Bump

So there is more weight being added to having a baseline bet size at 1% or less of risk capital to play.

Baccarat Online 3D (Free) has become Dragon Ace Casino (Free)

It would be very helpful to get more takes on the degree of difficulty of the game.  Thanks.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-pD5yqtHCo

I need to pay more attention.  Thanks for noting what Al Krigman stated:

'In practice, survival usually takes priority over win goals. Say a person bets the same amount every round, and wants to be 85 percent sure of weathering the downswings of a normal four hour session -- about 600 rounds. Ignoring Player-Banker differences and avoiding Tie, risk of ruin analysis shows this can be done betting 2.3 to 2.4 percent of initial bankroll per round.'

600 rounds in 4 hours is a private table, breathing down dealers' neck pushing them the whole time, race speed play non-stop not a 'normal four hour session'.  If one pays attention, it is easy to tell who plays and who doesn't.  It is possible to arrange for speed play, but it would make sense to be tipping dealers for dealing so fast.

Gaming Gone Insane - Baccarat Edition
http://betselection.cc/baccarat-forum/gaming-gone-insane-baccarat-edition/


Although there is cheating and rigging that occurs, the clear majority of houses are completely fair in all aspects.  It completely redlined me after the Vegas incident that some aspects of the media went zero to blaming the gaming industry in 3 seconds for everything that happened.  'Nobody ever wins, and casinos are just a vehicle for money laundering, and...'.

It's like getting furious with a ski resort for having double diamond + ski runs.  Maybe I should go over to the Dark Wizard's joint and make a few notes.   

Given most players should be playing for profit as opposed to fun, you would think there are more talking about the game.  Poker and games of chance have open ended potential, and most with experience would agree that a lot of the difficulties come from self as opposed to the game.

Thank you Sputnik for this note.

___________________

Can you please clarify if he is speaking about profit/ loss from each hand here:

For example 20 + 20 +20 +20 +20 has been achieved with 50 + 100 + 80 + 120 + 100  The final destructive act is a 100  that does not recover .
Even without a progression 100 absorbs the 5  sets of 20 + wins.

I call this the 20/100 flaw.

20 is therefore 20% of 100.
A good result by any standards.



That is
Hand 1 = +$20
Hand 2 = +$20
etc.

Then a much bigger bet of $100 that loses will wipe out a lot of lower sized wins?  Because if that is the case, isn't the player winning the other larger bets listed?

___________________


I have been looking at positive progression with ranges of 1 - 3 units with moreso 1 - 1.5 units.  I think it is important to look at the specific hand and make a judgement.  For example, if you have a set positive progression approach and it calls to go big on a very uncertain hand, then you have a choice to make.  Go big on a highly uncertain hand or wait for a hand that looks better.

Don't talk about baccarat.  With how many players around the world play, seriously... WTH?




How in the hell else are you going to hop on the 7X



landing here



for dinner here



about 45 seconds in...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RaOnTQJkeaQ

Quote from: 21 Aces on September 04, 2016, 12:17:14 AM
How Much Should You Bet at Baccarat?
By Alan Krigman

'Unfortunately, the bankroll sufficiency and win goal criteria conflict with one another.'

http://krigman.casinocitytimes.com/article/how-much-should-you-bet-at-baccarat-5470

Does anyone have more in depth information on this?  Comments?


The following players seem to have the following logic:  ALMOST EVERYONE

- I make $25/ hour on average working.
- Major banks are paying 0.01% Annual Percentage Yield.
- Long term investments in the financial markets should make 3-5% per year - maybe better.
- With a $1,000 I should make $2,000 - $3,000 in 4-6 hours playing baccarat.


Most experienced players have performed like the last bullet at times, but also experienced very rough sessions.  In the outside world of institutional investments in the financial markets, commercial real estate, etc., it's all about consistency of returns and safety of principle...

alrelax, thanks very much.  Right now unless I link directly to the top thread under Baccarat directly, the site won't link.

Two consistent bad signs on a hand:
- A player places an outsized larger bet.  For example, they are typically betting $1,000 and they go $5,000 ++ because this hand looks very good.
- A player has some type of problem where the dealer/ and or floor manager get involved, and there is a delay in the game.
- A player is betting in-line with everyone, but they say something striking against that position.

Waiting for full access to come back on-line for me.

The only thing worse than the pikers over at the Dark Wizard's forum who like to scour Vegas for slot machines with edge due to some imaginary technical glitch that will produce win are some of the seven year old's here.

Baccarat has many ways to play, and there is so much right there to be had if we can manage to take it.  At my house a see some very experienced players at a lower level of play stakes wise than the past, and many that have been grinding it out there day in and day out playing at much, much bigger levels now.  There is a lot to the game.

I play at a top house.  Way killer, and their are great houses behind that.  But... as with many players, there is a strong influence that flows from mini and midi baccarat tables to manage and deal with.


