Talk about a way to jinx yourself.  He might have some karma coming up.


Switch to the original source:

New York Post:
Boyfriend took ex's $500K casino winnings and 'upgraded': suit

https://nypost.com/2018/04/21/boyfriend-took-exs-500k-casino-winnings-and-upgraded-suit/

Many baccarat players think too much.  They think too much on the inside and they bring in too much from the outside.   Do you recall thinking that hard when you had some of your best sessions?  NO.

Gotcha had it right.

alrelax, Thank you for sharing this and other great insight to the game:

Baccarat Reality. H-Money loses $12K +. Proper Bankroll-Buy In & Frame-of-Mind
https://betselection.cc/baccarat-forum/baccarat-reality-h-money-loses-$12k-proper-bankroll-buy-in-frame-of-mind/


I will leave this open ended for you to comment on if you would like.

Players that are serious about baccarat want to get better is all aspects, but what are the best ways to prepare and train in your view?
- Play baccarat on-line which can be by yourself or others.
- Play with live cards by yourself or with others away from the real tables.
- Practice at a real house with no money or with very minimal size units.
- Other.

From your thread I see more and more it is the outside world pressure and a tendency for players to drift in their view of how good they are that are two of the top factors that can cause trouble.  That is, wrecked outside the house makes it very difficult to play successfully, and just like they speak of in poker, players who have experience tend to think their capabilities are much higher until they really do get sharp.


Thanks.

You present a statistically significant data set like one full month of all baccarat table activity at a major house (30 tables + consistently) that is conducted with a credible CPA firm counting every single buy in and cash out of every single player to play the game 24/7 and you will have a finding that is worth talking about.

IMO, there is not a house anywhere in the world that cares more than zero about what players are doing if they are playing properly, not raising red flags with gaming law, and their overall financials are staying in-line or improving, etc.  You will never get this information ever so you can save what you hear about in media articles/ mainstream views.  Let me know the next time you are in on an executive meeting with a gaming company along with their attorneys and CPA's or complete this type of research to get your 99.9%

A house could step in and confine or limit play, but table limits min/ max, and agreed upon arrangements such as private tables/ minimum buy-in tables, and so forth do just fine.

In the real world, executive managers, floor management, and dealers are looking to stay in line with sound operations and not permit activity that would get them on the bad side of gaming regulators.  For example, if a player comes in with $10,000 in $20's that will be flagged.  A lot more to this whole subject than that to the nth degree, but I play and I am so sick of this whole line of discussion.  And don't confuse this with their count/ money being off. Fairly sure that if $1.00 is unaccounted for, surveillance and management will be all over it.  Money is won/ lost in play not in unaccounted for ways.

But back to your 99.9%, as a nano/ micro level example, the house doesn't track whether 1 player loses $10,000 in a night or it was 7 so how are you going to get your numbers?  Go watch every player 24/ 7 for a month, start counting with your CPA team, take good notes, and report back.

And I will post again, this is a UNLV paper on hold percentages.  Why does it vary sharply?  Do you think UNLV is getting real numbers?

NEVADA TABLE GAMES:
HISTORICAL HOLD PERCENTAGE VARIATIONS
ANNUAL AND MONTHLY HOLD PERCENTAGES, 1992-2018
CENTER FOR GAMING RESEARCH, FEBRUARY 2018
http://gaming.unlv.edu/reports/nv_table_hold.pdf

Lastly, how can any casino go bankrupt or out of business?  After all with all those losers, they should have soooooooooooooooooooooooooo much money to cover all expenses, remodeling, and awesome PR and marketing to stay viable.  The best ever and finest of everything - all the Mad Men and consultants and experts that everywhere from Madison Avenue to academia to private firms can offer.  Because all players lose!!!!!  No rocket quants, gaming companies can make a stable return if they do everything correctly and the gaming industry dynamic is favorable to them.


How could this ever happen with all the losers?

