alrelax, Thank you for sharing this and other great insight to the game:

Baccarat Reality. H-Money loses $12K +. Proper Bankroll-Buy In & Frame-of-Mind
https://betselection.cc/baccarat-forum/baccarat-reality-h-money-loses-$12k-proper-bankroll-buy-in-frame-of-mind/


I will leave this open ended for you to comment on if you would like.

Players that are serious about baccarat want to get better is all aspects, but what are the best ways to prepare and train in your view?
- Play baccarat on-line which can be by yourself or others.
- Play with live cards by yourself or with others away from the real tables.
- Practice at a real house with no money or with very minimal size units.
- Other.

From your thread I see more and more it is the outside world pressure and a tendency for players to drift in their view of how good they are that are two of the top factors that can cause trouble.  That is, wrecked outside the house makes it very difficult to play successfully, and just like they speak of in poker, players who have experience tend to think their capabilities are much higher until they really do get sharp.


Thanks.

More discussion of percentages, bet size, etc. all throughout the forum, but as with many aspects of baccarat, there are older threads that are still around and buried deep into the list.

Quote from: 21 Aces on March 21, 2018, 08:00:27 PM
It is comments like this that set me off.  Pretty much nobody I play with talks about percentages unless it is on high payout bet allocation.  Whatever.

To clarify, there is a difference between decision making for oneself or in a group/ team and talk among players.  Common talk among players usually is in nominal amounts and percentages come up moreso on high payout bet talk.  For example, 'I am up $X,XXX or down $X,XXX or whatever numbers.  But if you are around other players for a long time, you already have an idea of where they are in terms of bet size/ buy-in's/ bank rolls.

(I should have been more clear on this --->>>)  Most are in some way making bet size decisions based on percentages of buy-in, bank roll, etc.  There are some players I see that ramp up or increase bet size far too aggressively.  There are many factors, but you can hit your stop on a session even if you are betting a conservative bank roll on every bet if you are striking poorly.

Back when I traded for a decent sized hedge fund, we used both percent allocation, but often nominal in terms of shares, bonds, contracts.  As long as things are grounded in a framework of risk management then ok.  We can list out the factors, but someone making 6 or 7 figures a year is going to most likely look at $10,000 differently than someone in the 5 figure range.

A good sign that a play will go wrong is when a player really increases their bet size on that hand that is taking on excessive risk.  I have already noted and posted a lot in the past about working with percentages which I do and I talk with other player about on the floor, but I don't extend it to say that players suck and those on Wall Street are rock stars because a lot on the street do suck or have an inside trading advantage.

Quote from: 8OR9 on March 20, 2018, 10:58:16 AM
I posted  the following comment a few days ago in another thread...........maybe we all can  avoid the mistakes Alrelax described above if we follow the following  advice.


"When asked how someone did today in speculating in the stock market, Forex or commodities, or a casino game such as baccarat dice or roulette, the amateur ( which includes 99.9% of the people in a casino), will respond saying that he made $ 200 or lost $ 400.

The intelligent, professional, speculator or gambler will say he won 2% of bankroll or 4 % of Total bankroll or lost 2% of bankroll or lost 4 % of Total bankroll"

It is comments like this that set me off.  Pretty much nobody I play with talks about percentages unless it is on high payout bet allocation.  Whatever.

At houses in my area nobody is getting tracked unless they get into areas required by gaming law.  This excludes a substantial amount of buy-in and cash out activity.

Yes people falter, but many out there seem to buy fake news, propaganda, and the rest hook, line, and sinker non-stop about who is good at what and performance.  They read some bullhit article from some jackass that has no idea what they are talking about and buy it.  These are the same people that can't believe the Vikings could mess up or that player didn't make a play as they sit on a Lazy-Boy watching from the sideline.

Just like you took the effort to so the research and confirm how much the Dark Wizard and his Black Riders actually play - ZERO.  So he and his merry band of bro's can just STFU and stick with their aspect of the game which is calculating game statistics which have ZERO bearing on the game as a player.

Baccarat and everything else should be what you can gain an advantage from and benefit from.  Pro/ non-pro are just titles, and the issue is much more complex.  I can see first hand that there is a component of player I have spent a hell a lot of hours with that are loaded to the hilt.  Some are well known figures in their field.  They don't play particularly well, but they have a good attitude towards the game.  I am sure of it 100% that they stake the strength and character they get from the game and apply it to their work, practice, or business ventures.  So let's say they lose $100,000 in a year playing baccarat, but added more than that in their job or whatever because they perform much better for playing baccarat, are they a loser?  Are they pro?

If a litigation attorney turns from a puppy into a pit bull by playing baccarat on the side. taking down much bigger cases because they have learned a lot about themselves under pressure and a lot more about people through the experience such that now their practice is at levels above, are they pro?


Here's a piece for all you that think there so many brilliant people on Wall Street, and I have substantial past experience on the street.  A lot of Wall Street, banking, and finance forever is excellent sales/ marketing/ PR.