Mini Baccarat
- More players countering each other which is good as opposed to bigger players being all dead wrong because of bad group think at midi tables.
- More high payout bet wins on average because more tables, means more great baccarat shoes, and more great baccarat shoes with a lot of high payout bet wins.
- Faster pace of play.  OMFG, the cards are already shuffled and cut.  You can not will a 4 sider to become a 9 if you need it!
- Faster pace of play means the win AND loss comes faster.
- Faster pace of play means less time to think if other players are pushing the pace.
- Lots of sharp and inexperienced players.
- Harder to bet big because you may be one of the bigger bets at the table.


Midi Baccarat
- If you have a good shoe and strong players that is a solid combination for success.
- More pressure and actual group think play which can be very bad if players are not doing well.
- Slower pace of play means the win AND loss usually comes slower so the pain of loss is easier to take?
- Slower pace of play means much more time to think, but that can be a negative.
- Lots of sharp and inexperienced players, but everyone looks more experienced playing bigger.
- Most players don't do a super long or annoying squeeze ritual.
- More fun if all the negatives are held in check and the winning performance is there.  There is nothing better in baccarat then being able to score at a midi (and by extension high limit table) with strong driving and players you know.
- Midi can be very quiet and slow at times.  That with the slow pace of play is a killer.  You will have many baccarat shoes going nowhere which means less great shoes.


I have really had a rough time betting the same way and playing the same way at each format.  That is, in my view, it is easier for a player to hand in the pocket and put up big bets at midi because players are betting bigger on average than mini.  However, there are frequently big, big players at mini also and hosted games allow sky high limits too.

Example (not me but just to show):
- Mini with bet sizes going up ranging from $10 - $100 and you step in and place $500).
- Midi with bet sizes going up ranging from $50 - $3,000 and you step in and place $500).  Feels more in-line/ better.  Fvck it, let's do this becomes the mindset when you have much bigger bets being placed.

I experience a difference.  But the game is the same.  The game is not the same.  I want to primarily play the mini tables because of the faster pace and less group think bias when it is wrong, but I do play differently on mini UNLESS there bigger players there too so maybe I just need to look for those situations...

Starting to see that warm-up and post play training have more and more value.

Warm-up
The game does not have an ability to care what is going on in our world.  That is, everyone shows up to play at a certain day and time, and the number of tables and nature of every game may be this or that, but they are all live whether you are ready or not.  Thinking that a series of $0 bets or low amount bets with maximum effort are a good approach to getting back in the cockpit.  The upside is that a player can get back into a strong performance position, and the downside is the player goes redlined if they do well with zero or small small.

Post Play Training
Post play training can be allocating a certain amount of win to playing at a table really working hard to eliminate all real play weaknesses.  This may be best at a table by yourself so there are no other players to influence.  For example, if you are up $1,000 on the session, you could allocated $200 to play like this and improve.

Training
Training anytime should be a benefit if you take it seriously.  This can include training in a knock out situation, strong up session, and everywhere in between.


Also, after so much experience playing, it is very difficult to understand what it is that makes a strong run of wins.  Most experienced players will run into losing streaks and other times go on can't lose streaks.

After multiple sessions with hand shuffled baccarat shoes, I would argue to the nth degree that the game is absolutely different.  Dealers can never approach the thorough and fair level of the shuffle of a baccarat shoe achieved by a Shuffle Master system or equivalent with a fair cut and burn cards process.  Furthermore, you will most likely have a huge disparity in the level of quality of shuffle completed by different dealers.  That is, even though they are all supposed be using the same approach, many dealers will suck at it.  If a dealer goes through the process and cards are grouped/clumped together at times, it may look like they are doing a good enough job to players, floor managers, and surveillance, but they are not.   Baccarat is difficult enough without having to think or attempt to track which dealers may or may not being doing a good job shuffling as dealers are typically rotated in an out frequently.  But there may be an edge in the game created by this.  Who knows.

From what I have directly experienced, a hand shuffled baccarat shoe will most likely have a higher number of natural 7's, natural 8's, and natural 9's.  Why?  Think about how a deck of cards arrives from the manufacturer.  And what does a higher number of naturals do for a baccarat game with high payout bets?  IT TAKES THEM OUT. Naturals also take out the hand right away with it more likely that less cards are dealt.  There is no 'reduce' card for that side so many hands will be a knock out right from the start.  I really have to go through the homework and check the posted stats as my house has both, but I noticed the difference in the section that changed to hand shuffle that night 100%.  More Player natural 7's for sure.  But these hand dealt baccarat shoes are still resulting in the same number of high 70's/ low 80's hands results.

On the other hand a shuffle machine will slice, dice, and mince cards randomly in a thorough way and with the fair cut and burn card process, it produces a better result.  Baccarat shoes with the right shuffle and cut that result in a well above average amount of high payout bet wins did so because that process lined everything up just right and there are most likely average or below average naturals.

Every baccarat shoe will be unique with either approach, but at this point I have lost all confidence in playing hand shuffled games.  The house has a view that there is no difference, and that should speak volumes.

I have no relationship and never have had any relationship with Shuffle Master or any other gaming system company other than as a player.

Thanks.  I still like the Shuffle Master or equivalent as the number one option.