Las Vegas Mega Flops: 3 Casinos That Squandered Away Billions
Sin City is not only a Mecca for gamblers, it's a magnet for big-pocketed investors who put billions into casino complexes... and occasionally lose their shirts.
Eric Volkman (TMFVolkman)
https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/11/02/las-vegas-mega-flops-3-casinos-that-squandered-awa.aspx


Echelon:



WYNN stock chart - looks like a straight line to me.  Just collecting from losers!!!! Simple!
https://www.investing.com/equities/wynn-resorts-ltd-chart

And double lastly, you just believe that casinos have weaponized psych warfare in their offering, marketing and PR that just draw so many suckers for most of modern history.  Or do actually think it could just be a little more complex than that?

And now I know why very few players talk about baccarat on-line. - 99.9% is 666 upside down, just for you.

Will be thinking about this song tonight while listening to the baccarat shoe as now I can not get it out of my head from a remix in a vid after a DJ Soda mix.  Thanks YouTube!

What is the baccarat shoe saying?
What is Bank saying?
What is Player saying?
Natural's?
Animals? Animal lines? Animal patterns?
Win differentials?
Bead Plate?
Big Road?
Macau Roads?


F this song - haha     SURPRISE - EUROPEAN.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jofNR_WkoCE

and some a bit better or not.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6fsiFYsDTy0

Specifically on drinks and baccarat.  Clarity, effective focus, and energy make win.  Being well rested, well fed, and well hydrated are part of it, but what is your drink of choice when playing.

I have been going with the following:
- Water.
- Coconut water.
- Red Bull because they totally refuse to stock other good hit like the Monster Rehab series.
- Coffee.  Their house coffee is so weak as well as their Starbucks so you have to get espresso to approach anything strong.

But.....   maybe Grey on ice will work because my second half's after break have sucked of late.  I see some players that do decently even though they are downing drinks at a good pace.

Don't talk about baccarat.  With how many players around the world play, seriously... WTH?




How in the hell else are you going to hop on the 7X



landing here



for dinner here



about 45 seconds in...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RaOnTQJkeaQ

I play at a top house.  Way killer, and their are great houses behind that.  But... as with many players, there is a strong influence that flows from mini and midi baccarat tables to manage and deal with.


Mini Baccarat
- More players countering each other which is good as opposed to bigger players being all dead wrong because of bad group think at midi tables.
- More high payout bet wins on average because more tables, means more great baccarat shoes, and more great baccarat shoes with a lot of high payout bet wins.
- Faster pace of play.  OMFG, the cards are already shuffled and cut.  You can not will a 4 sider to become a 9 if you need it!
- Faster pace of play means the win AND loss comes faster.
- Faster pace of play means less time to think if other players are pushing the pace.
- Lots of sharp and inexperienced players.
- Harder to bet big because you may be one of the bigger bets at the table.


Midi Baccarat
- If you have a good shoe and strong players that is a solid combination for success.
- More pressure and actual group think play which can be very bad if players are not doing well.
- Slower pace of play means the win AND loss usually comes slower so the pain of loss is easier to take?
- Slower pace of play means much more time to think, but that can be a negative.
- Lots of sharp and inexperienced players, but everyone looks more experienced playing bigger.
- Most players don't do a super long or annoying squeeze ritual.
- More fun if all the negatives are held in check and the winning performance is there.  There is nothing better in baccarat then being able to score at a midi (and by extension high limit table) with strong driving and players you know.
- Midi can be very quiet and slow at times.  That with the slow pace of play is a killer.  You will have many baccarat shoes going nowhere which means less great shoes.


I have really had a rough time betting the same way and playing the same way at each format.  That is, in my view, it is easier for a player to hand in the pocket and put up big bets at midi because players are betting bigger on average than mini.  However, there are frequently big, big players at mini also and hosted games allow sky high limits too.