Zero Hedge:
Study Reveals 95% Of Finance Professionals Can't Beat The Market

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-20/study-reveals-95-finance-professionals-can't-beat-market


'Here's an analogy, perhaps it's not perfect: Suppose you could be guaranteed to score in the 95th percentile on the LSAT, MCAT, GRE, or GMAT exam without studying for even one minute. Wouldn't that be appealing to most people compared to the alternative of spending a lot of time studying and probably getting a lower score?

If I can out-perform 95% of active managers with a Vanguard or Fidelity index fund for almost free (.04% expense ratio), that choice to me seems easy: go with index investing. As Bethany McLean wrote in Fortune "Building a portfolio around index funds isn't really settling for the average. It's just refusing to believe in magic."'

Manchester, you and others are welcome to send me private messages about the game.  Every long term track record is made up of actions and decisions made  in the short term.  That is what so many seem to be lost on.

If you search through this site you will find plenty of delusions about the long run.  If you are going to engage in something that has high risk/ reward or any level of that, you will experience a bad outcome if you do not do it correctly.


Michael Schumacher took high risk and built a remarkable career driving F1 only to be taken out by a skiing accident so remember that next time you cross the street.

4 years later: No word on F1 great Michael Schumacher's condition
Schumacher camp continues to keeps information in house
January 5, 2018

http://autoweek.com/article/formula-one/4-years-later-no-word-f1-great-michael-schumachers-condition

This whole line of discussion is such an insult to the gaming industry and the people that offer the games.  It's an insult to players that put in work as well.  You are either blind or the only casino you ever go to is reading some hithouse article about gaming.  How can you even look any of them in the eye?  A dealer floor manager/ executive manager or someone emptying the trash who has been serving the house for not 1, 5, 10, but we're talking decades at ridiculous hours to offer the game?

It's the 21st today.  Get your hit together, run your 'exercise' for the month of April and report back.  I want full details of your brilliant findings.

You present a statistically significant data set like one full month of all baccarat table activity at a major house (30 tables + consistently) that is conducted with a credible CPA firm counting every single buy in and cash out of every single player to play the game 24/7 and you will have a finding that is worth talking about.

IMO, there is not a house anywhere in the world that cares more than zero about what players are doing if they are playing properly, not raising red flags with gaming law, and their overall financials are staying in-line or improving, etc.  You will never get this information ever so you can save what you hear about in media articles/ mainstream views.  Let me know the next time you are in on an executive meeting with a gaming company along with their attorneys and CPA's or complete this type of research to get your 99.9%

A house could step in and confine or limit play, but table limits min/ max, and agreed upon arrangements such as private tables/ minimum buy-in tables, and so forth do just fine.

In the real world, executive managers, floor management, and dealers are looking to stay in line with sound operations and not permit activity that would get them on the bad side of gaming regulators.  For example, if a player comes in with $10,000 in $20's that will be flagged.  A lot more to this whole subject than that to the nth degree, but I play and I am so sick of this whole line of discussion.  And don't confuse this with their count/ money being off. Fairly sure that if $1.00 is unaccounted for, surveillance and management will be all over it.  Money is won/ lost in play not in unaccounted for ways.

But back to your 99.9%, as a nano/ micro level example, the house doesn't track whether 1 player loses $10,000 in a night or it was 7 so how are you going to get your numbers?  Go watch every player 24/ 7 for a month, start counting with your CPA team, take good notes, and report back.

And I will post again, this is a UNLV paper on hold percentages.  Why does it vary sharply?  Do you think UNLV is getting real numbers?

NEVADA TABLE GAMES:
HISTORICAL HOLD PERCENTAGE VARIATIONS
ANNUAL AND MONTHLY HOLD PERCENTAGES, 1992-2018
CENTER FOR GAMING RESEARCH, FEBRUARY 2018
http://gaming.unlv.edu/reports/nv_table_hold.pdf

Lastly, how can any casino go bankrupt or out of business?  After all with all those losers, they should have soooooooooooooooooooooooooo much money to cover all expenses, remodeling, and awesome PR and marketing to stay viable.  The best ever and finest of everything - all the Mad Men and consultants and experts that everywhere from Madison Avenue to academia to private firms can offer.  Because all players lose!!!!!  No rocket quants, gaming companies can make a stable return if they do everything correctly and the gaming industry dynamic is favorable to them.


How could this ever happen with all the losers?

Las Vegas Mega Flops: 3 Casinos That Squandered Away Billions
Sin City is not only a Mecca for gamblers, it's a magnet for big-pocketed investors who put billions into casino complexes... and occasionally lose their shirts.
Eric Volkman (TMFVolkman)
https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/11/02/las-vegas-mega-flops-3-casinos-that-squandered-awa.aspx


Echelon:



WYNN stock chart - looks like a straight line to me.  Just collecting from losers!!!! Simple!
https://www.investing.com/equities/wynn-resorts-ltd-chart

And double lastly, you just believe that casinos have weaponized psych warfare in their offering, marketing and PR that just draw so many suckers for most of modern history.  Or do actually think it could just be a little more complex than that?

And now I know why very few players talk about baccarat on-line. - 99.9% is 666 upside down, just for you.

