to cover that as well.
Quote from: Babu on May 26, 2017, 04:44:55 AM
Found it:
This is my parlay style, hey hey.
1-1-1-1-2-3-4-6-8-11-15-20-27 units bets
3-2-1-0-2-3-3-5-5-6-7-7-8 units profits
What does this mean?
3-2-1-0-2-3-3-5-5-6-7-7-8 units profits
______________________________________
What do people think about this way to apply the negative progression:
1-1-1-1-2-3-4-6-8-11-15-20-27 units bets
What if after betting 4 units and losing (7 losses in a row) you allocate the remaining bets to betting WITH Long Bank or Long Player Dragons? That is, you walk around and find shoes that are in the midst of a Long Bank or Long Player Dragon that is at 8, 9, or 10 wins in a row. Those are Long Dragons that are very strong formations. You could even just look for 8's, 9's, or 10's only. BET WITH THE TREND. That means you have 6, 8, 11, 15, 20, and 27 unit bets (6 shots) of betting WITH a very strong formation AND being unlucky enough to pick the exact point that it chops to the other side winning.
If you want to be more conservative you could start your Long Dragon riding/ bail out after 4 or 5 losses in a row with 2 or 3 units. That would give 8-9 shots of having a Long Dragon continue or you have to be unlucky 8-9 times in a row to catch a Long Dragon breaking/ chopping to the other side right when you decide to bet WITH it.
Most active big houses should be fine with this progression up into the $1,000 - $2,000 unit range if they know you are your money is properly sourced.
Thanks Babu.
I use it with a bet selection that calls for a few bets per certain decisions and only look for 3 unit wins. Maybe this is why I do well with it.
I will report again how it goes in the next 6 months or if it does not hold up before than.
Quote from: Babu on May 26, 2017, 04:44:55 AM
If I can recall correctly, it requires successfully winning two in a row. I think the sequence goes 1,1,3,....
I tried it and failed miserably. It's great when it worked but I busted 6 or 7 out of 10. Although I don't know what the bet selection side of it was like. I just know with that money scheme, I failed. I would love to see someone demonstrate success with it for at least 15 SESSIONS consisting of 8 shoes without busting.
Found it:
This is my parlay style, hey hey.
1-1-1-1-2-3-4-6-8-11-15-20-27 units bets
3-2-1-0-2-3-3-5-5-6-7-7-8 units profits
Quote from: soxfan on May 26, 2017, 01:39:17 AM
Are you really the john-O, for real, hey hey?
You came on my thread and now you are provoking and applying a derogatory slang accusation to me.
Words don't hurt, so don't twist and turn what I am saying.
I did not talk down or slang to you, both not good for the board. You like to twist and turn things and as far as your 13 step negative progression, it is worthless IMO and the opinion of so many long term players. But that is not the point really. You brought this to putting your hands on your hips and trying to convince so many how piling on chips in negative progression that does not even recoup and kids stuff with the name calling you have elected to engage in.
As I said before (when you went into moderation) PLEASE refrain from my threads coming on and talking you degradation, humiliation and plain horse-stuff.
Quote from: 21 Aces on May 26, 2017, 06:42:41 AM
What does this mean?
3-2-1-0-2-3-3-5-5-6-7-7-8 units profits
Yes, that is units profit as stated. So if you parlay the first 1 and succeed, you win 3 units. If you parlay 2nd 1 and succeed, you win 3 units minus the 1st unit you loss and profit 2. When you succeed with the 3rd 1, you get 3 units minus the 2 loss units and get 1 unit profit. So if you parlay 27 and win, minus all the previously loss units, you make 8 units. I guess a lot of people tried this out wrong because they don't understand it.
Quote from: 21 Aces on May 26, 2017, 06:42:41 AM
I think what soxfan is stating is that out of every 100 shoes played, there are around 5 times where he plays the full negative progression to the 13th bet of 27 units and loses the full 13 in a row. However typically playing overall is showing more than enough winning to compensate for these progression losses. This means there are many other times where he is going into the negative progression to various degrees, but the strike rate and winning are strong enough to cover that as well.
Forgot to mention that it's not the straight unit bets, you have to win a parlay. That is the difficult part. Those losses will put you in a deep hole and difficult to overcome. UNLESS and good bet selection can overcome it, you will fail miserably. If one claims they have a bet selection good enough to win those parlays, then I have nothing to argue about.
Quote from: 21 Aces on May 26, 2017, 06:42:41 AM
What do people think about this way to apply the negative progression:
1-1-1-1-2-3-4-6-8-11-15-20-27 units bets
What if after betting 4 units and losing (7 losses in a row) you allocate the remaining bets to betting WITH Long Bank or Long Player Dragons? That is, you walk around and find shoes that are in the midst of a Long Bank or Long Player Dragon that is at 8, 9, or 10 wins in a row. Those are Long Dragons that are very strong formations. You could even just look for 8's, 9's, or 10's only. BET WITH THE TREND. That means you have 6, 8, 11, 15, 20, and 27 unit bets (6 shots) of betting WITH a very strong formation AND being unlucky enough to pick the exact point that it chops to the other side winning.
If you want to be more conservative you could start your Long Dragon riding/ bail out after 4 or 5 losses in a row with 2 or 3 units. That would give 8-9 shots of having a Long Dragon continue or you have to be unlucky 8-9 times in a row to catch a Long Dragon breaking/ chopping to the other side right when you decide to bet WITH it.
Most active big houses should be fine with this progression up into the $1,000 - $2,000 unit range if they know you are your money is properly sourced.
One can do anything. If one can claim that they can going around and finding long dragon wins, there is no need for any type of progression. Flat betting will do fine. More than not, once you notice a long dragon, it ends. During my early years of playing this game, a buddy and I would play the cut after 6 or 7 streaks or chops. Of course we usually win and look good but on occasions we would look like idiots with people telling us to stop playing against it because you would only lose once. When we asked they people that follows the streak why they are losing overall when they would only lose once if they simply just follow. Not one of them can give an answer. I can almost bet everyone single on this forum has tried.
BaBu explained it reasonably well! As he touched on and what is 100% reality--that there is no magical answer to 'cut' or 'sticking with repeats' wagering, etc. It is a combination of lots of things that I have written about from psych reasoning to buy-in/bank roll reality, etc., but there is no iron-clad mechanical protocol for bet selection at baccarat--which includes using/deploying a progression or not.
Positive progression if used the right way (with win money) can make you lots of money. Negative progressions can and do lose players huge money that is all from there buy-in with the attempt to get even or make one unit as a norm, possibly more, etc.