A lot has been posted by Alrelax and Gizmotron about how they win using their years of experience, knowledge of the game, situational awareness etc.

Others like Xander and Mike have posted that you need an edge.

I am not here to debate the merits of Alrelax and Gizmotron's methods, but I would like to explore Xander's and Mikes position of having an EDGE.

What is an EDGE?  Can you actually get an EDGE?  To me an EDGE would be something mathematical, statistical or physical that would turn the odds or probability in your favor.

Since each spin is independent you have the same chance (1/37) of hitting any number and getting paid 35-1 instead of 37-1, hence the Casino's edge.

So what can you do?  Simple:  DON'T' PLAY EACH SPIN.  Don't play the Casino's game.

Play GROUP OF SPINS.  As I posted in part 1:

https://betselection.cc/roulette-forum/use-math-to-beat-roulettebaccarat/

The VDW plays with a GROUP OF 9 spins, however it is complex and difficult to play.

Let's start with something easier to understand.

When you play with a GROUP OF SPINS a dependency can be created, they are no longer independent spins, thus you are no longer playing the Casino's game.

You might have heard the expression that the way to win is to play a game within a game.  In other words don't play the Casino's game, play your own game within the Casino's game.

What I like to explore are 3 different Group of Spins examples:

1.   Doublets fixed and it's effect.
2.   Doublets as a Game and it's effect
3.   Triplets as a  Game and it's effect




DOUBLETS FIXED AND IT'S EFFECT

Let's compare the single spin bet selection of FTL (Follow The Last) to the static Doublets  "RB".  Remember, RB is a fixed bet, it does not change.  RBRBRBRBRB.  It is non-random.

Playing Single Spin FTL you will have:

RRRRRRRRRR Long Win Streak on Red (you win 10 units)
BBBBBBBBBB Long Win Streak on Black (you win 10 units)
RBRBRBRBRB Long Loss Streak on Chops (you lose 10 units)
BRBRBRBRBR Long Loss Streak on Chops (you lose 10 units)

Playing Doublets fixed "RB"

RRRRRRRRRR Break Even Streak on Red (you win 0 units)
BBBBBBBBBB Break Even Streak on Black (you win 0 units)
RBRBRBRBRB Long Win Steak on chops (you win 10 units)
BRBRBRBRBR Long Loss Streak on chops (you lose 10 units)

Do you see the difference?  FTL has 4 Long Streaks and Group of 2 Spins RB has only 2 Long Streaks and 2 break even streaks, hence the fluctuations (swings in your bankroll) will be less and you are more likely to get a more Stable Bet Result.
Playing a fixed Doublet does not change the odds but it does change the fluctuation in your results. This is all I wanted to show you, ie, playing with a Group of Spins has an effect.  This is simply the first step to understanding my Group of Spins theory.

DOUBLETS AS A GAME AND IT'S EFFECT

Now let's take the Fixed Doublets and make it a Game (bet selection).

The Game will be to bet that the second spin in the Doublet will match the first spin. This is similar to FTL but it only applies every second spin, not every spin.  It too, is non-random.

So if first spin is a B we bet for another B to get BB, end of Game after 2 Spins.  If first spin is a R we bet R to get RR after 2 spins, end of Game.

If we got a BR or RB then we lose the Game.

I thought getting a BB or RR would be the same as getting an RB or BR.

I was wrong.

It takes an average of 4 Spins to get RB or BR while it takes an average of 6 spins to get either BB or RR.

The reason it takes longer is because there are no "overlapping" RR or BB.  For example if you have "RRRR".  If you are playing the Casino's game (every spin) you would have 3 Sets of RR (1&2 Spins, 2&3rd spins and 3rd&4th spins).

Playing our Game of Doublets you would only have 2 sets of RR (1st&2nd spin and 3rd & 4th spins). Remember the Game ends after the 2nd spin and a new Game begins on 3rd Spin.

Check out this YouTube for a more detailed explanation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SDw2Pu0-H4g

Now can you see how a Group of Spins can affect the outcome?  One would assume that RB and BR would have the same number of spins to complete as BB and RR but it is not so. This is another tool that may be used in your quest to beat roulette/baccarat.

TRIPLETS AS A GAME AND IT'S EFFECT

Here are the 8 possibilities for Triplets

RRR
BBB
RRB
RBR
RBB
BBR
BRB
BRR

The non-random Game will be as follows:

If the first spin is a "R", then we bet that the second spin in the Triplet will also be a "R". If the 2nd spin is an "R", we will bet the third spin to be a "R".

This Game eliminates 2 of the 8 Triplets, ie. BBB does not have an R and BBR has a R in the 3rd spin but that does not count as the Game ends on the 3rd spin.  This is the key, the Game ends after 3 spins.  This is your Game, you control what you want to do.

So we only have 6 Triplets to play with.  Remember we are only looking for an R to follow an R.
         Result    Fraction
BRB      B       0
RBB      B       0
BRR      R       1
RBR      B        0
RRB      RB       .5
RRR      RR       1
         Totals 2.5/6
   
One would expect a 50/50 (3/6) outcome but because we are playing our own Game (Group of 3 Spins) we can create a Bias or would we call this an EDGE?

Check out this visual explanation on You Tube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPZFQ6i759g

For those more mathematically inclined check out the attached PDF.

I hope I have been able to show you that a Group of 2 Spins (Doublets Fixed) did not change the odds but did change the fluctuation in results AND the same Group of 2 spins when played as a Game can have unequal outcomes AND finally that a Game (Triplets), a Group of 3 spins can show a bias or an Edge.

I trust this will give you a little more insight into how to use math and statistics to your benefit.

Cheers

Nick

Yes, I know, you have heard this before but let's explore this further.