What is a pro player?  Someone who only makes money playing at what income level per month?  Maybe some baccarat players and poker players are find with making enough to live comfortably and cover their expenses.  Maybe a pro is only someone who makes what amount per year?  I would rather be exclusive pro than where I am now, and I will be someday.  The casino is an office just like any other high risk/ reward venture is.  Digging ditches or being homeless with no prospect to live and starving and freezing every day and a million other things are harder than baccarat.

Most athletes that make the top level of their game are very good.  I have already posted to the nth degree how star NBA players made their game on their predecessors and worked their a$$ off to do it on top of their raw potential.  There are a lot of themes to who does well in sports, especially in the NFL.  There are some teams that are terrible year in and year out - forever.  A lot of pro sports are rigged - plenty of evidence. 

1 second search:

New York Times:
Fixed Soccer Matches Cast Shadow Over World Cup
A New York Times investigation of match fixing ahead of the last World Cup gives an unusually detailed look at the ease with which professional gamblers can fix matches. READ PART 2
By DECLAN HILL and JERÉ LONGMANMAY 31, 2014

https://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/01/sports/soccer/fixed-matches-cast-shadow-over-world-cup.html


I look to any area of high performance/ high risk to learn from.   I haven't heard an interview from a rapper/ hip-hop artist I don't think ever that does not talk about how much other talent there is and how they are so blessed to be rewarded at the levels they are financially from it.  More relevant is probably drawing from poker players to strengthen what baccarat players tend to be weak in.



If someone who isn't familiar with baseball doesn't know what 'knock it out of the park' means, I will find a kick a$$ video to show. The fact they are conversing in a 2nd or 3rd language shows they are smart.

People vilify casinos as evil when they offer one of the fairest propositions around.   All of mankind has been built on slavery, debt slavery, or other forms of domination throughout history.

Actually quite laughable that so many are blinded to this.  The lies and propaganda own you, pawn.


Best regards,

Fellow pawn

Complete morons make a hell a lot of money playing professional ball and a number of a billion things in life.  Go ask an executive casino manager about hold percentages, number of winners, the long run, and who win and who doesn't.  Surprisingly, many that play discount the impact or infrequent players or players that come in and take massive, not massive, but MASSIVE LOSS.

The 'in the long run', everyone loses, baccarat is so hard line of thinking is great on paper!  I equalled or bettered what most on Wall Street can not do in a year last night.  It was so boss on a percentage basis too!  And I won so I guess their 'in the long run' snipers will be gunning for me and everyone else tonight. 

Actually it is better going through life believing that you won't succeed or that it is impossible.  I mean that are such great prospects for everyone out there with a the great professions out there an no executives, boards, and AI/ machines looking to eliminate all of them.

More later.  Knock it out of the park like a home run in baseball...

To the other conversation going.  If someone has a $100 bank roll.  ONE HUNDRED DOLLARS. And they work with percentages, and they make one net $10 winning gain per year, they have already beaten most professionals on Wall Street  hands down.  10% return in one year...

Now make it $1,000,000 where they make $100,000 over the course of a year.  That is 10%.  The ideal is to be in that large bank roll position where you can have a serious 5 or 6 figure bank roll minimum and they tight, controlled play still produces win that is relevant in our economy.  Everything is very expensive and not sure about other regions, but in my area there are a lot of baccarat players and poker players grinding win on a pro or semi-pro basis.

There is no long run.  Long run and huge numbers are for the casino to manage.  That is a much different position.  Our long run is the sum of every minute played.  We have to play in a manner that exploits variance.  For example, if you catch a strong trend or key high payout bet win, the casino is not going to force you to keep playing.  A player can stop at any time, and many use sharp upside variance to stop out.  The only thing they could do is throw a bunch of alcohol, drugs, kitty, food, other comp's etc. or have your jet break down just like Hollywood shows it to make it inviting for you to continue to play.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s03AuoQkjZs

99.9% of players in a casino are not amateur.  Not even close.  That is the kind of bull that the Dark Wizard and his Black Riders love to talk about in their work even though they don't play. 

Working with percentages is very helpful to put things in perspective, but most people don't constantly refer to a calculator or do the math based on percentages while playing.   Percentages are extremely important when allocating to high payout bets.

Most players are not looking to beat the financial markets, but are much more aggressive.  Here's how a bunch of overpaid professional investors have done of late - terrible:

CNBC:  The Buffett Challenge, hedge funds vs. index funds, 9 years on
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/09/buffett-challenge-hedge-funds-vs-index-funds-9-years-on.html


Even the insiders that closely follow Warren Buffet have found that it Berk's insurance and reinsurance businesses that have bailed out his investing several times.

A huge part of baccarat is being able to make a relevant amount of money that is produced by tight play.  A lot of players are trying to knock it out of the park based on their bank roll.

I know...

I jumped around last night again after a fast start. I missed several good runs by dissenting.  We throw away and disengage a lot.  My house has over 50 tankless going right now and every house I stop by to watch in the middle of the day for 20-30 minutes...  FULL.

IMO, Vegas is yesterday and many cities have better gaming.