Example (not me but just to show):
- Mini with bet sizes going up ranging from $10 - $100 and you step in and place $500).
- Midi with bet sizes going up ranging from $50 - $3,000 and you step in and place $500).  Feels more in-line/ better.  Fvck it, let's do this becomes the mindset when you have much bigger bets being placed.

I experience a difference.  But the game is the same.  The game is not the same.  I want to primarily play the mini tables because of the faster pace and less group think bias when it is wrong, but I do play differently on mini UNLESS there bigger players there too so maybe I just need to look for those situations...

Given Mayweather vs. McGregor tonight, especially for those in Las Vegas, expect a different guest demographic.  Many will be drinking a lot more than ever, and there should be a lot of unfamiliar faces.  Every guy will think they are either Mayweather or McGregor depending on their preference and the outcome. Just like New Year's Eve at the bars and clubs.

As someone who has been quick to go to guns on behalf of players and house staff, and now invited to stay sidelined in matters with very little latitude, be aware that the casino dynamic should be different.  For example a top baccarat player who chooses to play non-private will not say a damn thing about other bets, but you should expect someone who thinks they are a big swinging prick to be bitching and complaining all night aggressively as their stake gets killed.  They will be looking for an excuse to take it out on.

There is too much opportunity in the game to risk it on disruptions.  Let house staff and security step in.

You might also see more choppers who think a strong formation like a Long Dragon Tail can not occur. 

And BTW, MAYWEATHER FOR THE WIN.

It is staggering that in a competitive economy where most people believe and act in a manner where more money is better that so many here believe it is perfectly plausible for someone who is unintelligent as rocks with the worst starting point in life can fight their way into a multi-hundred million dollar pro ball contract against staggering odds, but players can't win at baccarat IN THE LONG RUN OF COURSE.

What would you say is the average duration of a baccarat shoe?

1. Mini with average number of players.
2. Mini with max players (players behind the seated ones).
3. Midi with average number of players.
4. Midi with max players (players behind the seated ones).

In either of these formats, one or a few players can crank up the speed of play by working with the dealers and setting the pace.  Alternatively, segments or an entire shoe can drag on when there are many, many players, etc.

It is important to estimate so that when you go to play, you can set your game plan accordingly.  Thanks.

You will find many elements of what a baccarat player does wrong in this movie even though the subject is sports betting.  There is so much wrong and some right in this movie that it is worthwhile for every baccarat player to watch.  In fact, this is almost a go to guide for observing and finding baccarat players on a floor that you can short (bet opposite).  Taking financial risk is taking financial risk.

Really some insane comments and concepts throughout.  Very surprising to see the financial trader make so much complete sense at times and then counter that with statements that make no sense at all.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbpSsEQL0ZY

Not sure what happened to other threads as nothing is coming up in the search, but this movie has a very good baccarat scene with a grand table.  It's on Amazon Prime. But I think I already found a BIG error in the translation of the scene.

YouTube is stepping up.  The real time updated stats on where bets are placed is very interesting...

croupiercasino at Mr. Green Casino - UK

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPWxpo0WJ1o


Live Casino Comparer at Mr. Green Casino - UK.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ff_f5bm6a8

I'm buying Versailles later today.

Shoe 1
WWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW

80 HANDS 80 WINS

WTF is the point of posting cryptic bull and cryptic descriptions of progressions like shoe results with no shoe and no bet selection?  Literally one of the biggest circle jerks wastes of time possible.  And then comments people start engaging on supposed informed discussion about it?  Makes complete sense.

Found it:

This is my parlay style, hey hey.
1-1-1-1-2-3-4-6-8-11-15-20-27 units bets
3-2-1-0-2-3-3-5-5-6-7-7-8 units profits


Still don't get it.

Bet 1 Unit and win = +1 with Total +1
Bet 1 Unit and win = +1 with Total +2
Bet 1 Unit and win = +1 with Total +3
For a Total of +3 

OR....