For years I have heard that roulette/baccarat are random games and the best you can do is ride streaks, have a good time and maybe you will end up lucky and be ahead at the end of the day. Each spin is independent, past spins have no bearing, can't beat house edge, will lose in long run etc.

But what if the game was NOT RANDOM. What the heck am I talking about?

Yes, you can play roulette/baccarat Non Randomly.  There are 2 ways that I know of:

1.  PHYSICS: If the actual wheel is biased or there is a manufacturer defect, you can exploit this and more accurately predict what sector of the wheel the ball will drop in.  This is Non Random as it has absolutely no connection to the independent nature of each random spin.  It could care less. I don't think there are any biased shoes or are there?

2.  MATH:  The independent nature of each spin/hand has absolutely no effect on the laws of mathematics. 1 + 1  is always =2 no matter the dependency of the spin/hand.  This is Non Random.

Ok, let's get into the MATH part as this is what the thread is all about. 

Years ago I studied a Math Theorem called Van de Waerden Theorem(VDW) and dismissed it as I could not see any benefit.

Recently, a member (all thanks goes to Priyanka)  brought it up again and when I looked at with fresh eyes and more experience I thought, well maybe there is something to this after all.

I hate math so I will try and explain this as easy as I can.

VDW says that you will always and I mean ALWAYS have a winner in 9 spins/hands. We are discounting the Zero/Tie for now.

This has to happen, it is a proven mathematical theorem.  It is Non Random.

Here is the actual formula for those interested:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Van_der_Waerden%27s_theorem

What it boils down to is this:

In Roulette, either Red or Black is guaranteed to win in 9 spins.

In Baccarat, either Player or Banker is guaranteed to win in 9 hands.

That is the overview of using Math as a Non Random way to beat roulette/baccarat. 

More details and examples to follow in next thread.

Thanks
Nick

Attached is the EC Gap Module.  This is a fully functional tracker that can be played live, with live spins or RNG spins.

Each time you press function key F9 you will get 500 RNG spins.  At first, all I did was kept pressing F9 over and over again, while watching the graphs for each EC.

What I noticed that in every 500 spins (1 click of F9) I would see at least one of the EC that had a gap of 10 or higher.  I first tested betting every 6 gap for 8 spins with a martingale progression.  This means you could go to gap 14 (6 + before losing.  This started well but eventually the gaps were too unpredictable and not a long term winner.

Continuing to watch the graphs, I noticed that a gap of 10 or higher generally only occurred ONCE in the 500 spin session.  Rarely did it occur twice, but when it did, it was not back to back, there was always another gap in between.  Yes, I have seen 10 Reds followed by 1 Black followed by 10 Reds.  This will occur but very infrequently.

This is the system that this Gap Module is set to test.  Remember, I code mostly for bots and as such I do not mind not betting for 100 spins before placing a bet.  This may not be for B&M people unless they play this simultaneously  with other systems.

The first thing to do is enter the "Target Gap Size".  This is the gap size you wish to hit before betting.  So in my example above, we would enter 10.

The second thing to enter is the "Betting Gap Size".  After the Target Gap Size" has been hit, then you start to bet when you hit the next "Betting Gap Size".  If you enter a "Betting Gap Size" of 4, then we will start to bet on the first 4 gap that is spun.

The third thing to enter is "Maximum # of Spins to Bet".  This is how many spins you wish to bet for.  If you entered 8 with a "Betting Gap Size" of 4, then it will bet for a maximum of 12 gaps. (8 + 4).

Any other suggestions on how to attack the gaps in an EC Module will be appreciated and I will certainly try to code them as time permits.

Cheers

Nick

What is a Gap. 

A Gap is the number of spins between hits. If the number 35 is hit on Spin # 1 and again on Spin # 51, the Gap is 50. (51-1).  If Street # 10 is hit on Spin # 20 and again on Spin # 30, then the Gap is 10. (30-20).  In other words, it is how long a number (number set) sleeps between hits.

So What.  Is there any benefit to studying Gaps?

Well, Louis G. Holloway thinks so.  In his book  "Full Time Gambler" ,thanks XXVV for the information, he says he has made a "gap book".  He claims this
"greatly condensed the big run of numbers and put the whole thing into a new perspective or dimension.  Through this kind of work, one is able to learn the true value of patterns and to avoid being tricked by coincidence.  By plotting graphs from the total of each approach, we can determine the peak of each cycle--when to get in and when to get out.  Ridiculous, you say? They said that about the atomic bomb, television and the airplane, too.  I am not saying we know exactly when to pick up up a number or group of numbers.  What I am saying is that over the long range-period we can and do turn the percentage and improve cold selecting."

I am not sure what he means by  "condensing the big runs" or "determining the peak of each cycle" so I thought I would develop  "Gap Sheets" for each  for each module (number set) starting with the EC Gap Sheet, then as time permits,  Dozens/Columns,  Lines,  Streets, etc.

Each "Gap Sheet",  will allow you to conduct  your own tests.  It is hoped that someone may see a "pattern" or a path or something else that might give us an edge.

Each "Gap Sheet" will be a fully working Tracker so you can actually test live or RNG spins.  You will be able to select:

1.  The size of the Gap to test

2.  The number of spins you wish to bet

3.  Holloway's RF (Rise and Fall) Progression or a Progression Divisor system that I use which
includes flat betting.

4.  Profit Target and Stop Loss

Each Gap Sheet will also Graph each session, so you can see their peaks and valleys.

As each Gap Sheet will be a fully functional system,  I will post them in their respective sub boards.   See the sub board "Even Chances" for the first EC Module Gap Sheet which should be posted shortly.

Cheers

Nick