Bet 1 Unit and lose = -1 Total
Then bet 1 Unit and win all three times = +3
Adding together = +3 -1 = +2 Total

or Bet 1 Unit and lose = -2 Total
Then bet 1 Unit and 1 Unit and 2 Units and win all three times = +4
Adding together = +4 -2 = +2 Total


Let's start with that.  Is this correct or not?  A player is on a major losing streak and they will counter back with 3 straight wins? Thanks.

Change your latitude and look at the game in a new light.  Heavy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9b92C0-c0EI

Looking forward to reading your series alrelax.  In the mean time, cheers!

At what point do you realize that a playing session is going south hard?  The best playing sessions never really go to far in the negative.

Is your determination of a bad session developing based on a certain number of units in the negative or do you combine that with other factors such as how long you have been playing?

For example, if 1 unit is equal to $100 does your risk management
>  -$500
> -$1,000
> -$2,500
> - ?
> A percentage of Total Bankroll?

Very surprised at this point that this is not discussed more, but there is a credible possibility that players may be successful simply by following the lead of others.  There is consistent detailed talk of the importance of team work and camaraderie, but more specifically it is realistic to run into phenomenally skilled and/ or hot players whose strike rates under various conditions is off the charts.  Proof of being more than just hot for a short duration is supported by time over which the performance is sustained, and over multiple shoes/ tables, etc.  where the conditions of the shoe vary by enough.

Everyone can see everyone's bets, and everyone can monitor how each player is doing within reason.  It does take a certain amount of humility to accept that another player is just trouncing the shoe until they aren't and go along with even if you really don't understand their decision making process.

This has occurred several times in the past month or so, and to be playing in the midst of it was surreal.  Strike rates north of 80%...  I would attempt to determine their approach and compare it to what I see and wasn't catching it whereas I can typically identify when a player is using a similar look as I do.  As usual when you are on the right side it plays out like 'Yeah Bank you pulled a Natural 8, guess what Player Natural 9...'  blah blah blah, but win after win after win after win with some losses here or there.

What do you use while playing to improve your play?  Most players I see are not tracking everything to the nth degree on scorecards.  There are smart phone tracking apps like this for poker...

UPDATE Example:

- There are times where I am winning back and go to Bank/ Player only.  Sure enough a high payout bet hits.
- There are times where I think the Bank/ Player decision is very uncertain and I sideline.  Sure enough a high payout bet hits.
- There are times where I go with the majority even though the Derived Roads look rough and it would have been better to sideline and go high payout only.  This is not such a sure situation, but how aggressive you are should be somewhat of a function of where you are at with session P&L, etc.

I am sure that every player has a degree of making the same mistakes repeatedly

ili

Hit is about to go down at the tables.

   


http://www.iamili.com/index.html


It works - haha

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g82tUyukLck

Why do players play like this on a win back?  How do we capture this for consistent play?

Greatest Comeback in Football History (Led by Vick, Jackson, McCoy)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDTKfhGYwrU

Firm believer in play in the closest best action spot you can, but I've run across some cats that have ventured to exotic locales to play.  Looking out over the long term, what are some places that should be on the list that aren't so obvious?

Specifically, residing in an exotic region with much, much, much lower cost of living versus the US of RIPOFF that has access to active fair games may be just so much win...

First thoughts are Southeast Asia.

NAGAWORLD, CAMBODIA

We see them all of the time, and the play in hands after is very important.

BP
B
B
B
BBBBB



Which can then become:

BPBP...
BPB
B
B
BBBBB

BPBPB...
B  BP
B
B
BBBBB

BPB
B  B
B  B...
B
BBBBB


BPBPB...
B
B
B
BBBBB


BP
BP
BP
BPP...
BBBBB


I see a lot of players very aggressive right after that first breaking Player win, but maybe it's better to wait and see how things pan out.  The length of the original Long Dragon can be a factor - sometimes as short as 4,5,6....   10, 15, 20?